NL East Notes: Realmuto, CarGo, Marlins, Braves, Vargas
Newly acquired catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies have yet to discuss a contract extension, agent Jeff Berry said at this week’s news conference to introduce Realmuto to his new team (link via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia). That doesn’t mean that the two sides won’t eventually sit down and try to work out a long-term arrangement, but Realmuto said at his introduction that he’s scarcely even had time to think about contractual matters on the heels of such a hectic week. “I’ve heard nothing but amazing things,” Realmuto said of the Phillies organization, “so we’ll see about that in the future.” The Phillies control the All-Star for another two seasons.
Here’s more from the division…
- The Marlins are open to signing another veteran position player, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who calls longtime Rockies outfielder and South Florida resident Carlos Gonzalez a “possible pick-up” for the team. The 33-year-old Gonzalez has seen his offensive numbers drop in recent seasons; while his combined .269/.334/.445 slash and 30 homers over his past 1038 plate appearances are solid at first glance, park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ feel his bat has been a bit below the league average when factoring in the positive effect of Coors Field. CarGo was an NL All-Star as recently as 2016 and ripped 40 homers for the Rockies in 2015. Lewis Brinson, Brian Anderson, Magneuris Sierra and Austin Dean are among Miami’s current outfield options on the 40-man roster, and the Marlins also recently inked Curtis Granderson to a minor league contract.
- Although the Braves have been quiet in terms of roster additions since signing Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann early in the offseason, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the team expects payroll to increase over its year-end mark of $126MM, be it via spring additions or in-season player acquisition. Atlanta currently has a projected payroll of about $118MM, which would suggest there’s room for at least another $8-9MM to be added, though O’Brien notes that the organization is (unsurprisingly) not divulging a target number for the 2019 payroll. At the time of Nick Markakis‘ return to the organization last month, general manager Alex Anthopoulos spoke about how the relatively low guarantee on that contract could provide some additional flexibility down the line, though that has yet to manifest in the form of a roster move.
- Mets fans hoping for their club to add another starting pitcher don’t appear likely to have that wish granted, as skipper Mickey Callaway declared lefty Jason Vargas the team’s fifth starter yesterday (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Further, that proclamation indicates that there won’t be a competition for the final rotation spot, which could’ve otherwise included apparently bullpen-bound righties such as Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman or any of the team’s arms in the upper minors (e.g. Corey Oswalt). Certainly, a spring injury or two could change that reality, but for the time being, it appears the Mets are content not only with the arms they have on the 40-man roster but also with the expected roles for each of those pitchers.
Marlins To Hire Jorge Posada
The Marlins are “expected” to hire long-time MLB catcher Jorge Posada as a special adviser to the club’s baseball operations department, according to Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Posada’s precise duties aren’t yet known.
Posada obviously has deep ties with Marlins CEO Derek Jeter. The pair starred together for years with the Yankees, forming half of the legendary “core four” that helped lead the New York organization to five World Series titles.
A resident of the Miami area, Posada has already established something of a presence around Marlins Park. He’ll now have a direct tie to the organization, though it remains to be seen how significant his role will be.
Posada hung up his spikes after the 2011 campaign, wrapping up an excellent 17-year career. Since then, however, Posada has kept a relatively low profile in terms of his involvement with Major League Baseball.
Marlins Eyeing Veteran Relievers
The Marlins are on the hunt for a veteran addition to their largely inexperienced bullpen, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Frisaro plainly that his club is “exploring” the addition of an experienced reliever to help work with younger arms like Drew Steckenrider, Adam Conley and Tayron Guerrero at the back of the Marlins’ bullpen.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Sergio Romo is among the names the Marlins are considering, which makes for the fourth team tied to Romo in the past two days. (Toronto, Minnesota and Texas were all tied to Romo recently, though the latter two are said to prefer a minor league deal for the veteran righty.) MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Romo is a “strong possibility” for Miami, noting that while the team has talked to other names, Romo appears to be the team’s focus at present.
Frisaro, meanwhile, lists right-handers Nick Vincent and Adam Warren as possibilities for the Fish, noting that new Marlins pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. is quite familiar with Vincent from the pair’s time together with the Mariners.
There’s a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the complexion of Miami’s relief corps at present, with few locks to make the big league roster beyond the aforementioned trio of Steckenrider, Conley and Guerrero. Steckenrider was the team’s best reliever in 2018, and while Guerrero had his share of struggles, he boasts a triple-digit fastball and, more importantly, is out of minor league options (as is Conley).
Righty Austin Brice, recently claimed off waivers, is another out-of-options arm who could quite likely factor into the fold. Hill spoke with Frisaro at length about how Brice would give the team a ground-ball-oriented reliever it lacked last season following the trade of Brad Ziegler. However, while Hill termed Brice a “severe sinkerball pitcher,” it’s worth noting that Brice’s 51.2 percent ground-ball rate, while above the league average, is still a ways from elite territory.
In hearing Hill talk about his desire to have a reliever who can get crucial grounders when needed, it’s worth noting that none of Romo, Vincent or Warren is much of a ground-ball pitcher. Warren was earlier in his career but saw his grounder rate dip below 40 percent last season, while Romo and Vincent have been fly-ball arms throughout their careers. That’s not to say that the Marlins couldn’t add one of that bunch, of course; however, if that’s a goal for the Miami front office, then perhaps the addition of someone such as Romo won’t be the last new arm brought into the mix. There are a few other free-agent relievers still on the market, and Spring Training will present further opportunities for the Marlins to add arms of that nature as they become available via waivers or as veteran relievers opt out of minor league deals with other organizations throughout March.
Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins
Nolan Arenado‘s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal. Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear. (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.) More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.
Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…
- Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2. Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
- While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball. That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
- Trevor Bauer‘s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome. There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary. This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season. Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason. He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
- The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link). Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017. The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners. Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017. Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
- “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies. These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/10/19
The latest minor moves from around baseball…
Latest Moves
- The Giants outrighted right-hander Derek Law and outfielder John Andreoli to Triple-A after both players cleared waivers, as per a team announcement (hat tip to NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic). Law and Andreoli were both recently designated for assignment; in fact, Law was DFA’ed to clear roster space for Andreoli’s signing on February 1. The two will remain in San Francisco’s farm system as depth options, though Andreoli might have a clearer path to winning a big league job given the Giants’ lack of everyday outfielders.
Earlier Today
- The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Isaac Galloway to Triple-A New Orleans after he cleared waivers, Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel tweets. Galloway will attend major league spring training as a non-roster invitee, the team announced. The Marlins designated Galloway for assignment this past Monday to make room for the addition of right-hander Austin Brice, whom they claimed off waivers from the Orioles. A member of the Marlins since they selected him in the eighth round of the 2008 draft, the 29-year-old Galloway finally debuted in the majors last season, when he totaled 74 plate appearances and slashed .203/.301/.391 with three home runs. Galloway has posted nearly identical numbers at the Triple-A level, where he has hit .256/.304/.393 in 1,395 PAs, though he is coming off a 20-stolen base season in the minors.
Poll: Grading The J.T. Realmuto Trade
After several months of nonstop rumors centering on J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins finally found an offer to their liking for the superstar catcher Thursday, when they dealt him to the NL East rival Phillies. Entering the offseason, it seemed inevitable the rebuilding Marlins would part with Realmuto, who made it clear on multiple occasions going back to last winter that he was uninterested in signing an extension with the club.
At times this offseason, Realmuto drew interest from nearly half the league (14 teams), and with such a vast market for his services, Miami spent the past few months holding out for a Godfather offer from one of those clubs. In the end, the Marlins accepted a three-player return consisting of major league catcher Jorge Alfaro, who will immediately replace Realmuto in their starting lineup, two pitching prospects (right-hander Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart) and $250K in international slot money.
For the Phillies, the Realmuto acquisition is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. Coming off their seventh straight non-playoff season and sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Phillies are aiming to push for a playoff spot in 2019 with newcomers Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly Bryce Harper or Manny Machado helping lead the way. And Realmuto – who was the undisputed premier catcher in the game last year – will help their cause beyond the upcoming campaign, as he’s controllable through 2020.
For the Marlins, the Realmuto trade is the latest win-later move dating back to last winter, when the low-budget club traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for futures. In Alfaro, they received a player who showed a penchant for striking out and little ability to walk from 2017-18, his first two seasons of extensive major league action. But Alfaro was nonetheless respectable at the plate during that span, and the cannon-armed 25-year-old is fresh off a season in which he earned raves from defensive metrics. To this point, then, Alfaro has been a satisfactory pro. However, whether Alfaro will continue to serve as an acceptable starter or fall backward could hinge on improving his high-strikeout, low-walk ways, especially considering he won’t keep running a career .405 batting average on balls in play.
While Alfaro’s the only current major leaguer Miami got for Realmuto, Sanchez looks like the biggest prize. Despite the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s diminutive stature, each of FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law rank Sanchez between fifth and 35th on their list of the majors’ top prospects. All of those outlets and individuals agree the flamethrowing Sanchez has the upside of a front-line rotation piece, and at 20 years old, he’ll breathe new life into the Marlins’ farm system. Although Sanchez hasn’t pitched above the High-A level yet, once he gets to Miami, he could emerge as its best starter since the Jose Fernandez era came to a tragic conclusion in 2016.
Stewart, 21, is far less intriguing than Sanchez, with MLB.com ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 25 prospect. Whereas Sanchez is a potential No. 1 starter who possesses electrifying velocity, MLB.com regards Stewart as a possible back-end type whose velocity is “average.” To Stewart’s credit, though, he did post tremendous results last year at the Single-A level, where he logged a 2.06 ERA with 7.13 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and a 62.1 percent groundball rate, mimicking the best version of Dallas Keuchel in that regard.
With Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and a bit more international spending room in tow, there’s plenty for Miami to dream on going forward. The Phillies, meanwhile, made a substantial near-term upgrade behind the plate, albeit one that cost them their previous No. 1 prospect and another promising hurler. In your estimation, how did the two teams fare in this swap? Cast your votes below…
(Phillies poll link for app users; Marlins poll link for app users)
Grade the Realmuto trade for the Phillies
-
A 41% (9,024)
-
B 40% (8,825)
-
C 14% (3,076)
-
D 4% (780)
-
F 2% (467)
Total votes: 22,172
Grade the Realmuto trade for the Marlins
-
B 35% (7,060)
-
A 27% (5,373)
-
C 26% (5,184)
-
D 8% (1,637)
-
F 4% (884)
Total votes: 20,138
NL East Notes: Phillies, Moose, Marlins, Alfaro, Braves, Brantley
The Phillies have reportedly shown interest in third baseman Mike Moustakas, who could be a fallback signing if they don’t win the battle for fellow free agent Manny Machado. But now, unless the Phillies miss out on both Machado and free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, the chances of Moustakas joining the team appear especially slim. If Philadelphia signs Harper over Machado, “it seems unlikely” the club would also add Moustakas, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Rather, the Phillies would probably be content with a revamped lineup that would include Harper and other high-profile newcomers in J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, Zolecki posits. In that scenario, Maikel Franco – who, at least offensively, was similar to Moustakas in 2018 – and Scott Kingery would be their top options at third base.
Here’s the latest on a pair of Philly’s division rivals:
- The Marlins intend to strengthen their bullpen from outside in the coming days, president of baseball operations Michael Hill told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and other reporters Saturday. “Hopefully, we’ll get that taken care of before pitchers take the field [on Wednesday],” said Hill, who wants a “veteran bullpen piece to help with” the unit’s younger pitchers. There’s still a good amount of familiar free-agent relievers the low-payroll Marlins should be able to afford as they seek to bolster a relief unit that was among the majors’ worst in 2018.
- Outfielder Michael Brantley accepted Houston’s two-year, $32MM back in December, but the Braves came “very close” to matching the Astros’ offer, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. A month after losing out on Brantley, the Braves brought back the less exciting Nick Markakis on a one-year, $6MM deal to fill their vacancy in the corner outfield. For the second straight year, Markakis, Ender Inciarte and young superstar Ronald Acuna are in line to accrue the lion’s share of playing time among Braves outfielders.
- As you’d expect, the Marlins are high on catcher Jorge Alfaro, one of the players they acquired from Philadelphia in Thursday’s blockbuster trade centering on Realmuto. Manager Don Mattingly raved about Alfaro’s arm Saturday, saying that “J.T. threw great” but “[Alfaro] throws better,” via Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Indeed, Realmuto finished second only to Alfaro in arm strength in 2018, according to Statcast, and the latter also beat out the former (and nearly every other catcher in the sport) as an overall defender, per Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. But whether Alfaro succeeds offensively will help determine how well the Marlins did in this trade, of course, and Spencer points out the 25-year-old is no sure thing at the plate. Alfaro produced respectable bottom-line results from 2017-18, a 491-plate appearance span in which he slashed .275/.332/.432 (103 wRC+). At the same time, though, he struck out in nearly 35 percent percent of trips while walking just 4.3 of the time. Mattingly acknowledged that Alfaro has work to do in that area, but the skipper noted he has an “efficient” swing and improvement’s “just a matter of approach and thinking.”
NL Notes: Brewers, Moustakas, Shaw, Marlins, Anderson
A return to Milwaukee for Mike Moustakas “seems inevitable,” writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also suspects the Crew aren’t willing to extend a multi-year offer to the 30-year-old third baseman. Moustakas, who yet again has garnered little interest in his repeat foray into the free-agent market, would figure to reprise his role as the team’s primary third baseman, shifting Travis Shaw across the diamond to second. Moose’s 105 wRC+ output was slightly down from the previous three seasons, though his hard-hit rate jumped to a career-best 41.2%. His ZiPS projection, released yesterday on FanGraphs, shines brightly, perhaps as a result: the system forecasts a 116 OPS+/3.2 WAR output for the longtime Royal, seeing him as an easily above-average big-league third baseman. MLB teams, it seems, are hardly in accord.
Here’s more from around the NL . . .
- Milwaukee, who’s yet to tire of yo-yoing Shaw back and forth from second to third, also hasn’t begun extension talks with the now-versatile 28-year-old, reports Rosenthal. Fresh off his third 118 or better wRC+ season in four years, the former ninth-round selection of the Red Sox has found a home in Wisconsin, turning in consecutive 3.5+ fWAR campaigns in his first two seasons with the team. Peripherals paint an even better picture: Shaw upped his walk rate by nearly four percent, to 13.3, and dropped his strikeout rate to a career-low 18.4%, his first MLB season under 20 in the category. Though the minor-league track record was mostly stellar, save for two stints in AAA, the son of longtime MLB closer Jeff Shaw was never a highly-touted prospect, even in the hyped-up Boston system, and it’s certainly possible that the Brewers would like to see more before offering him a hefty chunk of change. Still, another season like the last two, and it may not be Milwaukee on the next deal’s bottom line.
- The quartet of prospects sent from Milwaukee to Miami in the Christian Yelich deal, headlined by the trio of Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, and Isan Diaz, top 100 guys all, have yet to look the part. Still, Miami doesn’t view the return as a “lost cause,” writes Rosenthal, who notes that the Fish are still particularly high on minor-league strikeout king Harrison. Diaz, too, has flashed an intriguing power/plate-discipline combo in the upper minors, and appears poised to get his second-base shot in the upcoming campaign. Brinson, to be sure, suffered through a rookie campaign that almost could not have gone worse, but figures to get all the ship-righting opportunities he needs in the seasons to come.
- Third baseman-turned-right fielder Brian Anderson will move back to the hot corner for 2019, tweets the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer. Anderson handled the shift with aplomb last season, posting 4 DRS and a +5 UZR on the way to an impressive 3.4 fWAR rookie campaign. Still, a young, well-rounded third baseman is a tougher find, and the Fish will surely like to test their young outfielders in the months to come. One-time incumbent Martin Prado may be on his last leg, and it seems the Marlins will again to look to the 35-year-old to fill his early-career super-utility role in 2019.
MLBTR Poll: NL East Hierarchy
In an offseason that will be remembered for teams’ reluctance to shell out big money for the Hot Stove season’s biggest names, the NL East has been an outlier. Three of its teams–the Mets, Nationals, and Phillies–have gone against the grain, employing aggressive strategies and eyeing a 2019 division title in what appears to be an open field. Certainly, the division projects to be one of baseball’s most competitive in the upcoming season, featuring four teams that have at least a fighter’s chance at seizing the NL East crown. After the Nationals’ dominating run atop the division in recent years, the club took a step back in 2018, all while the Braves and Phillies enjoyed seemingly premature success. And with the Nationals preparing to bid goodbye to their franchise player, there is no clear favorite to win the division as spring training draws near. Which team’s slate of offseason moves will lead to a postseason appearance?
The Mets turned heads with their blockbuster December trade to acquire Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano from the rebuilding Mariners, loudly marking the arrival a new front office regime headed by general manager Brodie Van Wagenen. Van Wagenen has placed his club firmly in “win-now” territory, supplementing the Diaz deal with signings of solid regulars Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie, to say nothing of his efforts to shore up a lackluster bullpen with the additions of Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, and Luis Avilan. Van Wagenen has not been shy about making trades, swinging three separate deals that brought Keon Broxton and J.D. Davis to New York and shipped backstop Kevin Plawecki to Cleveland. The club was also rumored to have offered $64MM to Yasmani Grandal–who ultimately declined and signed with the Brewers–and has been linked to Gio Gonzalez to round out an already-stellar starting rotation. The Mets will also count on a contribution from first baseman Peter Alonso, who made a name for himself with his display of power in 2018, slugging 36 total home runs across two levels of the minors. It remains to be seen whether the revamped roster will be enough to carry the Mets into October, but the team’s aggressiveness this winter has certainly put them in position to compete.
Though it’s entirely possible that Bryce Harper has played his last game in a Nationals uniform, the team still appears well-equipped for another run at the postseason in 2019. Owner Ted Lerner, for his part, has exhibited a willingness to invest heavily in the current iteration of the Nationals: the team has already doled out the offseason’s single largest contract of the offseason, adding standout lefty Patrick Corbin to a pitching staff that already features Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Furthermore, the club was reported to have offered Bryce Harper at least $300MM to remain in the nation’s capital for the next decade. All that not to mention the additions of Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Barraclough, Matt Adams, and Anibal Sanchez. Dozier, who was hamstrung by injuries in 2018, will look to return to form as a right-handed power bat who can play up the middle. Suzuki will work in tandem with trade acquisition Yan Gomes to stabilize the catcher position, where the Nationals sorely lacked for production in 2018. Sanchez, who enjoyed a career renaissance last season, will slot in behind the big names as the fourth starter. Even if Harper decides to play out his prime elsewhere, the Nats still feel comfortable with their outfield mix moving forward. Standout rookie Juan Soto will be joined by highly-touted prospect Victor Robles and veteran Adam Eaton, who has posted an impressive .816 OPS in his injury-shortened Nationals career.
With today’s acquisition of catcher J.T. Realmuto, one of the offseason’s most sought-after prizes, the Phillies have vaulted themselves into the conversation atop the NL East. Entering the offseason, the circumstances were clear: Phillies ownership was sitting on heaps of money, fully preparing to invest it into one, if not both, of the top available players. While Phillies fans have thus far had to settle for the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, David Robertson, and now Realmuto, both Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, and Philadelphia remains in play for the two megastars. Even without one of Harper or Machado, the Phillies can’t be discounted in the race to the top of the NL East. Though the team finished with an unimpressive 80 wins in 2018, Philadelphia kept pace with the Nationals and Braves for much of the season, until a late-season collapse took them out of the race. Gabe Kapler and his staff will lean on leadership from veterans Realmuto, McCutchen, and Robertson in an effort to prevent the club from running out of gas again in 2019. Considering the possibility that Philly’s biggest moves have yet to come, Phillies leadership must feel optimistic about their team’s chances moving forward.
The 2018 division winners, the Braves, have largely remained quiet in the winter. With their rebuild taking off seemingly a year ahead of schedule, team leadership, sitting on a farm system brimming with potential impact players, may be hesitant to commit fully to a win-now mentality. After inking 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal early in the offseason, the team’s biggest move has been to bring back 2018 All-Star Nick Markakis on a one-year contract. Many onlookers have expressed frustration at the team’s hesitance to pursue big names, but Atlanta evidently feels content to bank on steps forward from its young core, including Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson, as well as contributions from its gaggle of young pitchers–Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint, and Kyle Wright, among others. Meanwhile, in Miami, expectations are low. The trade of J.T. Realmuto is the latest in a series of trades that have gutted the major-league roster over the last two years. Other casualties of the offseason include Derek Dietrich, Nick Wittgren, and the aforementioned Barraclough. And while the club has made canny signings of Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker, the focus in Miami is firmly on the future. Although a growing crop of farmhands may make the Marlins a real threat in the 2020s, fans should prepare for another season in the cellar of the NL East.
(poll link for mobile users)
Which of the NL East teams is best positioned to win the division in 2019?
-
Atlanta Braves 30% (7,323)
-
Philadelphia Phillies 27% (6,643)
-
Washington Nationals 25% (5,956)
-
New York Mets 16% (3,819)
-
Miami Marlins 2% (545)
Total votes: 24,286
Phillies Acquire J.T. Realmuto
2:15pm: The Phillies have announced the trade, acquiring Realmuto in exchange for Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and international funds. It seems, then, that the bonus money was the fourth component of the deal, rather than an additional minor league talent.
1:30pm: One of the winter’s biggest storylines has finally drawn to a close, as the Phillies and Marlins have agreed to a deal that will send star catcher J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter links). A four-player package will go to Miami in return, headlined by young backstop Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez. Southpaw Will Stewart is one of the other pieces in the deal. The Marlins also acquire an international signing slot worth $250K, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links).
The course of negotiations surrounding Realmuto took many twists and turns. At various times, it seemed he’d end up at a variety of different teams, with the Dodgers, Padres, Reds, Braves and Astros all rumored to be involved to varying extents. Ultimately, the Phillies emerged late as the winning suitor, with their willingness to include Sanchez, one of the game’s top-ranked pitching prospects, seemingly pushing things over the finish line.
With the move, the Phils will add two seasons of Realmuto, a player who has established himself as the game’s best backstop. He’s earning just $5.9MM in 2019 with one more season of arbitration eligibility still remaining. It’s certainly possible that the Phils will pursue extension talks with the 27-year-old, though there is no indication that the possibility of a long-term contract is an element of today’s transaction.
Some may wonder whether this represents an alternative to the Phils’ longstanding pursuit of top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Odds are, it only enhances the odds of such a major outlay. Parting with the years of cheap control over Alfaro and the upside of the two pitchers clearly positions the Phillies as a win-now club. And Realmuto is an affordable piece who won’t remotely clog the still-wide-open current and future Philadelphia balance sheets. His addition only further underscores the Phillies’ desire to win, which one would figure to be an appealing trait for either Machado or Harper. Of course, both are still expected to go to the highest bidder, but Philadelphia’s aggressive commitment to winning this offseason could be a tipping point in its favor should either top free agent be weighing similar offers from the Phillies and another suitor.
Future maneuverings aside, Realmuto himself provides a significant boost to the Phillies’ 2019 playoff chances. The 27-year-old missed the first few weeks of the 2018 campaign due to a minor back injury but came storming back with a terrific .277/.340/.484 batting line, 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto’s OPS+ (which is adjusted for home park and league) checked in at 139 — effectively indicating that he was 39 percent better than a league-average hitter. That’s all the more impressive when considering that catchers, on the whole, were about 10 to 15 percent less effective than a league-average bat. Put simply — there are few, if any catchers in baseball who could upgrade a lineup more than Realmuto.
Defensively speaking, Realmuto is solid across the board. He’s thrown out would-be base thieves at a 35 percent clip across the past three seasons and has turned in average or better pitch-blocking marks, per Baseball Prospectus, throughout his career. While Realmuto’s framing efforts graded out poorly early in his big league tenure, he drew above-average marks in 2017 and average marks last season, so the Phillies can likely expect at least average output in that regard. Realmuto isn’t the framer that Alfaro was in 2018, but he’s a better blocker, and it’s not unreasonable to think that he could be a three- or four-win upgrade over Alfaro on his own.
As one would expect for a player of Realmuto’s caliber, the cost of acquisition was hardly cheap. Alfaro will step directly into the Marlins’ lineup as the team’s primary new backstop. While his bat is a work in progress, his framing in 2018 was excellent, and scouting reports on him as a prospect often pegged him with an 80-grade arm (top of the 20-80 scale).
Alfaro hit .262/.324/.407 with 10 homers in 377 PAs last season, but there’s reason to doubt his ability to replicate that output. Specifically, Alfaro whiffed in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances and benefited from an eye-popping (and clearly unsustainable) .406 average on balls in play. The 25-year-old will need to improve on his contact skills if he’s to carve out a career as a regular, but the tools he possesses are undeniably enticing — particularly for a rebuilding club like Miami.
Sanchez, meanwhile, has rated among the game’s top pitching prospects for the past couple of seasons thanks to a triple-digit fastball and the potential for three average or better secondary offerings. The biggest question with him is health, as the righty was limited to 46 2/3 innings last season thanks to arm troubles (though none that required surgery). Sanchez reached the Class-A Advanced Florida State League as a 19-year-old last year — making him about four years younger than the average player in that league. Despite facing more advanced and experienced hitters, Sanchez pitched to a pristine 2.51 ERA with a terrific 45-to-11 K/BB ratio and a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate in those 46 2/3 frames when healthy. He’s likely at least a year away from MLB readiness, but he’ll immediately become not just the most highly regarded pitcher in the Marlins organization but their clear-cut top prospect.
The addition of Stewart, 21, isn’t a throwaway note for the Marlins, either. A 20th-round pick back in 2015, the lefty has elevated his status with a strong showing to this point in his pro career and was ranked 18th among Phillies farmhands by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs just last month. Stewart was two years younger than his average opponent in Class-A last season but nonetheless worked to a 2.06 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a sensational 62.9 percent ground-ball rate in 113 2/3 innings as a starter. His sinker is complemented by a trio of potentially average offerings, and his significantly improved walk rate in ’18 is reason for further encouragement. The ceiling on Stewart is certainly lower than on Sanchez, but as ground-ball oriented pitcher with solid control, he could function as a nice back-of-the-rotation piece in the Marlins’ spacious home park if all pans out well.
In all, the Marlins have certainly positioned themselves to come away from the trade with a fair bit of value. While there’s certainly risk to the assets which they acquired — as is the case when trading any star player for unproven talent — Alfaro was long one of the game’s top catching prospects before debuting, and the most optimistic scouting reports on Sanchez peg him as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. It’s feasible that by mid-to-late 2020, both could be on the Marlins’ big league roster, and the addition of a solid arm such as Stewart, even if he’s more “high floor” than “high ceiling,” deepens the farm and presents another potential rotation piece.
The Phillies traded a pair of high-upside players, Alfaro and Sanchez, who could prove to be dynamic pieces for a division rival down the line but did so at a time when the NL East could legitimately be seized by any of the division’s top four teams. Realmuto will join new additions Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen alongside holdover Rhys Hoskins in the top portion of the Phillies’ lineup, and with the potential addition of Harper or Machado looming, his presence should be a key element in a dramatically improved lineup. The Phillies are aggressively looking to atone for last season’s late collapse, and the moves they’ve made, to date, seem quite likely to help the organization achieve that goal.