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Marcus Stroman

Padres Considering Marcus Stroman

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Veteran starting pitching will be a focus of the Padres’ offseason, and the team appears prepared to shop in the high end of the free agent market.  Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Marcus Stroman has been “mentioned” as part of the Padres’ “preliminary deliberations” about targets this winter.

To be clear, it would be surprising if Stroman wasn’t at least on the radar for any pitching-needy team, and it is too early in the Padres’ offseason to tell if these in-house deliberations will result in concrete interest.  That said, Stroman would be a logical upgrade for a San Diego team looking to bolster its pitching corps.

On paper, the Padres have a full rotation of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, and (returning from Tommy John surgery) Mike Clevinger, plus Dinelson Lamet and Ryan Weathers as further depth and Adrian Morejon as a midseason reinforcement once he completes his own TJ rehab.  However, given all the injury concerns and lack of overall performance from this group down the stretch, it isn’t surprising that San Diego’s front office is looking for reinforcements.  Stroman has had his share of injuries, though for the most part has been a durable arm, tossing at least 179 innings in four of his last five seasons.

After opting out of the 2020 season and then accepting the Mets’ qualifying offer for 2021, Stroman delivered one of the best campaigns of his seven-year career.  Stroman posted a 3.02 ERA/3.95 SIERA over 179 IP with a 50.8% grounder rate and a 5.9% walk rate that was both well above league average and Stroman’s best walk rate since his 2014 rookie season.  The right-hander’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a career best, if still a below average figure overall, though a very strong 31.6% chase rate is indication that Stroman left his share of batters guessing.

Stroman turns 31 in May, but between his track record and his 2021 success, it seems quite likely that he’ll land at least a four-year contract this winter, and maybe as many as five years.  (His market is also helped by the fact that he is ineligible for another QO.)  Signing Stroman would represent yet another major contract on the Padres’ books, and between the pre-existing commitments and a big arbitration class, the Padres might not have a ton of room to operate underneath the next Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

Both Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource calculate that the Padres managed to stay under the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, though the margin is close enough that we’ll have to wait for the official league accounting to be certain.  Then again, Padres ownership has indicated a willingness to pay the tax under the right circumstances, and it is possible the current CBT system is overhauled in collective bargaining talks.  The club could also explore moving some other salary to free up payroll and tax space, such as how the Padres has looked into trading the likes of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers in recent years.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Mets, Stroman, Padres, Cruz

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The Phillies are interested in Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin of the Cubs, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Phillies’ scouts are present at Wrigley Field today. While it may seem counterintuitive, having so many potential trade targets on one team can muddy the trade waters, so we’ll see if the Phillies and Cubs can narrow their focus to get a deal done here in the coming week. Elsewhere…

  • The Mets and Marcus Stroman have not had any discussions about a possible contract extension, per Mike Ruiz of Newsday. Stroman has played a massive role in the Mets’ ascent to the top of the NL East this season, tossing 111 1/3 innings with a 2.59 ERA/3.50 FIP. He has ranked among the top-30 starters in the game by fWAR, innings pitched, ERA, FIP, groundball rate, and walk rate. He’s heading towards free agency without a qualifying offer attached entering his age-31 season.
  • Before the Rays pulled the trigger on the deal for Nelson Cruz, the Padres made a significant push to acquire the slugger, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Cruz has a history of taking grounders at first and second base, and though it’s certainly hard to imagine a successful plan to convert the 41-year-old DH into an infielder, the Padres were willing to give it a shot in order to have his bat on the bench. What’s more, they weren’t the only National League team in pursuit, per Rosenthal.

Marcus Stroman Optimistic He Can Make His Next Start

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June 23, 3:08 pm: Stroman is still dealing with soreness in his hip, but he’s hopeful he’ll be able to make his next start, manager Luis Rojas tells reporters (including Thosar).

June 23, 11:15 am: Stroman underwent an MRI today, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the imaging came back clean. There’s no structural damage for Stroman, which should rule out a lengthy absence. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweets that Stroman is day-to-day.

June 22: Mets right-hander Marcus Stroman left this evening’s start against the Braves in the second inning after a visit from the trainer. The club later announced he’s dealing with left hip soreness. Yennsy Díaz came on in relief to replace him.

There’s no indication at this point that his departure was anything more than precautionary, but it’s nevertheless a concerning development. Given the current state of their rotation, the Mets can scarcely afford a lengthy absence from Stroman. Jacob deGrom has been otherworldly, and Taijuan Walker has been very good in his own right. Even before Stroman’s departure, though, there was plenty of uncertainty at the back of the rotation. David Peterson has struggled to a 5.31 ERA, and the final spot is already a question mark. Joey Lucchesi will undergo Tommy John surgery this week, with veteran Jerad Eickhoff and prospect Thomas Szapucki among the potential replacements. Tylor Megill, who has performed well over three starts at Triple-A Syracuse, is among the players under consideration for a promotion, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (Twitter link).

At 37-30, the Mets are leading the National League East by four games. The front office looks likely to be on the hunt for starting pitching in the coming weeks, and that urgency will only be heightened if Stroman requires an IL stint. It’s also a critical year for Stroman, who is scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end after accepting an $18.9MM qualifying offer last winter. To this point, his decision to bet on himself has looked wise, as Stroman has tossed 85 2/3 innings of 2.31 ERA/3.55 FIP ball.

Mets Owner Steve Cohen Discusses Luxury Tax, deGrom, Stroman

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Mets owner Steve Cohen met with reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) yesterday to discuss the team’s outlook in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Most notably, Cohen was asked whether he’d be willing to sign off on a midseason acquisition that pushes the team’s competitive balance tax outlay north of the first threshold of $210MM.

“It’s something to think about because there is a price to pay if you go over for the following year or the year after,” Cohen said. “I am not going to go over for a million or two million. That’s stupid, so if you are going to do it, you are going to do it, so we’ll see what’s available.”

Cohen is alluding to the escalating penalties for teams that surpass the threshold in consecutive seasons. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a club that exceeds the lowest threshold for the first time is subject to a 20% tax on the overage. Exceeding that threshold for a second consecutive year subjects the team to a 30% tax on the overage, while the club would pay a 50% tax on excess expenditures for a third consecutive season (and beyond) above that mark.

To calculate a team’s CBT ledger, the league takes the sum of the average annual values of each contract on the books in a season- not the actual payroll in any given year. For the Mets, that figure comes in just under $197MM in 2021, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. (Cot’s pegs their actual payroll at approximately $195.4MM). If Cohen is unwilling to go beyond the first threshold, that’d leave New York a little more than $13MM in CBT space for midseason upgrades.

Cohen didn’t explicitly state he’d be unwilling to push the team’s CBT ledger north of $210MM. Rather, he implied that it’d take one (or more) marquee additions for him to deem that worthwhile, based on the belief that the cost of higher potential penalties in future seasons would outweigh the value of making more marginal upgrades. Of course, that assumes the current luxury tax system will remain in the next CBA, which is up for negotiation this winter. The Mets did not exceed the threshold last season under the previous ownership group, so they’d be subject to the first-time payor penalty if they were to do so this year.

New York’s owner also addressed the contractual status of starters Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. Cohen confirmed the club engaged in preliminary extension discussions with deGrom in Spring Training. Those were never expected to persist into the summer, though, and Cohen indeed shot down the possibility of in-season negotiations. “I’m focused on this year,” he said. “I don’t think it’s the right moment (for extension talks). We’re focused on this year, so obviously it’s something we’re thinking about. We love Jacob.” deGrom is under contract through 2024, but his deal affords him the opportunity to opt out at the end of next season.

Cohen also suggested it was unlikely the Mets would discuss an extension with Stroman during the year. The 30-year-old returned to Queens on an $18.9MM qualifying offer over the winter, and he’s since worked to a stellar 2.34 ERA/3.66 SIERA across 84 2/3 innings. Stroman will hit free agency again next offseason, and the CBA prevents the Mets from tagging with a QO this time around.

Mets GM: “No Movement” In Any Recent Extension Talks

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Much of the discussion about the Mets in Spring Training revolved around the team’s extension negotiations with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto. There was more urgency to work out a deal with Lindor, since the star shortstop had set an Opening Day deadline to conclude talks. Conforto, on the other hand, left open the possibility of in-season discourse.

The Mets and Lindor came to terms on a ten-year, $341MM deal just hours before the regular season began. Those negotiations seemed to keep Conforto’s situation on the back burner, as the Mets and the outfielder’s representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly did not exchange dollar figures during the spring.

Just over a month later, it doesn’t seem the parties have moved any closer to an agreement. Mets acting general manager Zack Scott told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News) that “there’s been no movement on anything contract wise for anyone” on the roster recently. That’s most notable regarding Conforto, although Scott’s statement was broad enough to suggest there’s nothing currently developing with other impending free agents Marcus Stroman or Noah Syndergaard either.

That there’s no movement on an extension in early May is not to say the Mets won’t be able to keep one or more of those players long-term. Scott didn’t suggest the Mets or any of the players were averse to future negotiations. There’s obviously still plenty of time in the season to discussion extensions with any or all of that group. Even if the players do reach the open market, nothing prevents the Mets from winning the free agent sweepstakes, just as the division-rival Phillies brought back J.T. Realmuto in January.

Conforto remains the most prominent of the Mets’ impending free agents. The 28-year-old outfielder placed seventh on MLBTR’s most recent free agent power rankings. Conforto got off to a slow start but has turned things around over the past few weeks, resulting in an overall .226/.368/.355 line over his first 114 plate appearances. That’s a step back from the cumulative .261/.365/.478 (128 wRC+) mark he compiled from 2018-20, but there’s reason to believe his bottom line numbers will improve as the season progresses.

Despite the low batting average, Conforto’s putting the bat on the ball more than ever. His 79.9% contact rate would be a career-best mark and is nearly five points higher than the league average. Meanwhile, Conforto’s swinging strike rate is at a career-low 8.5% and his plate discipline has remained strong, as evidenced by a 14.9% walk rate. His power production is down from recent seasons, but Statcast metrics suggest he’s still barreling balls at an above-average clip and making hard contact at a rate similar to past seasons. Leaguewide power production tends to improve as the year progresses and the weather gets warmer, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Conforto find some more extra-base authority in the coming weeks and months.

Stroman and Syndergaard, meanwhile, have the potential to be among the top free agent starters available. The former is again scheduled to reach the market after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer last winter. He’s off to a very strong start, working to a 2.10 ERA/3,57 SIERA over his first 34 1/3 innings. Stroman has never gotten huge strikeout totals, but he’s again finding plenty of success by throwing strikes (5.1% walk rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (55.1% grounder rate). Syndergaard is still on track to return from his March 2020 Tommy John surgery in June, giving him a couple months down the stretch to demonstrate he’s back to peak form.

East Notes: Mets, Orioles, Nationals

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Mets President Sandy Alderson said that he expects extension talks with Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto to begin soon, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Both players are scheduled for free agency after the 2021 season. Lindor, for his part, has made clear that he will not negotiate an extension beyond opening day, so the window is now for Alderson and the Mets. Alderson also put forth Noah Syndergaard’s name as a potential extension candidate as well, notes Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Syndergaard, of course, is on the way back from Tommy John surgery and won’t likely appear until mid-season, but he will also be a free agent at year’s end. Extending those three would certainly cost a chunk of change, but the Mets do have roughly $100MM coming off their payroll next offseason. Interestingly, Marcus Stroman was not mentioned as an extension candidate. His $18.9MM salary could help provide the necessary raises next season for Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard. While we’re here, let’s check in with some other clubs in the East…

  • Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins is giving up switch-hitting to bat lefty full-time, writes Rich Dubroff of Baltimorebaseball.com. After a horrendous 2019, Mullins bounced back somewhat in 2020, doing enough to stay on the Major League roster to appear in 48 games and 153 plate appearances with a palatable .271/.315/.407 slash line. Mullins is trying to make the Orioles roster as a fourth outfielder, though there are certainly more at-bats available if he proves capable. Giving up his right-handed swing could force him into a more straight platoon, but he hasn’t been helped by his work on the short side of that split anyhow. For his career, Mullins has hit just .146 as a right-hander with a 26 wRC+ (versus 90 wRC+ as a lefty). The split was even more pronounced last season when he earned a 118 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter versus 34 wRC+ from the right side. If nothing else, Mullins should be able to simplify his routine by focusing on one swing.
  • Erick Fedde may have stumbled upon a solution to his wandering fastball command, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In his first start of the spring, Fedde turned to his cutter, a pitch that has long eluded him as he has tried to establish himself as a Major League pitcher. Fedde’s cutter did not help his cause in either 2018 or 2020, per Fangraphs pitch values, though in 2019 it was his best offering. Fedde is competing for the Nats fifth starter job, though he’s not likely to win the job out of camp. With one option remaining, the Nationals have more roster flexibility with Fedde than with his competitors Joe Ross and Austin Voth. For Fedde to stick long-term, he probably needs both his sinking fastball and his cutter to work with more consistency.

Marcus Stroman Accepts Qualifying Offer

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Marcus Stroman has announced on Twitter that he will accept the Mets’ qualifying offer. Metsmerized first reported that he planned to do so (Twitter link). By accepting, Stroman will return to Queens on a one-year deal worth $18.9MM.

Marcus Stroman | Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Stroman indicated that new owner Steve Cohen’s passion and commitment to winning played a role in his decision, writing: “After watching the presser, I’m beyond excited to play for you sir. I could feel the excitement and passion you’re going to bring daily. Let’s go be great!”

Stroman’s decision to accept the qualifying offer removes arguably the No. 2 free-agent starting pitcher from the market this winter. It’s of note that he’ll accept his QO as well, given that he and fellow QO recipient Kevin Gausman are both represented by agent Brodie Scoffield of Klutch Sports. Every pitcher is different, of course, and Scoffield has had the past 10 days to explore the different markets for both pitchers, but it still could offer a portent of what lies ahead for Gausman.

For the Mets, Stroman’s decision takes an immediate bite out of their 2021 payroll, but Stroman at one year and $18.9MM nonetheless represents a solid value for a club expecting to increase spending under its new owner. With Noah Syndergaard on the mend from Tommy John surgery and Steven Matz looking like a non-tender candidate, the Mets were thin on options beyond ace Jacob deGrom and impressive rookie David Peterson.

Stroman now gives the Mets a solid mid-rotation option with a strong track record to slot into the second or third spot in that rotation. He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to both a calf injury and an eventual season opt-out, but the longtime Blue Jays hurler has fared well in a hitter-friendly home park and division for the majority of his career.

From 2014-19, Stroman put together a 3.76 ERA and 3.64 FIP with averages of 7.4 strikeouts, 2.6 walks and 0.83 home runs per nine innings pitched. He’s one of the game’s foremost ground-ball pitchers, inducing grounders on 56.6 percent of balls put in play against him, which helps him to limit the long ball but is also cause for some concern given the Mets’ poor infield defense. Of course, returning president Sandy Alderson and whoever he hires to fill out his front office will have ample opportunity to put together a stronger defensive unit this winter should they choose.

Stroman joins deGrom ($33.5MM), Robinson Cano ($24MM), Jeurys Familia ($11MM), Dellin Betances ($6.8MM) and Brad Brach ($2.075MM) as the sixth player on a guaranteed contract currently on the books for the Mets. (The Mariners are paying $3.75MM of that Cano money, and $13.5MM of deGrom’s salary is deferred — although he’s also owed $10MM of a deferred signing bonus this coming January.)

Add in a notable arbitration class headlined by Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis among many others, and the Mets’ commitments could quickly jump north of $140MM. Still, that’s a pretty tepid number for a club whose owner just proclaimed: “…this is a major market team and it should have a budget commensurate with that.”

Cohen naturally added some caution, noting that his Mets will not spend “like drunken sailors,” but it’s clear that even with Stroman on board at a relatively premium rate, the Mets have plenty of room in the budget to continue adding pieces. That becomes all the more if Matz and other borderline arbitration candidates are cut loose, as is widely expected. Most in the industry expect the Mets to be in the mix for the market’s top free agent, with Citi Field being an oft-speculated landing spot for J.T. Realmuto and George Springer alike.

DJ LeMahieu To Reject Qualifying Offer

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As expected, DJ LeMahieu plans on rejecting the $18.9MM qualifying offer and testing the open market, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The deadline to make a decision is tomorrow at 5 ET.

Given that LeMahieu posted and MVP-type season in 2020, it’s no surprise that he’ll head to the open market seeking a multi-year deal. The two-time batting champ has now won a batting title in each league, and he’s primed to cash in for more than the two-years, $24MM that he made last time he was a free agent. The Yankees certainly got their money’s worth over the past two seasons, as LeMahieu slashed .336/.386/.536 with 36 home runs over 871 plate appearances.

Despite the expected for a depressed free agent market, LeMahieu figures to be one of the rare players who will be able to transcend the coronavirus-driven downturn. The 32-year-old not only brings a top-of-the-line bat, but he’s a versatile defensive player who would fit on most any roster. That he happens to get rave reviews for his character and clubhouse presence is only icing on the cake.

As for the rest of this year’s qualifying offer crop, MLB Insider Jon Heyman suggested on his Big Time Baseball podcast that Kevin Gausman is the only relative sure thing to accept his offer from the Giants. Heyman couldn’t quite decide on Marcus Stroman, though he at least thinks there’s a possibility that Stroman would accept. That seems unlikely, given his position as perhaps the top starting pitcher on the market, but a decision will be made by tomorrow evening.

Stroman: “No Amount Of Money” Would Convince Him To Play For La Russa

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The White Sox’ decision to hire Tony La Russa as their new skipper was widely panned from the get-go, and last night’s revelation that the team knew he’d been charged with a second DUI prior to making the hire has only enhanced criticism. The La Russa hire, however, is now generating a negative reaction beyond fans and pundits.

After The Athletic’s Keith Law further criticized the White Sox last night on Twitter in light of the newest details, free-agent righty Marcus Stroman replied to call the decision “baffling on all measures.” Asked by a follower what type of contract it would take for Stroman to sign to play under La Russa, the pitcher replied: “No amount of money honestly. Peace of mind is always priority.”

Much has been made of whether La Russa will be able to connect with a younger generation of players, particularly in light of his vocal 2016 stance against Colin Kaepernick’s protests in the National Football League. La Russa seemed to double down on those comments earlier this year, fueling questions about how he’d be received by current White Sox players. Tim Anderson, who sits on the board of the Players Alliance, spoke of keeping an open mind but noted that although more than a week had elapsed since the hiring was announced, La Russa had yet to contact him.

The White Sox surely knew there’d be pushback against the initial La Russa decision — particularly considering they knew about the latest DUI that had yet to become public — but it’s unlikely they’d have anticipated such public rejection from a prominent free agent like Stroman. Still, Stroman didn’t mince his words, and it stands to reason that there are other free agents and other players who hold similar opinions (even if they don’t vocalize them).

A White Sox official told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last night that La Russa would not lose his job and in fact wasn’t even in line to face any discipline from the organization, although Stroman’s comments only figure to place further pressure for some kind of action on owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

It’s become increasingly clear, after all, that the decision to hire La Russa came solely from Reinsdorf and was not well-received elsewhere in the organization. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Reinsdorf turned the “La Russa Express into a runaway train,” adding that White Sox executives were “unable to stop their owner from bringing his longtime friend back into the organization.”

Latest On Marcus Stroman

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Mets right-hander Marcus Stroman opted out of pitching in 2020 because of concerns over COVID-19, but that shouldn’t stop the free agent from securing a big payday during the offseason. The Mets have already issued him a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM for next season, though Stroman could turn that down and test the open market. Indeed, he’s “more likely” than not to reject the QO, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.

[RELATED: MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions]

This isn’t necessarily a surprise for Stroman, who may be the top starter on the free-agent market after Trevor Bauer. The 29-year-old Stroman has been a quality No. 2/3 type throughout his career, which began in 2014 and has included 849 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP pitching with 7.36 K/9, 2.59 BB/9 and a 58.6 percent groundball rate.

Stroman has posted 200-inning seasons on two occasions, and when he last pitched, he racked up 184 1/3 frames. That type of durability would  be welcome for the Mets or any other team looking for a starter capable of racking up a lot of frames and performing well. Just about every club is looking for a hurler like Stroman for its rotation, meaning he should rake in quite a bit of money in free agency.

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