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Which 15 Players Should The Dodgers Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve covered the Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Dodgers are up next.

First, we’ll remove free agents Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Blake Treinen, Joc Pederson, Alex Wood, Enrique Hernandez, Pedro Baez, and Jimmy Nelson from consideration.  Next, we’ll add Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen to our protected list by virtue of their no-trade rights (Jansen will acquire ten-and-five rights this year).  We’ll lock in Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Brusdar Graterol, and Tony Gonsolin as Baseball America Top 100 prospects with a 2020 ETA (they’ve actually all already arrived in the Majors).  I’ll also lock in another six players, giving us these 12:

Clayton Kershaw
Kenley Jansen
Cody Bellinger
Walker Buehler
Max Muncy
Will Smith
Corey Seager
Julio Urias
Gavin Lux
Dustin May
Tony Gonsolin
Brusdar Graterol

That leaves three spots for the following 14 players:

Scott Alexander
Austin Barnes
Matt Beaty
Caleb Ferguson
Dylan Floro
Joe Kelly
Adam Kolarek
A.J. Pollock
David Price
Edwin Rios
Dennis Santana
Josh Sborz
Ross Stripling
Chris Taylor

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly three players you think the Dodgers should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Which 15 Players Should The Padres Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it!  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve covered the Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.  The Padres are up next.

We’ll start by removing free agents Garrett Richards, Kirby Yates, and Jurickson Profar from consideration.

Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer will make the list due to their no-trade protection.  For this exercise, I’ve also decided to automatically protect any Baseball America Top 100 Prospect to whom they gave a 2020 ETA.  That means Adrian Morejon is on the list.  Otherwise, I’ve decided to make minor leaguers ineligible for our mock expansion draft.  Here’s the full list of 12 Padres I’ll protect out of the gate:

Manny Machado
Eric Hosmer
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Chris Paddack
Adrian Morejon
Tommy Pham
Dinelson Lamet
Joey Lucchesi
Trent Grisham
Drew Pomeranz
Emilio Pagan
Francisco Mejia

That leaves three spots for the following 22 players:

Michel Baez
David Bednar
Ronald Bolanos
Jose Castillo
Franchy Cordero
Zach Davies
Ty France
Greg Garcia
Javy Guerra
Austin Hedges
Pierce Johnson
Andres Munoz
Wil Myers
Josh Naylor
Luis Perdomo
Cal Quantrill
Gerardo Reyes
Craig Stammen
Matt Strahm
Luis Torrens
Breyvic Valera
Trey Wingenter

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly three players you think the Padres should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

How A Minor Signing Led To A Cy Young Winner

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Former major league outfielder Brad Hawpe was a more-than-respectable offensive player during his peak with the Rockies. While Hawpe had difficulty early on from his debut in 2004 through the next season, he combined to slash .288/.384/.518 (124 wRC+) with 99 home runs in 2,338 plate appearances from 2006-09. The last of those four years, an All-Star campaign for Hawpe, went down as his final truly effective effort as a hitter. After Hawpe got off a .255/.343/.432 start (94 wRC+) with only seven homers in 2010, the team released him late that August.

Hawpe, then 31 years old, drew a vast amount of interest when he reached free agency amid a pennant race. He ultimately signed a minor league contract with the Rays, who at the time were in a hotly contested fight for AL East supremacy with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays did end up with 96 victories and a division crown that season before falling in the ALDS, but their regular-season sucess wasn’t Hawpe’s doing. He debuted with Tampa Bay on Sept. 1 and went on to hit .179/.304/.333 with two homers in 39 at-bats in its uniform.

Hawpe didn’t participate in the Rays’ postseason series, and shortly after its conclusion, he rejected their arbitration offer in order to revisit the open market. Because he was a Type B free agent under MLB’s old system, the Rays were entitled to a compensatory draft pick for losing Hawpe. And they did watch him exit when he took San Diego’s $2MM guarantee in January 2011. Hawpe didn’t produce as a Padre or as a member of the Angels, with whom his career concluded in 2013, but the Rays have benefited immensely from his short-term run with them and stand to continue gaining from it over the long haul.

In essence, the Rays traded one month of Hawpe – who cost them very little money – for the 52nd selection in the draft. The Rays used that choice on a then-Washington state high school left-hander named Blake Snell. The year Tampa Bay drafted him, Baseball America wrote in his scouting report, “Because of his signability, his velocity and how well he has performed in front of crosscheckers, Snell could get popped as high as the supplemental first round, though on pure talent he would probably go a few rounds later.”

The gamble has worked out for the Rays, with whom Snell has been elite at times dating back to his first season in 2016. He spun 89 innings of 3.54 ERA ball then, and though Snell struggled enough the next season to earn a short-term demotion to the minors, he returned to MLB to finish with a decent 4.04 ERA in 129 1/3 frames. But it was 2018 when Snell truly took off; owing in part to a jump in velocity, he pitched to a 1.89 ERA with 11.01 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 across 180 2/3 innings en route to AL Cy Young honors.

With injuries troubling him, Snell was unable to reign atop the AL again last year, when his ERA ballooned to 4.29 in 107 innings. However, that’s not to say he totally fell off the map. You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that wouldn’t sign up for the 3.32 FIP and 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 he posted last season.

The Rays already extended Snell on a five-year, $50MM guarantee deal before the prior campaign, keeping a high-end starter under control through 2023. To think, it all started with the minor addition of Hawpe a decade ago. Not bad.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Standout’s Unusual Path To D.C.

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Since he made his major league debut in 2015, Trea Turner has established himself as one of the reigning World Series champion Nationals’ most valuable players. A second baseman and then a center fielder at the beginning of his career, Turner took over as the Nationals’ shortstop in 2017 and now has a stranglehold on the position.

Dating back to his first full season in 2018, Turner has accounted for 8.3 fWAR and hit .283/.348/.451 (110 wRC+) with 38 home runs and 78 stolen bases – the second-highest total in MLB – across 1,309 plate appearances. And the 26-year-old Turner figures to contribute similar or better production in Washington for at least the next couple seasons, as he’s only now about to enter his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns.

With Turner having already given the Nationals quite a bit of surplus value, it’s worth revisiting how he joined the team in the first place. To say the least, it was unusual transaction that led him to D.C. Turner was a 20th-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, but he elected to pass on signing with the Bucs in order to play at North Carolina State. That proved to be a wise decision by Turner, who increased his stock so much as a college player that the Padres took him 13th overall in 2014. Little did Turner or the Padres know then that he’d never play a real game in their uniform, nor was either side aware their relationship would end in such unconventional fashion.

While Turner continued to succeed as a young pro with the Pads, ranking as Baseball America’s 65th-best prospect prior to 2015, the club parted with him that year. Actually, though, San Diego agreed to trade Turner in December 2014 in a three-team blockbuster that also involved the Rays and Nats and. The Padres received outfielder Wil Myers, pitchers Gerardo Reyes and Jose Castillo, and catcher Ryan Hanigan. The Rays acquired first baseman Jake Bauers, righty Burch Smith, outfielder Steven Souza Jr., catcher Rene Rivera and lefty Travis Ott. The Nationals picked up righty Joe Ross and a player to be named later. Ross showed flashes at the beginning of his Nats tenure, but injuries have helped knock him off course in recent years. On the other hand, the PTBNL, Turner, has been a gem.

Although the Padres and Rays had a handshake agreement in regards to Turner, they weren’t allowed to make it official for a while because of previous MLB rules. The league formerly had a system in place that barred teams from trading anyone who wasn’t a year removed from being drafted. So, because Turner didn’t meet that requirement, he had to spend several more months with the Padres, even though he knew he wasn’t really a member of the team. Turner’s agent, Jeff Berry, suggested he’d fight the setup. In the end, however, Turner didn’t officially change hands until June 2015 – one month after the league instituted new rules to stop something similar from taking place.

To the Padres’ credit, they treated Turner well during his waning months with the club. Turner had to go to Padres spring training and play in the minors as part of the franchise as he waited for the finalization of the trade, and he complimented the team on multiple occasions during that period.

Unfortunately for San Diego, it hasn’t gotten nearly enough out of this trade in hindsight. Turner, after all, has clearly become the top player in this massive swap. Myers had an All-Star season in 2016, which persuaded the Padres to hand him a six-year, $83MM extension, but he has fallen off since then and is now someone they’d like to remove from their books. Reyes had a rough go in his MLB debut last season (7.62 ERA), though he did amass 38 strikeouts in 26 innings. Castillo performed well as a rookie two years ago, but injuries wrecked his 2019. Unlike those three, Hanigan never even played for the Padres, who quickly flipped him to the Red Sox for third baseman Will Middlebrooks. Although Middlebrooks did pile up 270 PA as a Padre in 2015, he was just a .212/.241/.361 hitter then.

It’s fair to say this deal will not go down as a shining moment for Padres general manager A.J. Preller. Conversely, it’s one of the many feathers in the cap of GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals, for whom a one-time player to be named later helped to a championship several months back.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A 4-Year-Old Trade That Could Have Long-Term Effects

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For the most part, if one team trades you to another for cash considerations, odds are you aren’t going to amount to much in Major League Baseball. But it was four years ago today that the two Missouri-based franchises – the Royals and Cardinals – came together on a cash/player trade that made an impact in the ensuing couple years and could continue to have a long-term effect. On May 25, 2016, the Cardinals acquired outfielder Jose Martinez, whom the Royals had recently designated for assignment to clear roster space for a guy named Whit Merrifield, for money.

Jose Martinez

Back when the trade occurred, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote of Martinez: “He’s a ten-year minor-league veteran who has yet to crack the majors. In parts of two seasons at Triple-A, Martinez owns a productive .359/.431/.525 batting line over 556 plate appearances. He hasn’t quite maintained the pace he set last year at Omaha, but will nevertheless provide the Cards some outfield depth in the upper levels of their system.”

Indeed, Martinez didn’t look as if he’d make a mark in the majors when the Cardinals got him. After all, along with the Royals, the White Sox and Braves gave up on Martinez earlier in his career. But following a couple months in the Cardinals’ system, the club recalled him Sept. 6, 2016, for his long-awaited major league debut. Martinez has defied the odds and gone on to a pretty successful offensive career since then.

In 2017, his first extensive action in the bigs, Martinez batted a hearty .309/.379/.518 (136 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 307 plate appearances. The good times continued the next season in an even larger role, as Martinez hit .305/.364/.457 (127 wRC+) and put up 17 HRs over 590 trips to the plate. As solid as Martinez was as a hitter then, though, defensive questions have consistently dogged him. He posted minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-5.3 Ultimate Zone Rating as a corner outfielder from 2017-18, preventing him from maxing out his value as a hitter. By fWAR, Martinez was roughly an average contributor during that span, though he was passable as a first baseman in 675 innings in ’18 (minus-1 DRS, minus-3.2 UZR).

If you struggle as a defender, you have to hit in order to be of much use to your team, but Martinez even had difficulty doing that last year. On the heels of two impressive seasons in a row, he stumbled to a low-power line of .269/.340/.410 (101 wRC+) and managed just 10 homers in 373 PA. Between that and more subpar outfield defense (minus-10 DRS, minus-4.6 UZR), Martinez was close to a replacement-level player.

Despite his underwhelming output in 2019, as someone whom they gave up almost nothing to acquire, Martinez provided St. Louis more value than it could have realistically expected when it landed him. However, the Cardinals bid goodbye to Martinez last offseason, sending him, outfielder Randy Arozarena and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick to the Rays in a deal that netted the Redbirds left-hander Matthew Liberatore, Tampa Bay’s Competitive Balance Round B selection and catcher Edgardo Rodriguez.

In the 31-year-old Martinez, the Rays got a player who, as mentioned, has typically fared well at the plate. Plus Martinez is under affordable control for the next three seasons, which is important for a low-budget club. It remains to be seen whether any of the younger talent in the swap will pan out, but it seems Liberatore stands the best chance. The 20-year-old currently ranks as the game’s 42nd-best prospect at Baseball America, which contends that he has “mid-rotation or better” upside.

Unlike the original Martinez trade, which was a win for St. Louis, we don’t yet know how the Cardinals-Rays one will go. Regardless, the Royals-Cards trade from four seasons ago is another sign that deals which may look insignificant at the time are capable of affecting teams for years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Indians Continue To Benefit From The Bartolo Colon Trade

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Today is Bartolo Colon’s 47th birthday, and I think I join just about every baseball fan in hoping that “Big Sexy” can fulfill his goal of making it back to the majors for one more go-around.  While that extra year would be a nice bonus, Colon has already established an incredible legacy over his 21 MLB seasons, with a list of memories ranging from his 2005 AL Cy Young Award to perhaps the most popular home run of the decade.  Colon has accomplished so much since he first broke into the bigs with the Indians at age 24….and yet though it has been close to 18 years since he last donned a Cleveland uniform, the Tribe continues to benefit from Colon’s time with the franchise.

Let’s flash back to 2002.  After establishing himself as a solid member of the rotation during his first five seasons, Colon was on pace for his lowest ERA yet, as he had posted a 2.55 mark over his first 16 starts and 116 1/3 innings of the 2002 campaign.  (Even if a 3.75 FIP indicates that Colon was perhaps somewhat fortunate to manage that 2.55 ERA.)  The downside was that that the Indians were struggling, as the club was preparing for a rebuild after its long run of winning seasons and frequent playoff appearances from 1994-2001.  That made Colon expendable, and the righty was dealt to the Montreal Expos in a blockbuster trade near the end of June.

While Colon pitched well for the Expos, they came up short in their bid for the postseason in what ended up being their third-to-last year in Montreal.  With the Expos controlled by Major League Baseball at the time and rumors swirling that a new owner would likely move the team, then-general manager Omar Minaya decided that a bold move was necessary to try and reinvigorate both Montreal fans and potential local investors.

As such, Minaya threw all caution to the wind in sending a four-player package of Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens to Cleveland in exchange for Colon’s services.  The veteran Stevens (who didn’t play in the big leagues again after the 2002 season) was something of a throw-in, but let’s look at the other three Expos prospects obtained….

Phillips: The second baseman didn’t break out and reach his All-Star form until after he was dealt to the Reds in April 2006, though indirectly, Phillips helped the Indians land Chris Perez.  Phillips went to Cincinnati for righty Jeff Stevens, who was dealt in December 2008 as part of a three-player package (that also included Chris Archer) to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa.  Cleveland sent DeRosa to the Cardinals in June 2009 for a player to be named later and Perez, who recorded 124 saves and reached two All-Star games over his four-plus seasons with the Tribe.

Sizemore:  The Indians received a more direct contribution from Sizemore, as the center fielder soon blossomed into one of the game’s better all-around players.  Sizemore hit .281/.372/.496 from 2005-08, with the fourth-most fWAR (27.3) of any player in baseball during that four-year stretch.  Unfortunately for both Sizemore and the Indians, injuries curtailed what was looking like a special career, and Sizemore played only 419 games total from 2009-15.

Lee: The southpaw’s 182-game tenure in Cleveland had its ups and downs, though he saved the best for last with an outstanding 2008 season.  Lee won the AL Cy Young Award by leading the league in ERA (2.54), ERA+ (167), BB/9 (1.4), and HR/9 (0.5), while also tossing 223 1/3 innings.

He continued to pitch well into the 2009 season, which leads us to the next offshoot of the Colon trade: the deal that sent Lee to the Phillies at the 2009 trade deadline.  Cleveland picked up another four-player package, this time consisting of Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and minor league righty Jason Knapp.  Baseball America ranked Carrasco, Donald, and Marson within their top 100 prospects list prior to the 2009 season, and Knapp made the 2010 list, though Knapp never ended up reaching the big leagues.  Marson ended up playing 261 games in the Show (253 as a part-time catcher for the Indians), hitting .219/.309/.299 over a career that stretched across six seasons.

The other two pieces of the trade went on to become noteworthy parts of Cleveland baseball history…

Carrasco: The man they call “Cookie” is still on the Tribe’s roster, evolving from prospect to a stalwart member of the rotation.  Beyond his contributions on the field, Carrasco has become a popular leader both in the Indians’ clubhouse and around the sport, as witnessed by the outpouring of support he received last season while battling (and ultimately returning from) a leukemia diagnosis.

Donald: After posting a .672 OPS over 603 plate appearances and 170 games with the Indians from 2010-12, Donald never again played in the Majors.  Since perhaps his most memorable baseball moment was his (ahem) infield single to break up Armando Galarraga’s would-be perfect game in June 2010, you may wonder why Donald merits a “noteworthy” designation.

In short, it’s because Donald was part of one of Cleveland’s most memorable trades of the decade.  Granted, nobody refers to the three-team deal between the Indians, Reds, and Diamondbacks in December 2012 as “the Jason Donald trade” given the other big names (namely Shin-Soo Choo and Didi Gregorius) involved.  That said, given the complexity of such multi-team swaps, perhaps the whole negotiation would have fallen apart if the Tribe hadn’t agreed to send Donald to Cincinnati.

Even if Donald didn’t play a headline role in the exchange, the main point is that the Indians received another four-player package on their end of the trade: Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs.  Albers pitched well out of the Tribe’s bullpen in 2013 before departing in free agency.  Stubbs only spent one year in Cleveland before being traded to Colorado in December 2013 for Josh Outman, who gave the Indians 24 2/3 relief innings of 3.28 ERA ball before being swapped to the Yankees for cash considerations.  Looking at the other two names…

Shaw: The biggest bullpen reinforcement of the group, Shaw became a workhorse of a setup man from 2013-17.  Three times a league-leader in appearances during that five-year stretch, Shaw posted a 3.11 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.8 K/BB rate over 358 2/3 frames in Cleveland.

Bauer: The right-hander was no stranger to controversy over his six-plus seasons with the Indians, though he developed from solid starter to an ace in 2018, posting a 2.21 ERA over 175 1/3 innings and finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting.  Somewhat similar to Lee’s situation, Bauer continued to pitch well enough into the next season that he became part of a major pre-deadline trade.

This three-team swap is a bit fresher in our memory banks, but as a reminder, the Padres, Reds, and Indians combined on a blockbuster that saw Bauer go to Cincinnati while top Reds outfield prospect Taylor Trammell went to San Diego.  The other five players involved in the trade all went to the Indians: Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and prospects Logan Allen, Scott Moss, and Victor Nova.

The “Wild Horse” has already come and gone from Cleveland, as Puig departed for free agency and was still looking for a new team prior to the league-wide transactions freeze.  Acquired to help offset salary and add some pop to the ever-shifting Tribe outfield, Puig hit pretty well during his brief stint with the Indians, slashing .297/.377/.423 over 207 PA, though he managed only two home runs (as opposed to his 22 in 404 PA with the Reds).  Nova is a 20-year-old rookie ball prospect, while MLB Pipeline ranks Moss ranks 18th among all Indians prospects and projects him as a possible back-of-the-rotation starter if he can harness his control.  As for the other two…

Allen: Going into 2019 as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball, Allen badly struggled at the Triple-A level last year.  His hopes at a rebound have been hampered the possibility that the minor league season could be canceled entirely, though Allen could potentially find a role on the 20-player taxi squad backing up an expanded 30-player Cleveland roster.  The southpaw was badly hurt by home runs last season, so the Tribe hope that getting more used to the livelier ball will help Allen get back on track.

Reyes: The 24-year-old slugger got off to a slow start after the trade to Cleveland, but recovered to hit .237/.304/.468 with 10 homers over 194 PA in an Indians uniform.  Reyes will now have to cut down on the strikeouts and become a bit more of a well-rounded hitter in order to fully unlock the hitting potential that is clearly evident from his power numbers.

So to recap, trading Colon in 2002 has led to five current members of the Indians organization.  Over those 18 years since the Expos trade, dealing Colon also directly and indirectly led to a Cy Young Award winner (Lee), another starter with at least one Cy Young-caliber campaign (Bauer), two relievers who delivered consistent results over multiple seasons (Shaw and Perez), four years from an MVP candidate (Sizemore), and other small contributions from a host of other players.  This group all contributed to at least one of the Tribe’s five postseason appearances from 2007-18, and the club now hopes that Carrasco, Reyes, Allen, and company can call be part of Cleveland’s next playoff team.

That adds up to at least two windows of contention, and who knows if future trades or transactions could spin some of those current players on the roster into even bigger contributors down the road.  While the Indians have already gotten so much in return from that 2002 deal, as with seemingly all things involving Bartolo Colon, you never know when another delightful surprise could emerge.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Blockbuster That Brought The Tigers Their Most Valuable Trade Chip

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The Blue Jays were the talk of the 2015 trade deadline. A few days after bringing in star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies, the Jays struck for the top rental starting pitcher on the market: Tigers’ left-hander David Price. Amidst a seven-year run of pristine durability and general excellence, 2015 was perhaps Price’s peak season. At the time of the deal, he was sitting on a 2.53 ERA over 146 innings.

It was a fascinating swap for a number of reasons. The 52-51 Jays were only 1.5 games above the Tigers in the standings, making the organizations’ decisions to take diverging approaches at the deadline particularly interesting. At the time, Fangraphs gave the talented, but to that point underperforming, Toronto club a 48.9% shot of reaching the postseason, while the Tigers’ playoff odds sat at a lowly 9.7%. In that context, it makes sense then-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous considered the time right to push his chips in; it’s equally sensible then-Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski pivoted his organization toward a rebuild.

Just as notable was the steep acquisition cost. The Jays sent the Tigers a trio of left-handed pitching prospects, led by Daniel Norris, who had entered that season as Baseball America’s #18 overall prospect. He’d had some strike-throwing issues in the minors, but Norris looked the part of a potential power mid-rotation starter.

Unfortunately, Norris has never really made good on that immense promise. In four-plus seasons in Detroit, the former second-rounder has a cumulative 4.56 ERA/4.41 FIP in 396.1 innings. His once-dominant stuff has waxed and waned in that time. Norris quietly had a strong second half in 2019, particularly after being limited to three innings per start in August. Perhaps there’s hope yet for the 27-year-old to find his niche.

Even if Norris hasn’t turned out the way Detroit fans may have envisioned, the Tigers have gotten plenty of long-term value from the Price deal. Matthew Boyd was arguably viewed as the third piece at the time, behind Norris and Jairo Labourt. (Labourt, then a well-regarded low minors starter, never panned out, even after moving to the bullpen). Boyd had already reached the majors but was viewed as a back-of-the-rotation type. Suffice it to say most didn’t envision him emerging as one of the game’s premier strikeout artists, but that’s exactly what he did in 2019. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Boyd ranked thirteenth in strikeout rate (30.2%) while maintaining his long-lauded control (6.2% walk rate).

Boyd’s 4.56 ERA didn’t match up with those strong peripherals, mostly due to an abundance of home runs. Indeed, he’s a fly ball pitcher who may always serve up a few too many longballs to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. As much as any pitcher in baseball, Boyd could stand to benefit if the ball is less lively than it has been in recent seasons. More than ever, though, teams covet pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff. Between his four-seamer and slider, Boyd has a pair of bat-missing weapons.

With the Tigers yet to emerge from the rebuild the Price trade symbolically kicked off, Boyd himself could be on the move in the near future. Detroit didn’t actively look to trade him last offseason, but the club also seems unlikely to contend by 2022, his final season of team control. He’ll no doubt pique contending teams’ interest and would bring back a much stronger return than his ERA might otherwise suggest.

As for the Jays, their story has been told many times, although their fans may not mind hearing it once more. They stormed back in the second half, not only securing a playoff berth but erasing a seven-game deficit to win the AL East. Toronto knocked off the Rangers in the ALDS that year in one of the more memorable series in recent history. Their magical second-half run came to an end in the ALCS at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Royals. Price was instrumental to that success, tossing 74.1 innings of 2.30 ERA ball in the season’s final two months. He parlayed his longtime excellence into a seven year, $217MM deal with the Red Sox that offseason.

All told, the trade looks like a win for both sides. The Blue Jays got an elite two months from an ace to help propel them to a division title. The Tigers have gotten plenty of valuable innings over the longer term. Indeed, they got their high strikeout, mid-rotation southpaw out of the deal, even if it wasn’t the player anyone expected to it be.

Have The Royals Found Another Rule 5 Gem?

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After selecting Joakim Soria out of the Padres’ farm system in the 2006 Rule 5 Draft, it could be argued that the Royals are still in the “playing with house money” honeymoon phase of the Rule 5 process.  After all, even landing a Rule 5 player who can stick on a Major League roster for an entire season is a success, never mind landing a two-time All-Star like Soria through his 2007-11 heyday as Kansas City’s closer.

Eleven years after drafting Soria, it seems like the Royals again struck gold via the Rule 5 process.  While Brad Keller has yet to reach All-Star levels, the right-hander has already enjoyed enough success over his first two MLB seasons that he looks like a solid building block for a young K.C. team.

Keller was an eighth-round pick for the Diamondbacks in the 2013 draft, and through five pro seasons had compiled some decent but unspectacular numbers in the Arizona farm system.  Over 130 1/3 innings for Double-A Jackson in 2017, Keller posted a 4.68 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 1.95 K/BB rate, which wasn’t quite good enough for him to make the grade amidst something of a 40-man roster crunch for the D’Backs.

Coming off a 93-win season and a NLDS appearance in 2017, the Diamondbacks were focused on using much of their available 40-man spaces on players who could potentially provide immediate help in 2018, as GM Mike Hazen explained to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro two years ago.  “Our scouts liked [Keller]. We liked him,” Hazen said.  “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the Major League team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys…that were closer to the big leagues in our mind.”

So, the D’Backs left Keller unprotected in December 2017 draft, and it didn’t take long for another team to pounce on the right-hander.  However, that other team wasn’t actually the Royals, whose spot in the Rule 5 draft order didn’t fall until the #18 spot that year.  Instead it was the Reds who took Keller with the fifth pick, and then promptly dealt him to Kansas City for cash considerations.  (The Royals swung a similar move just one pick later, acquiring sixth pick Burch Smith for cash from the Mets after New York selected Smith out of Tampa Bay’s farm system.)

Smith also ended up spending the entire 2018 season on the K.C. roster, though he was cut loose after posting a 6.92 ERA over 78 innings.  Keller, on the other hand, was much more of an immediate success.  After posting a 2.01 ERA over his first 22 1/3 frames of work out of Kansas City’s bullpen in 2018, Keller was promoted to the rotation and continued to succeed.  The righty had a 3.28 ERA over his 20 starts, striking out 83 batters (against 43 walks) over 118 innings.

Keller’s sophomore year wasn’t quite as impressive, though he still managed a quite respectable 4.19 ERA, 1.74 K/BB, and 6.6 K/9 over 165 1/3 frames, all as a member of the Royals rotation.  It could be argued that Keller was perhaps fortunate to manage that 4.19 mark, as some ERA predictors (4.94 xFIP, 5.23 SIERA) were significantly higher, and batters made much more solid contract off him in 2019 than in 2018.  The Statcast metrics also took a dim view of Keller’s 2019 performance, with a whole lot of blue — as in, below-average — numbers for Keller in comparison to other pitchers in exit velocity, xwOBA, strikeout percentage, and several other categories.

That said, advanced metrics don’t tend to favor low-strikeout hurlers like Keller who specialize in keeping the ball on the ground.  Among pitchers with at least 300 innings tossed over the last two seasons, Keller has the lowest (8.4%) home run rate in baseball, and the second-highest (52%) grounder rate.  These outstanding numbers are particularly valuable in this era of the lively ball, and Keller could further benefit from some improved defense behind him, should Maikel Franco provide any sort of upgrade at third base.

All told, 4.8 fWAR over two seasons already represents a very nice return on the Royals’ initial minor cash outlay to Cincinnati.  Keller doesn’t turn 25 until July, and he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this coming offseason, putting him under the Royals’ control through the 2023 campaign.  Under normal circumstances, Keller could be a player the Royals might have already locked up to a contract extension, and while all extension talks are halted under the current transactions freeze, it wouldn’t be a surprise if K.C. began some talks with Keller’s representatives once regular business gets back underway.

While truly major Rule 5 Draft success stories are relatively few and far between these days, a team only needs to hit on one pick to make the enterprise worthwhile.  Finding a big league talent for virtually nothing is a win for any team, and if that talent is a mid-20’s starting pitcher who looks like he can hang in at least the middle of a big league rotation, the Royals got a valuable boost to their latest rebuilding effort.

The Rangers’ New-Look Rotation Has Big-Time Upside

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Historically, pitching has not been a strength of the Texas Rangers. The franchise has consistently found itself sorely lacking true aces; outside of Nolan Ryan, there aren’t really any iconic pitchers that come to mind when you think of the Rangers. Kenny Rogers, anyone?

That trend held true once again last year, with the Rangers posting an overall 5.09 ERA that ranked seventh-worst in baseball. That said, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor anchored the top of the rotation admirably, each garnering Cy Young consideration and holding the staff intact during the hot Texas summer.

But when the 2020 season boots up, Lynn and Minor will have some help, and starting pitching may indeed be a strength for this year’s iteration of the team. GM Jon Daniels and company made a concerted effort in the winter to acquire starting pitchers—and they did so at relatively little cost, meaning that a bit of short-term ambition likely won’t impeach on the franchise’s future plans.

Corey Kluber is the big-name addition, and the two-time Cy Young winner should do plenty to bolster the Rangers’ staff. Even so, the team didn’t mortgage the future to bring him aboard: Kluber is only guaranteed a contract for this year, with a vesting option that could keep him in Texas through 2021. Coming off a season in which he could pitch in just seven games, he was acquired in exchange for Delino DeShields and Emmanuel Clase, a move that was widely praised at the time and looks even worse for Cleveland in light of Clase’s PED suspension.

But the smaller-scale signings of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, while not deserving of the same attention as the acquisition of a decade-defining pitcher like Kluber, could together have just as great an impact on the Rangers’ success as Kluber. In the offseason, Lyles signed on with a two-year, $16MM deal, while Gibson earned himself a three-year contract worth $28MM. Together, they’ll make $19MM in 2020, just a hair more than Kluber’s salary.

Lyles has been around forever, it seems, breaking in as a young arm with the Astros and Rockies, but it took until his age-28 season for him to put it all together as a starter. After a slow start with the Pirates earned him a trade to Milwaukee, he put up career-best numbers, striking out 146 batters in 141 innings, an unprecedented rate for Lyles.

How come? The simple version is that Lyles began relying less and less on his sinker, a staple in his repertoire throughout the early stages of his career. His sinker usage dropped to a minuscule 1.7% last year while he threw four-seam fastballs 50.2% of the time, more than he ever had before. The curveball also became a more important weapon in his pitch mix.

That isn’t too unlike the formula that Lance Lynn rode to his career-best 2019 season. Just like Lyles, Lynn’s sinker usage hit a career low last year, replaced almost entirely by four-seam fastballs—largely in the upper part of the strike zone. This isn’t unique to the Rangers—the Astros’ unparalleled pitching brilliance hinges on this philosophy—and it’s a trend that has redefined the way we look at pitching in MLB.

It’s an approach that worked for the Rangers last year, Lynn’s first in Texas, and perhaps Daniels is confident that his staff can use it to produce similar results with Lyles and Gibson this year. Sure enough, the sinker has been Gibson’s most-used pitch through his first five years as a big-leaguer. Sound familiar? Granted, Gibson’s four-seamer hasn’t been a great pitch for him, but throwing fewer sinkers could in turn lead to a jump in his slider usage, a high-spin pitch that may be a hidden gem.

Still, pitching at the MLB level is not as simple as flipping a switch and saying, “sinker bad, four-seam good.” That approach can’t be uniformly applied to every pitcher in baseball with the same results; there’s a reason careers have been forged around the sinker. And yet, the proliferation of the high fastball in MLB lends credence to its value, and the Rangers may have pursued the likes of Gibson and Lyles with that style in mind.

But that’s only half the battle; the burden then falls on the coaching staff and players themselves to accept and implement adjustments. It’s why we still play the games when there’s such a wealth of knowledge out there. So we’ll anxiously await the 2020 season to see whether the on-field results look as good as the ideas that underpin them.

The Rays Left An Asset Unprotected And A Division Rival Noticed

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It’s no secret that the Baltimore Orioles need pitching. While GM Mike Elias and company work on building a development pipeline, the O’s are spending a lot of time scouring other organizations for excess talent to skim off the top. 

Take 30-year-old right-hander Cole Sulser. Baltimore’s waiver claim in early October doesn’t jump out as an impact move, but there’s potential beneath the surface for Sulser and the birds. Before digging into Sulser’s prospects, let’s cover the backstory. 

In December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around first baseman candidates. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with a major-league first baseman. The Rays chose Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, and the Indians actually snagged two first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. Tagging along, Sulser went from the Indians to the Rays, for whom he made 7 scoreless appearances last season. But the Rays are no longer in line to be the beneficiaries of a potential Sulser breakout. 

Granted, it’s suspect that the Indians and Rays – two organizations with strong reputations for identifying and developing pitching – both passed up on the opportunity to roster Sulser. Sulser isn’t locked into a roster spot with the Orioles either, but he should have an easier time carving out a role with the pitching-needy Orioles than he did with either of his previous organizations. The short season very well may expand rosters, too, giving Sulser a greater opportunity to toe the rubber in Baltimore. 

So where does the optimism for Sulser come from? Last year Sulser made 49 appearances (4 starts), spanning a robust 66 innings with a 3.29 ERA. His peripherals look good with a 12.1 K/9 to 3.3 BB/9. He put together similar numbers the year prior while in the Indians system (3.86 ERA over 60 ⅔ innings with 14.1 K/9 to 2.5 BB/9). Those numbers were helped by including a 9-inning scoreless stint in Double-A, without which a 4.53 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look quite as impressive. 

It is, however, a positive sign to see Sulser improve year-over-year when repeating the level. The Dartmouth grad doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s made himself into a double-digit strikeout-per-nine guy over the last couple of seasons. Sulser could yet turn himself into a late-blooming bullpen piece. He’s probably not Nick Anderson, but there’s value to unearth from an arm like Sulser. Breakouts for players on the wrong side of thirty aren’t exactly commonplace, of course, but late bloomers often emerge in the bullpen.  Sulser doesn’t have to become the next Kirby Yates to add value to the O’s organization. With 5 appearances in spring training with a 1.53 ERA and 8 strikeouts in 4 ⅔ innings, he was off to a good start. 

The Orioles may not have a lot of crucial innings to lockdown, but if they can help Sulser establish himself as a reliable arm, he could become the type of cost-controlled asset teams in contention ask after. For the Orioles these days, that’s more-or-less the goal. 

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