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Lance McCullers Jr.

Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

Astros Notes: Brown, Espada, Rotation, Caratini, Hader

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The Astros’ streak of consecutive postseason appearances ended in 2025. A poor second half, highlighted by a late sweep at the hands of the eventual division-champion Mariners (in Houston, no less), left the ’Stros on the outside looking in for the first time since 2016. Despite a disappointing finish to the season, it doesn’t seem like major changes are coming to the organization’s leadership. Speaking to reporters at a season-end press conference, general manager Dana Brown suggested both he and manager Joe Espada would return in 2026.

Brown declined to definitively comment on his own status, stating only: “I’m the GM of the Astros, and that’s what I would expect to be tomorrow, the next day and the next day” (audio link to the full 27-minute press conference, courtesy of SportsTalk 790). On Espada, he provided a clearer answer, stating: “Joe is the manager. Joe is under contract [for 2026].”

Any change up top would be at least somewhat surprising. Brown was hired as general manager in Jan. 2023 and has only had three full seasons and two full offseasons at his current post. Espada was elevated to the manager post for the 2024 season, following Dusty Baker’s retirement. While we’ve seen occasional instances of executives and managers having leashes that short, most are provided a lengthier runway after coming aboard with a new organization.

It’s possible there’ll be some changes further down the ladder. Brown vowed Sunday to conduct a “full assessment” and to “think about the entire operation.” Changes in the coaching staff and/or on the player development front haven’t decisively been ruled out. “The season ended 48 hours ago,” said Espada. “We are trying to have conversations and see how we’re going to move forward. That’s where we’re at right now.”

With regard to the roster itself, there’ll be clear turnover. Framber Valdez and Victor Caratini are free agents. Houston has a massive class of 14 arbitration-eligible players. Mauricio Dubon, Bryan Abreu, Ramon Urias, Luis Garcia, Steven Okert and Isaac Paredes are all eligible for the third time this winter (Paredes as a Super Two player who’ll be eligible once more after the ’26 season). Jesus Sanchez, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are all eligible for the second time. Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Bennett Sousa and Hayden Wesneski are eligible for the first time.

Not everyone from that group will return, of course. Garcia suffered another significant elbow injury late in the 2025 season. Urias and Sanchez struggled badly after being acquired at the trade deadline. McCormick tallied just 116 plate appearances and turned in his second consecutive poor year at the plate.

Possible non-tender/trade candidates aside, the most consequential departure will be Valdez — a rock in the Houston rotation since 2020. The Astros won’t outright close the door on a reunion, but Valdez figures to command the type of long-term contract that the Astros have reserved for position players only under Jim Crane’s ownership. Houston hasn’t gone beyond $95MM guaranteed to any pitcher under Crane, and that was to reliever Josh Hader. Lance McCullers Jr.’s ill-fated five-year, $85MM extension is the largest pact Crane has given to a starting pitcher.

“I think it’s going to be headed up with [Hunter] Brown,” the GM said when asked about his rotation. “We’re going to have some conversations, like we’ve had in the past, with Valdez. We’ve got some young guys. We’re going to see what they can do, and we’re going to have some other guys coming back off the IL.”

Both Brown and Espada praised the work Cristian Javier did in his return from Tommy John surgery and spoke of him as an important piece of the 2026 rotation. Righty AJ Blubaugh was also mentioned as a potential factor on next year’s staff. McCullers drew praise for making it back to the field after an arduous rehab process spanning more than two years, but Brown suggested only that McCullers will compete for a job in camp next year. The GM also suggested he’ll be on the hunt for additional starting pitching: “We’re going to probably be in the market to trade for an arm.”

Again, nothing within Brown’s comments expressly rules out the return of Valdez, but specifically calling out the possibility of addressing the rotation via trade is notable. Houston already has a bit more than $159MM on the 2026 books, per RosterResource, and that’s before accounting for any of the arbitration class. Their 2025 payroll finished at just under $225MM.

In addition to the rotation, catching help will be a priority. Brown noted that the Astros “definitely” have interest in bringing Caratini back after a successful run in Houston. The switch-hitting 32-year-old signed a two-year, $12MM deal prior to the 2024 season and wound up appearing in 201 games over his two seasons, slashing .263/.329/.406 in 660 turns at the plate.

“If you don’t bring him back, you definitely need a backup catcher,” said Brown. ” He’s been one of the best backup catchers in the league. … He’s going to be a free agent, so if he decides to go somewhere else, we have to be in the market for a backup — but we definitely have interest in talking to him.”

It’s a thin class of catchers in free agency this winter, with Caratini, 35-year-old J.T. Realmuto and Danny Jansen standing as the most notable names on the free agent market. The Astros don’t need a starter behind the plate. Yainer Diaz, 27, was terrific in 2023-24, hitting .293/.318/.478 with 39 homers in 996 plate appearances. He slipped in ’25, batting “only” .256/.284/.417 with 20 homers, but that’s plenty productive for a catcher. He figures to see a significant portion of the workload behind the plate again in 2026, regardless of who stands as the other half of the catching tandem.

Given the thin supply of backstops and Caratini’s success with the Astros, it’s possible catching-needy clubs could offer Caratini more playing time than Houston. That’d leave Brown and his staff searching for help behind the plate, as he alluded to; Cesar Salazar, who’ll turn 30 next March, is the only other catcher on Houston’s 40-man roster and turned in a tepid .213/.353/.353 batting line in Triple-A this season.

One other notable storyline for Astros fans to track this winter will be the progress of Hader, whose season ended in mid-August due to a capsule injury in his shoulder. Brown revealed that the team has “consistently” had imaging performed on Hader’s shoulder and that the closer is feeling better and appears to be “moving in the right direction.” Hader, however, has yet to resume throwing, and the Astros won’t have a clear picture on his timetable for a return until he takes that step and they can gauge how his shoulder responds. It’s not yet clear when Hader might pick up a ball.

Astros Place Jake Meyers On Injured List, Designate Nick Hernandez

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The Astros are placing center fielder Jake Meyers on the 10-day injured list, relays Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Rookie infielder Brice Matthews was recalled to take his spot on the active roster. Meyers is dealing with right calf soreness. Houston also reinstated Lance McCullers Jr. from the 15-day IL and designated Nick Hernandez for assignment to open a spot in the bullpen.

Meyers’ injury is the latest hit to a Houston team whose playoff hopes are on life support. The Tigers beat the Red Sox this afternoon to clinch a playoff spot. The Astros are down to one path to October. They need to win their final two games in Anaheim and count on the Rangers to beat the Guardians twice in Cleveland. They may already know their fate by the time tonight’s game opens at 8:38 pm Central. Cleveland’s game is already underway, and they’re tied 2-2 in the bottom of the fifth at the time of this writing.

If the Astros find a way to sneak into the playoffs, they’d need to play at least the first round without their starting center fielder. Meyers wouldn’t be eligible to return until Game 2 of the Division Series. It’s the second calf-related IL stint of the season for the right-handed hitter. Meyers strained the same muscle before the All-Star Break and didn’t return to the big league club until September 6.

Meyers has had arguably the best season of his career when he’s been healthy. He’ll finish the regular season with a .292/.354/.373 batting line with three homers and 16 stolen bases in 104 games. Meyers has been a fantastic defensive outfielder throughout his career. He hadn’t been much of an offensive threat over his first three-plus seasons. This year’s average and on-base percentage are easily personal highs.

Houston has now lost three regulars within the past two weeks. Yordan Alvarez sprained his ankle and won’t be back this weekend. Jeremy Peña hasn’t played in a week due to an oblique strain. He’s out of the lineup again tonight. Zach Cole replaces Meyers in center field, drawing Taylor Trammell into the lineup in left. Mauricio Dubón is in at shortstop for Peña.

McCullers is back from a minimal IL stay related to hand soreness. The former All-Star starter has been relegated to the bullpen and owns a 6.71 ERA over 52 1/3 innings around a trio of injured list stints. His return comes at Hernandez’s expense. Houston did not need to create a 40-man roster spot but had already optioned Hernandez five times over the course of the season. That’s the maximum under the terms of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, so the Astros will need to run him through waivers to send him down again.

Houston acquired Hernandez in a minor league trade with the Padres last June. They called him up a day later and have used him as an up-and-down reliever since then. The 30-year-old righty has pitched 10 times this season. He has allowed six runs in 10 2/3 innings, striking out 11 while issuing eight walks. He pitched well during his various Triple-A stints, turning in a 2.12 earned run average while striking out a third of opponents across 46 2/3 innings.

Hernandez has below-average velocity. His fastball averages around 91 MPH and he leans equally heavily on a low-80s slider. It’s not eye-popping stuff, but he has gotten swinging strikes on more than 13% of his offerings at the big league level. Triple-A hitters whiffed more than 16% of the time. That could be enough for a team to grab him off waivers. While Houston maxed out their five options within a season, Hernandez has one option year remaining after this one. A claiming team could send him back to Triple-A next season if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster all winter.

Astros Place Lance McCullers Jr. On Injured List

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The Astros have placed right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day injured list due to right hand soreness, per Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle. It’s unclear how severe this hand injury is. McCullers is going to Houston for further evaluation. Left-hander Colton Gordon has been recalled in the corresponding active roster move. Chandler Rome of The Athletic first noted that McCullers wasn’t listed on the club’s lineup card but Gordon was.

In the short term, it’s not a massive blow for the Astros, as McCullers hasn’t developed into a key part of their 2025 roster. He returned to the mound this year after missing almost three years due to elbow problems. He only made eight appearances in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 and 2024.

While he and the Astros were surely thrilled to get him back on the mound this year, he hasn’t been able to return to his prior level of performance. He has tossed 52 1/3 innings for the club this season, allowing 6.88 earned runs per nine. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.6% walk rate are both subpar figures. He went back on the IL in June due to a right foot sprain and again in July due to a blister, with both stints being fairly short.

A couple of weeks ago, manager Joe Espada said that McCullers would pitch out of the bullpen but it would be for the “short term” and “just change things up.” He has since logged four innings over three appearances, allowing three earned runs on six hits, four walks and three strikeouts. The Astros are in a tight playoff race and have lost a lot of guys to the IL, but with the way McCullers has pitched, it’s not a huge blow to be without him.

For the long term, however, this will add to the questions about his ability to get back on track in the future. His fastball only averaged 91.8 miles per hour this year, down more than two ticks from his peak. The multiple IL stints perhaps prevented him from ever being fully in a groove but they also add to the worrying sense that he can’t really stay healthy. Even before his recent multi-year stint in the wilderness, he had trouble staying on the field. He has only once thrown at least 130 innings in a major league season and he’s never hit 165.

The rate stats were good enough that the Astros signed him to a five-year, $85MM extension for the 2022-2026 seasons. He’ll make $17MM next year in the final campaign of that pact.

Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images

Latest On Astros’ Rotation

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The Astros are apparently trying to shake things up in their rotation. Manager Joe Espada tells reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Lance McCullers Jr. will be moving to the bullpen. The skipper emphasized that it would be a “short-term” move in order to “just change things up.”

McCullers has returned to the big leagues this year after two completely lost seasons. He didn’t pitch at all in 2023 or 2024 due to issues with his throwing arm. In 2023, he had surgery to repair his flexor tendon and remove bone spurs from his elbow. The recovery period dragged on longer than expected, preventing him from pitching in 2024. Since a forearm injury limited him to just eight starts in 2022, he had thrown very little over the previous three years.

His return in 2025 has not been triumphant. Since being reinstated from the injured list in early May, he has twice gone back on the IL, once due to a right foot sprain and once due to a blister. Around those IL trips, he has a 6.89 ERA over 12 starts. He has walked 14.3% of batters faced this year. He returned from the blister issue last week and made one start, walking five batters in four innings.

Despite the challenges the Astros have faced with their pitching this year, they are atop the American League West. However, their lead over the Mariners is just a game and a half. If the Mariners catch up, the Astros are only 4.5 games ahead of the Royals, the top American League team not in playoff position. Though the Astros are in a decent spot, they still have to win games for another month to crack the postseason.

It seems they have decided that McCullers needs a shift. He has plenty of good numbers on his track record but hasn’t gotten into a good groove this year. He has also thrown 48 1/3 major league innings this year, surpassing his total for the previous three years combined. Getting him a reset in the bullpen will naturally put a check on his workload.

Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown give the Astros a strong one-two in the rotation, though the remaining spots are more in flux. Cristian Javier has a strong track record but also just returned from a lengthy injury layoff. His first three starts since coming back have resulted in a 5.40 ERA and a 13% walk rate. Spencer Arrighetti has also been limited by injury, having made just six starts with a 6.21 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. Jason Alexander has a 2.91 ERA over his past six starts but his larger track record is that of a journeyman depth swingman.

The struggles from the rotation also have domino effects for the relievers. The bullpen has recently lost Josh Hader, Bennett Sousa and John Rooney to the injured list. With the relief corps weakened, it’s obviously not ideal for the rotation to be struggling at the same time.

There could be another X-factor over the horizon. In another piece at The Athletic, Rome notes that Luis Garcia could be reinstated from the injured list soon. Garcia is in a somewhat similar position to McCullers. He had Tommy John surgery back in May of 2023. He was expected to rejoin the club last year but renewed elbow soreness has repeatedly set him back, so that it’s now been well over two years since his last major league game.

Rome provides some details on the setbacks, noting that Garcia shortened his arm slot in an attempt to work around the soreness. However, that new motion prevented from getting back his previous velocity. Eventually, in time, he has been successfully able to return to his previous arm slot as he has become healthier and gotten farther away from his surgery.

He has pitched 30 innings across nine rehab outings in recent weeks. He has a 3.30 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate in those. In his last outing, he tossed six Triple-A innings, allowing one run while striking out five opponents.

He has only averaged 91.4 miles per hour at the Triple-A level this year. In his previous big league work, he was mostly in the 93-94 mph range. That’s a bit concerning but both Garcia and pitching coach Josh Miller expressed confidence that he would continue to push that up over time.

Garcia seems likely to be reinstated soon. His first rehab outing was on July 7th. A rehab assignment for a pitcher normally has a 30-day maximum but exceptions can be made for one coming back from UCL surgery. A ten-day extension can be granted as many as three times, leading to a total rehab span of 60 days.

Even with that wider window, Garcia would need to be reinstated in early September. Rosters expand September 1st and the Astros don’t have a starter listed for that date. Alexander started today with Javier, Arrighetti and Brown scheduled for the next three games. They could have Valdez pitch on the 1st on regular rest, though Rome notes that McCullers and Garcia are both options for that start. McCullers taking the ball that day would naturally depend upon if he is used as a reliever in the prior days.

Prior to his surgery, Garcia tossed 352 big league innings with a 3.61 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Getting that kind of production in the rotation would obviously be great but the struggles of McCullers and Javier show that it’s not always easy to just come back and succeed after a lengthy rehab period.

Further down the line, assuming the Astros make the playoffs, they will have to decide on who makes playoff starts for them. Brown and Valdez are obviously the first two guys but picking a third or a fourth starter out of this group will likely come down to who pitches the best in the next few weeks.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Astros Sign Craig Kimbrel

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August 22: Houston finalized their one-year deal with Kimbrel this afternoon. They also activated Lance McCullers Jr. from the 15-day injured list to start tonight’s game in Baltimore. They cleared active roster space by optioning rookie Logan VanWey to Triple-A and placing southpaw Bennett Sousa on the 15-day injured list. Brandon Walter, who has been out for a month with elbow inflammation, was moved to the 60-day IL in the necessary 40-man move.

Sousa is dealing with elbow inflammation himself. Manager Joe Espada said Sousa reported discomfort after Tuesday’s appearance and has not progressed as hoped. He’s flying back to Houston for further evaluation while the team continues its road trip (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

August 21: The Astros are in agreement with Craig Kimbrel on a major league contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The SportsMeter client was just granted his release from a minor league deal with Texas, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Houston will need to create space on both the active and 40-man rosters.

Kimbrel spent a little more than two months in Triple-A with Texas. He signed in June one day after electing free agency from the Braves. That followed a bizarre sequence in which Kimbrel’s initial team called him up for one day. The nine-time All-Star labored through a scoreless inning in his lone appearance. That remains his only MLB outing this season. Kimbrel has otherwise divided the year between the upper minors affiliates of Atlanta and Texas.

Between the two organizations, Kimbrel carries a flat 3.00 earned run average in 39 minor league innings. He has recorded an excellent 31.5% strikeout percentage but has walked nearly 13% of batters faced. It’s a similar profile as Kimbrel has shown in the big leagues in recent seasons. He had a strikeout rate in the 31-34% range while issuing free passes between 10-13% of the time in both 2023 and ’24. Kimbrel remained effective with the Orioles in the first half of the ’24 season, but he melted down after the All-Star Break (20 earned runs in 17 innings) and has barely gotten an MLB look since then.

While the Triple-A results are solid, Kimbrel’s raw stuff hasn’t been as sharp this year. His fastball has been in the 92-93 MPH range in Triple-A; he averaged less than 92 on the heater in his only big league outing. He’d sat closer to 94 last year and was up to 96 as recently as 2023. He missed enough bats against minor league hitters to intrigue the Astros, whose bullpen has struggled of late.

Only the Rockies, Blue Jays and Nationals have a higher bullpen ERA than Houston does over the past month. The Astros lost Josh Hader for at least the remainder of the regular season to a capsule strain in his shoulder. Bryan Abreu is an elite back-end arm in his own right, and they have a strong left-handed trio of Steven Okert, Bryan King and Bennett Sousa. Abreu is essentially their only reliable righty reliever. Kimbrel’s command makes him a volatile bullpen piece as well, but he has more swing-and-miss upside than Enyel De Los Santos or Shawn Dubin provide in the middle innings.

The signing is expected to become official on Friday. Getting the deal done before September 1 means Kimbrel will be eligible for postseason play if the Astros qualify. He’ll have a little over five weeks of regular season action to convince the front office and coaching staff he’s worth carrying in October. Houston leads the Mariners by 1.5 games in the AL West. They’re 3.5 games clear of the Royals, the top team that is not currently in playoff position.

Image courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images.

Astros Place Lance McCullers Jr. On Injured List

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The Astros placed Lance McCullers Jr. back on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 20. The veteran righty is now dealing with a blister. Reliever Nick Hernandez is up from Triple-A Sugar Land to take the vacated active roster spot.

This is the third IL stint of the season for McCullers. He began the season on the shelf after multiple years of battling elbow and forearm issues. He was knocked back out in June for a couple weeks with a sprained right foot. A blister shouldn’t be a major concern, but it’ll cost him at least another couple weeks.

It’s the latest speed bump in a brutal first season back for McCullers. He has an earned run average approaching 7.00 across 11 starts. He has a league average 23.1% strikeout percentage while walking a career-worst 13% of batters faced. While McCullers had huge ground-ball numbers before the series of injuries, that’s down to a middling 42.3% clip. The 91.5 MPH average velocity on his sinker is well down from the 93-94 MPH range at which he sat in 2022. Each of Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia are on minor league rehab assignments. It’s tough to envision McCullers holding his rotation spot much longer even if he returns from the blister after a minimal stint.

Manager Joe Espada also provided a concerning update on third baseman Isaac Paredes, who went on the 10-day IL over the weekend with a right hamstring strain. Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle) that it’s a “pretty significant” strain that will sideline Paredes for an extended stretch. Mauricio Dubón is getting most of the third base playing time, keeping Brice Matthews, Zack Short and Taylor Trammell in the everyday lineup.

Astros Notes: Melton, Rotation, McCullers

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The Astros placed top prospect and rookie outfielder Jacob Melton on the 10-day injured list due to a right ankle sprain over the weekend, but he’ll apparently be out a fair bit longer than the 10-day minimum. General manager Dana Brown has said since Melton’s IL placement that he expects the 24-year-old to require around four weeks to recover from the sprain (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). That could keep Melton out through the All-Star break.

Houston’s second-round pick in 2022, Melton has appeared in 11 big league games so far and batted .241/.290/.310 with a strikeout rate just under 39%. It’s not a good start to what the Astros hope will be a lengthy big league career, but it’s hardly uncommon to see even well-regarded prospects struggle like this in their first exposure to major league pitching. Melton missed some time with a back injury early in the season but played in 17 Triple-A games prior to his promotion, hitting .254/.371/.508 with a huge 15.5% walk rate against a 21.1% strikeout rate (11 walks, 15 punchouts in 71 plate appearances).

With Melton now joining Zach Dezenzo and Yordan Alvarez on the injured list, Houston’s outfield depth is again being tested. The ’Stros have Jose Altuve in left, Jake Meyers in center and Cam Smith in right. Altuve has hit well but struggled with the defensive transition from second base to left field, logging ugly grades from metrics like Outs Above Average (-3) and Defensive Runs Saved (-8). Smith has held his own, producing league-average offense overall (despite a recent slump) and taking nicely to his own move from the infield to the outfield (4 OAA, 9 DRS). Meyers, always a quality defender, is once again playing well in center field while also enjoying a career year at the plate.

So long as that trio holds up, the Astros should be able to weather the injury storm, but the depth options at this point are thin. Cooper Hummel is back in the big leagues in a reserve capacity. Pedro León, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are all on the injured list at the moment. Trammell is currently on a rehab stint in Triple-A and could soon be an option, but León was pulled from his own rehab stint earlier this month due to a knee issue. McCormick landed on the IL at the end of May due to an oblique strain and has not yet been cleared to play in rehab games.

Shay Whitcomb and Kenedy Corona are the only two position players in the minors who are on Houston’s 40-man roster. Both can play in the outfield, but Whitcomb has spent more time in the infield this season and Corona isn’t hitting well at all in Triple-A.

The outfield isn’t the only area of Houston’s roster being put to the test, of course. The Astros’ rotation still has its two stars atop the staff, Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but the rest of the group isn’t nearly as accomplished. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have already undergone Tommy John surgery. Spencer Arrighetti is working back from a broken thumb on his pitching hand. Cristian Javier (2024 Tommy John surgery), Luis Garcia (2023 Tommy John surgery, plus multiple setbacks) and J.P. France (2024 shoulder surgery) are all still months from being factors.

Lance McCullers Jr.’s return has been a boon. Outside of one awful start, he’s been a steadying presence to held patch things over, but now he’s sidelined by a foot sprain. The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara writes that manager Joe Espada has expressed hope that McCullers can return after the 15-day minimum, but Kawahara characterized that as nothing more than “initial optimism.” The Astros are notoriously opaque when it comes to health updates on their injured players, so it’s hard to get a clear sense for when McCullers might come back.

In the meantime, rookie Ryan Gusto stepped up with a nice effort yesterday, and (per Kawahara) recently recalled righty Jason Alexander will start today’s game. Alexander is a journeyman waiver claim, but he’s pitched well in Triple-A since the Astros claimed him from the Athletics. If he handles himself well against his former A’s teammates, he could stick around a bit longer, particularly given the lack of healthy depth options. Righty AJ Blubaugh is on the 40-man roster but is sitting on a 7.66 ERA in Triple-A. No other starters are on the Astros’ 40-man in the upper minors; they have several relief arms on the 40-man and could add prospect Miguel Ullola, although his sharp 3.33 ERA in Triple-A belies a more problematic 15.2% walk rate.

The Astros, unsurprisingly, plan to target starting pitching ahead of next month’s trade deadline. For now, they’ll proceed with Valdez, Brown, Gusto, Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter. The latter three are all rookies. Neither Gusto nor Gordon had pitched in the majors prior to 2025. Walter, who’ll turn 29 in September, is a former Red Sox prospect who signed a minor league deal this past offseason and has looked excellent through his first three starts.

Astros Place Lance McCullers Jr. On IL With Foot Sprain

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The Astros have placed right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day injured list due to a right foot sprain, retroactive to June 13th. Fellow righty Jason Alexander has been recalled to take his place on the active roster. McCullers was scheduled to start today’s game but Ryan Gusto will get the ball instead. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the info.

To this point, the Astros haven’t provided any information about how the injury occured or how long they expect McCullers to be out of action. In his most recent start, he tossed 96 pitches over five innings. Up until this announcement of his IL placement, he was listed as the starter for tonight’s game in West Sacramento.

More information will presumably be forthcoming but it’s a notable development regardless. For McCullers personally, he’s looking to get back on track after a lengthy absence. He missed all of 2023 and 2024, and most of 2022, due to elbow issues. He was reinstated from the IL about six weeks ago for his first major league action in over two years. He has since made seven starts with a 4.91 earned run average, though most of the damage came in his second start when he allowed seven earned runs to the Reds while only recording one out.

Now he’s set for another injury absence. On the bright side, it has nothing to do with his elbow, though it’s a setback nonetheless. Perhaps it will turn out to be a fine reset. Since he has thrown so little over the past few years, he wasn’t going to suddenly throw 200 innings in 2025. Ideally, this will be just a minor issue that will let him catch his breath before he picks things back up.

But it will be a situation to monitor given his history and the club’s larger pitching situation. McCullers is now the seventh starter on Houston’s injured list, with the others mostly facing lengthy absences. Both Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski required Tommy John surgery in the past month. Luis Garcia has been struggling to get healthy since his own Tommy John surgery in 2023. Cristian Javier had his TJS in June of last year and could perhaps be an option later in the year. J.P. France is recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery with an uncertain timeline. Spencer Arrighetti has a fractured thumb and also has a murky path forward.

Despite all of those injuries, the Astros have been performing well, with a 41-30 record that puts them 4.5 games up in the American League West. Without McCullers, the challenge of keeping the rotation in viable shape will grow.

The Astros have Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown as two strong performers at the front of the rotation, though it now appears that three very inexperienced arms will be backing up that duo. Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter and Gusto have thrown a combined 120 2/3 innings in the majors between the three of them.

Gusto was originally planned to start tomorrow’s game but will now bump up to today. The Astros have TBA listed as tomorrow’s starter, with Valdez still listed for Wednesday. Perhaps that means there will be some kind of bullpen game tomorrow with Alexander factoring in heavily. He has been starting at the Triple-A level and could cover multiple innings.

It’s already been reported that the Astros will be looking for starting pitching help prior to next month’s trade deadline. The McCullers injury, whether it proves to be serious or not, should only add to that desire.

Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images

Astros To Activate Lance McCullers Jr. This Weekend

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The Astros are planning to reinstate right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. from the injured list this weekend, the team announced to reporters Wednesday (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). He’ll take the ball Sunday to start against the White Sox.

Sunday will mark McCullers’ first appearance on a major league mound since the 2022 postseason. Even in 2022, McCullers was limited to 47 2/3 regular-season innings because of a forearm injury. He made his 2022 debut in August, pitched down the stretch and added another 15 postseason innings. His forearm again flared up in spring training 2023, and McCullers eventually underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm and to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

That procedure ended McCullers’ 2023 season before it began, but the general expectation was that he’d return at some point in 2024. That never came to pass. McCullers worked through a throwing program last summer but never made it to the mound for a rehab start. The Astros revealed in August that McCullers was being shut back down due to persisting pain in his surgically repaired right arm. His absence extended into the 2025 season, but after making four rehab starts — including nine straight scoreless Triple-A frames — McCullers is now set to finally return to the majors.

“It’s a day I’ve been waiting for a long time,” McCullers replied when asked what Sunday’s return means to him (video link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “I almost feel like I’m making my debut in some aspects. It’s been a really long road for me. I thank my teammates, the coaching staff, the Astros organization for standing by me and supporting me.”

Injuries have been a persistent theme throughout the now-31-year-old McCullers’ career, but there’s never been any doubt of his abilities when he’s been healthy enough to pitch. The former No. 41 overall draft pick was a top prospect before making his debut in 2015 and has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in six of his seven major league seasons. Overall, McCullers touts a career 3.48 earned run average, 26.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate in 718 2/3 regular season frames. His work in 72 2/3 postseason innings is nearly identical: 3.47 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate.

It’s impossible to know what to expect from McCullers on the heels of such a lengthy absence. If he can recapture even 80% of his prior form, he’d be a boon to an Astros staff that has five other rotation options on the injured list (Luis Garcia, J.P. France, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Shawn Dubin). Hunter Brown has been one of MLB’s best pitchers this year, and fellow starters Framber Valdez and Hayden Wesneski have pitched well. Ryan Gusto has impressed in a small sample of 19 innings since being thrust into the rotation following Arighetti’s injury. Last year’s rotation savior, Ronel Blanco, has stumbled out of the gate with a 5.08 ERA.

On the whole, Astros starters rank seven in the majors with a 3.50 earned run average, but Blanco has struggled and the depth beyond the current quintet is a bit suspect. A healthy McCullers would be a pivotal development.

Houston signed McCullers to a five-year, $85MM extension back in March 2021 — a rare (but hardly unheard of) extension for a Boras Corporation client on the cusp of free agency. He was excellent in ’21, but those previously mentioned 63 innings (regular season and postseason combined) in 2022 are the only innings he’s pitched throughout the duration of that extension. He’s being paid $17MM this year and next in the final two seasons of that contract.

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