The Brewers have settled on a 2019 salary with infielder Hernan Perez, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll earn $2.5MM, just a bit under the $2.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected.
More to come …
By Jeff Todd | at
The Brewers have settled on a 2019 salary with infielder Hernan Perez, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll earn $2.5MM, just a bit under the $2.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected.
More to come …
By Jeff Todd | at
While other major rumors swirl, the Mets appear to have a line open with other organizations regarding power righty Noah Syndergaard. Chatter on Thor has been percolating for some time now, but there’s increasing indication that the Mets actually prefer to move the franchise cornerstone.
Indeed, the New York org is “motivated” to move on from Syndergaard, according to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (Twitter link), with the organization said to be reaching out to rivals to gauge interest. As others have suggested, the Mets would then anticipate turning around and bringing in another starter via free agency.
It remains somewhat unclear precisely why the Mets have determined that trading Syndergaard is the right course, but new GM Brodie Van Wagenen is clearly out to re-shape the roster. That the big righty is a former Van Wagenen client only adds to the intrigue. In any event, there’ll be no shortage of suitors. When healthy, Syndergaard is a monster on the mound and a rather marketable asset to boot.
The rival club most frequently tied to Syndergaard of late is the Padres. As Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though, the San Diego outfit is not only unwilling to part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., but won’t part with MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias, either. It seems that the Friars are more amenable to discussing other prospects, though it’s arguable there are a few others who are or ought to be just as untouchable as that trio.
Otherwise, the Brewers are now a team to watch on Syndergaard, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv. Their level of interest isn’t clear, but it’s obviously not hard to imagine the Milwaukee org liking the idea of placing Thor atop their rotation. The Reds and Yankees, however, are not involved in the pursuit.
As for the Mets’ apparent plan to add another arm if they move Syndergaard, it’s anyone’s guess how that’ll play out. Certainly, with other moves afoot that’d add salary, this approach would indicate a real willingness to boost the payroll. Just how far, though, remains to be seen. The top-available pitchers would require significant contracts. Other, lesser hurlers are obviously under consideration — Mike Puma of the New York Post cites Gio Gonzalez on Twitter — but assuredly will not bring Syndergaard’s upside and will still out-earn him in 2019 (he’s projected at just $5.9MM).
By Jeff Todd | at
With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, there’s a “strong possibility” the Brewers will non-tender infielder Jonathan Schoop, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). A trade route is also possible, per the report; the takeaway, regardless, is that the Milwaukee organization seems to be preparing to move on.
That’d be a tough pill to swallow, given that the Brewers acquired Schoop just last summer in anticipation of a turnaround. That did not come to pass late in 2018, and evidently the organization isn’t all that optimistic that the bounce back will occur in the season to come. Or, at least, it’s not willing to pay what it’ll take to find out.
[RELATED: Projecting Payrolls: Milwaukee Brewers]
In his final season of arbitration eligibility, MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project, Schoop will take down something on the order of $10.1MM. That’s an easy payday to commit to for the 2017 version of Schoop. He slashed a robust .293/.338/.503 with 32 long balls and turned in solid defensive work, making him a comfortably above-average regular.
Last year, though, the bottom dropped out. While he continued his solid glovework, and even showed that he can handle shortstop, Schoop’s bat fell apart. He still had good power, but ended the season with only a .233/.266/.416 slash.
The difference on the stat sheet primarily comes down to quality of contact. Schoop’s batting average on balls in play plummeted from .330 in 2017 to .261 last year. Since he rarely walk, that devastated his on-base percentage. And it’s hard to chalk it up to bad luck, as Statcast actually suggests he enjoyed good fortune (.290 wOBA vs. .266 xwOBA).
If the Brewers do indeed pull the plug, it’ll reflect not only their feelings about Schoop, but also of the remainder of the market. The organization may anticipate better opportunities to improve its infield mix; after all, at second base especially, there are numerous open-market and trade options. With other needs to address as well, and perhaps not a lot of available money to work with, there certainly could be an opportunity for the Brewers to add a solid second base asset at a lower price — or even to pursue other, more creative roster tweaks.
By Rob Huff | at
As we kick off the ninth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.
Today, we examine a club whose rebuild exploded in 2018, propelling them to a surprising division championship and baseball’s final four: the Milwaukee Brewers.
Team Leadership
As many longtime baseball fans know, the predecessor to current Commissioner Rob Manfred, Bud Selig, spent 28 years as owner of the Brewers franchise prior to ascending to the commissioner gig. Formed in 1969, the franchise spent one disastrous season in the Pacific Northwest as the Seattle Pilots before Selig purchased the team out of bankruptcy and moved them to Milwaukee. Selig’s daughter, Wendy, became the team owner in 1998 when Selig became the full-time commissioner. In September 2004, Wendy sold the team to businessman Mark Attanasio, the club’s current owner. After making just two playoff appearances in the 36 years from 1969-04, the team has made three postseason trips during Attanasio’s ownership, including two trips to the National League Championship Series in 2011 and 2018.
The team’s front office is headed by general manager David Stearns, who took the job in September 2015 at age 30. The franchise has enjoyed tremendous growth under Stearns, winning 68 games before he arrived in 2015, then 73, 86, and finally 96 in the three seasons that followed. Last winter’s acquisitions of Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, and Most Valuable Player Christian Yelich paved the way for greatness in Milwaukee.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Brewers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. For the Brewers, this time frame perfectly covers Attansio’s ownership tenure. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
Attanasio inherited some bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls, but quickly increased spending in a big way upon taking over the club. Spending has continued on a relatively clean trajectory without any significant increases.
2016-17 stick out for the opposite reason as spending cratered while Stearns rebuilt the franchise. When the club showed significant (and somewhat unexpected) progress in 2017, Attanasio OK’d a return to something close to pre-rebuild spending levels.
The above chart conveys team spending pretty well as the Brewers haven’t endeavored on significant international acquisitions, either via international amateur bonuses or posting fees for negotiating rights with foreign professionals, and the club has never come close to luxury tax territory.
Future Liabilities
For a small market team, the Brewers have committed a good fit of payroll space moving forward.
Braun has long been the face of the franchise, though surely he ceded a good bit of that status to the stars that follow him on the team’s payroll chart, Cain and Yelich. Braun will receive $1.8 million per year from 2022-31 in deferred salary, but that amount won’t handcuff the team now or in the future.
The Yelich deal provides some of the greatest value of any contract in all of Major League Baseball. That should help keep the Brewers competitive given the immensity of their savings over Yelich’s market value.
The remaining commitments are all quite safe as the team has only $1.5 million guaranteed beyond 2019 for Thames, Chacin, Anderson, Jeffress, and Albers combined. Thames, Anderson, and Jeffress are all controllable further via bargain-rate club options.
While the guarantees feature much of the Brewers core, the team’s arbitration-eligible players include numerous contributors, a couple of them essential to the team’s renaissance. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):
The Brewers feature numerous non-tender candidates. The biggest decision involves Schoop, a 27-year-old second baseman who starred for the Orioles in 2017 with average on-base skills and 32 long balls on the heels of a 25-homer season in 2016. Schoop’s offense cratered in 2018 as his BABIP dropped to .261 after he posted a composite BABIP of .319 from 2015-17. Schoop presumably had a chance to play his way into a big payday with the Brew Crew, but a putrid .202/.246/.331 batting line after his acquisition likely sealed his fate as a non-tender, especially given the presence of near-Major League-ready stud prospect Keston Hiura and fully-Major League-ready prospect Mauricio Dubon, despite his knee injury. The decisions on Kratz, Perez, Jennings, and Saladino are comparatively much less impactful to the budget, even for a team with a smaller spending capability such as Milwaukee. Kratz in particular was one of the great stories of the 2018 postseason. As it turns out, despite the presence of solid prospect Jacob Nottingham ready for a meaningful role and Pina around (discussed below), the team agreed to a $1.2 million deal to avoid arbitration, less than the $1.7 million for which Kratz was projected but a salary figure at which he has a much better chance to stick around.
On the other hand, many of the other names in the arbitration table are of the impact variety. Shaw has proven to be the team’s third-best regular, solidifying the third base spot. Knebel forms an elite bullpen triumvirate with Jeffress and fireballing lefty Josh Hader. Guerra provided 141 roughly average innings in 2018. Santana regressed markedly in 2018, but there’s still significant power in his bat and, if nothing else, he provides a strong bench bat at a cheap rate. Pina is a strong defensive catcher with a bit of power on a bargain deal.
Nelson merits separate mention. He missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury, but that came on the heels of him making an ace turn in 2017. If Nelson returns at something close to his pre-injury form, the Brewers will enjoy a marquee addition for just $3.7 million. The rich keep getting richer.
Davies merits his own paragraph for largely the same reason. He compiled 5.3 WAR across 2016-17 before being felled by a shoulder injury that cost him most of 2018 and sapped his effectiveness when he did pitch. Nevertheless, Davies is yet another cheap rotation option.
Milwaukee is brimming with cheap, controllable talent that should help them compete into the next decade.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
Following the season, Stearns hinted that spending won’t increase in 2019 to nearly the extent that it did prior to 2018. That doesn’t qualify as much of a surprise given the bare-bones payroll employed in 2017 and the competitive number utilized in 2018. Stearns called a repeat offseason “unrealistic” at the beginning of November.
It doesn’t seem as if management is expecting a huge influx of cash, at least not publicly.
Are the Brewers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
No.
Not in the Milwaukee market. Not with bottom-five payrolls every year. Not with so many big-market clubs competing to sign Harper and Machado.
Milwaukee isn’t going to be in these conversations.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
This is a really important consideration for the Brewers. With so many significant players entering arbitration, they need to find a bit more cash to keep this core together for the coming years or Stearns will need to be especially creative in moving the right arbitration-eligible starting-caliber players for cheaper reinforcements.
Even assuming that the Brewers take the most aggressive non-tender approach that is plausible, cutting ties with Schoop, Perez, Jennings, and Saladino, the team would enter the offseason with $95.1 million committed to the roster, $4.1 million more than last year’s Opening Day payroll. Making any additions will require Stearns to expend some currency.
According to MLB.com, the team’s top seven prospects and 10 of the top 11 are position players. If the club makes a big expenditure, expect to see them focus on pitching.
Given where Milwaukee is on the win curve and how seriously they curbed spending while rebuilding, it’s reasonable to expect Attanasio to authorize a new franchise-high Opening Day payroll. But by how much? I’ll guess that payroll increases enough for everyone to notice but not so much that it stuns the baseball world.
With the projected payroll space below and an entirely right-handed rotation, don’t be surprised if Milwaukee makes a play for a free agent starter like J.A. Happ. If payroll is a bit tighter than expected, perhaps Wade Miley or a reunion with Gio Gonzalez make more sense.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $110 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $14.9 million
By Jeff Todd | at
The Brewers announced today that they have avoided arbitration with catcher Erik Kratz. The deal promises him $300K and provides a $1.2MM salary in the majors, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).
Kratz had been projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.7MM through the arbitration process. The team understandably wasn’t interested in paying quite that amount, so instead worked out an agreement that will provide Kratz more certainty than the standard arb contract (which promises only thirty days of salary as a starting point) but will limit what he can earn if he sticks on the MLB roster.
The 38-year-old Kratz did not even touch the majors until he was already in his age-30 season. He has now appeared in nine-consecutive MLB campaigns, though he also hasn’t generally commanded much of an opportunity to play.
It came somewhat out of the blue, then, when the Brewers acquired Kratz in the middle of the 2018 campaign and installed him as a not-infrequently-used backup. He ended up striding to the plate 219 times, one more than his previous season high (2013, with the Phillies).
Certainly, the results on offense weren’t much different than might have been expected. Kratz produced a meager .236/.280/.355 slash, which maps to a 70 wRC+ — only marginally better than his career 65 wRC+.
Of course, there’s quite a bit more than hitting to the job of a reserve catcher. Kratz excelled at framing pitches and smothering balls in the dirt, while also drawing plaudits from the Milwaukee organization for his game calling, work ethic, and clubhouse presence.
Clearly, the club valued what he brought to the table. After seeing MLB action with seven teams, then, it seems Kratz has found something of a home. Whether he’ll open the season on the active roster, and if so whether he’ll last, remains to be seen. But it’s still a continuation of a great story for a respected veteran grinder.
By Jeff Todd | at
The Giants are “willing to engage” with rival organizations on trade scenarios involving star lefty Madison Bumgarner, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not yet clear just how likely it is that the San Francisco organization will actually move one of its best-loved and most-accomplished players.
Bumgarner is a living baseball legend, owing less to his years of excellent regular-season service than to his incredible postseason feats. The version of the burly southpaw that owned the 2014 World Series will live on no matter the course of the remainder of his career. But after the two seasons he just endured, with a shoulder injury seeming to sap his strength, it’s at best questionable whether the Giants’ staff ace can still deliver a vintage performance.
While front office opinions on the matter no doubt vary, numerous teams figure at least to check in on the lefty. Three, at a minimum, have done so already, according to Morosi. The Brewers and Phillies “have had at least preliminary dialogue,” he writes, while the Braves “checked in” but do not appear to be engaged at the moment.
It’s said that newly installed Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is angling for young pitching in a deal, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to get any top-flight arms. After all, the upside here is limited by the fact that Bumgarner is one season away from free agency. His $12MM contract is plenty reasonable despite the questions, and the possibility of a qualifying offer (or even an extension) hold out hope for some future value. But the unanswered questions create significant downside, even on a single-season commitment.
At base, acquiring Bumgarner would mean buying a pitcher who has been a solid, not terribly durable performer over the past two seasons. He certainly did what he could to make it back from a shocking early-2017 dirt bike accident, and has somehow maintained a 3.29 ERA since the start of that ill-fated campaign, but it’s hard to look past the warning signs.
Before the injury, the now-29-year-old hurler had been good for about a strikeout per inning with two or fewer walks per nine innings, and a total of 200+ frames per season. He had run up four-straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, with peripherals that largely matched, all before his near-unimaginable playoff heroics. At his best, Bumgarner drew swings and misses at more than an 11 percent clip while allowing hard contact on less than a third of the balls put in play against him.
Operating at less than full capacity last year, Bumgarner’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9.2% and his K%-BB% dropped to 12.0%. (He had once sat at over a 10 percent K%-BB% for three-straight seasons.) And his hard-hit rate ballooned to 41.6% (per Fangraphs) — a massive rise for a pitcher who has averaged below 30 percent for his career.
The physical changes certainly appear to have had a role. While he was never a flamethrower, Bumgarner averaged as much as 93 mph with his fastball. It has now been three seasons since his heater average heater topped 92 mph. As the effectiveness of that table-setting offering declined, he increasingly went away from the four-seamer in 2018, throwing it just 34.2% of the time — well shy of his 45.6% career average. While the remainder of his arsenal was still effective, the heater had been the bread to his cutter’s butter.
Whether Bumgarner can regain some of the lost velocity, or find a way to make up for it, remains to be seen. There’s still reason to believe he’ll be at least a useful starting pitcher regardless, if for no other reasons than because of his undeniable competitive fire and remaining youth. While he gutted out the results last year, his 3.99 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA tell a different story — though it’s not a tale of an irredeemably lost pitcher. Even if he can’t regain much of his former luster, Bumgarner will bring the promise of some solid innings, at least so long as he’s able to remain healthy.
Of course, the allure of the Bumgarner of yore will no doubt play some role in negotiations. Clubs such as those rumored to have interest aren’t looking only for a useful, back-of-the-rotation piece. They all have designs on the postseason, and no doubt at least entertain dreams of Bumgarner not only helping to get there, but also rising to the occasion when the moment calls for it.
Perhaps, too, some teams’ scouts and analysts have sussed out some reasons to believe in a turnaround. It’s fair to guess that Zaidi is about as well-versed on the subject as anyone. His former club, the Dodgers, no doubt analyzed Bumgarner closely as a division rival. And he’s now privy to all that the Giants know about their own leading pitcher. Whether Bumgarner is dealt, and what he draws in return, will also tell us quite a bit about the San Francisco organization’s views — on the southpaw as well as the rest of the roster. After all, the club has the financial means to hold on to Bumgarner, whether to maintain fan interest and boost his value for the summer trade deadline or to pursue another extension.
The broader market is certainly a factor as well. Zaidi can only market one season of Bumgarner, but in some regards that’s a positive. There are plenty of intriguing lefty starters available in free agency — most notably, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, and Yusei Kikuchi — but all figure to command significant guarantees over multiple seasons. Giving up some young talent, rather than taking on potentially damaging long-term contract commitments, will surely hold appeal. Of course, it’s also true that the presence of so many alternatives — remember that James Paxton (via trade) and CC Sabathia went off the board already, and there are other talented starters available in trade free agency — will tend to reduce demand.
All said, it’s far from clear that there’ll be sufficient interest to force Zaidi’s hand. But the mere fact that there’s a possibility of a pre-season swap is itself notable, especially given Bumgarner’s special status in franchise lore. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how this situation plays out.
By Mark Polishuk | at
Jonathan Schoop is a key figure in the Brewers’ offseason plans, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes, as the club’s decision whether or not to tender the second baseman a contract could have a ripple effect throughout the infield. Schoop is projected to earn $10.1MM via arbitration, though he is coming off a rough season that saw him hit just .233/.266/.416 over 501 plate appearances for the Brewers and Orioles. Since Schoop did post big numbers for the O’s in 2017, however, Milwaukee could keep Schoop in the fold to see if he can regain that form. If Schoop was non-tendered, the Brewers could again consider moving Travis Shaw to second base (as they did last season) and then pursue third base help, possibly in the form of a reunion with Mike Moustakas. I’d also suggest that the Brewers could simply try to acquire another second baseman if Schoop was non-tendered, as there are several interesting options available that might be preferable to taking the defensive hit that would likely come with Shaw getting regular second base duty. GM David Stearns was quick to dismiss the possibility that Keston Hiura, Milwaukee’s top prospect, could be a possibility for the second base job, as Hiura has yet to even reach the Triple-A level.
Here’s more from around baseball as we wrap up Thanksgiving weekend…
By Mark Polishuk | at
The Phillies are expected to be one of the offseason’s busiest teams, and thus it’s no surprise they’re heavily featured in this latest roundup of hot stove news from MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi. Some highlights…
By Steve Adams | at
Tonight marks the deadline for players to be added to their respective organizations’ 40-man rosters. Over the nine hours, there’ll be a flurry of moves, ranging from minor trades (like the one the Indians and Rays made yesterday), waiver claims and players being designated for assignment or outrighted. Each will be made to clear room for players who need protection from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. As a reminder, players who signed at 18 years of age or younger and have five professional seasons are eligible, as are players who signed at 19 or older and have four professional seasons under their belts.
Here’s a rundown of players who’ve been added to their respective 40-man rosters (which will be updated throughout the day)…
Earlier Additions
By Steve Adams | at
The Brewers announced today that they’ve promoted Chris Hook from pitching coordinator to pitching coach, hired Steve Karsay away from the Indians organization to serve as the new bullpen coach, and hired Scott Barringer away from the Astros to serve as the new head athletic trainer. Milwaukee also formally announced the previously reported hiring of Andy Haines as hitting coach and announced that Jason Lane would reprise his role as assistant hitting coach.
Hook has been with the organization for more than a decade, primarily working as a pitching coach at the minor league level before spending the 2018 season as the organization’s pitching coordinator. The 50-year-old had an 11-year professional playing career, including 65 2/3 innings with the Giants in 1995-96. He’ll be plenty familiar with a number of the team’s homegrown arms, having worked with them along the way in their journey to the Majors.
“I think when you know players and how they think, you can move them quicker,” said Hook of that benefit (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). “That’s the way I feel. Even though I don’t know all of these pitchers, I know a good bit of them, and I feel like they trust me. If we trust each other, you can do good things with people.”
The 46-year-old Karsay was a pitching coach in the Indians’ system for the past seven years, including a 2016-18 run as the pitching coach in Triple-A Columbus, where he worked with promising young arms like Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber, among others. Karsay collected 41 saves and posted a 4.01 ERA through 603 1/3 innings as a Major Leaguer from 1993-2006.
Barringer creates yet another opening the Astros need to fill after previous losing bullpen coach Doug White, hitting coach Dave Hudgens and assistant hitting coach Jeff Albert to other organizations (to say nothing of assistant GM Mike Elias heading to Baltimore as the new Orioles general manager). Barringer was the Astros’ assistant athletic trainer from 2017-18 and the organization’s minor league medical coordinator in 2016. Prior to that, he as a minor league athletic trainer with the Cubs and Diamondbacks for a combined five seasons.
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