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NL East Notes: Braves, Lile, McNeil, Garrett, Rogers

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Because Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc., is a publicly-traded company, their obligatory financial reports provide an annual peek into the Braves’ business dealings, and Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shared the details of the company’s disclosure earlier this week.  ABH Inc. reported $641MM in revenue in 2023 from the Braves and the associated ballpark village next to Truist Park known as The Battery Atlanta — this figure represents a sizable jump from the $589MM in revenues from 20222.  Between Truist Park’s opening in 2017 and the success of the Battery as an attraction outside of just Braves gamedays, the Braves have seen revenues soar from $262MM in 2016 to last year’s $641MM number, with only a dip in 2020 due to the pandemic.

However, ABH Inc. still reported an overall operating loss of $46MM for 2023.  As per the team statement, baseball-related operating costs “increased primarily due to higher player salaries, including offseason trade activity in the fourth quarter, as well as increases under MLB’s revenue sharing plan.”  The operating profit for 2023 stood at $38MM, but dropped into the red due to $13MM drops for stock-based compensation and $71MM in depreciation and amortization.  (Tucker notes that “large deductions for depreciation and amortization are believed to be common for MLB teams.”)

The revenue increase has gone hand-in-hand with a big increase in the Braves’ payroll, as Atlanta is set to far exceed its club-record $205MM payroll from 2023.  The Braves are currently projected (as per RosterResource) for a payroll close to $228MM and a luxury tax number of $270MM.  After paying into the tax for the first time last season, the Braves have now gone well beyond the initial CBT threshold, as their projected $270.3MM tax number is now approaching the third penalization tier of $277MM.  The front office’s aggressive strategy of locking up star players to extensions has both increased spending but also built a powerhouse team that is expected to again contend for a World Series title.

Some more items from around the NL East…

  • Nationals outfield prospect Daylen Lile was stretchered off the field in a scary incident in today’s Spring Training game.  While attempting to catch a home run, Lile went over the right field fence and took a bad landing, drawing immediate calls for medical attention from Red Sox pitchers in the bullpen.  Lile reportedly gave a thumbs up while being removed from the field, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the 21-year-old Lile missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best prospect in Washington’s farm system. [UPDATE: Manager Davey Martinez told Janes and other reporters that Lile will undergo a CAT scan.  Lile apparently landed hard on his lower back after his fall, but was able to move his feet.]
  • Jeff McNeil is dealing with some left biceps soreness and won’t hit for a few days, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post).  McNeil is still able to participate in fielding drills since he throws with his right arm, though his left arm continues to be a concern given how McNeil has a partially torn left UCL.  The thought was that McNeil would be fine after an offseason of recovery rather than surgery, and a biceps issue doesn’t necessarily hint at any further UCL damage.  The former NL batting champion and two-time All-Star is looking to bounce back from an underwhelming .270/.333/.378 slash line over 648 plate appearances in 2023.
  • Marlins manager Skip Schumaker provided media (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson and MLB.com) with some updates on starters Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers.  Garrett has been dealing with soreness in his left shoulder for a couple of weeks but has been throwing bullpen sessions and is on “normal progression now” towards throwing a live batting practice, Schumaker said.  Rogers is tentatively scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut in a 20-pitch outing on Tuesday, as the Marlins have been building him slowly in camp in the aftermath of an injury-riddled 2023 season.  Rogers threw a live batting practice session on Thursday that left Schumaker impressed, as the southpaw “was throwing 93-94 mph in a setting with not much adrenaline.”

Marlins Sign Tim Anderson

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TODAY: The Marlins have officially announced Anderson’s signing.  Sandy Alcantara (who will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery) was placed on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot for Anderson.

FEBRUARY 22: The Marlins and free agent shortstop Tim Anderson are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical. Anderson is repped by Excel Sports Management.

Anderson, 30, was arguably the best shortstop in a very weak middle infield class. A two-time All-Star and 2019 batting champ, he looked like one of the better shortstops in the majors as recently as a season ago. He’s coming off the worst year of his career, though, as he struggled to a .245/.286/.296 batting line in 524 plate appearances. Anderson connected on just one home run.

While his offensive profile has never been driven primarily by power, he reached double digits in homers each year between 2017-21. That dropped to six homers in a 2022 season cut short by a ligament tear in his left middle finger, although he still managed a .301/.339/.395 slash. His entire offensive profile plummeted last season.

Anderson struck out in 23.3% of his plate appearances, his highest rate since 2018. He put more than three-fifths of his batted balls on the ground, a personal-high clip. That led to his worst average and on-base marks since 2018 in addition to the lowest power production of his career.

That led the White Sox to buy Anderson out for $1MM in lieu of a $14MM club option, ending a strong eight-year run on Chicago’s South Side. General manager Chris Getz has kicked off at least an abbreviated rebuild, bringing in Paul DeJong on a modest $1.75MM free agent deal to solidify the defense.

Anderson has increasingly struggled on that side of the ball as well. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved, he has rated a combined 23 runs below average over the past two seasons. Only Bobby Witt Jr. has a lower total at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric hasn’t been nearly as bearish, grading Anderson slightly below par in both years. It’s possible that lower body injuries have played a role in that downturn. Over the past three seasons, he has missed time with a left hamstring strain, a right groin strain, and a sprained left knee (in addition to the aforementioned finger injury).

The veteran infielder expressed a willingness to move to the other side of the second base bag. That won’t be necessary in Miami, which has sought shortstop help throughout the winter. The Fish let Joey Wendle depart after a lackluster 2023 campaign. Jon Berti is best suited in a utility role, while none of Xavier Edwards, Jacob Amaya or Vidal Bruján is established at the MLB level.

Miami has a two-time batting champ, Luis Arraez, at the keystone. The up-the-middle pairing of Anderson and Arraez isn’t likely to be a great defensive group, but there’s significant offensive upside if Anderson rebounds. Between 2019-22, Anderson had an excellent .318/.347/.473 line in more than 1600 trips to the plate. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances over the past five seasons, he’s still third in batting average. Arraez leads the way at .326, while only Freddie Freeman (.315) also stands above Anderson, who has hit .300 since 2019.

It’s a fairly inexpensive pickup for the Fish on what is remarkably their first major league free agent deal of the offseason. That means it’s also the first MLB contract for new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, who has presided over a quiet winter in South Florida. Ever present payroll constraints contributed to Miami’s decision to let Jorge Soler walk after a 36-homer season. They haven’t replaced Soler at DH or addressed the rotation in response to Sandy Alcantara’s Tommy John surgery, but Anderson brings a higher ceiling than last year’s collection of shortstops.

Roster Resource calculates the team’s player payroll around $100MM. That’s above last season’s approximate $93MM season-opening mark but still places them firmly in the league’s bottom third in spending. Miami will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move once the signing is finalized, but that’ll likely be accomplished by placing Alcantara on the 60-day injured list.

If Anderson returns to form, he’ll have a shot at a better multi-year deal a year from now. He’ll return to free agency next winter in advance of his age-32 season. Willy Adames headlines what otherwise looks like another weak group of free agent shortstops. Gleyber Torres will be the top second baseman, while Anderson and Amed Rosario (who signed a $1.5MM deal with Tampa Bay this week) are the most interesting rebound candidates.

Marlins, Vladimir Gutierrez Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Marlins are in agreement with right-hander Vladimir Gutiérrez on a minor league deal, reports Francys Romero (X link). He’ll be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Gutiérrez joins the second organization of his career. The Cuban hurler was a high-profile international signee by the Reds back in 2016. Cincinnati paid a hefty $4.75MM for his services. Gutiérrez was just 21 at the time and began his affiliated stint in High-A. His prospect stock dimmed over the next couple seasons as he struggled at the higher levels of the minors.

Cincinnati nevertheless called Gutiérrez to the big leagues in 2021. He held a spot in the rotation for the majority of that season, starting 22 games and logging 114 innings. Gutiérrez allowed 4.74 earned runs per nine innings while striking out a below-average 17.7% of opposing hitters. He started eight of 10 appearances the following year and was tagged for a 7.61 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.

In early June, the Reds placed Gutiérrez on the injured list with forearm soreness. That often ominous diagnosis predated a Tommy John procedure the following month. He spent the remainder of that year and almost all of 2023 on the injured list. Gutiérrez logged 6 1/3 minor league innings late last season but didn’t return to the big leagues. The Reds placed him on waivers at the start of the offseason, sending him to free agency.

Now that he has put the surgery behind him, Gutiérrez profiles as rotation or long relief depth for the Fish. Miami hasn’t done much to address a rotation that lost Sandy Alcántara to Tommy John surgery last October. They acquired Darren McCaughan in a small trade with Seattle and have brought in Matt Andriese, Yonny Chirinos and Kyle Tyler on non-roster deals.

NL East Notes: Garrett, Wheeler, Robles, Matzek

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The Marlins kicked off Spring Training with a potential injury scare in the rotation, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays that, per manager Skip Schumaker, southpaw Braxton Garrett is dealing with “general soreness” in his left shoulder. While shoulder injuries are among the more concerning ailments for pitchers, Schumaker made clear that Garrett hasn’t been shut down at this point with the club instead planning to “push back” the start to Garrett’s spring “until he feels better.” McPherson adds that Garrett continued to play catch late last week.

Garrett, 26, has quietly broken out as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Marlins over the past two seasons. In 48 appearances (47 starts) since the start of the 2022 season, Garrett has posted an impressive 3.63 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.64 FIP across 247 2/3 innings of work. During that time, the lefty has struck out a respectable 23.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. The youngster’s strong peripheral numbers are rounded out by his ability to generate grounders, which he has done at an above-average 48.7% clip over the past two years. With Sandy Alcantara set to miss the entire 2024 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Garrett figures to slot in toward the front of the Miami rotation this season alongside the likes of Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez.

With Garrett’s health uncertain entering camp, it’s fair to wonder what impact his status may have on the club’s trade talks regarding members of their rotation. The Marlins have long been known to be listening on their controllable starting pitching in hopes of addressing other areas of their roster, with Luzardo receiving attention from the likes of the Orioles and Dodgers while the Pirates have also reportedly shown interesting in the club’s available rotation arms. While it’s unclear what impact, if any, Garrett’s current shoulder issue would have on his availability in trade, it’s possible the Marlins may be more hesitant to shop any of their starting options until they have more certainty on Garrett’s status. After all, a hypothetical trade of Luzardo would leave the Marlins with only Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers as surefire starting options entering the 2024 season if Garrett were to require time on the injured list.

More from the NL East…

  • The Phillies have long been hoping to extend veteran ace Zack Wheeler, and comments from Wheeler himself last week indicated that the sides have opened extension talks with Spring Training now underway. While Wheeler indicated that he’s open to negotiating even once the season begins, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that while extending Wheeler is a “priority” for the club, his preference is for the sides to come together on a deal before the regular season begins. Wheeler has established himself as one of the league’s premiere starters since first suiting up for the Phillies during the shortened 2020 campaign. During his time in Philadelphia, the right-hander has pitched to an excellent 3.06 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in 101 starts during the regular season and has augmented that resume with an incredible 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 postseason innings.
  • Victor Robles has patrolled center field for the Nationals on a regular basis ever since his rookie season back in 2019, though it’s possible that could change entering the 2024 season. As relayed by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, manager Dave Martinez told reporters recently that there will be a “battle” between Robles and 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young for the starting center field job, though Martinez added that Robles has “a little bit of an upper hand” coming into camp. Robles has largely been a plus-glove center fielder with below average offense throughout his career, though in 2023 he appeared to flash more offensive upside as he slashed a solid .299/.385/.364. Unfortunately, that slash line came across just 126 trips to the plate as Robles spent most of the year on the injured list due to back injuries. Young, meanwhile, held his own in a 33-game cup of coffee in the majors last year with a decent .252/.322/.336 slash line in 122 trips to the plate.
  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that he’s feeling good entering Spring Training and hopes to be ready for Opening Day, though he didn’t rule out a possible IL stint to open the season if he needs time to finish preparing to retake the mound. The 33-year-old’s return to the mound figures to provide a significant boost to Atlanta’s relief corps, as Matzek pitched to strong results over three seasons with the Braves prior to the injury. In 132 combined appearances, the southpaw posted a 2.92 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work as he struck out 27.4% of batters faced.

Tanner Scott Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Left-hander Tanner Scott won his arbitration hearing with the Marlins, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).  The Marlins were looking to pay Scott $5.15MM in 2023, but the reliever will instead earn his desired figure of $5.7MM.

The salary checks in just slightly under the $5.8MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Scott, but it’s still a very nice raise for the southpaw in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Scott avoided arbitration in his first two winters of eligibility, and his $5.7MM salary is more than double the $2.825MM he earned in 2023.

The payday comes in the wake of the best season of Scott’s seven-year MLB career.  The lefty posted a 2.31 ERA over 78 innings for Miami, and only four pitchers topped Scott’s total of 74 appearances.  Beyond the durability, Scott’s Statcast page is a veritable sea of red, as he ranked in at least the 90th percentile of almost every major statistical category.  The eye-popping numbers included a 33.9% strikeout rate, 26.3% hard-hit ball rate, and 35.3% chase rate that all ranked among the league’s elite.

Scott’s 7.8% walk rate was modest in comparison, sitting at “only” the 60th percentile of all pitchers.  Yet this stat was perhaps the key element to Scott’s success, given how control problems have plagued his career — Scott had a career 14.2% walk rate prior to his greatly improved 7.8BB% last season.  Pundits and scouts have long felt that Scott had elite potential if he could ever harness his stuff, and 2023 is a very promising sign that Scott has now turned the corner at age 29.

Scott moved into the closer’s job down the stretch for Miami and looks to assume that same role heading into the coming season.  Since he is set to hit free agency next winter, Scott stands out as a potential trade chip if the Marlins aren’t in contention by the deadline.  There was even some speculative trade buzz around Scott this winter given the Marlins’ surplus of left-handed relievers, though the Fish already moved another southpaw last week when Steven Okert was dealt to the Twins for Nick Gordon.

Scott’s case was the final pending arbitration hearing of the 2023-24 offseason, and the players emerged with a winning record from this year’s slate of hearings.  Players won nine of the 15 cases that went to arbitration.

Marlins Made Recent Offer To Tim Anderson

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The Marlins recently made an offer to free-agent infielder Tim Anderson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Miami has been on the lookout for help at shortstop throughout the offseason. Their interest in Anderson isn’t a new revelation, but the fact that they just recently put forth an offer is certainly of note.

The 30-year-old Anderson became a free agent back in November when the White Sox declined a $14MM club option. That would’ve seemed unthinkable a year prior, as Anderson was one of the game’s top-hitting middle infielders from 2019-22. During that time, he led all qualified big leaguers in batting average and turned in an overall .318/.347/.473 line in more than 1600 plate appearances.

Fortunes can change quickly, however, and Anderson’s 2023 season was nothing short of calamitous. His average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage somehow all clocked in south of .300; his overall .245/.286/.296 slash and one home run rendered him one of baseball’s least-productive hitters. Anderson saw his exit velocity and hard-hit rate both drop, but the larger issue may have been a sky-high 61.1% ground-ball rate — a jump of nearly 10 percentage points over the 52% mark he’d posted in his career prior to the 2023 campaign. No matter how fast a player may or may not be, it’s difficult to be productive when close to two-thirds of batted balls are hammered into the ground.

On that note, it bears mentioning that Anderson’s speed took a notable hit in 2023. It’s not uncommon for players to lose a step as they enter their 30s, but Anderson’s downturn could well be due to injury. Anderson missed nearly a month early in the 2023 season due to a left knee strain, and the fact that his average sprint speed (per Statcast) dropped by about a full foot per second seems likely to be related. He’d sat between 28 ft/sec and 28.7 ft/sec every season of his career prior to 2023, never ranking lower than the 74th percentile of MLB position players. In 2023, he averaged 27.2 ft/sec and clocked into just the 45th percentile. He still went 13-for-15 in stolen base attempts, but Anderson has always been deft in that regard, evidenced by a career 81.3% success rate.

On what would presumably be a one-year contract, Anderson is a sensible buy-low candidate for a team in need of middle infield help. The Marlins fit that bill and could certainly stand to improve the lineup — which a healthier Anderson could well achieve — but the Miami defense is already quite suspect, which makes Anderson a less optimal fit. With Jake Burger at the hot corner, Luis Arraez at second base and Josh Bell at first base, the Fish already have three questionable infield defenders. Defensive metrics have panned Anderson’s glovework at shortstop for the past two years — making it harder to blame any shortcomings on last year’s injury. Questions about his defense were substantial enough that Anderson voiced a willingness to shift to second base following the ’23 season.

Presumably, that wouldn’t be necessary in Miami, although the Marlins could conceivably shift Arraez to first base and deploy Bell more as the designated hitter. Before trading Arraez to the Marlins, the Twins utilized him more at first base than at second base due to concerns about his defense and his history of knee troubles. Such an alignment could improve the overall defensive outlook of the team, though it would leave the Marlins with the same hole at shortstop they’re currently looking to fill.

It’s not clear how much the Marlins have to spend. Miami is the only team in baseball that has not signed a free agent to a big league contract this winter. They’ve effectively sat out that portion of the market, instead operating only in minor league deals and small trades around the fringes of the roster. Catcher Christian Bethancourt and utilitymen Nick Gordon and Vidal Brujan — all acquired via trade — are the only new additions to the roster so far. Miami has also added veterans like Curt Casali, Trey Mancini, Yonny Chirinos and Matt Andriese on minor league deals.

Angels Showing Interest In Amed Rosario

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The Angels are showing interest in free agents Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernández as they continue their search for infield depth, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tied the Halos to Hernández last month. They hadn’t been directly linked to Rosario before this point.

Rosario is coming off a pedestrian season split between the Guardians and Dodgers. The right-handed middle infielder hit .263/.305/.378 with six homers and 15 steals through 545 combined plate appearances. His power production ticked up a bit after the trade as the Dodgers more frequently leveraged him against lefty pitching. His .256/.301/.408 slash in 48 games was still a bit below average, though. Los Angeles left him off their playoff roster.

The former top prospect had posted roughly average numbers for Cleveland over the preceding two seasons. A durable fixture in the lineup at shortstop, he combined for a .282/.316/.406 slash between 2021-22. Rosario has always been an aggressive hitter who doesn’t hit for much power. His plus contact skills have contributed to three seasons batting above .280, giving him a decent offensive floor.

Where Rosario fits defensively is a bigger question. Public metrics have never looked kindly on his glove. His grades were especially poor in the first half of last season. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved rated him between 11 and 16 runs worse than an average shortstop in fewer than 800 innings with the Guardians. The Dodgers used him more frequently at second base, his first MLB action on the right side of the infield, down the stretch.

Despite the mediocre platform year, Rosario is one of the better middle infielders available in a thin free agent class. He drew some interest from the Blue Jays and Red Sox early in the winter before those teams added other righty-hitting infielders (Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Vaughn Grissom, respectively).

More recently, Rosario was among a handful of shortstop possibilities tied to the Marlins. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this morning that Miami has shown more significant interest in Rosario and Gio Urshela than they have in other reported candidates like Tim Anderson, Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi.

While Miami has a path to everyday reps at shortstop, the Halos would likely view Rosario as multi-positional insurance. The Halos have second-year player Zach Neto penciled in at shortstop. Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo could split time between second and third base. Rendon hasn’t reached 60 starts at the hot corner in a season since 2019. Rengifo is a fringe defender who underwent season-ending biceps surgery last September. The Halos haven’t replaced Urshela, who served as a righty-hitting versatile infielder before a pelvis fracture last season.

Owner Arte Moreno said this week that he didn’t anticipate matching last year’s spending level. A run at Rosario should nevertheless be well within range financially. The 28-year-old is looking at a one- or two-year contract. Roster Resource calculates the club’s projected payroll around $173MM. They opened last season with approximately $212MM in player commitments.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Jesús Luzardo

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The starting pitchers of the Marlins have been popular in trade rumors and the Orioles showed the most interest in left-hander Jesús Luzardo, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s unclear exactly when the trade talks took place.

The Orioles have been looking for starting pitching all offseason so it’s logical that they would check in with Miami. The O’s were connected to trade candidates like Dylan Cease and free agents like Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton before landing a big fish when they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

From the perspective of the Marlins, they don’t quite have the overflowing rotation surplus that they have had in the past, but it makes sense to listen to offers since they have holes elsewhere on the roster that need to be addressed. Catcher and shortstop are those spots that could clearly be upgraded but free agency doesn’t have many enticing options, so perhaps moving a starter would be their best bet even if the depth isn’t quite what it was.

They traded Pablo López to the Twins last winter as part of the return for Luis Arráez and then Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, they traded prospect Jake Eder to the White Sox for Jake Burger, thinning out the depth a bit.

After all that, the club’s rotation mix currently consists of Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, with Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers and Meyer are some of the other options on the roster.

That group has its question marks. Cabrera gets tons of strikeouts and ground balls but has also walked 14% of batters faced in his career. He’s now out of options and can no longer be sent to the minors to continue refining his command. Rogers was great in 2021 but his results backed up in 2022 and then he was limited by injuries in 2023. He made four April starts last year before going on the injured list due to a left biceps strain, later being diagnosed with a partial tear in his right lat, never making it back to the club. Sánchez has thrown just one minor league inning over the past three years due to ongoing shoulder problems. Weathers had poor results last year while Meyer missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are reportedly setting a high asking price in trade talks concerning Luzardo, which is a sensible position to take. With that group of starters, they don’t strictly need to move someone since it’s arguably flimsy as it is. Luzardo is also under club control through the 2026 season, meaning the club needn’t be in any kind of hurry. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more arbitration raises in the seasons to come. That’s a bargain price for a guy who made 50 starts over the past two years with a 3.48 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate.

Cabrera and Rogers have also received some trade interest, but the asking price on them would naturally be lower on account of the Cabrera’s control problems and Rogers’ injury issues. Jackson and Mish add that the Marlins and Royals had talks about some kind of blockbuster involving Pérez and Bobby Witt Jr. but those talks quickly fizzled out. Those talks were towards the end of last season, while Kim Ng was still running the baseball operations department. Jackson and Mish report that the new regime, led by Peter Bendix, considers Pérez untouchable.

But with the holes elsewhere on the roster, there would be an argument for taking the right deal. The Marlins reportedly asked about catching prospect Samuel Basallo in trade talks with the Orioles, but the O’s had no interest in making him available. Part of Baltimore’s never-ending parade of elite prospects, Basallo is currently ranked 10th in the league by Baseball America and 7th by FanGraphs.

The Marlins currently have a catching tandem of Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes. Both are fairly well regarded on defense but don’t provide a lot with the bat. Bethancourt hit .231/.261/.361 last year and Fortes just .204/.263/.299. The 19-year-old Basallo would be more of a long-term solution there, as he only has four games above High-A and is unlikely to crack the majors for much of 2024, if at all.

The Orioles could also theoretically stand to part with Basallo since they already have a cornerstone catcher in Adley Rutschman, but that doesn’t seem like it will motivate them towards a deal. They also have a surplus of young talent on the infield and outfield but have generally held onto the majority of it, apart from including Joey Ortiz in the Burnes deal. They still seem to have too many players for the playing time they have to distribute but appear to be quite patient in letting moves come together.

As mentioned, it’s unclear exactly when the talks regarding Luzardo took place. Presumably, they were before the Burnes deal, but there would have been an argument for the O’s to still be pursuing rotation upgrades even after that. After that trade, the rotation projected to be Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and John Means. That’s a talented group but Rodriguez was inconsistent as a rookie last year while Means just returned from a lengthy Tommy John layoff. Adding Luzardo into that group would have been a viable path for the O’s to take, so it’s possible the talks happened post-Burnes, even if they didn’t make much headway.

It’s possible that their desire to get a deal done may have increased this week, however. It was reported today that Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, raising the spectre of Tommy John surgery. It’s still not determined if he will need to go under the knife but he will at least start the season on the injured list. Additionally, Means is about a month behind schedule due to an elbow issue he dealt with last year.

With two-fifths of their projected starting rotation now questionable, perhaps the O’s will circle back to the Marlins and reopen these talks at some point. Though the free agent market also still features notable names like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Meanwhile, Cease is still on the White Sox while other trade candidates like Shane Bieber or Paul Blackburn could still be available. Even after the Burnes trade, the O’s are still considered to have an excellent farm system and could pull off just about any trade they decide to make if they really wanted.

Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Luis Arráez

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Arbiters have ruled in favor of the Marlins in their arbitration hearing with infielder Luis Arráez, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. He’ll make a salary of $10.6MM this year as opposed to the $12MM he was seeking.

Arráez, 27 in April, is the best contact hitter in the game. Last year, he struck out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the best rate in the majors. Jeff McNeil of the Mets was second among qualified hitters at 10%. Arráez flirted with .400 for a while but ultimately finished the season with a batting average of “only” .354. Again, that was easily the best in the majors, with Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. second at .337.

The other parts of his game are a bit less impressive. He’s never been a huge power threat, with last year’s 10 home runs a new personal best. His second base defense is also questionable. Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be four better than par last year but Outs Above Average had him at a dismal -10. But thanks largely to his bat, FanGraphs considered him to be 3.4 wins above replacement on the year with Baseball Reference at 4.9.

He first qualified for arbitration going into 2022 as a Super Two player, then with the Twins. He and that club avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.125MM salary. He and the Twins didn’t agree to a 2023 salary prior to that year’s deadline but he was traded to the Marlins prior to the hearing. He ended up beating the Fish in that case, earning $6.1MM last year instead of the $5MM filing figure.

Going into the 2023-24 offseason, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $10.8MM salary this year. The club and the player’s camp filed on either side of that figure, but arbiters have to choose one figure or the other and can’t choose a middle ground number, siding with the Marlins this time. Arráez will be eligible for one more pass through arbitration for his 2025 salary, after which he’s slated to become a free agent.

Pirates Still Discussing Rotation Trades With Marlins, Exploring Free Agency

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The Pirates have added Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales to their rotation this winter but remain in active pursuit of at least one more starter, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs are in ongoing trade discussions with multiple clubs, including the Marlins, and are still showing interest in various free agents, per Mackey. FanSided’s Robert Murray also wrote this morning, after the Bucs signed Josh Fleming, that Pittsburgh is still active on both the trade and free agent markets.

Miami has reportedly entertained interest in starters Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett at various points this offseason. Ballyhooed right-hander Eury Perez, who impressed with a 3.15 ERA through 91 1/3 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023, is widely considered to be off limits.

Of the other Miami arms, Cabrera has generally been considered the “most” available. The 6’5″ 25-year-old is a former top-tier prospect himself but has dealt with command troubles through his first year-plus of big league service time and has not yet as established as the other three hurlers in question. Mackey indeed suggests that Cabrera is the likeliest target, reporting that a deal between the Bucs and the Fish would likely include an infielder such as Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae.

Each of those three have varying levels of trade value themselves. Peguero has garnered the most prospect fanfare of the group but struggled in a 59-game MLB debut last year, hitting .237/.280/.374 in 213 plate appearances. Gonzales is a former No. 7 overall pick and top-100 prospect, but Baseball America now lists him ninth among Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Bae is another once-well-regarded prospect but exhausted his rookie eligibility last year with a tepid .231/.296/.311 showing through 371 plate appearances. All three are middle infielders, though Gonzales and Bae are considered limited to second base (and, in Bae’s case, the outfield).

Any member of that trio would figure to be just one of several pieces going to Miami, should a deal come together. Though Cabrera himself has some questions about his lackluster command, he’s still performed far better in the majors than any of those Pittsburgh infielders, and controllable young pitching is typically the most difficult type of asset to acquire.

Since making his big league debut in 2021, Cabrera has pitched 197 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball. That includes a rocky debut that lasted just 26 1/3 frames in ’21, however. Over the past two seasons, he sports a more encouraging 3.73 mark in 171 1/3 frames. Cabrera has averaged better than 96 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 26.6% of his opponents and induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. Still, fielding-independent metrics are a bit more bearish on him than ERA due to his 13.7% walk rate. In that same 2022-23 window, Cabrera sports a 4.50 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

If Cabrera can improve his command at all, he has the makings of a clear big league starter. His fastball and changeup give him a pair of above-average to plus offerings, with the change in particular befuddling lefties and thus mitigating typical platoon issues. Southpaws have flailed away at the pitch and produced a hapless .184/.291/.315 batting line in 433 plate appearances against Cabrera. Because his slider hasn’t been as consistently effective, Cabrera has struggled against right-handed opponents. They’ve hit just .231 against him but posted a huge .376 OBP and slugged .422.

Cabrera’s 1.147 years of big league service time put him on track to be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter. That’d make him arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but he’s under club control through the 2028 season regardless.

Beyond their interest in Miami’s starters, the Pirates have seen free agents Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard throw recently, per Mackey. Either figures to be available on a low-cost deal, and it seems entirely feasible that the Pirates could both trade for a pre-arb starter who won’t alter their payroll and still add another low-cost rotation piece on a one-year deal. Other veterans still on the market –beyond top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who are surely out of Pittsburgh’s price range — include Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Mike Clevinger and Eric Lauer.

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