Cafardo’s Latest: Fernandez, BoSox, Yanks, Jays, Dodgers, Cubs
The Marlins and agent Scott Boras appear unlikely to negotiate an extension for ace Jose Fernandez early in the offseason, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports the team could shop the right-hander as a result. Several of the majors’ high-payroll clubs, including the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs, would have interest in acquiring and extending Fernandez, per Cafardo. The 24-year-old is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 campaign and has thrown a career-high 174 1/3 innings this season. Along the way, Fernandez has posted dazzling numbers – 2.99 ERA, 12.44 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 – which has been the norm since he debuted in 2013.
More from Cafardo:
- Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is likely to remain with the Red Sox in 2017 unless they can get a No. 1-caliber starter for him during the winter, writes Cafardo. The Red Sox and White Sox reportedly discussed Bradley and top starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in advance of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but Boston wasn’t willing to part with Bradley then. Dealing him in the offseason would give the Red Sox more time to find a replacement, though Bradley has been an integral part of the club in 2016 and could continue to serve as a key piece going forward. The 26-year-old has slashed .273/.354/.501 with 25 home runs in 585 plate appearances and graded well both on the base paths and in the field.
- Plenty of teams will look to hire ex-Twins general manager Terry Ryan as a special advisor in the offseason, a major league source told Cafardo. The Twins fired Ryan in July, but the 62-year-old’s overall body of work has earned him respect from his peers.
- In the event the Blue Jays move on from manager John Gibbons after the season, Cafardo lists Torey Lovullo, Eric Wedge and Bud Black as potential successors. Lovullo, Boston’s bench coach, was an assistant in Toronto from 2011-12. Wedge, who previously managed the Indians and Mariners, now works in player development with the Jays. Black managed the Padres from 2007-15 and is currently a special assistant to Angels GM Billy Eppler.
- Teams will have offseason interest in Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, an impending free agent, a major league source informed Cafardo. One of those clubs could be the Red Sox, though Cafardo notes that Uehara would need a strong finish to return to Boston for a fifth season. The soon-to-be 42-year-old should also end up with a salary far below the $9MM he’s making now. At 3.95, Uehara has logged his highest ERA since 2009, but his 6.33 K/BB ratio is seventh among relievers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year. Uehara has amassed 41.
NL West Notes: Jansen, Drury, Rockies
Here’s the latest from around the NL West…
- Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is dealing with some wrist stiffness but he doesn’t intend to miss any time with the minor injury, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. Jansen was wearing a removable brace on his right wrist in the clubhouse after last night’s game, and he said the stiffness fades when he’s warmed up and pitching but is present before and after outings. He dismissed the issue as nothing serious, though any type of arm problem is probably worth noting given Jansen’s importance to the Dodgers’ postseason hopes and his pending free agency this winter.
- Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that “he couldn’t see himself” trading Brandon Drury this offseason, though Piecoro thinks Drury could be a very interesting trade chip for the Snakes. Drury is blocked at third base by Jake Lamb, though the D’Backs could continue to use Drury in a super-utility role all over the diamond, including spelling Lamb against some left-handed pitching. The 24-year-old Drury is hitting an impressive .280/.326/.450 with 14 homers over 438 PA in his rookie season and if Arizona did trade him, it would only be for a high price. For instance, John Harper of the New York Daily News speculated earlier this summer that if the Mets asked about Drury, the D’Backs would want someone like Zack Wheeler back in return. (Harper’s item came prior to the news of Wheeler’s subsequent arm problems.) Piecoro also notes that Drury’s status as a trade candidate could also vary greatly if the Diamondbacks replace Stewart and other members of the front office.
- In the latest edition of the On The Rox podcast, Patrick Saunders and Jeff Bailey of the Denver Post discuss several Rockies-related topics, including what the team should do this offseason to sustain what Saunders feels is a slim window to contend. Other discussion points include the Rockies’ ill-fated bullpen acquisitions last winter, Walt Weiss’ future in Colorado and the possibility of Bud Black as a managerial candidate.
Injury Notes: Hamilton, Reed, De La Rosa, Anderson, Kazmir, Oh, Marte
The Reds announced this morning that outfielder Billy Hamilton and left-hander Cody Reed have been placed on the disabled list due to a left oblique injury and lower back spasm, respectively. The moves are retroactive to Sept. 5, but given the fact that rosters are currently expanded, the DL placements likely end the season for the pair of promising young talents. Hamilton, who turned 26 a week ago, enjoyed what has been his best overall season at the Major League level in 2016, hitting .260/.321/.343 in 460 plate appearances. While those numbers certainly don’t stand out, especially not when considering Hamilton’s home park, the .321 OBP is a career-best and represents a marked step forward for a player that posted just a .285 on-base percentage from 2014-15. Of course, he’s also a top-flight defender (13 runs above average per both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) and the game’s best baserunner (he easily leads the league with 12.9 runs above average on the basepaths, per Fangraphs). Though he’s dealt with some bumps and bruises this year, things are pointing up for Hamilton as he reaches arbitration eligibility this fall. As for the 23-year-old Reed, his debut campaign wasn’t quite what he might’ve hoped. He did manager to strike out 8.1 batters per nine innings, against 3.6 walks, but compiled only a 7.36 ERA over 47 2/3 frames in ten starts. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to earn a rotation spot out of camp for 2017.
Here are some more injury notes from around the game:
- It had seemed that Diamondbacks righty Rubby De La Rosa would be shut down for the year due to ongoing elbow soreness, but that may no longer be the case. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets, manager Chip Hale says there’s still a chance that De La Rosa could return at the tail end of 2016. He’ll throw side sessions and perhaps even sim games while the team assesses both the health of his elbow and his command, per the skipper. “Maybe the last week of the season we get him in a game to see what he looks like,” said Hale.
- The Dodgers put Brett Anderson on the hill tonight in the Triple-A playoffs and he provided five solid frames, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. He is working back from a blister, and showed well with five strikeouts and zero free passes while allowing just one run on three hits. With the victory, Triple-A Oklahoma City stayed alive, meaning that fellow southpaw Scott Kazmir will take his own turn at a rehab outing, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). Kazmir has been battling thoracic spinal inflammation, and his timeline has remained murky. It’ll be interesting to see whether either or both starters play a role down the stretch or in the postseason for the Dodgers. Kazmir is likely not to opt out of his contract regardless, but Anderson will be looking to show that he’s at full health entering another run at free agency. Still just 28 years of age, back issues have limited Anderson to just a pair of major league outings thus far — neither of which went well at all.
- Cardinals closer Seung-hwan Oh is back in action after resting a groin injury, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Oh has been a tremendous find for St. Louis, providing 72 1/3 innings of 1.87 ERA ball on the year, and his return will be critical with just two weeks to go. His 2017 option is already guaranteed — he has accumulated exactly the thirty games finished that he needed — but the team was already surely excited to pick it up at just $2.75MM.
- The Pirates are still awaiting the return of outfielder Starling Marte, who has dealt with back spasms. Skipper Clint Hurdle says that he believes Marte will be ready to go tomorrow, as Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets. Unfortunately, it’s likely too late for the talented outfielder to impact the team’s postseason chances; Pittsburgh sat 5.5 games out of Wild Card position entering play today. The multi-talented 27-year-old has turned in another high-quality campaign, with a .311/.362/.457 batting line, nine home runs, and 47 steals, and his extension continues to look like an outstanding investment.
Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers, Puig-Braun, CarGo, Cespedes, EE, Santana, Red Sox, Mariners
Dodgers righty Kenley Jansen says he is grateful to the team for all it has done for him, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports, but notes that he fully intends to explore the open market this winter. “We’ll have to see what’s good for the family,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough decision. It’s not going to only be me.” Infielder Justin Turner, meanwhile, says he’d “love to stay” in Los Angeles, as Heyman provides in his weekly notes column. Both figure to be targets for the Dodgers in free agency, but also ought to draw wide-ranging interest from other organizations.
Here are some of the other highlights from Heyman’s latest post:
- Heyman pushes back on recent reports suggesting that the Dodgers nearly shipped Yasiel Puig to the Brewers as part of a package to acquire Ryan Braun. A source tells him that “there was a lot of dialogue but [a swap] was never close.” Regardless, it seems that there’s still merit to the idea that the teams could revisit the scenario this winter.
- “No great offers” emerged last winter for Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, according to the report. But Colorado may be wise to shop him again in a few months, Heyman writes, as the team’s glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders could represent an opportunity to improve in other areas. Gonzalez is hitting a productive .300/.350/.523, even if it is aided by playing at Coors Field, and is owed a reasonable $37MM over the next two seasons. It’s worth noting, too, that the club could potentially not only turn that contract into some intriguing, younger assets, but would also free up a good bit of payroll space to deploy on the open market.
- The upcoming market for free agents is obviously short on star power, but Heyman provides some preliminary guesses on the contracts for the top players. He suggests four years and $100MM for Yoenis Cespedes of the Mets as the biggest deal that could be had (assuming, as seems likely, that he’ll opt out of his deal). From my perspective, another star campaign from Cespedes has likely boosted his market beyond that level. The Cuban slugger rates as the top overall free agent on the free agent power ranking of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.
- Edwin Encarnacion of the Blue Jays is fourth on Dierkes’s most recent list — he rates Aroldis Chapman and Jansen higher — while Heyman rates him second to Cespedes. But the veteran slugger is headed for a monster contract regardless, and Heyman notes that the continued belief around the game is that Toronto won’t extend itself to retain him. Instead, the Jays seem to be angling to put together a younger roster.
- Whether Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons is interested in staying on with more change possibly afoot remains to be seen, but Heyman says that the club has been impressed with his work. An internal team source suggests that the team will attempt to retain him — at least as long as a postseason berth is secured — and sources with ties to the skipper say that he likely prefers to stick in the position rather than hunting for another opportunity elsewhere.
- Carlos Santana is highly likely to return to the Indians, per the report. His $12MM club option is a “no-brainer” for the club, a source says. The 30-year-old never seemed very likely to be allowed to test the market: he carries a .243/.353/.471 batting line with 31 long balls and has struck out only one time more than he has walked thus far in 2016.
- The Red Sox are expected to pursue relief help on the upcoming free agent market, Heyman says. That’s not surprising to hear, of course, as depth and quality have both been in question at times and the team is set to watch pitchers such as Brad Ziegler, Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa depart via free agency.
- With a group of talented, high-performing players on hand, the Mariners are “talking behind the scenes” about taking advantage of a window of contention, according to Heyman. That could position the club to strike out on the free agent market in search of a “complementary piece,” he says. There are several areas the team could target, but I wonder whether the time may be right to add a slugging first baseman; there are several available, and the team is set to lose its primary tandem of Adam Lind and Dae-ho Lee to free agency.
Phillies Acquire Joey Curletta To Complete Carlos Ruiz Trade
The Phillies announced today that they’ve acquired outfield prospect Joey Curletta from the Dodgers to complete last month’s Carlos Ruiz trade. The trade, then, will officially go in the books as Ruiz to the Dodgers in exchange for A.J. Ellis, Curletta and right-hander Tommy Bergjans.
Curletta, 22, was a sixth-round pick by the Dodgers out of Mountain Point High School in Phoenix, Ariz. back in 2012. He’s split the season between Class-A Advanced and Double-A for the second straight year, though his numbers in 2016 are superior to the ones he logged as a 21-year-old at those same levels in 2015. Curletta has batted .251/.323/.463 with 17 homers, 17 doubles and five triples in 409 plate appearances this season, though his 30 percent strikeout rate is indicative of the fact that there’s still plenty of room for growth in the right-handed hitter’s approach at the plate.
Curletta didn’t rank among the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects, though Baseball America has previously written that his two best tools are his raw power and his throwing arm. The 6’4″, 245-pounder has been described by BA as a “physical monster” in the past and has been limited to the corner outfield (primarily right field), where his strong arm profiles rather well.
J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group was the first to report that Curletta was headed to the Phils to complete the trade (Twitter link).
5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency
I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter. A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane. Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus. That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November. Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries. The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet. Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.
- His performance has been otherworldly. Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period. Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time. Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement. Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto‘s last 229 2/3 frames. Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
- His age won’t stop him from getting three years. Hill will turn 37 in March. Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline. However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business. If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well. Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
- His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years. Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008. He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand. I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above. It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers). It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy. Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
- Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM. Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown? It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy. Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent. So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him. Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series. It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings. A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time. However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter. $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
- The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible. The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad. Have a look. Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill? I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.
The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference. Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do. Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).
How much money will Rich Hill get in free agency?
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$45 million or more 52% (2,726)
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Less than $45 million 48% (2,547)
Total votes: 5,273
Puig-Braun Blockbuster Nearly Occurred, Likely To Be Revisited
We heard recently that the Dodgers and Brewers had worked on an August trade that would have sent Yasiel Puig to Milwaukee in exchange for fellow outfielder Ryan Braun. New reports provide interesting new details on the swap, which nearly took place and could well be a viable scenario for the coming winter.
One iteration of the talks would have packaged Puig with righty Brandon McCarthy and a pair of prospects, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy recently reported. Indeed, negotiations went right down to the wire before the August 31st deadline, with Braun camping out in the Miller Park clubhouse to await word. The sides “simply ran out of time,” per McCalvy, who adds that both the Giants and Braves have stated interest in the veteran slugger.
Whether or not other trade partners will be reconsidered remains to be seen, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today says that an offseason deal to send Braun to the Dodgers is actually “likely.” According to the report, Braun was advised by the Brewers to stick around and wait until the deadline because a deal seemed so promising at that juncture. Ultimately, the final prospect piece couldn’t be agreed upon.
Braun declined to address the matter, but did note that he grew up a Dodgers fan and spends his winters in the Los Angeles area. “When those conversations started, I think it was an interesting position for me to be in,” he said. Braun’s contract requires him to list up to six teams to which he can freely be traded, and the Dodgers were one club that had a green light this year. If he wanted to gain leverage, he could in theory switch the Dodgers out of that position when his next opportunity to re-name the teams arises, though it seems that Braun has compiled his list based primarily on geographic preference.
The above-noted trade parameters are obviously quite interesting, even before learning what type of prospects would’ve been included. McCarthy’s inclusion would help offset the $76MM in salary obligations owed to Braun after this year, as the veteran hurler will be paid $20MM over the next two seasons and has only just returned from Tommy John surgery. But he also might have filled some innings for Milwaukee while representing an interesting potential bounceback trade piece — especially if his 2019 conditional club option is available. (It has not been reported what type of injury would allow that option to be triggered, but it functions as a variation of the Lackey clause.)
Dodgers Outright Casey Fien
The Dodgers have outrighted reliever Casey Fien to Triple-A Oklahoma City after designating him for assignment over the weekend in order to clear room for the returning Andre Ethier, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (on Twitter).
The Dodgers claimed Fien and the remainder of his $2.275MM salary from the Twins back in early May and ultimately received 25 1/3 innings of 4.21 ERA ball out of the 32-year-old. Fien never established himself with the Tigers, who originally drafted him in 2006, but he broke out as a solid setup piece for the Twins in 2012. Fien went on to post a 3.54 ERA in 223 2/3 innings for the Twins from 2012-15, but his strikeout rate plummeted in 2015 and he struggled greatly this season before Minnesota designated him. While his ERA improved with the Dodgers, Fien allowed a stunning eight homers in his short time with L.A., plus another five in his 13 1/3 innings with the Twins. All told, he’s served up 13 long balls in just 39 1/3 innings of work this season en route to a collective 5.49 ERA, although his 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 are at least somewhat encouraging.
Oklahoma City’s season is still alive in the Pacific Coast League playoffs, so Fien can continue pitching in the Triple-A postseason. However, if he’s not added back to the 40-man roster, he’ll be eligible to elect free agency at season’s end.
Injury Notes: deGrom, Holliday, Benintendi, Wright, Pollock, Kazmir
The Mets are understandably anxious to get righty Jacob deGrom back on the big league hill, and with minor league seasons wrapping up, they may allow him to ramp up fully while pitching from the bullpen, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets. DeGrom threw 35 pitches at full tilt today as he recovers from a recent bout of forearm tightness, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports on Twitter, and it seems he could be back in uniform in a few days. It’ll be interesting to see how deGrom is deployed, but regardless, it’s obviously good news for the Mets as they battle for a Wild Card berth.
- One of New York’s primary competitors, the Cardinals, appear set to welcome back an important piece of their own in outfielder Matt Holliday, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports on Twitter. The veteran reported that his injured thumb felt good after an on-field BP session today. It still seems unlikely that St. Louis will pick up its $17MM club option on Holliday for 2017, though team and player could always work out an alternative arrangement.
- Likewise, the Red Sox will get back an outfielder for the stretch run. Rookie Andrew Benintendi may be ready to go by the middle of the week after making good progress following a knee injury, manager John Farrell told reporters including Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. The left-handed hitter is likely to return in a time share, despite his immense early production, as the righty-swinging Chris Young is hitting well since he was activated from a DL stint.
- The news wasn’t as good for Red Sox righty Steven Wright, who is dealing with shoulder issues, ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber reports. The knuckler may be able to begin throwing soon, but Farrell suggested that it will be a “challenge” for him to return to full duty in time to play a role late in the regular season or even the playoffs. Wright, 32, hasn’t maintained his breakout first-half production, managing only a 5.06 ERA in 42 2/3 innings over his most recent seven outings.
- Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock is expected to return at some point over the next few weeks, Jack Magruder of Fan Rag tweets. After working back from a broken bone in his elbow that took most of his season, Pollock went down recently with a groin strain. But it seems he’ll be able to log a few more plate appearances late in the year, with the training staff saying that he is ahead of schedule in recovering.
- It’s still unclear what, if anything, the Dodgers can expect from southpaw Scott Kazmir, who has been diagnosed with thoracic spinal inflammation. Manager Dave Roberts says that he hasn’t been updated as to Kazmir’s status, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The entire campaign has been a struggle for the veteran lefty, but he has been hit harder (.277/.333/.493) in seven starts over the second half and it’s not at all apparent whether he’ll be a factor in the postseason. With two years and $32MM left on his contract, Kazmir seems unlikely to trigger his opt-out clause after the season.
Dodgers Release Randy Choate, Matt West
The Dodgers released left-hander Randy Choate and right-hander Matt West at the start of the month, Eric Stephen of the True Blue LA blog reports. Neither pitcher appeared in the big leagues in 2016, with Choate tossing 17 2/3 innings at three levels of the Dodgers’ farm system while West threw 46 relief innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Choate posted a 7.13 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB rate this season, though that inflated ERA is somewhat misleading. Choate has been strictly a lefty specialist for years in the bigs, yet in the minors, he actually faced more right-handed batters (who had a whopping 1.143 OPS against him in 43 PA) than he did left-handed batters (who managed just a .578 OPS in 41 PA).
It’s probably unlikely, though not totally out of the question, that a team looking for southpaw bullpen depth down the stretch could sign Choate with an eye towards using him in his old LOOGY role. Choate signed his minor league deal with the Dodgers in June after he was released by the Blue Jays in Spring Training, and (this is purely speculation on my part) Toronto stands out as one contender who has struggled to find effective left-handed relief pitching this season. If Choate does manage to catch on somewhere and appear in a big league game, the 41-year-old will have officially played in parts of 16 Major League seasons.
West, 27, had a strong year at Triple-A, posting a 2.33 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 4.75 K/BB over his 46 frames. A second-round pick for Texas in the 2007 draft, West converted from infielder to pitcher in 2011 and has a 3.54 ERA over 203 2/3 career innings in the minors. He had cups of coffee with the Rangers (three games) in 2014 and the Dodgers (two games) in 2015.