Checking In On Last Year’s NL Division Champs
We checked in earlier tonight on how things are shaping up for last year’s American League division winners as get set for a new season. Let’s do the same here for the three Senior Circuit clubs that won division titles in 2019…
NL West – Dodgers (106-56; won division by 21 games)
- It’s hard to assess the Dodgers’ roster without knowing if their planned Mookie Betts acquisition will go through. There are many moving parts involved in that deal, as a Betts pickup would send fellow outfielders Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, not to mention righty Kenta Maeda, to different teams. Regardless of that, and regardless of what wasn’t an especially active offseason for the Dodgers before the Betts swap, they’re in line to take home their eighth straight division championship in 2020. That said, they’ll face more competition from the Diamondbacks and Padres. Those two teams have enjoyed impressive offseasons, though it’s still difficult to imagine either toppling the juggernaut Dodgers in 2020.
NL East – Braves (97-65; won division by four games)
- The Braves lost a few key free agents in Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, but they still look like a rock-solid club when considering the talent on hand and their new additions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka continue to headline their core, and they’ve picked up Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels and Travis d’Arnaud in free agency. There’s little doubt the Braves will be very good again in 2020; problem is that they’re stuck in a division with two or three real challengers. The Nationals, last year’s world champions, as well as the Mets and Phillies have done quite a bit of tinkering with their rosters this winter. Even the Marlins have tried to better themselves. All things considered, the NL East is shaping up to be a dogfight this year.
NL Central – Cardinals (91-71; won division by two games)
- Like the NL East, the NL Central should be hotly contested in 2020. The Cardinals ruled by a thin margin last season, but they’ve since had a pretty low-key offseason. For the most part, they’ll be relying on their talent from 2019 to nab another title this year. Luckily for the Cardinals, neither the Brewers nor Cubs look demonstrably better (they’re arguably worse) than they were last season, and the Pirates’ roster is a mess. The Reds have been one of the offseason’s busiest teams, though, and look as if they’ll have a chance to jump from 75-win team to playoff-caliber club in 2020.
Checking In On Last Year’s AL Division Champs
Most or all of last year’s division winners figure to enter the upcoming season as the favorites to repeat, but some degree of turnover is inevitable. Last season, for instance, three of the game’s six divisions crowned new champions. You never know which winner(s) from a year ago will off, but you can make educated guesses based on the offseasons clubs have had. With spring training right around the corner, let’s begin by taking a look at how the reigning AL divisions champs have fared this winter. All of those clubs won 100-plus games and took home their divisions by large margins in 2019. Has the gap closed on any of them?
AL West – Astros (107-65; won division by 10 games):
- As those who follow the game even a little bit know, this has been the winter of discontent for the typically dominant Astros. There’s no more GM Jeff Luhnow or manager A.J. Hinch, both fired for their roles in the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal. They’ve since been replaced by James Click and Dusty Baker, respectively. Those two are in the strange spot of inheriting a team that, despite three straight 100-win seasons and last year’s AL pennant, is in a tumultuous position. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but the Astros have lost some of their major pieces from 2019 (Gerrit Cole, Will Harris, Wade Miley and Robinson Chirinos) and, thanks in part to luxury-tax concerns, haven’t really made any moves to get better. Meanwhile, their greatest challenger in the AL West, Oakland, continues to look formidable, and two of the division’s other teams (the Rangers and Angels) have worked hard to improve themselves.
AL East – Yankees (103-59; won division by seven games)
- New York’s a popular World Series pick after swiping Cole from Houston, though the Yankees’ rotation suffered a blow earlier this week with the announcement that lefty James Paxton will miss three to four months after undergoing back surgery. It’s the latest notable injury for a Yankees team that endured one after another a season ago. Despite Paxton’s issues and the Tommy John surgery center fielder Aaron Hicks underwent last fall, the club’s clearly banking on better health in 2020, as it hasn’t made any major transactions aside from signing Cole and re-upping outfielder Brett Gardner (both were important moves, granted). The Yanks also lost two longtime key contributors – shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – to free agency, though they did just fine last year despite having to go significant stretches without them (Betances essentially missed the whole season). Looking around their division, the Yankees remain the clear front-runners, though the Rays should be legitimate challengers again. The Red Sox are in line to get markedly worse if their Mookie Betts trade goes through; the Blue Jays have upgraded their roster, but they still look a ways away from seriously taking on the Yankees; and there’s no doubt the Orioles will be the division’s whipping boys yet again.
AL Central – Twins (101-61; won division by eight games)
- An offense that set the all-time home run record with 307 last season has seemingly gotten even stronger this winter with the signing of $92MM third baseman Josh Donaldson, who smacked 37 as a Brave in 2019. While the Twins’ offense is terrifying, there’s less certainty surrounding its pitching staff. Minnesota hasn’t been able to pull in an ace-type starter since the prior campaign concluded, but it has been active in addressing its rotation. Jake Odorizzi‘s back, having accepted the Twins’ qualifying offer. So is Michael Pineda, whom they re-signed on a multiyear deal, though he’ll miss the early portion of 2020 as a result of a PED suspension from last season. Likewise, new addition Rich Hill (injured) won’t be ready from the outset. But the Twins did bring in revived veteran Homer Bailey alongside Hill, and if the aforementioned Betts trade becomes official, they’ll also pick up the underrated Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Minnesota will continue to look like a quality team even if the Maeda addition falls through, but it could face more resistance in its division. The Indians haven’t made many (any?) high-end acquisitions in recent months, but they still boast a solid roster. The White Sox appear to have gotten much better thanks to a slew of noteworthy moves, and even the last-place Tigers have made an effort to increase their talent.
4 Interesting Buy-Low Starters
With spring training right around the corner, the time for teams to make meaningful additions to their rotations by way of free agency has likely passed. There are very few starters remaining on the open market, though there’s a possibility – albeit slight – that pitcher-needy clubs could strike it rich on buy-low candidates. There are at least a handful of somewhat intriguing names left, as you’ll see below…
Taijuan Walker, RHP:
- It’s hard to believe Walker is still just 27 years old. He’s a former standout prospect with the Mariners who was a quality major league starter as recently as 2017, when he fired 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP ball as a member of the Diamondbacks. Walker also averaged a hair under 94 mph on his fastball that year. He’s now stuck without a job after injuries cut him down over the previous two seasons. Walker underwent Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in April 2018, thereby limiting him to 13 innings that year, and couldn’t rally back last season on account of shoulder troubles. He wound up tossing just one inning, in the Diamondbacks’ regular-season finale. Since then, the D-backs have non-tendered Walker (in lieu of paying him around $5MM), and just the M’s and Twins have been linked to him. Walker recently held a workout for teams “in front of about 20 scouts,” according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Matt Harvey, RHP:
- Harvey’s still relatively young (31 in March), but it seems like ancient history when the ex-Met was one of the absolute best starters in the game. Various injuries have helped destroy his career since 2015, the Dark Knight’s most recent ace-like showing. Going back to 2016, Harvey ranks third from the bottom among all qualified starters in ERA (5.65). The 5.00 FIP he has put up in the same span doesn’t inspire much more confidence, nor does the dismal showing he had with the Angels last season before they deemed him and his $11MM contract such a poor investment that the starter-light club released him in late July. That said, Harvey still threw upward of 93 mph last season and isn’t far removed from logging decent production with the Reds in 2018.
Danny Salazar, RHP:
- Salazar has been electrifying at times, and he recently turned 30, but the former Indian only threw a combined four innings (all last season) from 2018-19. Shoulder woes have been a key culprit in knocking Salazar’s career off the rails, and it’s rather alarming that his fastball averaged around 86 mph in last season’s one-game comeback after sitting around 95-96 in prior years. However, in fairness to Salazar, he was dealing with groin troubles in that contest; problem is that it went down as the latest injury in a career loaded with them.
Aaron Sanchez, RHP:
- Sanchez looked like a budding star in 2016, during which the former Blue Jay notched 192 innings of 3.00 ERA/3.55 FIP ball and induced grounders at a 54.4 percent clip. Little did anyone know Sanchez’s effectiveness would fade so severely after that, owing in part to multiple injuries. Last season, which he divided between the Jays and Astros, Sanchez posted a woeful 5.89 ERA/5.25 FIP over 131 1/3 frames. Sanchez underwent shoulder surgery toward the end of September, so he’ll miss some portion of the upcoming campaign. The Astros non-tendered him as a result, as opposed to paying him approximately $5.6MM in arbitration. Sanchez is still young (27), though, and continued to average around 94 mph on his fastball last season.
This Date In Transactions History: Minor Signing, Major Impact
It was on this date six years ago that the Dodgers made one of the greatest low-risk free-agent signings in recent memory. On Feb. 5, 2014, the club agreed to a minor league contract with third baseman Justin Turner, who has gone from afterthought to household name since he first donned a Dodgers uniform.
Now 35 years old, Turner was a seventh-round pick of the Reds in 2006 who took years and multiple uniforms to blossom into a quality major leaguer. Turner debuted with the Orioles in 2009, but he played almost exclusively with the Mets through 2013. While Turner didn’t exactly set the league on fire in New York, his offensive production did hover around the league-average mark.
During his 895-plate appearance run as a Met, Turner batted .265/.326/.370 (good for a 97 wRC+) while striking out just 13.1 percent of the time. Passable? Yes. But a lack of power helped cut down Turner, who hit a mere eight home runs and posted a weak .104 ISO as a member of the Mets. They wound up non-tendering him going into 2014, reportedly because they weren’t satisfied with the effort he put forth.
Turner’s power was dormant in New York (maybe his effort was, too), which is why he had to settle for a non-guaranteed deal to join the Dodgers. That pop has come to the surface in Los Angeles, though. Turner has eclipsed the .200 ISO mark in four straight seasons, though it took some time for him to become a legitimate power threat as a Dodger.
While Turner did hit an excellent .340/.404/.493 in 322 PA during his first season with the Dodgers, skepticism was warranted because that triple-slash line was buoyed by an unsustainable .404 batting average on balls in play. Indeed, Turner’s BABIP since then has fallen almost 100 points (he owns a .314 mark dating back to 2015). Nevertheless, the right-hander’s .297/.378/.508 line (139 wRC+) in 2,579 trips to the plate over the past half-decade helped make him one of the most valuable players in the game in that span, evidenced in part by a 21.9 fWAR that only 19 position players outdid from 2015-19. Turner also smacked 105 home runs during that stretch, and he did so while striking out in just 14.6 percent of PA.
Turner can attribute a large portion of his success in LA to help from Marlon Byrd, a former Orioles teammate, and a hitting coach named Doug Latta. As covered by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik in the book “The MVP Machine” (excerpt via Slate), Byrd and Latta were instrumental in getting Turner to take a more fly ball-oriented approach at the plate. Turner, his bank account and the Dodgers have all benefited from it.
Thanks to the breakout Turner enjoyed during his first couple years as a Dodger, they re-signed him to a four-year, $64MM deal entering 2017. Needless to say, that’s quite a step up from the minors pact he settled for upon first joining the team. For their part, the Dodgers have won the NL West in every season since Turner first signed with them and taken home a pair of pennants. Turner’s obviously not the sole reason they’ve been so dominant, but he has been one of their key contributors. He’s also a reminder not to discount anyone who signs a minor league contract. You never know when a breakout’s around the corner.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Grading The Mookie Betts Trade
In case you missed it — which, c’mon, you call yourself a MLBTR reader?! — the Red Sox have agreed to send superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in a deal that also involves the Twins in a significant fashion.
Betts may be a rental player, but he’s an awfully good one, making this is a true blockbuster. Accordingly, it’s imperative that we get the consensus grades from the MLBTR readership — yes, long before we know what will become of the young players included in this deal. (It’s pretty easy to grade trades after the fact, right?)
Let’s set forth each club’s side of the deal, with a corresponding poll:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Give: RHP Kenta Maeda ($12MM through 2023 with significant performance incentives); OF Alex Verdugo (1.078 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2024)
Get: OF Mookie Betts ($27MM in 2020); SP David Price (approximately $48MM through 2022)
Grade:
[Poll link for app users]
Grade the Dodgers' Side of the Swap
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A 62% (28,677)
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B 27% (12,311)
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C 8% (3,588)
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D 2% (910)
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F 2% (843)
Total votes: 46,329
Boston Red Sox
Give: OF Mookie Betts ($27MM in 2020); SP David Price (approximately $48MM through 2022)
Get: OF Alex Verdugo (1.078 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2024); SP/RP Brusdar Graterol (0.029 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2025)
Grade:
[Poll link for app users]
Grade the Red Sox' Side of the Swap
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C 30% (13,573)
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B 27% (11,980)
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D 18% (7,929)
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A 13% (5,891)
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F 12% (5,613)
Total votes: 44,986
Minnesota Twins
Give: SP/RP Brusdar Graterol (0.029 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2025)
Get: RHP Kenta Maeda ($12MM through 2023 with significant performance incentives)
Grade:
[Poll link for app users]
Grade the Twins' Side of the Swap
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B 42% (17,771)
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A 25% (10,418)
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C 21% (8,715)
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D 8% (3,364)
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F 4% (1,745)
Total votes: 42,013
Camp Battles: Phillies Reserve Infielders
Over the coming weeks, as Spring Training approaches and then gets underway, we’ll look at some of the camp battles that arise. The goal here isn’t to be exhaustive — obviously, there’s a ton of jockeying across the game for roster spots and roles — but to cover the contests that are particularly interesting and/or that carry notable hot stove implications.
First up: the brewing fight in Phillies camp for a utility infield job.
If you’re wondering whether the Phils are really done adding pieces this winter, you’re not alone. There’s a lot to like about the additions of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius. But the roster would feel quite a bit more complete with a high-quality third baseman or center fielder plugged in. Picking up a hot corner stalwart makes particular sense, as it’d allow Scott Kingery to contribute in center and elsewhere. True, the club can allow things to play out and adjust in mid-season as needed — adding via trade or perhaps calling up top prospect Alec Bohm — but the early uncertainty could hurt in a hotly contested NL East.
Supposing the Phillies are indeed willing to roll with their existing options, their recent accumulation of veteran reserve infield candidates becomes all the more interesting. There’ll be quite a few assembled in Clearwater: Phil Gosselin, Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison, T.J. Rivera, Ronald Torreyes, and Neil Walker. The club has certainly signaled that it has significant plans for one or more lucky former big leaguers. Drawing such players to sign non-roster deals is all about dangling opportunity; given the volume of experienced players on hand, it seems reasonable to deduce that the club has offered a chance at the prize (MLB action) that all these men seek.
Make no mistake: these guys are looking for bounce backs from a performance perspective. There’s a reason they were available for no commitment and in such volume. It’s anyone’s guess just how this group will look in camp — let alone how they’ll perform if and when given the chance in 2020 — but the Phils are obviously hoping one or more shows a spark.
More on each of the candidates:
- Gosselin is obviously viewed as a trustworthy depth piece around the game, as six teams have given him MLB time over the past seven seasons. He’s not even close to being an average hitter over his time in the majors but did post a hefty (even in league context) .314/.405/.497 slash last year in 353 Triple-A plate appearances.
- Forsythe has a ton of experience and turned in a solid first half in 2019. But he faltered down the stretch and ended with a .227/.325/.353 batting line. Once a sneaky offensive threat, Forsythe has now turned in three straight seasons of below-average hitting.
- Harrison had hoped to find a return to prominence last year with the Tigers, but ended up limping through an injury-limited, ugly season. The 32-year-old’s big 2014 season is a distant memory. Then again, he was a high-quality all-around performer as recently as 2017. Even if the bat doesn’t quite come back to league-average levels, Harrison might be a worthwhile contributor on the bases and with the glove.
- Rivera has been hampered by health issues and hasn’t appeared in the majors (or even much in the upper minors) since 2017. But he showed a productive bat with the Mets when last he was at full strength and could be an intriguing rebound candidate at 31 years of age.
- Torreyes doesn’t excite with the bat, but he’s about as hard to strike out as they come and can play anywhere in the infield. Still just 27 years of age, he’s easily the youngest of those listed here. He’s also the only man on this list other than Gosselin that profiles as an option at shortstop.
- Walker is the only player covered here who turned in something like league-average hitting in 2019. It wasn’t up to his prior standard, but Walker did improve from a down 2018 season by slashing .261/.344/.395 with eight home runs in 381 plate appearances. He’s also the only one of the group that hits from the left side (as a switch-hitter), perhaps increasing his utility as a part-time option not only at third base but also on the right side of the infield.
It’s an interesting mix to watch. The Phils are otherwise rather settled in the infield, with Gregorius and Kingery set to line up opposite Jean Segura and Rhys Hoskins. As presently situated, one or (quite possibly) more of the players listed above will end up claiming jobs. There’s just one other infielder on the 40-man roster: youngster Arquimedes Gamboa, who is still trying to get his bat going and has yet to appear beyond the Double-A level.
Assessing Scott Boras’ Offseason
Regardless of whether you’re a fan of the outspoken Scott Boras, there is no denying he is one of the most successful and influential agents in the history of sports. Boras’ skill in landing mega-bucks for his clients has been on full display this offseason – a winter he entered representing seven players from MLBTR’s top 50 list of free agents. He has since secured a staggering $1,077,500,000 in guarantees for those clients. That figure trumps the predicted total of $842MM that we predicted for those players when free agency commenced.
Let’s check in on the work Boras did this winter for his biggest clients, including the three players who were the game’s highest-ranked free agents when the market opened…
Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees (MLBTR prediction: eight years, $256MM; actual contract: nine years, $324MM)
- One year after Boras secured the richest contract ever for a free agent – Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330MM pact – he almost surpassed it. In many ways, he did. Cole’s deal breezes past Harper’s in average annual value ($36MM), ranking first in baseball history in that category. And the 29-year-old Cole also owns the longest and largest contract a pitcher has ever signed.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Angels (MLBTR prediction: seven years, $235MM; actual contract: seven years $245MM)
- Nothing surprising about the value of this contract for Rendon, who was far and away the No. 1-ranked position player in this free-agent class. Among hitters, only new teammate Mike Trout ($35.5MM per year) earns more on an annual basis than Rendon’s $35MM.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals (MLBTR prediction: six years, $180MM; actual contract: seven years, $245MM)
- It wasn’t long ago there were questions as to whether Strasburg would opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his previous contract, making this payday especially impressive. Strasburg will turn 32 in June, and he owns a somewhat checkered injury history, yet the World Series MVP was still able to score $35MM per season. As they tend to do, the Nationals included deferrals in the deal (approximately $80MM), but those come with interest in this case, so they don’t impact the present-day value of the contract.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP, Blue Jays (MLBTR prediction: three years, $54MM; actual contract: four years, $80MM)
- On a per-inning basis, Ryu has been among the game’s premier pitchers last season, but he’s also a soon-to-be 33-year-old with a concerning injury history. But those factors didn’t stop Boras from crushing our Ryu projection and persuading a Toronto team that hasn’t finished .500 in a season since 2016 to splurge on the ex-Dodger.
Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (MLBTR prediction: four years, $58MM; actual contract: four years, $64MM)
- There’s nothing eye-opening about the value of Castellanos’ pact, though it’s arguably a surprise relative to the way his market unfolded. The big-hitting, fielding-challenged 27-year-old went unsigned until late January, after all, and he netted his deal shortly after a similarly valuable outfielder (the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna) signed for three fewer years and $46MM less. Moreover, Boras convinced the Reds to throw in opt-out clauses after each of the next two seasons, which will give Castellanos the power to return to free agency in the near future if he’s so inclined.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Reds (MLBTR prediction: two years, $20MM; actual contract: four years, $64MM)
- The other member of the Reds’ two-man $64MM club, Moustakas raked in more than triple what we forecast. That’s despite the fact that Moustakas entered this free-agency period coming off back-to-back offseasons in which he settled for relatively modest one-year guarantees. It’s also worth noting the 31-year-old wasn’t markedly more productive in 2019 than he was in either 2017 or ’18.
Dallas Keuchel, LHP, White Sox (MLBTR prediction: three years, $39MM; actual contract: three years, $55.5MM)
- Boras and Keuchel aimed too high in free agency last year, which is why the former AL Cy Young winner wound up without a job until the Braves added him for a $13MM commitment in June. Keuchel, 32, was more decent than great as a Brave, but he still managed to smash our predicted total this winter and get the multi-season guarantee he couldn’t find a year ago.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Astros?
The Astros have been a juggernaut dating back to 2017, evidenced by their three 100-win efforts, two American League pennants and World Series title. However, thanks to the sign-stealing scandal from their championship-winning campaign, the Astros’ recent excellence has been sullied in the minds of many observers. Although the club’s the reigning AL champion, it’s now going into 2020 with plenty to prove on the field. It also has a new GM and manager, having parted with the eminently successful Jeff Luhnow-A.J. Hinch duo after MLB issued each of them one-year suspensions for their roles in Houston’s misdeeds.
With spring training closing in, the Astros moved quickly to replace Luhnow and Hinch after firing them in mid-January. They tabbed former Rays vice president of baseball operations James Click on Monday to take over for Luhnow in the wake of selecting veteran Dusty Baker as their new manager last week. Click’s coming over from an organization known for doing a lot with a little, but despite the chaos that has enveloped the Astros, he’s not walking into a franchise low on talent. The 70-year-old Baker, meanwhile, is a calming influence and a longtime winner whom the Astros hope will help them sail through stormy waters.
Of course, one of the knocks on Baker is that he has never helped guide a team to a title in his 22 seasons as a manager. Could that change in 2020? Perhaps, though he’s inheriting a roster that has taken some hits this offseason. There’s no more ace Gerrit Cole, who left for the hated Yankees for a record contract after two straight sterling seasons in Houston. There’s also no more standout reliever Will Harris, who became a National in free agency, or offensive-minded catcher Robinson Chirinos (now a member of the division-rival Rangers). And the Astros haven’t done anything remotely splashy via the trade or free-agent markets (the latter of which is all but devoid of impact players now) to cover for their key departures or strengthen other aspects of their roster.
While this has not been a banner winter for the Astros, they do still look to be contenders on paper. Last year’s all-world offense – one fronted by Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Michael Brantley, among others – remains intact. Better still, the Astros could get full seasons from Alvarez (the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year whom they didn’t promote until almost halfway through June) and the Altuve-Springer-Carlos Correa trio after those stars were limited by injuries in the most recent campaign. And while Cole and now-Red Wade Miley are gone from their rotation, the Astros still boast an elite top two with reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. They’ll also get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery, though it’s up in the air how the rest of Houston’s starting staff will look once Opening Day arrives.
As nightmarish as this winter has been for the Astros, there’s no denying there’s plenty of talent still on hand. However, another 107-win season may be too much to ask – especially with their division having gotten stronger in recent months. The Athletics, a 97-win club twice in a row, look capable of challenging for the crown. Meantime, the Angels and Rangers appear to have made significant improvements after the pair stumbled to sub-.500 records a year ago. All that said, how do you expect the scandal-ridden Astros to fare this season?
(Poll link for app users)
How many Astros wins do you expect?
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90-94 37% (5,999)
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95-99 31% (4,910)
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85-89 14% (2,275)
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100 or more 10% (1,592)
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Fewer than 85 8% (1,238)
Total votes: 16,014
Who Signs First, Yasiel Puig Or Brock Holt?
After two winters of pretty stagnant free agent movement, it is somewhat remarkable that 48 of the players on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have already found new teams by February 2. We look back at all these signings and the nonstop array of misses in our — okay, my — set of picks in the free agent prediction contest, only two players remain available, both former All-Stars: the controversial Yasiel Puig (37th in our rankings) and longtime Red Sox utilityman Brock Holt (41st).
Jeff Todd examined Puig’s market earlier this week, listing a wide range of teams that could still be speculative fits for the outfielder. The problem facing Puig, however, is that “speculation” is all we have to go on after an offseason that has been short on hard news about the former Dodger. The Marlins and White Sox were both linked to Puig at various points, though those clubs seem to have already addressed their outfield needs, as Miami signed Corey Dickerson and Chicago acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers. An argument could be made that Puig might still be a fit for the Sox as a platoon partner with Mazara, though the Pale Hose seem committed to seeing if Mazara can still blossom as an everyday player (and if necessary, another right-handed outfielder could potentially be found at a lower price tag than Puig).
The Tigers were our pick for Puig’s next team back in November, though GM Al Avila recently said that Puig was “not a priority” for the club, despite Detroit’s lack of outfield depth. It could be a bit of gamesmanship on Avila’s part if there are some negotiations going on with Puig’s representatives, though it could also reflect a potential league-wide truth — Puig isn’t seen as a must-have option. He might not receive many looks until we get deeper into Spring Training, and opportunities develop due to injuries, or teams becoming dissatisfied with their in-house outfield choices.
Puig hasn’t been his biggest ally due to some of his off-the-field antics, though that focus on his personality tends to obscure the fact that he is still only 29 years old, and still a productive player. Even acknowledging that 2019 was a down year, Puig still batted .267/.327/.458 with 24 homers over 611 PA with the Reds and Indians, good for a league-average 100 OPS+ and 101 wRC+. You have to figure that some team will eventually take the leap to sign Puig because of what he has demonstrated over his seven MLB seasons.
Holt is older (31) than Puig and seemingly has none of the baggage, as Holt was popular with both teammates and fans over seven years with the Red Sox. Holt has been a classic jack-of-all-trades over his career, making at least nine starts at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher and filling in whenever a need has arisen. For instance, Holt has primarily played second base over the last two years due to Dustin Pedroia‘s ongoing knee problems. Over 2295 plate appearances, Holt has also provided a solid average (.271) and on-base percentage (.340), even if his .374 slugging percentage doesn’t promise much pop.
Given the trend towards multi-positional players in today’s game, it is somewhat surprising that Holt is still looking for a new team. With so many clubs seemingly trying to develop a young player into their own version of a super-utilityman like Holt, you’d think one team would have moved to sign the 1.0 version now that he has hit the open market. Then again, the catch-22 of Holt’s versatility is that while it makes him a fit on virtually any team in baseball, it also (like Puig’s situation) doesn’t make him a “priority” of a signing. As in, teams will turn to Holt to fill roster holes, but only after they see if their current utility candidates can pan out.
The Reds and Blue Jays have both shown interest in Holt this winter, and the Red Sox also had some talks about a reunion early in the offseason, though there hasn’t been any news on that front since Chaim Bloom was hired as Boston’s chief baseball officer.
We still have time before Spring Training opens, so it might yet be a while before either Puig or Holt put pen to paper on a new contract. But which do you think will be the first to land with a team?
Which player will sign first?
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Brock Holt 70% (10,561)
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Yasiel Puig 30% (4,486)
Total votes: 15,047
Extension Candidate: J.T. Realmuto
It has been almost exactly one full year since J.T. Realmuto became a member of the Phillies, and needless to say, the Phils didn’t swing that trade with the intention of only keeping Realmuto for two seasons. There has been talk of a potential contract extension between the two sides for several months, with mutual interest between both Realmuto and the club in a long-term commitment.
First things first, however, the All-Star catcher and the team are headed towards an arbitration hearing after a rather large difference in their submitted salary figures. The Phillies offered Realmuto $10MM, while the backstop and his camp are looking for $12.4MM, in part out of a desire to move the line forward for future catchers going through the arb process.
It’s possible that this hearing could be avoided altogether if a Realmuto extension includes the 2020 season, though the Phillies could prefer to deal with Realmuto’s 2020 salary as a separate matter for luxury tax purposes. Since every player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value of their contact, an extension that covers the 2020 season would put Realmuto’s value for the coming year at a much higher total than $10MM or $12.4MM, and thus would put the Phillies much closer to the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. As per Roster Resource, the Phillies are already close to the line with a projected tax number of roughly $204.6MM.
As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury noted back in November, a Realmuto extension that didn’t begin until the 2021 season would give the Phillies some extra breathing room under the tax limit. Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and (if a club option isn’t exercised) David Robertson are all scheduled for free agency, which removes $45MM in salary obligations off the books.
If Realmuto’s extension doesn’t begin until 2021, however, that also changes the earning framework. Realmuto turns 29 in March, so an extension would therefore begin with his age-30 season, knocking one year of his prime out of the contractual conversation.
That said, being out of his 20’s won’t stop Realmuto from landing one of the richest contracts ever awarded to a catcher. The Oklahoma native has delivered four straight years of outstanding play, hitting .283/.335/.464 with 74 home runs over 2248 plate appearances for the Marlins and Phillies since the start of the 2016 season. Defensively, Realmuto has been an above-average catcher over that stretch, and his glovework took a big step forward in 2019, as Baseball Prospectus ranked him at or near the top of the list in framing, blocking, and throwing out baserunners. (Realmuto won his first career Gold Glove for his efforts.)
Health-wise, there isn’t too much concern for Realmuto after six MLB seasons. While he underwent right meniscus surgery in September, the procedure was considered to be more of a general cleanup, and nothing that would keep Realmuto from missing any time this season or even in Spring Training. His only injured list appearance was a three-week stint in April 2018 due to a back contusion, and both the Marlins and Phillies have sporadically played Realmuto at first base to help keep him fresh while still keeping his bat in the lineup.
Yasmani Grandal‘s four-year, $73MM free agent deal with the White Sox from November provides a fresh comparable for a Realmuto extension, and gives Realmuto’s agents at CAA Sports a clear floor for negotiations. Grandal received his deal entering his age-31 season, so an easy case could be made for Realmuto to receive at least a five-year, $91.25MM pact.
As we saw with Realmuto’s arbitration case, he has an eye towards helping catchers of the future, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him seek an extension that hits a couple of notable benchmarks — a deal that would make him the third catcher to both earn a contract worth $100MM or more (after Joe Mauer and Buster Posey) and also earn $20MM in average annual value (after Mauer and Yadier Molina). Something as simple as a five-year, $100MM extension would check both of those boxes, though I could see Realmuto seeking a bit more in order to top Molina’s $20MM AAV.
Matching or surpassing the $23MM average annual value of Mauer’s contract probably isn’t feasible, as that record-setting eight-year/$184MM deal began with Mauer’s age-28 season. Offering a higher AAV over a shorter timeframe has some advantages for Philadelphia, as the team wouldn’t be paying Realmuto too deep into his mid-30’s, though the Phillies might prefer to spread Realmuto’s value out to lessen his luxury tax hit.
Could a six-year deal be palatable for the Phillies? Realmuto has been a durable performer, as mentioned earlier, and he could be transitioned into a first base role as he approaches his mid-30’s. Depending on what the Phillies decide to do with Rhys Hoskins in terms of a future extension, Realmuto could even be a candidate to take over first base after the 2023 season, which is Hoskins’ final year of team control. Philadelphia has a few interesting but non-elite catching prospects (Rafael Marchan, Deivy Grullon, Rodolfo Duran) who could be groomed as Realmuto’s eventual backup or successor, or perhaps even turned into trade chips if Realmuto ends up having the catcher position on lockdown for first half of the decade.
Six years could end up being a bridge too far for the Phillies, though Realmuto could have some leverage in pointing out the weakness of the projected 2020-21 free agent catching market. While some decent backstops will be available, none are anywhere near Realmuto’s level, and his departure would leave Philadelphia back at square one behind the plate. For a Phillies team that plans to become a consistent contender and has already shown its willingness to spend, letting arguably the sport’s best catcher walk away in free agency would seem like a curious move, especially given the significant package of young talent (Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart) the Phils gave up to get Realmuto from Miami in the first place.
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