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Royals Designate Matt Sauer For Assignment

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The Royals have designated right-hander Matt Sauer for assignment and selected the contract of left-handed reliever Sam Long from Triple-A Omaha, per a team announcement. Sauer was selected out of the Yankees organization in December’s Rule 5 Draft. The Royals will have a week to trade him or place him on waivers, and if he goes unclaimed he must be offered back to the Yankees for $50K. If he lands with a new team, his Rule 5 restrictions will roll over to that new club.

A second-round pick by the Yankees back in 2017, the now-25-year-old Sauer made his big league debut when he first took the mound for Kansas City this season. He held opponents to just two runs through his first 9 1/3 MLB innings but did so with an ugly ratio of just four strikeouts to eight walks. The lack of command and a put-away pitch proved problematic in the weeks since. Dating back to April 29, Sauer has been torched for a dozen runs in seven innings.

Overall, Sauer pitched 16 1/3 innings for the Royals and yielded a 7.71 ERA. He fanned only 10.7% of his opponents against an ugly 13.1% walk rate in that time. Were the Royals at or near the bottom of the division, perhaps they’d have been more patient, but at 29-19 on the year and standing in second place, Kansas City clearly felt that they couldn’t continue the experiment if it meant getting such minimal production out of a bullpen spot.

Long, 28, has spent the past three seasons in the majors with the Giants (2021-22) and A’s (2023). He’ s pitched 128 innings for the two Bay Area clubs, logging a 4.92 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 40.5% grounder rate. The southpaw averages 93.8 mph on his heater and couples that four-seamer with a curveball as his primary breaking pitch. Long used a changeup quite a bit during his Giants days but swapped that out for a slider with Oakland last season.

Though he doesn’t have a great track record in the majors, Long has been nails with the Royals’ Omaha affiliate this season. In 20 2/3 innings, he’s pitched to a tiny 1.31 ERA with an impressive 27.4% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate. He hasn’t given up run since April 25, rattling off 8 1/3 shutout innings with nine punchouts and just one walk during that hot streak.

Long opened the season on a similarly impressive run of nine straight scoreless frames with a 12-to-3 K/BB ratio. Add in 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball with a 48.4% strikeout rate and 3.2% walk rate in spring training (15-to-1 K/BB), and it’s become increasingly difficult for the Royals to overlook his contributions to date.

Royals Showed Interest In Luis Arraez Prior To Trade To Padres

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The Marlins got a surprisingly early jump on the trade market this offseason, hammering out a rare May trade of significance when they shipped infielder Luis Arraez to San Diego last Friday in exchange for a package of four players. It’s not entirely shocking given both the Marlins’ awful start to the season and that their trade partner was the hyper-aggressive Padres, whose president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, leaves no stone unturned when a big-name player is even remotely available. However, it seems the Padres weren’t the only club sniffing around Arraez despite the early nature of his entry to the trade market; Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that the Royals also showed interest in Arraez before the Padres pulled off that swap.

Rosenthal emphasizes that talks with the Kansas City were preliminary and did not advance far. Still, the mere interest from Kansas City is telling. The Royals had an aggressive winter that saw them spend $109MM across several free agent signings, and now that they’re out to a 20-15 start to the season, it seems they’re interested in further bolstering the club.

Arraez is a limited defender who’s below-average at second base, solid enough at first base and of course has the bat to handle designated hitter duties. The Royals presumably wouldn’t have used Arraez at first base much, thanks to the presence of Vinnie Pasquantino. In all likelihood, Kansas City would’ve given Arraez the bulk of his playing time at second base and designated hitter.

Instead, the Royals will hope for 26-year-old second baseman Michael Massey to continue his recent hot streak and look to get DH/outfielder Nelson Velazquez back to his 2023 form. Velazquez bashed 14 homers in 147 plate appearances for the Royals last year after being acquired in a deadline swap with the Cubs, but he’s hitting just .215/.284/.344 with a 30.4% strikeout rate this season as the team’s primary designated hitter.

Even looking beyond Arraez specifically, the mere fact that Kansas City was poking around the market for one of the presumably few players genuinely available on the trade market at such an early stage in the season signals that the Royals won’t necessarily be content with their offseason additions and any in-house reinforcements that might surface. It also likely signals a willingness to deal from the top end of their farm system. The Royals’ system isn’t viewed as particularly strong, so they’d have had to expend some of their most notable prospects in order to pique Miami’s interest.

Ultimately, news of interest from a team that didn’t wind up trading for a player only carries so much weight. The Royals’ interest in Arraez will be little more than a footnote that’s perhaps worth keeping in mind when he reaches free agency. But it’s also a portent for how the Royals could operate in the weeks and months ahead, and it gives some credence to the idea that they’ll be in the mix when other high-profile bats become available this summer. Whether it was expressed to the Royals that the Marlins would be willing to pay down the remainder of Arraez’s contract isn’t clear. Kansas City opened the season with a roughly $116MM payroll, per RosterResource, and has previously run its payroll as high as $143MM (under the previous ownership regime).

The Royals’ offseason activity already pointed to a win-now mindset, and so long as they remain in or on the periphery of postseason contention, it seems they’ll continue to keep their foot on the gas.

Royals Notes: Marsh, Lynch, Selby, Hernandez

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The Royals have been without right-hander Alec Marsh for just over a week now, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters yesterday (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that even though Marsh is expected to throw just 60-65 pitches in a rehab start today, the team is hopeful he’ll be able to return to the big league rotation after just one rehab appearance assuming today’s outing goes well.

That timeline would put Marsh, 26 later this month, in line for a minimum stay on the injured list and line him up to take the ball in Anaheim against the Angels on Friday. If the righty is able to return after a minimum stint, it would provide a huge boost to the Royals as they look to capitalize on a hot start that has seen them go 20-14 to this point in the season, putting them just 1.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Prior to his placement on the shelf due to an elbow contusion late last month, Marsh had been a big part of the club’s success. Through five starts this season, the right-hander sports a sterling 2.70 ERA and a 3.26 FIP in spite of a lackluster 15.9% strikeout rate. While he’s posted a strong 6.5% walk rate to this point in the season, the youngster’s .235 BABIP allowed and minuscule 3.2% home run/fly ball ratio both suggest that regression could be on the way for him, as do his 4.66 xERA and 4.39 xFIP. Even in the event that Marsh’s results regress back to that of a mid-to-back of the rotation arm, however, it would still be a substantial improvement over his rookie campaign. Marsh struggled badly in 74 1/3 innings of work in the majors last year, posting a 5.69 ERA with a near-matching 5.70 FIP despite a 24.9% strikeout rate.

While Marsh prepares for his return to the big leagues, the Royals announced today that they’ve recalled left-hander Daniel Lynch IV, optioning right-hander Colin Selby to make room for Lynch on the active roster. Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star relayed last night that Lynch was slated to start this afternoon’s game against the Rangers. Lynch, 27, was once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport but has struggled at the big league level to this point in his career, with a 5.19 ERA and 4.79 FIP in 252 innings of work across 51 starts dating back to his debut during the 2021 season. Those numbers include nine starts at the big league level last year where he posted a 4.64 ERA and 5.17 FIP amid rotator cuff and shoulder issues.

Lynch returned to action during Spring Training but ultimately lost out on the fifth starter role in Kansas City to Marsh, leaving him relegated to the Triple-A level to open the season. He’s struggled badly through six starts at the level this season, posting a 5.86 ERA in 27 2/3 innings of work while striking out just 17.3% of batters faced. Nonetheless, the Royals will turn to him for today’s start, where he’ll take on the tough assignment of facing the reigning World Series champion Rangers.

Marsh isn’t the only pitcher who’s making progress in their attempt to return from the injured list. Per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, right-hander Carlos Hernandez is beginning to ramp up his activity during a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level after missing the start of the season due to a shoulder impingement. The Royals have mostly enjoyed steady production from their bullpen this season thanks to veteran additions such as John Schreiber, Tyler Duffy, and Nick Anderson, but righty Matt Sauer has struggled badly in a long relief role to this point in the season and the healthy return of Hernandez, who struck out 25.7% of batters faced last year en route to a solid 4.28 FIP, could offer Kansas City a more reliable option for length out of the bullpen.

The Royals’ Outfield Drought

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The Royals’ 20-13 start to the season on the heels of an active offseason that saw Kansas City spend more than $100MM on nine free agents – to say nothing of trades acquiring relievers John Schreiber and Nick Anderson – has plenty of people buzzing.

The Royals are right in the thick of things in a largely improved AL Central that looks more like a four-horse race than the perennially weak division that’s been won in a romp in each of the past three seasons (Twins in 2023, Guardians in 2022, White Sox in 2021). Every team except the again-rebuilding White Sox has a legitimate chance at postseason play as of this writing.

A frequently maligned Royals pitching staff is at the heart of Kansas City’s early run. Lefty Cole Ragans hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was following the trade to acquire him from the Rangers last year but has nonetheless looked like a quality big league starter. Brady Singer looks more like the 2022 breakout version of himself than the 2023 version that struggled to a 5.52 ERA.

Free-agent signees Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have been a needed boon. Lugo’s strikeout rate is down, and Wacha has been more steady than great, but they’ve provided needed, competitive veteran innings. Even fifth starter Alec Marsh has been sharp, though his K-BB profile is rather worrying and he’s on the shelf at the moment after being struck by a comeback liner.

The bullpen has been sound, though free-agent additions Chris Stratton and Will Smith have both struggled. Even still, K.C. relievers are eighth in the majors with a 3.28 ERA. Like some of the starters, their lowly 18.4% strikeout rate (second-lowest in MLB) and 10.2% walk rate call into question whether that ERA can be sustained. But the early results have still contributed to a nice start.

The Royals, to no one’s surprise, are getting strong offensive commitments from perennial slugger Salvador Perez, talented young first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and emergent face-of-the-franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.

Put more concisely: a lot is going right in Kansas City! It’s a good time to be a Royals fan – perhaps not relative to 2014-15 but certainly relative to the eight years since that consecutive pair of World Series appearances.

If there’s one area that has to remind Royals fans of that eight-year drought, however, it’s the team’s once-again middling outfield. Kansas City outfielders are hitting .190/.254/.323 on the season. The resulting 63 wRC+ indicates they’re 37% worse than league-average at the plate as a group. That ranks last in Major League Baseball.  Let's get into the grisly details.

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Royals Place Alec Marsh On Injured List, Recall Will Klein For MLB Debut

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The Royals announced Thursday that righty Alec Marsh is headed to the 15-day injured list with a right elbow contusion. Right-handed reliever Will Klein has been recalled to take his spot on the roster and will be making his MLB debut the first time he gets into a game.

Marsh took a comeback liner from Blue Jays rookie Addison Barger off his arm in yesterday’s game and exited the contest (video link). X-rays came back negative, though Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweeted after last night’s game that Marsh had severe bruising and an imprint of the seams was visible on his arm where he’d been struck. He’ll sit down for a couple weeks to let that subside before stepping back into the rotation.

Selected with the 70th overall pick in 2019, Marsh won the Royals’ fifth starter job over veteran Jordan Lyles in spring training and has had a fine start to his season. He’s taken the ball five times and pitched 26 2/3 innings with a 2.70 earned run average. His 15.9% strikeout rate and 36.3% grounder rate are both well below average, but Marsh also touts a strong 6.5% walk rate on the season. He’s not likely to sustain this level of success without upping his whiffs and/or grounders, and he’ll surely wind up seeing more than three percent of his fly-balls leave the yard (which has been his HR/FB rate in 2024). Even with those red flags, he still looks like a viable fifth starter in a vastly improved Kansas City rotation.

The 24-year-old Klein was Kansas City’s final pick in the shortened, five-round 2020 draft. He came off the board with the No.  135 overall selection and has steadily risen through the minor league ranks since. Klein logged a 3.38 ERA and fanned a third of his opponents in Double-A last year before reaching Triple-A and limping to a 5.66 ERA with a bloated 14.4% walk rate in 35 innings down the stretch. He’s opened the 2024 campaign with 11 shutout frames in Triple-A Omaha, however. Klein’s command remains an issue, evidenced by a 13.6% walk rate, but he’s whiffed nearly 28% of his opponents this season and kept the ball on the ground at a solid 44% rate.

Klein entered the season ranked 18th among Royals prospects at both Baseball America and MLB.com. Both outlets credit him with a plus-plus heater (70-grade on the 20-80 scale) that sits in the upper 90s and frequently reaches triple digits. Klein also garners praise for a plus slider/cutter and above-average curveball but unsurprisingly draws below-average reviews for his command of that potent arsenal. He has late-inning potential if he can get to even average command, but he’s thus far walked 16% of his opponents in pro ball.

Royals Release Mike Brosseau

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The Royals released infielder Mike Brosseau from his minor league contract last night. The move was announced by Kansas City’s Triple-A club in Omaha this morning.

Brosseau, 30, signed with Kansas City over the offseason. He appeared in 12 games this spring, hitting .156 without an extra-base knock. Those struggles carried into the regular season with Omaha. In 33 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, he posted a .107/.212/.143 slash.

That’s clearly not the way in which Brosseau wanted to start his season. Still, he has enough of a track record that he might be able to find another minor league deal elsewhere. Brosseau appeared in the majors in each season between 2019-23. He was an above-average hitter off the bench for the Rays over his first two years and produced a solid .255/.344/.418 line in 70 games for the Brewers two seasons ago. Last year was a challenge, as he hit .205/.256/.397 in 29 games before Milwaukee released him. Brosseau subsequently landed with the NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines but only mustered a .191/.218/.297 slash in Japan.

Despite his recent struggles, Brosseau has a .249/.344/.455 mark over parts of five Triple-A seasons. While he hasn’t hit righties well in the majors, he’s managed a .265/.326/.464 line and 17 homers in 383 MLB plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That could attract attention from teams looking for righty-hitting infield depth.

Royals Select Tyler Duffey

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1:35pm: The Royals announced that Duffey’ contract has indeed been selected from Omaha. Left-hander Anthony Veneziano was optioned to open a spot on the active roster.

Regarding Lyles, the team understandably hasn’t disclosed the nature of his personal matter, but it sounds as though he could be in for a notable absence. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that he’ll “likely be sidelined for some time.”

9:05am: Veteran right-handed reliever Tyler Duffey will join the Royals for tonight’s game against the visiting Blue Jays, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The team will need to formally select Duffey’s contract.

Kansas City already has an open spot on its 40-man roster. The team announced over the weekend that right-hander Jordan Lyles has been placed on the temporarily inactive list to tend to an undisclosed personal matter. Their transaction log at MLB.com further specifies that Lyles has now been moved to the restricted list — a procedural move that’ll open a 40-man roster spot while he’s away from the club. The 33-year-old Lyles has had a nice start to his season, tossing five shutout innings after moving from the rotation to the ’pen. He’s fanned three hitters and allowed only two hits and two walks.

Duffey, also 33, was a staple in the Twins’ relief corps from 2017-22 and peaked as a high-end setup option in Minnesota from 2019-21. Over that three-year period, he tossed 144 innings with a 2.89 ERA while punching out 29.8% of his opponents. Duffey’s fastball dipped in 2022, however, and his results slipped along with that loss of velocity. He yielded a jarring eight home runs in 44 innings while pitching to a 4.91 ERA before being designated for assignment and cut loose. Duffey pitched two innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen last season but spent the rest of the year with their Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, where he posted a 3.47 ERA in 49 1/3 frames.

The Royals signed Duffey to a minor league contract over the winter. Upon reporting to spring training he had a health scare, when his intake physical revealed a cancerous mole on his shoulder. The right-hander underwent a procedure to remove that melanoma, and he’s thankfully been cancer-free since — though at the time he revealed the issue to reporters, he noted that he’d be receiving routine checks for the foreseeable future.

Duffey has had a nice start to his season in Triple-A Omaha, pitching 8 1/3 innings and allowing three runs (3.24 ERA). He’s walked too many hitters, dishing out a free pass to five of his 37 opponents (13.5%), but he’s also whiffed 10 (27%) and kept the ball on the ground at a hearty 54.5% clip.

Dave McCarty Passes Away

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Former major league first baseman/outfielder Dave McCarty has passed away after a cardiac event, the Red Sox announced. He was 54.

A Stanford product, McCarty was the third overall pick in the 1991 draft by the Twins. Baseball America ranked the 6’5″ right-handed hitter as a top 25 prospect in the sport over the next two seasons. McCarty reached the majors in May ’93. He played parts of three seasons in Minnesota, hitting .226/.275/.310 before being traded to the Reds. Cincinnati flipped McCarty to the Giants around six weeks later. He played parts of two seasons with San Francisco before again finding himself on the move, this time to Seattle.

McCarty had his most productive year in 2000 with the Royals. He appeared in a career-high 103 games and turned in a .278/.329/.478 batting line with 12 homers. He bounced to the Devil Rays and A’s before landing with the Red Sox on a waiver claim in 2003. McCarty played in 89 games as a role player for the World Series winning team the following season. He hit four homers, including a walk-off shot to center field against the Mariners in May. He finished his playing career after the ’05 season and worked as an analyst on NESN for the next few years.

Over parts of 11 years in the majors, McCarty played in 630 games. He hit .242/.305/.371 with 36 home runs, 68 doubles and 175 RBI. He suited up for seven teams, saw some action in the postseason in 2003, and collected a World Series ring the following year. MLBTR joins others around the game in sending our condolences to the McCarty family, his friends and former teammates.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?
Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)
Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)
Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)
Royals 9.70% (883 votes)
Mets 5.32% (484 votes)
Total Votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)
Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)
Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)
Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)
Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)
Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)
Total Votes: 10,021

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

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We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

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