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Manny Machado

This Date In Transactions History: The $300MM Man(ny)

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It has been exactly one year since the biggest signing in the history of the San Diego franchise became official. The team stunningly pulled in former Orioles and Dodgers third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300MM contract. The deal easily trumped the Padres’ previous record contract – the eight-year, $144MM pact they awarded first baseman Eric Hosmer in February 2018.

Along with outfielder Bryce Harper, Machado entered last winter’s free-agent market as one of the most ballyhooed free agents of all-time. The two made for rare in-their-prime superstars to get to that stage, but it took quite some time for either to find landing spots. Unlike this offseason, free agency moved at a glacial pace then, leaving Machado and Harper without teams until almost March. However, both ultimately inked two of the richest contracts free agency has seen (Harper’s $330MM guarantee still stands as the largest ever awarded on the open market).

When Machado became a free agent, expectations were he’d sign with a big-spending team like the Yankees, but they and others decided to go in another direction. And Machado didn’t do himself any favors when he said during the prior fall that he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.’” Nevertheless, he arrived on the market as an incredibly accomplished player.

Upon getting to free agency, Machado was a 26-year-old with four All-Star nods and two Gold Gloves under his belt, and he showed he could handle both short and third with aplomb. Furthermore, from his first full season in 2013 through 2018, Machado batted .283/.337/.489 with 168 home runs, accounting for the seventh-highest fWAR among position players (28.9). For the most part, he was also rather durable in that span, twice appearing in 162 games in a season and amassing at least 150 appearances five times.

Machado’s sturdiness continued in his first season as a Padre in 2019, when he took part in 156 games. The longtime shortstop did see time there, but only because stellar youngster Fernando Tatis Jr. missed a significant amount of action thanks to injuries. The plan was (and continues to be) for Machado and Tatis to form one of the premier left sides of the infield in baseball. When healthy, there’s a case they did just that, though Machado’s first year in San Diego was arguably somewhat disappointing. Primarily a third baseman, Machado took 661 plate appearances and hit .256/.334/.462 – good for a slightly above-average 108 wRC+. That comes off as pedestrian in comparison to some of his past seasons, yet he still mashed 32 homers and recorded 3.1 fWAR.

Most teams would sign up for the type of production Machado offered in 2019 from their third basemen. However, the Padres probably wanted more bang for their buck in the first season of a $300MM contract. Perhaps the Padres will get it this season, as Machado has shown an ability in the past to bounce back from seasons that have been so-so by his standards (compare his 2017 to his 2018, for example). If he returns to elite form, it would only help the Padres in their quest to break what’s now a 13-year playoff drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

Poll: Grading Manny Machado’s 2019

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The long-suffering Padres made a stunning strike in free agency last offseason when they signed former Orioles and Dodgers  infielder Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract in late February. For a short period, Machado’s deal stood as the richest in the history of the game. Outfielder Bryce Harper – who, along with Machado – owned baseball-related headlines last winter, surpassed him less than two weeks later with a 13-year, $330MM guarantee from the Phillies. Harper was more good than great in the first year of his accord, though, while Machado probably wasn’t as strong as many expected him to be in his San Diego debut.

In the end, neither Harper nor Machado led their teams to drought-breaking playoff berths in 2019. The Padres won a paltry 70 games and extended their postseason-less streak to a whopping 13 years, though they surely remain hopeful Machado will help them back to relevance in short order. However, for the Padres to maximize their chances of success as they move ahead, they’re going to need the more productive version of Machado to reappear.

To his credit, Machado continued an impressive run of durability in 2019, appearing in at least 156 games for the fifth consecutive season. He also belted upward of 30 home runs (32) for the fifth year in a row. Overall, though, the Machado who was a dominant offensive player as recently as 2018, when he posted a wRC+ of 140 en route to 6.2 fWAR, wasn’t present. Machado’s wRC+ dropped to 108 this year, while his fWAR total fell to 3.0. Both figures are respectable, but they don’t make for superstar-caliber output. The same can obviously be said of the .256/.334/.462 line Machado recorded over 661 plate appearances. And Statcast doesn’t indicate Machado deserved a better fate at the plate, evidenced by his matching .339 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA (a steep drop-off from his .377/.372 in 2018).

On the defensive side, Machado remained a stalwart at third base, where he accounted for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-2.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Per the metrics, Machado was less successful at shortstop (minus-2 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR), but that doesn’t figure to be his long-term spot anyway. He saw 299 innings at the position because of multiple lengthy injured list stints for rookie Fernando Tatis Jr., who, when healthy, showed why he’s one of the most coveted young players in baseball.

Machado, for his part, is still plenty youthful in his own right. He won’t turn 28 until next July, and even though the four-time All-Star wasn’t a force this season, the left side of San Diego’s infield will remain in enviable shape going forward with him and Tatis in the fold. As for this year, though, how would you assess Machado’s performance?

(Poll link for app users)

Padres Reportedly Willing To Trade Most Position Players

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Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe has come up in trade rumors this week, and the club is indeed willing to deal the 27-year-old slugger, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. However, Renfroe’s not the only Padre who could end up on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. The team’s willing to give up “virtually” any of its position players except for shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., third baseman Manny Machado and first baseman Eric Hosmer, according to Acee.

The Padres’ goal in dealing from its current position player cast would be to upgrade offensively at two spots – catcher and center field – and add “young arms,” per Acee. Their desire to pick up controllable pitching has long been known, though it’s interesting they want a better offensive backstop.

Major leaguers Austin Hedges and Austin Allen haven’t hit, but Triple-A catcher Francisco Mejia rode his potential at the plate into high rankings on prospect lists not long ago. As recently as last summer, when the Padres acquired Mejia from the Indians for relievers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, Keith Law of ESPN regarded Mejia as one of the game’s top five farmhands. While Mejia has struggled mightily in the majors since then, he’s still just 23 and has tallied a mere 134 plate appearances in the bigs. It’s unclear from Acee’s report whether the Padres would be open to parting with Mejia, who has raked since they optioned him to the minors last month, or if they just don’t think he’s ready to make an offensive impact at the game’s highest level yet.

The 26-year-old Hedges has made an MLB impact, meanwhile, but almost solely behind the plate. Hedges rates as an elite defender, and though he was a respectable offensive player just last season, he otherwise hasn’t hit much since his 2015 debut.

Likewise, center fielder Manuel Margot has seldom hit since the Padres first promoted him in 2015. There has been talk of San Diego demoting him to the minors to help alleviate its outfield logjam. But as a 24-year-old speedster who has excelled in the field and won’t reach arbitration until the offseason, he’d likely draw interest on the trade market.

Perhaps aside from Renfroe, right fielder Franmil Reyes stands out as the Padres’ most valuable trade chip among position players. They offer similar offensive skill sets, and Renfroe’s a much better defender, though Reyes is three-plus years younger. Set to turn 24 in July, Reyes has slashed .263/.320/.520 (123 wRC+) with 35 home runs in 516 PA since he first came up last season. Further increasing Reyes’ appeal, he’s earning a minimal salary and isn’t scheduled to reach arbitration until after the 2021 season.

If the Padres keep Renfroe and Reyes, perhaps they’d consider trading fellow corner outfielder Josh Naylor. The 21-year-old Naylor hasn’t gotten off to a strong start since the Padres promoted him May 24, but he’s a top 100 prospect or close to it. Franchy Cordero, yet another of their young corner outfielders, seems likely to stay put when considering his recent injury issues. Cordero, 24, has missed most of the past season-plus with right elbow issues, and he suffered a mild quad injury while rehabbing this week.

As for the rest of San Diego’s roster, outfielder Wil Myers and second baseman Ian Kinsler jump to the fore as players the team would probably like to move. The trade value is minimal in both cases, though.

Myers, 28, hasn’t lived up to the six-year, $83MM contract the Padres gave him in January 2017. They backloaded the deal, meaning he’s owed almost $63MM through 2022 (including a $1MM buyout in ’23). Although Myers was a 30-home run hitter as recently as 2017, he’s still just a .242/.324/.450 batter (106 wRC+) dating back to then.

Kinsler, 36, joined the Padres on a two-year, $8MM contract in the offseason. While Kinsler has long been a quality major leaguer, the Padres haven’t gotten much return on their investment so far. Kinsler has hit .204/.264/.387 (72 wRC+) with minus-0.3 fWAR in 201 PA., though he has fared much better following an ice-cold April (.262/.309/.505 since May 1). Regardless of whether the Padres find a taker for Kinsler, it seems like only a matter of time before he loses his starting spot to standout prospect Luis Urias.

After a surprisingly competitive start to the season, San Diego has begun fading from the National League playoff race. Losers of five straight, the Padres sit 33-36 and 5 1/2 games out of wild-card position. However, with the talent already on hand and the high-potential players baking in the minors, the club may not be far away from contending on an annual basis. It seems general manager A.J. Preller will operate aggressively over the next month-plus in an effort to better position his roster to accomplish that. With that in mind, the Padres should be a compelling team to watch leading up to the deadline.

Players Lobbied Ownership For Tatis Jr. To Make Padres Opening Day Roster

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In two straight offseasons, the Padres have acted out of character with the splashy free agent signings of Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. Those same players took it upon themselves this Spring to back one of their own. Per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Hosmer and Machado met with Padres owner Ron Fowler over dinner, lobbying for the promotion of young star Fernando Tatis Jr. Fowler was apparently amenable to the idea as Tatis Jr., 20, made the Opening Day roster, as did top pitching prospect Chris Paddack, 23.

In what’s become more-or-less boilerplate around the league, teams have taken to holding presumably-ML-ready prospects in the upper minors for the first few weeks of the season, thereby gaining an extra year of team control. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most obvious current example, while the White Sox finagled a workaround by signing Eloy Jimenez to an extension, prompting concerns over the use of this practice as negotiating leverage. The Padres decision to go against the grain was a breath of fresh air in an otherwise fiscally conservative marketplace.

After all, they aren’t considered favorites for postseason play. But there is a certain harmony to kicking off this era of Padres baseball with Machado and Tatis Jr. together on the left side of the infield, and after spending big on Hosmer and Machado, there’s an argument to be made that now is the time to maximize their odds of competing. The move costs the Padres the possibility of a seventh season of team control down the line, but there’s baseball being played today in San Diego, and it certainly make for a better show with Tatis Jr. in the lineup.

Through two games, Tatis Jr. has three hits in six at-bats while batting sixth in the order. Paddack, 23, is expected to make his debut on Sunday, getting the start at home against the Giants.

Ken Williams Discusses White Sox Pursuit Of Machado, Harper

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The White Sox took a rare foray into the high-end free agent market this winter but came away empty-handed in their attempts to sign either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.  Machado ended up signing a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres, while Harper landed the most guaranteed money in baseball history ($330MM) on a 13-year contract from the Phillies.

In the wake of those enormous deals, White Sox executive VP Ken Williams defended his team against criticism from fans and pundits that the Sox should have spent more to come away with one of the two superstars.  “It’s a shame if it’s being portrayed that we were on the cheap on this thing,” Williams told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “That’s really interesting because, holy s—, that’s a quarter of a billion dollars we offered [Machado] with a chance to be higher than what he’s getting.”

In regards to Harper, the White Sox had meetings with the outfielder and agent Scott Boras, but the team ultimately felt Harper’s asking price was simply too high, though Williams liked Harper personally.  With Machado, however, the Sox made a much more ardent push, including the contract Williams referenced.

Chicago’s top offer to Machado was a reported $250MM in guaranteed money over eight years, plus a pair of $35MM vesting options for the 2027 and 2028 seasons.  Additional escalators and incentives could have maxed the deal out at $350MM over the decade-long span.  Based just on the guaranteed years, Machado would’ve received an average annual value of $31.25MM per season, topping the $30MM AAV he’ll receive in San Diego.

“People are lost on the fact that on a yearly basis, our offer was more than San Diego’s….So it was about years guaranteed,” Williams said.  “So there is an argument that could be made that our offer was the better of the two. It certainly had more upside for him. All he had to do was basically stay healthy.”

Williams shared in the fanbase’s disappointment that neither player was signed, saying that, “Rest assured that no one is feeling what Rick [White Sox GM Rick Hahn] and I are feeling because every single day since June of last year, this is what we had planned for, the pursuit of both Harper and Machado.

“Harper [was] well out of our range. With Machado, we extended ourselves as far as we could without jeopardizing what we’re going to need to do in the future….Our fans would have been much more disappointed in our inability to keep this next core together.  We would have overextended ourselves had we gone to an uncomfortable level.”

Williams isn’t wrong in suggesting that a $250MM offer is a major commitment — after all, prior to Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies and the Harper/Machado signings, only three contracts in baseball history had ever topped the $250MM guaranteed money threshold.  The most obvious counter-argument, of course, is that if the Sox were willing to go that far in their offer, it seems short-sighted to then ask Machado to absorb the risk for the vesting option years.  It’s no small feat for any player to “basically stay healthy” in their mid-30’s, and it’s hard to imagine any player passing on that guarantee from the Padres for 2027-28 in order to chase the opportunity for only $20MM-$50MM more in salary from the White Sox.  (I say “only” since that amount wouldn’t seem particularly enticing to a player like Machado who’d already amassed a fortune. By that same token, an extra $1.25MM in AAV is something of a drop in the bucket someone already making $30MM.)

The comments about how a Machado deal could impact future contracts might be tougher for White Sox fans to swallow.  After all, the team has just $15.25MM on the books for the 2020 season, and Tim Anderson is the only player guaranteed money in 2021 and beyond.

As Van Schouwen notes, young stars like Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon, and Anderson won’t start to get expensive for years.  Anderson is already signed to an extension through at least 2022, Rodon has two arbitration years remaining, Moncada won’t be arb-eligible until 2021, Kopech has barely pitched at the MLB level, and Jimenez has yet to even make his Major League debut.  Even all five of these players did develop into stars, extensions for all on top of a ten-year Machado contract shouldn’t have been much of a stretch for a club that plays in a major market like Chicago (and just landed a new broadcasting rights contract).

Quick Hits: JDM, Jose Martinez, Marwin, Padres

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Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez didn’t mince any words in his take on the slowed free agent market of the last two offseasons, describing the situation as “embarrassing for baseball” in comments to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  “You have a business. They say, ’The market is down, the market is changing.’ The market is higher than it’s ever been,” Martinez said.  “People are making more money than ever, and they’re trying to suppress it. It’s more of a race towards the bottom now than a race towards the top. You can go right now through everyone’s lineup and you already know who’s going to be in the playoffs. What’s the fun in that? We might as well just fast-forward to the end of the season.”  Martinez had his own frustrating trip through free agency last winter, as it wasn’t until late February that he finally landed his current five-year, $110MM deal with the Sox.  For the next round of collective bargaining agreement negotiations, Martinez feels the MLBPA needs to be better prepared to counter what Martinez feels is a lack of competitiveness (“Losing is incentivized now.“) from the majority of teams.

In other labor news, representatives from the players’ union will meet with Rangers, White Sox, and Dodgers players on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.  MLBPA reps regularly make separate trips to visit every team during Spring Training, though three teams gathering en masse for a meeting is unusual.  “It’s not hard to understand the symbolism: Players are prepared to show unity,” Grant writes.

Here’s more from around baseball…

  • Rival evaluators were “greatly surprised” that Marwin Gonzalez couldn’t find a three-year contract, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), as the utilityman instead inked a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins.  Agent Scott Boras initially targeted a four-year deal worth around $60MM for his client, and while Gonzalez’s versatility drew interest from many teams, none were willing to approach that price.  (MLBTR also predicted a four-year contract for Gonzalez, though only at $36MM.)  Olney wonders if utilitymen like Gonzalez are better served by signing earlier rather than later when testing free agency, and Olney also suggested that a reunion between Gonzalez and the Astros could have materialized if Houston had realized the player’s market would be so limited.  The Astros seemed to move on early from Gonzalez, acquiring Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays to serve in a utility role.
  • Jose Martinez’s two-year, $3.25MM extension was “something beyond a business decision” for the Cardinals, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  The unusual deal only covers this season (a pre-arbitration year for Martinez) and the slugger’s first year of arbitration of eligibility, so there technically wasn’t any urgency on the team’s part to get a deal done.  In fact, Martinez was the subject of trade rumors for much of the winter, both from MLB teams and in Japan.  Not wanting to either sell Martinez to the Japanese team or deprive the player of some added financial security, the extension served as a means to satisfy both Martinez and the Cardinals.  (Not to mention the clubhouse as a whole, as other Cardinals players were happy to hear that their popular teammate had a new contract.)  For Martinez, he cashes in his first big professional payday, which he said will go to help his family in Venezuela.
  • Manny Machado’s ten-year, $300MM contract cracked a new spending threshold for the Padres, though as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Bryce Miller writes, such an acquisition opens up new revenues pathways to account for that expenditure.  Machado’s signing has already seen a $1MM boost in ticket sales, according to club chairman Ron Fowler, plus TV and radio ratings are expected to be on the rise.  Being featured on national ESPN/FOX games, as well, provides a wider marketing opportunity for the Padres, as well as just gaining more general exposure to the broader public.  Of course, the opportunity to create revenue is “all a product of winning,” Padres president of business operations Erik Greupner reminds.  “With a player like Manny, there’s immediately a buzz and return on the business side.  What’s more important for the long-term is what this translates to on the field.”

Padres Sign Manny Machado

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Feb. 21: The Padres have formally announced the signing and confirmed the terms of the contract (10 years, $300MM). To clear room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Dinelson Lamet was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Per Heyman, the deal will pay Machado $30MM annually and contain a six-team no-trade clause (Twitter links). Technically, the first season of the deal is paid out in the form of a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus — that latter of which is not subject to the same level of taxation as Machado’s actual salary. Machado will play third base in San Diego.

Feb. 19, 10:20pm: Machado’s deal doesn’t contain any deferred money, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

6:23pm: Machado’s deal will contain limited no-trade protection, Passan tweets. The contract should be formally announced Thursday or Friday, he adds.

12:58pm: There are some key elements of the deal still to be worked out, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Notably, the sides have yet to hammer out terms on trade protection. That said, it seems the final pieces are not expected to pose an obstacle to the contract’s completion. Machado will receive the $300MM on a fairly evenly spread basis, with the opt-out chance midway through the deal.

11:27am: The Padres have agreed to terms on a free agent contract with star infielder Manny Machado, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s a ten-year, $300MM deal for the MVP Sports Group client, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). The contract includes an opt-out after the fifth season, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).

Nothing is formally concluded here, it bears noting. If nothing else, it seems a physical will still need to be completed. Padres chairman Ron Fowler says a deal is not complete, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter), saying the sides are “continuing discussions.” Of course, that hardly means there isn’t an agreement in principle on the key terms.

Certainly, the White Sox believe they’ve lost their primary winter target. VP Kenny Williams expressed shock in comments to reporters. “We could not go to that $300MM level,” he said (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, Twitter links). Williams indicated that he had believed the South Siders were the high bidders, and he maintains “there was more potential for him to make more here than that reported deal.” It seems, though, that Machado preferred the greater guaranteed money and other elements of his new deal to the structure proposed by a White Sox organization that had rolled out quite a welcome mat, including the acquisition of Machado’s comrades Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay.

It’s a stunning result for the 26-year-old Machado, whose long-running open-market saga has coincided with that of fellow star Bryce Harper. It took some time, but Machado will still spend the bulk of Spring Training with his new teammates.

Last year, the Friars shocked the baseball world by outbidding the market for first baseman Eric Hosmer. Now, they’ve followed up that move with a much bigger commitment to an even better and younger player.

The move plainly sets the Padres organization on a course to compete in the near-term, though the investment will hopefully coincide with a rather lengthy competitive window. It’s reasonable to wonder, though, whether this move sets the stage for further action this winter. The Padres have a fairly crowded outfield group, a ton of top prospect talent, and clear room to improve the MLB pitching staff. They could consider pursuing the top remaining open-market pitchers (Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez) while revisiting trade talks on other starters.

[RELATED: MLBTR Free Agent Tracker]

It’s not hard to see how this signing could have a ripple effect in the market, with the potential for a highly intriguing late-spring reignition of the hot stove. If nothing else, there’s now a clear mark for Harper to try to top, with several teams potentially interested in landing him after missing on Machado.

The 10/300 price is precisely where many anticipated Machado landing at the outset of the market. It sets a free agent record in terms of total guarantee, at least before adjusting for inflation, though falls shy of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension and may soon be topped by Harper’s own deal.

Despite his excellence to this point of his career, and the promise of many more productive seasons to come, Machado entered the market with some questions. He raised eyebrows with some questionable acts and words during the postseason, leaving many fans — and perhaps some organizational leaders — with the sense that, as he himself put it, he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.'”

Clearly, those oft-cited comments didn’t cost Machado a chance at a massive contract. He also picked up support of several former teammates and coaches, so it’s not as if there weren’t countervailing facts. Clearly, though, the ill-advised words didn’t help his cause. We’ll never know the full extent of the impact, but reduced interest from even a single potential suitor could have changed the way the market took shape. The Yankees never fully engaged despite making sense on paper, while it seems the Phillies passed on a chance to outbid the more budget-conscious Padres, though those and other organizations were surely weighing other factors as well.

In truth, the hustle chatter held such attention in no small part due to Machado’s otherwise mostly impeccable resume. He has topped 6 fWAR in three of the past four seasons, owing to a combination of outstanding glovework and well-rounded offensive production. Despite some knee issues earlier in his career, Machado has played all 162 games in two seasons (2015, 2018) and missed just 11 total contests in the two intervening campaigns.

Over his seven seasons in the majors, Machado carries a .282/.335/.487 batting line with 175 home runs. That perhaps understates his present ability with the bat, though, as Machado has posted 130+ wRC+ campaigns in three of the past four years and has hit between 33 and 37 long balls in all four seasons. He has also successfully honed his plate discipline over the years, setting career-best marks in 2018 with a 9.9% walk rate and 14.7% strikeout rate.

It’s a more interesting question on the defensive side of things. Machado had long graded as an outstanding defender at third base, but drew negative reviews upon shifting back to his native shortstop in 2018. Of course, the numbers reversed somewhat after he landed with the Dodgers in a mid-season trade, perhaps indicating that he still has the potential to handle short at an average or better clip if surrounded by the appropriate analytical resources and adjacent defenders.

Regardless, the plan seems to be for Machado to slide back to the hot corner in San Diego. The club has been searching for a piece there all winter long. Indications are that Luis Urias (with an assist from Greg Garcia) will keep the seat warm at shortstop while uber prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. finishes his development. Urias could ultimately slide back to second, though that position is occupied for the time being by veteran Ian Kinsler. Of course, as noted above, it still seems premature to guess at the overall roster picture, as the Padres could explore a nearly endless variety of complementary moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: The Manny Machado Signing

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We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.

Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.

First question (link for app users):

For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).

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As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.

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Followup Notes On The Manny Machado Deal

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After nearly four months of waiting, Manny Machado’s free agency came to a close Tuesday when he agreed to terms with the Padres on a 10-year, $300MM contract that represents the largest free-agent contract ever signed in American professional sports. Only Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM contract has ever guaranteed a player more money. Machado was pursued by other teams, most notably the Phillies, White Sox and (early in the offseason) the Yankees. While New York was already known to be out of the mix for Machado, the other two primary suitors still had hopes of reeling in one of the offseason’s biggest fish. With that in mind, here are some early reactions to the agreement and some notes on how those who missed out on Machado may proceed in the wake of today’s news…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets some insight into how the negotiations themselves played out. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, initially asked teams to submit their best offers in the final week of 2018. At the time, Machado had six clubs involved to varying extents. Those offers were shy of the $300MM guarantee Machado’s camp coveted, though, and rather than simply take the best offer presented, the agency continued working to drive up Machado’s price tag. Ultimately, of course, that proved to be a wise strategy. It’s not known just where Machado’s offers sat in early January, though Lozano made the rare move to publicly speak out against reports on Machado’s market, emphatically calling reports of Machado’s top offer sitting at seven years and $175MM “inaccurate and reckless … [and] completely wrong.”
  • The White Sox offered Machado a higher annual value than the Padres but less guaranteed overall money, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Chicago’s top bid for Machado was a $250MM guarantee over an eight-year term with vesting options and incentives that could’ve escalated the contract’s value to $350MM. It’s rare, however, to see players max out their incentives and escalators (particularly on a deal of this length), so it’s not surprising that Machado opted for the larger guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds a bit more context, reporting that Chicago’s proposal contained a pair of $35MM vesting options in addition to incentives and escalators.
  • Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that a high-ranking Padres official flatly informed him that the team will not sign Bryce Harper following the agreement with Machado. The Padres’ payroll will be in the neighborhood of $110MM — a franchise record — but while ownership is clearly willing to spend more than ever before in 2019, it’d still be a shock to see another seismic addition. Despite that report, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Friars won’t completely rule out adding Harper. The Padres have clearly done their due diligence on Harper, so perhaps they’ll continue to lurk on the periphery in case Harper’s view on a shorter-term deal changes.
  • Acee’s column also offers a look at how the Padres came to reach an agreement with Machado. San Diego, according to Acee, hadn’t even expressed legitimate interest, let alone discussed an offer, until mid-January. Their early meetings revealed the asking price to be considerably higher than expected, but, as Acee notes, general manager A.J. Preller’s “creativity and relentlessness” ultimately swayed ownership into approving the expenditure. At this time, Acee adds, there’s no immediate plan to add another starting pitcher to the mix. Friars fans in particular will want to be sure to read the column in its entirety, which contains quotes from several Padres players on the reported agreement.
  • Although Phillies owner John Middleton infamously spoke of spending “stupid” money early in the offseason, the price for Machado apparently reached a point where the team’s baseball operations officials simply weren’t comfortable. “There’s a certain value that we believe a player brings and we were willing to get aggressive on this,” general manager Matt Klentak told Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Daily News. “If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation, and sometimes you have to be willing to walk away.” Klentak confirmed that the Phillies are still interested in Harper but cautioned that the team simply wouldn’t allow itself “to be put into a position where we have to do something at all costs.” There’s no way of knowing whether the Phils objectively value Harper at a higher number than Machado, but agent Scott Boras will likely be aiming to topple Machado’s guarantee and Klentak didn’t speak like someone gearing up for a bidding war.
  • White Sox general manager Rick Hahn expressed “frustration” and “disappointment” after learning of Machado’s deal with the Padres, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Sox met with Machado’s camp Monday and presented an increased offer (as noted above), believing that may put them over the edge. Ultimately, though, it seems as though owner Jerry Reinsdorf knew the point at which he felt he had to walk away. “[The Padres’] ownership group did a great job in trumping everyone else,” said Hahn while also commending Reinsdorf’s “willingness to step up” with what would’ve easily been a franchise-record contract for the ChiSox, who have never signed a player for more than Jose Abreu’s $68MM. Hahn indicated that the White Sox eventually topped out because of a need to “project putting together a total winning roster, and keeping the young players that will ultimately earn into greater dollars themselves.” As for the money earmarked for Machado, Hahn said it would be spent, though not necessarily this offseason (Twitter link via Van Schouwen). It’s worth noting, of course, that next winter’s free-agent market has its own share of high-profile names (e.g. Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Xander Bogaerts, Madison Bumgarner).
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