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Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

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The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

14 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR, including a list of 29 players last week. The next group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Outfielders

Pitchers

Jim Poole Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Jim Poole passed away yesterday at the age of 57. Poole, a left-handed reliever who pitched in 11 big league seasons from 1990-2000, pitched for eight MLB clubs during his career and was diagnosed with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, back in 2021. Beyond his big league career, Poole worked with the MLB Players’ Association for many years as a member of the union’s pension committee, and more recently served as chairman of the Major League Alumni Marketing board.

“Jim Poole left an indelible mark through the years as a teammate, friend, committed advocate for his fellow players, and, most importantly, a loving and devoted family man,” a statement from the MLBPA reads, “He was an inspiration during his playing career and a shining example of courage and grace in his fight against ALS.”

After being drafted in the ninth-round of the 1988 draft by the Dodgers out of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Poole made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 1990, posting a 4.22 ERA in 10 2/3 innings. In 1991, Poole briefly suited up for the Rangers but made just five appearances before joining the Orioles, with whom he’d stay from 1991-94. During his time in Baltimore, Poole posted a 2.86 ERA that was 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.65.

Poole moved on to Cleveland in 1995 and posted a 3.75 ERA in 50 1/3 innings before going on to pitch for the club in the World Series that year. After starting the 1996 season with the club, he was moved to the Giants midway through the season and stayed there for three seasons before ultimately returning to Cleveland late in the 1998 season. Though 1996 was among the best seasons of Poole’s career, with a 2.86 ERA in 50 1/3 innings of work, he struggled badly during the 1997 and ’98 seasons. He got back on his feet somewhat in 1999, posting a 4.33 ERA in 35 1/3 innings with the Phillies, though he struggled upon returning to Cleveland late in the year. Poole’s MLB career came to a close in 2000 after 10 2/3 innings of work split between the Tigers and Expos.

After his playing days came to an end, Poole remained active in the MLBPA and also worked as an investment manager for big league players. After being diagnosed with ALS in 2021, Poole became active in raising awareness regarding the disease. He was a board member of the nonprofit ALS Cure Project, which was founded in honor of Gretchen Piscotty, the mother of former big league outfielder Stephen Piscotty after she passed away in 2018. More recently, Poole was honored by the Orioles at Camden Yards last year on Lou Gehrig Day. Poole’s accomplishments off the field add to a resume that includes a career 4.31 ERA and 4.51 FIP in 363 big league innings during the regular season, along with a 2.45 career ERA during the postseason.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Poole’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates/colleagues.

Dodgers, Diamondbacks Announce NLDS Rosters

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The Dodgers and Diamondbacks are set to play Game 1 of the NL Division Series this evening at Dodger Stadium. Left-hander Clayton Kershaw (2.46 ERA) is set to take the mound for LA this evening opposite right-hander Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA). The clubs both announced their 26-man rosters for the impending five-game series earlier this afternoon.

Arizona made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, swapping out right-hander Bryce Jarvis for left-hander Kyle Nelson. Jarvis, 25, posted a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season, though the rookie’s peripherals were less impressive. Jarvis struck out just 13% of batters while walking 9.8% and achieved solid results thanks largely to a microscopic .162 BABIP. All that left him with a FIP of 5.03 during the regular season. Jarvis ultimately did not appear during Arizona’s two-game sweep of the Brewers.

His departure from the roster makes room for Nelson, who the Diamondbacks claimed off waivers from Cleveland prior to the 2022 season. The lefty has pitched well in 111 appearances with Arizona, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.96 FIP across 93 innings of work. That said, his work has been a touch less impressive in 2023, with a 4.18 ERA and 4.45 FIP over 56 innings.

Ineligible for the club’s NLDS roster is outfielder Jake McCarthy, who was replaced on the Wild Card Series roster by Jace Peterson before Game 1 began thanks to an oblique injury suffered during batting practice. It’s unclear if McCarthy will be able to return to the roster if Arizona makes it to the NLCS, as manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including those at ESPN) that McCarthy’s injury is a matter of weeks rather than days, putting his postseason availability into doubt even if the Diamondbacks manage a deeper run.

As for the Dodgers, the club secured a bye through the Wild Card Series with a 100-win season, second only to the Braves in the National League and well ahead of the 92-win Brewers, who were knocked out of the postseason by Arizona last round. LA sports just three surefire starting options on the roster in Kershaw, rookie Bobby Miller and veteran Trade Deadline addition Lance Lynn. That being said, righties Shelby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, and Michael Grove are all multi-inning options the team has at their disposal on the roster, though the club opted against rostering left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who posted a 4.89 ERA and 4.52 FIP across 11 appearances for the club after being acquired from the Royals ahead of the deadline back in August.

Looking at the position players on the club’s roster, second baseman Kolten Wong makes an appearance over infielder Amed Rosario. After a brutal first half of the season in Seattle, Wong has hit .300/.353/.500 in limited time (34 plate appearances) with the Dodgers, while Rosario has hit .256/.301/.408 across a much more substantial sample size of 133 trips to the plate with LA. That being said, Wong provides the club with a left-handed bat off the bench to complement fellow righty infielders Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez.

The full rosters…

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

MLBTR Poll: Division Series Winners

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All four Division Series get going tomorrow. The Wild Card series were mostly uncompetitive, with all four ending in a two-game sweep. We’re now on to best-of-five sets that can run through next Friday.

Rangers vs. Orioles

The second round begins in the afternoon when the Rangers head to Baltimore. Texas used Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to dispatch the Rays, so they’ll go with left-hander Andrew Heaney in Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Baltimore’s breakout staff ace, righty Kyle Bradish.

Texas won 90 games behind a star-studded lineup. Anchored by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, the Rangers finished third in the majors in runs. The pitching staff is more questionable, especially with Max Scherzer’s availability for the postseason still uncertain. Montgomery and Eovaldi make for a strong top two, but the bullpen has been a concern all season.

Baltimore lost its elite closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery on the eve of the postseason. All-Star Yennier Cano steps into the ninth inning. The O’s sprinted to 101 wins this year, holding off the Rays to lock down an AL East title and the league’s top seed. Adley Rutschman, Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins headline a lineup that ranked seventh in run scoring. Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez lead the rotation. It’s the first playoff appearance for most of a young but ultra-talented Baltimore group.

(poll link)

 

Twins vs. Astros

The second ALDS sends the AL Central winning Twins to Houston. Minnesota used Pablo López and Sonny Gray in their opening set. They’ll go with Bailey Ober in Game 1 opposite Justin Verlander.

Minnesota held the Blue Jays to one run in their opening series. They’ve had arguably the sport’s best starting rotation, ranking fourth in innings and trailing only the Padres in ERA. Their bullpen isn’t quite as deep, although flamethrowing Jhoan Duran is tough to handle in the ninth inning. While the lineup is built a little more on strong depth than star talent at the top, former first overall pick Royce Lewis raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season games before launching homers in each of his first two career playoff at-bats against Toronto.

The Astros never quite clicked the way they had during their 106-win regular season last year. Yet even without ever fully running on all cylinders, the defending World Series champions won 90 games and swept Arizona in the final weekend to grab another AL West title. They’ll comfortably turn the ball to Verlander and Framber Valdez for the first two games to support a lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve firing on all cylinders and backed by Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman and rookie catcher/DH Yainer Diaz.

(poll link)

 

Phillies vs. Braves

Arguably the most compelling of the Division Series pits the defending NL pennant winners against the best regular season team of 2023. Philadelphia began what they hope to be a second straight run from Wild Card to the Fall Classic by breezing past the Marlins in Round One. They needed Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to do so, so southpaw Ranger Suárez starts tomorrow. Atlanta counters with strikeout king Spencer Strider.

The Phils lean heavily on their excellent top three starters and a star-studded lineup. Bryce Harper has been characteristically stellar, while Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have gotten rolling following slow starts to the season. While the bullpen has been a concern for Philadelphia in prior Octobers, it has held up very well this year. Even though they never threatened Atlanta for a run at the top of the division, the Phils look like one of the most complete teams remaining.

Their pitching staff needs to be up for a challenge. The Braves counter with the best lineup in baseball, a group that runs nine deep and handily outslugged the rest of the league. Atlanta was the only team to reach the 250-homer plateau this year. They hit 307. Matt Olson led the league with 54 longballs and 139 RBI, Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70, and everyone else in the starting lineup hit at least 17 homers. To the extent there’s a concern with this team, it’s the rotation beyond Strider. Max Fried battled a blister at the end of the regular season, leaving a little uncertainty headed into his Game 2 start, while Charlie Morton will miss the series due to finger inflammation.

(poll link)

 

D-Backs vs. Dodgers

The Diamondbacks were the NL’s final playoff qualifier. Arizona knocked off Milwaukee in round one, with the sweep keeping them using #2 starter Merrill Kelly (who’d pitched in the regular season’s final weekend and was lined up for a potential Game 3). Instead, Kelly gets the nod tomorrow against Clayton Kershaw.

With NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll leading off, Arizona has gotten strong work from Ketel Marte and underrated slugger Christian Walker. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a hot streak into the postseason, while young catcher Gabriel Moreno had a great second half. Moreno left Game 2 against Milwaukee after being hit on the head with a backswing, but he’s expected to be full-go for this series (via Alden González of ESPN). The one-two of Kelly and Zac Gallen and a bullpen anchored by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel gives the pitching staff strong talent at the top. The question is the depth — both at the bottom of the lineup and the back half of the starting rotation.

The Dodgers are legitimate World Series contenders yet again. They won 100 games for the fourth consecutive full season. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are going to finish in the top five in MVP balloting. J.D. Martinez is having his best season in a few years, while Max Muncy and rookie James Outman are significant power threats. The Dodgers have an elite collection of late-game arms, leading the majors with a 2.26 relief ERA in the second half behind Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol. It’s a relatively weak rotation for L.A., however. Kershaw’s velocity has been down as he pitches through shoulder discomfort, perhaps leaving rookie Bobby Miller as their most reliable starter. Dave Roberts figures to get to the bullpen early and often.

(poll link)

 

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Postseason Injury Notes: Moreno, Fried, Hudson

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Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno exited following the second inning of Wednesday’s Wild Card round matchup with the Brewers. He was hit in the head by Brice Turang’s backswing after the rookie whiffed on a curveball from Zac Gallen. The 23-year-old initially remained in the game, finishing the inning behind the dish, but he did not come out for the following frame.

Moreno has not yet received a diagnosis, but if he suffered a concussion, he could be out for at least seven days. That would come as a tough loss for the Diamondbacks, who will enter the NLDS against the Dodgers as the unmistakable underdogs. The young catcher was one of their best hitters over the second half of the season, batting .317 with a 144 wRC+ since the start of July. He carried his hot bat into the playoffs, crushing the go-ahead home run in Game 1 off Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

In other postseason injury news…

  • Max Fried threw five innings in a simulated game on Tuesday. The All-Star southpaw hasn’t pitched for the Braves since mid-September as he deals with a blister on his left index finger. Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Mark Bowman of MLB.com) that Freid’s blister had healed “very well,” and although he wore a band-aid on Tuesday, his finger “looks good without anything on it.” Thus, it seems like he’ll be ready to start against the Phillies on Monday in Game 2 of the NLDS. If that goes well, the off days in the schedule could also allow him to pitch Game 5, if necessary.
  • According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Daniel Hudson will pitch during an intrasquad game on Thursday. The Dodgers righty only made three appearances during the regular season and has not played in a big league game since July 5, but he hasn’t ruled out an October return. He won’t be available for the NLDS, but he could pitch later in the postseason should the Dodgers advance. Over the past three years, Hudson has been an excellent reliever when healthy, pitching to a 2.85 ERA and 2.60 SIERA in 79 innings of work. Unfortunately, he has dealt with a litany of injuries since last summer, including a torn ACL, ankle tendinitis, and, most recently, an MCL sprain in his right knee.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Mark Polishuk is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The start of the playoffs, with Mark and Anthony making their World Series predictions (1:20)
  • The Mariners fell just shy of the postseason, so how will the team reload in the winter to address several problem areas on the roster? And, could the M’s splurge on the biggest marquee signing of all in Shohei Ohtani? (3:18)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez’s opt-out clause is the biggest question mark facing the Tigers as their offseason begins, but could Detroit be relatively close to getting back into contention next year? (7:18)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • How will the Dodgers address their pitching needs this offseason, and is J.D. Martinez a candidate to be re-signed after his strong year in Los Angeles? (14:05)
  • How does a manager impact a team’s ability to lure free agents, plus a broader look at the four current managerial vacancies with the Angels, Giants, Guardians, and Mets (22:12)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild — listen here
  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here
  • Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation — listen here

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Miguel Rojas Day-To-Day After HBP On Left Hand

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  • X-rays were negative on Miguel Rojas’ left hand after the Dodgers infielder was hit by a Sean Hjelle pitch on Friday.  Rojas was removed from the game as a precaution, and manager Dave Roberts (speaking with Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters) feels Rojas will be okay, though he’ll undergo more testing today.  The Dodgers’ first-round bye means that they won’t begin their postseason run until October 7, giving Rojas plenty of time to heal up.
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