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Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

By | at April 1, 2019 8:57am CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Red Sox made some long-term investments in core members of their World Series team, though saying goodbye (maybe?) to some important relievers has left uncertainty within the bullpen.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Chris Sale, SP: Five years, $145MM (Sale can opt out after the 2022 season; contract contains a vesting option for the 2025 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: Six years, $120MM (Bogaerts can opt out after the 2022 season; contract contains a vesting option for the 2026 season)

Notable Losses

[Red Sox organizational depth chart][Red Sox payroll information]

Needs Addressed

It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to bring back their World Series MVP, as Steve Pearce was re-signed to a one-year contract by mid-November.  Pearce began the season on the injured list due to a strained calf but isn’t expected to miss much time before resuming his duties as Mitch Moreland‘s first base platoon partner and a late-game pinch-hit candidate.  His $6.25MM price tag is a bit steep compared to what other aging (Pearce turns 36 in mid-April) first base/DH types received on the open market, though it’s probably safe to assume that the team might have considered it an extra thank-you bonus for Pearce’s postseason exploits.  Plus, if he replicates the .901 OPS he posted over 165 PA with the Sox last season, Pearce may suddenly look like a bargain.

Speaking of Boston postseason heroes, Nathan Eovaldi posted a 1.61 ERA over 22 1/3 innings during the 2018 playoffs, including an instantly-legendary six-inning relief stint in the marathon that was Game 3 of the World Series.  That performance was the cherry on top of an outstanding comeback season for Eovaldi, who missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery before returning for a 3.81 ERA, 5.05 K/BB rate, and 8.2 K/9 over 111 regular season frames for the Rays and Red Sox.  Beyond just regaining his velocity post-surgery, Eovaldi’s 97.2mph average fastball actually represented a new career high for the right-hander.

Now re-established as a quality starter, Eovaldi drew a lot of attention in the free agent market, though the Sox were helped by the fact that Eovaldi reportedly only gave serious consideration to Boston and Houston (Eovaldi’s hometown club).  Boston ultimately re-signed Eovaldi on a four-year, $68MM contract.

There is no small amount of risk baked into that signing, as Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries under his belt and has averaged just 121 innings per year during his eight MLB seasons.  (The Phillies and perhaps at least one more of Eovaldi’s many suitors this winter apparently had interest in signing him to work as a reliever, which seems like it would’ve been a hard sell to a pitcher with so many rotation offers on the table.)  Despite the concerns, Eovaldi has never pitched as consistently well as he did during his three-plus months in a Red Sox uniform, so it could be that the team’s vaunted pitching braintrust may have unlocked something within Eovaldi to give the Sox faith that the righty can be a front-of-the-rotation arm going forward.

With some key players slated to reach free agency after the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Eovaldi’s deal also helped solidify the team’s core over a slightly longer term.  The Sox took another big step towards this end by extending Chris Sale, keeping the ace southpaw out of the 2019-20 free agent market by inking him to a five-year, $145MM deal.  We’ll address some of the concerns about the Sale contract in the next section, though in terms of pure performance, it’s hard to argue that Sale wasn’t deserving of such a financial commitment.  Sale has the best K/9 (10.9) and K/BB ratio (5.29) of any pitcher in the history of the sport with at least 1000 career innings, to go along with a 2.93 ERA.

Xander Bogaerts was the next 2019-20 free agent land a new contract, agreeing to remain in Boston for a guaranteed $120MM from 2020-25.  The shortstop has generated 17.6 fWAR from 2015-18 and is coming off a 2018 season that saw him post his best numbers yet (.288/.360/.522 in 580 PA).  A similar season could have pushed Bogaerts’ price tag close to the $200MM mark since he doesn’t turn 27 until October.  Instead, now the Sox know they have Bogaerts in the fold for a $20MM average annual value through at least 2025, and maybe 2026 depending on a vesting option.

Boston tried to shop its group of catchers all offseason long but never found a deal.  Instead, the Sox kept Sandy Leon in the organization after he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A.  This might count as something of a minor victory for the club, since Leon is still on hand to provide defensive depth behind Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.

Questions Remaining

It was a relatively quiet winter in Beantown, and there was certainly more than a bit of speculation surrounding what moves the Red Sox didn’t make, rather the ones they did.

With Joe Kelly gone to the Dodgers and a reunion with Craig Kimbrel looking unlikely, Boston’s bullpen is down its closer and one of its top setup men from 2018.  The Red Sox didn’t address these vacancies in any major way — rookie Colten Brewer made the Opening Day roster after being acquired from San Diego, while some experienced names like Erasmo Ramirez, Zach Putnam, Jenrry Mejia, and old friend Carson Smith were brought into the mix on minor league deals.

As it stands, Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier will share closing duties, leading a bullpen mix comprised mostly of returning pitchers now expected on take on a larger role.  Since Boston’s relief corps was pretty solid on the whole last year, it isn’t quite the nightmare scenario that many Boston fans are fearing.  The Sox seem to be taking the stance that since they’re such overwhelming favorites for a postseason spot already, they can take the first couple of months to evaluate their relief options and see if anyone emerges.  If not, Boston will likely pursue an established late-game reliever at the trade deadline (or they might do so even if Barnes and/or Brasier thrive, to add further depth).

Of course, this is something of a risky strategy with the Yankees (or maybe even the Rays) poised to battle for the AL East title.  Settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox in a division race that could easily come down to a game or two in the standings.  While the Sox might still have an advantage over the American League as a whole, they surely want to win the division rather than tempt fate in the Wild Card game.

Bogaerts’ extension came after the team’s self-imposed Opening Day deadline for extension talks, so we probably shouldn’t rule out any further deals.  Still, there was more buzz about a potential new Bogaerts contract than there was about a new pact for pending free agent Rick Porcello, as the Red Sox didn’t seem overly interested in a new contract even with Porcello offering something of a discount.

J.D. Martinez is another possible departure if he opts out of the final three years and $62.5MM left on his contract.  There also hasn’t been much traction between Martinez and the team in solidifying their future arrangement, though the Sox could be betting that Martinez chooses to stick with his contract rather than test a free agent market that has been increasingly hostile to defensively-limited players.  Even with another elite hitting season, would Martinez land more than $62.5MM for his age 32-34 seasons, as he becomes increasingly closer to being a DH-only player?  Martinez saw a limited market even last winter, and his situation might not improve now that he’d be two years older and with a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer (which the Sox would surely offer) hanging over his services.

The biggest unanswered question is what it will cost to keep Mookie Betts beyond the 2020 season.  Betts certainly doesn’t sound as if he’s considering signing an extension, so there might not have been much Boston could have done to get him to reconsider his stance on testing free agency (aside from a Mike Trout-esque offer).  With two years of team control remaining, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to lock Betts up immediately, though his price tag only seems to be rising.  Betts already rejected a $200MM extension offer prior to his MVP season in 2018, and retaining his services may take a $300MM+ commitment at this point.

Boston’s major investment in Sale also carries some red flags.  While Sale has been a durable arm over his career, his performance declined down the stretch in 2017, and he pitched just 17 regular-season innings after July 27 in 2018 due to shoulder issues (plus 15 1/3 innings over five postseason appearances).  If health problems are only starting to crop up now that Sale has celebrated his 30th birthday, it doesn’t auger well for him continuing to stay healthy for the life of that extension.  The Red Sox are also now averaging $75MM in salary to three rotation members in Sale, Eovaldi, and David Price through the 2022 season.  Price has also had some health issues over the last few years, while Eovaldi’s injury history is well-documented.

The question of money, of course, is at the heart of every transaction (or non-transaction) Boston made this winter.  The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season, topping the highest penalty level ($237MM) and thus faced slightly under $12MM in tax payments and a ten-slot drop for their first round draft pick.  Even as the Competitive Balance Tax has risen to $206MM for 2019, Roster Resource has Boston’s projected luxury tax number at slightly more than $253.2MM, well over the $246MM threshold that would trigger another maximum penalty.  If the Sox spend more than $246MM, their 2020 first-round pick will again drop back ten spots.  They’ll also pay $14.4MM in taxes for their payroll up to that $246MM mark and an additional 75 percent tax on every dollar from that point forth.  If that $253.2MM projection proves accurate, the Sox would pay a total of $19.8MM in luxury taxes.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams detailed Boston’s payroll situation in a recent analysis of why the Sox were hesitant about re-signing Kimbrel, or making a lot of big splashes this winter.  Extending Sale increased his luxury tax number, thus sending the team over the $246MM threshold and into the max penalty danger zone once more.  With this in mind, the Red Sox were reportedly even open to trade offers for Bogaerts, Porcello, and Jackie Bradley Jr. this winter as the club looked to cut costs.

The counter-argument, as Steve noted, is that the big-market Red Sox could absorb that tax hit as a giant one-year expense in the name of fully reloading for another World Series run while their core group is still together.  Enough salary will come off the books after the season (Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, and Boston’s remaining commitment to Pablo Sandoval) that the Sox might even have a shot at ducking under the $208MM luxury threshold for 2020 entirely, though it’ll be difficult considering the arbitration raises due to Betts, Bradley, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and maybe Barnes is his arbitration salary is boosted due to accumulating saves.  (Brasier could even reach arbitration as well, depending on where this year’s Super Two cutoff lands.)

Extensions to retain stars like Sale and Bogaerts, however, look to have been the only type of big splurge the club was willing to make to send it beyond the $246MM border this year.  Any further moves the Red Sox could make are likely to wait until midseason, when their deadline pickups will only have two-plus months of salary commitments remaining.  These pickups could include finding a reliever, maybe rotation depth, or possibly another second baseman in the vein of their acquisition of Ian Kinsler last summer.  It’s still unknown how much Dustin Pedroia will be able to contribute in 2019, leaving Boston with a combination of Holt and Nunez until Pedroia is ready, with Tzu-Wei Lin, an injured Marco Hernandez, and top prospect Michael Chavis as further potential options.

Second base is the biggest question mark around the diamond, as the Sox can be reasonably hopeful that Vazquez and Rafael Devers take steps forward from their mediocre 2018 showings to shore up the catcher and third base positions.  Without a ton of bench depth and a lack of money to spend on more upgrades, however, Boston will again be counting heavily on its superstars.

2019 Season Outlook

With all of these questions in mind, Fangraphs projected the Red Sox to take a big dropoff from their 108-win performance in 2018, as Boston is currently projected to win “only”…. 94 games.  Needless to say, the Sox still look like heavy favorites to again reach the postseason, though they’ll be neck-and-neck with the Yankees all year long for the AL East crown.

How would you grade what the Red Sox did this offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

How Would You Grade The Red Sox Offseason?

  • C 40% (1,477)
  • B 28% (1,049)
  • D 16% (606)
  • F 8% (305)
  • A 8% (281)

Total votes: 3,718

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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2018-19 Offseason In Review Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By | at March 31, 2019 9:58am CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Audacious general manager Brodie Van Wagenen hit the ground running in his first offseason atop the Mets. Now, after two straight down years, the revamped club has a realistic chance to compete for a playoff berth.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]

Needs Addressed

Formerly one of baseball’s most accomplished agents, Van Wagenen took the reins in Queens with no prior front office experience. It was a controversial choice by the Mets to hand Van Wagenen the keys to their baseball department, though he never lacked for confidence upon landing the job.

“We will win now. We will win in the future. We will deliver a team this fanbase and this city can be proud of,” Van Wagenen declared at his introductory press conference on Oct. 30.

While there was plenty of skepticism over Van Wagenen five months ago, it’s hard to say he’s in over his head one winter into his pressure-packed new role. Van Wagenen reworked the Mets’ roster in impressive fashion over the past few months, turning a team that didn’t have enough support around core stars Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto into a formidable unit.

Much of Van Wagenen’s focus was on the Mets’ infield and bullpen, two areas he addressed in his first noteworthy move – a stunning, headline-stealing trade with the Mariners. Not only did the swap net the Mets Robinson Cano, one of the best second basemen in recent memory, but they also hauled in arguably baseball’s premier reliever in closer Edwin Diaz. The cost? Three capable prospects – including top 100 outfielder Jarred Kelenic (No. 56 at MLB.com) and right-hander Justin Dunn (No. 90) – a pair of expendable veterans (outfielder Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak, both of whom struggled as Mets) and a willingness to take on $100MM of Cano’s remaining $120MM. Cano’s raking in that money thanks in part to his former agent, Van Wagenen, who scored the ex-Yankee a $240MM payday from the M’s in 2013.

There is an especially high amount of risk in welcoming the present-day version of Cano, as he’s a pricey 36-year-old coming off a season in which he sat 80 games because of a performance-enhancing drug suspension. At the same time, though, he stayed an excellent contributor in the 80 games he took the field, and the Mets are banking on the eight-time All-Star continuing to turn in Hall of Fame-caliber production for at least a bit longer. Whether that’s sensible on their part is debatable, but regardless, he’s slated to be on their books for the next half-decade. Meanwhile, they’re set to get four affordable years of Diaz (including one pre-arb campaign). The 25-year-old flamethrower was the less famous name in the return, but he could be the bigger prize for the Mets. Diaz has been nothing short of incredible since debuting in 2016, and should go a long way toward fixing what was an awful New York bullpen in 2018.

Diaz will have some imposing late-game company this year and beyond, in part because the Mets reunited with old friend Jeurys Familia and added Justin Wilson in free agency. Familia, whom the Mets traded to Oakland last July after a long initial run with the New York organization, went down as their most expensive free-agent signing at $30MM over three years. Committing large amounts of money to relievers is often risky, but the 29-year-old Familia’s contract looks fair when considering the numbers he has logged throughout his career. Likewise, the $10MM going to Wilson is hardly a crazy figure. Based on his output to date, he should give the Mets something the now-gone Jerry Blevins couldn’t provide last year: an effective left-handed reliever. With Diaz, Familia, Wilson and minor league signing Luis Avilan – who has been a solid lefty as well – joining holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, it’s easy to see the Mets’ relief corps transforming from weakness to strength.

Similarly, the Mets’ position player contingent has the makings of an above-average group. Along with Nimmo, Conforto and Cano, the Mets’ main offensive threats look to be top first base prospect Pete Alonso – who, in an era of rampant service-time manipulation, cracked their season-opening roster – as well as infielders Jed Lowrie and Jeff McNeil and catcher Wilson Ramos. Both Lowrie and Ramos came aboard via free agency on the heels of terrific seasons. Lowrie was among the majors’ most productive second basemen in Oakland from 2017-18, but Cano’s presence should push him to the hot corner in New York. Health and age (35 in April) are the primary concerns with Lowrie, who has missed substantial time in the past and, thanks to a sprained left knee, may be a ways from making his Mets debut.

Ramos has battled his own knee troubles, including two right ACL tears, though the 31-year-old has typically been an adept backstop when healthy. Still, if the Mets had their druthers, Ramos probably wouldn’t be on the roster. Not only did the Mets reportedly pursue trades for then-Indian Yan Gomes and then-Marlin J.T. Realmuto, both of whom ended up with division rivals, but they chased Yasmani Grandal in free agency. Realmuto and Grandal are superior to Ramos, but New York reportedly balked at giving up Nimmo, Conforto or shortstop Amed Rosario for Realmuto, and the team pivoted away from Grandal when the now-Brewer turned down its sizable offer. That left New York to fork over a reasonable sum for Ramos, who’s a far better player than 2018 Mets catchers Kevin Plawecki, Travis d’Arnaud, Devin Mesoraco, Tomas Nido and Jose Lobaton. Plawecki’s now off the Mets, having been traded to the Indians, as is Lobaton. D’Arnaud is occupying his usual spot on the injured list, leaving the No. 2 job to Nido, and Mesoraco could retire instead of playing for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.

Questions Remaining

While the Mets’ infielders appear to be a promising bunch, there’s room for some wariness. Lowrie’s health is worth monitoring, and the same applies to Todd Frazier. Although Frazier was quite durable with the Reds, White Sox and Yankees earlier in his career, he missed 47 games last year – his first as a Met – and began this season on the IL with a strained oblique. If healthy, though, the 33-year-old Frazier has the credentials to serve as a valuable corner infield reserve.

It’s questionable, on the other hand, how effective Alonso, McNeil, Rosario and Dominic Smith will be this year. Alonso was outstanding as a minor leaguer, but there’s no guarantee it will carry over. If it doesn’t, the Mets may turn to Smith, who, like Alonso, garnered top 100 hype as a prospect. Smith has been valueless as a major leaguer since he first came up in 2017, and he wasn’t any better in the minors last year. McNeil was a revelation in his 248-plate appearance debut last season, but he showed minimal power and an inflated .359 BABIP helped beget a .329 batting average. Rosario hasn’t hit since breaking into the bigs in 2017, nor has he fared well in the field, leaving one to wonder why the deep-pocketed Mets didn’t pursue Manny Machado in free agency.

For the most part, the Mets’ outfield is nicely equipped with Nimmo and Conforto occupying two everyday spots. Ideally, they’ll start in the corners, though Nimmo held down center in the team’s second game of the season on Saturday, giving left to McNeil and third to newcomer J.D. Davis. Nimmo wouldn’t need to play center if the Mets had a more surefire option there than Keon Broxton, whom they acquired in a January trade with the Brewers, or Juan Lagares. Broxton and Lagares are proven defenders, but offensive mediocrity abounds in both cases. That’s hardly the case for A.J. Pollock, a rumored offseason target of the Mets who ended up securing an appreciable raise to go from the Diamondbacks to the Dodgers. It didn’t seem as if the Mets fervently pursued Pollock before he came off the market, however, and they’re now down to Nimmo, Broxton, Lagares and a horde of center field minor league signings as a result.

Should Broxton and Lagares falter, we may see Nimmo take center on a regular basis if fellow corner outfielder Yoenis Cespedes returns from his heel surgeries during the season. It’s probably not worth holding your breath for that, though, considering the 33-year-old Cespedes endured back-to-back injury-ruined seasons prior to this one. For now, Cespedes looks like the franchise’s successor to David Wright – a once-fabulous player who turns into a forgotten man because of injuries.

Meantime, the pitching staff is no doubt among the Mets’ greatest strengths. DeGrom’s the reigning NL Cy Young winner, perhaps the game’s supreme ace, and the ex-Van Wagenen client will be with the franchise for a while longer after inking an extension last week. Syndergaaard, whom Van Wagenen also used to represent, is similarly imposing when healthy. However, whether the Mets can bank on his health is up in the air. Injuries held Syndergaard to 30 1/3 innings in 2017 and 154 1/3 last season, after which reports indicated they at least mulled trading the 26-year-old. Unlike deGrom, Syndergaard has not been an extension target for New York to this point. With that in mind, Syndergaard may continue to frequent trade rumors should no agreement come together between him and the team during his final three years of arbitration control.

Behind the enviable deGrom and Syndergaard duo, righty Zack Wheeler figures to further bolster the cause if his tremendous 2018 is any indication. Whether he can continue to stay healthy after missing nearly all of 2015-17 is in question, though. Injuries have also tormented southpaw Steven Matz, who did put forth an encouraging 2018 after a subpar 2017. Fellow lefty Jason Vargas was horrible last season, which gave the Mets room to upgrade their rotation over the winter. To that end, the club reportedly showed interest in Mike Minor, Gio Gonzalez, Martin Perez, Derek Holland, Josh Tomlin and even venerable Indians ace Corey Kluber. However, minor league pickup Hector Santiago is the sole battle-tested starter the Mets have reeled in since last season concluded.

2019 Season Outlook

This is not a team without concerns, but it would still be sane to expect the Mets to return to relevance in 2019. Van Wagenen, in his debut offseason at the controls, did a fine job enhancing the roster around the high-end talent that was already in place. The problem is that the NL East rival Phillies and Nationals also made their share of offseason splashes – and that’s to say nothing of a quality Braves team that reigned over the division last year. It wouldn’t be a surprise this season to see any of those clubs, including the Mets, win a wide-open division or miss the playoffs altogether.

How would you assess the Mets’ offseason?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Mets' offseason?

  • B 53% (1,801)
  • A 34% (1,160)
  • C 8% (288)
  • F 2% (76)
  • D 2% (69)

Total votes: 3,394

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2018-19 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals New York Mets

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

By | at March 30, 2019 12:31am CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Braves stuck to their valuations when it came to offseason trade and free agent targets and ultimately made only a few acquisitions, leaving the team largely reliant upon its abundant young talent as it seeks to repeat as division champion.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired OF Matt Joyce from Giants in exchange for cash considerations
  • Acquired C Raffy Lopez from Padres in exchange for PTBNL or cash

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Atlanta Braves Depth Chart | Atlanta Braves Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Sometimes an offseason involves creative reshuffling, with multiple moves that reshape certain elements of a roster. Other times, you just see your holes and fill ’em up. It was decidedly the latter this time around for the Braves.

There was never any question that the Braves would be hanging onto their young core — including the better portion of their many excellent upper-level prospects. But it was possible to imagine any number of possibilities for GM Alex Anthopoulos and company after the team surprisingly won the National League East last year.

As it turned out, the Braves got their work in early and focused on short-term veterans. Two of those players are quite familiar to the Atlanta faithful. Former star catcher Brian McCann will come back home in a reserve role. He’s a solid veteran and could be a nice value, but there isn’t a ton of upside in the signing.

It’s much the same for outfielder Nick Markakis, who’ll fill the void created by his own departure. Though the Braves reportedly explored other options in right field, they watched several free agents go elsewhere and bypassed trade possibilities to re-up with Markakis. It was a nice price for a guy who won a Silver Slugger last year, but the payout also reflects the skepticism in the 35-year-old’s outlook from the rest of the market. Markakis has been a slightly above average hitter for most of his career and doesn’t seem terribly likely to be anything more than that in 2019.

If those moves prioritized floor over ceiling, the Braves chased the upside with their other signing. Josh Donaldson had been one of the game’s very best players before injuries intervened of late. He’s not particularly young, but isn’t over the hill at 33 years of age. Donaldson slashed 33 long balls with a 151 wRC+ in 2017, so it’s not as if his heyday is well in the rearview mirror.

Adding Donaldson was something of a splurge, in that the Braves had repeatedly given signals they were content with Johan Camargo at third base and also have top prospect Austin Riley waiting in the wings. But it was precisely the kind of move that made sense for a club in this situation. The Braves had ample payroll availability to work with now but were wary of committing too much future spending capacity. They wanted to win now while preserving their long-term contention window. The club has the pieces in place to cover if Donaldson experiences health problems, but was also well-situated to benefit from a premium talent at the hot corner.

Other than that, it was mostly crickets from the Atlanta organization. They brought in veterans Josh Tomlin and Matt Joyce at the tail end of camp to fill out the roster, but there’s no real commitment to either player. That it even proved necessary to grab these sorts of players at the last minute is itself a source of frustration for some fans — and a reflection of the generally cautious approach the Braves ended up taking to outside acquisitions this winter.

Questions Remaining

The Braves are an up-and-coming team that has already arrived. Why, then, is there so much hand-wringing in Atlanta as the season gets underway?

In no small part, it seems to be something of a public relations miscalculation. Many fans have heard all about the Liberty Media overlords. They’re primed for payroll disappointment, familiar with non-committal executive lingo. So when they hear talk about the team’s ability to “shop in any aisle” and are told “there’s no single player that [the team] can’t afford,” they sense a loosening of the pocketbook strings. When they’re told “the payroll will go up for the current year,” they don’t stop to ask whether that means hypothetical spending capacity or actual cash owed on Opening Day; rather, they begin to wonder, “how high?”

The Braves payroll to start the year will actually sit just below the levels carried in the prior two years. While the club says it’s still got more to work with in the middle of the season, that’ll only be deployed if it’s deemed to be warranted. Three division rivals set their sights on mounting challenges, making significant new roster additions to strong existing talent bases. The Braves also clutched onto their many talented, upper-level pitchers when some might have been cashed in to deliver more immediate upgrades. It seems fair to say there’s some risk in the wait-and-see strategy, though it also offers some obvious advantages in preserving resources to address those needs that arise.

The wisdom of hanging onto resources, rather than using them to facilitate bigger acquisitions or patch up issues that have already cropped up, will be tested early. That’s true especially of the pitching staff. There’s loads of talent in Atlanta, but that’s not fully reflected on the current roster. And for every bit of upside, there’s a downside scenario to match.

There’s something symbolic in the fact that Julio Teheran took the ball on Opening Day for the sixth-straight time. For all his positive moments, there were many that believed he ought to be sent out this winter in favor of higher-upside arms. He’s joined by Sean Newcomb, who hasn’t proven capable of taking the next step in the majors, and talented but totally unproven youngsters Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright — neither of whom seemed to have much of a chance at all of earning a MLB job when camp opened. Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman are on the DL to begin the year; both also need to prove their successes in Atlanta last year can be sustained. Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard and others are waiting for their chance to show they deserve permanent jobs; Mike Soroka and perhaps Luiz Gohara will join them in that pursuit if they can get to full health. There are yet more fascinating hurlers lurking from outside the 40-man roster. It’s quite an assemblage of talent, it’s just impossible to tell who’ll end up taking the bulk of the starts and how it’ll all work out.

It was a bit surprising that the Braves weren’t able to condense some of those young players into a high-end starter — a seemingly never-ending, never-fulfilled pursuit for the organization. But it’s also not clear what the possibilities were, and it’s understandable that they were not willing to sell short on their talent for an arm they didn’t believe in.

The lack of action was a bit tougher to understand in the bullpen, though. Injuries struck there as well, with A.J. Minter and Darren O’Day hitting the shelf. The rotation issues also drew away some options, though Max Fried still ended up being stashed in the pen rather than stretched out at Triple-A. There are some good young arms in the mix, and the Braves didn’t exactly need to replace anyone when you look at their full-health unit, but it still might have made sense to commit some cash to bring in a veteran. Luke Jackson and Josh Tomlin are in the pen to begin the year, which hardly seems optimal.

Things seem to be in sturdier shape on the position-player side. The infield, in particular, is a sensibly constructed unit that includes nice flexibility and upside. The big question there is whether Dansby Swanson will advance with the bat. And the team would obviously look better with J.T. Realmuto taking the majority of the time behind the dish, rather than a timeshare between McCann and Tyler Flowers. But there’s a huge ceiling with Donaldson and Freddie Freeman on the corners and Ozzie Albies installed at second.

There does seem to be a missed opportunity in the outfield, however. Solid as he has been, Markakis is hardly an inspiring choice. A run at Bryce Harper was never realistic, but the Braves were ultimately unwilling to go past their valuations on veterans Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley — not stars, at this stage, but younger and with better outlooks at the plate than Markakis. The most intriguing possibility all along was on the trade side, with Mitch Haniger representing a particularly appealing target. But he was never really made available — or, the Braves and others didn’t dangle enough to interest Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. There was some chatter on a few other players, but nothing ever seemed to get very serious.

As it turns out, the Braves will open the year with a curious outfield mix at the MLB level. The veteran Joyce is now backing up Markakis, center fielder Ender Inciarte, and uber-talented youngster Ronald Acuna. Only Acuna hits from the right side; he’s also the least likely player to ride the pine on any given day. Charlie Culberson offers a righty bat with some corner outfield experience, but he’s a marginal hitter historically. The Braves are paying Adam Duvall $2,875,000 to try to figure things out at Triple-A. It still feels like there could be some further moves to sort this situation out. Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe may be facing a bit of a roster crunch early and could be a fit if the teams are willing to strike an early-season deal. Anthopoulos could still look at some waiver options or other low-risk bench moves to get a righty outfield bat on the team.

2019 Outlook

Since we’re mostly analyzing moves (there weren’t many) and then looking at questions (there are quite a few), the above analysis could come off as overly negative. The fact is, the Braves have loads of fascinating players and are just about as likely as any of their three primary division rivals to win the division or take a Wild Card spot. But there was a clear choice here to preserve both mid-2019 and future assets (of the payroll and prospect varieties) rather than to ramp up the roster for the immediate season. There are reasons for that decision, to be sure, but it also increases the risk and is subject to critique.

How would you grade the Braves’ offseason? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Braves' offseason?

  • C 42% (1,799)
  • D 25% (1,078)
  • B 19% (812)
  • F 12% (498)
  • A 3% (134)

Total votes: 4,321

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2018-19 Offseason In Review Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By | at March 29, 2019 5:20pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Cardinals added a major star via trade but otherwise largely doubled down on their existing roster as they seek to break an uncharacteristic string of postseason-free campaigns.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart | St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals have rolled off eleven-straight winning seasons, which is really quite an accomplishment. But the last three of those campaigns have ended without a posteason berth and the club last won the World Series in 2011. It’s hardly an epic drought, but this is an organization that holds itself to a high standard.

The problem, arguably, was that the club has of late lacked truly premium players on an otherwise deep and talented roster. In 2018, no St. Louis player reached five wins above replacement, as measured by Baseball-Reference. The organization seemed like a prime contender to chase after superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Instead of dangling $300MM+ contracts to those younger players, the Cards coughed up some of their solid young MLB assets in a swap that brought in outstanding first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver has at times looked like a quality, mid-rotation hurler; Carson Kelly at one point seemed the long-term replacement for Yadier Molina. Both will now seek to stake out a career in Arizona while their new team mourns the departure of an all-time franchise great.

That acquisition only brought the Cardinals one year of control over Goldschmidt, who was slated to test the open market next winter. But he and the team cozied up quickly and worked out a contract that meets the needs for each. Defensively limited sluggers just don’t earn like they used to. Goldschmidt turns 32 this September, so he’s hardly youthful. And he’ll take home a bigger deal (albeit without the opt-outs) than that secured last winter by top slugger J.D. Martinez (five years, $110MM). It’s sensible for him to take the money now and understandable that the club was willing to pay something close to open-market value to ensure they keep their new lineup centerpiece.

The other major deal struck by the Cards this winter went to an existing player. Having struck gold with their signing last year of starter Miles Mikolas, the team doubled down with a lengthier contract. It’s a manageable risk at $17MM annually over four years, but also represents a good bit of faith in a pitcher who had not even cracked one hundred MLB innings before his triumphant return stateside last year.

St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak obviously felt quite good about the organization’s pitching depth on the whole. But he did make one new acquisition to boost the pen, placing a sensible bet on veteran lefty Andrew Miller. The multi-inning relief ace was limited by a balky knee last year and just wasn’t as sharp as usual. If he can recover some of his lost velocity and get batters to start chasing out of the zone again, Miller could be a bargain. Even if not, he still ought to be an effective relief arm so long as he’s able to stay on the field.

Otherwise, the Cardinals picked around the edges of the roster. They decided to give another year to veteran Adam Wainwright to buttress the rotation — which ultimately made it easier, at least in the short term, to part with Weaver. Veteran receiver Matt Wieters was added late in camp; he beat out Francisco Pena for the right to spell Molina here and there. Drew Robinson was snagged as a utility option, while the team also made low-risk depth moves for hurlers including Ryan Meisinger, Mike Hauschild, Chris Beck, and Tommy Layne.

Questions Remaining

There aren’t many holes on this roster. As we touched on at the outset, though, that isn’t really the question. It’s this: did Mozeliak and co. do enough?

The Cardinals play in the most competitive division in baseball, from top to bottom. While most would tab the Reds and Pirates as underdogs, both project as approximately average teams. The Brewers and Cubs have their warts, but those teams won 96 and 95 games apiece last year, respectively. There’s ample wild card competition in the rest of the National League as well.

While adding Goldschmidt is precisely the kind of move the Cards could and should have made to put more wins into their lineup, it’s arguable they should have done more. A spirited pursuit of Harper or Machado may still have made sense. Had they gone big with another acquisition, the Cards could have used any displaced players as trade chips to boost the pitching. Or, the team could have gone straightaway after high-end arms in free agency or trade. A significant rotation upgrade, high-end closer, or multiple top late-inning relievers could all have made sense. Heck, perhaps they still ought to be in on Craig Kimbrel.

Going with the existing options was certainly defensible in many respects, but the Cardinals will need some things to go their way to take the NL Central. The organization continues to pump out young arms, but they’ll be put to the test to a greater extent than had been hoped due to ongoing injury issues for Carlos Martinez. When he’ll be back isn’t known. Neither can we guess at this point what the team will get from the aging Wainwright, oft-injured Michael Wacha, or still-raw Dakota Hudson — a groundball monster who won the final rotation spot in Martinez’s place. Alex Reyes is a fascinating talent but will be handled carefully after a brutal string of injuries. He’ll be in the pen to open the year. Mikolas and Jack Flaherty were excellent last year but are (in quite different ways) still thin on MLB experience.

The pen has some fire — Jordan Hicks, in particular — but would look that much better with a veteran closer sitting atop the depth chart. Otherwise, there wasn’t much need to spend on depth. The club opened with John Brebbia, Dominic Leone, and Mike Mayers supplementing the above-noted players as middle relievers and John Gant on hand as a swingman. There are some veteran pieces available if any of those arms falter; in addition to the minor-league signees, the club held onto Chasen Shreve after bumping him from the MLB roster and could still hope for contributions from rehabbing, high-priced veterans Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson.

It’s hard to quibble with any of the position players on the roster to open the season; all seem like quality big leaguers. But it’s hard also not to wish that there was one more star-level performer in the mix, with the other players all bumped down a peg on the depth chart. There’s a plethora of ~2 WAR projected players on the roster. If deployed with precision, perhaps the exceedingly deep mix of individuals will play up as a unit. But truly optimal usage is difficult to pull off.

The potential lineup issues are most obvious in the outfield, where the Cardinals feature two bounceback candidates (Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler) who realistically weren’t going anywhere after tough 2018 seasons. Harrison Bader impressed as a rookie, but projection systems expect his bat to take a step back with the bat; it’s the opposite situation for Jose Martinez, a highly talented hitter who probably ought to be on an American League roster. Tyler O’Neill has a chance to be the most productive member of the bunch, but he’ll have to pare back the worrying volume of strikeouts he ran up last year and prove he can overcome the adjustments of MLB pitchers. The Cardinals have already spun off a number of other outfielders in recent seasons — Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Magneuris Sierra — and yet still seem to have a mix that’s deep but potentially lacking in top-end pieces.

It’s not altogether dissimilar in the infield, though it’s easier there to see why the Cards held pat. Matt Carpenter was the team’s best player last year and is an easy choice to pay nearly everyday. They already locked into Paul DeJong with an extension. There’s a sensible platoon match at second between Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko, with the latter joined by Yairo Munoz as utility pieces who can also spell DeJong and help keep the older corner players fresh.

2019 Season Outlook

This club has every hope of returning to the postseason. But it would hardly be surprising to see another disappointing conclusion to the year. It seems fair to say the front office could have pushed harder to boost the near-term outlook, though that would have meant giving up future value in a trade and/or further expanding an Opening Day payroll that is already topping $160MM for the first time in club history.

How do you think the Cards handled things this winter? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Cardinals' offseason?

  • B 52% (2,207)
  • A 29% (1,245)
  • C 13% (541)
  • F 3% (121)
  • D 3% (119)

Total votes: 4,233

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2018-19 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals

Oldest, Youngest Players On MLB Rosters

By | at March 29, 2019 10:47am CDT

Two of Major League Baseball’s most popular elder statesmen, Ichiro Suzuki and Bartolo Colon, may have played their last big league game. Suzuki certainly has, having announced his retirement following an emotional sendoff with the Mariners in the season-opening series against the Athletics in Tokyo. Colon has said he hopes to continue his career but has seemingly not received an offer, as he remains unsigned.

Baseball’s youth movement will continue to push down the average age of a big leaguer, but there are still several graybeards throughout the game, led by baseball’s all-time leader in imaginary arrows fired: Fernando Rodney. Rodney was the only player in all of baseball who opened the season on a big league roster at 40 or older. Here’s a look at the game’s oldest players as the league-wide Opening Day (* = on the Major League injured or restricted list):

Fernando Rodney | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

  1. Fernando Rodney, RHP, Athletics (born 3/18/77)
  2. Albert Pujols, DH/1B, Angels (1/16/80)
  3. Rich Hill, LHP, Dodgers (3/11/80)*
  4. Erik Kratz, C, Giants (6/15/80)
  5. Nelson Cruz, DH/OF, Twins (7/1/80)
  6. CC Sabathia, LHP, Yankees (7/21/80)*
  7. Pat Neshek, RHP, Phillies (9/4/80)
  8. Curtis Granderson, OF, Marlins (3/16/81)
  9. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Cubs (5/26/81)
  10. Oliver Perez, LHP, Indians (8/15/81)

Rodney is leading the charge and still brings a mid-90s heater to the table. The A’s were comfortable exercising an option that guarantees him $5.25MM this season, so if he can turn in another season of solid, albeit characteristically anxiety-inducing relief work, this may not be his final Opening Day. Sabathia is the only lock on this list to retire after the 2019 season. Several of the entrants, in fact, are controlled beyond the 2019 season. Pujols remains under contract through 2021. Cruz, Neshek and Perez each have options for the 2020 season. Kratz will be 39 on June 15 but will still be arbitration-eligible next offseason.

Hill is still a quality starter on the heels of his late-career breakout, and if he can turn in a reasonably healthy year, he should have interest in free agency (assuming he wants to continue pitching). The Grandy Man is among the game’s most revered clubhouse presences and was a solid bat against righties in 2018. Zobrist had a strong showing in his age-37 campaign last year.

On the flip-side of the coin is Toronto’s Rule 5 pick, righty Elvis Luciano. The 19-year-old hadn’t yet seen his second birthday when Pujols and Sabathia began their MLB careers. He’s a bit of an odd man out on a list that is otherwise comprised of elite prospects (or formerly elite prospects who’ve already become stars), but he holds the distinction of starting the season as the game’s most babyfaced talent. Here are baseball’s youngest players as of yesterday…

Elvis Luciano | Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

  1. Elvis Luciano, RHP, Blue Jays (born 2/15/00)
  2. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres (1/2/99)
  3. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals (10/25/98)
  4. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves (12/20/97)
  5. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (12/18/97)
  6. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals (5/19/97)
  7. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (1/7/97)
  8. Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, Yankees (12/13/96)
  9. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (11/27/96)
  10. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox (10/24/96)

Despite their youth, more than half of those 10 players have already completed a full big league season. As one would expect with a group this young but with some notable MLB experience, three of the 10 played significant roles in 2018 Rookie of the Year voting; Acuna took home NL honors in that category ahead of runner-up Soto. Torres finished third in American League voting.

The Braves’ three entrants on this list are a testament to the waves of young talent emerging in Atlanta that should help the organization stay competitive for years to come. The Nationals, likewise, will hope that Soto and Robles comprise two-thirds of their outfield for more than half a decade. San Diego made the bold decision to call Tatis Jr. up to the Majors from Opening Day at a time when teams are famously making a habit of holding potential stars in the Majors for a few weeks to buy an extra year of service (as Atlanta did with Acuna a year ago). The White Sox looked primed to take that approach with Jimenez before ultimately signing him to a record-setting extension and bringing him to the Majors for Opening Day.

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MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By | at March 28, 2019 1:23pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

An 89-win season in 2018 wasn’t enough to satisfy Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto, who took the franchise on an aggressive re-imagining campaign over the winter. Dipoto’s plan is likely to lead to a short-term step back for the Mariners, already the owners of North American sports’ longest playoff drought (18 years), but his hope is that it’ll pave the way for perennial contention over the long haul.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Seattle Mariners Depth Chart | Seattle Mariners Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

It was December 2013, fresh off four straight awful seasons, that Seattle made one of the biggest splashes in the history of free agency by signing ex-Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240MM contract. At the time, then-GM Jack Zduriencik & Co. no doubt envisioned a Cano-led roster competing for World Series. Instead, with the Mariners continuing to disappoint during the first two years of the Cano era, Zduriencik lost his job in August 2015. His ouster led to the hiring of Dipoto, who, almost four years after taking the reins, cut the cord on Cano.

Aside from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs last season, Cano largely lived up to his lofty pact in Seattle. It was the rest of the team that fell short, though, and Dipoto was apparently convinced it would have been more of the same in 2019 had he stayed the course. So, with a half-decade and $120MM still left on Cano’s contract, Dipoto set out this past offseason to clear the 36-year-old off the team’s books before age could truly takes its toll on the eight-time All-Star.

In early December, just over a month after the offseason began across the majors, Dipoto found a taker – the Mets – in a whopper of a trade. When the dust settled, seven players had moved between the two teams, and Seattle had saved $64MM. In the process, the Mariners hauled in three promising prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-handers Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista – for a farm system that has gone from pitiful to presentable in recent months. Additionally, they picked up a pair of veteran stopgaps in outfielder/first baseman Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak to help offset money in the swap. Of course, the deal also saw Seattle wave goodbye to closer Edwin Diaz, one of the premier relievers in baseball. That’s going to hurt, especially considering the flamethrowing Diaz still has four years of control remaining, but the Mariners deemed it acceptable to lose him because it meant getting rid of a large portion of Cano’s money.

True to form, the aggressive, trade-happy Dipoto made several other noteworthy deals in the offseason. One sent No. 1 starter James Paxton and his two years of control to the Yankees for a trio of prospects, including lefty Justus Sheffield, who may be the Mariners’ top farmhand and figures to contribute as early as this season. In another, Dipoto packaged shortstop Jean Segura – who was the source of some clubhouse friction last season, and who had a guaranteed $58MM remaining on his pact – as well as relievers Juan Nicasio ($9MM) and James Pazos to the Phillies for infielder J.P. Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana’s the more proven major leaguer of the two, the real prize for Seattle was the 24-year-old Crawford, a former high-end prospect who the team hopes will emerge as Segura’s long-term successor.

Santana wasn’t long for the Mariners, who quickly dealt him to Cleveland in a three-team trade that also included Tampa Bay. The Mariners acquired first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion in the deal, and though he has been one of the majors’ fiercest sluggers in recent years, it was more about saving a few million dollars and netting a competitive balance pick from the Tribe. That wasn’t the only trade the Mariners pulled off that included the Rays, whom Dipoto has consistently bartered with in his time with the M’s. The first trade he made of the offseason was a five-player deal which saw catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia go to the Rays for center fielder Mallex Smith. Zunino was a competent regular for the Mariners, but he never blossomed into the star they wanted when they selected him third overall in the 2012 draft. Moreover, he has just two years of control left versus four for Smith, a breakout player in 2018 who could be the Mariners’ first mainstay in center since Mike Cameron‘s tenure.

In other trades that’ll have an immediate effect on the major league product, the Mariners nabbed Zunino’s replacement, Omar Narvaez, from the White Sox and got outfielder Domingo Santana from the Brewers. All they had to surrender for Narvaez was reliever Alex Colome. Just about any bullpen would be happy to have Colome, but he’s 30 years old, somewhat pricey ($7.325MM) and two seasons from free agency. He clearly wasn’t a must-have piece for the Mariners in their present state. Narvaez, on the other hand, has been a strong offensive catcher since debuting in 2016 and is under wraps through 2022. While Narvaez is nowhere near the defender Zunino is, it still looks like a worthwhile behind-the-plate switch for the Mariners.

Likewise, the Mariners were within reason to exchange Gamel for Santana in what came off as a floor-for-ceiling trade. Gamel was satisfactory from 2017-18, but he doesn’t carry the potential of Santana, who was a 30-home run, 3.3-fWAR player in 2017 before taking sizable steps backward last year. But Santana got lost in a crowded Milwaukee outfield in 2018, and he’ll have a chance to regain his footing in a regular role for the Mariners, who have his rights through 2021.

Understandably, trades tend to occupy the lion’s share of talk when it comes to Dipoto. However, he also did quite a bit of work in free agency this past offseason. His most important transaction was reeling in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who could emerge as the franchise’s latest Japanese-born cornerstone. The Mariners had to beat out a slew of teams for Kikuchi, a 27-year-old who fared pretty well in his first meaningful outing in the majors – a win over the Athletics last week in his homeland – and has the potential to serve as a solid starter in Seattle for a while.

Dipoto also landed Diaz’s immediate successor, Hunter Strickland, via the open market. The former Giant, 30, largely held his own with them, though he did struggle in 2018. Still, for just a $1.3MM guarantee, you can’t fault the Mariners for taking a shot on Strickland. The same logic applies to infielder Tim Beckham, their shortstop until the optioned Crawford shows up in the majors. Although Beckham was terrible as a member of the Orioles in 2018, he’s a former No. 1 overall pick (the Rays took him in 2008) who was a 3.4-fWAR player in 2017. Again, for just over $1MM, he’s worth a try. If nothing else, he’ll provide the Mariners a Band-Aid at short as they give Crawford further seasoning/manipulate his service time in the minors.

Questions Remaining

As you’d expect, there are more questions than answers with this roster. For one, who’s the next veteran Dipoto will trade? If he has his way, it may be Encarnacion, though the Mariners haven’t been able to find a match for the declining, expensive 36-year-old thus far. Bruce, Swarzak, second baseman Dee Gordon and righty Mike Leake also come to the fore as in-season trade candidates, but nobody from that group carries much value at the moment.

In terms of players who are sure bets to actually help the Mariners win games this year, only excellent right fielder Mitch Haniger truly sticks out. They don’t know what they’ll get from Smith, who wasn’t much of a hitter from 2016-17, or Santana or Beckham; Bruce was abysmal last year, and he’s likely just an average-at-best player nowadays; Encarnacion will have a hard time replacing the departed Nelson Cruz; Narvaez’s troubles behind the dish limit his upside, and it’s surprising the Mariners didn’t find a more credible backup to him than David Freitas (a proven defensive stalwart like Martin Maldonado or Sandy Leon would’ve made sense); Gordon was horrid in 2018; and third baseman Kyle Seager‘s both injured and coming off a poor season, temporarily leaving third to the underwhelming Ryon Healy.

The pitching staff’s best hopes are the untested Kikuchi and Sheffield and fellow lefty Marco Gonzalez, who wasn’t great at preventing runs last year (4.00 ERA) but turned in far more encouraging peripherals en route to 3.5 fWAR. Leake’s a decent, albeit unexciting, option in his own right, and Wade LeBlanc‘s a back-end type at best. Meanwhile, for the many who relished watching Felix Hernandez at the height of his powers, witnessing the former Cy Young winner, 32, turn into a replacement-level starter has been heartbreaking. He and the Mariners may divorce at the end of the season, if not sooner should his stark decline continue. For now, the man who earned the nickname King Felix in his halcyon days is due $27MM in the last guaranteed year of his deal, rendering him immovable.

The Mariners’ bullpen was an above-average unit in 2018, when it finished 10th in fWAR and ERA, but it basically derived all of its value from Diaz, Nicasio, Colome, Pazos and fellow departure Nick Vincent. Beyond Strickland, it now counts other free-agent pickups Cory Gearrin and Zac Rosscup among its most prominent choices. There are a few interesting young arms kicking around the Seattle roster, but there’ll likely be a fair bit of turnover in the relief unit as the season goes along.

2019 Season Outlook

Expect the Mariners to tack another year onto their playoff drought this season. Seattle’s roster isn’t devoid of talent, but so much has to go right that it’s difficult to imagine the M’s busting out as a Cinderella team in 2019. Realistically, if you’re a Mariners fan, hope for growth from the potential building blocks on hand and for as many nonessential vets as possible to increase their trade value.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Mariners' offseason?

  • B 42% (1,648)
  • C 21% (831)
  • A 19% (761)
  • D 11% (446)
  • F 6% (246)

Total votes: 3,932

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2018-19 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Seattle Mariners

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

By | at March 27, 2019 4:35pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

A frugal offseason has given way to a lavish, triumphant spring for the Angels, who no longer have to worry about losing Mike Trout.  The inimitable center fielder is poised to spend his career in Anaheim after inking a decade-long extension last week.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The Angels entered the offseason with only two years of control left over Trout, unquestionably the preeminent player in baseball since he exploded on the scene in 2012. Team success eluded the Angels during the remarkable first seven seasons of Trout’s career, though, as they made the postseason just once (in 2014) and didn’t even win a single playoff game. With that in mind, it would’ve been understandable for Trout to hold off on committing to the Angels for the long haul. On the other hand, it would have been unforgivable for the Halos to not put forth an earnest effort to lock up Trout, who, at 27 years old, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the sport.

To the Angels’ credit, not only did they make an attempt to keep Trout in the fold, but they persuaded him to stay. The 10-year, $360MM extension the Angels gave the seven-time All-Star and two-time MVP stands as the richest contract ever in North American sports, yet the gaudy dollar figure still looks eminently reasonable. The future Hall of Famer is now in line to spend the entirety of his 30s and all of the 2020s in Anaheim, which will give the club plenty of time to capitalize on his presence going forward.

Whether the Angels are in position to take advantage of Trout’s place on their roster this year is in question. Before the Angels locked up Trout, they journeyed through a fairly low-key offseason which included a few modest free-agent signings and no headline-stealing trades. Perhaps if general manager Billy Eppler had his druthers, it would have been a different story. Eppler reportedly targeted a collection of high-profile free agents, including pitchers Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, Zack Britton, David Robertson, Joakim Soria and catchers Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos, but fell short in each pursuit. Still, the majority of Eppler’s prominent offseason acquisitions came at those positions, as he brought in two starters (Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill), a battle-tested closer seeking a rebound from a down season (Cody Allen) and an experienced catcher (Jonathan Lucroy). He also procured first baseman Justin Bour, who thrived in Miami as recently as 2017 but saw his production plummet between the Marlins and Phillies last season.

Before adding those five free agents, Eppler oversaw the Angels’ first managerial search since November 1999, when they hired Mike Scioscia. Trout was only eight years old at the outset of the Scioscia era, a run that included 1,650 regular-season wins and the franchise’s sole World Series title (2002). Scioscia, 60, stepped down after last season, paving the way for the Angels to hire another former major league catcher, Brad Ausmus, as their new skipper. Ausmus managed the Tigers to middling results from 2014-17, though the soon-to-be 50-year-old’s amenability toward analytics helped convince the Angels he merited a second chance atop a big league dugout.

Questions Remaining

The Ausmus-led Angels feature questions aplenty in their pitching staff, in part because of injury issues. Anaheim’s foremost starter, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani, won’t factor in at all as a pitcher this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Likewise, J.C. Ramirez is recovering from TJ surgery, having undergone the procedure nearly a year ago, while Andrew Heaney (elbow inflammation) and Nick Tropeano (shoulder discomfort) are also on the shelf.

It’s paramount for Heaney to return sometime soon, as he turned in 180 respectable innings in 2018 and is likely the Ohtani-less Angels’ No. 1 starter. That’s less a compliment to Heaney — who is solid, granted — than an indictment on the Angels, whose current group of healthy starters doesn’t include anything resembling a front-line option. Harvey qualified as an ace during a stretch with the Mets from 2012-15, but the Dark Knight has since logged a 5.39 ERA/4.76 FIP in 340 1/3 innings and undergone thoracic outlet surgery (in 2016). In fairness to Harvey, who turns 30 today, he did post decent numbers with the Reds after they acquired him from the Mets last May. If he can replicate that performance in Anaheim, he’ll justify the investment.

The club spent a bit less on Cahill, another righty with a history of injuries and inconsistency. The 31-year-old was effective in Oakland last season, though (albeit over just 110 innings), and the Angels are banking on a repeat in 2019. Harvey, Cahill, Tyler Skaggs (who has also dealt with his share of injuries, including this spring), Felix Pena, the just-acquired Chris Stratton and the just-optioned Jaime Barria represent the Angels’ top healthy starters at this point.

If you’re underwhelmed by that group, it’s hard to blame you. If you think the Angels should be going after free agent Dallas Keuchel, who’s inexplicably still available, you’d also be within reason. But Eppler insists he’s bullish on the Angels’ present mix of starters, which seems to make a Keuchel signing unlikely, as does a possible lack of financial wiggle room. The Angels have always run high payrolls under owner Arte Moreno, and that’ll be the case again this season, as they’re at upward of $176MM going into Opening Day. Moreno may not want to go significantly higher than that franchise-record sum. Furthermore, adding Keuchel would either push the Angels into luxury-tax territory or leave them within close proximity of that mark, potentially limiting Moreno’s willingness to approve in-season additions on the trade market. The Halos are currently about $21MM shy of the luxury barrier.

While the Angels’ payroll does rank toward the top of the majors, they’re not spending much on their bullpen. The lone expensive reliever on the roster is Allen, the former Indians closer who joined the Angels on an $8.5MM guarantee in the offseason. Allen has been outstanding for the majority of his career, which began in 2012, though the 30-year-old no longer looks like a shoo-in to offer quality production. Not only was Allen subpar last year, when all of his numbers trended downward to concerning degrees, but he has followed that up with a shaky spring in which his velocity has dipped. The Angels will need the light bulb to go on again for Allen once the regular season begins, especially considering their bullpen lost Blake Parker, Jim Johnson and Jose Alvarez during the winter.

Parker, Johnson and Alvarez were among the Angels’ five leading relievers in terms of innings last year, and each managed passable to above-average run prevention numbers. Alvarez was particularly good, yet the Angels traded him to the Phillies for righty Luis Garcia, who “has the characteristics we gravitate to: strikeouts, ground balls and big stuff,” Eppler said after the deal. It’s anyone’s guess how the trade will pan out, but for now, the loss of Alvarez leaves the Angels devoid of a lefty reliever on their 40-man roster. Allen aside, their bullpen is also lacking a righty with a long track record of success, though 2018 acquisition Ty Buttrey may be on the verge of a breakout if the 16 1/3-inning debut he made last season is any indication. As with Keuchel, Anaheim looks like an on-paper fit for free agent Craig Kimbrel, a possible Hall of Fame closer who’s somehow still without a team. Whether Moreno would sign off on a pricey Kimbrel addition is another matter, but the righty would sure help the Angels’ cause.

A Kimbrel signing wouldn’t answer the questions in the Angels’ position player group, where there are several. Trout, Andrelton Simmons and Ohtani are marvelous, and Justin Upton‘s a valuable left fielder. Ohtani won’t return until at least May, however, and Upton’s going to the injured list with turf toe, leaving the Angels with just two guaranteed big-time producers in Trout and Simmons.

Potential Upton replacements in the just-selected Peter Bourjos, Jarrett Parker and Cesar Puello don’t inspire confidence, and unproven outfield prospect Michael Hermosillo (hernia surgery) could also open the season on the IL. Elsewhere in the outfield, while Kole Calhoun has been a better-than-average player for most of his career, he was a replacement-level performer last season.

Turning to the infield, third baseman Zack Cozart underwhelmed last season in the opening act of a three-year, $38MM contract. Lucroy has accounted for minus-0.9 fWAR dating back to 2017, while what remains of the once-amazing Albert Pujols totaled minus-2.1 in the same two-year span. Bour was little more than a league-average offensive first baseman in 2018. At second base, David Fletcher wasn’t much of an offensive threat during his 307-PA debut last season, but he starred as a minor league hitter earlier in the campaign and then stood out as a defender in his initial taste of the majors

The Angels still sought some insurance to help protect against another poor Cozart season and a sophomore slump from Fletcher, though, as they reportedly showed interest in Mike Moustakas, Josh Harrison and Troy Tulowitzki in free agency. In the end, they came away with a trade for the 30-year-old Tommy La Stella, who has been a playable bench piece with the Braves and Cubs over almost 1,000 PAs.

2019 Season Outlook

Trout and Simmons are something like five three-WAR players condensed into two, which raises the Angels’ floor to a considerable extent. Otherwise, there are so many performance- and injury-related concerns on Anaheim’s roster that it’s hard to consider the team a strong bet to break its four-year playoff drought. The good news is that the Angels could benefit from being in a league which lacks a surefire contender after the favored Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians. The Angels should be part of a several-team jumble fighting for the AL’s last postseason spot, which may only require 80-some wins to secure. The club is entering 2019 off back-to-back seasons of 80 victories, a number PECOTA projects it to match this year.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason moves?  (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

How would you grade the Angels' offseason?

  • C 34% (1,106)
  • B 33% (1,084)
  • A 17% (573)
  • D 11% (348)
  • F 5% (170)

Total votes: 3,281

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Market Situation For Dallas Keuchel

By | at March 27, 2019 11:09am CDT

Precisely why Dallas Keuchel remains unemployed isn’t entirely known or even knowable. Perhaps he squandered early market opportunities with too high an asking price. It may be that he’s still holding out unrealistic demands. On the other side, clubs are arguably far too willing to roll the dice on fresh young arms. Perhaps they’re too determined to maintain mid-season and future financial flexibility at the expense of immediate, season-long improvements.

[RELATED: Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel]

The market has been quiet. Last we heard any news on Keuchel, agent Scott Boras said that the accomplished hurler was building up arm strength just as he would have in a team’s camp. While the market situation remains extremely foggy, Boras added that offers were still coming in. Keuchel still isn’t willing to take a “pillow contract,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets today, so it seems he’s still holding out hope for a multi-year arrangement of some kind. He could follow the Kendrys Morales approach of waiting until the June draft to sign, thus shedding the requirement that a signing team surrender draft compensation, but that’s hardly the preferred means of procuring a desirable, long-term deal.

The real question remains: what teams are really motivated to go after Keuchel? We’ve looked previously at the market setting for the other unsigned hurler of note, Craig Kimbrel. Now we’ll do so with respect to Keuchel, taking a somewhat different angle of approach. While both are entering age-31 seasons in search of big money, with potential luxury tax ramifications for the signing team, their different pitching roles make for different market circumstances.

Rather than trying to create labels or categories, we’ll just run through the possibilities in narrative form. Here’s how the market breaks down …

It’s rarely wise to rule out teams entirely, but some teams lack the outlook and resources to be worthy of further consideration. The Orioles and Marlins can safely be scratched off the list of possibilities. It’d be nothing short of shocking to see the Royals make such a move when the club is already pushing high-priced starters into the bullpen. While the Giants and Rangers have much greater spending capacity, they’ve already got staffs full of veterans that include some significant financial commitments. The Tigers also seem to have already placed their bets for the coming season.

Neither is it really possible to envision a path for certain teams that have real hopes of winning seasons in 2019. The Indians and Pirates are low-budget contenders that don’t have the need to spend in the rotation; the Cubs and Red Sox are big-budget contenders that have full starting units and have probably already committed their 2019 payroll.

It’s not much easier to see a variety of other contending teams as Keuchel pursuers, though as we go down the line it becomes somewhat easier to imagine a move. The Boras connection to the Nationals means you can never say never, but the organization wants to stay below the luxury line and already has promised rotation spots to give hurlers. While some injuries arguably create an opening for the Dodgers, they still have ample options on hand and it’s tough to imagine them shoe-horning yet another pitcher onto their 40-man.  Similarly, the Yankees have options — a trio of young arms holding down the fort with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Gio Gonzalez waiting in the wings — but could still stand to stamp out some uncertainty. In years past, one or more of these clubs might have shrugged and thrown a stack of cash at Keuchel. It doesn’t feel very likely in this climate, particularly with the luxury tax implications for all of these clubs.

Several lesser-spending teams arguably make more sense on paper, but still feel unlikely. The Rockies, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers could upgrade a rotation spot and boost their depth by adding Keuchel, but all likely feel it wouldn’t be enough of an improvement to warrant the cost with other, more pressing areas of need on their rosters.

Perhaps there’s a bit more cause for a pair of other National League clubs to consider a bold move. Like the above-mentioned teams, the value of a win is quite high given the densely packed divisions. But there’s a stronger case for Keuchel in particular for the Mets and Phillies. Both organizations have already already spent big on veterans. The former could bite the bullet and knock Jason Vargas out of the rotation. The latter could plug the higher-floor Keuchel into the starting unit while deploying Vince Velasquez as a potentially fascinating multi-inning reliever.

There’s at least an argument to be made for some other teams to take a look at the right price, even if the move would largely be future-oriented. Several American League clubs are lining up for a 2020 push — and surely also realize there’s at least some opening to surprise in the current year. At the right price point, Keuchel could be a value on a multi-year deal. The Mariners are always tinkering. The White Sox missed on their biggest targets. The Blue Jays added a few low-cost veterans but have tons of rotation uncertainty now and in the future. And on the NL side, the Diamondbacks are attempting to stay competitive while undergoing some roster changes.

Here’s about where things start to get interesting. The Rays already spent on Charlie Morton, but could consider Keuchel on much the same theory if the deal is short enough in length. While the Twins picked up Martin Perez to fill out their rotation, and have some younger depth pieces as well, the teams still has only meager future commitments and a big opportunity in the division.Neither of these teams really wants to spend on Keuchel past the present season, but there’s an argument that both should strongly consider making an exception.

Hopping over to the AL West, there are three clubs that make some degree of sense. The incumbent Astros know Keuchel better than anyone. They have kept in touch all winter long and remain an obvious fall-back spot, though it doesn’t seem they’ll move up their offer with so many internal options still available. The Angels and Athletics have ample need in the rotation. The public indications are that they’re fresh out of spending availability, but both organizations could justify stretching for Keuchel at this time.

Perhaps no teams in baseball make greater sense, though, than the Padres and Braves. It’s already an eye-popping offseason in San Diego, with Manny Machado coming aboard and top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack making the Opening Roster, but the club’s rotation is still loaded with uncertainty. The Atlanta organization is defending a division title against three strong adversaries, has made it clear it has financial resources available now and in the future, and has seen several notable health questions arise in camp.

It’s hard to call any team in baseball an obvious favorite at this point. An injury could change the field quite a bit, though it’s anyone’s guess whether and when that might occur and Keuchel’s appeal as an immediate option will not exactly grow as he sits on the sidelines. It’s a tough spot for the veteran.

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Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By | at March 26, 2019 12:15am CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Apart from a late push in the Bryce Harper market, the Giants stuck to mostly low-profile signings and acquisitions in Farhan Zaidi’s first offseason as the club’s president of baseball operations.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Giants Organizational Depth Chart | Giants Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Signed to a minor league deal last offseason, Derek Holland ended up being a major bargain for the Giants.  After four injury-riddled and ineffective years with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland got back on track by posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.88 K/9, and 2.52 K/9 rate over 171 1/3 innings for San Francisco in 2018.

The Reds, Rangers, and Mets were all linked to Holland over the course of the winter, though the southpaw ended up returning to the Giants on a one-year deal worth $7MM in guaranteed money, plus the club holds an option for 2020 that could result in Holland earning as much as $15MM over the course of the next two seasons.  There weren’t any big red flags in Holland’s peripherals from last season, so this new contract would also be well worth the Giants’ while if Holland remains healthy.

Drew PomeranzThere’s more of an injury concern in regards to new arrival Drew Pomeranz, who has had health issues over the course of his career and pitched only 74 innings last season due to a variety of arm problems.  At just a $1.5MM guaranteed salary, however, the Giants aren’t taking much of a financial risk on Pomeranz, and he is only a year removed from giving the Red Sox 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA pitching.  Pomeranz is penciled in as the fifth starter (behind Madison Bumgarner, Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Dereck Rodriguez). San Francisco has the likes of Andrew Suarez, waiver claims Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez (if they clear waivers and remain in the organization), and former first-rounder Tyler Beede as Triple-A depth options.

Hunter Strickland was somewhat surprisingly let go just prior to the non-tender deadline, though the Giants have been getting good results from many of their relievers this spring, leaving the club with a bit of a logjam for the Opening Day bullpen.  Rule 5 Draft pick Travis Bergen has to remain on the MLB roster all season or else be offered back to Toronto, though Bergen has pitched well enough to retain his position regardless.  Low-risk acquisitions Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott, Fernando Abad, or Pat Venditte could either provide depth if they remain in the organization, win jobs outright, or potentially move into roles left open should the Giants swing a late trade involving Will Smith or Tony Watson.

A change was made at backup catcher, as Nick Hundley will be replaced by pair of late-spring acquisitions.  After it seemed like rookie Aramis Garcia and minor league signings Rene Rivera and Stephen Vogt would vie for the job, San Francisco changed course by adding veterans Erik Kratz and Tom Murphy.  Rivera was cut loose, while Vogt and Garcia will provide additional depth in the minors.  It seems like enough of a logjam that a future move seems inevitable, though the Giants want to have plenty of catching on hand as Buster Posey recovers from hip surgery.  On the plus side, Posey seems to be making good progress and is on track to appear in the Opening Day lineup, though obviously the Giants will keep a close eye on their franchise player’s status.

Outfield was the Giants’ biggest need heading into the offseason, and the club ultimately brought in a number of new faces to supplement youngster Steven Duggar (who looks to play more or less every day in center field).  Former Rockies/Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra will make the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league contract.  The Giants essentially swapped one Rule 5 pick for another in trading for Connor Joe and letting Drew Ferguson return to the Astros.  Michael Reed, Mike Gerber, and Craig Gentry are also on hand, while incumbent Mac Williamson remains in the mix for at least part-time duty in left field.

Yangervis Solarte hasn’t appeared in a big league game as an outfielder since 2014, though the former Blue Jays utilityman has been working out in left field during Spring Training with an eye towards improving his versatility.  Between Solarte, Joe, and Alen Hanson, the Giants have several players with experience at multiple positions — potentially bumping Pablo Sandoval out of the mix.

Questions Remaining

Of course, the Giants could have made a much more newsworthy outfield upgrade had they landed Harper.  The team was something of an eleventh-hour entry into “Harper’s Bazaar,” though San Francisco ended up being Harper’s apparent second choice before the star free agent signed a (temporarily) record-setting 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies.  The Giants’ reported offer of 12 years and $310MM fell shy, though the team would’ve had to top the $350MM mark to truly outbid the Phillies due to California’s higher tax rate.

It goes without saying that signing Harper would’ve changed not only the trajectory of this Giants offseason, but also the team’s outlook for the next several years.  With Harper in the fold, the Giants would have indicated a full-fledged push towards contending while many of their highest-salaried players (Bumgarner through this season, Samardzija and Mark Melancon through 2020, and then Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, and Evan Longoria through 2021) are still with the team.  Along those same lines, the Giants also had interest in signing Yusei Kikuchi before the Japanese left-hander joined the Mariners.

Without Harper or Kikuchi, however, San Francisco left the offseason still straddling the middle ground between contending and fully rebuilding.  The club has to this point resisted overtures from rival teams and held on to Bumgarner, Watson, and Smith; yet the Giants also took a very modest approach to adding to their roster.  They weren’t going to deal any prospects from an already-thin farm system, and they settled for inexpensive free agent and trade additions after missing out on Kikuchi and Harper.

Joe Panik‘s status is perhaps indicative of the Giants’ overall stance this offseason.  The team kept Panik in the fold rather than non-tendering him following an injury-shortened and replacement-level season, at a one-year, $3.8MM deal to avoid arbitration.  At the same time, however, San Francisco also looked into signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu while checking the trade market to see what could be obtained for Panik.  As it turned out, the Giants didn’t get that upgrade, and will instead go into the season with a known quantity in Panik who the club hopes will rebound.

A case can be made that Zaidi may be waiting to see how things shake out; come mid-season, he may have some new trade avenues or even the makings of a contending core.  After all, Posey, Belt, Bumgarner, Samardzija, Crawford, and Melancon were all limited by injuries in 2018 — better health from even a few of those names would likely make a difference in the standings.  A full teardown wasn’t really possible this winter anyway since so many of those same players have limited trade value, due to their down years, health histories, hefty contracts, no-trade clauses, or all of the above.

On the other hand, it’s also unrealistic to imagine that all of those veterans will enjoy bounce-back years.  With so many big contracts already verging on albatross territory for the team, one can’t entirely blame Zaidi for eschewing the type of expensive acquisitions that have backfired on the Giants in recent years.  Signing a Harper or a Kikuchi is one thing, though settling for a lower-tier free agent as a stopgap isn’t the type of move that would fuel a bigger jump up the standings.

If San Francisco isn’t contending by midseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club shift into a more definitive sell mode, at the very least on pending free agents like Bumgarner or Smith.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see the Giants explore being both buyers and sellers at the deadline — moving some short-term assets while taking on an expensive longer-term asset that could help them in 2020 or beyond.  If the Giants were willing to spend $310MM on Harper, they’re clearly open to exceeding the luxury tax threshold again in order to land premium talent.

Should 2019 end up being the last hurrah for this group of Giants stars before a rebuild, it’s perhaps fitting longtime manager Bruce Bochy will retire when the year is out.  The three-time World Series champion will manage a 25th season before stepping out of the dugout and starting his inevitable path to Cooperstown.

2019 Season Outlook

Frankly, there’s still a few days for the roster to change, which could shift the outlook. Regardless, an awful lot would have to go right for the Giants to go from 89 losses in 2018 to a playoff contender in 2019.  In a very competitive National League, the Giants could themselves battling to stay out of last place in their division, rather than challenging the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Giants' Offseason?

  • D 38% (1,625)
  • C 30% (1,285)
  • F 21% (915)
  • B 8% (360)
  • A 2% (77)

Total votes: 4,262

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2019

By | at March 25, 2019 5:20pm CDT

In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ‘faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season.  Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that recently, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is some subjectivity involved on the borderline teams.  I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2019 season with faith and hope: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, Twins, Astros, Athletics, Angels, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks

Teams that enter 2019 without faith and hope: Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Marlins, Giants

Conclusion: 70% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2019.

Arguable teams:

  • The Blue Jays carry a 76 win projection and a 3.9% chance of reaching the playoffs.  If a team has a high-70s win projection, we look at its offseason to determine its interest in winning.  The Jays’ offseason was clearly that of a club that is not pushing to win in 2019.
  • It feels like the White Sox tried to pull out of their rebuild in the 2018-19 offseason, but their pursuit of Manny Machado and other big names fell short.  Looking at the veterans they did acquire, plus a 72 win projection and 1.1% chance of making the playoffs, and the Sox deserve to be lumped in with the Tigers and Royals in baseball’s least competitive division.
  • The Rangers’ preseason projections are about the same as the White Sox.  Texas spent a fair bit of money stocking their rotation with post-Tommy John pitchers, most notably Lance Lynn.  But so many things would have to go right for this team to sniff the playoffs that we have to classify them as a team without faith and hope this year.
  • The Mariners have already snagged a couple of wins in Tokyo, pushing their projection to 76 and playoff odds to 3.6%.  GM Jerry Dipoto authored a complicated offseason that involved shipping off Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and James Pazos.  In some cases, Dipoto acquired big leaguers in return, and he also signed Yusei Kikuchi, but it’s clear the Mariners are prepared to take a step back in 2019 even if they have not committed to a multiyear rebuild.
  • The Reds have a 79 win projection, but the relative parity of the NL Central means they have a 15.7% shot at the playoffs.  Plus, the Reds were clearly in go-for-it mode during the winter, bringing in Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Alex Wood to lead a retooled rotation.  They also added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  An extension from the Reds will prevent Gray from reaching free agency after the winter, but all the other key acquisitions will be eligible.  Give the Reds credit: they’re trying.
  • The Pirates aren’t much better than a team like the Mariners, but the Bucs carry an 11.4% shot at the playoffs given their division.  The club had an extremely low-key offseason, missing an opportunity to more clearly position themselves as contenders.  The team did little to earn the designation of a team trying to win, but it’s still true that their fans have faith and hope entering the 2019 campaign.
  • The Diamondbacks are a lot like the Pirates: they have a 77 win projection and a 9.7% chance at the playoffs.  The team made bargain acquisitions and shipped off longtime star Paul Goldschmidt.  Still, the D’Backs focused on Major League players in return for Goldy, who was in the final year of his contract.  They are the most borderline of the borderline cases, but there’s enough chance of a long shot playoff run to put them in the “faith and hope” category.
  • I can’t say the same for the Giants, who finished second in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and own a 73 win projection and 3.5% chance at the playoffs.  Like many of the teams listed here, I wouldn’t call the Giants a rebuilding team at present.  However, their biggest offseason move was re-signing Derek Holland, their outfield may be the game’s worst, and it’s a club without a real chance of contending.  Contrast that with the Padres, who might only be 4-5 wins better than the Giants but added a superstar player in Manny Machado and will conceivably look to add this summer rather than subtract.
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