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Orioles’ Owner Gives Approval To Explore Trades Of Relievers, Smith

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JULY 18: Rosenthal now reports (via Twitter) that Angelos has indeed given Duquette his approval to explore trades involving the team’s top relievers as well as Smith.

JULY 16: As long as Orioles ownership approves, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette has told other teams that he is open to trading three of his top relievers (Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Darren O’Day) as well as outfielder Seth Smith, Ken Rosenthal reports via his Facebook page.

Also noteworthy in Rosenthal’s report is the list of names the O’s apparently aren’t willing to trade.  The club isn’t listening to offers for Manny Machado or Adam Jones, and though Mychal Givens is receiving interest from rival clubs, the O’s also don’t plan on dealing the righty, who is controllable through the 2021 season.

This would indicate that the Orioles aren’t approaching the deadline with an eye towards a full-blown rebuild.  Dealing a controllable player like Givens (who is likely being groomed for a larger role should one of the veteran relievers be dealt) or moving cornerstone players like Machado or Jones would imply that Baltimore wasn’t planning on contending in 2018.  Instead, the team looks to be attempting to free up some payroll space in the form of pricey relief contacts, and move some excess pieces in the bullpen and bench with an eye towards reloading for next season.  With this in mind, Rosenthal opines that Welington Castillo could also be a trade chip, as the catcher can become a free agent this winter if he doesn’t exercise his player option for 2018.

All this trade talk assumes, of course, that Orioles owner Peter Angelos is willing to green-light the proposed deadline moves.  Rosenthal points out that Angelos hasn’t permitted his team to make significant trades of veterans at the deadline since 2000, though the O’s are only on the fringes of contention this year.  The Orioles entered the day tied with the Blue Jays for fourth place in the AL East with a 42-48 record, 8.5 games out of first place and five games out of a wild card berth.

Britton posted one of the best years of any closer in baseball history in 2016, though he has only pitched 13 innings for Baltimore this season due to a pair of forearm strains.  Despite the worrying nature of such injuries, Britton’s track record ensures that he would be a prized commodity at the deadline, with such teams as the Dodgers and Astros already showing some interest.

Britton’s rise to elite closer status has coincided with his arbitration years, as he is playing this season on an $11.4MM salary.  Though his injury woes will probably limit the size of his raise in his fourth and final trip through the arb process this winter, Britton still has another $12MM+ salary coming his way in 2018, and there were whispers all winter that the O’s could move Britton and go with a less-expensive option at closer.

Brach, for instance, is only earning $3.05MM this season and is controlled through the 2018 season.  This contract situation and Brach’s own strong performance this year as Britton’s replacement at closer has put Brach perhaps even in higher demand than Britton.  It probably isn’t likely that both Britton and Brach would be dealt, as the club likely sees one or the other as their closer in 2018.

The veteran O’Day missed some time due to a shoulder strain this year and was hampered by injuries in 2016, though he had continued to post his usual solid numbers when healthy.  O’Day has a 3.77 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 2.79 K/BB rate over 31 frames for Baltimore this year.  O’Day is owed $9MM in both 2018 and 2019 and has roughly $3MM remaining salary for this year.  The veteran also has a partial no-trade clause in his contract that allows him to block deals to seven teams, so O’Day has some control over his destiny if the Orioles do want to trade him.

Smith was acquired in a trade with the Mariners last winter to boost the Orioles’ left-handed hitting outfield depth, and he has a solid .259/.328/.436 slash line through 244 PA.  Trey Mancini has stepped into an everyday corner outfield role, so the O’s could use a platoon of Joey Rickard and Hyun Soo Kim in the other corner spot should Smith be dealt.

Heyman’s Latest: Slow Starters, Dodgers, Braun, O’s, Tigers

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FanRag’s Jon Heyman tackles a number of slow-starting teams in the intro to his weekly notes columns, getting the opinions of rival scouts and executives on the slow starts from the Cardinals, Giants, Blue Jays and Rangers. Heyman spoke to Giants GM Bobby Evans on his club’s issues in left field, with Evans conceding, “We don’t have a true left fielder. We’re going to have to mix and match.” Heyman notes that veteran infielder Aaron Hill is expected to get some looks in left field. San Francisco elected to move on from Angel Pagan this offseason and entered the year with a platoon of Jarrett Parker and Chris Marrero in left field, but Parker will now miss significant time following a broken clavicle. And it appears to be too late to turn back to Pagan, who told El Vocero yesterday that he’s planning to sit out the 2017 season to spend time with his wife and children.

Here are some highlights from Heyman’s National League and American League roundups…

  • There’s “no evidence of any real trade talk” between the Brewers and Dodgers involving Ryan Braun, per Heyman. He notes that the Brewers may feel a slight sense of urgency due to the fact that Braun will achieve 10-and-5 rights on May 24 (thus allowing him full veto power over any trade). The improved production out of Yasiel Puig could make Braun a less appealing target, as Puig himself has the ability to be a dynamic weapon against lefties if he can return to form. Even if Braun does ultimately reach 1o-and-5 status, Heyman notes that the Dodgers are said to be his preferred destination in a trade, so he could very well approve the deal after that point.
  • Also of note to Dodgers fans, Los Angeles showed interest in right-hander Brad Ziegler this offseason and were willing to discuss something in the range of $12MM over two years. Ziegler, instead, signed with the Marlins for two years and a total of $16MM. To this point, he’s yielded just one run with a 6-to-1 K/BB ratio and a ridiculous 81 percent ground-ball rate through his first eight innings.
  • Multiple teams inquired with the Brewers about right-hander Wily Peralta this spring, but Milwaukee clearly didn’t find an offer to its liking. “We’re very comfortable having him as part of our rotation,” GM David Stearns tells Heyman. The 27-year-old Peralta has a 2.65 ERA through his first three starts, though his strong work dates back further than Opening Day. While Peralta’s 2016 numbers look pedestrian at best, he posted a 2.92 ERA through 61 1/3 innings after being recalled from a Triple-A demotion early last August. In his past 13 MLB starts, Peralta has a 2.86 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 51.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s controllable for two seasons beyond the 2017 campaign, and it’s easy to envision him emerging as a trade candidate this summer if he continues to perform anywhere near that level.
  • J.J. Hardy’s lengthy injury history will make the Orioles unlikely to pick up his $14MM club option at season’s end. However, Heyman adds that even if the O’s do move on from Hardy, they’re not likely to displace Manny Machado from third base given his excellence (and, presumably, his comfort level) at the hot corner. Rather, the team figures to shop for a shortstop next offseason. The 2017-18 free agent crop at shortstop figures to be headlined by Zack Cozart, with alternative options including Eduardo Nunez, Alcides Escobar and Danny Espinosa. Baltimore could, of course, turn to the trade market for some shortstop help as well. Ryan Mountcastle is the team’s top-regarded minor league shortstop, but the 20-year-old former first-rounder opened the season in Class-A Advanced and many scouting reports question his ability to remain at short in the long run.
  • The Tigers are planning to be “extra cautious” with right fielder J.D. Martinez as he returns from a foot injury, Heyman writes. However, there’s little chance of the Tigers pursuing him as a free agent this offseason due to the fact that the team still intends to trim down its long-term payroll outlook. Re-signing Martinez, who ranked sixth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings earlier today, could require another sizable commitment of five or more years if Martinez has a typical season at the plate.

AL East Notes: Machado, Price, Barnes, Rasmus

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Manny Machado’s capability to play shortstop could impact the Orioles in both the short- and long-term picture, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The 24-year-old Machado will hit the open market following the 2018 season, and he tells Rosenthal that he still thinks about playing his natural position of shortstop even though he’s spent the bulk of his career at third base (and become one of the best defensive third basemen in the game — if not of all-time). Asked about the thought of playing shortstop on a consistent basis, Machado replies: “I’m not going to lie. It’s always been there. … I played a little bit there (last year). That was fun. I trained this year to play there just in case anything happened.” Machado also acknowledges, though, that he’s experienced great success at third base, rhetorically asking, “So why change?”

As Rosenthal notes, the Orioles hold a $14MM option over J.J. Hardy at season’s end, and the ability to move Machado to short could impact their thinking. (Although the option would vest and become guaranteed if Hardy tallies 600 PAs.) Beyond that, though, Rosenthal wonders if Machado would be enticed by the opportunity to play shortstop on an everyday basis when he reaches free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, whether in Baltimore or elsewhere.

A few more notes pertaining to the AL East…

  • Red Sox left-hander David Price threw a 20-pitch bullpen session today and came away from the workout feeling good, he told reporters (via Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald). The key for the former AL Cy Young winner, however, will be seeing how he feels tomorrow. Price has yet to pitch for the Sox this season after a forearm issue led to a scare during Spring Training and, prior to today, hadn’t thrown off a mound since Feb. 28, Jennings notes. Farrell said that if Price feels strong tomorrow, another mound session would be lined up for Wednesday. There’s still no definitive timeline when it comes to Price’s return, but Jennings notes that he won’t pitch in the Majors until at least May.
  • In a Red Sox bullpen that has quite a bit of uncertainty throughout its ranks, right-hander Matt Barnes has emerged as the primary setup option for closer Craig Kimbrel, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. That could change, potentially, when Tyler Thornburg is ready to come off the disabled list, but Barnes’ early showing and the struggles of many of his teammates have him primed for a big role in the Boston ’pen. ““A guy that’s maybe a little bit more seasoned than some others in some of those big spots, he’s going to be a pivotal guy in our bullpen,” said Sox manager John Farrell to MacPherson. The 26-year-old Barnes averaged 9.6 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 with a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate out of the bullpen last season, and he’s logged a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio through his first 3 2/3 shutout innings in 2017.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Colby Rasmus’ rehab assignment with the Rays’ Class-A Advanced affiliate in Charlotte is still on hold for a few more days, likely pushing the outfielder’s debut back until next week. Rasmus was involved in an outfield collision in Charlotte last Thursday, as Topkin reported, and while he remained in that game, the team is now proceeding rather cautiously. Topkin also suggests that speedster Mallex Smith will likely head to Triple-A Durham once Rasmus is healthy enough to rejoin the Major League roster. Rasmus, who signed a one-year, $5MM contract with Tampa Bay this winter, is recovering from offseason hip surgery.

Olney’s Latest: Machado, Harper, Tigers, Jays, Giants

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Given that Orioles third baseman Manny Machado and Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper are scheduled to reach free agency after the 2018 season, high-payroll teams will spend the next two years deciding the more worthy target, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With that in mind, Olney polled seven evaluators on which potential $400MM player they’d prefer to sign. Six chose Machado, whom the evaluators regard as a more well-rounded player. “Harper gets credit and gets a huge part of his reputation for how far he hits home runs, but they still only count for one run,” one evaluator told Olney. “Machado is an entire field hitter who hits to the situation. He can hammer majestic homers, but can also do other things to help a team win.”

More from Olney:

  • If the Tigers don’t begin the season well, there’s a sense around the majors that they could consider moving the likes of second baseman Ian Kinsler and outfielder J.D. Martinez. Both veterans came up in offseason trade rumors and aren’t under team control for much longer. The 34-year-old Kinsler is controllable for the next two seasons at $21MM, including a $10MM option for 2018. Martinez, 30 in August, will make $11.75MM this year and then become a free agent during the winter. Notably, the slugger suffered a foot injury Saturday and will undergo an MRI on Sunday.
  • The Blue Jays “are said to be” in the market for outfield help, per Olney. Toronto is set in center (Kevin Pillar) and right (Jose Bautista), but left is questionable with Steve Pearce, Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera and Dalton Pompey as its in-house options.  The top free agent outfielder left on the board is Angel Pagan, whom the Jays are reportedly unlikely to sign. They do have interest in free agent utilityman Kelly Johnson, though he’s primarily an infielder.
  • Free agent catcher Derek Norris has a reputation of “sometimes clashing with pitchers,” according to Olney, who notes the 28-year-old will have to overcome that as he searches for his next employer. There are reportedly “about a half-dozen teams” interested in Norris, whom the Nationals released this week after they weren’t able to find a taker in a trade. An acquiring club would have had to take on his $4.2MM salary, of course, whereas signing him should come at a cheaper price.
  • There’s concern in Giants camp regarding the play of center fielder Denard Span, who’s not hitting or, to some evaluators, moving well. The 33-year-old fared decently at the plate in 2016 (.266/.331/.381 in 637 trips); however, he’s coming off back-to-back subpar campaigns in the field, during which he combined for minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-13 Ultimate Zone Rating. The Giants owe Span $22MM over the next three years, including a $4MM buyout for 2019.

Orioles Notes: Britton, Machado, Worley, Brach, Joseph

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Here’s the latest from the Orioles’ FanFest event…

  • Zach Britton and the Orioles haven’t been discussing an extension, though the ace closer tells MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli (Twitter link) and other reporters that there is mutual interest between the two sides on working out a new deal.  Britton and the O’s avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $11.4MM contract for 2017, and Britton has one more arb year left before entering free agency.
  • There also haven’t been any extension talks between Manny Machado and the O’s, the star third baseman told reporters, including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.  Machado reiterated that he hopes to remain with the Orioles and he understands if the club is focusing on other priorities right now rather than open talks.  Needless to say, negotiating a Machado extension will be a major task given the huge amount of years and dollars (ten years and $300MM is a ballpark figure) it would take to prevent Machado from hitting free agency at age 26 following the 2018 season.
  • The Orioles have made a contract offer to right-hander Vance Worley, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told reporters (including the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli).  Worley was projected to earn $3.3MM in arbitration this winter and was non-tendered by the O’s last month.  The righty posted a 3.53 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 48.1% grounder rate over 86 2/3 innings for Baltimore last season and has value as a long reliever and spot starter, even if the Orioles weren’t keen on meeting his projected price tag.
  • Duquette also stated (to Eduardo A. Encina and other media) that the Orioles are planning to go to hearings to decide their three unsettled arbitration cases with Kevin Gausman, Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph.  Brach and Joseph discussed their takes on the hearing process with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, with Brach also talking about his name being mentioned in offseason trade rumors.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Britton, Machado, Tillman

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1:48pm: The Orioles and Tillman have also avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.05MM deal, tweets Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

12:20pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that Manny Machado also avoided arb with an $11.5MM deal (Twitter link). That checks in $300K north of his projection from Swartz.

11:11am: The Orioles and superstar closer Zach Britton have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a hefty $11.4MM salary for the 2017 season, reports Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client’s salary is an exact match with the $11.4MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Britton will be arb-eligible once more next winter before becoming a free agent after the 2018 season.

Britton, 29, is coming off one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in history. One of the best relievers in baseball (and arguably the best), Britton led the American League in saves with 47 and posted a comically low 0.54 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 67 innings of work. He also posted an outrageous 80 percent ground-ball rate that is the highest mark in Major League history of any qualified starter or reliever dating back to 2002 when the stat was first tracked.

As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, Britton was one of nine Orioles players that’s eligible for arbitration. The team has six players remaining, in the form of Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Brad Brach, Jonathan Schoop, Caleb Joseph and T.J. McFarland.

Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.

Manny Machado

Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.

Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.

With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.

Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.

It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Orioles Notes: Machado, Wieters, Rasmus, Free Agents

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In his latest column, ESPN’s Buster Olney argues that the Orioles need to begin preparing for the possibility of trading superstar third baseman Manny Machado (Insider subscription required and highly recommended). Olney is careful to report that sources in the organization tell him no such talks have taken place, but he also lays out a compelling argument for dealing Machado this coming summer if the O’s aren’t in contention. Machado’s $11.2MM arbitration projection will take his career earnings north of $20MM, so he can afford to wait for free agency two years from now, financially speaking. And the Orioles have what is generally regarded as one of the game’s weaker farm systems, so moving Machado and other top-tier MLB assets (i.e. Zach Britton, Adam Jones) could net GM Dan Duquette the type of prospect bounty that would make for an accelerated rebuilding process.

O’s fans undoubtedly would prefer to see Machado extended, but I agree with Olney’s assessment that the window for that has likely closed. At this juncture, it’s hard to envision Machado signing anything less than a record-setting contract. He’s a better all-around player than Giancarlo Stanton, whose 13-year, $325MM contract is the current benchmark. Hitting the open market at age 26, Machado should shatter Stanton’s record contract barring some form of devastating injury. Of course, if Baltimore is in contention in 2017, then it’s all a moot point for a bit longer, as there’s no way the Orioles would (nor should they) consider dealing Machado and others if a potential postseason berth is in the cards.

A few more notes on the Orioles…

  • Agent Scott Boras reached out to Orioles owner Peter Angelos one last time to try to get the O’s back into the Matt Wieters bidding before Baltimore signed Welington Castillo, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. The Orioles were simply far more comfortable committing a modest $6MM salary in 2017 (and possibly $7MM in 2018) to Castillo than they were with considering the price levels that Boras is seeking for Wieters. Kubatko notes that Wieters’ situation may not be resolved before the calendar flips to 2017.
  • Within that same piece, Kubatko reports that Colby Rasmus’ agents have reached out to the Orioles, but the team considers his current asking price to be too high. If the O’s do end up with Rasmus, a deal would have to be reached closer to Spring Training once his asking price drops a bit further. Rasmus struggled to a .206/.286/.355 batting line last year but played through myriad physical issues over the course of the season. Rasmus had a cyst surgically removed from his ear this past summer — an issue that very likely could’ve impacted his balance and all-around skill set — and underwent surgeries to repair his hip and a sports hernia following the 2016 season. A healthier Rasmus could be a nice rebound candidate, though the O’s likely aren’t alone in expressing some trepidation about committing a significant guarantee to a player coming off Rasmus’ recent injuries.
  • Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that the O’s are still looking for a defensive upgrade in the corner outfield and depth in the bullpen, but he casts some doubt on the team’s ability to squeeze in another acquisition prior to the holidays. The team’s talks with Mark Trumbo have been lagging a bit, and while the O’s haven’t pivoted to similar players like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Carter yet, Encina adds that they’ll eventually go that route if talks with Trumbo’s camp don’t intensify.

Dan Duquette On Trumbo, Machado, Britton

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The Orioles have “made a couple offers to” free agent slugger Mark Trumbo, Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told reporters (including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), though despite ongoing talks, an agreement has yet to be reached.  “We’ve had several conversations with Mark Trumbo, but we haven’t been able to cinch a deal with him….We’ve had a dialogue going with them for several weeks,” Duquette said.

Though there was mutual interest in a continued relationship between the two sides prior to the end of the season, there hasn’t been much news about Trumbo and Orioles until now.  Duquette said during the GM Meetings that the club was looking to prioritize defense and add a left-handed hitting outfielder, neither of which describe what Trumbo brings to the table. Duquette cited outfield defense again today, though Trumbo could also fill Baltimore’s hole at designated hitter.  As I noted in my free agent profile of Trumbo, his value could greatly improve if a team uses him in a first base/DH role rather than as a corner outfielder.

Right field is the specific need for the O’s, as Duquette said Hyun Soo Kim and Joey Rickard could handle left field in a platoon and the team hasn’t put much thought into moving Chris Davis from first base into right.  As for other internal options, Duquette also cited youngster Trey Mancini as having the hitting potential to possibly handle regular DH duty.

Trumbo has received some interest from the Rockies this winter, though Colorado would have to give up a hefty draft pick price (the 11th overall selection in next year’s draft) to sign Trumbo, who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer.  That same QO status is a consideration for the O’s as well as they explore re-signing Trumbo, Duquette noted, as is the changing nature of the qualifying offer system in future years under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Aside from Trumbo, Duquette also discussed such topics as the team’s needs in right field, catcher (either as a starter or platoon partner with Caleb Joseph) and the potential use of the upcoming Rule 5 draft to procure more young talent.

Duquette also denied a rumor about an extension between Manny Machado and the Orioles, saying that the two sides hadn’t had any talks.  Most teams wait until after the bulk of the offseason work is complete before entering into extension negotiations, so we might not hear about anything with Machado until Spring Training at the earliest.  The superstar third baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn $11.2MM in arbitration next season, and the O’s control Machado through the 2018 campaign.  With Machado hitting the open market at age 26, the sky is the limit for the size of a potential extension — Baltimore would likely require something north of a $250MM guarantee.

In a radio appearance with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), the executive VP also commented on the attention being drawn by closer Zach Britton.  “There’s a lot of interest in Zach Britton. Personally, I like Zach Britton on our club, but there are teams interested,” Duquette said.  Britton is also due for a hefty arbitration payday ($11.4MM) in the wake of his excellent 2016 season, and there has been speculation that the O’s could sell high on Britton now given the large demand for relief pitching this offseason.  One would think it would take a pretty significant offer to pry Britton out of Baltimore, as Duquette has said both here and in prior interviews that he wants to keep the closer.

Dan Duquette On Machado, Tillman, Schoop, Britton Extension Talks

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In the Orioles’ season-ending press conference with media (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) earlier this week, baseball operations executive VP Dan Duquette commented on the possibility of the club exploring extensions with several players, saying “I’m sure we’ll have time to take a look at that” during the offseason.

“All of those players have done a great job for us,” Duquette said, referring to Manny Machado, Chris Tillman and Jonathan Schoop.  “We have explored extensions in the past, in fact a couple times each, with Tillman and Machado. We haven’t approached Jonathan Schoop on a long-term basis yet, but I’m sure we’ll have time to do that when it’s appropriate.”

As Duquette noted, this isn’t the first time the O’s have looked into extending its superstar third baseman or its staff ace.  FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported in June that Machado and the Orioles had come close to a seven-year extension at some point in recent years, while the club negotiated with Tillman about a long-term deal prior to the 2015 season.

A Machado extension, of course, would almost certainly be one of the largest deals in baseball history.  Machado has generated more fWAR than all but three other players in baseball over the last two seasons, thanks to his combination of both elite third base defense and outstanding hitting.  At just 24 years of age, Machado will only be 26 when he hits free agency after the 2018 season, so the Orioles would need to pay well in excess of $200MM in order to lock up the young star into his free agent seasons.  Extending Machado would break new financial ground for the O’s, though Baltimore has shown it is willing to spend big to extend or retain key position players like Adam Jones or Chris Davis.

Tillman is the most immediate concern since he can hit the open market after the 2017 season, though his price tag is less clear.  He rebounded from a disappointing 2015 season to post a 3.77 ERA, 2.12 K/BB rate and 7.3 K/9 over 172 innings this year, though as per advanced metrics, there actually wasn’t much of a gap between the righty’s performance over the last two years.  Tillman has produced between 1.8 and 2.4 fWAR in each of the last four seasons and averaged 190 innings per year in that span, though the Orioles are notoriously cautious (some could say over-cautious) when it comes to committing to pitchers in long-term deals.  It could be that the Orioles would be more comfortable spending money on a pitcher they’re already quite familiar with, especially given that the club is already in such need of rotation help.

Schoop will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, so the Orioles aren’t necessarily in any rush to extend the second baseman.  Schoop, who turns 25 next week, hit a career-high 25 homers but was a below-average (97 wRC+) offensive performer overall thanks to a .267/.298/.454 slash line over 647 plate appearances.  Between Schoop’s high strikeout totals and lack of OBP, there could still be some question if he is indeed a long-term piece for the Orioles, though obviously there’s still room for growth for such a young player.

Duquette was also asked about the possibility of extending star closer Zach Britton, and Duquette merely responded that Britton is still two years away from free agency.  Extending Britton now would be the definition of a buy-high move given that he is coming off one of the best seasons from any closer in baseball history, though an extension would also give Baltimore some cost certainty over Britton’s rising price tag.  He is due a major raise from his 2016 salary of $6.75MM,  and he still has two arb years left thanks to his Super Two designation.  Committing huge dollars to any reliever can be a roll of the dice, so the Orioles could be willing to simply go year-to-year with Britton.

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