- While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
Twins Rumors
Twins Sign Jim Miller, Leandro Castro To Minors Deals
- The Twins signed veteran right-hander Jim Miller to a minor league deal, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter link). The 34-year-old was a solid member of the Athletics’ bullpen back in 2012 (2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 innings) but has seen scarce MLB action since — most recently with the Yankees in 2014. Miller has a 3.48 ERA in 67 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer and figures to head to Triple-A as a depth option for the Twins following a very strong showing in the independent Atlantic League last year. Miller fired 25 shutout innings and posted a 24-to-2 K/BB ratio for the Somerset Patriots.
- The Twins also added another player from the indy circuit, purchasing the contract of outfielder Leandro Castro from the Can-Am League’s Rockland Boulders, as the Boulders announced yesterday. The 27-year-old Castro, a former Phillies farmhand, saw his career sputter at the Triple-A level in 2013-14 but has turned in a consecutive pair of excellent seasons in independent ball. Castro hit .322/.364/.530 with 13 homers and 21 steals for the New Jersey Jackals of the Can-Am League in 2015 and batted a combined .316/.355/.524 between the American Association’s Laredo Lemurs and the aforementioned Boulders this past season. Though he never generated all that much prospect fanfare, Castro did rank in the back third of the Phillies’ top 30 prospects from 2009-11, per Baseball America. BA rated him 24th in the Phillies system prior to the 2012 season and pegged him as a fourth outfielder with solid-average speed but not enough bat to profile in a corner slot.
Resolution On Dozier Trade Talks Expected Soon
4:05pm: Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that the Twins are planning to wrap up talks one way or another out of respect for Dozier in the near future. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes that there’s agreement throughout the organization that it’s not fair to Dozier nor is it beneficial to the team to allow the uncertainty to drag out much longer. Both reporters note that there’s been no definitive deadline for a decision set by the team.
10:03am: Trade talks regarding star Twins second baseman Brian Dozier are expected to wrap up within the week, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Whether and where he’ll be dealt remain to be seen, but it appears that Minnesota will make a final call well before the opening of Spring Training.
Last we heard, the Twins were said to asking interested organizations to place their final bids for the slugging second bagger. We haven’t heard any indication yet of how that effort is proceeding, but Morosi does note that the Dodgers (quite unsurprisingly) remain involved.
Indeed, it’s fair to wonder whether any other organizations are truly interested in making a competitive run at Dozier. If not, it may simply come down to a test of willpower (and baseball valuations) between the Minnesota and Los Angeles front offices.
So, what to make of this renewed indication that the clock is ticking on any move involving Dozier? Perhaps, it’s a negotiating tactic designed to drive the action and boost a possible return. But it could also legitimately suggest that the Twins’ front office is as torn on the subject as is the MLBTR readership; we may need to hold a recount of yesterday’s poll asking whether Dozier will end up changing hands over the offseason.
Of course, even if Dozier is still a Twin this time next week, it’s wise never to say never in the arena of player transactions. Spring Training injuries routinely open new avenues for trades, of course, or an organization can simply reevaluate its situation. As the stunning, Opening Day-eve Craig Kimbrel swap shows, deals can come together at just about any time.
MLBTR Poll: Will The Twins Trade Brian Dozier?
We’ve heard plenty over recent weeks about the Twins’ negotiations with rival clubs over star second baseman Brian Dozier. Minnesota reportedly asked interested suitors for their final offers in late December, but nothing more has emerged since (at least, not yet).
The Dodgers have been tied most heavily, and probably represent the cleanest fit. But the two organizations are said to be haggling over a complementary piece to accompany intriguing righty Jose De Leon, who’d seem to represent a worthwhile centerpiece. We’ve heard suggestions that the division-rival Giants could also be involved, though it has never been apparent whether San Francisco is fully engaged on Dozier. Likewise, the Cardinals and Nationals have been mentioned as possibilities, but it’s questionable at best whether either could represent a serious pursuer. There are a few other organizations that seem like hypothetical matches on paper, but we have yet to hear any suggestion of broader interest.
That’s hardly an optimal situation for the Twins, who would obviously prefer to see some bidding on a player who has compiled about 14 fWAR over the last three seasons and is owed just $15MM for his age-30 and 31 seasons. While it’s fair to wonder whether Dozier can maintain anything like the power surge he showed last year (.278 ISO, 42 home runs), he’s not dependent upon gaudy dinger tallies for all of his value. Dozier also rates as an outstanding overall baserunner and solid-enough up-the-middle defender, and has never slipped below league-average offensive production since establishing himself in the majors, so there’s a solid floor to go with his newly established ceiling.
All said, it would be hard for Minnesota to part with that package for anything less than what it deems to be fair value. If that can’t be found now, then perhaps the organization will just have to take Dozier into the season and take on the risks of waiting for a trade-deadline deal. That approach has paid off in some cases (Cole Hamels, Jonathan Lucroy) while backfiring in others (Tyson Ross). Ultimately, if the Giants aren’t willing to push the envelope, and no additional teams step into the fray, then this may simply turn into a staring contest between Derek Falvey and Andrew Friedman.
So, MLBTR readers, what do you think is most likely? Will the Twins strike a deal at some point in the coming weeks, or will Dozier still be at second base in Minnesota for the coming season (or, at least, part of it)? (Link for app users.)
3 Remaining Needs: American League Central
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
So far, we’ve checked in on the NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the AL Central, a division which features the reigning league champions…
- Outfield Depth: The Indians are fine on paper with Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer representing their primary outfield options, but there’s uncertainty surrounding Brantley. The star-caliber performer from 2014-15 missed all but 11 games last season because of a shoulder injury, and while he and the team are optimistic about his status, “better safe than sorry” applies. With that in mind, the Indians have been connected to free agents like Rajai Davis, a member of the Tribe in 2016, and Michael Saunders. Davis would be the more realistic acquisition, but Cleveland’s payroll limitations are standing in the way of a deal. Whether it’s Davis or someone else, though, having another outfielder – one who’s more established than Abraham Almonte – would be nice.
- Left-Handed Reliever: Again, after winning the Edwin Encarnacion sweepstakes, the Indians might not have the financial freedom to do much else. Nevertheless, they have been in the market for a left-handed reliever, perhaps to take some pressure off Andrew Miller late in games. While Miller is arguably the best reliever in the sport, the Indians will have to monitor his workload to some degree next season after their liberal usage of him last year.
- Utility Infielder: As you can probably tell, the Indians aren’t exactly loaded with weaknesses; hence the “need” to add competition for a reserve infield spot. After a strong season at Triple-A Columbus, Erick Gonzalez is the front-runner to serve as a backup to the Indians’ high-caliber group of infield starters. Michael Martinez could push for a spot, but he has been a woeful hitter in his major league career (.197/.241/.266 in 578 plate appearances). Signing a cheap free agent to vie for a role might not be a bad idea, then.
- Cut Payroll: General manager Al Avila made it clear at the outset of the offseason that the Tigers, who exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2016, need to scale back their spending. Trading on-the-block outfielder J.D. Martinez and his $11.75MM salary would help in that regard, but it would subtract a key piece from what should be a playoff-contending roster. It would be far more beneficial for Detroit’s chances in 2017 to somehow jettison at least one of Anibal Sanchez ($21MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2018) or Mike Pelfrey ($8MM). Teams have checked in on the two right-handers this offseason, but it’s unclear if serious talks have developed.
- Center Field: While the Tigers shed money earlier in the offseason in trading Cameron Maybin to the Angels, doing so left them devoid of even a somewhat proven center fielder. In the wake of Maybin’s exit, Avila said last month he’s seeking center field help “on every front,” as his top in-house choices for next season are Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones and Anthony Gose. Free agency offers some veterans who shouldn’t cost much in ex-Tiger Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos and Desmond Jennings, among others, though Avila acknowledged that acquiring a center fielder via trade is a possibility.
- Figure Out The Bullpen: This is mostly in reference to left-handed reliever Justin Wilson, who has drawn significant interest on the trade market this offseason. As is the case with Martinez, though, shipping Wilson out would damage Detroit’s chances of contending in 2017. Plus, Wilson isn’t even particularly expensive (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts a $2.7MM arbitration award). The Tigers are also listening to offers for right-hander Shane Greene, but they’re better positioned to absorb losing him with righties like Francisco Rodriguez, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and minor league destroyer Joe Jimenez in the fold. On the other hand, the only non-Justin Wilson southpaw reliever on their projected 25-man roster is Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf.
- Bullpen: Like Cleveland and Detroit, Kansas City is another AL Central team dealing with payroll constraints. The Royals aren’t eager to tear things down, though, which would be an easy route to take for a team with so many integral players entering contract years. One of those cogs, closer Wade Davis, is now gone. GM Dayton Moore sent him to the Cubs for a major league contributor – and one with high upside – in outfielder Jorge Soler, which saved the Royals $7MM. That was a sound move by the Royals, but they now have a gaping hole in their bullpen because of it. As a result, they’re searching for a late-game complement to Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, with longtime Royals and now-free agents Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar on the radar.
- Starting Pitcher: Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee combined for 314 1/3 innings last year – albeit not overly effective ones – and are now out of the organization. The Royals’ depth has taken a hit, then, and they’re on track to rely on Matt Strahm – who was brilliant in relief in 2016 – and 2015 Tommy John surgery recipient Jason Vargas to step into their starting five alongside Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. That quintet has the potential to succeed, but the club should protect against injuries and/or underwhelming performances with an outside acquisition who’s an upgrade over the likes of Chris Young and Mike Minor. Jason Hammel is reportedly an option if his price comes down enough, but that seems like a long shot. If so, there are several other veteran starters on the open market who will come at lesser costs should the Royals look to bolster their rotation depth.
- Middle Infielder: With Whit Merrifield and 2016 third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert around, the Royals might be able to address this concern from within. That would be ideal for an organization whose other middle infielders scuffled last season. Shortstop Alcides Escobar (.261/.292/.350 in 682 PAs), second baseman Raul Mondesi (.185/.231/.281 in 149 PAs) and backup Christian Colon (.231/.294/.293 in 161 PAs) brought nothing to the table at the plate in 2016.
- Keep Dealing Veterans: GM Rick Hahn said last summer that the White Sox’s direction for 2017 would become obvious early in the offseason. True to his word, Hahn shipped out ace Chris Sale and outfielder Adam Eaton for a cavalcade of touted prospects at the Winter Meetings, thereby announcing that Chicago’s in a rebuild. Sale and Eaton probably aren’t going to be the last known commodities to leave the organization via trade in the coming months, either, as front-line starter Jose Quintana, third baseman Todd Frazier, first baseman Jose Abreu, closer David Robertson and outfielder Melky Cabrera are also available.
- Outfield: The likes of Avisail Garcia, Charlie Tilson and Jason Coats will compete for starting roles alongside Cabrera in left, while waiver claim Rymer Liriano (.220/.289/.266 in his 121-PA major league debut last season) is set to serve as depth. That’s an unspectacular collection of players, clearly, and even the 24-year-old Tilson – the youngest of the bunch – merely projects as a reserve or below-average regular, according to FanGraphs prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. Given the state of the franchise, the White Sox don’t need to make a splash with a big-time outfield pickup, but finding someone to supplement their current group via free agency would be sensible. Adding an inexpensive outfield bat this offseason might serve a purpose around next summer’s trade deadline, where the White Sox could flip that player for another prospect(s) if he shows well.
- Catcher: The White Sox aren’t exactly in great shape behind the plate with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith as their top options at the moment. The 24-year-old Narvaez has more upside than Smith, 28, though the former doesn’t have an overly promising track record as either a hitter or pitch framer. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions, but the White Sox could benefit from Matt Wieters’ decision. If he signs with the Braves, for instance, the Sox would be wise to at least inquire about their former backstop, Atlanta’s Tyler Flowers. On the other hand, the Nationals could shop one of their well-regarded veteran framers – Derek Norris or Jose Lobaton – if they sign Wieters. White Sox pitchers have lost a lot of strikes lately because of subpar framing, so finding a backstop capable of aiding young starters like Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez would be logical.
- Decide Brian Dozier’s Fate: The Twins’ star second baseman has been on the block throughout the offseason, and a resolution finally looks imminent. New Twins front office bosses Derek Falvey (chief baseball officer) and Thad Levine (general manager) have asked teams to submit their final offers for Dozier and will soon determine whether to trade him. Minnesota is arguably in a win-win position with Dozier, as it’ll either land a high-end prospect (or more) for him or retain one of the sport’s best second baseman for at least a bit longer. The Brewers were in a similar position last year with catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who didn’t go anywhere in the offseason despite myriad rumors. Milwaukee then shipped him to Texas during the summer for a prospect bounty. Dozier, like Lucroy last winter, has two years of team control left at a palatable price tag ($15MM combined).
- Starting Pitching: The Twins have asked teams for controllable starting pitching in their Dozier talks, and they might secure a potential long-term piece in Jose De Leon if a deal with the Dodgers materializes. Otherwise, the Twins have shown interest this offseason in low-cost veterans like Clayton Richard, who re-signed with the Padres, and Justin Masterson. The club has four veteran starters in Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, and acquiring a fifth could lead to all three of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia receiving further seasoning at the Triple-A level.
- Bullpen: Levine revealed a couple weeks ago that Minnesota is searching for experienced late-game arms, and there are a slew of those available in free agency. Even though the Twins aren’t contenders, offering a veteran a prominent eighth- or ninth-inning role could entice one to join the club. The rebuilding Twins could then shop that player as the season progresses if he fares nicely.
Olney: Twins Gambling In Waiting On Dozier Trade
- The Twins have some leverage in shopping Brian Dozier since, as the slugging second baseman is under contract for two more affordable years, Minnesota can simply keep Dozier in the fold if it can’t find an acceptable trade offer for him this winter. In his latest subscription-only column, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney warns that waiting to find a perfect deal for Dozier is something of a risk for the Twins, as Dozier’s value may never be higher than it is right now. Dozier is prone to extended slumps (he hit very poorly in the last two months of the 2015 season and in the first two months of the 2016 season) that could lower his trade value if he gets off to another slow start.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/16
We’ll keep tabs on the day’s minor moves here:
- Lefty Nick Greenwood has agreed to re-sign with the Twins on a minor-league arrangement, MLBTR has learned. The 29-year-old control artist has 36 MLB frames under his belt. He has allowed 21 earned runs on 38 hits and six home runs in that stretch, with just 17 strikeouts, but he also issued only five walks. Greenwood had spent his entire career with the Cardinals organization before 2016, when he hooked on with Minnesota on a minors pact after a brief indy ball stint. He showed well, especially over his 79 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level (where he worked to a 2.84 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9), but never got the call back to the bigs. Greenwood will hope to repeat that solid work and perhaps earn another shot at the majors in 2017.
Twins Reportedly Asking Teams For Final Offers On Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier’s name has been a focal point of the rumor mill for the better part of a month, but his prolonged saga may be drawing to a close, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins have asked interested teams to make their best offers for Dozier in the coming days. According to Neal, Minnesota doesn’t want the scenario to drag on too much longer and will prepare to open the 2017 season with Dozier as the second baseman if no palatable offer surfaces.
Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. The Twins, meanwhile, have understandably been insistent on the inclusion of at least one more well-regarded prospect. The Dodgers “haven’t blinked,” however, according to Neal. That lines up with this week’s report from FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the Dodgers aren’t willing to include any of Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon in a trade to acquire Dozier.
Other teams to express interest in Dozier at some point this winter include the Giants, Cardinals, Nationals and Braves, per Neal. However, there’s been very little chatter surrounding the Giants’ interest in recent weeks, while reports out of St. Louis and out of D.C. have suggested that interest from those teams may be somewhat overstated. ESPN’s Mark Saxon reported earlier this week that while the Cardinals may have some interest, they’re not actively pursuing Dozier. More recently, he tweeted that the Cardinals’ reported interest was part of the Twins’ effort “to extract max value from the Dodgers.” Meanwhile, Chelsea Janes from the Washington Post reported this week that any inquiries made on the Nationals’ behalf haven’t been serious in nature.
Atlanta hasn’t been mentioned too often as a potential landing spot for Dozier, though there’s certainly a reasonable fit there. Jace Peterson projects as the everyday second baseman at the moment, but Dozier’s bat would represent a marked upgrade. Adding Dozier would run somewhat counter to many of the Braves’ recent maneuverings on the trade market, which have generally taken a more long-term focus, though Atlanta did send three mid-level prospects to the Cardinals to acquire Jaime Garcia. Of course, Dozier would require top-tier young talent, and there’s been no indication that the Braves are willing to deal that type of talent for shorter-term gains.
While it’s certainly possible that one of these teams steps up and makes an offer to rival the Dodgers, or that another surprise suitor emerges from the woodwork, it seems that the likeliest scenario for a Dozier trade would simply be for the Twins and Dodgers to find a common ground. Neal notes that if the Twins were going to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap, Dozier would’ve been dealt by now, which indicates that a trade would probably require L.A. to improve its current offer.
Considering the fact that Dozier is controlled for another two seasons at a total of $15MM, the Twins don’t need to simply take the best offer that someone puts on the table. While many point to Dozier’s prodigious second half in 2016, he’s somewhat quietly been a very good player for Minnesota over the past four seasons, averaging 4.1 fWAR and 4.5 rWAR per year in that time. The Twins could well hold onto Dozier until the trade deadline, when a larger market for his services — due to injuries to and/or underperformance from second basemen around the league –could emerge. Of course, in doing so, they run the risk that Dozier has another poor start to the season, as he did in 2016, or that he incurs an injury himself.
Heyman’s Latest: Encarnacion, Trumbo, Jays, Moss, Napoli, Dozier, Padres
In the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s signing, there are now a whole lot of power hitters who could be next in line to sign. That situation provides much of the impetus behind the latest notes column from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. You’ll want to read the whole thing to get his full take on the market, but here are a few notable items of information:
- The Athletics’ entry into the chase for Encarnacion helped push the action that led to his signing, per Heyman. Oakland proposed two separate scenarios, he notes, one of which would’ve been a straight two-year, $50MM deal and the other of which would have tacked on a third-year option in exchange for an opt-out clause. Before those offers pushed the Indians to boost their own deal, Encarnacion had been fielding many less-desirable possible arrangements. Indeed, the Blue Jays were mostly engaged with their former star on one-year possibilities most recently, Heyman notes.
- With Encarnacion now off to Cleveland, the many remaining sluggers will be looking to land with a variety of other suitors. Heyman suggests that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers are all “very likely” to add bats, while listing a number of other teams that could get involved as well. That includes the Rays, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies, each of whom has at least some interest in the remaining market.
- Mark Trumbo is probably now the player with the highest earning capacity who has yet to sign, but his landing spot remains hard to peg. Beyond the Orioles and Rockies, Heyman says, “a couple more opportunities may have cropped up” of late.
- It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays will punt a pick to sign Jose Bautista (which they’d technically be doing, as they’d no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere), he adds, even if he’s now available on a one-year pact. Toronto does need to make some outfield additions, though, and Heyman writes that the club has kept tabs on free agents Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, along with “many others.” The Orioles are also said to have interest in Saunders, as has been suggested previously, and Heyman suggests that the Phillies — who’d prefer to add a lefty bat — have some interest in Moss.
- Mike Napoli was said to be seeking a three-year deal earlier this winter, but this report now indicates that he’s seeking a two-year contract, which seems quite a bit more plausible. The Rangers are reportedly a “strong possibility” for Napoli, though Heyman notes the possibility of the ever-popular “mystery team” in Napoli’s market, suggesting that Napoli has at least one suitor that has yet to be linked to him publicly.
- While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
- In addition to Jered Weaver, veteran right-handers Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are on the Padres’ radar. Peavy would love the opportunity to return to San Diego, where he established himself as a star and won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. I’ll point out that Lewis, too, has some connections to the Padres, as GM A.J. Preller was in the Rangers’ front office when Lewis returned from Japan and cemented himself as a Major League-caliber arm.
Latest On Brian Dozier
TODAY: St. Louis is not “actively” working to acquire Dozier, per ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon (via Twitter).
YESTERDAY, 8:55pm: Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets that the Nationals haven’t made any “serious” inquiries in Dozier. That could suggest that the Nats at least did some due diligence and checked in on the asking price, but with no natural fit for Dozier in D.C., it doesn’t seem they’re in hot pursuit. For those speculating on other possible landing spots for Dozier, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Braves aren’t in on Dozier, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that the Athletics aren’t in play either.
3:56pm: The Cardinals and Nationals are both among the teams showing interest in Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link). The Cardinals are “very much in” the mix for the slugger, while the Nats “remain in dialogue” with the Twins. The Dodgers and Giants, two clubs previously connected to Dozier (moreso Los Angeles), are also still involved, though the Giants are “trying to get creative” to make a deal work, as per Wolfson.
Multiple teams were known to have checked in on Dozier this winter, which wasn’t surprising given his power explosion last year (42 homers) and very affordable contract ($15MM owed through the 2018 season). While his production over the last four seasons and his relatively low price tag would theoretically make him of interest to any team, the Cards and Nats are both somewhat surprising suitors given their infield surpluses.
St. Louis’ projected starting infield looks like Aledmys Diaz at short, Matt Carpenter at first, Jedd Gyorko at either third or second, perhaps alternating between the two positions to give playing time to Jhonny Peralta at third and Kolten Wong at second. That’s not even counting Carpenter’s own ability to move between second and third, nor does that include first baseman Matt Adams’ availability against righty pitching or the versatile Greg Garcia. One would think that if the Cardinals did acquire Dozier, at least one of these names would be going back to Minnesota — a younger, affordable player like Wong makes the most sense, though that’s just my speculation. Wong’s value is hardly at its peak right now, though, and any trade figures to be centered around young pitching.
Washington seems like even less of a fit, as Daniel Murphy is entrenched at second base, though metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 have long considered Murphy to be a below-average defender there. Acquiring Dozier to play second and moving Murphy to play first isn’t really a fit given the presence of Ryan Zimmerman. While the longtime Nats fixture has been plagued by injuries in recent years and saw his production badly drop off in 2016, Zimmerman is probably too expensive ($46MM through 2019) to simply be relegated to a bench role. The Nats also have third base spoken for in the form of Anthony Rendon.
With the Twins in rebuilding mode, trading Dozier for a wealth of prospects makes sense, though the club hasn’t been thought to be in any particular rush to move their second baseman given his value as an asset. The Dodgers were reportedly willing to offer top pitching prospect Jose De Leon as part of a Dozier trade, though Minnesota has been holding out for more, either from L.A. or another team.