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Trade Candidate: Jose Quintana

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The Cubs, in the wake of a 2019 showing that can’t be classified as much other than a brutal disappointment, are now facing several fascinating offseason questions. Among them: Which person should they choose to succeed ousted championship manager Joe Maddon? Should they shop Kris Bryant or any other stars? Should they make a serious effort to re-sign soon-to-be free agent Nicholas Castellanos? There may not be an obvious answer to any of those questions, but there is in regards to the future of left-hander Jose Quintana. Should the Cubs exercise his $11.5MM option (in lieu of a $1MM buyout) for next season? Absolutely.

To be clear, 2019 was not a stellar season for Quintana, whom the Cubs acquired from the White Sox in July 2017 in what could go down as a costly trade for the North Siders. The Cubs gave up then-prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, two players who now look as if they’ll be cornerstones for the White Sox. It was understandable from the Cubs’ perspective at the time, as Quintana was then one of the game’s most underrated front-line workhorses – not to mention someone on a sweetheart contract.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, Quintana simply hasn’t produced like the under-the-radar standout from the White Sox since they got him. At that point, Quintana was coming off four straight seasons of 200-plus innings – an 814 2/3-frame span in which he notched a 3.35 ERA/3.34 FIP with 7.73 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9. The Cubs’ Quintana hasn’t amassed more than 188 2/3 innings in a season, and his run prevention has fallen off since his South Side salad days. Quintana owns a less impressive 4.23 ERA/3.95 FIP in 429 2/3 frames as a Cub.

To Quintana’s credit, he has struck out 8.55 hitters per nine against 2.83 walks since changing Chicago addresses. His 91-92 mph average fastball velocity and roughly 8 percent swinging-strike rate have also remained intact in recent years. So, unlike some other prominent pitchers whose bottom-line results have recently declined (Chris Archer?), Quintana’s far from broken. It’s pretty clear Quintana’s still an asset, though whether the Cubs see him as integral enough to keep in 2020 – his last year of team control – is up in the air.

Again, it should be a slam dunk to say yes to Quintana’s option. But will the Cubs shop the soon-to-be 31-year-old around after picking it up? On one hand, the answer should be no. The Cubs don’t have clear non-Quintana solutions in their rotation aside from Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester, especially with Cole Hamels set for free agency, and they’re not teeming with young starters who are about to take the league by storm. With that in mind, keeping Quintana would be a perfectly defensible choice from the team’s perspective. On the other hand, there’s a case the Cubs are really in position to shake things up this winter, and parting with Quintana could prove to be part of their restructuring. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein was upset with Chicago’s performance off a playoff berth a year ago, so he may well be apoplectic behind the scenes now after a late collapse and no October ball this season.

One problem for Chicago, which is leery of the luxury tax, is that it hardly has an endless supply of spending room. The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll a little over $203MM, per Cot’s. MLBTR’s Chicago aficionado, Tim Dierkes, forecasts something in the $205MM range (slightly below the tax) for next season. Including arbitration projections and excluding likely non-tender Addison Russell, the Cubs come in around $180MM. Finding a way to shave Quintana’s money via trade would free up quite a bit more spending space for the club while perhaps opening the door for a major upgrade (would it pursue Gerrit Cole?). And it shouldn’t be that challenging for the Cubs to find a taker for Quintana, who’s better than the extreme majority of pending free-agent starters.

Pound for pound, aside from Cole, opt-out candidate Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, are there any free agents-to-be who are clearly preferable to Quintana? Hamels? Dallas Keuchel? Jake Odorizzi? Arguably, but they’ll all come at higher commitments than what Quintana’s owed next year. Quintana’s affordability could help persuade the Cubs to retain him, but if they shop him in an effort to make over their roster, there should be a solid amount of interest from around the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Record Money For Gerrit Cole?

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.

Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.

Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.

There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.

It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Will Gerrit Cole's guarantee exceed $217MM?
Yes 79.11% (5,846 votes)
No 20.89% (1,544 votes)
Total Votes: 7,390

MLBTR Originals

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It’s been awhile since we’ve rounded up original content from the staff here at MLBTR. On a slow morning on the eve of the World Series, let me do the honor of gathering those eggs…

  • Just this morning, Mark Polishuk looked back on the trade that almost happened between our two World Series combatants. If exploring the multiverse is your thing, you’ll enjoy the alternative realities Mark cooked up.
  • MLBTR resident logistician Jeff Todd looks under the couch cushions in Flushing to see how much help the Mets will have in solving their payroll predicament this winter.
  • Connor Byrne took a comprehensive look at the market for Jackie Bradley Jr. The Red Sox glove-first centerfielder appears available for purchase should an interested party come calling. We know the Reds have had interest in the past, but read Connor’s piece to chew over who else might be interested in JBJ.
  • Though we can’t take credit for these openings, there’s no shame in keeping a lookout for a better J-O-B. The Orioles have some roles to fill, and we’re happy to pass these posted vacancies along to any who might have missed them. 
  • Speaking of job openings, there are still plenty of open managerial vacancies about which we can speculate. Even with Joe Maddon reuniting with his old flame, we still have the Mets, Phillies, Padres, Cubs, Pirates, Royals and Giants looking for new skippers. The Phillies managerial vacancy, however, is the one you can speculate about thanks to this poll.
  • And if polls are your thing, look no further. There are plenty of opportunities to weigh in here at MLBTR. Take an opportunity to cast your vote and see what the masses think about any number of baseball’s most fickle sticklers, such as who’s gonna win the World Series, what sparked the Nationals turnaround, CC Sabathia’s Hall of Fame case, the future of Joe Maddon’s Angels, or most pressing of all, the non-tender case for Kevin Pillar.
  • Lastly, never forget to check in weekly to chat with the MLBTR staff. Read the transcripts of the most recent chats here and here.

Looking For A Match In A Jackie Bradley Jr. Trade

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Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. has been popular in trade rumors in the past, though no club has come up with a compelling enough offer to pry him out of Boston yet. Now, however, Bradley is approaching his last year of team control – in which he’ll make a projected $11MM – and the Red Sox may be on the verge of reducing payroll. With those factors in mind, Bradley may be heading into the offseason as one of the majors’ strongest trade candidates. Bradley, with his combination of defensive adeptness, passable offense and quality base running, remains valuable enough on the field for the Red Sox to tender him a contract at a fairly high cost. But if the Red Sox decide it would be wise to move on via trade in the coming weeks, there would surely be interest from elsewhere. Bradley probably isn’t going to require a sizable return in a trade, after all, and free agency isn’t exactly rife with appealing center fielders teams could count on as starters.

Here’s a look at several clubs that could inquire about Bradley…

  • Braves: Center field isn’t a pressing need for the Braves, as they could continue to go with superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. as their man pick there (at least until hyped prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters show up). The Braves also have two other viable outfield starters in Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis, though they’re facing a decision on the latter’s $6MM club option/$2MM buyout. If the Braves part with Markakis, would they send Acuna to a corner? Even if Markakis stays, MLBTR’s Steve Adams raised an interesting question when the two of us were discussing Bradley: Would Atlanta and Boston consider a swap around Bradley and Inciarte? Both teams would come out with capable center fielders, with the Red Sox cutting some of their payroll for 2020. They’d get two years’ control over Inciarte, who’s due a guaranteed $16.025MM through 2021 (including a $1.025MM buyout for 2022).
  • Cubs: Center field was a sore spot during a bitterly disappointing 2019 for the Cubs, whose top choice, Albert Almora, posted horrific numbers. The Cubs had to consistently turn to Jason Heyward amid Almora’s struggles, so they could simply keep the former in center next next year. But if Chicago wants to shift Heyward back to right field on a full-time basis in favor of a more traditional center fielder, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team at least check in on Bradley. Who selected Bradley in the first round of the 2011 draft? Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, then Boston’s general manager.
  • Diamondbacks: Arizona may have its center fielder in breakout star Ketel Marte, though if the club would rather put him at second, a Bradley pursuit would make sense. Like Epstein, Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen happened to be in the Red Sox’s front office when they drafted Bradley.
  • Giants: The Giants already have a pricey veteran center fielder in Kevin Pillar, who’s projected to make $9.7MM in 2020. Whether they’ll keep or non-tender Pillar is up in the air, though, considering the 30-year-old’s offensive limitations. Although Bradley isn’t a world-beater at the plate in his own right, his .317 career on-base percentage is an improvement over Pillar’s .296 mark. That said, even if the Giants were to cut the cord on Pillar, it’s possible they’d just hand center to Steven Duggar to evaluate whether he’s fit for the role.
  • Mets: Center field is a question for the Mets, who would likely be better off playing Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto in the corners instead of forcing them into the outfield’s most challenging position. The problem, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted Friday, is the club’s lack of financial flexibility. Fitting Bradley into their payroll would be tough without shedding a similar salary or salaries (Jed Lowrie, for example).
  • Phillies: The Phillies figure to have Bryce Harper and the returning Andrew McCutchen in the corners next season, though it’s unclear what they’ll do in center. While the team does have some in-house options in Odubel Herrera, Scott Kingery, Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn, it’s highly debatable whether any would be preferable to Bradley. Herrera might not even play for the Phillies again after missing most of this year because of a violation of the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.
  • Rangers: This would partly hinge on whether the Rangers want to deploy slugger Joey Gallo as a full-time center fielder next year. If so, Bradley to Texas would be all the more improbable. Gallo aside, the Rangers have seen Delino DeShields struggle mightily as their primary center field choice over the past couple seasons.
  • Reds: Not only does Cincinnati seem to be preparing for an aggressive, payroll-increasing offseason, but center field stands out as an area it could plausibly upgrade. However, that depends on whether the team wants to line up Nick Senzel in center, where he played as a rookie in 2019, or move him to second base.
  • White Sox: A change of Sox for Bradley looks like a possibility, as Chicago is in obvious need of outfield help. The unit may have been the worst of its kind in 2019, when Leury Garcia and Adam Engel combined for uninspiring production in center. Going forward, only left fielder Eloy Jimenez looks like a lock to return as a starter next season. Likewise, stud prospect Luis Robert could play an important role in a year, though his forthcoming arrival won’t stop the Sox from seeking veteran help. Of course, if the Sox decide Robert’s ready to take over center imminently, they’ll probably be in the market for a big-hitting right fielder instead of someone like Bradley.

The Mets’ Payroll Predicament

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The first anniversary of the Mets’ hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen is fast approaching. There have been some ups and downs, as might be expected. He’s currently looking for a new skipper and plotting a course for the coming offseason. One thing that is clear: the Mets are trying to win now. Van Wagenen’s task is to end a three-year postseason drought. But he’s going to have a tough time adding to his existing slate of talent unless he’s handed a larger purse to work with this winter. It’s not exactly a new situation in Queens, but it’s one worth examining anew with the market soon set to open.

The win-now mission was already evident, but its immediacy was highlighted and enhanced by the organization’s mid-summer transactions and non-transactions. On July 12th, the Mets sat 11 games under .500. By the time they had agreed to acquire Marcus Stroman on July 28th, they had closed that to five games under. And on the day after the deadline, the Queens denizens were three shy of even and in the middle of a wondrous hot streak that totally flipped the script on the season.

Trouble was, the Mets’ fate was always been tied inextricably to stumbles from the teams ahead of them. And they needed more than they could get. The Mets matched or bested a laundry list of mid-level National League teams. That was something of an accomplishment. But the outcome — no realistic hope entering the final week of the season — was exceedingly likely at the time of the deadline. With so many teams clustered ahead of the Mets late this summer, it was all but inevitable that a few would emerge. As it turned out, two of those ballclubs played about as well as the Mets have over the final two months of the campaign. With their preexisting advantages, the Nats and Brewers cruised ahead of their rivals in New York. This is why those playoff odds charts seemed so gloomy in late July.

So what was the point of that win-now-oriented deadline approach? Well, it certainly put more butts in the seats down the stretch. It helped breathe life into what had been a moribund season. It enabled the Mets to return to the ranks of the winning (86-76) and perhaps launched some forward momentum.

More importantly, though, this past summer’s decisionmaking was the start of the construction of the 2020 roster. Adding Stroman, while dumping Jason Vargas, was mostly salary-neutral for 2019. But it put a big number on the books for 2020 and cost the Mets one near-majors hurler (along with a further-off prospect). Hanging onto Zack Wheeler, who seems exceedingly likely to receive and decline a qualifying offer, meant foregoing a chance to recoup upper-level prospect depth in preference for a half season of Wheeler’s pitching and likely draft compensation.

Taking on Robinson Cano’s contract and sacrificing some intriguing prospects to get Edwin Diaz had already set the Mets down this trail. The 2019 trade deadline was Van Wagenen and co. pressing bravely on for glory rather than seeking a path back to relative safety.

So … let’s take stock of where the Mets stand with the offseason upon us. Juan Lagares and Todd Frazier are off the books, but that doesn’t mean there’s money to spend on replacements or other upgrades. Here are some of the major expenses that are either locked in or all but assured to be picked up:

Guaranteed Salary

  • Yoenis Cespedes: $29MM
  • Robinson Cano: $20.25MM (net of Mariners’ portion of obligation)
  • Jacob deGrom: $23MM salary ($12MM deferred); $10MM signing bonus payment 1/2/20
  • Jed Lowrie: $9MM salary; $1MM bonus payment in 11/15/19 & $500K bonus payment 1/15/20 (contract also includes $2.5MM bonus payment 1/15/21)
  • Wilson Ramos: $9.25MM
  • Jeurys Familia: $11MM ($1MM deferred)
  • Justin Wilson: $5MM
  • Total: $105MM payable during 2019-20 offseason/2020 season

Projected Arbitration Salaries

Other Obligations

There are many ways to tally all of this, and we don’t know exactly how the Mets are thinking about it internally, but that’s a big slate of preexisting commitments. In the past, the club has reportedly treated Wright’s ongoing payouts as part of its payroll, even though he’s finished playing. Whether that’s the case — and what exactly the insurance work-out looks like — isn’t known. It’s also not totally clear how the club views the deGrom and Familia deferrals or Lowrie’s final bonus payout.

If we tabulate only cash owed this winter and in the 2020 season, and presume the team will be paying $3MM of the Wright contract, that still puts the cash payroll at a minimum of $161.5MM (presuming league-minimum salaries for ten roster spots not otherwise accounted for by the players listed above). Perhaps the team has it a bit lower or a bit higher for its internal purposes, but that seems like a good number to start with based upon what we do know.

Trouble is, the Mets have never yet started a season with a payroll that reached $160MM. They were close to $150MM in 2009 and over that amount in each of the past three seasons. But it seems the Mets are right about at capacity, barring a northward movement in spending allocation for the MLB roster.

So, unless the Wilpon ownership group is preparing to commit more cash to the cause, the front office is going to have to get very creative. The Mets roster does have quite a bit of talent, but it’s also the same essential unit that fell short this year and could certainly stand to be supplemented in several areas. There’s no true center fielder. We all know how the bullpen looked in 2019. The rotation is missing one piece and still also needs depth. Mis-fitting first baseman Dominic Smith might bring back a useful and affordable player, though it isn’t as if he alone will nab a quality pre-arb starter. And the farm system has already been mined for the aforementioned trades, making it tough to commit further prospect capital.

Big-contract swaps? Trading away quality, younger players? A deeper dig into the farm? There are conceivable possibilities, though none jump off the page as being obviously beneficial. There’ll be high stakes and tough choices to make for the Mets front office this winter — unless, perhaps, ownership has a winter payroll bonus planned for Van Wagenen and company to play with.

The Rockies Need To Make Tough Calls On Some Key Players

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The Rockies poured $106MM into their bullpen prior to the 2018 season, signing Wade Davis to a three-year, $52MM contract (the highest annual rate ever promised to a reliever) and inking right-hander Bryan Shaw and lefty Jake McGee to matching three-year, $27MM deals. To this point, none of that trio has pitched up to his abilities, with 2019 being a particularly brutal year thanks to Davis’ stunning struggles. In 42 2/3 innings, Davis posted an 8.65 ERA with career-worst walk and home run rates. Shaw, meanwhile, posted an ERA north of 5.00 for the second straight season, while McGee managed a tolerable 4.35 ERA in an injury-shortened campaign.

Those underperformances not only combined to play a significant role in Colorado’s playoff miss but have also hamstrung the Rockies entering the current offseason. Owner Dick Monfort has plainly stated that the team lacks payroll flexibility. It’s instinctual to suggest that the Rockies need to move some contracts this winter in order to help free up some payroll capacity, but that’s far easier said than done; beyond the poor showings from that high-priced trio of relievers, each has a 2021 option that further complicates matters (hat tip to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post for the observation on Davis and Shaw).

Davis’ contract stipulates that his $15MM option for the 2021 season becomes a player option if he finishes just 30 games in 2020. He’s reached that total in each of the past four seasons. The Rockies (or another team) at least have direct control over that, however, and could simply pitch Davis in a setup or middle relief capacity. Based on his 2019 output, they’d hardly be unjustified in moving him to a lower-leverage role. They already began giving Scott Oberg save opportunities over Davis in 2019 anyhow.

The more problematic contractual options belong to Shaw and McGee, each of whom will see a $9MM option for 2021 become fully guaranteed with a full, healthy season. McGee would need to appear in 65 games next year in order to boost his combined games total from 2019-20 to 110, thus triggering that guarantee. He hasn’t appeared in 65 games since 2014, so perhaps it’s a long shot anyway, but the clause does the Rockies no favors in attempting to move him.

Shaw’s contract is probably the biggest concern. It’s structured the same as McGee’s, in that he’ll trigger his option with 110 appearances between 2019-20. Unlike McGee, though, Shaw was fully healthy in 2019 and took the ball 70 times. He only needs to appear in 40 games next season for another $9MM to be tacked onto that contract. Shaw, who’ll turn 32 this winter, has a 5.61 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 in 126 1/3 innings since signing with the Rockies. It’s arguable that they’d be better off releasing him rather than risking that $9MM salary vesting in 2021, but doing so would mean forgoing a chance to shed even a portion of that commitment in a trade.

So if those three deals are all extraordinarily difficult to move, then where else could the Rockies look to create flexibility? Charlie Blackmon’s $108MM contract still has two guaranteed years remaining before he encounters an opt-out provision. He’s owed $21MM in both 2020 and 2021 before he can opt for free agency or a $21MM salary for the 2022 season. His contract has a second player option for 2023 that was initially valued at $8MM, but he’s already well on his way to maxing out the escalators that’d push that option as high as $18MM. Those escalators are based on plate appearances, and Blackmon is already over halfway there after tallying 1330 trips to the dish over the past two seasons.

Were he still an elite all-around player, perhaps that’d be viewed in a different light. But while Blackmon is still a terrific hitter (.314/.364/.576 in 2019), he’s no longer a base-stealing threat and was widely panned by defensive statistics in 2019. Just three years after a 43-steal campaign in 2016, Blackmon went 2-for-7 in stealing bags in 2019. Defensive Runs Saved (-8), Ultimate Zone Rating (-10.6) and Outs Above Average (-9) all soured on his glovework, too, even with a shift from center field to right field.

With two years and $25MM to go on Ian Desmond’s ill-fated $70MM contract, there’s little hope of moving him. The same is true of Daniel Murphy (owed $14MM in 2020) after he logged an 87 OPS+ / 86 wRC+ in an injury-shortened season in 2019. And, of course, the Rockies would surely be loath to trade franchise icon Nolan Arenado just one year into his record-setting extension (seven years, $234MM in new money, bringing the total to eight years and $260MM).

So how can the Rockies go about cleaning up the payroll a bit while addressing some holes on the roster? Their best bet would be to trade some higher-end arbitration-eligible players. Fans would bristle at the notion of trading Trevor Story and, perhaps to a lesser extent, righty Jon Gray. But both players have just two seasons of club control remaining before free agency. An extension for either doesn’t seem especially likely when Monfort is already citing payroll issues. Story is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $11.5MM in 2020 while Gray is pegged at $5.6MM. Not only that, but both would assuredly net some high-end young talent that could strengthen the farm. Plus, the Rockies have a premium middle-infield prospect in Brendan Rodgers who could hypothetically replace Story in 2020 (if he recovers sufficiently from shoulder surgery).

General manager Jeff Bridich’s comments at the team’s year-end press conference heavily suggested that he believes this club can turn things around, as currently constructed. That could prove to be the case, but this is a team that finished 20 games under .500 with a -123 run differential. The Rockies didn’t just finish 35 games out of first place, they finished 18 back from a Wild Card spot and 14 games back from even sitting in second place in the NL West. And they already have more money projected for next year’s payroll (including arbitration projections) than they spent on the roster in 2019. This feels like a team that needs a lot more than just a handful of rebounds to get back on track. Bridich and has staff have some tough choices this winter, but cashing in on two of his best trade assets in Story and Gray would be a logical start.

Evaluating The $200MM Contracts: Hitters

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Third baseman Anthony Rendon is currently trying to help lead the Nationals to a World Series, but he’ll have a busy several weeks ahead when his team’s season ends. The 29-year-old, a first-time All-Star in 2019, is slated to reach free agency in roughly a month. Rendon will be hands down the premier position player on the open market, where only he and Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole will stand legitimate chances to rake in contracts of $200MM or more. In landing a $200MM-plus guarantee, Rendon would be joining a select group of stars whom franchises made massive commitments to in hopes they’d eventually help push their rosters over the top. The past doesn’t necessarily dictate the future, but let’s nonetheless take a look at how the $200MM position player club has fared so far…

  • Mike Trout, CF, Angels (10 years, $360MM): It’s way too soon to evaluate this extension. Trout’s only one season into it, though the best player in the game/future Hall of Famer did continue to amaze in Year 1 of the pact.
  • Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies (13 years, $330MM): As with Trout, it’s too early to say how well Harper’s contract will work out. But Harper, Rendon’s former teammate in Washington, did perform well in the first year of what’s sure to stand as the richest free-agent contract ever (at least until Mookie Betts hits the market a year from now).
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins (13 years, $325MM): We’re a half-decade into this monumental extension, a gamble that didn’t really work out in the low-budget Marlins’ favor. The hulking Stanton did win an NL MVP with the club in 2017, but he combined to appear in just 193 games during injury-shortened 2015-16 seasons. Penny-pinching Miami got Stanton’s contract off its books after his MVP campaign in trading him to the Yankees, with whom he was very good (but not elite) last year. Stanton barely played during the ’19 regular season as he dealt with more injury troubles, though the complete story on his year hasn’t been written yet. With New York heading for the ALCS, Stanton could still emerge as a postseason hero in the coming weeks. Regardless, they owe him huge money through 2027.
  • Manny Machado, 3B, Padres (10 years, $300MM): Like Trout and Harper, Machado just received his payday a year ago, so it’d be premature to offer an assessment on it. However, Machado didn’t wow in the first year of it, which may not augur well for the Padres.
  • Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees (10 years, $275MM): Remember this? After seven years on the once-record contract he signed with the Rangers, Rodriguez – whom Texas traded to the Yankees before 2004 – opted out of it on the heels of the 2007 season. He wound up with another historic payday, in which the highs were extremely high and the lows extremely low. A-Rod continued to thrive from 2008-11 (the Yankees wouldn’t have won their most recent title in ’09 without his brilliant playoff performance), but injuries and a 162-game suspension in 2014 for performance-enhancing drugs weighed him down over the next several years. Rodriguez wasn’t able to finish out the deal (at least on the field), as the Yankees released him in August 2016. However, the should-be Hall of Famer did collect the remaining money on his contract.
  • Alex Rodriguez, SS, Rangers (10 years, $252MM): This guy again. A-Rod’s first $200MM-plus pact was an earth-shaking gamble for the Rangers, who expected him to “allow this franchise to fulfill its dream of continuing on its path to becoming a World Series champion,” then-owner Tom Hicks said when they signed him going into 2001. Rodriguez did his part, including during an AL MVP-winning season in 2013, but the team floundered in spite of his excellence. In one of the most significant trades in the history of the sport, the Rangers sent Rodriguez to the Yankees after just three seasons.
  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers (eight years, $248MM): Cabrera was coming off his second straight MVP-winning campaign and his eighth All-Star season when he scored this payday in 2014, but it still looked like a questionable move for the team back then. Cabrera already had two years left on his previous contract, meaning this one didn’t kick in until his age-29 campaign in 2016. While Cabrera did continue as an offensive force that year, the future Hall of Famer hasn’t been the same player since. Cabrera has managed a minuscule 0.2 fWAR in upward of 1,200 plate appearances dating back to 2017. He’ll be on the rebuilding Tigers’ books at exorbitant salaries through 2023. Not ideal.
  • Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels (10 years, $240MM): Pujols is unquestionably an all-time great (which explains why the Angels paid him so much), but he hasn’t played like it since leaving St. Louis before the 2012 season. Set to play his age-40 season and second-last year of his contract in 2020, Pujols has posted a mere 6.4 fWAR in almost 5,000 PA as an Angel. He’s fresh off his third consecutive minus-fWAR campaign, and it’s fair to say he now counts as someone the Angels wish they wouldn’t have signed to one of the richest contracts ever.
  • Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners (10 years, $240MM): It was a stunner in December 2013 when the Mariners emerged as the winners of the Cano sweepstakes, luring him from the big-spending Yankees. The Mariners were mired in a 12-year playoff drought then and hoping the longtime star would help dig them out of it. Six years later, the M’s still haven’t returned to the postseason. That’s hardly Cano’s fault, though, as he has recorded mostly stellar production throughout his contract so far. However, Cano received an 80-game PED suspension last year, which proved to be his final season in Seattle. The club dealt Cano to the Mets in a blockbuster, farm system-restocking trade for the M’s last winter. Cano just put up a career-worst year in his return to New York, likely leaving the Mets wishing they didn’t take the risk.
  • Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies (seven years, $234MM): Toss Arenado on the “too early to evaluate” pile. The extension he signed before this season won’t take effect until next year.
  • Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (10 years, $225MM): Votto landed this extension in the wake of the 2011 season, the former NL MVP’s second of six All-Star campaigns, though it didn’t kick in until 2014. Now 36 years old, Votto just wrapped up a surprisingly pedestrian season, which is worrisome with four years and $100MM remaining on his contract. With the exception of 2019, the hitting virtuoso has done nothing but stand out at the plate. At this point, all the Reds can do is hope he’ll bounce back next year.
  • Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers (nine years, $214MM): In an effort to win a championship in his final years, now-late Tigers owner Mike Ilitch authorized an enormous guarantee for Fielder entering the 2012 season. Fielder did hold his own as a hitter from 2012-13, but the Tigers didn’t win a championship in either season, and they dealt the big-bodied slugger to the Rangers after that. The Fielder acquisition certainly wasn’t great for the Rangers, as he largely underwhelmed in their uniform from 2014-16 before neck injuries forced him to unofficially call it a career.

Former Big Leaguers Playing Abroad: NPB Hitters Roundup

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It’s always fun to keep an eye on familiar players who’ve taken their talents across the pond. Now that the 2019 season is in the books, it seemed an opportune time to check in. Numerous former big leaguers and others of note are playing abroad, many of them thriving in Asia’s top leagues.

We’ve seen foreign stints help spur big league revivals from quite a few players. Eric Thames, Miles Mikolas, and Chris Martin are among those that played significant roles in the 2019 MLB campaign. Whether any of the players covered below will do so remains to be seen, but there’s certainly a path.

We started by looking at position players and pitchers in the KBO, the top league in South Korea. Now we’re headed to Japan to examine Nippon Professional Baseball, generally considered the highest-grade league outside of North America. Remember, teams in these leagues face limits on the number of non-native players they can carry on a roster. That creates a lot of pressure to secure big production from those roster spots, which often spurs mid-season change.

Here’s a 2019 wrap on some interesting NPB hitters …

  • Infielder Brandon Laird was never able to carve out a steady MLB job, but has found a home in NPB. This year, he slashed a healthy .248/.333/.483 with 32 dingers in 553 plate appearances for the Chiba Lotte Marines. He was joined mid-season by Leonys Martin, who found some NPB success of his own after being cut loose by Indians. Over 228 plate appearances, Martin slashed .232/.342/.495 with 14 home runs. The good vibes were not there for former Twins slugger Kennys Vargas, who turned in an oddball .179/.324/.274 slash line with one home run and 16 walks through 102 plate appearances at NPB’s top level.
  • Appearing for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, former Padres and Angels outfielder Jabari Blash finally turned his talent into production at a top level of play. In 527 trips to the plate, he slashed .261/.397/.540 with 33 homers. The 30-year-old could at some point be a candidate to attempt a MLB return. Teammate Zelous Wheeler, briefly of the Yankees, batted .243/.320/.418 with 19 home runs. That’s a fair bit shy of Wheeler’s first four seasons with the Golden Eagles, during which time he delivered a collective OPS north of .800.
  • Believe it or not, another short-lived Yankee whose name begins with Z also contributed to a NPB club. Zoilo Almonte only received 174 plate appearances at the top league level for the Chunichi Dragons, but slashed a robust .329/.362/.506 in that time. The Dragons also get nice output from Dayan Viciedo, the 30-year-old former White Sox outfielder, who went for a .315/.374/.496 slash in 594 plate appearances. Viciedo has uncovered previously absent on-base ability in Japan and could perhaps be of interest to big league clubs once his current deal expires in 2021, though he’ll be 32 at that point.
  • Former Mariners outfielder Stefen Romero appeared again with the ORIX Buffaloes. He bounced back from a down 2018 to post 331 plate appearances of .305/.363/.539 hitting and slugged 18 homers. Romero never showed much of a spark in brief MLB action but was a productive hitter coming up through the minor-league ranks. He’ll soon turn 31 years of age. Otherwise, Chris Marrero couldn’t capitalize on his chances with the Buffaloes, managing only a .211/.256/.317 output over 133 plate appearances. Former Tigers outfielder Steven Moya wasn’t much better after an early-season trade to ORIX from the Chunichi Dragons, with a .244/.278/.397 slash in 255 trips to the dish.
  • Wladimir Balentien made his annual assault on NPB hurlers, launching 33 home runs in 468 plate appearances and turning in a hefty .280/.363/.554 overall output. The Curacaoan slugger seems content with the Yakult Swallows, having been with them for nine years. Despite his perennial dominance — Balentien is a career .273/.378/.558 hitter with 288 home runs in Japan — he’s now 35 years of age, so it seems unlikely he’ll seek a move back stateside. Likewise, Nori Aoki is likely settled back in his native land after wrapping up a generally successful big league tenure. But it’s worth noting that he’s still a capable performer at 37 years of age, having just slashed .297/.385/.442 in 565 plate appearances for the Swallows.
  • Kosuke Fukudome had a similar career arc to that of Aoki, but his production slipped to .256/.347/.397 this season — his age-42 campaign and seventh with the Hanshin Tigers since returning to Japan. The Tigers received better results out of Jefry Marte, formerly of the Tigers and Angels. Marte put up a nice .284/.381/.444 batting line in 412 plate appearances. Other notable names had less of an impact: Yangervis Solarte had a forgettable 20-game stint, while Efren Navarro struggled through 15 games with the organization’s main club.
  • After wrapping up a combustible MLB tenure, former Dodgers infielder Alex Guerrero has settled in with the Yomiuri Giants. He hit .237/.337/.526 with 21 dingers in 333 plate appearances this year and just hit a big postseason home run. Fellow former NL West infielder Christian Villanueva struggled with Japan’s Giants, managing only a .223/.325/.386 slash over 235 plate appearances.
  • It has been quite a while since we’ve seen Jose Lopez stateside (2012), but he is still going in Japan. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars slugger launched 31 long balls and slashed .241/.295/.461 this year, a step back from his recent output.
  • Lopez’s teammate, Neftali Soto, was once a prospect in the Reds organization but has found a home with the BayStars. In his second season with them, the infielder slashed .269/.348/.554 with 43 long balls — his second straight 40-homer campaign. One-time Cubs farmhand Xavier Batista has emerged with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. In the just-completed season, he turned in 423 plate appearances with 26 home runs, slashing a sturdy .269/.350/.513 on the season. Former Braves prospect Ernesto Mejia has carved out a career in Japan, but he followed a tepid 2018 showing with a subpar .211/.286/.422 effort in 147 plate appearances with the Saitama Seibu Lions.
  • From the what might’ve been department, a pair of Cuban sluggers that never played in affiliated ball have been monsters for the Fukuoka SoftBank Haws. Alfredo Despaigne knocked 36 dingers and slashed .259/.355/.520 over 519 plate appearances, while Yurisbel Gracial turned in an eye-opening performance with 410 plate appearances of .319/.365/.595 hitting and 28 homers.
  • While he received at least some MLB consideration when posted by his Taiwanese club, and landed with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters for a reasonably significant commitment, outfielder Wang Po-Jung had a forgettable first season in Japan. The 26-year-old slashed just .255/.321/.327 in 355 plate appearances.

Comparing Gerrit Cole To The $200MM Pitchers

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Astros right-hander and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole just mowed down the Rays for the second time in the teams’ LDS matchup. Thanks in large part to the sheer brilliance he displayed in the second and fifth games of the series, the Astros have moved on in the postseason and are one step from advancing to the World Series. No matter how the year ends for the Astros, though, Cole’s in for a prosperous few months as arguably the preeminent soon-to-be free agent in baseball.

Cole, who just turned 29 a month ago, looks likely to head into the winter with a realistic chance at securing a $200MM-plus contract. As noted earlier this week, just four other hurlers (David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke) have reached that milestone to this point. But how does Cole compare to each member of that group when they signed their deals? Let’s stack up Cole against the younger versions of those starters in several key categories…

  • Age when their contracts took effect: Price: 30; Kershaw: 26; Scherzer: 31; Greinke: 32
  • Career average fastball velocity – Cole: 96.1 mph; Price: 94.2; Kershaw 93.2; Scherzer: 93.4; Greinke: 92.3
  • Career ERA/FIP – Cole: 3.22/3.06; Price: 3.10/3.19; Kershaw: 2.61/2.88; Scherzer: 3.60/3.38; Greinke: 3.34/3.32
  • Career strikeout percentage – Cole: 27.6; Price: 23.4; Kershaw: 25.4; Scherzer: 25.7; Greinke: 21.6
  • Career walk percentage – Cole: 6.5; Price: 6.4; Kershaw: 8.3; Scherzer: 7.5; Greinke: 6.0
  • Career groundball percentage – Cole: 44.7; Price: 44.3; Kershaw: 43.9; Scherzer: 38.7; Greinke: 43.8
  • Career hard-contact percentage – Cole: 30.1; Price: 26.7; Kershaw: 24.4; Scherzer: 28.3; Greinke: 27.9

While the above numbers don’t tell the entire story, it’s inarguable that they carry significant importance when evaluating the usefulness of a pitcher. And there’s no doubt they make it clear that Cole’s career has compared quite favorably to all members of the $200MM class when they received their exorbitant paydays.

Adding to Cole’s appeal, he’ll journey to free agency as hands down the No. 1 starter on the market – someone who’s fresh off back-to-back dominant seasons, a third straight 200-inning campaign and perhaps a heroic playoff run. With all of those factors in mind, it would be perfectly reasonable for Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, to try to secure a contract in a record range for his client. Price ($217MM over seven years), Kershaw (7/$215MM), Scherzer (7/$210MM) and Greinke (6/$206.5MM) continue to lead the way for now, but they may have company soon.

MLBTR Poll: Most Desirable Managerial Opening?

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The Phillies fired Gabe Kapler on Thursday, leaving them as one of eight major league teams searching for a manager at the moment. Fellow National League clubs in the Padres, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Cubs are in the same position, while the Royals and Angels are seeking new skippers in the AL. The question is: Which team has the most desirable job?

For starters, we can probably rule out the Pirates and Royals. Both teams have been hamstrung by low payrolls, with notoriously penny-pinching ownership holding back Pittsburgh and Kansas City (a team whose ownership is in transition) coming off its second 100-loss season in a row. Neither team looks as if it’ll contend in the immediate future, and the same may apply to the Giants, though they are a club with big-spending capabilities and promising president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi at the helm. On the other hand, the rest of the league’s manager-needy organizations look to have decent odds of pushing for relevance sooner than later.

The Phillies just wrapped up their eighth consecutive non-playoff season, but with 81 wins, they weren’t exactly a basement dweller. Kapler’s successor will be taking over a team with big-time talent on hand (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola, to name a few) and the spending power to amply address its most obvious weaknesses this offseason.

Like the Phillies, the Padres have been suffering for too long. They’re fresh off their 13th straight year without a playoff berth, but they’re another team with front-line talent (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Chris Paddack). Moreover, the Padres remain loaded on the farm, and owner Ron Fowler has made it clear it’s time to start winning in 2020.

The Mets also have no shortage of top-line players, including ace Jacob deGrom and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. However, their managerial position is probably the most pressure-packed of all the openings. Previous skipper Mickey Callaway oversaw an 86-win team in 2019, but he dealt with scrutiny from the media, fans and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen from start to finish.

There’s also high expectations in Chicago, where even an exemplary record over five years wasn’t enough to keep Joe Maddon employed. The Cubs and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein gave Maddon the boot even though he helped them break a 108-year World Series drought in 2016 and led them to an overall 471-339 regular-season record with four playoff berths during his reign. But the Cubs, another financially well-off club with enviable high-end talent (Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Hendricks, for example), saw enough of Maddon after a late-season collapse and a non-playoff showing in 2019. Maddon’s replacement will be inheriting an 84-win team that will have playoff expectations for next year.

The Angels, who seem like the favorites to land Maddon next, are another franchise with a sense of urgency to win in 2020. Despite the presence of the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, they haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2014. The Halos haven’t even won a playoff game since October 2009, just a few months after drafting Trout.  With fourth-year general manager Billy Eppler set to enter the last season of his contract in 2020, it’s imperative for him to get this hire right (his previous selection of Brad Ausmus didn’t work out). Otherwise, he and the Angels’ next manager could be out a year from now.

That’s a basic overview of where the sport’s manager-less teams stand heading into the offseason. There are more factors you could consider, of course. Which job looks the most appealing to you?

(Poll link for app users)

Most desirable managerial opening?
Cubs 25.51% (4,655 votes)
Padres 18.95% (3,458 votes)
Phillies 16.62% (3,034 votes)
Angels 13.10% (2,391 votes)
Mets 10.78% (1,967 votes)
Giants 9.20% (1,680 votes)
Royals 3.07% (561 votes)
Pirates 2.77% (505 votes)
Total Votes: 18,251
Show all

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