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Luis Arraez Open To Extension With Marlins

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Infielder Luis Arraez spoke today to Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, saying that he has not had any extension talks with the Marlins, though he would be open to the idea if they approached him. “They haven’t talked to me about an extension, but if they do, I’m available,” he said. “I love Miami, I love my teammates. I feel at home when I play with those guys.”

Arraez, 27 in April, came over to the Marlins from the Twins in a trade prior to 2023. His first season with Miami saw him produce in fairly similar fashion to his time in Minnesota, as a high-contact bat that’s extremely tough to strike out. He was punched out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the lowest among qualified hitters, as Jeff McNeil was second at 10%. Arraez flirted with .400 for a while but his batting average eventually finished at a still-excellent .354. He added 10 home runs and his total offensive contributions translated to a wRC+ of 132, indicating he was 32% better than the league average hitter.

He’s generally not considered as gifted on his defense as he is with a bat in his hands. At his primary position of second base, he’s been graded as worth two Defensive Runs Saved in his career and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at almost exactly league average. Outs Above Average, however, isn’t enthused at all. Arraez is currently at -25 OAA in his career, with a tally of -10 in 2023 alone. The Twins had moved him off that spot and into a first base role prior to the trade but the Marlins put him back at the keystone this year.

Perhaps the Fish will move Arraez to first base down the line, but he fits better at second for the time being. First baseman Josh Bell triggered his player option and will be staying in Miami for one more season, barring a trade. Arraez can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons and could perhaps move over to first after Bell hits free agency a year from now. As a Super Two player, Arraez has already had a couple of passes through arbitration, making $2.125M in 2022 and $6.1MM this year with two more to go. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $10.8MM next year.

Given his unique skill set, finding a perfect comparison for an extension is a bit tricky. McNeil, mentioned above, is a similar contact-over-power player who was between four and five years of service time a year ago when he signed a four-year, $50MM extension with the Mets, $12.5MM average annual value, with a club option for 2027. McNeil wasn’t a Super Two player and had only banked $3MM in his first pass through arb. He was also significantly older, going into his age-31 season, whereas Arraez is only going to be 27 next year. However, McNeil is considered a better all-around player and stronger defender, grading out well at second base, third base and the outfield corners. He had accrued 15.9 wins above replacement at the time of that deal, according to FanGraphs, while Arraez is currently at 10.6. Baseball Reference is a bit kinder to Arraez, 15.2 bWAR, since it uses DRS while FanGraphs uses a hybrid of UZR and OAA.

Arraez should be able to argue for a larger contract than the one McNeil got based on his youth and greater leverage from his Super Two-boosted salary. But on the other hand, if he is destined to move off an up-the-middle position eventually, that will subtract from his appeal and perhaps reduce the willingness of the Marlins to make a long-term investment in him. Arraez reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Twins prior to 2022, though that was presumably far lower than any offer he would receive now. At that point, he was just about to go into arbitration for the first time and was coming off a relative down year in 2021. Since then, he’s had two excellent seasons while banking over $8MM.

If the Marlins do have interest in betting on Arraez for the long term, there is little stopping them at the moment. They don’t generally run high payrolls but also have almost nothing on the books in the future. Sandy Alcantara and Avisaíl García are the only players with contracts for 2025, with that being the last guaranteed year for Garcia.

Jorge Soler Drawing Interest From Multiple Clubs

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Free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler is drawing interest from “around 6 teams,” reports Francys Romero, adding that the Marlins are interested in bringing him back on a multi-year deal.

Soler, 32 in February, is coming off a strong year though his overall career is defined by inconsistency. In 2023, he hit 36 home runs in 137 games while walking in 11.4% of his plate appearances. His 24.3% strikeout rate was slightly above league average but a strong result relative to his own previous seasons. His overall batting line of .250/.341/.512 resulted in a wRC+ of 126. He did most of that damage from the DH slot, only taking the field in 32 games on the year.

That was the best form Soler had shown since late 2021. That year, he hit just .192/.288/.370 for the Royals but then was traded to Atlanta and got in a good groove. He hit .269/.358/.524 in the regular season after the deal and then .242/.342/.606 in the postseason, winning World Series MVP in the process. That led to a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins, with Soler able to opt out after each season.

The first year with Miami didn’t go well, with injuries limiting him to 72 games and a tepid line of .207/.295/.400. He declined his first opt-out chance and returned to the Marlins before getting on track with the aforementioned strong 2023 season. He triggered his second opt-out and is now free to sign with any club, with this year’s market generally light on impact bats. MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents put Soler in the #16 slot with a prediction of three years and $45MM.

There would be risk in giving such a contract to a player like Soler with his oscillating results, but the market conditions should help him out and it’s unsurprising multiple clubs are interested. A return to Miami is sensible from their perspective since they could use his slugging ability. The club had a wRC+ of 94 in the season that just ended, which placed them just outside the bottom 10, and now face the possibility of losing their best power hitter in Soler.

Whether he’s a top priority would be a fair question to ask, however. Neither the shortstop nor catching position provided much for the Marlins in 2023 and those positions stand out as more important targets than corner outfield/designated hitter, where the club has Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and Avisaíl García. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll just under $100MM. Non-tendering a few players in their arbitration class such as Garrett Hampson and Jacob Stallings could knock that down a bit, but they would still be in range of last year’s payroll. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their 2023 Opening Day payroll at $93MM, meaning the Marlins might need a sizeable increase to consider adding Soler, as well as finding solutions to their other weak spots.

Minor 40-Man Moves: Rodríguez, Vázquez, Nance

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It has been an extremely busy day at MLBTR, since today was the deadline for various roster machinations around the league. Free agency, both the major league and minor league variety, kicked off at 4:00 pm Central. That was also the deadline for decisions on various contract options, as well as the deadline for clubs to decide whether to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Those deadlines led to many roster moves, some of which got lost in the shuffle. Here’s a post rounding up some moves that were missed throughout the day.

  • The Rays announced that they added right-hander Manuel Rodríguez to their 40-man roster, preventing him from reaching minor league free agency. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported on the move prior to the official announcement. The 27-year-old was acquired from the Cubs in a trade just before the deadline. He made 34 major league appearances with the Cubs over 2021 and 2022 but spent all of 2023 in the minors. Between the two clubs, he had a 3.99 ERA in 56 1/3 innings on the farm, striking out 32.4% of hitters against a 10.5% walk rate. The club also announced that infielder Tristan Gray, outfielder Raimel Tapia and right-hander Cole Sulser, all of whom were placed on waivers last week, cleared waivers and will become free agents.
  • The Cubs added infielder Luis Vázquez to their 40-man roster, per Meghan Montemurro of Chicago Tribune, to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. The 24-year-old has spent his entire professional career with the Cubs, having been selected by them in the 14th round of the 2017 draft. He split this year between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .271/.361/.456 for a wRC+ of 112. He played the three infield position to the left of first base, giving the club some depth at those positions going forward.
  • The Marlins announced they sent right-hander Tommy Nance outright to Triple-A Jacksonville. The righty had an encouraging season for the Fish in 2022, making 35 appearances with a 4.33 ERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, a shoulder strain kept him on the injured list until August, at which point he was optioned, meaning he didn’t pitch in the majors in 2023. He also finished the year on the IL due to an oblique strain. His 17 innings in the minors resulted in a 1.59 ERA.

Marlins To Exercise Club Option On Jon Berti

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The Marlins are exercising their 2024 club option on utilityman Jon Berti, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’ll be paid a $3.625MM salary next year and will be arbitration-eligible one final time in the 2024-25 offseason before reaching free agency after the ’25 campaign.

Berti, 34 in January, has emerged as a utilityman extraordinaire in Miami, capably fielding three infield spots (second base, third base, shortstop) in addition to frequent work across all three outfield spots. He’s paired that versatility with excellent speed and baserunning value — 91 for his past 111 in steals, including an NL-best 41 in 2022 — and typically average or better production at the dish over the past five seasons.

Dating back to 2019, Berti is a .259/.338/.367 hitter in 1536 plate appearances. That production is weighed down by an off year in 2021, but Berti is fresh off a .294/.334/.405 showing that included a career-best seven home runs in a career-high 424 trips to the plate. He’d have remained arbitration-eligible and under club control through 2025 even if the Marlins had declined the option, but the strength of his 2023 performance likely would’ve ticketed him for a salary greater than the price of this affordable option. The Fish secured this option by agreeing to an eleventh-hour deal with Berti just before his arbitration hearing last offseason, and they’ll now avoid a potential hearing months in advance this time around.

Heading into the ’24 season, it’s unlikely that Berti will be penciled in for regular at-bats at one particular spot on the diamond, but his ability to bounce around in nearly seamless fashion should ensure that he’ll play a prominent role regardless of a nomadic defensive role on the roster. Between Berti, Josh Bell, Avisail Garcia and Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins have just over $41MM in guaranteed money on next year’s books, although a 13-player arbitration class — headlined by Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo and Tanner Scott — leads Roster Resource to project a payroll of more than $99MM.

Marlins Officially Hire Rays GM Peter Bendix As President Of Baseball Operations

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TODAY: The Marlins have officially announced Bendix’s hire. Principal owner Bruce Sherman spoke glowingly of Bendix in a press release, saying that “Peter is an established industry leader with an extensive skillset and deep experience that will continue the momentum we have made on the Major League level, while also strategic building the foundation for sustained success.”

Nov 5: The Marlins are set to hire Rays general manager Peter Bendix as the club’s next head of baseball operations, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough (links to X).  Rosenthal reported earlier tonight that Bendix was Miami’s “leading candidate” for the job, and Bendix has informed some Rays co-workers that he will be leaving for the Marlins job.

Bendix would become the latest in a long line of Tampa Bay executives hired away by other teams.  Andrew Friedman (Dodgers), Chaim Bloom (Red Sox), Matt Arnold (Brewers), and James Click (Astros) all got rival front office jobs due in part to the Rays’ consistent ability to draft and develop talent, all while fielding competitive teams on small player payrolls.  Other organizational attempts to replicate the Rays’ success has been somewhat mixed, though obviously Friedman and Click both won World Series titles with their teams.

The Rays’ track record is undoubtedly of interest to Marlins owner Bruce Sherman, who reportedly hasn’t been happy with how his team has been developing its younger talent.  These concerns led to Sherman’s plan of installing a new head of baseball operations above general manager Kim Ng, which resulted in Ng declining her end of a mutual option on her contract for the 2024 season.  It isn’t known if Bendix or any other candidates were already being targeted by Sherman prior to Ng’s departure, yet naturally Ng balked at the idea of suddenly being demoted after the Marlins reached the playoffs last season.  Rosenthal reports that Bloom was also on the Marlins’ radar, but the former Red Sox chief baseball officer declined to be a candidate for the Miami job.

This will be Bendix’s first time in full command of a front office, as Erik Neander is Tampa’s president of baseball operations, and former PBO Matt Silverman is now the team president.  Bendix has been a member of the Rays organization since starting as an intern in 2009, and worked his way up the ladder through multiple roles in the research and development department.  The 38-year-old Bendix earned a VP title in 2019 as the team’s director of baseball development, and was promoted to general manager just under two years ago.

Sherman’s purchase of the Marlins franchise in 2017 has led to quite a bit of front office turnover in that limited timeframe.  Michael Hill was kept on as the president of baseball operations, though CEO Derek Jeter was known to be making the bigger-picture baseball decisions as the team was going through a rebuild.  Ng was hired to be the GM when Hill’s contract was up after the 2020 season, but the picture was shaken up again when Jeter himself left prior to the 2022 campaign.

Jeter’s public statement that “the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead” only led to more questions, and some reports suggested that Jeter wasn’t pleased with Sherman’s apparent desire to spend less on payroll, though that was apparently far from the only issue between the two.  The Marlins have increased spending to some extent under Ng, up to a $92.5MM Opening Day payroll in 2023 that still ranked 23rd of 30 teams.

However, even with the Marlins securing a wild card berth this past season, Sherman still wasn’t satisfied.  The hiring of Bendix now provides a full break from the Jeter era, and in theory makes it seem as if the Marlins will try to emulate Tampa Bay’s strategy of perpetual contention with modest spending.  This doesn’t mean that Sherman couldn’t green-light higher levels of spending than the Rays are accustomed to, yet it also doesn’t seem like the Marlins will exactly be approaching the luxury tax any time soon.

Adopting “the Rays’ plan” is far easier said that done, of course, and the next step will be seeing exactly how the Marlins will operate under Bendix in 2024.  Sandy Alcantara will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Jorge Soler is a free agent after opting out of his contract, and it can be argued that Miami’s 2023 club might have gotten to the postseason due more to good fortune than to championship pedigree.  The Marlins were outscored by a 723-666 margin, but enjoyed a whopping 33-14 record in one-run games.

As much as Miami fans would be exasperated at seeing another step back or some sort of rebuild, Bendix could be given perhaps at least a season to remake the team in his image, if restocking the farm system is a larger priority for Sherman than another playoff push.  Or, since the Fish already have a good deal of talent in place, Bendix might try to hit the ground running by trying to compete and add some prospect depth at the same time.

From the Rays’ perspective, they’ll have to again fill a hole in their front office.  Assistant GMs Chanda Lawdermilk, Will Cousins, and Carlos Rodriguez stand out as natural candidates to be promoted to the full general manager job as Neander’s new No. 2, though any number of candidates might emerge for a franchise that likes to promote from within.

Marlins Decline Club Options On Johnny Cueto, Matt Barnes

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As expected, the Marlins won’t be picking up their club options on two pitchers.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Johnny Cueto’s $10.5MM option will be bought out for $2.5MM, and Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reports that Matt Barnes’ $9MM option will be bought out for $2.25MM.  (Both links to X.)

Cueto signed a one-year contract worth $8.5MM in guaranteed money last winter, as the Marlins saw the veteran righty as a way to add some experience and depth to an overall young rotation.  Unfortunately, the gambit didn’t pay off, as Cueto posted a 6.02 ERA while tossing only 52 1/3 innings over 13 appearances.  Right biceps tightness sent Cueto to the injured list for over the half the season, and he had a 15-day IL stint due to a viral infection at the end of August.

2024 will be Cueto’s 17th Major League season and his age-38 season, though there hasn’t been any indication that the right-hander is considering retirement.  He’ll probably have to settle for a minor league deal in the wake of his underwhelming year in Miami, but teams are forever in need of pitching, and Cueto will likely get another look to see if he has anything left in the tank.  As recently as 2022, Cueto had a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with the White Sox, so a return to that form might be possible if he can just stay healthy.

Injuries also ruined Barnes’ season, as his 2023 campaign was prematurely ended by a hip surgery in July.  Barnes struggled to a 5.48 ERA in 21 1/3 innings prior to that IL trip.  Though a .348 BABIP and 4.35 SIERA indicated that Barnes was somewhat unlucky, he posted a below-average strikeout rate for the second consecutive season.

Between Barnes’ hip surgery, a shoulder injury in 2022, and generally a lot of up-and-down performance over the last three seasons, it was a pretty easy call for the Marlins to decline the option.  Miami acquired Barnes in a trade with the Red Sox last offseason, and Barnes’ two-year, $18.75MM deal was initially signed with the Sox back in July 2021.  Since Boston covered a good chunk of Barnes’ 2023 salary, it was a relatively risk-free move for the Marlins, especially since Richard Bleier (who went to the Sox in the trade) also didn’t pitch well last year.

Josh Bell Exercises Player Option With Marlins

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Switch-hitting slugger Josh Bell has exercised his player option for the 2024 season, as noted by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. In doing so, Bell has opted to remain with the Marlins, where he figures to be the club’s primary first baseman in 2024, rather than return to the open market this offseason. The Marlins have since announced the news.

Bell’s opt-out was among the more borderline cases this option season, particularly among positional players. Bell, 31, struggled a bit in the first half of the season with the Guardians, slashing just .233/.318/.383 with a below-average wRC+ of just 96 in 393 trips to the plate with Cleveland this season. Bell was then dealt to Miami at the trade deadline, however, and quickly caught fire with the Marlins. In 224 trips to the plate throughout the remainder of the season, Bell slashed .270/.338/.480 (119 wRC+) while doubling his season home run total, from 11 to 22.

While his run in Miami did little to salvage his overall season numbers, leaving him with a 105 wRC+ that was 17th among 24 qualified first basemen this year, the hot 53-game stretch was essentially in line with what Bell had produced in both 2021 and 2022 with the Nationals and Padres. In a relatively weak free-agent class for hitters, that made it at least conceivable that Bell would decline the option and test the open market, where he’d be one of the better first base/DH bats available alongside Brandon Belt. That said, Bell’s final decision wasn’t much of a surprise; a poll of MLBTR readers just before the postseason began indicated that a whopping 72% of respondents believed Bell was better off exercising his 2023 option in pursuit of a stronger platform year in 2024.

For the Marlins, the return of Bell is surely a relief to the club that parted with 2021 first-round pick Kahlil Watson in order to acquire him from the Guardians at the deadline this year. Bell and fellow deadline addition Jake Burger both helped to spark the club’s offense down the stretch in 2023, and with the club’s primary DH in Jorge Soler headed for free agency the duo figures to help anchor the lineup alongside second baseman Luis Arraez.

Of course, more will be needed to help the club reach the postseason for a second consecutive season. The club’s offense ranked 20th in the majors last year with a 94 wRC+, and the loss of Soler’s 126 wRC+ bat will further limit the club’s offensive potential without external additions. While the return of Bell on a one-year, $16.5MM pact leaves the club with less payroll space to facilitate those additions, they still have $20MM in budget space available even if they plan on just matching their 2023 payroll of $110MM, per RosterResource.

Jorge Soler Opts Out Of Deal With Marlins

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Jorge Soler has informed the Marlins he is declining his $13MM player option for next season, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). He is a free agent and will be able to begin negotiating with other teams on Monday.

It’s an entirely unsurprising decision. Soler, 32 in February, is coming off his best season in a few years. He connected on 36 home runs with a .250/.341/.512 batting line. The right-handed hitter walked at a strong 11.4% clip while cutting his strikeout rate to a manageable 24.3%.

That marked a strong rebound showing after a tough first year in South Florida. Originally signed to a three-year, $36MM guarantee during the 2021-22 offseason, Soler slumped to a .207/.295/.400 slash over 72 games a season ago. He had an opt-out possibility last winter but understandably forewent a trip to the open market. With a much better platform performance, he’ll get to the market this time around.

While Soler’s opt-out call was made without much suspense, it puts the onus on Miami to answer a more interesting question. The Fish have until Monday to determine whether to tender a $20.325MM qualifying offer. If they do, Soler would have just over a week to gauge the market before deciding if he wants to accept.

In the event Miami opts against the QO or Soler declines one, he’ll be one of the top offensive players in a rough free agent class. Soler doesn’t offer much defensive value. He’s a well below-average corner outfielder who spent the majority of his time at designated hitter this past season. Miami plugged him into right field for just 241 2/3 innings. Few impending free agents can match his power upside, although Soler’s pre-2023 production has been inconsistent.

Miami’s QO decision is clouded by an uncertain front office picture. General manager Kim Ng recently departed the organization and the club has yet to name her replacement. Brian Chattin is leading the front office on an interim basis. Miami also awaits an opt-out decision from first baseman Josh Bell, while they’re sure to decline team provisions on Johnny Cueto and Matt Barnes.

Marlins Outright Three To Triple-A

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The Marlins outrighted outfielder Jonathan Davis, left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus, and right-hander Jeff Lindgren off their 40-man roster, according to the team’s official transactions page.  Davis and Lindgren can opt for free agency instead of the assignment to Triple-A because they’ve each been previously outrighted during their careers, while De Jesus is likely to wind up in minor league free agency.

Davis first had to be activated from the 60-day injured list before being outrighted, as he has been out of action since undergoing right meniscus surgery back in July.  Davis suffered the injury diving for a ball in center field, and it ended up costing him the remainder of his 2023 season.  The meniscus procedure had a recovery timeline of 3-6 months, so while Davis’ normal offseason routine will be delayed, he can hopefully be ready for Spring Training — whether in the Marlins’ camp, or with another club.

Miami acquired Davis in a trade with the Tigers last May, as the Fish were looking to shore up their center field depth with Jazz Chisholm Jr. recovering from turf toe.  Davis ended up playing in 34 games and making 104 plate appearances (the most of any of his six MLB seasons) before getting hurt.  After being part of five different organizations since August 2021, Davis may now find himself on the move once more, almost surely on another minor league deal.

Davis has a .198/.295/.276 slash line over 205 games and 464 PA at the big league level, appearing in each of the last six seasons.  Despite the lack of offense, Davis is a well-regarded baserunner who can play all three outfield positions, making him a useful depth option at either Triple-A or on a Major League bench.  The outright assignment is essentially an early non-tender for the Marlins, as Davis was eligible for salary arbitration for the first time this winter and projected to earn $800K for 2024.

De Jesus made his MLB debut this season, tossing 6 1/3 innings over two appearances and allowing eight earned runs.  That 11.57 ERA notwithstanding, De Jesus could finally call himself a big leaguer after a long minor league career that began in the Red Sox system in 2014.  De Jesus pitched with Boston until he spent the 2022 season with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, and he then caught on with the Marlins on a minors contract.

Working as both a starter and reliever over his career, De Jesus has a 4.01 ERA over 749 1/3 innings in the minors as a whole, and a 4.61 ERA in 191 1/3 frames at Triple-A.  The 26-year-old’s control has become an increasing issue over the last couple of years, hampering his success in the upper minors.

Lindgren was a 24th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2019 draft, and he also reached the majors for the first time in 2023, appearing in three games and delivering a 5.14 ERA over seven innings pitched.  The number of appearances didn’t quite outpace the number of outrights, as this is now the fourth time Miami has removed Lindgren from their 40-man roster in 2023.  As such, he could’ve opted into free agency on multiple occasions this season, but since he chose to remain with the Marlins on those previous occasions, he might well choose to stay once more.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

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