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Injury Notes: Buxton, Sano, Ervin, Knebel, Williamson

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Byron Buxton has a hairline fracture in his left toe, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports on Twitter. According to Hayes, the Twins hopes to have a better idea on his return timeline by the end of the homestand. As Hayes wrote previously, the team has missed Buxton while he’s been sidelined; seven of the club’s eight wins have come with the speedster patrolling center field. It’s worth noting, though, that while Buxton has played typically great defense in the outfield grass, he’s scuffled to a .195/.233/.244 batting line at the plate.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Speaking of the Twins, Miguel Sano will sit out today’s game due to hamstring tightness (h/t Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). Sano, who owns a .450 slugging percentage on the season with five homers and a 40% K rate, barely ran out a ground ball in his last at-bat during yesterday’s game. It’s unclear how long he’ll need to rest. Meanwhile, there’s a positive sign for the Twins: Ervin Santana is making progress and has already practiced throwing his change-up, according to Hayes. He’s reportedly close to throwing off a mound. The club will be anxiously awaiting his return, as their starters as a group sit in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and FIP and dead last in innings pitched.
  • Brewers closer Corey Knebel is very excited about his progress with his hamstring strain, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. He’ll reportedly throw one more bullpen session before heading out on a rehab assignment. It seems likely that Knebel will be able to return by mid-May. Josh Hader, Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes have closed out games in his absence, collecting six saves; that group has combined for a sub-1.25 ERA on the season, so Knebel’s return will make for a truly formidable late-inning crew.
  • It looks as though Giants outfielder Mac Williamson will avoid the concussion DL, as manager Bruce Bochy expects him to start tomorrow (h/t Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic). There was a fear that Williamson might have suffered a concussion after a collision with the outfield wall on Tuesday, but the 27-year-old appears to have dodged any serious injury. Williamson already has three homers for San Francisco in just 19 plate appearances.

Twins Designate David Hale, Select Matt Magill

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10:36am: The Twins have selected the contract of right-hander Matt Magill in a corresponding roster move. Magill owns a 6.47 ERA in 32 major league innings between the Dodgers and Reds; remarkably he’s walked more than a batter an inning at the game’s highest level.

8:38am: The Twins have designated right-hander David Hale for assignment, according to a team announcement. A corresponding roster move is expected at some point today.

Minnesota had claimed Hale off waivers from the Yankees less than 48 hours ago. Recent comments from GM Thad Levine suggested that his club had shown interest in Hale as far back as the offseason, when they made attempts to sign him to a minors pact and ultimately lost out to the Yankees in those efforts. Whatever interest the club had was clearly tempered last night after they watched him walk four hitters and allow four earned runs in just three relief innings against a cellar-dwelling Cincinnati ballclub.

While Hale’s short leash certainly tells a clear story about the capacity in which Minnesota views the 30-year-old, it’s fair to imagine that the club might still be hoping they can keep him by sneaking him through waivers. Levine went on record saying that the club likes his pitch profile; the righty throws a four-seamer, sinker, change-up and slider, though it should be noted that all of those pitches are negative throughout his career in terms of weighted runs above average per 100 pitches.

For the Twins, it’s the latest development in a story of bullpen despair early on in 2018. As a group, their relievers own the second-highest ERA and FIP in the major leagues, second only to the Royals. It’s fortunate that they’ve been asked to shoulder the fifth-smallest workload in terms of innings thus far, but the Hale experiment now looks like yet another shortcoming in a desperate search for bullpen stability; he’s already the twelfth reliever to make an appearance for them Twins in 2018.

Angels Return Luke Bard To Twins

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The Angels have returned Rule 5 pick Luke Bard to the Twins, per a club announcement. The reliever had been designated for assignment recently.

Bard, 27, has long been viewed as a high-upside relief arm. But he had managed only a 5.40 ERA in his first 11 2/3 innings at the MLB level. While Bard carried 10.0 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 in that span, he also coughed up four long balls.

As they compete for a postseason spot, the Halos will not be able to afford the luxury of carrying a Rule 5 player who will not be an immediate contributor. Evidently, the club did not feel he was going to a valuable enough performer to hold down a bullpen spot the rest of the way.

That’s good news for the Twins, who’ll be able to hold onto their former first-round pick without occupying a 40-man spot. They’ll send $50K to Los Angeles to reacquire his rights. It seems there’s still reason to hope that Bard can turn into a quality MLB asset. He’s certainly dedicated to his craft, as an excellent chat with David Laurila of Fangraphs from earlier this year demonstrates.

Twins Notes: Hale, Kinley

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  • The Twins tried to sign right-hander David Hale this offseason, GM Thad Levine told reporters today after claiming Hale off waivers (link via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger). “We think we may have been the runners-up to the Yankees in terms of enticing him to come to Spring Training,” said Levine. “From a pitch profile standpoint, we’ve liked him. I think at this stage in the year, it’s important to add to your depth, and we did that. He can pitch in a variety of roles.” The 30-year-old Hale has a 4.33 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 and a 52.1 percent ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings at the Major League level.
  • Also from Bollinger’s piece, the Twins are hoping they can find a way to retain right-hander Tyler Kinley, whom they selected in the Rule 5 Draft but designated for assignment yesterday. Kinley will first have to be exposed to waivers, but if he clears, the Twins could look to work out a trade with the Marlins that would allow them to keep Kinley in their minor league ranks. “We’ve talked about the possibility of what had to be done, even last night, to be able to keep him in a Twins uniform,” manager Paul Molitor told reporters. “I don’t know how likely that is. But we’ll see what kind of response and interest there is.”

Twins Claim David Hale

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The Twins have claimed righty David Hale off waivers from the Yankees, per a club announcement. Hale will be placed onto the active roster, which will require a corresponding move.

Minnesota had just announced a pitching move, calling up Aaron Slegers after dropping Rule 5 pick Tyler Kinley. Now, they’ll have another new addition to the MLB roster, which could mean that Slegers will end up back on optional assignment.

Hale had been designated by the Yankees as part of their own staff tweaking (in that case, claiming A.J. Cole). The 30-year-old Hale turned in one scoreless outing at the MLB level this year but has spent most of the first month of the season at Triple-A, where he owns a 5.52 ERA with ten strikeouts and two walks over 14 2/3 innings.

Twins Designate Tyler Kinley

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The Twins announced after tonight’s game that they will designate righty Tyler Kinley for assignment, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was among those to report on Twitter. A corresponding move has yet to be announced.

Kinley, 27, received his first shot at the majors after being plucked from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft over the offseason. He’ll now be offered back to the Miami organization if he clears waivers.

The Twins have not utilized Kinley much to open the year, and for good reason. In his 3 1/3 innings, he has allowed nine earned runs on nine hits while recording as many walks as strikeouts (four apiece).

Though he’s sitting at nearly 97 mph with his average fastball and keeping a decent 10.8% swinging-strike rate, Kinley has surrendered a .538 batting average on balls in play. While that would surely have trended down over time, it’s also not a complete aberration given that he has allowed hard contact at a whopping 73.3% clip.

Twins Reinstate Phil Hughes From DL

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  • Chirinos will face Twins righty Phil Hughes, whom the team has reinstated from the disabled list. The Twins optioned pitcher Gabriel Moya to Triple-A to make room for Hughes, who had been on the shelf with a strained oblique. The 31-year-old Hughes hasn’t pitched in a big league game since July 14, 2017, thanks to the thoracic outlet syndrome revision surgery he underwent in August. At $13.2MM per year through next season, Hughes is one of the Twins’ highest-paid players, though he has struggled mightily since a sensational 2014 with the team. When he was healthy enough to pitch last season, Hughes logged a 5.87 ERA with a meager 30.7 percent groundball rate over 53 2/3 innings (14 appearances, seven starts).

Twins Place Byron Buxton On DL

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  • The Twins announced that Byron Buxton has been placed on the 10-day DL, retroactive to April 15, with migraine headaches. Outfielder Ryan LaMarre was added to the 25-man roster in place of Buxton, who’ll be eligible to return next Wednesday. It’s been a slow start to the year for Buxton after a strong five-month stretch to close out the 2017 season; the longtime top prospect hit .274/.335/.448 in his final 459 plate appearances last season but is off to a .195/.233/.244 start to the season.

Ervin Santana Cleared To Begin Throwing Program

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  • Right-hander Ervin Santana has been cleared to begin a throwing program, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The Twins’ top starter, Santana has yet to pitch in 2018 after undergoing surgery to repair his right middle finger back in February. At last check, skipper Paul Molitor conceded that Santana was “a bit” behind schedule, though the start of a throwing program is a positive step for the 35-year-old. Berardino notes that Santana could require as much as six weeks to get back up to speed, however, so it seems as through the Twins will be without his contributions until at least mid-May.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click hereto read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Twins had a quiet winter in the 2016-17 offseason under newly hired chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine, but Minnesota’s new executive duo was much more aggressive following last season’s surprise Wild Card berth.

Major League Signings

  • Addison Reed, RHP: Two years, $16.75MM
  • Lance Lynn, RHP: One year, $12MM
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: Two years, $10MM
  • Logan Morrison, 1B/DH: One year, $6.5MM (plus 2019 vesting option)
  • Fernando Rodney, RHP: One year, $4.5MM
  • Zach Duke, LHP: One year, $2.15MM
  • Anibal Sanchez, RHP: One year, $2.5MM (Sanchez’s salary was not guaranteed. The Twins released him and paid him $419K in termination pay in Spring Training upon signing Lynn)
  • Total spend: $52.3MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll]

Needs Addressed

The Twins boast a homegrown core of position players, with Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco all being drafted/signed and developed by the organization and all under control for another four-plus seasons. With that group in place, plus veterans Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Jason Castro penciled into the lineup, the emphasis for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the front office was understandably on pitching.

In 2017, Twins starters collectively ranked 19th in the Majors with a 4.73 ERA, 23rd with a 4.85 FIP and 27th with a 4.92 xFIP. Equally damning, the Twins ranked 24th in baseball with 869 2/3 innings from their rotation despite the fact that Ervin Santana was one of just 15 pitchers to top 200 innings (and one of only two in all of baseball to top 210 frames). In fact, if you subtract the contributions of Santana and Jose Berrios from the 2017 Twins, their starters logged a disastrous 5.55 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi | Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has help on the near horizon in the form of top 100 prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, but as a club with postseason aspirations, they never seemed likely to rely solely on in-house options. Minnesota made a strong run at Yu Darvish, reportedly offering him a contract worth $100MM+ before he ultimately signed a six-year deal with the Cubs. It was apparent back in November that the Twins were poised to spend at a much more aggressive rate than we’ve historically seen, but it nonetheless felt a bit unusual to see them in the mix for the market’s top free agent right until the close of bidding.

A finger injury to Ervin Santana, which required surgery and will shelve him for at least the month of April, only exacerbated the club’s need to add arms to the rotation. Minnesota capitalized on the Rays’ need to cut payroll and a stagnant free-agent market to acquire Jake Odorizzi on the cheap and to sign Lance Lynn to a one-year, $12MM deal that seemed unthinkable just four months prior.

While both Odorizzi and Lynn are likely mid-rotation arms, at best, they’ll play a critical role in stabilizing the starting staff — especially now that Santana’s injury may sideline him longer than initially had been hoped. Odorizzi is controllable through the 2019 season, and while Lynn will presumably depart after his lone season in Minneapolis, he can potentially be replaced by Michael Pineda, whom the Twins guaranteed $10MM with an eye toward their 2019 rotation.

The bullpen, too, was in dire need of augmentation. Minnesota relievers ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.40 ERA last season and weren’t any better in terms of FIP (4.50, 23rd) or xFIP (4.49, 22nd). Beyond that, the departure of veteran Matt Belisle, who quietly rebounded from a dismal month of May to post terrific numbers down the stretch, only thinned out the relief unit.

Addison Reed looked poised to secure at least a three-year pact in free agency, but his market stalled a bit. While relievers were flying off the board and cashing in on significant annual paydays at the Winter Meetings — the relief market was the one facet of free agency that was mostly healthy this winter — Reed remained unsigned. Roughly a month later, he inked a surprising two-year deal with the Twins, though he’s openly acknowledged that geographic limitations impacted his market. Specifically, Reed had his sights set on signing with a team in the Midwest, he told the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier last month.

The Twins also brought in a pair of veterans on affordable one-year deals, inking Fernando Rodney to serve as the closer and Zach Duke to help counteract opposing lefties. While Rodney had a characteristic up-and-down season with the D-backs last year, his velocity and ability to miss bats held strong. Bringing him in to work the ninth inning frees up the Twins to use their best relievers — Reed and 2017 breakout rookie Trevor Hildenberger — more flexibly in high-leverage setup spots.

Logan Morrison | Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Despite a clear need for pitching, though, the Twins had one spot in their lineup that looked questionable. Minnesota designated hitters combined for just a .237/.328/.383 slash last season, and for much of the winter it looked as if OBP-challenged slugger Kennys Vargas and light-hitting on-base machine Robbie Grossman would receive the bulk of the duties there.

A match with Logan Morrison looked more and more like an on-paper fit as the slugger’s market failed to develop, though, and the Twins were able to scoop him up at a reasonable rate for the 2018 season. If Morrison can come anywhere close to last year’s .353 OBP and 38 homers, the Twins will be happy to see his $8MM option vest.

Questions Remaining

For as much as Minnesota accomplished this offseason, there are still plenty of questions surrounding the club. Odorizzi and Lynn are quality additions to the rotation at a reasonable price, but the starting unit as a whole still looks shaky — especially without Santana’s consistency. Jose Berrios tossed his first career shutout to kick off what the Twins hope will be a breakout season, but he’s the team’s best shot at having a true upper-echelon pitcher. If he takes only a small step forward (or worse), then the collection of Berrios, Odorizzi, Lynn, Kyle Gibson and (eventually) Santana looks more like a collection of fourth starters than a legitimately competitive playoff rotation.

Odorizzi and Lynn have been much more than that in the past, but both pitchers saw their walk and home-run rates spike last season. Fielding-independent pitching metrics pegged both Lynn and Odorizzi’s actual run-prevention skills more than a full run worse than their otherwise appealing ERA totals. The Twins have plenty of options in the upper minors, and perhaps Gonsalves, Romero or a sleeper prospect will burst onto the scene and strengthen the group. But as it stands, the rotation looks improved but hardly overpowering.

Minnesota also received a tough blow late in Spring Training with the news that starting shortstop Jorge Polanco tested positive for a PED and will miss the first half of the season while serving an 80-game suspension. The former top 100 prospect had a huge second half last season and was being counted on as a significant factor in the team’s lineup. Instead, utility man Eduardo Escobar will get the lion’s share of reps at short to begin the year. Escobar packs more punch than most utility options, but he’s struggled to remain consistent. Light-hitting defensive specialist Ehire Adrianza will receive more at-bats as well in Polanco’s absence.

Questions persist throughout the young core of position players as well, though that reportedly didn’t stop the team from trying (without success) to broker some extensions. Can Buxton hit like he did over the final four and a half months of the 2017 season and truly establish himself as one of the American League’s star players? Is Rosario capable of repeating his 2017 power surge? Will Kepler figure out how to hit left-handed pitching or is he primarily a platoon option with above-average glovework? There was a cloud hanging over Sano’s head all offseason in the wake of troubling assault allegations brought forth by a former Twins photographer, though MLB deemed that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to issue a suspension. He’ll now need to put that past him and remain healthy for a full season for the first time in his young big league career.

Perhaps the greatest question facing the Twins, though, is what will become of Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer following the ’18 season. Both are set to hit free agency, and Dozier in particular sounded frustrated by the team’s lack of engagement in extension talks. The former eighth-round pick has broken out as a legitimate star in recent seasons but somewhat bluntly told reporters that the team doesn’t seem especially interested in talking long-term. Whether that’s because of Dozier’s asking price or because Minnesota is wary of his age and prefers to turn the middle infield over to Polanco and top prospect Nick Gordon (and, eventually, 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis) isn’t clear. But Dozier has very arguably become the face of this franchise, and the lack of extension talks already didn’t sit well with fans. He’ll assuredly receive a qualifying offer if he posts a typical season, which he’ll almost certainly reject. The question then will become if the Twins are willing to match the top open-market bid he receives.

The decision on Mauer, who quietly had a strong rebound season in 2017, is also difficult. The 35-year-old won’t break the bank in free agency considering the devaluation of corner bats, his age and his strong preference to remain in Minnesota — where he was born, raised and starred in high school before being drafted first overall in 2001. But the Twins have to weigh whether they’re better off retaining Mauer into his late 30s, even if it’s at a limited rate of pay, or instead turning things over to a younger player — be it Morrison or perhaps Sano, following a shift across the diamond.

Perhaps Mauer would sign on for a part-time role, but teams are increasingly reluctant to dedicate bench spots to players who can only fill one position on the diamond. Mauer has briefly dabbled in the outfield in the past, but he certainly won’t return to catching following the concussion issues that prompted his initial move to first base.

Overview

While their pursuit of the biggest fish in the free-agent pond didn’t prove fruitful, the Twins capitalized on the weak market for free agents as well or better than any team in the league and entered the 2018 campaign with a considerably deeper roster. They’ll play more than 50 games against the trio of the Tigers, Royals and White Sox as they chase the Indians for the AL Central crown. The weakness of the division alone should help the Twins to remain in the Wild Card race, but they’ll need some big steps forward from the likes of Berrios, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Sano to be a legitimate division threat.

That’s certainly possible, and if any of that group falters or falls to injury, the Twins will likely have the capacity to further stretch payroll and bolster the roster midseason. Taking on longer-term deals won’t be a major issue, as their long-term payroll ledger is among the cleanest in baseball (zero dollars guaranteed beyond 2019). Paired with a quality farm system and the aforementioned young core, the Twins look poised to be contenders in the Central for the foreseeable future as several of their rivals rebuild.

How do you think the offseason went for Minnesota? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.) 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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