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Braves’ GM Anthopoulos On Kimbrel, Trade Market

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The Braves’ offseason began with a bang, signing both Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann early on, but there’s been little activity out of Atlanta since that time. The club did strike up a surprisingly affordable deal to bring Nick Markakis back for at least a fifth season (and possibly a sixth) earlier this week, filling an obvious hole in right field.

Many fans, however, were hoping to see a bigger splash to fill that vacancy — or at least some type of splash following the aggressive November deal that brought Donaldson into the fold. General manager Alex Anthopoulos’ comments about the financial flexibility that Markakis’ contract affords the club only fueled the fire for the Braves’ fanbase and their hopes for another marquee pickup, with many pining for a Craig Kimbrel reunion. However, Anthopoulos’ comments in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM at the very least downplay that possibility — if not almost entirely rule it out (Twitter links, with audio):

“He makes everybody a lot better,” said Anthopoulos of Kimbrel. “He’s one of the best closers of all time. I did come out early in the offseason and, not speaking specifically about him, but [said] our payroll, our model, I don’t know that us spending big, elite dollars on a reliever — length, the term and all that — I don’t know that that model works for us.”

Kimbrel entered the offseason reportedly seeking a massive payday north of $100MM, and while reports since that time have indicated that goal has dropped a bit, the latest update on his asking price suggested the $86MM and $80MM contracts of Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen as targets (although that was a month ago). A closer with Kimbrel’s track record, understandably, is aiming exceptionally high, and even if his price drops a bit further, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his camp eye a deal that tops Wade Davis’ $17.33MM average annual value record for a reliever.

Wherever Kimbrel’s contract eventually lands, it seems reasonable to think that he’ll command the “big, elite dollars” to which Anthopoulos expressed an aversion. If that proves to be the case, Anthopoulos suggested that he’s happy with the end-game options the Braves already have in house while acknowledging that he’s still considering veteran additions.

“From a bullpen standpoint, A.J. Minter, Arodys Vizcaino did a nice, solid job for us,” said Anthopoulos. “…Hopefully, a young guy like Minter can take one more step. I think having a healthy Darren O’Day is going to be big, and then some of the other young kids that really took a step and had a nice year have a chance to continue to contribute. But, there’s no doubt if we can get more talent, more experience — especially at the end of the game — it’s going to slot everybody down. That’s definitely something we’ve explored, both in trade and free agency.”

The trade market — specifically, Atlanta’s lack of activity on that front — has been another potential source of consternation among fans. The Braves organization has famously built up a wealth of premium prospects and a deep reserve of secondary (but still high-quality) minor leaguers that has made their farm system one of baseball’s best. Clearly, there isn’t room for all of the stockpiled talent to claim regular roles with the big league club, and many would like to see the team cash in some of those farmhands for proven MLB talent. That, said Anthopoulos, is something the team has explored at length, though there’s been no common ground reached with teams shopping intriguing talent.

The GM plainly stated that his club was “definitely engaged” with the Mariners with regard to James Paxton, though the lefty eventually went to the Yankees in a package headlined by MLB-ready top prospect Justus Sheffield and another high-quality, near-MLB arm in Erik Swanson. Atlanta also spoke to the Mariners about closer Edwin Diaz before Seattle sent him and half of Robinson Cano’s remaining contract to the Mets in exchange for a package led by this past draft’s No. 6 overall pick, Jarred Kelenic.

“At the end of the day, we had the ability to say ’yes,'” said Anthopoulos of those talks. “We got a price on players like that. We’re definitely going to be ’in’ on those guys. … I think, at the end of the day, we really feel strongly about the talent that we have. We put some good young players on the table in deals. I think maybe where we hit a bit of a snag in some of these things is just the volume — and that’s where we do pause, and we kind of pump the brakes a little bit.”

Though the inability to reach an agreement is surely frustrating for the Braves’ front office as well, Anthopoulos indicated that it’s often a relief to look back on some deals that ultimately weren’t made. He noted that he was most frequently asked about both Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies last offseason and is thankful not to have budged on either player and also “pretty happy” to have passed on some trade-deadline offers with which they were presented. (Of course, there are undoubtedly prospects whose stock has dropped that the Braves may, with the benefit of hindsight, been able to have let go without significant consequence.)

Ultimately, it sounds as though the Braves will continue to explore the trade market — they’re still oft-connected to J.T. Realmuto, for instance, and there are teams with relief pitchers available — but at the very least, it seems Atlanta fans should temper their expectations with regard to a Kimbrel reunion, which is a disheartening reality not only for them but also for Kimbrel’s camp. Kimbrel still seems destined for a sizable payday, but Anthopoulos is the second baseball ops leader in the past two weeks to suggest that paying Kimbrel at a premium rate likely isn’t in the cards; Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made similar comments recently, all of which only further clouds the market for the offseason’s top free-agent reliever.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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Trade Rumors: Cubs, Hardy, A’s, Tigers, Holt, Yankees

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The Cubs have been linked to the reliever market, though they may wait until January before making any new acquisitions.  As one source speculates to the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales, the Cubs might first need to clear some payroll space before adding to their bullpen.  Rumors of a lack of a spending capacity have loomed over Chicago’s offseason, and the crunch could be tighter than anticipated if the team will have to move other salaries to afford even mid-tier relief pitching signings.  Gonzales runs through a few of the names on the Cubs roster that could possibly be dealt in salary-clearing moves, though he notes that several of these options don’t look too feasible, as players are either coming off down years (i.e. Brian Duensing, Brandon Kintzler) or they’re coming off good years (i.e. Jose Quintana, Ben Zobrist) and thus still have value to a Cubs team looking to contend in 2019.

Some more trade rumblings from around the Winter Meetings…

  • The Athletics have some interest in Tigers left-hander Blaine Hardy, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports.  Hardy started 13 of his 30 appearances in 2018 and posted some generally solid (3.56 ERA, 3.00 K/BB rate) numbers, though he didn’t miss many bats with a 6.9 K/9.  Hardy is only projected to earn $1.2MM next season and he is controllable through two more arbitration-eligible seasons beyond 2019, making him a particularly good fit for the budget-conscious A’s.  With a rotation still dotted with injury question marks, the A’s could use Hardy as a swingman again, deploying him as a starter on occasion or possibly coming in to pitch after an “opener” starts the game.  Despite this need for pitching, Oakland could be playing the waiting game on starting options, as Slusser notes that the club has yet to contact free agent arms like Derek Holland, Gio Gonzalez, or Lance Lynn.  Also from Slusser’s piece, he notes that the Athletics will still look to re-sign catcher Jonathan Lucroy even after acquiring Chris Herrmann yesterday.
  • There have been a number of names on the Red Sox roster (some surprising) mentioned as trade candidates within the last 24 hours, and the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo mentions that Brock Holt is another name that has received interest.  A deal seems unlikely, however, as the super-utilityman is slated to handle second base if Dustin Pedroia isn’t ready for the start of the season.  Holt rebounded from a poor 2017 campaign to hit .277/.362/.411 over 367 PA for the World Series champs last season, spending most of his time as a second baseman but also making starts at shortstop, third base, first base, and both corner outfield slots.
  • As usual, a ton of trade speculation has swirled around the Yankees, and GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that he has been asked about virtually every player on his roster.  That list even includes James Paxton, as teams checked in to see if New York would consider flipping the star southpaw after acquiring him from the Mariners last month (needless to say, the Yankees declined).  Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were the only two players Cashman said he hadn’t yet been asked about.

Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes

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After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.

Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

  • In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
  • While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
  • Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
  • As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.

Yankees Acquire James Paxton

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The Yankees have officially struck a deal to acquire lefty James Paxton from the Mariners, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) first reported. Top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield is coming to Seattle in return, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Completing the return are outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams and righty Erik Swanson, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (via Twitter).

This is the first major move of the winter market, bringing a top-shelf starter to a New York club that has long been rumored to be seeking to boost its rotation. Having already inked CC Sabathia earlier in the winter, the Yanks now appear unlikely to pursue more than one additional starter, though they’ll still have ample financial flexibility to go after any available pitchers.

Meanwhile, the M’s have now kicked off a winter in which they’ll attempt to walk a tightrope act of staying at least reasonably competitive while enhancing their roster’s long-term outlook. Paxton just turned 30 earlier this month, but he’s down to two more season of arbitration control, so he was one of the team’s more obvious assets to market. Previously, the club sent out regular catcher Mike Zunino, another player with two seasons to go until free agency.

In adding Paxton, the Yankees aren’t just getting a highly talented pitcher. They’re getting one at an eminently reasonable rate of pay. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Paxton to earn $9.0MM this winter; if he turns in a great year, he’ll get a nice raise on that amount, but that would also mean the club would be more than happy to pay it. Ultimately, these salary levels land a far sight shy of Paxton’s open-market value — at least, that is, assuming he’s at full health.

At his best, Paxton is among the game’s most dominant rotation pieces. Aptly dubbed the Big Maple, the Canadian southpaw has struck out 11 batters per nine over the past two seasons while averaging a reasonable 2.4 BB/9. That’s rare air for a starter. His ERA ballooned a bit this year to 3.76, owing to a few extra long balls, but he posted a 2.98 mark in 2017. Plus, ERA estimators were quite enamored of his output in the just-completed campaign (3.24 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA).

Of course, this all comes with a caveat. Paxton has never thrown a full MLB campaign, with his 28 starts in 2018 representing a career high. He also just barely (by a third of a frame) passed the 160 innings-pitched threshold for the first time last year. Health issues remain an ever-present concern and will perhaps dictate the outcome of this swap from the Yankees’ perspective.

The Yankees will hang their hat on the fact that Paxton mostly avoided significant injury issues in 2018. He missed time after being struck by a comebacker, which was obviously just an instance of poor fortune, after previously being sidelined for lower back inflammation. Those sorts of maladies aren’t the real concern, though. Previously, Paxton has missed time with forearm, shoulder, and biceps problems.

The good news is that Paxton has delivered a pristine version of his power arsenal when he has been able to unleash it. He has averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer over each of the past two seasons. And his swinging-strike rate is still on the rise, moving up to a personal-best 14.3% in 2018. If he can carry that forward, even if it’s not quite for a full 32-start campaign, the Yankees will likely be quite pleased with this move.

Turning back to the Mariners side, it’s still a bit difficult to know whether this portends quite a few more moves or whether the club will mostly pick around the edges from this point forward. Certainly, the organization has other marketable assets — as well as some under-water contracts that it might look to unload. It was only two weeks ago that we first learned of the Mariners’ somewhat surprising plans to move some key MLB assets this winter. The shape of the final roster remains very much in doubt, though GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today that the club is focused on a 2020-2021 window. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter).

It’s worth noting that, in both this and the Zunino swap, the M’s have brought back players who figure to represent near-term MLB contributors. If things break right, then, the club could rebound quickly. Here, the key asset is Sheffield, a 22-year-old southpaw who originally went to New York along with Clint Frazier in the swap that send Andrew Miller to the Indians. Scouts and prospect hounds alike have long loved Sheffield for his stuff. But questions remain as to whether he’ll every full command the full arsenal sufficiently to reach his ceiling at the game’s highest level.

It’s not as if Sheffield tends to have difficulties finding the zone. He has averaged only 3.4 walks per nine innings over his five minor-league seasons, which is hardly elite but also isn’t a concerning number, standing alone. But an inability to fully dictate the location of your pitches can obviously tell in other ways, particularly against major-league hitters.

Thus far, Sheffield has managed just fine with his explosive three-pitch mix, which is led by a fastball that occasionally edges into the upper-nineties. In 2018, he turned in a 2.48 ERA in 116 games at the Double-A and (mostly) Triple-A level. He also briefly debuted in the bigs; while things didn’t go well in his three relief outings, that hardly means much for the future.

While he’s not nearly so well-known as Sheffield, Swanson is also a near-term possibility for the Mariners’ active roster. He’ll need to take a 40-man spot from the jump, as he’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The 25-year-old joined Sheffield at Triple-A this year after a dominant stop at the penultimate level of the minors to begin the season.

After arriving at the Yanks’ top affiliate, Swanson worked to a 3.86 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He was touched for ten long balls, but otherwise impressed with 9.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Prospect watchers tend to view Swanson as a back-of-the-rotation possibility, rather than any kind of frontline starter, but that’d certainly be a welcome outcome for the Mariners.

Thompson-Williams, meanwhile, reached the High-A level last year at 23 years of age. He did turn in an impressive output there, slashing .290/.356/.517 and racking up 17 home runs and 17 steals in 375 plate appearances. That represented a big leap forward for the former fifth-round pick, so it remains to be seen whether he can continue to develop as he reaches the high minors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

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The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.

Astros Interested In James Paxton

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The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.

As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.

Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.

Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.

While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.

Looking For A Match In A James Paxton Trade

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Earlier this week, the Mariners and Rays made the offseason’s first major trade, a five-player swap in which catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Mallex Smith changed teams. That may prove to be the first of multiple noteworthy deals Mariners trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto orchestrates this winter, especially considering his intention to “re-imagine” his team’s roster. The majority of that roster is available for trade, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported prior to the Zunino deal, though he added that outfielder Mitch Haniger, closer Edwin Diaz and left-handed Marco Gonzales appear safe.

The most interesting name missing from Heyman’s list is Gonzalez’s fellow southpaw starter James Paxton, who’s Seattle’s closest thing to an ace. With the 30-year-old Paxton down to his final two seasons of team control, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has heard that the Mariners will trade him this winter.

While Paxton does have a checkered injury history and has only exceeded 160 innings in a year once (last season, when he tallied 160 1/3), the fireballer is still one of the majors’ premier lefties. Paxton has averaged just 24 starts and 139 innings a season since 2016, his breakout campaign, but the Big Maple nonetheless racked up 11.9 fWAR during that three-year span. In that regard, only 12 starters bettered Paxton, who’s sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino. And since 2017, Paxton ranks fourth among starters in K/9 (11.06), fifth in FIP (2.95), 11th in K/BB ratio (4.61) and tied for 21st in ERA (3.40).

Paxton’s projected to earn $9MM in 2019, a far lighter commitment than the best free-agent starters will rake in this winter, which only adds to his appeal. Acquiring Paxton would still sting a team to a degree, of course, as that club would presumably need to part with a big-time haul to land him. In shipping Paxton out, perhaps Seattle would significantly boost a farm system which has long languished at the bottom of the majors.

Here’s a look at potential suitors for Paxton, going from best to worst record in 2018:

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Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards

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With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.

While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:

  • Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
  • There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
  • So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
  • Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
  • We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.

Dipoto Downplays Possibility Of Mariners’ Rebuild

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7:33pm: Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns at the GM Meetings that this morning’s reports were “clearly over-dramatized,” adding that the Mariners are “just too talented” to completely tear down the roster. That said, Dipoto also conceded that the Mariners are “open-minded to different ways we can get better” and expressed a desire to “re-imagine” the team’s roster while “gather[ing] as much talent as we can.”

Generally speaking, it seems as though the Mariners will be open-minded to moving shorter-term assets — Paxton and Zunino both have only two years of control remaining — while also trying to gather some controllable talent in order to supplement the pieces of the roster that remain into 2019 and beyond. The GM also suggested that the Mariners won’t rule out a reunion with Nelson Cruz, whom he called a “super human being” and a “wildly productive” player. But the team also has other needs, specifically in center field, Dipoto noted.

The column is rife with quotes from Dipoto on the offseason direction and the agile approach the Mariners will take toward offseason roster maneuverings and is worth a look for Mariners fans and those hoping that various Mariners players become available in trades.

10:48am: Facing a difficult path to improving their roster sufficiently to compete in the AL West, the Mariners are said to be weighing at least a partial sell-off of veteran assets. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that the organization is “considering a full-fledged teardown,” while Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times characterizes the situation as one in which the club will pursue the somewhat less dramatic path of “culling the roster of a few players who could actually bring back some younger talent to the organization” while also maintaining a competitive assortment of MLB players.

Whatever the precise course, it’ll be a fine line to walk, and one that’ll require deft handling from Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. It’s worth noting that both reports emphasize the variability remaining in the situation. The M’s won’t simply be auctioning players off, it seems. Rather, the club is going to be demanding value. And as Divish notes, there’s also a strong countervailing wind to the concept of a rebuild. The goal, as Dipoto has himself stated recently, is to make a legitimate challenge for a World Series as swiftly as possible. Accordingly, it’s at least possible that the organization will prioritize near-to-the-majors talent over far-away, high-upside prospects.

Regardless, it’s an interesting shift in the market just as it gets underway. No doubt, the allure of the trade market is factoring into the thinking for the Mariners’ front office. That seems to be an element of the Indians’ decision to consider offers on some key veteran pitchers. The market side of the reasoning here isn’t altogether different, though it’s quite a different competitive picture for the Cleveland organization, which still has a very clear path to the postseason. With few top-end starters and relievers available for the highest bidder, there certainly could be some opportunities to achieve value.

All indications of late had been that the Mariners would consider to push to contend. There’s real talent on the roster, to be sure, and the club did just win 89 games even after a late-2018 tailspin. Certainly, the organization’s slate of contract commitments represents that of a contending team, with large and lengthy commitments to several players. Those same factors, though, also can easily be interpreted as supporting a different approach. The 2018 club arguably outperformed its true talent level and still finished 14 games out of first place in the AL West. And a crowded payroll situation makes it hard to imagine ready solutions to some of the team’s ongoing areas of need.

So, what players could be on the move? The premium assets will certainly draw the most attention, though they’ll also be the hardest to pry loose. James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales all come with ample excess value in their control rights. Surely, it would require the right deal to part with any of these players. Of them, Paxton seems the likeliest to move, if only because the others are all controlled for at least four move seasons while he has just two left to go. Indeed, Divish indicates it’s quite likely the power lefty will be shipped out. Diaz is a fascinating potential piece on the market, as he’d easily be the most valuable relief asset available. The 24-year-old just turned in an outstanding season and his trade value was boosted by the fact that he barely missed out on Super Two qualification, which would have greatly increased his overall arbitration earning power. Haniger is likely the team’s most valuable piece, though he might also be the hardest to part with. Moving Segura’s contract might offer a means of both dropping salary and adding younger talent in one fell swoop. There’s really not much reason for the Mariners to consider dealing Gonzales, who is amply affordable and controllable (and also just agreed to an unusual new contract).

Several other players will also surely be of keen interest on the market. Veteran reliever Alex Colome is not as good, or as cheap and controllable, as Diaz, but he’d be quite an interesting alternative to the open market options for clubs needing late-inning relief talent. Several other bullpen assets could hold appeal as well. Backstop Mike Zunino has his limitations as a player, but he’s a talented defender with huge power. It would be rather challenging for the club to move its most expensive veterans, though perhaps contract-swapping arrangements of some kind can be imagined. Plenty of rivals would like to have Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Mike Leake on their rosters, after all, despite their suboptimal recent track records, though certainly the remaining financial obligations would need to be sorted out somehow.

The possibilities, truly, are endless, and will depend in no small part upon precisely what Dipoto and co. are looking to accomplish. It could well be a matter of seeing what’s possible on the market, rather than setting out specifically to prioritize the addition of new talent, say, as opposed to shaving payroll. Given Dipoto’s history of dealmaking, it wouldn’t be surprising to see quite a few moves to re-shape the roster in the coming months.

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