Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Out Of Options 2015

By | at

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors.  I’ve included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources.  For context on each team’s situation, please check out my six-part series.

Angels

Drew Butera, Johnny Giavotella, Cesar Ramos

Astros

Chris Carter, Alex Presley, Luis Valbuena, Sam Deduno

Athletics

Fernando Abad, Jesse Chavez, Sam Fuld, Evan Scribner, Stephen Vogt

Blue Jays

Scott Barnes, Brett Cecil, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Drabek, Liam Hendriks, Todd Redmond, Justin Smoak, Steve Tolleson, Danny Valencia

Braves

Zoilo Almonte, Juan Jaime, Josh Outman

Brewers

Mike Fiers, Hector Gomez, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Jimenez

Cardinals

Sam Freeman, Pete Kozma

Cubs

Drake Britton, Welington Castillo, Felix Doubront, Neil Ramirez, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Jacob Turner, Travis Wood

Diamondbacks

Randall Delgado

Dodgers

A.J. Ellis, Chris Hatcher, Juan Nicasio

Giants

Erik Cordier, George Kontos, Jean Machi, Ehire Adrianza, Yusmeiro Petit, Gregor Blanco, Travis Ishikawa

Indians

Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Nick Hagadone, Zach McAllister, Brandon Moss

Mariners

Dustin Ackley, Erasmo Ramirez, Justin Ruggiano

Marlins

Mike Dunn, Brad Hand, Adeiny Hechavarria, Bryan Morris

Mets

Wilmer Flores, John Mayberry, Jenrry Mejia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Cesar Puello, Ruben Tejada, Carlos Torres

Nationals

Xavier Cedeno, Sandy Leon, Jose Lobaton, Tyler Moore

Orioles

Brad Brach, Zach Britton, David Lough, Brian Matusz, Jimmy Paredes, Travis Snider, Chris Tillman

Padres

Yonder Alonso, Tim Federowicz, Tyson Ross, Dale Thayer, Alex Torres

Phillies

Cesar Hernandez, Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus, Freddy Galvis, Andy Oliver

Pirates

Pedro Florimon, Stolmy Pimentel, Vance Worley, Jeff Locke, Arquimedes Caminero, Radhames Liz, Mark Melancon, Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, Pedro Alvarez

Rangers

None

Rays

Chris Archer, Jeff Beliveau, Brad Boxberger, Alex Colome, Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, Jake McGee, Rene Rivera, Brandon Guyer

Red Sox

Anthony Varvaro, Daniel Nava

Reds

Jason Bourgeois

Rockies

Christian Friedrich, DJ LeMahieu, Michael McKenry, Tyler Chatwood

Royals

Louis Coleman, Jarrod Dyson, Erik Kratz

Tigers

Jose Iglesias, Hernan Perez, Andrew Romine

Twins

Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Jordan Schafer

White Sox

Maikel Cleto, Conor Gillaspie, Javy Guerra, Dan Jennings, Hector Noesi

Yankees

Austin Romine, Esmil Rogers, Ivan Nova, David Carpenter

Out Of Options Players: NL Central

By | at

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I’ve included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources.  Today, we’ll take a look at the NL Central.

Cubs: Drake Britton, Welington Castillo, Felix Doubront, Neil Ramirez, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Jacob Turner, Travis Wood

Wood, Turner, and Tsuyoshi Wada were expected to battle for the Cubs’ fifth starter job this spring.  Turner has been shut down due to a flexor strain and bone bruise on his elbow, however, so the Cubs can defer making a decision on him since he won’t even be throwing again until mid-April.  Wood seemed like a winter trade candidate, but Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald explains that with the Cubs’ depth thinning out, he’s the favorite to become the fifth starter.  That would force Edwin Jackson into the bullpen, unless the Cubs offload him or even eat his remaining $22MM.

Of the Cubs’ seven relievers, righties Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Jason Motte, and Justin Grimm seem locked in.  According to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago last week, the minor league deal for lefty Phil Coke is a “mere formality,” meaning he’s expected to break camp as the team’s primary southpaw reliever.

That leaves one potential spot for Jackson, out of options lefties Britton and Doubront, and a host of other candidates including Wada if his groin injury proves minor.  Doubront has been hit hard in his two spring outings, while Britton has tallied five scoreless innings.  Injuries may clear up the logjam, but something has to give by the April 5th opener.

There’s also last year’s starting catcher Castillo, pushed aside by winter acquisitions Miguel Montero and David Ross.  Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune wrote about Castillo’s situation a few days ago, noting that Arismendy Alcantara’s versatility could allow the Cubs to open the season with three catchers.  That might be posturing on the Cubs’ part, however, since the team would be better-served trading Castillo for a fair return.

Reds: Jason Bourgeois

Bourgeois will miss four to six weeks with a fractured shoulder, so he’ll be starting the season on the DL.

Brewers: Mike Fiers, Hector Gomez, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Jimenez

Gomez and Jimenez are hoping to earn the team’s two utility infield jobs, wrote Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel earlier this month.  Two days ago, Haudricourt tweeted he’d be stunned if Jimenez doesn’t make the team.  Luis Sardinas is in the mix as well, but he may face an uphill battle since he has options remaining.

Jeffress appears to have a spot locked up in the Brewers’ pen, wrote Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak yesterday.

Pirates: Pedro Florimon, Stolmy Pimentel, Vance Worley, Jeff Locke, Arquimedes Caminero, Radhames Liz, Mark Melancon, Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, Pedro Alvarez

Worley and Locke are competing to be the Pirates’ fifth starter, with Worley appearing to hold an edge after Locke was knocked around Tuesday.  The Pirates seem willing to put one of them in the bullpen, but a trade is also possible.

Pimentel, Caminero, and Liz are vying for spots in the Pirates’ bullpen.  Charlie Wilmoth of MLBTR and Bucs Dugout feels it wouldn’t be a surprise for all three to make the team, even if it means optioning superior relievers John Holdzkom and Jared Hughes.  Liz, at least, seems a good bet to get a roster spot after signing a big league deal out of Korea during the offseason.  In an online chat yesterday, Pirates beat writer Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opined that Pimentel seems the most likely of the three to get dropped.

As Wilmoth wrote in February, it’s hard to see where Florimon fits on this team.  Perhaps the waiver claim made sense in November, but he seems likely to find his way off the 40-man soon.

Cardinals: Sam Freeman, Pete Kozma

MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch looked at the situations of Freeman and Kozma in January.  Freeman, a 27-year-old lefty reliever, has continued this spring to exhibit the control problems that have plagued his Major League career.  He’s a trade candidate.  Kozma, known for his defense, appears to be playing his way into making the team, wrote Ben Humphrey of Viva El Birdos yesterday.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By | at

The Astros escaped the cellar in the AL West last season, though they did so due largely to a barrage of injuries on what was expected to be a contending Rangers team. Nevertheless, Houston was a much-improved club in 2014, and they’ll likely be even better in 2015 following an active offseason.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

No bullpen in baseball recorded a higher ERA than Houston’s alarming 4.80 mark last season, so it’s hardly a surprise that GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff went hard after relief pitching this winter. The Astros added a pair of right-handed arms in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. Together, the duo consists of one of the game’s most consistent setup men over the past four years (Gregerson) and an upside play based on a somewhat surprising 2014 breakout (Neshek). Gregerson has made at least 61 appearances and logged an ERA of 2.75 or better in each of the past four seasons, and Neshek improved on solid numbers from 2012-13 to record a 1.87 ERA and a brilliant 7.56 K/BB ratio. The Astros were also reportedly the highest bidder for Andrew Miller at $40MM over four years, but the left-hander took $4MM less to join the Yankees’ bullpen. Instead, the ’Stros eventually landed Joe Thatcher on a minor league deal to give them a potential bargain from the left side. Waiver claim Will Harris and his strong peripherals give them a promising candidate from the right side.

Jed Lowrie

Though there are quite a few names in that last paragraph, that’s only a fraction of the pitchers that were contacted by the Astros this offseason. Houston was said to have at least some dialogue with nearly every notable relief arm on the market at some point, even entering the mix for David Robertson before he landed with the White Sox.

Turning to the infield, there was a clear need on the left side. Jonathan Villar broke camp as the team’s shortstop in 2014, but his .209/.267/.354 batting line led him back to Triple-A and resulted in Marwin Gonzalez and Gregorio Petit receiving playing time at shortstop as well. Whether the Astros were underwhelmed by the play of that trio or simply considered Jed Lowrie too good a value to pass up, the team struck a three-year deal to bring Lowrie back to Houston after a pair of seasons in Oakland. Lowrie will now join a lineup that features Chris Carter — one of the very men for whom he was traded in that Houston/Oakland swap (Brad Peacock and Max Stassi were also in the deal). Lowrie’s defense isn’t great, and he struggled with the bat in 2014, but he’s typically been an above-average hitter when healthy. At just over $7MM annually, the price seems plenty reasonable, even if he’ll eventually have to shift positions if and when Carlos Correa is ready for the Majors (perhaps as soon as 2016).

Third base was a black hole for the 2014 Astros, as Matt Dominguez and Petit saw all of the time at the position and combined to hit a miserable .212/.255/.321. The Astros were clearly aware of this fact and not necessarily keen on giving Dominguez another crack, as the team acquired Luis Valbuena in the Dexter Fowler trade with the Cubs. Valbuena can play second or third, but with Jose Altuve entrenched at the keystone, Valbuena seems destined for third base duty, pushing Dominguez to a bench role or possibly making him trade bait (he’s still just 25).

The Fowler trade filled one hole but potentially created another, thinning out the club’s outfield depth. However, the Astros likely viewed that move as an opportunity to acquire a commodity where the demand outweighed the supply — the free agent third base market offered little — in exchange for a commodity whose supply outweighed their own demand. Houston signed Colby Rasmus just days after trading Valbuena, likely indicating that they feel Rasmus can provide similar value to Fowler at a cheaper price ($8MM), whereas there were no suitable free agent options to fill their void at the hot corner.

Valbuena wasn’t the only piece they added in that deal, though. Dan Straily’s inclusion in the trade gives the Astros some rotation depth and a relatively young arm with huge minor league strikeout numbers that could push for a rotation spot as early as this season. The team added further depth in the rotation when it signed Roberto Hernandez to a minor league deal with a semi-steep base salary (at least for a minor league deal) of $2.65MM.

Some additional rotation depth was necessary, as the team had flipped Nick Tropeano for the defensively gifted Hank Conger. They’d also eventually deal well-regarded pitching prospect Mike Foltynewicz and righty Andrew Thurman in a trade to land Evan Gattis from Atlanta. Conger gives the Astros an upgrade from a defensive standpoint, while Gattis provides an emergency option at catcher plus depth in left field, at first base and at DH. In Gattis, Springer and Chris Carter, the Astros have a trio of right-handed sluggers that could mash 30 homers apiece in the middle of their lineup. That power is especially dangerous in Houston, given the 315-foot short porch down the left field line at Minute Maid Park.

Questions Remaining

The Astros enjoyed two of baseball’s most unexpected breakouts in their rotation last season, as both Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh pitched at All-Star caliber levels and now look like vital (and controllable) rotation cogs going forward. They’ll be joined by veteran Scott Feldman, who can soak up some solid innings in the middle of the rotation. Beyond that, however, the picture is muddled. Peacock won’t be ready to start the season (not that he’d have been guaranteed a spot anyhow), leaving the remaining two spots to be divided between Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, Hernandez and Straily.

It’s understandable, then, that the team tried to bring Ryan Vogelsong in for some stabilization, but the deal between the two sides fell through after Vogelsong took a physical. Vogelsong expressed some distaste for the Astros organization after the fact, and reports since then have indicated that the team lowered their offer after seeing red flags in his exam. Vogelsong would ultimately return to the Giants to serve as a long reliever, perhaps indicating that his medicals did indeed pose some cause for concern.

The remade bullpen now looks stronger with Gregerson and Neshek joining Chad Qualls atop the depth chart, but there’s still a good deal of uncertainty beyond that grouping and lefty Tony Sipp. In particular, the team lacks a solidified second left-handed option, although a return to form for Thatcher would put that concern to rest and make his signing look like a shrewd move. Hernandez or Deduno could serve as a long man if they don’t make the rotation, but the Astros seem likely to have two right-handed slots filled by a combination of unproven arms such as Josh Fields, Jake Buchanan, Will Harris and perhaps non-roster invitee James Hoyt. It should be noted that both Harris and Fields possess highly favorable peripheral stats, so a breakout for either wouldn’t come as a significant surprise. Nonetheless, neither has established himself as a reliable bullpen arm in the Majors to this point.

While the Astros are rife with raw power up and down their lineup, they’ll likely fall victim to strikeouts at one of the highest rates in baseball. Only the Cubs’ 24.2 percent team strikeout rate was worse than Houston’s 23.8 percent mark last season, and they’ve compounded the problem by trading for Gattis and swapping Fowler (21.4 percent strikeout rate in 2014) for Rasmus (33 percent). Valbuena and Dominguez, for those wondering, struck out at nearly identical respective clips of 20.7 and 20.6 percent last year.

So, while Houston will have its share of high-scoring games due to its powerful lineup, the combination of Rasmus, Carter, Springer, Gattis, Jason Castro and possibly Jon Singleton could lead to quite a few unsightly days at the plate — particularly against elite strikeout pitchers.

The defense, to some extent, could also be an issue. Lowrie isn’t a gifted defender at shortstop, and while Rasmus has had defensive value in the past, he was well below-average in 2014. Perhaps better health will remedy that, but until it’s demonstrated on the field, one can’t help but wonder. The main reason that Atlanta was so willing to part with Gattis was that they feel he’ll eventually be unable to continue catching due to his size and is also a terrible outfield defender. In Houston, the catching will be handled by Castro and Conger, leaving Gattis without much of a position and leaving the team with a potential dilemma at first base/DH if Singleton, Gattis and Carter are all healthy and productive by the end of Spring Training. Gattis could play left field, but that would negate a good deal of his offensive value. Playing Rasmus and Marisnick in left and center would be a significant defensive upgrade.

Still, that would create a logjam at first base/DH, which is likely the reason that ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that teams in need of offense are monitoring the Astros; Stark reported this week that Carter could become available should Singleton win the job at first and Gattis remains healthy.

Deal of Note

Neshek’s contract with the Astros would’ve seemed borderline unthinkable a year ago at this time, as the submariner was in Spring Training on a minor league deal with the Cardinals. His incredible 1.87 ERA and 7.56 K/BB ratio in last year’s All-Star campaign was an excellent story and led to the first multi-year deal of his career.

While we don’t know exactly what Rafael Soriano will sign for this offseason, he seems extremely likely to fall shy of Neshek’s deal. Meanwhile, an established closer like Francisco Rodriguez barely topped Neshek’s guarantee despite having an extra year on his contract and being two years younger. Neshek also topped Jason Grilli and stacked up favorably with fellow Meister Sports Management client Sergio Romo, despite Romo’s stronger track record.

The Neshek contract this offseason serves as a reminder to fans who may have rolled their eyes at minor league deals for unheralded players this past offseason; these deals rarely turn out like Neshek’s, but a select few seem to go this way each offseason, and the success experienced can lead to tremendous rewards for the team in 2015 and the player the following winter.

Overview

The Astros come away from the 2014-15 offseason with a remade bullpen and an improved left side of the infield, both of which should help to repair two of the team’s biggest flaws from the 2014 season. While the rotation looks to be a question mark still, it’s not out of the question that top prospect and former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel could surface in the Majors and help solidify that group. Appel looked lost for much of 2014, but rumors of his demise were tremendously overstated, as he left a dismal Class-A stint behind him to post a 3.69 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 39 Double-A innings. Appel ranks 35th or better on the Top 100 prospect lists of Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, MLB.com and Fangraphs, where he peaked at No. 18.

Owner Jim Crane has expressed the ambitious goal of reaching the playoffs this season, and while many skeptics will scoff at the notion, the Astros have a wealth of interesting young players in addition to several offseason pickups that could help them remain competitive in the AL West. While they’re certainly not a favorite to do so, some combination of sustained success from Keuchel and McHugh plus steps forward from Springer and Singleton, along with rebounds from Castro, Lowrie and Rasmus, could make the club more dangerous than most are willing to expect.

The Astros made a 19-game improvement from 2013 to 2014, and they could take a step forward toward the .500 mark in 2015 if everyone stays healthy. By 2016, enough members of the team’s vaunted farm system — including Correa, Appel, Springer and Singleton — may have graduated to the Major League level that the Astros could make a push toward a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Out Of Options Players: NL East

By | at

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I’ve included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources.  Today, we’ll take a look at the NL East.

Braves: Zoilo Almonte, Juan Jaime, Josh Outman

The Braves signed Almonte, 25, to a Major League deal in November.  According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, he’s competing for the primary backup outfielder role with Todd Cunningham and Eury Perez.  If Nick Markakis is not ready for the start of the season, that could improve Almonte’s chances of making the team.

The Braves inked Outman to a big league deal in January.  Outman seems likely to be a part of the team’s Opening Day bullpen, even though they’ve also got lefty relievers  James Russell and Luis Avilan.  Avilan, perhaps, could be a trade candidate this month.  Jaime is pretty well buried on the team’s bullpen depth chart and has had a couple of rough spring outings, so he’s probably not long for the team or at least its 40-man roster.

Marlins: Mike Dunn, Brad Hand, Adeiny Hechavarria, Bryan Morris

Dunn and Morris have two of the Marlins’ seven bullpen spots locked down.  Tom D’Angelo of the Palm Beach Post wrote on Sunday that Hand is competing for one of two remaining bullpen jobs, and could slot in as the team’s long reliever.  One complication is Rule 5 pick and fellow southpaw Andrew McKirahan, who would have to be returned to or at least acquired from the Cubs if he doesn’t make the team.  Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald wrote about that situation on Sunday.

Mets: Wilmer Flores, John Mayberry, Jenrry Mejia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Cesar Puello, Ruben Tejada, Carlos Torres

Mayberry definitely has a spot, and Nieuwenhuis is likely to make the Opening Day roster as well.  Puello, however, figures to find his way off the Mets’ 40-man roster soon.

Phillies: Cesar Hernandez, Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus, Freddy Galvis, Andy Oliver

De Fratus is expected to make the Phillies’ bullpen.  Oliver being out of options is irrelevant, because he’s a Rule 5 pick from the Pirates.  As MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted earlier this month, the Phillies are in good position to stash a project like Oliver in their bullpen all year.

This could be the end of the road for Aumont, who is the last player remaining from the December 2009 deal in which the Phillies sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners.  The 26-year-old righty has been hit hard in four outings this spring.  The team is considered to have three open bullpen spots, according to Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer, so at least Aumont has some openings.

Galvis is the team’s starting shortstop after the offseason trade of Jimmy Rollins.  Hernandez is looking to be the backup middle infielder, and he appears to be in good position to win that job.

Nationals: Xavier Cedeno, Sandy Leon, Jose Lobaton, Tyler Moore

Will the Nationals break camp with a third lefty reliever behind Matt Thornton and Jerry Blevins?  Cedeno could fill that role, though Mets reporter Adam Rubin of EPSNNewYork.com hears he’s unlikely to make the team and could be available in trade.

With Lobaton expected to serve as the backup to catcher Wilson Ramos, it’s hard to see how Leon can make the team.  Moore, 28, is vying for a chance to serve as a backup at first base and left field.  That might become more likely if Jayson Werth or Nate McLouth has to start the season on the DL, but there’s no indication of that at present.  Aside from Lobaton, all of the Nationals’ out of options players look like trade candidates this spring.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

By | at

The Twins have spent four years in the cellar of the AL Central, but they’ve begun to spend on free agents in the past two offseasons in anticipation of the arrival of some of the game’s most highly touted prospects.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

  • None

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Twins finished seventh in the Majors in runs scored last season and batted a combined .254/.324/.389, making them one of 10 teams in baseball to outproduce the production of a league-average hitter, per Fangraphs’ wRC+ metric (102). However, while scoring runs wasn’t a problem for Minnesota, preventing them certainly was, as their pitching and defense were each among the league’s worst.

Torii HunterThe Twins explored multiple options on the starting pitching market this offseason before eventually agreeing to a four-year, $54MM contract with Ervin Santana. Minnesota had interest in Santana last year in Spring Training, so it wasn’t a shock to see them pursue the righty again. Santana should provide the team with 200-ish league-average or slightly better innings — something it has been lacking in recent years. That’s much the same role that Ricky Nolasco was supposed to fill when he was signed prior to 2014, but Santana has a superior track record and has already demonstrated recent success in the American League.

Though the Twins have a number of outfield prospects rising through the system, none are quite ready to make the leap to the Majors just yet. Understandably then, they sought to find a stopgap, and the Twins made a sentimental play to bring back franchise favorite Torii Hunter on a one-year deal. The 39-year-old Hunter was the Twins’ first-round pick back in the 1993 draft, and he emerged as a star and a core player for the Twins in the mid-2000s as the team perennially contended for the AL Central crown. Hunter can still hit — .286/.319/.446 last year — but his defense has deteriorated significantly. Though he’s on a one-year deal, he’s expressed an openness to returning beyond this season if he’s still productive. With top prospect Byron Buxton fast approaching the Majors alongside other well-regarded prospects like Eddie Rosario, I would think that Hunter may have to accept a reduced role, perhaps as soon as 2016, in order for that to occur.

The Twins also quietly added Tim Stauffer on a one-year deal with a reasonable $2.2MM base salary. He’ll compete for a spot in the rotation, but the likelier outcome is that Stauffer will end up in the bullpen to pick up some of the innings that Jared Burton, now with the Yankees, had accounted for in previous seasons. (The Twins elected to buy out Burton’s $3.6MM option rather than retain him.)

For a team that finished in last place once again, this is a relatively brief “Needs Addressed” section, but the Twins will likely be counting on their farm system to fill in many of the holes around the roster. Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Josmil Pinto, Trevor May and Alex Meyer are all eventually to contribute in varying capacities this season. Top prospects Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios could also debut in 2015 as well.

Questions Remaining

The Twins have spent aggressively on the starting pitching market over the past two offseasons, giving a combined $138MM to Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Hughes and now Santana. While they struck gold on Hughes, who set the Major League record for single-season K/BB ratio last year (11.63) and parlayed that into a three-year, $42MM extension, Nolasco and Pelfrey contributed nothing in 2014. It remains to be seen whether Santana will live up to his deal, but certainly given the expenditure they’ve put forth, one would hope their rotation would have a better outlook. As it is, however, Hughes, Santana and former first-round pick Kyle Gibson will likely be joined by Nolasco and one of Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Alex Meyer or Trevor May in the fifth slot. While there’s some depth there and Meyer has top-of-the-rotation upside, the unit as a whole looks underwhelming.

As I opined in my Offseason Outlook for the Twins, perhaps the best way to help the pitching may have been to improve an outfield defense that ranked as one of the worst in baseball last season (-36.2 UZR, -50 Defensive Runs Saved). Someone such as Peter Bourjos or Craig Gentry, for instance, could have had their relatively light bat hidden in an otherwise-serviceable lineup while drastically improving the defense. The Twins went another route by bringing back Hunter, who, as mentioned before, has plenty of life in his bat but has seen his once-sterling defensive reputation tarnished with age. Hunter was worth -18 runs per both UZR and DRS last season, so the Twins will again employ a pair of range-challenged corner outfielders in Hunter and Arcia, who will shift to left field with Hunter taking right.

Between them will likely be Aaron Hicks, a former first-round pick and Top 30 prospect that has yet to pan out at the plate or in the field. Though Hicks possesses an incredible throwing arm and is fleet of foot, poor route-running has led to sub-par defensive marks in center field. This will be the now-25-year-old Hicks’ third crack at establishing himself after originally skipping Triple-A to open the 2013 season as the team’s center fielder. He’s batted just .201/.293/.313 in 150 big league games. Hicks could be pushed for playing time by Jordan Schafer, who impressed the Twins after being claimed on waivers last year. Schafer is a lock to make the team either as a fourth outfielder or in a more regular role, but he, too, is a former top prospect that has never realized his offensive potential.

The Twins’ bullpen will be anchored by Minnesota native Glen Perkins, though the 32-year-old ended last season with a minor elbow issue that caused his ERA to balloon in the final month. That’s cleared up now, but he’s been battling an oblique problem in Spring Training as well. It seems minor enough, but the Twins’ bullpen group is thin on established arms. Casey Fien has been nothing short of brilliant in the first half of each of the past two seasons before wilting in each second half, but he’ll be the primary setup man. I’d imagine that Stauffer will take one bullpen slot, and Brian Duensing, who had struck me as a non-tender candidate, will be back in the fold from the left side. If manager Paul Molitor deploys him primarily against southpaws, he should be effective. Pelfrey seems likely to end up in the bullpen as well if he doesn’t win the final rotation spot.

Beyond that mix, names like Michael Tonkin, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Pressly, Aaron Thompson, A.J. Achter, Logan Darnell and Lester Oliveros will get looks. Non-roster invitee Blaine Boyer would seem to have a good chance as well following a nice comeback effort with the Padres last year. Still, it’s a thin group, and with Perkins ailing somewhat, I wouldn’t be surprised if Scott Boras were trying to sell GM Terry Ryan on Rafael Soriano to come in and solidify the bunch.

For all of the questions elsewhere on the roster, the infield is relatively set. The Twins will hope that better health means a rebound to some degree for Joe Mauer. Brian Dozier emerged as the team’s regular second baseman over the past two seasons and may yet land a long-term deal this spring. Danny Santana had an excellent rookie season playing mostly center field, but he’ll be back at his natural shortstop in 2015. He won’t repeat his preposterous .405 BABIP, but his strong line-drive rate and speed do suggest that he can maintain a mark well above the league average in that regard. Trevor Plouffe continues to see year-to-year improvement and was quietly worth 3.5 fWAR/4.0 rWAR last season. Still, he may be a placeholder until Sano’s massive bat surfaces in the Majors.

Kurt Suzuki signed a two-year, $12MM extension last summer, but as a slow-footed catcher, his .310 BABIP will be tough to repeat, so he may see some regression at the plate. If Pinto hits like he did in 2013 rather than in 2014, the two may eventually flip. Vargas will be the team’s everyday DH after an impressive .274/.316/.456 debut, but he’ll need to refine his approach and improve his abysmal 63-to-12 (5.25) K/BB ratio.

The biggest question surrounding the Twins may simply be if/when Buxton, Sano, Meyer and possibly Berrios arrive in 2015. That group of lauded top prospects is widely believed to be a quartet of potential core players, and Twins fans have long been awaiting their arrival.

Deal of Note

Though the Twins were willing to give Santana three years and $30-33MM this time last year, Santana preferred to bet on himself and take a one-year deal in the NL with the hope of securing a better deal a second time around. (Had he taken the Twins’ offer, he’d have essentially given away the 2015-16 seasons for $16-19MM total.) The Twins reeled him in this time around, however they did so by offering an extra year and another $20MM or so despite the fact that Santana is now a year older.

Santana was often used as an example of why players should accept qualifying offers throughout the 2014 season, but this contract shows that the more likely culprit in his 2013-14 offseason woes was an unreasonable asking price. It’s worth noting that he’ll come away with a combined $68.1MM over his age-31 to age-35 seasons, so he ultimately did well despite having to take a one-year deal in his first foray into free agency.

The greater note, however, is that the signing signals that the Twins do believe they can compete within their division this season. Next year’s market features a wealth of starting pitching options, so it would have made some sense for the Twins to lay low this winter and pounce in six months’ time, adding a premium starter rather than a middle-of-the-road arm to complement a young core that is transitioning to the Majors. Minnesota may still play in free agency next year, depending on how things pan out with Gibson, Nolasco, Milone, Meyer, Berrios and May, but Ryan has said that the Santana signing was made to compete in 2015.

Additionally, it has to be pointed out that the Twins surrendered a high second-round pick (their first-rounder is protected) in order to land Santana. The No. 47 overall pick in last year’s draft was worth $1.188MM, and it could be worth around $1.29MM in the coming draft. That’s a significant amount of bonus money, which might have been used to add to an already excellent farm system.

Overview

The Twins seem likely to be a better club than they were in 2014. The addition of Santana will improve what was, but may still be, a below-average pitching staff. For Minnesota, the 2015 season will be expected to be one in which a corner is turned; looking around the lineup, three spots — shortstop, left field and DH — will be occupied by top organizational prospects that have graduated to the Majors and already begun to realize some of their potential. In the rotation, Gibson will be asked to take a step forward, and the Twins can only hope for some degree of breakout from Hicks in center field. If he’s not able to contribute, he may not factor into their plans much longer, with outfielders Buxton, Arcia and Eddie Rosario presenting a possible trio to build upon.

Reinforcements will be on the way throughout the season, but it still seems a stretch to peg this team as a wild card or division contender. Stranger things have happened, and the talent is there if some prospects make a greater-than-expected impact, but 2016-17 seems like a more realistic timeframe for the Twins to again find themselves in a playoff hunt.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Out Of Options Players: AL Central

By | at

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors, so the team would be at risk of losing them in attempting to do so.  I’ve included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR’s sources.  Today, we’ll take a look at the AL Central.

White Sox: Maikel Cleto, Conor Gillaspie, Javy Guerra, Dan Jennings, Hector Noesi

The White Sox claimed Cleto off waivers from the Royals in February 2014, removing him from their 40-man roster in May and re-adding him in August.  He and Guerra are among those vying for a couple of spots in the team’s revamped bullpen, which features new additions David Robertson, Zach Duke, and Jennings.  Opening the season with an eight-man pen is possible.  In a Saturday post, Jim Margalus of South Side Sox ranked Cleto ahead of Guerra.

Indians: Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Nick Hagadone, Zach McAllister, Brandon Moss

Carrasco and Bauer have rotation spots locked down for the Indians.  McAllister is competing with a pool of others for two open spots, with Gavin Floyd’s injury creating an opening.  About a month ago, Indians manager Terry Francona implied McAllister will make the club, either as a starter or reliever.  Also about a month ago, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian described Hagadone as a “virtual lock” for the Tribe’s pen.

Tigers: Jose Iglesias, Hernan Perez, Andrew Romine

Perez and Romine were thought to be in competition for one bench spot, writes James Schmehl of Mlive.com, but Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said recently the team could break camp with both on the roster.  If healthy, Iglesias will be the everyday shortstop.

Royals: Louis Coleman, Jarrod Dyson, Erik Kratz

Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star broke down the Royals’ bullpen situation yesterday.  Relievers Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Jason Frasor, and Chris Young are locked into a pen that could break camp with eight.  At present, it seems likely they’ll be able to find a spot for Coleman.

As McCullough noted in an earlier article, Kratz is competing with Francisco Pena for the backup catcher job.  He feels that the 34-year-old Kratz is a better fit for the gig than Pena, who is 25.  Dyson will be the team’s fourth outfielder.

Twins: Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Jordan Schafer

Escobar seems assured a utility infield job on the team, but Nunez’s status is uncertain.  A trade seems possible.  Schafer’s all but certain to be Minnesota’s fourth outfielder.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By | at

The World Series winners brought back some familiar faces from their latest championship team, yet they’ll have to account for a Panda-sized hole in their lineup.

Major League Signings

  • Jake Peavy, SP: Two years, $24MM
  • Sergio Romo, RP: Two years, $15MM
  • Nori Aoki, OF: One year, $4MM ($5.5MM club option for 2016 with $700K buyout; option becomes mutual with 550 plate appearances)
  • Ryan Vogelsong, SP: One year, $4MM
  • Total spend: $47.7MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

With five key members (two position players and three pitchers) of last year’s roster facing free agency, the Giants brought back all three of the arms.  Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson and a hopefully-healthy Matt Cain will be joined in the rotation by the re-signed Jake Peavy.  Ryan Vogelsong seemed to be on the verge of going to the Astros, but after a bit of controversy scuttled that deal, he ended up re-signing with the Giants.  Vogelsong is currently slated to fill a long relief role but he (or Yusmeiro Petit) could be elevated to the fifth starter’s role if Tim Lincecum’s struggles continue.MLB: World Series-San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

After receiving some interest from the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox, Sergio Romo instead returned to San Francisco on a two-year, $15MM deal.  The veteran relief trio of Javier Lopez (37 years old), Santiago Casilla (34) and Romo (32) have played major roles in the Giants’ three World Series titles since 2010, and they’ll continue to hold down the back of the bullpen.

The Giants will miss Mike Morse’s .279/.336/.475 batting line (133 wRC+, or 33 percent better than the league-average hitter) and 16 homers, yet in replacing him in left field with free agent signing Nori Aoki may be an overall upgrade.  While Aoki posted only a 104 wRC+ and obviously fell far short of Morse in the power department, he generated 2.3 fWAR to Morse’s 1.0 fWAR last season due to a big edge in defense and baserunning, as well as a better batting average and OBP.  Aoki’s skill-set makes him a good fit for AT&T Park, and his defensive versatility may already have come in handy for the Giants; Aoki may be a short-term replacement in right field while Hunter Pence is on the DL.

Sabermetrically speaking, the gap between Pablo Sandoval and the newly-acquired Casey McGehee was closer than you might expect at first glance.  Sandoval posted a .279/.324/.415 slash line, 16 homers, a 111 wRC+ and .323 wOBA over 638 PA last season and generated 3.0 fWAR.  In his return to North American baseball after spending 2013 in Japan, McGehee hit .287/.355/.357 with four homers over 691 PA, good for a 102 wRC+, .319 wOBA and 2.0 fWAR.  Since McGehee will earn $4.8MM in 2015 as compared to Sandoval’s $17MM salary from the Red Sox, the Giants will be overjoyed if there’s only a one-win gap between the two third basemen next year.

Questions Remaining

While the Giants brought the band back together pitching-wise, Bumgarner’s postseason dominance obscured the fact that the club actually didn’t get much from its rotation in 2014.  San Francisco starters generated only 8.2 fWAR last season, the third-lowest total in baseball.  While this number should rise with Cain’s return and a full season from Peavy, there is still plenty of uncertainty given Cain’s health, the fifth starter spot and the 39-year-old Hudson’s fade down the stretch last year.  Hudson’s health isn’t a 100 percent guarantee, either, as the veteran righty underwent January surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle. Though he’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, the aftereffects of that operation are yet undetermined.

With questions surrounding their rotation, the Giants checked in on several top free agent pitchers this offseason.  They were serious suitors for both Jon Lester and James Shields (though their four-year, $80MM offer to Shields was reportedly taken off the table once they signed Peavy), and they at least considered the likes of Max Scherzer, Francisco Liriano and Ervin Santana.  I would guess that if the Giants are still in the race by midseason but have one or two pitchers struggling, they’d be prime candidates to pick up a top-tier arm at the trade deadline.

It seemed that “close-but-no-cigar” was the theme of the Giants’ offseason, as they explored what would’ve been very notable trades and signings for the likes of Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Torii Hunter, Ben Zobrist, Chris Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Chase Headley, Jed Lowrie, Nick Markakis, and some of Boston’s extra outfielders.  They also fell short in the bidding for Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who could’ve helped the club in either left or third.  Timing seemed to be an issue on some of these non-moves; with the Giants not knowing until the Winter Meetings if they would land Lester, they couldn’t make other commitments until they knew if they’d need the $140-150MM they had earmarked for the ace southpaw.

The Giants also made a strong push to re-sign Sandoval, though the Panda had reportedly made up his mind to leave San Francisco before last season even began.  (His postseason hitting display was quite the parting gift.)  McGehee’s 2014 stats were boosted by a .335 BABIP, and given Sandoval’s clear edge in career hitting totals, McGehee will likely fall well short of matching Sandoval’s production.  Given how the Giants looked elsewhere for third basemen this winter, McGehee might just be a one-year stopgap until they can find a more long-term answer at the hot corner.

Losing Sandoval and Morse will damage a Giants’ lineup that posted middle-of-the-pack numbers in most offensive categories last year.  Missing Pence for potentially all of April certainly won’t help in the team’s search for more runs.  On the flip side, the lineup should get a bit of a power boost with Brandon Belt healthy again after an injury-plagued 2014.

Romo actually posted a negative fWAR (-0.3) last season, largely due to career highs in both FIP (3.94) and HR/9 (1.4).  He lost the closer’s job partway through the season but rebounded enough that he earned a share of the closing duties with Casilla, though it was Casilla who received all four save opportunities during the playoffs.  As a result, Casilla will be the Giants’ closer going into Spring Training.

With this in mind, guaranteeing $15MM to a 32-year-old setup man coming off his worst statistical season was something of a risky move.  San Francisco already had a pretty strong bullpen without Romo, and with Vogelsong/Petit (or maybe Lincecum) added in a swingman or long relief role, a case could be made that the Giants could’ve let Romo go and spent that $15MM elsewhere.  Romo does provide depth for Casilla, who’s a non-traditional closer, but the Giants are investing a lot in the hope that Romo’s poor first half was just an aberration.

Deal Of Note

While the Giants couldn’t land a frontline ace like Lester or Shields, they did sign a guy who pitched like an ace while in a Giants uniform.  Peavy posted a 2.17 ERA, 3.41 K/BB rate and 6.6 K/9 in 78 2/3 innings after his late-July trade from Boston to San Francisco, though his peripherals (3.03 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.91 SIERA) indicate that he enjoyed some good fortune ERA-wise.

A 2.17 ERA over a full season probably isn’t in the cards, yet Peavy should provide the team with quality innings and a solid return on their two-year, $24MM investment.  As Peavy himself hinted while speaking with reporters (including MLBTR’s Zach Links) after his signing, he may have taken less money than he could’ve found elsewhere to return to the Giants due to his love of the organization and his desire to win.

Overview

While the Giants’ projected $170MM payroll for 2015 is one of the game’s highest, it was expected they would spend a little more than $52.7MM (their free agent signings and McGehee’s salary) on players given the extra revenues from their playoff run.  It seems like the team expected the same thing given the number of high-salaried targets they pursued but couldn’t land.

Still, a fairly quiet offseason is not a huge cause for alarm.  Not spending in winter means that the Giants probably have some cash to spend in June or July.  As mentioned earlier, the club could be contenders for pitching upgrades, or potentially could aim for bullpen help or lineup additions should the need arise.  The Giants could add short-term rentals, or pursue pricier players who are signed beyond 2015.  San Francisco can afford to consider such additions since they’ll have roughly $53MM coming off the books after the season (expiring deals for Lincecum, Hudson, McGehee, Vogelsong, Jeremy Affeldt, Marco Scutaro and Joaquin Arias) and possibly more if club options for Casilla and Aoki aren’t exercised.

For now, however, the Giants should be in pretty good stead given that they’re returning the large majority of a world championship roster.  Bruce Bochy will have to work some of his usual creativity to make up for the absences of Sandoval and Morse, and the club will have a tougher road in the NL West with the reloaded Dodgers and the rebuilt Padres both looking like contenders.  Still, anyone writing off the 2015 Giants simply due to the “Odd Year Curse” does so at their own peril.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports Images

2014-15 Free Agent Market: Multi-Year Deals In Context

By | at

Last year, I compiled a whole lot of data on free agent spending to assess overall spending trends over the 2007-08 to 2013-14 time period. That post was the culmination of a lot of research, and includes plenty of observations about the broader period in question which I will not repeat here.

Recently, I updated thing to assess the 2014-15 free agent market, which is in its very final stages as we speak. First, I broke out spending by team. Then, I looked at overall spending, noting that the total outlay had declined from the all-time high in 2013-14 but that AAV continued to rise.

I also touched upon the trends as regards multi-year contracts, showing that the average total commitment ($41.59MM) and AAV ($12.85MM) for contracts of two or more years in duration had both risen significantly. That is particularly notable since that element of spending had remained largely flat over the 2011-12 to 2013-14 timeframe, even as the total number of players achieving multi-year commitments rose.

Here, again, is the table:

2014-15 FA spending multiyear table

Now, let’s take a look in more visual form. The charts show a similar shape for both measures, and make clear that there continues to be healthy growth in spending on the game’s best players.

2014-15 FA spending AAV chart 2014-15 FA spending multiyear guarantee per player chart

Of course, that only provides part of the story. As the data also reveals, this year’s market showed a rather significant drop in the absolute number of players who were able to achieve those kinds of commitments.

Previously, I showed only the multi-year deals as a group. Now, we’ll look at them in more detail. First, total contracts by year:

2014-15 FA spending multiyear table v2

And now, by percentage:

2014-15 spending multiyear as percent table

There are several elements at play here. As I already discussed in my previous post, there were simply less MLB contracts given out this year, which does influence the absolute numbers. Nevertheless, less of those deals were of the multi-year variety. In particular, two-year deals fell rather dramatically. On the other hand, as the below table also demonstrates, the likelihood of a big league contract going for three or more years actually continued to rise (as a percentage of total MLB deals).

2014-15 FA spending multi vs 3plus table

Here is the above table in chart form. It is largely impossible to make any definitive statements about the reasons for the step back in multi-year contracts, but it seems most plausible to hypothesize that the differences are due largely to the necessarily different group of free agent players available in each season.

2014-15 FA spending multi vs 3plus chart

What is most interesting, perhaps, is what the 2014-15 market tells us about how to interpret the 2013-14 market, which seemingly represented a rather substantial increase in all types of spending as the league continued to cash in on television contracts. As I noted then, however, variations in the market — if, say, Robinson Cano and Masahiro Tanaka had not been available, or if the Yankees had not chosen to spend big — could make things look quite a bit different.

That is the case this year as well, but in the inverse: many of the team’s highest-revenue teams (Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, etc.) largely kept their money on the sidelines; there were no nine-figure foreign players; a previous extension prevented Clayton Kershaw from hitting the market as one of the most valuable free agents in history. And then there’s the fact that next year’s market appears to be loaded, with both top-end talent and depth. This spring has yet to produce a major extension for a 2015-16 free agent; if that class stays largely intact it should be rather interesting to check in this time next year.

Extension Candidate: Tyson Ross

By | at

Since arriving from the Athletics organization in a seemingly minor trade following the 2012 season, starting pitcher Tyson Ross has blossomed in San Diego. He followed a strong 2013 with a terrific 2014 campaign in which he posted a 2.81 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, with his only obvious blemish coming when he missed his last start due to a slight forearm strain. Ross looks like a starting pitcher the Padres can build around, and at least for now, the Padres seem to agree, declining to trade Ross and Andrew Cashner even though new GM A.J. Preller used the trade market to transform much of the rest of the team this winter.

USATSI_8040282_154513410_lowresRoss posted a 1.88 ERA in the pitcher’s haven of PETCO Park and a 3.79 ERA elsewhere in 2014, but he seems like the sort of pitcher who should be able to succeed in any home ballpark. His strikeout and walk totals are strong, and his 56.2 ground ball percentage over the past two seasons is outstanding, ranking third among pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings in that time. He also has a mid-90s fastball, although he’s relied on that less in recent years, turning instead to a sinker and a ridiculous slider that help generate all those ground balls. If anything, his exceptional ground ball abilities are somewhat wasted in the dead air of PETCO Park.

The Padres control Ross’ rights through the 2017 season, and already the Wasserman Media Group client has established a fairly high salary baseline as a Super Two player. Ross and the Padres settled for $5.25MM this winter for 2015, his second year of arbitration eligibility. That could put him on pace to make about $25MM from 2015 through 2017, depending on how he performs in the next two seasons.

There haven’t been many recent extensions for pitchers with arbitration situations similar to Ross’. Perhaps the one that comes closest is that of Gio Gonzalez, who signed a five-year, $42MM deal with a team option and a player/vesting option three years ago. At the time of that deal, Gonzalez, also a Super Two player, was heading into his first season of arbitration eligibility, with MLBTR projecting a $4.2MM salary for that year. Ross is one year closer to free agency than Gonzalez was, and salaries have escalated throughout the game since then, so the Padres would likely have to pay more heavily than the Nationals. But a deal for Ross in the $55MM-$60MM range with a structure similar to the Gonzalez contract would seem fair. The end result might look something like Matt Harrison’s current five-year, $55MM deal with the Rangers, which includes one club option.

If Ross has interest in a long-term contract, the circumstances would seem favorable for the Padres to sign him. San Diego has a lucrative new TV deal, and the Padres’ new ownership and seems intent on spending. And while the team has a fairly strong rotation now, they might not have one forever. Ian Kennedy is eligible for free agency after the season, and Cashner after 2016. Even with young or relatively young arms like Odrisamer Despaigne, Robbie Erlin, Matt Wisler and Casey Kelly in the system, signing at least one of Kennedy, Cashner or Ross would seem prudent — the pitcher who remains with the Padres long-term could join James Shields as a veteran rotation anchor.

Of course, with Preller, one never knows. It wasn’t he who traded for Ross, and he hasn’t yet shown strong attachments to players he didn’t acquire. (And he already traded Tyson’s brother Joe to the Nationals in the Wil Myers deal.) Preller could have his mind on something else entirely, particularly given the strong group of starting pitchers available on the free-agent market next winter. There are reasons to be somewhat cautious of Ross, too — he pitched about 60 more innings in 2014 than he did the previous year, and he has unusual mechanics and relies heavily on his slider. All those factors could make him an injury risk. But there’s little else to dislike about him, and if the Padres are comfortable with his health, perhaps the two sides can strike a deal at some point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By | at

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top