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Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ offseason featured a large number of small-scale additions — a hallmark of the current front office regime — and the richest contract in club history for the face of the franchise.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Avisail Garcia, OF: Two years, $20MM
  • Josh Lindblom, RHP: Three years, $9.125MM
  • Justin Smoak, 1B: One year, $5MM (includes $1MM buyout of $5.5MM club option)
  • Brett Anderson, LHP: One year, $5MM
  • Eric Sogard, 2B/SS: One year, $4.5MM
  • Brock Holt, INF/OF: One year, $3.25MM (includes $250K buyout of $5MM club option)
  • Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: One year, $2MM (includes $1MM buyout of $4.5MM club option)
  • Alex Claudio, LHP: One year, $1.75MM
  • David Phelps, RHP: One year, $1.5MM (includes $250K buyout of $4.5MM club option)
  • Ryon Healy, 1B/3B: One year, $1MM (split contract; $250K salary in minors)
  • Total spend: $53.125MM

Trades and Claims

Option Decisions

  • Declined $7.5MM club option on 1B/OF Eric Thames (Brewers paid $1MM buyout)
  • 2B/3B Mike Moustakas declined his half of $11MM mutual option (Brewers paid $3MM buyout)
  • C Yasmani Grandal declined his half of $16MM mutual option (Brewers paid $2.25MM buyout)

Extensions

  • Christian Yelich, OF: Seven years, $188.5MM (in addition to preexisting two years, $26.5MM)
  • Freddy Peralta, RHP: Five years, $15.5MM (contains two club options)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The 2019 Brewers reached the postseason for a second straight year, although unlike their division-winning 2018 season, last year’s group limped to the postseason and narrowly secured a Wild Card victory. Christian Yelich’s early-September knee fracture was a major blow to a club that had already lost bullpen powerhouse Corey Knebel to Tommy John surgery and watched as shoulder and elbow troubles again wiped out the season of one of its most talented pitchers (Jimmy Nelson). Milwaukee still appeared poised to advance to the NLDS before a heartbreaking eighth-inning collapse saw the eventual World Series champion Nationals erase a three-run deficit against the likes of uber-reliever Josh Hader.

That bitter pill became even harder to swallow as Brewers fans watched Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas decline their halves of their respective mutual options and sign elsewhere in free agency — Moustakas with a division rival over in Cincinnati. Those departures combined with several other Milwaukee decisions — the trade of Chase Anderson to the Blue Jays, the buyout of Eric Thames’ option and the decision to non-tender Nelson, Travis Shaw and Hernan Perez — to leave many fans with the impression that the team was scaling back and cutting payroll.

In some ways, those concerns proved to be true. The Brewers’ payroll projects to drop by more than $18MM from its 2019 levels. Then again, Milwaukee signed more Major League free agents than any other club this winter, diversifying their risk portfolio by making small-scale investments in a slew of veteran assets. That’s been a common approach under president of baseball operations David Stearns — the Lorenzo Cain signing being a notable exception — and it’s one that has worked well to this point.

Oh… and the Brewers also doled out a franchise-record $188.5MM extension for the aforementioned Yelich. The contract will ostensibly keep Yelich in Milwaukee for the remainder of his career, giving the Brewers an MVP-caliber threat in the heart of their order for the foreseeable future. Yelich isn’t likely to remain that productive at the tail end of the deal, considering it runs through his age-36-campaign, but the contract looks to be a considerable win for the team. At a time when players like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon are all commanding over $30MM annually, Yelich’s $26.9MM annual value looks like a relative bargain. Of course, that comment can’t be made without underscoring that Yelich was three years from reaching the open market — two guaranteed campaigns and a third-year club option — and it also seems he had a clear desire to stay in Milwaukee.

[MLBTR On YouTube: The Yelich Extension]

So, how did the Brewers do in terms of addressing the many holes on their roster entering the winter? Opinions vary. The Brewers parted with relatively little in terms of long-term value in order to acquire three years of control over Narvaez — one of the game’s better-hitting catchers. The draft pick they surrendered is a lottery ticket that could certainly sting, but Narvaez and the .277/.358/.448 slash he’s compiled over the past two seasons will go a long way toward replacing the offense lost with Grandal’s departure. Defensively, Narvaez is a considerable downgrade, but few catchers in the game can match Narvaez’s value with the bat.

The Brewers’ biggest free-agent signing didn’t even come at a position of dire “need.” With Cain, Yelich, Ryan Braun and Ben Gamel on the roster, the outfield wasn’t exactly lacking. But Milwaukee moved Trent Grisham (and solid starter Zach Davies) in an effort to find a long-term answer at shortstop, and Avisail Garcia effectively replaces him on the roster. Garcia will likely see the bulk of playing time in right field, and the Brewers clearly believe he’s closer to the 2017 and 2019 versions of himself than the 2018 iteration that struggled across the board. He is deceptively fast and makes plenty of hard contact, but he’s been an inconsistent all-around performer.

Speaking of that Grisham/Davies trade, the Brewers managed to parlay a big year in the minors from Grisham into the acquisition of a prospect who one year ago was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league infielders. Luis Urias hasn’t hit in the big leagues yet, and the manner in which the Padres continued to acquire veteran options to play ahead of him perhaps suggests that they were never as high on him as prospect rankings seemed to be. Urias is still only 22 and has crushed Triple-A pitching (.305/.403/.511 in 867 plate appearances). Losing Grisham could potentially sting, but the Brewers felt more confident in their ability to capably replace an outfielder via free agency than to find a much-needed middle infielder. On the pitching side of that trade, the Brewers came away with the more controllable arm — but one that has yet to find the success Davies has enjoyed in the Majors.

Elsewhere in the infield — things are a bit of a hodgepodge. Not only did Milwaukee acquire Urias, they signed veterans Justin Smoak, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Brock Holt and Ryon Healy. The additions put pressure on incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia to finally tap into the potential that made him an elite prospect several years ago. That collection of veterans will surround second baseman Keston Hiura and, occasionally, Braun (when he plays first base). Smoak adds some thump and quality glovework at first base. Gyorko, Sogard and Holt can play all over, adding the type of versatility that the Brewers have emphasized in recent seasons. Sogard and Holt, in particular, offer plus defense at multiple positions.

The pitching staff lost a glut of arms — Davies, Chase Anderson, Drew Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles and Junior Guerra — from a team that graded in the middle of the pack across the board. Milwaukee starters and relievers both ranked between 13th and 18th in terms of ERA and FIP. Clearly, some help was needed, but while many fans pined for a major splash, the Stearns regime has never demonstrated a willingness to sign a pitcher to a lucrative, long-term deal. The two-year, $15MM contract inked by Jhoulys Chacin two winters ago is the most expensive contract given to a pitcher by this iteration of the front office, and the three-year, $9.125MM deal given to wildcard Josh Lindblom this winter is the longest contract to which Stearns has ever signed a free-agent starting pitcher.

The Lindblom deal was the first and most interesting of several smaller-scale additions to the Milwaukee staff. The 32-year-old Lindblom was a second-round pick of the Dodgers back in 2005 but never solidified himself in the big leagues. Stints with Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Texas, Oakland and Pittsburgh didn’t pan out, and Lindblom went to South Korea on multiple occasions to pitch in the KBO.

As I detailed at greater length early in the offseason, Lindblom dove headfirst into a more analytical approach to pitching in his most recent KBO tenure and overhauled his pitch repertoire, adopting a splitter that proved to be a knockout offering. He won consecutive Choi Dong-won Awards — South Korea’s Cy Young equivalent — in 2018-19 and was named the KBO MVP this past season. Lindblom isn’t overpowering in terms of velocity and will turn 33 this June, but he’s posted highly appealing strikeout rates, control, spin rates and exit velocities in Korea.

Veteran ground-ball savant Brett Anderson represents the only other rotation addition for the Brewers, who’ll rely on a combination of Brandon Woodruff, Anderson, Adrian Houser, Lindblom, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes to start games early on. As explored early in camp, it’s a group that’s light on name recognition — Anderson excluded — but one with a good bit of upside. The Brewers will also surely leverage some openers and generally unorthodox deployments of their pitchers. Few teams play matchups and shuffle the deck with their pitching staff as much as Milwaukee. It’s a strategy that regularly draws criticism from onlookers — but one that has produced generally favorable results in recent years.

In the ’pen, the Brewers brought back Alex Claudio on a low-cost one-year deal and inked righty David Phelps to an even more affordable pact that comes with a 2020 option. The 28-year-old Claudio has been clobbered by right-handed hitters in his career, making his return a bit curious given the impending three-batter minimum. He’ll surely still be deployed against lefties as often as possible, but an increase in disadvantageous matchups against righties feels almost inevitable. Phelps, meanwhile, will hope to bounce back to his pre-Tommy John form, when he looked to be emerging as a high-end setup piece between Seattle and Miami (142 1/3 innings, 2.72 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9).

Corey Knebel’s return could be the biggest upgrade for the Brewers’ bullpen, though. The 28-year-old was on par with Josh Hader in terms of bullpen dominance in 2017, when he posted a 1.76 ERA in 76 2/3 innings with just under 15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but pairing a healthy Knebel with Hader would create a dominant one-two punch at the back of games. Some combination of Phelps, Claudio, Brent Suter, whichever of Peralta or Burnes isn’t starting games and perhaps the flamethrowing Ray Black could create a quality all-around unit.

Speaking of Peralta, his own extension is certainly worth highlighting. The young righty’s five-year, $15.5MM deal carries minimal downside for the club and comes with enormous potential for surplus value, particularly when considering a pair of club options that would total an eminently reasonable $14MM. It’s the sort of deal that makes agents cringe — Peralta himself even acknowledged that his own representatives advised against the deal — but it’s also hard to see how a 23-year-old who is still more potential than production would find it impossible to say no to that type of life-changing payday. Whether he’s in the ’pen or rotation, Peralta should be able to easily justify the investment with even moderate productivity. For a typically low- to medium-payroll club that just went beyond its traditional comfort zone to extend the face of the franchise, the potential cost efficiency such a contract creates is vital.

2020 Season Outlook

Questions about the Brewers’ pitching staff abound, but that’s nothing new for Stearns, manager Craig Counsell and the rest of the organization’s top decision-makers. Woodruff has demonstrated top-of-the-rotation potential, and Anderson has generally been a quality rotation stabilizer when healthy (which, admittedly, has been sporadic). There’s reason to dream on any of Houser, Lindblom, Peralta, Burnes or Lauer as a quality mid-rotation piece.

On the offensive side of things, it’s similarly difficult to forecast how things will play out. Milwaukee was a middle-of-the-road club in terms of total runs scored and wRC+ in 2019, and they’re losing both Grandal and Moustakas. At the same time, they’ll subtract an unthinkably poor chunk of at-bats from Travis Shaw, whose abrupt downturn at the plate caught everyone by surprise. Narvaez himself brings a pretty nice bat to the equation, and Garcia adds some production and upside to the mix. Smoak has plenty of power and a steady glove. It’s easy to see the infield as a strong group if things break right, but there’s readily apparent risk in relying on a group of options that has demonstrated such high levels of volatility in recent seasons.

The Brewers arguably have a wider range of plausible outcomes for their 2020 season than any club in the National League. That’s to be expected for a team whose offseason consisted on short-term, relatively low-AAV bets on what amounts to nearly half its roster. It’s a bulk approach to offseason acquisition the likes of which we haven’t seen in recent years, but perhaps one that was necessary for a team with minimal upper-level depth in the minors after depleting the farm via trades in recent years.

How would you grade the Brewers’ 2020 offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users) 

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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A season after locking superstar Nolan Arenado into a long-term deal, the Rockies entered the offseason with a payroll bordering on the highest in team history. Despite flirting with the idea of moving Arenado and his mega deal, Colorado largely stood pat. When the 2020 season begins, they will confront their rivals in the NL West with close to the same team that racked up 91 losses a year ago.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Mujica, RHP: $563K, split contract
  • Total spend: $563K

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

  • None

Extensions

  • Trevor Story, SS: Two years, $27.5MM (includes $2MM signing bonus, $8MM salary in 2020, $17.5MM salary in 2021)
  • Scott Oberg, RHP: Three years, $13MM deal ($2MM in 2020, $4MM in 2021, $7MM in 2022, $8MM team option for 2023)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It’s been a long offseason for Rockies’ fans, even before COVID-19 put the season on temporary hold. The team that lost 91 games in 2019 didn’t get anything in the way of reinforcements over the winter. Executive VP & GM Jeff Bridich handed out just one major league contract — to Jose Mujica, a candidate for the rotation, though he has yet to make his major league debut. Mujica, 23, became a minor league free agent after six seasons in the Rays’ system. The 2019 season would have been his seventh with Tampa had he not undergone Tommy John and missed the entire year. In 2018, Mujica ascended as high as Triple-A where he notched a 2.80 ERA/2.81 FIP across 36 2/3 innings. He enjoyed good luck in the home run department over that span, as just 2.6% of the flyballs he allowed left the yard, but there’s at least a reasonable expectation for Mujica to join the pool of rotation candidates in Colorado, especially given their uncertainty in that department.

Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.

The third would be 2018. The Rockies pulled off a 91-win season the year before last, and though the pitching staff finished with a 4.33 ERA — slightly higher than the league average at 4.27 — they outplayed their pythagorean record by six wins and came within a play-in game of stealing the divisional crown from the Dodgers. Last season, the team ERA ballooned to 5.66, and Bud Black’s crew reversed their fortunes from a year before. The Rox weren’t the only pitchers to struggle last season, of course, as the league’s ERA on the whole ballooned from 4.27 in 2018 to 4.62 in 2019, but few staffs did so as mightily as the Rockies.

Regardless of where the league ERA falls in 2020, the blueprint is clear: if the Rockies can eek out average production from their pitchers, they’ll have a shot at contention. Unfortunately, the only additions from outside the organization this winter (beyond Mujica) were minor league signings like Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Collins, Daniel Bard and Zac Rosscup. Jimenez made his debut in the rotation for that 2007 team, and he fronted the staff by 2009. Maybe there’s some wisdom he can impart about how to manage in Coors Field, but he’s unlikely to make much of a contribution on the hill. The 36-year-old last pitched in the majors in 2017 for the Orioles.

Collins may actually help in the bullpen, as he’s put up consistently solid ERAs when healthy. He shouldn’t be affected by the new three-batter rule either, with near identical splits versus lefties (.226/.339/.381) and versus righties (.235/.332/.358). That said, he’s yet to really re-establish himself after missing all of the 2015 and 2016 seasons after undergoing, you guessed it, Tommy John.

Worse yet for the Rockies, the messaging out of Colorado immediately after the season ended was that of befuddlement and frustration. Given that they didn’t spend much effort pursuing free agents, perhaps they’ve had time to figure out if the new baseball really was unduly launch-able in Colorado’s thin air, but as of November, the organization was still reeling and seemingly at a loss. Of course, a lot of time has passed since then, and time will tell if more stringent adherence to mechanical repetition can return Colorado hurlers like Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, and German Marquez to unleashing better versions of themselves. Without bounce-back campaigns from their rotation – as well as closer Wade Davis, who was recently re-minted the ninth-inning man despite a 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP in 2019 – the Rockies will have a tough time recording outs with consistency enough to compete in an increasingly competitive NL West.

On the position-player side, the Rockies should remain competitive, though their activity this winter was hardy encouraging. Mostly, they spent the winter engaged in a cold war with their franchise player, who felt “disrespected” by the organization while expressly voicing his desire to play for a contender. All is not lost, however, and Arenado remains an extremely valuable asset, even while raking in $35MM a year. He’s that good.

And yet, the rift between Arenado and the club is unsettling. For now, the Rockies have probably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball, but Trevor Story may not be a lifer in Colorado either. Story signed an extension this winter, which on its face may seem like a positive, but it merely preserves an existing window of control before he’s slated to qualify for free agency. Story’s deal settled his final two seasons of arbitration without buying out any free agent years.

Then there’s this: The expiration date of Story’s new deal coincides with a lot of money coming off the books in Colorado. Barring a long-term agreement, he’ll be a free agent after the 2021 season, at which time the Rockies will also be free of current upscale rosterees like Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Ian Desmond, as well as Gray, the presumptive staff ace, who enters his final arbitration season in 2021. Arenado, as well, has an opt out that same offseason. The Rockies essentially have two seasons before they could face a complete organizational reset – which means the clock is ticking on any opportunities to get out in front of these free agent departures.

The offseason, however, felt anything but urgent. Having ramped up salaries in the past several years, Colorado doesn’t appear willing to spend beyond the current level. With an opening day payroll set to be around $156MM, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource, the payroll remains exactly where it was at the start of this offseason.

Despite their overall stagnancy, the Rockies did extend their best bullpen arm in Scott Oberg. Bridich has poured a lot of money into the bullpen in recent years, and the results haven’t exactly been gold-star worthy. But the Oberg investment looks solid. Over 105 games the last two seasons, he’s put up a 2.35 ERA/3.20 FIP with 9.0 K/9 versus 2.7 BB/9, and the financial terms are modest.

2020 Outlook

It’s bound to be a tough season in Colorado. If they struggle out of the gate, the frigidity between the club and Arenado isn’t likely to improve, and the trade rumors will continue to swirl. They’ve shown no inclination towards dealing any of their top trade chips (Arenado, Story, Gray, David Dahl), but if the pitching doesn’t make an immediate and drastic 180 at the start of the season, Bridich may be forced to consider his options.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

GM Trade History: Brewers’ David Stearns

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings. In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership. The same can hold true of major extensions. It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well. But when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason, the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. After covering the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen and former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, today we’ll move to David Stearns of the Brewers. (In chronological order and excluding minor deals. Full details at transaction link.)

2019-20 Offseason

2019 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2018 Season

2017-18

2017 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2016 Season

2015-16 Offseason

—

How would you grade Stearns for his overall work on the trade front? (Poll link for app users.)

GM Trade History: Jeff Luhnow

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It wasn’t long ago that many regarded Jeff Luhnow as one of the best general managers in baseball. The former Cardinals executive took the reins of a horrible Houston team after the 2011 season, oversaw a couple atrocious campaigns and then helped it morph into a juggernaut. Thanks in part to Luhnow’s work, the Astros are coming off three straight seasons of at least 100 victories. They won their first-ever World Series in 2017 and took home the American League pennant in 2019 on Luhnow’s watch.

Despite the accomplishments the Astros piled up under Luhnow, he’s now disgraced, suspended for a year and unemployed. Everything came crashing down for Luhnow during the offseason because of an Astros sign-stealing scandal that has called their recent success into question. As a result, Luhnow may never work in baseball again, let alone as a GM. Nevertheless, it’s worth looking back on his tenure atop the Astros’ baseball operations.

With no real baseball going on for the foreseeable future, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd began a series Tuesday examining the trade histories of GMs. We might explore all current GMs’ swaps, but even though he’s without a job, Luhnow makes for a fascinating enough case to warrant his own post. With that said, we’ll take a look back at the notable trades Luhnow made in Houston. You can assess his trade history after reviewing it…

2011-12 Offseason

2012 Season

2012-13 Offseason

2013 Season

2013-14 Offseason

2014 Season

2014-15 Offseason

2o15 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

No one knows whether Luhnow will get another chance as a GM. His history of trades may play a role in that. How do you think he did in that department during his reign in Houston? (Poll link for app users)

Rebound Candidate: Justin Smoak

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The Brewers entered the free-agent period with a void at first base. They let go of their top option from last year, Eric Thames, declining his $7.5MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Months before that, the Brewers traded right-handed complement Jesus Aguilar to the Rays. The Brewers are now set to rely on former Mariner, Ranger and Blue Jay Justin Smoak, whom they signed to a $5MM guarantee in December. Smoak’s contract also includes a $5.5MM option for 2021. Both prices are eminently fair, and there’s reason to believe that Smoak will justify Milwaukee’s investment.

To start off, it’s worth noting how Smoak got to this point. He’s a former standout prospect who has seldom matched the hype. The switch-hitting 33-year-old owns a mediocre .231/.324/.420 line with a 104 wRC+ (the league-average mark is 100) and 6.2 fWAR across 4,618 plate appearances. However, Smoak did somewhat begin to realize his potential in recent years. He put up in the best years of his career from 2017-18, a 1,231-PA stretch in which he batted .256/.353/.495 (128 wRC+) with 63 of his 191 home runs and posted almost all of his lifetime fWAR (5.3).

On the heels of his two consecutive strong seasons, there wasn’t reason to think Smoak would fall off in 2019. Unfortunately for him and the Blue Jays, it happened. He took 500 trips to the plate and could only muster a line of .208/.342/.406 (101 wRC+). Smoak did amass another 22 homers, but his overall production (0.2 fWAR) rendered him a replacement player. So, if you’re a Brewers fan who isn’t expecting much from Smoak in 2020, that’s understandable. However, it does appear that he deserved better a season ago, which could bode well for this year.

Despite his so-so output in his last campaign in Toronto, Smoak did manage much better strikeout and walk numbers than the typical hitter. He drew a free pass 15.8 percent of the time, almost doubling the MLB mean of 8.5 percent, and struck out in 21.2 percent of plate appearances (the league average was 23 percent). Additionally, he upped his hard-hit rate by almost 9 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. Smoak also swung and missed in just 8.9 percent of PA (the normal hitter checked in at 11.1) and rated as one of Statcast’s favorite under-the-radar offensive players from last season. He ranked in the league’s 72nd percentile in average exit velocity (90.3 mph), its 76th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.495, crushing his actual mark of .406) and its 86th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (.366, far outdoing his real wOBA of .323).

None of the above guarantees Smoak will rebound in 2020. That said, when you combine his bottom-line production from 2018-19 with his under-the-hood numbers from last year, he looks like a logical bounce-back candidate for this season. From the low-budget Brewers’ perspective, it was worthwhile to take a chance on Smoak.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

GM Trade History: D-Backs’ Mike Hazen

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings. In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership. The same can hold true of major extensions. It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well. But when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason, the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. First up: Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen. (In chronological order and excluding minor deals. Full details at transaction link.)

2019-20 Offseason

2019 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2018 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2017 Season

2016-17 Offseason

—

So … how would you grade Hazen’s overall work as a dealmaker? (Poll link for app users.)

Rookie Radar: AL Central

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action. Having already looked at the American League West, let’s head to the AL Central:

Indians

Third baseman Nolan Jones won’t be tasked with a big league job out of the gates, but could be an option if there’s a need and/or he develops as hoped. Soon to turn 22, Jones has done nothing but produce in the minors. He’s due for a bit more seasoning at Triple-A but is close to ready.

Otherwise, most of the best-regarded Cleveland farmhands are further off. But there are some other prospects of note who are immediate factors. Relievers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak could hold key bullpen roles, though the former will first need to get to full health. Southpaw Logan Allen is a swingman option. First baseman Bobby Bradley and outfielder Daniel Johnson are both on the 40-man roster and ready for MLB chances after strong seasons in the upper minors. (Bradley also made a brief 2019 debut but struggled in the bigs.)

Royals

The rebuilding Royals need not be in any rush, but top pitching prospects Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar could force the organization’s hand. The former sprinted to Double-A in his first professional season; the latter in his second. They both looked plenty comfortable at the penultimate level of the minors and will likely dictate their own timelines.

Otherwise, there are only a few players with significant “prospect” billing who seem likely to be near-term options. Outfielder Nick Heath and third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez are both on the 40-man roster, so could be called upon to fill any injury gaps. Outfielder Khalil Lee is considered a higher-upside young player, though he’ll need to polish some things up if he’s to force his way onto the MLB roster in 2020. The pitching staff could call upon inexperienced arms including Scott Blewett, Chance Adams, and Richard Lovelady.

Twins

The Minnesota organization just keeps getting more intriguing. Depending upon the development of some top prospects and needs at the MLB level, it could be another year for interesting graduations … or one to watch and wait.

Top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both have the ability and the positioning to press for the majors in the near term. But will they force the issue … or will there be an opening? The Twins aren’t in need of help at shortstop or in the outfield, at least on paper, but both have star-level upside and will get their chance when the time is right.

Outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker doesn’t have a clear path to the bigs just yet but could get a look if a need arises. Though he is no longer considered an elite prospect, infielder Nick Gordon is also a near-term option. His situation is helped by the fact he already has a 40-man roster spot. Likewise, having already debuted, lefty Lewis Thorpe is perhaps the best-regarded Minnesota pitching prospect who’s an immediate possibility for the majors, though we’ll surely see fellow lefty Devin Smeltzer and right-hander Randy Dobnak in 2020 as well. Both impressed in their 2019 debuts. Flamethrowing righty Jorge Alcala allowed two runs in 20 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors after moving to the ’pen in late July.

Tigers

The Detroit organization is banking on its pitching factory. We’ll begin to see the results in the immediate future. Top starting prospects Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Beau Burrows, and Alex Faedo are all nearing readiness. And the team also has some promising relievers on tap, including Bryan Garcia, Anthony Castro, and perhaps Rule 5 choice Rony Garcia. Precisely when and how these arms will be slotted into the MLB staff remains to be seen. In the starting staff, especially, the organization has others in line first. But mid-season movement is highly possible (depending, in no small part, upon what shape the 2020 season takes).

Though the position-player side of the farm isn’t as loaded, there are quite a few near-term candidates for MLB roles. Infielders Isaac Paredes, Willi Castro, and Sergio Alcantara all have 40-man spots and can be called upon as soon as there’s a need or desire to do so. Ditto outfielder Daz Cameron, a player who has had ups and downs in the minors but still possesses a fairly lofty ceiling. Catcher Jake Rogers had an abysmal debut with the bat but hit well in the upper minors last year and is considered a quality defender.

White Sox

Last but certainly not least … the South Siders are stacked with young players who’ll be given MLB trials in the near term. Recently extended center fielder Luis Robert leads the charge as one of the game’s most touted prospects. But there are other blue-chippers as well. Given the delay in the season, high-upside righty Michael Kopech will have a chance to finish rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. And recent first-rounder Nick Madrigal has little left to show in the upper minors. He could take over at second base and push Leury Garcia into a utility role.

Those are the big names, but there are others as well. Infielder Danny Mendick had a nice cup of coffee last year and could also be a platoon option at second base or take on a utility job. With a 26th roster spot to work with, bat-first catchers Zack Collins and Seby Zavala could play interesting roles. Righties Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton will have to overcome health troubles but could end up playing significant roles in the bullpen if they’re able.

Rebound Candidate: Alex Wood

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On a per-inning basis, left-hander Alex Wood has been one of the most effective pitchers in Major League Baseball throughout his career. He debuted in 2013, just one year after the Braves chose him in the second round of the draft, and has regularly kept runs off the board at an excellent clip. Now 29 years old, the soft-tossing Wood owns a terrific 3.40 ERA/3.49 FIP with 8.24 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 49 percent groundball rate over 839 innings.

All of Wood’s above-average production has come as a Brave and a Dodger. He spent last season with the Reds, who acquired him in a blockbuster deal a few months before the campaign began. Wood, the Reds hoped, would help their rotation reverse its fortunes after a horrid 2018. It turned out that the Reds made enormous strides in that area in 2019, but Wood had nothing to do with it. Rather, they can thank Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Anthony DeSclafani and the now-departed Tanner Roark for the progress they made.

The Reds could have retained Wood in the offseason and anticipated a bounce-back effort, but they instead saw him leave via free agency. That came after a poor year in which Wood was limited by injuries, which have been a problem for him all too often. Wood has racked up fewer than 155 innings four straight years, including 35 2/3 last season. Back troubles limited the Reds’ version of Wood, keeping him from debuting until the final week of July. Wood only lasted a month after that, totaling seven starts of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP ball with 7.57 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9. His groundball rate (38.2) dropped by almost 12 percent from the prior year along the way.

The 2019 season was undoubtedly a disaster for Wood, though he nonetheless entered the free-agent market as one of the most accomplished hurlers available. He does, after all, rank 28th among starters in ERA and 32nd in FIP dating back to the beginning of his career. New teammate and fellow southpaw David Price is among several prominent names grouped with Wood in those regards.

Wood and Price may well end up playing significant roles for the World Series-hopeful Dodgers’ rotation this season. Price is a lock after coming over in a headline-grabbing trade with the Red Sox, and Wood might join him after reuniting with the Dodgers on a one-year, $4MM guarantee as a free agent. Despite his impressive track record, Wood couldn’t land a job via the open market until Jan. 12. Still, it’s tough to find fault with the gamble on the deep-pocketed Dodgers’ part.

This has been a difficult year-plus for Wood, but he has been an asset for almost all of his time in the majors. With that in mind, it would be fair to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. If Wood’s healthy in 2020, he may emerge as a steal for Los Angeles, arguably the favorite to win the World Series this year. With Wood complementing Price, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias, and with Dustin May in reserve, maybe this will finally be the season the Dodgers return to the top of the MLB mountain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Images.

Breakout Candidate: Robert Stephenson

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We don’t know if or when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but should it occur, the Reds will enter the campaign as one of the most interesting teams in the game. You wouldn’t normally say that about a club in the throes of a six-year playoff drought – one that hasn’t even posted a .500 season during that span – but the Reds made a spirited effort to upgrade their roster over the winter. Cincinnati’s additions figure to help the team in what could be a wide-open race in the National League Central, though it will obviously need its top performers from 2019 to continue their strong play. That includes right-handed reliever Robert Stephenson, who may be on the verge of a breakout.

Now 27 years old, Stephenson entered pro baseball as the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He was a consensus top-100 prospect for a few years during his days as a minor leaguer, though he hasn’t eluded adversity by any means. It took Stephenson quite some time to find his niche in the majors, where he worked as both a starter and a reliever from 2016-18 and put up an ugly 5.47 ERA/5.50 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 5.67 BB/9 over 133 1/3 innings. Stephenson was exclusively a reliever last season, though, and the proverbial light bulb went on.

Across 57 appearances and 64 2/3 innings, Stephenson logged a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. Those make for good numbers, not otherworldly production, but a deeper dive suggests Stephenson may have more in the tank.

Among qualified relievers in 2019, Stephenson ranked third in swinging-strike percentage (18.9), trailing only the Brewers’ Josh Hader and the Rays’ Nick Anderson. Those two are rightly regarded as superb relievers. For Stephenson, a notable increase in velocity was one of the causes of his success. After averaging 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2018, the number jumped to 95.0 a year ago. However, Stephenson’s slider – not his fastball – was his go-to pitch. He threw it a little under 57 percent of the time, per FanGraphs, which graded it as the best in baseball among all relievers. The pitch was indeed an absolute nightmare to contend with for hitters, who mustered an abysmal .176 weighted on-base average/.198 xwOBA against it, according to Statcast.

Speaking of Statcast, it ranked Stephenson as a top-notch hurler in several categories last year. See for yourself…

  • Fastball velocity: 78th percentile
  • Exit velocity: 81st percentile
  • Fastball spin: 86th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 88th percentile
  • xwOBA: 98th percentile
  • Hard-hit percentage: 98th percentile

That’ll do. Granted, Stephenson did benefit from a .230 batting average on balls in play against in 2019, but considering his tendency to limit meaningful contact, he deserves a good amount of credit for that. If he’s going to take the next step, though, keeping the ball out of the air would probably help. Stephenson owns a career 34.9 percent groundball rate, including just 31.8 last season. That said, the home run bug didn’t bite him, which it did with so many other pitchers. Only 12.7 percent of fly balls Stephenson yielded left the yard. Beyond that, a better showing versus opposite-handed hitters would help push Stephenson into the upper tier when it comes to preventing runs. Left-handed hitters’ wOBA (.315) off him was 94 points higher than righties’ (.221). That’s not to say a .315 wOBA is particularly threatening, however, as it’s in line with the figure light hitters such as Colin Moran and Nick Ahmed recorded last season.

There is undoubtedly plenty to like with Stephenson. Even if he just matches last year’s output, Stephenson may be one of the reasons the Reds push for contention in 2020. But if Stephenson puts it all together, we could be looking at one of the premier relievers in baseball.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rookie Radar: AL West

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action, starting with the American League West:

Angels

There’s loads of excitement at the top of the farm. The Halos have one of the game’s very best overall prospects in Jo Adell. Perhaps their best chance of catching the Astros lies in Adell taking the league by storm and combining with Mike Trout and (a hopefully resurgent) Justin Upton to form one of the game’s best outfields. Another highly regarded young outfielder, Brandon Marsh, is also close. An elbow injury limited him this spring, but he’ll hopefully rehab through that while the game is on pause.

Otherwise, the Angels will certainly hope they get a significant contribution out of lefty Patrick Sandoval. The 23-year-old took some lumps last year but did put up a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in his first ten MLB outings.

Astros

The division’s dominant force enters the season facing a few questions in the MLB staff. Fortunately, there are a bunch of arms coming. Forrest Whitley still has immense upside despite a brutal 2019 season. He’ll be tasked with getting back on track in the upper minors. Having snuck past Whitley, Jose Urquidy will slot right back into the big league rotation. He’s not known for his high-powered arsenal, but he was highly effective late last year — even including a remarkable performance when pressed into postseason duties (one earned run, 12:2 K/BB in ten innings).

High-octane righty Bryan Abreu also got some playoff action after a strong relief showing late in the season. He could be a force in the pen. Fellow right-handers Christian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Brandon Bielak are also on the rise.

Another well-regarded player who debuted in 2019 is third baseman Abraham Toro. He smashed minor-league pitching but didn’t thrive in a 25-game run in the majors. Toro had also struggled in Grapefruit League action this spring, but it’d be a surprise if he isn’t called upon at some point in 2020.

Athletics

There’s loads of talent ready to see action in Oakland. Lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk recovered from injuries and hit the majors last year. They’ll draw loads of attention, and rightly so, but that’s just the start. Righties Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian could also push for their debuts.

There are names to watch on the position player side as well. The A’s have a bevy of youthful backstops who’ll be entrusted with holding down the catching duties. Sean Murphy put himself on everyone’s map last year. He could be joined by Austin Allen, but fellow young receiver Jonah Heim is also a factor. Infielders Sheldon Neuse will factor, though he hasn’t hit much this spring and didn’t impress in his 2019 debut. It remains to be seen how the club will handle the out-of-options Jorge Mateo with strong competition at second base. Outfielder Luis Barrera hasn’t yet debuted but earned a 40-man spot after a solid partial season at Double-A.

Mariners

On the pitching side, lefty Justus Sheffield has been on the map for some time and is in need of extended testing at the game’s highest level. Righty Justin Dunn had some struggles in his brief debut last year but is competing for a MLB job in camp. Recent first-rounder Logan Gilbert ran up to Double-A in his first professional season and now stands as a consensus top-100 prospect.

Several position players are sure to factor in the bigs as well. Recently extended first baseman Evan White is obviously slated for a big role. And the M’s may well go ahead and provide long looks to 24-year-old outfielders Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis, each of whom cracked the bigs last year. The Seattle org will want to get a sense of their outlook. After all, there’s more talent coming up behind. It never seemed likely we’d see much-hyped outfield prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez in 2020. With some or all of the minor-league season now gone, it’s even less likely.

Rangers

Most of the best-regarded Texas farmhands are still queuing up further down the system. But there are a few players vying for immediate playing time.

First and foremost, infielder/outfielder Nick Solak is almost sure to fit … well, somewhere. He has featured in the team’s planning all winter, even if the vision for where and how much he’d play has shifted as the Rangers pursued offseason additions. It’s plausible to imagine Solak appearing at first, second, third, and anywhere in the outfield as needs dictate.

Unless and until there’s an injury, the rotation doesn’t have any space. But lefty Joe Palumbo could be among the first names on call if a need arises, or he could slot into the pen. Righty DeMarcus Evans joined the 40-man after a lights-out 2019 season and seems likely to get a crack at the majors at some point.

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