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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds recently wrapped up a 75-win season, their sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign. President of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall have seen enough. They have every intention of assembling a playoff-caliber roster for 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Most of the Reds’ focus last offseason went to their starting staff, and two of the three key acquisitions they made in that regard couldn’t have worked out much better. Picking up Sonny Gray from the Yankees has been a brilliant move thus far. Tanner Roark, whom the Reds landed in a trade with the Nationals, was effective for Cincinnati for a few months before the out-of-contention club flipped him to Oakland in July. Alex Wood wasn’t healthy enough to pitch for most of the season, so acquiring him from the Dodgers was the one starting addition that didn’t work out for Williams and Krall. But the two front office bigwigs swung a massive trade for then-Indian Trevor Bauer prior to the July 31 deadline, meaning the Reds are now slated to get a full year from him alongside Gray, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s unclear who will primarily occupy the last spot on Cincy’s staff (perhaps Wood or another free agent on a one-year deal), but it’s obvious the rotation is no longer a major concern for the club.

The Reds’ main problem at the moment seems to be their offense, which finished 25th in the majors in both runs and wRC+ this year. Although he surprisingly struggled this season, first baseman Joey Votto isn’t going anywhere. Neither is third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who fell one home run shy of the 50 mark.

Aside from Votto and Suarez, the Reds’ position player cast certainly isn’t etched in stone. Nick Senzel will also start somewhere, whether it’s second or center field (where he played in 2019), and his flexibility will afford the Reds the opportunity to shop for help at either of those spots. The upcoming class of free-agent center fielders looks quite weak, however, so unless the Reds swing a trade for someone like Starling Marte of the Pirates or Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox, odds are they’ll be adding second base help over center field aid. Fortunately for Cincy, free agency will be teeming with passable second basemen once the offseason rolls around. Of course, we’d be remiss to ignore that the Reds have a few in-house second base possibilities besides Senzel. Jose Peraza, Derek Dietrich and Freddy Galvis led the club’s second basemen in starts this year, and all are controllable through next season. However, Peraza and Dietrich look like possible non-tender candidates, while Galvis has a $5.5MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2020. Even if the Reds keep Galvis, his track record indicates he wouldn’t make for more than a mediocre-at-best starter at either second or shortstop.

Short, like second, appears to be a position the Reds could give some attention in the coming months. The trouble is that free agency won’t be loaded with obvious solutions there. Jose Iglesias, who started the vast majority of the Reds’ season at the position, is due to hit free agency. The Reds could easily re-sign the defensively adept, light-hitting Iglesias for what surely wouldn’t be a sizable sum, but they’d be wise to hunt for a better alternative first. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds seek a reunion with Yankees free agent-to-be Didi Gregorius, whom Cincy signed as an international free agent back in 2007. Otherwise, would the Reds pursue a trade for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? They’re a pair of star shortstops who are likely to come up in trade rumors during the next few months (the speculation has already started in regards to Lindor).

While the Reds could rekindle their relationship with Gregorius, the same holds true for pending free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal. Clearly the premier catcher set to hit the market in the next couple weeks, the Brewers’ Grandal was the 12th overall pick of the Reds back in 2010. Grandal never wound up playing a game for the Reds, but he’d be a massive upgrade now over the combination of Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali. That said, signing the soon-to-be 31-year-old Grandal at this point would likely mean forking over $60MM or more in guarantees. If the Reds aren’t willing to go that far, and if they do try to add a somewhat high-profile backstop to upgrade over Barnhart, they could wind up with anyone from the affordable trio of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos in free agency.

The way the Reds map out their 2020 outfield will depend in part on their plans for Senzel. As mentioned earlier, though, finding an obvious center field upgrade in free agency will be difficult. It’ll be less of an arduous task in the corner outfield, where ex-Red Yasiel Puig, Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson are all on the cusp of becoming free agents. The Reds traded Puig in July as part of the Bauer deal, though Krall expressed interest in a Puig extension shortly before that.

Whether the Reds bring back Puig or find one or two players from the outside, their corner outfield does look as if it should be a priority. Cincinnati has in-house possibilities in Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Phillip Ervin and Josh VanMeter, granted. However, they all come with warts. The left-handed Winker was just about unplayable this year versus same-handed pitchers; Aquino came back to reality after a historically remarkable start; Ervin’s decent overall numbers were buoyed by an unsustainable first few months; and VanMeter didn’t produce much outside of a red-hot July.

Meanwhile, the Reds’ bullpen seems to be much less of an issue than their outfield, though it’s still an area they (like just about every other team) could attempt to improve.. Raisel Iglesias has been a prime trade candidate in the past, but if Cincy’s as bent on pushing for a playoff spot next year as it has indicated, he seems unlikely to go anywhere this winter. So, he’ll stay a key member of a unit that will also welcome back Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Matt Bowman, while Cody Reed, Lucas Sims and Joel Kuhnel could also be among in-house arms pushing for innings. Kevin Gausman, whom the Reds claimed from the Braves in August, may be a part of the unit again, too (or even vie for the Reds’ fifth starter job); however, considering his lofty arbitration projection for 2020, it seems more likely the Reds will non-tender Gausman.

Deciding Gausman’s future is one of the more immediate tasks on the Reds’ plate as the offseason nears its official start. If the Reds do let Gausman go, it’ll further increase spending space for a team that’s all but guaranteed to boast a franchise-record payroll in 2020. The Reds opened this season with an outlay just over $126.6MM, and Williams has said that number will go up next year as the club tries to bring an end to its long-running playoff drought.

“The goal for us now, all we’re talking about is the postseason. That’s what matters,” Williams declared a few weeks ago. “That’s the goal next year. It’s not taking incremental steps in a rebuild. It’s about the postseason.”

Judging by the Reds’ win-now attitude, they could be among the majors’ busiest teams during the upcoming offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The rebuilding Marlins will continue to add low-cost veterans and potential hidden-gem younger players as they continue to assemble what they hope will eventually be a winning core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $22MM through 2020 ($16MM player option can vest for 2021)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10.25MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $5.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Marlins achieved one major bit of winter business before the regular season even ended, inking manager Don Mattingly to a two-year extension with a mutual option for the 2022 season.  The longest-tenured skipper in Marlins history will continue his work mentoring the young faces in Miami’s dugout, though given the contract’s length, it’s an open question as to whether Mattingly will get a chance to manage a Marlins team that is actually trying to win.

As the Marlins come off a 105-loss season, some pieces have started to come into place in South Beach.  Brian Anderson has two seasons of quality results under his belt, and he’ll line up as the everyday option at either third base or (less likely) in right field, allowing the Fish a bit of flexibility in their offseason shopping.  The newly-extended Miguel Rojas and top prospect Isan Diaz can handle middle infield duties, though Diaz is still getting his feet wet and could stand to be supplemented. Jorge Alfaro is still something of a work in progress, but he’ll continue to function as Miami’s everyday catcher. The Marlins also netted some good results from such unheralded pickups as Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez, and Jon Berti.  In the rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith showed some potential, though Smith’s production tailed off in the second half.

The larger question is, as with Mattingly, whether any of these players could conceivably be part of the next winning Marlins team, given that the Fish still look to have at least two more rebuilding years ahead of them.  This wouldn’t be a case of cutting payroll since almost every member of Miami’s roster is a pre-arbitration player, though CEO Derek Jeter and president of baseball operations Michael Hill could look to turn any single one of the club’s notable performers into a younger/higher-upside player (or players) who could help the team down the road.

To that end, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Anderson, Alcantara, Alfaro, or Smith (who already drew some attention at the trade deadline) dealt if the right offer came along.  On the other hand, after so much roster churn in recent years, the Marlins’ front office could also see value in some simple continuity as part of the building process, plus 2020 is another year for the team to see what they really have in several of these still-developing players.

That question also extends to some Marlins who have yet to make the leap.  Diaz struggled over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, though Miami will give its hopeful second baseman-of-the-future plenty of time to develop.  The same might not be true of Lewis Brinson, who is entering his final option year and (through 709 PA) has shown no sign of being able to hit MLB pitching.  Brinson’s struggles have only been magnified by the fact that he was the headliner of the prospect package the Marlins received from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade — in fact, it could be argued that each of the three other players (Diaz, Jordan Yamamoto, Monte Harrison) in the deal have now surpassed Brinson in importance to the Marlins’ future plans.

While the Marlins would obviously love to see Brinson finally break out in 2020, the club will look to add at least one veteran outfielder to help carry the load.  Cooper, Ramirez, Austin Dean, and utilityman Berti will also be in the outfield mix, and reinforcements could be on the way relatively early in the season if minor leaguers Harrison and Jesus Sanchez play well at Triple-A.  Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson/Trevor Richards trade last July, will be looking to regain some of his prospect stock after a disappointing 2019 season.

Cooper could be deployed at first base, or the Marlins could opt to add a more proven bat at the position to upgrade one of the league’s worst offenses.  Free agents like Justin Smoak or Mitch Moreland wouldn’t break the bank, or a multi-positional player (e.g. Howie Kendrick, Brock Holt) could be penciled in at first base but really move around the diamond to help at various spots.  If Diaz were to struggle again, for instance, a Kendrick or a Holt could end up seeing more time at second base.

In terms of adding a veteran presence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Fish re-sign some of their veteran additions from last season.  Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson have both expressed an interest in returning to the Marlins, while Martin Prado is a beloved figure in Miami who would also seemingly have a place as a bench piece, if he decides to continue playing.

Even though Miami will buy out Starlin Castro’s option, a case could be made that he could also be re-signed to an inexpensive one-year deal to play third base (and provide second base cover for Diaz), with Anderson moving into right field until the younger outfielders were ready.  Castro is coming off an unusual season that saw him post a dreadful .571 OPS over the first three months (345 PA), only to then deliver a .909 OPS over his final 331 plate appearances. The veteran clearly has something left in the tank and will be only 30 years old on Opening Day.  The more likely scenario, however, is that the Marlins will let Castro leave after two seasons.

With Prado and Castro both off the books, the Marlins have only $33.625MM in payroll committed to guaranteed salaries and projected arbitration salaries, and that number could drop even moreso if the Fish choose to non-tender Adam Conley or JT Riddle.  Given the organization’s usual M.O., it’s hard to project that the Marlins could spend the extra money on a higher tier of free agent, but the financial flexibility is there if Jeter and Hill see an intriguing opportunity. Notably, there are a few relatively youthful corner outfielders kicking around that may not all find the kinds of opportunities they are hoping for with other organizations.

One tactic the Marlins could explore is taking on an undesirable contract from another team, with the other club throwing in a couple of interesting prospects to sweeten the pot.  Such a bad-contract swap is also the only way the Marlins could possibly unload Wei-Yin Chen, who is single-handedly responsible for almost two-thirds of Miami’s current payroll, though parting with their own young talent to further pare an already barebones payroll probably won’t make sense for the Fish.  If Chen can’t be dealt, the team might simply release him to make extra roster space.

Alcantara and Smith headline the rotation, with Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Robert Dugger, and potentially Jose Urena in the mix for the other starting jobs.  Urena finished an injury-shortened 2019 season pitching out of the bullpen in September once he returned from the injured list.  Given that he was a solid workhorse in both 2017 and 2018, the Marlins will likely stretch him out as a starter again in Spring Training before considering more relief work.  Alternatively, due to the fact that he’s only controlled through the 2021 season, Urena could also be a candidate to be moved this winter, although Miami would hardly be selling at a high point.

There’s plenty of room in this young rotation for a veteran innings eater or bounce-back candidate, and if the Marlins were to spend some money, this might be the most logical spot.  Free agents like Alex Wood, Tanner Roark or Matt Harvey could all fit, or the club could look into signing Miami native Gio Gonzalez.

Any veteran arm signed for either the rotation or bullpen could also double as a possible trade chip come the deadline, as was the case in 2019 with Sergio Romo, who was flipped to the Twins last July.  Since Romo is a free agent again, the Marlins could look into a reunion, if they want an experienced closer to handle the ninth inning rather than Ryne Stanek.  Also picked up in that Rays trade last July, Stanek didn’t pitch well as a Marlin and has continued to struggle when used as anything other than an opener; Stanek has a 2.71 ERA over 83 career innings as an opener and a 4.93 ERA in a more conventional relief capacity.  Given these unusual numbers, one wonders if the Marlins would consider deploying an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for one of their rotation spots, with Stanek kicking off the game before another pitcher handles the majority of the early work.

Another last-place finish is likely awaiting the Marlins in a tough National League East next season, but there is opportunity this winter for the team to get creative in figuring out ways to continue planting the seeds for its next winning team.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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After posting only a 29-30 record through June 2, the Indians played .621 baseball the rest of the way but couldn’t catch up to the Twins in the AL Central, or to the Athletics and Rays in the AL wild card race.  It was a tough result for a team in “win-now” mode, and now the Tribe will have to retool in order to take advantage while their (perhaps rapidly closing?) competitive window is still open.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $37.25MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $17.5MM through 2020 (club option will be exercised; Indians also have $18MM club option for 2021 with $1MM buyout)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM through 2020 ($17.5MM club option for 2021, $500K buyout)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $17.25MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $7MM through 2020 ($10MM club option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $3.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM club option for 2021, $450K buyout)
  • Oliver Perez, RP: $3MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking at the position players, Cleveland has a very nice core group of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado, Roberto Perez, and Franmil Reyes heading into 2020.  Jordan Luplow’s huge numbers against left-handed pitching will merit at least a platoon role in either corner outfield slot, and since the Tribe’s outfield situation is still rather unsettled outside of Mercado in center field, Luplow has a decent shot of winning an everyday job in Spring Training.

It also remains to be seen if Reyes could be an option in right field.  Though Reyes has shown very little fielding aptitude over his young career, the Indians would certainly like to see if Reyes can be a passable option on at least a part-time basis before relegating him to DH-only duty at age 24.  One would also think that the Indians would prefer to keep the designated hitter position open so multiple players could be rotated through DH days in order to keep everyone fresh.

Assuming Reyes will mostly be a DH in 2020, that leaves Luplow, Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, and Bradley Zimmer battling for playing time in the corner outfield slots, with Tyler Naquin entering the mix sometime between mid-April or mid-June as he recovers from a torn ACL.  Prospect Daniel Johnson (acquired from the Nationals in last offseason’s Yan Gomes trade) is also knocking on the door after a big season at Triple-A.

It isn’t a stellar collection of names on paper, but there’s enough promise here that Cleveland might prefer to see what it has rather than pursue an everyday corner outfielder (like, for instance, a re-signed Yasiel Puig).  In particular, the Indians are hoping that Bauers can start to blossom after a disappointing first year in Cleveland, while Zimmer is looking to get his career on track after missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 due to shoulder surgery.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians sign a veteran to a minor league deal for extra depth, or perhaps a multi-position utility type to fill holes all over the diamond.

Ramirez has said he wants to remain at one single position in 2020 rather than alternate between second and third base, though he is open to playing either position, giving the Indians some flexibility as they look for infield help.  It doesn’t seem like longtime second baseman Jason Kipnis will be brought back at a lower price tag after the Tribe declined his $16.5MM option, leaving the team with Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, and Yu Chang as internal candidates.

Needless to say, the Indians don’t have the payroll space to shop at the very top of the free agent infield market (i.e. Anthony Rendon or old friend Josh Donaldson).  And the presence of top third base prospect Nolan Jones will further preclude any type of truly long-term signing, as Jones could potentially make his MLB debut as early as the second half of the 2020 season.

Players like Howie Kendrick and Eric Sogard are coming off big seasons yet could likely be had on one-year contracts.  Along those same lines, productive veterans like Starlin Castro, Brock Holt, Brian Dozier, or former Clevelander Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued in free agency.

Depending on how much the Tribe are willing to spend, Mike Moustakas seems like a realistic option.  The Moose has had trouble finding even a multi-year contract the last two offseasons, despite still swinging an above-average bat and slugging 101 homers over the last three seasons.  Since Moustakas is likely to decline his end of an $11MM mutual option with the Brewers for 2020, a modest two-year offer for maybe only a bit more than that $11MM average annual value should get his attention.

Such a signing would essentially just replace Kipnis’ declined salary commitment with Moustakas — certainly an upgrade on the field, though perhaps not a move the cost-conscious Indians are looking to make.  Spending cuts were a big factor in last year’s offseason moves and even into the year, as evidenced by the trade deadline blockbuster with the Reds and Padres that saw Trevor Bauer moved to Cincinnati, and Reyes, Yasiel Puig, young pitching prospect Logan Allen and two other minor leaguers come to Cleveland.

The biggest looming payroll question, of course, is Lindor’s status as both the Tribe’s best player and biggest trade chip.  Lindor is projected to earn $16.7MM via arbitration next season, a raise of $6.15MM from his 2019 salary, and putting him on a likely path to a salary in the $23MM range for 2021.  Indians owner Paul Dolan’s already-infamous comment from last March that Cleveland fans should “enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens” with a potential extension doesn’t overly optimistic about the chances of Lindor staying in a Tribe uniform for the long term.  Dolan’s interview also cited a lack of bonus revenue from postseason games as a reason for last winter’s payroll-lessening measures (the 2018 Indians had just one postseason home game during a three-game sweep at the Astros’ hands in the ALDS), and thus a spending increase doesn’t seem likely coming off a season that saw the Indians miss the playoffs entirely.

Having a superstar like Lindor on the books for roughly $40MM over a two-year span is still a bargain even for a smaller-market team like the Indians, of course, so there’s certainly value in keeping him around.  But given how the Tribe shopped Bauer and Corey Kluber last offseason before eventually moving Bauer at the deadline, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office at least discuss Lindor with other teams this winter if for no other reason to see what a rival could potentially offer.  Needless to say, the Indians would want a haul of MLB-ready talent and prospects to move the All-Star shortstop, but if Cleveland finds a team willing to meet that price, a Lindor trade can’t be ruled out. The Dodgers have already come up as a potential fit for Lindor.

A Lindor trade would be the kind of franchise-altering move that could potentially address all of Cleveland’s offseason needs in one fell swoop.  Dealing Kluber could have brought back a similar package last offseason, though the former two-time AL Cy Young Award winner’s trade value isn’t nearly as high in the wake of a season that saw Kluber make just seven starts due to a fractured forearm and then an oblique strain.

Despite this lost year, Kluber’s $17.5MM club option was still exercised by the Indians.  Letting him go for nothing wouldn’t have been too logical, given the chances that Kluber could quite possibly bounce back and look like his old self.  A Kluber trade can’t be entirely ruled out this offseason, just in case an aggressive team is willing to offer something at least in the neighborhood of a trade package befitting an ace-level pitcher, which would leave Cleveland in an interesting conundrum.

Starting pitching, after all, is the Tribe’s biggest strength.  Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger project as strong front-of-the-rotation arms, with Carlos Carrasco looking to return after battling leukemia last summer, rookies Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale both making strong first impressions in 2019, Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez on hand as further depth options, and Allen approaching big league readiness.  If Kluber and Carrasco both return to form, the Indians will be left with the enviable problem of having almost too much pitching, though that depth will almost surely be necessary given the inevitability of injuries or downturns in performance.

An argument could be made that the Indians could turn one of their younger pitchers into a trade chip, though that seems a little less likely given how controllable young arms are such an especially big asset to a lower-payroll team like Cleveland.  The Tribe might also want that extra depth in the fold given the uncertainty around Kluber and Carrasco heading into 2020.  One pitcher who likely won’t be back is Danny Salazar, as two straight years of virtual inactivity will make him a non-tender candidate.

The starting pitching depth could be translated into extra bullpen help, and since the Indians’ relief corps is already pretty solid, any reliever shopping this winter is more likely to take the form of minor league signings.  There probably isn’t quite enough depth that the Tribe would feel totally secure in trading Brad Hand, and a $7MM salary isn’t onerous for a closer of Hand’s caliber.

Ramirez and Carrasco are the only two Cleveland players on guaranteed contracts for 2021, and several big names (Santana, Kluber, Hand, Perez) are on club options for that season.  Though Lindor and many other key talents will still be in their arbitration or pre-arb years, 2020 stands a pivotal year for this core group given the amount of roster churn that could be on the horizon next winter.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have shown a lot of creativity in assembling this roster and supplementing it with a strong pipeline of young players, especially pitchers.  Yet the Twins’ emergence in the AL Central has narrowed the Indians’ margin for error rather considerably, and another missed postseason could lead to many more tough decisions.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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While this season represented another year in which the Athletics fell short of the ultimate goal, it would still be difficult to call it anything but a success. The low-budget franchise overcame multiple key injuries in its rotation to amass 97 wins for the second straight year and earn its second consecutive playoff berth. Unfortunately for Oakland, it once again couldn’t get past the wild-card game. The A’s will return the vast majority of their important contributors in 2020, however, and even though they’re probably in for a somewhat quiet winter, there’s a good chance they’ll remain among the AL’s most talented teams next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

As was the case in 2018, this year’s Athletics overcame a rotation that wasn’t anywhere close to full strength to book a trip to the playoffs. Emergent ace Frankie Montas’ breakout year all but ended in late June because of an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs; Sean Manaea barely factored in after undergoing shoulder surgery in September 2018; and promising young starters Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Jharel Cotton missed most or all of the season with injuries. When Luzardo and Puk were healthy enough to pitch toward the end of the year, they worked exclusively out of the A’s bullpen.

Going forward, the A’s can likely expect Montas, Manaea, Luzardo and Puk to occupy four of five spots in their season-opening 2020 rotation. Cotton could vie for a spot, but he doesn’t seem to stand as strong a chance to win one. If healthy, though, he could be a solid depth piece for an Oakland staff that’ll also have Mike Fiers and Chris Bassitt among its main options. The sudden overflow of capable-looking starters means the A’s probably won’t pursue starters with much gusto over the winter. Brett Anderson and in-season additions Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark each helped spur the A’s most recent playoff season, though they all appear likely to walk in free agency. Even Anderson, a longtime and much-respected Athletic, seems to think his time with the franchise is done because of the copious amount of viable starters they have on hand.

Oakland seems to be facing a larger number of questions in its bullpen, where it’ll have to decide on a couple options before getting to other business. Rejecting lefty Jake Diekman’s $5.75MM option in favor of a $500K buyout seems as if it’ll happen; meantime, it appears to be a straightforward call to say yes to workhorse righty Yusmeiro Petit’s $5.5MM option. Assuming Petit sticks around, he’ll stay in a group that’ll also return the suddenly superb Liam Hendriks, Joakim Soria, Ryan Buchter and Lou Trivino. After that, the unit’s makeup doesn’t seem to be set in stone. Some member(s) from the A’s overflow of starters may be part of the group, as could J.B. Wendelken. Blake Treinen had an all-world season in 2018, but he fell off a cliff during an injury-limited ’19 and now looks like a strong non-tender candidate. All that said, adding to the bullpen (for what figures to be a low-cost, short-term contract) may be a priority this offseason for the A’s. Bear in mind that they have brought in at least one free-agent reliever on a guaranteed contract in each of the past few winters (Petit, Soria, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Madson and John Axford since 2016).

Meanwhile, the A’s position player alignment looks set for the most part. Third baseman Matt Chapman, first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Marcus Semien are bedrock in the infield (the only question is whether any of them will land contract extensions). Designated hitter Khris Davis’ production plummeted during an injury-affected season, but the money left on his contract means he isn’t going to vacate his role. Underrated standouts Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano make for two-thirds of a starting outfield, though it’s not yet clear where they’ll mainly line up next season.

Either Canha or Laureano could be the A’s No. 1 center fielder or wind up starting in a corner in 2020. Stephen Piscotty (whom Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has suggested may be a trade candidate), Robbie Grossman (potential non-tender), Chad Pinder (another possible non-tender), Seth Brown, Skye Bolt and Dustin Fowler might also be in the mix for spots. However, the A’s could go out of house for what they deem to be a more appealing choice. Slusser and Melissa Lockard of The Athletic have named lefty-hitting center fielder as a potential priority for the club, which may mean adding someone like Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton or Jon Jay in free agency or even swinging a trade for Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr. (though he might be too pricey for Oakland). In the corners, while free agents-to-be Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos will likely be too rich for the A’s blood, though the team might be able to afford Yasiel Puig, Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia or Brett Gardner. And let’s not forget ex-Athletic Ben Zobrist, who’d be able to help fill their 2B/OF needs in one fell swoop.

Whether they come away with Zobrist or someone else, second base does look like a position Oakland may choose to address from outside. Jurickson Profar’s probably on the outs, whether by trade or non-tender, after he fell flat in 2019. Free agency looks as if it’ll feature several affordable players who could prove to be upgrades over what the A’s got from Profar this year. Aside from Zobrist, Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Scooter Gennett, Brock Holt, Howie Kendrick, Jason Kipnis, Jonathan Schoop, former Athletic Eric Sogard and Neil Walker should all sign affordable short-term deals. Otherwise, if the A’s pass on that group (and if they don’t keep Profar or make a trade), they’ll have the option of handing the reins to some combination of Pinder, Sheldon Neuse, Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo.

The last spot we’ll address is the catcher position, which looks as if it’ll belong to Sean Murphy going forward. One of the majors’ highest-ranked prospects, the 25-year-old Murphy thrived at the Triple-A level in 2019 and did the same in the bigs after a September call-up. At least offensively, Murphy was far more productive than any catcher the A’s used regularly, including No. 1 choice Josh Phegley. The team’s now facing a decision on Phegley, whom it could non-tender now that Murphy – also a right-handed hitter – is in the fold. If Phegley does go, it would make sense for the A’s to pursue a lefty-swinging backup to pair with Murphy. There will be a few available in free agency in ex-A’s favorite Stephen Vogt, recent A’s target Matt Wieters and Alex Avila.

With Oakland already pushing up against this year’s $92MM-plus opening-day payroll, it doesn’t appear the club’s in for an especially active offseason. However, A’s executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst don’t necessarily need to oversee an aggressive winter. They’ve already built a quality roster that looks as if it’ll contend again in 2020.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates had a Murphy’s Law season in 2019, finishing what they hoped would be a competitive campaign with a 69-93 record that landed them in the NL Central cellar. Thanks to their ever-present payroll issues, they’ll face several tough decisions this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $22MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 option; contract also contains 2023 option)
  • Felipe Vazquez, LHP: $13.5MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 options; contract also contains 2023 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Starling Marte, CF: $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)
  • Chris Archer, RHP: $9MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)

Free Agents

Like more than one quarter of the teams in baseball, the Pirates’ offseason began with the search for a new manager. Clint Hurdle, just days after publicly stating that he’d been assured of his return in 2020, was fired with two years remaining on his contract. The Pirates, who haven’t been in the market for a new manager in a decade, have reportedly interviewed Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, Athletics bench coach Ryan Christensen and Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp — each of whom has managed in the minors but not the big leagues. Former Rangers manager Jeff Banister is reported to be under consideration, too, as are Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay, Diamondbacks director of player development Mike Bell and Astros bench coach Joe Espada.

A new team president will need to be brought into the fold as well following this week’s announcement that Frank Coonelly will depart after 13 seasons. That search won’t be as exhaustive, it seems, as the Bucs are reportedly set to name a replacement as soon as next Monday.

The departure of Hurdle came not only after another disappointing season in terms of wins and losses but on the heels of reported discord in the clubhouse. Kyle Crick injured his finger in a fistfight that broke out with closer Felipe Vazquez, but that was only the beginning of the team’s Vazquez troubles.

A bombshell report in September brought forth charges of statutory sexual assault of a minor against Vazquez. A criminal complaint released by Westmoreland County shortly thereafter revealed, even more abhorrently, that during conversations with the police, Vazquez admitted to prior sexual contact with the alleged victim — a minor. Precisely what will happen with the remaining $13.5MM he’s owed by the Pirates will depend on the course of criminal and immigration proceedings along with any ensuing league discipline. Whether or not the contract will be voided entirely isn’t known; what is clear is that Vazquez will not receive his salary while he’s not a member of the roster. Given what has been reported to this point, it’s difficult to imagine him pitching for the the Pirates again — or for any other MLB team.

The altercation between Crick and Vazquez wasn’t the only instance of a behind-the-scenes clubhouse problem in 2019, though. Setup man Keone Kela was suspended by the team after a reported altercation with bullpen coach Euclides Rojas. Kela had also previously butted heads with and been disciplined by the Rangers, who traded him to the Pirates in 2018. Still just 26 years old, Kela has struck out 30 percent of the hitters he has faced in the Majors and is clearly a high-end talent, but he’ll likely be on the trade block this winter. The Pirates, after all, also explored the possibility of moving him back in July. That series of off-field issues won’t do his trade value any favors, but Kela, who is entering his final season of club control, is an obvious change-of-scenery candidate.

As is typical with the low-budget Pirates, there will be more trade scenarios to explore, but the extent to which they’re motivated to make a deal is dependent on where ownership sets the payroll threshold. Pittsburgh opened 2019 with a meager $74.8MM on the books, and at present they’re projected to come in around $71.4MM (assuming no non-tenders and assuming the options of both Starling Marte and Chris Archer are exercised). Take away Vazquez’s $5.75MM salary but add in another $6-7MM to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players, and the Buccos are close to the payroll with which they opened last season after an 82-79 finish. Despite their dip in record, the Pirates did somehow manage to slightly outdraw their 2018 total of 1.464 million fans (1.491 million). However, they also still ranked 14th in 2019 National League attendance — ahead of only the Marlins.

Pittsburgh’s Opening Day payroll topped $90MM each season from 2015-17 before sliding to $86MM in 2018 and the aforementioned $74.8MM in 2019. Put another way, the Bucs can afford to increase payroll. Ownership’s willingness to do so in a season with diminished expectations of winning, however, is far from a given. So, if payroll is pared back further — or if a more long-term outlook is adopted after a 93-loss season — who could GM Neal Huntington look to move?

The Bucs reportedly aren’t shopping Marte, although even if they were, it wouldn’t behoove them to broadcast that intention. More importantly, they may not find a better time to move him. Marte still has two affordable years remaining on his contract at a time when it’s extremely difficult to see Pittsburgh contending in the NL Central and at a time when several hopeful contenders need center fielders. The Phillies, Braves, D-backs, Padres, Giants, White Sox and Rangers are all among the clubs who could realistically look for an impactful center fielder this winter. Philadelphia’s need is particularly glaring.

Despite a lack of certainty in the Pirates’ rotation — more on that later — it also strikes me as worth pondering whether the club will look to find a change of scenery for Archer as well. Selling low on a pitcher for whom they paid an exorbitant price in the first place would sting, but things haven’t panned out for Archer in Pittsburgh. The Pirates didn’t have success trying to push Archer back into throwing a two-seam fastball — a pitch he’d already abandoned once in his career — and they were unable to help him curb his home-run troubles even after kicking the two-seamer to the curb once again in mid-June.

However, after cutting bait on that lackluster sinker, Archer struck out a whopping 31.3 percent of the hitters he faced and induced swinging strikes at a 13.4 percent clip. Those are encouraging signs from a pitcher who also has above-average spin on his breaking ball, above-average velocity on his heater and two years and $20MM remaining on his contract. That’s an eminently affordable rate for most teams, but it’s perhaps more than the Pirates care to commit to a pitcher who now looks like a reclamation project after struggling to fit into Pittsburgh’s mold. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows aren’t walking back through the door, but the Pirates could definitely still extract some value if Archer is shipped elsewhere. That the offseason trade market is light on intriguing pitchers only enhances Archer’s appeal.

The question for the Bucs would be what to target in these theoretical trade scenarios. Embarking on a full rebuild would mean simply prioritizing the best available young talent, but they haven’t indicated that they’ll be going down that road. In terms of immediate roster needs, the Pirates are largely set in the infield. Kevin Newman impressed at shortstop in his rookie season, Adam Frazier enjoyed a solid year and Josh Bell finally tapped into the power that made him such a touted prospect. Jacob Stallings had a terrific defensive year behind the plate but didn’t offer much offense. Fellow catcher Elias Diaz, who missed the beginning of the season due to a viral infection, had a lost year all around.

In the outfield, Bryan Reynolds — acquired in what was at the time an unpopular Andrew McCutchen trade — is going to garner Rookie of the Year consideration and looks like a potential long-term piece. Gregory Polanco’s first year back from shoulder surgery was a dud, but he’s signed for at least two more seasons and only a year removed from a solid 2018 showing.

The points of upgrade in the lineup seem clear: the Pirates could use help at third base, behind the plate and (if they trade Marte) at one outfield spot.

At the hot corner, Colin Moran has been serviceable but unspectacular when hitting against right-handed pitching and virtually unplayable against lefties in his career. He’s not a great defender, but Moran has yet to even reach arbitration eligibility, so he’ll be back as an option. The Pirates have top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, one of the game’s elite defensive prospects, looming in Triple-A. He could push for a big league roster spot by next summer, so a stopgap at third base or a platoon partner for Moran is all that’s really needed. That can be found in free agency (e.g. Logan Forsythe, Todd Frazier or Tim Beckham, assuming the latter is non-tendered).

In the outfield, the Pirates currently have Reynolds, Marte and Polanco, making them likelier to add depth pieces than a starting-caliber name — if they keep Marte. If he’s moved, the club could look to get a young outfielder back, but the free-agent market will also have ample corner options. Avisail Garcia and Kole Calhoun (assuming his option is bought out) could fit the bill, or the Pirates could simply re-sign Melky Cabrera, who was productive early in 2019 before his offense cratered later in the year.

Things are trickier behind the plate. Diaz looked like a potential option following a quietly productive 2018 campaign, but his illness-shortened season makes him more of a question mark. Stallings showed great defensive aptitude, but he’ll soon turn 30 and has just 282 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Catching help would be a logical area of focus in trades. Even if the Pirates hang onto their top chips, it should be addressed in free agency. Yasmani Grandal is going to be too expensive, but a second-tier option like Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos would likely fit into their price range.

The bigger questions for the Pirates come on the pitching staff. Jameson Taillon’s second career Tommy John surgery, paired with Archer’s struggles, was a massive blow to the Pirates’ 2020 hopes. Add in the fact that uber-prospect Mitch Keller was shelled in 48 MLB innings, and the rotation outlook is unexpectedly bleak. (To Keller’s credit, he was plagued by a ridiculous .475 average on balls in play and did rack up 65 strikeouts, so there’s cause for optimism moving forward.) The rest of Pittsburgh’s rotation includes team innings leader Joe Musgrove, who profiles as a mid-rotation arm, and two pitchers who posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 2019 (Trevor Williams and Steven Brault).

In the bullpen, things are similarly cloudy — particularly with Vazquez likely out of the picture and Kela standing out as a trade candidate. Richard Rodriguez and Michael Feliz turned in solid ERAs with more questionable secondary stats. The rest of the relief corps was a revolving door of shrug emojis. Pirates relievers ranked 23rd in the Majors in ERA, 22nd in FIP and 20th in xFIP as a collective unit in 2019, and that was with Vazquez and Kela combining for 89 2/3 innings. The incumbent group offers minimal hope for improvement.

Whether the Pirates move their most desirable assets now or reload and make another run in 2020, they’re going to need multiple arms added to the pitching staff, some catching help and some infield depth. If they keep Marte and Archer, they’ll likely be limited to low-cost fliers on rebound candidates, given that they’ll already be within $9MM of last year’s Opening Day payroll mark. If one or both of that pair is moved to another club, Pittsburgh could technically spend more aggressively, but the urgency to do so would be diminished, as dealing Marte and/or Archer would in many ways signal a step back.

Barring an unexpected payroll hike, the Pirates don’t look like major players in free agency (as usual). Contending in next year’s NL Central looks like a significant long shot, and the extent to which they believe that possible will have a direct impact on the future of players like Marte and Archer.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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Once again, the Angels are coming off a season in which they failed to capitalize on the presence of baseball’s best player, Mike Trout. The Angels, who have gone to the playoffs just once since Trout’s major league introduction in 2011, stumbled to a dismal 72-90 record this year. In fairness, though, the club dealt with adversity that would have been difficult for anyone to overcome. There were myriad injuries (including to the likes of Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton), but worse than anything, there was the death of left-hander Tyler Skaggs. A beloved teammate and integral member of the Angels’ rotation, Skaggs passed away July 1, and the Angels never recovered on the field.

The Angels fell way out of contention in the second half of the season, which cost manager Brad Ausmus his job after just one year in the role. They quickly replaced Ausmus with the highly respected and accomplished Joe Maddon, a perennial winner who they hope will help turn their fortunes around in 2020. If not, general manager Billy Eppler could be the next key member of the organization who finds himself on the chopping block. Now on the verge of a contract year, Eppler’s likely facing a make-or-break offseason – one that could see the Angels make an earnest attempt to finally return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Odds are quite good the Angels’ winter will largely center on acquiring starting pitching, as their rotation has regularly been a below-average unit in recent years. It was especially bad in 2019 (thanks in part to the loss of Skaggs), evidenced by the group’s 30th-place ranking in fWAR and 29th overall ERA. The return of Ohtani, who was unable to pitch at all this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, could be like a major acquisition in and of itself. But it would be foolhardy to count on Ohtani as the end-all, be-all, given that he’s coming off two surgeries (including a September knee procedure) and barely has 50 MLB innings to his name.

If he’s actually healthy, Ohtani may be able to provide the Angels’ rotation front-line production, though the rest of their options look decidedly less promising. Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning appear to be fine complementary pieces, but the Halos need to aim higher if they’re going to force their way into the playoff race next season. What can they do? The answer’s obvious: Either sign Astros superstar and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole or, if he opts out of his Nationals contract, Stephen Strasburg.

Cole and Strasburg stand out as the crown jewels of the upcoming winter’s free-agent pitching class, both are Southern California natives and the Angels have the spending capacity to reel in either. Super-agent Scott Boras represents Cole and Strasburg, which could theoretically serve as a roadblock for an Angels team whose owner, Arte Moreno, has had beef with Boras in the past. However, the Angels are just a winter removed from adding a Boras client, Matt Harvey, as their largest offseason signing. Harvey cost “only” a guaranteed $11MM, granted, while Cole may be on his way to a record contract for a pitcher (at least $220MM, if not significantly higher), and Strasburg should be able to secure something close to $150MM.

However much Cole and Strasburg end up raking in, it would make sense for the Angels to go all-in on one of the two. Deciding to buy low on the likes of Harvey and Trevor Cahill while tiptoeing around the Patrick Corbin market a year ago blew up in the team’s face. Now, it’s all the more evident the Angels need an ace-caliber hurler to join Ohtani near the top of their rotation, and either Cole or Strasburg would fit the bill.

Let’s say the Angels do get Cole or Strasburg. Then what? Well, they’d still need at least one more quality veteran starter. Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jake Odorizzi are the best of the rest, though each should command paydays of at least $50MM. In all likelihood, any of them would be too pricey for a team with Cole or Strasburg in tow. However, they’d still be able to pick up less expensive help. Competent innings have been hard to come by in recent years for an Angels club that injuries have consistently ravaged, so someone like Dallas Keuchel (if he again encounters a disappointing market), Cole Hamels (if he has to settle for a lesser deal than expected), Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson or Julio Teheran (likely via trade) could make sense as a secondary addition to the legit ace we’re forecasting the Angels sign.

The Angels’ bullpen looks like a less pressing issue than their starting staff, yet it’s still an area they could stand to address. Hansel Robles was quietly one of the surprise relievers in baseball in 2019; Ty Buttrey, Cam Bedrosian, Noe Ramirez and Felix Pena put up respectable years in their own right; and Keynan Middleton should be ready for a full season as he continues to distance himself from May 2018 TJ surgery. All six of those hurlers are in line to return to the Halos next season, which is – for lack of a better word – a relief. They’re all righties, though, so it wouldn’t be a shock for the Angels to at least target a southpaw to complement them. Probably not Aroldis Chapman or Will Smith, who’d cost too much for a team that has to pour so much money into its rotation, but Jake Diekman and Francisco Liriano would make for affordable targets. It’s important to note that Diekman and Liriano are consistent against lefty and righty batters alike – which is a must-have trait for a southpaw with MLB set to implement a three-batter minimum rule in 2020.

As for the Angels’ collection of position players, Trout and Upton will keep occupying two-thirds of the outfield; Andrelton Simmons will continue to hold down short; the underrated David Fletcher will primarily man second or third; Ohtani makes for a more-than-capable DH; and for better or worse, Albert Pujols will stay as a DH/first baseman. But what of the rest of their lineup?

The Halos are likely stuck with another year of Zack Cozart, who could see a fair bit of action at second or third if he’s healthy. Fellow infielder Luis Rengifo had a decent rookie season, while yet another first-year infielder, Matt Thaiss, at least showed some pop. There’s also Tommy La Stella, who was amid an unexpected All-Star year before suffering what basically proved to be a season-ending fractured tibia at the beginning of July. So, it’s entirely possible the Angels will be comfortable with Fletcher, Cozart, Rengifo, Thaiss and La Stella at second and third. If not, free agency may be a route for the club to take. FAs-to-be Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson look wholly unrealistic, but that may not be the case for Mike Moustakas/Todd Frazier at third or the slew of low-priced second basemen on the cusp of reaching the open market.

Moving to the outfield, the main question is whether the Angels will buy out solid all-around right fielder Kole Calhoun. It seems likely, as doing so would save the team $13MM to spend on other sore spots. They could easily plug in Brian Goodwin and/or another similarly inexpensive player in right as a stopgap as they wait for one of their top prospects to show up. Angels farmhands Jo Adell – who’s among the cream-of-the-crop prospects in baseball – and Brandon Marsh are closing on the majors, so it seems unlikely the team will allocate a substantial amount of money to right field in 2020.

Aside from the Angels’ pitching staff, the catcher position stands out as their most troubling area. Last winter’s relatively cheap signing of Jonathan Lucroy failed, while in-season pickups Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom recorded abysmal numbers. The Angels are now left with Stassi, Bemboom and Kevan Smith (who had a passable overall season at the plate but floundered in the second half) as the only backstops left on their 40-man roster. That’s obviously not ideal. Still, it’s up in the air how much money the Angels will spend to upgrade the position. It could depend on how much they use to fix their rotation, which should be the priority. Should a Cole or Strasburg join the mix, it’s likely the game’s No. 1 pending free-agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal (an Angels target last winter), will end up out of their price range. Otherwise, any of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud, Robinson Chirinos or even Austin Romine (whom Eppler knows from the Yankees) look like players who could potentially pique the Angels’ interest.

“Obviously, Arte’s never been worried about spending money,” Maddon recently said of Moreno. That’ll need to prove true in the next several weeks, as the clearest path to properly address the Angels’ most glaring weakness – starting pitching – will be throwing cash at the problem. Whether it’s Cole or Strasburg, it seems imperative for the team to land at least one of them if it’s going to finally crawl out of the muck in 2020. It’s hard to imagine this going down as a resoundingly successful offseason for the Angels if they swing and miss on both of those aces.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles are still working through the ugly stages of a rebuilding effort, but could still be an opportunistic buyer of high-value talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Davis, 1B: $69MM through 2022 ($6MM annually deferred, without interest, all the way through 2037)
  • Alex Cobb, RHP: $29MM through 2021 ($4.5MM annually deferred through 2032)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Baltimore Orioles depth chart | Baltimore Orioles payroll outlook]

There’s not a lot to love about the MLB roster in Baltimore, and the few established pieces look like trade candidates. That makes for a freewheeling situation for still-fresh GM Mike Elias, who has loads of roster and payroll flexibility to work with.

The Orioles aren’t obligated contractually for very much spending, but the promises they do have out — to Chris Davis and Alex Cobb — are near-complete write-offs. That’s not to say that a turnaround is impossible to imagine in either case, though it’s tougher to envision for Davis. (Whether and when he’s cut loose may be an ownership call.) The O’s will hope that Cobb can function as an important part of their 2020 pitching mix and perhaps ultimately be dealt. But it’s nearly impossible to imagine either contract being movable this winter.

Things begin getting interesting from a transactional perspective when you look down the list of arbitration-eligible players. I’ve recently suggested Jonathan Villar as a trade candidate. But my eyes bulged when I saw his arbitration projection. It’s tough to see Villar as a highly appealing trade candidate at that price. The O’s may well be better served letting him go test the market while reinvesting the cash on other opportunities. Hanser Alberto is an easier piece to move, though the Baltimore organization may also prefer to maintain the middle-infield stability if nothing interesting is offered up (especially if Villar is sent packing).

With little in the way of player-contract trade capital, Elias and co. have surely dedicated a good amount of thought and analysis to a trio of fairly intriguing, homegrown players. First baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini is the organization’s best hitter and current flag bearer. Righty Dylan Bundy is still youthful and possesses relatively rare swing-and-miss stuff for a starter. And reliever Mychal Givens has an electric arm, though as with Bundy that hasn’t always translated to results. It’s not hard to imagine each of these players drawing trade interest from various other organizations. None is dirt cheap or without his warts, but each now has ample MLB experience and an appealing skillset.

The O’s really can’t afford to cling onto Mancini, Bundy, and Givens with the idea that they’ll help spring a return to contention. But there’s also not much reason to sell these players off just to make a move. In concept, they’re the organization’s slugger, ace, and closer; the team needs gate draws and some baseline competence. And it can certainly hope that some or all kick up their value during the first half of 2020.

There’s also another possibility here, mostly with regard to Mancini. As the 27-year-old bounced back from a messy 2018 effort, chatter increased about a possible extension. There’s not a huge amount of appeal in promising big cash for the late-arbitration and early-free-agency seasons of a good-but-not-great corner outfielder who is in sight of his thirties. But it’s not impossible to imagine the O’s being willing to offer a reasonable sum to entrench Mancini as a holdover star and bridge to their next contending outfit.

Supposing Mancini remains on hand, the O’s may soon have a nice power duo taking aim at the readily assailable walls of Camden Yards. Top prospect Ryan Mountcastle, another first base/corner outfield option, is probably as ready as he’ll ever be after a nice Triple-A season. (Though he may still remain in the minors for a few weeks out of camp owing to service-time considerations.) Mountcastle doesn’t walk much at all and has not stuck at more valuable defensive positions, but remains a well-regarded prospect with the bat.

Between those two, Davis, and DH/corner infielder Renato Nunez, the Orioles are covered in the defensively limited slugger department. They’ve got a decent number of outfield possibilities as well, limiting the likelihood that the organization will target players who do their defensive work on the grass. Up the middle, the team does have a pair of possibilities in Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Former Rule 5 pick Anthony Santander probably deserves a longer look in a corner capacity, while DJ Stewart and Dwight Smith Jr. are other options.

Speaking broadly, there isn’t a need to address this area of the roster. But the O’s could surely make room if a particularly interesting opportunity arises and will at a minimum consider bringing in some veteran camp competition. Another spot that’s even less in need of tinkering is behind the dish. Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino form a solid, cheap, and youthful duo that can be supported with minor signings. Recent top overall draft pick Adley Rutschman won’t be rushed, but isn’t expected to take much development time.

The 4-5-6 places in the lineup are a source of greater intrigue — particularly if, as noted above, Villar and/or Alberto end up on the move. The club held onto Rule 5’er Richie Martin all season long to gain his rights permanently, but Martin is almost certainly due for a much-needed stint in the upper minors. There’ll likely be at least one middle-infield opening. At the hot corner, Rio Ruiz is still just 25 and picked up the pace offensively in the second half. But he’s not a slam-dunk to hold down the position all year long. Fortunately for the Orioles, there are loads of second and third-base types floating around this year’s free agent market. The Baltimore organization could pick a buy-low target, hunt for younger players that shake loose, or even consider taking on an unwanted contract from another team as part of a larger trade.

All of that is prelude to the area of primary focus this winter for the Baltimore front office: the pitching staff. On the one hand, the situation presents an unquestionable jam. The Orioles’ pitching staff was altogether brutal in 2019, easily lagging the rest of baseball with a collective 5.67 ERA and eye-watering 1.90 home runs per nine. There’s no spending your way out of that. On the other hand, these O’s won’t be competitive and don’t need to be. They ought to have plenty of cash to put to work if they see interesting opportunities to add. And while Camden Yards (and the AL East) make for a deterrent to potential bounceback pitching targets, the Orioles can promise ample opportunity to hurlers that need a chance to get their careers back on track.

The rotation is a particular need. John Means was a major bright spot in 2019, turning in 155 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, but some ERA estimators were very down on his underlying performance (5.48 xFIP; 5.02 SIERA). Bundy is a useful pitcher that still may have a bit of upside, but he has yet to put it all together. Perhaps Cobb can bounce back after hip surgery, but he’s a total wild card. There are a few notable farmhands that could be possibilities — Hunter Harvey (who debuted last year in a relief role), Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, Michael Baumann, Cody Sedlock — but the O’s will take the long view on them and can’t be sure what to expect.

It seems reasonable to anticipate some additions to that unit — perhaps reasonably significant ones. Asher Wojciechowski and Gabriel Ynoa were among the pitchers that gave the Orioles some innings last year; they and others remain available. But it’s fair to presume the club would rather be trotting out other hurlers while also avoiding some of the scrambling that was needed this year. When it comes to open-market and/or trade targets, Elias and company arguably ought to aim higher than they did last winter with Nathan Karns and Dan Straily.

The bullpen isn’t much different, except that it’s much easier to throw a bunch of arms at the situation — particularly with all the names just noted floating around. But there, too, there’s cause to think that some veteran supplementation would help, especially if Givens ends up on the move. Attracting decent bounceback candidates may be even tougher in the relief realm, but offering an MLB contract and late-inning role can do wonders.

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals didn’t quite tear their roster down to the nuts and bolts, but 2019 nevertheless represented the first full season in another rebuilding effort for the Kansas City franchise. That approach manifested in the form of a ghastly 59-103 record, leaving the team with the fourth overall draft pick in 2020. Despite ample need throughout the roster, though, don’t expect an aggressive winter from the Royals in the midst of a rebuild.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

  • None (though Gordon’s option is expected to be bought out)

The first order of business for the Royals will be to anoint a replacement for longtime skipper Ned Yost, who announced his retirement as the manager in K.C. late in the season. The Royals have been conducting what could prove to be a nominal search; it’s been rumored for the past year that former Cardinals skipper Mike Matheny, who was named a special advisor to GM Dayton Moore early last offseason, was being groomed for the spot.

Reports out of Kansas City since Yost’s announcement have largely suggested that Matheny is indeed next in line, although the Royals have interviewed quality control coach Pedro Grifol, bench coach Dale Sveum and bullpen coach Vance Wilson. It’s an all-internal list and one that could’ve benefited from an earnest search for outside voices, if that quartet does indeed represent the entirety of the field. The limited scope of Kansas City’s “search” feels far more insular than it needs to be.

Matheny, the apparent favorite, was booted in St. Louis after taking plenty of criticism for his bullpen management, his aversion to utilizing modern baseball data and amid reports of strife between veterans and rookies in the clubhouse. Right-hander Jordan Hicks, the subject of some such reports, downplayed them last July, but Matheny was dismissed a day later (the extent to which those were related remains unclear).

The first order of roster business is Alex Gordon’s 2020 option. That $23MM figure doesn’t stand a chance of being picked up, so the Royals will instead pay Gordon, who hit .266/.345/.396 in 150 games this past season, a $4MM buyout. That doesn’t necessarily preclude a reunion, of course. Gordon hasn’t yet made up his mind about whether he’s interested in returning for his age-36 season, but the Royals have been clear that they’d like him back. The franchise icon may ultimately opt to retire, but if he does play, it’ll be for the Royals.

Once Gordon’s situation is sorted out, the Royals will be primarily tasked with finding ways to bolster the team’s stable of up-and-coming talent and perhaps supplement that group with some low-cost free agents. Kansas City has been largely reluctant to entertain offers on Whit Merrifield in the past, but the team-friendly contract extension to which he agreed last January carries enormous value. The 30-year-old still isn’t a household name but absolutely should be; he’s led the Majors in hits in each of the past two seasons and posted a combined .298/.348/.454 in 2072 plate appearances since becoming a regular in 2017 (despite the pitcher-friendly nature of Kauffman Stadium).

Merrifield will turn 31 this winter, and the Royals aren’t likely to contend until at least his age-32 season — if not his age-33 campaign. A player with that type of offensive output who is also capable of playing a plus second base or any of the three outfield spots would carry trade value even if he were playing near his market value. Merrifield, however, can be controlled for a total of $21MM over the next four seasons (with the fourth year checking in as a $6.5MM team option).

Upwards of half the teams in baseball should salivate over the notion of acquiring him at that rate, and the Royals could rightly ask for multiple MLB-ready (controllable, pre-arbitration) pieces in return. Kansas City reportedly sought three such players in July and should aim high again this winter. That’s not to say they should shrug and accept the best package if the offers are underwhelming, but cashing in Merrifield’s deal for multiple younger players whose ages more closely align with the Royals’ timeline to competitiveness is sensible, even if some K.C. fans will bristle at the notion. Whether Moore & Co. legitimately try to move him remains to be seen, but it’d be surprising if Merrifield’s name didn’t come up in trade rumblings this winter.

Looking elsewhere around the roster, the other veterans on board could generate some interest. Starting pitching is in demand every winter, and this winter’s trade market is particularly lacking in terms of quality veteran names who could be on the move. Danny Duffy’s value isn’t what it used to be, and his contract probably feels a bit heavy to other clubs. But he’d likely generate some interest, particularly if the Royals agreed to take on a smaller contract in return.

Ian Kennedy is overpaid at $16.5MM but was able to successfully reestablish himself as a viable big league arm in 2019. The Royals reportedly didn’t have interest in paying down any of his salary at this year’s trade deadline. Taking on a lesser contract in return for Kennedy’s deal, though, could grease the wheels on a deal and perhaps net some minor league talent for an otherwise expiring asset who won’t command a qualifying offer (and would be ineligible to receive one anyway by virtue of having already received a QO earlier in his career). Kennedy turned in 63 1/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball (2.99 FIP, 3.46 SIERA) while averaging 10.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.85 HR/9 this past season. He also racked up 30 saves and notched a career-best 44.4 percent ground-ball rate. Ian Kennedy the starter had fallen off the map, but as noted back in May, Ian Kennedy, the reliever, is rather interesting.

If there’s another asset with waning team control who could be marketed, that’d be your surprising American League home run king: Jorge Soler. However, drumming up a market could be tough, even with Soler coming off a 48-homer season. The 27-year-old (28 in February) also led the American League in strikeouts and comes with negative defensive value. He’d likely need to land on a team with a pure DH opening, and there simply aren’t many around the league — at least not among teams that are hoping to contend in 2020-21 (when Soler is under club control).

On that note, it’s worth laying out Soler’s contract structure. He’s entering the final season of a nine-year, $30MM deal signed with the Cubs as a prospect back in 2012. That deal, as is common among Major League deals for Cuban-born amateurs, allows Soler to opt into arbitration when he’s eligible. He opted not to last winter on the heels of a miserable 2017 season but surely will do so with a 48-dinger campaign in the rear-view mirror. The type of deal Soler signed is no longer permissible under MLB’s international free agency structure, so he’ll be one of the final players with this type of opportunity.

MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan wrote not long ago that rather than explore a trade of Soler, he expects the team to instead explore an extension with the burgeoning slugger. There’s certainly an argument against doing so, but I explored what such an arrangement might look like at greater length late last month.

As pertains to the open market, the Royals aren’t likely to be big spenders. They opened this season with a payroll just under $97MM and have about $77MM committed to the 2020 roster, including arbitration-eligible players. They could have around $20MM to spend and still keep in line with last year’s payroll, but that doesn’t mean they’ll spend that entire sum.

A new deal for Gordon would probably cost only a few million dollars (perhaps with some incentives), but if he retires, the outfield is a plausible area for upgrade. Merrifield seems ticketed for right field in 2020 — at least early on as a means of getting a continued look at prospect Nicky Lopez at second base. Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling could compete for center-field reps, but the Royals otherwise are lacking in appealing options. Jorge Bonifacio served an 80-game PED suspension this season and didn’t even receive a September call-up; his grip on a 40-man roster spot hardly seems secure.

The free-agent market also features more corner outfield types than teams in need of such players (particularly when factoring in the ample supply of outfielders available via trade). Any of Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Corey Dickerson or Kole Calhoun (assuming the Angels buy out his option) could make sense in Kansas City — though Ozuna and Castellanos may be too pricey (particularly if Ozuna receives a qualifying offer). Names like Domingo Santana, Nomar Mazara, Hunter Renfroe and Jesse Winker could all circulate on the trade rumor mill. Options aren’t in short supply, and adding a corner bat for the Royals makes sense.

Looking to the infield, the Royals have Adalberto Mondesi at shortstop and Lopez beginning the season at second base, but adding a veteran middle infielder for depth seems prudent. Mondesi underwent shoulder surgery following a somewhat bizarre sequence of events late in the season. Kansas City activated him from the injured list in early September, with Yost telling reporters at the time that Mondesi had been asked not to dive for balls in the field or slide headfirst into bases (Twitter link via Flanagan). Mondesi instinctively dove for a ball to his right later that month and reinjured his left shoulder — incurring the tear that led to his surgery. His availability for the start of the season isn’t guaranteed, so adding a veteran in the Jose Iglesias mold could be sensible to safeguard against an early Mondesi absence and/or poor play from the yet-inexperienced Lopez.

Hunter Dozier, fresh off a breakout, should lock things down at third base. Kansas City has a tentative platoon of Ryan McBroom and Ryan O’Hearn at first base, but adding a more experienced first baseman certainly wouldn’t hurt. O’Hearn impressed in 170 plate appearances in 2018 before faceplanting in 370 PAs in 2019. McBroom will be a 28-year-old rookie with 83 career plate appearances under his belt next season.

Behind the plate, there’s no need for an addition with Salvador Perez coming back and a pair of backup options in Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. But the Royals will need to take a hard look at who’s throwing the ball to said receivers.

In Duffy, Brad Keller and Jakob Junis, the Royals have a talented but inconsistent top three starters. July acquisition Mike Montgomery will be tendered a contract and get the opportunity to make some starts as well. Beyond that, the combination of Glenn Sparkman, Jorge Lopez (who may be strictly a reliever now), Heath Fillmyer, Eric Skoglund, Trevor Oaks and Jesse Hahn doesn’t do much to inspire confidence. Kansas City has some notable rotation prospects on the way with Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic inching closer to the big leagues, but there’s room to add a veteran starter to this mix on a one-year deal.

In the ’pen, things are even more muddled. Kennedy is lined up to close, and righty Scott Barlow has some promising stretches even with a brutal run in the middle of the year. Tim Hill had a solid half-season’s worth of innings from the left side. Kevin McCarthy posted a middling ERA with one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. Between Lopez, Hahn, Rosario and Kyle Zimmer, the Royals have four out-of-options relievers on the 40-man roster. The bullpen is ripe for turnover and is also perhaps the clearest place to add some veteran stabilizers who could eventually be flipped for younger talent. The Royals won’t be pursuing a Will Smith reunion, but the market should have plenty of interesting short-term options (Steve Cishek, Craig Stammen, Joe Smith, etc.) and bounceback candidates (Cody Allen, Brad Brach, Jeremy Jeffress). There’s room and reason to add multiple pieces here.

Moore began the 2018-19 offseason by speaking of the need to win more games, and a tepid offseason that saw the Royals spend $14.2MM on Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Jake Diekman, Brad Boxberger, Terrance Gore and the aforementioned Zimmer didn’t get them there. Kansas City lost 104 games in ’18 and 103 games in ’19. While no one’s expecting the Royals to vie for a postseason berth in 2020, the team’s collection of pitching prospects is a year closer to the Majors. Mondesi is more established. Soler and Dozier enjoyed breakout seasons. The Gordon contract is expiring, and Kennedy’s deal is nearly off the books, too. The Royals aren’t in for an aggressive offseason relative to the rest of the league, but they should be more aggressive than they were last winter — particularly if the front office is serious about last year’s pledge to strive for more wins.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Astros

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The Astros are on the cusp of facing the Nationals in Friday’s third game of the World Series. Even though Houston hosted the first two contests, neither went its way. The Astros dropped a nail-biter Tuesday before the Nats slaughtered them Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether the Astros will mount a spirited comeback, but regardless, their season has a maximum of five games left. After that, they could see some important contributors walk via free agency We’ve already previewed the Nationals’ upcoming list of unsigned players. Now, let’s see which players the Astros might see depart on the open market…

Gerrit Cole, RHP:

  • Fittingly, Cole rivals a National – third baseman Anthony Rendon – as arguably the best pending free agent set to reach the market. Cole’s coming off a 326-strikeout, potential AL Cy Young-winning season at the age of 29 – not to mention a mostly legendary fall – so no one should be surprised if he surpasses or even crushes David Price (seven years, $217MM) for the richest contract a pitcher has ever received. The type of money Cole looks likely to command could end up being too much for Houston, meaning the organization should savor every remaining pitch the superstar throws in its uniform.

Robinson Chirinos, C:

  • While Cole’s likely on his way out of Houston, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see the team retain Chirinos. Signed to a $5.75MM guarantee last winter after the in-state rival Rangers cut him loose, the 35-year-old Chirinos has turned in yet another respectable campaign at the plate. Although Chirinos’ reputation as a defender isn’t great, he has at least one key advocate in Astros co-ace Justin Verlander. Chirinos is Verlander’s personal catcher, and manager A.J. Hinch told Dan Shulman of ESPN last week that the two have an incredibly strong bond. Regardless of whether Chirinos sticks with Verlander and the Astros, he should do better on his next contract, perhaps having performed well enough to earn a deal in the two-year, $10MM to $12MM vicinity.

Wade Miley, LHP:

  • Like Chirinos, Miley’s another bargain offseason pickup who has panned out for the Astros. True, Miley didn’t crack their ALCS or World Series rosters. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with the regular-season value he gave the team after signing for $4.5MM over the winter. Miley, 32, logged a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate over 167 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, his expected weighted on-base average against (.301) checked in below the real wOBA hitters posted off him (.314). Exciting? Not really. Good enough for another guaranteed deal (maybe even a multiyear pact)? Sure.

Will Harris, RP:

  • There don’t seem to be too many relievers who are more underrated than Harris, a 35-year-old coming off yet another regular season of strong production. Harris amassed 60 innings of 1.50 ERA ball (with a lesser but still-impressive 3.15 FIP), recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, and put up a terrific 54.6 percent grounder rate. Harris is now quietly one of the top soon-to-be free-agent relievers out there, so despite his age, he’s another candidate for a two-year accord.

Joe Smith, RP:

  • Smith, 35, joins Harris as a veteran reliever whose quality career has flown somewhat under the radar. He sat out until mid-July this year after suffering a ruptured left Achilles last winter, but the soft-tossing Smith returned to post a Harris-esque 1.80 ERA/3.09 FIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent grounder rate across 25 regular-season frames. Smith has been similarly tough in the postseason, having piled up 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. While he probably doesn’t have Harris’ earning upside, Smith should at least be able to land a decent-paying one-year contract.

Hector Rondon, RP:

  • Hey, here’s another proven reliever whom the Astros are at risk of losing. Rondon, however, wasn’t nearly as difficult on opposing hitters as Harris and Smith were during the regular season, nor has the team leaned on him in the playoffs. The 31-year-old’s regular campaign consisted of 60 2/3 frames of 3.71 ERA/4.96 FIP ball with 7.12 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 50 percent grounder rate. Compared to 2018, Rondon’s strikeout rate fell nearly 4 percent and his HR-to-fly ball percentage more than doubled, though he still pumped heat upward of 96 mph. He looks to be a decent bet for a relatively inexpensive one-year deal once the offseason arrives.

Martin Maldonado, C:

  • Let’s move back behind the plate to discuss Maldonado, whom the Astros have acquired via trade in back-to-back summers. They reportedly tried to keep the then-free agent with a two-year, $12MM offer last offseason, but he declined and ended up settling for a $2.5MM guarantee with the Royals. Financially, it didn’t work out, and after another year in which Maldonado combined below-average offense with plus defense, it’s easy to imagine him winding up with a second straight payday in the $2.5MM range.

Collin McHugh, RHP:

  • McHugh entered 2019 with several years’ experience as a sturdy starter and one season (’18) of excellence as a reliever under his belt, but things went haywire. The 32-year-old faltered in his return to a starting role early in the season. Between that and the elbow issues he dealt with, the Astros moved McHugh back to their bullpen. He was much more effective in that position, though McHugh’s season came to a premature end in September because of more elbow troubles. Needless to say, the long-solid McHugh’s about to hit free agency at the wrong time.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nationals

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The thrilling first game of the World Series just wrapped up with Washington pulling off a 5-4 victory in Houston. If you’re a neutral observer, you may be hoping for six more games just like that one. However long the series lasts, though, both teams stand to see some key contributors reach the open market thereafter. Let’s start with a review of the Nationals’ pending free agents…

Anthony Rendon, 3B:

  • I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know in regards to Rendon. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another world-class season, perhaps an MVP-level campaign, and is finally getting the national recognition his play has long warranted. As hands down the premier soon-to-be free-agent position player, Rendon has a strong case for a guarantee worth $225MM or more.

Brian Dozier, 2B:

  • Dozier was an elite second baseman with the Twins for a few years leading up to 2018, but he hasn’t been the same player dating back to then. After a down season divided between the Twins and Dodgers, the Nationals signed Dozier to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter. Dozier enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back regular season, hitting .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs and 1.7 fWAR in 482 plate appearances. That’s still not great production, though, and odds are the 32-year-old will have to settle for another single-season guarantee (very likely for less money) in his next trip to free agency.

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B:

  • As with Dozier, Kendrick’s likely heading for a one-year deal. However, in Kendrick’s case, that has far more to do with age than performance. After all, the long-solid Kendrick, 36, has been an offensive machine all season. Kendrick slashed a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 homers in 370 PA during the regular campaign, when Statcast more than backed up his bottom-line output. Just four qualified hitters (some names you may recognize in Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Nelson Cruz) outdid Kendrick’s .418 expected weighted on-base average. Kendrick has further cemented himself in Washington lore with a productive postseason, with his decisive grand slam in Game 5 of the team’s NLDS victory over the Dodgers sure to count among the franchise’s greatest moments for decades to come.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/3B:

  • The 33-year-old Cabrera has been an outstanding in-season pickup for Washington, which grabbed him off the scrapheap after Texas released him in early August. Cabrera was only a .235/.318/.393 hitter at that point, but he slashed an excellent .323/.404/.565 in 146 regular-season PA after donning a Nats uniform. Cabrera’s D.C. production should be enough to earn him another guaranteed deal in the offseason.

Gerardo Parra, OF:

  • It’s hard to believe, but Parra has turned into a folk hero in Washington since the club brought him on a low-cost deal toward the beginning of May. At that point, Parra was the owner of a paltry .546 OPS and someone the Giants understandably jettisoned despite obvious needs in their outfield. Not only has Parra hit a much-improved .250/.300/.447 in 204 trips to the plate since then, but his “Baby Shark” intro has helped make him a fan and clubhouse favorite. It doesn’t look as if Parra would be a bad investment on what’s sure to be another low-paying deal.

Daniel Hudson, RP:

  • The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t appear to be an exciting addition for the Nationals when they acquired him from the Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, but he has since established himself an indispensable part of their bullpen. Hudson pitched to a 1.44 ERA (with a 3.53 FIP) and totaled 23 strikeouts against two walks in 25 regular-season innings as a Nat. The brilliance has largely continued in the postseason for the 32-year-old, who has thrown seven frames of one-earned run ball and converted all four of his save chances. Hudson had to settle for a $1.5MM contract with the Jays right before the season started, but he should do far better next time. A two-year deal in the $10MM range could be in the offing this winter.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP:

  • Hellickson was a quality member of the Nationals’ pitching staff in 2018, which led the club to bring back the former AL Rookie of the Year on a $1.3MM guarantee last winter. At that price, it was a gamble worth taking for the Nationals, but it didn’t work out. The 32-year-old Hellickson struggled into May before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Assuming Hellickson signs somewhere in the offseason, he’ll be getting a minor league pact.

Fernando Rodney, RP:

  • This season has been a wild ride for the 42-year-old Rodney, who bombed with the Athletics in the early going, got his release in late May, signed a minors deal with the Nats a week later and is now part of a World Series roster. The nomadic arrow slinger tossed 33 1/3 regular-season innings of 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP ball and posted 9.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 after the Nationals brought him up in late June. Rodney has added 2 2/3 scoreless frames during the playoffs. Will that be enough for Rodney to pick up a major league deal over the winter? Perhaps, but he’s obviously not going to break the bank.

Jonny Venters, RP:

  • Venters, who has seemingly overcome one awful injury after another during his career, will have to do so yet again. No stranger to the operating table, Venters underwent yet another serious procedure (on a torn capsule in his left shoulder) in August. The 34-year-old’s career could conceivably be over, though he’ll try to get off the mat one more time.
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