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James Paxton Planning To Retire

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Red Sox left-hander James Paxton plans to retire after this season, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 11-year big league veteran announced the news on Bradford’s Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (X link).

“I’m hoping that we can squeak into the postseason and I get an opportunity to pitch again. But I think, after this season, I’m going to be retiring and moving on to the next chapter,” Paxton said. The 35-year-old called it a “tough” decision because he remains confident in his ability but indicated he feels it’s the right time to “settle in at home.” Paxton told Bradford he has already gotten to work on building a company focused on addressing athletes’ mental health.

While there’s a small chance he gets back on the mound this year, it’s likely his playing career is over. Paxton tore his right calf in mid-August and was placed on the 60-day injured list last month. He’s ineligible to return until the middle of October. The Sox would need to erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card race and likely need to make a run into at least the ALCS for Paxton to be able to get on the mound.

Injuries were an unfortunately frequent occurrence. This season was only the fifth in which he reached 100 MLB innings. Paxton was a very productive pitcher when healthy, highlighted by a four-year peak with the Mariners and Yankees at the end of the 2010s.

The Blue Jays initially drafted Paxton, a British Columbia native who’d eventually earn the “Big Maple” nickname. Toronto selected him 37th overall in the 2009 draft. The sides couldn’t agree to contract terms, however, sending the 6’4″ southpaw back to the draft the following year. Seattle selected him in the fourth round, a move that would pay off a few seasons later.

Paxton was immediately one of the M’s top pitching prospects. He got to the big leagues as a September call-up in 2013, firing 24 innings of 1.50 ERA ball. Paxton battled shoulder and finger injuries, respectively, over the following two seasons. He was limited to 13 starts in each year but managed a sub-4.00 earned run average both times. Paxton topped 100 innings and reached 20 appearances for the first time in 2016, turning in a 3.79 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning.

The following season saw Paxton emerge as an upper mid-rotation starter, at least on a rate basis. He fired 136 frames with a career-best 2.98 ERA while striking out more than 28% of opponents. Paxton continued to miss bats in bunches the following year, when he fanned 32.2% of batters faced with a 3.76 ERA across 160 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 150+ innings, only Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole had a better strikeout rate that year.

That 2018 campaign saw Paxton log the highest workload of his career and included perhaps his two best performances. Paxton no-hit the Jays at the Rogers Centre in May 2018, becoming the second Canadian pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter. That was one of two complete game victories he posted that month, though those arguably weren’t even his best outings. Paxton also struck out a personal-high 16 A’s hitters over seven scoreless innings in the start preceding his no-hitter. Overall, he struck out 51 hitters with a 1.67 ERA across 43 innings that month.

At the end of that season, the M’s traded Paxton’s final two seasons of arbitration eligibility to the Yankees for a three-player return. The headliner, Justus Sheffield, did not pan out. Erik Swanson, included as the secondary piece, developed into a productive reliever. Paxton had a strong first season in the Bronx, tossing 150 2/3 frames of 3.82 ERA ball while punching out nearly 30% of opposing hitters. He started a trio of postseason games for a Yankee team that lost to the Astros in the ALCS. Barring a surprise run from this year’s Sox, those were the only playoff appearances of his career. Paxton fanned 20 while allowing five runs in 13 innings (3.46 ERA).

That was Paxton’s final full season. He sustained a flexor strain during the shortened 2020 season, limiting him to five starts in his walk year. The Mariners brought him back during his first free agent trip on a buy-low $8.5MM deal. Paxton pitched once before his elbow blew out. He underwent Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t pitch again until 2023.

Paxton made 19 starts and logged 96 innings for the Red Sox last season, the second year of a $10MM free agent deal. He returned to the open market and signed with the Dodgers on a contract that eventually paid him $13MM after he hit certain start bonuses. L.A. squeezed him off the roster just before the trade deadline and flipped him back to Boston. Paxton made three starts for the Sox before suffering the calf injury. He’ll finish the year with a 4.40 ERA across 100 1/3 innings between the two clubs.

While the injuries kept Paxton a bit below 1000 innings, he finishes his career with a solid 3.77 earned run average. Paxton recorded his 1000th strikeout against former teammate Justin Turner on July 30. He made 177 appearances, all starts, and compiled a 73-41 record with a pair of complete games. Paxton’s one shutout was a memorable one — the aforementioned no-hitter in his home country. Baseball Reference credits him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while he was worth 19 WAR at FanGraphs. B-Ref calculates his earnings at nearly $50MM. MLBTR congratulates Paxton on a fine career and sends our best wishes on his worthwhile endeavor to help athletes with their mental health.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Select Joely Rodríguez

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The Red Sox announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Joely Rodríguez. Right-hander Greg Weissert was optioned to Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding active roster move. To open a 40-man roster spot, lefty James Paxton was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic was among those to relay the moves on X.

Rodríguez, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox in the offseason. He cracked their Opening Day roster but didn’t post strong results initially. He made 11 appearances for the club with a 6.55 earned run average, the same numbers he had in limited time with them last year.

He was designated for assignment at the end of April and accepted an outright assignment after clearing waivers. He then spent about six weeks on the minor league injured list from the middle of May until late June. That has left him with just 14 1/3 Triple-A innings pitched this year, but with a strong 1.88 ERA. There’s likely a good deal of fortune in there, based on his .175 batting average on balls in play in that small sample. His 20.6% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate in that time were subpar, though he did get grounders at a strong 52.6% clip.

Those rate stats aren’t too far off of his major league track record. In 168 innings dating back to his 2016 debut, he has a 4.82 ERA, 22.8% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 55.7% ground ball rate. He’ll give the club a second lefty in the bullpen alongside Brennan Bernardino. He is out of options but can be retained beyond this season via arbitration if he holds onto his roster spot through the end of the year.

As for Paxton, it’s not a surprise to see him moved to the 60-day IL. He suffered a partially torn right calf muscle last week and manager Alex Cora said it was unlikely that the lefty would be able to return this year. He’s now officially ineligible to be reinstated until the second week of October. Unless the Sox make a deep playoff run and he heals up in the next two months, his season is over.

James Paxton Diagnosed With Partially Torn Calf

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3:10pm: Manager Alex Cora tells the Sox beat that Paxton is a “long shot” to return in 2024 (X link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). The skipper added that Criswell, once healthy, will rejoin the rotation as the team’s fifth starter (X link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).

2:30pm: Red Sox left-hander James Paxton tells reporters that he’s been diagnosed with a partial tear of his right calf muscle (X link via WEEI’s Rob Bradford). The veteran southpaw acknowledged that it could sideline him for the remainder of the year but will still try to rehab in an effort to make it back before the season concludes.

The Sox placed Paxton on the 15-day injured list with a calf strain yesterday. The term “strain” itself, by definition, indicates there is a degree of stretching or tearing, so today’s announcement isn’t a total surprise. That said, the fact that he’s possibly facing an absence of six-plus weeks indicates that it’s a tear of some note — the latest in a long line of injuries that have plagued the talented left-hander throughout his big league career.

Paxton, 35, spent the 2022-23 seasons in Boston. He missed the entire ’22 campaign due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2023 to pitch 96 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $7MM deal with incentives that could take the contract up to $13MM. He unlocked all of those incentives before being designated for assignment and traded to the Red Sox in return for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.

The Sox hoped that Paxton would help shore up an injury-depleted starting rotation, but it’s now possible they’ll receive only three starts from him. Paxton notched a solid 4.09 ERA in his 11 innings following the trade but exited his third and potentially final start after recording just two outs. He was Boston’s lone veterean acquisition prior to the trade deadline, meaning the Sox will again be left to rely on the quartet of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta, with scant depth behind the group. Righty Cooper Criswell has pitched well but has little track record and is currently out with Covid-19. Fellow righty Josh Winckowski has also made a handful of starts and could see further action down the stretch.

Paxton’s injury could open the door for young Quinn Priester, whom the Sox acquired from the Pirates in exchange for infield prospect Nick Yorke. Priester, a former first-round pick and top prospect, has yet to establish himself as a consistently viable big league starter. He’s logged a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 big league innings to this point in his young career, but the 23-year-old has generally fared well in the upper minors — an ugly two-game stint with the Sox’ Triple-A club in Worcester notwithstanding.

It’s a tenuous situation in Boston — one that would blow up in particularly bad fashion were one of Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to go down with an injury of note. Boston traded Chris Sale to the Braves in a regrettable offseason swap that netted infielder Vaughn Grissom. He was “replaced” by right-hander Lucas Giolito, who required season-ending internal brace surgery before the 2024 campaign began. Righty Garrett Whitlock had his own internal brace operation back in May. Depth arms like Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata have also been non-factors this season due to injury.

The Red Sox currently sit in third place in the AL East despite a strong 62-55 record. They’re only two games back in the American League Wild Card hunt, landing .001 percentage points ahead of the 63-56 Mariners but trailing the 65-54 Royals for the final Wild Card spot.

Red Sox Select Chase Shugart, Mickey Gasper; Designate Jamie Westbrook For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. Righty Brayan Bello has been reinstated from the paternity list and left-hander Bailey Horn has been recalled, while the club selected the contracts of right-hander Chase Shugart and catcher/infielder Mickey Gasper. It was reported last night that left-hander James Paxton suffered a right calf strain and he now lands on the 15-day injured list. Lefty Brennan Bernardino has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester, as has righty Brad Keller. A fourth active roster spot was opened with the Jarren Duran suspension, reported earlier today. To open a 40-man roster spot, infielder/outfielder Jamie Westbrook has been designated for assignment. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported Shugart’s promotion on X prior to the official announcement.

Shugart, 27, gets the call to the big leagues for the first time. A 12th-round pick of the Sox in 2018, he has been working his way up the minor league ladder since then. He worked exclusively as a starter through 2021 but has primarily been working out of the bullpen since then.

His initial forays into Triple-A ball didn’t go well, as he posted a 6.82 earned run average at that level in 2022 and then an 8.22 ERA there last year. He’s had more success here in 2024, with a 4.98 ERA in 59 2/3 innings. That’s largely come in a multi-inning capacity, as he’s logged those frames over 28 appearances, including five starts. His 10.9% walk rate is a bit on the high side but he has punched out 26.6% of opponents this year and gotten grounders on 46.8% of balls in play.

Baseball America had Shugart on the back end of their organizational top 30 list back in 2019 and 2020 but not in recent years. The Sox are likely going to be leaning on him for a long man role in the coming days. Paxton suffered his injury after recording just two outs, forcing the bullpen to do yeoman’s work. Bernardino tossed an inning a third while each of Lucas Sims, Luis García and Cam Booser tossed two innings. First baseman Dominic Smith pitched a scoreless ninth with the Sox down 10-2 to the Astros. The Sox also did a bullpen game the day before, with Josh Winckowski covering three innings, Brad Keller eating up four, while Zack Kelly and Chris Martin picked up one each.

All told, the pitching staff is fairly taxed and the Sox don’t have another off-day until August 22, over a week from now. Righty Cooper Criswell went on the COVID IL recently and has an unknown timeline. With Paxton now out as well, the rotation is down to Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta. Perhaps Winckowski will get another shot after throwing three innings on the weekend, or perhaps Criswell can make a quick return. The club also has Quinn Priester on optional assignment and could recall him at some point. But in the meantime, Shugart can sop up some innings, if needed.

Gasper, 28, was also selected in the 2018 draft, but by the Yankees. He came to the Red Sox via the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. He has generally put up positive numbers in a hit-over-power fashion, though he’s always been old for whatever level he’s been playing at. He didn’t reach Triple-A until last year, his age-27 season, and hit .191/.295/.265 in his first 22 games at that level.

This year has gone much better. He’s played 44 Double-A games and 40 at Triple-A. Between those two clubs, he has a 15.9% walk rate, 11% strikeout rate and .341/.458/.559 batting line that translates to a wRC+ of 175.

Despite the massive batting line, Gasper’s not really considered a top prospect, though it would make for a great story if he could engineer a late-bloomer breakout. He has played catcher, first base and second base this year, in addition to a bit of third base time in previous seasons. He figures to slot into the club’s bench mix, giving them depth at various spots.

Westbrook, 29, signed a minor league deal with Boston in the offseason. They selected his contract in June, his first time cracking a major league roster. He has received 48 big league plate appearances so far, hitting just .150/.234/.350 in that small sample. He has always hit well in the minors and that’s still true this year. He has a line of .291/.381/.475 in 71 Triple-A games, drawing walks at a strong 12% clip and limiting his strikeouts to a 17.2% clip.

Defensively, he has played the three non-shortstop infield positions as well as right field this year. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Sox will have no choice but to put him on waivers in the coming days. If any team puts in a claim, Westbrook still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time.

James Paxton Leaves Start Due To Calf Strain

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James Paxton suffered a right calf strain in the first inning of his start today against the Astros, forcing the veteran left-hander from the mound.  Paxton’s fifth pitch of the game got Yordan Alvarez to ground to first baseman Dominic Smith, but Paxton came up limping when leaving the mound to cover first base.

Speaking to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (links to X) and other media after the game, Paxton said he heard a popping sound in his leg.  Paxton was using crutches to move around in the clubhouse, and he’ll get an MRI tomorrow to access the damage.

A trip to the 15-day injured list seems inevitable, and it is up in the air whether or not Paxton will even be able to pitch again in 2024.  Even if the MRI reveals the relatively good news of “just” a lower-grade strain, such injuries can tend to linger.  It is also possible the Red Sox could shut Paxton down for the season if the team falls out of the postseason race — today’s 10-2 loss dropped the Sox three games back of a wild card berth, and extended Boston’s losing streak to four games.

The calf strain is another disheartening turn in a career that has been marked by injuries, as Paxton was on pace to avoid the Major League injured list for the first time since 2013.  He hasn’t dealt with calf issues in the past, though he missed time last year with a pair of right leg injuries, in the form of a hamstring strain and knee inflammation.

Paxton was with the Red Sox during that 2023 season, before signing a one-year, $7MM deal with the Dodgers last winter.  Since Paxton stayed healthy and has made 21 starts (and thrown 100 1/3 innings) in total this season, he earned an extra $6MM in contract incentives, which the Dodgers already covered before he was dealt back to Boston in late July.  The trade was seen as a bit of a surprise given how Los Angeles has been ravaged by rotation injuries this season, and Paxton had a respectable 4.43 ERA in his 89 1/3 innings as a Dodger.  His Statcast numbers, however, were much less impressive, and today’s injury also underlines whatever concerns the Dodgers might’ve had about Paxton remaining healthy.

From Boston’s perspective, the Paxton trade brought a familiar face and some rotation depth back to Fenway Park, but it looks like the Red Sox might have to again scramble to add arms.  Quinn Priester was acquired from the Pirates in another pre-deadline trade and could be called up from Triple-A, or Brad Keller could be stretched out to work in piggyback situation, or as a bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Cooper Criswell will miss at least the rest of the next week due to a placement on the COVID-related injury list, while Nick Pivetta is expected to make his next turn in the rotation after his last start was skipped to provide extra rest.

Red Sox Designate Reese McGuire, Chase Anderson For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. Left-hander James Paxton and catcher Danny Jansen, both recently acquired via trade, are active with the club. To make room for those two, the Sox designated right-hander Chase Anderson and backstop Reese McGuire for assignment. That opened two roster spots and they used one of those to claim right-hander Yohan Ramírez, recently designated for assignment by the Dodgers, off waivers.

McGuire, 29, has been with the Red Sox since 2022, generally serving as a light-hitting backup catcher but with strong defensive grades. He has seven Defensive Runs Saved in his career while each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to be a strong framer.

But when he steps out from behind the plate and stands beside it, the results are less impressive. He has a career batting line of .252/.300/.364, which translates to a wRC+ of 79. He’s been even worse this year, with a .209/.280/.295 batting line and 59 wRC+.

That production likely inspired the Sox to go out and get Jansen, pairing him with Connor Wong behind the plate. Since McGuire is out of options, he’s been nudged off the roster entirely. He’s making a fairly modest salary of $1.5MM and can be retained for another year via arbitration. His poor results this year mean that he won’t be in line for a huge raise, so perhaps some club will be interested in him as a glove-first backup.

Anderson, 36, is a veteran who signed a modest $1.25MM deal with the Sox for this year. He’s been in a long relief role with the Sox, tossing 52 innings over 27 appearances. He’s allowed 4.85 earned runs per nine this year. His 8.5% walk rate is around average but his 15.6% strikeout rate and 32.5% ground ball rate are well below par. If it weren’t for a .229 batting average on balls in play, he probably would have allowed more runs across the plate.

The Sox will have until Tuesday’s trade deadline to deal either McGuire or Anderson, though they probably won’t find much interest in either, which could lead to both players being on waivers. Anderson has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. McGuire has more than three but less than five years of service, meaning he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary to hit the open market. That means he might stick with the Sox as non-roster depth if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Ramírez, 29, has tossed 43 2/3 innings this year between the Mets, Orioles and Dodgers, frequently bouncing around due to his out-of-options status. In that time, he has a 5.98 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. All those rate stats are pretty close to league average, so his .339 BABIP and 60.8% strand rate might be pushing his ERA up a bit. HIs 4.18 FIP and 3.77 SIERA point to better results going forward.

Since the righty is out of options, the Sox will have to install him onto the active roster, meaning someone from their bullpen will have to be optioned whenever he reports to the team. He can be retained for three more seasons after this one if he hangs onto his roster spot.

Dodgers Trade James Paxton To Red Sox

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The Red Sox have added some depth to their rotation, acquiring lefty James Paxton from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar, the teams announced Friday. Boston transferred right-hander Bryan Mata to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported yesterday that the Red Sox, who need some rotation stability and who employed Paxton from 2022-23, were expected to pursue him.

Paxton was something of a surprise DFA by the Dodgers. He’s made all 18 starts asked of him this season and posted a respectable, if unspectacular 4.43 earned run average. Those numbers closely mirror the 4.50 ERA he logged in a similar sample of 96 frames with Boston last season, but the rest of the 35-year-old’s profile doesn’t look nearly as strong.

After averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball with the Sox last season, Paxton is down to 93.2 mph in 2024. He’s seen his strikeout rate plummet from 24.6% to 16.4%, while his walk rate has soared from 8% to 12.3%. Paxton’s average exit velocity has also jumped by a mile and a half per hour, from 89.3 mph with the Sox to 90.8 mph with Los Angeles. His overall hard-hit rate has climbed in similar fashion, from 39.6% to 43.3%. He’s gotten by with a career-low .267 average on balls in play and homer-to-flyball rate that’s also notably lower than his career marks.

Whether Paxton can sustain his passable results with that lackluster array of under-the-hood numbers is far from clear, but the Sox also don’t necessarily need him to perform like an front-of-the-rotation arm. Boston’s depth behind Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell is thin, and several of those arms (Houck, Crawford, Criswell) are either approaching or have already established new career-high workloads. Adding a stable back-end arm surely holds plenty of appeal for a team in that situation —  particularly given Paxton’s affordable contract.

Paxton inked a one-year deal with $7MM guaranteed and another $6MM in attainable bonuses. However, $3MM of that guarantee came in the form of an up-front signing bonus that’s already been paid out. He’s also already unlocked all $6MM of incentives ($2MM for making the Opening Day roster and another $4MM based on his number of games started). As such, the Red Sox will only owe him the prorated portion of that $4MM base between now and season’s end (approximately $1.42MM).

That modest sum bumps Boston’s payroll to an approximate $180MM. Their luxury-tax ledger is a good bit higher, checking in at an estimated $218.1MM prior to this swap (via RosterResource). Paxton will push the Sox just shy of $220MM, leaving chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff about $17MM of breathing room between their current number and the first luxury tax threshold. Breslow & Co. should have ample room to make further additions, even if ownership is reluctant to cross that first tax threshold. Boston, in addition to seeking rotation depth, has been in the market for bullpen upgrades and a right-handed bat.

For the Dodgers, the trade of Paxton, who ranks third on their team in innings pitched, clearly isn’t a sign of selling. Los Angeles is in first place in the NL West and stands as a veritable lock to make the postseason. But the Dodgers also welcomed Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week.

That pair of high-quality veterans joins a youthful trio of Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan in the rotation at the moment, but the Dodgers are also expecting Yoshinobu Yamamoto to return in August and Walker Buehler to return sometime before season’s end. Between that depth and their outspoken pursuit of an “impact” starting pitcher on the trade market (in the words of general manager Brandon Gomes), Paxton was pushed out of the mix.

In exchange for the final two-plus months of Paxton’s services, the Dodgers will receive the 17-year-old Bolivar. He signed with the Red Sox as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela just this past January, receiving a bonus of $25K. He’s not considered a high-end prospect in Boston’s system, but that sort of lottery-ticket return is to be expected for a veteran pitcher who was designated for assignment.

Bolivar, already six feet tall and listed at 175 pounds, has gotten out to a strong start in his professional debut. He’s appeared in 31 games with the Red Sox’ Rookie-level Dominican Summer League affiliate and slashed .270/.364/.423 with three homers and nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (21). He’s a right-handed hitter who’s played primarily third base but has also logged 26 innings across the diamond at first base.

FanSided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two sides were engaged in trade talks. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported a deal had been finalized. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe added details on the Dodgers’ return.

Red Sox Interested In James Paxton

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The Red Sox head into the trade deadline looking to deepen their starting staff, and WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that there’s a “strong likelihood” Boston will be in the mix for left-hander James Paxton, whom the Dodgers just designated for assignment yesterday. The Sox are quite familiar with Paxton, who spent the 2022-23 seasons in the organization.

Injuries prevented Paxton from taking the mound for the Sox in 2022 and led him to exercise a player option for the 2023 season. He bounced back with 19 starts and 96 innings — both his highest marks since 2019 in New York. Paxton’s 4.50 ERA wasn’t much to look at, though metrics like SIERA (4.11) and FIP (3.77) painted a friendlier picture. He fanned a sharp 24.6% of his opponents last season against a tidy 8% walk rate.

Things haven’t gone as well in a similar workload with the Dodgers. Although Paxton’s 18 starts, 89 1/3 innings and 4.43 ERA all generally mirror last year’s numbers with the Red Sox, the rest of his numbers are markedly worse. Paxton averaged 95.2 mph on his fastball last season, per Statcast, but is down to 93.2 mph on average in 2024. His strikeout rate has plummeted to 16.4%, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.3%. Paxton is getting fewer whiffs, fewer grounders and yielding far more hard contact in 2024 than he did in 2023. The primary difference has been the lefty’s dip in home run rate (9.5% HR/FB, 1.11 HR/9) and a career-low .267 average on balls in play.

Even if Paxton’s K-BB and batted-ball profiles are diminished relative to his 2023 levels, he’s still been a perhaps surprisingly durable arm this year. He’s made all 18 starts asked of him and has yet to land on the injured list. He’d also be highly affordable from a financial standpoint. He’s playing the season on a one-year deal that came with a $4MM base salary, $2MM bonus for making the Opening Day roster and $3MM singing bonus. Paxton’s deal also allowed him to earn $4MM off incentives based on games started. The lump sum of that signing bonus, Opening Day bonus and all of his incentives have already been paid out. The Red Sox (or another new club) would only owe him the prorated remainder of that $4MM salary — about $1.48MM as of this writing.

The Red Sox currently have Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello in the rotation. Righties Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski have both made starts out of the fifth spot in the rotation. The Sox have lost Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock and depth starter Chris Murphy to season-ending surgeries. Bryan Mata is on the injured list and just had a setback. Paxton would at least give the Sox a stabilizing force at the back of the rotation. (The Red Sox have also reportedly looked into the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon as an option.)

Gomes: Dodgers Seek “Impact” Rotation Arm

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Starting pitching is known to be a Dodgers priority heading into next week’s trade deadline, and general manager Brandon Gomes didn’t shy away from that in speaking with the Dodgers’ beat last night. Gomes and manager Dave Roberts publicly discussed the “difficult” decision to designate James Paxton for assignment but acknowledged that with the slate of arms they have returning from the injured list (to say nothing of a potential trade acquisition), “now would be the best time to see if there’s interest” in Paxton before the deadline (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). The Dodgers hope to trade Paxton, Ardaya reports, pointing out that a new team would only owe the lefty the prorated portion of his $4MM base salary; Paxton’s $3MM signing bonus, $2MM roster bonus and full slate of incentives have already been paid out.

On the team’s search for additional rotation help, Gomes made clear that the Dodgers aren’t prioritizing marginal upgrades or back-end innings eaters to help patch things over for the rest of the regular season. “Targeting starting pitching, but it’s going to be an impact-type arm,” Gomes said of his club’s approach to the trade deadline.

That’s a tall order, of course. The starting pitching market is generally thin. White Sox ace Garrett Crochet and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty are the two most impactful names expected to be widely available. High-profile targets like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and, to a much lesser degree, the Cubs’ Justin Steele have at least been the subject of some speculation, but neither is expected to be traded by next Tuesday. As a rotation-hungry club with a deep stock of controllable young talent and high-end prospects, the Dodgers could put together a compelling offer to test the Tigers’ conviction on Skubal, but any such deal is a long shot and would face steep competition from the Orioles and other similarly positioned contenders.

[Related: Top 50 trade candidates for the 2024 MLB trade deadline]

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez recently reported that Crochet sits atop the Dodgers’ deadline wish list. Given the lack of “impact” arms who can be controlled beyond the current season, that’s hardly a surprising development. Any team that acquires Crochet will have some trepidation about his workload — the lefty’s 107 1/3 innings this year exceed his combined career total since being drafted in 2020 — but there’s no denying his dominance. The former No. 11 overall pick sports a 3.02 ERA (2.35 FIP, 2.45 SIERA). His 35.2% strikeout rate is tops among the 164 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings this season. His 5.4% walk rate ranks 23rd among that same sub-set.

As evidenced by the Paxton DFA, the L.A. rotation is in a state of flux. The Dodgers are welcoming Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week. Top prospect River Ryan made his MLB debut yesterday and tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the injured list until at least mid-August but is still expected to pitch again this season. There’s hope that recently optioned Bobby Miller can return to form and that former top starter Walker Buehler can come back from the injured list and still contribute late in the season. Other young, less-proven options for the Dodgers include Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski. Stone, in particular, has emerged as a key arm with 18 starts of 3.19 ERA ball.

If everyone’s healthy, the Dodgers arguably already have a formidable playoff staff — but that’s a sizable “if.” Crochet would add more of a question mark to the bunch than a definitive ace, given his workload questions, but it’s also possible the Dodgers could utilize him as a multi-inning reliever late in the season or even get him some closing work. That’s speculative, to be clear, but manager Dave Roberts stopped short last night of referring to team saves leader Evan Phillips as his “closer,” Jack Harris of the L.A. Times tweets. Phillips has hit a rough stretch recently, yielding nine runs in his past 7 1/3 innings.

A pitcher like Crochet could be an “impact” arm in either a starting or relief role. He likely holds extra appeal to the Dodgers, given not only his two extra seasons of club control but his bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary. RosterResource projects that the Dodgers already have $326MM worth of luxury obligations, placing them in the top tier of penalization. As a team paying the tax for a third consecutive season, they’re subject to a 110% overage fee on any new players acquired. Crochet will have about $258K of his salary yet to be paid out come deadline day; he’d only cost the Dodgers (or another maximum-penalty CBT team) about $542K in additional salary.

Dodgers Designate James Paxton For Assignment

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3:40pm: The Dodgers made it official, announcing that they have selected Ryan and designated Paxton for assignment.

2:42pm: The Dodgers are designating veteran left-hander James Paxton for assignment, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The team has not yet formally announced the move.

Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another.

It’ll be a move that catches some off guard. Paxton has a solid enough 4.43 ERA and despite a laundry list of injury troubles in recent years has been the Dodgers’ healthiest starter. He’s tied with Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone for the team lead with 18 starts but sits well below both righties in terms of total innings, as he’s averaged fewer than five frames per start.

Paxton’s earned run average also belies some far less-encouraging numbers. His 16.4% strikeout rate is nearly six percentage points shy of the 22.3% league average, while his 12.3% walk rate is way north of the 8.2% average. He’s benefited from the help of a .267 average on balls in play that stands as the lowest mark of his career despite surrendering a career-high 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 43.3% hard-hit rate that represents the second-worst mark of his big league tenure. Paxton has been hit particularly hard of late; dating back to June 5, he carries a 6.03 ERA in 37 1/3 innings (eight starts). Stretch that endpoint to mid-May, and Paxton has been torched for a 5.82 ERA in his past 11 starts — all while averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing.

The Dodgers are set to welcome both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back to their rotation this week. Glasnow has been out since July 9 with lower back tightness and will end up only requiring a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list. Kershaw has yet to pitch this season while rehabbing from last November’s shoulder surgery. That veteran pair will join Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as starting options for manager Dave Roberts, though the Dodgers are also rumored to be promoting top pitching prospect River Ryan for his debut this week. Both Ryan and Kershaw will require the Dodgers to open 40-man spots, and it seems Paxton’s DFA will create one of those two vacancies.

Beyond Kershaw and Glasnow, the Dodgers hope to have Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto back from the injured list at some point next month. Right-hander Bobby Miller was just optioned amid some ongoing struggles but gives the team another rotation option. And, of course, starting pitching is reportedly one of the Dodgers’ top priorities heading into next week’s trade deadline. It’d be a surprise if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman didn’t augment his rotation in some capacity.

As for Paxton, he’ll now either be released or traded within the next week. The veteran lefty has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and retain his full salary, so the Dodgers likely won’t even try to outright him. It’s easy enough to see a team on the hunt for rotation help show some interest, but at the same time it’ll be tough for any club to surrender much in a trade given Paxton’s recent struggles, his relatively notable salary and the fact that once he’s released, he’d be available for nothing more than the prorated league minimum.

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