Remaining Needs: NL East
Quite a few of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have already signed, though there are still a host of players available on the open market. We’ve seen somewhat less action on the trade market, which still features a number of stars and other useful targets.
Those links provide lots of info on the supply side. But what about demand? We’ll run through each division to identify the biggest-remaining needs of each team.
Atlanta Braves [Offseason Outlook]
As they did last time around, the Braves sprinted out of the gates to address multiple key needs. But the club’s biggest question entering the winter — what to do about the departure of star third baseman Josh Donaldson — remains unanswered. It’s a good roster as-is, but the lineup would look a whole lot better with another big bat in the middle of it. If Donaldson can’t be retained, the Braves could look to the trade market at third base or pursue one of the remaining corner outfielders and re-shuffle their internal deck accordingly. The club seems quite settled otherwise but could still explore opportunistic rotation additions.
Miami Marlins [Offseason Outlook]
The Fish have spent the winter plugging in one-year veterans and jettisoning unwanted relievers. The idea was to create a mix that will improve the results a bit in the near term while simultaneously aiding the development of and avoiding undue pressure on young players. Much of that work is already done, but the team is reportedly still looking to add a power-hitting corner outfielder who’d supplement (or supplant?) recent minor-league signee Matt Kemp. Perusing the roster, it seems there’s also room to pick up a veteran pitcher or two to join the bullpen or perhaps the rotation. That’d become a clear priority in the event of a trade involving Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, or some other pitcher. Presumably, the club will continue to explore trade opportunities involving those and other players while keeping an eye on the waiver wire.
New York Mets [Offseason Outlook]
Aided by a renegotiation of the Yoenis Cespedes contract, the Mets have placed a series of expensive (a combined $25MM+) single-season bets on high-variance veteran pitchers. Having picked up two new starting-capable hurlers, a pair of bullpen pieces, and a part-time center fielder in Jake Marisnick, the New York org has already ticked the boxes it needed to.
So … why doesn’t it feel like GM Brodie Van Wagenen is finished? With a forthcoming ownership transition underscoring the need to win now, the club’s top baseball exec can’t afford to leave any stones unturned in his sophomore offseason. Installing a top-flight center fielder — Starling Marte looks like the best bet — would be at the top of the list, but the club can also explore blockbuster scenarios at other positions. It’s possible to imagine further improvements to the bench and bullpen mix, too. The Mets will be most keen to utilize blocked first baseman Dominic Smith as a trade chip — whether to bring back prospects, shed the Jed Lowrie contract, or deliver a different MLB piece — but younger big leaguers J.D. Davis and Steven Matz could also conceivably be dangled.
Philadelphia Phillies [Offseason Outlook]
The Phils landed two of MLBTR’s top dozen free agents, and they did so for lesser commitments than were necessary to secure quite a few other top players. That’s a nice start, but hardly sufficient to stand out from the other three contending teams in this division. Improving the bullpen remains an unfulfilled priority. While the rotation no longer stands out as a problem, it’s susceptible of being bettered. And the position-player mix doesn’t feel quite finished. The Phillies could choose to utilize Adam Haseley in center field and Scott Kingery at third base. But the lineup would look better with a newly installed regular for at least one of those positions, freeing Kingery to function as a super-sub and reducing the team’s reliance upon the still-unproven Haseley. It’s a tough scene in free agency unless the club reimposes itself in the market for Josh Donaldson. Creative trade exploration seems advisable. The Phils also still must figure out what to do with Odubel Herrera, who’ll be returning from a suspension.
Washington Nationals [Offseason Outlook]
Having finally completed a summit attempt, the Nats face new challenges in a repeat bid. Not unlike the Braves and Phillies, the D.C. roster would look much better with Josh Donaldson added in at the hot corner. If they miss on Donaldson, the Nats could be forced into some difficult and high-stakes trade talks. There’s an opening at second base as well — especially if the club intends to utilize the recently re-signed Howie Kendrick at first base, which is partially dependent upon its decision with regard to Ryan Zimmerman — which creates both need and opportunity.
Youngster Carter Kieboom could be cast into a big role, but the organization probably prefers to see him force his way up rather than relying on him out of the gates. It’s possible to imagine the addition of multiple veteran infielders from a large remaining pool, with a plan to mix and match and adapt over the course of the season. Any of the team’s internally developed reserve players could be supplanted over the next few months. Ditto the holdover fifth-starter and middle-relief options. Another rotation piece (if only for camp competition) and one or more relievers (preferably including a legit setup option) also remain on the list of needs for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, who’s overseeing a huge amount of roster turnover while trying to recover from a (literal and figurative) championship hangover.
Marlins Sign Francisco Cervelli
10:07am: The Marlins and Cervelli are in agreement on a one-year deal worth $2MM, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The contract is pending a physical.
9:40am: The Marlins are “making progress” on a one-year contract with free-agent catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (via Twitter). Frisaro first linked to the two parties earlier this month, pointing out that early in his career, Cervelli was a teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter with the Yankees. Cervelli is represented by Wasserman.
Miami will again deploy 26-year-old Jorge Alfaro as its primary backstop in 2020, but Cervelli would bring a veteran backup to help guide the still-developing Alfaro. Although injuries — primarily concussions — have ravaged Cervelli’s career over the past several seasons, he’s still a 12-year veteran who, at his peak, was one of the top defensive catchers in all of baseball.
This past season, the 33-year-old Cervelli was limited to 48 games and 160 plate appearances between the Pirates and the Braves, during which time he hit just .213/.302/.348. But he’s only one season removed from a much stronger .259/.378/.431 batting line and a career-high 12 home runs in 404 plate appearances. Drawing walks (career 10.3 percent) and avoiding strikeouts (19.2 percent) have always been a part of Cervelli’s game, so if he’s healthy he should be a solid source of on-base percentage who regularly puts the ball in play.
Defensively, Cervelli might not be the standout he once was, but he nonetheless enjoyed a solid season in some regards. Cervelli thwarted eight of the 25 stolen-base attempts against him (32 percent) and logged roughly average framing numbers per Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Statcast. Cervelli did struggle a bit in terms of blocking pitches and yielding passed balls, though one can also imagine that with better health, there’d be improvement — particularly considering his much stronger track record in that area.
NL Notes: Cervelli, Carlson, Garcia, Musgrove
The latest from the National League…
- The Marlins are trying to work out a contract with catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). Injuries have plagued Cervelli over the last several seasons, most notably (and seriously) a series of concussions. Cervelli was limited to only 48 games for the Pirates and Braves in 2019 due to concussion symptoms, yet it was as recently as 2018 that Cervelli hit .259/.378/.431 with 12 homers over 404 plate appearances for Pittsburgh. The 33-year-old backstop (notably, a former Yankees teammate of Marlins CEO Derek Jeter) would act as a veteran backup to Jorge Alfaro in Miami.
- Saturday’s trade between the Cardinals and Rangers that sent Adolis Garcia to Texas had roots at the Winter Meetings, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, as the Cards were known to be shopping their surplus of right-handed hitting outfielders. With this “head start on talks” about Garcia, the Cardinals expected Texas or another club to step up with a suitable trade offer when Garcia was designated for assignment earlier this week. Moving Garcia eliminated one name from a still-crowded Cardinals outfield, so more moves could still be in the offing for St. Louis. One player who doesn’t seem likely to be moved is top prospect Dylan Carlson, as the Cardinals unsurprisingly “have had near zero interest in including” Carlson in any trade talks this winter.
- Though the demand for pitching continues to increase and the Pirates could be entering into something of a rebuild period under new GM Ben Cherington, right-hander Joe Musgrove might not be a trade candidate, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required). “I seriously doubt [the Pirates] would talk about him. They may say they’d talk about him, but they’re not going to trade him,” a official on a rival team told Olney. Musgrove just turned 27 and is arbitration-eligible for only the first time, projected by MLBTR to earn $3.4MM. That’s a more than affordable price for the low-payroll Bucs, considering that Musgrove posted a 4.44 ERA, 4.03 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 over 170 1/3 innings last season, and generated 5.5 fWAR in 2018-19. The Blue Jays are one team known to have discussed Musgrove in trade talks this winter, though those discussions reportedly amounted to little.
Marlins Designate Kyle Keller For Assignment
The Marlins announced that they’ve designated right-hander Kyle Keller for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to right-hander Yimi Garcia, whose previously reported one-year contract with Miami is now official.
Keller, 26, was selected to the 40-man roster in advance of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. At the time, he had just wrapped up an impressive 2018 season in which he logged 52 2/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball across three minor league levels, averaging 13.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 along the way.
The 2019 season, though, wasn’t as successful. Keller tallied 54 innings of relief in Triple-A and maintained a strong strikeout rate (12.2 K/9), but his results didn’t match up to his 2018 output, due largely to an inability to strand runners (63.2 percent). Keller logged a 4.50 ERA in Triple-A and made his MLB debut late in the year, allowing four runs in 10 2/3 innings (3.38 ERA). But Keller also allowed three home runs in that brief time in addition to eight walks and two hit batsmen.
The Marlins will have a week to trade Keller or run him through outright waivers in hopes of keeping him in the organization.
Marlins Sign Ryan Lavarnway, Josh A. Smith
The Marlins announced a series of nine minor league signings on Wednesday, each of which contains an invitation to Major League Spring Training. In addition to confirming their previously reported signing of former All-Star Matt Kemp (more on that here), the Miami organization will bring two former big leaguers to camp: catcher Ryan Lavarnway and right-hander Josh A. Smith. Rounding out the list of non-roster invitees are catchers Brian Navarreto, Santiago Chavez and BJ Lopez; infielders Gosuke Katoh and Christian Lopes; and right-hander Aaron Northcraft.
Lavarnway, 32, has appeared in the Majors in eight of the past nine seasons — 2016 being the lone exception — but never tallied more than 166 plate appearances in a single MLB campaign. He’s a career .211/.270/.343 hitter in 445 trips to the plate at the big league level, and he owns a lifetime .272/.364/.426 batting line in 2055 Triple-A plate appearances spread across nine seasons. Lavarnway boasts a 31 percent caught-stealing rate in Triple-A but has struggled more in the Majors (20 percent).
Lavarnway has typically hovered around average in terms of pitch-framing in the upper minors (with the 2018 season being a notable outlier that saw him rate rather poorly). Miami has Jorge Alfaro and Chad Wallach on the 40-man roster but was thin at catcher beyond that, so the quartet of Lavarnway, Navarreto, Chavez and Lopez will add an influx of depth at the position.
Smith, also 32, pitched in 31 innings for the Red Sox in 2019 and has compiled 158 1/3 frames in the Majors between the Reds, A’s and Red Sox dating back to 2015. He has a career 5.40 ERA and a near-identical 5.37 FIP with averages of 7.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 1.65 HR/9 to go along with a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate.
The overall profile on Smith isn’t particularly appealing at first glance, but his curveball may have caught the attention of the Marlins. Smith ramped up the usage of his hook to a career-high 23.1 percent in 2019 and logged a career-high 12.1 percent overall swinging-strike rate (15.3 percent on the curve). Statcast pegged the spin rate on Smith’s curve in the 95th percentile among MLB hurlers, so perhaps the Marlins will look to more aggressively utilize that offering in hopes of coaxing better results out of the journeyman 32-year-old.
Marlins To Sign Matt Kemp
The Marlins have struck a minor-league pact with outfielder Matt Kemp, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The deal includes an invitation to MLB camp.
We’ve heard all winter that the Fish wish to add more pop to their corner outfield mix. Kemp definitely has a history of swinging a big stick. He’ll be looking to make a comeback at 35 years of age on the heels of an injury marred 2019 season.
Kemp has had peaks and valleys at the plate throughout his career, though he was at least an average hitter at his low points. He carries a lifetime .285/.337/.485 batting line with 281 home runs through nearly seven thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.
That career output is good for a 121 wRC+ — just a shade less than the 122 wRC+ he produced through 506 plate appearances in a surprise return to the Dodgers in 2018. Kemp ended up moving to the Reds via trade in the offseason, but never got off the ground in Cincinnati.
Kemp ended up appearing in only twenty MLB contests in 2019, a career-low for a player who debuted in 2006. He produced only a .200/.210/.283 slash in his 62 plate appearances with the Reds, striking out 19 times while drawing just a single walk. Kemp was dumped after he suffered a broken rib, an injury that lingered and cut short a brief attempt at getting things going at Triple-A with the Mets.
Even if Kemp is able to rebound at the plate, he’s not going to offer much in the field. But the Marlins will see how he looks in camp and go from there. Odds are Kemp won’t be tasked with an everyday role even if he’s in good form. The impact on the team’s other reputed offseason pursuits remains to be seen, but it seems fair to presume the signing won’t take the club out of the rest of the corner outfield market entirely.
MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract
With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.
Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.
Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.
What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.
As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.
Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.
Where Will Nicholas Castellanos Sign?
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Reds 22% (5,534)
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Cubs 20% (5,211)
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Giants 17% (4,374)
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White Sox 17% (4,244)
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Rangers 14% (3,492)
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Diamondbacks 4% (1,083)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,035)
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Marlins 3% (747)
Total votes: 25,720
For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.
How many guaranteed years will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
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Four years 49% (7,223)
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Three years 31% (4,639)
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Five-plus years 11% (1,681)
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Two years 7% (990)
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One year 2% (300)
Total votes: 14,833
What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.
How much guaranteed money will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
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$55-70MM 40% (5,574)
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$40-55MM 26% (3,550)
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$70-85MM 20% (2,743)
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Under $40MM 8% (1,113)
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Over $85MM 6% (821)
Total votes: 13,801
Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa
The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).
“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”
Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson‘s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.
Here are more rumblings from around the game…
- A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
- At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
- Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
Marlins Met With Yasiel Puig
As they continue to pursue outfield pop, the Marlins held a meeting recently with free agent Yasiel Puig, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That adds another intriguing possibility to the club’s widespread search.
The Marlins have been connected to quite a few corner outfielders to this point of the winter, both via trade and free agency. During the Winter Meetings, the club also chatted with the representatives of Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson — two of the top alternative corner outfielders remaining in free agency. Kole Calhoun and others are also reportedly under consideration.
Puig seems to be a fascinating target for the Miami organization. The Cuban star would certainly inject some charisma into the roster and suit the club’s desire to improve the appeal of its product for the local fanbase. As we noted in our ranking of the top 50 free agents, however, there has seemed to be one major roadblock: the highly strained relationship of Puig and Don Mattingly, the former Dodgers skipper who now helms the Fish. Evidently, there’s at least a willingness to explore a surprising reunion.
Whether the sit-down leaves Puig as a target or took him out of contention isn’t really known. Apart from his propensity for hijinks — sometimes endearing, other times not — Puig is a bit of a high-risk/high-reward player from a pure baseball perspective. He turned in approximately average overall results with the bat in 2019 and 2016, but was about twenty percent over the league mean in the two intervening seasons. Puig has a rifle in right field and has at times graded as an elite defender, but was average in the eyes of defensive metrics in 2019.
FA Rumors: Rendon, Rangers, Dickerson, Marlins, Shogo, Cards, Cubs
Third baseman Anthony Rendon came off the open market Wednesday when he accepted the Angels’ seven-year, $245MM guarantee. They were among a few clubs that were willing to commit that long to Rendon, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who tweets that four teams made seven-year offers to the former National. The Rangers didn’t quite go that far, however, with TR Sullivan of MLB.com reporting that they offered Rendon six years plus a club option. Josh Donaldson‘s now by far the top third baseman left in free agency, but it doesn’t appear the 3B-needy Rangers are going all-out for him, either.
Now the latest on a couple outfielders…
- Add Corey Dickerson to the list of free-agent corner outfielders on the Marlins’ radar, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Dickerson plus the previously reported Yasiel Puig and Kole Calhoun are “very much in play” for the offensively challenged Marlins, and they could sign someone by Christmas, Frisaro adds. No one from that trio had a better 2019 at the plate than the 30-year-old Dickerson, who slashed .304/.341/.565 (127 wRC+) with 12 home runs during a 78-game, 279-plate appearance campaign divided between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Thanks to Dickerson’s fairly long track record of above-average offense, MLBTR predicts he’ll earn a two-year, $15MM contract on the market.
- The Cardinals could emerge as legitimate suitors for free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports that they’ve “scouted him extensively.” The 31-year-old Akiyama, who is coming off a successful run in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, would give the Cardinals a lefty-hitting option in the outfield. That’s the type of player president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he’d like to add.
- The Cubs, St. Louis’ archrival, have also shown interest in Akiyama. They met with him this week at the Winter Meetings, though he “hasn’t emerged as the team’s top target for that leadoff/center-field position,” Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Chicago’s in the market for CF help after a horrid year from Albert Almora, but it’s unclear where they’ll turn for that.