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Dodgers Met With Yoshinobu Yamamoto On Tuesday

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Dec. 13: Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman were all present at Dodger Stadium yesterday for the team’s recruitment pitch to Yamamoto, per Fabian Ardaya and Ken  Rosenthal of The Athletic. Dorsey tweets that Will Smith, Yamamoto’s potential batterymate if he signs in Los Angeles, was also present.

Dec. 12: The Dodgers met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto today as the star right-hander continues his North American tour, reports Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (on X). They’re the sixth team known to chat with the 25-year-old free agent.

Mets officials flew to Japan to speak with Yamamoto last week. The pitcher and his camp are now traveling around the U.S. and Canada as they interview with other teams in the mix. Yamamoto met with the Giants two days ago and the Yankees yesterday. He’ll chat with the Red Sox and Blue Jays later in the week.

After signing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are on the hunt for rotation help. L.A. has been linked to virtually every starting pitcher of note in free agency or trade. The Dodgers have Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller locked into two rotation spots. They figure to at least two starters to a middle to back end that includes Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Yarbrough while Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May work back from surgery.

Yamamoto is widely viewed as the best remaining free agent. He is increasingly expected to command a contract approaching or exceeding $300MM, to say nothing of the posting fee an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes.

While Yamamoto is easily the top pitcher coming over from Japan this offseason, he’s not the only one. Left-hander Shota Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, was posted by the Yokohama BayStars. He’s coming off a 2.80 ERA with an excellent 29.2% strikeout rate over 148 innings. In an appearance on MLB Network this afternoon, Jon Morosi indicated the Dodgers had some level of interest in Imanaga. Teams like the Cubs, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers have also been tied to the southpaw at points this offseason.

Roster Resource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number for 2024 just south of $220MM. That leaves them $17MM below the base threshold and well shy of their estimated $267MM CBT number from last season.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

Julio Urias Case Being Reviewed By Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office

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Law enforcement officials have completed their investigation into the domestic violence allegations against former Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias and turned their findings over to the L.A. County District Attorney’s office to determine whether charges will be filed, per a report from Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. There’s no timeline for when a decision will be reached at this time.

The 27-year-old Urias, who became a free agent at season’s end, was suspended under MLB’s domestic violence policy back in 2019, although he was never criminally charged in that instance; his suspension came after a league investigation into his case. The report from Harris indicates that law enforcement has obtained cell phone footage of the current alleged incident involving Urias and a woman, which reportedly took place near L.A.’s BMO Stadium after an LAFC Major League Soccer match.

Urias was arrested on the night in question and released the following day on $50,000 bail. Major League Baseball placed him on paid administrative leave two days after the alleged incident, and he did not return prior to the end of the season. If Urias is ultimately suspended, any money paid out during his time on administrative leave would be rescinded.

MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy grants the commissioner’s office the power to levy discipline even in the absence of criminal charges, so it’s possible that Urias could face a suspension even if the DA’s office does not bring forth charges. He would be the first player to be suspended twice under that policy since its implementation.

Why Shohei Ohtani’s Contract Structure Is Not A Luxury Tax Dodge

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Earlier today, we learned that Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM contract with the Dodgers has a stunning deferral structure: he’ll earn a mere $2MM in each of the ten seasons he’s agreed to play baseball for the club, and then $68MM per year from 2034-43.

Based on what I’ve seen on social media tonight, a lot of baseball fans think the purpose of these deferrals is for the Dodgers to “dodge” the competitive balance tax (yes, t-shirts are already being drawn up).  Here’s why that’s wrong.

The collective bargaining agreement has a section for calculating the CBT hit for a contract that includes deferred money.  According to reports, that calculation works out to a $46MM average annual value and accompanying CBT hit for the Dodgers and Ohtani.  As you can see here, $46MM tops Max Scherzer’s previous AAV record of $43,333,333.33.  It’s $6MM beyond Aaron Judge’s $40MM AAV, which was the highest for a player on a deal of more than three years.

Not only is $46MM a record AAV, but it’s entirely in line with expectations.  MLBTR predicted a $44MM AAV for Ohtani.  Most other prognosticators were in that range.  In fact, the median Ohtani AAV prediction of the other six outlets we’re tracking was $45,984,849.  It would be almost impossible for Ohtani’s luxury tax AAV to have met expectations any harder.

The problem is the initially reported $70MM AAV.  That was the first number people saw, and it gets ingrained for fans after being seen in thousands of headlines.  The agent certainly didn’t mind.  Though news of significant deferred money quickly followed and ESPN’s Jeff Passan narrowed it down to $40-50MM yesterday, more precise numbers weren’t known until today.

There was enough time for the shocking $700MM and $70MM figures to take hold.  So it’s logical for some fans to say the Dodgers are paying Ohtani $70MM a year but “getting away with” just a $46MM CBT hit.  However, I’d argue that the $70MM figure was never “real,” in that it dwarfs expectations and there’s no current indication that any team offered anything close to that AAV without huge deferrals.  The $46MM AAV is what matters.  Ohtani moved the AAV record forward as expected, but only by about six percent rather than an insane 62%.

MLB does have the power to stop teams from circumventing the CBT, but this doesn’t qualify.  In fact, it is explicitly allowed.  As Passan explained tonight, the CBA specifically says, “There shall be no limitations on either the amount of deferred compensation or the percentage of total compensation attributable to deferred compensation for which a Uniform Player’s Contract may provide.”  This is just my opinion, but perhaps if the deferrals led to a luxury tax AAV below $35MM or so on Ohtani, MLB might have considered it a tax dodge, but not for a record $46MM.

Ah, but what about Jon Heyman’s report a year ago about how the Padres “were contemplating” a 14-year offer for Aaron Judge that would’ve taken him through age 44?  About that, Heyman noted, “sources say they would not have been allowed, as MLB would have seen the additional years as only an attempt to lower their official payroll to lessen the tax.”

MLB would’ve been right – there would be no other reason to pay Judge through age 44.  Teams are loathe to pay players that far into their careers, and of course the vast majority of players do not have MLB careers at age 44.  Our MLB contract tracker goes back to 10-1-10, and the only contracts of three or move years that even went through age 41 were for Albert Pujols and Yu Darvish.  So there’s simply no precedent for paying Judge three years longer than that.  Furthermore, even based on Heyman’s reporting, none of this actually happened: Heyman did not report that the Padres made a 14-year offer or that MLB actually tried to stop something.  Just that they would (I’d say “might”) have stopped it.  As I was contemplating how long Ohtani’s contract might go, I think you could at least make a case to go through age 42.

All that said, Ohtani’s contract structure does present a big advantage to the Dodgers.  I mean, they’re actually paying him $2MM a year.  Many arbitration eligible utility players or relievers make more.  Paying Ohtani so little seems ludicrous in that sense, even if it is within the rules.  A team’s CBT payroll uses the average annual value of each contract, and that determines their luxury taxes.  But teams also operate off real payrolls, where a player on a two-year, $20MM deal might actually be paid $5MM in the first year and $15MM in the second despite his $10MM CBT hit.

The Dodgers have a certain budget or target with that real payroll, and instead of paying Ohtani $46MM on that payroll, they’re actually paying him less than Austin Barnes.  That means, in theory, the Dodgers can more easily afford to add more quality players, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

So, is this a problem?  Does deferring 97.1% of a huge contract mean baseball is broken, and does it represent a major point of contention when the CBA expires after the 2026 season?  Lindsey Adler of the Wall Street Journal wrote tonight, “According to league and union sources, MLB has proposed limiting deferrals in prior CBA negotiations, but the MLBPA has declined those limits because deferrals allow a player flexibility that allows a contract to be worth, let’s say, $700 million instead of $460 million.”

When this came up previously in CBA talks, it was probably more of a “nice to have” for MLB, but not something for which they’d actually make a concession to the MLBPA.  The MLBPA won’t want to give this up, for the handful of players who actually want their payment deferred 20 years into the future.  As you know, money is worth more now than it is in the future, so players have not exactly been clamoring to wait until retirement age to receive 97.1% of their contract.  I’m sure deferred money will come up in the next CBA talks, and may even be eliminated, but one player doing it does not translate to a hot button issue or something where billions of dollars hang in the balance.  They’ll find more consequential things to fight about.

Ohtani can do this because he is not a normal MLB player, and he rakes in significant endorsement money every year.  And as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Evan Drellich explain, Ohtani’s choice on deferrals gives the Dodgers payroll flexibility to add other players and may give him a tax benefit if he isn’t living in California when the $68MM salaries start rolling in.

As Jack Harris of the L.A. Times notes, Ohtani “took this approach…with all the teams he negotiated with.”  Given that Ohtani’s contract roughly equates to a 10-year, $460MM deal, I’d argue that he’s chasing rings a lot more than he’s chasing every last dollar.  Any team could have done this deal, but Ohtani wanted to play for the Dodgers.

The combination of Friday’s shaky reporting suggesting Ohtani was heading to the Blue Jays, plus an unprecedented contract structure, seems to be leading some fans to villainize him.  I think that’s a shame, because he has been squeaky-clean off the field and remains a generational and thrilling player.

Shohei Ohtani’s Contract Will Defer $68MM Per Year

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The Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani agreed to massive a ten-year, $700MM deal over the weekend, but it was reported that there were significant deferrals. The deal still isn’t official but Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays some of the particulars today, most notably that $68MM of Ohtani’s $70MM annual salary will be deferred, leaving him making just $2MM per year in the short term. The deferred money is to be paid out without interest from 2034 to 2043. This will reportedly reduce the CBT hit of the contract to around $46MM per year.

When reporting on Ohtani’s deal was initially coming out over the weekend, Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed “most of” the salary would be deferred. It now appears that wording was putting it mildly, with this framing coming as quite a shock. Deferring money is not new but this scale is clearly unprecedented. Most baseball fans are familiar with Bobby Bonilla’s unusual contract structure, with many of them celebrating “Bobby Bonilla Day” every July 1. In late 1999, the Mets released Bonilla but still owed him $5.9MM. In order to save money in the short term, the club kicked the payments down the road, agreeing to pay him $1.19MM on July 1 every year from 2011 to 2035.

But deferring $68MM annually is clearly uncharted waters, since no MLB player has ever even had a salary of $45MM or higher. Ohtani is set to almost double that, in a sense, but he will only be banking $2MM per year during his time playing for the Dodgers.

From Ohtani’s point of view, the gambit makes a lot of sense and Passan reported over the weekend it was Ohtani’s idea. By taking less money now, he will leave the club with more money to build a competitive team around him. For competitive balance tax purposes, a contract is measured in net present value as opposed to pure guarantee, so this works for luxury tax purposes also. As mentioned up top, this will lead to a CBT hit of about $46MM, instead of the $70MM that would apply if going just by average annual value. As Ardaya mentions in today’s report, Ohtani makes about $50MM per year in terms of endorsements and off-the-field revenue streams, meaning he won’t be hurting for cash by taking this path. He’ll then be able to collect $68MM per year after he has played out the 10-year term of the agreement.

For the Dodgers, this will obviously be great for their competitive chances in the short term. They get an elite player the likes of which the world has never seen for a mere $2MM per year. That’s obviously still a huge amount of money for the average person but chump change in the baseball world, with the MLB minimum is set to be $740K next year. They also cut their CBT hit way down, significantly limiting the taxes they eventually have to pay at any point over the next decade. The long-term downside is that, from 2034 to 2043, they will be spending $68MM on a player that is no longer on the club. As pointed out by Brandon Wile of The Score, there are also heavy deferrals in the Mookie Betts deal, meaning the Dodgers will be paying a combined $79MM to Ohtani and Betts in 2043 when Betts will be 50 years old and Ohtani 48.

That could come back to bite them down the road, but they clearly see the present as a unique opportunity to strike while having a unique combination of talents with players like Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Betts  all on the roster. Due to inflation, by the time those payments roll around, the value of $68MM will be less than it is today.

Some fans of other clubs may not like the way this is playing out but it doesn’t seem like there’s any hope of the league stepping in to put a stop to it. As relayed by Passan, the collective bargaining agreement clearly states that there is no limit to the amount of money than can be deferred in a contract.

Both Ohtani and the club had to agree to this deal, so it’s obviously fine with the parties involved. But it’s not great for any rival clubs or their fans. The Dodgers have already been one of the most successful clubs in recent history, running up big payrolls and having currently made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons. Now they are adding an unprecedented talent with unprecedented financial machinations that will appear to many as unfair, regardless of whether or not they are actually against the rules.

The Dodgers still have a lot of work to do this offseason, particularly in the rotation. They are currently slated to rely upon Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and then a batch of fairly unproven youngsters such as Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Michael Grove. With the huge amount of money they committed to Ohtani, it was fair to wonder how much powder they would have dry for bolstering that staff. With Ohtani agreeing to this deal, it makes it far more likely that they throw some money around at free agents like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery or others.

Both Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register report that Ohtani explored these kinds of contract structures with every team he negotiated with, so this wasn’t just a Dodgers-exclusive thing. It seems that Ohtani wants to win and has agreed to structure his deal so that his chances of doing so are as high as possible. He’ll take home far less money now in order to make the team stronger during the course of his playing career.

Dodgers Sign Shohei Ohtani

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The Dodgers officially announced the signing of two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year contract.  The two-way superstar had announced his intention to sign with the club via his Instagram page on Saturday.

“Dodger fans, thank you for welcoming me to your team,” Ohtani said in a statement released by the team.  “I can say 100 percent that you, the Dodger organization and I share the same goal – to bring World Series parades to the streets of Los Angeles.”

Ohtani is guaranteed an astounding $700MM on the deal, as revealed in a statement from his CAA agent Nez Balelo.  However, the contract comes with a staggering set of deferrals, a concept apparently suggested by Ohtani himself.  Ohtani will only collect $2MM of his salaries annually over the course of the next decade.  The remaining $680MM is deferred to be paid out between 2034-43, thereby reducing the contract’s competitive balance tax number to roughly $46MM.

Regardless of how that distribution, the 29-year-old Ohtani lands the single largest contract ever given to a professional athlete.  The $700MM guarantee surpasses the $674MM deal that soccer legend Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona for the 2017-21 La Liga seasons.

“First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone involved with the Angels organization and the fans who have supported me over the past six years, as well as to everyone involved with each team that was part of this negotiation process,” Ohtani said in his Instagram message.  “Especially to the Angels fans who supported me through all the ups and downs, your guys’ support and cheer meant the world to me. The six years I spent with the Angels will remain etched in my heart forever.  And to all Dodgers fans, I pledge to always do what’s best for the team and always continue to give it my all to be the best version of myself.  Until the last day of my playing career, I want to continue to strive forward not only for the Dodgers but for the baseball world.”

Balelo’s statement: “Shohei is thrilled to be a part of the Dodgers organization.  He is excited to begin this partnership, and he structured his contract to reflect a true commitment from both sides to long-term success. Shohei and I want to thank all the organizations that reached out to us for their interest and respect, especially the wonderful people we got to know even better as this process unfolded.  We know fans, media and the entire industry had a high degree of interest in this process, and we want to express our appreciation for their passion and their consideration as it played out.”

Aaron Judge’s ten-year, $360MM deal with the Yankees last winter was the largest free agent deal in baseball history, while Mookie Betts landing $365MM in new money in his 2020 extension with the Dodgers was technically the largest deal overall.  Mike Trout’s ten-year, $360MM extension with the Angels was considered by the team as a 12-year, $426.5MM pact due to its inclusion of previously owed money in Trout’s previous deal, but while that extension had been considered by some to hold the “biggest contract ever” title, Ohtani’s contact now ends all debate.

While it was widely expected that Ohtani would set a new standard for baseball contracts this winter, nearly doubling the Betts/Judge totals is an incredible new benchmark.  The $700MM figure speaks to several factors — Ohtani’s generational talent as a two-way superstar, the amount of revenue Ohtani can personally generate in terms of additional endorsements and fan interest from Japan, the number of big-money offers made by the other known suitors in the race, and simply the Dodgers’ determination to land a player who has been on their radar for years.

If the National League had had the designated hitter in 2018, it is quite possible Ohtani would’ve signed with the Dodgers when he initially came to MLB from Nippon Professional Baseball during the 2017-18 offseason.  The Dodgers (along with the Cubs, Rangers, Padres, Mariners, and Giants) were the finalists behind the Angels, whose willingness to give Ohtani free reign as both a pitcher and a hitter allowed the Anaheim club to seal the deal, and set the stage for one of the most remarkable stretches baseball has ever seen.

The impact was immediately, as Ohtani hit and pitched at such as high level in 2018 that he was an easy choice as AL Rookie Of The Year.  He had to undergo a Tommy John surgery that kept him off the mound in 2019, though he was still able to hit as a DH and posted some impressive numbers.  However, an injury-marred 2020 campaign saw Ohtani deliver poor numbers at the plate and only 1 2/3 total innings on the mound, creating doubt as to whether he could truly live up to the hype.

The doubts were erased from 2021-23.  Ohtani posted a 2.84 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate over 428 1/3 innings on the mound, while also hitting .277/.379/.585 with 124 home runs over 1904 plate appearances.  Not even Babe Ruth amassed such levels of performance while both hitting and pitching at the same time, earning Ohtani the unofficial nickname of “the Unicorn.”  Ohtani won AL MVP honors in both 2021 and 2023, and finished second to Judge in 2022 in the aftermath of Judge’s AL-record 62 home runs.

As stunning as Ohtani’s contract is, it seems possible that he might’ve landed even more if he’d been fully healthy.  Ohtani suffered a tear in his UCL that required surgery in September, and though it isn’t clear whether or not his surgery was another Tommy John procedure or a brace procedure, he isn’t expected to pitch during the 2024 season.  It seems likely that Ohtani will miss some time at the start of next season to recover well enough to operate as a DH, and after his TJ surgery in 2018, he was able to get onto the field by May 7, 2019.

More details should become available as we get closer to Spring Training, though that perhaps isn’t a sure bet given Ohtani and Balelo’s penchant for keeping quiet on specifics.  Ohtani’s last few months have been marked by a somewhat unprecedented level of secrecy about not just his health, but any hints about his free agent market.  It was made clear by Balelo that leaking details to the media would be marked against any team in the chase, and thus most clubs played ball with the Ohtani camp’s requests.

The lack of information led to no end of speculation about what exactly Ohtani was looking for in his next team.  It was known that Ohtani was eager to win, which perhaps isn’t surprising considering that the Angels were never able to deliver even a .500 season with both Ohtani and Trout on the roster.  Ohtani’s initial venture to MLB prioritized West Coast teams, yet that didn’t appear to be a true determining factor in this case.  The reported finalists for Ohtani’s services included three West Coast teams (the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants), as well as the Cubs against, and a new suitor altogether in the Blue Jays.

Two reports yesterday suggested that Ohtani was signing with the Jays and was en route to Toronto, leading to a social media flurry that included everything from flight-tracking at Toronto’s Pearson Airport to queries about a large reservation allegedly booked by Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi at a downtown sushi restaurant.  In the end, the Blue Jays fell short in their attempt to sign the two-way star, though as with all of the suitors, it could be that Dodgers’ final offer simply blew every other bid out of the water.

Ohtani’s free agency in some ways held up the rest of the market entirely, as several top talents were waiting for Ohtani’s situation to be resolved so they could have a clearer picture of what teams might be bidding on their own services.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, and others might now see their markets kick into higher gear with Ohtani off the board.  The trickle-down effect bled into the trade market as well, as numerous teams with players available can now shop for offers from clubs who missed out on Ohtani — and might be even more pressed to make a big addition.

The Giants, for instance, are still feeling the heat to add a superstar after also falling short on Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason.  The Blue Jays still have a lot of holes to fill in their lineup after an almost team-wide lack of consistency at the plate in 2023.  The Cubs were perhaps seen as less likely to spend to quite the same level as other suitors, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer firmly denied a report from earlier this week suggesting that Chicago was out of the hunt.  The Mets, Red Sox, and Rangers did seemingly pull back prior to the start of the Winter Meetings, whereas speculative candidates like the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, or Mariners never seemed involved to any great extent.

The Angels have the toughest pill to swallow in seeing Ohtani not just leave, but head across town to the other Los Angeles team.  Because the Halos were just barely able to maneuver themselves under the luxury tax threshold, the Angels will maximize their compensatory return for Ohtani, who naturally rejected a qualifying offer.  Anaheim will now get a compensatory pick after the second round of the 2024 draft, which is admittedly small consolation for losing one of the game’s all-time singular talents.  There hasn’t been any sense that the Angels are planning to rebuild or take a step back now that Ohtani is gone, as the team has reportedly still been trying to add top-end talent to finally get back into contention.

As for the Dodgers, they got their man, cost be damned.  They’ll also surrender $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft — to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer.  Ohtani now joins Betts and Freddie Freeman in one of the more fearsome top-of-the-order trios in recent memory, and solidifies at least the DH spot in Chavez Ravine for the next decade.  There have been some whispers that Ohtani might try his hand at playing the outfield should he ever opt to stop pitching, and while he did make some brief appearances as an outfielder during his time with the Halos, the question of a future position probably isn’t being raised for at least a few years down the road, or until Ohtani has exhausted all options as a pitcher.

Ohtani’s arm injury was particularly troublesome for the Dodgers in the short term, as the club is still in need of pitching help heading into 2024.  Walker Buehler is returning after missing all of 2023 due to his own TJ surgery, swingman Ryan Yarbrough is probably penciled into one rotation spot for at least the start of the season, and Bobby Miller has all but officially won himself a spot after an impressive rookie year.  That leaves a collection of other young arms (Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone) battling for other rotation spots, and Dustin May could be a factor by midseason once recovered from a flexor tendon surgery.  Longtime ace Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss a big chunk of the 2024 campaign due to shoulder surgery, though it would seem that if Kershaw decides to keep playing, it will be either with the Dodgers or with his hometown Rangers.

Yamamoto is known to be another target on the Dodgers’ wishlist, while Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow are two of the undoubtedly many more experienced pitchers L.A. has discussed in trade talks.  The Dodgers could perhaps trade from their deep farm system to facilitate some pitching trades, or make yet another big signing.  Even after adding Ohtani to the books, the Dodgers had created enough space on the books that they’re only slightly over the $237MM luxury tax threshold — as per Roster Resource, the club’s projected tax number is just over $244MM.  Since Los Angeles hasn’t been reluctant to pay a tax bill in the past, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman can continue to be aggressive as the team enters the Ohtani era.

Despite 11 straight playoff appearances and 10 of the last 11 NL West titles, the Dodgers have captured “only” one World Series title within this fantastic run of success.  All those postseason near-misses have left something of an underwhelming feeling amongst Dodger fans, and the team has won only a single playoff game over its last two trips to October.  It always felt as though the Dodgers were going to be pushing to sign Ohtani no matter their recent results, yet his addition perhaps acts as some kind of turning point in translating a few more of those playoff visits into championship rings.

Claiming that the Dodgers will become even more of a high-profile franchise is a little difficult to claim, since obviously the club’s long line of past Japanese stars has made them a household name overseas.  Still, adding the biggest star of all in Ohtani will only enhance the Dodgers as a worldwide brand.  The added marketing, merchandising, and broadcasting revenues that come with signing Ohtani won’t exactly cover $700MM, yet it isn’t a stretch to say that the Dodgers will enjoy some unprecedented economic benefits in addition to what Ohtani delivers on the field.

Alden Gonzalez of ESPN reported the absence of any opt-out clauses. His colleague Jeff Passan first reported the majority of Ohtani’s contract would be deferred, while Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic was first with the deferral specifics. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the no-trade provision.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dodgers Re-Sign Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers announced that they have re-signed right-hander Joe Kelly to a one-year, $8MM contract. Los Angeles passed on a $9.5MM club option on the ACES client last month, instead buying Kelly out for $1MM and sending him into free agency.

This will mark Kelly’s third separate stint in Dodger Blue.  The reliever first joined the team on a three-year, $25MM free agent contract during the 2018-19 offseason, and after L.A. declined a $12MM club option for a fourth year of that deal, Kelly signed with the White Sox on a two-year, $17MM pact.  2023 was the last guaranteed year of that deal, and with Chicago caught in the midst of a disastrous season, the Sox moved Kelly and Lance Lynn to the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline.

Kelly had a 4.97 ERA over 29 innings for the White Sox prior to the trade, but he regained his form in his old stomping grounds with a sparking 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings over 11 appearances for the Dodgers.  Since Kelly’s secondary numbers with Chicago had been far more impressive than his ERA, the Dodgers bet correctly that Kelly was due some positive course-correction.  For the season as a whole, Kelly posted a 4.12 ERA, 58% grounder rate, 35.7% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate over 39 1/3 innings.  While the walk rate is on the high side, the outstanding strikeout and grounder numbers made up for some shaky control, and Kelly’s arm is still very live at age 35, with a fastball averaging 98.9mph.

Despite these results, Kelly’s health has been a question mark, which likely factored into the Dodgers’ decision to decline that $9.5MM option.  Kelly has been on the injured list eight times over the last four seasons, with three of those stints (due to forearm inflammation, elbow inflammation, and a groin strain) coming in 2023.  While none of the injuries were overly serious, the cumulative IL time cost Kelly around two months of the season, and creates some doubt about how well he can hold up over the course of a full campaign and into what the Dodgers hope will be a deep run into the playoffs.

The bullpen was a big strength for the Dodgers last season, and reinforcing that strength is of particular import considering all of the questions L.A. is facing in the starting rotation.  The Dodgers will surely add some depth and possibly even some superstar arms to the pitching staff by winter’s end, yet obviously it helps the run prevention efforts on the whole if the relief corps has enough depth and quality to help bail out the starters.  Evan Phillips will return as the closer, with Kelly joining Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson as primary setup options.

Robert Murray of FanSided originally reported that the two sides were “very close” to a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic first reported the terms.

Dodgers Trade Victor Gonzalez To Yankees

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11:03am: The two teams have announced the trade.

9:48am: The Yankees are acquiring left-handed reliever Victor Gonzalez and minor league infield prospect Jorbit Vivas from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league infielder Trey Sweeney, reports Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Yankees were acquiring a pair of 40-man players from the Dodgers in exchange for a prospect not on New York’s 40-man. The trade clears a pair of spots on L.A.’s roster to accommodate the signings of Shohei Ohtani and Joe Kelly.

Gonzalez, 28, has a minor league option remaining but also comes to the Yankees with a solid MLB track record. He’s capable of stepping directly into manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen and will likely be viewed as a favorite to do so. He has far more big league experience than fellow southpaw Matt Krook, making Gonzalez an option to join Nick Ramirez as a second southpaw option for Boone.

Gonzalez missed the 2022 season due to an elbow injury that required an arthroscopic debridement procedure, but he’s logged 89 1/3 innings for the Dodgers from 2020-23, pitching to a 3.22 earned run average with solid strikeout and walk rates (23.2% and 8.4%, respectively) in addition to a massive 58.1% grounder rate. The Yankees tend to gravitate toward relievers with plus ground-ball rates and better-than-average velocity, and Gonzalez checks both boxes, averaging just under 95 mph with a sinker that tops out in the upper 90s.

Gonzalez’s 2023 season wasn’t as sharp as his dominant 2020 MLB debut, but he still posted a 4.01 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that were actually improvements over their 2021 levels. The lefty is also among the game’s best in terms of inducing weak contact, evidenced by a career 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 30.7% hard-hit rate — both drastically lower than this past season’s respective league averages of 89 mph and 39.2%.

The Yankees can control Gonzalez for an additional three seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just a $1MM salary in 2024 and will be due subsequent raises building off that foundation in 2025 and 2026 before reaching the open market in the 2026-27 offseason. Gonzalez offers a similar skill set to that of free agent Wandy Peralta, whom the Yankees have reportedly had interest in re-signing, but Gonzalez will come at a fraction of the fiscal cost.

New York also acquires the 22-year-old Vivas, who’s generally considered one of the better prospects in a deep Dodgers farm. MLB.com pegs him tenth in the system, while FanGraphs had him 11th and Baseball America ranked him 20th. All of those rankings are dated by a few months now, but there’s little that Vivas did during his 2023 campaign to radically drop his stock. He posted an excellent .280/.391/.436 slash with 12 homers, 21 steals and more walks than strikeouts in 109 games as a 22-year-old against older competition in Double-A last year.

Vivas jumped to Triple-A late in the season and turned in a lackluster .225/.339/.294 showing at the top minor league level, but that came in a tiny sample of 121 plate appearances and still came with elite walk (12.4%) and strikeout (15.7%) rates. He’s seen time at both second base and third base, though scouting reports on him question whether he’ll have the arm to ultimately handle the hot corner in the Majors. Even if he doesn’t, Vivas is a close-to-MLB-ready second base prospect with a plus hit tool, double-digit home run power and solid baserunning instincts.

In exchange for an affordable Peralta replacement and a quality second base prospect, the Yankees will surrender Sweeney, whom they selected with the No. 20 overall selection in the 2021 draft. Sweeney briefly reached Double-A as a 22-year-old in 2022, but the 2023 season was his first year with notable experience at that level. The 23-year-old handled himself well, batting .252/.367/.411 in a generally pitcher-friendly setting, popping 13 homers and swiping 20 bases with a gaudy 13.8% walk rate and lower-than-average 19.1% strikeout rate.

Sweeney is a well-regarded prospect himself, but perhaps a step below the rung many Yankees fans would expect based on his draft pedigree. FanGraphs ranked him third in the Yankees’ system, but MLB.com had him eighth and Baseball America tabbed him 15th. Sweeney is a bat-first prospect whose long-term future hinges on whether he can stick at shortstop, move to third base on a full-time basis, or settle in as a utility infielder who can bounce around the diamond. He’s a relatively near-MLB addition to the Dodgers’ system, effectively replacing Vivas but doing so without requiring a spot on the 40-man roster until next offseason.

Blue Jays Made Competitive Offer To Shohei Ohtani

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Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Dodgers for a record-breaking ten-year, $700MM deal sent shockwaves around the sports world, though a particularly heavy dose of the impact settled in Toronto.  Blue Jays fans (and possibly the team itself ) spent much of Friday wondering if Ohtani had decided on the Jays as his next destination, and a pair of now-debunked media reports only added to the fever of speculation.

The full story of the Jays’ pursuit of the two-way star might not be known for some time, yet in pure financial terms, it seems as though the club at least came close to the final asking price.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith hears from a source that the Blue Jays’ offer to Ohtani was “right there,” so it doesn’t appear as though the Dodgers’ $700MM deal was too far removed from what the Jays (or potentially other suitors) put on the table.

Given how Ohtani’s contract is so far beyond the normal stratosphere for baseball contracts or sports contracts in general, it is fair to assume that teams’ approach also differed greatly from a normal free agent courtship.  This was already apparent with the immense level of secrecy requested by Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo, as every detail (true or exaggerated) that leaked out about Ohtani’s intentions was heavily scrutinized.

As Nicholson-Smith notes, there have already been conspiracy theories launched that Balelo and CAA used the Jays’ interest as a smokescreen to get the Dodgers to up their offer at the last minute since Los Angeles was Ohtani’s preferred choice all along.  Or, perhaps the simplest answer is true — the Blue Jays did enough to make themselves a genuine consideration in the two-time AL MVP’s mind, regardless of where the Dodgers may or may not have ranked for Ohtani heading into the offseason.

Learning that the Jays got within the ballpark of signing Ohtani probably doesn’t ease much or any of the sting for Toronto fans.  The fact that the Blue Jays were willing to spend perhaps upwards of $650MM, $675MM, or whatever the final bid was also doesn’t necessarily mean that the team has that much to spend in general this offseason, considering the special nature of Ohtani’s on-field ability and starpower.

Still, the Jays haven’t been shy about spending over the last few seasons, and the team has also been linked to such major free agents as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, former Jay Matt Chapman, and a host of other players on the free agent and trade markets.  GM Ross Atkins has typically looked to at least check in on just about every notable free agent of the last few years, so this broad strategy could help the Blue Jays make a quick pivot as they explore their backup plans.

Yankees To Acquire Two 40-Man Roster Players From Dodgers

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The Yankees are poised to acquire two players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster in exchange for a prospect not on the 40-man, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The names of the players in the deal are not yet known. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms Rosenthal’s report while adding that the deal, which is pending a medical review, would send one “end of roster” pitcher to the Yankees alongside a prospect on the 40-man roster. The deal would clear 40-man roster spots for LA’s reported deals with right-hander Joe Kelly and superstar Shohei Ohtani.

While it’s unclear which players are changing hands in the deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the sides would get together on such a trade. After all, the Dodgers’ 40-man roster is currently full, meaning they already needed to clear space on the 40-man to formally add Kelly and Ohtani. On the other hand, the Yankees just cleared two spots from their own 40-man roster in a seven-player trade with the Padres that brought back star slugger Juan Soto. While the additions of both Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham take up 40-man roster spots, that’s more than made up for by the departures of right-handers Jhony Brito, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka. A deal between the sides allows the Dodgers to recoup some value for players they likely would have had to part with anyway, while the Yankees figure to take advantage of LA’s roster crunch to begin rebuilding its pitching depth in the aftermath of the Soto deal.

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