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MLBTR Originals

Zack Collins (University of Miami) Interview: Draft Prospect Q&A

By Chuck Wasserstrom | May 17, 2016 at 4:03pm CDT

MLBTR continues its Draft Prospect Q&A series in order to give our readers a look at some of the top names on the board in this year’s draft. MLBTR will be chatting with some of the draft’s most well-regarded prospects as they prepare for the 2016 draft on June 9-11; we’ve already spoken with Florida outfielder Buddy Reed, prep outfielder Blake Rutherford, Mercer’s Kyle Lewis, Oklahoma’s Alec Hansen and Louisville’s Corey Ray.

University of Miami catcher Zack Collins has been down this path before. Three years ago, he was projected to be selected as high as the second round of the MLB draft – but he wasn’t picked until the 27th round due to signability questions. This time around, he figures to hear his name around the middle of the first round.

The 6’3”, 230-pound Collins is a left-handed power hitter with a very patient approach at the plate. Heading into the final week of regular-season play, he ranks among the Division I national leaders in walks (59) and on-base percentage (.560) as part of his .387/.560/.655 slash line.

Last week, Baseball America listed him No. 16 on its Top 100 Draft Prospects chart, and he’s currently 20th on the Top 100 at MLB.com. ESPN.com’s Keith Law recently wrote, “I’ve heard he’s in the mix for at least two teams in the Top 10, including Oakland.”

Collins talked with MLBTR earlier this week:

Chuck Wasserstrom: Hi Zack. Thanks for talking to me today. I want to start out with a couple draft-related questions. Coming out of high school, you could have been a high-round pick, but you weren’t because of signability – and the Cincinnati Reds selected you in the 27th round. Was there any scenario where you would have turned pro instead of going to college?

Zack Collins: “It was a number thing. My family and I set a number, and it wasn’t matched. So I had no problem going to college. It was my dream school, and I think I made the right decision.”

It still must be pretty cool to be 18 years old and know that Cincinnati just drafted you. Was it tough to say, “Thanks – but no thanks?”

“At that point, it was the 27th round – and they were offering nowhere near the number that I set. I was really excited and honored to be drafted by them – and to just be drafted at all – but it honestly wasn’t very tough to say ‘No.’ ”

You grew up less than 30 minutes from the University of Miami campus. Really, how tough of a recruiting process was it for them to lure you there?

“I always wanted to go there. I don’t think there was any other school that I had in mind. I don’t know. I went to all the camps and they liked me. One of the first offers they made to me … I said ‘Yes.’ It was pretty easy.”

There have been some pretty big-time bats that have gone through that program – like Pat Burrell, Ryan Braun and Yonder Alonso. How does it feel to have your name mentioned in the same sentence as them?

“It’s honoring, but it’s kind of tough to put my name in with them. They’ve done a lot more than I have so far. But, honestly, it feels great to be mentioned in those categories. Hopefully, I can keep it up just like them.”

[Interview continued after the page break]

Read more

Tell me about your whole college experience. How you have evolved as a player and as a person?

“The college experience has been great. Just hanging around with all the guys all the time – and being in that locker room. It’s been great. I think I’ve matured a lot. Looking back at the high school days, I don’t know if I was ready for the pros yet. I think it’s a good thing that I went to college. I’ve just matured and got a lot better at baseball, and got three years in college.”

Zack Collins

I like to ask people for their own assessments. In your own words, what would you say is the scouting report on Zack Collins?

“I think I’m just a guy who goes out there and works hard every day to be as good as I can. I’m a team player; I’ll do whatever helps out the team. Obviously, I’m an offensive catcher, but I’m working on my defense a lot lately. I think I’ve gotten a lot better defensively, and I’m just trying to prove to guys I can catch at the next level.”

You’re human. You’ve heard the scouting reports. First round bat, don’t know where he’ll play defensively. What can you do to dispel that?

“I think I’m actually doing that this year. I’ve worked a lot on my blocking and receiving and throwing and footwork – all that kind of stuff. We actually have a new catching coach down here in Miami (Norberto Lopez), and he’s helped me a ton. I think I’ve answered that question this year.”

I like hearing that. You sound very confident about your defense. And everyone knows about your power numbers. But you’re very patient as a batter; you’re among the Division I leaders in walks and on-base percentage. What does that mean to you?

“It means a lot. I’m just trying to be a team player. I’m not going to go up there and try to hit a home run every time. Sometimes, it gets a little bit frustrating to walk three or four times in a game, but I’ll take it if that’s going to help the team win. I’ll take my walks and go on to the next game.”

There are stories that I recently read about your parents signing you up to play in an organized T-ball league when you were three years old. It sounds like baseball has always been in your blood. Has baseball always been your No. 1 sport?

“No, I’ve always played baseball. Baseball has been the main sport. My dad grew up as a football player and he tried me out in football a couple times, and I think he wanted me to play football, but I don’t think that was the sport for me. He’s the type that is just … whatever you’re going to play, just be as good as you can at it – and that was baseball.”

What is your fondest memory of growing up “all things baseball?”

“I’d have to say it’s probably winning a Gold Medal (Collins was a member of the USA Baseball 16U National Team in 2011) or a national championship in summer ball. I think winning the Gold Medal was the best. You’re playing for your country, and we beat Cuba in the Gold Medal game in Mexico.”

Other than USA Baseball, how many summer league programs have you played for?

“I grew up in summer ball probably with one team – it was an elite squad throughout my high school career. I’ve always played with the same kids growing up. A lot of them have moved on to big colleges or even the pros. I haven’t played with many teams; it’s been the elite squad, Team USA, and recently in the Cape.”

Since you’re playing all the time, do you get much of a chance to sit down and watch Major League Baseball?

“Not lately. We’ve been playing so much, and I’ve been working out so much, that you don’t really have the time. I see a lot of highlights and I like to watch certain players, but not really.”

When you need to get away from baseball, what do you like to do? What are your hobbies?

“I like to have fun with my dad. We actually do a lot of cool stuff together. We collect remote-control planes. A lot of people don’t know about it. Those are pretty fun to see those things fly. We’re into a bunch of stuff.”

I just read a story about you last night – that you have remote-control planes and cars and trucks.

“I used to be into jet skis and four-wheelers and all that kind of stuff. But once baseball got serious and I knew I had a chance to move on to the next level and make it a career, I got away from that stuff and stayed off the machines – and held the remote control in my hand and not get hurt.”

And you said that’s a “Dad and Me” sort of thing, right?

“Yeah, for sure. He’s pretty much my best friend. We spend a lot of time together.”

I also saw in that same story that you like to watch Nickelodeon.

“Yeah (laughter). My roommate for three years has been Willie Abreu. He likes Nickelodeon, and we’re both kids at heart. We don’t watch the little kid stuff, but we watch SpongeBob.”

I didn’t know if it was cartoons or Nick at Nite. I figured it wouldn’t hurt to ask.

“You know, we like Friends and all that kind of stuff.”

You seem comfortable doing interviews. How much of this stuff is exciting and how much is really a distraction?

“It’s not a distraction. It’s very exciting. Honestly, it’s humbling to talk to all these different people and have them want to talk to me. It’s just great knowing how many relationships you can build through the game. Just going through the process has been fun.”

I know Miami has been playing very well. Have you allowed yourself to think about what you’re going to do on the day of the draft?

“No. I’m trying to think about our next game. Every game is a big game for us right now. I’m trying to get my first (championship) there. Just taking it day-by-day.”

I’m not asking you to compare yourself to him, because you’re your own person, but it sounds like you’ve heard a lot of the same things people were saying about Kyle Schwarber. Big-time left-handed power – but he’ll have to move out from behind the plate. When I say that, do you want to hear that?

“It’s always good to be compared to a guy like that. Obviously, I love catching. I’ve worked on it for a long time now. But again, just like he did, whatever the team needs for me to do – or whatever the team thinks I would be best at – is what I’m going to do.”

To wrap this up, I do want to ask about the high school you graduated from – American Heritage School. There have been a bunch of guys drafted from American Heritage over the last 10-15 years (22 since 2001, according to Baseball-Reference.com). What kind of a baseball factory is it?

“It’s a powerhouse – not only in baseball, but in basketball and football, too. And even softball. That school has a ton of state championships, and they’re also well known for academics. I think it’s just a powerhouse school down here, to where everyone pretty much wants to go to it. It’s a really nice school. Good academics … good athletics. You couldn’t really ask for anything more. They don’t accept you unless you have the grades, too.”

So it sounds like you’ve had a pretty great experience the last few years between high school and college.

“Yes, for sure.”

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Draft Prospect Q&A Interviews MLBTR Originals Zack Collins

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MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | May 15, 2016 at 8:28am CDT

Here’s a look back at MLBTR’s original analysis and reporting over the past seven days:

  • Charlie Wilmoth spoke at length with Randy Mobley, the president of the Triple-A International League. Mobley addressed the path he took to his current position, how he feels about September call-ups, the rising values of Triple-A franchises, and the impact of implementing pitch clocks, among other topics.
  • Continuing MLBTR’s Draft Prospect Q&A Series, Chuck Wasserstrom interviewed University of Florida center fielder Buddy Reed, a potential first-round pick next month. Reed evaluated his baseball skills, touched on his past as a hockey player and explained why he chose to attend Florida instead of sign with the Rangers, who took him in the 35th round of the 2013 draft.
  • Mark Polishuk polled readers on whether the Angels should consider trading superstar center fielder Mike Trout. The results are fairly close as of now, with over 52 percent of voters supporting the notion. Given that the Angels are highly unlikely to contend this year and might have baseball’s worst farm system, the idea of the team dealing Trout for a massive haul has gained steam lately. It’s unsurprisingly a polarizing issue, however.
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MLBTR Originals

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Q+A: International League President Randy Mobley

By charliewilmoth | May 14, 2016 at 4:45pm CDT

Last week at the International League offices in suburban Columbus, league president Randy Mobley spoke to MLBTR about the opportunities and challenges of Triple-A baseball. This transcript has been edited for length.

What is your background? How did you get into this kind of work?

Grew up loving the game, played through the Division III college level. About halfway through that experience, [I] realized that was going to be the end of it, and started looking at ways to stay involved in the game. This was the late seventies, and schools were just starting to have masters degree programs in sports administration. There were only three of those programs in the entire country. Ohio State was one of the three schools that had a sports management program. So I went to Ohio State for my masters, interned with the [Columbus] Clippers at the time, and they hired me full-time after the internship. The league office at that point was in Grove City, on the south end of town. The president was Harold Cooper, who the [Clippers’] old ballpark was named after. Mr. Cooper hired me as his assistant. He then retired in 1990, and I was fortunate enough to follow him at that point in time.

Who else works here, and what are their roles?

We have two others here. Chris Sprague is my assistant and has the title of League Administrator. Chris has been with us for a little over ten years and handles a lot of the day-to-day activities — monitors rosters for the teams, puts together our league’s record book / media guide, oversees some of our league’s official scorers, things of that nature. And then we have an office manager who’s been with us for about ten years also. So just the three of us.

What’s a basic overview of what you do here?

It would be like a college league office — you know, a Big Ten office, or like the [MLB] commissioner’s office in New York. We have three basic agreements that we’re involved with. First, as a league, you have a constitution and bylaws, so we have rules that govern how the clubs interact with each other, how the league is going to be run. As a member of Minor League Baseball as a whole, we [also] have an agreement that we have to abide by as a league. So there’s that document that governs the relationship between the leagues. And then there’s a third set of rules that governs our relationship with Major League Baseball. So those three relationships — most everything branches out of those. We also are responsible for the umpires. So we’ve got 27 umpires, and whether it be situations on the field, or whether it be their transportation — all those things come through here as well.Read more

 

So if you’re monitoring compliance with various agreements, what are some examples of the kinds of things you’re monitoring?

One of the elements of that is facilities. So, are [teams] providing the elements that they’re required to for the Major League organization? They are responsible for certain things related to clubhouses. Certain things related to, just an example, batting cages. There are also rules — I’ll use doubleheaders as an example. You cannot play two consecutive [doubleheaders], or three in a seven-day period. So if we have postponements, we’re monitoring where clubs are going to place those makeup games, because we have this obligation to Major League Baseball that they can only come in a certain range. There are rules related to game times when travel is in play. So [if there’s] a night game tonight in Charlotte, and then if Charlotte is coming to Columbus, Columbus can’t play a one o’clock game tomorrow.

It seems like there is still — and maybe this is more the lower levels than the International League — that there are still a lot of differences between stadiums, even among teams in the same league.

At one point, I would agree with you. I can’t speak for the lower classifications. [But] these facility standards I referenced came into play in the early nineties, and those are what really added fuel to the fire of new ballparks around the country. So in the agreement with the Major Leagues, these facility standards went into place, so now all of a sudden, communities throughout the country have got to either upgrade, or you lose your club. I think those have brought everything much closer together. Now, particularly in this league, we’re very fortunate. The oldest ballpark in this league — the oldest “new” ballpark, if you will — is in Buffalo, built in 1988. The ballpark in Pawtucket is older than that, [but] it’s undergone major renovations since then. We’re fortunate here that most of our ballparks are more like Columbus’ is than back in the bush-league days.

What role does the International League play in facilitating affiliation changes?

Very little, actually. That is almost entirely between the team and the Major League affiliate. That’s another area where we’re very fortunate. We went through a long period with no changes at all. We’ve had a few in recent years, with the Nationals coming into existence, and they’ve bounced around a little bit. Baltimore leaving Rochester back when the Twins came in there. The Mets leaving Norfolk. But, as an example, those changes can occur only every two years. We’re on a cycle with Major League Baseball where you have a minimum of two-year agreements. You can extend in periods of two beyond that. This coming fall is one of those periods, but right now, in this league, we only have two teams that are not extended beyond this current expiration date.

What are those teams?

Rochester [Twins] and Toledo [Tigers]. And I think it’s probably just a matter of time at some point this summer that, in all likelihood, they’ll extend their agreements.

What factors lead to a stable affiliate relationship?

That’s a good question, and it’s one that’s frequently asked because, in recent times, it has gotten much more geographically dictated. Detroit, Toledo. Boston, Pawtucket. Cleveland, Columbus. Cincinnati, Louisville. My opinion is always that relationship trumps geography. Geography has become important, but you can be close together — if you don’t get along, it doesn’t work. The best example of relationship trumping geography in this league is Rochester and Minnesota. The New York Mets’ affiliate is in Las Vegas. They would love to be in this league. If they had their druthers, they’d certainly like to see themselves in Rochester. But the relationship between the Twins and the Red Wings is as good as it gets. They just work very, very well together. They respect each other entirely. So that trumps that geography element.

Obviously, player transactions are dictated by parent organizations, but what role does the International League have in facilitating them?

We really don’t facilitate the transactions. What we do with that is best described as monitoring. You’re monitoring roster limits. You’re monitoring players placed on the disabled list, making sure their time has expired before they’re activated. Those are simply reported to this office.

I notice, though, that the first place many transactions turn up is on MiLB.com. Is that something that has to do with you, or no?

It’s not. The Major League clubs file their — I’ll call it paperwork, even though it’s done electronically. That goes to the commissioner’s office. And MiLB.com, or MLB Advanced Media, which oversees that, picks all that up.

How do you feel about September callups? How do they affect your league, and the construction of playoff teams in your league? 

The effect is obvious. You can have a certain team on the last day of August, [and] on September 1st, you can have an entirely different team. That’s just one of the elements we deal with. Sometimes that’s painful, but it’s just the way it is. So we don’t spend a lot of time worrying about that. Sometimes it’s difficult for fans to accept what they see happening if their team is going into the Governor’s Cup playoffs, and now all of a sudden it’s a different team.

The example I like to use is, way back in the day, when the Mets were in fact in this league, that’s when Dwight Gooden first appeared in the International League. He was a callup to this level to replace guys that had gone to the big leagues. So we simply hope that the Major Leagues replace those guys that are going to the big leagues with the best they have from down below. And usually that’s what happens. For those who are really watching it, there’s an opportunity to see players that you’re likely to see as some of the Triple-A mainstays that next year. Along those lines, I can remember when Russell Branyan came into this league. It was the same way. He made his first appearance in the International League postseason before being back here the following year.

It’s like that pitcher that’s got a no-hitter going into the seventh inning, and now he comes out because of a pitch count. That’s tough for everybody. But that’s where, in our relationship with Major League Baseball, winning at this level and player development butt heads a little bit. And in exchange for that, one of the things we offer fans at this level is, you can be watching that guy in the Triple-A city tonight, and tomorrow he’s on ESPN. You’ve got that immediacy.

Do you feel that the number of September callups teams make is appropriate?

That’s a subject that gets discussed from a lot of angles — on the effect it has on Major League games for clubs that are in contention at the Major League level. If you’ve got two clubs that are coming down the home stretch, [and] one’s playing another team that is in contention and one’s playing teams that are out of the race and they’re playing a lot of guys that have been in the minor leagues all year, is that fair? You hear that every year. The number of players that are taken, sometimes that can be a head-scratcher for us, because you’ll see that happen and they won’t play. What that usually leads to is the justification that, “Well, we want them to get accustomed to what goes on at the Major League level, because we anticipate that they’re going to be here next year.” Okay. I’ve never worked in player development directly, so I don’t totally grasp that factor. But again, they’re [the parent organizations’] players.

What are the challenges of marketing the International League and its teams with so much player movement?

You can’t rely on marketing the players, because the one season you’re anticipating somebody being with your club who’s the Baseball America top prospect in the minor leagues, now all of a sudden he makes the big-league club. Or [his parent organization has] signed a couple of minor-league free agents, and he’s going to start off at Double-A. You can’t risk that. That doesn’t mean you don’t try to promote [him] while he’s there.

So in combination with the ballpark revolution, I’ll call it, our bread and butter now is simply good baseball, in modern, safe facilities where you can take your family at an affordable price. While I don’t think we can ever lose sight of the fact that baseball is our primary reason for being, the entertainment, the overall experience part of it, is more prominent than the individual players.

At the same time, you sometimes do get players who stay with one team for an extended period of time. I think of someone like Mike Hessman …

The hometown heroes. Mike Hessman’s a great example. It’s not this way anymore, but there was a time when the [International League] teams would control a couple roster spots. You would sign your own players, and that allowed you to control, a little bit more, that hometown hero. This wasn’t the case with them, but here in Columbus, they had a couple of guys, Marshall Brant and Steve Balboni, a couple of big home-run-hitter guys that the fans were really able to identify with for [several] years consecutively. So there is a place for that, but that minor-league team can no longer control that. That has to come through the Major League organizations. Their concerns, obviously, are, are they going to want to take a roster spot with that player? Can that player contribute enough? Obviously Mike Hessman could. There’s certainly some of that that still happens.

Is winning important in individual markets?

I think it is. Fans have to believe that when they come out there, that you’ve got a chance to win. So a team that has a .500 record, I think that fulfills most of the fans’ expectations to see a competitive activity. If your team is losing seven or eight out of every ten games, I think that has a significant detrimental effect, especially if it happens over a period of years. Now, if you have a bad year, or a couple bad consecutive years, if you have built up enough equity with the experience you’re providing the fan at the ballpark, I think you get by with that. But oftentimes that’s where we see affiliation changes, where you get into a pattern of seeing, year after year, where your team is getting their brains beat out. On the other extreme, I don’t think you have to win 75% of your games every year to be successful.

With that in mind, how do you feel rosters should be balanced in terms of Triple-A veterans versus prospects?

It’s always fun when you can see those young prospects, but I think the baseball fan has changed in the last few decades, in that I don’t think there are as many diehard fans that follow it on a day-to-day basis — you know, that read the box scores. I think we have more casual fans, because I think there are people that would consider themselves fans that are fans of the activity, fans of going to the ballpark. They enjoy the atmosphere that we’re creating. But even as fans of that type, I don’t know that they’re necessarily honed in too closely on who the prospects are or who the veterans are.

Has the value of Triple-A franchises increased parallel to the value of MLB franchises in recent years?

Yeah, it’s been very positive, and a lot of it goes back to the facilities, and the increased attendance that has come along with that. To give you an example, Columbus had Triple-A baseball, and then after the 1970 season, because of the deteriorating ballpark, baseball left Columbus. When Mr. Cooper and his colleagues brought baseball back in 1977, they paid $50K for the franchise.

In 1993, we had the expansion that took Major League Baseball from 26 to 28 teams. Triple-A baseball also expanded. We charged $5MM for expansion franchises. Five years later, [with] the second expansion in 1998, the franchise fee was $7.5MM. The most recent Triple-A franchise now sold for above $30MM. That doesn’t mean they would all go for that — that’s at the high end. [But] those values have obviously increased significantly.

With that comes a different type of ownership. There’s good and bad to all this. You have people that have gotten in the game [as owners] in recent years as franchise values increased where they believe it has become a good investment. Buy it, sell it. From a stability standpoint, from a league-president standpoint, that’s not always great. On the other hand, those folks probably have more zeroes in their bank accounts than owners did previously, so they can do some different things with that. It’s just very different than it was. In the eighties and before, you could probably classify some of our operations as mom-and-pop operations. It was the bush leagues. But we have long since elevated ourselves, and it’s hard to call anything in the minor leagues anymore bush leagues.

The Triple-A All-Star Game is in Charlotte this year. How do the International League, the PCL and the host city divide responsibility for making sure that goes well?

The host league takes a forefront position. We have a document that was developed by the two leagues. When that first [Triple-A All-Star] game was played in 1988 in Buffalo, the two leagues had gotten together — we have a joint marketing committee consisting of members from both leagues — and developed a document that has evolved over the years. And that sets out the guidelines as to how that game is going to be operated. What events you’re going to have. It limits clubs on how much you can charge for events, and so forth. We have rotated that back and forth over the years. Each league, when it’s their year, will nominate a team [from] the other league — you know, “Here’s where we think it should be,” and in most cases the other league is rubber-stamping that, and that becomes the selectee. We’ve certainly tried to take advantage of new ballparks over the years and highlighting those. I’ll be going to Charlotte here in about ten days for another All-Star Game meeting, just to get brought up to speed on where things are at this point.

How much traveling do you do for this job?

Somebody who travels for a living wouldn’t think that what I do is a lot. It probably averages about a week a month. I’ll go to Charlotte, and then drive up to Durham, where I’m going to — their former manager, Charlie Montoyo, is one of our [International League] Hall Of Fame inductees this year, so we’ll be having that ceremony on the 19th. Last year, I did a lot of traveling the first month [or] five weeks of the season because we were implementing the pitch clocks, so I went to most of the ballparks and actually sat during the game with the person operating those clocks, trying to make sure they were on the right track. But I don’t try to get to every stadium every season. I’ll try to get to about half and then make sure I get to the other half the next year.

How did the implementation of pitch clocks go?

It went very well. It’s an interesting story. During the 2014 season, we found that in ten seasons, our game times had increased 20 minutes. They had gone up every year. There was no indication that it was going to stop unless we did something. So during the 2014 season, we developed what we called the “Move It Along” plan, and this was going to involve limiting the amount of time between innings. Oftentimes, between innings, pitchers weren’t coming out of the dugout for a minute or a minute and a half even to begin their warmups. Part of that is because teams were taking a long time with promotions. We had this all prepared and adopted by our directors at the 2014 Winter Meetings. Later in those same meetings — Sandy Alderson with the Mets chairs the official playing rules committee, and invited me to a meeting. That fall, MLB had been testing these clocks in the Arizona Fall League, and they had decided they wanted to put those in all Triple-A and Double-A ballparks for the 2015 season. So we were able to marry elements of our “Move It Along” plan with the implementation of these clocks. We cut 16 minutes off of the average game time, and it was simply being more efficient. It didn’t affect the game.


Thanks to Wilbur Miller for his advice on the questions for this interview.

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MLBTR Originals

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Buddy Reed (University of Florida) Interview: Draft Prospect Q&A

By Chuck Wasserstrom | May 12, 2016 at 10:35am CDT

MLBTR continues its Draft Prospect Q&A series in order to give our readers a look at some of the top names on the board in this year’s draft. MLBTR will be chatting with some of the draft’s most well-regarded prospects as they prepare for the 2016 draft on June 9-11; we’ve already spoken with prep outfielder Blake Rutherford, Mercer’s Kyle Lewis, Oklahoma’s Alec Hansen and Louisville’s Corey Ray.

Center fielder Buddy Reed is one of the more intriguing names in this year’s draft. The 6’4”, 207-pound University of Florida junior ranks as one of the top all-around players in college thanks to his speed and defensive ability, but the big question is how teams look at the switch-hitter’s bat.

Reed grew up just outside of Baltimore, where he was a well-regarded hockey player. He went to boarding school nearly seven hours from home at St. George’s School in Middletown, R.I. – a tiny school with a vast array of recognizable alums (the Bush family, the Vanderbilts, as well as many politicians and journalists). Reed went there on a hockey scholarship, where his coach was former Washington Capitals center Ryan Mulhern.

Reed, a 35th-round selection of the Texas Rangers in the 2013 draft, figures to be selected considerably higher this time around. Last week, Baseball America listed him No. 21 on its Top 100 Draft Prospects chart, and he’s currently 16th on the Top 100 at MLB.com. He leads Florida in runs scored (41) and stolen bases (22-for-24), including a straight steal of home April 22 against Georgia.

Reed and his No. 1-ranked Gators squad have a big SEC showdown series this weekend against No. 7 Vanderbilt. He talked with MLBTR earlier this week:

Chuck Wasserstrom: Hi Buddy, thanks for taking the time to talk with me. I’ll start out by saying there haven’t been a whole lot of Buddy Reed stories out there, but it looks like you have a pretty fascinating background. I’m going to start off with a couple baseball questions, then get into your story. There are some talented college outfielders out there right now. What makes you different?

Buddy Reed: “I haven’t been playing baseball as long or as seriously as other people in the SEC and other conferences around the country.”

I want to hear about Buddy Reed the player. Describe your game for me. I don’t want a scouting report that I can read on the internet. I want to hear you tell me about your game.

“I would describe myself as a streaky guy. I’m a tall guy who can bunt. I can get on base. I can steal second, third, and even home. I’m a threat on the base paths. I’m a threat from the outfield with my arm and my speed; I can track down a lot of balls. And I can hit.”

[Full interview after the page break]

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I’m finding your background very intriguing. But first I’d like to know, how did you wind up “Buddy” when your given name is Michael?

“It started when I was first born. My mom always called me Buddy. From there, she just kept it – and it stuck.”

You landed in Gainesville after attending St. George’s School, a boarding school about seven hours from where you grew up. How did you wind up at a boarding school in the northeast?

Buddy Reed

“I got a scholarship for hockey. It was a small school – ninth grade through 12th grade, about 350-380 kids. We had (the Atlantic Ocean) across the street. It’s a prep school, so you get a lot of people who go on to Ivy League schools from there. Sports are starting to come along, but it’s really not a sports school. It’s more of an academic-based school, but sports are getting up to date. And it’s fun – it gives you that college experience and you’re away from home. You have to do everything on your own. The biggest thing is you create relationships with the people you meet. I’ve got friends from all over the country and the world since I went there. So it was pretty cool.”

There are some pretty strong alums from St. George’s, but not much from the athletic side. What would it be like if people said, “He came from our school?”

“That would be pretty cool. I haven’t been back there in a while, but I think that would be pretty cool. My hockey coach (Ryan Mulhern) played for the Washington Capitals. He went to St. George’s then went to Brown University before playing for the Capitals. That would be cool to be remembered as one of those guys who went to that school and made a name for himself in a pro sport – and to have had the athletic and academic support.

What position did you play in hockey?

“I played right wing, left wing, and center.”

So you played on the offensive side.

“Yes I was.”

You also played soccer. Offense there, too?

“Same there. I was an attacker.”

Growing up … hockey fan first, or a fan of all sports?

“I’m actually a fan of all sports. Growing up, I played hockey mostly – and soccer. I still watch hockey all the time. Whenever I get a chance to skate, I skate. I watch soccer – English Premier League, MLS. I play FIFA a lot. I’m a fan of the sports that I played. And I’m a fan of basketball, football – and baseball, obviously.”

You said you try to skate when you can. Do you get a chance to do that in Gainesville?

“No, usually when I’m home.”

Is it true at St. George’s that you went to school six days a week?

“Yes, six days – Monday through Saturday.”

The school’s official street address is listed as being on Purgatory Road. How tough was it there?

“It was different. Not everyone has to go to class six days a week. It wasn’t bad. We lived on campus. You would see the same people every day. It was a change, actually, from boarding school to college and getting that Saturday off. But it was fun. They got as much as they could out of us. You had to learn a lot more, I guess. Saturday, you just woke up and said, ’OK, I have to go to class.’ You still had the night off. The schedule worked out, because we had athletic competitions on Wednesdays and Saturdays – so they wanted us active in class on Saturday.”

I read about a famous Geronimo sloop that’s connected to St. George’s.

“The boat that goes from our school to the Bahamas.”

Did you get to do one of those voyages?

“No, I didn’t get to do it because I was playing a sport all three seasons. That was usually for people who didn’t play a sport – or for those who don’t play all three.”

You went there for hockey, but when did the shift begin toward baseball as a potential college scholarship sport for you?

“After my sophomore year, I played summer baseball and did one of those Perfect Game showcase things. I guess I decided I wanted to play soccer, hockey and baseball to see which one worked out for college.”

Did you have any hockey scholarship offers?

“I had a couple schools. The one that had the most interest was Providence.”

What about on the baseball side? Who was looking at you in addition to Florida?

“After I committed to Florida, there were other schools that wanted me like Texas and Texas Tech. But Florida stayed on top of me, and a lot of schools stopped talking to me. But I still got some late calls from some northern schools.”

When the Rangers drafted you in 2013, did you give them any serious consideration – or had you already decided you were going to college?

“I did a little bit, because I didn’t really know what the whole baseball draft process was like. I was so unsure what to expect so I gave it some consideration, but then I told my parents that I thought I’d develop more as a player and academically if I went to Florida for three or four years – and then hopefully get drafted higher after that.”

How much culture shock was it going from a school of under 400 students to one with nearly 50,000 students?

“It was pretty different. I didn’t know what to expect. The people that I met and the people that I’ve gotten to know really well have given me the opportunity that I probably wouldn’t have gotten if I had gone to a smaller school. It’s not just baseball; it’s building relationships with people in my mode here – communications. Baseball will only last so long for me. There’s a lot more to it after. It’s pretty cool meeting a lot of new people and seeing what the college experience has to offer.”

Tell me a little bit about your switch-hitting. Everything I’ve heard is that your swing mirrors itself pretty much the same from both sides of the plate.

“I’d say so. It depends on how I set up. It’s still a work in progress. For now, I’m just ‘See the ball, hit the ball.’ I try to keep it as simple as possible. If changes need to be made, I’ll make adjustments.”

Are you one of those players who looks in the mirror to visualize how you look from the other side?

“Yeah, definitely. And watching videos from my previous at-bats after practice.”

Is it true that your mom taught you to switch-hit?

“Yes, she did when I was growing up. I don’t remember how old I was, but she put up a tee and told me to hit from one side – and when I got tired, just hit from the other side. So I kept doing that.”

Quick question, since you’ve done both this year: Walk-off homer or straight steal of home?

“Oh jeez, that’s tough … I think the steal of home was pretty cool.”

What was going through your head in the game against Georgia when you got the sign?

“I was given the sign. The pitcher was pretty slow to the plate, and he was pitching from the windup. I knew I had to be aggressive. The pitcher started his motion and I got a big jump – and I slid in pretty easily. That was pretty big.”

What’s bigger for you – a highlight offensive play or a highlight defensive play?

“I’d say a defensive play. That’s more of a highlight, just because I like the things that hold off runs being scored.”

Any significance in your wearing No. 23?

“You know, everybody wants to be like Mike. Freshman year, it was available. Twenty-three – everyone likes it.”

Have you allowed yourself to think about what you’re going to do on the day of the draft?

“No, I’m not focusing on that at all. I’m focusing on winning – and doing whatever I can for the team to win. We’re all here supporting each other. Whether it’s my last go-around or not, I just want to win, and I want to have fun doing it. That’s what it really comes down to … having fun and being a good teammate … on-and-off the field … caring about the guys that I’ve met here. The draft isn’t a big concern; that will take care of itself. I just want to win a national championship.”

How close-knit is your team?

“We’re really close. Chemistry was one of the biggest things we put a lot of emphasis on going into this season. This is one of the closest teams I’ve ever been on. We hang out with each other all the time. We always have each other’s backs. We’re like brothers. It’s cool to see it, because I’m an only child. So it’s like I have 30 other brothers when I want to see them. We care for each other. We want to get the most out of each other. And that’s pretty cool.”

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

Photo courtesy of UAA Communications.

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MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | May 8, 2016 at 8:10am CDT

Here’s a look back at MLBTR’s original analysis and reporting over the past seven days:

  • With the season’s first month in the books, Tim Dierkes updated his free agent power rankings for next offseason, listing the 10 players who appear poised to earn the most money if they hit the open market over the winter. Tim also included two honorable mentions who could crack the top 10 if their current performances continue.
  • Mark Polishuk examined four low- to mid-tier players who improved their respective stocks with strong first months in their contract years. The group is headlined by Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler, who has been among the majors’ top players in the early going.
  • Steve Adams countered Mark by detailing eight contract-year players who dug themselves early holes in April. Steve focused on players who entered the campaign looking primed to land deals of at least three years in length during free agency next winter.
  • On this week’s edition of the MLBTR Podcast, Steve joined host Jeff Todd to discuss the hype surrounding Tim Lincecum’s showcase, the outstanding performance the Phillies’ young pitching staff has delivered so far, and the upswing in financial mechanisms (particularly Fantex) that players may be able to use to secure guaranteed money while retaining future earning upside. A new episode of the podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher.
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Pending Free Agents That Dug An Early Hole In April

By Steve Adams | May 2, 2016 at 8:54pm CDT

Last night, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at a number of free agents that bolstered their stock with a huge April performance (with the help of some Fangraphs leaderboards that he made for free-agent position players and pitchers). While Mark elected to look at some second- and third-tier free agents that are currently ascending the free agent power rankings, it’s also worth taking a look at the inverse; that is, players that may have had fairly strong free agent cases but have put themselves behind the eight ball. There are, of course, a number of pending free agents that struggled in the season’s first month, but rather than focusing on players that were candidates for shorter, smaller-scale deals in the first place, it seems worthwhile to identify some potentially significant earners that have gotten off on the wrong foot. It should be noted, of course, that a poor month or two isn’t a nail in the coffin to a player’s free agent hopes. Ian Kennedy, for instance, had a 7.15 ERA on June 1 last season and still pulled in $70MM and an opt-out clause this winter. However, there were others that struggled — most notably, perhaps, being Ian Desmond — and never fully recovered.

For the purposes of this post, I’m highlighting players that entered the season with legitimate cases for earning a deal of three years or more on the open market this coming offseason but have a long ways to go to now make that a reality…

Matt Wieters: I was among the crowd that was surprised to see Wieters accept Baltimore’s qualifying offer last November. Despite the fact that he was eased back into catching and hadn’t shown that he could consistently catch on consecutive days, Wieters slashed .267/.319/.422 — a batting line that was precisely league average in the eyes of both OPS+ and wRC+. A catcher that can put up league-average numbers at the plate is a hugely valuable commodity, and Wieters was still reasonably young and had a notable pedigree. Now, however, he’s batting .214/.290/.304 through his first 16 contests, and he’s caught on back-to-back days just once. Nineteen strikeouts in 62 plate appearances doesn’t help his cause whatsoever.

Carlos Gomez: Some will scoff at this notion, but if Gomez had come out the gates blazing and finished with numbers that closely resembled his 2013-14 production, he’d have had a case for a $200MM contract. Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM contract would have been looked at as a floor for agent Scott Boras, if it was even on his radar at all. Players that can deliver elite center field defense, 20+ homer power and all-around batting lines that are 25 to 30 percent above the league average are of the utmost rarity, and Gomez would’ve been entering his age-31 season. That’s a year older than Ellsbury was when he signed, but Gomez has had more offensive success, and Shin-Soo Choo can speak to the fact that it’s possible to take home seven years entering an age-31 season. Gomez, though, is hitting just .213/.241/.275 with 24 strikeouts and two walks in 83 PAs. The enormous ceiling still has him rated fifth on Tim Dierkes’ free-agent power rankings, but another month like April and Gomez will continue his slide down the list.

Edwin Encarnacion: At .240/.287/.380, Encarnacion’s bat hasn’t been completely nonexistent, but it certainly hasn’t lived up to his standards. I’d be less concerned about his production than any hitter on this list, as he’s curbed a brief strikeout binge to some extent while being plagued by a BABIP south of .180 over his past 12 games and also struggled through a poor April last season before coming to life in May. Encarnacion missed most of Spring Training as well, which could further explain the early rust. Nonetheless, he can’t undo the poor month of production he endured, and he’ll need to offset that lack of pop and those Ks with some heightened productions in the season’s warmer months. He’s currently seventh on Tim’s power rankings.

Erick Aybar: Aybar’s earning power was never going to match that of Wieters or Gomez, but with a strong season and a paper-thin crop of shortstops on the horizon, he had an easy case for a multi-year deal if he could get back to his 2014 form. However, Aybar is hitting just .163/.180/.198, and his glove at shortstop has been so poor that the Braves are already giving him some time at second base. Aybar has cost the Braves three runs at shortstop according to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, and his results at the plate are among the worst in baseball. That’s a terrible way to start any contract year, but it’s especially troubling for a player that will turn 33 next January.

Austin Jackson: We’re coming up on three years now since Jackson enjoyed an above-average offensive season, and with half of his games coming at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field this season, it’ll be difficult to make the claim that his home park played any role in his woes. Defensive metrics are down on his glove in center field as well. If his numbers since 2014 are indicative of Jackson’s true skills now, he’s a player that can handle center but perhaps not excel there with a bat that’s 10 to 15 percent below the league average. A .229/.273/.337 start through his first 90 plate appearances doesn’t do much to help his cause.

Doug Fister: Fister looked to be poised for a significant multi-year deal at the time of his trade to the Nationals, and while his first season carried some red flags, a one-year deal worth $7MM was still an implausible outcome heading into the 2015 season. Fister, though, lost his hold on a rotation spot thanks in large part to the fact that he struggled to scrape 87 mph for much of last season. The diminished velocity led to the second-worst strikeout rate of his career, and his control took a step backward as well. This season, Fister’s velocity is again in the mid-80s, and the collective result of his work is a 4.60 ERA with a 16-to-12 K/BB ratio in 29 1/3 innings. There’s some hope for the 32-year-old, though, as his sinker’s velocity has indeed steadily crept upward, topping out at an average of 88.2 mph in his most recent start (6.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K). Fister was a fine pitcher when he last averaged 88-89 mph, and if he can maintain the most recent gains or even see a bit more of an increase, the rest of the season could look much brighter than his ominous April.

Drew Storen: A trade to the homer-friendly Rogers Centre is never particularly good for a pitcher, but Storen’s struggles to begin the 2016 campaign go beyond his early proneness to the long ball. Storen has surrendered three homers with the Jays after yielding just four in 2015 and two in 2014, and his home park isn’t the only issue. Storen’s fastball velocity is hovering around 92 mph this season — a noted step down from his previous levels of 93-94.5 mph. A look at his velocity charts shows that this isn’t simply a case where he’s yet to build up to a midseason peak, either; he’s never started out a season with velocity this low, and his swinging-strike rate is at its lowest point since a difficult 2013 season. All of these data points are small samples, and that’s doubly true with a reliever, so it should be stressed that we’re looking at eight innings worth of work here. However, the decreases in velocity and swings/misses are notable even if Storen’s 30 percent homer-to-flyball ratio is all but certain to regress.

Andrew Cashner: While there’s more to like about Cashner’s start than the starts of Fister and Storen — he’s averaging eight strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.91 FIP — Cashner’s 4.94 ERA leaves plenty to be desired. The results have never really lined up with the raw stuff and pedigree that Cashner brings to the table, sometimes due to underperformance and other times due to injury. Teams are more willing to look past ERA than ever before, but Cashner’s walk rate is up after a notable increase in 2015, and his early ground-ball rate hasn’t measured up to his previously strong marks.

There’s plenty of early-season noise every season, and many of these slow starts will prove to be just that. However, it’s also worth monitoring each of the listed players over the next month or two, as it becomes increasingly difficult to climb out of these holes as the season wears on. Desmond, Alexei Ramirez and two of the players on this very list (Wieters and Fister) all provide testament to that.

Thanks to MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk for creating the free agent leaderboards and of course to Fangraphs for providing the indispensable means to do so.

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2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | May 2, 2016 at 10:49am CDT

The first month of the 2016 MLB season is in the books, and we’ve got movement in our 2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  These rankings apply to players projected to reach free agency after this season, and the players are ranked based on earning power.  In the middle of April, the Rangers unsurprisingly extended Adrian Beltre, so he’s off the list.  To see the full list of 2016-17 MLB Free Agents, click here.

1.  Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg was dominant in the season’s first month, carrying over his success from last year.  By measure of wins above replacement, only Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard have been better.  With a full season of good health, agent Scott Boras could look to push a seven-year deal for Strasburg past $240MM.  An opt-out clause or two will surely figure in as well.  Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July.

2.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes jumps up a spot after a huge April.  In addition to seven home runs, he even managed to draw a few extra walks.  A less streaky campaign than 2015, perhaps ending with around 35 home runs again, could net Cespedes the six-year deal that eluded him last winter.  To take a shot at it, he’ll have to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his current contract with the Mets.

3.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista continues to do his thing, hitting for power and drawing lots of walks.  Last week, Jon Heyman tweeted that he believes Bautista will take less than his five-year, $150MM asking price but not less than $100MM.  Something a bit north of $100MM on a four-year deal does seem plausible for Bautista, who told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last month that he is willing to negotiate in-season with the Blue Jays.

4.  Josh Reddick.  Nothing out of the ordinary from Reddick in April.  As a solid player who doesn’t turn 30 until February, Reddick could be a sneaky candidate for a five-year deal this winter.  He told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that he’s not aware of any substantive extension talks with the A’s.  In that column, Morosi had some interesting speculation about whether the Cubs could trade for Reddick this summer.

5.  Carlos Gomez.  Gomez is hitting .245/.303/.364 since June of last year, and I’ve dropped him three spots since our last rankings.  The Astros’ center fielder is currently battling rib cage soreness and is trying to avoid the DL.  For the Astros, Gomez just hasn’t looked like the player he was with the Brewers.  Even if he performs to projections from here on out, which is a total unknown, Gomez could be limited to a four-year deal in the range of Alex Gordon’s $72MM.  He carries further downside risk if this becomes a lost season.

6.  Kenley Jansen.  Business as usual for Jansen, who has allowed one run in his first ten appearances.  If the save opportunities continue coming as they did in April, perhaps the Dodgers’ closer can top his career high of 44 saves.  It would be interesting to see a reliever earn the second-largest pitching contract of the offseason.  Jansen could make that happen with a precedent-shattering five-year deal.

7.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Like last year, it was a rough April for Encarnacion.  The Blue Jays’ designated hitter has shown many times he’s capable of going on a tear.  Still, my confidence in a four-year deal for Encarnacion is wavering a bit.  He’ll turn 34 in January.

8.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman’s 30-game suspension for a domestic violence incident ends a week from today, and he’ll presumably jump right into the Yankees’ closer role.  He’s been working out at the Yankees’ minor league complex, taking some time last week to become a U.S. citizen.  I expect Jansen to do better than Chapman in free agency, but Chapman should still land a huge contract if he stays incident-free until free agency.

9.  Francisco Cervelli.  Cervelli makes his first appearance in our top ten.  The Pirates’ backstop has stepped it up a notch after a stellar 2015, and ranks fifth in the NL with a .438 on-base percentage.    As it stands now I could see a four-year deal worth $60MM, and I think he could have a shot at five years if his offensive success continues.  Quite the transformation for Cervelli, who will turn 31 shortly before the 2017 season.

10.  Dexter Fowler.  Like Cespedes, Fowler could find the contract that eluded him after another year back with his old team.  So far in 2016, Fowler has been the best player in baseball.  The Cubs’ center fielder boasts an MLB-best .470 OBP.  Though he’s never approached four wins above replacement, Fowler already has two in the books after one month.  If he stays healthy and productive, Fowler should be able to get a four-year deal in free agency.

Neil Walker and Michael Saunders are both pushing for a spot in our top ten after stellar starts to their seasons.  Walker has already crushed nine home runs, and could reach 30 this year.  Saunders is healthy and hitting after a lost 2015.  Typically weaker against left-handed pitching, Saunders smacked three home runs off southpaws in April, including two off Drew Smyly.  Colby Rasmus, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado, and Rich Hill are a few others off to hot starts in 2016.  Andrew Cashner drops out of our top ten after a lackluster April.

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MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | May 1, 2016 at 8:24am CDT

Here’s a look back at MLBTR’s original analysis and reporting over the past seven days:

  • In the latest edition of the MLBTR College Series, Chuck Wasserstrom spoke with Twins vice president and assistant general manager Rob Antony about his college days at the University of Minnesota. Antony started off hoping for a career as a sportswriter, landed an internship in the Twins’ media relations department in 1987, and worked his way up to become one of their most prominent executives.
  • Chuck’s second interview of the week, with Chaminade College Preparatory School center fielder Blake Rutherford, continued MLBTR’s Draft Prospect Q&A Series. The native of California is one of the highest-rated high school players entering June’s amateur draft, with ESPN prospect aficionado Keith Law saying he has “the most advanced pure bat in the class, college or high school.” Rutherford, who will attend UCLA if he goes to college, touches on what makes him a special player and which future Hall of Famer he patterns his game after, among other interesting subjects.
  • Continuing a Chuck-centric week, the former member of the Cubs’ front office joined host Jeff Todd on the MLBTR Podcast. Chuck spent 25 years with the Cubs – 16 in media relations and nine in baseball operations – and that lengthy tenure helped lead to his accomplished writing career. A new episode of the podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
  • Major League Baseball has doled out 80-game suspensions for performance-enhancing drugs to Blue Jays first baseman Chris Colabello and Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon since last week. With that in mind, Jeff revisited an article from November 2013 that focuses on whether the current system does enough to disincentivize the use of PEDs. In the highly recommended piece, Jeff offers some possible improvements over the anti-PED measures MLB has in place.
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PED Incentives And The Next JDA

By Jeff Todd | April 29, 2016 at 4:07pm CDT

The following article originally appeared at MLBTradeRumors.com on November 29, 2013. With the recent suspensions of Dee Gordon and Chris Colabello, the subject of PED incentives has once again entered the spotlight. Although the post initially addresses the situation of a player reaching the free agent market after a positive PED test, it represents an effort to consider functional punishments for a variety of scenarios by attempting to distinguish between players in different situations in setting PED disincentives.

Gordon, of course, is in the first season of a five-year extension. The general rule framework proposed below would result in a much greater financial loss than his actual suspension will cause him, which arguably provides a stronger disincentive — all while limiting the skewing of team incentives and market function to the extent possible. Read the full post below:

—

We’ve all seen the range of responses to the four-year, $53MM deal that Jhonny Peralta inked with the Cardinals right on the heels of serving a fifty game suspension for violating the performance enhancing substances prohibitions contained in the league’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program (JDA). Rather than rehash them here, or take a moral stand in one way or another, I’d like to look at things from a practical perspective.

By guaranteeing four years at over $13MM per, the contract went well beyond the biggest multi-year deals given to other players recently hit with a suspension just before hitting free agency. That doesn’t change the moral calculus, but it does highlight that — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has explained — teams may not be substantially reducing their valuation of a player based on his past usage of PEDs. Though clubs may factor in some negative PR value, discount past performance during periods of use, or add in a bit of an additional risk adjustment, the net just isn’t that great.

Peralta may well have landed his deal because of his steady production and defense at a position in great demand on the present market, rather than his PED use. But he just as surely did not lose his deal because of the banned substances that he took.

This matters most, it seems to me, because of what it says about incentives. Teams’ market-driven decision-making is apparently not going to provide a significant disincentive on its own. And the fact is, as Cards’ GM John Mozeliak correctly points out, “at this point in the game, there’s nothing that says [Peralta] can’t go play or isn’t free to go sign with another club.”

And, arguably, neither is the JDA itself doing enough to shift the PED equation. Like all punitive systems, the JDA sets up upon negatives incentives to outweigh positive incentives to engage in the behavior it wishes to prohibit. As Diamondbacks reliever and union rep Brad Ziegler said on Twitter: “We thought 50 games would be a deterrent. Obviously it’s not.”

This may be somewhat overstated: the shaming effect (especially given the shift in player sentiment) and suspension process seem to be having at least some effect, as most observers acknowledge that PED usage is not nearly as rampant as it once was. On the other hand, Ziegler is definitely on to something. At least for some players, in some situations, the benefits to using PEDs outweigh the drawbacks — even, perhaps, if they are caught. The meager weight of the current suspension system, I think, is the most worrying lesson from the Peralta deal.

Viewed in its worst light, the suspension system creates a mental process much like the kitchen table scene in Office Space. Playing the devil on the shoulder of his would-be co-conspirators, Peter Gibbons seals their agreement to skim cash from their hated employer by dismissing the downside: “This isn’t Riyadh. … The worst they would ever do is they would put you for a couple of months into a white-collar, minimum-security resort!”

But is it really the case that the use of banned substances could, in some cases, present only de minimus downside for a player? Is Ziegler right that Peralta shows that “it pays to cheat”?

In some ways, that certainly could be the case. Players who get caught with their hand in the cookie jar often claim they used PEDs to help recover from injury, not to artificially boost performance. Now that we’re past the era of cartoonishly outsized sluggers, that may even be the most common and impactful use of PEDs. You know, just getting back to a player’s regular level of production and giving him a chance to demonstrate his value at an opportune time. Sure, he may pay for it later by giving up fifty games worth of salary. But the chance to, say, highlight performance before hitting free agency, or jump at an early-career MLB opportunity, can often be invaluable to a ballplayer.

So, assuming that a blanket ban on the list of disallowed PEDs is in fact the goal — putting aside, in other words, the debate on their use in injury rehab — it seems to me that a more thoughtful disincentive system is plainly needed. As a baseline, it is important to recognize that PED prohibition is an agreed-upon rule of the game, and its enforcement is as much about fairness to clean players (and to fans) as it is about keeping dirty players from using to their own long-term health detriment.

Click below to see my conceptual proposal for some methods that might be employed, individually or in concert, to arrive at a more effective system of PED disincentives. These include: eliminating suspensions altogether; varying punishment based upon service time and/or contract status; and utilizing financial disincentives while minimizing impact on competition and the market.

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Eliminating Suspensions and New Team Disincentives

The fifty game suspension has proven relatively weak, at least in some circumstances. The salary hit can be substantial, but it is hardly earth-shattering and could be imposed without the loss of playing time. And the Peralta deal seems to show that, at least if you aren’t otherwise viewed as a problem child, clubs are not discounting heavily what they’re willing to pay PED users.

But, suspension does at least hold the promise of providing disincentives to teams as well as players. And after all, shouldn’t clubs bear some responsibility for ensuring a clean slate of players, or at least for not willingly supporting PED use? Of course, at least to some extent. But the current system hardly makes sense.

As any parent knows, timing and context are critical in how you dole out punishments to your kids. Ryan Braun recently admitted that he took PEDs in late 2011, potentially boosting an MVP season that fueled the Brewers’ division title. On the other hand, he served his suspension at the back end of a lost season for a bottom-dwelling club, and did not even see much of a financial hit since his nine-figure extension has yet to kick in.

Indeed, the suspension/loss of pay system can easily have an ambiguous impact on the team. For instance: Alex Rodriguez is the Yankees’ highest-paid player. At one point, at least, that reflected that the team thought he was its best player. So, suspension is bad for the team, right? But, of course, we all now know, subjectively, that A-Rod is but a shell of his former self, and the suspension will save the Yanks a lot of dough. On the other hand, perhaps with mixed motivations, GM Brian Cashman says he’d rather pay Rodriguez and have him on the field.

And ultimately, it may not be appropriate to punish teams if there is no tie between their actions and that of the player. No public information has suggested that the Tigers were in any way involved in Peralta’s violation, yet they lost him down the stretch while pursuing a division title. In many cases, players will reach the point of suspension with a team other than that for which they played when they actually used the banned substance.

In designing those elements of a new system targeted at teams, there are any number of mechanisms to create major disincentives that are not specifically tied to an individual player’s contract or game availability. Loss of draft picks (along with pool allocation), sacrifice of international spending money, even caps on free agent spending are but a few ideas that come to mind. All make more sense as team deterrents than a suspension. In the alternative — or, in addition — teams could be stripped of titles or face substantial fines if found to have encouraged PED use for competitive benefit.

That still leaves the unresolved question of when teams should face punishment. Some have suggested an automatic punishment for clubs whose players are caught, which I find problematic at first glance. That would make teams the de facto PED guardians, and may not adequately reflect the extent to which players act entirely outside of their organization in obtaining substances. Surely, if the league can obtain evidence of a player’s use, it can dig up information showing whether a team played any role in it, punishing any specific team employees as well as the team itself.

Of course, per se team penalties are arguably necessary to overcome systemic hesitation to pursue the entities that together make up the league and employ its leadership. But if players are as serious about getting PEDs out of the game as they say, then perhaps anonymous or otherwise incentivized information reporting could overcome fears of reprisal.

Service Time and Contract Status

Turning to suggestions for a replacement system, it seems to me that one major problem with the current setup is its single set of punishments. While perfectly tailored disincentives are an impossibility — after all, every player is a different person with different wants and needs — it seems possible to make some adjustments that reflect the very different roster and contract situations that players are in.

As an initial matter, it would be necessary to decide whether to slot punishment based upon a player’s status at the time that they are deemed to have violated the agreement or at the time that the punishment is levied. While the former is appealing, it carries the added difficulty of pinpointing violation timetables and may provide a weaker deterrent, since players generally reach greater earning capacity as they accrue service time.

Further, as already hinted at, it is preferable to limit as much as possible the number of scenarios that carry separate punishments, which will aid implementation and help keep things clear. My preliminary suggestion, based upon my proposed punitive system, would be to separate out classes of players based upon service time accrued as of the date of punishment.

Separation based upon service time would at least allow a rough generalization of the incentives at play for players at that stage of their career, which in turns makes it easier to craft disincentives to shift the equation against PED use. (Remember, we are only talking here about players that have achieved 40-man roster status and are therefore subject to the JDA.) And it allows more flexibility for tailoring disincentives without getting overly complicated.

So, what disincentives should be employed?

Effective Financial Disincentives That Do Not Skew Competition Or The Market

As Ziegler hinted, the key may be to hit offending players’ pocketbooks in a way that makes getting caught a significant threat, not just a cost of doing business. Non-financial possibilities exist as well, such as adding minor league options, delaying free agency, or limiting the length or size of a deal that a free agent can sign. But each of those options would have a real effect on baseball’s player market: the first two, for instance, would clearly benefit the player’s team, and the latter would drastically skew the open market signing process.

Instead, I believe that it makes the most to target player earnings directly. There are three key elements that, I think, combine to best align the competing considerations here:

  1. By keeping such “taxed” amounts on teams’ payrolls, but out of players’ pockets, the market-distorting effects can be minimized.
  2. By employing an incremental tax rate system to player earnings, it would be possible to hit higher-salary players hard enough to create a real deterrent.
  3. Providing a longer term over which the “tax” applies for players with less service time would give the system bite for younger players who might otherwise not see sufficient downside.

Starting with the first point, my suggestion is that players receiving PED punishment would nevertheless continue to accrue service time and negotiate salaries exactly as before. Artificial limitations on earnings would have a massive and hard-to-predict impact in all sorts of situations. If, say, an arb-eligible player lost his eligibility for a year when he’d be a possible non-tender, his current team could enjoy an advantage in retaining him at league minimum. Or, if a free agent was only allowed to sign a predetermined, one-year contract, an attractive suitor might be able to take him away from other clubs who would be willing to spend more.

Instead, my tax concept would allow the player and team(s) to negotiate as before, with the caveat that the player would lose a certain percentage of his actual take-home pay. By taking a percentage (at an escalating rate based on pay level), the player would still have the same incentives to maximize dollars, whether through arbitration, extension, or free agency. By prescribing a specific term of years over which the tax would apply and phase out (even if it extended over multiple contracts), the player would still have the same incentives to maximize years.

As for what happens with the “taxed” sums, it seems that many appropriate options might exist. From the fund of lost PED earnings, the league could set up educational initiatives, provide benefits to retired players, support charities, develop league-wide initiatives, or employ some mix of the above.

Turning to the incremental rate, my proposal would work like much like the tax code, with a greater chunk of salary being taken as the annual value goes up. To illustrate with some wholly arbitrary numbers, the league-minimum level might get a 30% rake while a $10MM salary might be hit at 70%. If a player’s annual salary were to rise during the time period during which they are subject to the tax, their rate would rise with it.

At the same time, a phase-out process would reduce the tax over the prescribed term. So, for example, if a certain player faced a 50% tax based on his salary, but was in a 25% phase-out year, the player would sacrifice three-eighths of his salary for that season. In situations where the salary structure of multi-year deals (whether preexisting, as with Braun, or prospective) could benefit the player, it would be relatively easy to average out the value for purposes of assessing the tax. (Indeed, the CBA already provides such calculations for luxury tax and related purposes.)

While my system would require a good deal of reassessment as players enter new deals, and would make for a specific loss of salary that is far from determined at the point at which the punishment is fixed, it should be possible to craft the details in a workable manner. Players are advised by sophisticated agents who can well explain the significance of these measures. And the overall lesson will be clear: getting caught at an opportune time will not lessen the blow. In many ways this system would function by trying to take away much of the upside of PED use.

But is greater salary loss for better-paid players the right approach? In many ways, the incentives are greater for PED use by younger, more marginal players. But given the greater educational, public relations, and exemplary harm caused by violations by more prominent players, there is ample justification for hitting them hardest. And as supposed by the competitive fairness principle I espoused above, the key is in finding appropriate deterrents for players of different contract classes, not whether they are necessarily equal as between those classes.

The last point, then, relates to the length of time that the tax would have effect. By hitting players with less service time with a longer-running term, the prospect of a serious hit to future earnings would enhance the deterrent effect while avoiding a potentially unfair (or, in other cases, ineffective) hit to early-career, lower-level earnings. On the other hand, players that have already reached free agency are in most cases already at or past their peak earning capacity, and would instead receive a steeper, more immediate blow to their income that would phase out in a relatively shorter time period.

While I won’t get into specifics here, it might make sense for, say, a pre-arb player to receive a six-year tax period with phase-out reductions dependent upon their service class each year. Meanwhile, a six-plus-year veteran might get a three-year ramp-down period.

Additional Measures and Repeat Offenders

In addition to docking salary, a new system could also consider conditioning continued pursuit of a baseball playing career on participation in relatively demanding treatment, education, and/or public service programs. Much like the terms of probation, failure to meet certain requirements could result in a reversion to more severe punishment. Rather than allowing players caught with PED use simply to utilize a self-prescribed PR campaign to return to the game’s good graces, this would require actual, concrete steps to restore their status.

One other way to ensure continuing impact is by addressing the issue of repeat offenders. For instance, the CBA and JDA could contemplate a stock contract clause that applies to players who have been found to have previously violated the JDA, which would be added to current contracts and/or included in future contracts on either a mandatory or a negotiated basis. In addition to enhancing/extending the financial penalties discussed above, inclusion of such a clause could convert guaranteed years to club option years if the player is caught a second time.

As Max Scherzer has argued with respect to Braun: “He still has his contract and he’s still financially gaining from this. You gotta start cutting out contracts. I’m for that.” This would build off of that idea. Of course, it would also re-introduce the problem of having competitive and market impact.

Perhaps more importantly, it would largely work by enhancing financial disincentives that failed to work the first time around. There are diminishing returns, at some point, to going after pocketbooks. Depending upon the tax rates applied, offending players might not have much left to go after. And it is at least worth asking whether, if financial disincentives failed once, other kinds of disincentives are necessary.

For that reason, I think that a better repeat offender provision would be essentially different in kind: a second time violating the JDA would result in a lifetime ban. Matt Holliday is among the players to have advocated this result. The current iteration of the JDA already provides a ban on a called third strike, so the players and league are already prepared for it. Perhaps it is time to make the threat of a lost career a realistic threat for those players who have proven unable or unwilling to abide by a baseline rule of the game.

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MLBTR Originals

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Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep) Interview: Draft Prospect Q&A

By Chuck Wasserstrom | April 26, 2016 at 11:46am CDT

MLBTR continues its Draft Prospect Q&A series in order to give our readers a look at some of the top names on the board in this year’s draft. MLBTR will be chatting with some of the draft’s most well-regarded prospects as they prepare for the 2016 draft on June 9-11; we’ve already spoken with Mercer’s Kyle Lewis, Oklahoma’s Alec Hansen and Louisville’s Corey Ray.

It’s wait-and-see time for Blake Rutherford. The left-handed-hitting centerfielder has been at the top of the prospect ranking charts all year – and figures to be among the first high school players selected in the June draft.

Rutherford, who attends Chaminade College Preparatory School in West Hills, CA, has been known in scout circles for years. In fact, he committed to UCLA as a freshman and played on the international stage last summer – earning a Gold Medal as a member of USA Baseball’s 18U world championship-winning team in Japan.

The 6’2 ½”, 195-pound Rutherford was recently called “the most advanced pure bat in the class, college or high school” by ESPN.com’s Keith Law – who ranks him as the draft’s No. 4 prospect. Rutherford began the spring as Baseball America’s No. 3 prospect, while MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has him coming in at No. 6. Rutherford took some time out to talk with MLBTR:

Chuck Wasserstrom: Your brother, Cole is a first baseman at Cornell University. What have you been learning about college from your brother?

Blake Rutherford: “He’s told me that college is a great experience. Obviously, it’s hard sometimes to juggle both school and baseball, and he’s at a real prestigious school in Cornell. But he’s having a great time … he loves it. He just said it’s a really good experience for him, and he’s happy that he went across the country to go play baseball so that he could get a whole other perspective on life.”

How much of that is going to play in your decision as to whether you’re going to go to UCLA?

“It probably won’t. I’m going to have to make my own decision as to what’s best for me. He made the decision what’s best for him. He got into a good school like Cornell to play baseball. UCLA is another amazing school where you can get a great education. But I’m going to have to wait and see what happens with the draft. I’ll talk to him about it. We’ll talk about everything. When it comes down to it, I’m going to sit down with my family and make a decision that’s best for me – like he did when he made the decision to go to Cornell.”

I want you to describe your game for me. I don’t want a scouting report that I can read online. I want to hear you tell me about your game. So, Blake, how would you describe Blake?

“I would describe my game as someone who can do all things on a baseball field. I truly believe I’m a five-tool player who has a very overall strong game. I feel like the main thing people have always talked about is my hitting, but I really feel like my fielding, my running and my throwing have all taken a huge step this year. I’m also someone who’s super competitive, and I’m not going to stop until I get what I want – which is winning. I’m just someone who’s passionate and loves to play the game, but stays calm and cool during all situations.”

For most readers not in California, you’re a name. What do you do on the field that makes you unique, or at least makes you stand out?

“The thing that makes me stand out is I can try to change the game with my bat, on the base paths or in the field. I can make a diving catch that can save runs or save a game. I can steal bases consecutively; I’ve stolen home a couple times. I have the ability to hit a home run, hit a ball in the gap or get the base hit to get a rally started.”

Your high school was selected to the play in the National High School Invitational last month in North Carolina – where you went 9-for-14 facing some of the elite high school pitchers in this country. What was that experience like?

“That experience was unbelievable. USA Baseball did an amazing job putting us up and getting us around and getting the fields ready. But the competition out there was crazy. Every team had a couple guys on the mound that could deal. A lot of teams had hitters 1-through-9 that could absolutely mash. We knew going into it that we were going to have to play our best games. We did for three games, but in the fourth game we kind of ran out of energy and a couple things went the other way. I was really happy with how we did as a team. My performance individually … I was pretty happy with it because it helped my team win a couple of those games.

Baseball-wise, you’ve played on some pretty big stages already and done some pretty neat things like playing overseas. What stands out for you?

“This last summer, going to Japan (with the 18U USA Baseball national team) – I think that really stands out. We faced some adversity. We lost a couple exhibition games. We lost an earlier game to Japan. So we were kind of down a little bit. Then we came together as a team and bonded. We really got super close and we were able to pull it off. We came from behind in three or four of those games. And then to be able to defeat Japan in their big stadium in front of all their fans for the Gold Medal – that’s something I’ll probably never forget.”

To get there, you needed a 9th-inning rally against South Korea in the tournament opener – and you hit a clutch go-ahead three-run homer.

“We started the inning with a Will Benson walk. And then Hagen Danner had a pinch-hit double to set it up. Second-and-third, no outs … I knew somehow I had to get one run in. Their pitcher had thrown me all fastballs. I fouled a couple off. It got to 3-and-2, and I just got the barrel to the ball and it took off. At first, I didn’t know if it was gone; it’s kind of hard to hit the ball out of the park there. I never saw it go over. I just heard the crowd go crazy. And I saw the runners stop running – so I knew it must have gone out. I remember that I felt happy because we were now winning, but I wasn’t out of control or too excited because I knew South Korea still had to come up to hit – and they had a couple good hitters. Luckily, we were able to get a couple more insurance runs.”

You won the Gold Medal there, and as a result – your team was honored prior to Game Four of the World Series last fall (at Citi Field in New York). How amazing was that?

“That was so exciting. Not only were we at the World Series, but it was the first time the USA players had gotten together (since Japan). So we were just hanging out and loving every second of it. But just going on the field and meeting a lot of the guys and seeing the atmosphere of the World Series. It made all of us want to make it that much more.”

Growing up in Southern California, what are your favorite things to do?

“Obviously, going to the beach … Hanging out with my friends … Anything competitive. We might go hit on the local baseball field or go laser tagging. Me and my brother always grew up super competitive. We have a lot of friends who are competitive. So we ended up playing baseball or football. There was always some activity going on outside.”

Read on for more after the break …

Read more

What about a favorite baseball team?

“The Yankees.”

I was expecting a California team. I’ll ask … Why?

“I was born in New Jersey. I didn’t live there that long, but I was born there, and my favorite player growing up was Derek Jeter. So growing up watching him play, I just loved the Yankees.”

Obviously, different positions, but do you try to pattern yourself after his game in any way?

“I played shortstop until I was in eighth grade, so we played the same position for a long time. From three years old until 14, I played shortstop. Then I made the transition to the outfield. But I do pattern my game after him. The way he carried himself. Obviously, we hit a little different and have different stances, but I don’t think you pattern a mental game any better than Derek Jeter … the way he carried himself in the biggest moments in baseball and really in sports.”

You seem really comfortable doing this interview. Is this really natural for you, or is it because it’s the draft year?

“I’m pretty comfortable with it. When I committed to UCLA as a freshman, I had to do some interviews. It seems like every year, there are more and more interviews. I don’t feel a whole lot of pressure during this situation. I love getting to talk to people and like talking about the whole process and everything that’s been going on. It’s not something that I’ve really been uncomfortable with. It’s something I’m becoming more comfortable with, and I’m grateful. If I do get lucky enough that I am drafted and I sign, the media is a big part of what baseball is.”

Have you allowed yourself to think about the draft, or is it something you’re trying to keep at the back of your brain?

“There’s times when I’ll start thinking about it, then I’m like ‘You can’t start thinking about it. There’s a long season to go.’ But now, my main focus is winning the Mission League championship. There’s times when all of a sudden I’ll start thinking about it. Really, it’s in the back of my head. I’m not going to think about it until June 9. I’ll catch myself at times. Other than that, I’m just going to keep working hard and hopefully make a team want me enough to draft me.”

I’m guessing you do hear what people say. If you do get picked as high as it sounds like you will, is college an option for you? Has that decision been made?

“We honestly haven’t made a decision. We really haven’t talked about it yet. My family and I aren’t going to talk about it until my season ends. And then we’ll decide what the best situation is. I’m just going to have to wait and see what happens. Obviously, I want to play professional baseball. That’s my dream. I think that’s every kid’s dream who really loves baseball. So I really want that. But I have to wait and see what happens.”

– – –

Chuck Wasserstrom spent 25 years in the Chicago Cubs’ front office – 16 in Media Relations and nine in Baseball Operations. Now a freelance writer, his behind-the-scenes stories of his time in a big league front office can be found on www.chuckblogerstrom.com.

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Draft Prospect Q&A Interviews MLBTR Originals Uncategorized Blake Rutherford

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