Extension Candidate: J.T. Realmuto
It has been almost exactly one full year since J.T. Realmuto became a member of the Phillies, and needless to say, the Phils didn’t swing that trade with the intention of only keeping Realmuto for two seasons. There has been talk of a potential contract extension between the two sides for several months, with mutual interest between both Realmuto and the club in a long-term commitment.
First things first, however, the All-Star catcher and the team are headed towards an arbitration hearing after a rather large difference in their submitted salary figures. The Phillies offered Realmuto $10MM, while the backstop and his camp are looking for $12.4MM, in part out of a desire to move the line forward for future catchers going through the arb process.
It’s possible that this hearing could be avoided altogether if a Realmuto extension includes the 2020 season, though the Phillies could prefer to deal with Realmuto’s 2020 salary as a separate matter for luxury tax purposes. Since every player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value of their contact, an extension that covers the 2020 season would put Realmuto’s value for the coming year at a much higher total than $10MM or $12.4MM, and thus would put the Phillies much closer to the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. As per Roster Resource, the Phillies are already close to the line with a projected tax number of roughly $204.6MM.
As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury noted back in November, a Realmuto extension that didn’t begin until the 2021 season would give the Phillies some extra breathing room under the tax limit. Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and (if a club option isn’t exercised) David Robertson are all scheduled for free agency, which removes $45MM in salary obligations off the books.
If Realmuto’s extension doesn’t begin until 2021, however, that also changes the earning framework. Realmuto turns 29 in March, so an extension would therefore begin with his age-30 season, knocking one year of his prime out of the contractual conversation.
That said, being out of his 20’s won’t stop Realmuto from landing one of the richest contracts ever awarded to a catcher. The Oklahoma native has delivered four straight years of outstanding play, hitting .283/.335/.464 with 74 home runs over 2248 plate appearances for the Marlins and Phillies since the start of the 2016 season. Defensively, Realmuto has been an above-average catcher over that stretch, and his glovework took a big step forward in 2019, as Baseball Prospectus ranked him at or near the top of the list in framing, blocking, and throwing out baserunners. (Realmuto won his first career Gold Glove for his efforts.)
Health-wise, there isn’t too much concern for Realmuto after six MLB seasons. While he underwent right meniscus surgery in September, the procedure was considered to be more of a general cleanup, and nothing that would keep Realmuto from missing any time this season or even in Spring Training. His only injured list appearance was a three-week stint in April 2018 due to a back contusion, and both the Marlins and Phillies have sporadically played Realmuto at first base to help keep him fresh while still keeping his bat in the lineup.
Yasmani Grandal‘s four-year, $73MM free agent deal with the White Sox from November provides a fresh comparable for a Realmuto extension, and gives Realmuto’s agents at CAA Sports a clear floor for negotiations. Grandal received his deal entering his age-31 season, so an easy case could be made for Realmuto to receive at least a five-year, $91.25MM pact.
As we saw with Realmuto’s arbitration case, he has an eye towards helping catchers of the future, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him seek an extension that hits a couple of notable benchmarks — a deal that would make him the third catcher to both earn a contract worth $100MM or more (after Joe Mauer and Buster Posey) and also earn $20MM in average annual value (after Mauer and Yadier Molina). Something as simple as a five-year, $100MM extension would check both of those boxes, though I could see Realmuto seeking a bit more in order to top Molina’s $20MM AAV.
Matching or surpassing the $23MM average annual value of Mauer’s contract probably isn’t feasible, as that record-setting eight-year/$184MM deal began with Mauer’s age-28 season. Offering a higher AAV over a shorter timeframe has some advantages for Philadelphia, as the team wouldn’t be paying Realmuto too deep into his mid-30’s, though the Phillies might prefer to spread Realmuto’s value out to lessen his luxury tax hit.
Could a six-year deal be palatable for the Phillies? Realmuto has been a durable performer, as mentioned earlier, and he could be transitioned into a first base role as he approaches his mid-30’s. Depending on what the Phillies decide to do with Rhys Hoskins in terms of a future extension, Realmuto could even be a candidate to take over first base after the 2023 season, which is Hoskins’ final year of team control. Philadelphia has a few interesting but non-elite catching prospects (Rafael Marchan, Deivy Grullon, Rodolfo Duran) who could be groomed as Realmuto’s eventual backup or successor, or perhaps even turned into trade chips if Realmuto ends up having the catcher position on lockdown for first half of the decade.
Six years could end up being a bridge too far for the Phillies, though Realmuto could have some leverage in pointing out the weakness of the projected 2020-21 free agent catching market. While some decent backstops will be available, none are anywhere near Realmuto’s level, and his departure would leave Philadelphia back at square one behind the plate. For a Phillies team that plans to become a consistent contender and has already shown its willingness to spend, letting arguably the sport’s best catcher walk away in free agency would seem like a curious move, especially given the significant package of young talent (Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart) the Phils gave up to get Realmuto from Miami in the first place.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
MLBTR Poll: NL East Favorite
The World Series champions came from the National League East in 2019, when the appropriately named Nationals took home their first-ever title. It has been an active few months in the division since then. Even the notoriously low-budget Marlins have gotten in on the act, having added multiple veterans in an attempt to climb out of the gutter in 2020. Odds are that the Marlins still won’t be in the race, though, so who’s the front-runner among the other four to win the division this year? It appears they’re all legitimate candidates.
Although the Nationals just won it all, they did so by getting into the playoffs by way of a wild-card berth, not an NL East title. That honor went to the Braves for the second year in a row. The Braves still have not been victorious in a playoff series since 2001, and they lost their No. 1 free agent, third baseman Josh Donaldson. However, even in the wake of Donaldson’s departure, they still bring a formidable roster to the table. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., first baseman Freddie Freeman, second baseman Ozzie Albies and right-hander Mike Soroka haven’t gone anywhere. They’re now complemented by free-agent additions in outfielder Marcell Ozuna, lefty Cole Hamels and reliever Will Smith, among others.
Like the Braves, the Nats lost their marquee free agent, another third baseman in Anthony Rendon. There’s no easy way to replace him, though the team does have Asdrubal Cabrera on hand as a stopgap until standout prospect Carter Kieboom is ready to assume the reins. Rendon’s exit hasn’t deterred Washington from trying to go for a second straight title in 2020, as the club has re-signed righty Stephen Strasburg, to name one of several players, and picked up first baseman Eric Thames, second baseman Starlin Castro and reliever Will Harris from outside.
The Mets and Phillies were the next best teams in the division last season, and both clubs have new managers (Luis Rojas for New York, Joe Girardi for Philadelphia). They also have different-looking rosters compared to then. The Mets lost righty Zack Wheeler to the Phillies, whose $118MM guarantee ranks among the richest of the offseason. They still boast a quality rotation, though, with Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz and the newly signed Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha in the mix to complement back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. They also continue to feature a solid lineup headlined by the powerful Pete Alonso, last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, as well as Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil.
The Phillies did far more heavy lifting last offseason than this winter, but they’ve still been aggressive with the signings of Wheeler, who should give them a true No. 2 starter behind Aaron Nola, and shortstop Didi Gregorius. On paper, they look like a better team than the one that finished an even 81-81 a season ago.
Philly was a fourth-place squad in 2019, but it may be in line to push for a division title this year. However, it’ll have to overcome three strong clubs in the Braves (97-65), Nats (93-69) and Mets (86-76). The offseason isn’t over yet, but as of now, which team do you think is the favorite?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the NL East favorite?
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Braves 59% (15,399)
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Nationals 17% (4,292)
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Mets 16% (4,062)
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Phillies 9% (2,244)
Total votes: 25,997
Revisiting Last Offseason’s Biggest Extensions: Pitchers
Earlier this evening, we checked in on how the five hitters who signed the richest contract extensions before last season began performed in 2019. Let’s do the same here with pitchers…
Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox – five years, $145MM through 2024: It’s understandable why the Red Sox locked up Sale, who was then coming off an otherworldly season in which he helped the club to a World Series title. Sale battled shoulder problems late in that year, however, and dealt with further injury woes and a drop in performance last season. The 30-year-old wound up throwing 147 1/3 innings, his fewest since 2011, thanks in part to elbow issues. When he did take the mound, Sale put up a career-worst ERA (4.40) and saw his average fastball velocity drop exactly 2 mph (95.7 to 93.7) from 2018. Those are alarming facts, but the bottom line is that there’s still plenty to like with Sale in the here and now. He did, after all, post a 3.39 FIP/2.93 xFIP/3.00 SIERA with an eye-popping 13.32 K/9 against 2.26 BB/9 during his “down” 2019.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets – four years, $120.5MM through 2023: This contract looks like a steal for the Mets, who retained arguably the best pitcher in the game for almost three times less than Gerrit Cole got in free agency this winter. After receiving his extension last March, the 31-year-old deGrom proceeded to put up his second straight NL Cy Young-winning season, during which he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.67 FIP with 11.25 K/9 and 1.94 BB/9 in 204 innings.
Miles Mikolas, RHP, Cardinals – four years, $68MM through 2023: Mikolas struggled in the majors early in his career, dominated in Japan for a couple years, and then thrived in his first season back in the bigs with the Cardinals in 2018. They were impressed enough to lock up Mikolas for the long haul before last season, but the 31-year-old declined somewhat. He still offered quality production, though, with his velocity and swinging-strike rates in the same vicinity as the previous season. Mikolas ended up tossing 184 frames of 4.16 ERA/4.27 FIP ball with 7.04 K/9 and 1.57 BB/9 (the fourth-lowest walk rate in MLB).
Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros – two years, $66MM through 2021: There’s not much to say here besides the obvious: This looks like a good decision. The ageless Verlander, soon to turn 37, just won the second AL Cy Young of his career. He’s in line to front the Astros’ staff, which lost Cole, for at least two more seasons.
Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs – four years, $55.5MM through 2023: The soft-tossing Hendricks isn’t the flashiest, but the 30-year-old righty has typically kept runs off the board and limited walks. Last season was no different – Hendricks recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.61 FIP with 7.63 K/9 against 1.67 BB/9 over 177 innings. With a fastball that only clocks in around 87 mph, there’s little room for error, but Hendricks has made it work so far. Despite Hendricks’ unimposing velocity, his fastball was one of the most valuable in the game last year, per FanGraphs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Revisiting Last Offseason’s Biggest Extensions: Hitters
We’re on the cusp of spring training, which is also a popular time for teams and players to work out long-term extensions. We saw several of those deals handed out before last season began. Let’s check in on how those pacts look now, beginning with the hitters who inked the five largest extensions of last offseason…
Mike Trout, CF, Angels – 10 years, $360MM: It’s anyone’s guess how this contract will look at the tail end of it (see: Pujols, Albert), but despite the amount, it has the makings of a wise decision at the moment. After all, the 28-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, continued to steamroll the opposition in 2019 – a season in which he earned his eighth straight All-Star nod and the third AL MVP of his career. The Angels really had no choice but to lock up Trout, and had they not done so, he’d be entering a contract year right now. He would also be in prime position to land an even richer contract on the open market less than a year from now.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies – seven years, $234MM: This deal already comes off as questionable for the Rockies, and it’s not because Arenado faded in 2019. On the contrary, the 28-year-old picked up his fifth straight All-Star honors and earned his seventh Gold Glove in a row. But Arenado is now known to be fed up with the Rockies because they haven’t done much to better their roster this winter after a horrid season, and he seems open to a trade as a result. However, his enormous new contract includes an opt-out clause after 2021, so teams probably aren’t champing at the bit to pay for seven years of Arenado in a trade when he could end up spending just two seasons in their uniform. And Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich isn’t just going to give away Arenado, Colorado’s franchise player, no matter how unhappy he may be with the organization. Needless to say, the two sides are in a spot neither expected to be in when they committed to each other for the long haul just months ago.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals – five years, $130MM: Arizona’s version of Goldschmidt was an elite player for most of his tenure there from 2011-18, which led the Cardinals to trade significant talent for him more than a year ago. Unfortunately for the Cards, though, the 2019 edition of Goldschmidt was pedestrian compared to his D-backs self. Goldschmidt wasn’t bad by any stretch, evidenced in part by his 34 home runs and 2.9 fWAR, but the .260/.346/.476 line he posted in 682 plate appearances comes up way short next to his career slash of .292/.391/.524. The drop-off’s not a great sign for a 32-year-old at the beginning of the biggest contract in Cardinals history.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros – five years, $100MM: This has not been a banner winter for the Astros, and if you follow the game at all, you know why. They are coming off a pennant-winning season, though, and Bregman was a key part of it. The 25-year-old was in the inner circle of premier players for the second straight season, slashing .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs and 8.5 fWAR in 690 plate appearances. The Astros still owe Bregman a lot of money, but he’s young enough that it seems safe to say they won’t regret ponying up for him.
Aaron Hicks, CF, Yankees – seven years, $70MM: Thanks to the injuries Hicks has suffered since signing it, this gamble hasn’t worked out to the Yankees’ liking so far. Hicks missed all but 59 games last year while battling back and elbow problems, and when he did play, he wasn’t nearly as effective as he was over the previous couple seasons. Worsening matters, Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow this past October, meaning the 30-year-old will sit out a sizable portion of the upcoming campaign.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
9 Free-Agent Hitters Coming Off Productive Offensive Seasons
With just about every major free agent already off the board, it’s officially buy-low season across baseball. Plenty of teams are surely searching for diamonds in the rough at this point, and as we’ll explore below, there may be some left on the offensive side. Here are the still-unsigned hitters who had the most productive years at the plate in 2019…
Hunter Pence, OF/DH – .297/.358/.552 (128 wRC+) in 316 plate appearances
- The former star’s career looked to have flamed out a year ago at this time, but Pence took a minor league contract with the Rangers and enjoyed a resurgence at the plate. The right-handed Pence provided quality production against righty and lefty pitchers alike, clubbed 18 home runs and earned solid marks from Statcast (including for his speed, which is unexpected for a 36-year-old). Pence’s age, the injuries he dealt with last season and the fact that he didn’t play the field much in 2019 are all causes for concern, though, and have likely played a role in the fact that he hasn’t found a new deal so far this offseason. A reunion with the Giants – with whom he wouldn’t be able to DH – could be in the offing, however.
Cameron Maybin, OF – .285/.364/.494 (127 wRC+) in 269 plate appearances
- Another ex-Giant (among other teams), Maybin surprisingly emerged as one of the unsung heroes for the injury-ravaged Yankees, who acquired him from Cleveland in late April in what looked like a minor trade at the time. Maybin proceeded to turn in one of his finest seasons at the plate, swatting 11 home runs and swiping nine bases along the way. He also proved to still be a viable outfield option at the age of 32, combining for scratch defense (zero DRS, minus-0.2 UZR) in the grass, though the longtime center fielder didn’t see much action there. Maybin said back in October he wanted to re-sign with the Yankees, but there hasn’t been any indication that they’re going to bring him back. Pittsburgh’s a possibility, though.
Brad Miller, INF/ OF – .260/.329/.565 (126 wRC+) in 170 plate appearances
- Miller hasn’t turned into the standout many expected when he was a prospect, but he has typically been able to offer passable offense while playing several positions (albeit not that well, per the defensive metrics). Last season was pretty much the same story for the well-traveled 30-year-old, but he gave the Phillies much more than they could’ve realistically hoped for upon acquiring him from the Indians in the middle of June. That said, it’s worth noting the left-handed Miller wasn’t an option for the Phils against southpaws, nor has he performed well against them overall.
Wilmer Flores, INF – .317/.361/.467 (120 wRC+) in 285 plate appearances
- This has been a quiet winter for Flores since the Diamondbacks bought out his $6MM option after the season, but his market has reportedly begun to pick up. Still just 28, Flores has regularly mixed decent or better offense with defensive versatility, so could be a rather useful pickup for someone heading into 2020.
Domingo Santana, OF/DH – .253/.329/.441 (107 wRC+) in 507 plate appearances
- The youngest player on this list (27), Santana has flashed tantalizing potential at times – especially during a 3.3-fWAR season with the Brewers in 2017 – but hasn’t been able to put it together on a regular basis. He got off to a hot start as a Mariner last year before tanking in the second half, in part because of a nagging elbow injury. And Santana earned good defensive grades as recently as 2018, but he was among the game’s very worst fielders last season (minus-17 DRS, minus-16.1 UZR). Whether he’ll be limited to mostly DH duties in 2020 remains to be seen, and that’s if he even gets a major league opportunity. No one has been connected to Santana in the rumor mill since the Mariners non-tendered him almost two full months ago.
Brock Holt, INF/OF – .297/.369/.402 (103 wRC+) in 295 plate appearances
- The 31-year-old Holt has had an up-and-down career, but the longtime member of the Red Sox is like Flores in that he has usually given his team presentable offense and defensive flexibility. Last season was no different, although it was an injury-limited campaign. He’s now one of two MLBTR top 50 free agents still without a job, but the Blue Jays have shown recent interest in him.
Yasiel Puig, OF – .267/.327/.458 (101 wRC+) in 611 plate appearances
- The other remaining member of MLBTR’s top 50, Puig hasn’t had any luck this offseason in the wake of a disappointing year between both Ohio teams. Puig entered 2019 as someone with a rather productive track record, though, and still has another full season left in his 20s. The colorful Puig seems to be an acquired taste behind the scenes, but there’s a case for several teams to buy low on him and hope he returns to the form he regularly showed as a Dodger.
Brian Dozier, 2B – .238/.340/.430 (99 wRC+) in 482 plate appearances
- Dozier’s not the hugely powerful, bag-stealing second baseman he was during his halcyon days with the Twins. Still, he provided league-average offense last year as a National and, for the sixth straight season, amassed at least 20 HRs. In other words, a team could definitely do worse at the keystone than the soon-to-be 33-year-old. The Diamondbacks had interest in him as of last weekend, but they’ve since acquired center fielder Starling Marte, which means Ketel Marte will shift to second. Consequently, Dozier to the desert doesn’t appear as if it will happen.
Tim Beckham, INF – .237/.293/.461 (99 wRC+) in 328 plate appearances
- There are some obvious red flags regarding Beckham. For one, he’ll miss a sizable portion of the season after MLB hit him with an 80-game PED suspension last August. And while Beckham did manage a useful slash line before his year came to an abrupt end, the ex-Mariner struck out 31 percent of the time and didn’t get on base much. Defensively, he had a rough go at short (minus-8 DRS, minus-5.8 UZR) – a key reason the former No. 1 overall pick put up replacement-level production for the second consecutive year.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?
The Reds entered the offseason on the heels of their sixth straight sub-.500 showing, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams made it known at the end of the campaign that a seventh consecutive subpar effort wouldn’t be acceptable. The team’s goal when the winter began was to build its first playoff-level roster since 2013, and with most of its offseason heavy lifting likely done by now, there’s a case Cincinnati has done just that.
As we noted previously, the Reds have been one of the highest-spending teams in the National League in free agency. They’ve added two $64MM players – infielder Mike Moustakas and newly signed outfielder Nick Castellanos – as well as $21MM outfielder Shogo Akiyama (their first-ever Japanese player) and $15MM left-hander Wade Miley via the open market.
Now, the Reds’ position player cast – a group that finished last season 21st in WAR and 25th in runs – suddenly looks promising with Castellanos, Akiyama and some mix of Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino and Nick Senzel in the outfield, Joey Votto at first base, Moustakas at second and Eugenio Suarez at third. But there are questions in the group, including the health of the 49-home run man Suarez – who could miss the beginning of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery – and the strength of their catcher and shortstop positions. Both spots looked ripe for upgrades when the offseason began, but the Reds have so far stuck with Tucker Barnhart and Freddy Galvis, respectively, despite their interest in landing a much more formidable option at short. Moreover, there’s the possibility of a Senzel trade, which could provide a helpful return for one of the Reds’ weak spots, but Williams doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to deal the prized 24-year-old.
Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be a lot to worry about in the Reds’ starting staff. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Miley comprise an impressive one to five on paper, though Bauer did have more than a little bit of trouble preventing runs after the Reds acquired him from the Indians last July. The bullpen, although largely untouched this offseason, also boasts its share of stone-cold locks. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett are all returning after posting respectable or better numbers in 2019.
While it’s nice for the Reds that they’ve bettered their roster since last season’s 75-win effort, it’s also a boon that their division has seemingly taken steps back. The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019, but they haven’t done anything all that notable since, and they just lost their No. 1 free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, to the Braves. The Brewers – fresh off their second straight playoff season – have seen quite a few changes (good and bad) to their roster, including the losses of Moustakas and an even better free agent in catcher Yasmani Grandal. The Cubs have been quiet after a dismal finish to last season, and it’s still not out of the realm of possibility they’ll trade Kris Bryant or another important member of their roster before the new campaign rolls around. And then there’s the Pirates, who figure to be among the worst teams in the game this year.
Between the improvements they’ve made and the actions (or lack thereof) of their divisional foes, this may be the time for the Reds to return to relevance in the NL. The way their roster looks now, do you think they’re capable of doing so?
(Poll link for app users)
How many Reds wins do you expect?
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85-89 47% (11,040)
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80-84 26% (6,025)
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90 or more 22% (5,232)
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70-79 5% (1,202)
Total votes: 23,499
MLBTR Poll: Will The Dodgers Swing A Blockbuster Trade?
The Dodgers entered the winter in a gloomy state after a bitterly disappointing end to the 2019 season. But the team’s outlook remains exceptionally bright, with a compelling mix of established veterans, elite young talent, and quality role players along with the means to bolster and/or supplement that group as desired.
Despite the Dodgers’ regular-season and postseason successes — the team has seven-straight NL West titles and made it to the World Series in 2017 and 2018 — the lack of a ring and the stunning recent NLDS wash-out have left a lingering sense that something more or different could or even should be done. Reporting indicates there’s an internal a desire to shake things up in some manner, though obviously the front office isn’t inclined to reinvent the wheel.
It’s not unlike the sunny malaise experienced by the organization’s forebears in Brooklyn. Those Dodgers had an enormously successful decade without a crown (1945 to 1954) and fell short in the World Series four times in seven years (1947 to 1953). They waited ’til next year until finally breaking through in 1955.
The present-day Dodgers hope it won’t be quite that dramatic when they finally win it all. But there are quite a few more MLB teams and playoff rounds now than there used to be, making it harder to control randomness. That increases the appeal of prioritizing long-term competitiveness — the Nationals’ own recent breakthrough helps demonstrate this — but also perhaps speaks in favor of maximizing those clear chances that do arise to win it all.
The Dodgers have managed to walk an impressive line between long and short-term goals. Still, it hasn’t come together quite yet. With so many pieces already in place, the focus entering the present offseason was on adding true impact talent. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke of having a dozen-player wish list. While the club has made a few targeted investments in buy-low, high-upside pitchers, it has yet to swing a major deal for a star player.
Surely some or most of the L.A. targets are already off the board in one way or another — all of the top free agents have signed, of course — but there’s little doubt that a few remain available. We’ve long heard, especially, that the Dodgers maintain interest in superstars Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Francisco Lindor of the Indians. Cleveland ace Mike Clevinger is another who has come up in rumors. And it stands to reason there are a few other high-quality players of interest.
Dodgers president/CEO Stan Kasten said earlier this winter that the organization is “laser-focused” on winning a World Series after coming maddeningly close in recent years. “There are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it,” Kasten explained.
The clock is ticking but there’s time left before Spring Training opens. A mid-camp strike is less likely but perhaps not out of the realm of possibility. So … do you think the Dodgers will pull off a blockbuster before the start of the season?
(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
Will The Dodgers Pull Off A Blockbuster?
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Nope! 52% (9,031)
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They'll strike a deal with the Red Sox for Mookie 26% (4,582)
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They'll get Lindor and/or Clevinger from the Indians 11% (1,878)
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They'll find a match on some other star player 11% (1,874)
Total votes: 17,365
Free Agent Spending By Team: National League
With the clear exception of the still-unsigned Yasiel Puig, free agency is almost devoid of high-upside contributors at this point. The majority of players capable of securing guaranteed contracts have already come off the board, making this a good time to check in on which teams have spent the most and which clubs have paid the least via the open market. We’ve already gone through the same exercise for the American League, where the Yankees have returned to the top of the heap as the biggest spenders in their league and in the sport in general. Meanwhile, over in the Senior Circuit, reigning world champion Washington clearly isn’t resting on its laurels after a storybook playoff run…
Nationals: $316.75MM on 10 players (Stephen Strasburg, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Starlin Castro, Yan Gomes, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Zimmerman and Kyle Finnegan; financial details unclear for Finnegan; top 50 MLBTR signings: four)
Reds: $164MM on four players (Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley; top 50 signings: four)
Phillies: $132MM on two players (Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius; top 50 signings: two)
Braves: $116.25MM on nine players (Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud, Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Darren O’Day, Adeiny Hechavarria; top 50 signings: five)
Diamondbacks: $109.65MM on five players (Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Hector Rondon, Stephen Vogt and Junior Guerra; top 50 signings: two)
Brewers: $48.38MM on eight players (Avisail Garcia, Josh Lindblom, Justin Smoak, Brett Anderson, Eric Sogard, Alex Claudio, Ryon Healy and Deolis Guerra; financial details unclear for Healy and Guerra; top 50 signings: two)
Padres: $48MM on three players (Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Pierce Johnson; top 50 signings: three)
Mets: $24.35MM on four players (Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Brad Brach; top 50 signings: three)
Marlins: $23.855MM on five players (Corey Dickerson, Brandon Kintzler, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce and Yimi Garcia; financial details unclear for Joyce; top 50 signings: one)
Giants: $17.775MM on four players (Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Tony Watson and Tyler Anderson; top 50 signings: one)
Dodgers: $15.25MM on three players (Blake Treinen, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson; top 50 signings: one)
Cardinals: $15MM on three players (Adam Wainwright, Kwang-hyun Kim and Matt Wieters; top 50 signings: one)
Cubs: $2.5MM on three players (Steven Souza Jr., Jeremy Jeffress and Ryan Tepera; top 50 signings: zero)
Pirates: Signed OF Guillermo Heredia and C Luke Maile (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)
Rockies: Signed RHP Jose Mujica (financial details unclear; top 50 signings: zero)
And Then There Was One
By definition, there’ll always be one final major free agent to come off the board. It’s a lonely spot, perhaps, but also one where the market is yours and yours alone. Things rarely shake out quite as might originally have been hoped, but neither does last-man-standing status mean the money has necessarily dried up. We saw two fairly large contracts handed out in the middle of the 2019 season, including a multi-year pact for Craig Kimbrel.
MLBTR’s top 50 list has been picked over rather thoroughly. There are three unsigned players, including a solid relief arm (Pedro Strop) and useful utilityman (Brock Holt). But if we’re being honest, there were others just off the list who could make roughly similar free agent cases. We predicted both players to receive fairly modest guarantees.
So with Nick Castellanos leaving the board yesterday, we can now official declare: this year, the Big Name Yet To Sign is Yasiel Puig. His days as a true star with the Dodgers are distant memories now, but Puig has mostly been productive outside of a poor stretch with the Reds to open the 2019 season. He hit about twenty percent above the league-average rate in the prior two campaigns and finished with a solid run late last year after being dealt to the Indians. Depending upon one’s preferred means of measuring and valuing defense, Puig was a 3-4 WAR player in 2017 and 2018. He’s only just turned 29; perhaps his downtick in 2019 was just a blip.
On the one hand, this isn’t much of a surprise. Much like the three other young corner outfielders on this year’s market, Puig was an awfully tough player to gauge. All the more so in his case … not only does Puig come with some performance questions, but he’s a notably eccentric player whose occasional hijinks may not be fully welcomed by all organizations. But this was hardly inevitable. Puig also has long looked like an intriguing buy-low candidate — one that a value-hunting team might well have targeted from the outset.
Whatever the background, we now have a much clearer picture of the Puig situation than when we predicted he’d take down a one-year, $8MM deal when the market opened. We’ve now seen Castellanos (four years, $64MM), Ozuna (one year, $18MM), and Avisail Garcia (two years, $20MM) set a market that had been ill-defined. And multiple teams have filled openings, of course, even beyond the clubs that inked those players (the Reds, Braves, and Brewers). The Diamondbacks and Marlins have installed multiple outfielders; the White Sox seem to have filled out their lineup.
But that’s not to say that it’s now all that obvious where Puig ought to land. The Tigers — our guess at the outset of the winter — still make sense for all the same reasons. But it’s also possible the club will prefer to preserve its roster flexibility to jump on some intriguing players that shake loose early in 2020. A return to the Indians still makes some amount of sense if the club elects to add back some salary. That the Cleveland org went out and got Puig last year adds to the plausibility.
There are other teams worth considering as possibilities. The Rangers have pursued a righty bat to join a lefty-heavy outfield mix, though whether they’ve got interest in Puig specifically isn’t clear. It’s wild to imagine it, but the Giants are certainly an on-paper fit for the same essential reasons that the Tigers are. You could argue that the Orioles should be as well, even if they already have a few guys on hand that they’d like to give a look to. And why not the Rockies? The club isn’t spending much, but could perhaps find a way to make one bet and could really use the upside. Puig’s right-handed bat would provide much-needed lineup balance.
And what about teams back-filling after trades? The Pirates could be involved in theory, though they’re mostly in need of center field capability and are surely wary of off-field (or on-field) shenanigans after a trying 2019 season. The Mariners previously dropped Domingo Santana and aren’t exactly laden with established talent. And hey, what about the Red Sox? If they end up dealing Mookie Betts, an upside play might be just the ticket.
If we consider timeshare possibilities, the Angels make some sense. The club needs to be willing to accept some risk to turn the corner. Puig could pair with Brian Goodwin while the club waits for Jo Adell to force his way up. The Marlins can still consider Puig as part of a revamped lineup mix, even if they aren’t really set up to install him as an everyday presence. If there’s still an avenue for the Rays to jump in on Puig, it’s a narrow one now that Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena are on hand. But the Tampa Bay organization can surely figure a way to shift things around if it sees a chance to shoehorn in a value opportunity.
It takes some squinting and some balancing of tradeoffs even to imagine a fit for Puig. Just how specific teams feel about the polarizing player, and just what situation he prefers, will no doubt dictate the outcome. But there are plenty of theoretical possibilities.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Starling Marte Trade
They’re throwing a Marte party in the desert. The Diamondbacks on Monday acquired center fielder Starling Marte from the Pirates in a blockbuster trade that saw shortstop prospect Liover Peguero, young righty Brennan Malone and $250K in international money go to Pittsburgh in return. Arizona now happens to have the top two Martes in the majors in Starling and Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks’ primary center fielder from 2019 who broke out as a star and will now occupy second base most of the time.
For the Diamondbacks, an 85-win team from last year that’s trying to give the Dodgers a better fight in the NL West, the addition of Starling Marte is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. The D-backs’ previous pickups came via the open market, where they signed left-hander Madison Bumgarner, right fielder Kole Calhoun, relievers Hector Rondon and Junior Guerra, and catcher Stephen Vogt.
There are concerns with Marte’s game, including iffy defensive metrics, a past PED suspension and a career-long aversion to drawing walks. Still, he’s unquestionably one of the most valuable center fielders in the sport. The 31-year-old has accounted for at least 3.0 fWAR in each of his six full seasons, and is coming off his second straight 20-20 effort. Marte posted a .295/.342/.503 line with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases across in 586 trips to the plate.
Of course, we’d be remiss not to mention that Marte’s contract only makes him more appealing from Arizona’s standpoint. He’ll earn a fairly economical $11.5MM this year and could make $12.5MM next season if the Diamondbacks exercise his club option in lieu of a $1MM buyout. Assuming Marte continues his steady production in 2020, picking up that option will be a no-brainer for the team.
In Pittsburgh’s case, Marte’s age, waning control and the Pirates’ rebuilding status all combined to send him out of the Steel City after months of trade rumors. It was an understandable decision on new Pirates general manager Ben Cherington’s part to cash in the Marte chip, though there’s dissatisfaction in Pittsburgh that the team’s ultra-low payroll shrunk even more as a result of the deal. The Pirates could put at least some money back into their roster by finding a Marte replacement before the season, which is Cherington’s plan, but they’re unlikely to find a player of his caliber.
Regardless of how the Pirates’ payroll looks in the wake of Marte’s exit, the club did land a couple promising farmhands in Peguero and Malone. Both 19-year-olds are a ways away from major league opportunities, having not gotten past the low-A level yet, but they were seen as two of Arizona’s most intriguing prospects. Two months ago, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked Peguero fifth in the Diamondbacks’ system, comparing him to former D-back Jean Segura. The flamethrowing Malone checked in at No. 10 on the list, meanwhile, with Longenhagen and McDaniel writing that the 33rd overall pick from last year’s draft has “a mid-rotation starter look.”
Thanks to the youth of Peguero and Malone, we’ll have to wait for a while to see how this trade pans out. At first glance, though, how do you like it for both teams? Weigh in below …
(Arizona poll link for app users)
Grade the Marte trade for Arizona
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B 45% (8,203)
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A 40% (7,297)
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C 11% (2,052)
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D 2% (421)
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F 2% (358)
Total votes: 18,331
(Pittsburgh poll link for app users)
Grade the Marte trade for Pittsburgh
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C 34% (5,752)
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B 29% (4,951)
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D 17% (2,850)
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A 12% (2,103)
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F 8% (1,360)
Total votes: 17,016