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Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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It’s rare that a 100-win season can feel like a let-down, but when one’s chief division rival wins 108 games and captures a World Series title, the sentiment is more understandable. That’s the situation in which the Yankees find themselves, and they’ll likely act aggressively in an effort to close that gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Yankees depth chart | New York Yankees payroll outlook]

Last offseason, much was made of the efforts by the Yankees (and several other big-market organizations) to dip below the $197MM luxury tax barrier (which rises to $206MM for the upcoming season). With mega-stars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado looming on the horizon, there was a belief in many instances that teams were preparing to make a run at one or both 26-year-old MVP-caliber talents. That may not have genuinely been true of all teams that endeavored to reset their tax penalty, but it does seem that there was some truth to that belief as pertains to the Yankees. They’ve already been connected to both and likely will continue to be until the pair has signed (be it in the Bronx or elsewhere).

Harper is a clumsier fit for the Yankees, who already are set to deploy an outfield mix including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and, if he’s healthy and still with the organization, Jacoby Ellsbury. Long-lauded prospect Clint Frazier, too, remains a consideration after an injury-marred 2018 campaign. Given that mix of outfielders, there’s no clear “need” for Harper, though as is always the case with this type of player, there will be multiple teams without an immediately clear “need” that are in the mix. In fact, that same perception applied to an extent last year when the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins.

If the Yankees were to embark on a serious pursuit of Harper, there’d be multiple avenues to making the arrangement work. Harper could rotate through the corner outfield/DH spots with Stanton and Judge, with each seeing occasional time at DH in order to best remain healthy and fresh throughout the year. Agent Scott Boras has already pitched the idea that Harper could be a quality option at first base, though it doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees (or any other club) would simply plug him in as the everyday option there; perhaps he could get an occasional start at the position against tough righties to spell Luke Voit. The specifics behind a theoretical Harper-to-Yankees scenario are probably not all that worth dwelling on, as they seem likely to remain just that — theoretical. The fit is a bit messy, and while the Yankees won’t be entirely ruled out so long as he’s a free agent, they’re also unlikely to be portrayed as a significant favorite.

That’s less the case for Machado, whose fit in the Bronx became even clearer with the revelation that Didi Gregorius would require Tommy John surgery that’ll keep him out for much of the 2019 season. Depending on when medical experts project Gregorius to be able to return, it’s even possible that he’ll be non-tendered or signed to a different contract that lessens the burden of next season’s projected $12.4MM salary. His future is likely being debated among Yankees officials extensively, and without any specific insight into his exact recovery timeline, it’s tough to forecast exactly how (or if) he factors into the organizational plans. Gregorius is, after all, slated to become a free agent next winter.

Regardless of the return date for Gregorius, his injury opens a clear spot to play Machado at shortstop for the first few months of the 2019 season — and possibly beyond. Machado would give the Yankees a middle-of-the-order presence at a premium position, and while signing him would all but assure a return to luxury tax territory, the Yankees would be in the lowest penalty bracket thanks to last year’s financial machinations.

Concerns regarding Machado’s makeup abound following his October comments about his habitual lack of hustle and his likely deliberate clipping of Jesus Aguilar’s foot on a play at first base in the NLCS. Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner has already declared that such antics “ain’t going to sell where we play baseball,” and emphasized the importance of the organization having a heart-to-heart discussion with Machado regarding his attitude. To be fair to Machado, while his “Johnny Hustle” and “not my cup of tea” comments reflect poorly, the latter half of his sentiments — the ones in which he said his lack of hustle “looks terrible” and is something he’s worked to change — have been largely ignored in favor of the more sordid portion of his interview. He clearly should have taken a more apologetic tone in the first place, but he’ll surely point to the second half of his comments when meeting with teams in an effort to curb the sting of his jarring comments. As for his actions against Aguilar, it’s unclear exactly how he could justify that behavior.

Looking strictly at the on-field fit, adding Machado would create some problems for the Yankees — at least on the defensive side of the equation. For all of rookie third baseman Miguel Andujar’s accolades at the plate, he rated as the worst defensive third baseman in the Majors this past season by measure of Defensive Runs Saved (-25), Ultimate Zone Rating (-16.0) and Revised Zone Rating (.634). Machado’s glovework at shortstop also checked in well below average, and while he made some improvements as the season wore on, the defensive pairing of Andujar and Machado on the left side of the infield would be lacking.

That dovetails, to an extent, with the Yankees’ need for rotation improvements. Andujar’s bat makes him a fan favorite in the Bronx, but there’s been plenty of speculation that he could also be used as a trade chip in order to acquire some rotation help. Machado could slide over to third base in that instance, with Gleyber Torres assuming his natural position at shortstop. That’d free the Yankees to peruse a deep slate of options at second base, where free-agent options would include Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu and Jed Lowrie, among others.

Including Andujar in a trade for rotation help is far from a given and is but one of many possibilities that Cashman and his staff figure to explore when looking to add to a group that is still unsettled even after re-signing CC Sabathia almost immediately after free agency began. Trade possibilities will be plentiful, with James Paxton, Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and even Indians stars Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer seeing their names surface in early offseason rumors. Free agency will have its options, too; Patrick Corbin heads up the free-agent market and has been connected to the Yankees for the better part of a season. Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Nathan Eovaldi are among the next tier of names that could be considered.

Of course, the Yankees have a trade candidate of their own on the roster at present. Sonny Gray’s time in Yankee pinstripes is all but finished, as Cashman as taken the somewhat uncommon approach of publicly declaring that a change of scenery is likely best for Gray. At least five clubs already have interest in Gray, who was generally excellent away from Yankee Stadium in 2018, so the Yankees should find a trade partner — perhaps even one willing to send something of modest 2019 value in return.

However things shake out with Gray, the Yankees seem likely to add multiple starting options this winter. Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and Sabathia are currently penciled into the rotation, and while fans are anxiously anticipating the day when Justus Sheffield receives an earnest look as a starter, the team would be better served if Sheffield were able to be eased into the mix rather than thrown into the fire and counted on as a contributor from day one. Beyond Sheffield, names like Jonathan Loaisiga, Domingo German and Chance Adams can be viewed as depth options or possible bullpen pieces, depending on organizational preference.

On the subject of the bullpen, the Yankees already have an imposing group of relievers that could withstand the losses of both David Robertson and Zach Britton. Currently, the relief corps is anchored by Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green. Jonathan Holder made strong strides in 2018, as well, while Tommy Kahnle remains with the club as a high-upside option coming off a disastrous 2018 campaign. That’s a nice foundation to a strong ’pen, but there’s clearly room for the Yankees to add to the mix — with a possible emphasis on looking at options who throw from the left side. A reunion with either Robertson or Britton would certainly make sense, but there should be quality options at more affordable rates in free agency. The trade market, too, will feature myriad options as it does every offseason (as explored in MLBTR’s Market Snapshots for righty and lefty relievers).

As far as the Yankees’ lineup is concerned, there’s arguably only a true need for one significant upgrade — be it at shortstop to replace Gregorius for half the season or at second base in the event that Torres slides over to short in Sir Didi’s absence. Beyond the bevy of corner outfield options noted above, Aaron Hicks delivered a terrific all-around season in center and should be counted on as the primary option there. Voit’s Herculean showing in September may have earned him a legitimate look at first base, leaving Greg Bird behind as a leapfrogged depth option. Perhaps relying on a pair of players who are still largely unproven would be leaving too much to chance for the Yankees, however. If that’s the case, then there’s no reason they couldn’t make a legitimate run at perennial NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, for whom the D-backs are reportedly open to exploring trades. Goldschmidt is only a season away from reaching free agency, but would be a massive addition to the lineup and the rental scenario has its advantages as well. (He wouldn’t tie the organization’s hands in the long run and the club could anticipate recouping draft compensation through the qualifying offer system at season’s end.)

Gary Sanchez struggled through a miserable season at the plate, but he’s since undergone left shoulder surgery to address an issue that could certainly have impacted his swing. He’s expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. I’d argue that the Yankees could be well-served to add a backup option with more offensive upside than Romine — particularly with Sanchez now recovering from surgery — but Cashman suggested last season that non-tendering Romine was never really a consideration. Romine, to his credit, showed more power than ever in 2018 and seemed to take a legitimate step forward with the bat — all while delivering solid defensive contributions.

Perhaps for the Yankees, then, the rest of the bench will be the primary area of focus once the middle-infield situation is sorted. Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes and recent waiver claim Hanser Alberto are among the top options for a utility infield role, but none brings much in the way of offense to the table. There’s arguably no great need for a player of Marwin Gonzalez’s caliber, but there’s also little denying that he’d strengthen the bench and give the Yankees the type of versatility that teams increasingly covet. While he’ll be substantially move expensive than Neil Walker was last winter, Gonzalez would fill the role Walker occupied much more capably for years to come. In theory, he could even be the Yankees’ primary infield addition if Machado lands elsewhere, as he’d be more than capable of starting at second base while Gregorius mends.

That’s likely too great a focus on one individual option, however — particularly one who’d fit on virtually any team in the league. Any of Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera or Josh Harrison could be fits in a semi-regular role before shifting to a utility capacity when the Yankees are at full strength. If the organizational preference is to simply find a strong defender to replace Gregorius in the early going, either Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis could fit that bill before moving into a utility role later on, though neither brings much offensive excitement to the table.

Generally speaking, the Yankees have the ability to spend at levels that far outpace their financial behavior in recent offseasons. New York has $156MM on the books in 2019 (including arbitration projections and pre-arb players) and would see that number dip to $147MM if and when Gray is traded. That’s a relative pittance for a club that has opened the season with a $200MM+ payroll eight times dating back to the 2008 season. And, taking a long-term look, the Yankees have just two contracts on the books as soon as 2021 — those of Stanton and Chapman, either of whom could technically opt out of their contracts before that point.

Viewed through that lens, the Yankees have the resources to be as bold as they like this offseason. The most straightforward approach could include something like signing Machado and Corbin while also trading for Paxton, and they’d have the financial means to not only do so with ease but to do so with the knowledge that such an aggressive slate of moves could come with just a single year of luxury tax penalties. That’s but one example of the manner in which the Yankees could operate this winter — and, likely, one that is too simplistic — but serves to underscore one bottom-line point: if they wish to do so, the Yankees are better-positioned than at any point in the past half decade to emulate the “Evil Empire” era with a hyper-aggressive series of offseason expenditures.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom

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Over the next couple weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

The most interesting arbitration case of 2019 is probably Jacob deGrom. The arbitration system is an antiquated method of player compensation. While teams on the free agent market bid based on innovative stats, other numbers that reflect more accurate player valuations, and detailed scouting assessments, the arbitration system still uses stats like wins, saves, and RBI that teams have since discarded in their player evaluation. The stats remain important because a couple hundred players become eligible for arbitration every year, and everyone knows what criteria the system uses.

But arbitration also rewards hardware. An MVP or Cy Young Award can weigh heavily on the ultimate salary a player will take home, and until recently those awards were often based on antiquated statistics like wins. The press was a few steps behind front offices in innovation—after all, that’s probably how it should be.

All these differing forces crash into each other in 2019, as deGrom enters his third year of arbitration eligibility with a mere 10-9 record, but a Cy Young Award. And it was not just a squeaker he won without real competition —he got all but one first place vote in a year where Max Scherzer won 18 games, had a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 300 hitters. Aaron Nola won 17 games this year with a 2.37 ERA too. There were clearly other contenders, but deGrom won thanks to a more knowledgeable press base that eschewed wins and focused on his sensational overall performance.

Arbitration still uses wins, however. And that could easily downgrade deGrom. In fact, my model—which is backward looking by design, asking what raises players have gotten historically with similar statistics—sees deGrom earning a mere $5.5 million raise, which would bring him up to a $12.9 million salary. Back in 2014, Scherzer himself won a Cy Young with a 21-3 record and a 2.90 ERA, striking out 240 in 214.1 innings. That got him an $8.8 million raise, a record for third time eligible starting pitchers which still stands today. The eleven fewer wins are the main reason the model is more skeptical of deGrom. After all, the strikeouts and innings are similar and deGrom’s ERA was a full point lower.

The model could easily miss here. If a panel decides to ignore wins like the Cy Young voters did, it could easily give deGrom a $9 or $10 million raise (and somewhere around a $17 million salary), possibly setting off a new wave of arbitration cases that could simultaneously give arbitration-eligible pitchers salaries more in line with their relative value, all while forcing the unfortunate arbitration salary modelers of this world to retool their models!

Of course, maybe the model is just right. Maybe the Mets will be able to persuade a panel — or, more likely, persuade CAA Sports (the agency that only recently employed new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen) that a panel would be persuaded — that wins will be valued as they have in the past, substantially harming deGrom’s argument. In that case, we would need to look for pitchers with very low win totals and very low ERAs. Only a few names surface.

By far the most interesting is Jeff Samardzija. In 2015, Samardzija went 7-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings, and earned a $4.34 million raise. That seems like an absolute floor for deGrom, who clearly bested Samardzija on every major statistic—even wins. Plus, that was four years ago and is probably a little stale.

There are not even that many very low ERA seasons to look at. Cole Hamels got a $5.5 million raise seven years ago with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA. The model is essentially predicting that deGrom gets Hamels’ raise despite the staleness of that case, and despite the fact that deGrom topped Hamels in every category but wins.

Perhaps another interesting comparable could be David Price, who went 15-12 with a 3.26 ERA in 2015. The most notable aspect of his case though, is the fact that his tally of 271 strikeouts is quite similar to deGrom’s 269. Probably the most compelling aspect of Price’s case, however, was his accumulation of 248.1 innings. That tops deGrom by over thirty frames. Price’s $5.75 million raise could be argued as a ceiling on that front as well. There is a key difference cutting in the other direction, of course, in the form of the extra 1.5 earned runs Price allowed per nine innings.

Whatever deGrom gets, he is sure to set an interesting precedent going forward. Will arbitration panels stop paying as much attention to wins? How will they consider extremely low ERAs? How will Cy Young Awards come into play? The most interesting case of 2019 probably has some light to shine on these questions.

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer.  Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

Astros

The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel.  The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock.  The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case.  Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.

Dodgers

The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Nationals

The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.

Red Sox

The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.

The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s.  The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s.  The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin.  Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Lose By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Bryce Harper, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Yasmani Grandal, and A.J. Pollock were the six free agents this year to receive and turn down a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from their teams this month.  If those players sign elsewhere, here’s a look at the draft picks the signing team would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Nationals

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2019 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.  Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though it’s probably more likely for the Nationals.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.

All Other Clubs: Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground, but it would sting for a team like the White Sox to sacrifice a pick in the 40s.

What happens if a team signs two of these six free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

Looking For A Match In A Carlos Santana Trade

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Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported via a rival executive that the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana.  The Rhys Hoskins left field experiment went poorly this year, so it’s logical for GM Matt Klentak to attempt to trade the veteran Santana to allow Hoskins to move back to first base in 2019.

First, let’s take a look at what Santana is in this stage of his career.  He’s a switch-hitting walk machine with modest power.  He put up a 109 wRC+ for the Phillies this year, and 119 from May onward.  Steamer projects a 119 mark on the whole for Santana next year.  That’s a level he’s reached only once in the last four seasons, so it would be fair to question such optimism.

Though it’s an unscientific and more conservative guess, I’d expect 110-115.  Certainly if you’re a rival GM and Santana is being shopped to you, you’d take my position on his expected offense.  Santana has spent most of his time as a first baseman in recent years with the Phillies and Indians, and of course he’s an option at designated hitter as well.

Santana’s contract is a major factor in any potential trade.  He’s owed $35MM over the next two years.  Given Santana’s strong projection for next year, a case can be made that the Phillies shouldn’t need to pay his contract down significantly.  However, I think in reality there are enough cheaper alternatives on the market that the Phillies will have to kick in at least $10MM, or else take back a contract or attach a prospect.

For a look at the other first basemen available this winter, check out Jeff Todd’s market snapshot from last month.  The free agent market doesn’t offer any first baseman who qualifies as a definite regular, but the trade market could be robust.  Paul Goldschmidt is obviously superior to Santana, while Justin Smoak is a fairly similar hitter who is earning only $8MM in 2019.  Though better suited at DH, the Cardinals’ Jose Martinez is also in Santana’s class as a hitter.  Martinez has yet to reach arbitration and can be controlled for four more years.  I’m not convinced Jose Abreu and Brandon Belt will be on the move this winter.  The trade market at first base could also feature a variety of more flawed options, such as Justin Bour (now on waivers), Eric Thames, or Wil Myers.  The bottom line: the presence of Goldschmidt, Smoak, and perhaps Martinez could clog Santana’s market, as Goldy is an impact hitter and the others have more desirable contract situations.

There’s also the idea that a team with an established first baseman could acquire Santana to serve primarily as its designated hitter.  The DH trade market could include Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo, Shin-Soo Choo, C.J. Cron, Matt Davidson, and Miguel Cabrera.  As a hitter, only Cabrera is on Santana’s level, and he’s basically immovable due to his hefty contract.  The free agent market does offer one option that is superior to Santana as a DH: Nelson Cruz.  Cruz projects at a 132 wRC+ next year, and we expect him to sign for less than the $35MM owed to Santana.  So if you’re looking to fill a DH spot, you would talk to Cruz’s agent before you’d worry about trading for Santana – unless the Phillies offer to pay down Santana’s contract significantly.  You might also look at a player like Daniel Murphy, who carries a similar projection to Santana and should sign for less than $30MM.

If the Phillies are viewing Santana as mainly a contract dump, they might need to kick in $15MM to get him down to the equivalent of a two year, $20MM deal.  If the commitment was reduced that far, Santana might start to rise up on teams’ lists above someone like Murphy.  Here’s a look at the teams that could be a match for Santana this winter:

  • Twins: With Joe Mauer retiring and Logan Morrison reaching free agency, the Twins have an opening at first base and the need for a bat like Santana.  They also have room in the payroll for most of his contract.  It’s a reasonable match.
  • Astros: The Astros make a lot of sense for Santana.  He’s a better hitter than their incumbent first baseman, Yuli Gurriel, and they’re open at DH with Evan Gattis reaching free agency.  Still, it would be easier for the Astros or Twins to just sign Cruz, so the Phillies would have to make it worth their while.
  • Rays: Earlier this month, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote that the Rays “seek more of a feared overall hitter” than the arbitration eligible C.J. Cron.  The Rays also have more payroll space than they’ve had in recent years, making Santana a pretty good fit.  The Rays also have Jake Bauers at first base.  27-year-old Ji-Man Choi pitched in at DH this year and should have a job against right-handed pitching.  The Rays are a sleeper pick for Santana, though like the Astros and Twins they’d need to be convinced he’s a better option than Cruz.
  • Rockies: After giving the bulk of first base time to Ian Desmond this year and getting replacement level production, the Rockies could seek an upgrade.  GM Jeff Bridich spoke earlier this month of being “a little bit more focused on our offense this offseason as compared to last season,” and Santana could give a boost compared to Desmond or Ryan McMahon.  However, the team’s payroll appears fairly tight and they may also address deficiencies at catcher and in a corner outfield spot.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals deployed the aforementioned Jose Martinez as well as Matt Carpenter at first base this year.  Carpenter could move to third base to accommodate a first base acquisition like Santana.  However, replacing Martinez with Santana would upgrade the defense more than anything, since they are hitters of similar ability.  I could see the Cards taking a look at Santana, but not as their first choice.
  • White Sox: The Sox appear likely to stick with Jose Abreu at first base, and could run out a Daniel Palka-Matt Davidson DH platoon.  Palka is an option at an outfield corner, so the White Sox could feasibly add Santana as a primary DH who also chips in at first base.  They’ve got plenty of payroll space as well.
  • Angels: The presence of both Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols make the Angels an unlikely match for Santana.  Still, the Halos should have some at-bats available at first base and DH, as Ohtani and Pujols are hardly locks for 150 games apiece.  And theoretically, Santana could try to fake it at third base as he did in 119 innings for the Phillies this year.
  • Rangers: With Shin-Soo Choo locked in at DH, the Rangers could acquire Santana as a replacement for first baseman Ronald Guzman.  It might be too early to give up on the 24-year-old Guzman, and the Rangers have stronger needs on the pitching staff and at catcher.  Still, if they’re simply looking to get better next year in any way possible, replacing Guzman with Santana should at least be on the table.
  • Marlins: This is an outside the box option, since most of the focus with the Marlins is on which veteran pieces they’ll sell off as their rebuild continues.  The team does have a few internal options at first base for next year such as Peter O’Brien and Garrett Cooper.  Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said a month ago, “We’re going to look at internal candidates, and we’re going to look at external candidates.”  Why not Santana?  For one thing, a trade can work well for a rebuilding club seeking a veteran boost, since free agents are typically reluctant to sign unless such a team overbids.  Plus, the Marlins arguably have the payroll space to take on Santana’s entire contract, especially if they unload players like J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Derek Dietrich.  In taking on all $35MM, the Marlins could demand that the Phillies throw in a quality prospect.  It’s still a long shot scenario for the division-mates to match up on a Santana deal, however.
  • Orioles: The Orioles are stuck with Chris Davis through 2022, unless they’re willing to release him.  They’ve also got Trumbo under contract for one more year.  Adding Santana only makes sense in the same vein as the Marlins: take the entire contract, and get a quality veteran hitter plus a prospect.
  • Tigers: The Tigers could slot Miguel Cabrera in at DH and acquire Santana for first base.  They’ve got the payroll space for Santana, at least compared to historical spending.  But a bargain option makes more sense here unless the Phillies offer something enticing, putting the Tigers in the same group as fellow rebuilders like the Marlins and Orioles.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox have first baseman Mitch Moreland under contract for $6.5MM for 2019 and J.D. Martinez locked in at DH.  The most likely path is just bringing back Steve Pearce as Moreland’s right-handed hitting complement, but the Sox could theoretically acquire Santana and plug him in as the everyday first baseman.  Doing so would likely make the team better, though a first base switch doesn’t appear to be an offseason priority.  Plus, acquiring Santana would worsen Boston’s luxury tax penalty.
  • Yankees: The Yankees have Luke Voit and Greg Bird as first base options, and Giancarlo Stanton spending at least some of his time at DH.  There’s no real point to replacing Voit with Santana, and the Yankees have bigger needs, so this match appears unlikely.
  • Royals: The Royals don’t have anyone at first base or DH that would preclude an acquisition of Santana.  But with the team looking to cut payroll, trading for Santana hardly makes sense.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals will again look to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing season, but they’ll again do so with significant resources and reason for optimism.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Max Scherzer, SP: $105MM through 2021 (with assorted deferments)
  • Stephen Strasburg, SP: $135MM through 2023 (with assorted deferments; includes opt-outs after 2019, 2020)
  • Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: $20MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)
  • Adam Eaton, OF: $11.4MM through 2019 (includes buyouts of 2020, 2021 options)
  • Trevor Rosenthal, RP: $7MM (includes buyout of 2020 vesting option)
  • Howie Kendrick, UTIL: $4MM through 2019

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Sean Doolittle, RP: Exercised $6MM club option (deal includes $6.5MM club option for 2020, with $500K buyout)

Free Agents

[Washington Nationals Depth Chart | Washington Nationals Payroll Outlook]

Despite their overall sustained excellence, the Mike Rizzo-era Nationals have yet to end a season in a pleasing manner. Unlike the 2016 and 2017 clubs, which washed out of divisional series in thrilling fashion, the 2018 Nats ground to a halt in something of a slow-motion breakdown.

In years past, Nats disappointments — of all their varying flavors — have not really changed the organization’s trajectory. And for good reason: there have been seven consecutive winning seasons. Sure, it’s possible to interpret a few moves as direct responses to the developments of the season prior (Rafael Soriano, anyone?), but that’s only natural for any team.

Broadly, the march has continued, with Rizzo and co. rather notably managing to transition quite seamlessly from one high-end core to another. It seems foolish to expect anything but the same this winter, with the Nats once again poised to add finishing pieces to a quality existing roster, all while hoping that this time it’ll come together when it matters most.

It’s quite remarkable that this feels in large part like any other offseason for the Nationals. After all, one of the team’s true constants — superstar outfielder Bryce Harper — was due to disembark as the train limped into the station at season’s end. Yet his free agency came as a creeping inevitability — not just because it always seemed a fait accompli that he’d test the open market, but because the Washington organization improbably found a new version of Harper himself in the form of phenom Juan Soto, a 19-year-old, left-handed-hitting corner outfielder who somehow exceeded Harper’s own preternatural blend of pitch recognition, patience, and the ability to drive the ball all over the field.

It remains to be seen (and may never be fully known) whether Soto’s rise will play a significant role in Harper’s ultimate destination. The Nats, no doubt, have signaled they have serious interest in retaining Harper. They held onto him (at the trade deadline and in August) even while conceding more generally and then made a big offer late in the season. It’s obvious that the club did not expect that bid to lead to a deal, but it did set down a marker: the D.C. club will be a factor in Harper’s market, and any other clubs with interest will need to beat that not-insignificant $300MM starting point.

At the same time, the presence of Soto lessens the urgency to retain a player of Harper’s ilk. Every team would love to have that bat, but it’s possible the ultimate victor of the free-agent auction will be one that stands to gain more over its existing in-house alternatives. The Nats can plausibly line up an affordable, controllable, and potentially quite excellent outfield of Soto, Adam Eaton, and Victor Robles — with support from Michael Taylor, Howie Kendrick, and perhaps others — while wishing Harper the best and collecting some draft compensation on his way out the door.

Indeed, a departure is arguably the simpler outcome. Signing Harper would almost certainly require further movement. He and Soto would presumably be penciled in for nearly all of the plate appearances at two of the outfield spots. Robles and Eaton could share time, to be sure, but that’d be a questionable allocation of resources. The former needs to be playing every day at his stage of development, particularly after missing significant time due to injury in 2018. And the latter is too good a player (at least when at full health) to be left picking up playing time scraps.

Resolving that tension is possible, though it isn’t particularly straightforward. It’d be possible to make space with a trade, but parting with Robles would mean giving up a player who many believe is ready to be a core contributor. Selling Eaton, who still hasn’t shown he’s fully recovered from a series of leg injuries, would mean moving him at an inopportune moment. It’s theoretically possible that Harper or Soto could be considered a candidate to share time at first base with Ryan Zimmerman — if not even help replace him after the ’19 campaign — but that is a speculative and perhaps somewhat risky scenario. Were Robles to be made available in trade following a successful pursuit of Harper he’d almost certainly be the biggest prospect available this winter, perhaps giving the Nats the inside track to land another key piece. But it’s also fair to note that Robles is still eligible to be optioned, which isn’t an entirely unlikely scenario at all to open the season.

Whether or not Harper is retained is a massive question for the Nats. Somewhat incongruously, though, it doesn’t really change what the club’s key needs are so much as their means of addressing them. If Harper leaves, it seems much likelier that Robles stays; if Harper goes, then Robles is more expendable and the purse strings will surely be tighter.

In years past, the Nationals have proven willing both to send out prospects and plunk down cash to get their targets for the MLB roster. So — how much cash could the team spend? Some big salaries have come clear of the books, it’s true, but there are also raises to consider. With their current projected roster, the Nats are slated to have roughly $165MM on the books in 2019. That said, this year’s nominal balance sheet includes balloon payments for Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, when in actuality much of the money is owed on a deferred schedule. Moreover, the average annual values of those deals are significantly lower. In calculating the luxury tax — which smooths out any annual changes in long-term deals but does include other costs — the Nats are still something like $50MM shy of the $207MM threshold.

In other words, even if the organization decides to keep Roark, it could in theory add upwards of $50MM in 2019 salary while still remaining south of the tax barrier, a reputed goal of the organization. A forthcoming arbitration hearing regarding the seemingly never-ending MASN TV rights fees dispute could also have an impact, both by settling expectations for a major income source and potentially opening the door to some real cash flow in the relative near future. Really, it’s anyone’s guess just how much money the Lerner family will green-light to spend, but the means are likely there if the club feels it needs to inflate the payroll to add necessary pieces.

Regardless of what blend of assets — prospects and cold hard cash — is utilized, the organization will set out with a fairly obvious set of priorities. First and foremost, the Nats need to acquire a primary catcher and at least one quality starting pitcher. They’ll surely also look to boost their pitching depth while perhaps remaining open to acting opportunistically if a quality player can be had at a value. Finally, the organization will also no doubt consider the acquisition of a second baseman — even if it’s not a top priority — while exploring bench upgrades.

Rizzo has made clear his desire not just to get another piece behind the dish, but to make it a significant one. The position has been a black hole for the past two years, making an upgrade over the departing Matt Wieters a top priority. It’s already known that the Nats have tried for some time to pry J.T. Realmuto loose from the Marlins, but they haven’t been able to do so this point (despite reportedly dangling Robles). Perhaps the Pirates will show some willingness to discuss Francisco Cervelli, though that doesn’t seem particularly likely to result in a deal. Otherwise, the Nationals may need to go onto the open market to find a player worthy of regular action. Yasmani Grandal seems to be a good fit, with old friend Wilson Ramos also representing a possibility. If they succeed in adding one of those pieces, the Nats could go open the reserve job for competition among Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino, Raudy Read, and perhaps some minor-league veteran signee(s). If the organization can’t figure a way to a top-end catcher, it’d arguably be preferable to add two new players who could deliver good production in a timeshare.

There are quite a few more possibilities on the pitching market. With the steady Gio Gonzalez traded away and now a free agent, the Nats will likely push to land a hurler who’s capable of joining Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg at the top of the staff. Trade possibilities are somewhat murky, but it is certainly possible to imagine some matches — and it’s worth recalling that Rizzo has made use of this route for a fair number of quality complementary pieces in the past.

The Nats have had previous interest in Zack Greinke and might be willing to take over some salary, while seeing some appeal in the fact that his contract is only three years in length. Lefties James Paxton and Robbie Ray (the latter a Rizzo draftee) could be of interest. And there’s little doubt that the team would be in on the Indians’ excellent trio of tantalizing potential rotation trade pieces. (It’s fair to note, too, that Robles would be a perfect fit in Cleveland.) Free agency offers some possibilities, too. Patrick Corbin figures to be the top prize on the market, but there’s no reason the Nats wouldn’t at least check in. Fellow southpaw Dallas Keuchel is somewhat older, but that will also mean he likely won’t require so lengthy a commitment. That goes all the more for veteran J.A. Happ. Nathan Eovaldi, meanwhile, is going to draw a close look from all pitching-needy contenders.

Boosting the pitching depth beyond that will also be necessary, especially if the Nationals decide to move on from Roark. There has been no clear indication of that as of yet, but he has not been in top form and could either be traded (it’s possible a deal could involve another relatively expensive MLB asset coming back) or non-tendered so that his salary can be utilized in another manner. He’d otherwise round out a back-of-the-rotation mix that includes quite a lot of uncertainty. Joe Ross only just returned from Tommy John surgery while former first-rounder Erick Fedde has not yet established himself in the majors. Austin Voth, Jefry Rodriguez, and Kyle McGowin are also available for depth but hardly seem like clear options to take a rotation job out of camp. Last year, the Nats made a late move to add Jeremy Hellickson, then carefully avoided over-exposing him to opposing lineups. That worked out rather well and could be tried again with Hellickson or some other veteran hurler. Possibilities abound.

The bullpen has already been the recipient of two live new arms, as the Nationals dealt for Kyle Barraclough and inked an incentive-laden contract with Trevor Rosenthal. At their best, both are hard-to-hit flamethrowers who could combine to form a potent late-inning trio with excellent (albeit oft-injured) closer Sean Doolittle. A pessimist would add that both of these recently acquired hurlers also have trouble staying in the strike zone at times. Needless to say, neither is a sure thing.

Justin Miller, Koda Glover, and Wander Suero lead the remaining relief options from the right side, with the aforementioned back-of-the-rotation candidates also representing long relief candidates. There are several other righties on the 40-man, any of whom could conceivably make the Opening Day roster with a big spring — or be jettisoned beforehand if there’s a need for a 40-man spot. On the left side, Matt Grace is coming off of a strong season; Sammy Solis is not and is a non-tender candidate. If the Nats chase a higher-end reliever, it could make sense for it to be a lefty, though the team may also just wait and see whether an appealing opportunity presents itself. There certainly seems to be room for one or two more arms here, though it’s not a priority to the same extent as adding at catcher and in the rotation.

If there is another area to address, it’s at second base. The Nats say they’re happy to roll with a combination of Kendrick and Wilmer Difo, but that seems suboptimal and largely unnecessary given the glut of players available at the position in both trade and free agency. It’s at least theoretically possible the Nats could pursue Whit Merrifield of the Royals, who’s perhaps the most valuable potential trade target. Otherwise, there are a variety of veteran options. Roark and Taylor both represent MLB assets that could be moved to the right club in a deal for a second bagger (or, for that matter, a pitcher). It’s also plausible that the Nats could take on a bigger salary (e.g. Jason Kipnis, Dee Gordon) in a deal primarily targeted at acquiring a pitcher. Otherwise, free agents include Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Harrison, and old friends Asdrubal Cabrera and Daniel Murphy.

It’s possible the Nationals will look to add a regular at second. But the team could also prioritize a player who’d work in the mix there and elsewhere, with Kendrick spending time at second and in a corner outfield spot while Difo (or Adrian Sanchez or some outside acquisition) works as a true utility infielder. It’s interesting to consider whether the team could pursue a reunion with Murphy, who could also share time with Zimmerman at first. Switch-hitting Neil Walker is coming off of a rough season but could function in a similar capacity. Or poor-defending, sweet-swinging Marlins utilityman Derek Dietrich could make some sense. Otherwise, the club may again go searching for some big lefty pop to function in a bench role. Rizzo has employed numerous players of this ilk over the years, most recently Matt Adams. He’ll again be a possibility, with Justin Bour (recently waived by the Phillies), Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison also looking to be options. Whether a roster spot is again utilized on such a piece may depend upon the more important machinations covered above.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projecting Payrolls: Philadelphia Phillies

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I’m ecstatic to join the MLBTR team to offer insight on an essential topic in the baseball world, especially this time of year: team payrolls. We’ll be combing through the league this winter, focusing first on the teams that figure to be the biggest players in the free agent marketplace.

There’s no better place to start than Philadelphia.

Team Leadership

The Phillies have one of the more complicated ownership structures in the league. Current managing partner John Middleton first purchased an ownership stake in the team in 1994, acquiring additional interests in the club over time until finally reaching a plurality 48% interest, becoming manager partner in 2015. The Buck family owns the other plurality 48% interest via their Tri-Play group. Despite the fact that Middleton has been managing partner for only four years, his longtime involvement with the club as well as that of the Buck family provides solid continuity.

The front office is headed by longtime baseball man and team president, Andy MacPhail, the prior president of the Orioles and former general manager for the Cubs and Twins. Current general manager Matt Klentak enters his fourth season at the helm, still searching for his first winning season and Philadelphia’s first winning season since the 2011 club blitzed its way to 102 regular season victories. While Klentak appears to have strong support from ownership, the fourth year of a rebuild is traditionally moving time: if it’s going to work, the wins need to show up and in a big way.

Historical Payrolls

Before digging into Phillies specifics, here are a few general notes when looking at historical data:

  1. Generally speaking, we’ll be using the data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, maintained by Baseball Prospectus, for our historical data.
  2. Because the data comes from Cot’s and not from a meticulously detailed historical record of internal, proprietary information maintained by individual teams, the figures cited here will tend to be annual salaries plus prorated bonus amounts for each year. This is not how most Major League free agency contracts pay out: the various bonuses paid to players are often paid at specified times and not ratably over the course of deals. Nevertheless, using the data from Cot’s will help provide a strong estimate.
  3. Deferrals are difficult to capture. For example, the Nationals owe Max Scherzer a $35 million salary in 2019…but they won’t pay him a penny of his base salary for 2019 until 2022 (he does receive a $15 million portion of his signing bonus next year). Because of the difficulty in capturing deferrals, I’ll use something of an arbitrary cutoff, only factoring them into the numbers when they figure to have a significant impact on team spending, as is the case with the Nationals and Orioles, for example, given a bevy of deferred obligations, but as is likely not the case with the Rockies who owe only a relatively small amount to Todd Helton into the future.
  4. There are two primary considerations in examining historical payrolls: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dig in on what the Phillies have actually done in recent years.

Defining “recent” can be tricky. Changes in ownership, competitive windows, and market forces can yield wildly different payrolls over time. As a result, we’ll focus on a 15-year span in this series, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. Here is what the Phillies have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

The Phillies payroll history tells a compelling and clean history of the club over the past decade and a half. They emerged in the mid-2000s as a young team supplemented by some expensive veterans, got extraordinarily expensive at the end of the 2000s and beginning of the 2010s as the core reached its peak earning years, endured some bloated payrolls despite meager win totals as the 2010s went on, and kept payroll to a minimum as a rebuild began. The Phillies carried a top-six leaguewide payroll each year from 2009-14 before tumbling to be among the 10 lowest payrolls in each of the past three seasons, a truly remarkable swing.

Philadelphia has not been a franchise to push the boundaries in the amateur market either, eschewing the big-bonus deals given to the likes of Latino amateurs Yoan Moncada (Red Sox) and Yadier Alvarez (Dodgers), among many others, by other big-market ball clubs. As such, the Major League payroll is a strong indication of true spending capacity for the team.

Future Liabilities

Some teams are loaded up with future guaranteed money, significantly hampering their ability to commit significant dollars to free agent targets. We’ll address teams like the Cubs and Rockies later in this series.

Other teams find themselves with barren future guarantees. We’ll spend time discussing the Twins and White Sox later as well.

The Phillies find themselves largely in the middle space of teams with regard to future commitments. Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option whereas the peach indicates a club option. Note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus.

The future commitments are not exactly staggering. We’ll start at the bottom of the list. Kendrick’s $5 million in 2019 is the only deferral on Philadelphia’s chart, and it obviously shouldn’t impact future spending. Kingery’s extension basically guarantees him salaries commensurate with that of an above-average regular throughout what would have been his arbitration years with the 2024-26 options reflecting discounts over free agent salaries for a similarly effective player. If he turns out to be dead weight going forward (unlikely), the commitment remains relatively meager: $21.75 million through 2023, including the $1 million buyout of his 2024 option. That’s not breaking the bank and could provide strong value. Herrera is quite similar, just a few years further along the way; Herrera also figures to bounce back from poor BABIP luck in 2018, a year in which his defense also failed the metrics for the first time. Hunter and Neshek provide short-term guarantees with Neshek’s option in 2020 serving solely as a value play with minimal downside.

Instead, the big numbers to focus on here are Santana and Arrieta. Because Santana’s contract featured a significant signing bonus ($10 million), his future guarantee is both closer to approximating his actual value than it otherwise would be and easier to fit into a ballooning payroll, should that be the case. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that the Phillies are aggressively shopping Santana, hoping to move his salary while opening up a defensive home for young (and cheap) slugger Rhys Hoskins.

Arrieta, on the other hand, has a contract structure that functions as a real wild card thanks to its unique language and Arrieta’s recent production. Arrieta earned $30 million in 2018, he gets $25 million in 2019, and then the chaos begins. Arrieta may opt out of his contract following the 2019 season, forfeiting a $20 million guarantee in the process. However, the Phillies may preempt the opt-out clause by exercising their club option on a two-year, $40 million extension covering 2021-22, Arrieta’s age-35 and age-36 seasons. The club option years may increase to a total of $50 million based on Arrieta hitting an unknown innings pitched threshold over 2018-19*, but that number is likely to be quite high meaning that Arrieta’s 172 2/3 innings from 2018 likely foreclosed the possibility of hitting that escalator.

*=Editor’s Note: MLBTR has since learned that the escalators are based on games started as opposed to innings pitched. By starting 31 games in 2018, Arrieta has boosted the base salary in both club option seasons by $2.5MM apiece, making the combined value of those seasons $45MM. He’d boost each by $1MM with 28 starts in 2019, plus another $500K each for starts 29, 30 and 31.

The Arrieta decision appears fascinating for both player and club. Arrieta is projected for another season of being a roughly league-average starting pitcher who throws about 180 innings. If he performs at such a rate, he has a strong incentive to opt out of his contract as the market will likely yield something in the neighborhood of $40-50 million on a multi-year guarantee for that production. On the other hand, the Phillies have an incentive to keep him around for that production but it isn’t so strong as to risk buying Arrieta’s mid-30s at the rate of $60 million over three years. Unless Arrieta erupts for another Cy Young-caliber season or melts down due to injury or ineffectiveness in 2019, the parties appear headed for a November 2019 staredown regarding their respective decisions.

Nevertheless, among the names listed above, the Phillies won’t be hamstrung due to their future guarantees.

Moving to arbitration, the Phillies feature some significant likely expenditures, particularly as ace Aaron Nola and slugging third baseman Maikel Franco age through raises. Franco may represent a tough non-tender decision in future years if he continues to struggle getting on base, but for now, he has age, power, and pedigree on his side, justifying his $5.1 million figure.

It is overwhelmingly likely that Bour is non-tendered or traded given the presence of Santana and Hoskins. Altherr and Garcia could also be non-tendered, though taking them out of the salary table results in relatively little change to spending from a team-wide perspective.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

This will likely come as little surprise: despite clamoring for continued financial flexibility into the future, Klentak admitted that the Phillies have the wherewithal to make a significant addition to payroll in 2019. Addressing the media at the general manager meetings in early November, Klentak stated, “It’s a pretty bad feeling to go into an offseason knowing that you have things you need to address and not having the financial resources to do it because your money is tied up in players. I don’t think we ever want to put ourselves in that position. But some players are going to demand more than three-year contracts, and we have to be open to that. If it makes sense, we can do it. This is a franchise that carried big payrolls for a long, long time. We will likely get back to that again.”

Middleton provided a similar directive from ownership last offseason, offering that, , “[y]eah, I think we’re close. They [the front office] came to us with a budget, and we said, ’Guys, if you want to put that number in for the budget, that’s fine, but don’t live with that. If something comes up, and it breaks the bank relative to the budget, and you don’t pursue it, we’re going to be upset.’ And they know that.” In an era where ownership frequently addresses the need to cut costs and operate efficiently, such an admission from Middleton is startling, even if it occurred nearly a year ago.

There is one final consideration that requires mention here: attendance. The Phillies regularly sported attendance figures just shy of two millions visitors each year until they opened Citizens Bank Park in 2004. Attendance figures ballooned to 3.25 million that year, dipping to about 2.7 million in each of 2005 and 2006 before climbing over the three million threshold again in 2007 and staying there through 2013, peaking at 3.777 million in 2010. From 2014 onward, however, attendance has tumbled back to the 1.8 million to 2.4 million territory.

Are the Phillies a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

For some teams, this will be a really interesting examination. For the Phillies, it isn’t: they’re definitely players for Harper and Machado, and from a purely financial perspective, it’s within the realm of possibility that they could be contenders to sign both young stars. That said, there has been no indication to date that ownership or management is mulling such an unprecedented dual pursuit of both talents.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

It’s worth providing what is likely an obvious disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

Nevertheless, there are numerous reasons to expect the Phillies to spend and to spend big this winter. Between Nola, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Arrieta, the Phillies already have a cheap, controllable playoff rotation in-house before considering possible contributions from bounce-back candidate Jerad Eickhoff and the late-season prospect arrivals of the much-hyped Sixto Sanchez and Adonis Medina.

The position player talent, however, is another story. Philadelphia’s team-wide wRC+ of 91 last year ranked 21st in baseball, narrowly ahead of the lowly Rangers and Royals. For a team looking to make the jump to postseason contention, the Phillies are in desperate need of an offensive jolt and it isn’t coming from the farm unless 2017 top pick outfielder Adam Haseley finds a way to bring his plus on-base skills up from Double-A despite a low-power profile.

Taken in the aggregate, the above shows that the Phillies:

  1. have a significant need for an impact bat or two,
  2. can afford to stick that bat (or bats) at just about any defensive position outside of first base,
  3. have traditionally carried significantly weightier payrolls than they have in recent years,
  4. possess an ownership group and front office ready to take the plunge into big-spending territory,
  5. feature a roster loaded with young talent that is traditionally supplemented by veteran talent for winners, and
  6. have a front office that needs to win now to stick around.

Add it all up and the Phillies are going to spend and spend big. Whether through free agency or the absorption of significant liabilities on the trade market, payroll is going to climb in a meaningful way. It’s unlikely that payroll reaches the heights of the earlier part of this decade ($170 million plus) in one year as that type of one-year spending jump is a rarity, but I expect that Philadelphia will get close. The projections below assume that Bour is non-tendered/traded and that Franco is shipped out should the Phillies add Machado to take his job. Things could get significantly more interesting if the Phillies succeed in their quest to ship out Santana and perhaps Hernandez, utilizing Kingery and J.P. Crawford up the middle. The available space could grow in a big way if Klentak chooses to go that route. The below assumes that both Santana and Hernandez stay.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $155-165 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $52.25 million to $62.25 million

2018 Non-Tender Candidates

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More than 200 players are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason, and the deadline to tender each of these players a contract for the 2019 season is November 30th. That also represents the deadline to inform arbitration eligible players whether they will receive a (non-guaranteed) contract, or else become free agents. The two parties will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings (if necessary) kick off in February.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least atr ar 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.

It should be noted that many of the borderline non-tender candidates below will be traded this month rather than simply cut loose. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projections and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.

For a full list of each team’s arb-eligible players, you can check out Matt Swartz’s team-by-team arbitration salary projections.

Position Players

Ehire Adrianza (Twins, $1.8MM)
Aaron Altherr (Phillies, $1.6MM)
Tim Beckham (Orioles, $4.3MM)
Justin Bour (Phillies, $5.2MM)
Cheslor Cuthbert (Royals, $1.1MM)
Travis d’Arnaud (Mets, $3.7MM)
Delino DeShields Jr. (Rangers, $1.9MM)
Adam Duvall (Braves, $3.1MM)
Wilmer Flores (Mets, $4.7MM)
Avisail Garcia (White Sox, $8.0MM)
Leury Garcia (White Sox, $1.9MM)
Greg Garcia (Padres, $900K)
Robbie Grossman (Twins, $4.0MM)
Gorkys Hernandez (Giants, $1.6MM)
Chris Herrmann (Astros, $1.5MM)
Caleb Joseph (Orioles, $1.7MM)
Erik Kratz (Brewers, $1.7MM)
Sandy Leon (Red Sox, $2.3MM)
Jake Marisnick (Astros, $2.4MM)
James McCann (Tigers, $3.5MM)
John Ryan Murphy (Diamondbacks, $1.1MM)
Chris Owings (Diamondbacks, $3.6MM)
Hernan Perez (Brewers, $2.7MM)
Josh Phegley (Athletics, $1.2MM)
Miguel Rojas (Marlins, $2.6MM)
Addison Russell (Cubs, $4.3MM)
Tyler Saladino (Brewers, $1.0MM)
Jonathan Schoop (Brewers, $10.1MM)
Yangervis Solarte (Blue Jays, $5.9MM)
Cory Spangenberg (Padres, $2.3MM)
Devon Travis (Blue Jays, $2.4MM)
Tony Wolters (Rockies, $1.1MM)

Pitchers

Matt Andriese (Diamondbacks, $1.1MM)
Chad Bettis (Rockies, $3.2M)
Eddie Butler (Rangers, $900K)
Brian Flynn (Royals, $1.0MM)
Sam Freeman (Braves, $1.5M)
Luis Garcia (Phillies, $1.7MM)
Yimi Garcia (Dodgers, $900K)
Jesse Hahn (Royals, $1.7MM)
Tom Koehler (Dodgers, $2.0MM)
Shelby Miller (Diamondbacks, $4.9MM)
Bryan Mitchell (Padres, $1.2MM)
Neil Ramirez (Indians, $1.3MM)
Tanner Roark (Nationals, $9.8MM)
Zac Rosscup (Dodgers, $800K)
Chris Rusin (Rockies, $1.7MM)
Chasen Shreve (Cardinals, $1.2MM)
Sammy Solis (Nationals, $900K)
Tyler Thornburg (Red Sox, $2.3MM)
Jonny Venters (Braves, $1.5M)

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Bucs’ bid to compete in 2018 fell flat, but the team’s mid-season acquisitions were also designed to keep the window open for the two ensuing seasons. As ever, building out the roster will likely mean a search for cost-efficiency for the Pittsburgh front office.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart | Pittsburgh Pirates Payroll Outlook]

It’s easy to overlook the Pirates, particularly given the developments elsewhere in the National League Central. The Brewers proved a shocking rival to the Cubs, who still have designs on the top spot. Meanwhile, the Cardinals still have plenty of talent and ample motivation. And the Reds see themselves as prepared to begin climbing the ladder.

It could all end up being quite the rumble, particularly if Pirates GM Neal Huntington proves able to sniff out some buried treasure on the player market this winter. There’s no reason to think he’ll have substantially more payroll capacity to work with than in past seasons, after all, though it’s possible there’ll be some leftover coin to spread around. With all their arb-eligible players included, the Pirates have around $65MM in salary committed to ten players. That only leaves about $20MM of daylight, as against last year’s ~$86MM Opening Day payroll, and of course the club will also need to account for salaries to league-minimum members of the roster. That said, the organization has pushed right up to (but not yet past) the $100MM line in Opening Day payroll in the not-so-distant past, which could suggest there’s a bit more wiggle room to work with.

Supposing the Pirates do see a way to fit some more salaries into the budget, it’s still questionable whether they’ll show much interest in the kind of lengthy commitments that are generally required to land the top-available free-agent talent. The Pirates have focused instead on aggressively pursuing contract extensions with existing young players while pursuing quality veterans on more limited pacts that don’t go past three seasons in duration. (Don’t believe me? Check out this list of Pittsburgh free agent deals of at least three guaranteed years.)

Dipping into the prospect pool to facilitate a trade remains a possibility. Top prospect Mitch Keller is one of the best-regarded pre-MLB hurlers in baseball, and there are enough quality chips surrounding him to enable the club to make a run at about just about any trade target it might like. There’s quite a lot of infield talent, in particular, much of which is at or near the MLB level. Of course, it’s arguable that the 2018 deadline moves reduce the appeal of further sacrificing farm assets. And those infielders, especially, figure to come in handy right now.

There’s a line change underway at the 4-5-6 positions on the diamond. Veterans Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, and Adeiny Hechavarria are no longer on the roster, leaving plenty of playing time up for grabs. Bringing back Kang indicates that the Pirates feel he’s likely to bounce back, at least to some extent. He figures to represent a right-handed-hitting complement to Colin Moran at third and perhaps also Adam Frazier at second. Meanwhile, the club recently graduated well-regarded middle infielders Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer, though each struggled at the plate in limited MLB action. With Pablo Reyes and Max Moroff representing other youthful options who have reached the majors, and intriguing prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes and Cole Tucker steadily marching north (both spent all of 2018 at Double-A, at third base and shortstop respectively), there’s an abundance of possibility.

It’s possible in theory that the Pirates will simply roll with that group of talent into Spring Training, then see how the chips fall. But they may also choose to pursue a veteran piece to supplement the mix. In particular, adding a trustworthy player capable of handling shortstop would seem to make good sense. Beyond Mercer and Hechavarria, open-market options include Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis. The Pirates could also hang back and see if any intriguing value propositions present themselves.

To an extent, of course, the infield situation blends into that in the outfield. That’s due in no small part to the clear organizational preference for having a few players on the roster who can transition from dirt to grass. Frazier has done so quite a bit, as has Reyes in the minors, and Jose Osuna is a corner option in either area. Josh Bell will presumably continue to hold down the first base position, while Starling Marte is entrenched as the everyday man in center, so the real focus is on the corner outfield.

Corey Dickerson turned in a quality campaign and seems likely to see most of the action in left field. He’s most productive against right-handed pitching, though he was certainly plenty playable against lefties last year. The same can be said of Gregory Polanco, who was polishing off a breakout campaign before he was felled by an unfortunate injury. It’s possible he’ll recover steadily and be at full health for much of the 2019 campaign. But given the significance of the surgery he required and the uncertainty of his rehab timeline, it’s impossible to assume that’ll be the case.

The optimal solution, it seems, would be to find a quality right-handed-hitting outfielder who can cover for Polanco and then integrate with the lefty corner pieces once the club is at full health. It’s certainly possible the Bucs would like such a player also to feature as an infield option. Steve Pearce could in theory be a match, though at this stage of his career he’s a better fit for a team that can offer him ABs at first base and DH. There’s an argument to be made that a short-term veteran — Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, or even old friend Jose Bautista are among the open-market options — would be the most sensible addition. Avisail Garcia of the White Sox could be a target as well, though perhaps it’s likelier he’d be pursued on a cheaper deal if non-tendered.

Most intriguingly, though, is the idea that the Pirates should consider a piece that would be around for years to come, helping to cover for the impending departure of Dickerson via free agency and bridge to players being developed. Tempting though it may be to draw a line back to former franchise cornerstone Andrew McCutchen, the best righty-hitting corner outfielder available, that feels unlikely. There are quite a few more possibilities via trade. Controllable players such as Steven Souza, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Michael Taylor, Aaron Altherr, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot, Albert Almora, and Kevin Pillar could conceivably be made available. Whether any would truly pique the interest of the Pirates, or come at a palatable price, remains to be seen. Osuna and Jordan Luplow each share some characteristics with the aforementioned players and are pre-arb options already on hand. Of course, neither has hit much in early MLB chances. It’s possible that the right acquisition could check several boxes in one fell swoop.

That brings us to the battery, where two of the team’s most interesting possible trade chips lie. As with Dickerson, the Bucs owe significant but manageable sums to catcher Francisco Cervelli and starter Ivan Nova. Each of these players would draw outside interest and could certainly be shopped around. With the team’s buy-side 2018 trade deadline moves, it’d be surprising to see an important veteran shipped out for a pure prospect haul (at least, without corresponding additions). But perhaps there could be an opportunity to move an established, short-term asset in a way that doesn’t hurt too much in the near term, clears some payroll space, and improves the long-term outlook.

Doing so with Dickerson or (especially) Cervelli, though, would mean opening holes that can’t easily be filled. Of that trio, Nova seems the likeliest to move. Of course, he’s also not a particularly exciting hurler so much as he is a steadily valuable back-of-the-rotation presence. Nova has not sustained the breakout he showed upon moving to the Pirates in the middle of the 2016 season, but has given the organization sixty starts of low-4 ERA ball over the past two campaigns. He’d help shore up quite a few rotations around the game if the Pirates decide to move him, but he also continues to fit on a Pittsburgh staff that will go without Tommy John patient Chad Kuhl for the 2019 season.

It’s arguable, really, that the Pirates are best suited simply holding pat in all respects with regard to the rotation. Picking up Chris Archer in late July hasn’t yet paid dividends, but the hope remains that he’ll find his form and represent a tremendous bargain at the top of the staff alongside excellent youngster Jameson Taillon. If he can sustain his eye-opening 2018 effort, Trevor Williams would round out a strong top trio of starters. The hope is that Joe Musgrove will recover from a recent procedure and be ready to contribute more solid frames alongside Nova in 2019. Out-of-options right-hander Nick Kingham could yet emerge as a rotation piece despite a poor debut showing, while southpaw Steven Brault is a depth piece who can also contribute from the pen. The 40-man roster also currently features a pair of righties in Clay Holmes and Alex McRae who’ll present possibilities. There’s probably room for some tweaking here if desired — if, say, the club prefers a cheaper free-agent veteran and finds a taker for Nova, or sees an opportunity to buy or sell high on an unexpected hurler — but “need” doesn’t appear to be a driving force.

That’s largely also the case in the relief unit, though there’s probably more room to add here. Leftover rotation candidates can round out a group that is led by closer Felipe Vazquez and setup man Keone Kela (who was acquired, like Archer, in July of 2018). Otherwise, losing Edgar Santana to a TJ procedure hurts, but emergent hurlers Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick both look to be strong assets. Michael Feliz and Nick Burdi each reputedly possess eye-popping stuff but haven’t yet established themselves in the majors. It’s possible to imagine the pen being made up of internal options, but an addition or two would also make sense. In particular, the club could have its eye on a quality lefty option. Brault could work as a lefty specialist, as he was much more successful against opposing southpaws, but the team certainly could wade into free agency as well. Top options such as Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are likely out of reach, but there are loads of other candidates on this winter’s market.

The broad takeaway from the foregoing analysis seems to be that the Pirates may have greater flexibility than is popularly supposed. From a financial perspective, even $20MM of availability could go a long way. That’s especially so given the significant versatility on the existing roster, which will allow the team to target specific players and/or chase value, adapting as it goes. The unwelcome uncertainty surrounding Polanco certainly puts a damper on things, and it’s undeniably a tough division to tackle, but the Pirates have every chance of fielding a highly competitive club in 2019 — if they make smart choices this winter and have a few things break for them in the season to come.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

After celebrating their fourth World Series in 15 years, the Red Sox now have some significant holes to fill in the starting rotation and bullpen. They’ll also need to think about whether and how to keep their championship core together for the long term.

Guaranteed Contracts

Obligations To Former Players

  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $23MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout of 2020 club option), minus prorated MLB minimum salary earned by Sandoval next season

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Boston Red Sox offseason page][Boston Red Sox payroll information]

The Red Sox won 108 regular season games and then lost just three postseason contests en route to the Commissioner’s Trophy. The good news doesn’t end there for Boston fans, as the window is still wide open for another title.  Potential AL MVP Mookie Betts and Hank Aaron Award-winning slugger J.D. Martinez are the cornerstones of a dynamic lineup that will also have Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. as Opening Day locks.  Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello sit atop the rotation, with bullpen workhorses Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Ryan Brasier, and Hector Velazquez all returning.

That’s an awfully strong nucleus to start from, particularly for a team that can still account for less-stable positions with players already on the roster, and isn’t shy about making big trades or signings if external help is required.  The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season and are projected to be well over the line again in 2019, though they’ll get some help in that area by the fact that the luxury tax limit will rise from $197MM to $206MM.  Hanley Ramirez’s salary is also now completely off the books; the $22MM he had earned annually will be needed to cover projected arbitration raises.

So, what will president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski do for an encore?  His most immediate question is the bullpen, as closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly are both headed for free agency.  The hard-throwing Kelly has had his ups and downs in Boston, with a 4.33 ERA over 359 1/3 innings for the team and persistent control issues.  When Kelly was on, however, he was hard to touch — over 11 1/3 IP during Boston’s World Series run, the right-hander allowed just one earned run while recording 13 strikeouts and no walks. It’s easy to see how a rival team could take a chance on Kelly as a closer or top setup option, and offer him a contract beyond what the Sox are willing to pay.  Then again, there’s still a fit on paper in Boston, so it’s possible he’ll return.

Meanwhile, Boston may only have limited interest in bringing Kimbrel back.After Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen raised the bar on contracts for top closers, it could be that the Red Sox simply aren’t keen on spending the big money it will likely take to retain Kimbrel (MLBTR projects him for a four-year, $70MM contract).  The Red Sox also stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer if Kimbrel signs elsewhere.  Kimbral had another strong regular season — 2.74 ERA, 3.10 K/BB rate, 13.9 K/9 over 62 1/3 innings — yet didn’t quite hit elite levels, and he struggled mightily throughout the postseason.

If Kimbrel does leave, the Sox don’t have an obvious in-house saves candidate ready to step up to the unique pressure of Fenway Park in the ninth inning.  Free agents like David Robertson, Zach Britton, or Andrew Miller could all be targets, or Boston could pursue trade options.  This is assuming, of course, that the Red Sox will take a traditional approach to the closer role, as the club could prefer to add a versatile multi-inning arm (like a Miller) or two and then give manager Alex Cora a chance to mix and match his late-game options based on matchups.

Beyond the top three in the rotation, the combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, swingman Velazquez, and (health permitting) Steven Wright should be capable of accounting for at least one of the other rotation spots.  This depth also comes in handy should Sale again run into any health issues, as Boston put a priority on keeping their ace as fit as possible for October.  The Red Sox will likely add to this mix with at least one more starting arm.  The team has the resources to check in on any of the top pitchers available on the free agent or trade markets, with a pursuit of Nathan Eovaldi standing out as a logical option.  Eovaldi will still just be 29 on Opening Day, and looked as good during his two-plus months with the Red Sox as he has at any point in his career, both results-wise and in terms of his 97.2mph average fastball speed.

If not Eovaldi, Boston could look at other pitchers that could be longer-term answers for the rotation since both Sale and Porcello are entering the last year of their contracts.  As good as the present looks for the Red Sox, Dombrowski will have to turn an eye to the future this offseason as several important players are approaching free agency.  Sale, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all only controlled through 2019; Betts and Bradley will reach the open market after 2020; and Martinez can opt out of his contract after any of the next three seasons.

There have already been indications that Bogaerts and Martinez will test free agency, though the team will likely at least consider broaching extension talks with all of these parties.  It will be interesting to see which players the Red Sox prioritize in negotiations, as it will provide significant information about their approach for the future.  Bogaerts, Martinez, and Bradley are all represented by Scott Boras, whose clients tend to reach the open market rather than sign extensions.  Sale has been nothing short of outstanding during his nine-year career, though with his lingering injury concerns, are the Red Sox prepared to make an expensive commitment to the southpaw as he enters his 30s?  Could Boston also look to a different type of extension, and lock up a controllable player like Benintendi (scheduled for free agency after 2022) to a even longer-term deal?

Betts has preferred to take a year-to-year approach rather than sign an extension, a gamble that has thus far handsomely paid off for the superstar outfielder.  Could his stance change if the Red Sox were to approach him with one of the biggest contracts in baseball history?  The argument can certainly be made that Betts is deserving of such a pact based on what he has done through his age-25 season, and the Sox could get some obvious contact comps this winter in whatever record-breaking deals Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (both of whom are 26 themselves) find in the free agent market this winter.

The Sox are set in the outfield, DH, and shortstop, and we can pretty safely pencil Rafael Devers at third base and Mitch Moreland for a timeshare at first base next season.  Despite below-average overall hitting numbers and a shaky glove in 2018, Devers is still only 22, and the former top prospect will certainly be given plenty of opportunity to break out.  Moreland will continue to provide his solid defense and bat from the left side of the plate, though the Sox will need to find another right-handed first base as a platoon partner.

World Series MVP Steve Pearce filled that role in spectacular fashion after coming to Boston in midseason, and while his price tag may go up, the free agent market has been unfriendly enough to veteran first basemen in recent years that a re-signing is certainly feasible from Boston’s end.  For Pearce, he may also welcome another crack at a ring rather than aim for a few extra dollars in free agency.

Could the Red Sox make a bigger splash at first base?  That’s what we thought could be in store last winter before the team re-signed Moreland to a two-year contract, so Boston seems content for now to just stick with a platoon situation rather than deal Moreland and then pursue a bigger name in free agency or on the trade market.  There’s also the possibility that the Sox might not want to block the position in the event that Devers needs to be moved to first base, as star prospect Michael Chavis is knocking on the door as a potential third baseman of the future.  (Chavis himself has also seen some time at first base, plus young first baseman Sam Travis is still in the picture, albeit in need of a rebound from a lackluster Triple-A season.) All that said, there are some intriguing potential options and a move can’t be ruled out.

Catcher is another position where the team could theoretically stand pat with in-house options, as the duo of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon each posted outstanding framing numbers and were widely praised for their game-calling abilities.  The Sox have enough big bats in the lineup that they could afford to devote one position entirely to defense, yet the near-total lack of offense generated by both Vazquez (42 wRC+) and Leon (33 wRC+) begs to be addressed in some fashion.  Blake Swihart also contributed little at the plate while seeing some action at catcher as part of his super-utility duties.

The boldest move would be a trade for J.T. Realmuto, who will be targeted by every team in need of catching upgrades this winter.  Vazquez or Swihart could go back to the Marlins as part of a trade package, though obviously Boston would need much more to pry Realmuto out of Miami.  If the Red Sox aren’t willing or able to meet the Marlins’ price, they could aim lower by signing a free agent backstop like Kurt Suzuki or Robinson Chirinos or by taking over part of the contract of a pricey veteran such as Russell Martin.  This would allow Vazquez to stay in the mix. The Sox have committed to him to some extent as their catcher of the future via their three-year contract extension, and Vazquez did post decent hitting numbers just in 2017.  It remains to be seen exactly what the Sox will do with Swihart, who was kept despite a flurry of trade rumors last season, and whose stock has dropped even further after a forgettable 2018 season.

The experiment with Swihart as a utilityman led him to appear as one of the nine Red Sox players who played at least one game at second base last season, as the position became a revolving door thanks to Dustin Pedroia’s recurring knee problems.  The longtime face of the Boston franchise was limited to just three games last season, leading the Sox to rotate several players through the keystone before Ian Kinsler was acquired at the deadline to solidify the position, though Kinsler didn’t play particularly well.

It’s an open question as to how much Pedroia will be able to contribute next season, especially since Dombrowski isn’t yet certain if the veteran infielder will be ready for Spring Training.  Given Pedroia’s status within the organization (and the $40MM still owed to him through 2021), the Sox may have to hold off on any moves to address second base until they get more clarity on Pedroia’s health.  If Pedroia isn’t an option, another in-season trade is likely, unless incumbent options Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, or maybe even longer-shot candidates like Chavis or even Swihart can all combine to handle the position.

A reasonably healthy and productive Pedroia, a step forward from Devers, and Vazquez returning to even his 2017 form would go a long way towards firming up three positions that were rather glaringly weak links last season.  Even while receiving sub-replacement level production at second base, third base, and catcher all season, the 2018 Red Sox were still one of the best teams in recent baseball history.  It’s a tribute to Cora’s work in the dugout and Dombrowski’s roster-building that Boston achieved what it did even with some notable flaws, and with another winter to address these areas and others, the possibility exists that next year’s Red Sox could be even better.

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