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Twins’ Outfield Depth Gives Front Office Numerous Trade Possibilities

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The Twins entered the offseason with ample payroll room but have mostly stuck to smaller-scale additions. Kyle Farmer was brought in from the Reds to act as shortstop insurance in the event Carlos Correa departed. Christian Vázquez inked a three-year free agent deal to address the catcher situation the front office had prioritized, while Joey Gallo signed a one-year deal two weeks ago.

That latter move added another left-handed bat to what had already been a fairly crowded outfield mix. Even with Mark Contreras designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Twins have nine listed outfielders on their 40-man roster. Six of them hit left-handed, which makes it seem likely they’ll subtract at least one from the group in a deal that nets help elsewhere on the roster.

Most of the attention will be focused on right fielder Max Kepler. He’s the most straightforward trade candidate in the outfield and has drawn some interest earlier in the offseason. Kepler is the most expensive of the group, due at least $9.5MM through the end of next season on the contract extension he signed back in 2019. Controllable via club option through 2024, he has the least amount of contractual control of anyone in the group.

That could all make the 29-year-old Kepler the most likely Twins outfielder to be dealt, but it’s also going to tamp down the appeal he’ll have on the trade market. He’s coming off a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine home runs through 446 plate appearances, his second straight season hitting slightly worse than league average. Kepler’s 36-homer showing from 2019 looks like an outlier. His plus defense in right field, quality plate discipline and perhaps a forthcoming benefit from the limitations on shifting mean he should still have some trade value on his contract, but Minnesota’s not likely to recoup an overwhelming return.

If the offers on Kepler aren’t especially persuasive, could president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their staff turn attention elsewhere? Minnesota has a number of younger outfielders who could instead be made available, particularly if the deal nets them help at shortstop and/or in higher-leverage relief innings.

  • Nick Gordon (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Gordon might be the most appealing of the bunch. A former top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect, his status dipped from 2018-21. Gordon’s bat had seemed to stall out in the upper minors and his middle infield defense wasn’t exceptional enough to overcome it. It seemed as if he could find himself on the roster bubble after a tough rookie season in 2021, but Gordon was a valuable utility option for Minnesota last year. He hit .272/.316/.427 with nine homers in 443 plate appearances. Defensive metrics didn’t love his work up the middle but considered him a roughly average left fielder.

The 27-year-old isn’t entirely without question marks. He has a very aggressive offensive approach that consistently leads to modest walk totals. Some clubs figure to have concerns about how often he’ll maintain a suitable on-base percentage. Yet he’s also shown some defensive flexibility and hit very well when holding the platoon advantage. Last season, Gordon posted a .289/.329/.465 line against right-handed pitching and his 41.5% hard hit rate against northpaws ranked 12th among 299 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. He’s exhausted his minor league option years, meaning he has to stick on the big league roster.

  • Trevor Larnach (controllable through 2027, eligible for arbitration after 2024)

Larnach is also a former first-round pick who was a top minor league talent for a number of seasons. He’s shown solid power and plate discipline in the minors but the production has been more intermittent against big league pitching. The Oregon State product is a .226/.316/.371 hitter in 130 MLB games the past two years. Larnach has walked at a robust 10.2% clip while making plenty of hard contact. He’s offset those promising numbers with a few more grounders than ideal and, more importantly, a strikeout rate pushing 34%.

While he doesn’t have much defensive versatility, Larnach is a quality defender in the corner outfield. He’ll be 26 in February and is still two seasons from qualifying for arbitration. He probably hasn’t done enough to cement himself as an everyday player in the crowded Minnesota outfield but has shown enough promise to believe he could be a quality regular if he can even modestly improve his contact rate. Larnach’s 2022 season ended in June after he underwent surgery to repair a strain in his core muscle. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so it’s possible he heads back to Triple-A St. Paul if he sticks in Minnesota.

  • Alex Kirilloff (controllable through 2027, likely eligible for arbitration after 2023)

Another former first-round draftee and top prospect, Kirilloff hasn’t yet found much MLB success. He’s a .251/.295/.398 hitter in 104 MLB games, a disappointing start for a player whose bat is his carrying tool. It’s obvious Kirilloff’s capable of more if he can stay healthy, though, considering he’s had each of the past two seasons cut short by right wrist issues that necessitated surgery.

Kirilloff is still just 25 and mashed with St. Paul in 2022, posting a .359/.465/.641 line with ten homers in 35 games. That brought his career minor league slash line up to .328/.378/.519 in parts of five seasons. The Minnesota front office may have no interest in selling low on Kirilloff given that kind of offensive upside, but other clubs figure to at least inquire whether they can buy low given his injury issues. He has one option season left.

Wallner is the least established of the group. The former Southern Mississippi star just made it onto the MLB roster as a September call-up. He played 18 games down the stretch. Wallner, who draws praise from prospect evaluators for his power potential, otherwise split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He hit .277/.412/.542 with 32 home runs in 571 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Wallner just turned 25 and still has all three options remaining.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Some teams don’t publicly announce contract terms, or in some cases, even if a manager or a top front office executive (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, or whatever title is given to the lead decision-maker) has been given an extension whatsoever.  As a result, this list of the managers and executives entering the final years of their contracts is somewhat unofficial, as it wouldn’t be surprising if at least a few names on this list are indeed locked up beyond 2023 on pre-existing contracts or on extensions that have yet to be publicly announced.

Naturally, job security goes beyond just the terms of a contract.  One wouldn’t have imagined that the Rangers’ Jon Daniels or the Royals’ Dayton Moore were necessarily on thin ice heading into the 2022 season, yet the two longtime front office bosses were fired before the season was even over, as both Texas and Kansas City underachieved.  Likewise, former Astros GM James Click seemed like a sure bet for a long-term deal given Houston’s success, and yet due to some internal discord with owner Jim Crane, Click ended up leaving after the Astros offered him only (what seemed like a token of a) one-year extension.

The addition of the extra wild card spot could put even more pressure on teams to win, especially since the Phillies’ run from sixth seed to NL champions underlined what can happen if a club can just get into the postseason bracket.  In addition, some of the names on this list face uncertainty due to potential changes in team ownership — and as the Astros showed, no amount of on-field success can help if an owner simply wants someone new in the baseball ops department.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Phil Nevin was moved from third base coach to interim manager when Joe Maddon was fired in June, and Nevin ended up leading the Angels to an underwhelming 46-60 record in his first stint as a big league skipper.  Despite the lack of success, the Halos removed the interim tag by signing Nevin to a one-year deal, giving him a longer (but not much longer) opportunity to see what he can do as the team’s manager.  The Angels organization as a whole is in a fluid state given that a new owner might be running the club by Opening Day or soon thereafter, and yet in what looks to be Arte Moreno’s last offseason as the Halos’ owner, Anaheim has been pretty aggressive in adding roster pieces to try and find that elusive winning mix.  If Nevin can help get Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and company to the playoffs or even over the .500 mark, it will greatly help his case for a long-term contract under the new owner….or, possibly a managerial job elsewhere if the new owner still wants to brings in their own personnel.

Astros: Hired in rather abrupt fashion in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Dusty Baker’s three seasons in Houston have resulted in two World Series appearances, and the 2022 championship represented Baker’s first ring as a manager in 25 seasons in the dugout.  Baker’s initial contract (one year and a club option) has been followed up by successive one-year deals that weren’t finalized until after the Astros’ playoff runs were over, but Crane has repeatedly stated that he prefers to avoid distractions by waiting until after the season to work out contractual matters.  Baker’s age (74 in June) might be another reason why Crane has resisted giving Baker a longer-term deal, so another extension might not come for Baker until October or November.  With the Click situation lingering as an odd footnote to Houston’s championship season, Baker at least seems to have more sway with ownership than the former GM did, yet the Astros might have to keep winning to ensure that Baker is back in 2024.

Athletics: GM David Forst has been a member of Oakland’s front office since 2000, and he’ll now finally take over as the top job in the baseball operations department after Billy Beane moved to an advisory role with the club.  As per the terms of Forst’s last extension, he is signed through the 2023 season, and there wasn’t any word of a new contract attached to the Athletics’ announcement of Forst’s new role.  As the A’s continue to search for a new ballpark in Oakland or a potential move to a new city, there’s a bit of flux involved throughout the organization, yet it would certainly seem like the A’s will continue their tradition of front-office continuity by giving Forst a new deal at some point.  Forst is currently shepherding the Athletics through their latest rebuild, but if an extension wasn’t worked out, he would likely quickly find work elsewhere given how many teams have tried to poach him for other front office vacancies in recent years.

Brewers: Craig Counsell has been managing the Brew Crew since 2015, and 2023 is the final year of the skipper’s current four-year contract.  Milwaukee is an impressive 615-555 under Counsell’s watch, with two NL Central titles, four postseason appearances and a trip to the NLCS in 2018.  However, 2018 was also the last time the Brewers won a playoff series, and the team’s postseason streak ended in 2022 despite a respectable 86-76 record.  It would still seem like Counsell would be a strong candidate to receive an extension, though there’s some uncertainty throughout the organization in the wake of David Stearns’ rather surprising decision to step down as the team’s president of baseball operations.  General manager Matt Arnold is now in charge of the front office, though past reports suggested that Arnold’s own deal only lasts through the 2023 season.  Brewers owner Mark Attanasio could have some inclination to pursue a new direction if the Brewers struggled next year, and if Arnold isn’t seen as a long-term answer, Attanasio could look for a new front office boss as Stearns’ true replacement, and a new PBO or GM might also want to make their own managerial hire.

Cardinals: 2023 is the final season of the three-year extension John Mozeliak signed in November 2019.  A member of the Cardinals organization since 1995 and the head of their front office since the 2007-08 offseason, Mozeliak has been working under the president of baseball operations title since 2017.  Michael Girsch was promoted to the GM role at that same time, and is signed through at least 2024 as per the terms of an extension signed back in October.  With Girsch’s deal in mind, it would seem like Mozeliak will also be extended again, as the Cardinals have enjoyed 15 straight winning seasons and have reached the postseason in each of the last four years.  This being said, the bar for success is always high in St. Louis, and the team hasn’t won a playoff series since 2019 and hasn’t reached the World Series since 2013.

Diamondbacks: Executive VP/general manager Mike Hazen was already under contract through 2020 when he signed a new extension in September 2019, and the length of that new deal wasn’t released.  As such, it is possible 2023 might be Hazen’s final year under contract.  Manager Torey Lovullo’s status is more public, as the D’Backs exercised their club option on his services for 2023.  Since the Diamondbacks haven’t had a winning season since 2019 and haven’t made the postseason since 2017 (Hazen and Lovullo’s first year in Arizona), ownership might be waiting to see if any significant progress is made before exploring an extension for either its GM or manager.

Dodgers: Andrew Friedman came to Los Angeles on a five-year, $35MM contract that covered the 2014-19 seasons, and he then signed a new extension of an unknown length after the 2019 campaign was complete.  If that extension was only a four-year pact, 2023 would be Friedman’s final season as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, barring another new deal.  Despite the relative lack of postseason success in regards to the Dodgers’ dominance of the regular season, Friedman’s tenure has still delivered one World Series title, and it would seem like he has as much job security as anyone in baseball.

Giants: Farhan Zaidi is entering the final season of his five-year contract as San Francisco’s president of baseball operations.  Through two years of rebuilding (and competitive baseball) and then a 107-win season in 2021, it seemed like the Giants had taken a fast track to success, but things took a step backwards with an 81-81 record last year.  Heading into with the winter with an aggressive mandate to spend and attract high-profile talent to the Bay Area, the Giants have added some notable players but fallen short on two superstars — Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees, while Carlos Correa had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact with the Giants before the team delayed finalizing the deal due to concerns stemming from Correa’s physical.  Correa immediately pivoted to the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM contract, and since the Mets reportedly have their own issues with Correa’s lower right leg and ankle, the situation has become less of a fiasco for the Giants than it initially appeared.  Team chairman Greg Johnson gave Zaidi a vote of confidence heading into the offseason, but it remains to be seen if ownership is satisfied with the aftermath of this very unusual winter.

Guardians: There hasn’t yet been any public word on the details of Terry Francona’s extension, but the reigning AL Manager Of The Year has already been confirmed as returning for the 2023 campaign.  Given Francona’s health issues, 2023 could be his final season in the dugout, but the Guardians’ front office and team owner Paul Dolan have both intimated that Francona can remain as manager as long as he is willing and able.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also doesn’t seem to be in any danger, though the longtime Cleveland exec’s contract terms aren’t known.

Marlins: Kim Ng has a 137-188 record over her first two seasons as Miami’s general manager, though as usual with the Marlins, it isn’t clear how much of those struggles are the GM’s fault.  Derek Jeter’s departure as CEO last March left an upper management void within the organization, and while the Marlins have slightly expanded payroll in Ng’s tenure, they are still among the game’s lower spenders.  It could be argued that with Jeter and ex-manager Don Mattingly gone, Ng now freer rein to turn the Marlins in her own direction, beginning with the hiring of Skip Schumaker as the club’s new bench boss.  The terms of Ng’s contract weren’t publicly revealed, so 2023 could conceivably be the final guaranteed year of her deal — if so, some progress might be necessary to keep owner Bruce Sherman from starting yet another rebuild.

Nationals: President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are both only signed through the 2023 season, as the Nationals exercised club options on both men back in July.  Wins and losses aren’t really a factor for the rebuilding Nats, but the ongoing search for a new owner certainly is, though the most recent reports haven’t given any clear timeline on when a sale might be finalized.  As a result, Rizzo and Martinez might each be facing a lame-duck season, with their fates unknown until a new owner is in place.

Orioles: The contract terms of GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde haven’t been publicized, though Hyde’s newest extension runs through at least the 2023 season.  Since the O’s were so quiet about extending Hyde, it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Elias was also extended at some point, continuing a tenure that began with the 2018-19 offseason.  Regardless of the details, it certainly doesn’t seem like either Elias or Hyde are going anywhere, considering how the Orioles had a winning record (83-79) in 2022 and seem ready to put their rebuild firmly in the rearview mirror.

Pirates: Speaking of rebuilds, the Pirates can only hope for a Baltimore-esque breakout next year.  Ben Cherington is entering the fourth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, on a contract of an unknown length.  Manager Derek Shelton is concretely operating on a four-year pact, so 2023 will be his last guaranteed season, though Cherington has spoken glowingly about Shelton’s work in leading the young Bucs through the hard times of the rebuild period.  Extensions would keep Shelton and perhaps Cherington from being lame ducks in 2023, though there doesn’t seem to be any sense that either is in danger of being let go.

Rangers: Chris Young became the Rangers’ GM in December 2020, and he unexpectedly found himself in charge of the front office entirely once Daniels was fired in August.  The terms of Young’s initial contract weren’t known, and it doesn’t seem as though his surprise promotion came with any extra years added onto his deal.  The Rangers’ spending spree over the last two offseasons has left no doubt that ownership wants to win now, so Young’s own job could be in jeopardy if Texas struggles (or perhaps has a slow start) in 2023.  That said, Young’s past history as a player under manager Bruce Bochy surely played a role in convincing Bochy to become the Rangers’ new skipper, so Young has started to make his influence known in the Texas front office.

Reds: David Bell’s two-year contract is up after the 2023 season, which would be Bell’s fifth season as the Reds’ manager.  Cincinnati promoted GM Nick Krall as the leader of the baseball ops department following the 2020 season, and Krall has since been tasked with cutting payroll and setting the Reds on a rebuilding path.  Krall’s contract length isn’t publicly known, so 2023 probably isn’t a make-or-break season for Krall to help his job security, unless the team absolutely craters and the development of the Reds’ younger players hits a roadblock.  The same could be true of Bell, unless the front office feels a new voice is needed in the dugout to continue the progress.

Red Sox: The terms of Chaim Bloom’s contract as Boston’s chief baseball officer aren’t publicly known, though 2023 will be Bloom’s fourth season.  This is a notable threshold considering Bloom’s predecessors in leading the Red Sox front office — Cherington didn’t last four full seasons, while Dave Dombrowski spent slightly over four years on the job, from August 2015 to September 2019.  Those two executives led the Sox to World Series titles in those brief tenures, while under Bloom, the Red Sox have a pair of last-place finishes sandwiched around a berth in the 2021 ALCS.  Assuming ownership is still as impatient to win, Bloom might need the Sox to take a big step up in 2023 in order to keep his job.

Rockies: Bud Black has only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, yet seems to be operating on what The Athletic’s Nick Groke reported as “a rolling year-to-year contract.”  Even considering how the Rockies traditionally operate on a system of loyalty and continuity, one would imagine that a fifth straight losing season might be enough to convince the team to pursue a new manager.

Royals: Similar to the Rangers’ situation with Young, Kansas City GM J.J. Picollo found himself atop the Royals’ baseball ops pyramid when Moore was fired in September, with no word of a contract extension attached to this change in responsibility.  The difference is that Picollo has had a much longer tenure in K.C. (having worked in the front office since 2006 under Moore’s leadership), and while owner John Sherman is undoubtedly eager to start winning, he hasn’t invested the hundreds of millions that the Rangers’ owners have in their struggling club.  Immediate success might not be expected in Picollo’s first year, but his chances of a longer deal might hinge on whether or not the Royals’ younger players start developing at a better rate, or if new manager Matt Quatraro can get more out of the young club.

Twins: The 2022 season completed the guaranteed portion of Rocco Baldelli’s initial contract with the Twins, which was a four-year deal with multiple club options attached.  Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey stated in September that Baldelli would be back next season, so at the very least, the Twins have exercised their option on Baldelli for 2023.  For what it’s worth, Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both under contract through 2024, and it is possible Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli might all be in hot water if the Twins can’t turn things around this coming season.  Minnesota followed up AL Central titles in both 2019 and 2020 with two losing seasons, and another sub-.500 campaign might make Baldelli the first one out the door, given his lesser contractual control.

White Sox: Executive VP Ken Williams (1997) and general manager Rick Hahn (2002) are each long-time members of Chicago’s front office, and have been in their current positions since October 2012.  Since the White Sox don’t publicize executive contracts, not much is known about Williams or Hahn’s status, other than that their last extensions came during the 2017 season.  It’s fair to guess that both might have received new deals since that time, but in any case, it may be a moot point given how owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t quick to make changes in the front office.  The hope is that new manager Pedro Grifol can succeed where Tony La Russa didn’t, and there hasn’t been any sense that Williams or Hahn might be on the hot seat, though that could possibly change if a White Sox team built to win now stumbles again.

Twins Sign Willi Castro To Minor League Deal

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The Twins and utility player Willi Castro are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR Radio North. Castro will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Castro, 26 in April, first cracked the majors with the Tigers in 2019 and has been serving a utility role for them since. He’s shown some exciting raw tools but has generally struggled to fully break out with the bat. In 303 games thus far in his career, he’s hit 24 home runs but walked in just 4.7% of his trips to the plate and struck out in 24.1% of them. His batting line is currently .245/.292/.381 for wRC+ of 86, indicating he’s been 14% below league average. Inconsistency seems to be a factor in his work at the plate, as he’s only in the 10th percentile in terms of barrel rate and hard hit rate but 79th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity. In other words, he can crush the ball but just hasn’t been doing it very often.

But he also has other attributes, besides that intermittent power. His sprint speed is in the 78th percentile in the league, which helped him steal nine bases in each of the past two seasons. He also has defensive versatility, having played all three outfield positions and the three infield positions to the left of first base. His arm strength is ranked in the 87th percentile and his outfielder jump in the 78th. As a switch-hitter, he brings versatility to the other side of his game as well.

Castro crossed the three-year service line in 2022 and was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to a $1.7MM salary in 2023. However, his struggles were enough that the Tigers decided to move on, as they non-tendered Castro at the deadline in November.

For the Twins, they dealt with a mountain of injuries in 2022, making it a logical move to add some depth for 2023. They are loaded with outfielders at the moment, meaning Castro’s best path to retaking a roster spot would likely be the infield. The most likely arrangement on the dirt right now would see Luis Arraez at first base, Jorge Polanco at second, Kyle Farmer at shortstop and Jose Miranda at third. Nick Gordon could be in the utility/bench infielder spot for now, but he’s also in the outfield mix. Royce Lewis could be a factor down the line but he’s recovering from surgery on a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee for a second straight year and isn’t expected back until midseason.

If Castro can earn his way into Minnesota’s plans, he still has an option year remaining, which would allow the club to shuffle him between Triple-A and the majors throughout the year. If he impresses enough to work his way into their future plans, he could be retained at least through 2025 via arbitration.

Twins To Re-Sign Danny Coulombe To Minor League Deal

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The Twins are bringing back left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe on a minor league deal, according to Betsy Helfand of the St-Paul Pioneer Press. The deal comes with an invite to big league spring training. It’s the fourth straight off-season that Coulombe has inked a minor league deal with the Twins.

Originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 25th round of the 2012 draft, Coulombe made his big league debut in 2014. His time in LA would be short lived, as Coulombe would throw just 12 2/3 innings of 6.23 ERA ball before he was sent to Oakland the following year. Over the next few seasons, he’d establish himself as a regular in the A’s bullpen, pitching 130 2/3 innings of 4.06 ERA ball. The strikeout and walk rates would fluctuate a fair bit during this time, but Coulombe would generally strikeout batters at bit above the league-average rate, while giving up free passes a bit more frequently than league-average.

Coulombe, 33, was released by the A’s at the end of the 2018 season, and wouldn’t appear in the big league again until 2020. That year was the first of three (and now four) successive minor league pacts with the Twins where Coulombe would eventually work his way onto the big league roster. Over those three years in Minnesota, Coulombe has tossed 49 1/3 innings and worked to a 2.92 ERA. Advanced metrics have looked a little less favorably on his work, with his FIP over that time sitting at 3.81.

This past season started well enough for Coulombe, cracking the opening day roster. He worked to a 1.46 ERA across 12 1/3 innings of relief, before hitting the IL with a left hip impingement in early May. He was activated towards the end of the month, but a day after coming off the IL he wound up back there with the same left hip impingement. Coulombe would undergo surgery to repair the labrum, ending his season.

Coulombe throws a low-90s fastball, and mixes in a slider and curveball, as well as a changeup that he introduced this past season. Coulombe has been a quietly effective southpaw for the Twins over the past few seasons, and if he can show he’s fully recovered from surgery in spring training, it certainly stands to reason that he could find himself again contributing to the major league team in 2023.

Mets Have “Raised Concerns” Over Carlos Correa’s Physical, Deal Still “Likely”

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Dec 26: Heyman reports that a few teams have “checked in” since the Mets showed concern in the physical. A situation akin to what happened in San Francisco just a week ago does not appear nigh though, as Heyman adds that talks between the Mets and Correa’s camp appear to have been more substantive than what occurred with the Giants in the aftermath of Correa’s physical there.

Dec 24, 2:51pm: According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, a deal with the Mets is still “likely”, although he reports that the contract could be reworked considering the issue. While it’s not known what a reworked contract would look like, it could include altering the duration or financial guarantee of the contract, or rewording it to alter the amount of guaranteed money Correa makes should he miss a period of time due to the specific leg ailment which is causing concern. Rogers adds that there is not a timetable in place to resolve the matter.

10:56am: Carlos Correa’s physical with the Mets has “raised concerns”, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Per the report, the concern centers on Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg. Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets just days after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants fell through over concerns over the physical.

While it’s jarring to hear given the events of the past week, it’s unclear yet what this means for the status of the deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the two parties are currently trying to work through the issue.

Mets owner Steve Cohen has already addressed the deal, telling Heyman earlier this week that “we needed one more thing, and this is it”. That’s particularly significant as, per The Athletic’s report, addressing the deal on the record could make it trickier to back out of the agreement, although there’s nothing to suggest that’s what the Mets are looking to do.

It’s been a fascinating turn of events in Correa’s free agency over the past week. Generally, reported agreements pending a physical have become official without a hitch, but Correa’s has now hit a snag on two separate occasions in the space of a week. Further, he’s one of the top free agents this winter and had agreed to deals worth in excess of $300MM. Correa had agreed to a long-term contract with the Giants on December 13, but that fell over on Monday after the Giants reportedly asked for more time to look into the medicals after finding something that gave them pause. However, agent Scott Boras quickly pivoted and went to the Mets, who quickly agreed to their own long-term deal for $35MM less than the original Giants agreement.

Boras sought to re-engage with the Twins as well after the Giants deal fell through. Per The Athletic’s report, they’d offered him a ten-year, $285MM deal but would have put a greater emphasis on a physical before that deal than the deal he signed with Minnesota earlier in 2022, given the long-term nature of the proposal. The report also adds that after Correa became available again, the Twins were unwilling to alter their initial proposal, and would have wanted to investigate the issues raised in the player’s physical with the Giants.

The Giants have been quiet on the matter. HIPAA laws restrict them from disclosing clear answers about the precise nature of the injury, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did offer a statement: “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination. We wish Carlos the best.”

The Correa camp has denied any cause for concern. Prior to undertaking his physical with the Mets, Boras said “there is nothing with him that is currently any sort of medical issue,” via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He also added that the Giants were trying to use a “crystal ball” to try and predict Correa’s long term health (via Laura Albanese of Newsday).

Various reports have mentioned Correa’s right leg as the source of concern for both the Giants and Mets. Back in 2014, a teenage Correa fractured his right fibula and sustained minor ligament damage while playing in High-A in the Astros organization. That injury required arthroscopic surgery to repair. Correa has missed time for thumb, back and rib issues in the big leagues, but the right leg has never sent him to the injured list in his eight big league seasons.

It is worth remembering that only a few years ago the Mets did pull out of a deal with a player. In 2021, they drafted Kumar Rocker 10th overall and agreed to a $6MM signing bonus, before abandoning the deal after growing concerned by something they saw in the physical. Of course, backing out of a $6MM deal for draft pick and a $315MM contract for an All-Star are two different things, and Cohen’s comments certainly give confidence that a deal can still go through in some form.

It’s the latest twist in what has been a tumultuous time for Correa on the open market. He was the top free agent after departing the Astros last year, but after the long-term deal he sought didn’t eventuate he took a three-year, opt-out laden, $105.1MM deal with the Twins. After earning $35.1MM last season and putting up another strong season he opted out and hit the open market for the second-straight winter. The long-term mega deal he’d been seeking looked to have finally come to fruition when it was reported the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact. That deal fell through, but Correa was able to quickly land a $300MM+ deal with the Mets. While there’s every chance a deal with New York still goes through, there’s at least some doubt now hanging over it.

Carlos Correa Taking Physical With Mets Today

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Carlos Correa is undergoing his physical with the Mets today, agent Scott Boras announced to reporters (including Lindsey Adler of the Wall Street Journal). According to Boras, the Mets are expected to take 24-48 hours to review the results (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

Under normal circumstances, a free agent who has agreed to terms with a team undergoing a physical would hardly be worth noting. In most cases, agreements are reported on before a deal is made official, with the physical a rubber stamp on the way to the official announcement. Of course, the Correa situation has been anything but normal. He agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal — pending a physical — with the Giants on December 13. That was scuttled on Monday evening when the Giants found something in their examination of Correa that gave them pause. They reportedly wanted more time to look into the medicals but Boras quickly pivoted and secured a new deal with the Mets for 12 years and $315MM. It has occasionally happened before that deals have been scuttled by medicals but never with a player or contract of this magnitude.

The Giants are restricted by HIPAA laws from providing clear answers about the precise nature of the injury. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi released a very generic statement on the matter yesterday: “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination. We wish Carlos the best.”

Various reports over the past 24 hours have indicated the Giants raised concerns regarded Correa’s right leg. As a prospect in the Astros organization, a then 19-year-old Correa fractured his right fibula while playing in High-A in June 2014. The injury required surgery and cost him the remainder of that season. Last night, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic wrote about the dilemma and called San Francisco’s concern “pretty obvious” while linking to a 2014 Houston Chronicle story about the fibula fracture.

Jeff Passan of ESPN also indicates the right leg was the issue as part of a wider-ranging piece on the bizarre situation. According to Passan, San Francisco asked Correa’s camp for time to evaluate the issue after identifying their concerns in the physical on Monday night. The team postponed the press conference they’d scheduled Tuesday morning, one clearly designed to formally introduce Correa as a Giant after he signed his contract. That afternoon, the sides reengaged over the phone and the Giants informed Boras they weren’t prepared to keep their 13-year, $350MM offer on the table, Passan writes. San Francisco may have been willing to renegotiate a lower deal, according to Passan, but the decision not to abide by the originally agreed upon terms freed Correa’s camp to explore other opportunities.

In the hours after the Giants deal fell apart, Boras and his staff reached out to both the Mets and Twins. Last night, Andy McCullough, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that Correa’s camp had been in touch with Minnesota before agreeing to terms with the Mets. The Twins, Correa’s incumbent team, had put forth a ten-year, $285MM offer earlier in the offseason. According to both The Athletic and ESPN, Minnesota expressed reluctance to move past that proposal on Tuesday evening — at least not without more time to evaluate the concerns raised by the Giants in their exam.

Not long after, Correa and the Mets hammered out the agreement. Both The Athletic and ESPN characterize negotiations as fairly direct between Boras, New York owner Steve Cohen and Mets general manager Billy Eppler. By the middle of the night, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the sides were in agreement on their 12-year pact. According to McCullough, Rosenthal and Sammon, Mets manager Buck Showalter and numerous other team officials weren’t aware of the extent of negotiations, learning when they woke up Wednesday morning about the agreement.

That’s all subject to the Mets physical evaluation, of course. However, there doesn’t seem to be much concern within the New York organization about Correa potentially failing a second physical. Cohen discussed the agreement on the record with Heyman; as Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday, that’d open the Mets up for a potential grievance if they back out of the deal over concerns about the medicals.

Correa’s camp, predictably, has denied there’s reason for concern. “There is nothing with him that is currently any sort of medical issue,” Boras said this morning, per DiComo. The agent added the Giants were trying to use a “crystal ball” to predict Correa’s long-term health (via Laura Albanese of Newsday).

The right leg that apparently gave the Giants pause has never sent Correa to the injured list as a major leaguer. He missed the second half of the 2014 minor league season recovering from surgery but was back on the field at the start of the following campaign. Correa has had a few injured list stints in the majors, missing time between 2017-19 with a torn ligament in his left thumb, back soreness (twice) and a rib fracture. He also lost a bit of time this past season after bruising his right middle finger. Since making his MLB debut, Correa hasn’t had any IL stints related to his lower half. However, Passan writes that San Francisco’s medical professionals raised concerns about the long-term stability of his right leg, fearing he could quickly lose the lateral mobility that plays such a key role in his defensive projection.

It’s worth pointing out that there is some precedent for the Mets similarly striking down a deal with a player, just as the Giants have done with Correa this week. The Mets selected Kumar Rocker, also represented by Boras, 10th overall in the 2021 draft and agreed to a $6MM signing bonus until they grew concerned by something in his physical and the deal fell apart. Backing out of a $6MM bonus for a draftee and a $315MM agreement with a superstar are two different things, however, and Cohen’s on-record discussions of the Correa agreement reiterate the owner’s confidence in the exam going without issue.

It has been a rollercoaster for Correa over the past two years, having reached free agency for the first time after the 2021 season. He went into the open market seeking a deal of ten-plus years in length and over $300MM but didn’t find one before the sport went into a lockout in December. During that lockout, he fired his representatives and hired Boras. After the lockout, he still didn’t find the megadeal he was looking for, but settled on a three-year contract with Minnesota that paid him a huge $35.1MM annual salary and allowed him to opt out after each season.

After another solid performance in 2022, he returned to the open market and seemed to finally land the deal he wanted with San Francisco. That’s gone but he secured another within hours from the Mets. There’s one step to go, perhaps the most anticipated physical examination in baseball history.

Twins Designate Mark Contreras For Assignment

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The Twins have made their signing of outfielder Joey Gallo official, announcing the move today. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, outfielder Mark Contreras was designated for assignment.

Contreras, 28 in January, has been with the Twins for his entire career so far, having been selected by them in the ninth round of the 2017 draft. He didn’t hit too much in the lower levels but he pushed himself up the ladder with his ability to play all three outfield positions and steal some bases.

Offensively, he seemed to take a step forward when reaching the upper levels, after the minors were cancelled by the pandemic in 2020. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, he hit 20 home runs in 114 games and produced a batting line of .251/.338/.485 for a wRC+ of 117. His 29.6% strikeout rate was certainly on the high side but he also walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances.

In 2022, the Twins dealt with a large number of injuries and had to lean hard on their depth. Contreras got selected to the club’s roster in May and was frequently optioned and recalled throughout the year. He generally seemed overmatched in his first chances against MLB pitching, slashing .121/.148/.293 in 61 plate appearances. In 102 Triple-A games on the year, he hit .237/.317/.418 for a wRC+ of 94. He hit 15 home runs and stole 23 bases but also struck out in 29.6% of his trips to the plate.

Contreras certainly has concerns on his track record, especially with the strikeouts, having never posted a rate lower than 23.7% at any stop in the professional ranks. However, there are reasons to think he could garner interest from other clubs around the league. For one thing, he still has a couple of option years, meaning he can be stashed in the minors as depth. He also has some intriguing tools, especially outside of the batter’s box. All three of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a positive grade for his outfield work this year. Statcast also ranks him in the 90th percentile in terms of arm strength and the 80th in terms of sprint speed.

In terms of his work at the plate, while he didn’t connect much, he did do some noticeable damage when he did. Statcast ranked him in the 56th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity and he somehow tops the leaderboard in terms of barrels per plate appearance, minimum of 25 batted ball events, just ahead of Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Mike Trout. That’s a tiny sample but an interesting one nonetheless. With so many teams looking for left-handed hitting outfielders, he’s sure to draw some interest, just based on his speed and defense alone. If there’s some sneaky power in there as well, that’ll only make him more attractive. The Twins will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers.

Twins Sign Joey Gallo To One-Year Deal

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December 20: The Twins have officially announced Gallo’s signing.

December 16: The Twins are reportedly in agreement with outfielder Joey Gallo on a one-year deal that will pay him $11MM. The two-time All-Star is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Gallo, 29, has occasionally been one of the most fearsome sluggers in the league but is coming off a rough stretch. With the Rangers from 2017 to 2019, he was the poster boy for the three true outcomes: home run, strikeout and walk. In that three-year stretch, he struck out in 36.8% of his plate appearances while the league averages in that time hovered around 22%. His 14.3% walk rate was well beyond the 8.5% league average in that time. He also launched 103 home runs over that stretch, leading to a batting line of .217/.336/.533. Despite the huge punch-out totals, that production was 20% above league average, as evidenced by his 120 wRC+.

The seasons since haven’t been quite as smooth, however. In the shortened 2020 season, Gallo hit .181/.301/.378 for a wRC+ of 86. He seemed to bounce back in the first half of 2021, as he was sitting on a line of .223/.379/.490 for a wRC+ of 138 when the Rangers traded him to the Yankees. Unfortunately, he swooned in the Bronx, hitting .160/.303/.404 after the deal, 95 wRC+. He couldn’t quite correct course this year, as his first 82 games led to a .159/.282/.339 line and 82 wRC+ before the Yanks flipped him to the Dodgers at the deadline. The move to Hollywood didn’t change much, as he hit .162/.277/.393 as a Dodger for a wRC+ of 91.

Though those sub-Mendoza batting averages are certainly unpleasant to the eye, there’s plenty of reason to think he could get the train back on the tracks. For one thing, he’s still young, having just turned 29 last month. He also still knocks the snot out of the ball, as his hard hit percentage was in the 94th percentile in 2022, his barrel rate in the 98th and his max exit velocity 89th. The upcoming rules banning defensive shifts are likely to help him out as well, since he bats from the left side. According to Statcast, Gallo is shifted in 90% of his plate appearances, one of the 20 highest such rates in the league.

Even if he can’t bounce back at the plate, he can still be a valuable player due to his strong defense. He’s been given a positive grade in the outfield by Defensive Runs Saved in each season of his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average only gave him a negative number in 2022. For his outfield work as a whole, he has 43 DRS, 19 UZR and 7 OAA. Even though his bat was subpar all year in 2022, he was still worth 0.6 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs. In 2021, when he was good at the plate with Texas but bad with the Yanks, he was worth 4.2 fWAR.

For the Twins, Gallo should slot into one of the outfield corners, with Byron Buxton in center. This only adds to a cluttered outfield mix, as the club has many options on its roster. It was reported last week that the club is getting trade interest in Max Kepler, as they also have Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras in their outfield mix. Some of those players can also play the infield, but it’s quite the crowded dance floor. With Gallo now added into the mix, it would seem to make a trade of Kepler or someone else more likely.

The Twins should still have payroll space available, as most of their offseason has been geared around a pursuit of Carlos Correa. The club reportedly made him an offer of $285MM over 10 years, or $28.5MM per season, though he instead signed with the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. The Twins have now given $11MM to Gallo instead, taking a chance that he can rediscover some of his previous form in a new environment. This move brings the club’s payroll up to $118MM, per Roster Resource. The club’s franchise record for an Opening Day payroll was the $134MM figure they ran out in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year, they still have about $16MM to work with, though Kepler will have an $8.5MM salary in 2023 as well as a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option. Moving him could create some extra payroll space unless they also take on some salary in the trade.

Despite unexpectedly landing a star like Correa for 2022, the Twins disappointed by finishing 78-84, 14 games back of the Guardians in the American League Central. They will now have to try to figure out how to be better without Correa in 2023. Better health would be one way, as they suffered an incredible number of injuries in 2022. Another path might be to reallocate his $35.1MM salary into multiple players and hope for surplus value, with Gallo now one of them.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gallo and the Twins agreed at $11MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the one-year agreement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Interested In Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock

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Justin Turner and AJ Pollock are among the veteran free agents under consideration by the Twins as they look to further bolster their lineup, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Of note, Hayes’ piece was written yesterday prior to Minnesota’s signing of Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11MM contract — Gallo was also listed as a player the Twins were targeting, though his addition could change the equation for other pickups.

In particular, Pollock might no longer be on the radar given how Minnesota’s outfield picture was already pretty crowded even before Gallo joined the roster.  Gallo, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick are all outfield options for 2023, plus the versatile Nick Gordon could also get some time on the grass when he isn’t in the infield.

That said, there has been some trade speculation surrounding Kepler, and Gallo’s deal might be some hint that the Twins could view Gallo as something of a Kepler replacement.  Furthermore, Buxton, Celestino, and Garlick are the only right-handed hitters within that large outfield grouping, so acquiring Pollock would add more lineup balance and depth at all three outfield positions (though Pollock is no longer a defensive standout at any spot).

The Twins got a close look at Pollock when he played for the division rival White Sox last season, but they hardly saw the veteran at his best.  Pollock’s 92 wRC+ was his lowest in a full season since 2013, and he hit only .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances.  Since he is entering his age-35 season, there is surely concern among some teams that Pollock has started to decline.

On the plus side, Pollock’s overall Statcast numbers were pretty decent, with an above-average strikeout rate and hard-contact numbers.  While his .317 xwOBA was nothing special, his .297 wOBA indicates some degree of bad luck.  Furthermore, Pollock’s overall batting line only took a hit against right-handed pitching — he had a .935 OPS in 133 PA against left-handed pitching in 2022, but a dreadful .593 OPS in 394 PA against righties.

As much as Pollock still looks capable of crushing southpaws, these drastic splits give pause to any club considering Pollock for an everyday job.  The Twins’ plethora of left-handed outfielders would make a platoon or timeshare pretty easy, though it remains to be seen if Pollock would be open to a reduced role.  Pollock already showed confidence in his ability to bounce back by declining his $13MM player option with Chicago and taking a $5MM, essentially making an $8MM bet on himself to find a larger deal on the open market.

There hasn’t been a lot of public interest in Pollock to date, while the Marlins, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks have all been linked to Turner, and at least one team (Miami) has made the infielder a proper offer.  Turner and Pollock were teammates with the Dodgers from 2019-21, and while the 38-year-old Turner is the older of the two, he also figures to be more expensive given the larger interest and a better platform year.

Turner hit .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 PA with Los Angeles in 2022, essentially having a split season in terms of production.  Turner had a measly .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then snapped back into form and had a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.  Considering the unique circumstances (i.e. the lockout, and the shortened Spring Training) of the lead-up to the 2022 campaign, Turner’s slow start could be written off as a product of an unusual offseason.

With the universal DH coming to the National League last year, Turner basically split time between DH and third base.  The Twins could deploy this same strategy, having Turner and Jose Miranda in a timeshare at third base (though both players at right-handed hitters) and using Turner at DH whenever Miranda is at the hot corner.  Apart from one game at second base and one mop-up inning as a pitcher, Turner has played only third base since the start of the 2017 season, but he could theoretically factor into the first base mix as well.

Christian Vazquez’s three-year, $30MM contract represents Minnesota’s biggest expenditure of the winter, and even with Gallo added, the Twins’ payroll still projects under the $118MM threshold.  That is well under the $134.4MM the Twins spend on their Opening Day roster last year, and given how Minnesota made a concerted effort to try and re-sign Carlos Correa to a pricey new contract, the Twins clearly have money to spend or re-allocate now that Correa has joined the Giants.

Latest On Dansby Swanson’s Market

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Dansby Swanson is the best remaining free agent, the only of the top four shortstops who has yet to agree to terms. Teams like the Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and incumbent Braves have all been tied to him, although there’s no indication he’s especially close to a deal.

Minnesota, Boston and the Dodgers each lost a star shortstop of their own to free agency, making them all natural fits to look to Swanson as a possible replacement. However, various reports have cast some doubt on each of those possible landing spots. Both Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have written recently that Los Angeles is presently more on the periphery of the Swanson market. Rosenthal and Heyman each suggest L.A. might only jump into the mix if Swanson’s asking price dips into a range they find especially palatable.

That at least partially stems from luxury tax considerations, with various reports suggesting the Dodgers are eyeing the possibility of dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. The Dodgers have paid the tax in each of the last two seasons, setting them up for heightened penalties as repeat payors. A team can reset their payor status by dipping below the threshold for one year, and doing so next season may free L.A. up to aggressively target free agency during the 2023-24 offseason. Los Angeles is presently projected around $32MM shy of the tax marker by Roster Resource, leaving room to add Swanson without going past the threshold. However, there’s apparently some organizational concern they could find themselves on the hook for money owed to Trevor Bauer if the pitcher’s two-year suspension is overturned or reduced on appeal, which is expected to be heard in the next month.

Heyman wrote yesterday the Red Sox are “seriously considering” Swanson after watching Xander Bogaerts head to San Diego. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently told the media the club was looking to add players at up-the-middle positions, but the presence of Trevor Story means they’re not locked into a shortstop pursuit. Boston reportedly offered Bogaerts, whom they’d called their top offseason priority, $162MM over six years before he landed in San Diego. Pivoting with a similar or higher proposal to Swanson would raise some eyebrows, and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic wrote yesterday it seems unlikely Boston would make such an investment.

The Twins had been in contact with Swanson even before Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Giants, putting themselves into the mix for a fallback option. Both Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link) and Dan Hayes of the Athletic (on Twitter) suggest the Twins remain involved, but both reporters characterize it as more of a longshot for Swanson to actually land in Minneapolis. The Twins do still have a fair bit of payroll flexibility, even after this afternoon’s $11MM agreement with Joey Gallo.

Regardless, Swanson’s sure to find a significant deal from some team this winter. The next-best remaining free agent shortstop is Elvis Andrus, while the trade market doesn’t have many obvious solutions. Swanson is coming off an All-Star campaign, one in which he connected on 25 home runs with a .277/.329/.447 line while appearing in all 162 games for the Braves. He also secured his first career Gold Glove after rating as 15 runs above average defensively, per Statcast. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract.

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