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Michael Fulmer

Pitcher Notes: Braves, Stroman, Mets, Wheeler, Fulmer, Giants

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The Braves were among the teams present to scout Marcus Stroman’s latest outing, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Braves are in many ways the perfect partner for a team with a moveable asset like the Blue Jays, as Atlanta is flush with near-ready major league arms, but lacking the consistency it desires as a team positioned for the playoffs. The asking price for Stroman is said to be high – in the area of what the Pirates surrendered for Chris Archer – but Toronto is likely taking the call even if Atlanta starts with one of its ready-but-struggling arms, depending on whom the Blue Jays favor from the group of Max Fried, Bryse Wilson, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright. Landing in Atlanta would reunite Stroman with Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who was the Jays’ GM when they drafted the hurler 22nd overall in 2012.

More on a few other noteworthy pitchers…

  • Mets righty and prime trade candidate Zack Wheeler went on the injured list with a shoulder impingement on July 15, but it doesn’t appear that’s going to stand in the way of a possible deadline deal. Wheeler could throw a full bullpen session Sunday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. If that goes well, there’s potential for Wheeler to return in time to make two starts by the July 31 cutoff for trades, Puma observes. As things stand, the Mets are still optimistic Wheeler would net “a solid return” in a deal, according to Puma.
  • Tigers righty Michael Fulmer provided an update Saturday on his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in March, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. “Everything is going according to plan,” said Fulmer, who added he probably won’t pick up a baseball until October or November. The hope is that Fulmer will make it back to the Tigers’ rotation sometime next summer. While lefty Matthew Boyd is Detroit’s top trade chip nowadays, that honor belonged to Fulmer a couple years ago. However, thanks to the former Rookie of the Year’s recent downturn in performance, multiple injuries and his TJ procedure, Fulmer’s trade value is nil at the moment. Still just 26, Fulmer has another three years of arbitration eligibility left, so he could yet reemerge as a valuable starter for the Tigers.
  • The Giants added righty Jandel Gustave to their 40-man roster Thursday, in part because he has an opt-out in his minors deal and was drawing interest from other teams, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets (sorry, Henry, but Gustave’s placement on the Giants’ 40-man is not the most obscure transaction MLBTR has covered thus far). As Schulman notes, Gustave possesses an enticing high-90s fastball. The 26-year-old hasn’t been able to harness his stuff into positive results with the San Francisco organization yet, however. Gustave has pitched to a 6.56 ERA/6.08 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball in 23 1/3 Triple-A innings this season.

Tigers Select Gordon Beckham’s Contract, Release Bobby Wilson

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The Tigers have selected the contract of veteran infielder Gordon Beckham, as per a team announcement.  Right-hander Michael Fulmer (who will undergo Tommy John surgery) was placed on the 60-day IL in order to create room for Beckham on the 40-man roster.  Infielder Ronny Rodriguez was also optioned to Triple-A.

In another move, the Tigers have also released catcher Bobby Wilson, as per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit News (Twitter link).  Multiple Tigers beat reporters noted earlier today that Wilson’s locker at the club’s Spring Training complex had been cleared out.  Beckham and Wilson were both in camp on minor league contracts, vying to win jobs on a Detroit team with needs to fill at both the utility infield and backup catcher positions.

Beckham enjoyed a big spring at the plate, and is now set to appear in an eleventh MLB season for his sixth different franchise.  Picked eighth overall by the White Sox in the 2008 draft, Beckham has spoken openly about the pressures he faced early in his career to live up to that top-prospect billing, as his career began to move along more of a journeyman path.  He even considered retirement if he hadn’t made the Tigers’ roster this spring, though that appears to be a moot point now that he’ll suit up for Opening Day.

Beckham appeared in just 33 Major League games over the last two seasons, spending most of his time in the Mariners’ minor league system.  The 32-year-old has a .329/.302/.366 slash line over 3542 career plate appearances, though his biggest role will be to provide backup at second base and third base.  (Beckham could also fill in at shortstop in a pinch, with a handful of games at the position over his career.)

With rookie Grayson Greiner in line for regular catching duty in Detroit, the Tigers brought veterans Wilson and Hector Sanchez into camp to provide competition for the backup job, as ostensible backup John Hicks will also be getting some time at first base.  Cameron Rupp was also acquired from the Giants a few weeks ago, which seems to have left Wilson out of the mix.

Wilson appeared in 47 games for Minnesota last season, his first taste of big league action since 2016 (when he played for the Rays, Rangers, and the Tigers in an earlier stint).  A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Wilson has been known more for his defense and game-calling abilities than his bat, with just a .208/.264/.313 slash line over an even 1000 PA.

Michael Fulmer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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TODAY: Fulmer will indeed undergo the procedure, he tells reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY: Tigers righty Michael Fulmer has received a recommendation that he undergo Tommy John surgery, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter. He’d stand to miss the entire 2019 season and in all likelihood a portion of the 2020 campaign as well.

Fulmer’s medical status has been a bit of a mystery of late, but this news comes as a surprise. He had been shut down recently, purportedly to work on mechanical issues tied to his recovery from last season’s knee surgery, but obviously was dealing with something else entirely. Fulmer had shown a worrying loss of velocity this spring after turning in a subpar, injury-marred 2018 campaign.

It’s not yet certain that Fulmer will go under the knife, but that seems to be far and away the likeliest outcome. Per the Tigers, both a team doctor and noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews have already recommended that Fulmer receive a full replacement of his ulnar collateral ligament.

This is hardly the news anyone wanted for Fulmer, who reached his 26th birthday just days ago. Fortunately for the righty, he already agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the coming season. On the bright side for the club, they won the arbitration hearing and thus avoided a larger payout.

In all likelihood, the Tigers will end up paying Fulmer that $2.8MM both this season and next, while hoping he’ll be able to contribute by the middle of the 2020 campaign. Fulmer is controllable in 2021 and 2022 as well. His earning power in those years will depend upon what he’s able to do in ’20; it’ll unquestionably be diminished by the lengthy absence.

The Detroit organization has thus far centered its rebuilding effort on young pitching, with a series of interesting arms moving up through the ranks. It seemed through his first two seasons in the majors that Fulmer might be a veteran anchor for the next great Tigers staff — or, instead, a big trade chip who’d reel in loads of young talent.

That outlook already changed last year, as Fulmer struggled to a 4.69 ERA in 132 1/3 innings. During his excellent debut campaign and solid follow-up effort, Fulmer’s unexciting strikeout numbers were explained away by some. The line was that his overpowering arsenal and ability to induce weak contact made it unnecessary for Fulmer to rack of Ks. The narrative shifted over the course of the 2018 season. Even as hard contact rose (39.5%), his groundball rate (44.2%) and home run suppression (1.29 per nine innings, 14.5% HR/FB rate) dove despite steady 96 mph velocity readings on his fastball.

Perhaps Fulmer would have found his way back to being a high-quality starter had he not encountered knee issues that ultimately resulted in a meniscus procedure. The connection between that joint, his reduced velo this spring, and his problematic elbow isn’t completely clear, but it certainly seems plausible that all are interrelated. He’ll now have a lengthy absence to work through the varying health issues. If all goes well, Fulmer could return to be a quality hurler once more.

Tigers Shut Down Michael Fulmer

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March 15: Fulmer further discussed the shut down with McCosky, stating that he’s not sure how long it’ll take to build back up. As McCosky explains in greater detail, the right-hander had been wearing a brace on his surgically repaired knee that has since been swapped out for a compression sleeve.

“Maybe it was a little restrictive,” said Fulmer in reference to the brace. “Today was a step in the right direction as far as using my lower body and trying to drive toward home plate, as opposed to basically not using my lower body at all.”

Fulmer’s fastball velocity this spring had been hovering in the 90 to 92 mph range, per McCosky, which is a far cry from the 95.5 mph he’s averaged throughout his career. At present, there’s no defined timetable for Fulmer to be up to full strength, but it seems likely he’ll open the season on the injured list.

March 14: The Tigers have shut down righty Michael Fulmer, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports (Twitter links). Manager Ron Gardenhire says that Fulmer “took a step back to refine his lower body mechanics.”

Typically, pitchers only hit the shelf in mid-March if they are dealing with an arm problem or other injury. That doesn’t seem to be the case here, though it could be that the team sees some risk in allowing Fulmer to keep throwing. He underwent knee surgery last fall and has shown reduced velocity thus far this spring.

Fulmer, who’s slated to earn $2.8MM after losing an arbitration hearing, is a key asset for the rebuilding Detroit organization. While the team’s outlook for the coming season is poor regardless, the hope had been that Fulmer would get back on track after a rough 2018 season.

There’s still time for Fulmer to re-discover his established ceiling. He turns 26 tomorrow and has three more arb-eligible seasons beyond 2019. First, he’ll need to work through the issues that the club has identified.

As things stand, says Gardenhire, there’s “no timetable on when [Fulmer is] going to get back on the mound.” That leaves the door open for Daniel Norris or another hurler to earn a shot. Matt Hall, Ryan Carpenter, and Spencer Turnbull are among the other potential candidates with some MLB experience and 40-man spots.

Central Notes: Fulmer, Wood, M. Perez

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Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters from 2016-18, but his velocity has been anything but imposing early in 2019. As has been the case throughout the spring, Fulmer’s fastball sat in the 88 to 92 mph range during a 44-pitch outing Saturday, leading Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press to note that the soon-to-be 26-year-old “didn’t look right.” The Tigers aren’t confident Fulmer’s velocity will return, writes Fenech, which is an eyebrow-raising observation given that he’s one of the rebuilding team’s most valuable players and trade chips. But it’s worth noting Fulmer’s still in the early stages of his comeback from right knee surgery, and he and pitching coach Rick Anderson expressed confidence Saturday that his velocity will return, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. If so, the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year figures to stand a far better chance of rebounding from a disappointing, injury-shortened 2017 – a 132 1/3-inning campaign in which he logged career-worst numbers (4.69 ERA/4.52 FIP with 7.48 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9).

More on a couple other hurlers from the majors’ Central divisions…

  • While Fulmer’s velocity has gone in the wrong direction this spring, the uptick Twins southpaw Martin Perez has experienced has impressed scouts, Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes (subscription required). As a member of the Rangers from 2012-18, with whom he had an unspectacular tenure, Perez’s average fastball clocked in at 93.5 mph. This spring, though, it has consistently reached the mid- to upper 90s – including across four shutout innings against the Pirates on Saturday. The increase may be attributable to a mechanical change the Twins made with Perez, whom they signed to a one-year, $4MM guarantee over the winter. The Twins have pushed Perez to incorporate his hips more into his delivery, Hayes details, and he has taken their advice. “All in from Day One,” assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told Hayes. “He’s a joy to be around. One of the hardest workers we have.” If Perez’s velo gains stick, he could end up as a steal for the Twins, and may finally begin delivering on the hype he had during his days as a prospect.
  • Reds left-hander Alex Wood, who has been dealing with back issues over the past couple weeks, suffered a setback after throwing a simulated game Friday, according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Wood hasn’t pitched in a Cactus League game since Feb. 25, and it could be at least another week before he makes an appearance, Nightengale suggests. Although Bell said Wood’s injury isn’t “a major concern,” the skipper’s nonetheless unsure whether the winter acquisition will be ready for the start of the season.  Having picked Wood up in a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, the Reds are counting on the 28-year-old to serve as one of the anchors in what they hope will be a vastly improved rotation.

Tigers Win Arbitration Hearing Against Michael Fulmer

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The Tigers have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Michael Fulmer, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). He’ll now earn the $2.8MM salary that the team filed rather than the $3.4MM submitted by his camp.

Fulmer, 26 next month, struggled through the worst season of his young career in 2018, recording a 4.69 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, a career-high 1.29 HR/9 and a career-low 44.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty was also limited to a career-low 132 1/3 innings as he worked through oblique and knee injuries. While the 2018 campaign was far from his best work, Fulmer was a quality arm in each of his first two MLB campaigns, including a 2016 season in which he was named American League Rookie of the Year.

The lack of innings in Fulmer’s platform year, a career losing record thanks largely to playing on a rebuilding Tigers team (wins and losses still factor into arbitration proceedings even if they’re no longer valued by Major League front offices), and a relatively pedestrian strikeout rate all likely worked against Fulmer as he made a case for an additional $600K on top of what the Tigers offered.

Moving forward, Fulmer’s future raises and salaries in arbitration will be based upon that $2.8MM figure, meaning today’s loss has compounding downside for him in the future. He’ll be eligible for arbitration thrice more as a Super Two player before reaching free agency upon the completion of the 2022 campaign (barring a future extension, of course). Given Detroit’s status as a rebuilding club, Fulmer figures to once again see his name circulating on the rumor circuit this summer, though with so much team control remaining, the Tigers certainly hope to be competitive well before Fulmer is close to the open market. As such, there won’t be as much urgency to move him as there will be with a shorter-term asset such as right fielder Nicholas Castellanos.

Fulmer is the 10th player to go to a hearing this year, and as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, the players won six of those 10 hearings. Fulmer was the league’s final unresolved case, so this year’s slate of arbitration hearings will lean slightly in favor of the players’ side.

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Tigers Select Harold Castro

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The Tigers have selected the contract of infielder Harold Castro, per a club announcement. A roster spot was freed by placing injured starter Michael Fulmer on the 60-day DL.

Castro, 24, has not done much at all with the bat in the upper minors. Through 367 plate appearances this year at Double and Triple-A, he posted a .265/.283/.319 batting line with a pair of home runs and just nine walks.

Still, the Venezuelan could perhaps be a candidate to hold a 40-man spot through the winter if the Detroit organization feels he can contribute over time in a utility role. Castro has spent most of his time as a professional at second base, but has also lined up at short, third, and all three outfield positions.

As for Fulmer, the move doesn’t tell us anything new. It was already clear that he was done for the season when he underwent knee surgery yesterday.

AL Central Notes: Fulmer, Twins, Mondesi, O’Hearn

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Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press examines the aftermath of a brutal season for Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer. The results are hard to deny. As Fenech puts it, Fulmer has gone “from being the most important trade piece of the Tigers’ rebuild … to a missed opportunity.” Of course, there were reasons that the team elected not to move off of the big price tag it placed on the young hurler, as Fenech explores while noting it’d be unfair to use hindsight to say the Tigers “should” have traded Fulmer sooner. As things stand, it seems the Detroit organization will pay Fulmer his arbitration salary for 2019 (as a Super Two) and hope he can regain his standing. After all, he’s still controlled for four full seasons, and a vintage first half or even a strong full season would likely serve to quickly rebuild some of Fulmer’s stock.

Elsewhere in the AL Central…

  • Jake Depue of 1500 ESPN takes a look at some of the 40-man roster decisions the Twins will have to make in advance of the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. Nick Gordon stands out at the most obvious minor leaguer in need of protection, but the Twins will also need to clear roster space for names like outfielder LaMonte Wade, infielder Luis Arraez and relievers Jake Reed and Tyler Jay, among others. However, with four free agents (Ervin Santana, Logan Forsythe, Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez) and several non-tender/outright candidates on the fringes of the roster at present, Minnesota should have a fair bit of flexibility as that early offseason deadline approaches.
  • Both Adalberto Mondesi and Ryan O’Hearn have been impressing with the Royals lately, Jesse Newell of the Kansas City Star writes. Mondesi, in particular, is the focus of the column, with manager Ned Yost and quality control coach Pedro Grifol (via Yost) weighing in on the improvements in the second-generation infielder’s improvements. “I just think he’s really, really talented,” Yost said of Mondesi, noting that the organization is pleased and feels he’s improved in “all phases of his game.” Mondesi has indeed been a bright spot in a bleak Kansas City season — MLBTR’s Jeff Todd just recently listed him as the primary silver lining for the Royals — as he’s shown a promising blend of speed, power and defense. Mondesi, who homered again tonight, is now hitting .290/.316/.496 with 11 homers, 26 steals and quality defensive marks at both shortstop (+2 DRS, +2 UZR) and second base (+3 DRS, +1.7 UZR). O’Hearn may not have garnered as much attention, but the 25-year-old first baseman is sporting a ridiculous .272/.372/.632 slash and 11 homers through his first 145 MLB plate appearances (albeit while showing some enormous platoon splits in that small sample).

Michael Fulmer Undergoes Knee Surgery

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As had largely been expected by this point, the Tigers announced today that righty Michael Fulmer has undergone surgery on his right knee. (Via MLB.com’s Jason Beck, on Twitter.) The repair work to his meniscus is not expected to prevent Fulmer from participating fully in Spring Training next year.

Fulmer, 25, went mostly backwards this year in a rebuilding season for the club.  Though his 7.48 K/9 returned to the standard he’d set in his sterling rookie season of 2016, Fulmer gave up a career high 19 HR in just 132 2/3 IP, saw his walk rate spike a nearly a hitter per nine (3.13, from 2.19 in ’17), and allowed hard contact nearly 40% of the time in 2018.  It was, by most accounts, a disappointing season for the former Rookie of the Year.

Still the crown jewel of a young Tigers rotation, Fulmer, a Super Two player, will embark on the first of his four arbitration-eligible seasons in 2019.  He figures to reprise his role as a coveted trade candidate in the offseason, where teams will no doubt value his long period of control, mostly consistent strike-throwing, and lack of significant injuries to this point.  It’s worth noting, too, that Fulmer’s average fastball velocity remained, at 95.8 MPH, one of the ten best in the league, so perhaps heretofore untapped upside is still in play.

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