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Rosenthal’s Latest: Moustakas, Merrifield, Duffy, Fulmer, Drury

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The Cardinals have “renewed interest” in Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest notes column (subscription required).  It isn’t clear how seriously interested St. Louis is, however, and Rosenthal notes that adding Moustakas would lead to a crowded infield situation.  Matt Carpenter would have to be moved to either second base or first base, displacing either the light-hitting but defensively brilliant Kolten Wong, or the hard-hitting Jose Martinez and his sub-par first base glove.  One option could be to flip Martinez for some immediate help in another area, Rosenthal suggests, listing the Twins as a potential suitor for Martinez — Minnesota, of course, is a fringe contender at best right now, but Martinez would be a long-term piece at first base and DH.  On the other hand, Martinez has been perhaps the Cardinals’ best hitter this season and he is controllable through the 2022 season.  This is just one of many scenarios that could play out involving these players, of course, as the Cards (like every front office in the game) is weighing dozens of potential scenarios as we approach the trade deadline.  St. Louis still seems to be in the planning stages, as Rosenthal writes that the Cards “have yet to engage seriously on any one player.”

Here are some more hot stove items from Rosenthal’s column…

  • The Brewers were interested in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield this past offseason and are once again inquiring on his services.  The late-blooming Merrifield has continued to establish himself as a solid everyday player this season, batting .284/.358/.401 over 339 PA, plus 16 steals in 20 chances.  Second base has been a problem spot for Milwaukee, and while the Brewers recently acquired Brad Miller as infield depth, Merrifield would represent a more solid upgrade at the keystone.  Though the Brewers could also need rotation help, Rosenthal reports that they haven’t discussed Danny Duffy as part of their talks with Kansas City.
  • Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer is drawing a lot of interest from not just contenders like the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees, but also from rebuilding teams like the Padres.  Clearly Fulmer would be a fit for a lot of teams considering both his ability and his years of control; he isn’t arbitration-eligible until this winter, and he has four years of arbitration coming as a Super Two player.  Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman wrote earlier this week that it could be unlikely that Fulmer is actually dealt, as Detroit has naturally put a big price tag on the righty in trade talks.  San Diego is deep in prospects, however, so the Friars could be one of the few teams who wouldn’t immediately balk at the Tigers’ demands.
  • Brandon Drury’s return to the Yankees came with some service time implications, as Rosenthal notes that New York could have gained an extra year of control over the utilityman by keeping him in the minors until Sunday.  It’s possible Drury could still be demoted again at some point this season, and if so, he wouldn’t qualify for free agency until after the 2022 season.  This could potentially make Drury more valuable to other teams in trade talks, as the Yankees are deep in long-term infield options and might see Drury as expendable.

Phillies, Royals Have Discussed Mike Moustakas

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The Phillies and Royals have held at least preliminary trade talks involving Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The level of interest is not entirely apparent and there’s no indication at this point that the sides are nearing an agreement. But the K.C. scouting department is said to be taking a look at the Phillies system to identify targets.

With a $5.5MM salary this year and $1MM buyout on a 2019 mutual option, Moustakas is an affordable target. Of course, that’s probably not the chief concern for the Phils, who have been much more willing to burn money than prospect capital of late. In recent years, the club has placed numerous hefty salaries onto its payroll, but in most cases hasn’t packaged significant young talent or taken on long-term financial commitments.

The Philadelphia organization unquestionably has the assets to get Moustakas; what’s not yet clear is whether he’s really the player they want. Firmly in the picture in the National League East, the Phillies are said to be a possible pursuer of top summer trade candidate Manny Machado — a player they may also covet in free agency at season’s end. The club has also been connected to Rangers third bagger Adrian Beltre.

Moustakas, 29, has trailed off at the plate of late after surging to open the year. Still, his .255/.310/.467 slash and 15 home runs through 332 plate appearances fall right in line with his composite work from the prior three campaigns. He has perhaps even been a bit unfortunate; while his .255 BABIP is in line with his unusually low career rate, Moustakas is credited by Statcast with a .383 xwOBA that greatly exceeds his .325 wOBA.

There’s not much mystery at this point as to Moustakas’s profile. He’s got excellent power, middling on-base ability, and not-insignificant platoon splits (which have widened this year). Defensively, he has graded out as a positive this year, but he has mostly played within range of average over his career.

It’ll be interesting to see how the deadline plays out for the Phillies. There are lots of possibilities, both at the hot corner and elsewhere on the roster. As Salisbury indicates, the team may well not show much interest in parting with top prospects to make deals. But few, if any, clubs in baseball can match the Phillies in near and long-term financial flexibility, opening numerous creative avenues to improve a roster that has already looked solid through the season’s halfway point.

Royals Designate Ryan Goins For Assignment

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The Royals have designated infielder Ryan Goins for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for Jorge Bonifacio, who has completed serving his 80-game PED suspension, the team told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via the Kansas City Star’s Maria Torres). Royals reporters indicated yesterday that Goins would be the likely roster casualty, with Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweeting at the time that Goins took some time after yesterday’s game to shake hands with all of his teammates and say his goodbyes.

Goins, 30, landed with the Royals on a minor league deal after being non-tendered by the Blue Jays in the offseason. He spent parts of five seasons serving as a high-quality defender at both middle-infield positions for the Jays, but his work at the plate never matched the quality of his defense. That proved to be the case in Kansas City as well, where Goins received 120 plate appearances but batted just .226/.252/.313.

Goins is a career .228/.274/.333 hitter, but Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at 25 runs above average at second base in 2093 career innings and five runs above average at shortstop in 1370 innings as a Major Leaguer. Goins also has experience at third base in addition to very brief cameos at first base and in the outfield corners. He’s out of minor league options, so any team that claims him or trades for him will need to carry him on the Major League roster or else try to immediately pass him through waivers themselves.

Royals To Reinstate Jorge Bonifacio

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The Royals will reinstate outfielder Jorge Bonifacio from the restricted list tomorrow, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. He’d been serving an 80-game PED suspension and will need to be added back to the 40-man and 25-man roster once activated. The corresponding move, according to Flanagan, will likely involve Ryan Goins. Indeed, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic tweets that Goins was “making the rounds” and shaking his teammates’ hands in the clubhouse after today’s game.

Bonifacio, 25, will likely be given an opportunity to receive regular work in the outfield. The former top prospect had a solid debut in 2017, hitting .255/.320/.432 with 17 homers, 15 doubles and a triple in 422 plate appearances. He logged 743 innings in right field for Kansas City last season, plus another 57 in left and eight in center. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-4) both pegged him as a slightly below-average defender, while Ultimate Zone Rating (+1.1) viewed him a bit more favorably.

Bonifacio has been able to begin gearing up for his return in the minors over the past two weeks, logging a dozen games with Triple-A Omaha and hitting quite well. Through 54 plate appearances, he’s batting .404/.481/.553 with five doubles and a triple.

The suspension for Bonifacio will prove costly if he is ultimately able to cement himself as a big league regular. He didn’t accrue Major League service time for the 80 games he missed, and by the time he’ll be activated from the disabled list, there won’t be enough days remaining in the season for him to reach a second full year of MLB service. As such, the suspension will push his eligibility for both arbitration and free agency back by a full year. Bonifacio would have been arb-eligible following the 2019 season and qualified as a free agent following the 2022 season. Instead, he’ll now have to wait until after the 2020 season for arbitration and won’t be a free agent until the completion of the 2023 season.

Goins, meanwhile, is out of minor league options, so the Royals can’t send him to the minors unless he first clears waivers. That makes it seem likely that he’ll be designated for assignment tomorrow, though the club could also opt to trade or release him as a means of opening a roster spot for Bonifacio. The 30-year-old Goins has given Kansas City has given the Royals quality defense through 224 innings at second base and has seen brief action at third base and shortstop as well. But, Goins has also struggled to the tune of a .226/.252/.313 batting line in 120 trips to the plate.

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.

Amateur Notes: July 2 Class, Draft, Indians, Pirates, Royals

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The international market is ready to get cranking again, with a new July 2nd class just around the corner. As usual, Ben Badler of Baseball America and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com are providing plenty of insight. Badler just released his ranking of the 50 best international prospects, with lengthy scouting reports as well as anticipated signing teams and bonuses where available (a BA subscription is required). Sanchez, meanwhile, has his own top 30 rankings and scouting reports posted. On the top of Badler’s rankings is Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, who has yet to be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. The other key distinction in his case is that he’s much older and more advanced than the bulk of the available talent. Indeed, Badler believes that Mesa is ready for an upper-minors placement, meaning he may not actually be far from the majors if he can translate his skills into professional production. Sanchez pegs Venezuelan catcher Diego Carataya as the top talent in the class, though perhaps only by way of technicality; because Mesa is not yet formally a free agent, he’s absent from the MLB.com list entirely.

Of course, when it comes to bringing in new talent, the immediate action remains centered around the 2018 amateur draft class:

  • With a deadline of July 6 to work out bonuses, there’s still plenty of time left for unsigned players to come to terms. At present, there are a fair number of first-rounders who’ve yet to lock up agreements. That includes four first-round players: No. 4 pick Nick Madrigal (White Sox), No. 5 pick Jonathan India (Reds), No. 7 pick Ryan Weathers (Padres), and No. 8 pick Carter Stewart (Braves). There’s no indication to this point that the respective teams will have trouble finalizing things. As always, you can catch up on the latest signings with our 2018 Amateur Draft tag.
  • Over the coming weeks, of course, we could begin to see some situations develop that warrant closer attention. It seems there’s at least a bit of uncertainty between the Brewers and their top pick, Brice Turang. The same can be said with regard to a few other talented young players. Ethan Hankins, the No. 35 overall selection, is still in talks with the Indians, as GM Mike Chernoff says and MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. But he also has an arrangement in place with Chipola College’s JuCo baseball program that would enable him to play a year and then re-enter next year’s draft, Doug Freeman of Prep Baseball Report tweets. Similarly, Pirates draftee Gunnar Hoglund — who went one pick after Hankins — has begun attending summer school orientation at Ole Miss, per Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (via Twitter).
  • Elsewhere, the status of Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich remains uncertain as he participates in the finals of the College World Series. But Royals GM Dayton Moore had some noteworthy comments on the situation recently, leaving many to wonder if the Kansas City organization will make a move to add a player whose abilities aren’t questioned, but carries a highly controversial status as a convicted sexual offender. Indeed, Moore has already spoken on Heimlich quite a bit, as Rustin Dodd of The Athletic explains (subscription link). It’ll ultimately come down to an ownership call that has yet to be made, according to Dodd, who writes: “The Royals are not close to signing Heimlich, nor do they have any framework for a deal in place, according to a source familiar with the situation.” It’s hard to know just why the organization (or, perhaps, Moore personally) decided to air its feelings on this subject before reaching a decision. Now that he has, though, perhaps the public reaction will help inform the ultimate course of action.

Heyman’s Latest: O’s, Machado, Dodgers, Tribe, Marlins, Herrera, Taillon

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Here’s the latest from FRSBaseball.com’s Jon Heyman…

  • The Dodgers will continue to monitor Manny Machado’s availability, as L.A. still has interest in the star shortstop.  Machado and the Dodgers have been linked in trade rumors ever since Corey Seager was lost for the season, and with Los Angeles getting back into the postseason hunt after an early-season slump, Machado continues to look like a logical trade candidate.
  • The Indians are looking for the bullpen help, and they are one of multiple teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider.  Cleveland’s relief corps has been a major weak spot for the team, and though Andrew Miller will eventually be back from the DL, it isn’t any surprise that the Tribe is looking for further upgrades.  Barraclough (who took over as Miami’s closer earlier this month) and Steckenrider are both having good seasons, though both have exhibited some control issues.  The Marlins are “open for business” in discussing virtually everyone on the roster, though they’re less likely to deal young, controllable players like Barraclough and Steckenrider for anything but a large return.  Beyond the bullpen, Heyman also thinks the Tribe could look for a right-handed bat for the bench.
  • The Braves were one of the teams interested in Kelvin Herrera before the Royals dealt the reliever to the Nationals.  Kansas City simply “saw the Nats as a better match” for a trade, and as Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos implied in a podcast appearance earlier this week, it seems like Atlanta wasn’t willing to meet the Royals’ asking price.  It remains to be seen how this decision could impact the NL East race, as the Braves not only saw Herrera join a division rival, but their own closer (Arodys Vizcaino) on the disabled list today.  Heyman does speculate about one silver lining for the Braves, however, as the fact that they’ve already had some talks with the Royals could help lay groundwork for a Mike Moustakas trade.  Overall, Heyman notes that the Braves would prefer to wait before making any big deals, as the team still isn’t quite sure what will end up being its biggest deadline need.
  • More on Herrera, as Heyman reports that the Astros didn’t make a play for the right-hander.
  • There is “no chance” that the Pirates would trade Jameson Taillon, a source tells Heyman.  Pittsburgh could yet decide to move some veterans at the deadline but Taillon seems untouchable, given his good season and four remaining years of team control.
  • The Pirates had some discussions with Andrew McCutchen about a longer-term extension following the outfielder’s MVP season in 2013.  At the time, McCutchen was just two years into what ended up being (thanks to a club option) a seven-year, $65.25MM deal with the Bucs.  According to Heyman, McCutchen had some regret about signing that deal, which kept him from hitting the open market after the 2015 season and ended up being an enormous bargain for Pittsburgh.  Further extension talks didn’t go far, however, as McCutchen and his team made mention of Joey Votto’s ten-year, $225MM deal with the Reds as a potential comparable.

AL Notes: A’s, BoSox, Canha, Royals, Heimlich, Tigers, Jays, Rangers

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The banged-up Athletics will turn to veteran Edwin Jackson to fill a spot in their rotation, but they’re on the hunt for more starting depth, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The Athletics have had discussions with the Red Sox, who are seeking outfield depth and have “unsuccessfully asked” the A’s about Mark Canha, according to Slusser. The 29-year-old Canha has been effective this season, his last pre-arbitration campaign, with a .250/.322/.452 line and nine home runs in 208 plate appearances. It’s unclear which pitcher(s) the A’s requested in their discussions with Boston, though Slusser adds that the teams could revisit talks in the coming weeks.

More from the AL:

  • The Royals are considering a pursuit of controversial pitching prospect Luke Heimlich, GM Dayton Moore announced this week (via Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star). “We continue to seek information that allows us to be comfortable in pursuing Luke,” Moore said of Heimlich, an undrafted free agent from Oregon State. Based solely on talent, the 22-year-old Heimlich was worthy of drafting – perhaps with a high selection. However, as a 15-year-old, he was convicted of molesting his 6-year-old niece. While Heimlich told Kurt Streeter of the New York Times last month that “nothing ever happened,” teams have still stayed away from adding him. Judging by the Royals’ interest, that may change, though Gregorian argues that they shouldn’t sign Heimlich. Moore, for his part, noted: “The easy thing is to wipe your hands of it and don’t even look into it or deal with it. We’re going to continue to look into it. I think that’s what good organizations do. I think that’s what good people do. And we try to be both.”
  • While Tigers general manager Al Avila revealed last week that he’d listen to trade offers for both right-hander Michael Fulmer and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, either would be difficult to acquire, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press relays. The Tigers want “premium” returns for both, writes Fenech, who regards left-hander Francisco Liriano, closer Shane Greene, shortstop Jose Iglesias and outfielder Leonys Martin as Tigers who are more likely to end up on the move by the July 31 non-waiver deadline. Greene would generate the most interest of the four, Fenech suggests, as a quality reliever who’s cheap ($1.95MM salary) and under control via arbitration through 2020. The 29-year-old righty has pitched to a 3.57 ERA with 10.19 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and 19 saves in 22 tries this season.
  • Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson is likely to remain on the disabled list for at least another week, per Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. Donaldson won’t return until June 29 at the earliest, which would be a month after left calf tightness sent him to the DL on May 29. The 32-year-old has been on the DL twice this season (once with a shoulder issue), which – combined with a decline in performance – has hurt his trade value and likely his stock as an impending free agent. When he has suited up, Donaldson has hit a disappointed .234/.333/.423 with five homers in 159 PAs.
  • Rangers right-handed pitching prospect Alex Speas has suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament and will undergo Tommy John surgery, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram writes. Speas will miss the rest of this year and a large portion of next season as a result. The 20-year-old, whom MLB.com ranks as the Rangers’ 22nd-best prospect, pitched to a stellar 2.20 ERA with 15.38 K/9 against 6.59 BB/9 over 28 2/3 innings at the Low-A level in 2018.

Royals Activate Lucas Duda

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The Royals have activated first baseman Lucas Duda from the disabled list and optioned outfielder Paulo Orlando to Triple-A, tweets Rustin Dodd of The Athletic.

Duda had been sidelined since May 14th due to plantar fasciitis. Although manager Ned Yost had initially given reporters a three-week stint as the high end for a DL stint, the recovery obviously took almost twice that long. The injury is often difficult to predict, of course; it’s affected other notable baseball players for unexpected lengths of time, including Albert Pujols, Corey Dickerson, and, recently, Jay Bruce.

Regardless, today’s return gives Duda ample time to establish his value as a potential trade chip for the rebuilding Royals prior to the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July. After an injury-plagued second half in 2017, the long-time Mets slugger was only able to secure a one-year, $3.5MM pact with Kansas City. Even prior to this season’s injury, Duda hasn’t shown the same type of power output he managed across the 2014-2015 campaigns, when he mashed 57 homers and put up a .249/.350/.483 batting line. His walk rate this year is barely half of his career average, as well. If he can return to form, there are plenty of teams who would likely be interested in adding him for such a small salary.

Notably, 26-year-old Hunter Dozier survived the roster crunch created by Duda’s reinstatement. Though he’s hit just .227/.281/.353 across 128 plate appearances and figures to see a dramatic reduction in his playing time, the team clearly favors him on the active roster over the 32-year-old Orlando, who’s made 907 trips to the plate for the Royals since debuting in 2015.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/22/18

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Here are Friday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Twins’ Triple-A affiliate announced that outfielder Nick Buss has been released. The 31-year-old Buss won a Pacific Coast League batting title in 2017 when he hit .348/.395/.541 with 11 homers for the Padres’ top affiliate, but he’s struggled to a .239/.309/.340 slash through 178 PAs in Rochester this season. Buss has appeared in the Majors with both Los Angeles teams, hitting a combined .180/.229/.300 in a tiny sample of 110 plate appearances and is a lifetime .302/.360/.452 hitter in parts of six seasons at the Triple-A level.
  • The Royals’ Double-A affiliate announced yesterday that they’ve traded minor league outfielder Brandon Downes to the Braves. A return wasn’t specified, though presumably there’ll be cash or a player to be named later going back to the Kansas City organization to complete the deal. The 25-year-old Downes was Kansas City’s seventh-round pick in 2014 but entered the 2018 season with just five games played above Class-A Advanced. He’s hitting .198/.284/.365 in 111 PAs between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this season (including a 1-for-4 debut yesterday for Atlanta’s Double-A affiliate. Baseball America rated him as Kansas City’s No. 24 prospect four years ago, praising his solid-average speed and above-average power potential, though Downes has yet to deliver on that upside.
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