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Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies officially embarked on a rebuilding effort, but several key trade chips remain with the organization as the season approaches.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Mike Adams (declined club option), Antonio Bastardo, A.J. Burnett (declined player option), Marlon Byrd, Kyle Kendrick, Wil Nieves, Jimmy Rollins

Needs Addressed

This winter, for Philadelphia, addressing needs meant opening up holes on the big league roster in exchange for salary relief and youth. Simply put, none of the team’s trades made sense from the perspective of competing in 2015. To the contrary, each obviously made the team worse in the near term — but all fit in the bigger picture.

Jimmy RollinsIn addition to the public comments of newly-rehired club president Pat Gillick and GM Ruben Amaro Jr., dealing away franchise cornerstone Jimmy Rollins was the surest sign yet that the organization is committed to turning over its roster. Though it had been unclear whether the still-productive veteran would waive his no-trade clause to facilitate a deal, he ultimately chose to accept a move to the powerful Dodgers.

Of course, it was the long-anticipated parting with useful lefty Antonio Bastardo that kicked things off. And by the time he and Rollins were gone, a deal involving the aging Marlon Byrd seemed all but inevitable, and it was not long before he was ticketed for Cincinnati. Of course, that same reasoning seemingly applied to several other key veterans; yet, as discussed further below, that trio is as yet unaccompanied in departing.

Regarding the return on those assets, only time will tell whether Amaro chose wisely. Certainly, none of the players acquired appear to have terribly impactful futures in store. The cumulative haul, however, added a good bit of depth to the organization’s pitching ranks, together constituting the type of move that could pay dividends down the line by enhancing flexibility and limiting the need to pay market rates to fill out the roster.

Rollins, Byrd, and Bastardo were once key components on the active roster, of course, so replacement options had to be found. At short, Freddy Galvis figures to take the majority of the innings, but that just opened a utility role on the bench. The club brought in a variety of infielders on minor league deals to join the mix with the versatile Cesar Hernandez. Another possibility to see time in a utility capacity is Rule 5 pick Obudel Herrera, an infielder in Texas who is learning to apply his speed on the outfield grass.

As for the outfield, Grady Sizemore profiles as a more-or-less direct replacement for many of Byrd’s plate appearances from the corner. Otherwise, the team appears to be staging an open competition among numerous non-roster veterans to take on outfield bench roles. And three of the team’s offseason additions — Joely Rodriguez, Elvis Araujo, and Rule 5 pick-up Andy Oliver — were added to join Mario Hollands in filling the lefthanded relief void in Bastardo’s wake. Rodriguez and Araujo have already been optioned to Triple-A, and Hollands was just shut down with a tendon injury, leaving Oliver looking good to crack the MLB roster as the second lefty.

Likewise, departing starters Kyle Kendrick and A.J. Burnett — the latter of whom declined his $12.75MM club option to sign for nearly $5MM less with the Pirates — left rotation innings to be filled. Philadelphia opted to bring in the durable Aaron Harang and veteran swingman Jerome Williams while rolling the dice on a return to form for the injury-addled Chad Billingsley.

Taken as a whole, it is obviously hard to get excited about the new additions to the Philly roster. It was remarkable that Sizemore was able to return to a big league level of play last year after his long run of injuries, but entering his age-32 season after a more-or-less replacement level 2014, there is little reason to think he can make it all the way back to his former All-Star form. Likewise, Harang seemingly offers good value after a strong effort last year, and could conceivably bring a return at the trade deadline, but he does not offer much in the way of upside.

More might be hoped for from the talented Billingsley, who is still just 30 years old, but he has racked up all of 12 innings since the 2012 season and still needs to answer a lot of questions before he can even get back to the bump in a major league game. It’s a modest risk at $1.5MM, though Billingsley can bump his earnings up an additional $5MM through incentives. Philadelphia would gladly pay that if it can get innings from the veteran righty, who at least offers some possibility of bringing back real value if he can establish himself heading into the summer.

Questions Remaining

Once again, it is worth separating the club’s forward-looking situation from its immediate needs in 2015. With the focus on 2016 — or, perhaps, beyond — we’ll start with the former.

By kicking in a significant amount of cash to accompany Byrd (and, to a lesser extent, Rollins), the large-budget Phils evidenced a willingness to buy down contracts to improve the marketability of their costly veteran player assets. But the divestiture process slowed after early progress, and at present seems all but stalled.

Looking at the books as things stand, a half-dozen players stand out for their experience and cost on an admittedly rebuilding team: Cole Hamels ($96MM over four years + vesting option), Ryan Howard ($60MM over two years + club option), Cliff Lee ($37.5MM over one year + vesting option), Jonathan Papelbon ($13MM over one year + vesting option), Carlos Ruiz ($17.5MM over two years + club option), and Chase Utley ($15MM + three successive vesting options). The star power of that group is undeniable. In both 2008 and 2009, those six players combined to produce better than 25 fWAR (not all with Philadelphia, of course). But those days are long past: in each of the past two seasons, this group has been valued at about 15 fWAR. That’s still plenty useful, of course; then again, Philadelphia owes $105MM to the above-named players for 2015 alone.

Clearly, it was never realistic to expect this organization — fresh off a big new TV deal that should maintain the club’s spending advantages — to part with all of its veterans in one fell swoop. And practicalities such as the size of the deals and a variety of restrictive no-trade clauses also present barriers. Nevertheless, it is fair to question, as many have, whether more could have been accomplished over the offseason. Likewise, one of the two biggest questions currently facing the franchise is whether, when, and how it will cash in those player contracts. (The other? Its ability to acquire and develop a new wave of young talent.)

Hamels, of course, has drawn the most attention; winter rumors involving the Red Sox alone could fill a book. Amaro has repeatedly maintained that he has no intention of simply taking what he can get for the 31-year-old lefty, with reports suggesting that the club is looking for impact prospects and is disinclined to cover much (if any) of the remaining dollars left on the deal.

It is hard to judge this situation without knowing what has been offered, but it seems to me at least that there has been a rush to come down hard on Amaro. Hamels is clearly a valuable asset, in spite of his substantial contract, and the team would be doing little more than bowing to public pressure were it to part with him for young players that it did not believe in. Of course, he is not terribly young, and the risk of injury and/or performance decline cannot be ignored. But Philly can certainly afford Hamels, and it is at least plausible to think that holding him for the trade deadline (or, later this spring) is preferable to taking whatever might currently be on the table.

That has not stopped many from pointing to the recent experience with Lee as a sign that the Phillies are foolish for not auctioning Hamels immediately. The veteran ace seems all but certain to take home his last $37.5MM from the club without bringing any trade value in return — if he comes back to pitch again at all. But every arm is different, and it seems the real lesson from Lee is less about dodging the risk of injury than it is about realizing when the a team’s competition window is closed.

Regardless, losing the possibility of achieving any value from Lee is a big loss for the Phils. Howard and Papelbon could still bring back some cost savings and/or useful pieces. The former could still be a desirable player to roster, especially for an AL team, but is owed so much that the club will need to eat a huge amount of money to deal him even if he does perform. Papelbon, at least, comes with some flexibility at this point, particularly since he has remained quite productive despite a drop-off in his fastball velocity. A big first half could make the 34-year-old an attractive target at the deadline, when relief pitching has by far its greatest value and by which time an acquiring team may be more comfortable with his vesting option. (If he has performed well enough to that point, the idea of a $13MM salary may not be so terrible; if not, the Phillies can drop him from the closer’s role in favor of young fireballer Ken Giles to avoid being on the hook.)

It is at least somewhat interesting that we have heard very little on the possibilities of trades involving the team’s two other highly-paid veterans, Ruiz and Utley. That could be because the front office decided not to trade the pair of holdovers from the organization’s glory days — or, at least, not to market them. On the other hand, both were above-average regulars last year, and could well hold fairly significant appeal to contending clubs this summer.

The relatively younger, relatively less expensive portions of the roster are not without issues, either. Domonic Brown is entering a make-or-break season after following his strong 2013 with a terrible effort last year, though he could start out on the DL with tendinitis in his left Achilles tendon. And fellow outfielder Ben Revere needs to prove that he can hit for a high enough average and play good enough defense to make up for his lackluster on-base and power numbers. Depending upon how things play out, either could conceivably be viewed as a piece of the future, dealt, or non-tendered after the season.

Corner infield also figures to be an area to watch in 2015. Entering his age-25 season, Cody Asche still has a lot to prove at the hot corner but did at least demonstrate that he is not overmatched by MLB pitching. Coming up behind him, of course, is the highly-touted Maikel Franco. Still just 22, Franco seems ticketed for Triple-A to start the year but could push his way onto the roster at some point. He was not dominant in his first run at the highest level of the minors last year, struggled in a brief call-up, and could ultimately be shifted across the diamond to first. Of course, a combination of Howard and Darin Ruf currently occupies that role, so the team’s actions with regard to Howard and the progress of Asche, Ruf, and Franco this year could go a long way toward pointing the future at those positions.

Up the middle, the team is probably in something of a holding pattern. Until we hear otherwise, Utley and Ruiz remained entrenched at second and catcher, respectively. And Galvis will likely keep the seat warm for top prospect J.P. Crawford, who is still just 20 years of age and has not seen action above the High-A level.

On the other side of the equation, the rotation is a huge question mark heading into the season. The focus will remain on Hamels, no doubt, unless and until he is dealt. Behind him, Harang and Williams are at least known quantities, and can be counted on to sop up innings. Billingsley represents a wild card, with Lee a mere lottery ticket at this stage. 25-year-old David Buchanan seems fairly assured of a slot after a sturdy debut campaign last year, though he appears to be a back-of-the-rotation type. The aforementioned Rodriguez, a 23-year-old picked up in exchange for Bastardo, was said to be in the running to take the fifth slot out of camp but was recently sent down. Otherwise, some combination of Kevin Slowey, Miguel Gonzalez, Paul Clemens, and Sean O’Sullivan could be deployed. Top 2014 draft pick Aaron Nola looks like a quick mover, but was not invited to big league camp and probably will not figure into the club’s plans this year unless he advances even faster than expected. All told, there is immense uncertainty in this unit, which has the potential to be downright awful — particularly if Hamels is taken out of the equation.

If there is a clear bright spot at present, it may lie in a bullpen that now features not only the veteran Papelbon, but a rising closer-of-the-future in Ken Giles. It remains to be seen whether the Phils will look to move Giles into the 9th inning this year, but he was rather dominant as a rookie last season and certainly profiles into that role. Jake Diekman, a lefty, also possesses intimidating stuff and could combine with Giles to form a devastating combination for years to come. Justin De Fratus put up impressive numbers last year as well, and will look to establish himself as part of that group. There are several other options, many of them mentioned above, with the two most interesting being Gonzalez and fellow righty Phillippe Aumont. The former has shown little sign of delivering on the three-year, $12MM deal he signed out of Cuba last year, while the latter is the last man standing from the 2009 deal that sent Lee to the Mariners. Now out of options, Aumont will need to produce or will likely end up on the waiver wire.

Deal Of Note

Jimmy Rollins unquestionably belongs on the Phillies’ list of all-time greats after racking up over forty five wins above replacement and an MVP award in 14 seasons with the club. Over his tenure, he compiled a .267/.327/.424 slash with 216 home runs and 453 stolen bases, adding value with his glove all the while.

Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that Rollins will ultimately deserve a place in Cooperstown. He ranks among good company statistically: 20th lifetime in fWAR for a shortstop, nestled amongst several Hall of Famers. A few more quality seasons could put Rollins over the top. Barring a future reunion, however, he’ll make that run wearing another team’s uniform.

Trading a player of that magnitude is never easy, particularly when you have to eat some salary and do not receive a projected impact player in return. While it obviously made sense in theory for the Phillies to cash in a veteran asset, there is some potential for regret here. For one thing, the club still has some ways to go before handing the position over to the heir apparent (Crawford), who must still prove himself in the upper minors and the bigs. For another, any mid-season shortstop needs that arise around the league could look like missed opportunities to have extracted more value.

Ultimately, while Amaro has been panned for his supposed unwillingness to take a fair price for Hamels, his commitment to breaking up the team cannot really be questioned after the Rollins deal.

Overview

The Phillies got started on a future plan this winter, even if it came one year too late. It’s still fairly early in the process, and the near-term looks rather bleak, but it should be recalled that Philadelphia’s rebuilding project will benefit from the team’s substantial spending capacity. That will not only open opportunities to acquire high-level young talent, but should enable the team to ramp up quickly when it sees the light at the end of the tunnel.

Amaro’s decision to exercise patience in moving veteran assets has drawn a good bit of ire, as has become common for most any moves he makes. But the fact is that Philadelphia is not only well-suited to carry large financial obligations while it searches for fair value, but also is likely unwilling to completely gut its big league roster — and risk even greater attendance decline — just to be rid of its most recognizable players. While a spring deal or two remains possible, it could be that the team will wait until the trade deadline, if not beyond, to send out a few more big contracts.

Of course, trades are not the only way to add young talent, and neither is the annual amateur draft. It is at least somewhat notable, then, that the Phillies did not end up landing any of the top international players this offseason, despite the fact that the international market arguably represents the best chance for large-market clubs to gain an edge in the acquisition of young talent. The club was said to be the top pursuer of Yasmany Tomas, but ultimately backed off — perhaps because Gillick was not on board with that signing. Likewise, Philadelphia had at least some interest in Yoan Moncada, but never seemingly entered the bidding picture. Neither was the team one of those that busted its international bonus pool allocations by signing July 2 prospects or other recent Cuban defectors. Amaro has said that he intends to be “very aggressive” in the international arena, and it could still be that the club is set to do just that — while several other big-spending clubs serve out two-year periods of strictly limited international spending.

All in all, it is far too early to judge the organization’s still-fledgling efforts to chart a new course. There is little doubt, particularly in retrospect, that it waited too long to shift its gaze to the horizon — and paid for that by losing the chance of cashing in on Lee. But money talks in baseball, as elsewhere, and Philadelphia still has plenty in its war chest: having opened last year with nearly $180MM in payroll, the club has just $76MM committed for 2016, $34MM on the books for 2017, and only $23.5MM promised beyond that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Terry Ryan On Phil Hughes, Eduardo Escobar

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Phil Hughes was two years away from free agency but both he and the Twins realized that they wanted to hammer out something for the long term.  In December, Hughes agreed to a three-year extension that will pay him $42MM but also allow him to cash in again at the age of 32.

For both sides, the deal appeared to be a win-win.  The Twins locked up Hughes following his best season to date and Hughes will get to hit the open market roughly at the same age as James Shields when he inked a four-year, $75MM deal with the Padres in February.  In a pre-game scrum with the Twins’ beat writers on Monday, I asked GM Terry Ryan if the club ever pushed for a longer deal with the right-hander.

“I think that’s kind of where our comfort level was, he was signed for two and we tacked on more…In essence, I think that’s where we felt pretty comfortable in terms of his age and what he accomplished in his life and all that stuff,” Ryan said.  “We were comfortable with it and so was he.  At the end of the deal he’ll be [32] and that’s getting to an age when you start to have a bit of…concern at that point but then again, that’s how old Ervin Santana is and we signed him to a four-year deal.  He’s a young guy, he’s been around for a long time.  That’s what happens when you sign out of high school and move into the majors quickly.”

Meanwhile, this spring, Eduardo Escobar has presented the Twins with one of those good problems to have.  Escobar’s production at the plate has made some wonder if he could force shortstop Danny Santana back to the outfield, unseating Aaron Hicks.  I asked Ryan about that possibility and he seemed to downplay the chances of that happening.

“No, we’re still going with that path, there’s still competition but Santana is certainly playing well at short.  Paul [Molitor] said he’d like him to be there if he plays well and to this point he has.  Escobar has had a fine spring and I’ve stated this many times.  It’s going to be tough to get him out of that position because he played well last year and he played well this spring,” Ryan said.  “I don’t think I’m prepared right now to tell you who is going to play center and I’m not prepared to tell you who is going to play short, but Hicks is certainly in the mix and Santana is in the mix.”

Later, Escobar saw some time in the outfield in an effort to get him comfortable with playing multiple positions off the bench, as Ryan explained to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other reporters after the game.

Mike Pelfrey “At Peace” With His Pitching, Mets

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In a spring start against the Phillies on Monday, Mike Pelfrey made his final argument for joining the Twins rotation.  Unfortunately for the right-hander, a few bad breaks (including Cody Asche’s two-run smash early in the afternoon) might have punched his ticket for the bullpen.  The veteran has been in a strange spot this spring; while Pelfrey was fighting hard to make the starting five, he also knew there was a good chance that he would be asked to pitch out of the bullpen instead.  One might see the uncertainty as a potential stumbling block in Pelfrey’s preseason preparation, but he refused to make excuses in a postgame chat with reporters.

“It hasn’t been that big of an issue.  It’s all about routine.  I’m not saying I can’t do it, I’ve just never done it.  I’m a competitor, so I’ll make an adjustment if I need to.  At the end of the day, pitching is still pitching,” Pelfrey explained, while adding that he’s “at peace” with what he’s shown over the past few weeks.

Between his seven years with the Mets and his two seasons with the Twins, Pelfrey has made a grand total of four relief appearances.  Of course, during his time in New York, the former No. 9 overall pick had fans dreaming that he would blossom into an ace.  For all we know, Pelfrey could have been on his way to that status in 2012 before he tore his UCL after three solid outings in April.  Later that year, the Mets elected to non-tender Pelfrey rather than wait and see how things would shake out for him after surgery.  I asked Pelfrey if he wishes that he had gotten another chance to put it all together in New York.

“I understood the business side of it, when they non-tendered me the GM [Sandy Alderson] actually called me and said that he appreciates everything I did there. I have no problems with that. I get it,” said the 31-year-old. “Then the Twins called and I have some family in Minnesota and I thought, man, this is a good opportunity, and like I said, I came back early [from Tommy John surgery].  Now is probably the best I’ve felt since I’ve been in Minnesota.”

Pelfrey would rather be gearing up every fifth game, but he says he’ll do just fine pitching out of the pen and he’s prepared to do whatever is asked of him to help the Twins win. However, one has to wonder if he could be helping another team in need of a starter instead.  A contending club with a hole in its rotation could do a lot worse than adding Pelfrey, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins received calls on him once the season starts.

Blaine Boyer And His Personal Entourage

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In March, it’s not uncommon to see over-the-hill veterans in camp looking to extend their careers for just one more season.  By the same token you don’t normally see marketable 30-year-old players call it quits, but that’s what reliever Blaine Boyer did three years ago.  Boyer didn’t fall out of love with baseball, but he was decidedly heartsick and missing his family back home.  When the right-hander told his wife Ginsey that he wanted to retire and potentially leave a mountain of money on the table, she understood the way he felt and the reasons behind his decision.

“I grew up in a household that was broken early.  My parents divorced when I was three and there was just so much inconsistency there,” Boyer told MLBTR in the Twins’ dugout prior to their afternoon contest against the Phillies.  “I’ve had to live with that for a long time.  I was coming and going and I wasn’t consistently there for my boys and my wife and that brought back a lot of what I went through when I was little, so she understood that.  It wasn’t about me not wanting to play baseball anymore, it was much deeper.”

While Boyer’s sabbatical from the game effectively amounted to a boxer’s retirement, he was confident that he was done with baseball for good.  When the pull of the sport was too strong for Boyer to resist, he and his wife came up with an unorthodox game plan: she and their two young sons would travel with Boyer on the road as much as humanly possible throughout the season.

Boyer, 33, feels as though he has found the right balance between being an active parent and doing what he feels he was put on this planet to do professionally.

“The boys, they’re 3 and 4 now, they’re at the point where they’re kind of expecting baseball season and they love it.  My wife especially, she loves the atmosphere of the games, she loves sitting back and eating a hot dog, watching the boys and the seventh inning stretch and it’s just so much fun for her to be their mother watching them watch their daddy,” Boyer said.  “For me, I’m able to experience this as their father and my wife always being with me, it’s kind of like the Boyer family adventure and it’s a blessing.”

For the right-hander, traveling with the family entourage means that he doesn’t have to live with regret in the present or in the future.

“I feel like God has given me the ability to throw a baseball and he hasn’t given that many people this kind of ability.  So, when I have to answer to him about the gifts he has given me, I don’t want to have to say, ’Oh, I’m sorry I wasted that one.’  On top of that, I didn’t want to be 60 years old and thinking what might have been,” Boyer explained.  “So, the whole no regrets mindset and still playing baseball gives me the opportunity stand up and talk about family and talk about God.  Helping people understand my relationship with Jesus Christ is important to me.”

Boyer has taken his family with him all over the map, even internationally in 2013 when he pitched for Japan’s Hanshin Tigers.  Boyer, who bristled at the thought of takoyaki and some of the country’s more adventurous cuisine, experienced a bit of culture shock, but he also fell in love with Japan’s baseball culture and its people.  It also helped that friend Jason Standridge was pitching with Hanshin and, of course, his family was by his side.

For now, the Boyer family adventure has landed the traveling clan in Minnesota, but that could change in a matter of days.  The reliever has a March 30th opt-out clause that can be exercised if he has not been added to the 40-man roster by that time.  Boyer doesn’t know how that will play out yet, but he’ll have his own personal cheering section with him no matter where he winds up.

Justin Smoak Looking Forward To Fresh Start

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Entering his fifth major league season, Justin Smoak knows that he hasn’t accomplished everything that he set out to do when he was regarded as a top prospect.  He also believes, however, that it’s not too late to turn on the jets and fulfill his potential.

“I’ve learned a lot over the years. I think I’ve had some good few weeks, a good month here and there, but I haven’t been the player that I know I can be and what a lot of people thought I was going to be, so it’s just about getting better and doing what I can day in and day out,” Smoak told MLBTR after the Blue Jays topped the Rays 3-0 in Dunedin. “I feel like I’m at a point where I’ve learned what works for me and I’ve learned a lot. I’ve just got to make it happen.”

Just four years ago, Smoak was the centerpiece of a trade package that sent ace Cliff Lee to the Rangers.  Smoak didn’t blossom into the fearsome bopper Seattle hoped he’d become, and last October, the Blue Jays claimed him off waivers.  Soon after, they declined Smoak’s $3.65MM option and non-tendered him, but he knew all along that he was still wanted in Toronto.

“Yeah, that was the first conversation I had with them. That was already a known.  I knew that was going to happen, and I’m still arbitration-eligible, so I just tried to come to a deal and it ended up being what it is now,” Smoak said, referring to his one-year, $1MM pact.

Late last year, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet learned from Smoak’s agent that he turned down more money elsewhere to sign with the Blue Jays.  Predictably, Smoak cited playing time as a reason for his decision, but not the only one.

“Probably more just the opportunity, you know, the opportunity to play and be in this lineup and be in the American League East and some hitter ballparks, that was probably the number one thing for me,” said the 28-year-old.

Toronto could provide a springboard for Smoak to make that money back and then some, but, above all else, he believes the change of scenery will help him get his career back on track.

“In Seattle, I had some good times and I learned a lot, but it’ll be a fresh start in Toronto and, hopefully, I’ll get things going here.”

Teams That Could Spend Heavily Next Winter

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The Nationals, Red Sox, Cubs, and White Sox were the biggest spenders on this year’s free-agent market. While the Nationals’ decision to splurge on Max Scherzer was surprising, it would have been easy to guess, heading into the offseason, that the Red Sox, Cubs and White Sox would throw their weight around.

Next year’s free-agent class is an appealing one, with plenty of big-name starting pitchers (David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello) available, along with position players like Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Ian Desmond. Predicting who will spend in any given offseason is tricky — no one really saw the Padres’ spending spree (which, of course, included plenty of high-profile trades as well as the free-agent signing of James Shields) coming before this winter. But here, presented in order by division, are some teams that could be bidders for some of the best players available in 2015-16.

Orioles. Baltimore has a huge number of contracts coming off the books (Chris Davis, Bud Norris, Matt Wieters, Alejandro De Aza, Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce and several others) and less than $42MM in existing commitments. Their group of arbitration-eligibles will also be more manageable than it was last winter, when they committed to well over $50MM for players in their arb years. The O’s could have needs in the outfield and in their rotation, meaning that they could be a good match for next year’s free-agent class.

Red Sox. It’s rarely wise to count out the Red Sox on the free-agent market, particularly in a year in which they could be without commitments to Porcello, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Justin Masterson and perhaps Clay Buchholz. With the team currently weighing how best to use any number of young players (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart, Eduardo Rodriguez, etc.) in the future, the 2015 season will determine to a great degree what path they pursue in the winter.

Yankees. The Yankees weren’t up to their usual high-spending ways this offseason, and they’ll still have Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and other high-salaried players on the 2016 payroll. But with Hal Steinbrenner seemingly resigned to not being able to get under the luxury-tax threshold in the next couple seasons, they could be big spenders again.

Tigers. With Price, Yoenis Cespedes and other players coming off their payroll, the Tigers could have room to spend — they actually have only five players under contract for 2016, although all of those are for at least $14MM. Perhaps a good 2015 season could encourage owner Mike Ilitch to take another shot at a title before the team gets too old.

Astros. Houston currently only has about $34MM on the books for 2016, and they’ve increased free-agent spending in recent years as they’ve entered the latter stage of their rebuild. They could easily make a big splash next offseason, particularly if they have a winning season this year.

Mariners. The Mariners have been big players in the last two offseasons, adding Robinson Cano, Fernando Rodney and Nelson Cruz, and they could keep spending next year, with Rodney, Hisashi Iwakuma, Austin Jackson and J.A. Happ set to become free agents. The Mariners’ additional arbitration commitments next season will be minimal, and while the salaries of Cano, Cruz and Felix Hernandez are large, they won’t be meaningfully larger in 2016 than they are this year. If Iwakuma and Happ depart, it might make sense for the M’s to pursue one of the big-ticket free-agent starters.

Marlins. One can rarely rule out the possibility that Miami will have a splashy offseason, especially as the Marlins prepare for a season in which they’ll still have their good young core in place. They also have only about $37MM in existing commitments.

Nationals. The Nats stand to lose Zimmermann, Fister, Desmond and Denard Span next season. It’s unclear how they’ll react, but their signing of Scherzer suggests they aren’t going to head quietly into rebuilding mode, particularly given the deferred structure of that contract. The development of upper-level prospects like A.J. Cole and Michael Taylor this season could help determine who they pursue.

Mets. New York still plays in a big market and has less than $58MM on the books next season. They’re likely to have clear needs, particularly in their middle infield. Someone like Desmond, to whom they’ve already been connected, would be an obvious target. Perhaps they’ll bump up spending despite their relatively small recent payrolls.

Cardinals. St. Louis could lose Heyward and Jaime Garcia, and they ought to have payroll flexibility. Spending would make sense as the team tries to give older players like Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta a couple more shots at a championship.

Cubs. The Cubs already have $82MM in commitments for 2016, and the team reportedly held over money from 2014 to spend this past offseason, but perhaps a leap forward in their rebuilding project could encourage further spending.

Dodgers. Their vault seems almost bottomless, and they’ll have tens of millions coming off the payroll as Jimmy Rollins, Brett Anderson, Howie Kendrick and Juan Uribe become eligible for free agency. The Dodgers will also be free of tens more millions in commitments to players who are no longer with the team, including Matt Kemp, Dan Haren and Brian Wilson. It might make sense for them to pursue Desmond or a starter. Zack Greinke exercising his player opt-out would give the Dodgers even more reasons to pursue top-flight starting pitching.

Giants. San Francisco will be out from under significant commitments to Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Marco Scutaro and Jeremy Affeldt, and 2016 is an even year. They could be looking for a starting pitcher, and with the $30MM they won’t be spending on Lincecum and Hudson, they could aim fairly high. A third baseman could also be on the docket, although the infield market isn’t particularly strong.

Padres. Why not? Even after adding Kemp, Shields and a variety of other high-profile players, they still have only about $56MM in commitments for 2016, and their new ownership and management have obvious appetites for gutsy, high-profile moves. They’ll have Upton, Ian Kennedy and Carlos Quentin coming off the books.

Diamondbacks. Arizona has only $32MM in obligations for next season and a new TV deal. The Diamondbacks could be candidates to spend on pitching in particular.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • MLB Trade Rumors Podcast featured host Jeff Todd discussing the Christian Yelich extension with MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Later in the podcast, as a follow up to his St. Patrick’s Day post naming Gerrit Cole as an extension candidate for the Pirates, Jeff and MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth weighed the likelihood of a Cole extension, along with other possible Pittsburgh candidates. A new edition of MLB Trade Rumors Podcast drops every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
  • Zach Links visited Blue Jays camp and spoke with Dioner Navarro and Daniel Norris about how they have handled the trade rumors surrounding them.
  • “I think I’m at that point where I don’t even pay attention anymore, whether it’s here or somewhere else,” Navarro told Zach. “I’m just trying to get ready and let my agent do what he’s gotta do. If he gets something done, he’ll let me know.“
  • “At first it was like, I would never see it, but I would always get text messages from buddies back home like, ’Dude, are you getting traded?’ and they’d send me screenshots of MLB Trade Rumors and I’m like, ’What the heck?’” Norris explained to Zach. “But, at the end of the day, it’s just about throwing a baseball. It’s not like I can say, ’Hey, please don’t trade me, I like your organization.’ So you just have to take whatever is given to you.“
  • Jeff continued his review of the 2014-15 free agent spending by considering the context of multi-year contracts.
  • Tim Dierkes concluded his Out Of Options 2015 series (the 40-man roster players who have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options, per MLBTR sources) with his survey of the AL Central, NL Central, and NL East. Tim also combined the division-by-division breakdowns into one all-encompassing list sorted alphabetically by team.
  • Charlie posited a five-year contract extension worth $55-60MM with a team option and a player/vesting option is a fair deal for the Padres and right-hander Tyson Ross.
  • There were four installments of MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series this week: Cardinals (by Charlie), Giants (by Mark Polishuk), Astros and Twins (both by Steve Adams).
  • Charlie listed the teams who could be big spenders next winter.
  • Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
  • Zach gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.

Daniel Norris Tuning Out Trade Rumors

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Long before people were eyeing Daniel Norris as the next spokesman for Dos Equis beer, he was a wanted man around baseball.  When the Cubs were shopping ace Jeff Samardzija last summer, Theo Epstein & Co. were reportedly targeting Norris as a centerpiece in a potential deal with Toronto.  Ultimately, of course, the Blue Jays stood pat and held on to one of the brightest young pitching prospects in baseball.  Through it all, Norris says he didn’t allow the trade talk to be a distraction, but he couldn’t avoid hearing about it on a daily basis.

“At first it was like, I would never see it, but I would always get text messages from buddies back home like, ’Dude, are you getting traded?’ and they’d send me screenshots of MLB Trade Rumors and I’m like, ’What the heck?’  But, at the end of the day, it’s just about throwing a baseball,” Norris told MLBTR.  “Whoever it’s for, whether it’s for the Blue Jays or for the Cubs, whatever, that’s all I can control. It’s not like I can say, ’Hey, please don’t trade me, I like your organization.’ So you just have to take whatever is given to you.”

Even as speculation mounted about the Blue Jays making a play for Samardzija and the potential pieces that could be involved in a swap, no one from the organization approached the young pitcher to let him know a trade was imminent.  His representatives at Excel Sports Management thought enough of the buzz to keep him apprised, but Norris wasn’t exactly waiting by the phone.

“I got a call from my agent once when I was in Double-A and he said, ’Hey, there’s a possibility you might get traded, it’s out there, I wanted to let you know,’ and I was like, ’Okay, whatever,’ so that’s about the extent of it,” the pitcher explained.

By all accounts, the 21-year-old (22 in April) is the frontrunner to land the final spot in the Blue Jays’ rotation, but he refused to pat himself on the back for what he’s displayed this spring.  With some prodding, he acknowledged that he did well for himself in his Friday night outing when he allowed one run across 5 2/3 innings against the Rays, but he’s determined to improve on his command and delivery as the season draws near.  Norris hopes that if he has everything clicking to start the year, he can direct the conversation away from his fascinating off-field life and back to his pitching.

“I don’t think it’ll be long before the focus is back on my playing again,” Norris said.  “I just want to go out there and take care of business.”

Dioner Navarro Addresses Trade Speculation

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Dioner Navarro was gearing up for his second season as the Blue Jays’ starting catcher when Toronto decided to make a massive splash by signing Russell Martin in November.  Navarro, an offensively-gifted catcher is his own right, was understandably unhappy with the prospect of seeing less at-bats at a new position.  Navarro asked for a trade days after Martin’s arrival and weeks ago he said that the D’Backs and Tigers were among the teams that have called on him.  For now, however, he’s keeping his focus solely on the field.

“No not at this point. I really try to stay away from it now [laughs],” Navarro told MLBTR when asked if he’s heard of additional clubs that have interest in acquiring him. “I already said my feelings about it, whatever happens is going to happen.”

Navarro had a chat with Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos earlier this offseason where both men were able to explain their positions.  In the weeks that have followed, Navarro said that he hasn’t heard from AA or anyone else in the front office about a potential deal.

“No, I just had a conversation early during the offseason and we spoke our piece.  Since Spring Training started he expressed his feelings and I expressed my feelings and we’ll leave it at that.  We don’t need to be saying anything else, we gotta get ready for baseball season.

“I think I’m at that point where I don’t even pay attention anymore, whether it’s here or somewhere else. I’m just trying to get ready and let my agent do what he’s got to do. If he gets something done, he’ll let me know,” the 31-year-old said.

In other words, if a trade is merely days away, Navarro doesn’t know about it.  The catcher also told MLBTR that he hasn’t given any thought to where he might potentially be a good fit.  In the interim, his plan is to do whatever is asked of him, even if he’s not all that gung ho about playing primarily in the DH spot.

“There’s a little bit that I like about playing DH, but, I mean, I love playing behind the plate.  I love being in there every pitch every play, I love playing behind the plate, and I feel like myself behind the plate.  But, right now I want to help my team win.  In this case, if I stay with the Blue Jays I’d love to help them win and help them be in the postseason this year,” said Navarro.

It remains to be seen whether the Tigers, Diamondbacks, or another team will make a move for the well-traveled veteran, who will be a free agent again after the season.  Even if the outside interest is significant, a deal might not materialize for a while as Anthopoulos knows how valuable Navarro can be for a catching-needy team and is demanding a quality return for him.  In the interim, Navarro says he’s ready to give 100%, even if he’s only doing 50% of what he loves at present.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals only made one big move this offseason, but it was a big one indeed, and they’re again in strong position to contend despite an offseason touched by tragedy.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • Lance Lynn, SP: Three years, $22MM (with incentives for playing time that can push the deal to $23.5MM)
  • Jordan Walden, RP: Two years, $6.6MM plus 2017 option
  • Jon Jay, CF: Two years, $10.975MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals’ offseason began in the worst way imaginable, as outfielder Oscar Taveras, a 22-year-old potential star, passed away along with his girlfriend Edilia Arvelo in a car accident in the Dominican. The tragedy shook not only the Cardinals organization but the entire sport, which lost one of its brighter young talents.

Following Taveras’ death, the Cardinals made one dramatic move to replace him in right field, then had an otherwise quiet offseason. That dramatic move came in mid-November, when they shipped Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden.

The Cardinals paid heavily, giving up four years of control for Miller and six of Jenkins in order to get one year of Heyward and two of Walden. (The Cardinals added an extra year of control for Walden when they signed him to a two-year deal with an option in December.) The key to the trade, however, might be that the Cardinals know their pitchers better than anyone else does. Miller is only 24 and still has an electric arm, but his strikeout rate per nine innings alarmingly declined from 8.8 in 2013 to 6.3 last year, and his walk rate rose as well. Miller basically has two pitches (he threw his changeup just 2.4% of the time last year), and his curveball declined in velocity last year, becoming much more hittable in the process. Miller improved down the stretch and is clearly a big-league starter going forward, but if the Cardinals felt comfortable selling low on a pitcher who once looked like an emerging ace, they might well have good reasons.

Jenkins, meanwhile, is still 22 and has twice been rated in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list, but his performance record doesn’t yet match his reputation, and he missed chunks of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with a shoulder injury. He did pitch well in the Arizona Fall League after the trade, and like Miller, he has a terrific fastball. But he’s still at least a year from the Majors and represents plenty of risk.

USATSI_8451808_154513410_lowresGetting a prime season of Heyward in the deal was a coup for the Cardinals, much more so if they can extend him before he becomes a free agent after the season. Heyward is still only 25 and is an elite defensive corner outfielder and a reliable on-base threat. And given his off-the-charts tools and athleticism, he probably still has untapped upside, perhaps a lot of it. He already posted 5.1 fWAR last year while hitting a relatively meager .271/.351/.384; if he can return to, say, his 2012 total of 27 home runs, his $7.8MM salary will make him among the best values in the big leagues.

Walden is no mere throw-in. He dramatically improved his ground ball rate last year, although possibly at the expense of his walk rate. Either way, his blazing fastball should help him strike out more than enough batters to be a successful setup man. Walden’s extension, too, was a smart move, though a small one, for the Cardinals. Between his $2.5MM 2015 salary and his $350K signing bonus, the Cards will pay Walden less in 2015 than the $3MM MLBTR projected, and Walden’s $3.5MM 2016 salary is far less than Cardinals would have had to pay through the arbitration process if he had had a good 2015 season. The Cardinals also got the rights to a reasonable $5.2MM option (or a $250K buyout) for 2017.

Beyond that, the Cardinals didn’t have many holes, and thus had few excuses to spend. The Cards added Matt Belisle to their bullpen after he spent six years in the Rockies organization. Belisle is coming off his worst year in Colorado, posting a 4.87 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 2014, but he posted solid peripherals in four straight seasons before that. The Cardinals won’t have to depend on him to pitch high-leverage innings, and if he doesn’t pitch well, he won’t have cost them much.

They also signed corner infielder and strikeout king Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal. Incumbent first baseman Matt Adams has a career .553 OPS against lefties, and allowing Reynolds to smash southpaws while sitting against righties should enable the Cardinals to get the most bang for their buck. Reynolds himself had a .573 OPS against lefties last season, but an .809 OPS against them for his career. And while he’s had a reputation as a marginal talent for several years now (failing to top a .221 batting average in five straight seasons will do that), he’s never been used as a part-timer, exactly — the Brewers gave him 433 plate appearances last year, his lowest total since he was a rookie. Giving him about 250 plate appearances, most of them against lefties, seems like a good way to harness his power, which remains formidable.

Finally, in addition to the aforementioned Walden contract, the Cardinals signed starter Lance Lynn and center fielder Jon Jay to fairly straightforward extensions that buy out arbitration seasons. Lynn’s $22MM deal buys out all three of what would have been his arbitration years. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz guessed that Lynn would have made something like $4.5MM for 2015, so it isn’t hard to see how Lynn might have reached or topped $22MM in three years total. At the same time, Lynn received a hefty chunk of guaranteed money and didn’t delay his free-agency eligibility.

Jay’s deal is even simpler. He had already been through arbitration once, and he and the Cardinals had already exchanged figures for this offseason, with a midpoint of $4.55MM. The extension essentially merely guarantees him a modest raise for 2016 — slightly smaller than the one he would have received had he gone year-to-year, but that’s to be expected given that the Cardinals agreed to pay his salary for both years up front. That point might seem significant to a player who briefly lost his everyday job to Peter Bourjos last year, although perhaps it shouldn’t be. Jay is, at this point, probably slightly undervalued. Particularly in the 2013 season, Jay developed a reputation for being defensively erratic. For his career, though, that’s not the story the numbers tell, and his OBP-heavy offensive game is consistently strong.

Questions Remaining

Not many. The Cardinals remain a strong team from top to bottom, and attempts to find their weaknesses mostly amount to nit-picking. The team’s fifth starter job is currently unsettled, although Marco Gonzales, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia all have upside. (The Cardinals might be leaning toward Garcia despite his long history of arm issues, since they can most easily keep all three pitchers in the organization by sending Gonzales back to the minors and Martinez to a relief role.) The Cards’ bullpen isn’t outstanding behind Trevor Rosenthal, particularly given the loss of Pat Neshek, but the additions of Walden, Belisle and minor-league signee Carlos Villanueva could all help, and hard-throwing rookie Sam Tuivailala could be a wild card. Also, Martinez would help the Cards’ bullpen depth tremendously if he were to lose out on the rotation job.

Beyond that, the questions, such as they are, are broader. The Cardinals’ core is good, but much of it is somewhat old. The Cards will lean on a great catcher (Yadier Molina) who will be 33 in July, a very good shortstop (Jhonny Peralta) who will be 33 in May, a great 33-year-old starting pitcher (Adam Wainwright), and good players in Matt Holliday and John Lackey who are even older. There are certainly scenarios in which several of those players falter at once this season, and the Cardinals are far worse than expected. The Cardinals’ depth behind Molina is one weakness that could become a problem if he gets hurt, as he did last year when he missed several weeks with a thumb injury. A minor deal with the Orioles for catcher Michael Ohlman might not help much, either, at least not right away, since Ohlman hit sparingly even at Double-A last year.

Deal Of Note

Last year, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined the sorts of minor-league free agents teams typically sign to big-league deals. Such players are typically around 27 when they sign, and within that context, the Cardinals’ signing of 28-year-old infielder Dean Anna to a big-league deal fits right in. Typically, though, players who receive such deals are former top prospects or hard throwers. Anna, in contrast, is a former 26th-round pick who had to scrap for playing time even in the low minors. He’s also coming off a .207/.325/.308 season at the Triple-A level, making him an even more unlikely candidate for a big-league deal.

What Anna does have is versatility (he can handle shortstop, second and third, making him a legitimate utility infielder) and on-base ability. Anna posted a .410 OBP at Triple-A Tucson in 2013 and has a .380 career minor-league OBP. Aside from a handful of games with the Yankees last season, Anna has no big-league track record, so the Cardinals’ Major-League deal amounts to a relatively cheap gamble that Anna’s minor-league track record can translate to the Majors. They can control him for up to five more years after this one if it does.

At this point, though, it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll make the team, as he’s played sparingly in Spring Training. Another unproven infielder acquired in a relatively low-profile deal, Ty Kelly, has impressed observers. Like Anna, Kelly has a great track record of providing OBP in the high minors, although Kelly doesn’t play shortstop, instead spending most of his time at second and third and in the outfield corners.

In any case, if Anna doesn’t make the squad, he could end up providing good depth at Triple-A. He might prove to be valuable if Peralta gets hurt or second baseman Kolten Wong doesn’t maintain the improvements he made in 2014.

Overview

Despite an aging group of core players, the Cardinals have an enviable blend of veterans, good players in their primes (Heyward, Lynn, Matt Carpenter) and youngsters with upside (particularly Michael Wacha and Martinez, but also Wong, Gonzalez, and outfield prospect Stephen Piscotty, who provides a solid Plan B if Holliday is out for an extended period). That diversification of assets should limit their downside — there’s a lot of talent here, and it’s spread fairly around the diamond and across the spectrum of player ages. They’re a bit too heavily weighted toward veteran talent, although that’s not necessarily surprising for a franchise that’s had seven straight winning seasons (and just lost its highest-upside young player in tragic circumstances). And the fact that most of their long-term contracts aren’t backloaded keeps them flexible.

With that in mind, the Cardinals can watch the season unfold, and use the trade market to address any weaknesses that emerge. They can also plan for the future. Lackey and Heyward are eligible for free agency after this season. While an extension for Lackey doesn’t look likely, signing Heyward, already a very good player who still has youth and upside, could become a priority. If Heyward departs, the Cardinals will likely have the flexibility to make a splash in next offseason’s free-agent market, if they so desire.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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