Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson
The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.
Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.
The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.
Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.
While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.
If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
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David Robertson 65% (2,137)
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Kenley Jansen 35% (1,163)
Total votes: 3,300
Free Agent Profile: Yasmani Grandal
This winter’s free agent market has been hot in some ways but there are still plenty of intriguing names out there for most positions. One area that moved fairly quickly was the catching market, with many of the top names off the board.
It wasn’t an amazing class to begin with but the top free agent backstops this winter were Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly and Kyle Higashioka. All three of them signed about a month ago. Gary Sánchez, Travis d’Arnaud, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have also been locked up.
For teams still looking for help behind the plate, their options are now more limited. Former All-Star Game MVP Elias Díaz is still out there, though he’s coming off a season in which his struggles were pronounced enough that he was released by the Rockies, finishing out the year as Higashioka’s backup in San Diego. Christian Bethancourt had some good results with the Cubs last year but was nonetheless outrighted, perhaps due to how inconsistent he’s been in recent years. James McCann has had passable offense at times but his work behind the plate hasn’t been well regarded.
One intriguing guy still available is Yasmani Grandal. His numbers were rough in 2022 and 2023 but there are some ways in which last year was a bounceback. The Pirates gave a lot of time behind the plate to Joey Bart, who engineered a nice breakout season, as well as former top overall pick Henry Davis. But Grandal was somewhat quietly in the mix next to those guys and managed to get into 72 games and step to the plate 243 times, as well as crouching behind the dish for 560 1/3 innings.
Offensively, he had a cromulent performance. His 18.9% strikeout rate was his best apart from his part-time work over a decade ago, before he was established as a big leaguer. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit below some of his previous work but still above league average. He also popped nine home runs in that limited role. His .228/.304/.400 batting line translated to a 95 wRC+, below average overall but above par for a catcher.
Grandal has been a solid defender in his career, particularly in the framing department, and that continued last year. Among guys with at least 550 innings caught in 2024, Grandal ranked seventh on the FanGraphs leaderboard for framing. The six guys ahead of him on that list each had more than 700 innings behind the plate. Patrick Bailey was the only backstop significantly ahead of the pack on a rate basis. Statcast had Grandal 11th on their framing leaderboard. Of the 10 guys ahead of him, only Hedges caught fewer pitches than Grandal.
The strong framing contributed to a solid overall defensive profile. When combined with a decent year at the plate, he actually provided some sneaky value, depending on which measure of wins above replacement you trust most. Baseball Reference only gave him 0.6 WAR on the year but FanGraphs had him at 1.4 and Baseball Prospectus at 1.8. That’s likely due to those outlets having different weights for catcher defense or framing specifically.
Grandal hasn’t gotten any attention this offseason. He hasn’t been tagged at MLBTR since early May, when he was activated from the injured list, having started the season on the IL due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot.
He isn’t going to help sell season tickets, but for clubs who still want upgrades behind the plate, perhaps he’s the best bet. He isn’t likely to cost much either. He only got $2.5MM plus incentives from the Bucs a year ago. Perhaps his solid season can get him a bump, but he’s also now 36 years old and still unsigned, which doesn’t give him a lot of negotiating leverage. Even if he does earn a raise, it surely won’t be massive.
Going back to Pittsburgh is probably not an option. Bart surely earned himself some run after his strong season, while the club still has Davis. There’s also Endy Rodríguez, who seemed to be emerging as the club’s catcher of the future in 2023, but then spent 2024 recovering from surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor tendon in his throwing arm. Jason Delay is on the 40-man roster as well.
Teams like the Red Sox, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Atlanta, Blue Jays, Mariners and others could arguably do with improving their catching depth. Some of those clubs have strong starting options but most clubs avoid leaning on one catcher too much these days. Cal Raleigh led the league with 125 starts last year, meaning every team had a backup/secondary catcher in the starting lineup at least 37 times, often far more.
There’s obviously some risk with signing a 36-year-old catcher but he arguably has a decent floor, depending on how one values his framing. While he struggled offensively in 2022 and 2023, BR considered him to be well below replacement level, but FG had him just barely below, while BP gave him 2.3 WAR for that two-year period.
Poll: Where Will Tanner Scott Sign?
After staying cold for the majority of the offseason, the free agent market has finally begun to heat up for relievers this week with veteran right-handers Chris Martin and Andrew Kittredge both agreeing to one-year deals. They join previous deals for Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi Garcia among the major signings of the winter among late-inning relief arms, but a number of the top arms on the market remain available at this point. Chief among those options is left-hander Tanner Scott, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 with the Marlins and built on that last year to deliver a dominant platform campaign in Miami and San Diego.
Scott’s fantastic work over the past two seasons, when he’s pitched to a combined 2.04 ERA (224 ERA+) with a 2.53 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work, has catapulted him to the pinnacle of the market for relief arms in his first trip through free agency this winter. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Scott would land a four-year, $56MM deal. Even that hefty price tag may have been light, as reporting has indicated that Scott could receive a multi-year deal in the realm of $20MM annually.
That would seemingly put him in line with the other top closers on the market in recent years, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz, at least in terms of average annual value. The largest guarantee for a reliever in MLB history went to Diaz, who signed a five-year, $102MM deal ($20.4MM AAV). That contract contained considerable deferrals, however, and by measure of net present value was valued closer to $93MM. Hader signed a five-year deal worth $95MM without deferred money ($19MM AAV). It would be a surprise if Scott managed to surpass the guarantees Hader and Diaz landed, but the AAV is more feasible (especially on a three-year deal).
Scott is a few months older than Hader was at the time of his deal and more than a year older than Diaz was. He also simply lacks the track record of the other two. Hader and Diaz were multi-time All-Stars with top-10 Cy Young finishes who’d spent virtually their entire careers as late-inning arms. Scott was a middle reliever for the first several seasons of his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+) and a 3.91 FIP entering his breakout 2023 campaign.
Rumblings on Scott haven’t been particularly prolific this winter, but a few teams have been connected to the southpaw. The Yankees were reportedly in the mix earlier this winter, though their addition of closer Devin Williams, current need for an infielder, and reportedly limited budget space going forward could take them out of the running. On the other hand, if they can trade Marcus Stroman, that might make them more amenable to another splash in the ‘pen. The Dodgers have been the team most frequently connected to Scott, while the Mets reportedly held a meeting with him recently. The Braves and Red Sox have been at least loosely connected to Scott as well.
The Dodgers make plenty of sense after a season where they struggled to find consistency in the ninth inning. Their late-inning mix is currently headlined by a combination of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Treinen. That trio all throw from the right side, making Scott a nice addition as a dominant southpaw to pair with fellow lefty Alex Vesia.
The Mets surely find the idea of pairing Scott with Diaz tantalizing. It’d be understandable if Diaz’s lost 2023 season and struggles in the first half of 2024 led the club to be a bit cautious when it comes to lengthy deals for relievers, but those factors may also reinforce the value of adding another shutdown arm who can help keep the bullpen afloat if Diaz is injured or struggling.
The Red Sox entered the winter in need of high-leverage relief help after losing Martin and Kenley Jansen to free agency, and expressed a clear preference for adding a lefty to the mix. That made Scott a seemingly ideal fit for the club, but they struck quickly in free agency by adding Chapman. They remain involved in the relief market, but it’s unclear whether they’re still pursuing Scott specifically.
Perhaps the most interesting sleeper is Atlanta. It’s been an extremely quiet winter for the Braves. By this time last year, they’d already swung trades for Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic, and Chris Sale, extended both Sale and Pierce Johnson, and signed Joe Jimenez and Reynaldo Lopez in free agency. This winter has been quiet outside of trading Jorge Soler in a salary dump deal and restructuring the contracts of Lopez and Bummer. Atlanta’s most significant addition is a split contract for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. The Braves generally aren’t shy about paying heavy per-year salaries in the bullpen, and with Raisel Iglesias ticketed for free agency next winter and Jimenez likely out for the season, perhaps the club could look to Scott to fortify the bullpen in the short-term before taking over as the closer in future seasons.
There are, of course, other speculative fits to consider — even if they’ve yet to be specifically linked to Scott. The D-backs still want a closer and already made one surprising free-agent grab when they inked Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays keep finishing runner-up on all their pursuits; could they eventually pivot to a big bullpen splash? The Giants have been tied to Pete Alonso recently and were in on Burnes before he signed in Arizona; they clearly still have some money to spend, even after signing Justin Verlander.
So, where will Scott end up? And will he approach or even exceed the deals landed by Hader and Diaz in free agency, or hew more closely to MLBTR’s $56MM prediction at the outset of free agency? Have your say in the polls below:
Where Will Tanner Scott End Up?
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Mets 29% (2,913)
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Dodgers 20% (2,015)
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Red Sox 16% (1,611)
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Other (specify in comments) 15% (1,468)
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Braves 13% (1,331)
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Yankees 7% (705)
Total votes: 10,043
How Much Will Tanner Scott Sign For?
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Between $40MM and $60MM 52% (3,372)
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Between $61MM and $94MM 28% (1,825)
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Under $40MM 16% (1,049)
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$95MM or more 3% (191)
Total votes: 6,437
Poll: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?
Just over a year removed from a disappointing offseason that saw the club emerge as a finalist for Shohei Ohtani but ultimately come up just short, the Blue Jays are once again in the midst of a difficult offseason where star players have repeatedly signed elsewhere despite aggressive pursuits from Toronto’s front office. The club was one of five teams seriously involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes but seemingly finished behind both New York teams and the Red Sox in their quest to land him. Since then, they’ve fallen short in pursuits of Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Teoscar Hernandez in free agency as well as Cody Bellinger on the trade market.
They’ve remained connected to virtually every major free agent available this winter, and have been linked to everyone from first baseman Pete Alonso to right-handers Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Outfielder Anthony Santander is the player they’ve been most strongly connected to of all; they’ve reportedly made him a contract offer and are viewed (alongside the Angels) as potential front-runners for his services. Of course, the same was said about Toronto during the sweepstakes for Burnes before the right-hander landed in Arizona. With team president Mark Shapiro entering the final year of his contract and GM Ross Atkins under contract for just one year beyond that, the front office is surely facing plenty of pressure to make the club’s final year of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette count—particularly if the club isn’t able to work out an extension with the former.
The Jays are a team that stands to significantly benefit from an infusion of impact talent in virtually all areas of the roster. Their 101 wRC+ (13th in baseball) last year was middle of the pack, as was their 3.95 rotation ERA (14th). While the club’s disastrous 2024 bullpen (29th in baseball by ERA) seems to be an obvious place to upgrade, the presence of high-quality veterans like Kirby Yates, David Robertson, and Kenley Jansen on the market create plenty of options for the Jays if they goal is to add to their relief corps without committing to a large contract.
One complicating factor is that while the Jays have been connected to a number of upper-level players on the market, it remains unclear whether they have wherewithal to land multiple impact players. Reporting shortly after the Winter Meetings suggested that Toronto may have room for only one major addition in their budget, whether that player ends up being an arm or a bat. If the club truly is only willing or able to add one high-priced player this winter, there are valid arguments for either a rotation piece or a lineup addition.
The argument for adding to the club’s rotation is a fairly simply one: the starting five lost a valuable piece over the summer in Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s yet to he replaced . Right-handers Yariel Rodriguez and Jake Bloss are solid depth options but leave something to be desired as the club’s on-paper fifth starter options. While a weak back-end of the rotation is something a club could stomach with a strong front half, staff ace Kevin Gausman is coming off a pedestrian 2024 season and just celebrated his 34th birthday. Adding a starter like Flaherty to the mix would help to lighten Gausman’s load as he looks to rebound, take pressure off Bowden Francis to repeat a breakout 2024 season that saw him pitch to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts down the stretch, and allow the club to push Rodriguez into more of a depth role.
While the club’s rotation is short on depth, that’s one area where the Toronto offense excels. Interesting young players like Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, and Davis Schneider are currently projected for roles on the bench or at Triple-A on Opening Day, and that’s with Daulton Varsho expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season. Varsho’s eventual return from the injured list should add even more depth, and with so many young hitters it’s not hard to imagine one of them taking a step forward in 2025.
While that group of young hitters (excluding Varsho) generally can’t be expected to produce on the level of a player like Santander or Alex Bregman, there is one player who could: Bichette. The star infielder struggled through a career-worst season in 2024 due to in part to injuries but had been among the steadiest All-Star level bats in baseball for several years prior to last season’s downturn.
It’s clear that the club’s offense needs at least some level of reinforcement. Of the 19 hitters to appear in at least 25 games for the Jays last season, only Guerrero was above average by measure of wRC+ and still remains with the team. While the club’s bevy of young hitters could improve and it’s easy to imagine Bichette or even Alejandro Kirk bouncing back to the more robust offensive performances they’ve offered in the past, Guerrero is the only true source of stability in the lineup.
That creates a strong argument for adding someone who can protect Guerrero, but it’s also fair to note that even a lesser addition who can provide above-average offense (e.g. Jesse Winker) could still help the lineup and leave the door open for a bigger addition to the rotation.
If you were in charge of the Blue Jays and only had room in the budget for one major addition, how would you handle the situation? Would you bolster the lineup and hope that a rebound from Gausman and a full season from Bowden in the rotation is enough to keep make up for the loss of Kikuchi and a lack of depth? Or would you add a starting pitcher and hope for a rebound from Bichette and steps forward from the club’s young hitters? Have your say in the poll below:
What Should The Blue Jays Prioritize?
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Prioritize adding an impact hitter to the lineup. 75% (2,476)
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Prioritize adding an impact starter to the rotation. 25% (827)
Total votes: 3,303
Triston Casas And Boston’s Infield Dilemma
The rumor mill has been a whirlwind for Red Sox fans this offseason, with the club diving headfirst into the Juan Soto sweepstakes only to come up short, then getting involved in the markets for Max Fried and Corbin Burnes before ultimately pivoting to Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Now, Boston appears to be in the thick of the market for impact hitters. The club has not made its desire to land a bat who can help balance their heavily left-handed lineup out a secret this winter, and they’ve been connected to a number of major bats like Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, and Nolan Arenado.
There’s been plenty of focus on the possibility of the club adding a right-handed infielder like Bregman or Arenado in particular. Either of those deals could come with complications, however. Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are both top prospects for the Red Sox who figure to debut in 2025 and fit best on the infield. As the club is currently constructed, with Triston Casas and Rafael Devers at the corners and Trevor Story at shortstop, second base appears to be the cleanest way for either of those players to get into the lineup- or for the club to add a free agent infielder. Bregman has indicated a willingness to play the keystone, but it would be a risky decision for the Red Sox to play a solid defensive third baseman out of position in deference to the incumbent Devers and his lackluster defense. And the idea of adding a glove-first third baseman like Arenado and moving him off the hot corner seems even more farfetched.
That’s led to plenty of speculation swirling around the future of Casas this winter, as the young first baseman would be by far the easiest piece of the club’s infield mix to move. Casas, who turns 25 next week, has done nothing but hit in the majors to this point with a .250/.337/.473 slash line in 222 big league games so far. That’s been good for a 125 wRC+, and with four years of team control remaining the slugger could be a building block for a number of teams around the game—including the Red Sox. While a player with Casas’s combination of talent and team control should garner plenty of attention if made available on the market, it’s worth noting that the youngster’s 2024 season may have raised some red flags that could make potential suitors concerned about his value.
For one thing, he missed most of the season due to torn cartilage in his ribcage. In the 63 games where Casas was healthy enough to take the field, he hit just .241/.337/.462 (119 wRC+) and posted the lowest walk rate (12.3%) of his young career. Both of those are still well above-average figures and not necessarily cause for concern by themselves, but Casas’s sharp uptick in strikeouts is more alarming. He struck out at a 31.7% clip in his 243 plate appearances last year. If he had stayed healthy enough to qualify, that would’ve been the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year behind only Zack Gelof. Third on that list is Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz, proving it’s at least theoretically possible to be an impactful major leaguer even if you punch out nearly a third of the time, but that’s a much steeper ask for a player as defensively limited as Casas.
Of course, those potential red flags haven’t stopped Casas from getting plenty of attention in the rumor mill. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has insisted that the club isn’t shopping the young slugger, but several reports have indicated that the club is at least listening to offers on him even if they aren’t placing him on the trading block outright. In particular, there was plenty of smoke surrounding the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Mariners regarding Casas last month. Those talks reportedly saw Seattle rebuff the idea of either trading one of their young starting pitchers for Casas or else trading Luis Castillo for a package involving both Casas and pricey DH Masataka Yoshida, while the Red Sox balked at the idea of trading Casas for Castillo without also offloading Yoshida’s salary.
With Crochet and Buehler now in the fold, the Red Sox have an abundance of starting pitching options that could make a deal for a player like Castillo less palatable. That being said, reports have indicated that the club could still be open to dealing Casas in order to facilitate other roster moves. One such roster move a trade of Casas could facilitate would be the addition of Bregman or Arenado at third base, while Casas departs the roster in order to allow a potential move to first base for Devers. Alternatively, parting ways with Casas could open the door for the club to instead add a right-handed slugger like Pete Alonso to the lineup at first base if the club opts to keep Devers at the hot corner.
It’s an interesting conundrum the Red Sox face: they’ve missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and finally appear poised to seriously contend for the AL East again in 2025. There’s at least theoretically room for an impact player on the infield as things stand, but a complicated positional fit and the presence of impact prospects at Triple-A nearing their big league debut would complicate any such acquisitions.
Should the club stand pat on the infield, preserving the potential star power of Casas and leaving the door open for Mayer and/or Campbell to step in at second base this year? Should the club deal Casas in order to guarantee that there’s room for both a top prospect and an impact addition on the infield, despite the questions regarding Casas’s current value? Or should the Red Sox push their chips in and sign an impact player while keeping Casas in the fold, regardless of the awkward positional fit and the risk of blocking impact prospects? Have your say in the poll below:
How Should The Red Sox Handle Their Infield?
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Keep Casas and sign an impact hitter despite positional concerns. 41% (1,843)
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Trade Casas and sign an impact infielder. 32% (1,431)
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Keep Casas and don't add an impact infielder. 27% (1,241)
Total votes: 4,515
Where Will Jack Flaherty End Up?
If there’s been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from Juan Soto‘s record-shattering contract), it’s that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander Michael Wacha kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since then. After right-hander Corbin Burnes reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January.
Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winter’s robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal.
On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burnes’s deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-less in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by Max Fried earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the righty’s reported asking price of $245MM.
If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitcher’s market can collapse once they don’t have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been connected to the right-hander in recent days.
The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes there’s been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been attached to first baseman Pete Alonso, it’s possible that the club’s interest in a pitcher of Flaherty’s caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. There’s a possibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have extended an offer to outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.
It’s possible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres on one-year deals. That hasn’t stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson helping to anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander.
Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isn’t in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023’s staff ace Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, they’ve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they continue their search for upgrades even after last week’s deal for Morton.
As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flaherty’s services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly; while there’s potentially room at third base for another bat, they haven’t been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. There’s been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another rotation addition as “inevitable” for the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point.
There’s some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while he’s available. The right-hander’s decision is due by January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that misses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor.
In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mystery team” swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTR’s prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below.
Where Will Flaherty Sign?
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Giants 24% (1,987)
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Tigers 19% (1,582)
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Orioles 18% (1,477)
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Blue Jays 15% (1,236)
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Cubs 13% (1,109)
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Other (Specify in the comments) 11% (947)
Total votes: 8,338
How Much Will Flaherty Be Guaranteed?
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Less than $100MM 47% (2,995)
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$100MM - $125MM 44% (2,827)
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More than $125MM 9% (597)
Total votes: 6,419
How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2024
We covered the American League yesterday, so now let’s see what the National League’s 15 teams have done (so far) to address their least-productive positions from the 2024 campaign. Baseball Reference’s position-by-position bWAR breakdown is our guide, so let’s dive in…
Braves (Left field, -0.2 bWAR): Atlanta took a big chunk of money off the Mariners’ payroll to facilitate last winter’s five-player trade involving former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, with the idea that Kelenic would break out with a change of scenery. Unfortunately for the Braves, their investment didn’t pay off, as Kelenic hit only .231/.286/.393 over 449 plate appearances with his new team. Old friends Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario were also ineffective as part of the left field timeshare, and while Ramon Laureano played well, Atlanta still opted to non-tender Laureano in November. Bryan De La Cruz was brought in on a split league deal but he might be targeted to play right field in place of the recovering Ronald Acuna Jr., and then perhaps shifted into a platoon with Kelenic once Acuna returns from his ACL rehab. It has been a pretty quiet offseason overall for Atlanta, but acquiring an everyday outfielder to supplant Kelenic and company entirely might still be on the to-do list.
Brewers (First base, -0.6 bWAR): It’s never good when a team’s second highest-paid player is chiefly responsible for its least-effective spot on the diamond, particularly when that club is a lower-payroll outfit like Milwaukee. Rhys Hoskins signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brew Crew last winter and unsurprisingly passed on an opt-out clause after he hit an uninspiring .214/.303/.419 over 517 PA in 2024. Jake Bauers was even less effective as the left-handed side of the platoon and was outrighted off the 40-man roster and into free agency at season’s end. The Brewers won’t be able to trade Hoskins unless they eat most of the $22MM still owed on his deal, so the hope for now is that the veteran will more consistent in his second year in Milwaukee, perhaps with former top prospect Tyler Black also contributing as Bauers’ replacement.
Cardinals (Right field, -0.1 bWAR): Alec Burleson put up pretty decent numbers during his 173 PA as a right fielder, but the other seven players who cycled through the Cardinals’ right field position didn’t contribute much of anything. With St. Louis focusing on its younger core in 2025, the plan for now is to give former top prospect Jordan Walker an extended look as the everyday right fielder. Walker doesn’t turn 23 until May and he has just 643 big league plate appearances over two seasons, so there’s still plenty of time for a breakout.
Cubs (Third base, 0.2 bWAR): The deadline deal that brought Isaac Paredes in from the Rays didn’t do much to stabilize the Wrigleyville hot corner, and the Cubs then shook the position up again by dealing Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade package. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters last month that top prospect Matt Shaw will get a “long look” at third base, but “he has to earn that job.” Chicago has been linked to such experienced third basemen as Josh Rojas and Yoan Moncada in the aftermath of the Tucker trade, so chances are the Cubs will bring in a veteran to compete with Shaw or split time at third base.
Diamondbacks (Rotation, 3.0 bWAR): Technically, the 2.2 bWAR that the Diamondbacks received from the center field spot is their lowest position on Baseball Reference’s chart. However, since only two teams got less from their starting pitchers than Arizona did in 2024, it is more accurate to point to the rotation as the flaw that left the D’Backs painfully short of a playoff berth. Injuries were the biggest reason for the rotation’s struggles, and it is possible that things will improve just if Eduardo Rodriguez, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Montgomery are all healthier in 2025. That didn’t stop the D’Backs from going out and signing Corbin Burnes to a surprising six-year, $210MM deal, which only enhances the likelihood that Arizona can now trade from its starting depth before Opening Day.
Dodgers (Center field, 1.2 bWAR): James Outman and Chris Taylor both struggled, and rookie Andy Pages fared far better defensively in left field than in center. Fortunately for Los Angeles, trade deadline pickups Tommy Edman, Enrique Hernandez, and Kevin Kiermaier stabilized things up the middle late in the season and throughout the playoffs, helping the Dodgers win the World Series. With Edman now signed to a long-term extension, he looks to be the top choice in center field going forward, though his ability to play all over the diamond gives the Dodgers some flexibility if another center-field option emerges.
Giants (Second base, -0.2 bWAR): Tyler Fitzgerald‘s excellent rookie season ensured that he’d be lining up somewhere in San Francisco’s 2025 lineup, and the only question was whether or not the Giants would keep him at shortstop or move him elsewhere around the diamond. With Willy Adames now locked in as the new starting shortstop, Fitzgerald will slide across the middle infield and take over the keystone. Fitzgerald’s inflated .380 BABIP hints at a regression from his big 2024 numbers, though even a couple of steps back will still represent an improvement over what the Giants received from their second base mix last year. Thairo Estrada saw the bulk of the playing time as the Giants’ second baseman in 2024, but the two sides parted ways entirely after the season and Estrada is now set to play for an NL West rival in Colorado.
Marlins (Left field, -1.2 bWAR): Left field edges out the catching position, as the Marlins only received -1.1 bWAR from their backstops in 2024. Bryan De La Cruz and Nick Gordon are both gone, leaving left field open for Kyle Stowers or Jesus Sanchez as the primary left fielder next season, unless that duo are instead deployed in center (Stowers) and right (Sanchez). Griffin Conine, Dane Myers, Javier Sanoja, and Derek Hill figure to all be part of the outfield mix in some regard, leaving the rebuilding Marlins with options about how exactly they’ll divvy up the playing time.
Mets (Bullpen, 0.0 bWAR): Only the Blue Jays and Rockies received less from their bullpens than the Mets in 2024, which perhaps reflects New York’s high-risk and high-reward approach to the relief corps. The Mets had the highest reliever strikeout rate (27.7%) in baseball, but also the third-worst walk rate (10.7%), evening things out to a 4.03 bullpen ERA that ranked 17th of 30 teams. President of baseball operations David Stearns has a long history of finding unheralded relievers that deliver good performances, which could be why the Mets’ bullpen moves have thus far been mostly restricted to adding a bunch of pitchers on minor league contracts. Finding a gem or two within that group would help immensely, but signing a more clear-cut candidate for high-leverage innings would help immensely, particularly if that reliever is left-handed.
Nationals (Third base, -0.5 bWAR): After acquiring Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell to address their deficiencies at first base (0.3 bWAR) and DH (0.1 bWR), the Nationals figure to now more fully turn their attention to the hot corner. The Nats explored the creative solution of longtime second baseman Gleyber Torres at the position, but Torres didn’t have interest in moving off the keystone and instead signed with the Tigers. Whatever veteran third baseman Washington adds is likely to be a short-term fix, as top prospect Brady House looks like the long-term answer at the position and figures to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025.
Padres (Pinch-hitting, 0.4 bWAR): Among more regular positions, the Padres’ lowest total was 0.9 bWAR from their catchers. Kyle Higashioka left in free agency to sign with the Rangers, weakening both areas and leaving Luis Campusano as San Diego’s top choice behind the plate. There has been plenty of speculation swirling about the Padres’ offseason but little in the way of substantive moves, perhaps owing to the uncertainty surrounding exactly how much the front office has available to spend this winter. Since the Padres are one of Roki Sasaki‘s top suitors, it is possible the team might be holding off until Sasaki makes his decision to know exactly how they’ll proceed in configuring the rotation, perhaps trading away a bigger salary or two, and bolstering the catching corps and the bench.
Phillies (Right field, 1.0 bWAR): Nick Castellanos hit .254/.311/.431 with 23 homers over 659 plate appearances, translating to a decent but unspectacular 105 wRC+. Castellanos’ value was further limited by his right-field glovework, which drew dismal reviews from public defensive metrics. It added up to an 0.8 bWAR season for Castellanos, which isn’t a great result for a player on a $20MM salary. With two years and $40MM more on Castellanos’ contract, the Phillies’ efforts to find a trade partner will be difficult, leaving the Phils somewhat limited to just hoping that Castellanos can hit better in his age-33 season.
Pirates (Right field, -1.2 bWAR): On the bright side for the Phillies, at least they didn’t have the shakiest right field situation in the state of Pennsylvania. A whopping 12 different players saw some action in right field for the Pirates last season, and the three players with the most innings logged at the position — Bryan De La Cruz, Edward Olivares, Connor Joe — have already been let go. Pittsburgh has been seeking some new outfield help but hasn’t yet landed a prominent regular to suit up alongside center fielder Oneil Cruz and left fielder Bryan Reynolds. As always, the limited payroll will shorten the Buccos’ list of possible targets, but adding even a platoon bat to split time with the incumbent in-house backup outfielders would fill a big hole in the roster.
Reds (Third base, -1.9 bWAR): Cincinnati received only 4.4 total bWAR from its position players in 2024, the third-lowest total of any team in the sport. This lackluster number included sub-replacement scores from pinch-hitters (-0.1), the DH spot (-1.3), first base (-1.3) and finally the hot corner as the weakest cog in this faulty model of the Big Red Machine. Unfortunately for the Reds, third base was the position that was supposed to have been firmed up by the signing of Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM contract last winter, but Candelario struggled to a 225/.279/.429 slash line in the first season of his deal. Santiago Espinal and Noelvi Marte also didn’t hit well in their time at third base when Candelario was deployed over at first base, yet the Reds seem likely to run it back with this same trio at the hot corner next year. A bounce-back from Candelario would be most helpful in the short term, and a breakout from former top prospect Marte (who missed 80 games due to a PED suspension) could give Cincinnati a longer-term fix as the Reds continue to try and figure out their infield mix.
Rockies (Bullpen, -2.0 bWAR): Only the Blue Jays’ pen had a lower bWAR total, and Toronto was also the only collective pitching staff in the league with a negative bWAR, as the Rockies finished 29th of 30 in the overall pitching category with an even 0.0 bWAR. The Rockies have thus far brought in a couple of experienced relievers in Diego Castillo and Jimmy Herget to compete for jobs, but as you might expect, it isn’t easy luring bigger-name bullpen arms to the thin air of Coors Field. With the club unlikely to splurge much on signings, Colorado could be counting on some more minor league signings or internal improvement to help upgrade the relief corps.
Free Agent Profile: Jorge Polanco
Just under a year ago, the Mariners acquired second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins as part of a five-player deal that also involved right-hander Anthony DeScalfani, the latter of whom was traded to Seattle as part of the Robbie Ray trade earlier that same month. At the time of the deal, adding Polanco seemed to be something of a coup for the Mariners, who were in desperate need of an upgrade over Kolten Wong at second base and managed to take advantage of the fact that the Twins were facing a mandate to cut payroll and had plenty of infield depth at their disposal.
That allowed them to add a former All-Star with who had slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the previous three seasons. Polanco even came with multiple years of control in the form of a $12MM team option ($750K buyout) that seemed quite likely to be a no-brainer for the club to pick up when the trade was executed. Flash forward to the end of the 2024 campaign, however, and Polanco had posted arguably the worst full season of his career before undergoing knee surgery in October. Given that, it was a surprise to no one when the Mariners opted to decline their option on the switch-hitter and pocket the $11.25MM in savings for use on other areas of the roster.
Since then, Polanco has been awaiting an opportunity on the free agent market. The infielder is slated to return to baseball activities at some point this month and be fully ready to go in time for Spring Training, but his market has nonetheless been rather quiet. The Astros reportedly had some level of interest in Polanco as a fallback plan in the event they failed to land Alex Bregman, but they instead pivoted to a combination of Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That seems likely to close the door on the possibility of Polanco heading to Houston, and no other teams have been publicly connected to the infielder.
Some trepidation from clubs regarding Polanco is understandable. In addition to the fact that he’s coming off offseason surgery, there are some worrisome signs in his performance last year even going beyond his raw production. Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout rate was by far the worst mark of his 11-year MLB tenure. He’s struck out just a 19.5% clip throughout his career, but his strikeouts have been steadily increasing over the last several years. He struck out at just an 18.3% clip back in 2021, which was by far the best season of his career. Since then, however, his strikeouts have climbed each season with a 21.3% figure in 2022 and 25.7% in ’23 before topping out with last year’s aforementioned 29.2% clip.
It’s a worrying trend that was present even when Polanco was productive in previous years and shows little sign of turning around. After making contact on 81.6% of pitches he swung at in 2021, good for the 32nd-highest contact rate among 132 qualified hitters. That figure dropped to 73.6% last year, though, which was just 124th among 169 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. That’s a steep drop, though it’s not the culprit of Polanco’s downturn in production on its own. After all, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact rates in 2022 and ’23 were diminished relative to 2021 as well and Polanco still managed to remain productive.
Where Polanco found success in those years but not 2024 was in the power department: his barrel rate in 2022 was a well above-average 10.2%, and it jumped to an excellent 13.8% two seasons ago. Last year, however, it dipped to just 8.9%. That’s still an above-average figure overall, but a nearly five-point drop in barrel rate is sure to sap any hitter’s power output. Polanco was no exception to that, as after crushing 14 homers and 18 doubles in just 343 plate appearances in 2023 last year saw Polanco slug just 16 homers and 11 doubles despite stepping up to the plate 136 more times than he had the year prior.
While Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and vanishing power are both clear causes for concern, there is some reason for optimism as well. His 9.8% walk rate remained well above average in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA was 24 points higher than his .287 wOBA. That suggests at least some of his lackluster campaign last year was due to poor batted ball luck, and after a season where he posted a 92 wRC+ for the Mariners it’s easy to imagine him being more of an average to slightly above-average hitter by that metric had his results matched more closely with the underlying metrics.
A second baseman who can put up a wRC+ in the 100-105 range can be a valuable regular even when factoring in Polanco’s lackluster defense at the keystone, and it’s not hard to imagine Polanco being a steady, two-win regular if healthy enough to play a full season in 2025 even without his contract or power bouncing back. Between that solid floor of production at the possibility Polanco can rediscover either the power stroke or the more contact-oriented approach he found success with in previous seasons, he figures to be one of the better players available to teams in need of help at second or third base at this point in the winter—particularly for clubs that aren’t willing to commit what it would take to land Bregman, Nolan Arenado, or Ha-Seong Kim on an annual basis. The Yankees, Angels, Cubs, and Pirates are among a number of teams that could use help around the infield that Polanco could be a speculative fit for.
Looking For A Match In A Jordan Montgomery Trade
When the Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world by landing right-hander Corbin Burnes in free agency, the move gave them nearly unparalleled depth in the rotation: the righty is joined by Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson among the club’s starting options headed into 2025. That sort of depth will cause plenty of speculation regarding the possibility of a trade, and Arizona’s rotation has been no exception to that. While the club reportedly wasn’t close to dealing any of its pitchers last week, they’ve has garnered interest on their rotation throughout the winter.
Of that group, Montgomery has long seemed to be the most likely player to move. The lefty was a late-spring signing by the Diamondbacks last year, and the deal hasn’t gone well for anyone. Montgomery struggled badly in his first season in the desert, pitching to a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings of work. His 4.48 FIP was substantially better than that top-level run prevention figure, though even that was below average. Diamondbacks ownership went as far as to publicly criticize Montgomery shortly after the 2024 season came to a close, so it’s no surprise that the Snakes have long appeared motivated to move the southpaw ahead of his age-32 season. The addition of Burnes could at least theoretically open the door to Arizona feeling comfortable enough with its rotation depth to more seriously consider dealing one of its other arms, but it stands to reason that the club would still prefer to move Montgomery all else equal.
After such a disastrous 2024 campaign, it’s hard to imagine the Diamondbacks getting much of significance for the lefty’s services beyond some salary relief. Montgomery is slated to earn $22.5MM in 2025, a hefty sum that it seems unlikely that the club will be able to fully get off of its books. With that being said, the ever-increasing price of starting pitching makes the deal at least a little bit more palatable than it might seem at first glance. After all, the Red Sox guaranteed right-hander Walker Buehler $21.05MM for the 2025 season on the heels of a lackluster campaign where he posted a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts. The Tigers, meanwhile, guaranteed 37-year-old veteran Alex Cobb $15MM on the heels of a 2024 campaign where he made just three regular season starts.
Both of those players have substantial previous success to lean on, but so does Montgomery. The lefty won the World Series with the Rangers in 2023, and in doing so capped off a three-season stretch where he pitched to a strong 3.48 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.62 FIP across 94 starts. So long as the Diamondbacks aren’t looking to get anything of particular significance back in return, it’s relatively easy to imagine them being able to offload at least $15MM or so of Montgomery’s salary. Which teams could be best positioned to take a one-year roll of the dice on the lefty’s services? A look at nine potential suitors, listed alphabetically within tiers:
Best Fits
- Athletics: The A’s have been quite aggressive in looking to upgrade their club this winter, in part as they attempt to avoid a grievance with the MLBPA regarding their use of revenue sharing dollars. They’ve already added Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to their rotation this winter, but club brass left the door open for a third starting pitching acquisition this winter if the opportunity presented itself. Enter Montgomery, the acquisition of whom could push the club’s luxury tax payroll up to $105MM range they’re reportedly targeting even if Arizona ate some of the money. If Montgomery manages to bounce back in 2025, he’d join Severino, Springs, JP Sears, and Mitch Spence in a surprisingly formidable rotation for the club’s first season in West Sacramento.
- Braves: Atlanta has a clear need for rotation help after losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency this winter, but the club has been uncharacteristically slow to get to work this winter. With that being said, Alex Anthopoulos’s front office has long shown a fondness for one-year additions coming off down seasons like Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna. Arguably, that list also includes reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale as the lefty was entering the final guaranteed year of his deal with Boston when the Braves traded for him. A trade for Montgomery surely wouldn’t go quite as well as the one for Sale did, but it’s easy to imagine the lefty bouncing back in the Braves rotation alongside Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach in 2025.
- White Sox: Chicago may seem like an odd fit for Montgomery, given the fact that they’re coming off the worst season in MLB history with virtually no hope of making noise in the AL Central race during this coming season. The fact that they’re one of the only clearly rebuilding clubs in the game right now could make them a unique potential suitor for Montgomery’s services, however. Their rotation mix is filled to the brim with young arms who could prove to be interesting but offer little certainty, so adding a veteran arm like Montgomery could make sense for all sides. It’s possible the White Sox, with a payroll that RosterResource projects at just $78MM in 2025, could actually absorb the entirety of Montgomery’s salary in exchange for a prospect from Arizona. If Montgomery pitches well in the first half, Chicago could then flip the lefty at the deadline for additional young talent to keep their rebuild chugging along.
Next Tier Down
- Astros: It’s possible to imagine the Astros being content with their current starting depth after adding Hayden Wesneski to the mix in the Kyle Tucker trade and likely welcoming right-hander Luis Garcia back into the fold in time for Opening Day after he missed the 2024 season due to injury. With that being said, the club did lose both Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy from its rotation depth this winter and is known to be shopping right-hander Ryan Pressly on the trade market this winter while searching for left-handed hitting outfielders. Arizona has a surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders and is known to be on the hunt of late-inning relief help, so perhaps there’s a fit here involving some combination of Montgomery, Pressly, and young Diamondbacks outfielder like Alek Thomas.
- Mariners: Seattle may seem like a somewhat unusual fit for Montgomery’s services given the club’s strong rotation, but there seems to be at least some possibility that the club will trade right-hander Luis Castillo this winter. Doing so would leave the club with little rotation depth, however. Theoretically, it’s easy enough to imagine the Mariners dealing Castillo to another club in exchange for infield help, and then using the saved money from the deal in order to pivot towards acquiring Montgomery to restock the rotation. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has certainly shown a willingness to get similarly creative in the past, and Mike Hazen’s front office in Arizona has been one of his most frequent trade partners over the years.
- Mets: The Mets aren’t in a position where they need to add another starter, with a rotation mix that currently runs eight players deep. With that being said, Montgomery’s salary would hardly be excessively cumbersome for the big-spending Mets, and David Stearns has shown a fondness for reclamation projects in the rotation. Given the Mets’ success in rehabilitating the careers of Luis Severino and Sean Manaea last winter, it would hardly be a surprise if the club found similar success in doing so with Montgomery.
Longer Shots
- Cubs: The White Sox aren’t the only Chicago team Montgomery could at least theoretically make sense for. The Cubs are known to be in the market for another starting pitcher, and their pursuit of lefty Jesús Luzardo earlier this winter indicate a willingness on the club’s part to roll the dice on a hurler coming off a down season like Montgomery. With that being said, the club reportedly turned down a trade involving Montgomery and Cody Bellinger earlier this winter. Given the fact that the Cubs ended up trading Bellinger for little more than salary relief last month, it stands to reason that Jed Hoyer’s front office either has little interest in Montgomery’s services or at the very least preferred to open up that payroll space for other pursuits.
- Orioles: Baltimore would’ve seemed like one of the better on-paper fits for Montgomery’s services just a week ago, but they recently inked right-hander Charlie Morton to a one-year deal for 2025. That won’t necessarily take them out of the rotation market entirely, but it seems as though Baltimore would only add to its rotation in order to bring in a clear upgrade over its internal options. Given Montgomery’s down season, it’s hard to imagine the club feeling that way about him at this point. After all, fifth starter Dean Kremer posted a higher ERA+ than Montgomery in two of the last three seasons.
- Rangers: Montgomery was a key piece in the Rangers’ 2023 World Series championship, and the club seemingly had plenty of interest in bringing the lefty back last winter. Much like Montgomery himself, the Rangers had a down year in 2024 and missed the postseason. With Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney now free agents, there could potentially be room for a reunion in the Texas rotation. With that being said, the club appears determined to remain under the first luxury tax threshold and has a number of young starters who they could opt to lean on in 2025 instead, like Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker.
Where Can The Mariners Turn For Third Base Help?
The Mariners haven’t been shy about their desire to shore up their infield mix this winter, and while at points in the offseason the club has shown an interest in upgrading at second their focus appears to be primarily on upgrading the infield corners rather than the keystone, where options like Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss are available to hold down the fort until top middle infield prospect Cole Young is ready for his MLB debut.
First base appears to be fairly simple hole for the club to fill. They’ve long been connected to a reunion with veteran Justin Turner, who helped to bolster their first base mix down the stretch and could pair well with Luke Raley‘s left-handed bat at the position. Aside from that possibility, a number of viable veteran options like Mark Canha and Anthony Rizzo still remain available in free agency as well, not to mention trade candidates like Yandy Diaz, Luis Arraez, and LaMonte Wade Jr. who could provide a bit more impact at the cost of trade capital. Even after a run on first base talent just before the New Year, plenty of options remain available for the club to consider as they look for an upgrade over Raley and youngster Tyler Locklear.
Third base, however, is a bit more complicated. While a number of players could at least theoretically be available at the position this winter, Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado both figure to be well outside of the Mariners’ price range. Another potential trade candidate, Eugenio Suarez, also seems unlikely to be a fit given that the Mariners themselves traded Suarez just one offseason ago. Beyond Bregman, few options available in free agency provide obvious upgrades over Josh Rojas, who the club utilized at third base last year before non-tendering him back in November.
Standing pat doesn’t appear to be an option at the position, either: Austin Shenton and Leo Rivas could at least theoretically pitch in at the position but have a combined 136 plate appearances at the big league level, necessitating at least one veteran addition to take the lion’s share of reps at the hot corner. With an apparently tight budget and minimal internal solutions available, who could be a realistic target for the club this winter?
Free Agents
- Ha-Seong Kim: Kim, 29, is without a doubt the best free agent infielder who could potentially fit into the Mariners’ budget given his 106 wRC+ and plus defense all around the infield over the past three seasons. MLBTR predicted Kim to land a relatively affordable one-year, $12MM contract ahead of the 2025 season at the outset of the offseason, but as the market has developed some reports have indicated he could land a multi-year deal this winter and depending on how the bidding goes, it’s easy to imagine things going beyond Seattle’s comfort zone. Beyond the possibility of Kim landing a deal that goes beyond what Seattle is willing to offer, Kim has played both shortstop and second base far more commonly than third throughout his career. As Kim likely looks to rebuild his value coming off shoulder surgery, it would hardly be a shock if he preferred to sign somewhere where he’d be able to be a regular shortstop. He’d be a defensive upgrade for J.P. Crawford, but the Mariners have shown no desire to move him off the position to this point.
- Paul DeJong: DeJong, 31, was a quality regular at shortstop with the Cardinals early in his career and even made an All-Star game back in 2019. His offense fell way off after that season, however, and he struggled to a 72 wRC+ from 2020 to 2023. Last season as something of a rebound for the veteran, however, as he split time between the White Sox and Royals and managed to hit a respectable .227/.276/.427 (95 wRC+) in 139 games with solid glovework at both shortstop and, more importantly in this context, third base. That respectable season should allow him to easily beat the $1.75MM guarantee he landed with Chicago last winter, though he should nonetheless still be a perfectly affordable option for the Mariners this winter. It’s easy to imagine DeJong jumping at the opportunity if offered regular starts in Seattle, but it’s fair to wonder if the Mariners would have much interest in him as a fit. After all, they just parted ways with Rojas back in November despite strong glovework thanks to his below average offense, and DeJong’s 32.4% strikeout rate last year goes against the more contact-oriented approach the club has attempted to cultivate in recent years.
- Yoán Moncada: Moncada would be an interesting candidate for the third base job in Seattle. A former top prospect, Moncada has had an up-and-down career with the White Sox before things came off the rails due to injuries the past few years. He’s played just 104 games over the past two seasons, but has a fairly respectable 101 wRC+ in that time. It’s far from impossible to imagine him bouncing back to something closer to the 120 wRC+ he posted with Chicago back in 2021, though it’s possible that (like with DeJong) his elevated strikeout numbers throughout his career could give the Mariners some pause. That said, Moncada’s overall offensive profile when healthy is stronger than that of DeJong’s, and given his limited track record in recent years the infielder should still be very affordable.
- Jose Iglesias: Iglesias is coming off a career year with the Mets that saw him slash .337/.381/.448 (137 wRC+) in 291 plate appearances across 85 games. That’s the sort of performance that should make him a very attractive candidate for virtually any club’s bench mix, but the Mariners could stand out among other potential suitors by offering him a regular role. With that being said, there’s plenty of potential cause for concern in Iglesias’s profile. The veteran infielder will play all of this coming season at age-35, and it’s impossible to imagine him replicating the incredible .382 BABIP that made him an above-average hitter last year. He’s also fairly inexperienced at third base, although he did play the position quite well (+2 Outs Above Average) when called upon by the Mets last year. Iglesias’s contact-oriented approach could hold particular appeal in Seattle, and he could be an attractive option for the club if they’re interested in giving larger roles to youngsters like Shenton and Rivas.
Trade Candidates
- Alec Bohm: Bohm stands out on this list in part because the club has already reportedly expressed interest in his services this winter. Those talks understandably seemed to fizzle out when the Phillies asked for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return for Bohm’s services, but if Philadelphia decides to drop their asking price as the offseason drags on he remains one of the better fits available to the Mariners this winter. While Bohm’s defense at the hot corner has generally left much to be desired, he slashed a strong .280/.332/.448 (115 wRC+) last year and struck out just 14.2% of the time, making him a strong fit for a club that has typically shied away from high-strikeout hitters when possible. If the asking price for Bohm stays anywhere near where it was earlier this offseason, however, it’s hard to imagine a trade coming together.
- Willi Castro: Castro, 28 in April, has started just 48 games at third base throughout his career to this point but is a super utility player with a great deal of experience at both shortstop and second base, which suggests he should be able to handle the hot corner relatively easily. Since joining the Twins prior to the 2023 season, Castro has put up back-to-back 108 wRC+ seasons while accumulating 5.6 fWAR. Minnesota seems disinclined to pay the $6.2MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Castro will earn in his final trip through arbitration, but that’s a price tag the Mariners should have little trouble stomaching for a likely regular at a position of need.
- Brett Baty: Baty, 25, stands out from the other potential trade candidates mentioned thanks to the fact that he’s got just 169 MLB games under his belt. A former consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, Baty has struggled to this point in his big league career and hit just .229/.306/.327 (83 wRC+) in 50 games with the Mets this past season. The emergence of Mark Vientos has seemingly boxed Baty out of a path to playing time with the club in 2025, particularly if Pete Alonso eventually returns to Queens. That could make Baty expendable for the club, and if the Mariners aren’t able to find a more reliable veteran option in free agency or on the trade market it would be very understandable for the club to pivot towards rolling the dice on a player with Baty’s offensive potential and prospect pedigree.