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Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler

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In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
  • Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
  • As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
  • One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist’s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
  • The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
  • Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.

Quick Hits: GMs, Johnson, Honeycutt

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GM Alex Anthopoulos’ departure from the Blue Jays’ GM job is connected to the phenomenon of “title inflation” thoughout the industry, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. Previously, the GM was typically the top executive in charge of baseball personnel decisions, but increasingly, teams are hiring former GMs to be presidents of baseball operations, to whom GMs report. For example, Theo Epstein is the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, while Jed Hoyer is their GM. The Red Sox, Dodgers and several other teams have similar arrangements. In Anthopoulous’ case, the Blue Jays are replacing former president Paul Beeston with Mark Shapiro, who was formerly the Indians’ GM. Under Beeston, who did not have a baseball operations background, Anthopoulos had a great deal of authority to make player personnel moves. The Blue Jays have denied that the nature of Anthopoulos’ job would have changed under Shapiro, and there appear to have been personality differences between Anthopoulos and Shapiro that contributed to Anthopoulos’ decision to leave. One potential portion of the problem, though, likely was the perception (or reality) that the Blue Jays installed a baseball operations employee above Anthopoulos. As Cameron notes, it’s becoming increasingly common for teams to do just that, reducing the power of GMs for a dozen organizations around the game. Perhaps, Cameron suggests, Anthopoulos’ position with his next club could be president of baseball operations. Here’s more from around the game.

  • Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson was unharmed in a carjacking yesterday in Florida, Florida Today reports (hat tip: CBS Sports’ David Brown). Johnson was with a group of people at a convenience store when the accused assailant allegedly approached a member of Johnson’s party, demanded the keys to the vehicle in which Johnson was riding, and shot a bullet into the ground, a fragment of which hit one of Johnson’s companions in the leg. Gould was then arrested after a high-speed chase. Johnson, who MLB.com currently ranks the Sox’ fourth-best prospect, is coming off a successful season at Triple-A Pawtucket and made his big-league debut in July.
  • Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt is about to sign an extension with to stay with the Dodgers, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi reports (Twitter links). The plan is for Honeycutt to remain as a pitching coach for two more seasons, then transition into a special assistant role. The Dodgers and manager Don Mattingly recently parted ways, of course, but the Dodgers hope that retaining Honeycutt will help the team ease the transition to a new manager.

NL Notes: Young, Honeycutt, Green, Phillies

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The Dodgers nearly signed pitcher Chris Young to a minor league deal last offseason, but he signed a $675K big-league deal with the Royals instead and is now set to start Game 4 of the World Series, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports notes. Young had an effective regular season and has been even better thus far in the playoffs. The extremely cheap signing has been a boon for the Royals and might have been one for the Dodgers as well, Morosi says, arguing that it’s strange the Royals were able to get him so cheaply after he pitched 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA in 2014. As Morosi notes, Young’s 86-MPH fastball likely had something to do with that. I’d add that Young’s unimpressive 2014 peripherals (5.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 22.3% ground ball rate) were also likely a factor. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers are negotiating with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt on a multi-year contract to keep him with the team, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. There’s a possibility Honeycutt could join departing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly with the Marlins, but Honeycutt has been with the Dodgers through several managerial changes, and keeping him would help the organization maintain “continuity” for the team as it chooses Mattingly’s successor.
  • The process of interviewing for a big-league managerial position is a grueling one, new Padres manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “The first interview, I spent about 2 1/2 hours with one group, then about 2 1/2 hours with another group. They flew me back in, and I spent 14 hours, from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m. It was a relentless barrage of people,” says Green. “Then they flew in a couple days ago, A.J. [Preller] and Josh Stein, met my family. After my wife and kids went to bed, they fired off three more hours of questions. So they did their due diligence.” Green also shares his thoughts regarding dealing with expectations as a big-league manager, noting that building a winning team requires putting a process in place, and that having expectations in and of itself does little to help a team reach its goals.
  • The Mets’ rise is bad news for the Phillies, in that the Mets’ strong core of starting pitching is set to be around for awhile, Mike Sielski of the Inquirer writes. But the Phillies won’t have the same payroll restrictions the Mets have had, Sielski notes, so it shouldn’t take the Phillies as long as it took the Mets to turn what’s already a good Phillies collection of young talent into a winning team.

Latest On Dodgers’ Managerial Search

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The Dodgers have parted ways with manager Don Mattingly in what appears to be a mutually agreeable divorce. That leaves the organization searching for a new skipper, marking an important hire for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. We’ll keep tabs on the hiring process right here:

  • The Dodgers will interview Darin Erstad for the position, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Erstad currently serves as the head coach at the University of Nebraska. While it would be unusual for a big league club to hire a skipper directly out of the college ranks, Erstad was a long-time major leaguer.
  • Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, who was a finalist in the Mariners’ managerial search, will interview for the Dodgers, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Roberts, of course, had a 10-year playing career as an outfielder and stole one of the most famous bases in recent history in the 2004 ALCS. He’s been coaching for the Padres since 2011, beginning as a first-base coach.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that he’s spoken to a number of people in the past day who said they’d be stunned if anyone other than Kapler is named manager in Los Angeles.

Earlier Updates

  • Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles tweets that he’s hearing Mets bench coach Bob Geren will be in the mix for the Dodgers’ opening. Geren, 54, managed the Athletics from 2007-11, so Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi is plenty familiar with him.
  • Dodgers director of player development Gabe Kapler is a “serious frontrunner” for the job, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com, who acknowledges that the process is only just beginning. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier this morning (via Twitter) that Kapler was considered a candidate. While he only has minimal managerial experience in the low minors, Kapler is a highly respected former player who has long been viewed as a budding managerial prospect.
  • Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times lists some names to keep an eye on, with Kapler among them. Other strong possibilities to come under consideration by the Dodgers, per Shaikin, include former Rays and current Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez, former Padres skipper Bud Black, current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach, and recently-hired Dodgers third base coach Ron Roenicke.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

Chase Utley Intends To Play In 2016

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Though some have wondered whether or not Chase Utley will return for a 14th Major League season, Utley’s agent, Joel Wolfe of the Wasserman Media Group, tells the New York Post’s Joel Sherman that Utley is “one hundred percent” returning for the 2016 season.

The Dodgers hold a $15MM club option on Utley that is, as Sherman points out, an easy option to decline. The 37-year-old Utley batted just .212/.286/.343 between the Phillies and Dodgers this season — Philadelphia traded him to L.A. in exchange for Darnell Sweeney and John Richy in August — and an ankle injury kept him from reaching the 500 plate appearances necessary for that $15MM option to automatically vest.

Utley’s season could begin with a two-game suspension, though, after a controversial slide in the NLDS took out Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada and fractured his right fibula. MLB ruled that Utley would be suspended for the next two games of the Division Series, but his camp appealed the suspension. Players are typically allotted up to two weeks to assemble their case when appealing a suspension, Sherman notes, and as such the hearing was delayed until next season so as not to overshadow the remainder of the playoffs or the offseason.

Utley’s disappointing 2015 campaign marked the first full season of his career in which he failed to reach double-digit home runs (he hit eight) and also represented the first time since 2004 that his adjusted OPS fell shy of the league average. He’ll face a limited market as he looks for a new team in free agency, though his track record should earn him an incentive-based big league deal for a team with needs at second base. The Yankees, Royals, White Sox, Angels (who had interest in him this summer) and Padres all make some degree of sense as highly speculative fits for the Phillies icon.

Marlins’ Managerial Search Focused On Mattingly

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The Marlins’ managerial search is in full effect after the team formally announced that Dan Jennings would not return to the dugout and has been asked to rejoin the front office. To this point, it’s known that Larry Bowa, Manny Acta and Bo Porter are candidates for the Marlins, who are said to prefer someone with previous managerial experience.

Here’s the latest on their search…

  • Mattingly’s interview went well, tweets Frisaro, who says it may simply be time for the sides to talk numbers and work out the terms of employment. Bowa, meanwhile, appears to be out of the running after agreeing to return as the Phillies’ bench coach.
  • Jackson reports that the Dodgers wouldn’t be responsible for the $1.6MM that Mattingly would’ve earned in 2016 if he receives a new managerial job that pays him more than that figure. Mattingly wants assurances that he can hire his own coaches, which the Marlins are willing to grant, and he also wants financial security with a new deal. As Jackson notes, Loria has shown a willingness to spend generously on managers that appeal heavily to him.
  • Mattingly is interviewing with the Marlins today, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). FOX’s Jon Morosi notes (also on Twitter) that if Mattingly is hired by Miami, his 2016 salary would be subject to being offset due to the fact that Mattingly is still under contract with the Dodgers.

Earlier Updates

  • Mattingly has interest in the Marlins’ job, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Miami will likely reach out to him to open discussions within “the next few days,” per the report. Because the sides have yet even to meet, Jackson says it would be premature to call the match-up a done deal. But he echoes the other reports suggesting that Mattingly is the front-runner to become the next Miami skipper.
  • Don Mattingly will hit the open market after parting ways with the Dodgers, and the Marlins have often been said (see here and here) to have keen interest in him. That is indeed still the case, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says (on Twitter) that the Fish have “serious” interest, explaining that their managerial search has been on “semi-hold” while waiting to see what would happen in Los Angeles.
  • Nevin has also received two interviews, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who calls Mattingly a “favorite” for the position now that he’s free to join any club.
  • Bowa is taking his second interview with the Fish on Oct. 24, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports on Twitter. Currently the Phillies bench coach, Bowa has previously skippered the Padres (1987-1988) and Phillies (2001-2004).
  • Among the candidates in Miami is Alex Cora, who’ll receive an interview. But reports indicate that the organization may prefer to wait until the Dodgers decide on Don Mattingly to make their own hire. Mattingly would make for an appealing candidate to the Fish.
  • The Marlins have received permission from the Diamondbacks to interview Triple-A manager Phil Nevin, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. His interview will come tomorrow and be backed by a “strong endorsement” from D-Backs GM Dave Stewart, Nightengale adds. While Nevin lacks Major League managing experience, he’s been a very successful minor league manager and has been oft-regarded as a future big league skipper over the past couple of seasons.
  • The current coaching staff will have the opportunity to get some face time with whichever candidate the team elects to hire, president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer (Twitter link). Spencer adds in a followup tweet, however, that everyone on the coaching staff has also been granted the permission to seek opportunities in other organizations, should they wish to do so.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Klentak, Vlad Jr., D’Backs

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More and more teams are adopting the formula of hiring an Ivy League-educated, analytics-based GM and/or a veteran player as manager despite little or no coaching experience, a trend FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal finds a bit troubling.  A specific hiring model may make it harder for minorities to make inroads into front office or managerial positions.  Teams that rely too much on analytics could run into as many problems as front offices that are too “old-school,” while Rosenthal notes that several long-time coaches or managers may now find themselves frozen out of the job market simply because they’re not fresh faces.

Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into World Series week…

  • While the Dodgers have some weak spots on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider link) argues that there is no need for the club to step back for a mini-rebuilding year in 2016.  Los Angeles has won three straight NL West titles despite those flaws and has an ownership willing to spend record amounts, so Olney feels there’s no reason to waste a year of Clayton Kershaw’s prime to retool.
  • New Phillies GM Matt Klentak is profiled by Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, who speaks to Klentak’s old Dartmouth coach (Bob Whalen) and his old Angels colleague, director of baseball operations Justin Hollander.
  • The Blue Jays expended quite a bit of their prospect capital in making the trades that helped them win the AL East, though GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Baseball America’s Alexis Brudnicki that he feels the farm system has already been replenished by new talent that has emerged.  International signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the most-touted new prospects in the system, and Anthopoulos notes that Guerrero has been working out at third base, a bit of a surprise since most pundits felt Guerrero’s body type would eventually see him in a corner outfield/first base/DH role down the road.
  • The Diamondbacks have interviewed at least eight candidates in their search for a new pitching coach, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  The list includes each of the pitching coaches from their full-season minor league affiliates, Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Gil Patterson and Athletics minor league pitching coordinator Garvin Alston.  Piecoro isn’t sure if the D’Backs will look at any of the available veteran pitching coaches on the market, such as Mike Maddux or Rick Honeycutt.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Dodgers Notes: Friedman, Urias, De Leon, Holmes

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Dodgers president Andrew Friedman has made sweeping changes throughout the organization, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Now that former manager Don Mattingly has stepped down, Friedman will have the opportunity to remake the major league coaching staff too. Today’s managers must serve as a conduit between analytical front offices and the players. Friedman plans to make a hire by the Winter Meetings in two months. Presently, the top rumored candidates are Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez (a former Friedman employee), former Padres manager Bud Black, and Dodgers personnel Gabe Kapler, Tim Wallach, and Ron Roenicke. Of course, other candidates could enter the fray too.

Here’s more from the Dodgers:

  • Los Angeles has not developed a meaningful starting pitcher since Clayton Kershaw, writes Shaikin in a separate column. GM Farhan Zaidi claims the club will get younger, but the drafts since Kershaw have not been kind. They’ve made 12 first round picks since Kershaw was selected, and 10 of them have been pitchers. It’s telling that Corey Seager has produced more WAR than all of them in just one month of play. As the Mets demonstrate, a deep, young rotation can bring you a long way. With the Dodgers massive resources, the next step is to develop better pitching.
  • Pitching reinforcements won’t arrive by the start of 2016, per Shaikin. That will force the club to spend big to re-sign Zack Greinke or acquire another top arm. However, prospects Julio Urias, 19, Jose De Leon, 23, and Grant Holmes, 19, all show promise and could move quickly. Urias is the most recognizable of the trio. He has appeared numerous times here on MLBTR. De Leon also came up in deadline rumors, particularly for Cole Hamels. Holmes, the club’s first round pick in 2014, may be slightly less visible than the other two. However, prior to the season, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel rated him as the fourth best prospect in the system – ahead of De Leon (seventh ranked).
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