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Is It Time For The Mets To Trade Noah Syndergaard?

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Judging solely by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard’s decline in performance this year, this summer doesn’t look like the time to trade the 26-year-old. But going by Syndergaard’s pre-2019 numbers and the amount of club control he has remaining, Thor would warrant a haul leading up to the trade deadline. For almost the entire season thus far, there haven’t been rumblings on MLBTR’s pages about a possible Syndergaard swap. The rumor mill has begun picking up since Tuesday, however.

With the deadline exactly three weeks away, the Brewers, Astros and Padres are among those who have demonstrated interest in Syndergaard. It’s probably fair to say even more teams will eye Syndergaard, if they haven’t already, though the Mets don’t seem as if they’re shopping him aggressively.

Little has gone right this year for New York, which has stumbled to a record (40-50) that betters only the Marlins’ mark in the National League. Contention’s highly unlikely for this year’s Mets, but unlike with impending free-agent starter Zack Wheeler, they shouldn’t necessarily feel urgency to part with Syndergaard this summer.

Syndergaard, who’s making an appealing $6MM salary, is eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019. Therefore, the Mets could keep him in hopes they and he bounce back during that two-year span. Alternatively, the club could retain Syndergaard through this season, see if he returns to his typical form in the second half and then solicit offers during the winter. At that point, teams unable to win what should be a hotly contested derby for free agency’s top starter, Gerrit Cole, might view Syndergaard as an enticing consolation prize.

On a per-inning basis, Syndergaard has been a Cole-caliber producer since he broke into the league. Between his 2015 debut and last year, Syndergaard parlayed his high-90s heat into an ace-like 2.93 ERA/2.66 FIP with 9.95 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate over 518 innings. But injuries limited him at times, including during a 154 1/3-inning campaign in 2018, and they’ve reared their head again this year. Syndergaard missed time earlier in the season with a hamstring strain, though he returned after missing about two weeks. He has not, however, logged a quality start in any of his three outings since. Overall, Syndergaard has paled in comparison to his 2015-18 self, having notched a 4.68 ERA/3.98 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, and a 46.7 percent grounder mark across 105 2/3 frames.

While Syndergaard’s continuing to throw hard, his aforementioned K/9, career-low chase rate, career-high contact rate and personal-worst swinging-strike percentage show he’s fooling fewer hitters than ever. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s still a Statcast darling whose 34-point spread between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.314/.280) suggest bad luck has played a part in his issues preventing runs. The fact that Syndergaard’s tasked with pitching in front of a dreadful defense also hasn’t done him any favors.

All things considered, the Mets are facing an interesting decision on Syndergaard as zero hour closes in on July 31. If the Mets were to make Syndergaard available by then, he’d perhaps end up as the most popular player on the block. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Most Improved Offense Of 2019

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After unexpectedly earning a playoff berth in 2017, the Twins finished far out of contention last season with a 78-84 record. The club’s offense contributed to its mediocrity a year ago, ranking 13th in the majors in runs, 19th in wRC+ (95) and 23rd in homers. Aside from infielder Eduardo Escobar, whom Minnesota traded to Arizona before the end-of-July deadline, none of its regulars posted well above-average offensive production. Additionally, the Twins handed out a couple thousand plate appearances to players who were so-so or worse at the plate. Franchise icon Joe Mauer, who retired at season’s end, as well as Brian Dozier (traded last summer) and offseason departures Robbie Grossman, Logan Morrison and Logan Forsythe were among those responsible for Minnesota’s middle-of-the-pack attack.

Unlike last season, there hasn’t been anything run-of-the-mill about the Twins’ offense. In fact, the unit has been downright scary, a key reason why the Twins have sprinted to the majors’ fourth-ranked record (56-33). No team has scored more runs than the Twins, who are tied atop the league at 509 and have seen their wRC+ climb a whopping 21 points to 116 (second in baseball). With 166 home runs, the Twins are first in the majors and on pace to eclipse the record 266 the Yankees swatted just last season.

The club’s marked offensive improvement is the product of in-house talent coming into its own and shrewd offseason pickups by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. A slew of holdovers – shortstop Jorge Polanco (19), center fielder Byron Buxton (19), outfielder Max Kepler (25), utilityman Ehire Adrianza (30), third baseman Miguel Sano (44), and catchers Mitch Garver (53) and Jason Castro (83) – have each boosted their wRC+ by sizable amounts. Meanwhile, unheralded rookie utility player Luis Arraez has recorded a phenomenal 162 wRC+  in his first 95 plate appearances.

The Twins also helped their cause with a few notable additions to their offense over the winter, including the signing of accomplished slugger Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $14.3MM deal. Cruz couldn’t find a multiyear contract because of his advanced age (39), but he still isn’t showing signs of slowing down. He has smashed 16 homers, giving him 376 for his career, and is on track to finish with a 130-plus wRC+ for the sixth straight year.

Fellow free-agent signings Jonathan Schoop (103 wRC+) and Marwin Gonzalez (94) haven’t been close to as effective as Cruz, but Schoop has outdone the offensive output Dozier and Forsythe put up at second in 2018. Gonzalez has come on strong since an ice-cold April, thereby doing his best to justify the two-year, $21MM investment Minnesota made in him.

The team also utilized the waiver wire to its advantage in the offseason, scooping up first baseman C.J. Cron after the Rays cut him on the heels of a 30-home run season. Cron, whom the Rays didn’t want to pay an estimated $5.2MM in arbitration, settled for $4.8MM after catching on with the Twins. The 29-year-old’s numbers have dipped compared to last season’s, though he has still hit .266/.326/.495 (111 wRC+) in 331 PA and added 17 HRs to the Twins’ potentially historic ledger.

With the Twins hoping to vie for a World Series in the season’s second half, it’s fair to wonder whether their offense can keep up this type of pace. Statcast’s expected weighted on-base average metric presents a mixed bag of answers. Castro, Cruz, Gonzalez and Cron have all logged xwOBAs ranging from 29 to 55 points better than their actual marks. On the other hand, the xwOBAs of Polanco and Kepler are 15 points lower, Buxton’s is 26 points inferior, Sano’s lagging by 43 and Garver by 57. However, Polanco, Kepler and Garver are still clearly above average in the category. Meantime, there’s not much difference for Adrianza, Schoop or slugging outfielder Eddie Rosario.

Between a high-octane offense and a quality pitching staff, the Twins are legitimate candidates to play deep into the fall this year. Of course, there’s still work to be done around this month’s trade deadline (perhaps by acquiring another starter and more relief help) for a team trying to hold off the hard-charging Indians in the American League Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

An Underrated Waiver Pickup

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The Marlins finally parted with catcher J.T. Realmuto last offseason, making him the latest household name to exit Miami via trade. Other than that, the rebuilding club unsurprisingly engaged in a quiet winter. The Marlins handed out just two guaranteed contracts, signing veteran Band-Aids Neil Walker and Sergio Romo for a combined $4.5MM, and made the rest of their acquisitions via low-key trades, minor league signings and waiver claims. Three months into the season, one of those waiver pickups has been a steal for Miami.

The Marlins claimed reliever Austin Brice from the fellow non-contending Orioles on Feb. 4. The transaction reunited the right-handed Brice and the organization he started his career with when it chose him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. Brice stuck with the Marlins for several years and made his major league debut with them in 2016, but they traded him and righty starter Luis Castillo to the Reds in the ensuing offseason as part of a deal for RHP Dan Straily. Considering the emergence of Castillo as a front-line starter in Cincinnati, not to mention that Straily lasted a meager two years in Miami, the trade obviously hasn’t worked out for the Marlins. However, thanks to their reunion with Brice, it looks a tad less unfortunate (albeit still highly regrettable).

Brice, who turned 27 last month, didn’t have the makings of a particularly interesting pickup for the Marlins when they brought him back. He was coming off a two-year stretch with the Reds in which he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 70 innings. Unimpressed, the Reds decided early in the offseason to cut the cord on Brice. He then had brief winter stints with the Angels and Orioles after each of those teams claimed him off waivers, finally finding a home with the Marlins about two months before the season began.

Just past the halfway point of the 2019 campaign, Brice has come to the fore as one of the most productive waiver additions of the offseason. Through 37 1/3 innings, which ties him for first among Marlins relievers, Brice has logged a sterling 1.93 ERA. Some of his other numbers – including 8.68 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 and a 3.84 FIP – don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. However, Brice ranks much closer to the top of the majors than the bottom in weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.253/.276). He has also been a bear to deal with for both righties and lefties, having limited the former to a .237 wOBA and the latter to a .274 mark.

Brice’s success has come with a change in repertoire. When the Marlins brought Brice back in the winter, president of baseball operations Michael Hill called him a “severe sinkerball pitcher.” Compared to 2018, though, Brice’s sinker usage has, well, sunk. He utilized the pitch 48.5 percent of the time in his Cincinnati swan song, but it’s down to 22.4 in his return to Miami. Brice is now relying primarily on his curveball, which is up to 44.2 percent usage after sitting at 28.1 a year ago and ranks in the league’s 96th percentile in spin rate. He has also leaned heavily on his four-seamer, having thrown it almost 9 percent more than he did last season (28.5 to 19.8).

The switch in pitch mix has yielded encouraging results for Brice, whose curve (.219 wOBA/.253 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.173/.133) have stymied opposing hitters. Turning to those pitches more has helped Brice rank well above average in hard-hit rate against (65th percentile), exit velocity (68th), xwOBA (84th), expected batting average (84th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd).

Nine years after they drafted him, the Marlins may have stumbled on a useful multiyear piece in Brice, who’s not slated to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the end of the 2023 campaign. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team which owns the NL’s worst record, 33-55, and hasn’t had many causes for celebration this season.

7 Top Prospects Who Could Spur Their Teams Down The Stretch

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Every now and again, a young player arrives in the majors relatively late in the season and immediately functions as a key cog for a contender. Think Corey Seager in 2015. It takes a combination of talent, readiness, and opportunity all coming together. We’ll be focused in no small part on that last prong here; it’s always possible that injuries will create new openings, but our attention will fall on already foreseeable chances at playing time.

Here are a few top prospects who have yet to make their MLB debuts but could be positioned to make a splash for possible contenders in the second half:

Jo Adell, OF, Angels: If the Halos are to make a charge — into the Wild Card picture, if not that of the division — they’ll need everything they can get. While Brian Goodwin has been a nice surprise, he’s best suited to functioning as a fourth outfielder. Overcoming adversity for a surprise run may require a bold bet on Adell’s talent; after a late start to the year, he has shattered Double-A pitching.

MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres: Ditto the Friars, who have shown zero hesitation to promote top young hurlers but still haven’t settled on a sustainable rotation mix. There isn’t much reason for the San Diego org to go wild with rental additions at the deadline, but it could remain in the Wild Card hunt and would have less to lose by rolling the dice on its own prospect assets. Gore is the most talented of all the team’s pre-MLB hurlers. He only just earned a promotion to the Double-A level after mowing down High-A batters, so bringing the 20-year-old to the show would be rather aggressive, but it could be intriguing to consider the possibility depending upon how things shake out (for both Gore and the team) over the next month or so.

Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves: The Atlanta organization has likewise cycled through a whole host of young arms of late, with the sort of mixed results you’d expect. Anderson has yet to get the call but has made a compelling case. He’s now through 86 2/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball at Double-A — the same level he finished the ’18 season — with 11.7 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. Having reached 119 1/3 total frames last year, Anderson ought to have some availability left in the tank. The Braves could conceivably call upon him as a rotation piece, late-inning reliever, or multi-inning flex hurler.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies: It’s a parade of former third overall picks! Bohm, who followed Gore (’17) and Anderson (’16) in that draft slot, only recently made it to the Double-A level. But he was selected as an accomplished collegiate player and is nearly 23 years of age. Bohm has exhibited exceptional plate discipline and good power this year. Meanwhile, the Phils have sunk in the standings as third bagger Maikel Franco has faded at the plate.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics: We’ve long known of this possibility. Puk, a long-hyped southpaw, is coming back from Tommy John surgery just in time to give another boost to the streaking A’s. Unfortunately, he has been walk-prone in his rehab work and may need some more polishing before making his MLB debut. But the upside here is too tantalizing to ignore, even if it could come initially in relief work. We’re not forgetting about two other high-end A’s prospects — Jesus Luzardo and Sean Murphy — but both are still working through injury issues.

Nico Hoerner, 2B, Cubs: As with Bohm, Hoerner is a quick-moving 2018 first-rounder. While he was ahead of his classmate to begin the year, opening at the penultimate level of the minors, Hoerner was sidelined by a wrist injury that he returned from only recently. But it’s not hard to imagine him jumping onto the MLB radar in the relatively near future. Through 95 plate appearances this season at Double-A, Hoerner carries a .305/.371/.486 slash line. Meanwhile, at the major-league level, the Cubs have featured an underperforming carousel of players at Hoerner’s position.

Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers: While Gavin Lux seems ready for an impact, there just isn’t much immediate opportunity in a loaded Los Angeles infield mix. Instead, we’re featuring May, a 21-year-old hurler who could make an impact in any number of ways on the Dodgers pitching staff. Having already twice topped 130 innings in prior seasons, May could be asked to work as a starter. It’s more likely, perhaps, that the L.A. club would consider him as yet another flex piece. May was just bumped up to Triple-A after throwing 79 1/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball, with 9.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, for Double-A Tulsa.

All-Star Break Opt-Out Updates

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The opt-out clause is now a permanent fixture in the large-contract toolkit. Not every deal has one, but they’re a common mechanism to allow players and teams to tweak otherwise rigid structures to find accord. Fortunately for hot stove watchers, opt-out clauses — really, glorified player options — create added layers of complexity and intrigue for significant players.

Let’s check in on the opt-out decisions forthcoming at the end of the 2019 season:

Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: Andrus is in an interesting spot as he nears his 31st birthday. He’s posting league-average numbers at the plate thus far in 2019 with a blend of a high batting average, scant walk rate, and decent power. Statcast indicates he has overperformed a bit, which was also the assessment based upon the batted-ball data in his successful 2016 and 2017 campaigns. (The opposite was true last year, a down season at the plate.) There’s a split on the defensive side between UZR (which grades Andrus as excellent) and DRS (the opposite); given his long history, it seems fair to say Andrus is still plenty capable of handling short. He’s ticking up on the basepaths, having already swiped 19 bags after taking just five last year. It’s still possible to imagine this situation going one way or the other, depending upon how Andrus finishes out the year and what his personal preferences are. On balance, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have much greater earning power than the existing contract — particularly since he’d assuredly be dragging draft compensation if he opts out (which would make it an easy choice for the Rangers to issue him a qualifying offer).

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Unless Arrieta completely flips the script hard down the stretch, there’s almost no way it’ll make sense on paper for him to opt out. His useful but uninspiring 2018 effort has given way to a messy 2019 campaign, with the problem areas of the past few seasons coming fully to roost. Arrieta is through 108 innings in 18 starts, so he remains a dependable rotation piece, but he’s coughing up 4.67 earned per nine with just 7.1 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. While he is again drawing grounders on over half the balls put in play against him, he’s also allowing dingers on one in five flies. At 33 years of age, Arrieta seems to be on the career arc of James Shields moreso than that of Zack Greinke.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Two years, $30MM: We initially missed this one when we rounded up the year’s opt-out opportunities. That stings doubly since Chapman arguably has the best case for bailing on the rest of his contract. 32 next February, the southpaw remains a force at the back of the Yanks’ bullpen. Through 34 2/3 innings this year, Chapman carries a 1.82 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. While many other pitchers are seeing their dinger rates rise, he has allowed only a single ball to leave the yard. His swinging-strike rate is down to a personal-low of 12.3%, and Chapman is averaging only 98.2 mph with his average four-seam fastball — though he’s still over 100 with a sinker that he has utilized more than ever. There’s some market competition from excellent lefty Will Smith, and Chapman can be issued a qualifying offer by the Yankees, but there’s plenty of reason to think Chapman would be hotly pursued in free agency.

Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish is consistently making starts, which is more than could be said last year, but the Cubs’ Arrieta replacement has not been anywhere close to good enough to spurn those remaining earnings. As he closes in on his 33rd birthday, Darvish is giving up free passes (4.5 BB/9) and long flies (1.86 per nine, 25.3% HR/FB) by the bucketful. There are some positive signs that leave the door open for a turnaround — his 93.9 mph average fastball and 12.2% swinging-strike rate sit right at his career means — but they aren’t going to change the contractual outcome here.

Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday and is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance at the plate. After two brutal campaigns, he crawled back to league-average production in 2018. Now, he’s slashing .266/.355/.457 (110 wRC+) with 14 home runs and a career-high 12.0% walk rate through 332 plate appearances in 2019. We haven’t seen this kind of pop from Heyward since way back in 2013. There are some limits to the good vibes, however. Heyward continues to grade well defensively in right field, but metrics have panned his work in center. And he has been abysmal against left-handed pitching, cobbling together a .188/.246/.281 slash without the platoon advantage. That profile isn’t going to command a payday that comes close to what Heyward already has in hand.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: Much like teammate Clayton Kershaw, Jansen is now merely excellent, rather than exceptional. The veteran closer looks much the same this year as he did last, with still sparkling K/BB numbers (11.8 K/9 vs. 1.7 BB/9) but a vulnerability to the long ball that did not exist at his peak. Over his past 108 1/3 innings, dating to the start of the ’18 campaign, Jansen has allowed more than 1.5 dingers per nine with a HR/FB rate of greater than 15 percent. Though his swinging-strike rate has trended back up this year (to 16.0%, just over his career average but below his ceiling), his average fastball velocity has continued its inevitable descent (now to 92.0 mph). Jansen will turn 32 at the very end of the season. There’s still a possibility that he could secure a slightly larger overall contract on the open market if he finishes strong, particularly since Jansen can’t be hung with a qualifying offer. Wade Davis got $52MM over three years at the same point on the age spectrum. But that possibility may not be worth the risk, particularly after Craig Kimbrel fell shy of expectations in free agency.

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: This one could be interesting, particularly given that several of the most productive potential free agents decided to avoid the market by inking extensions. Martinez is going to have a fairly limited potential pool of suitors, which will impact the decisionmaking. He’s also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, which won’t help. It doesn’t sound as if he much of an idea yet whether he’ll trigger the opt out. The second-half performance will be key here. Martinez has now fallen off of the phenomenal levels of offensive production he carried in the prior two seasons. Through 357 plate appearances, he owns an impressive (but mortal) .304/.376/.541 batting line with 18 home runs. Statcast has some mixed news: Martinez is exhibiting clear declines in hard contact but still seems like a candidate for positive regression (.383 wOBA vs. .416 xwOBA). Edwin Encarnacion took down $20MM annually over a three-year term entering his age-34 season, so there’s a realistic possibility that Martinez (32 in August) could beat the earnings he already has secured.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: As he nears his 31st birthday, Strasburg continues to turn in excellent work on the mound. He has underperformed his peripherals again in 2019, but has been in good health (knock on wood) with 116 1/3 frames over 18 starts. Stras carries a 3.64 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and a strong 52.4% groundball rate. He’s sporting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (14.2%) and chase rate (38.6%) despite losing a tick on his average four-seamer, so the stuff is still plenty crisp. The opt-out chance — there’s another next winter as well — could well prove tantalizing so long as Strasburg keeps up his present pace and stays healthy down the stretch. It’s important to bear in mind that the contract’s deferrals reduce its present-day value. Still, it’s a big number to top in free agency. And while the upcoming class was severely weakened by pre-season extensions, it does feature some strong rotation competition — particularly the more youthful Gerrit Cole, but also including Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, and Cole Hamels.

Injuries Limiting Khris Davis’ Power

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Khris Davis has been a remarkably consistent piece of the Athletics’ offense since the team acquired him from the Brewers just a couple months before the 2016 season began. A .247 hitter in his final season with the Brewers, Davis incredibly posted that same average from 2016-18 in Oakland. At the same time, the man known as Khrush slammed 133 home runs – at least 42 in each season – while recording a 128 wRC+ during that three-year, 1,916-plate appearance span.

Durability played an important role in Davis’ counting stats during his first three years as an Athletic. He appeared in no fewer than 150 games in any of those seasons, though hip, oblique and left hand problems have dogged Davis this year, limiting him to 74 of a possible 91 contests. It hasn’t been an ideal outcome for low-budget Oakland, which signed the fan and organizational favorite to a two-year, $33.5MM contract extension entering 2019. Including Davis’ $16.5MM salary this season, he’s under wraps through 2021 for $50MM. That’s a lot for the A’s, who – despite being in the thick of the playoff race for the second straight year – haven’t gotten the optimal version of Davis.

Through 302 plate appearances this season, the 31-year-old Davis has batted a career-worst .236/.305/.433 with a personal-low .196 ISO that sits 91 points below his 2016-18 mark. While Davis does have 16 homers, he’s easily on pace for his fewest in a season as an Athletic, and he hasn’t hit one since June 18. Moreover, his wRC+ (94) comes in 16 points below the league average for a designated hitter.

This past weekend, Davis explained to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that the pain in his hand has hampered his power, saying: “It’s just not as strong as it should be. I’ve been choking up a little bit, and that’s been helping a little, but not a lot of power guys choke up.”

Indeed, although a career-high swing percentage (52.7) has led to Davis’ greatest contact rate as an Athletic (70 percent), he’s not denting the ball to the extent he did in prior years. Davis’ average exit velocity has decreased from 92.5 mph to 89.5 since last season, according to Statcast, while his launch angle has plummeted from 18.1 to 12.4. He has also hit 11.7 percent fewer fly balls since then, which helps explain why he’s so far from the major league-leading 48 homers he amassed a season ago.

Davis’ MLB-best HR total in 2018 played a key part in a .365 weighted on-base average/.378 expected wOBA, but those numbers have sunk to .313/.331 this year. His xwOBA ranks in the league’s 48th percentile, while his expected batting average (35th), hard-hit rate (52nd) and expected slugging percentage (65th and down 106 points from 2018) also aren’t befitting of a top-rate slugger. Here’s an interesting bit of trivia, though: Davis’ expected average is – you guessed it – .247.

The right-handed Davis has typically handled both same-handed and lefty pitchers, though not having the platoon advantage has kneecapped him this year. He’s hitting an unimposing .226/.297/.392 (83 wRC+) against righties thus far. Per FanGraphs, Davis destroyed pitches in the middle of the zone against RHPs just a season ago, but his success in that portion of the plate (and in other areas) versus righties has dwindled significantly in 2019.

With two-plus months left in the season, Davis has time to reverse his fortunes this year and help Oakland to the playoffs. Owing in some part to injuries, though, one of the game’s fiercest sluggers has gone backward in a season where power has run rampant. Considering the hefty investment small-budget Oakland made in Davis coming into the season, it’s in obvious need of a turnaround from the typically elite HR hitter going forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Shopping Trevor Bauer

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked an interesting question Tuesday morning: Should the Mets entertain trade offers for ace Jacob deGrom? To this point, the majority of voters believe they should at least listen to other teams’ proposals for the 31-year-old right-hander. As great as deGrom is, he’s probably not going to help pitch the woebegone Mets into the playoffs this season.

On the other hand, Indians righty Trevor Bauer may aid in a playoff berth for his team yet again in 2019. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Monday that the Indians are “aggressive listeners” on Bauer as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. There’s wide-ranging interest in Bauer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cleveland, which happens to be hosting Tuesday’s All-Star Game, went on a tear to end the season’s first half. Winners of six straight, the Indians are 50-38 – good for the majors’ seventh-highest winning percentage (.568) – and have suddenly made the AL Central race intriguing. For a large portion of the first half, it looked as if the Twins would skate to a division title. Now, though, the Indians sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind them. The Tribe’s also 1 1/2 games up on the AL’s second wild-card spot and a half-game behind the Rays for the league’s No. 5 seed.

An appreciable amount of the Indians’ success can be attributed to the 28-year-old Bauer, which would make trading him in the next three weeks all the more surprising. No, Bauer hasn’t been the ace-caliber performer he was a year ago. Still, though, Bauer has recorded a 3.61 ERA (granted, with a less inspiring 4.10 FIP) and 10.16 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9 over a major league-leading 132 innings.

It’s hard to believe the Indians would be able to trade Bauer and better themselves for this year, especially in light of the other concerns in their rotation. The Tribe’s starting staff looked like one of the league’s best entering the season. Since then, however, Corey Kluber has struggled and missed a vast amount of the campaign because of a fractured forearm. Mike Clevinger has made just five starts, over which he has been a mixed bag, because of a back injury. Worst of all, the team’s still reeling from the awful news that the excellent Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t pitched since May 30, is battling leukemia.

The absences of Kluber and Carrasco have left Bauer, Clevinger and stellar young righty Shane Bieber as the lone truly dependable members of the Indians’ rotation. Fill-in Jefry Rodriguez has been on the injured list since June 1 with a strained shoulder, and rookie Zach Plesac has fallen off of late. Meantime, Adam Plutko has posted a below-average ERA (4.95) through 36 1/3 innings, and that outdoes even less shiny peripherals.

All of that said, Cleveland’s in an unenviable position with Bauer, whom it will probably lose soon even if it keeps him through the season. Bauer’s making a somewhat expensive $13MM and only controllable through 2020. If we’re to take his word for it, the offbeat Bauer will be trying to max out on one-year contracts every winter in free agency after that. Therefore, if the Indians weren’t in contention, now would clearly be the time for the Indians to flip Bauer. But the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are very much in the hunt right now, which could set the stage for an agonizing Bauer decision this month. What do you think they should do?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

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What’s Wrong With Robinson Cano?

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We’re on the eve of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, an event second baseman Robinson Cano has received eight invitations to since his career began in 2005. The former Yankee and Mariner is clearly one of the most accomplished second basemen in baseball history. However, in 2019 – his first season as a Met – the 36-year-old Cano has looked nothing like his usual self. His subpar performance played a key part in a miserable first half for the Mets, who’ve endured a chaotic three-plus months and limped to a 40-50 record thus far.

The Cano acquisition was one of many bold offseason moves by first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the potential Hall of Famer’s former agent. While inexpensive closer Edwin Diaz was likely the real target in the Mets’ return from the Mariners in a blockbuster December trade, it’s obvious there was confidence in Cano on New York’s part. Otherwise, the club wouldn’t have taken on four years and $100MM of Cano to land Diaz. Unfortunately for the Mets, though, neither player has performed to expectations this year.

The sweet-swinging Cano entered the year a lifetime .304/.355/.493 hitter (127 wRC+) with 56.7 fWAR – the sixth-highest total among position players from 2005-18 – as well as 311 home runs in 8,841 plate appearances. He offered similarly excellent production last year, though a fractured right hand and an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension cut his season in half.

Cano’s 2018 ban didn’t scare off the Mets, for whom he has batted a weak .240/.287/.360 (74 wRC+) with a mere four HRs in 258 trips to the plate. Cano has also accounted for a ghastly minus-7 Defensive Runs and a minus-3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating at second, a position he has typically handled with aplomb. To make matters worse, the once-durable Cano has endured a pair of stints on the injured list because of quad problems. During the 65 games Cano has taken the field, he has posted minus-0.5 fWAR – a stark fall from grace for someone who logged 2.9 during his shortened 2018 and has exceeded the 3.0 mark in nine seasons.

If you’re looking for causes for Cano’s awful offensive production this season, start with a power outage. His ISO’s at .120, 69 points lower than the mean he recorded coming into this season. It’s also 60 points worse than the league-average figure and 18th from the bottom among 195 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA. As FanGraphs’ heatmaps indicate (pre-2019, this year), Cano typically showed a solid amount of power on the inner and outer halves of the strike zone before the current campaign. His power this year has been confined to the middle of the plate, though, and it’s not even as strong there anymore.

Cano’s still making plenty of hard contact – he ranks in the majors’ 83rd percentile in that category and its 77th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. But he’s pulling the ball less than ever, striking out a good amount more than he has in prior seasons and swinging and missing at a career-worst rate. A more aggressive approach – evidenced by a personal-high swing rate – hasn’t panned out, as shown by a career-low contact percentage.

When Cano has put the bat on the ball, he has only registered a .283 batting average on balls in play – down 36 points compared to 2005-18. There may be some poor fortune involved in that. As mentioned, he has hit the ball hard. There’s also a 28-point gap between his weighted on-base average and his expected wOBA. Still, though, Cano’s xwOBA is an underwhelming .307. That ranks in the majors’ 28th percentile, while his sprint speed (15th), expected slugging percentage (36th) and expected batting average (54th) are also mediocre or much worse. None of that’s conducive to a high BABIP or quality overall production, nor is Cano’s sudden uselessness against same-handed pitchers.

Although the lefty-hitting Cano has been much tougher on right-handed pitchers in his career, he has at least posed a threat versus southpaws. A lifetime .282/.333/.429 hitter (106 wRC+) without the platoon advantage, the 2019 version of Cano’s at a putrid .206/.275/.222 (43 wRC+) against lefties. Another look at FanGraphs’ heatmaps (pre-2019, this season) shows lefties have lived much more belt-high middle or on the outer half of the plate against Cano this year compared to prior seasons. He hasn’t found an answer yet.

Answers in general have been hard to come by for this year’s Mets, one of the season’s greatest letdowns to date. There may not be time for a team-wide turnaround in 2019, but if Cano returns to his pre-Mets form in the season’s second half, at least the club would have that to hang its hat on going into the winter. Right now, though, the acquisition of Cano looks like a massive misstep by Van Wagenen, who may have saddled his team with an albatross contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Marlins’ Sneaky Trade Chip

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Apart from a few scattered signs of promise dotting the South Florida tank, it’s been another year to forget for the Fish. The Marlins currently sit at 32-54, 19.5 games back of the Braves in a tough NL East, a mark that all but assures the club of a decade-long losing-season sweep.

The club’s heaviest assets of yesteryear have all been pawned, leaving an assortment of pre-arb castoffs, up-and-comers, and journeymen hangers-on. Still, it’s baseball, and where playing time awaits, new assets will emerge. The club has steadily rebuilt its once-barren farm, stolen a couple names from regimes with which new club personnel were familiar, and allowed previously cast aside young talent to flourish. Even Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara, the bulk of the oft-pilloried return for Marcell Ozuna, have spread their wings this season, with the former vaulting into top-100 territory and the latter notching the club’s lone ’19 All-Star appearance despite shaky peripherals.

Can the club add to its array of projected big leaguers on the farm?  Many of its top performers this season – Brian Anderson, Pablo Lopez, Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith – figure to comprise the core of Miami’s next contending club, and are thus unlikely to move. Veterans Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, and Sergio Romo have done little to boost their respective values, and high-octane hurler Jose Urena hasn’t take the step forward the team hoped. But one former throw-in from a long-ago deal has remained steady as always.

Enter Miguel Rojas. Acquired in the head-scratching deal that sent Andrew Heaney, Kiké Hernandez, and Austin Barnes to LA in exchange for Dee Gordon and an aging Dan Haren, Rojas was used sparingly in his first couple seasons with the club. He opened eyes with a 1.4 fWAR performance in just 90 games in 2017, pairing strong contact ability with above-average defense at multiple positions. The gutting of 2018’s roster left near-full-time opportunity at shortstop for Rojas, a position at which he sparkled defensively, notching 10 defensive runs saved in nearly half the innings of NL-leader Nick Ahmed, who posted 21, and a UZR/150 that ranked among MLB’s best.

The 30-year-old Venezuelan has vaulted up a notch this season, pacing the big leagues in both UZR/150 and the range component of the stat, with a striking 13 Defensive Runs Saved to boot. With Andrelton Simmons on the shelf, and Brandon Crawford looking a shell of his former shelf all across the diamond, Rojas has staked a legitimate claim to the league’s best defender at the most difficult defensive position on the field.

His bat, too, has taken off: his 97 wRC+ has the one-time utility man on pace for nearly 3.0 fWAR this season, an easily above-average mark, and his second such offensive campaign in three years. His hard-hit rate has jumped to a career-high 35.5%, and the righty’s chasing pitches outside the zone at a career-low pace. Rojas’ 12.8 K% (paired with a respectable 7.8% BB) ranks among the league’s lowest.

In short, he’s as solid as they come. But where will he fit? Unlike other positions – catcher, second base – shortstop is rife with talent, and nearly every contender has a good one. Milwaukee, who’s seen Orlando Arcia reprise his poor performance from a season ago, could be a fit, as might Tampa or perhaps Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. Washington could again shift its shortstop, Trea Turner, around the diamond – he’s been awful defensively in limited action so far this season – as could the Cubs, whose second-base hole might simply be plugged by the displacement of one-time incumbent Javier Baez.

Given the propensity of new-wave front offices to acquire pieces without a clear fit, it stands to reason that Rojas’ market may be wider than it first appears. He’s arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2020, so Miami’s return won’t be negligible; the one-time throw-in may soon find himself a centerpiece.

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