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MLB Sets 2017-18 Qualifying Offer At $17.4MM

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Major League Baseball has set the qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason at $17.4MM, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link).

With the news, teams can now make full assessments of whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. Offers are due five days after the World Series wraps up; players will then have ten days to weigh them.

Prior indications were that the figure would land somewhat higher, with expectations sitting in the range of $18.1MM. Last year, the QO sat at $17.2MM, so this represents only a marginal tick upward. Though the variations here are relatively small relative to the total value, every bit of money adds up for teams that are looking to map out a payroll plan.

When the QO system went into effect in the fall of 2012, the offer price — which is set by averaging the top 125 salaries leaguewide — was set at $13.3MM. For the first five years of its operation, the draft compensation system was relatively simple, but also seemingly operated to create quite a burden for mid-tier free agents. Tim gave an early an excellent account of the impact early in 2013; one year later, I took a lengthy look at the way the offer functioned in practice and explored some concepts for improving it. To that point, no player had accepted a qualifying offer. The market evolved from that point onward, as several players ultimately took the big, one-year salaries. But it remained clear that only a few players each year were disproportionately burdened by the system, which also did not seem to be benefiting smaller-market organizations.

With a new collective bargaining agreement came a new and more complicated rules regime that sought to temper some of those problems. Rather than the one-size-fits-all approach that once governed, several variables are now utilized to determine the draft compensation that results when a player declines a QO and then signs with another organization. You’ll want to review this thorough breakdown of the new system, via MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, for a full understanding of the procedures that apply for the coming offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The 2016 Winter Meetings marked the beginning of a new White Sox strategy: a total rebuild.  Gone are Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Dan Jennings, Melky Cabrera, and Miguel Gonzalez.  The 2017 team played to their low expectations, but the club’s record was an afterthought as the White Sox continued acquiring top-shelf young talent throughout the season.  In terms of trades, most of the heavy lifting has been done as we head into the offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • James Shields, SP: White Sox responsible for $10MM in 2018 salary as well as $2MM buyout on 2019 option.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $5.2MM through 2018.  Includes club options for 2019-21.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $24.15MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023-24.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Information]

GM Rick Hahn has executed his plan perfectly so far.  The White Sox were able to give fans a glimpse of the future as Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez made their team debuts this summer.  They’ve got six of the game’s top 100 prospects waiting in the wings with Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, Dylan Cease, and Alec Hansen.  Zack Collins, Dane Dunning, and Carson Fulmer follow on their top prospect list.  And don’t forget about Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodon, who have already experienced big league success even if they struggled in 2017.  As the rebuild enters its second offseason, what’s left to do on the transaction side?

The White Sox still have two marketable veterans: Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia.  Both were bright spots on a 2017 club that lost 95 games.  Abreu, 31 in January, experienced a power resurgence on his way to becoming one of the five best-hitting first basemen in the game this year.  The White Sox control him through 2019 as an arbitration eligible player, and MLBTR projects a salary close to $18MM just for 2018.  His price tag could be in the $40MM range for 2018-19.

Jose Abreu | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Abreu’s rising salary is not a problem for the Sox, who have next to nothing on the books.  If the White Sox entertain trades for Abreu, his salary could take smaller payroll teams out of the mix.  Still, he arguably could be the best hitter on the market aside from J.D. Martinez and will require a much smaller financial commitment than Martinez or fellow first baseman Eric Hosmer.  Abreu also brings reliability that is unmatched by 2017 breakouts like Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso.

Hahn will likely treat Abreu as he did Jose Quintana last winter: set a price, listen to offers, and hold him if those offers fall short.  Penciling Abreu into the third spot in the order for the 2018 White Sox would likely please fans.  An extension would be pushing too far, however, as Abreu is unlikely to provide surplus value in his age-33 season and beyond.

Right fielder Avisail Garcia is also controlled for two more seasons through arbitration.  He presents a different calculus following a surprising season in which he hit .330/.380/.506.  Garcia, 27 in June, should be in the prime of his career.  He’s also less proven than Abreu, having shown a subpar bat until 2017.

Avisail Garcia | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

We project Garcia to earn $6.7MM in 2018, so he could be a bargain even though no one expects him to manage a .392 batting average on balls in play again.  South Side Sox notes that Garcia’s expected weighted on-base average (found using Statcast data) suggests his new level is that of a well above-average player.  Extending Garcia before he proves himself further could result in a discount for the White Sox, if the player is willing.  If the numbers don’t add up for Hahn, Garcia becomes a trade candidate.

Trade chips aside, the White Sox must field a Major League team in 2018.  While the 2017 season was surprisingly fun in spite of the team’s record, fans will expect progress in the standings with a more respectable product on the field as the rebuild enters its second phase.

The bullpen is an obvious area for Hahn to address this winter.  Due to the trades of Robertson, Kahnle, Swarzak, Jennings, and Tyler Clippard, as well as injuries to Nate Jones and Zach Putnam, manager Rick Renteria had to survive with perhaps MLB’s least recognizable bullpen.  27-year-old Juan Minaya, a waiver claim from last year, was an up-and-down guy for the Sox until late June, and by mid-August he became the team’s closer.  30-year-old Gregory Infante signed a minor league deal in January and worked his way into high-leverage innings by season’s end.  Most likely, Chicago’s bullpen will continue to present great opportunities to the game’s reclamation projects, especially after helping Swarzak and Kahnle turn around their careers.  There’s room for mid-range additions as well, given the team’s sparse payroll commitments.  While Hahn won’t be looking at Wade Davis or Greg Holland, the White Sox may add a few veterans in the $3-6MM per year range in addition to a likely significant number of minor league pacts.

The rotation is more settled.  Veteran James Shields will retain a spot in the last year of his contract.  Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito are in.  Carlos Rodon will claim a spot, but his timetable is wide open currently as he recovers from shoulder surgery.  As MLB.com’s Scott Merkin explained in September, Carson Fulmer is a contender for a spot and Michael Kopech will likely make his way up midseason.  There seems to be room for at least one veteran addition, perhaps with last year’s $6MM deal with Derek Holland serving as a model.  Free agent reclamation projects include Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley, Hector Santiago, and Chris Tillman.

The White Sox may also consider minor additions on the position player side.  After going with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith behind the dish this year, the Sox could make a low-key veteran catcher addition from a list of many options.  Leury Garcia showed well as the starting center fielder when he wasn’t battling injuries.  Adam Engel and Charlie Tilson will be in the center field mix as well.  Nicky Delmonico had a strong 166-plate appearance debut and should see time at left field and designated hitter.  Yolmer Sanchez could be penciled in at third base with Moncada getting the nod at second and Anderson at shortstop.  While they aren’t expected to contend for big names, the White Sox would benefit from adding both outfield and infield depth for 2018.

As Steve Adams outlined last month, the White Sox should consider taking advantage of their low payroll commitment to further boost their prospect stash.  After arbitration raises, the team projects to have around $45MM committed to the 2018 payroll.  Steve named bad contract examples such as Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Yasmany Tomas, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Wei-Yin Chen.  The White Sox could agree to take on a contract like that in order to pry young players away from the club that is currently saddled with said contract. In the process, the Sox would also be supplementing their own 2018 team.

With most of the building blocks of the future already in the organization, the next phase of the White Sox rebuild will hinge on player development.  The 2017-18 offseason figures to be much less eventful than the previous one for White Sox fans.  Rick Hahn’s work is far from over, but the next White Sox playoff team is starting to come into view.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Aaron Nola

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The Phillies have scrupulously maintained their future balance sheets, preferring not to make any commitments that might tie their hands in future seasons. But the organization has already made one exception, inking Odubel Herrera last winter, and could explore yet more extensions with core players this winter.

Aaron Nola | Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

One could probably make a case for a very early strike with one of the team’s less-experienced would-be stars — chief among them, Rhys Hoskins. But by far the likeliest candidate for a long-term deal is righty Aaron Nola, who was selected with the seventh overall pick of the 2014 draft and has since established himself as one of the game’s better young starters.

Nola, 24, reached the majors after just 30 minor-league appearances, showing quite well in his 13-start debut at just 22 years of age. Last year, though, he faded after a strong opening and ended the season facing injury questions. Nola ultimately avoided surgery for some UCL and flexor tendon issues and was able to rehabilitate through the problem over the offseason.

It’s easy to forget now, but entering the current season, nobody was quite sure what to expect from Nola. He responded with 168 innings of 3.54 ERA ball. Nola also racked up 9.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 along with a 49.8% ground-ball rate in his 27 starts, showing career-best numbers in average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and swinging-strike rate (10.8%).

Looking at Nola’s overall body of work, it’s hard not to be impressed. While he did struggle to keep runs off the board in 2016, advanced metrics have basically loved him from day one. Through 356 2/3 MLB frames, he carries a 3.38 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, and 3.52 SIERA.

The hugely positive outlook on his future makes Nola a bargain, as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron suggested when ranking him 49th in all of baseball on his top 50 trade value rankings. Because he didn’t reach the Majors quite soon enough back in 2015, Nola will fall shy of Super Two qualification, meaning he’ll play at (or near) the league minimum in 2018 before reaching his three years of arbitration eligibility.

While Nola did take home over $3MM to sign out of LSU, he has another year to wait for significant Major League earnings. That means risk aplenty, which is true of any pitcher but perhaps especially so for Nola, given his prior injury scare. He and the team are aware of the details of the medical situation and thus can adequately account for the risk it entails, but that factor could also push him in the direction of weighing a contract extension.

It’s tempting to speak abstractly about a possible discount for the injury questions. In truth, though, the more interesting question is just what framework might be utilized as a starting point for talks. To this point, no pre-arbitration starter has scored a guarantee of over $40MM. Even Corey Kluber, a 2+ service-class pitcher like Nola, was promised $38.5MM over five years (while giving up two option years) in his 2015 contract. Kluber was more than five years older than Nola is now but also was coming off of a Cy Young Award at the time.

The Kluber deal largely fell in line with prior pre-arb starter contracts, though, and even moved the standard up a bit. Chris Sale ($32.5MM), Derek Holland ($28.5MM), and Trevor Cahill ($30.5MM) are a few of the prior 2+ service hurlers that took five-year deals with similar structures.

Though Nola has staked out a claim as a top-quality young starter, it’s hard to argue that he has shown more to this point than had Sale or Madison Bumgarner (who signed his own five-year, $35MM deal as a 1+ service-class player). Considerations of inflation could be somewhat offset by Nola’s health record, though his representatives would surely argue that his avoidance of surgery and a 2017 season free of arm issues render that a largely moot point.

Provisions could be worked in that would protect the team in the event of an elbow flare-up, such as the addition of cheap option years at the end of the pact. (For example, both Felix Hernandez and John Lackey have previously agreed to clauses that add a league-minimum option to the end of their deal in the event of Tommy John surgery) Or, perhaps the wealthy Phils would be willing mostly to look past Nola’s elbow questions in the hunt for upside, reasoning that the overall risk is minimal and that the open-market price for pitching has steadily risen in recent years and figures to do so between now and the point at which Nola himself would reach the open market.

The previously mentioned five-year structure would run through Nola’s age-29 season and buy out one free-agent year. That’s still a lucrative age at which to reach the open market, though the Phils may seek to add a club option or two that’d further delay his path to the open market. Reaching free agency in advance of his age-31 season would leave Nola with plenty of earning capacity, though tacking on a second club option (and thus delaying his free agency by three full years) could be a tough sell. Generally speaking, Nola and his reps at Paragon Sports would be weighing whether an immediate guarantee is worth forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency before his age-29 season — an age at which he’d almost certainly be one of the youngest starters on the market.

With a number of factors for both sides to weigh, it’ll be an interesting situation to watch if the Phillies and Nola do indeed sit down this winter. Nola could well become the latest Phillies player to secure a long-term commitment as part of the organization’s hopeful contending core, but his proximity to arbitration should reduce his urgency to take a deal to some extent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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This is the second entry in 2017-18 version of our annual Offseason Outlook series at MLBTR, joining the previously written Orioles Offseason Outlook. Entries on the other 28 teams will be released regularly over the next month.

With the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft locked up following an aggressive summer fire sale, the Tigers are set for an offseason unlike any Detroit has seen in the past decade — one of a rebuilding team looking toward the future rather than looking toward next season’s playoff race.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

  • None

[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]

One calendar year ago, the question facing the Tigers was whether they’d embark on a rebuild or whether they’d take aim at contending with an aging core one more time. The trade of Cameron Maybin on the first day of the 2016-17 offseason pointed toward the former of those two options, but it wasn’t until this past July that the Tigers emphatically made their organizational overhaul a reality. From July 18 through Aug. 31, Detroit traded the likes of J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila, Justin Upton and franchise icon Justin Verlander for young players and salary relief.

Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are the remaining core pieces of the Tigers’ most recent AL Central title in 2014, but that’s not likely to be the case for long. While Cabrera’s albatross contract, significant dip in productivity and pair of herniated disks in his back make him an immovable trade asset, Kinsler will enter the offseason as perhaps the likeliest player in all of baseball to be traded. While he had a down year at the plate, the 35-year-old is affordable in 2018, plays premium defense at second base and brings a wealth of postseason experience to hopeful contenders.

Ian Kinsler | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Angels and Brewers both reportedly had interest in him prior to the non-waiver deadline, and neither is especially settled at second base at present. Other speculative fits include the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets. Regardless of the destination, Kinsler seems likely to move for some younger pieces. While the Tigers would love to trade Jordan Zimmermann and Victor Martinez to clear payroll and make room for younger options, both of those contracts seem entirely immovable. Martinez may even simply be a release candidate, per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com.

Aside from Kinsler, the Tigers still possess a few intriguing trade options. Nicholas Castellanos showed interesting power and some upside in his batted-ball profile, but his defense was a disaster both at third base and especially in right field. With a fairly sizable bump in his salary projected, some clubs may not see that much surplus value; certainly a contending team would have reservations about plugging him into third base or right field, though perhaps a team like the Braves that is more on the fringes and still hunting for upside would roll the dice.

Other candidates to be moved include Jose Iglesias and breakout reliever Shane Greene. Iglesias only has a year to go on his deal and hasn’t hit much in the past two seasons, but he’s an affordable superlative defender at a premium position. Contenders in need of infield defense should at least kick the tires. There’s no rush to move Greene, who finished the year as the closer in Detroit, but controllable relief arms are always of interest on the trade market. Greene posted a 2.66 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in 67 2/3 innings this season, but teams may be wary of his 4.52 BB/9 rate and an 8.6 percent swinging-strike rate that doesn’t gel with his more impressive K/9 mark. He’s a lock to be tendered and could be shopped next summer if he’s not moved in the offseason.

One name that fans of other teams will dream on is 2016 Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer, whose name was frequently speculated upon prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. However, a trade of Fulmer strikes me as decidedly unlikely for a number of reasons, with last month’s elbow surgery chief among them. Impressive as Fulmer’s first two seasons were, teams are going to be reluctant to give maximum value for a player that hasn’t taken the mound since undergoing surgery to reposition his ulnar nerve.

Beyond that, Fulmer is controllable for five more seasons and won’t even reach arbitration eligibility until next winter. The Tigers shouldn’t feel any urgent rush to take the best offer currently presented, and three months of a healthy Fulmer would significantly up his trade stock for next summer’s trading season. Make no mistake about it, Fulmer’s name will pop up on the rumor circuit this winter, but it seems difficult to envision the Tigers and another club reaching the nexus of “fair value” in Detroit’s eyes and a slightly discounted return from a team that will feel it is taking on at least some degree of injury risk.

Turning to what the Tigers could look to actually acquire this offseason, the team is set at a variety of positions. Jeimer Candelario, who came to the Tigers in the return for Wilson and Avila, will get every opportunity to cement himself as a slugging third baseman and one of the future faces of the franchise in 2018. Cabrera will return at first base or designated hitter (depending on what’s done with Martinez), and the club seems likely to go with James McCann and John Hicks again behind the plate rather than invest dollars or prospects in acquiring a new catcher.

Mikie Mahtook performed well enough in center field to earn another look next year, and the team could play Castellanos in the outfield if he’s retained. Still, the Tigers ran out a rather uninspiring group of corner options this winter, so they could look at their unsettled corner situation as a means of catching lightning in a bottle as they did with they signed J.D. Martinez in the first place. Certainly, that’s easier said than done, but looking to the trade market for blocked outfielders (the Cardinals, for instance, have a surplus there) or adding a once-well-regarded player with some youth seem like a better avenue than a veteran stopgap in the Seth Smith or Melky Cabrera mold. Alternatively, the corner outfield opening represents a reasonable spot for the Tigers to take aim with the top pick in this December’s Rule 5 Draft.

Overall, the group of position players leaves some clear and obvious holes: at least one corner outfielder will need to be brought into the mix, and the Tigers look like a team that will eventually acquire some affordable up-the-middle stopgaps in the infield. Dixon Machado could be called upon to man shortstop in the event of an Iglesias trade, but given his lack of track record, at least one infielder (possibly two) that can play shortstop and second base with a bit more offensive upside than Andrew Romine would prove to be useful pursuits. The free-agent market is admittedly somewhat barren, though myriad trade opportunities will present themselves, with Jurickson Profar and Aledmys Diaz among the controllable infield candidates to change hands this winter.

Turning to the pitching staff, Detroit will have Fulmer, Zimmermann, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd all returning in 2018 (barring trades), but finding a veteran to step into the fifth slot in hopes of eating some innings and eventually turning into a summer trade piece seems prudent. The Tigers could play it safe and look for a fairly reliable source of innings with limited upside (e.g. Ricky Nolasco, Miguel Gonzalez), but they’d be better served to pursue a more boom-or-bust option that could bring back more in a trade (e.g. Chris Tillman). They’re also one of several non-contending teams that could promise righty Miles Mikolas a rotation spot as he looks to return from a strong run in Japan — a move that won’t come with excessive financial risk but could produce a useful trade chip. We haven’t seen this team in this position before, though, so it’s tough to predict exactly which avenue(s) the front office will pursue in rounding out the rotation.

The Tigers’ bullpen is an even larger question mark. Greene is currently the closer, and it’s safe to expect Alex Wilson and probably Daniel Stumpf to return. But Bruce Rondon and Blaine Hardy are likely non-tenders. Drew VerHagen is out of options and could be an offseason 40-man casualty. Top prospect Joe Jimenez looked wildly overmatched in his first season of MLB experience, but he’ll get another crack at some point in 2018. That said, the Tigers have room to add multiple free-agent relievers, and while they’ll probably cast a wide net in adding several rebound candidates on minor league deals, it’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one arm on a big league deal.

Detroit won’t, and shouldn’t, pay top dollar for any bullpen upgrades, but their complete lack of certainty among the relief corps should give Avila and his staff the ability to be opportunistic late in the winter. With the Tigers unlikely to spend too heavily elsewhere, they could snatch up a few of the relievers who see their markets fall out from underneath them and take lower-than-expected deals in January and February. As with whoever the Tigers settle on for a fifth starter, those free-agent relief acquisitions could very well become trade commodities down the line. If not, they’re unlikely to be expensive and can be cut loose to give opportunities to younger arms.

A year ago at this time, my outlook on the Tigers’ offseason focused on how they could trim payroll while still keeping enough pieces around to contend in 2017. That approach won’t be necessary this winter, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to hear virtually anyone on the Tigers’ active roster surface in trade talks over the next five-plus months. Moves that we haven’t typically associated with the Tigers in the past, such as selecting one or more players in the Rule 5 Draft, buying low on rebound candidates in free agency and trading for change-of-scenery candidates (as they successfully did with Mahtook last offseason) could all be on the table this time around.

It’s a new era in Detroit as the team gears toward a youth movement with the top picks in both the Rule 5 Draft and next June’s amateur draft. The Tigers have already cut the sum of their guaranteed contracts owed in 2018 from $138.1MM this time last year to $97MM at present (not including projected arbitration salaries). That number figures to dip further if and when Kinsler is traded, but that should be just one of many moves in an active offseason for Avila and his staff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Lucroy

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Generally, of course, Jonathan Lucroy’s stock is down on the heels of a disappointing season. He entered the year with a chance at earning Russell Martin-type money — $82MM over five years — but now won’t scrape that stratosphere.

That said, there’s still a lot of value in the veteran. Just how much? Let’s take a look.

Sep 22, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy (21) at bat during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

First and foremost, it’s important to note just how good Lucroy was from 2012 through 2016. After all, there’s a reason that folks thought he could meet or exceed that Martin contract. In 641 games over that span, Lucroy posted an excellent .291/.353/.465 batting line that rated about twenty percent above the league-average output. For a catcher that also was regarded among the best at defending his position, those are monster numbers.

That five-year run serves as a notable backdrop for what happened in 2017. Lucroy struggled badly out of the gates, slashing just .242/.297/.338 in his 306 plate appearances with the Rangers. He hit just four home runs in that stretch after drilling 24 in the prior season in 544 trips to the plate. Just as suddenly, though, Lucroy bounced back upon his summer trade to the Rockies. In his 175 turns, the veteran posted a .310/.429/.437 mark while drawing 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts. The power did not fully return — he hit only two more long balls — but clearly Lucroy was again an above-average offensive performer, even after accounting for the altitude boost.

So, how does one frame the recent years? Was the first half of 2017 just a detour? Or should we figure in Lucroy’s tepid 2015 season and isolate his excellent 2016 season as the outlier? What about that waning power?

In all likelihood, clubs will land somewhere in the middle on all of this. It’s certainly quite promising that Lucroy has restored his plate discipline nearly to the levels it stood in 2014, when he walked (10.1%) nearly as often as he struck out (10.8%) over 655 plate appearances. But his isolated slugging mark has now sat below the league average in two of the past three seasons. Plus, Lucroy managed only an anemic 22.3% hard-hit rate in 2017 while his groundball rate soared to over fifty percent for the first time in his career.

Of course, there’s still the matter of Lucroy’s work in the field to be accounted for. There was a time when his mastery of the dark arts behind the dish significantly bolstered the 31-year-old’s value. When he posted 6.2 fWAR in 2014, that was arguably an understatement, as it failed to account for Lucroy’s otherworldly framing skills and management of the pitching staff over a 153-game grind.

Now, the picture seems quite a bit different. Framing metrics panned Lucroy’s work over the first half of 2017. Though he ticked upward in Colorado, it’s still a far sight from the days when Lucroy was the poster child for the newly illuminated art of strike gathering. Still, he drew positive grades as recently as 2016, and it would be rather surprising for such a remarkable degradation in skill to occur so suddenly, so perhaps there’s a bounceback (or another explanation) here. And it’s worth noting that Lucroy has drawn plaudits for his presence on the defensive side from Rockies skipper Bud Black.

All told, the signals leave quite a lot of room for interpretation. No doubt many organizations will feel differently than others about what to expect from Lucroy. All will value the fact that he has been one of only four catchers to top three thousand plate appearances since the start of 2012 (and one of only three to post more than twenty WAR in that span). He seems clearly worthy of being awarded a regular job, but guessing at an earning range is more difficult. And that depends, too, on market factors.

Obviously there’s reason to expect that the Rockies could be interested in a return. The team has indicated satisfaction with Lucroy’s work and could use him just as much next year as this, though there are also internal options to be considered. Lucroy himself has made clear he’d welcome a chance to return. Beyond that, the possibilities are a bit more difficult to suss out. Few contenders have really clear needs behind the plate, though contending organizations such as the Diamondbacks, Angels, and perhaps Nationals could consider a move.

Other possible suitors could yet emerge. But Lucroy will face some competition. It helps that Kurt Suzuki has decided to remain with the Braves. But Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option and Alex Avila will return to the open market. Chris Iannetta had a strong year, and he’s one of several solid veterans that may represent more cost-conscious options for organizations that prefer a timeshare at the position rather than paying more to land a heavily-used regular.

Recent comps are of limited utility, too. Big dollars have gone to Martin and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM), but as noted at the outset that seems highly unlikely here. Looking at other significant, multi-year deals, though, there’s a big gulf between those larger contracts and the three-year pacts signed by Jason Castro ($24.5MM) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($21MM). Lucroy has a strong argument to out-earn that pair, so it seems reasonable to anticipate at least a three-year arrangement with some possibility for a fourth.

Perhaps Francisco Cervelli’s three-year, $31MM extension represents a more noteworthy marker in this case. It’s telling, too, that Matt Wieters was guaranteed $21MM over two years despite a clearly inferior record to that of Lucroy, perhaps further suggesting that Lucroy ought to command an eight-figure annual commitment. Ultimately, it’s easy to imagine pursuit by two or more determined organizations pushing up the guarantee past the Cervelli level. Demand is less than crystal clear, so there’s some downside risk here as well, though it helps that Lucroy will not be subject to a qualifying offer since he was dealt in the middle of the season. Regardless of how it all shakes out, two things are clear after Lucroy’s 2017 campaign: he won’t be paid like the top-flight player he was for the prior five seasons, but he’ll still earn a hefty commitment when he hits the open market for the first time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the seventh year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2018. The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

The Super Two cutoff is not yet known, so we’re using a conservative number of 2.120.  The players closer to this number may not ultimately be arbitration eligible. We also don’t have official service time information, so our estimates may have inaccuracies.

Angels (12)

  • Eric Young Jr. (5.163) – $1.1MM
  • Martin Maldonado (5.156) – $2.8MM
  • Garrett Richards (5.148) – $7.0MM
  • Blake Wood (5.131) – $2.2MM
  • Shane Robinson (5.002) – $600K
  • Matt Shoemaker (3.166) – $4.4MM
  • Tyler Skaggs (3.135) – $1.9MM
  • Blake Parker (3.036) – $1.7MM
  • C.J. Cron (3.010) – $2.8MM
  • Cam Bedrosian (2.153) – $1.2MM
  • Andrew Heaney (2.150) – $800K
  • J.C. Ramirez (2.139) – $2.6MM

Astros (10)

  • Marwin Gonzalez (5.133) – $7.7MM (Astros have $5.125MM club option).
  • Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
  • Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
  • Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
  • Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
  • George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
  • Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
  • Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
  • Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
  • Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM

Athletics (8)

  • Chris Hatcher (4.146) – $2.2MM
  • Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
  • Liam Hendriks (4.038) – $1.9MM
  • Marcus Semien (3.118) – $3.2MM
  • Josh Phegley (3.114) – $1.1MM
  • Blake Treinen (3.065) – $2.3MM
  • Jake Smolinski (3.016) – $700K
  • Kendall Graveman (3.014) – $2.6MM

Blue Jays (10)

  • Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
  • Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (4.090) – $6.0MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
  • Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
  • Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
  • Ryan Goins (3.106) – $1.8MM
  • Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
  • Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
  • Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM

Braves (8)

  • Matt Adams (5.033) – $4.6MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
  • Ian Krol (3.149) – $1.3MM
  • Danny Santana (3.111) – $1.1MM
  • Sam Freeman (3.067) – $1.2MM
  • Jace Peterson (3.024) – $1.1MM
  • Danny Winkler (3.000) – $800K
  • Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM

Brewers (9)

  • Jared Hughes (5.162) – $2.2MM
  • Carlos Torres (5.114) – $3.3MM
  • Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
  • Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
  • Chase Anderson (3.146) – $5.4MM
  • Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
  • Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
  • Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
  • Corey Knebel (2.151) – $$4.1MM

Cardinals (4)

  • Trevor Rosenthal (5.058) – $7.9MM
  • Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
  • Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
  • Randal Grichuk (3.034) – $2.8MM

Cubs (8)

  • Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
  • Hector Rondon (5.000) – $6.2MM
  • Justin Grimm (4.162) – $2.4MM
  • Leonys Martin (4.161) – $4.9MM
  • Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
  • Tommy La Stella (3.072) – $1.0MM
  • Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
  • Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM

Diamondbacks (14)

  • Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
  • Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
  • A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
  • Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
  • J.J. Hoover (4.153) – $1.6MM
  • Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
  • Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
  • T.J. McFarland (3.165) – $1.0MM
  • Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
  • David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
  • Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
  • Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
  • Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
  • Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM

Dodgers (9)

  • Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
  • Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
  • Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
  • Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
  • Josh Fields (3.162) – $2.2MM
  • Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
  • Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
  • Joc Pederson (3.022) – $2.0MM
  • Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K

Giants (6)

  • Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
  • Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
  • Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
  • Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
  • Tim Federowicz (3.022) – $1.3MM
  • Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM

Indians (7)

  • Lonnie Chisenhall (5.158) – $5.8MM
  • Zach McAllister (5.077) – $2.4MM
  • Cody Allen (5.076) – $10.8MM
  • Dan Otero (4.124) – $1.4MM
  • Danny Salazar (3.162) – $5.2MM
  • Trevor Bauer (3.158) – $7.7MM
  • Abraham Almonte (3.052) – $1.1MM

Mariners (7)

  • David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
  • Drew Smyly (5.154) – $6.85MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
  • Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
  • Mike Zunino (3.161) – $3.2MM
  • James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
  • Shae Simmons (3.111) – $700K

Marlins (6)

  • Marcell Ozuna (4.124) – $10.9MM
  • Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
  • Dan Straily (3.126) – $4.6MM
  • Justin Bour (3.064) – $3.5MM
  • Miguel Rojas (3.043) – $1.1MM
  • J.T. Realmuto (3.038) – $4.2MM

Mets (11)

  • Nori Aoki (5.148) – $6.3MM
  • Tommy Milone (5.113) – $2.2MM
  • Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
  • A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
  • Jeurys Familia (5.024) – $7.4MM
  • Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
  • Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
  • Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
  • Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
  • Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
  • Hansel Robles (2.127) – $1.0MM

Nationals (3)

  • Anthony Rendon (4.130) – $11.5MM
  • Tanner Roark (4.055) – $7.5MM
  • Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM

Orioles (7)

  • Zach Britton (5.158) – $12.2MM
  • Brad Brach (5.063) – $5.2MM
  • Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
  • Jonathan Schoop (4.027) – $9.1MM
  • Kevin Gausman (3.151) – $6.8MM
  • Caleb Joseph (3.145) – $1.4MM
  • Tim Beckham (3.134) – $3.1MM

Padres (9)

  • Hector Sanchez (5.018) – $1.1MM
  • Brad Hand (4.092) – $3.8MM
  • Carter Capps (4.077) – $1.3MM
  • Christian Friedrich (4.046) – $1.79MM
  • Jarred Cosart (3.113) – $1.3MM
  • Robbie Erlin (3.078) – $700K
  • Kirby Yates (3.022) – $1.1MM
  • Cory Spangenberg (3.017) – $2.0MM
  • Matt Szczur (2.134) – $800K

Phillies (5)

  • Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
  • Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
  • Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
  • Luis Garcia (3.007) – $1.4MM
  • Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM

Pirates (4)

  • Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
  • George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
  • Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
  • Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM

Rangers (7)

  • Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
  • Martin Perez (5.038) – $7.8MM (Rangers have $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout)
  • A.J. Griffin (5.034) – $3.0MM
  • Jurickson Profar (3.161) – $1.1MM
  • Keone Kela (2.168) – $1.2MM
  • Nick Martinez (2.149) – $2.0MM
  • Ryan Rua (2.126) – $900K

Rays (13)

  • Shawn Tolleson (5.109) – $1.0MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
  • Dan Jennings (4.171) – $2.5MM
  • Brad Boxberger (4.109) – $1.9MM
  • Corey Dickerson (4.101) – $6.4MM
  • Brad Miller (4.094) – $4.4MM
  • Xavier Cedeno (4.060) – $1.4MM
  • Jake Odorizzi (4.042) – $6.5MM
  • Jesus Sucre (3.137) – $1.3MM
  • Chase Whitley (3.123) – $1.0MM
  • Alex Colome (3.118) – $5.5MM
  • Steven Souza (3.072) – $3.6MM
  • Matt Duffy (3.059) – $900K

Red Sox (15)

  • Robbie Ross (5.099) – $2.0MM
  • Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM
  • Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM
  • Josh Rutledge (4.090) – $700K
  • Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM
  • Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM
  • Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM
  • Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM
  • Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM
  • Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM
  • Brandon Workman (3.036) – $900K
  • Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM
  • Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM

Reds (6)

  • Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
  • Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
  • Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
  • Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
  • Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM
  • Raisel Iglesias (2.154) – $2.8MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration.  Otherwise, contract calls for $4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, and $5MM in 2020.

Rockies (5)

  • DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
  • Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
  • Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
  • Zach Rosscup (3.021) – $600K

Royals (5)

  • Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
  • Brandon Maurer (4.089) – $3.8MM
  • Mike Morin (3.089) – $700K
  • Nate Karns (3.033) – $1.4MM
  • Jorge Soler (2.140) – $1.1MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration.  Otherwise, contract calls for $4MM each season from 2018-20.

Tigers (10)

  • Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM
  • Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
  • Alex Presley (4.056) – $1.1MM
  • Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
  • Nick Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
  • Bruce Rondon (3.097) – $1.2MM
  • Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
  • James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
  • Bryan Holaday (3.025) – $700K
  • Blaine Hardy (2.132) – $800K

Twins (8)

  • Chris Gimenez (5.163) – $1.0MM
  • Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
  • Kyle Gibson (4.051) – $5.3MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
  • Ryan Pressly (3.118) – $1.6MM
  • Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
  • Trevor May (3.051) – $600K
  • Eddie Rosario (2.120) – $3.5MM

White Sox (9)

  • Al Alburquerque (5.030) – $1.1MM
  • Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
  • Zach Putnam (4.135) – $1.4MM
  • Jake Petricka (4.044) – $1.1MM
  • Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
  • Danny Farquhar (3.136) – $1.5MM
  • Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
  • Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
  • Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM

Yankees (9)

  • Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
  • Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
  • Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
  • Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
  • Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
  • Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
  • Erik Kratz (4.026) – $600K
  • Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve (2.155) – $900K

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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This is the first entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason Outlook series.  Stay tuned in the coming weeks for entries on every team in baseball.

With several key figures entering their final year under contract, 2018 could mark the end of this era of Orioles baseball.  In order to go out in a blaze of glory, the O’s will need to address their rotation first and foremost, though other holes exist around the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview]

While the rotation has gotten much of the blame for the Orioles’ disappointing 75-87 record, it was far from the team’s only problem.  The lineup hit a lot of home runs, but no club walked less or stole fewer bases than the Orioles.  They also played below-average defense: Baltimore posted minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and only the A’s had a lower UZR/150 than the Orioles’ minus-4.7 number.  Even the O’s vaunted bullpen, such a strength in recent years, delivered just middle-of-the-pack results in most categories. Zach Britton’s injury problems were the culprit here, as Britton not only missed time but didn’t dominate nearly to the extent he did from 2014-16.

It all added up to a last-place finish in the AL East and a looming sense that it could be now-or-never for the Orioles in 2018.  This could be the final season in Baltimore for Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Brad Brach and Britton. It’s worth noting, too, that both executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are entering the last years of their contracts.  By this time next October, the Orioles franchise could be moving in a completely new direction.

Until then, however, the O’s are intent on returning to contention next year.  One plus for Duquette is that he’ll have extra money to work with thanks to a number of big contracts coming off the books.  Between guaranteed deals ($66.95MM) and projected arbitration figures ($55.1MM), the O’s have roughly $122MM committed to 11 players in 2018, and they still have six more expected contributors (Dylan Bundy, Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart) on pre-arb deals.  That works out to 17 players for approximately $125MM, so if the Orioles look to match their $164.3MM payroll from Opening Day 2017, Duquette has around $39MM in spending capacity.

Let’s start with the rotation, as the Orioles are looking to add two new starters to slot alongside Bundy and Kevin Gausman.  Youngsters Castro and Gabriel Ynoa have been cited as rotation candidates, so let’s pencil in one of that duo (or maybe Alec Asher, Chris Lee, or Tanner Scott) for one of the three open spots.  You could also see a veteran in the mix as a low-cost depth signing, potentially even a familiar face.  While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Baltimore move on entirely from the veteran quartet of Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley and Jeremy Hellickson (combined fWAR in 2017: -0.3), I could see the O’s bringing back Tillman as a nod to his long-time status as a reliable innings-eater prior to his disastrous 2017 season.

Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM contract was the largest deal the O’s have ever handed out to a pitcher, and since Jimenez failed to produce in three of those four years in Baltimore, it’s fair to wonder if owner Peter Angelos will ever again be convinced to make such an investment in a free agent arm.  Given Duquette’s recent comparison of this winter’s pitching search to the 2011-12 offseason (when the club signed Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez), one would suspect that the O’s will indeed eschew big spending on pitching and rather seek out more modestly-priced options.

Duquette mentioned that left-handed starters were a priority, so names like Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, C.C. Sabathia or Miley stand out as potential targets.  Other mid-tier pitchers like Tyler Chatwood, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, or old friend Gonzalez are also available.  A Jimenez-sized commitment wouldn’t be necessary to sign any of these arms.  That said, several have significant injury histories, which will surely be of concern to a franchise that puts particular emphasis on pitcher health. Baltimore could also look to the major foreign professional leagues for a veteran, as it has quite a few times in the recent past (see, e.g., Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada, Suk-min Yoon, Hyun Soo Kim, and Logan Ondrusek).  Japanese superstar Shohei Otani is the primary potential target, though he’d fit quite well on just about every team in baseball and we haven’t heard of the O’s being connected to him in particular. More likely, perhaps, the club could look at some of the other players that are under consideration for a move stateside after quality performances abroad, such as former big leaguer Miles Mikolas.

Duquette has frequently waited until later in the offseason to make notable moves during his Orioles tenure, so he could again be patient to see if any of these pitchers’ markets fails to develop, in order to swoop in for a bargain signing in February. It’s still possible, of course, that the organization could be more aggressive than usual — especially if Duquette feels his job is on the line and/or Angelos authorizes a different approach to take advantage of the remaining window of the club’s current core.  The new rules regarding free agents who have rejected qualifying offers could also provide a wrinkle, as teams no longer have to surrender first-round draft picks for such signings.  Losing international bonus money is hardly a deterrent to a team like Baltimore that doesn’t seem to care about the int’l market, so the Orioles could potentially be more willing than usual to spend on free agents.

Adding some big names and showing a long-term desire to contend could also help entice Machado into a long-term extension.  Machado’s future is one of the major subplots of this Orioles offseason, as the star third baseman is on pace to land a $300MM+ contract in the ensuing winter (even in the wake of a somewhat disappointing 2017 season).  As we’ve seen with Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day in recent years, the Orioles have been willing to spend big to re-sign their own talent, though a Machado contract would be in another stratosphere of financial commitment.

The $161MM Davis contract is already looking questionable just two seasons into a seven-year deal, so it remains to be seen if the O’s are even willing to take another dive into the spending deep end.  Jones is also the only one of the aforementioned re-signed quartet that was extended prior to actually reaching free agency, and the wait-and-see tactic probably won’t work with Machado given the large amount of interest he is expected to generate from some of the game’s biggest spenders.  Of course, Machado himself may want to wait and see what happens with the Orioles’ front office and manager situations before locking himself into the team for a decade or more.

One option that isn’t on the table is a trade of either Machado or Britton.  An injury-plagued season and a projected $12.2MM price tag would’ve limited Britton’s trade value anyway.  Brach will again be a popular figure in trade talks, and it could make some sense for the Orioles to move one of their increasingly-expensive bullpen arms to free up a bit more payroll space.  Britton’s health may make Brach too valuable for the O’s to move, though the team has shown a willingness to trade from its bullpen depth in the past (i.e. the Jim Johnson trade in 2013), plus some of the young pitchers that fall out of the rotation mix could be used as relievers.

Baltimore is definitely in need of some left-handed bats to balance out a heavily righty-swinging lineup, though they’re is pretty set at most positions around the diamond.  Right field and catcher are the only true question marks since Seth Smith is unlikely to return and Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option in search of a multi-year deal elsewhere.  The O’s could decide that top prospect Chance Sisco is ready for regular big league action and platoon him with Caleb Joseph behind the plate, though a veteran could also be signed on a one-year stopgap deal if Sisco needs more time in the minors.

Right field could also theoretically be addressed internally, if Jones was to be moved over from center.  Over the last two seasons, Jones ranks within the bottom six of all qualified players in baseball in terms of UZR/150 (-12.1) and DRS (-22).  If Jones is open to a position shift, Baltimore could then sign a left-handed hitting center fielder — Jon Jay or Jarrod Dyson seem like good fits — to a short-term deal until top prospect Austin Hays is ready for regular action.  Hays has already made his MLB debut and could be argued as a candidate for the 2018 lineup already, though since he has yet to play at the Triple-A level, it would be an aggressive move for a would-be contender to rely on such an unseasoned player out of the gates.

If Jones stays in center, then free agents Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson stand out as left-handed bats that could represent options.  Granderson would require a shorter deal than Bruce, who is six years younger and will probably be looking for at least a four-year contract.

Beyond free agents, the Orioles could also fill their holes through trades, though dealing prospects seems unlikely given Baltimore’s less-than-overwhelming farm system and upcoming need for new core talent in the majors.  A more inventive solution could be found in using some of that extra payroll space to take on a larger starting pitching or outfield contract from a rebuilding team.

While the Orioles might like to deal away some of their own larger contractual commitments, that’s likely easier said than done. Davis’s contract is one of the most problematic in all of baseball. Trumbo, meanwhile, is coming off a sub-replacement year and is owed $25MM through 2019, so the O’s could have to eat some money to deal him, or take on another highly-paid player coming off a poor season.  Moving Trumbo would greatly increase roster flexibility, freeing up the DH position and opening a 25-man roster spot for a player with more defensive value, but at this point the Orioles will likely need to hang on to him and hope for the best.

The Orioles are a fascinating team to watch this offseason, as they possess a fair amount of payroll and roster flexibility for a team that is ostensibly in its last ride with this core group of talent.  The emergence of Jonathan Schoop and Mancini as big lineup threats certainly provided a needed boost that offset down years from Davis and Trumbo, and provided hope that the O’s may not be as far away from contention as their last-place finish would indicate.  Still, without some creativity in fixing the pitching staff, Baltimore’s longstanding rotation problems threaten to spoil another season.

Poll: The Future Of Miami’s Outfield

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Those who have visited this website with any regularity over the past few months know that Marlins outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna have frequently come up as potential trade chips. With the MLB offseason set to begin in earnest in a few weeks, questions regarding the trio will continue to abound, especially with a fresh ownership group at the helm. While the Marlins’ new face of baseball operations, part-owner Derek Jeter, essentially did nothing but win during his acclaimed career as the Yankees’ shortstop from 1995-2014, he’s likely in some for some tough times in Miami.

The Marlins’ most recent playoff trip came in 2003 – a season in which they knocked off Jeter & Co. in the World Series – and given their limited talent in the majors, a weak farm system that Baseball America ranks last in the sport and a dire financial situation, the future Hall of Famer’s newest chapter in the game will begin with at least a few lean years. Jeter realizes that, judging by some of the comments he made during the introductory press conference he and principal owner Bruce Sherman held in Miami last week. Although Jeter was reluctant to say that losing will continue for the Marlins in the near term, he did admit that there’s a need to “rebuild the organization,” adding that “there’s going to be at times unpopular decisions that we make on behalf of the organization.”

To a Marlins fan base that loathed the franchise’s prior owner, Jeffrey Loria, in part because of his penny-pinching ways, there probably wouldn’t be a less popular move than trading Stanton – especially after he enjoyed an MVP-caliber 2017 in which he smashed a league-high 59 home runs. But getting out from under at least some of the $295MM he could rake in through 2028 would improve the franchise’s bottom line, so it seems likely Miami will consider offers for the 27-year-old. In theory, Stanton’s full no-trade rights – not to mention an opt-out clause after 2020 – could scuttle a potential deal, but it doesn’t seem he’d stand in the way of a swap if an acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful baseball into the fall.

Marlins outfielders

“I don’t want to rebuild. I’ve lost for seven years,” the right fielder said last month.

Despite their best efforts, Yelich and Ozuna have joined Stanton in doing plenty of losing as Marlins. Considering their affordability, moving either would be far less complicated for Miami than trading Stanton, and it would beef up the team’s farm system.

Yelich, the 25-year-old center fielder, has been worth 4.5 fWAR in three of four seasons since becoming a full-time major leaguer (including in 2017) and is signed to a palatable deal. He’s due a guaranteed $43.5MM through 2021 and will collect either a $15MM salary or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich is all the more appealing when considering the best outfielders who could hit free agency next month (J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Lorenzo Cain) are already over 30 and will rake in far contracts than his.

Ozuna doesn’t come with Yelich-esque team control, but the left fielder still has two arbitration-eligible years remaining after making $3.5MM in 2017, a career season. Across 159 games and 679 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old slashed .312/.376/.548 with 37 homers – much better production than he put up over the previous four years, though he was still a fairly respectable contributor from 2013-16. With an appreciable raise on the way this offseason and a trip to free agency only a couple years off, now may be the time for Miami to wave goodbye to the Scott Boras client.

There are other players the Marlins figure to market in the next few months, but their highest-profile chips are their starting outfielders, a trio that hit a combined .288/.368/.519 this year and topped the NL in fWAR (16.1). Marlins fans may not like it, but with the franchise going in a new direction, it stands to reason Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna have lined up in the same outfield together for the last time. Which player(s) do you think the Fish will part with in the offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Checking In On Last Winter’s Biggest Signings

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The MLB playoffs are underway, which means we’re only a few weeks from seeing a slew of high-profile players hit the open market in search of big-money contracts. Of the players who reached free agency last winter, 12 signed deals of at least three years in length and worth upward of $10MM per annum. While it’s obviously too soon to fully evaluate those pacts, several don’t look all that great through one year. Those who struggled in 2017 could certainly justify the contracts in future seasons, but it’s not exactly encouraging if a player falls well short of expectations at the very beginning of his deal. As you’ll see below, a few of last year’s biggest signings did just that in 2017…

Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Mets – four years, $110MM: Aside from Jacob deGrom, injuries didn’t spare any Mets star in 2017, Cespedes included. For the second straight season, lower body issues sidelined Cespedes for a significant chunk of games. The 31-year-old appeared just 81 times for the disappointing Mets this season, but the good news is that he didn’t drop off much from 2016 when he took the field. With a .292/.352/.540 line, 17 home runs and a .247 ISO in 321 plate appearances, Cespedes provided the type of offensive production the Mets signed up for – on a rate basis, anyway.

Aroldis Chapman, RP, Yankees – five years, $86MM: A few weeks after winning a championship with the Cubs, Chapman returned to the Yankees on the richest deal ever given to a reliever. While the 29-year-old left-hander continues to throw incredibly hard, his first season as the highest-paid reliever of all-time has been rocky on occasion. Chapman went through a slump in August and lost his job as the Yankees’ closer, but he regained form when the calendar turned to September and returned to the ninth inning early in the month. Dating back to Sept. 1, Chapman has gone 13 straight appearances without allowing a run, including a pair of outings in the playoffs. He concluded the regular season with more-than-respectable run prevention and strikeout/walk numbers across 50 1/3 innings (3.22 ER, 12.34 K/9, 3.58 BB/9), but his production in each category was still among the worst of his career. Chapman also notched a personal-low swinging-strike rate of 13.5 percent (down from 18.6 percent in 2016).

Dexter Fowler, CF, Cardinals – five years, $82.5MM: Also a member of last year’s title-winning Cubs, Fowler bolted Chicago for archrival St. Louis’ massive offer. The switch-hitting 31-year-old opened his Cardinals tenure with another quality offensive season (.264/.363/.488 with 18 homers and a career-high .224 ISO in 491 PAs), but he wasn’t able to maintain the widely publicized gains he made as a defender in 2016. Despite only playing in 118 games, Fowler ranked second last among outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-18) and sixth from the bottom in Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-5.9).

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers – five years, $80MM: Finally, a player who has been virtually flawless in Year 1 of his new contract. The Dodgers undoubtedly feel fortunate right now that Jansen spurned other teams’ advances and chose to stay in LA last winter, given that he turned in an otherworldly regular season and could be integral to a World Series run in the coming weeks. Over 68 1/3 innings during the season, the cutter-throwing Jansen placed first among qualified relievers in ERA (1.32) and fWAR (3.5). And with 14.36 K/9 against .92 BB/9, he finished second in both strikeout and walk percentage. The 30-year-old Jansen has continued his excellence in the Dodgers’ first two playoff games, both wins over the Diamondbacks, adding 2 2/3 scoreless frames.

Ian Desmond, OF/1B, Rockies – five years, $70MM: Considering the Rockies gave Desmond big money to play first base, a position he had never lined up at prior to this season, the union between the two looked odd from the start. Ultimately, most of Desmond’s action in 2017 came in the outfield, but his year was utterly disastrous regardless of position. It began inauspiciously when he suffered a fractured left hand during spring training in mid-March and never really got off the ground thereafter. Desmond, 32, battled other injuries and ended up taking just 373 trips to the plate. All told, he hit a subpar .274/.326/.375 with a career-worst ISO (.100). Along the way, he saw his groundball percentage skyrocket to 62.7 percent (up from the low-50s in prior seasons) and his batted-ball authority trend in a disturbing direction. Among 301 hitters who amassed at least 250 at-bats this year, Desmond ranked 290th in expected weighted on-base average (.256, per Statcast – via Baseball Savant).

Edwin Encarnacion, DH/1B, Indians – three years, $65MM: Even though Encarnacion was one of the game’s preeminent sluggers from 2012-16 with the Blue Jays, his market didn’t develop the way many expected it to last offseason. Finally, after going nearly two months without a deal, he stunningly signed with a Cleveland franchise that doesn’t have a big-spending reputation. The Indians were able to use their windfall from last year’s run to the World Series to justify an Encarnacion signing from a financial standpoint, though, and he continued to thrive offensively in his first regular season with the Tribe. The 34-year-old batted .258/.377/.504 with 38 HRs in 669 PAs, sitting out only five games for a club that tallied an AL-best 102 wins. Encarnacion will miss some time after suffering a sprained ankle during Game 2 of the Indians’ ALDS series against the Yankees, but he seems likely to play again this postseason. Cleveland has a 2-0 stranglehold over New York and looks like a sure bet to advance to the next round, which means we probably haven’t seen the last of Encarnacion in 2017.

Justin Turner, 3B, Dodgers – four years, $64MM: Between Jansen and Turner, no team did better on big-money deals last winter than the Dodgers. Despite playing in 21 fewer games than he appeared in last season (130 to 151), Turner registered 5.5 fWAR for the second straight year. His performance during the regular season was worth upward of $44MM, according to FanGraphs, which suggests that Turner is already close to living up to the value of his contract. The once-anonymous Turner batted .322/.415/.530 with 21 long balls in 543 PAs, and he managed to record more unintentional walks (59) than strikeouts (56). The 32-year-old’s brilliance has extended into the Dodgers-Diamondbacks series, too, as he’s 4 of 8 with a homer and five runs batted in thus far.

Mark Melancon, RP, Giants – four years, $62MM: 2017 was a nightmarish season for both the Giants and Melancon, whom they signed to help repair a bullpen that melted down too often last year and helped earn them an early playoff exit. The season for the Giants and Melancon began ominously, however, as he blew a save and picked up a loss on Opening Day against the D-backs. The Giants went on to win a paltry 63 of their next 161 games, meaning the playoffs were never on the table for the longtime contenders, and Melancon didn’t help matters. While Melancon put up normal strikeout/walk numbers (8.7 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9) and a 52.7 percent grounder rate, the former Pirates and Nationals closer blew five of 16 save chances and pitched to a 4.50 ERA (up from a combined 2.39 from 2012-16). Further, after racking up at least 71 innings in each of the previous four seasons, injuries limited him to 30 frames in his first year in San Francisco. Melancon underwent right forearm surgery last month, capping off a season to forget.

Josh Reddick, OF, Astros – four years, $52MM: Reddick endured a terrible late-season stretch as a Dodger in 2016 after they acquired him in a deadline trade with the Athletics, but that didn’t stop the Astros from handing him a sizable contract over the winter. The gamble has paid off so far for Houston, which saw Reddick serve as one of the top complementary pieces in a loaded offense during the regular season. The lefty-swinging 30-year-old batted a career-best .314/.363/.484 line in 540 PAs and was worth 3.5 fWAR, his highest figure since 2012. FanGraphs valued his contributions during the 162-game campaign at nearly $28MM.

Rich Hill, SP, Dodgers – three years, $48MM: Unlike this year’s market, one which could feature Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Shohei Otani and Masahiro Tanaka, free agency wasn’t rife with appealing starting pitchers last winter. As such, the only starter on this dozen-player list is Hill, whose re-signing was yet another shrewd offseason move by the Dodgers. The 37-year-old Hill’s not exactly a workhorse, but he did manage his highest innings total since 2007 – 135 2/3 – during the regular season, and the left-handed journeyman continued to perform like a front-line starter. Hill ranked seventh in the majors in K/9 (11.01) and 20th in ERA (3.32).

Mark Trumbo, DH/OF, Orioles – three years, $37MM: The market wasn’t all that kind to defensively limited mashers a year ago, so Trumbo was among those who went without a contract for a while (until January, to be exact) before inking a deal that fell short of projections. Now, given that the 2017 version of Trumbo looked nothing like the AL-high 47-HR man they saw the year prior, the Orioles would probably like to undo their decision to bring him back. Trumbo, 31, didn’t even hit half as many long balls this season (23), and his ISO dropped from .277 to .163. Unsurprisingly, then, the overall production (.234/.289/.337 in 603 PAs) left a lot to be desired. Going by fWAR (minus-1.2), Trumbo was the second-least valuable position player in baseball this year.

Kendrys Morales, DH, Blue Jays – three years, $33MM: This looks like another regrettable signing, one the Jays made only a few days into free agency last offseason. Although the switch-hitting Morales chipped in 28 homers in 608 PAs, those didn’t provide enough of a lift to an underwhelming .250/.308/.445 line. On the bright side, Morales likely deserved better – his .358 xwOBA easily outpaced his actual wOBA (.320). However, that’s probably not of much comfort to Toronto right now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Before the playoffs began, I polled readers on who would win the National League, the American League and the World Series. The plurality of voters expect the Indians to topple the Dodgers in the Fall Classic. Both teams are on the right track so far, as they each lead their respective division series 2-0.
  • Sticking with the postseason theme, Jason Martinez, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd detailed how all 10 playoff teams constructed their rosters. Along with the aforementioned Dodgers and Indians, check out entries on the Astros, Nationals, Red Sox, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Rockies and Twins.
  • The Twins overcame a less-than-stellar rotation to earn a playoff trip, but their return to the postseason only lasted one game. With Minnesota’s season in the rearview, Kyle Downing asked readers which path the team will take over the winter to bolster its starting pitching. The plurality of voters expect the Twins’ biggest improvements in that area to come from within.
  • Kyle also wrote a piece focusing on Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos as a potential offseason trade candidate. Although the Tigers are in the very early stages of a rebuild, the plurality of voters believe Castellanos will stick with the club at least into next offseason.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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