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Giants Place Brandon Belt On Injured List

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The Giants have placed first baseman Brandon Belt on the 10-day injured list due to discomfort in his bothersome right knee, per a team announcement. Outfielder Bryce Johnson has been recalled from Triple-A Sacramento take his spot on the roster.

Belt, 34, has been battling chronic knee issues for much of the season and acknowledged in a candid interview with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser yesterday that the injury could well impact his baseball future. “I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t thought about what happens if I’m not able to bounce back,” Belt told Slusser. “But I don’t like thinking about it, because it’s kind of upsetting.”

With two surgeries on that problematic knee already in the rear-view mirror, Belt added to Slusser that he’s “not sure there is anything else that can be done.” Belt has had his knee drained three times already this season, per Slusser.

It’s been a tough season for Belt, who’s hitting .213/.326/.350 on the year with just 18 extra-base hits (eight homers, nine doubles, one triple). From 2020-21, Belt was one of the best hitters in all of baseball, logging a combined .285/.393/.595 batting line with 38 home runs in 560 plate appearances. Among qualified hitters in that time, Belt’s .302/.404/.638 slash and 175 wRC+ against right-handed pitching trailed only Bryce Harper and Juan Soto for tops in Major League Baseball.

This year has been another story entirely, as Belt has been prone to prolonged slumps while navigating the ongoing troubles with his knee. He’s hitting just .150/.269/.200 over his past 25 games and has just two hits and five walks in his past 45 trips to the plate. He’s maintained a keen eye and knowledge of the strike zone, evidenced by this season’s 12.4% walk rate, but Belt has also seen his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate all decline noticeably from that 2020-21 peak. A timetable for Belt’s return hasn’t been provided, but given the recent struggles, there’s a clear need to get him some rest and hope that’ll alleviate some of the discomfort that has contributed heavily this swoon.

Johnson, 26, made his big league debut earlier this season but was held hitless in a tiny sample of four plate appearances spread across four games. He’s hitting .287/.358/.398 in 287 Triple-A plate appearances — a similar but slightly diminished follow-up to last year’s .286/.377/.433 slash in 407 plate appearances at this same level.

A 2017 sixth-rounder, Johnson has never ranked among the system’s very best prospects, but he’s provided average or better offense at just about every minor league spot while serving as a prolific base thief. The speed that makes him a threat on the bases also led to plus scouting grades on his glove in center dating back to his college days. He’ll give the Giants a switch-hitting option who can plug in at any of the three outfield spots for the time being.

Giants Claim Jonathan Bermudez

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The Giants claimed left-hander Jonathan Bermudez off waivers from the Astros.  Houston designated Bermudez for assignment this past weekend. To clear a 40-man roster spot, San Francisco recalled reliever Gregory Santos and placed him on the major league 60-day injured list, likely ending his season.

The 26-year-old Bermudez is changing organizations for the first time in his career, as he was a 23rd-round draft pick for the Astros back in 2018.  He pitched in both 2019 and 2021, in the latter season returning from the 2020 layoff year to post a 3.24 ERA over 111 combined innings with the Astros’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.

Between Bermudez’s impressive strikeout and walk totals, it seemed as though Houston was developing another homegrown gem, yet the 2022 season has been a grind for the left-hander.  Bermudez has an 8.96 ERA over 67 1/3 innings at Triple-A, with an increased walk rate and a big dropoff in his missed bats — Bermudez has only a 20% strikeout rate this season, down from 31% in 2021.  A hip injury could be a contributing factor, as Bermudez missed a month of action and struggled both before and after his absence.

The Astros put Bermudez on their 40-man roster during the offseason, but his lack of production in 2022 made him an expendable piece.  The Giants are one of baseball’s most aggressive teams on the waiver wire, so it isn’t surprising that they’ve moved to add a younger pitcher who showed a lot of promise as recently as last season.  Whether due to a healthier hip or perhaps just with a change of scenery, Bermudez might well be able to turn things around in San Francisco, given how the Giants have been successful at revitalizing several struggling pitchers.

Giants Sign Ken Giles To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed righty Ken Giles to a minor league deal, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. He is expected to pitch for one of their teams in the Arizona Complex League tonight.

Giles, 31, has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball at times during his career. In 2019, he threw 53 innings with the Blue Jays with a 1.87 ERA, racking up 23 saves and striking out an incredible 39.9% of batters faced. He was limited by injuries to just 3 2/3 innings in 2020, eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

The Mariners signed Giles to a two-year deal covering the 2021 and 2022 seasons, knowing that he wouldn’t contribute in the first year of the deal. The righty made $1.5MM last year and is making $5MM here in 2022. He missed all of last season as expected, but seemed to be on track to help the club on Opening Day this year. Unfortunately, a finger injury suffered in Spring Training prevented him from making his Mariners debut until June 21. He threw 4 1/3 innings over five frames for the M’s before he had to return to the IL due to shoulder tightness.

He began a rehab assignment in early August to begin his return, getting designated for assignment by the Mariners during that rehab stint. Giles eventually rejected an outright assignment and elected free agency. As a player with more than fives years of MLB service time, it was his right to do so without forfeiting any salary. There’s around $1.18MM remaining to be paid out of that $5MM salary for this year, which the Mariners will be on the hook for, in addition to the $500K buyout on the club option for 2023. If he makes it back to the big leagues with San Fran, they will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum, with that amount being subtracted from what the Mariners pay.

The Giants are still hanging around the playoff race, currently six games behind the Phillies for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. If Giles can return to his previous form, he could give a nice boost to the Giants down the stretch.

NL Notes: Kimbrel, Fedde, Cavalli, Nationals, Junis

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The Dodgers used Craig Kimbrel for the last inning of today’s 10-3 win over the Marlins, and the reliever delivered a perfect frame to mop things up.  While not a save situation for Kimbrel, manager Dave Roberts told J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (Twitter links) and other reporters that Kimbrel and the team have agreed to base the right-hander’s workload going forward not on save chances, but rather on just getting regular outings.  This wouldn’t preclude Kimbrel being used in save opportunities, of course, and Roberts said he could still choose to use Kimbrel in consecutive games.

It has been a shaky year for the veteran reliever, as between a subpar walk rate and a lot of hard contact allowed, Kimbrel has only a 4.46 ERA over 42 1/3 innings.  A big .388 BABIP is responsible for some of these struggles, but consistency has been hard to come by in Kimbrel’s first season in Los Angeles.  It has turned the ninth inning into a question mark for the Dodgers heading into the postseason, and it could be that Kimbrel’s adjusted role could be the team’s way of auditioning some other relievers for the closer’s job as October looms.  It is also possible the Dodgers will rotate Kimbrel and many other pitchers into save situations as circumstances dictate, which may concern L.A. fans who have seen late-game breakdowns doom the Dodgers in past postseason trips.

More from around the National League…

  • The Nationals rotation will get a jolt this week, as both Erick Fedde and top prospect Cade Cavalli might be in the mix.  Fedde is the surer thing, as manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that Fedde will be activated from the 15-day injured list and start Tuesday’s game with the Mariners.  Right shoulder inflammation put Fedde out of action back on July 27, and the right-hander had a 4.95 ERA over 92 2/3 innings and 19 starts for Washington before going on the IL.  Fedde is a potential non-tender candidate as he enters his second year of arbitration eligibility, though he’ll have a few more starts to make his case for another contract, plus the Nationals might be open to giving a former first-rounder another chance anyway as the team looks to rebuild.  Cory Abbott will be moved to the bullpen to fit Fedde into the rotation.
  • Cavalli was the 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft, and is ranked within the top 60 on updated prospect lists from Baseball America (52nd) and MLB Pipeline (58th).  It has been just a few days since Cavalli’s 24th birthday, and the right-hander has a 3.71 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate over 97 Triple-A innings this season.  Control is the biggest question facing Cavalli, who otherwise has four plus pitches, highlighted by a 97mph fastball that earned a 70 grade from both BA and Pipeline.  The Nationals’ rotation plans are somewhat unknown due to three off-days in the next eight-day span, but Zuckerman thinks Cavalli might be promoted during the team’s August 26-September 1 homestand.
  • X-rays were negative on Jakob Junis’ left hand after the Giants starter was hit by a line drive in today’s game.  Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado) that Junis will also get a CT scan tomorrow to further check for any damage.  The discomfort was severe enough for Junis to be forced out of the game in the sixth inning.  Since Junis is a right-handed pitcher and because San Francisco doesn’t play on either Monday or Thursday this week, it seems possible Junis might not need an IL trip or even technically any missed starts, if the off-days just push the rest of the rotation back.  Junis has had a solid first year with the Giants, posting a 3.58 ERA over 78 innings despite a hamstring string that cost him over a month of action.

Giants Claim Patrick Mazeika From Mets

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The Giants have claimed catcher Patrick Mazeika off waivers from the Mets, tweets Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. The Mets had designated him for assignment a few days ago. To open a spot for Mazeika on the 40-man roster, infielder Donovan Walton has been recalled from Triple-A Sacramento and placed on the 60-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation.

Mazeika, 28, was drafted by the Mets and has spent his entire career with the organization until now. He made his MLB debut last year and has gotten into 61 games between 2021 and 2022. He’s hit just .190/.236/.279 in that time but has much better numbers in the minors. In Triple-A this year, he’s hit .261/.383/.333 for a wRC+ of 105.

The Giants thinned out their catching depth by trading Curt Casali to the Mariners at the deadline. Joey Bart and Austin Wynns are with the big league club, while Yermin Mercedes and Ford Proctor are in the minors, though those latter two also play other positions and are only part-time catchers. Mazeika is also capable of playing some first base, meaning the Giants now have a collection of versatile depth catching options jockeying for playing time.

As for Walton, he was acquired from the Mariners in a May trade, with the Giants optioning him to the minors and recalling him multiple times this year. He was in the minors when injured but has been called up in order to be transferred to the 60-day injured list. This means he will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, but he will earn major league pay and service time for as long as he’s there.

Outrights: Demeritte, Walker

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Updates on a couple of players that were recently designated for assignment…

  • The Braves announced that outfielder Travis Demeritte has been outrighted to Triple-A Gwinnett. The 27-year-old had been designated for assignment earlier in the week. Originally drafted by the Rangers, Demeritte was traded to Atlanta in 2016 and then traded to Detroit in 2019. He made his MLB debut with the Tigers before coming back to the Braves on a waiver claim last year. Atlanta passed him through waivers in February of last year, keeping him in the minors all season, but then selecting him to the 40-man roster in November to prevent him reaching minor league free agency. He’s played 26 big league games this year, hitting .213/.260/.337, while hitting .207/.291/.357 in 38 Triple-A games. Because he had been previously outrighted in his career, Demeritte has the right to reject this assignment, though it’s not yet clear whether he’s decided to exercise that right or not.
  • Outfielder Steele Walker, who was designated for assignment by the Giants earlier this week, cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Sacramento, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Walker, 26, was originally drafted by the White Sox but was flipped to the Rangers for Nomar Mazara in 2019. Texas selected him to the roster in June but gave him the DFA treatment a couple of weeks ago. The Giants claimed him and quickly DFA’d him again, with Walker clearing waivers this time. He only got into five MLB games while with the Rangers, spending most of the season in Triple-A. In 55 games between the Round Rock Express and Sacramento River Cats, he’s hit .268/.345/.431, striking out just 17% of the time. Since this is his first career outright and he has less than three years of MLB service time, he is ineligible to reject the assignment. He’ll stick with the River Cats and serve as depth for the Giants, but without occupying a spot on the club’s 40-man roster.

Giants Claim Andrew Vasquez, Designate Steele Walker

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The Giants have claimed left-hander Andrew Vasquez off waivers from the Phillies.  To create roster space, San Francisco has designated outfielder Steele Walker for assignment.

Vasquez was DFA’ed himself two days ago, and the southpaw will now be joining his third new organization since the start of August.  The Blue Jays signed Vasquez just after the lockout ended, but he struggled to an 8.10 ERA in limited action (6 2/3 innings) in the big leagues, and Vasquez also missed over six weeks due to an ankle injury.  Toronto designated Vasquez after the trade deadline and the Phillies put in a claim, and now Vasquez’s Philadelphia tenure will end after four appearances with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

The Giants have assigned Vasquez to their own Triple-A affiliate for now, and given San Francisco’s tendency to cycle through players on the back end of their roster, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vasquez either up in the majors soon or perhaps even back on the DFA treadmill in relatively short order.  Vazquez has an 8.10 ERA over 13 1/3 career innings in the majors (21 total games with the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Twins from 2018-22) but he has some very solid numbers and a lot of strikeouts over his minor league career.  His Triple-A resume consists of a 3.72 ERA over 87 innings, though with a high walk rate.

Walker made his MLB debut this season, appearing in five games with the Rangers before the Giants claimed him off waivers on August 7.  The White Sox selected Walker in the second round of the 2018 draft, but he has a modest .257/.329/.416 over 1405 career PA in the minor leagues.  Chicago dealt Walker to the Rangers for Nomar Mazara in 2019, and thus Walker (a native of Prospect, Texas) eventually got his first taste of the majors while playing for his hometown team.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Minor MLB Transactions: Jackson, Sharp

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Checking in a couple recent minor league deals:

  • The Giants signed utilityman Drew Jackson to a non-roster contract last week. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento, where he’s appeared in five games. A former Seattle draftee, Jackson has played in the Mariners, Dodgers, Orioles, Mets and A’s organizations before landing with San Francisco. He got into three big league games with Baltimore in 2019 and returned to the majors for a trio of contests with the A’s this April. Jackson was brought up as a COVID substitute but quickly landed on the virus list himself and was then returned to the minor leagues. He hit .243/.353/.297 through 173 plate appearances with Triple-A Las Vegas, drawing walks at a robust 13.3% clip but striking out at a massive 32.4% rate. Oakland released the 29-year-old late last month.
  • The Red Sox agreed to a minor league pact with right-hander Sterling Sharp on Tuesday, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. Sharp was released from a non-roster arrangement with the Nationals last week. Now 27, Sharp was regarded among the better pitching prospects in the Washington farm system during his time in the lower minors. The sinkerballer was a Rule 5 draftee of the Marlins in 2020. He broke camp and made four MLB appearances with Miami, allowing seven runs in 5 1/3 innings, before being designated for assignment and returned to Washington. Sharp has spent the past two years in the upper levels of the Nats’ system, including a 2022 campaign at Triple-A Rochester. He started 13 of his 18 appearances but was tagged for a 6.62 ERA with a below-average 19.3% strikeout rate over 66 2/3 innings for the Red Wings.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

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