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Tyler O’Neill Expected To Open Season As Cardinals’ Starting Center Fielder

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The Cardinals are planning to open the season with Tyler O’Neill in center field, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He’s expected to be flanked by Lars Nootbaar and rookie Jordan Walker in the corners, with Dylan Carlson pushed into a fourth outfield role out of the gate.

O’Neill has primarily played left field over the course of his career. He’s logged over 2500 MLB innings in the corners while playing just 210 2/3 frames over 26 starts up the middle. In spite of that lack of experience, O’Neill entered camp with his sight set on the outfield’s most demanding position. While he didn’t play much in Spring Training — he logged just 41 defensive innings thanks in large part to his commitment to Canada in the World Baseball Classic — the Cardinals are confident he’ll be able to assume a larger role.

It’s a bet on O’Neill’s physical tools. He’s an excellent runner with an above-average throwing arm. O’Neill has typically fared very well as a left fielder in the eyes of public metrics, securing consecutive Gold Glove awards there in 2020-21. It’s not out of the question he carries much or all of that production a notch up the defensive spectrum. O’Neill could well have gotten more reps there in prior years had the Cards not rostered a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in Harrison Bader for much of that time.

Carlson was the primary center fielder during last year’s second half. The 24-year-old slid over from right field once Bader landed on the injured list last June; he held that role following Bader’s trade to the Yankees. Carlson played 530 innings at the position, rating as an above-average if not quite elite defender in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. He paired that solid defense with a .236/.316/.380 line over 488 plate appearances, exactly league average offense as measured by wRC+.

The switch-hitting Carlson was a top prospect a few years ago. He’s been a solid player since debuting in 2020 but not made quite the impact evaluators may have anticipated, particularly from a power perspective. The transition to fourth outfield work has to register as a disappointment but certainly doesn’t preclude Carlson from playing his way back into a larger role.

It’d require good fortune for all three starting outfielders to make it through the entire season without any injuries. There’s also at least some amount of uncertainty regarding each of the players now ahead of him on the depth chart. Walker is seen as a potentially elite talent but has yet to take a regular season at-bat above Double-A. O’Neill is assuming the largest defensive responsibility of his career. Nootbaar set a career mark with 347 plate appearances last season. Nolan Gorman, who appears the early favorite for designated hitter work, has 89 games of MLB experience. There’ll be some amount of variability throughout the season depending on players’ health and performance that should afford Carlson another everyday opportunity at some point. Headed into the season, though, it appears Nootbaar, O’Neill and Walker represents the starting outfield.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals went into the offseason teasing a payroll spike. They came away with one of the top free agents available early. Things went quiet after the Winter Meetings, leaving the club to rely upon most of the core of last year’s division winner.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $27.5MM
Total spending: $105MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Cardinals won 93 games and an NL Central title last season. Their playoff run proved painfully short, as they were quickly dispatched by the Phillies in the best of three Wild Card series. It sent St. Louis into what had the potential to be an active offseason. Reigning MVP finalist Nolan Arenado had a chance to test free agency. The coaching staff saw some immediate turnover. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially stepped away, leaving the club with a question mark behind the plate for the first time in two decades.

Most of the activity played out quickly. Arenado forewent his opt-out chance. He’ll play out the final five years and $144MM (of which $31MM will reportedly be paid by the Rockies) on his contract. It’s incredible value for the team considering Arenado’s continued excellence on both sides of the ball. That’s particularly true in light of the higher than expected free agent prices for star position players this offseason, which leaves no doubt Arenado left a significant amount of money on the table. That he did so speaks both to his desire for stability and his faith in the organization’s playoff chances over the coming seasons.

As part of the push to keep Arenado around, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak met with the star third baseman to assure him of their competitive goals. Presumably, the club’s payroll was part of those talks, as the St. Louis front office leader also publicly teased an uptick in spending this winter. Mozeliak frankly declared the team would go outside the organization for a new catcher rather than turn to Iván Herrera and Andrew Knizner behind the dish.

Those talking points would come together around six weeks later, but the Cardinals had some intervening business. First was re-signing franchise icon Adam Wainwright for a 19th season. He inked a $17.5MM deal that exactly matched his 2022 salary, though this contract involved deferrals to push $10MM of the money into future years. There was never any question whether Wainwright would sign with another team. The only intrigue was if he’d choose to continue playing or join Pujols and Molina in retirement. The three-time All-Star chose to run things back one more time but has already announced the 2023 campaign will be his last.

Another star of recent franchise history, Matt Holliday, also emerged in the news early in the offseason. After bench coach Skip Schumaker and hitting coach Jeff Albert departed the organization — Schumaker to become Miami’s manager, Albert to step away from the demands of being a lead hitting instructor at the MLB level — Holliday expressed some interest in joining Oli Marmol’s coaching staff. That happened in early November, when the Cards tabbed Holliday as bench coach. Things took another turn when the seven-time All-Star resigned two months later, citing a desire to spend more time with his family. Ultimately, Joe McEwing assumed the bench coach role. Turner Ward was brought in as hitting coach. Dusty Blake got the nod to replace pitching coach Mike Maddux, who stepped down and eventually took the same position in Texas.

While much of the coaching staff was reshuffled, continuity remains an ongoing theme in the front office. Mozeliak and general manager Michael Girsch each signed multiyear extensions, keeping one of the league’s longest-tenured executive pairings in charge. Mozeliak hinted at a succession plan being put in place over the coming seasons — presumably one that’d eventually see Girsch take over baseball operations — but there’s no publicly defined timetable for that transition.

Once Wainwright and Arenado were guaranteed to return, the Cardinals turned their attention to external possibilities. As Mozeliak indicated from the outset, catcher was the top priority. St. Louis was linked to Sean Murphy on the trade front and free agents like Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez. Contreras, a longtime division rival as a Cub, was the clear top backstop on the open market. While the Cards juggled both trade and free agent possibilities headed into the Winter Meetings, they ultimately pulled off a big free agent strike.

St. Louis inked Contreras to a five-year, $87.5MM guarantee that contains a club option for a sixth season. The second-largest free agent investment in franchise history, the deal also required surrendering their second-highest pick in next year’s draft and $500K of international signing bonus space because Contreras had rejected a qualifying offer. St. Louis felt that a reasonable price to pay for one of the sport’s top offensive catchers. Contreras is coming off a .243/.349/.466, 22-homer showing and has topped the 20 longball mark on four separate occasions. He’s faced some criticism for his receiving and questions about his ability to handle a pitching staff but there are few catchers capable of providing the offensive punch he brings.

The Contreras deal proved to be St. Louis’ big offseason move. Once that was finalized, things went quiet for the bulk of the winter. The Cardinals were loosely linked to other targets. They were on the periphery of the Dansby Swanson market before the Contreras signing. The Cards were at least a speculative fit for a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, particularly since left-hander José Quintana departed in free agency. They checked in on Carlos Rodón before he signed a six-year deal with the Yankees. They were among the numerous teams tied to Miami’s rotation surplus but talks failed to gain traction when the Fish reportedly targeted Lars Nootbaar in a potential Pablo López trade.

Mozeliak said at the start of the offseason that a left-handed bat was on the wishlist but the club didn’t pull that off. At the tail end of the offseason, the Cards were among a number of teams linked to the free agent left-handed relief market. Barring a late signing of the still unsigned Zack Britton, that also won’t manifest in a deal.

Obviously, every team kicks around possible moves that don’t come to fruition. Regardless, it’d be fair for the fanbase to have anticipated more activity after Mozeliak’s early-offseason comments about a payroll spike. St. Louis enters the 2023 season with a player payroll projected in the $179MM – $180MM range by Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’s a franchise record and around $25MM north of last year’s Opening Day mark. The Cardinals did increase spending but didn’t alter their mid-tier expenditures in comparison to the rest of the league. According to Cot’s, they entered 2022 with the 13th-highest payroll in the majors; they’re projected at 14th this season.

Mozeliak himself expressed some amount of frustration with the way things played out, even as he struck an optimistic tone overall. “When we reflect back on the offseason, there were certainly some things we were hoping to do that we weren’t able to accomplish,” he told reporters in January. “A lot of things sort of unfolded or transpired that necessarily didn’t break the way we had hoped. … Do we have the bandwidth to still add to this club throughout the year?  Yes, we do.  Is the market something that had an adverse effect [on] us spending? The answer is of course. The way we operate is that we’re going to invest in what we think are smart investments, prudent, but also investments that we understand could have a backside of negativity or loss.  Having said that, you’re still not going to do something just to do something, and you’re not going to spend just to spend.  We like our team.  If we didn’t like our team, we’d be making adjustments to our team.”

Ultimately, the offseason was defined by one transaction. Aside from Contreras stepping into Molina’s shoes, St. Louis more or less brings back the same roster that ended 2022. Quintana and Corey Dickerson signed elsewhere. Pujols retired. Former top prospect and closer Alex Reyes was non-tendered after losing the entire season to a shoulder injury that required surgery.

Aside from Contreras, the only external additions come at the back of the roster. Minor league infielder José Fermín was acquired from the Guardians for cash. Former Dodgers’ farmhand Guillermo Zuniga secured a 40-man spot in free agency as a hard-throwing reliever who hasn’t topped Double-A. Veteran utilityman Taylor Motter signed a minor league deal and will break camp with the team in a bench role. The Cards brought in southpaw Anthony Misiewicz as bullpen depth after he was designated for assignment by the Royals while taking a flier on Wilking Rodríguez in the Rule 5 draft. Former Nationals catcher Tres Barrera, signed to a non-roster deal over the winter, might surpass Knizner for the backup job.

Despite the lack of other significant transactions, there remains reason for optimism about the upcoming season. The Cardinals have been a model of consistency over the past decade and a half. They’ve shown a knack for churning out quality players through the farm system to continually compete while only occasionally making big free agent moves. Much of the group that won the division will be back.

Paul Goldschmidt pairs with Arenado as perhaps the league’s top corner infield duo. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman should get the bulk of playing time up the middle, with former top prospect Nolan Gorman an option at second base. The outfield brings back a high-upside trio of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Nootbaar and welcomes one of the game’s best minor league talents. Jordan Walker will break camp after a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. It’s not without risk, considering the former first-rounder hasn’t played a single inning at the Triple-A level. Yet Walker has torn the cover off the ball in the minors and is credited by evaluators with arguably the best hit/power combination of any current prospect. He’ll surely get everyday reps now that he’s on the MLB club, mostly in the outfield corners and at designated hitter considering his natural third base position is already filled.

Gorman, Alec Burleson and prospects like Masyn Winn and Matthew Liberatore aren’t counted on to play huge roles from the outset. They’re all well-regarded to varying degrees, though, and the organizational depth could position St. Louis to make a midseason strike on the trade market if they’re battling for the division as expected.

The starting staff is probably the area of the roster that could stand to see the biggest upgrade. St. Louis has a decent collection of quality arms but doesn’t have the top-of-the-rotation hurler that most other contenders do. Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz are the top five on the depth chart. Wainwright will begin the year on the injured list after suffering a groin strain during a workout, pushing Jake Woodford into the season-opening rotation. It’s a stable but not especially high-impact group, illustrated by Quintana getting the nod for Game One of the Cards’ playoff series last year.

Acquiring a starting pitcher at the deadline could come with the added bonus of deepening the 2024 staff. As recently as last week, Matz represented the only established starter under club control beyond this season. The Cards took a step towards solidifying the long-term group by extending Mikolas on what amounts to a two-year, $40MM investment. The deal tacks on some immediate money for the veteran in the form of a $5MM signing bonus and a bump in 2023 salary from $15.75MM to $18.75MM. In exchange, the Cards will keep him around for two extra seasons at $16MM annually.

There’s room for another extension and/or trade for a controllable pitcher. Wainwright isn’t coming back in 2024; Montgomery and Flaherty are on track to hit free agency. Perhaps Liberatore, Woodford or a prospect like Tink Hence takes a step forward this year. As of now, only Matz and Mikolas can confidently be penciled into next year’s rotation.

How to balance that long-term outlook with the club’s more immediate needs will be determined over the coming months. As they do seemingly every year, the Cardinals enter 2023 with one of the game’s deeper rosters. They’re well positioned to compete for another division title in what should again be a fairly weak NL Central. The Pirates and Reds aren’t playoff competitive. The Cubs have improved but have a significant gap to get to the top of the division. St. Louis and the Brewers seem the two best teams, offering a clear path for the Cardinals to claim a fifth consecutive postseason berth.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on March 28. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Cardinals’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Cardinals To Select Jordan Walker

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells reporters, including MLB.com’s John Denton, that top prospect Jordan Walker has made the Opening Day roster in St. Louis. Walker, who is not on the 40-man roster, will require a corresponding move to be added. According to Denton, Mozeliak expects this move to come on Wednesday or Thursday. Outfielder Alec Burleson and left-handers Zack Thompson and Packy Naughton have also made the big league roster, according to Mozeliak.

Walker, 20, is a consensus top prospect in the sport, with MLB.com ranking him as the 4th best in the game. Should Walker finish in the top three of NL Rookie of the Year voting or the top five of NL MVP voting this year, the Cardinals will receive an extra draft pick thanks to Walker’s inclusion on the Opening Day roster.

That’s not out of the realm of possibility for Walker, a career .310/.388/.525 hitter in the minors who has yet to play above the Double-A level in his career. In skipping Triple-A entirely for Walker, the Cardinals are giving the potential superstar a notable vote of confidence. With Walker’s native third base occupied by 2023 NL MVP finalist Nolan Arenado, Walker figures to factor into the club’s outfield and DH mix alongside Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson.

Fellow Top 100 prospect Burleson, meanwhile, struggled in his 2022 big league debut, slashing .188/.264/.271 in 53 plate appearances. With that being said, he dominated to a .905 OPS in 109 games at the Triple-A level last season, leaving plenty of room for a big breakout for the 24 year-old.

Following St. Louis’s decision to option lefty Genesis Cabrera earlier today, it’s of little surprise to see Thompson and Naughton make the roster. Thompson dominated to a 2.08 ERA in 34 2/3 innings for the Cardinals last year, and though Naughton didn’t fare as well with a 4.78 ERA in 32 big league innings, he did dominate in Triple-A last year.

Cardinals Select Taylor Motter; Option Juan Yepez, Génesis Cabrera And JoJo Romero

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The Cardinals have made several roster moves, per their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Infielder Taylor Motter has been selected to the club’s 40-man roster, while infielder/outfielder Juan Yepez and lefties Génesis Cabrera and JoJo Romero were optioned to the minors. The Cardinals already opened up a spot on their 40-man roster last week when right-hander Freddy Pacheco was lost on waivers to the Tigers, meaning a corresponding move won’t be necessary for the addition of Motter.

Motter, 33, is a veteran journeyman utility guy, who has appeared in 161 major league games scattered over five different seasons. He’s spent time with the Rays, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Red Sox and Reds. In that time, he’s hit .191/.262/.309 for a wRC+ of 55. With Cincy last year, he got into just two major league games, spending most of his time in Triple-A. He was released in July and then latched on with Atlanta via a minor league deal. Between the two organizations, he got into 81 Triple-A games and hit .254/.357/.523, wRC+ of 129.

Though he doesn’t have much of a track record of success hitting MLB pitching, Motter certainly can provide defensive versatility, having played every position on the diamond except for center field and catcher. That seemed to give him an edge on a roster spot when shortstop Paul DeJong suffered some back tightness that is going to have him start the season on the injured list. That left the club a bit light in the middle infield behind shortstop Tommy Edman and second baseman Brendan Donovan. Nolan Gorman can play second but doesn’t really play short, so Motter will give the club a bit of extra protection.

The optioning of Yepez comes as a bit of a surprise, as he hit 12 home runs in his 76-game debut last year, leading to a .253/.296/.447 batting line and a 109 wRC+. However, unlike Motter, he’s somewhat limited defensively, as he can only play the corner positions. Since the Cards have Nolan Arenado at third and Paul Goldschmidt at first, Yepez would be limited to the designated hitter spot and some corner outfield work, where his defense was graded poorly last year. The outfield is also getting pretty crowded, with Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson set to return and prospect Jordan Walker looking like he will make the team, though nothing had been made official there. It seems Yepez would have had a limited path to playing time in the big leagues and will instead get some regular at-bats in the minors.

The optioning of Cabrera is also somewhat surprising, given his track record. In 2021, he made 71 appearances in 2021 with a 3.73 ERA, striking out 26.0% of batters faced. His 12.2% walk rate was certainly on the high side, but it was a strong campaign nonetheless. In 2022, he dropped his walk rate to 10.3% but his strikeouts also vanished, dropping to 16.5% and leading to a 4.63 ERA. Despite that rough year last year, he was having a nice performance here in Spring Training, throwing seven innings with seven punchouts, no walks and a 2.57 ERA. But that evidently wasn’t enough to get him a nod for the Opening Day roster.

Romero, 26, came over from the Phillies in the Edmundo Sosa trade. He has a 6.25 ERA in 36 MLB innings thus far in his career. His option doesn’t come as a shock, but with him and Cabrera out of the picture, it seems possible that Zack Thompson and Packy Naughton might be the club’s lefty relief options to open the season.

As mentioned, today’s moves won’t require a corresponding move to open up a 40-man roster spot for Motter. However, if Walker is indeed going to make the team like many expect, he will need a spot in the coming days.

Cardinals Sign Miles Mikolas To Two-Year Extension

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The Cardinals have locked up one of their starters beyond this season. St. Louis announced Friday afternoon they’ve signed Miles Mikolas to an extension that runs through 2025. The deal reportedly tacks on two years and $40MM in guarantees and comes with potential awards bonuses.

Mikolas had been set to make $15.75MM this season, the final of a four-year extension he signed back in 2019. The new deal tacks on some money up front. He’ll receive a $5MM signing bonus to be paid by July 1 and sees his 2023 salary jump to $18.75MM. The Octagon client will then earn consecutive $16MM salaries in 2024-25.

The 34-year-old Mikolas is coming off one of his finest seasons, having logged a career-high 202 1/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was well below average, but the right-hander offset that with an exceptional 4.8% walk rate and a 45% ground-ball rate that checks in a bit above average. He also limited hard contact at a better-than-average rate, evidenced by an 87.8 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate, which landed in the 65th and 66th percentile of MLB pitchers, respectively.

Locking up Mikolas is of particular importance for the Cardinals given the long-term outlook of their rotation. Adam Wainwright has already announced his intention to retire after the 2023 season, and Mikolas was set to be joined by Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty in free agency. That would’ve left Steven Matz as the only established starter under contract or club control beyond the 2023 season.

The Cardinals surely have hopes that some combination of young pitchers and prospects — Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford and Gordon Graceffo among them — will step up and stake their claim to rotation spots when opportunities present themselves this year. That’s a big bet for a team to make when facing the possibility of losing 80% of its rotation, however. Keeping Mikolas in the fold lessens some of the pressure on those young arms, retains a staff leader and proactively fills one 2024 rotation spot — health permitting, of course.

That last note shouldn’t simply be written off. While Mikolas was one of just eight MLB pitchers to reach 200 innings last year and has made 32 starts in three of the past five seasons, he’s had his share of recent injury troubles as well. He missed the entire 2020 season due to a torn flexor tendon that required surgery, and discomfort in that surgically repaired forearm/flexor area limited Mikolas to just nine starts in 2021.

The extension is a clear bet that those forearm issues are behind him and that he’s back to his workhorse ways. All signs since Opening Day 2022 have pointed to that being the case, and with Wainwright slated to open the season on the injured list, Mikolas has been announced as the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter in his place.

From a payroll vantage point, there was ample room for the Cards to make this move. They’ll open the 2023 season with a payroll of nearly $188MM (including Mikolas’ signing bonus and 2023 salary bump) but had just shy of $107MM on next year’s books prior to this deal. That doesn’t include their arbitration class, but it’s a relatively small group of eight players: Tyler O’Neill, Dakota Hudson, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Knizner, Genesis Cabrera, Dylan Carlson and Anthony Misiewicz. No one from that group is making even $5MM in 2023, and there are a handful of plausible non-tender candidates in the group as well.

A $16MM salary for Mikolas next season will bump that 2024 commitment to about $123MM. Overall, the contract’s $20MM average annual value is a bump over the $17MM AAV of his current four-year, $68MM contract — an increase that’s reflective of the contract’s shorter nature, the rising price of starting pitching on the open market and of Mikolas’ strong results in 2022. The $20MM AAV on the deal is comparable to that of fellow mid- or even late-30s veterans like Chris Bassitt ($21MM) and Charlie Morton ($20MM).

The new contract covers Mikolas’ age-35 and age-36 seasons. He’ll have the opportunity to return to the market in advance of his age-37 season, and as pitchers like Morton and Zack Greinke have illustrated in recent years, there’s still ample earning power for non-ace pitchers at that juncture of a career so long as they remain healthy.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported the Cardinals and Mikolas had agreed to an extension. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported it was worth $40MM over two years, as well as the salary structure. The Associated Press reported the bonus was to be paid by July 1 and the presence of award bonuses.

Cardinals Notes: Montgomery, Barrera, Knizner, Bullpen, Motter

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Cardinals left-hander Jordan Montgomery, a free agent after the season, is open to an extension that’d keep him in St. Louis but suggests to John Denton of MLB.com that he prefers not to negotiate once the regular season has commenced (Twitter thread). It’s a common stance for players to take during spring training, which is typically the most active time of the year on the extension market.

Montgomery, 30, joined the Cardinals last summer in a deadline swap that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. The left-hander was excellent following the trade, working to a sharp 3.11 ERA with an improved 23.9% strikeout rate, a 5.4% walk rate and a 49.7% grounder rate that tops any mark he posted during his time in the Bronx. Montgomery missed nearly the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery but has since returned and reestablished himself as a quality big league hurler. He’s made 62 starts over the past two seasons, recording a 3.65 ERA and identical 3.65 FIP in 335 2/3 innings. The Cardinals seemingly have some extra motivation to keep Montgomery, as Adam Wainwright will retire after the season while Montgomery, Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty are all free agents. Steven Matz is the only established starter that St. Louis controls beyond 2023.

More on the Cards…

  • The Cardinals have a two-man race to back up newly signed catcher Willson Contreras, with incumbent backup Andrew Knizner and non-roster invitee Tres Barrera jostling for the role. To this point, Knizner has received more playing time during official spring games, but he’s just 4-for-42 and has yet to connect on an extra-base hit. Barrera has just 18 plate appearances, and while he’s gone 2-for-12 in official spring contests, one of those hits was a home run and he’s also drawn six walks (making for an odd .167/.444/.500 slash line). The Cardinals haven’t made a decision yet, but manager Oli Marmol acknowledged to Denton this week that, “In this short period of time, Barrera has clearly outperformed Knizner — I can’t disagree with that.” The Cardinals will factor more than a handful of at-bats from each player into the equation, but Marmol voiced a general desire to be able to get more offense from the backup catcher position. The 28-year-old Barrera has just 162 MLB plate appearances and is a .231/.317/.315 hitter in that time. He’s a .251/.332/.388 hitter in the minors. Knizner has slashed a combined .204/.292/.288 in 553 MLB plate appearances across parts of four seasons with the Cards. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat suggests that Knizner could be a candidate to be flipped elsewhere if another club in need of a backup reaches out to the Cardinals.
  • Left-hander Anthony Misiewicz was optioned to Triple-A Memphis today, the team announced. Following that cut, the Cardinals have Genesis Cabrera, Zack Thompson, Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero and non-roster invitee Andrew Suarez as possible lefties in Marmol’s bullpen. Thompson and Suarez have been outstanding this spring, with neither allowing a run through 9 1/3 innings and eight innings, respectively. Suarez isn’t on the 40-man roster, however, which could work against him early in the season. Cabrera is the most experienced of the bunch in terms of MLB service time and is earning a $950K salary this season, but he does have a minor league option remaining — as do Thompson (two), Naughton (one) and Romero (one). Suarez would also have one minor league option year left, if selected to the roster.
  • With Paul DeJong expected to begin the season on the injured list, it’s increasingly likely that veteran utilityman Taylor Motter will win a roster spot with the Cardinals, tweets Jones. As Jones writes at greater length, Motter’s solid spring, defensive versatility and remaining minor league option make him a candidate to win a spot on the Cardinals’ bench. The Cards have given Motter a hefty 55 plate appearances in Grapefruit League play thus far, and he’s responded with a .234/.345/.426 batting line, three homers, three steals and a 13-to-8 K/BB ratio. Top prospect Masyn Winn is still in camp and has turned plenty of heads, but he just turned 21 two days ago and has yet to play a game in Triple-A. The Cards surely want him to log everyday at-bats that probably wouldn’t be present at the big league level with a crowded infield mix.

Adam Wainwright To Open Season On Injured List

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright will open the season on the injured list due to a groin strain, manager Oli Marmol announced to the team’s beat this morning (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Wainwright was healthy enough to toss four innings of one-run ball for Team USA in its semi-final victory over Cuba in the World Baseball Classic earlier this week, but he suffered this new injury in the weight room two days later. Rule 5 pick Wilking Rodriguez will also open the year on the injured list due to tightness in his right shoulder, tweets Ben Frederickson of the Post-Dispatch.

There’s no precise timeline for Wainwright, though Marmol indicated that the right-hander is likely to miss “several weeks,” John Denton of MLB.com tweets. Wainwright has pitched seven innings thus far in Grapefruit League play and tossed another eight frames in the WBC. Were it not for this weight room incident, Wainwright would’ve had time to get in another Grapefruit League outing, and he was then expected to serve as the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter in what will be the final season of his Major League career.

With Wainwright out for the next few weeks, right-hander Jake Woodford is expected to step into the rotation alongside Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty. Woodford was likely ticketed for a long-relief role to begin the season and is plenty stretched out already, having pitched 17 2/3 innings over five appearances this spring. He’s posted a terrific 2.04 ERA with an 18-to-5 K/BB ratio in that time.

The 26-year-old Woodford has seen action with the Cards in each of the past three seasons, starting a total of 10 games in addition to another 55 relief appearances. He’s recorded a 3.61 ERA in that time, including a 2.23 mark in 48 1/3 innings just last season. Woodford carries one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates (15.9% career, 12.8% in 2022) but also possesses well above-average command, highlighted by last year’s 5.9% walk rate. In 2022, he used both his sinker and slider at career-high levels, and the resulting 52% ground-ball rate played right into one of the Cardinals’ greatest team strengths: infield defense. He’ll look for a similar outcome in 2023.

As for the 33-year-old Rodriguez, he’s something of a remarkable story. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball with the Yankees and nine year since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. The right-hander has been pitching regularly in the Venezuelan Winter League and, more recently, in the Mexican League. Over his past two seasons in Mexico, he’s tossed 73 innings of 2.71 ERA ball with gaudy strikeout totals, including a 2.01 ERA and 43.2% strikeout rate in 44 2/3 innings in 2022. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal in August, but due to his prior minor league service from 2007-15 (with the Rays, Reds, Royals and Yankees), he was Rule 5-eligible and selected by the Cardinals.

Rodriguez will need to last the entire season on the Cardinals’ roster or injured list or else be placed on waivers and (if he clears) offered back to the Yankees. He’ll need at least 90 days on the active roster, as well, or else his Rule 5 status will roll over into the 2024 campaign and remain intact until he reaches that (cumulative) 90-day mark on the active roster.

NL Notes: Harper, Hudson, Liberatore, Stephenson

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told members of the media, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic, that the club doesn’t plan to put Bryce Harper on the 60-day injured list for now. Harper is recovering from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until July, but it seems the club will leave the door open for the possibility that he’s able to return in late May. Dombrowski didn’t say that Harper’s timeline had changed, but the club doesn’t need to open a roster spot at the moment and will at least keep their options open and put off the move until necessary.

As Gelb points out, a transfer to the 60-day IL can be backdated. Even if Harper is eventually moved there at some point during the season, he will still be eligible to be activated 60 days from Opening Day, which will be late May. It’s possible that’s how this ultimately plays out, but it seems as though the Phils think there’s at least some chance Harper can come back ahead of schedule. Whether that’s a realistic path or just wishful thinking remains to be seen.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • The Cardinals announced today that right-hander Dakota Hudson and left-hander Matthew Liberatore have each been optioned to Triple-A. Both players have been part of the club’s rotation plans in past years, but they’re currently on the outside of the starting group, with the five spots going to Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Hudson made 32 starts for the club in 2019 with a 3.35 ERA but hasn’t been the same since. Injuries limited him to just eight starts in 2020 and then just two appearances in 2021. Last year, he was healthy enough to make 26 starts but posted a 4.45 ERA with a 13.1% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. Liberatore was once a top 100 prospect but struggled last year, posting a 5.97 ERA in the majors and 5.17 mark in Triple-A. Both players will head to the minors to work on their performance, which could have long-term ramifications for the club. Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery are all impending free agents. That leaves Matz as the only pitcher currently penciled into the 2024 rotation.
  • Pirates right-hander Robert Stephenson will likely begin the season on the injured list. “We’re just running out of time,” manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The righty was slowed by some arm discomfort early in camp, which was initially described as a precautionary setback. However, it seems he hasn’t been able to return to health as fast as hoped. The 30-year-old has had an up-and-down career, but is coming off a strong finish to his 2022. He had a 6.04 ERA last year when the Rockies put him on waivers, but then posted a 3.38 ERA with the Pirates after they claimed him. His strikeout rate also almost doubled, going from 18.8% with Colorado to 36% with Pittsburgh. The Bucs believed in him enough to tender him a contract and pay him a $1.75MM salary to avoid arbitration, his final year before reaching free agency.

Paul DeJong Likely To Open Season On Injured List

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Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong has been dealing with some back tightness of late and suffered a setback yesterday. He told Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he was planning to serve as the club’s designated hitter today but now doubts he’ll get into a game before camp breaks. He said he can’t flex or rotate his spine without pain. Since Opening Day is now just over a week away, he seems destined for a trip to the injured list to begin the year.

It’s an unfortunate start to the season for DeJong, one that figures to be important for him. He’s headed into the final guaranteed season of the six-year, $26MM extension he signed prior to the 2018 campaign. At that time, he was coming off an excellent rookie season in 2017 in which he hit 25 home runs and slashed .285/.325/.532 for a wRC+ of 123.

Unfortunately, his offense has been trending down in each season since then. His wRC+ dropped to 103 and then 101 in the first two years of that deal, then 87 and 85 in the next two, before dropping to a dismal 55 last year. He struck out in 33.3% of his plate appearances in 2022 and finished with a batting line of .157/.245/.286. Tommy Edman took over the shortstop job and DeJong was even optioned to the minors for over two months in the middle of last summer. Edman hit .265/.324/.400 last year for a wRC+ of 108 and earned strong grades across the board for his shortstop defense.

Despite the struggles at the plate, DeJong is well suited for a backup infield role given his own defense. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have always been fond of his glovework and that has continued to be the case. Outs Above Average had mixed feelings about DeJong’s early career work but gave him a +4 in 2021 and a +5 last year.

DeJong is set to make $9MM this season, which is certainly a high price to pay for a backup infielder. But the money is already committed and his work in the field is good, so there’s little harm in keeping him around as a bench piece. He has now surpassed five years of service time, meaning he can no longer be optioned to the minors without his consent. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated in December that the club planned to keep DeJong, saying that they’re “not ready to cut bait” on him. The Marlins reportedly had some trade talks with the Cards about DeJong this winter but it didn’t seem much progress was made.

The extension that DeJong originally signed has a pair of club options. There’s a $12.5MM option for 2024 with a $2MM buyout and a $15MM option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. There was a time when those options would have seemed like bargains but they now seem highly unlikely to be picked up. DeJong would have to produce an incredible offensive turnaround for it to even be a consideration this year, which will be hard to pull off while serving in a part-time role. Injuries to other players could potentially open up more playing time for him down the road, but DeJong is the one hurt at the moment.

While it doesn’t seem like DeJong is going to be out for an extended stretch of time, the Cards will still have a bit less depth in the middle infield until he recovers. Edman should be the everyday shortstop, with Brendan Donovan likely at second base on most days. Donovan can also play elsewhere, including shortstop, which could open up some more playing time for Nolan Gorman. If they want another middle infielder on the team, they could select a non-roster invitee like Taylor Motter, who is having a nice spring. José Fermín is on the 40-man but was recently shut down for a few weeks with a quad strain. But if the Cards feel the trio of Edman, Donovan and Gorman is enough cover until DeJong gets back, perhaps that opens a bench spot for an outfielder like Alec Burleson.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.

Three More

Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.

Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.

Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.

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