The White Sox Have Decisions To Make With Munetaka Murakami
Slugger Munetaka Murakami had to settle for a two-year “prove-it” deal with the White Sox this past offseason. It’s still early in the major league career but he is quickly proving it, which means the Sox have to decide on the path forward.
Murakami’s power was never in doubt. His time in Japan had yielded dozens of massive moonshots. The strikeouts were more concerning. He struck out almost 30% of the time in his final NPB seasons. Coming over to North America to face a greater caliber of pitching would probably lead to even more strikeouts. There were particular concerns around his lack of success against high velocity, which he would certainly see more of in MLB.
It’s hard to be a valuable hitter with that many punchouts, though it can be done. In 2025, Mike Trout and James Wood were good hitters despite striking out at least 32% of the time. Ryan McMahon and Oneil Cruz were also in that range and produced below-average results.
Many evaluators thought some team would bite the bullet and invest in Murakami regardless. It’s very rare to have a chance to sign this level of hitter for his age-26 season. There’s risk he could be like Joey Gallo but the upside play is that he resembles Kyle Schwarber. MLBTR predicted he would secure an eight-year deal worth $180MM. Other outlets were not far behind. FanGraphs predicted $154MM over seven years. The Athletic was at $158.5MM over eight years.
Murakami did not get anything close to that. Whether it was due to the strikeouts or his lack of defensive value, teams didn’t want to make a long-term commitment. He signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the White Sox.
We don’t know what other offers Murakami got. Maybe some teams floated three- or four-year arrangements. But from his perspective, if he didn’t get the real long-term offer, going short makes sense. As mentioned, he is still quite young. This deal gives him a chance to spend two years proving himself against big league pitching. He’ll be 26 and 27 in those seasons and will have another chance to seek a long-term deal ahead of his age-28 campaign.
It was thought that maybe there would be an adjustment period for Murakami, but so far he’s doing just fine. The strikeouts are certainly high, as he’s at 32.1% through 109 plate appearances. But he also has ten home runs and a massive 19.3% walk rate. He has a .253/.394/.598 line and a 170 wRC+.
The production is not exactly Schwarber-esque but is pretty close. Schwarber has a 28.5% strikeout rate in his career and hasn’t finished a full season above 31%. He has drawn walks at a 14.2% clip and has been in that range for most of his career. He used to be good for 30ish homers annually but it’s been more like 50ish in recent years. It’s still really early, but Murakami is striking out more often while showing even more power and greater on-base abilities.
Time will tell how it plays out over a larger sample. It’s possible that pitchers find a way to attack him and reduce his effectiveness. Despite the concerns about velocity, he’s doing most of his damage against fastballs. Statcast gives him a .286 batting average and .786 slugging percentage on fastballs, compared to .200 and .400 against breaking pitches and .267 and .467 against offspeed stuff. It’s also possible he continues to get more acclimated to MLB pitching and shaves off some punchouts.
If he continues to be an effective hitter for another few months, it will put the White Sox in an interesting position. It doesn’t feel like Murakami is going to be part of their long-term plans. They are currently rebuilding and aren’t expected to contend this year. The Sox are getting better relative to recent years but are 10-15 and should be on the outside of the playoff race this summer. 2027 could be more viable, but contending next year is no guarantee.
The White Sox could try to sign Murakami to an extension, giving him the nine-figure deal he didn’t get in free agency, but it would be out of character for them to do so. The Sox are one of just two teams, along with the Athletics, who have never given out a nine-figure contract. The largest contract in White Sox franchise history is the five-year, $75MM deal they gave to Andrew Benintendi. If he continues performing anywhere close to this level, he could reasonably ask for twice that much (if not more) on a new long-term deal.
If the Sox are going to break precedent, it should probably be for someone safer, an elite shortstop or center fielder perhaps. A strikeout-prone first baseman is a risky bet, even if it’s someone as exciting as Murakami. If the deal turned into an albatross, it would handcuff the team just as they are looking to put this latest rebuild in the rearview mirror.
This situation would lead to an obvious solution in most cases. If you’re a rebuilding club and you have an attractive player with a short window of club control, you trade him for prospects or other younger players who can contribute to the next competitive window. Trading Murakami this summer would yield a greater trade return than next year. The acquiring club would get Murakami for two playoff races instead of one, which adds to the appeal and the price they would be willing to pay.
But Murakami’s situation is a bit more complex than that. For a team signing a star Japanese player, part of the appeal is on the business side. In addition to whatever Murakami is providing on the field, he is presumably adding to the club’s ratings and merchandise sales in Japan. Given his strong start, he might be adding to those revenue streams on this side of the Pacific Ocean as well.
That could make the calculus more complicated. Trading Murakami this summer would be the best time to maximize his value in terms of a trade return, but it would also surely lead to a reduction in those revenue streams and frustrate the fan base. It’s also possible it could complicate discussions with Japanese free agents in the future, who may not love the prospect of a likely sign-and-trade scenario.
If the Sox decide to hold Murakami, they can keep those revenues flowing for longer. They could then see if contention in 2027 looks more viable. If not, they could still trade him that summer for a notable return, even if it’s less than trading him now. Should they contend and hold him all the way through 2027, they could give him a qualifying offer, which would net them a draft pick if he ends up signing elsewhere. That pick would be nice, but the Sox should be able to get something more attractive via trade. There’s also the risk of Murakami tanking his value by next summer, either due to injury or a decline in production.
It’s an interesting position for the Sox, who are in a transitional phase. In addition to rebuilding, they are on an unusual road to an ownership change. Jerry Reinsdorf has agreed to a succession plan with minority owner Justin Ishbia. For now, Ishbia is investing in the club and has a somewhat open-ended path to majority ownership. From 2029 to 2033, Reinsdorf can decide to finalize the sale of a majority stake to Ishbia. If not within that window, Ishbia gains the right to purchase the majority stake beginning in 2034.
As mentioned, the possibility of a Murakami extension doesn’t seem likely, based on the club’s past spending patterns. While the club is in flux, does that make them even less likely to sign a big deal? It’s also possible the next collective bargaining agreement features some sort of salary floor beginning in 2027, so the Sox may need to spend more money regardless. Perhaps they would want some clarity on that before committing to Murakami or anyone else.
Put it all together and Murakami could be one of the more intriguing players to watch in the coming months. The Sox can make various different choices about how to proceed. They could try to lock him down with a long-term deal but would likely have to shatter their franchise record to do so. A trade this summer would net a big return but would hurt them on the business side. Holding him for a trade in the winter or at next year’s deadline, or even all the way through 2027, could be a better short-term business decision but perhaps worse long-term baseball decision.
Photos courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images
Poll: Should The Blue Jays Make A Closer Change?
The defending American League champions have had a difficult first few weeks. Their 10-14 record has them in fourth place in the AL East. The relief group is a big part of that, as the Jays rank 23rd with a 4.81 bullpen ERA. They’ve blown seven leads, tied with the White Sox for third most in MLB (behind the A’s and Nationals at eight apiece).
The problems have extended to the ninth inning. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been charged with three blown saves, which is tied for the MLB high. That doesn’t include Tuesday’s rough outing against the Angels.
Hoffman entered with a three-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. After striking out Zach Neto, he allowed four consecutive batters to reach. Skipper John Schneider turned to Louis Varland with the bases loaded and a 4-2 lead. Varland promptly got Nolan Schanuel to bounce into a game-ending double play. That technically went down as a hold for Hoffman because he recorded an out and left the game with the lead, but it obviously wasn’t what the Jays wanted from their closer.
After the game, Schneider was noncommittal on sticking with the righty in the ninth. “We’ll reevaluate everything, talk with him, see how he’s doing. He’s going through it obviously a little bit,” Schneider told reporters on Wednesday (links via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Jared Greenspan of MLB.com). “We’ll see (about his role).” The skipper noted they’d take advantage of Thursday’s scheduled day off to discuss things with the pitcher.
Hoffman has made 12 appearances on the season. He has allowed at least one run in six of them. The 33-year-old righty has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) over his first 10 2/3 innings. Hoffman has given up 16 hits, walked six batters, and hit a pair on Tuesday. He has successfully locked down a trio of saves.
The bottom line results have been terrible, but Hoffman ranks near the top of the league in strikeouts. He has fanned 24 of 57 opponents, a monster 42.1% clip. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, only Mason Miller has a superior strikeout rate. Hoffman’s 21.2% swinging strike percentage is also second behind Miller’s unbelievable 30.3% mark. All four of Hoffman’s pitches have missed bats and his velocity is at usual levels.
There’s clearly some amount of bad luck in Hoffman’s early results. Opponents have hit above .600 when they’ve put the ball in play. If he were coming off a dominant 2025 season, the Jays would surely give him more rope to allow the batted ball variance to even out.
However, his first year in Toronto was up and down. Hoffman recorded 33 saves but ranked second among relievers with 15 home runs allowed. He had a 4.37 earned run average across 68 regular season innings. Hoffman was excellent for the majority of the postseason until allowing the famous Miguel Rojas home run in the ninth inning of World Series Game 7 — his only homer and blown save of the playoffs.
If the Jays move Hoffman out of the ninth, Varland would be the obvious choice to replace him as the closer. Last year’s deadline pickup has begun his ’26 campaign without allowing an earned run through 13 innings. He has fanned 19 hitters against three walks. Varland has been an excellent setup man but has no closing experience. Tuesday’s one-pitch outing was the first save of his MLB career.
Varland has clearly outperformed Hoffman through a few weeks, but naming him the closer would limit Schneider’s flexibility to use him earlier in games. No Toronto pitcher has entered in higher-leverage situations on average than Varland, as the biggest at-bats aren’t always in the ninth inning. Hoffman is third in that regard, also behind the already optioned Brendon Little. The Jays also have Tyler Rogers and Braydon Fisher in key late-game roles.
How should the Jays proceed?
How should the Blue Jays approach the ninth inning?
2026-27 Club Options: AL East
A couple weeks ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald highlighted the players who could choose to return to the free agent market via opt-out clauses. We’ll now take a division by division look at those whose contracts contain club, mutual or vesting options. That kicks off tonight with the AL East.
Although it’s early in the season, a lot of these provisions are fairly easy to predict. The mutual options are almost certain to be declined by either the player or team (usually the latter). They’re accounting measures, essentially an unofficial deferral within the term of the contract itself. The player agrees to push back a percentage of the guaranteed money to the end of the deal in the form of an option buyout — which is paid after the end of the World Series rather than evenly distributed during the regular season as salary.
Baltimore Orioles
- RHP Zach Eflin: $25MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
Eflin’s return to the Orioles was dashed by yet another injury: an elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. The O’s probably weren’t signing up for a $25MM salary even if he’d stayed healthy this year, but this is as obvious a buyout as these decisions get.
- LHP Dietrich Enns: $3.5MM club option ($125K buyout)
Enns pitched well for the O’s down the stretch after a deadline trade from Detroit. The 34-year-old southpaw worked to a 3.14 ERA while striking out 28% of batters faced across 28 2/3 innings. Although he’s nowhere close to six years of MLB service time, his contract contained a 2026 club option that presumably had a clause ensuring he’d become a free agent if the team declined. That’s fairly common for players like Enns who had spent the preceding couple seasons pitching in Asia.
The O’s restructured Enns’ contract to pay him a $2.5MM salary and guarantee a $125K buyout on a $3.5MM team option for the ’27 season. He has walked five batters over 4 1/3 innings to begin this season. Enns landed on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a foot infection. He began a rehab assignment in Triple-A on Saturday. This one is too early to judge.
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle: $7.5MM club option
Mountcastle agreed to tack on a $7.5MM option to avoid going to an arbitration hearing last offseason. Speculatively, that’s probably due to the CBA provision which doesn’t fully guarantee salaries determined at an arbitration hearing until Opening Day. Had Mountcastle not settled, the O’s might’ve released him for termination pay during Spring Training after making a splash on Pete Alonso earlier in the winter.
Although the O’s were surely happy to get the extra year of club control, it probably won’t be of much benefit. Mountcastle broke a bone in his left foot last week and will miss at least two months. It’s his second straight year with a significant injury. He lost a couple months to a hamstring strain in 2025. Mountcastle was already an odd roster fit who’d make more sense as a trade chip. Maybe he’ll return in the second half and hit well enough that the O’s feel the option price is too good to pass up, but it’s likelier this is getting declined.
Boston Red Sox
- LHP Aroldis Chapman: $13MM mutual option ($300K buyout); vests at $13MM at 40 innings pitched
Chapman’s option vests if he reaches 40 innings pitched this season and passes an end of year physical. He has surpassed 40 frames in three straight seasons. He’s at 7 2/3 innings thus far. It’d take at least one injured list stint — probably an absence of 6-8 weeks — for him to fall short of 40 innings.
In any case, the Sox would be happy to have him back at that price if he’s healthy. Chapman was probably the best reliever in MLB last season, firing 61 1/3 innings of 1.17 ERA ball with a 37% strikeout rate. The punchouts are down early this year in an exceedingly tiny sample, yet he has only allowed one run and is 4-4 in save opportunities. He remains at the top of his game at age 38.
- RHP Sonny Gray: $30MM mutual option ($10MM buyout)
Gray restructured his contract as a condition of the offseason trade that sent him from St. Louis to Boston. The deal initially came with a $35MM salary for this year and a $5MM option buyout. Gray agreed to move $4MM of salary back to the buyout while picking up an extra $1MM as a condition for waiving his no-trade clause. He’ll be a free agent.
- RHP Garrett Whitlock: $8.25MM club option ($1MM buyout)
Whitlock’s contract comes with an $8.25MM team option that includes $4MM in unspecified escalators. There’s also a $10.5MM club option for the ’28 season. Whitlock has been one of the best setup arms in MLB throughout his career. He rebounded from an injury-plagued ’24 season to fire 72 frames of 2.25 ERA ball with a 31% strikeout rate last year.
The righty’s command has been a little wobbly this year and his sinker velocity is down a couple ticks. Still, he’s only allowed two earned runs while striking out 11 through his first nine innings. No other Boston reliever is getting higher-leverage assignments on average. This is one of the likelier options to be exercised.
New York Yankees
- None.
Tampa Bay Rays
- 1B Yandy Díaz: $10MM club option; converts to $13MM option which automatically vests at 500 plate appearances
Tampa Bay preemptively locked in Díaz’s $12MM club option for the 2026 season during Spring Training ’25. In exchange, the first baseman gave the team a $10MM option for ’27 that would vest at $13MM as long as he stayed healthy enough to reach 500 plate appearances. Díaz is a little over 20% of the way there. Even if he suffers an injury that takes the vesting provision off the table, he’s been such a good hitter that Tampa Bay would probably be happy to exercise the $10MM option.
- RHP Nick Martinez: $20MM mutual option ($4MM buyout)
The mutual option in the Martinez contract was purely one of the aforementioned accounting mechanisms. The Rays aren’t paying him a $20MM salary even if he pitches to their expectations. He’ll be bought out.
- CF Cedric Mullins: $10MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
The same is very likely true for Mullins. A $10MM option price is rich for Tampa Bay unless the former All-Star outfielder has a resurgent season — in which case, he’d decline his end and look for a multi-year deal. The early returns aren’t encouraging, as Mullins is hitting .156 with two homers through his first 21 games. Over the past calendar year, he’s a .194/.257/.336 hitter.
- RHP Drew Rasmussen: $8MM club option ($500K buyout); option could escalate up to $20MM depending upon Rasmussen’s health and innings total
Before the 2025 season, the Rays signed Rasmussen to a two-year deal that bought out his final arbitration years. It included a complex club option for 2027 that was heavily dependent on his health. The option comes with an $8MM base value but includes up to $12MM in escalators based on starts and time spent on the injured list.
Rasmussen had only once topped 80 MLB innings at the time of his extension. He has undergone multiple elbow procedures and broke into the league as a reliever because of durability concerns. Rasmussen has stayed healthy over the past year-plus. He pitched a career-high 150 innings en route to a top 10 Cy Young placement in 2025. He’s out to a similarly excellent start to the ’26 campaign, allowing just four earned runs through his first 19 2/3 innings.
The option value will begin to climb before long. It’ll jump to $8.5MM once he reaches eight starts and includes additional escalators for every fourth start up through 28 appearances. If he makes 28+ starts, it’d jump to a minimum of $14MM. That’s just the beginning, as the number climbs if he avoids a long-term injured list stint. It’d get up to $20MM if he goes the entire season without an arm injury.
At $8MM, Rasmussen is an unmitigated bargain even for a low-payroll Rays club. The escalators will probably climb quickly enough that he’ll be a trade candidate. That could happen midseason if the team isn’t in the playoff hunt or early next offseason if they hold him at the deadline. If Rasmussen repeats last year’s production, he’s not going to be in any danger of being bought out — as closer Pete Fairbanks was when escalators pushed his option value from $7MM to $11MM.
Note: The Rays hold a $3.1MM club option on INF Taylor Walls. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines.
Toronto Blue Jays
- CF Myles Straw: $8MM club option ($1.75MM buyout); Guardians paying Toronto $1.75MM at season’s end as part of 2025 trade
The Blue Jays acquired Straw in a salary dump trade with the Guardians over the 2024-25 offseason. Toronto agreed to cover $11MM of the remaining two years and $14.75MM on Straw’s underwater contract. (He’d gone unclaimed on waivers that same offseason and was no longer on Cleveland’s 40-man roster.) In exchange, the Guards sent the Jays international bonus pool space. Toronto could then increase their offer to Roki Sasaki by an extra $2MM in a late, ultimately unsuccessful effort to sway the star NPB pitcher away from signing with the Dodgers.
Sasaki’s decision to join L.A. made this initially look like a complete bust for Toronto. To his credit, Straw has salvaged the move. He made the team in 2025 and did a nice job in a fourth outfield role, hitting .262/.313/.367 while playing his typically excellent outfield defense. He’s out to a good start this season as well and provides a high-floor depth option if Daulton Varsho misses any time.
Will that be enough to convince the Jays to keep Straw around? They certainly didn’t anticipate exercising an $8MM option at the time of the trade. That’s made clear enough by the teams’ agreement for the Guardians to send Toronto a $1.75MM payment — which matches the buyout value — at the end of the ’26 season. Cleveland is sending the money either way, though, so it’d amount to a $6.25MM call if the Jays want to bring Straw back.
That’s a little rich for a fourth outfielder, which is what Straw has been for the last few seasons. Varsho is an impending free agent and the Jays don’t have anyone waiting in the wings from the farm system. Straw’s play and the possibility of Varsho walking has made this a tougher call than even the Jays’ front office would have anticipated.
A Look At The Twins’ Intriguing Start
The Twins received an “F” grade from MLBTR readers during our Offseason in Review series. The fact that only 42% of voters deemed the winter a complete failure might have been an upset. Minnesota’s biggest developments of the offseason were the unexpected departure of president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, Pablo Lopez‘s elbow surgery, and … Josh Bell. With 39% of voters giving the Twins a “D” grade, it’s clear the general consensus was that the Twins would not be walking at graduation.
Minnesota’s first five games went as expected. But after a 1-4 start, the club found some momentum. The Twins swept the division rival Tigers in a four-game set. They took series from the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The team dropped a game to the Mets last night to fall back to an even .500, but they’re still tied with Detroit for the 2nd-best run differential in the American League.
A 12-12 record certainly isn’t anything to write home about, but the beginning of the campaign has gone about as well as Minnesota could’ve hoped for, given minimal investment in the club heading into the year. The Twins’ $107MM payroll is down nearly $30MM from 2025. Here’s a look at some of the moves that have spurred Minnesota so far, plus what it could mean when the trade deadline rolls around…
Taj Bradley, reliable starter
The Twins landed Bradley as part of the mass bullpen selloff at the 2025 trade deadline. He came over from the Rays in a straight-up swap for reliever Griffin Jax. It’s been a clear win for Minnesota up to this point, particularly with Jax falling out of the high-leverage mix in Tampa Bay. Bradley has a crisp 1.63 ERA through five starts. He’s boosted his strikeout rate to a career-best 28.8% in large part due to an improved splitter. Bradley’s top swing-and-miss pitch has nearly three additional inches of vertical drop this year. The splitter has generated an elite 43.8% whiff rate.
Bradley isn’t going to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA all season. The right-hander’s xFIP and SIERA are nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA. He’s getting ground balls at a career-low 34.7% clip, while allowing a significant level of hard contact (93.6 mph average exit velocity – 2nd percentile). Given Bradley’s previous struggles with the home run ball, that’ll be worth monitoring as the weather gets warmer and the ball starts traveling. Even if Bradley is a mid-3.00s ERA starter with above-average strikeout stuff, that’s a major boon for a Minnesota rotation without many trustworthy options beyond Joe Ryan.
Mick Abel, backend starter (when healthy)
Speaking of the pitching staff, Abel was emerging as a fixture before going down with elbow inflammation. It’s not expected to be an extended absence, but it was a disappointing diagnosis following back-to-back scoreless outings for the young righty. Abel came over as part of the package from Philadelphia for closer Jhoan Duran. He scuffled in his first two appearances (one in long relief), then shut down the Tigers and Red Sox over 13 frames.
Abel and Bradley both struggled in their initial stints with the Twins last year. It seemed like a leap of faith to expect either one to be a positive contributor in 2026, and Minnesota was relying on both of them. The club didn’t add to the rotation after the Lopez injury, leaving Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson as the top options, along with the two young righties. Any crack in the group would be a problem, but Minnesota’s starters rank ninth in ERA right now.
Taylor Rogers, experienced setup man
Rogers’ return was Minnesota’s only major-league signing on the pitching side. The Twins grabbed him on a cheap $2MM agreement. He joined a bullpen lacking proven arms after the group was completely cleared out in July, with five core pieces heading out in various trades. Rogers coughed up the lead last night against New York, but he’d been solid before the outing. The veteran lefty has secured three holds and has generally been effective in high-leverage situations. Heading into Wednesday, Rogers had only been scored upon in two games, both of which were with Minnesota facing a deficit.
Josh Bell, hot streak extraordinaire
Bell will have a three-week stretch every season where he looks like an MVP candidate. It may have already happened for 2026. Bell had three hits in the final game of the sweep against the Tigers, pushing his OPS to 1.066 through 13 games. He’s cooled off from there, but it’s still a solid 116 wRC+ across 96 plate appearances. The Twins added Bell on a one-year, $7MM deal. He’s provided a nice boost to an offense that ranks in the top 10 in scoring. The Victor Caratini signing (two years, $14MM) hasn’t worked out as well, but adding a pair of veteran switch-hitters has given the lineup a bit more flexibility.
Will it matter?
This probably isn’t a roster headed toward an AL pennant run. It’s probably not even a squad equipped to end Minnesota’s three-year playoff drought. The key will be whether the Twins are competitive enough not to be sellers at the trade deadline. Ryan would be among the prizes in July, assuming Minnesota is once again open for business. Could a couple more months of .500 ball be enough to convince ownership this team can compete in an uninspiring AL Central? The early returns have been fairly positive despite a tepid offseason.
Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images
Dillon Dingler Keeps Getting Better
There was a time not too long ago where Dillon Dingler seemed to be on track to be a backup catcher. That’d have been a perfectly fine career, but it now seems he is so much more than that, which is great for him and the Tigers.
Dingler was a second-round pick of the Tigers in 2020. For most of his time in the minors, the book on him was that he had a great defensive skill set but his ceiling would be capped by a propensity for swinging and missing.
In 2022, Dingler spent the entire year at Double-A. He hit 14 home runs in 448 plate appearances and drew walks at a solid 10% clip, but his 31.9% strikeout rate was far too high high. For reference, the MLB average was 22.2% last year. The highest qualified hitter was Ryan McMahon at 32.3%. Players generally strike out more as they climb the minor league ladder and face tougher competition. With Dingler already whiffing at a high rate in Double-A, it would be natural to expect his rates to increase as he got to Triple-A and then the majors.
That season dimmed his stock a bit. Baseball America had him as the No. 4 prospect in the Tigers’ system going into 2022 but bumped him to No. 7 ahead of the 2023 season. Going into 2022, FanGraphs had Dingler at No. 4 in the system and even slotted him in as the game’s No. 108 prospect. Tthe following year, Dingler was off the Top 100, dropped to No. 7 in the system, and given a 45 FV (future value) on the 20-80 scale. The May 2024 scouting report from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen provides a good snapshot of how Dingler was viewed at that time:
“The athleticism and receiving to be a do-it-all defender behind the dish is here, and much of Dingler’s prospect variance is tied to whether his hit tool and medium-sized frame will enable him to be a primary catcher or just a luxury backup. He swings through a ton of in-zone fastballs and really struggles to get on top of anything in the upper third of the zone. There aren’t many catchers capable of punishing mistakes with power the way Dingler does, but his bat-to-ball ability is also comfortably worse than the typical hitter at that position. He shares quite a few similarities with Jake Rogers and should end up playing a lot, producing about 1.5 annual WAR in a low-end primary catching role.”
The 2023 season didn’t improve the way he was viewed. Injuries limited him to 89 games, including 26 at the Triple-A level. He punched out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and put up an ugly .202/.266/.384 line. Going into 2024, the Tigers gave him a 40-man spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, but BA knocked him down to No. 9 in the Detroit system. FanGraphs bumped him down to No. 10 and dropped his FV to 40+ (again, on the 20-80 scale).
Dingler’s 2024 was something of a mixed bag. His results at the Triple-A level were very encouraging. He took 301 trips to the plate and trimmed his strikeout rate to 20.3% — a massive improvement. His 10% walk rate was still good, and he hit 17 home runs. His .308/.379/.559 line translated to a 145 wRC+. That got some help from a .337 batting average on balls in play, but there were a lot of good signs regardless.
However, Dingler also got his first taste of the majors and delivered more worrisome results. It was a small sample size of 87 plate appearances, but his 34.5% strikeout rate was the exact kind of thing that prospect evaluators were concerned about in previous seasons. His .167/.195/.310 line was obviously unpleasant.
Last year was a breakout. An early injury to Rogers opened up some playing time, and Dingler ran with it. By the end of the year, he had appeared in 126 games. His defense received strong grades, as expected for a guy who was considered a glove-first prospect. He was credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, putting him among the top 15 catchers for that stat. FanGraphs had him as one of the game’s 10 best pitch framers. Statcast had him in the top ten in terms of framing, throwing and blocking. He won the American League Gold Glove for the catcher position.
The offense was arguably more notable, given his past reputation. Dingler’s 23.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than average but very tolerable and certainly better than his minor league work. His 4.9% walk rate was subpar, but he hit 14 home runs and slashed .278/.327/.425 for a 109 wRC+. That was juiced by a .345 BABIP but was encouraging nonetheless.
So far in 2026, he’s been even better. It’s a tiny sample of 83 plate appearances but his walk rate has moved up a bit to 6%, still well below average but an uptick nonetheless. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 16.9%. He has a .264/.346/.528 line and 145 wRC+, despite a subpar BABIP of .264. Statcast puts his average exit velocity in the 84th percentile of qualified hitters. His hard-hit rate is 96th and barrel rate 95th.
As mentioned, that is a small sample and maybe he can’t maintain it. But at this point, Dingler has 639 career plate appearances. Even with his nightmare start in 2024, he has a combined .261/.311/.421 line, 104 wRC+, 4.9% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate. That walk rate may even increase, since he usually walked about twice as much in the minors.
Maybe the strikeouts will creep back up, but there are some encouraging indicators under the hood. Dingler had a decent eye, hence the walks in the minors, but he would miss when he did decide to swing. As mentioned in the pull quote above, a big problem was him missing balls in the strike zone, not so much a problem with chasing.
His contact rate in Double-A in 2022 was 67.8%. For context, the major league average last year was 76.4%. In 2023, when he was still striking out a lot in the minors, his contact rate was 70.6%. But in 2024, he got that up above 76%, both in the majors and in the minors. He was at 77% last year and is at 78.5% so far in 2026.
It’s possible that pitchers adjust how they attack Dingler. Perhaps due to his reputation, 53.8% of the pitches he saw last year were in the strike zone. That was well above the league average of 41.9%. In the early going here in 2026, only 47.8% of pitches he has seen have been in the zone. That’s still above par but a big drop from the year before. If pitchers continue to throw him fewer strikes, he may have to adjust his approach, but he’s not a free swinger right now. His 48.5% swing rate last year was above average but barely, as the league-wide mean was 47.4%. Since he was getting attacked more, it makes sense that he would swing more. He is up to 49.5% this year, despite seeing fewer pitches in the zone, though he is still getting balls over the plate a lot.
The overall package has been valuable so far. Dingler has appeared in 174 big league games. Thanks so his contributions on both sides of the ball, FanGraphs has credited him with 5.0 wins above replacement. Dating back to the start of last year, Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers are the only backstops with more fWAR. Baseball Reference is a bit more bearish, giving him 3.9 WAR so far. Time will tell if Dingler can hold his gains on the strikeout side of things, but the defense gives him a strong floor and he can clearly put a charge in the ball when he does connect.
Dingler’s breakout is a great development for the Tigers. They are about to lose Rogers to free agency in a few months. If Dingler were a strikeout-prone backup, as expected, Detroit would have been looking for a new catcher in the coming offseason. Instead, they should be able to just roll with Dingler.
They may have to replace Rogers, but that could also be done in house. Eduardo Valencia is already on the 40-man roster and has some helium thanks to a .319/.405/.622 showing in Triple-A last year. His numbers aren’t as strong so far in 2026, currently sporting a .182/.308/.299 line, but with an unfortunate .222 BABIP. There are questions about whether he can stick behind the plate, but the Tigers are still trying. He’s been in the catcher position for 101 innings this year, compared to 53 1/3 at first base. FanGraphs currently considers him the No. 8 prospect in the system.
Dingler is controlled through 2030, so there are also long-term questions to be answered. A couple of Detroit’s top prospects are catchers. Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño are consensus top five guys in the system. Briceño is generally considered a top-100 prospect. Liranzo is already on the 40-man roster but hasn’t yet reached the Triple-A level. He spent most of 2025 at Double-A and struck out at a 31.7% rate. He was slowed by an oblique strain this spring and is only now getting ramped up. Briceño also reached Double-A last year and hit better but has more questions about his ability to stick at catcher. He recently underwent wrist surgery and is likely to miss a few months of this year. Neither of these two are knocking on the door yet but could be at some point.
Even if Briceño is ultimately pushed to first base and designated hitter, the Tigers have Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter under club control through 2028. It’s possible the Tigers will get to a point where they feel someone from that group can be traded.
Even if they don’t build up enough of a surplus to trade someone, Dingler’s development is great for the long-term spine nonetheless. Kevin McGonigle is now signed through 2034 and could be the everyday shortstop for much of that span. Max Clark is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is currently playing in Triple-A. He should be up at some point this season and could be the center fielder in Detroit through 2032.
Along with that long-term core, the Tigers have financial flexibility. Thanks to an aversion to long-term free agent contracts in recent years, their books are fairly clean. The Javier Báez deal is done after 2027. Framber Valdez is signed through 2028 but can opt out of the final year. All their other players making eight-figure salaries are slated for free agency after the current season. Pretty soon, the McGonigle and Colt Keith extensions will be the only guaranteed deals on the books, and those aren’t especially onerous.
The Tigers will probably need more pitching. Valdez can opt out after 2027. Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Justin Verlander and Casey Mize are free agents after the current season. That clean payroll outlook will give the front office space to sign guys, and as mentioned, they could also find themselves with a position player logjam that leads to a trade.
Detroit could also explore a Dingler extension if they were so inclined. He would probably be amenable to one. Catchers don’t age especially well due to the rigors of the position, which means they rarely receive big free agent deals — at least relative to other position players. J.T. Realmuto got to $115.5MM back in 2021, and he’s still the only free agent backstop to crack nine figures. That’s a big number, but dozens of infielders and outfielders have beaten that handily.
Dingler was a bit of a late bloomer, as he didn’t reach the majors until his age-25 season and didn’t break out until he was 26. His window of club control already goes through his age-31 season, meaning he would hit the open market ahead of his age-32 campaign. If the Tigers wanted to lock him up and add another year or two, it seems fair to assume he would be interested.
Extensions for catchers this early in their careers are rare. Most of the notable recent deals for catchers came when they pushed into their arbitration years. Will Smith signed his $131.5MM deal with the Dodgers when he had over four years of service time. Alejandro Kirk was also in that bucket when the Blue Jays gave him $58MM. Raleigh and Sean Murphy had between three and four years of service when they got $99.4MM and $73MM, respectively.
The one recent deal that aligns with Dingler’s current status is the eight-year $50MM deal signed by the Nationals and Keibert Ruiz. Apart from the fact that both catchers have between one and two years of service, it’s not a great comp. Ruiz hadn’t had as much success then as Dingler has now. The deal was mostly a bet on Ruiz’s prospect pedigree, which has not panned out so far. Ruiz has mostly struggled and the deal looks like an albatross. It’s safe to presume he’d top that deal by a comfortable margin.
Contract talk aside, Dingler is making the Tigers stronger now and can continue to do so for years to come. Detroit will face some challenges with none of their starters signed long-term, but the Tigers have a strong foundation on the position player side to utilize, with Dingler rapidly emerging as a key piece of that core.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Max Meyer’s Approach Is Working
Marlins right-hander Max Meyer held the Cardinals to two earned runs across 5 1/3 innings on Monday. One of those tallies came around on a Calvin Faucher wild pitch, tying the game and ruining Meyer’s chance at a win, but it was another solid outing for the young starter. Meyer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five appearances. He’s flashed the best swing-and-miss stuff of his career.
The 27-year-old Meyer has been a slider-first pitcher as a big leaguer. It remains his most-used pitch in 2026, but he’s also ramped up his sweeper usage. Meyer is relying on his breaking balls more than half the time (52.3%). The arsenal tweak has led to throwing his four-seamer at a career-low 19.8% rate. It’s a worthwhile adjustment given the pitch’s performance. Meyer’s heater had a -7 Run Value in 2024, back when he was throwing it nearly as often as his slider. He cut the usage to 22.2% last season, but it still posted a -6 Run Value.
The strikeouts finally came against St. Louis. Meyer punched out eight Cardinals, with the sweeper doing most of the damage (five Ks). He came into the outing with an excellent 13.3% swinging-strike rate, but a middling 22.7% strikeout rate. Considering his most-used pitch has a whiff rate above 50%, a better-than-league-average strikeout rate should be expected. Meyer now ranks ninth among qualified starters with a 14.4% swinging-strike rate. Only two pitchers were above 15% in 2025 (Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease).
The increased reliance on his breaking balls has pushed Meyer’s strikeout rate to a career-best 25.2%. He has a sub-4.00 ERA supported by a 3.77 xFIP and a 3.78 SIERA. Walks have been the main drawback. Meyer has issued free passes at a 9.9% clip, more than 2% above his career mark heading into the season. He walked two Cardinals on Monday, giving him multiple BBs in all but one outing. He also hit two Cardinals and uncorked a wild pitch.
Meyer hasn’t just made gains in the strikeout department. He’s also taken a step forward in terms of contact quality. The righty has a career-low 38.6% hard-hit rate. That number has never been below 44% in any of his three previous big-league seasons. Meyer has permitted an 8.6% barrel rate, which is still above league average but represents a major improvement on his 11.2% career mark.
Miami selected Meyer with the third overall pick in the 2020 draft. He was among the organization’s top prospects as recently as 2024. Injuries have kept him from consistently contributing with the big-league club. Meyer suffered an elbow sprain just two starts into his MLB tenure in 2022. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2023. Meyer returned to the big leagues for 11 starts in 2024. A shoulder injury ended his season prematurely in September. Meyer broke camp with the team last season, but a hip injury cost him the final three months of the campaign.
A healthy and effective Meyer would be a big boost to a Marlins rotation that has more young firepower on the way. Top prospect Thomas White has a silly 45.0% strikeout rate through three Triple-A starts. Robby Snelling has been just as good, with a sub-2.00 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 19 innings at Jacksonville. It’s easy to forget Eury Perez is still only 23 years old. Miami has the makings of an imposing rotation, regardless of whether they trade ace Sandy Alcantara.
Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images
The Angels May Have Found An Ace
Angels right-hander José Soriano has had a really tough journey but it seems he has arrived. He has largely stayed healthy for a few years and his results keep getting better. The timing of his breakout puts the Halos in an interesting position.
Soriano has always had good stuff. Even as a teenager, he was hitting the mid-90s with his fastball and showing good secondary stuff while pitching in Rookie ball. Still, there were questions about whether or not he could utilize that arsenal. From 2016 to 2018, he tossed 155 2/3 innings between Rookie Ball and Low-A. He did have a 2.89 earned run average but his 19.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate didn’t suggest dominance.
He missed a few more bats in 2019 but also with more walks. Then the injury odyssey began. He required Tommy John surgery in February of 2020. The pandemic canceled the minor leagues that year but Soriano was going to be rehabbing regardless.
The Pirates tried betting on his arm, selecting him with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft in November of 2020. Naturally, the hope was that he would return from his surgery and get right back on track. He began a rehab assignment in May of 2021 but that lasted only two appearances before his elbow discomfort returned. He required yet another Tommy John surgery in June. At the end of the 2021 campaign, he was returned to the Angels.
He sat out most of the 2022 season but did make seven appearances in the minors late in the year. The Angels were encouraged enough that they didn’t want to risk another Rule 5 selection, so they added him to their 40-man roster in November of that year.
The Halos used Soriano as a reliever in 2023, an understandable decision for a guy who had effectively missed the previous three years. He tossed 23 1/3 innings in the minors and another 42 in the majors, getting him to 65 1/3 for the year overall. The major league results were good, as Soriano posted a 3.64 ERA. His 12.4% walk rate was high but perhaps some rust was understandable after so much missed time. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 51% clip.
Going into 2024, the Angels could have kept him in the bullpen but decided to give starting another try. A few years later, that looks like an inspired decision. He stayed healthy in 2024 for the most part. Soriano had a brief stint on the injured list in the summer due to an abdominal infection and also landed on the IL late in the year due to some arm fatigue. However, he logged 113 innings over 22 appearances with a 3.42 ERA. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate weren’t astounding but he got grounders at a huge 59.7% pace.
Soriano’s 2025 season was even better. His only IL stint was right at the end of the season. He was struck by a comebacker and was put on the shelf on September 18th with a contusion. He made 31 starts on the year and tossed 169 frames. His 4.26 ERA wasn’t as nice as the year before but his rate stats were largely the same. He had a 21% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and a huge 65.3% ground ball rate.
Soriano’s velocity has been in the upper 90s throughout his big league career but he has thrown his sinker a lot, leading to the grounder-heavy profile. He was atop the leaderboard in that category by a decent margin, with Andre Pallante a distant second at 59.1% last year.
Here in 2026, Soriano has changed up his pitch mix and it has seemingly propelled him to a new level. He threw his sinker 49.1% of the time in 2025 but that’s down to 30.5% so far this year. That’s led to way more four-seamers. Soriano threw that pitch just 8.6% of the time last year but is up to 23.4% in 2026. To smaller degrees, he has also thrown more splitters, sliders and curveballs.
This is only four starts and 27 innings but Soriano has only allowed one earned run, giving him a tiny ERA of 0.33. Part of that is a .143 batting average on balls in play and 100% strand rate, but it’s not entirely luck. Soriano is still getting grounders at a strong 60.7% clip but with a strikeout rate that has soared to 32%. His 2.33 FIP and 2.73 SIERA suggest he would be showing huge improvement even with more neutral favor from the baseball gods.
It’s obviously tremendous for the Angels. They need several things to break right in order to compete this year, since they haven’t been good in a decade and actually cut the payroll coming into this year. That creates a need for some internal guys to step up and be nice surprises. They’re getting a tremendous bounceback from Mike Trout. Former prospect Oswald Peraza is out to a great start. Reid Detmers moving from the bullpen to the rotation is going well so far.
Time will tell if that’s enough to make the Angels legitimate contenders. They are currently 10-10. Hanging around .500 is enough to be in a playoff race these days, with the expanded postseason field. In some recent years, they have had strong starts that faded over time, as their lack of depth generally gets more exposed as a long season proceeds.
If the Angels aren’t strong contenders when July rolls around, Soriano will be an interesting theoretical trade candidate. His Rule 5 odyssey was harmless for the Angels in a sense, in that they got him back. However, he did get a year of big league service time while spending that season on the injured list. That means that despite only having pitched parts of three seasons with the Angels, he came into 2026 with his service clock at three years and 121 days. He is therefore slated for free agency after 2028.
That doesn’t mean the Angels would have to move him this summer but there would be an argument for it. A dominant pitcher with two-plus seasons of club control could get a haul. Given Soriano’s injury history, there would be sense in selling high, before another injury tanks his value.
This is an approach the Marlins have taken in recent years. They traded two-plus seasons of Trevor Rogers to the Orioles, two years of Jesús Luzardo to the Phillies, three years of Edward Cabrera to the Cubs and three years of Ryan Weathers to the Yankees. Those guys all had notable injury issues in Miami but were cashed in while the Marlins felt they were able to get good value. Those trades netted the Fish Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Owen Caissie and a bunch of prospects who are still in the minors. Their farm is now generally ranked in the top third of the league, and it’s possible they are forming a young nucleus that will have them well set up for the coming years. Along similar lines, MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz were traded for big prospect packages in the most recent offseason, by the Nationals and Rays respectively. Gore had two years of club control remaining. Baz, who has since signed an extension with his new club in Baltimore, had three.
This is a path the Angels have typically avoided. Broadly speaking, they appear to be higher on their own chances of contention than outsiders. They have avoided rebuilding and haven’t made many major moves with a long-term focus. They often use their best draft picks on older college players and then fast-track them to the majors to try to help as quickly as possible. They had many chances to trade Shohei Ohtani for a huge package of prospects but held onto him and couldn’t get to the playoffs with him. They sent out notable prospects at the 2023 deadline to get Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and others but immediately floundered and put those guys on waivers a few weeks later.
As a result, there’s not a lot of optimism about the future. Each of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic consider the Angels to have one of the four worst farm systems in the league.
If the Angels aren’t in contention this summer, there would be some sense in selling high on Soriano, Detmers, Peraza, Zach Neto, Jo Adell and others, in order to lay out a long-term path. History suggests that, if they are close this summer, they will try to ride the wave into the postseason. For the sake of their fans, it would be great if that worked out, though it has backfired on them in the past.
As mentioned earlier, Soriano’s step forward is unequivocally a good development for the Angels. The question is whether they will be able to take advantage of it. Making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 would be one way to do that. Setting themselves up for the future by building up a barren farm system would be another. The club hasn’t been able to take either of those roads in recent history. Hopefully this time is different, one way or another.
Photos courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images
Mike Trout Might Be Back
Two ninth-inning collapses by the Angels’ bullpen have overshadowed Mike Trout‘s dominant performance in the Bronx this week. The veteran outfielder has slugged home runs in all three games of the series. He has four long balls in total against the Yankees, including three in consecutive plate appearances from Monday to Tuesday. Trout’s two-run blast in the fifth inning on Wednesday gave the Angels their first lead of the contest. Closer Jordan Romano would ultimately cough it up on a walk-off double by Jose Caballero.
The power is always there for Trout. Even in a “down” 2025 season that saw the three-time MVP post his worst wRC+ since his rookie year, he still socked 26 home runs in 130 games. The home run off Luis Gil yesterday was Trout’s sixth of the season through 18 games. Last year, it only took him 11 games to reach a half dozen dingers. Trout had a .926 OPS at that point in the year. He has a .945 OPS right now.
The main difference between last season’s strong start and this year’s early results is the contact. Trout has cut his strikeout rate to 21.4%. His swinging-strike rate is down to 6.0%. Perhaps most importantly, Trout has an overall 84.4% contact rate and a 93% in-zone contact rate. Those are the best marks of his 16-year career.
It’s a small sample, of course, but those are key indicators for aging hitters as they get deeper into their careers. Getting consistently beaten in the strike zone is usually a clear sign that a hitter can no longer compete against big-league pitching. The 34-year-old Trout has the 27th-best zone contact rate among qualified hitters this season. He had the 25th-worst mark in 2025.
One option for declining veterans is to sacrifice batted-ball quality in exchange for more contact. Trout has not gone that route. His strikeout rate improvements this season have come with an absurd level of impact on the ball. He ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and expected wOBA. Trout’s 93.5 mph average exit velocity is his best as a pro, outside of the shortened 2020 season. He’s not beating the ball into the ground, either. Trout has a 69.4% air contact rate, right in line with his career mark of 66.6%. His split for that metric has leaned toward fly balls (42.9%) instead of line drives (18.4%), which could partly explain his meager .233 average on balls in play. Trout’s pop-up rate has been in line with career norms.
Trout’s opponent this week offers a pair of interesting comparisons from a career-arc perspective. Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmidt have taken two different paths as they’ve reached the tail-end of their MLB journeys, but ultimately ended up in a similar place. Trout seemed to be headed in the direction of the 36-year-old Stanton. The Yankees’ slugger delivered one of the more impactful campaigns of his recent New York tenure in 2025, crushing 24 home runs in just 281 plate appearances, but it came with a career-worst 34.2% strikeout rate. Stanton has never been an above-average contact hitter, though a 74.9% zone contact rate is a particularly low output. Rafael Devers was the only qualified hitter below 76% last year.
The 38-year-old Goldschmidt went the other direction. He pushed his contact metrics to career-best levels in New York. The first baseman struck out just 18.7% of the time, while putting the ball in play on more than 80% of his swings. The tradeoff was batted-ball quality. Goldschmidt had just a 7.9% barrel rate, his first year being in the single digits since 2016. The veteran’s 43.7% hard-hit rate was his worst mark since the shortened 2020 season. Goldschmidt got his batting average back up to .274 after it had slipped to .245 in his final year with the Cardinals, but he also managed just 10 home runs. The performance was enough for the Yankees to bring him back this year in a part-time role. Stanton also remains a semi-regular, given his defensive limitations and persistent health concerns.
Health is a factor with Trout as well. The main positive from his 2025 campaign was that he played 130 games, his most since 2019. That year happens to be the last time he brought home AL MVP honors. Trout already had an injury scare this season, though this one wasn’t exactly his fault. He missed a game in the first week of April after getting hit on the hand by a pitch. He’s been back in the lineup every game since.
After spending the majority of 2025 at DH, with the Angels hoping to keep him healthy, Trout is back in his familiar spot in center field this season. He has been around league average with the glove (1 DRS, -1 OAA). More notably from a health outlook, he ranks in the 90th percentile in sprint speed. That’s a huge improvement from last year, when he ranked in the 62nd percentile. It was his first time below the 90th percentile in the Statcast era.
A mid-30s resurgence for Trout would be a massive Angels boon not only for the obvious on-field benefits but also because a substantial portion of the team’s decreased payroll is tied up in Trout’s contract. He’s signed at $35.45MM annually through the 2030 season.
The Angels ran a payroll north of $205MM in 2025 but slashed spending in 2026. After accounting for Anthony Rendon‘s deferred/restructured contract, the Angels’ payroll is in the $150MM vicinity. If last year’s $200MM+ payroll was more of an outlier than the beginning of a new trend, it’ll be all the more critical for Trout to deliver on his contract. His current salary accounts for about 23.5% of the team’s payroll — a substantial hike from last year’s 17% mark.
For now, Trout will look to extend his homer streak against Max Fried on Thursday. It’ll be his first look at the Yankees lefty. Only one of Trout’s home runs has come against southpaws this season. From a bigger-picture vantage point, it’ll be telling to keep an eye on Trout’s contact metrics as the season progresses. He doesn’t need to continue posting career-best contact levels in order to return to true All-Star status, but the fact that he’s even been able to do so through his first 18 games — without sacrificing power — in his age-34 season is both remarkable and a sign of hope for Angels fans.
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images
Poll: Which Team Has Been Most Impacted By Injuries This Year?
Every year, teams that are widely expected to succeed at the outset of the season stumble due to injury woes. Teams that look strong on paper can often perform much less impressively if even one or two key players are removed from the mix, and even the very best teams can look vulnerable with a long enough string of tough-luck injuries. 2026 has been no exception to this so far, with several teams facing substantially tougher roads in the months ahead thanks to an early injury or three putting them on the back foot. Which team has it worst when it comes to the injury bug? Here’s a few of the leading contenders, in alphabetical order:
Atlanta Braves
One look at Atlanta’s list of injured players makes it easy to see why they’re in this conversation. The Braves’ injured starting pitchers would be a respectable starting rotation when taken together: Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Joey Wentz are all currently on the shelf. While Wentz is more of a back-end starter or swing man, the other four would all be in the conversation to start playoff games for the Braves alongside future Hall of Famer Chris Sale if they were healthy. In addition to the starting pitching woes, the Braves are without two key members of their lineup: catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Despite this deep group of talented players on the shelf, it can be argued the Braves haven’t been too impacted by those issues: they’re actually leading the NL East at the moment, and scorching hot starts from Drake Baldwin and Mauricio Dubon have helped fans to forget about the losses of Murphy and Kim.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles could be easy to overlook on a list like this given their considerable depth all over the diamond, but that depth has been tested a great deal already this year. Zach Eflin is out for the year as he faces UCL surgery, but unlike other teams on this list the rotation is the least of Baltimore’s woes. A lineup that is currently without Jordan Westburg (elbow sprain), Jackson Holliday (hamate surgery), Adley Rutschman (ankle inflammation), Tyler O’Neill (concussion), Ryan Mountcastle (foot fracture) and Heston Kjerstad (hamstring strain) has been rather resilient in the face of those many losses thanks to the team’s deep positional corps. The bullpen has not been so fortunate, as last summer’s loss of Felix Bautista has been compounded by injuries to Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge to completely upend the Orioles’ late-inning mix outside of Ryan Helsley.
Chicago Cubs
While some teams collapse under the weight of several injuries piling up, the Cubs have struggled to stomach just one major loss. Star right-hander Cade Horton looked like an up-and-coming ace with the club last year, but just two starts into what would’ve been his first season in the majors, the right-hander was sidelined for UCL surgery. That’ll leave the Cubs without their best pitcher for the entire year, all while Justin Steele is still rehabbing from his own UCL surgery last April. The loss of Horton isn’t the only injury the Cubs have faced this year, either. Seiya Suzuki missed the start of the season after getting hurt during the WBC, though he’s since returned to the lineup. Matthew Boyd is currently sidelined by an arm injury of his own, and the team’s top two bullpen additions from the offseason (Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey) have both recently gone on the injured list as well. Losing Horton might be the biggest individual blow any team has faced so far this year, though other teams surely have it worse than the Cubs when it comes to volume.
Houston Astros
The Astros have had a brutal run of injuries so far this year. Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier are both sidelined with shoulder strains. Tatsuya Imai (arm fatigue) joined them on the shelf and Cody Bolton (mid-back tightness) is also banged up. Things aren’t much better outside of the rotation. An outfield mix that was already looking thin before the season began lost its best starter in center fielder Jake Meyers to an oblique strain. The infield lost Jeremy Peña to a hamstring strain. The bullpen has also struggled badly without star closer Josh Hader, who has been sidelined by biceps tendinitis without much clarity on his timeline for a return to action. Other, smaller loses include outfielder Zach Dezenzo, lefty Bennett Sousa, and right-hander Nate Pearson. That’s on top of the continued absences of players like Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco due to surgeries underwent last season.
Toronto Blue Jays
The reigning AL champs have struggled badly with injuries all over the roster this year. The most obvious are those in the rotation, where all of Cody Ponce, Bowden Francis, Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage are currently shelved with only Yesavage likely to return any time soon. That’s left the Jays to rely on Patrick Corbin and an injured Max Scherzer in the early going. While the lineup hasn’t been quite as damaged as the rotation, there’s still been significant losses. Alejandro Kirk is in the midst of six-week absence due to thumb surgery. Anthony Santander was sidelined before the year even began by shoulder surgery. George Springer (fractured toe) and Addison Barger (sprained ankle) are facing injuries of their own. While the bullpen has remained intact, the number of injuries in the rotation and lineup have left the Jays looking very different than they would when healthy.
Other Options
Those five teams aren’t the only ones facing injury woes, of course. The Mets have an argument given that Juan Soto is probably the most impactful talent on the injured list all throughout the league at the moment, though he’ll be back in a few weeks and they lack other significant injuries. The Yankees are currently without players like Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony Volpe, but those injuries were known during the offseason and the club was able to construct their roster around them. The Dodgers’ losses of Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Blake Snell are certainly significant, but it’s hard to say they’re being impacted too much when they have the best record in baseball. The Brewers have a strong argument for this list in the event that Christian Yelich joins Quinn Priester and Jackson Chourio on the shelf, though that isn’t yet certain. The Reds have stayed healthy in the lineup and bullpen, but the losses of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are obviously a big blow to their rotation.
Which team do MLBTR readers think has been most impacted by injuries this year? Have your say in the poll below:
Which team has been most impacted by injuries in 2026?
2026-27 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: April Edition
At the end of each season, certain players will have to decide whether to stick with their current contracts or become free agents. These contract provisions are sometimes referred to as opt-outs and sometimes as player options. Despite the different terminology, they are effectively the same, with the player being the one making the call.
Naturally, the player’s health and performance leading up to the decision will impact which way the player leans. Which players have that decision looming after the 2026 campaign? MLBTR takes a look, in alphabetical order. Player ages in parentheses are for the 2027 season.
- José Berríos (33): can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM
The Blue Jays and Berríos agreed to a seven-year, $131MM extension back in November of 2021. The Jays had just acquired Berríos from the Twins a few months earlier, when he had a year and a half of club control remaining. A few months later, with that control window down to one year, they locked him up to keep him around. He could opt out of the final two seasons of the deal, giving him a chance to hit the open market after his age-31 season, when another long-term deal would still be theoretically possible.
Back then, Berríos was a front-of-rotation workhorse who could be banked on for 3-5 WAR per year. He hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts lately, making him feel more like a veteran innings-eater type. From 2022 to 2025, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate.
Even that has been undercut by some injury concerns in recent months. He finished 2025 on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and has started this year on the IL as well, again due to elbow inflammation. The issue doesn’t appear to be major and he could be back with the Jays in the near future. He would have to come back healthy and pitch really well in the next few months for this opt-out to even be a consideration.
- Bo Bichette (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, taking a $5MM buyout
Bichette’s recent trip to the open market was an interesting case. He wasn’t the first notable free agent to settle for a short-term deal, but we do know that he could have taken a more traditional long-term pact. The Phillies reportedly offered him a seven-year deal worth around $200MM. That was pretty close to the eight-year, $208MM deal that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason.
Instead, Bichette went another way. The Mets offered a much higher average annual value on a short-term deal with opt-outs after each season. Bichette can collect $42MM from the Mets for his age-28 season. If he decides to return to free agency, he can take a $5MM buyout on his way out the door, going into his age-29 season.
He would be walking away from a big salary but another $200MM deal might be out there for him if he has another typical Bichette season. Perhaps he would look to lock that in but we have already seen him opt for the bigger salary once. Maybe he would do so again. On the other hand, it’s theoretically possible he can garner better long-term offers this coming offseason. Last time, he had question marks due to his knee injury and uncertain future position. This time, it’s possible he’ll be healthy and have some proof of concept as a third baseman.
Bichette will need to turn things around to even make this a discussion, as he’s off to a .228/.262/.263 start as a Met, but that’s in a small sample size of 61 plate appearances. He has lots of time to heat up.
- Corbin Burnes (32): can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM ($44MM deferred)
Burnes was a free agent after the 2024 season and few expected him to land in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks signed him to a six-year, $210MM deal, with $64MM deferred. The deal gave Burnes the chance to opt out after two seasons, which would be his age-30 and age-31 seasons.
The deal has not worked out as hoped so far. Burnes did give the club 11 good starts last year, posting a 2.66 ERA, but then required Tommy John surgery in June. He will be on the shelf for at least half of the 2026 season, if not more.
It is theoretically possible for Burnes to beat the remaining money on his deal. Blake Snell was going into his age-32 season in 2025 when the Dodgers gave him a five-year deal worth $182MM. A couple of years prior, Jacob deGrom did better at an even older age. He was going into his age-35 season when he got a five-year, $185MM deal from the Rangers.
For Burnes to make this a conversation, he’ll probably need to come back and shove for at least a few weeks. One or two starts in September won’t do it. It’s also worth considering that Burnes seemingly turned down larger offers from other clubs because he and his family live in Scottsdale. Even if he thinks there’s a chance of slightly more money out there, he might be happy where he is.
- Kyle Freeland (34) – $17MM player option for 2027 if 170 innings pitched in 2026
Freeland and the Rockies signed a five-year, $64.5MM extension back in April of 2022. The deal runs through 2026 but Freeland can unlock a $17MM player option by getting to 170 innings pitched this year. He hasn’t done that in a while, with 2022 being the last time he hit that mark. Even a minor injury that puts Freeland on the IL for a few weeks would quickly take this off the table.
Presumably, the Rockies don’t want him to trigger this. The deal was signed under the previous front office regime. Even at the time, it was a bit of a head-scratcher. Since it has been signed Freeland’s ERA has mostly been hovering around 5.00. That’s not so bad for a pitcher who plays his home games at Coors Field but the Rockies are now rebuilding and don’t seem likely to be in contention next year.
On the other hand, even without a real eye on contention, they have considered it worthwhile to invest in making the rotation more respectable. After losing 119 games last year, the new front office invested almost $20MM to sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano. Each of those guys got $8MM or less. Deals like that are probably preferable to spending twice as much on Freeland but it’s not as though that would be back breaking. Freeland is making $16MM this year, so it would be a modest raise.
- Ryan Helsley (32) – $14MM player option
Helsley became a free agent after last year and a pillow deal seemed likely. He had been so dominant at his best but was coming off a poor platform. From 2022 to 2024, he posted a 1.83 ERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate. But in 2025, his ERA jumped up to 4.50. It was an even worse 7.20 for the Mets, who had acquired him from the Cardinals at the deadline. He only struck out 23.2% of batters faced after the deal. There was some talk that he may have been tipping his pitches, as his stuff seemed the same.
The Orioles gave him a two-year, $28MM deal, with even $14MM salaries in each season. Ideally, Helsley would return to form. That would give the O’s a lock-down closer without a lengthy commitment, while Helsley could return to free agency and get a bigger payday.
The early results are mixed. Helsley has thrown 4 1/3 innings for the O’s. His 30.4% strikeout rate is a nice uptick but he has also walked 17.4% of batters faced in that small sample. He still has lots of time but the sooner he locks in, the more it will help him in the coming offseason.
- Clay Holmes (34) – $12MM player option
Holmes spent most of his career as a reliever until he hit free agency, when he drew interest as a starter. The Mets gave him a three-year, $38MM deal and stretched him out. That deal contained an opt-out after two years. That would give Holmes a chance to return to free agency with some proof of concept as a starter, while the Mets would hope to at least get a couple of decent seasons from him.
So far, so good. Holmes is striking out fewer batters as a starter but is still getting plenty of ground balls, leading to good results on the whole. He has thrown 178 1/3 innings as a Met with a 3.38 ERA. His 18.2% strikeout rate is well below his work as a reliever, when he was usually above 25%, but Holmes has induced grounders at a 56.4% clip. He has had a bit of luck from a .273 batting average on balls in play and 75% strand rate, but his 4.09 FIP and 4.39 SIERA suggest he would be a competent back-end starter even with more neutral luck.
A decent starting pitcher can beat $12MM these days, even one in his mid-30s. In the most recent offseason, Nick Martinez got $13MM from the Rays for his age-35 season. Chris Bassitt got $18.5MM from the Orioles for his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly got two years and $40MM from the Diamondbacks starting at age-37. Adrian Houser got two years and $22MM from the Giants beginning with his age-33 campaign, even though he had to settle for a minor league deal a year prior.
Holmes hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts as Kelly or Bassitt but he was comparable to Martinez and Houser last year, with far more grounders than anyone in that group. He’s not an ace but there could be a path to something better than what will be left on his deal.
- Tatsuya Imai (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM
Imai is just making his major league debut. Coming from Japan at the end of last season, there seemed to be big divisions in how he was viewed by major league teams. Some saw him as a viable mid-rotation guy but others felt his future would be as a leverage reliever.
Some, including us, thought that a team would bet on the upside. MLBTR predicted Imai to land a six-year deal worth $150MM. It seems no club was willing to go to that length, at least not yet. Imai signed a three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros. Opt-outs after each season give him a chance to return to free agency, ideally with a track record of success as a major league starter. He is still relatively young, turning 28 in May, so he should still be able to secure a long-term deal in the future if the results are there.
It has only been two starts but the numbers have been mixed. Imai has a huge 35.1% strikeout rate but a massive 18.9% walk rate. That lack of control is one of the worries with Imai. He got his walk rate down to 7% in his final NPB season but was above 11% from 2019 to 2023. Beating two years and $36MM would be easy if he’s a 29-year-old mid-rotation starter but he will probably stay if he doesn’t quite cement himself or gets pushed to the bullpen.
- Michael King (32) – can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout
Not too long ago, King looked to be on his way to a nine-figure deal. He got a rotation chance with the Yankees late in 2023 and made the most of it. The Padres acquired him and put him into their starting group. King responded with an excellent 2024. He kept that going into 2025 until some injury issues popped up. From August 24th of 2023 until May 18th of 2025, King tossed 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs credits him with 6.7 WAR for that span. The only six pitchers ahead of him on that leaderboard are Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Dylan Cease.
But King wasn’t able to carry that all the way into free agency. A pinched nerve in his shoulder sent him to the IL for a while. He returned but then quickly went back on the IL with left knee inflammation. He made a few starts in September but wasn’t as dominant as before.
Due to that unimpressive finish, he seemed likely to get a short-term deal with opt-outs, and that indeed came to pass. The Friars brought him back with a three-year deal worth $75MM. It’s a bit backloaded, a team preference since the Padres have been working with some payroll restrictions. King gets a $12MM signing bonus, $4MM annually, but he’ll get all of that even if he opts out. It’s a $5MM salary in the first season and then a $5MM buyout if he walks. Then there’s a $28MM salary in 2027 and $30MM for the final season.
He can easily beat that if he’s back in top form. As mentioned, he was pitching like an ace a year ago and was on a path to something well over $100MM. Even with the injuries, he almost got to nine figures. Through three starts, he has a 3.24 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate aren’t amazing but it’s a very small sample size.
- Yuki Matsui (31) – can opt out of remaining two years, $13.5MM
After years working as a closer in Japan, Matsui came over to North America ahead of the 2024 season. The Padres signed him to a five-year, $28MM deal. That pact allowed him to opt out after three years, as long as he didn’t have a major injury in the first two.
Matsui stayed healthy and has generally given the Padres solid relief work. He made more than 60 appearances and logged more than 60 innings in both 2024 and 2025. On the whole, he has a 3.86 ERA in 126 innings thus far. However, his 11.3% walk rate is high and his 24.6% strikeout rate is only about two ticks above average for a reliever. He hasn’t really been in a leverage role, with just one save and 12 holds. He began the 2026 season on the IL with a groin strain.
Two years and $13.5MM isn’t a massive amount of money in baseball terms but Matsui won’t beat that if he’s a low-leverage reliever. Those types of guys usually get one-year deals worth a few million. He would have another chance to opt out after 2027.
- Emilio Pagán (36) – $10MM player option
Pagán’s profile is well known at this point. He gets a lot of strikeouts but also allows lots of home runs. That leads to big swings in his ERA, depending on how many fly balls are leaving the yard. He had a 4.43 ERA with the Twins in 2022, then dropped that to 2.99 in 2023. The Reds signed him to a two-year deal with an opt-out. His ERA spiked to 4.50 in the first season and he decided to stay. He then had a 2.88 ERA in 2025.
He returned to free agency and the Reds re-signed him to basically the same deal as before. The first was $16MM over two years. The second deal gave him a slight bump to $20MM. Pagán has already allowed two home runs through 7 1/3 innings this year, leading to a 6.14 ERA. This one literally depends on which way the winds will be blowing this summer.
- Wandy Peralta (35) – $4.45MM player option
Peralta got a four-year, $16.5MM deal from the Padres going into 2024, with the final three seasons all being player options. That was a surprise at the time but the Friars like deals like this, seemingly because of their financial situation. The extra years lower the average annual value and therefore the hit to the competitive balance tax. If the player has a good season and opts out, that’s a loss to the roster but the Padres get him off the books.
With Peralta, he has mostly been a ground ball specialist in his career, getting opponents to pound the ball into the dirt at a 53.8% clip. His 19.1% strikeout rate is below average but he’s still been able to have some good seasons. His first two campaigns in San Diego were fine but weren’t enough for him to trigger either of his first two opt-out chances. He had a 3.99 ERA in 2024 and a 3.14 ERA last year. He has a 3.60 ERA in the early going in 2026.
$4.45MM isn’t a ton of money but veteran relievers can sometimes get squeezed. Andrew Chafin keeps having to settle for minor league deals, for instance. Peralta should probably just stick with San Diego for 2027 unless he has a surprisingly dominant season.
- Nick Pivetta (34) – can opt out of remaining two years and $32MM
The Padres signed Pivetta to a four-year, $55MM deal ahead of the 2025 season. Due to San Diego’s aforementioned payroll crunch, they backloaded the money. Pivetta got a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2025. He is making $19MM this year, followed by two player options worth $14MM and $18MM. The 2027 option becomes a club option if Pivetta misses 130 days for a major injury.
The first season of the deal was the best of Pivetta’s career. He took the ball 31 times and posted a 2.87 ERA, though that may have been a bit fluky. His strikeout and walk rates held fairly steady compared to prior seasons. He went into 2025 with a 15.5% home run to fly ball rate but only 9.7% of his fly balls went over the fence last year. If his home run rates revert back to previous levels, his ERA would likely jump back to his usual range of the low 4.00s.
Two years and $32MM is beatable as a decent 34-year-old. Sonny Gray and Nathan Eovaldi both got three-year deals worth $75MM in recent years. Eovaldi was actually one year older, going into his age-35 campaign. Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Blue Jays a few years back. Yusei Kikuchi got the same deal from the Angels. As previously mentioned, Kelly got $40MM over two years going into his age-37 season.
- Luis Severino (33) – $22MM player option
Severino signed a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics ahead of 2025. The A’s were desperate for pitching. Luring big leaguers there was going to be tough since they were going to be playing in a minor league park from 2025 to 2027. They also needed to spend a bit more to avoid putting their status as a revenue sharing recipient at risk. The Severino deal surpassed expectations and the industry consensus is that the A’s realized they had to overpay someone.
Though Severino accepted that job and has 67 million reasons to feel good about it, he also has a few reasons to feel annoyed and went public with those. It’s possible he’s eager to move on and maybe the opt-out was put into the contract so that he would have the ability to do so.
Last year’s results weren’t amazing, as he posted a 4.54 ERA. The minor league park played as hitter-friendly and may have hurt him, as he had a 6.01 ERA there compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. However, that road ERA was helped by a tiny .249 BABIP. He only struck out 17% of batters faced in away games, so it’s not as though he was dominating. His 4.34 home FIP and 3.87 road FIP were much closer than the ERA splits.
Unless he really dominates in 2026, sticking with the A’s may be best financial decision. In the most recent offseason, decent starters got less than the $22MM Severino would be turning down. Zac Gallen got $22.025MM but with deferrals that knocked the net present value below $19MM. As mentioned, Houser got $22MM on a two-year deal. Steven Matz got $15MM over two. Bassitt got $18.5MM, Martinez got $13MM and Dustin May got $12.5MM via one-year deals. His 2026 results will play a role but his desire to get out of that minor league park may also be a factor.
Photo courtesy of D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images