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Keegan Akin

Examining The Orioles Rotation

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For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.

Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.

Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.

Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.

Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.

What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.

The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.

On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.

Orioles Activate Jose Iglesias From 10-Day IL

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The Orioles have activated shortstop Jose Iglesias from the 10-day injured list, one of multiple transactions announced today by the team.  Infielder Ramon Urias and southpaw Keegan Akin have been optioned to the Orioles’ alternate training site, while the O’s selected the contract of right-hander Cesar Valdez.  In addition, outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. cleared waivers (Smith was designated for assignment earlier this week) and was outrighted to the alternate site.

Iglesias’ return from a left quad injury comes after a minimum 10-day absence, as his original placement was backdated to August 16.  Baltimore will now get perhaps its most unexpectedly hot bat back in the lineup, as Iglesias was off to a fantastic .400/.414/.564 start through his first 58 plate appearances.

Valdez signed a minor league deal with the Orioles over the offseason and is now on track to appear in his first Major League game since the 2017 season.  His 30 2/3 innings with the A’s and Blue Jays that season marked a return to the Show from an even longer absence, as Valdez’s previous MLB experience came in a nine-game stint with the Diamondbacks in 2010.  In between these hiatuses from the big leagues, Valdez has a long track record in the Mexican League, as well as eight games in the Chinese Professional Baseball League and 861 1/3 career minor league innings with the A’s, Blue Jays, D’Backs, and also the Marlins, Astros, and Pirates.

Orioles Place Wade LeBlanc On 60-Day Injured List

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The Orioles have placed southpaw Wade LeBlanc on the 60-day injured list due to a stress reaction in his throwing elbow, the team announced.  Left-hander Keegan Akin has been called up from the team’s alternate training site in a corresponding move.

LeBlanc will see his season end after just 22 1/3 innings, including an outing last Sunday that saw him depart the mound due to injury before the first inning was over.  It was a tough stretch for LeBlanc in Baltimore, with an 8.06 ERA largely fueled by the six homers allowed during his 22 1/3 frames of work.  Home runs have been something of a constant issue for LeBlanc over his 12 big league seasons, though the problem has spiked over the last two years in particular, as LeBlanc has a 2.1 HR/9 over his last 143 2/3 MLB innings.

Baltimore signed LeBlanc to a minor league contract in the offseason, so he will earn the prorated portion of an $800K salary for reaching the Orioles’ active roster.  The O’s expected to LeBlanc to eat some innings and provide some veteran experience for their young pitching staff, though today’s news could quite possibly mark the end of LeBlanc’s tenure with the club.

Akin might be the most obvious candidate to fill LeBlanc’s spot in the rotation, though the Orioles have some time to make a decision since LeBlanc’s next turn isn’t until Saturday.  A second-round pick in the 2016 draft, the 25-year-old Akin has posted some solid innings in Baltimore’s farm system and he already made his MLB debut earlier this season (a three-inning relief outing on August 14).

Orioles Recall Keegan Akin, Option Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles announced today that they’ve promoted left-hander Keegan Akin to the Major League roster. To make room, outfielder Cedric Mullins has been optioned to the team’s alternate training site. Akin, 25, is set to make his MLB debut.

It’s possible that Akin will in fact start tomorrow’s game against the Nats, though on the other hand manager Brandon Hyde could still opt for a bullpen game instead. Either way, Akin, regarded by MLB Pipeline as the Orioles’ 13th-best prospect, is in line to make his Major League debut.

The product of Western Michigan University was Baltimore’s second-round draft choice in 2016, and he’s made a quick ascent through the minors since then, spending all of last season at Triple-A. In four minor-league seasons, he’s averaging 9.9 K/9, though he’s been somewhat prone to walking batters. His minor-league ERA is a solid 3.78, with last year’s 4.73 mark at Triple-A the highest of his career.

Per MLB Pipeline, some of those Triple-A struggles can be attributed to an increasing reliance on his breaking and offspeed pitches, which Akin threw more often than ever last season. His mid-90s fastball is probably still his best and most consistent pitch, though the changeup is a valuable offering against right-handed batters. Akin also throws a slider.

Mullins, meanwhile, had gotten off to a dreadful start to the year, with just a single hit through his first 13 at-bats—good for a .277 OPS. After a respectable debut in 2018, other O’s outfielders like Dwight Smith Jr., Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander have pushed Mullins to the periphery of the outfield mix in Baltimore.

Mid-Atlantic Notes: Orioles, Mountcastle, Diaz, Nationals

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Keegan Akin, Ryan Mountcastle, Dean Kremer, and Bruce Zimmermann weren’t expected to make the Opening Day roster for the Baltimore Orioles, but with the first baseball of the season on the horizon, the Orioles have the chance to reevaluate, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles will have to balance service time concerns and the fear of rushing youngsters into an uncertain landscape with the stark fact that the game’s highest level is the only level available for competitive play this season. Prospects can continue to work out, either independently or as part of the 60-man extended rosters, but to get game reps, the majors is the only game in town. Mountcastle, coming off a .312/.344/.527 season in Triple-A, could find himself on the major-league roster, even if the Orioles would prefer – in a vacuum – to allow him more development time elsewhere.

  • Yusniel Diaz presents a similarly interesting case for the O’s, per Kubatko. Like Mountcastle, Diaz was expected to make his ML-debut at some point, but unlike Mountcastle, the Cuban outfielder has yet to appear higher than Double-A. Should they choose a more judicious approach, Baltimore can certainly make do with Anthony Santander, D.J. Stewart, Austin Hays, and Dwight Smith Jr. in the outfield. Still, every decision for the Orioles has to be made with the future in mind, and they’ll have to decide whether exposing someone like Diaz to major league pitching earlier than planned will benefit his long-term development. With Trey Mancini out for the year, there are plenty of at-bats to go around for corner outfield candidates.
  • Elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic, if the Nationals can lean on their big four in the rotation as they did in last year’s postseason, everything should be hunky-dory for the champs, per Byron Kerr of MASN. Of course, Manager Davey Martinez put those boys through a grind last October, with Patrick Corbin pushed to the limit as a swingman, and Max Scherzer’s shoulder barely holding up long enough to get through game seven of the World Series in Houston. The long layoff should help Scherzer, Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, and Anibal Sanchez avoid a World Series hangover, but the bullpen looks stronger as well. They’ll get a full season from Daniel Hudson, won’t have to lean as hard on Sean Doolittle, and Will Harris joins the team from Houston to shore up the backend. Doolittle has been one of the more vocal ballplayers during the pandemic, but as of now, no Nats have decided to sit out the season.

Players Added To 40-Man Roster: American League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from American League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

AL West:

  • The Athletics made just one addition to the 40-man roster, righty Daulton Jefferies, which resulted in the DFA of righty Jharel Cotton (more on that move here).
  • The Rangers will add at least four players to their 40-man, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Infielder Sherten Apostel, outfielder Leody Taveras, and hurlers Demarcus Evans and Tyler Phillips are all reportedly set to get a slot. Taveras is the most exciting name of this bunch; by the reckoning of some observers, he’s one of the club’s best prospects. Apostel came over in the Keone Kela trade. The two pitchers are upper-minors arms who could contribute in 2020.
  • There’s 40-man movement elsewhere in Texas as well. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that the Astros have tacked on four players: Taylor Jones, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. The last of those is the one that came from the farthest reaches of the prospect map (half a season of High-A ball); clearly, the ’Stros see him as an up-and-comer and were worried other teams would as well. Jones had a strong season at Triple-A and could fight for a bench spot. Javier and Paredes could be in the MLB bullpen mix after running up the farm ladder with high strikeout rates in 2019.
  • The Angels have selected second baseman/outfielder Jahmai Jones and lefty Hector Yan, according to the club. Both players (Jones – No. 6; Yan – No. 17) rank among the Angels’ top 20 prospects at MLB.com. The 22-year-old Jones is a 2015 second-rounder who spent the past two seasons at the Double-A level, where he hit .234/.308/.324 in 544 plate appearances in 2019. Yan, a 20-year-old native of the Dominican Republic, rose to Single-A ball this past season and notched a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with a whopping 12.22 K/9 against 4.29 BB/9 over 109 innings.

AL Central:

AL East:

  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and righty Thomas Hatch were the Blue Jays’ pair of roster additions on Wednesday. Toronto jettisoned Tim Mayza and Justin Shafer from the 40-man roster in a pair of corresponding moves, as explored at greater length here.
  • The Orioles announced that they’ve selected the contracts of left-hander Keegan Akin, right-hander Dean Kremer, infielder/outfielder Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Ryan McKenna. Mountcastle, a former first-rounder, has long been considered among the organization’s most promising minor leaguers. Akin posted a down year in Triple-A in 2019 but has generally been successful and is viewed as a near-MLB ready arm.
  • The Red Sox have added infielders C.J. Chatham and Bobby Dalbec, outfielder Marcus Wilson, and lefties Kyle Hart and Yoan Aybar to their 40-man, the team announced.The most hyped farmhand there is Dalbec, whom MLB.com ranks as the Red Sox’s second-best prospect. The 24-year-old reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2019 after obliterating Double-A pitching, and he posted a .257/.301/.478 line with seven home runs and 29 strikeouts against just five walks over 123 trips to the plate.

AL East Notes: Vlad Jr., Walker, Orioles

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Though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is laying waste to Double-A pitching, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that the organization is not planning to bring him to the Majors just yet. Guerrero only just turned 19, but he’s obliterated Eastern League pitching at a .388/.452/.624 clip with three homers, nine doubles, a triple and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through 105 plate appearances. Atkins explains, however, that the team still sees some areas for improvement in other aspects of his game. “That’s just offence, right, when you say statistically,” says Atkins. “…And it’s only a month of performance above A-ball, as well. … Right now, we’re entirely focused on Vladdy as the best possible third baseman he could be, the best possible base-runner, of course offensive player, and teammate. And right now, we currently have a very good third baseman on our major-league team.”

Theoretically, the Blue Jays could split Guerrero and Josh Donaldson in a timeshare between third base and DH, though Atkins indicated a desire to get Guerrero as many reps as possible. The GM also stressed that service time and arbitration considerations aren’t impacting Guerrero’s timeline. (Indeed, he’s already been in the minors long enough to delay free agency by a year.)

Here’s more from the division…

  • Despite his struggles and a sudden glut of infielders in the Bronx, Neil Walker is in no danger of losing his roster spot, Yankees GM Brian Cashman tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Cashman points to Walker’s lengthy and consistent track record in the Majors in plainly stating that he “[doesn’t] see Walker as a guy to release, eat (his salary) or trade.” Walker is hitting .171/.233/.195 through 90 plate appearances, and the Yankees will eventually have Brandon Drury back from the disabled list, where he’ll join Walker, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Ronald Torreyes in the infield mix. It’s not clear how the Yankees will manage that on-paper surplus.
  • Chris Tillman’s struggles are putting the Orioles in an increasingly difficult spot, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but the organization presently has little in the way of alternatives that are ready to step into the big league rotation. Tillman tossed seven shutout innings and allowed one hit last week, but he was clobbered by the Angels last night and pulled after recording just three outs and watching his ERA balloon to 9.24. Kubatko suggests that Double-A lefty Keegan Akin could eventually be an option, though he’s made just five starts above A-ball. Speculatively, right-hander David Hess is off to a respectable start in Triple-A and is on the 40-man roster. But other options, both on the 40-man and of the non-roster variety, are struggling in the upper minors. Tillman’s struggles could eventually force the team’s hand, but it doesn’t sound likely that he’s on the verge of being cut loose.
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