Marlins Focused On Adding Relievers
Now that their deal with left fielder Corey Dickerson has been finalized, the Marlins plan to focus on adding to the bullpen, president of baseball operations Michael Hill indicated on a conference call Tuesday (Twitter link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Among the names the team is considering, SiriusXM’s Craig Mish reports, are Pedro Strop, Brandon Kintzler and Hector Rondon.
Miami has already added Dickerson, Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar to a lineup that ranked 29th in the Majors in runs scored, 29th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging percentage thus far in the offseason. They’ve also signed Francisco Cervelli to back up Jorge Alfaro and made a handful of minor league signings, headlined by Matt Kemp.
The lineup hasn’t exactly been built up into a powerhouse, but there’s little denying that it looks like a more robust collection of bats than the group trotted out in 2019. However, the bullpen has gone largely unaddressed to this point; the Marlins, rather, have subtracted more relievers from the organization than they’ve acquired. Control-challenged relievers like Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley and Kyle Keller have all been jettisoned from the 40-man roster, much as Austin Brice was earlier today when making room for Dickerson.
Miami has added right-hander Yimi Garcia on a big league deal and righty Ryan Cook on a minor league pact, but the organization has otherwise been quiet when it comes to adding to the ‘pen. Current options on the roster include right-handers Drew Steckenrider and Ryne Stanek as well as southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Adam Conley. Last year’s Opening Day starter, Jose Urena, lost his rotation spot and was moved to the bullpen late in 2019, and Hill indicated today that Urena will get another shot at claiming a bullpen role in 2020 (Twitter link via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald)
Obviously, a grouping of Urena, Steckenrider, Stanek, Conley and both Garcias leaves plenty of room for potential augmentation. But the relief market has also thinned out considerably, with Strop, Kintzler and Rondon shifting from middle-tier options at the onset of free agency to some of the most appealing names yet to sign. This patient approach is often necessary for the Marlins or teams in similar rebuilding situations, as some free agents are hesitant to sign with a non-contending club early in the winter (barring an overpay). But as contending clubs spend their money and fill holes on the roster, the allure of high-leverage innings and a guaranteed salary with a rebuilding clubs only increases.
The Marlins did well to wait out the market and sign Sergio Romo to a $2.5MM contract last winter — a move that ultimately netted them first base prospect Lewin Diaz at the trade deadline. Whether it’s Strop, Kintzler, Rondon or another veteran arm, the Miami organization will be hoping for a similarly beneficial result in the coming weeks as they try to add to their stock of relievers on what’ll surely be a short-term arrangement.
Marlins, Ryan Cook Agree To Minor League Deal
The Marlins and right-hander Ryan Cook are in agreement on a minor league contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Excel Sports client would earn $750K upon making the big league roster and could earn an additional $250K worth of incentives to bring the total value of the deal to an even $1MM.
Cook, 32, spent the 2019 season with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but narrowly kept his ERA south of 5.00 and also spent some time with the club’s minor league affiliate. It wasn’t an inspiring season, to be sure, but Cook’s track record nevertheless has its fair share of appeal.
It’s easy to forget that back in 2012, Cook was an All-Star reliever for the Athletics. From 2012-14, he was a vital member of the Oakland relief corps, pitching to a combined 2.60 ERA and a similarly impressive 2.96 FIP. Cook maintained a ground-ball rate north of 46 percent, averaged better than a strikeout per inning and yielded just nine home runs in 190 2/3 innings across that three-year span.
Unfortunately for both Cook and the A’s, injuries began to mount in 2014-15. A forearm strain and shoulder inflammation slowed him over those two seasons, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016. In the five years since the conclusion of that outstanding three-year run, Cook has thrown just 25 2/3 innings at the MLB level — mostly coming with the 2018 Mariners.
The Marlins’ bullpen is anything but settled, which should give Cook a legitimate chance to break camp with the club if he puts together an impressive Spring Training. Drew Steckenrider, Ryne Stanek, Yimi Garcia, Adam Conley, Jarlin Garcia and Jose Urena are all options for manager Don Mattingly in 2020. If Cook can complete his comeback and make it through the season, the Marlins would control him through the 2021 season via arbitration.
Marlins Announce Corey Dickerson Signing, Designate Austin Brice
The Marlins announced today that they have inked outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year deal, as had previously been reported. Righty Austin Brice was designated for assignment to create roster space.
Dickerson is a well-established hitter who can reasonably be expected to turn in above-average work with the bat. He’s best utilized in a platoon capacity but will presumably be given more opportunities against left-handed pitching in Miami than he would’ve received elsewhere. A surprise defensive darling in 2018, Dickerson graded poorly with the glove last year. The Fish will likely be pleased if they receive palatable fielding.
This signing is the clearest indication that the Marlins want to begin moving in a positive direction in the win/loss column. There’s no real hope of a 2020 surprise, as the organization still lags in present-day MLB ability, but there’s obviously a belief that its worth making some targeted investments — and, perhaps, that Dickerson could be a part of a charge in 2021.
At the same time, the Marlins will part with yet another young pitcher. They’ve already designated Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley, and Kyle Keller earlier in the offseason. Every one of those arms landed on another 40-man roster via trade or claim.
There could also be interest from other organizations in the 27-year-old Brice, who has already bounced around a bit. He’s fresh off of his most successful MLB stint yet, having provided the Marlins with 44 2/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2019. Brice reduced the usage of his sinker in favor of his curve and four-seamer, resulting in a boost in strikeouts (9.3 K/9) but also a reduction in groundball induction (42.2%). Statcast figures suggest Brice was successfully able to induce poor contact when he did allow it (.292 wOBA vs. .293 xwOBA), but fielding-independent metrics still weren’t sold on the results (4.87 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA) due in no small part to ongoing home run issues (1.41 per nine).
Unfortunately, Brice also dealt with forearm issues that scuttled his season. His current health situation isn’t really known, but it stands to reason that the Marlins were somewhat less than optimistic about its impact on his outlook.
Angels Acquire Kyle Keller, Designate Jake Jewell
The Angels have acquired right-hander Kyle Keller from the Marlins for catcher Jose Estrada, according to announcements from both teams. The Angels designated righty Jake Jewell for assignment in a corresponding move.
Keller’s the only player in the two-man trade who comes with major league experience. An 18th-round pick of the Marlins in 2015, Keller debuted in the bigs last season with 10 2/3 innings of four-earned run ball, in which he struck out 11 and walked eight. The 26-year-old spent the majority of the season at the Triple-A level, where he posted a 4.50 ERA/4.19 FIP with a whopping 12.17 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 over 54 innings. Although Keller was at least a useful minor league arm for the Marlins, they designated him Dec. 20.
Jewell, also 26, now finds himself in DFA limbo after struggling in both the minors and majors last season. An Angel since they used a fifth-rounder on him in 2014, Jewell threw a career-high 26 1/3 frames in 2019. However, despite an eye-popping 63.8 percent groundball rate, Jewell only managed a 6.84 ERA/6.67 FIP with 7.86 K/9 against 2.73 BB/9.
In Estrada, the Marlins are getting a 19-year-old who’s coming off his first pro season. Estrada took 176 plate appearances at the rookie level last year and batted .247/.335/.305 without a home run.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jonathan Villar
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Jonathan Villar is projected for a hefty raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility in 2019, thanks to a significant improvement over his performance the prior two years. Villar hit for a career-high 24 home runs and 73 runs batted in last season, while also hitting .274 and stealing 40 bases. Villar appeared in all 162 of the Orioles’ games, accumulating 714 plate appearances. After Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, my model projects him to more than double that amount, with a $5.575MM raise to a $10.4MM salary for 2020. However, there really are not many useful comparables to work with in Villar’s case.
Very few players with Villar’s service time have similar profiles in terms of home runs and stolen bases. There is only one such player who had more than half as many of each in the last five years — Eduardo Nunez, who also stole 40 bases and hit 16 home runs back in 2016, while batting .288 and knocking in 67 runs over 141 games and 595 PA. Other than VIllar’s eight extra home runs, Nunez does look similar, albeit with fewer plate appearances (119 less than Villar) and games played (21 less). Nunez only got a $2.7MM raise, so add in some inflation and the effect of the extra home runs and extra games, and maybe Villar could get close to a $4MM raise, but that is still far short of the model’s $5.575MM raise estimate.
Looking for players with over 700 PA in the last two years, we find Cesar Hernandez from last year and Charlie Blackmon from two years ago, though Blackmon isn’t a comparable since his case relies more on overall hitting numbers than power and speed (.331 average, 34 homers, 104 RBI, 14 steals for Blackmon in 2017). Hernandez got a $2.65MM raise last offseason coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a .253 average, 15 home runs, and 60 RBI, to go along with 19 steals. This is an obvious floor for Villar, as he should clearly exceed this range.
Also from last year, Didi Gregorius may be a more realistic floor for Villar. He got a $3.5MM raise after hitting .268 with 27 HR and 86 RBI — all similar to Villar — but only stealing 10 bases. Of course, Gregorius only had 569 PA, far less than Villar’s 714 PA. Villar should certainly clear $3.5MM as well.
My best guess is Villar gets a raise of around $4MM to $4.5MM. The model may be estimating high because it is rewarding him heavily for his 714 plate appearances. Although the model has clearly established that the average effect of more plate appearances really compounds, there may be exceptions in cases like these. I do not think Villar reaches the $5.575MM raise estimate, so he should land closer to $9MM than the $10.4MM the model forecast.
Marlins To Sign Pat Venditte
The Marlins have a minor-league deal in place with reliever Pat Venditte, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). It includes an invitation to the MLB side of Spring Training.
Venditte, 34, has thrown only 68 MLB innings to this point of his career. But as journeyman middle relievers go, he’s as interesting as they come. Venditte is a true unicorn of the game: a switch-pitcher who utilizes a customized glove to change his throwing hand depending upon the batter.
Things didn’t work out last year with the Giants, as Venditte received only two appearances in the bigs. But he did work to a 2.85 ERA in 47 1/3 innings at Triple-A, with a healthy combination of 11.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
Marlins Reportedly Interested In Kim Jae-Hwan
7:14pm: Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio passes along different information, tweeting that the Marlins are no longer interested in Kim after signing Dickerson.
6:21 pm: The Marlins are showing interest in Korean outfielder Kim Jae-Hwan, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports. Kim has until 4 p.m. CT on Jan. 5 to sign with a major league club after his Korea Baseball Organization club, the Doosan Bears, posted him Dec. 5.
The Marlins are the first reported MLB team to be eyeing the 31-year-old Kim, who debuted in the KBO in 2008 and was a force from 2016-18. During that three-year, 1,806-plate appearance span, Kim amassed 116 home runs with an OPS upward of 1.000, even winning league MVP honors in the last of those seasons. Kim’s numbers took a turn for the worse in 2019, though, as he batted .283/.362/.434 with 15 homers across 574 trips to the plate.
Should the Marlins land Kim, he’d be the second notable outfield addition for the club this winter, joining the just-signed Corey Dickerson. And it could help the Marlins’ cause in this case that they have Trey Hillman on their staff. The first base/infield coach managed against Kim in Korea for two years, as Yoo notes, so he’s quite familiar with his capabilities.
MLBTR Poll: Grading Miami’s Corey Dickerson Signing
The Marlins’ signing of outfielder Corey Dickerson to a two-year, $17.5MM deal will not go down as this offseason’s most surprising–in fact, his ultimate guarantee was right in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $15MM pact back in November. In terms of context, the deal also sits snugly alongside Kole Calhoun‘s signature on a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona earlier this month.
Dickerson might be called the ideal of a solid regular. He’s not an elite defender, his 2018 Gold Glove notwithstanding, but his facility with the stick has made him a must-start during stints with the Rockies, Rays, Pirates and Phillies since breaking into the league 2013. The thirty-year-old owns a .286/.328/.504 slash line with 115 home runs in nearly 800 career games, with a 117 wRC+ suggesting he’s been nearly 20 percent better than an average hitter since 2013. By the latter metric, he’s performed comparably with players like Starling Marte (117 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+) over that span.
Dickerson has recorded 2.6 fWAR or better in three separate seasons as a full-timer, despite nagging injuries throughout his career; if he can perform to those levels for the Fish, there should be a lot of excess value in this deal. Of course, Dickerson may not spend his entire tenure with Miami, as the limited term of this deal might make him an attractive trade target at the ’20 and ’21 deadlines, assuming his continued health and Miami’s continuation in a textbook rebuild pattern (perhaps not a safe assumption considering Miami’s similarly savvy Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar pickups this winter).
Dickerson’s signing does also carry a few implications beyond just shoring up Miami’s corner outfield, as his relatively light commitment is further evidence that the ever-heightening AAV peaks achieved by premium performers in recent winters have yet to trickle down in the form of substantive raises for middle-class players. Moreover, Dickerson’s relative merits when pitted against free agents Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos may cast some doubt on the ability of those players to secure truly hefty guarantees before camp breaks.
Regardless, Miami’s signing of Dickerson reads like the move of a team inching its way out of a rebuild by committing a reasonable amount of money to a relatively stable, if imperfect, player in his prime; the club may yet have a few more losing years ahead, but it’s hard to accuse a team of “tanking” when they add players of his caliber.
Let’s open the floor: how do you grade Miami’s Dickerson addition? (Poll link for app users)
Marlins To Sign Corey Dickerson
The Marlins are finalizing a two-year deal with free-agent outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The contract will pay the 30-year-old $17.5MM over the next two years, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal is pending a physical.
In adding Dickerson, the Marlins have done well to fill a big need in the corner outfield, a vacancy they sought to address with one of Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, or Yasiel Puig. With Calhoun latching on with the Diamondbacks, it was reported this morning that the Fish were focusing their efforts on Dickerson rather than Puig, who’s undeniably a bigger name but whose offensive production veered in the wrong direction last year. Dickerson also adds a lefty bat to a lineup that’s otherwise heavy on right-handers; second baseman Isan Diaz is the only other projected starter who’s a true lefty.
Dickerson has a Gold Glove to his name, but if advanced metrics are to be believed, that caliber of performance is the exception, not the rule, with Dickerson, who was credited with saving 16 runs in left field in 2018—in all other years, he’s been worth -14 DRS. His calling card is his above-average offensive output; he’s been pretty consistently good at the plate since 2017, posting a wRC+ of at least 115 (15 percent better than average) in each of the last three seasons.
The addition of Dickerson is the latest in a series of solid additions for a Marlins team that finished with baseball’s third-worst record in 2019. They already nabbed Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar earlier this month, claiming the former on waivers and the trading for the latter after the Orioles designated him for assignment. Veteran catcher Francisco Cervelli, signed last week, is another significant addition. They’re by no means dominating the offseason storylines by bringing in a handful of low-risk players, but these look like savvy acquisitions for a rebuilding club that has now overhauled one-third of its starting lineup.
Targeting the likes of Aguilar, Villar, Cervelli, and Dickerson on short-term contracts does no harm to the Marlins’ long-term financial outlook and figures to only help the team remain competitive in 2020. At the very least, acquisitions like this represent potential trade chips for a club that might still be a couple years away; still, these moves shouldn’t simply be dismissed as such.
Dickerson should slot in as Miami’s everyday left fielder, with Brian Anderson in the other outfield corner. Lewis Brinson might have another crack at the center field job, but he’ll be on a short leash after a rough couple of seasons. Interestingly, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports even suggests that Villar could be in the mix for that center field position. He’s played the position only sparingly in his career and hasn’t done so in a game since 2017, but few will question whether he has the speed to patrol the spacious outfield of Marlins Park.
Outfield Market Notes: Akiyama, Puig, Dickerson
Potential Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, 31, remains a popular target on the free agent market. Yesterday’s reports affirmed the Reds and Padres atop the list of pursuers. The long-time Seibu Lions centerfielder is said to have 3-year offers on the table, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Cubs and Diamondbacks have also consistently been linked to the left-handed hitter, while the Rays and Blue Jays have had reported interest at various times during the offseason.
The 45th-ranked free agent on our Top 50 Free Agents list, Akiyama is one of the only true centerfield options on the open market, and he carries enough bat to find a place near the top of a batting order. His on-base ability in particular is drawing teams to his door, per Heyman. He carries a career .301/.376/.454 line from 9 seasons in the NPB, with OBPs floating right around .400 over the past five seasons.
MLBTR’s Dylan A. Chase asked readers early in the offseason to predict which NPB import would collect the largest guarantee. Akiyama landed firmly between Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shun Yamaguchi. We now know Tsutsugo claimed $12MM from the Rays while Yamaguchi got $6.35MM from the Blue Jays. Both deals are for two seasons. So while it’s reasonable to expect Akiyama to come on a fairly reasonable contract, the dearth of centerfield options could drive the bidding beyond either deal’s total guarantee.
Elsewhere among outfielders, the Marlins remain interested in Yasiel Puig. The volatile Cuban outfielder would certainly entertain Floridians, even if the .267/.327/.458 line he put up for the Reds and Indians in 2019 isn’t necessarily awe-inspiring. He did technically produce at an above-average rate with a 101 wRC+.
The Marlins, however, seem to be leaning towards Corey Dickerson at the moment, per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (via Twitter). The Fish have outfield prospects knocking on the door (namely, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez), as well as intriguing talent a little further away (JJ Bleday, Victor Victor Mesa, Kameron Misner) – but they continue to explore adding offensive talent for the near-term.