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Remembering The No. 1 Picks: 2000-09

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We previously assessed the No. 1 overall draft picks of the 1990s. Let’s now take a look at how the top selections from the next decade turned out…

2000 – Adrian Gonzalez, Marlins:

  • If you go by career accomplishments, this was an excellent pick. Gonzalez lasted in the majors from 2004-18, batted .287/.358/.485 with 317 home runs and 36.4 fWAR, and was a five-time All-Star. The problem for the Marlins is that the first baseman never donned their uniform. They traded Gonzalez to the Rangers in a deal for reliever Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal didn’t aid the Marlins over the long haul, but at least Urbina was part of their most recent World Series winner and playoff team that year.

2001 – Joe Mauer, Twins:

  • Well played, Twins. The former catcher/first baseman, a Saint Paul native, is now a legendary Twin and possible Hall of Famer who played solely with the club from 2004-18 and slashed .306/.388/.439 with 143 homers and 52.5 fWAR. Mauer made six All-Star trips, won three batting titles and earned an AL MVP along the way. The eight-year, $184MM extension he signed with the Twins in 2010 remains the largest contract in franchise history.

2002 – Bryan Bullington, Pirates:

  • While the Gonzalez and Mauer picks panned out, this one couldn’t have gone much worse. The right-handed Bullington combined for just 18 1/3 innings of 5.89 ERA ball with the Pirates in 2005 and ’07. He later spent time with the Indians, Royals and Blue Jays, and after failing to make his mark with those teams, Bullington established himself as an effective starter in Japan from 2011-15. He hasn’t pitched professionally since then. Painful reminder for the Pirates: Zack Greinke went five picks after Bullington.

2003 – Delmon Young, Rays:

  • The effects of this pick continue to be felt today. While Young didn’t last long as a member of the Rays, with whom he played from 2006-07, they’re still benefiting from this selection. Tampa Bay traded Young to the Twins in a deal that netted them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, who were quite successful as Rays. They later sent Garza to the Cubs in 2011 for a package that included Chris Archer, whom they dealt to the Pirates seven years after that for now-cornerstones Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Young, meanwhile, was a below-average big leaguer. He played for a few teams through 2015 and accounted for minus-1.3 fWAR.

2004 – Matt Bush, Padres:

  • A disaster for the Padres, as they passed on No. 2 pick Justin Verlander and never got a single contribution from Bush, who has run into serious legal troubles during his career. The Padres designated the then-shortstop for assignment five years after choosing him. However, Bush did get on track and reinvent himself as a reliever with the Rangers from 2016-18. He’s still a member of the Texas organization, but he missed last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

2005 – Justin Upton, Diamondbacks:

  • Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce were among the top 12 picks in that year’s draft. All eight of those players went on to make at least one All-Star team (four in Upton’s case). Formerly a shortstop, Upton became a productive outfielder in Arizona from 2007-12, but the team dealt him to the Braves in a January 2013 blockbuster. Upton’s now a member of the Angels after also spending time with the Padres and Tigers. The 32-year-old’s a lifetime .266/.347/.476 hitter with 298 homers, 147 steals and 36.8 fWAR. You can’t argue with those results.

2006 – Luke Hochevar, Royals:

  • Evan Longoria (No. 3), Andrew Miller (No. 6), Clayton Kershaw (No. 7), Tim Lincecum (No. 10) and Max Scherzer (No. 11) were some of the other highest picks in that draft. Hochevar paled in comparison to each of them, but after several rough seasons as a starter, the righty did become a solid reliever toward the end of his career. He was even part of the Royals’ amazing World Series-winning bullpen in 2015, ending up as the victorious pitcher in the Fall Classic-deciding Game 5 against the Mets.  Hochevar pitched for just one more season after that, though, and thoracic outlet syndrome surgery helped lead to his retirement in 2018.

2007 – David Price, Rays:

  • The Rays definitely got this one right. Price was tremendous in their uniform from 2008-14, a span in which he made four All-Star teams and won an AL Cy Young Award. The club later traded him to the Tigers in a deal that’s still helping out the Rays to some degree. Price, now a Dodger, went on to pitch for Toronto and Boston after his short-lived Tigers tenure. He won a World Series as a member of the Red Sox in 2018, the third season of a seven-year, $217MM contract. Back when Price signed that deal, it was a record pact for a pitcher.

2008 – Tim Beckham, Rays:

  • You can’t win ’em all. Two picks before the Royals grabbed Eric Hosmer and four prior to the Giants’ selection of Buster Posey, the Rays made the mistake of going with Beckham, who hasn’t made much of an impact in the majors. The Rays ultimately cut ties with Beckham when they traded him to the Orioles for minor league pitcher Tobias Myers in 2017. Beckham spent last year with the Mariners, but he’s now a free agent after earning an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs late in 2019. He’s a career .249/.302/.431 hitter who has totaled an unimpressive 4.3 fWAR thus far.

2009 – Stephen Strasburg, Nationals [RELATED: The Nats’ Amazing Run Of First-Rounders]:

  • Clearly one of the biggest success stories on this list, Strasburg debuted with great fanfare in 2010, striking out 14 Pirates in his initial start. There have been some injury troubles since then, but Strasburg, 31, has consistently performed like a front-end starter when healthy. And Strasburg was so good during the Nationals’ first-ever run to a championship last fall that he earned World Series MVP honors. The Nats then awarded him with a franchise-record seven-year, $245MM contract to prevent him from exiting via free agency. Regardless of how Strasburg performs from here, he’ll be considered one of the most important players in team history.

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This is a hit-and-miss group. Five players became major league standouts, while the other half disappointed. Who’s the best of the bunch? It’s hard to go against Strasburg in the wake of his playoff heroics, but Gonzalez and Mauer had outstanding careers, and Upton and Price have been far above average as well.

The Padres’ Under-The-Radar Star

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There may not be many who realize it, but the Padres’ Tommy Pham has been one of the most productive outfielders in baseball over the past few years. Compared to most other major league standouts, Pham came from humble draft beginnings as a 16th-round pick in 2006, and it took him several years to put up notable production in the minors. From his draft year through 2009, Pham’s OPS sat below .700, but his numbers trended upward thereafter, and he finally earned his first MLB look in 2014 with the Cardinals, who drafted him.

While Pham only played in six games and totaled a mere two plate appearances the year St. Louis promoted him, he represented a solid bench piece with the club from 2015-16, during which he slashed .247/.335/.458 (115 wRC+) in 356 PA. Any team would sign up for that type of offensive production from a reserve player, but Pham has demonstrated since then that he’s a bona fide starter – not a backup.

Pham’s breakout began in 2017, a season in which he batted .306/.411/.520 with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 530 PA. Although Pham ended the year eighth in the majors in wRC+ (149) and 10th in fWAR (6.2), it proved to be his only full season as a starter in St. Louis.

Pham got off to an underwhelming start in 2018, when he owned a .730 OPS through July, and the Cardinals sent him and $500K in international bonus money to the Rays at the deadline in exchange for outfielder  Justin Williams, left-hander Genesis Cabrera and right-hander Roel Ramirez. The Cardinals haven’t really profited from that swap at the MLB level, at least not yet, but it went swimmingly for the Rays. Pham was terrific in Tampa Bay from 2018-19, when he totaled 828 PA and led all their position players in fWAR (5.9), hitting .287/.385/.485 (136 wRC+) with 28 homers and 30 steals.

You’d think the Rays would have regarded Pham as a keeper after his first season-plus in their uniform, but considering he’s 32, on a $7.9MM salary this season and only controllable for one more year after that, the budget-conscious franchise flipped him over the winter. The Rays wound up sending Pham to the Padres in a December 2019 deal centering on him and the powerful Hunter Renfroe, a fellow outfielder. Pham is flat-out better than Renfroe, but the latter’s 28, on a $3.3MM salary this year and under wraps through 2023, so you can see his appeal from the Rays’ standpoint.

So what did the Padres get in Pham? A batter who has been far superior to most offensive players since he busted out in 2017. Going back to then, here’s where Pham ranks in a few important categories…

Not only can Pham hit, but he’s a respectable outfielder – someone who has lined up at all three spots in the grass during his career and accounted for nine Defensive Runs and a 6.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 4,000 innings. By all indications, the Padres have a gem on their hands in Pham. The question now is how much they’ll benefit from his presence in 2020, when the coronavirus will lead to a shortened campaign or perhaps no season at all.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining The Red Sox’ Potential Trade Chips

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As we noted earlier today, the potential 2020 season will bring a host of new rules governing player transactions. We haven’t heard anything yet regarding how that’ll take place. But supposing there’s an opportunity at some point to strike trades, it’s quite likely that non-contending teams will be as anxious as ever to make deals.

But wait … are the Red Sox a contending team? Obviously they aren’t going all out, having just traded one of the game’s very best players in Mookie Betts along with high-priced veteran David Price. The team may maintain that wasn’t driven exclusively by luxury tax considerations, but there’s no way to sell it as enhancing the team’s 2020 outlook. And the club did manage to dip just under the luxury line — making it all the more important that the season end up being played, so that the anticipated competitive balance tax rate reset isn’t wiped out.

At the time, we might’ve wondered whether a first half boom could’ve led the Red Sox to turn into a mid-season 2020 buyer. It would’ve been hard to sell away from a winning club, at least. But then came the whole global pandemic thing, which halted any thoughts of a typical season and trade deadline. And in the midst of that the club lost its most talented pitcher when Chris Sale went under the knife for Tommy John surgery.

The Boston organization still projects as an above-average team. And the odds of a surprise would increase in a short-season format with an expanded postseason. But you have to recognize that the American League is extremely top-heavy. On paper, the Sox are no match at all for the best clubs.

Meanwhile, new Red Sox baseball ops leader Chaim Bloom has already pulled the band aid off when it comes to trading veterans. He’s looking to 2021 and beyond and the fan base knows it. None of them are deciding whether to show up for games this season anyway. Under the circumstances, the Boston organization should be pretty motivated to trade short-term veterans for whatever long-term value it can get. With every team facing renewed and unexpected future financial concerns, there could be some wild opportunities out there.

If and when Bloom returns to the trading floor, he won’t have a Betts to work with. It’s quite unlikely he’ll seriously entertain talks for long-term core player such as Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. It’s not likely the team will be keen to discuss Andrew Benintendi and Christian Vazquez given that each has multiple seasons of affordable control remaining. Even younger players like Alex Verdugo and Michael Chavis surely aren’t going anywhere.

But Bloom sure has a lot of other guys that would be worth talking about …

  • Brandon Workman, RP: In retrospect, it’s surprising there wasn’t more talk of Workman in the offseason. He ran up over seventy frames of sub-2 ERA ball last year with big strikeout and groundball numbers. And he was approximately the only pitcher in baseball that seemed immune to the long ball, though walks remain a concern. With only a $3.5MM salary, Workman is a really nice target for the many teams that will be looking to compete as hoped without adding financial obligations.
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: The salary considerations go in the opposite direction here, as Bradley’s $11MM walk-year payout isn’t very friendly to the pocketbooks. He’s not likely to be a sought-after player unless he really makes a rebound at the plate. But he has shown that ability before and is a quality up-the-middle defender.
  • Kevin Pillar, OF & Mitch Moreland, 1B: These veterans are both going to have to show what they’ve got on the field before any other teams take a look. But each could be a mid-season rental target.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: Perhaps the most valuable potential Red Sox trade target that could realistically be shopped, the quality southpaw only just reached his 27th birthday after a productive and healthy 2019 season. He’s due a reasonable $8.3MM (on a full season basis) with one more arb year to go, so the Red Sox will probably intend to hang onto him for 2021 … though their plans could probably be changed with the right offer.
  • Matt Barnes, RP: He keeps producing monster strikeout numbers with good but not great results, due in part to some free pass proclivities. There’d be a ton of interest if the Red Sox make him available, but as with Rodriguez, there’s little reason for the team to sell short. Barnes is earning a full-season $3.1MM salary in 2020 with another pass through arbitration to come thereafter.
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: Might there be added interest with a temporary National League DH? That’d be a risky strategy since the designated hitter could disappear in 2021, particularly given Martinez’s significant post-2020 obligations ($19.375MM apiece in 2021 and 2022). The slugger’s now less likely than ever to opt out of the remainder of his deal.
  • Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez & Collin McHugh, SPs: None of these hurlers would be moved at the moment, but perhaps that could change if mid-season trades are possible. The former is owed a lot of coin, but could conceivably be swapped in the right circumstances — if he returns to form. The latter two are buy-low free agent signees who’d be possible deadline flips in a normal year. Perez does come with a 2021 option.

The Nats’ Amazing Run Of First Round Draft Picks

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Let’s start with the obvious: it was easy for the Nationals to select Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper with the first overall picks of the 2009 and 2010 drafts, respectively. And the team was quite fortunate that its low point in the standings coincided with the appearance of two slam-dunk talents.

But that doesn’t mean it was easy for new GM Mike Rizzo to get those two Scott Boras clients under contract. Both went down to the wire. Strasburg finally agreed to terms after talk of $50MM demands. Harper, who was chosen the day before Strasburg’s memorable MLB debut, also waited until just before midnight on deadline day to get his deal done. Both commanded record-setting numbers.

The trick there was less one of talent evaluation than of relationship management and negotiating prowess. Tamping down the costs, ensuring the players came into the organization, and avoiding any long-term tensions were the priorities. Mission accomplished.

But that’s not the extent of the Nats’ remarkable run of first-round success. Let’s consider the organization’s entire stretch of selections between 2009 and 2012. By that point, the team was enjoying enough success on the field that it punted its ensuing first-rounder through the qualifying offer system.

Every single one of those players reached the majors for at least three seasons, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. More importantly, those drafts have collectively produced four players that have turned in one or more superstar-level campaigns. While all the selections haven’t all shaken out quite as hoped, and the Nats have cashed some in via trade, the net is remarkable.

  • Strasburg: 3x All-Star, 3x top-10 Cy Young voting, 32.3 rWAR
  • Storen: 334 innings, 3.02 ERA, 95 saves, 5.2 rWAR
  • Harper: 6x All-Star, 2015 MVP, 27.5 rWAR
  • Rendon: 1x All-Star, 4x top-10 MVP voting, 29.1 rWAR
  • Meyer: considered a top prospect when he was traded for Denard Span; career derailed by injury
  • Goodwin: traded away after marginal contributions in D.C.; 2.2 rWAR in 2019 with Angels
  • Giolito: 2019 All-Star, 6th in Cy Young voting; traded (with Reynaldo Lopez and 2016 first-round pick Dane Dunning) for Adam Eaton

Obviously, the bulk of the benefit to the Nats comes from the major stars that spent all of their arbitration-eligible seasons in D.C. Though Rendon has followed Harper in bolting for other teams via free agency, the Nationals enjoyed many cost-efficient prime years.

Then there’s Giolito, the one that got away — sort of. It’s easy to fixate on the fact that Eaton hasn’t been as productive as hoped, due in no small part to injury. But he has been a useful player and was quite valuable at the time of the swap due to his consistent productivity and highly affordable contract. The return on the 16th overall draft selection used to nab Giolito was quite good, all things considered. That’s bolstered by the fact that Giolito has now finally emerged as a star with the White Sox.

What of the others? Well, if you could go back in time, you might just take a chance on a different player from that 2009 draft class rather than grabbing Storen. But the collegiate closer did deliver more or less what was asked of him, running quickly to the majors and providing years of good service at the back end of the Nats’ bullpen — albeit on quite the roller-coaster ride — before he was swapped out in a deal that didn’t turn out for either team.

The Meyer trade worked out swimmingly. He had developed into a quality, near-majors prospect at the time, allowing the Nats to turn him into what became three highly productive seasons from Span. The center fielder contributed 8.4 rWAR during his time in the nation’s capital. Meyer seemed poised to realize some of his potential before longstanding injury concerns finally got him for good and forced an early retirement.

Goodwin is by some measures the biggest disappointment, but it’s generally hard to expect too much from a sandwich-round selection. He provided some useful action to the Nats for a while but never locked down a real opportunity in D.C. But Goodwin was and remains at least a useful fourth outfielder type. Last year, he turned in 458 plate appearances of .262/.326/.470 hitting with the Angels. It’s still possible he’ll end up turning in more significant contributions in the years to come, though they won’t redound to the Nationals’ benefit.

What of the next several seasons after sitting out that 2013 draft? Well, Erick Fedde was tabbed by some as a Giolito-like mid-round steal who fell due to health concerns. He has reached the bigs and remains a factor but hasn’t yet fully established himself. Dunning, shipped out with Giolito, has big talent but is also dealing with health woes. That was still a strong pick, as was fellow 2016 first-rounder Carter Kieboom, who is viewed as one of the game’s best overall prospects. More recently, the Nats selected hurlers Seth Romero and Mason Denaburg, who feature among top ten org prospects.

It doesn’t seem remotely likely that the latest run of selections will have anything close to the impact of the 2009-12 crop. But Rizzo and co. were working with much loftier draft selections in those days. And they set an impossibly high standard, even accounting for the advantages of the early selections. Any way you cut it, the Nats secured value exceeding 100 wins above replacement — whether directly or as acquired by trade — in those four years of first-round drafts.

The O’s Intriguing Short-Season Trade Chip

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With MLB set to propose a half-season of 2020 baseball, followed by an expanded postseason, we could be on the verge of a campaign unlike any other. There’ll be one-off rules on a whole host of topics, among them the player transactions that take place before and during the season.

While we don’t yet know when and how players will be shuttled between rosters, we have a pretty clear picture of the competitive picture that awaits. This is going to be a sprint in which every game counts. Limping through the truncated regular season could leave a talented team outside the playoff picture, or in it but in a disadvantaged position. And the broadened postseason tourney will likewise enhance the importance of winning high-leverage situations.

For teams that are built to compete right now, there’s an opportunity to salvage something out of a season that’s already sure to be a promotional and financial disappointment. While everyone will be watching the bottom line and thinking about sustainability and cost-efficiency, now more than ever, it’s also going to be harder than ever to take a wait-and-see at the trade deadline approach to roster management.

There are loads of potential consequences here for every team. We’ll surely be exploring many of them as the situation gains clarity. The one highlighted here is far from the most important, but it’s indicative of the sort of shifts in the trade marketplace we might see.

In many respects, Orioles reliever Mychal Givens is the perfect trade candidate. Let us count the ways.

Most rebuilding teams have already dealt away their most obvious veteran trade pieces. But the Baltimore organization hadn’t received sufficiently enticing offers on Givens and didn’t feel compelled to move him just yet with one more season of arbitration control remaining. The idea, no doubt, was to let him (hopefully) mow down hitters over the first half of 2020 before cashing him in at the trade deadline. Contenders would feel justified in giving up more value since they’d control him for 2021.

Now, that plan has run into some difficulties … but also some added opportunity. We don’t know if there’ll be a typical trade deadline, but even if there is, it won’t involve a slow build-up that Orioles GM Mike Elias can use to develop scenarios surrounding Givens.

On the other hand, the short-season burst will leave contenders hunting for replacements without the luxury of watching a lot of 2020 baseball. The focus will be on physical tools as demonstrated most recently, results be damned. Teams typically have more than 82 games to witness repeat testing of players before making deadline decisions. By that point, the season will be over. Teams that want to improve mid-season will have to simply imagine what is possible.

It’s reasonable to expect Givens to fare well in this analysis, whether he’s discussed in trades before or during the season. He looks the part of a monster on the mound, consistently averaging over 95 mph with his fastball in every season of his career. Ramping up the use of his change-up to equal status with his slider, and pairing it with that heater, enabled Givens to jump to a hefty 15.8% swinging-strike rate and 12.3 K/9 in 2019. True, he also coughed up 1.86 homers per nine innings, but it’s not hard to imagine that number moving back towards his career mean (0.95 per nine), especially once he’s removed from Camden Yards and the AL East. If you’re a team that routinely re-envisions how your pitchers use their arsenals, there’s no better raw material to work with.

And that also brings us back around to the point we started with: the importance of leverage. Locking up winnable games, both during the regular season and through the postseason, is going to be key. The O’s know this better than anyone, having benefited from several campaigns in which they thrived in one-run contests. Even a talented team with good health and generally good performance can experience rather significant swings in actual victories based upon just a few moments in certain close contests. And that’s all the more true in knockout rounds of the playoffs.

Givens becomes quite an appealing weapon under these parameters. He has been a workhorse, averaging over seventy frames annually over his four full seasons in the majors. More than ever, an acquiring team could envision a significant impact on its fortunes from inserting a pitcher with this skillset into its relief corps.

Further greasing the wheels here is a favorable contract situation. As noted, Givens is controlled for 2021. His salary this season is only $3.225MM and can only move northward by so much through the arbitration process. As clubs think ahead to building a winner in lean economic times, this is precisely the sort of asset they’ll wish to have.

It remains all but entirely unknown how the transactional landscape will develop. But so long as some player movement is permitted, I’m guessing that Givens will be one of the most-discussed and most-watched players as MLB’s 2020 season relaunches.

From Waiver Fodder To MLB Regular?

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If you’re a hitter who records a wRC+ of 150 during a season, it means you were absolutely tremendous and 50 percent better than the average offensive player. The Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte finished with exactly that number last season, and as most who follow baseball know, he was a contender for National League Most Valuable Player honors. Shifting to the AL, the Orioles essentially had their own offensive version of Marte, at least against left-handed pitchers. While facing southpaws, little-known infielder Hanser Alberto batted an eyebrow-raising .398/.414/.534 in 227 plate appearances. Only J.D. Martinez (.404) bettered the right-handed Alberto’s average versus lefties, while just 18 batters defeated his 151 wRC+ against them.

Alberto’s ownership of southpaws was a rare bright spot during a 54-win campaign for the Orioles, and no one could have expected it after he was passed around so much during the previous offseason. The Rangers, with whom Alberto appeared in the majors from 2015-16 and again in 2018, designated Alberto for assignment and he left the organization when the Yankees claimed him on waivers in November 2018. He never suited up for the Yankees, though, as they lost him to the Orioles via waivers in January 2019. That was not the end of a busy offseason for Alberto, whom the Giants picked up on waivers in February before the Orioles claimed him yet again in March.

You have to give credit to the 27-year-old Alberto for persevering through a whirlwind of transactions and emerging as one of the O’s most productive players a season ago. The question now is whether Baltimore has a keeper or at least a valuable trade chip in Alberto.

First of all, the fact that Alberto thrashed lefties last year isn’t the only positive. He’s also versatile enough to play multiple infield positions (second and third) and under affordable control via arbitration through 2022. Problem is that it’s hard to envision Alberto sustaining his 2019 production. Prior to then, he was just a .192/.210/.231 hitter with zero home runs in 192 major league plate appearances. That doesn’t mean the light bulb couldn’t have gone on – Alberto was a solid .309/.330/.438 batter over 1,000 Triple-A attempts before last season – but it appears there was a substantial amount of luck lifting him up during his first year in Baltimore.

Alberto concluded last season with an overall line of .305/.329/.422 (96 wRC+) and 12 dingers and 1.9 fWAR in 550 PA. He also led the league in strikeout percentage (9.1) and came in 10th in contact percentage (86.5). Looks like good news, but was it impactful contact? Not really. According to FanGraphs, Alberto ranked dead last among 135 qualified hitters in hard-contact percentage (24.6). Statcast also wasn’t enthralled, ranking Alberto in the bottom 1 percent of the majors in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and walk percentage. Alberto did place in the game’s 88th percentile in expected batting average (.290), but even that looks as if it will be difficult to maintain. Just about all of his damage came off southpaws (righties held him to an awful 57 wRC+), but he posted a .435 batting average on balls in play against them that you can’t reasonably expect to carry over.

While Alberto’s bottom-line production versus lefties was otherworldly last year, chances are that it won’t continue. But even if it doesn’t, you can’t criticize Baltimore in this case. The team has already gotten far more value from Alberto than it could have realistically anticipated when it added him to its roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Seattle Signing That Didn’t Work Out In 2019

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Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi entered the majors with quite a bit of fanfare heading into the 2019 season. At that point, Kikuchi was coming off a terrific eight-year tenure as a member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions, with whom he posted a 2.77 ERA and put up 8.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 across 1,010 2/3 innings. Kikuchi parlayed that run into a high-paying contract with the Mariners, who signed him to a four-year, $56MM guarantee. It’s an unusual deal – one that could keep him in Seattle for as few as three years and as many as seven, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams explained at the time.

For now, the Mariners may be disappointed in their investment. Kikuchi struggled mightily during his first major league season, and there don’t seem to be many clear reasons to expect a turnaround. Starting with some optimism, it’s nice that Kikuchi amassed 161 2/3 innings, approaching the career-high 163 2/3 he accrued during an NPB season. But while Kikuchi ranked a respectable 59th in innings last year, he wasn’t very productive otherwise.

Among 70 pitchers who threw at least 150 frames, Kikuchi ranked last in FIP (5.71) and home runs per nine (2.00), second from the bottom in ERA (5.46) and 10th last in K/BB ratio (2.32; 6.46 K/9 against 2.78 BB/9). And the 28-year-old wasn’t effective against either lefties or righties. Same-handed hitters recorded a .340 weighted on-base average against him, meaning Kikuchi essentially turned lefties into the 2019 version of Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager. Righties, meanwhile, averaged a lofty .374 mark – the same number Astros second baseman Jose Altuve registered during the season.

So why was Year 1 such a disaster for Kikuchi? Well, as you’d expect, none of his pitches graded out well. According to Statcast, Kikuchi mostly relied on a four-seam fastball (49 percent), a slider (28 percent) and a curveball (15 percent). FanGraphs ranked all of those offerings among the worst of their kind, making it no surprise that so many hitters teed off on him. With that in mind, it’s hardly a shock that Kikuchi ranked toward the basement of the majors in a slew of important Statcast categories, finishing in the league’s 35th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected ERA and expected wOBA, to name a few.

Had Kikuchi gotten off to a slow start and then made a late charge, it would be easier to have some hope going into this season. It was essentially the opposite, though, as Kikuchi owned a passable 4.37 ERA/4.51 FIP through April and then went in the tank from there. His monthly FIP only dipped below 5.00 once after the season’s first month, and it exceeded the 6.00 mark overall after the All-Star break.

In terms of performance from a hyped pitcher, it’s tough to make a much worse first impression than Kikuchi’s from 2019. That doesn’t mean he’ll never amount to anything in the majors – you have to sympathize with someone trying to adjust to a new country and the best baseball league in the world, after all. However, it’s not easy to find encouraging signs from Kikuchi’s first year in the majors, which is not what the rebuilding, long-suffering Mariners had in mind when they took a gamble on him in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Grading Jason Heyward’s Career (So Far)

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It would be an understatement to say the Cubs’ Jason Heyward has had an eventful career in professional baseball. Heyward was the 14th pick of the Braves in the 2007 draft, and the Georgia-raised outfielder’s star continued to rise thereafter. As a prospect, Heyward topped out as Baseball America’s No. 1 overall farmhand after the 2009 season.

“Even if he opens 2010 at Triple-A Gwinnett, Heyward will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the year, and he has all the ability to emerge as one of the game’s premier players,” BA wrote then.

The towering Heyward did not start 2010 in the minors, though, instead beginning as the Braves’ top right fielder. And he made an enormous impact from the get-go, smashing a first-inning, three-run homer off Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano in his initial at-bat. The Braves went on to win that game and 90 more en route to a wild-card berth, owing in no small part to a 4.6-fWAR Heyward effort in which he batted .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances.

It seemed that the rookie version of Heyward was indeed destined for greatness, but his career hasn’t been particularly consistent since then. Heyward remained a Brave from 2011-14, a 2,196-plate appearance run in which he batted .258/.340/.422 with 14.9 fWAR, but they decided after the last of those seasons to trade the homegrown standout to the Cardinals in a deal for right-hander Shelby Miller. That wasn’t indefensible from the Braves’ point of view, as Miller was then an up-and-coming starter with a few years’ team control remaining and Heyward had just one season left before reaching free agency.

[RELATED: Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing]

If you go by fWAR, Heyward had his best in St. Louis (5.6), hitting .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and a career-high 23 steals in 610 PA. Heyward was part of a 100-win team that year, but after the Cardinals bowed out of the NLDS against the Cubs, the free agent went to … the Cubs. They handed him an eight-year, $184MM guarantee, but Heyward’s regular-season numbers have fallen flat dating back to then. During his first four years as a Cub, Heyward batted an underwhelming .252/.327/.383 line across 2,151 trips to the plate, leading to 6.0 fWAR. Heyward’s typically outstanding defense has kept him afloat, as he has logged 42 Defensive Runs Saved and a 27.2 Ultimate Zone Rating as a Chicago outfielder (overall, he has put up 143 DRS with a 99.5 UZR as a big leaguer). Of course, it’s not always just about statistics.

On Nov. 2, 2016, the Cubs and Indians were tied 6-6 through nine innings and stuck in a rain delay in Game 7 of the World Series. It was two teams trying to break long championship droughts, but on Chicago’s side, Heyward went into Knute Rockne mode in the locker room.

“We’re the best team in baseball, and we’re the best team in baseball for a reason,” Heyward told his teammates (via Tom Verducci’s book “The Cubs Way: The Zen of Building the Best Team in Baseball and Breaking the Curse“). “Now we’re going to show it. We play like the score is nothing-nothing. We’ve got to stay positive and fight for your brothers. Stick together and we’re going to win this game.” 

“Right then I thought, We’re winning this f—— game!,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said.

The Cubs did just that when the 17-minute delay ended, defeating the Indians in the 10th to pick up their first title in 108 years. It’s hard to quantify how much Heyward meant to that team on an emotional level. He went 0-for-5 in that game and posted a miserable .307 OPS during the postseason, which came after he recorded a personal-worst 72 wRC+ in the regular season, but that Game 7 speech will always live in Cubs lore.

While the Cubs haven’t won another title since 2016, Heyward’s production has trended upward going back to then, as he has been something close to a league-average hitter. Still, that’s not great for a former can’t-miss prospect who’s owed another $86MM through 2023. In all, Heyward has been a bit better than average as an offensive player during his career, having batted .261/.343/.412 (107 wRC+) with 144 homers and 110 steals in 5,580 PA. However, consistently stellar defense has helped the 30-year-old accumulate 31.1 fWAR, which is a higher amount than the vast majority of major leaguers have piled up, and he may have helped key a Cubs title behind the scenes. All things considered, how would you grade his career to this point?

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Remembering The No. 1 Picks Of The 1990s

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We know the 2020 Major League Baseball draft is going to be unconventional, an event that will last a mere five rounds compared to the 40 we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Regardless, the team with the No. 1 overall pick – Detroit – is in the best position to land a future superstar. But how many recent top choices have actually panned out? Let’s start in the 1990s, and you can be the judge…

1990: Chipper Jones, Braves:

  • What a success. The former third baseman/outfielder is now a Hall of Famer after spending his entire career with the Braves from 1993-2012. In his first full season, 1995, Jones helped the Braves to their most recent World Series title. Overall, Jones slashed .303/.401/.529 with 468 home runs, 150 stolen bases and 84.6 fWAR, and made eight All-Star teams.

1991: Brien Taylor, Yankees:

  • This couldn’t have gone much worse, as former FanGraphs writer Mike Axisa noted back in 2012. Off-field problems helped prevent the left-handed Taylor from ever taking a major league mound. He’s one of just four No. 1 picks to never get to the league.

1992: Phil Nevin, Astros:

  • Nevin carved out a decent career as a member of several teams from 1995-2006, during which he hit .270/.343/.472 with 208 home runs and 15.2 fWAR, but made little impact with the Astros. They traded him to the Tigers for righty Mike Henneman in 2006. Nevin may be best known as the player the Astros chose five picks before Derek Jeter. Then-Astros scout Hal Newhouser was so insistent Houston should pick Jeter that he quit his job when it didn’t happen.

1993: Alex Rodriguez, Mariners:

  • Good work, Seattle. Rodriguez didn’t last that long with the Mariners (1994-2000), but he made four All-Star teams and batted .309/.374/.561 with 189 homers, 133 steals and 35.0 fWAR during that span. You can’t argue with those results, nor do his next teams – the Rangers or Yankees – regret the numbers he turned in later in his career. Peformance-enhancing drug issues have made the ex-shortstop/third baaseman a polarizing figure, however.

1994: Paul Wilson, Mets:

  • Wilson did pitch in the majors, but he only tossed 149 innings with the Mets (all in 1996) and didn’t log a single frame in the bigs from 1997-99. He did amass almost 800 more innings between the Rays and Reds from 2000-05, but didn’t exactly wow with a lifetime 4.86 ERA.

1995: Darin Erstad, Angels:

  • The former Nebraska punter won three Gold Glovees, made two All-Star teams and helped the Angels to their lone World Series title in 2002. Erstad – an outfielder/first baseman – finished his career in 2009 as a .282/.336/.407 hitter with 124 homers, 179 steals and 28.5 fWAR.

1996: Kris Benson, Pirates:

  • He was never an ace, but the righty had a reasonably productive career, finishing with a 4.42 ERA and 14.8 fWAR in a combined 206 games with the Pirates, Mets, Orioles, Rangers and Diamondbacks from 1999-2010.

1997: Matt Anderson, Tigers:

  • Four of the top five picks in this draft (J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus, Jason Grilli and Vernon Wells) became All-Stars. The lone exception was Anderson, a righty who only produced 0.5 fWAR in 256 2/3 innings between the Tigers and Rockies from 1998-2005.

1998: Pat Burrell, Phillies:

  • Burrell wasn’t a superstar, but he had a solid career, winding up with a .253/.361/.472 line, 292 HRs and 19.0 fWAR among the Phillies, Rays and Giants from 2000-11. He won two World Series – one with the Phils and another with the Giants.

1999: Josh Hamilton, Rays:

  • Hamilton’s off-field troubles were well-documented during his career, and he never played for the Rays as a result. They left Hamilton unprotected in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft, and the Cubs selected him before trading him to the Reds. Hamilton thrived in Cincinnati in 2007 before the team traded him to the Rangers in a deal that sent righty Edinson Volquez to the Reds. That proved to be a steal for the Rangers, with whom Hamilton was a five-time All-Star, an AL MVP winner and someone who helped them to two pennants. He ended his career in 2015 with the Rangers (after a big-money stint with the Angels) as a .290/.349/.516 hitter with 200 HRs and 27.9 fWAR, making him one of the most successful performers on this list.

—

This is a mixed bag, isn’t it? Jones is in Cooperstown. A-Rod’s production could put him there, but he may never get enough support because of the PED questions. Nevin, Erstad, Benson, Burrell and Hamilton had respectable careers in their own right, while Taylor, Wilson and Anderson did little to nothing at the MLB level.

The Extension That Kept The Future World Series MVP In D.C.

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Four years ago today, the Nationals made a franchise-altering decision. The club and Stephen Strasburg agreed on a seven-year, $175MM extension (with deferrals that lowered its present value) on May 10, 2016. The deal kept the then-27-year-old from hitting free agency that winter, where he’d have profiled as the top player on the market in the eyes of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. It registered as a surprise given how close the former #1 overall pick was to the open market, made a bit more eye-opening by his status as a Scott Boras client.

Clearly, though, Strasburg was comfortable with the only organization he’d ever known. And the deal didn’t commit him to Washington for the full seven years; it came with opt-out clauses after 2019 and 2020. He’d have a chance to (and ultimately did) pitch his way to greater earnings in the future.

For the Nationals, the risk-reward calculus was apparent. The extension looked to be a discount relative to Strasburg’s overall earning potential, considering the $200MM+ guarantees secured by Max Scherzer and David Price the two prior offseasons. Still, committing well over nine figures to any pitcher, particularly one with a Tommy John Surgery under his belt, comes with potential pitfalls.

Over the first few seasons, the deal played as a fine one for the club, but it wasn’t any sort of massive bargain. Strasburg was very productive when healthy, combining for a 3.27 ERA/3.13 FIP in 404 innings from the time of signing through the end of 2018. Various injuries kept him just outside the game’s top tier of pitchers, though. In that two and a half year stretch, the right-hander hit the injured list five separate times with back, shoulder, elbow and neck maladies. None had ultimately proven serious, but he had assembled a somewhat ominous laundry list of health problems.

Entering 2019, it didn’t look as if Strasburg was on track to exercise the first of those opt-outs. Then, at age 30, he ripped off a career year. In the regular season, he tossed 209 innings (his first 200-inning season since 2014) of 3.32 ERA ball with stellar strikeout (29.8%), walk (6.7%) and ground-ball (51.1%) rates. That alone would’ve made his season a resounding success, but it was Strasburg’s October work that cemented his place in Nationals’ lore.

He kicked off the 2019 postseason with three scoreless relief innings behind Scherzer in the NL Wild Card game, allowing the Nats to rally late and knock off the Brewers. That was only the beginning. Strasburg would go on to start five playoff games thereafter. He tossed quality starts in all of them, and Washington would go on to win each one. He played a key role in three elimination game victories, including an 8.1 inning gem in Game 6 of the World Series in Houston. All told, he finished the postseason with a 1.98 ERA and an absurd 47:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36.1 innings. He picked up a deserved World Series MVP award for his efforts in bringing the franchise’s first title to D.C.

Strasburg’s again back in the fold long-term. After opting out, he re-signed last winter on another seven-year deal for a $245MM guarantee. Regardless of how his next deal plays out, Strasburg will always have a spot in the heart of the Nationals’ faithful. That’s in large part thanks to the agreement the sides were able to put together four years ago.

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