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Eury Perez To Undergo Imaging Due To Elbow Soreness

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The Marlins announced this afternoon that right-hander Eury Perez is experiencing elbow soreness and is set to undergo imaging and testing over the course of the coming days. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that part of the club’s diagnostic process will be a trip to Texas, where Perez will meet with noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Earlier this week, Perez was pulled from a Spring Training start after just 14 pitches due to discomfort caused by a broken fingernail.

It’s a brutal blow for the Marlins, who have been ravaged by rotation injuries this offseason. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery back in the fall and is set to miss the entire 2024 campaign, and since then both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera have dealt with shoulder issues that could relegate them to the injured list to begin the season. Now Perez appears all but certain to open the regular season on the shelf as well. While the severity of the 20-year-old phenom’s specific issue is uncertain, concerns regarding the elbow are particularly ominous due to the possibility of a lengthy absence.

Elbow surgeries can often wipe out a pitcher’s entire season, as is the case with Alcantara, and even non-surgical rehab can take a pitcher away from game action for months at a time, as was recently demonstrated by Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Even in the best case scenario, the time spent determining the extent of Perez’s injury figures to set him back as he looks to build up his pitch count for the regular season. Perez’s aforementioned fingernail issue has limited his ability to prepare for the coming season this spring, and with just two weeks until Opening Day and the right-hander likely to be sidelined for at least a few more days, it’s hard to imagine him being able to avoid at least a brief stint on the injured list.

With Perez, Cabrera, and Garrett all at least at risk of joining Alcantara on the injured list to open the season, that leaves southpaw Jesus Luzardo as the only member of the club’s on-paper starting rotation who is currently expected to be available on Opening Day. Southpaw A.J. Puk was already widely expected to begin the season in the club’s rotation after the club made the decision to stretch the lefty out despite his success as a high-leverage arm in the club’s bullpen last year, and the injuries also seem likely to open the door for the likes of Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers to step into rotation roles as the season begins. That would still leave the fifth spot in the club’s rotation vacant, however, though right-hander Bryan Hoeing represents one option already on the 40-man roster and the club has plenty of potential non-roster options at its disposal including Yonny Chirinos, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Devin Smeltzer.

Of course, none of those potential depth options can be reasonably expected to deliver the sort of impact that Perez offers. The righty, 21 next month, was a consensus top-15 prospect in all of baseball when he made his debut for Miami last year, and he immediately flashed the front-of-the-rotation potential that his prospect pedigree suggested as he dazzled with a microscopic 1.34 ERA and a solid 3.02 FIP in his first nine starts in the majors. He struck out 29.2% of batters faced during that stretch, and while midsummer struggles led the club to limit his workload down the stretch the youngster nonetheless features prominently in the club’s plans for the 2024 season and beyond. So much so, in fact, that Perez was generally regarded as the club’s sole untouchable as they fielded trade offers on the likes of Garrett, Luzardo, and Cabrera during the offseason.

The rotation injuries have been a major blow to a Marlins club that is looking to build upon a surprising postseason appearance in 2023. The club’s starting pitchers ranked top ten in the majors last year in ERA, FIP, and fWAR while striking out the fourth-most batters in all of baseball. That dominant run prevention apparatus was key to the club’s success last year as the lineup lagged behind, ranking just 20th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of 94. With so many injuries impacting the club’s rotation already this year, the team will need strong performance from the likes of Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. if the club hopes to return to postseason contention in 2024.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. Despite that, it ended up being an offseason focused on changing and planning for the future.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $5MM
Total spending: $5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Marlins got to pop some champagne last year but it quickly went flat. They were eliminated by the Phillies, swept out of the Wild Card series by losing 4-1 on October 3 and then 7-1 on October 4. Shortly thereafter, on October 6, it was reported that Sandy Alcántara would require Tommy John surgery, putting their ace out of action for the 2024 season.

But it was nonetheless a refreshing season for the club. The Marlins hadn’t even had a winning record in a full season since 2009, so to get over .500 and squeeze out a couple of playoff games was a nice step forward, relatively speaking. That’s why it registered as a surprise that the winter began with a front office shakeup. By mid-October, it was reported that the club and general manager Kim Ng would be parting ways.

Ng, who had been in that job since November of 2020, was on an expiring contract. There was a mutual option for 2024 but she was reportedly informed by owner Bruce Sherman that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work over her. The club triggered their end of the option but she decided not to trigger hers, an understandable move since it would essentially amount to a demotion after dragging the club into the postseason.

It was later reported that Sherman had concerns about the organization’s reputation for drafting and developing, particularly on the position player side, as the club has often had strong pitching staffs in recent years but the lineup has largely been built via trade. Despite many losing seasons in recent memory and plenty of high draft picks, on top of the club getting extra picks and strong international bonus pools as a revenue-sharing recipient, the club’s farm is not held in high esteem. Baseball America currently ranks them 27th out of the 30 teams in the league, FanGraphs 26th, The Athletic 28th while MLB Pipeline and ESPN both have them at 29th.

As such, change was the name of the game in Miami. Ng was eventually replaced by Peter Bendix, who had been working across the state for the Rays. Given that Tampa Bay has a strong reputation for consistently churning out young talent with limited resources, it seems Miami is hoping to bring some of that magic down south. But that wasn’t the only move in the suit-and-tie section, as scouting director D.J. Svihlik was let go, former player and coach Gabe Kapler was brought aboard to fill a front office role as assistant general manager, Rachel Balkovec was hired as director of player management, Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new vice-president of player personnel and Sara Goodrum as director of special projects.

In contrast to that flurry of changes, the roster hasn’t had a lot of significant turnover compared to last year. Arguably, the most notable change is that slugger Jorge Soler will no longer be a part of the club. He hit 36 home runs last year and decided to opt out and retry free agency, leaving $13MM on the table. That ended up being a wise move, as he secured a three-year, $42MM deal from the Giants. The Marlins didn’t receive any compensation for his departure as they opted not to issue him a $20.325MM qualifying offer.

Soler told reporters in January that the Marlins had not reached out to him about a reunion. There was some contradictory reporting later that month that suggested the club was indeed talking to Soler about coming back, but after signing with the Giants he again affirmed that he had no contact with the club over the winter.

It seems the club had little appetite on spending money to address the designated hitter vacancy. They’ve recently been connected to J.D. Martinez, who remains unsigned, but the odds of him landing in Miami seem low.

The lack of interest in free agency wasn’t limited to the DH spot, as the club spent close to nothing this winter. They came into the offseason with clear holes at the shortstop and catcher positions but didn’t attack those spots with much gusto.

Christian Bethancourt sort of fell into their laps as the Rays, the former club of Bendix, put the catcher and several other players on waivers in the hopes of cutting costs. The Guardians won the claim but later signed Austin Hedges and flipped Bethancourt to the Marlins for cash. Bethancourt and the Fish eventually avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $2.05MM.

Bethancourt is generally considered a solid defender, particularly with the running game, but his offense is inconsistent. He hit .252/.283/.409 in 2022 but dropped to .225/.254/.381 last year, his wRC+ going from 100 to 74. Regardless, he has a decent chance of being better than Jacob Stallings, who is also renowned for his glovework but hit just .210/.287/.290 with Miami over the past two seasons.

At shortstop, they were connected to various names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Nick Ahmed and Gio Urshela, but the position remained unaddressed until late February. The offseason had slowed considerably and plenty of free agents remained unsigned at that point, allowing the Marlins to take a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson.

He is coming off a dreadful season, having hit just one home run with a diminished batting average and lesser defensive metrics as well. But he was a solid everyday shortstop for many years prior to that and will be a bargain if he can turn things around. A knee injury suffered early in last year’s campaign perhaps offers an explanation for his poor results, as his sprint speed was down compared to previous seasons.

From 2017 to 2021, he posted double-digit home run totals, even in the shortened 2020 season. He got to double-digit steals in each of those full seasons as well. In 2022, he missed time due to injuries and only got into 79 games but still hit .301/.339/.395 for a wRC+ of 110. FanGraphs considered him to be worth at least two wins above replacement in each year from 2018 to 2022 and in 2016 as well.

There was also a lot of trade chatter around the club’s starting rotation, as has become the norm in recent years. But the club’s long-standing rotation surplus has been diminished, which made a trade less likely. The club traded away Pablo López last offseason as part of the deal to bring in Luis Arráez, and the aforementioned Tommy John surgery for Alcántara subtracted another hugely important arm.

That didn’t stop clubs from sniffing around, as Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera were the subject of trade rumors this winter. As of right now, the Fish have decided to hold onto the pitchers they have, which is probably for the best. Both Garrett and Cabrera are dealing with shoulder injuries here in camp and are questionable for Opening Day, while Eury Pérez is likely to open the season the shelf as he battles a broken fingernail and elbow soreness.

Most of those issues appear to be fairly minor and there’s nothing to suggest any of them is facing a lengthy absence, but the depth is going to be tested early on. Had the club decided to pull the trigger on a Luzardo deal, the picture would have looked even worse. Long-time reliever A.J. Puk has been stretched out and it seems like the injuries could give him plenty of runway to return to a starting gig, something that he did as a prospect.

In the end, the club will be going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster to last year, though it’s debatable whether that’s a good thing. Despite making the playoffs, the club actually had a -57 run differential last year, putting them in the bottom 10 of major league teams. They had an incredible 33-14 record in one-run games, allowing them to go 84-78 despite an expected win-loss of 74-88, a tough feat to repeat with consistency. That’s particularly true with a pair of notable subtractions in the bullpen. Puk figures to move to the starting staff, while the Fish flipped Steven Okert to the Twins for utility player Nick Gordon early in camp.

Soler will be gone, with Avisaíl García perhaps picking up his at-bats if he can stay healthy. Full seasons from last year’s deadline pickups Josh Bell and Jake Burger could also factor in for some more thump in the lineup. Joey Wendle is out as the regular shortstop and Anderson would be an upgrade if he puts 2023 behind him. Bethancourt will likely be a bit better than Stallings behind the dish. Losing Alcántara hurts but perhaps it won’t be so bad if the club can get steps forward from younger pitchers like Puk, Pérez, Cabrera, Max Meyer or Trevor Rogers.

Ultimately, the future of the franchise will likely be written behind the scenes, as the club seems determined to overhaul its systems for evaluating and developing younger players. As a franchise that generally doesn’t spend much, it’s important for the organization to provide productive players from within, as those players are more affordable than veteran free agents.

That could lead to significant changes down the road but the 2024 club isn’t substantially different from the 2023 version. Whether that can lead to another strong season in a tough National League East remains to be seen.

How would you grade the Marlins' offseason?
D 41.07% (770 votes)
C 26.67% (500 votes)
F 23.95% (449 votes)
B 6.35% (119 votes)
A 1.97% (37 votes)
Total Votes: 1,875

Edward Cabrera Diagnosed With Right Shoulder Impingement

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March 12: Cabrera has been diagnosed with an impingement in his right shoulder and is day-to-day for the time being, Schumaker revealed to the Marlins beat this morning (X link via Issac Azout of Fish On First). Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald adds that he’ll be evaluated further today, and the team will determine his next steps thereafter.

March 11: Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera will undergo an MRI on his right shoulder, manager Skip Schumaker tells Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. The righty’s strength tests evidently came back fine but there’s still enough concern that the club would like some more information.

It was reported that Cabrera didn’t make his scheduled start yesterday due to some tightness in his throwing shoulder. Though his scratch was presented as precautionary and Cabrera said he was “already starting to feel better” a few hours later, the concern from the club is enough that some imaging is now planned.

Cabrera has shown a strong ability to get strikeouts and ground balls thus far in his career, though with some concerns about his lack of control. He has thrown 197 2/3 innings over the past three years with a 4.01 earned run average. He has punched out 26.2% of hitters in that time while keeping 49.4% of balls in play on the ground, but he’s also given out free passes to 14% of opponents that he has faced.

Now out of options, Cabrera seemed a lock for a rotation spot in Miami to open the year, especially with some injury questions in the starting group. Sandy Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and won’t be an option for the club in 2024. Lefty Braxton Garrett is dealing with some shoulder soreness here in spring and is questionable for Opening Day.

Garrett’s injury seemed to open the door for A.J. Puk to break camp in the rotation, as he looks to move from the bullpen to a starting role. Puk would slot in next to Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Cabrera, with one spot available for someone like Trevor Rogers or Ryan Weathers. If Cabrera’s shoulder tightness requires him to miss some time, perhaps both of Rogers and Weathers need to open the season in the rotation.

Rogers and Weathers have each been posting good results here in spring but it would be less than ideal for the Marlins to be relying on them early on. Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries. Weathers, meanwhile, struggled badly last year and finished with a 6.55 ERA. It would also put them in a spot where their top depth options could be Max Meyer or Bryan Hoeing. Meyer is a talented prospect but missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Hoeing has just 83 1/3 innings of major league experience with a 6.48 ERA. Pitchers like Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster but Muñoz hasn’t yet made his MLB debut and McCaughan has just 14 big league innings.

That would put the Fish far away from past years, when they had so much depth that there were persistent rumors about them using it to bolster other parts of the roster. They did make one such trade when they flipped Pablo López and a couple of prospects for Luis Arráez, but that trade and the Alcántara surgery have thinned out the group in a hurry.

The club will obviously be hoping for good news in the coming weeks on both Garrett and Cabrera. Free agency still has some arms available but the Marlins have been keeping the purse strings tight this offseason. Their $5MM deal for Tim Anderson is the only major league deal they’ve given out to a free agent. That makes it hard to imagine them signing someone like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, or even Michael Lorenzen. Pitchers like Jake Odorizzi or Noah Syndergaard could perhaps be signed for a modest amounts, though the Marlins may not feel that necessary if Cabrera and/or Garrett end up feeling better in the coming days.

East Notes: Casas, Cabrera, Marsh

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The Red Sox recently signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM extension that extends their team control over the youngster by two years. That deal isn’t the only possible extension for a young potential cornerstone that Boston has pursued this winter, however, as first baseman Triston Casas confirmed to reporters that he and the Red Sox have discussed a possible extension as well. At the time, Casas indicated that while he would love to spend his entire career in Boston, the club had yet to present him with anything “enticing” to that point. In the wake of Bello’s extension, Casas recently discussed his own extension negotiations with the Red Sox, as relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

In his comments, Casas reiterating that he hopes to play in Boston for “the rest of [his] career” while also providing an update on the discussions he’s had with Red Sox brass. Per Casas, the sides are still talking but there’s been “no numerical values” discussed to this point and that “nothing has really accelerated” to this point. Even as the 24-year-old makes clear he hopes to spend his entire career in Boston, it doesn’t seem as though he feels much urgency to get a deal done anytime soon.

“I think I have a lot of work to do before I feel like I can say I deserve that contract extension to be the long-term first baseman for the Boston Red Sox,” Casas said, as relayed by Speier. “…So if I don’t get that offer, I’m not upset at anybody in the organization. I’m not upset with myself.”

Although Casas claims to have not yet performed at a level that would warrant the extension he’s looking for, he certainly turned in a strong performance in his first full big league season last year. In 132 games with the Red Sox, Casas slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 502 trips to the plate. That strong overall performance was bolstered by a torrid second half that saw Casas slash an incredible .317/.417/.617 in 54 games with a 175 wRC+ that was the fifth-best figure among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances down the stretch, bested by only Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts. If the sides are unable to come to an agreement this spring, a 2024 campaign that even comes close to resembling his second half last year would surely improve Casas’s earning power considerably.

More from MLB’s East divisions…

  • Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera was removed from his start against the Cardinals today before throwing a pitch, with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald noting that Cabrera experienced a bout of tightness in his right shoulder while warming up for the game. McPherson adds that Cabrera’s removal from the game was precautionary, per Miami, and that Cabrera told reporters a few hours after being removed from the game that he was “already starting to feel better.” While both club and player are indicating that the issue isn’t a particularly severe issue, it’s worth noting that Cabrera was sidelined by a shoulder impingement in June of last year and missed a month of action. Should Cabrera manage to avoid a trip to the injured list to open the season, he figures to Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez in the rotation. Southpaws A.J. Puk, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Weathers figure to compete for the final two spots in the club’s rotation, though Braxton Garrett figures to join the rotation once he’s recovered from his own shoulder woes.
  • Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has yet to appear in a game this spring while rehabbing from arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in early February. While the initial timeline for his return to action was three-to-four weeks following the surgery, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer indicates that Marsh is not quite ready to return to game action at this point. Coffey adds that club manager Rob Thomson recently indicated that Marsh is “on track” with regards to his rehab and could get into a Grapefruit League game by the end of the week. Marsh, 26, slashed a strong .277/.372/.458 in 133 games for the Phillies last year and figures to be a regular fixture in the club’s outfield mix this season alongside Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas.

Marlins Sign Mychal Givens To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins have signed right-hander Mychal Givens to a minor league contract, MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola reports (X link).  The deal will become official when Givens passes a physical, and the veteran reliever will receive an invite to Miami’s big league spring camp.

2023 was essentially a lost season for Givens, who was limited to only four big league innings over six appearances with the Orioles, and 15 more frames in the minors.  The righty battled knee inflammation at the start of the season, and then quickly had to go on the injured list again due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder.  Baltimore opted to designate Givens for assignment and ultimately release him in August when Givens was activated from the 60-day IL.

It wasn’t much a return on what was a $5MM investment for the O’s last winter, between a $3MM salary and then a $2MM buyout on the Orioles’ end of a mutual option.  That said, the logic behind the signing was quite sound, as Givens has generally been a very solid reliever over his nine big league seasons.  Givens has a 3.47 ERA over 461 2/3 innings with five different teams, mostly the Orioles in his prior stint with the club from 2015-20.

Walks have been a consistent problem for Givens throughout his career, and his 12.1% career homer rate is on the high side (if inflated by a couple of particularly rough years in 2019-20 in terms of keeping the ball in the yard).  On the plus side, Givens has posted consistently above-average strikeout rates, and his signature four-seamer has plenty of spin.  The velocity of that fastball, however, has dropped from 94.8mph in 2021 to 93.5mph in 2022, and then to just 91.5mph last year though obviously in a very small sample size.

Assuming the 33-year-old is back to full health, Givens has some quality upside as a non-roster invite to Miami’s camp.  Since A.J. Puk is now slated to join the rotation, Steven Okert was traded to the Twins, and Dylan Floro and David Robertson both left in free agency, the Marlins’ projected bullpen is lacking in experience behind Tanner Scott and JT Chargois.  Yonny Chirinos and Matt Andriese are also in camp on minor league deals, though might be utilized as swingmen rather than as true relievers.

NL East Notes: Alcantara, Robles, McNeil

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Injured Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara took a major step forward in his rehab from Tommy John surgery today, as The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson notes that the right-hander played catch this afternoon, marking the first time he’s thrown a baseball since going under the knife back in October. While that still leaves Alcantara a long way from a return to the mound, manager Skip Schumaker seemed optimistic regarding the 28-year-old’s rehab process as he noted to reporters that Alcantara is “probably three or four weeks ahead of schedule.”

Even with Alcantara potentially as much as a month ahead of schedule, it’s still all but guaranteed that he won’t pitch in the majors during the 2024 season. While he first went on the shelf on September 6 with a flexor strain, he wasn’t diagnosed with a UCL sprain until the following week and was only shut down for the season on September 23 before undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. Even the most favorable estimates for a return to the mound following Tommy John surgery require at least a year of rehab, and it seems unlikely that the Marlins would have any interest in rushing Alcantara back to the mound. While the right-hander had a down season in 2023 with a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA in 28 starts, his incredible 2022 campaign saw him post a sterling 2.28 ERA with a 2.99 FIP while leading the majors with 228 1/3 innings pitched.

While Alcantara being ahead of schedule won’t have an impact on the Marlins in 2024, it’s a positive sign for his odds of being ready to pitch come Opening Day 2025. In the meantime, the club figures to rely on the likes of Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera in 2024. The Marlins reportedly fielded trade offers on some of their young rotation arms this winter, and while a deal didn’t ultimately come together, it remains at least possible that the club will ship one or more pitchers out from its rotation mix before Alcantara returns to the mound in 2025, whether that be ahead of this summer’s trade deadline or at some point next offseason.

More from around the NL East…

  • Nationals center fielder Victor Robles left today’s game early due to hamstring tightness, as noted by MASN’s Bobby Blanco. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Blanco) after the game that Robles was dealing with a “knot” in his hamstring after being hit by a pitch in that area during a game against the Marlins earlier this week. Robles, 27 in May, was once a consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport but has struggled to establish himself at the big league level. He was off to a hot start last year before his 2023 campaign was cut short by injury, leaving him to appear in just 36 games all season. Headed into 2024, Robles appears to be the favorite for regular reps in center field, though Martinez suggested previously that 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young would have the opportunity to earn playing time in center.
  • Mets manager Carlos Mendoza indicated to reporters, including Andrew Crane of the New York Post, recently that infielder Jeff McNeil remains at least a week away from receiving any sort of game action this spring. McNeil suffered a partially torn UCL in his left arm back in September and spent the offseason rehabbing the injury, which has caused the club to proceed with caution regarding a bout of left biceps soreness that first cropped up last week, though McNeil had already not appeared in Grapefruit League games yet since camp opened last month. That said, Crane adds that McNeil made some progress recently when he took dry swings early today without any pain in his biceps. Once healthy, McNeil will look to rebound as the Mets’ starting second baseman in 2024 on the heels of a 2023 campaign that saw the two-time All Star slash a pedestrian .270/.333/.378 in 648 trips to the plate.

Marlins, J.D. Martinez Have Had Recent Discussions

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The Marlins and free agent slugger J.D. Martinez have had recent talks, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The slugger has been seeking a two-year deal. Mish notes that the Marlins have been planning to keep the DH spot open and rotate Josh Bell, Jake Burger and others through that spot. There doesn’t appear to be a fit between the two parties at the moment, he adds, though one would imagine that’s in part due to Martinez’s asking price.

Even if there’s no current fit, the conversations are of note. It shows at least some willingness from Miami to spend further in free agency, and it adds a new entrant to the Martinez mix, should his price drop to a certain point. Presumably, if the price fell to the point where a typically low-spending club like Miami was comfortable, other teams currently not in the mix for Martinez would also show interest.

The 36-year-old Martinez just wrapped up a strong rebound season with the Dodgers, wherein he slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs. Last year’s 7.1% walk rate was Martinez’s lowest since establishing himself as a big league regular, however, while his 31.1% strikeout rate was a career-high. That could suggest an aging hitter who’s selling out for more power at the expense of his once better-than-average contact skills, but even if that’s the case, the results are hard to argue with. The question moving forward is whether that approach is conducive to further success — particularly over a multi-year deal.

Martinez posted off-the-charts batted ball data in 2023. His 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 17% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate all ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters. When Martinez did make contact, there was practically no one who did so with more authority. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are the only qualified hitters in baseball with a higher average exit velocity than Martinez’s 2023 mark. Only Judge, Chapman, Acuna, Olson and Juan Soto hit a higher percentage of their batted balls at 95 mph or more.

In Miami, Martinez would effectively be replacing Jorge Soler, who opted out of the final year and $13MM on his contract and eventually signed a three-year, $42MM deal with the Giants. Martinez, in some ways, is an older version of that same skill set: he’s a right fielder whose dwindling defensive prowess makes him best-suited for DH work, and his batted-ball data and production against left-handed pitching are elite, as is the case with Soler. Martinez has more even platoon splits than Soler, but he also struck out far more often last season than Soler.

The Marlins made practically no attempt to re-sign Soler, so it’s surprising to see them checking in with Martinez. Perhaps it’s simply a matter of trying to land a bargain upgrade for the lineup late in the year as the asking price on many free agents drop. But the Marlins probably do have enough money left to make a deal for Martinez work, even if his price hasn’t bottomed out. RosterResource pegs Miami at a projected $101.6MM Opening Day payroll — about $8.4MM shy of last season’s end-of-year mark.

Even if they’re not willing to stretch beyond last year’s payroll level — which probably would rule out getting Martinez on a one-year deal — the Fish could probably offer Martinez a backloaded two-year arrangement. The only contracts on the Marlins’ books in 2025 are Avisail Garcia ($12MM) and Sandy Alcantara ($17MM). They’ll also owe Garcia a $5MM buyout on a 2026 option.

That number will spike, as Miami has a huge arbitration class headlined by Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., A.J. Puk, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera (with several other role players also mixed in). Even still, there ought to be enough room for the Fish to creatively structure a deal to bring Martinez into the fold — if owner Bruce Sherman green-lights that type of expenditure. Whether he’ll do so remains an open question. Miami sat out free agency for the entire offseason before signing Tim Anderson to a one-year, $5MM contract recently. The team has shown little appetite for free agent spending in recent years and has frequently been burned when choosing to do so (Garcia, Johnny Cueto, Jean Segura).

A.J. Puk Likely To Open Season In Marlins’ Rotation

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The Marlins revealed back in December that they planned to stretch lefty A.J. Puk out and plug him back into a starting role after he’s spent his entire career to date in the bullpen. Puk, a former standout starter at the University of Florida and a starter for most of his minor league tenure, is now “a frontrunner” to claim the fourth spot in Miami’s rotation, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.

Puk will turn 29 in April. He’s never made a big league start but has started 42 games in the minors — most coming early in his tenure. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2016) moved to the bullpen in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year prior. Puk took well to that relief role, debuting in the majors with 11 1/3 innings late in 2019. He held opponents to four runs on ten hits and five walks with 13 strikeouts — good for a 3.18 ERA. He looked to have locked up a spot on the 2020 roster, but Puk experienced shoulder pain the following spring and wound up missing the season due to an eventual debridement surgery.

The 2021 season was a rough one for Puk, though that’s not entirely surprising for a pitcher who’d undergone Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery within 24 months of each other. He split the year between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in both settings. The 2022 campaign finally brought a breakout for the talented but snakebitten southpaw; he pitched 66 1/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen and worked to a 3.12 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate.

The A’s, by then in the midst of a complete rebuild, traded Puk to the Marlins in exchange for outfielder JJ Bleday — another former top-10 overall pick (No. 4) who’d not yet lived up to the expectations associated with that lofty draft status. It worked out nicely for the Fish. In 56 2/3 frames, Puk logged a 3.97 ERA with far more encouraging secondary marks: 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, 2.66 SIERA. Puk wound up leading the Marlins with 15 saves.

Clearly encouraged by the per-inning strength of those results, the Marlins will now try to maximize Puk’s workload by moving him into a starting role. Much has been made of the Marlins’ enviable pitching depth over the years, but Puk’s move to the rotation is in part due to the fact that Miami’s stash of promising young arms is no longer as deep as it once was.

Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Braxton Garrett is behind schedule in camp due to a shoulder issue and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Max Meyer have been slowed by injuries. Sanchez, in particular, hasn’t pitched since 2020. Another touted arm, Jake Eder, was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger. Southpaw Trevor Rogers has struggled through injuries and poor results since his second-place finish in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.

If Puk is able to successfully move back into a starting role, it’d obviously be a boon for the Fish. It’s a move that could reap long-term benefits, too, as Puk is controllable through the 2026 season. The Marlins will presumably be careful with his workload after the lefty pitched just 59 1/3 innings last year between the majors and a brief minor league rehab assignment following a nerve issue in his elbow. But if he can progress to pitching 100-plus innings this year, it’s easier to envision any restrictions being removed for the 2025 campaign.

There’s some risk to the move, of course. Puk has a lengthy injury history and is no guarantee to hold up with a full rotation workload. By moving him to the starting staff, Miami is also notably weakening its relief corps. The Puk transition bodes well for Tanner Scott, who’ll likely spend his entire platform season before free agency as the Marlins’ closer. But beyond Scott, the Fish will rely on a series of arms with short track records and/or notable injury histories. Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender, JT Chargois and George Soriano all have had big league success but have all yet to establish themselves as consistent, year-to-year performers.

Assuming the Marlins indeed stick with this plan, Puk will slot into the rotation behind Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. The aforementioned Rogers and fellow lefty Ryan Weathers are the leading candidates for the fifth spot, Jackson notes, with Rogers a likelier fit than Weathers. Sanchez, once viewed as a rotation building block, is out of minor league options but figures to head to the bullpen if he’s healthy enough to make the roster. Whoever grabs the fifth spot will essentially be a placeholder for Garrett anyhow. That said, given workload concerns for Puk and the general frequency with which pitchers get injured, it’s likely that all of Puk, Rogers, Garrett and Weathers will wind up starting a fair share of games in South Florida this season.

Pirates’ Trade Talks For Rotation Help Have Slowed

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Throughout the late stages of the offseason, the Pirates have reportedly been exploring the trade market for rotation help, with the Marlins (specifically, right-hander Edward Cabrera) being the team most frequently suggested as a potential trade partner. However, while the Bucs talked with the Fish and surely several other clubs about deals to bolster the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that talks have “lost steam” and that GM Ben Cherington now says he’s increasingly focused on the arms in house.

“If there are things we can do to make the team better, we’re gonna stay on that,” Cherington tells Mackey. “No guarantee those things happen. We’re mostly focused on the guys who are here.”

The Pirates have three slam-dunk members of their Opening Day rotation: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Keller, who recently signed a five-year contract extension, will get the Opening Day nod. There are still a pair of open rotation jobs, however, and Cherington suggested there are six or seven options vying for those two opportunities.

The names currently competing include a mix of young prospects, rebound candidates coming off a down 2023 showing, and veterans hoping to win a spot. While the Pirates have already informed 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes that he won’t make the Opening Day roster, fellow top prospect Jared Jones (No. 74 on Baseball America’s top 100 list) is firmly in the mix. Jones may not have the same ceiling as Skenes, but Skenes pitched just 6 2/3 innings last year following the draft. Jones, on the other hand, logged a combined 3.85 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate in 126 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A in ’23. He’s pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in camp.

Jones, 22, was specifically called out by manager Derek Shelton as a candidate for a spot in the Opening Day rotation (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com). He’d need to be added to the 40-man roster, which could potentially work against him. That’s not true of Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas, each of whom is on the 40-man roster. (Lefty Jackson Wolf is as well, but the Pirates already optioned him to Double-A in their first wave of spring cuts).

Contreras and Falter have the most experience of the bunch. Both are looking to rebound from ugly 2023 showings. Contreras looked like a potential rotation staple as recently as 2022, when he pitched 95 innings of 3.79 ERA ball with passable, if unspectacular, strikeout and walk rates (21.1%, 9.6%). However, he lost more than a mile off his heater in ’23 and took a step back in virtually every rate category of note. He’s still only 24 years old and is just two years removed from being a top-100 prospect himself, so there’s ample time for him to figure things out. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he’ll make the roster one way or another — be it in the rotation or in the bullpen. Pirates fans will want to check out Mackey’s piece in full, as it more fully details some of the gains Contreras has shown thus far in camp.

Falter was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in a swap sending utilityman Rodolfo Castro to the Phillies. The 26-year-old was never as touted a prospect as Contreras was, but the two followed relatively similar arcs otherwise: brief MLB debut in 2021, solid back-of-the-rotation results in 2022, poor showing in 2023. Falter tossed 84 innings with a 3.86 ERA as the Phillies’ fifth starter in ’22, fanning 21.2% of his opponents against an exceptional 4.9% walk rate. Like Contreras, he saw his strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates all back up in 2023 as he finished out the season with a 5.36 ERA in 80 2/3 frames. Also like Contreras, he’s out of minor league options and will need to make the roster or else be traded or exposed to waivers.

Priester, Ortiz and Nicolas all have minor league options remaining and have all made their big league debuts (in quite brief fashion, for Nicolas). They all ranked within the organization’s top 15 prospects at Baseball America as recently as 2023. Priester and Ortiz both drew top-100 fanfare prior to their debuts. None of the three has established himself on the roster, however. Priester has the best minor league numbers of the group but has been hit harder than Ortiz in the big leagues. Ortiz throws the hardest but has displayed shakier command than Priester. Nicolas still hasn’t had much success above Double-A, so he seems likely ticketed for Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the year, particularly since he’s already been hit hard in camp.

The Bucs also have a pair of veterans who could compete for a job. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 40-man roster after signing a split deal late in the winter. He’s out of options and can’t be sent down, but he’s spent the bulk of his MLB career as a swingman with the Rays and could be headed for a similar spot in Pittsburgh. Righty Chase Anderson is in camp on a non-roster deal. The 36-year-old hasn’t posted a sub-5.00 ERA in the big leagues since being traded by the Brewers following the 2019 season but has shown decently in Triple-A while bouncing around the league since then.

Braxton Garrett Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett is behind schedule after dealing with some shoulder soreness early in camp and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day, manager Skip Schumaker announced this morning (X link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Garrett threw a bullpen session today but the delayed start to his throwing progression likely won’t leave him with sufficient time to be built up for the start of the season. “He feels great now, but I think it’s dangerous when you’re trying to push a guy to make an Opening Day roster.” Schumaker said.

Garrett, now 26, has emerged as a key piece of the Miami rotation over the past couple of seasons, something recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. The lefty posted a 3.58 earned run average over 17 starts in 2022, but still found himself sixth on the depth chart going into 2023. Injuries opened a path for him last year and he made the most of that chance, eventually logging 159 2/3 innings over 31 outings with a 3.66 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

It sounds as though the concern from the club is minimal and Garrett may just miss the first couple of weeks of the schedule. If that proves to be the case, it likely won’t have a huge impact on the club’s plans but there may also be some ripple effects.

The club’s starting depth has made the Marlins a near-constant subject of trade rumors, though there are reasons why that might now be less likely. They traded Pablo López last offseason and Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery late in 2023, putting him out of commission for the entire 2024 campaign. That left the club with a rotation mix consisting of Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers coming into this winter.

The rumors around that group continued but the club didn’t line up a deal that they liked enough to pull the trigger on. Various teams around the league are currently discovering pitcher injuries, which perhaps could have lit up the phone in the Miami front office, but they have at least some concern of their own that could perhaps tamp down their appetite for a deal.

With Garrett likely to miss some time, it perhaps opens a rotation spot for A.J. Puk. He’s been an effective reliever over the past couple of years, including posting a 3.97 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate as a Marlin last year. He’s attempting to return to a rotation role this spring, as he served as an intriguing starting pitching prospect while climbing the minor league ladder.

Spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt but Puk has yet to allow a run over his first two outings, tossing five innings with nine strikeouts, three walks and just one hit. He will likely face some kind of workload limit at some point since he has been working as a reliever for a while. He tossed 125 innings the minors in 2017 but then missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and hasn’t hit 70 frames in any season since.

The Marlins also have Max Meyer on hand, though he will also be looking at limitations since he sat out all of 2023 rehabbing from his own Tommy John procedure. Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster as depth options. If Garrett eventually gets built up and everyone else is healthy, Puk and Rogers have options and could theoretically be sent down for a while to monitor their workloads, as Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries.

There are lots of talented options on hand but there’s also a fair amount of questions. The free agent market still features notable pitchers even though the calendar now reads March, so the Fish could reach out if they feel they need to bolster the group. It wouldn’t be realistic to expect a signing of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi is more plausible.

RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $102MM right now. That would be the highest of the Bruce Sherman era, as he purchased the club in late 2017 and Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their payroll below nine figures in each season since then.

Perhaps the club has little appetite to add to that figure, as they seemingly made little attempt to retain slugger Jorge Soler. It had been previously reported that the club had some contact with him while he was a free agent but he recently signed with the Giants and contradicted those reports. “We never had communication during the season or after the season, so, I knew I was not coming back,” Soler said, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase.

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