This is the first update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.
One significant name is now off the board as we originally compiled it, as the Nationals landed Royals closer Kelvin Herrera. It has been fairly quiet on the trade front since, with the exception of the Red Sox’ acquisition of Steve Pearce, though plenty of other notable developments have occurred as well.
Here’s the updated ranking as we prepare for tonight’s All-Star Game:
1. Manny Machado, SS, Orioles (LR: 1): All indications are that Machado will be gone before play resumes after the All-Star break. While it will hurt to part with young talent to land a player who’ll reach the open market at season’s end, Machado promises to be a massive upgrade for whatever contender gets him.
2. Jeurys Familia, RP, Mets (LR: NR): At the time of the first iteration of this list, the Mets were still hanging around in the NL East. Not so much anymore. Familia is the best rental reliever available at this point. Though he may not quite be operating at peak capacity — his 12.0% swinging-strike and 50.5% groundball rates are down from his peak levels, though he’s throwing about as hard as usual — Familia carries a 2.88 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 and has shown he’s healthy after an injury-and-suspension-marred 2017 season. He’s earning $7.9MM this year, a manageable enough sum for an established late-inning reliever, and was excellent during the Mets’ 2015 postseason run (though things didn’t go quite as well in the ensuing season’s Wild Card game).
3. Zach Britton, RP, Orioles (LR: INJ): The southpaw really didn’t figure to land this high on the list, but recent developments have knocked down other candidates and he seems to be working out the kinks, with improved results and increased velocity of late. There are also loads of reports on interest, so it’s all but certain he’ll be dealt. Britton is still just 15 games into his return from Achilles surgery, of course, and dealt with elbow/forearm troubles last year. But the Britton of old was one of the game’s best relievers and he has certainly shown some eyebrow-raising signs of late, including increasing fastball velocity and a swinging-strike rate that is up to 14.5% for the year. He’s earning a $12MM salary this year, which will also serve to impact his market and the O’s potential return.
4. Wilson Ramos, C, Rays (LR: 6): While the Rays are playing well, the postseason outlook remains bleak and Ramos is a high-performing, highly compensated player. With some clear potential demand behind the dish for multiple contending organizations, a trade seems inevitable. Unfortunately, Ramos is also now dealing with a hamstring injury of unknown severity. We’ll keep him on the list despite the likelihood of a coming DL placement, since the length of said DL stint isn’t known and he may be moved regardless, but it’s hardly great news given his history of leg issues.
5. Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets (LR: NR): The switch-hitting Cabrera has been a consistently strong offensive producer since coming to the Mets. He’s showing more power than ever before at the moment, with 17 home runs and a .215 isolated slugging mark. Cabrera could be tasked with playing at second or third, though metrics have not smiled upon his glovework. With Jed Lowrie set to stay in Oakland, the Mets should receive some added interest in Cabrera.
6-10. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays; Cole Hamels, Rangers; Tyson Ross, Padres; Matt Harvey, Reds; Nathan Eovaldi, Rays, SP (LR: 3, 4, 7, 27, INJ): The market for pitching rentals has not looked stellar of late, to say the least. There are two rising pitchers here, Harvey and Eovaldi, but both come with long-term injury questions and their share of short-term performance inconsistencies. Since a brutal start to the season, Harvey’s velocity has stayed up, and he’s getting more and more whiffs with his slider. He has allowed just five earned runs over his past four starts, and while he’s hardly the ace he was early in his Mets career, he’s a near-lock to be traded in the next two weeks. Eovaldi is throwing about as hard as ever, getting more swings and misses than ever, and drawing grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him. He’s also continuing to exhibit the home run problems he had in 2016 and was just shelled (eight earned runs, one strikeout, 2 2/3 innings) in his most recent outing. Meanwhile, recent developments have not helped the value of Happ and Hamels, who we have discussed extensively in recent weeks. Both veteran southpaws entered the break with ERAs in the 4.3 range following three consecutive rough outings. Ross also had a pair of messy starts after carrying a 3.32 ERA through the end of June, with his velocity also trending down. But he showed much better against a tough Dodgers lineup in his most recent appearance. In all of these cases, contending teams will surely be watching the next few starts quite closely.
11. Mike Moustakas, Royals, 3B (LR: 5): Moustakas has been trending in the wrong direction since last we looked, but he’s a known commodity with good power and he remains a reasonably affordable option at the hot corner.
12. Joakim Soria, White Sox, RP (LR: 12): Soria recently saw an end to a string of 18-straight scoreless appearances. He’s earning $9MM this year, with a $1MM buyout on a 10MM mutual option for 2019. With a 2.75 ERA and 11.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9 on the year — buttressed by a career-high 14.7% swinging-strike rate — Soria looks to be quite a worthwhile target.
13-15. Brad Hand, Padres; Raisel Iglesias, Reds; Felipe Vazquez, Pirates, RP (LR: 8, 9, NR): Vazquez joins the list as the Bucs have faded. This trio represents the field of conceivably available, controllable, high-quality closers. There’s no real reason to think that these hurlers’ respective teams are particularly inclined to deal them, but the deadline is often an optimal time to move relievers and it’s generally easier to imagine one of these pitchers changing hands than a similarly affordable/controllable starter or position player.
16. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins (LR: 10): If the Marlins were more clearly interested in continuing their sell-off, Realmuto would rank higher — probably in the top two to three spots on this list. As it stands, the hints are that the 27-year-old won’t be dealt barring an overwhelming return. Will another team step up? Thee possibility of adding Realmuto down the stretch, and for two more affordable seasons, is awfully tantalizing after watching him race out to a .310/.365/.536 slash with a dozen home runs in 303 plate appearances to open the season.
17. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets (LR: NR): The star righty is firing on all cylinders right now. His two future seasons of arb control are immensely valuable to the Mets, but most of the other top starters that could conceivably be dealt have even more cheap years of control remaining. If a contender is going to line up a monumental offer for a starter, deGrom seems like the clear target. While the likelihood of a deal still seems on the low side, the lack of top-end rental-starter talent should not be overlooked as a factor in driving interest. Given deGrom’s sheer excellence for a lost Mets team, he warrants a fairly lofty spot on this list.
18-21. Eduardo Escobar, INF; Brian Dozier, 2B; Fernando Rodney, RP; Zach Duke, RP, Twins (LR: NR): This group of trade chips may not quite yet be available, given that a nice run has put the Twins back within plausible striking distance in the AL Central. That’s not to say, though, that the organization isn’t readying for a sale, in which case all could well be on the move. Escobar can play short, but hasn’t really been trusted there much of late. He is, however, doing more than ever before with the bat. The same can’t be said of Dozier, but he is starting to turn things on and is a productive all-around player even if he’s not hitting at the levels he did in the prior two campaigns. As for Rodney, the experience has been a good one thus far for Minnesota, which signed him to a $4.5MM deal that also includes some incentives and a 2019 option. Though he’s not a pure rental, the 41-year-old figures to be as available as any other Twins relievers. In 34 1/3 innings this year, the closer-for-hire — he has appeared with nine teams in his career and recorded saves for eight of them — owns a 3.12 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Meanwhile, Duke has reversed a tough 2017 showing and then some. He has dominated lefties and turned in passable-enough results against righties. Overall, he’s back to producing good strikeout rates (9.3 per nine) with excellent groundball rates (59.4%). Plus, he’s earning just $2.15MM this year plus some reasonably priced appearance-based incentives.
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