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Where Does The Market Stand For Jordan Montgomery?

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Jordan Montgomery’s market took a hit yesterday when Rangers general manager Chris Young threw cold water on the possibility of more acquisitions before Opening Day. “I don’t think there are any additions coming at this point,” Young told reporters, citing the organization’s diminished local broadcasting revenues on their contract with Diamond Sports Group.

While Young noted the team will “keep an open mind,” it’s clear the organization isn’t anticipating a significant splash. That’s something Young implied as far back as late November and has been supported by reporting from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who has suggested throughout the offseason that the team was unlikely to bring Montgomery back.

Nevertheless, there’d been chatter throughout the winter that the left-hander preferred to stay in Arlington and was hopeful of working out a deal once the Rangers finalized their TV contract to remain on Bally Sports for the upcoming season. While their 2024 TV deal was approved last week, Young’s comments from yesterday indicate it doesn’t meaningfully change the organization’s spending outlook.

That shouldn’t be surprising. Throughout the offseason, the Rangers have likely had an idea of the reduced rights fees they’d need to accept if they wanted to keep their deal with Diamond for another year. More meaningfully, there’s still legitimate concern throughout MLB about the local broadcasting arrangement’s viability for 2025 and beyond.

If the Rangers are out of the market, where do things stand for Montgomery six weeks before Opening Day?

Teams With Reported Interest

Angels

The Angels have been loosely tied to both Montgomery and Blake Snell. They explored trade possibilities for a top-of-the-rotation arm during the Winter Meetings and came away empty-handed. After flirting with the competitive balance tax in 2023, their CBT payroll sits almost $50MM below the threshold for the upcoming season. The Halos seem like one of the top suitors for Snell or Montgomery on paper. That’s clouded by an ownership group that frequently pursues puzzling half-measures.

Owner Arte Moreno told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register yesterday that he was “(setting) the budget lower” for the upcoming season. “I’m not going to spend money just to show that we’re going to spend money unless it’s going to substantially change the team,” he added. Perhaps Montgomery qualifies, and the Halos could sign him while remaining well below last year’s spending level, but those comments don’t portend a late-offseason spree.

Giants

At points this offseason, the Giants have been tied to all four of the remaining top free agents. Cody Bellinger is a tough fit after the Jung Hoo Lee signing. The other three (Snell, Montgomery and Matt Chapman) could all still be targets. Roster Resource projects the Giants around $213MM in luxury tax obligations. This year’s base threshold sits at $237MM. Adding Montgomery for somewhere in the $20-25MM range on an annual basis would push them right against that line. The Giants have paid the CBT three times in franchise history but haven’t gone over that line since 2017.

Red Sox

Aside from Texas, the Red Sox have probably been linked to Montgomery most often throughout the winter. Boston ownership has said they don’t anticipate matching last year’s spending. The Sox opened last season with a luxury tax number approaching $226MM. Roster Resource projects their CBT figure for the upcoming season around $198MM. Adding Montgomery would push them towards last year’s line but not all the way. It certainly wouldn’t require they surpass the $237MM mark. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote this week that the Sox were keeping an eye on Montgomery’s market but suggested they’re unlikely to make a serious push unless the left-hander considers a short-term deal.

Big-Market Opportunists?

Mets

The Mets were loosely linked to Montgomery in the early days of the offseason. It doesn’t seem they showed serious interest. After their pursuit of top target Yoshinobu Yamamoto fell short, they pivoted to lower-cost fliers on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea and brought in Adrian Houser via trade. There’s still a case for the Mets to add Montgomery to the upper half of the rotation, but it’d come at a significant cost. The Mets are paying a 110% tax on all spending since they’re in the highest luxury tax bracket and surpassed the threshold in three consecutive seasons.

Phillies

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote on February 4 that some executives throughout the industry believed Philadelphia could be a dark horse candidate for one of the top remaining free agents. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki wrote last week that the Phils didn’t anticipate landing a marquee free agent unless their market collapsed. Zolecki indicated the Phillies would have interest in Montgomery if he took a deal in the three-year range or shorter. If the southpaw pivoted to that kind of proposal, it’d very likely bring in a number of suitors. Philadelphia already has a long-term commitment to Aaron Nola and is trying to keep Zack Wheeler beyond this year.

Yankees

The Yankees checked in with Montgomery early in the offseason. That shows they’re not categorically opposed to bringing him back after trading him at the 2022 deadline because they felt he wasn’t in line to start for them in the postseason. Montgomery threw a jab at the organization before helping Texas to a World Series, telling The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal in early October that “(The Yankees) might have given up on me, but I think it was the best thing for me to get to the Cardinals and get set up with Mad Dog (pitching coach Mike Maddux, who went to the Rangers in 2023). Our pitching philosophies are much closer.”

That didn’t prevent the Yankees from checking back in with Montgomery early this offseason, although they clearly didn’t find his asking price palatable. New York subsequently signed Marcus Stroman but they traded Michael King and a host of depth starters in the Juan Soto deal. The Yankees are into the fourth tier of luxury penalization, so any signing would come with a 110% tax on top of whatever they owe the player.

Dark Horses

Orioles

Baltimore made their long-awaited consolidation trade for an ace last month. Even with Corbin Burnes in the fold, there was an argument for adding another high-end starter to put the finishing touch on an excellent roster. That was true before this morning, but the revelation that ostensible #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL sprain and will begin the season on the injured list could add urgency. The O’s have a projected player payroll in the $96MM range. That’s nearly $40MM above where they started last season but is still a bottom five figure in MLB. With new ownership arriving in the coming weeks and a young core set up to compete throughout the decade, could Baltimore finally make a notable free agent strike under GM Mike Elias?

Cubs

Chicago signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year deal to join the rotation with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. Chicago has in-house options for the fifth spot —  it looks like a battle between Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad and perhaps Hayden Wesneski — but Montgomery would be a clear upgrade. The Cubs are already above last year’s spending but remain almost $30MM shy of the tax line. It seems likelier that Chicago would pursue Bellinger or Chapman if they’re still exploring the top of the market, but it’s not entirely out of the question they make a run at another starter.

Twins

Minnesota is an extreme long shot, largely on account of their own TV revenue concern. The Twins have kept their payroll right around the $125MM mark all offseason. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported at the beginning of the winter that they were targeting the $125-140MM spending range, down from last year’s $154MM mark. Minnesota lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda and has explored rotation additions, but they’re much likelier to add a low-cost arm in the Michael Lorenzen range.

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There aren’t many teams that clearly remain positioned to offer Montgomery a five- or six-year term at $25MM annually. MLBTR predicted a six-year, $150MM pact at the beginning of the offseason. Early reports suggested Montgomery wanted to beat the seven years and $172MM which Nola secured to remain in Philadelphia.

If he pivots to a shorter-term pact, that’d bring most of the teams mentioned above more firmly into play. Perhaps clubs like the Cardinals or the Rangers could also circle back. For a few reasons, however, Montgomery probably prefers to max out the guarantee this winter.

It’s hard to envision him elevating his free agent stock beyond where it currently sits. He’s coming off a career-best 3.20 ERA and was a key part of a World Series run. He’ll turn 32 next December, raising questions about how many prime years he’s still marketing. Teams’ concern about TV revenues could be just as strong next winter as they are now. Montgomery would also run the risk of being burdened by draft compensation if he returns to free agency in a year or two. The midseason trade sending him from St. Louis to Texas rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer this time around. He may not be so lucky if he tries to give free agency another shot.

Which Teams Would Benefit Most From Matt Chapman?

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Spring Training is underway for a few teams, yet a handful of free agency’s top players remain unsigned. Matt Chapman has been the clear #1 option for clubs looking to address third base all winter.

Chapman started the 2023 campaign on a blistering offensive pace that once looked as if it could vault him towards the $200MM mark. He tailed off as the calendar flipped to May, however, most often finding himself in the bottom third of the Toronto batting order by year’s end. A finger injury may have sapped some of his power, but the bigger problem is that Chapman’s swing-and-miss issues returned in full force. While he carried a league average 22.8% strikeout rate through the end of April, he fanned at a 29.8% clip from May 1 on. The end result was a characteristic Chapman season: a .240/.330/.424 batting line with a strong 10.7% walk rate but a strikeout percentage north of 28%.

Five years removed from a career-best campaign in which he hit .249/.342/.506 with 36 homers, it’s difficult to sell Chapman as a significant upside play at the dish. He’s a slightly better than average hitter whose value is heavily tied into his glove. A four-time Gold Glove winner, he rated as 12 runs better than an third baseman by DRS last season. Statcast graded him three runs above par. By both measures, he has been an a solid to elite defender in every year of his career.

A long-term bet on a player who soon turns 31 and derives much of his value from his defense has probably scared off a few teams, particularly since Chapman would require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. Yet there’s little doubt he’d be an upgrade in the next couple years over the third base situations that at least half of teams are set to deploy. Which ones have the spottiest in-house options to handle the hot corner, and could therefore benefit most from Chapman’s services?

Clear Need

  • Angels

Anthony Rendon hasn’t made 60 starts at third base in a season since 2019. Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo can see some time at the hot corner but are better served as bat-first options rotating throughout the infield. This would be a clear weakness if the Angels were one piece away from contention.

Unfortunately for the Halos, they have a handful of potentially bigger concerns. They’re still looking for rotation help. The overall depth on both the position player and pitching sides is lacking. They’re on the hook for $38MM to Rendon for another three seasons. Ownership and the front office probably don’t want to compound the issue with another significant free agent splash at third base.

  • Blue Jays

Chapman’s old team hasn’t done much to replace him. They added Justin Turner on a one-year free agent deal. He can handle a few starts at third base but is more of a part-time option heading into his age-39 season. Turner only started seven games at the hot corner with the Red Sox a year ago. While that’s primarily on account of Rafael Devers’ presence, it also points to the risk the team would face in banking on him for 100+ starts on the infield dirt.

Assuming Turner plays mostly designated hitter, the Jays have a collection of infielders (Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez) to handle second and third base. Schneider has 35 games of MLB experience. Espinal and Biggio once looked like viable regulars but have tailed off in recent years. Clement is a utility player.

  • Cubs

The Cubs might have the clearest need for third base help of any expected contender. Nick Madrigal, the top in-house option, hit .263/.311/.352 a year ago. There was also some concern about whether his arm plays well on the left side of the infield, although Madrigal posted excellent defensive grades in his first 560 1/3 innings at third base. There’s still a legitimate question as to whether the former #4 overall pick makes enough an offensive impact to start on a win-now team.

Chicago’s other short-term possibilities also have notable drawbacks. Patrick Wisdom has power but strikes out nearly as often as any regular in MLB. He’s a below-average defender who’s probably better served as a bench bat. Christopher Morel has never found a defensive home and only started four games at third base last year. Miles Mastrobuoni is coming off a .241/.308/.301 showing. It’s too early to bank on last year’s first-round draftee, Matt Shaw, making an MLB impact in 2024.

Viable Starter, Could Upgrade

  • Giants: San Francisco doesn’t truly need a third baseman. J.D. Davis hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 homers a year ago. That was Davis’ worst full offensive season but still not far off what Chapman has provided in recent years. At the plate, they’re fairly comparable. Chapman has a marked edge over Davis with the glove, although Statcast felt the Giants’ incumbent third baseman took a step forward in that regard a season ago. While it’s fair to question whether Chapman is a marked enough improvement for San Francisco to make a run, they’ve been linked throughout the offseason. New skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman for years across the Bay Area. The Giants could pursue him with an eye towards flipping Davis for help in another area of the roster.
  • Mariners: Seattle is going into 2024 with a projected platoon at third base. They shipped off Eugenio Suárez and acquired Luis Urías. The righty-swinging Urías can pair with left-handed hitting Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Chapman would be a fairly straightforward upgrade, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has expressed a desire to skew away from hitters with significant swing-and-miss rates (although their actual offseason on that front has been more mixed). More meaningfully, the M’s might just be up against ownership’s spending limit.
  • Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets were happy with their internal options at third base. Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball a few days later, but New York still has 24-year-old Brett Baty on hand. Baty had a dismal ’23 campaign, hitting .212/.275/.323 in 389 plate appearances. If the Mets were all-in on the upcoming season, Chapman would make a lot of sense. The organizational goal is instead to hang on the fringe of contention while giving opportunities to young players to see what they have for 2025. If Chapman’s asking price craters and he’s open to a short-term deal with an opt-out, perhaps the Mets could jump in. Otherwise, it seems the job will go to Baty.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia seems content with Alec Bohm. He’s a subpar defender who has done the vast majority of his offensive damage against left-handed pitching in his career. There’s an argument the Phillies should make a run at Chapman and push Bohm to the bench, but the team doesn’t seem to consider third base a pressing issue. Bohm is a former #3 overall pick who had a decent .274/.327/.437 slash a year ago, so the Phils could hope there’s a little untapped potential at the dish.
  • Yankees: The Yankees are planning to turn third base back to DJ LeMahieu. The 35-year-old was a league average hitter a season ago, running a .243/.327/.390 line with 15 homers. The longtime second baseman receives slightly above-average marks for his glovework at third base. LeMahieu hasn’t maintained the star-level production he showed from 2019-20, yet he’s still a solid everyday player. He had a strong finish to 2023, hitting .273/.377/.432 with a robust 14% walk rate after the All-Star Break. Chapman would likely be an upgrade, but it’s not a massive boost on what LeMahieu has provided. The Yankees have tried to move away from right-handed hitters with strikeout issues after overloading their lineup with that type of player in previous years.

Competitive Timeline Question

  • Nationals
  • Tigers
  • White Sox

The Nationals took a flier on former top prospect Nick Senzel to start at third base. Senzel hasn’t contributed much at the MLB level, so this is still a clear area of weakness. Washington hasn’t fully pivoted from rebuilding to making a competitive push, though, meaning it’s probably a year or two early to pursue a player like Chapman. Chicago might be going in the opposite direction, as they may soon find themselves at the beginning of a rebuild. Yoán Moncada is under guaranteed contract for one more year with a club option for 2025. The Sox will likely give him a rebound opportunity and hope to offload some of the money he’s owed at the trade deadline.

Detroit admittedly didn’t fit particularly well within any of these five categories. They’re at the beginning of what they hope to be their contention window. The Tigers don’t have a clear starting third baseman right now but are hopeful that top prospect Jace Jung could push for the job by next season. Manager A.J. Hinch has suggested they’re comfortable rotating the likes of Andy Ibáñez, Matt Vierling and Zach McKinstry through the position as a stopgap platoon.

Payroll Issues

  • Athletics
  • Brewers
  • Marlins
  • Royals

None of these low-payroll franchises are going to spend the kind of money it’d take to land Chapman. Each of Milwaukee (Joey Ortiz), Miami (Jake Burger) and Kansas City (Maikel García) could turn the position to a controllable player they hope will be part of the long-term core.

Already Set At Third Base

  • Astros
  • Braves
  • Cardinals
  • Diamondbacks
  • Dodgers
  • Guardians
  • Orioles
  • Padres
  • Pirates
  • Rangers
  • Rays
  • Red Sox
  • Reds
  • Rockies
  • Twins

These 15 teams all have either a clearly above-average starting third baseman (e.g. José Ramírez, Austin Riley), have addressed the position already this winter (Eugenio Suárez), or possess enough infield talent that can capably cover the position. In either case, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs considering Chapman a notable upgrade on their in-house options to bring him in. That’s true regardless of whether he pivots to a short-term deal.

Extension Candidate: CJ Abrams

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With Spring Training a matter of days away for most clubs (and already underway for the Dodgers and Padres), the time of year during which teams begin to focus on extending their players is nearly upon us. A handful of teams have gotten a head start on extension season already as the Tigers signed top infield prospect Colt Keith to a pre-debut extension, the Astros locked up franchise face Jose Altuve for an additional five seasons, and the Royals committed more than $288MM to Bobby Witt Jr.in recent weeks.

As noted by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, one club that has generally eschewed extensions for its players in recent years is the Nationals. Despite a pipeline of stars that included the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto over the past decade, the club only managed to extend one player from that era of regular playoff contention: right-hander Stephen Strasburg. With that being said, Zuckerman does point out that the club may be on the verge of changing its reputation for rarely extending players. Catcher Keibert Ruiz signed a $50MM extension with the club last spring that could keep him in D.C. through the 2032 season, and as Washington hopes to take another step towards contention Zuckerman argues the club ought to consider a similar deal for shortstop CJ Abrams.

Abrams, 23, is perhaps best known as the former top Padres prospect who headlined the blockbuster deal that sent Juan Soto from D.C. to San Diego at the 2022 trade deadline. Prior to the 2022 campaign, Abrams was a consensus top 10 prospect in the sport. While the then-21-year-old struggled in his first taste of big league action, slashing just .232/.285/.320 in 46 games in the majors prior to the trade, the youngster’s 80-grade speed, plus hit tool and ability to stick at shortstop were enough (alongside multiple other top prospects) to convince the Nationals to part with a generational hitter entering his prime.

Since donning a Nationals uniform for the first time on August 15 of that year, Abrams has largely held his own but not quite reached the tantalizing potential scouts saw in him during his prospect days. Across 195 games with the club, Abrams has posted a .248/.295/.393 slash line that comes in as a touch below average by measure of wRC+ alongside defense at shortstop that Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades as well below average with a -15 figure, though Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saves paints a slightly rosier picture with a roughly scratch -1 figure.

Difficult as the start to Abrams’s big league career has been, it’s worth noting that he’s steadily improved as his time in the majors has gone on. Over the youngster’s final 88 games last season, Abrams slashed .265/.325/.442 with 33 extra base hits in 381 trips to the plate. That performance at the plate was good for an above-average wRC+ of 105, which when combined with an astonishing 41 stolen bases in 43 attempts over that time span made Abrams a quality offensive contributor out of the leadoff spot for the Nationals. Abrams’s defense at shortstop enjoyed some level of improvement during the 2023 campaign, as well: the 22-year-old posted a +4 DRS last year, a figure that put him in the same conversation as regulars at the position such as Bo Bichette and Javier Baez in terms of glove work.

Given his minimal track record at the big league level, an extension for Abrams comes with plenty of risk. At the same time, Witt’s extension in Kansas City earlier this offseason showcased how pricey even pre-arbitration extensions can become after young talents establish themselves at the big league level. The potential savings in the event that Abrams breaks out and reaches his ceiling is considerable enough to make the prospect of an extension one that’s at least worth considering for Washington. As a young, talented infielder who has shown flashes of success but struggled with consistency over the course of his first service year in the majors, one player in particular stands out as a potential point of reference when considering a hypothetical Abrams extension: Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Hayes, much like Abrams, was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport when he lost prospect eligibility during the 2021 campaign. After slashing an incredible .376/.442/.682 across his first 95 trips to the plate in the big leagues during the shortened 2020 season, Hayes came back down to Earth in 2021 with a .257/.316/.373 slash line while being limited to just 96 games by wrist issues. That mediocre slash line still left Hayes as a career .280/.340/.432 hitter in the big leagues, however, a slash line good for a solid 106 wRC+ that dwarfs Abrams’s career figure of 84. While the speed Abrams has flashed to this point in his career dwarfs that of Hayes at the time, the latter makes up for that with his elite glove at the hot corner. In 2021, Hayes posted a whopping +12 OAA at third base, good for the 98th percentile among all qualified fielders. Abrams, by contrast, was in the 4th percentile last season with an OAA of -9.

All that’s to say that Abrams appears unlikely to surpass or even match the eight-year, $70MM guarantee that Hayes managed to secure from the Pirates just after the 2022 season began, even as Abrams is two years younger than Hayes was at the time of his deal with the club. Another potential point of comparison for Abrams would be the seven-year, $58MM extension shortstop Andrelton Simmons signed with the Braves back in 2014.

Simmons was coming off a 2013 campaign that saw him earn a Gold Glove award and even some down-ballot NL MVP votes for his superlative defense at shortstop, an area where Abrams’s profile is severely lacking. That being said, Simmons’s career 94 wRC+ at the time of the deal is in the same ballpark as Abrams’s figure, and Abrams is both younger and a far bigger threat on the basepaths than Simmons, who stole fewer bases across his first six seasons in the majors than Abrams did in 2023 alone. Perhaps most importantly, however, Simmons’s deal with Atlanta will be a decade old later this month.

Given these factors, it’s fair to assume that any deal between Abrams and the Nationals would would likely guarantee the youngster at least $60MM, giving him the largest guarantee awarded to a shortstop with between one and two years of service time in the majors. Speculatively speaking, an eight-year deal in the $60-65MM range would appear to be reasonable extension for both sides, likely with a club option or two at the end as has become typical of early-career extensions for players who aren’t already established stars. Such a deal could allow the Nationals to extend their window of control over Abrams, who is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2028 season following his age-27 campaign, through his early thirties.

Of course, it’s fair to wonder if Abrams would be interested in a deal of this sort. After all, players who enter free agency in their mid-to-late twenties tend to have significantly more earning potential than those who hit the open market after their thirtieth birthday. While the additional financial security offered by this sort of deal can certainly be appealing to some players, it’s also worth noting that Abrams, as an early first round pick in the 2019 draft, received a healthy $5.2MM signing bonus from the Padres. What’s more, Abrams appears to be in line to become a Super Two player next winter. Super Two players, defined any player with between two and three years of service time who falls in the top 22% of his service bracket, enjoy the benefit of reaching arbitration a year early, meaning that Abrams is likely in line for a significant pay raise next winter with or without an extension, so long as he avoids being demoted to the minor leagues in 2024.

The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Competition

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With left-hander Shota Imanaga poised to join Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks in the Cubs’ rotation in place of Marcus Stroman this season after the veteran righty signed with the Yankees last month, one spot remains open in the club’s starting rotation with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp for Spring Training next week. While it’s not impossible to imagine a surprise trade for or signing of an arm such as Shane Bieber (who the Cubs were connected to earlier this winter) or Jordan Montgomery, all indications point toward the Cubs turning their attention towards a reunion with Cody Bellinger at this point in the offseason.

Should Chicago enter the 2024 campaign with only their internal rotation options, here’s a look at who could be under consideration to join the starting five:

The 34-year-old left-hander, in some ways, appears to be the obvious choice for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Signed to a two-year, $19MM contract last winter, Smyly started 23 games for Chicago last year and enjoyed a great deal of success early in the season, including a 10-strikeout game in late April where the southpaw came fell just four outs short of a perfect game. Through 15 starts, Smyly had a strong 3.38 ERA and a decent FIP of 4.33, though his strikeout rate of just 19.9% raised some eyebrows.

Unfortunately for Smyly, the wheels came off from there for him. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 6.88 FIP in 35 innings of work across his next eight appearances and found himself demoted to the bullpen, where he found some solid success in short relief. In sixteen relief appearances from August 13 onward, Smyly dominated with a 1.13 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work and a 33.7% strikeout rate. Those strong relief outings didn’t translate to better performance out of the rotation, however, as Smyly surrendered 10 runs in just four innings of work across his final two starts of the season on August 22 and October 1.

Given Smyly’s superlative results out of the bullpen late in the season and his pronounced struggles as a member of the rotation, it seems unlikely that the Cubs would offer Smyly the inside track to the fifth starter role entering the 2024 campaign, though it’s possible he could earn the role through a combination of strong performance this spring and injuries to other options.

Wesneski won a camp battle for the club’s fifth starter spot last spring, beating out veteran right-hander Adrian Sampson for the role. Wesneski’s opportunity in the rotation came on the heels of a stellar debut late in the 2022 season, shortly after Chicago acquired him from the Yankees at the trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. In six appearances down the stretch for the Cubs that year, Wesneski dominated to a 2.18 ERA and 3.20 FIP while striking out 25% of batters faced.

Unfortunately, Wesneski’s 2023 audition for a rotation job did not go nearly as well, as he allowed a 5.33 ERA and 5.96 FIP across 50 2/3 innings of work over 11 appearances (10 starts) to open the season. Wesneski was moved to multi-inning relief shortly there after and would make just one start (which lasted only two innings) the rest of the season, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work over his final 23 appearances. It’s not hard to imagine Wesneski returning to the starting rotation at some point in the future, as the 26-year-old remains under club control through the 2028 campaign, though it appears likely he has been surpassed by other youngsters on the rotational depth chart for the time being.

The most experienced arm on this list outside of Smyly, the 26-year-old Assad made his big league debut in 2022 and pitched decently in a nine-appearance cup of coffee where he posted a 3.11 ERA and 4.49 FIP over 37 2/3 innings of work. Assad competed with Sampson and Wesneski for the fifth starter role out of camp last year, though his bid for the role was complicated by a detour to participate in the World Baseball Classic for Team Mexico.

Assad’s time in the tournament saw him dazzle with 5 2/3 scoreless innings of work as a multi-inning reliever. He struck out six on just two hits and a walk while touching 97 with his heater. The strong performance in a relief role led the Cubs to enter the season with Assad in that role, though he struggled to a 9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 innings across his first three appearances for Chicago last year, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A.

Upon returning to the majors in early May, Assad dominated out of the bullpen for the next three months, posting a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work across 16 appearances despite a 4.01 FIP. The Cubs then moved him to the rotation for the majority of the stretch run, and the right-hander held his own in the role with a 2.88 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 59 1/3 innings of work across the season’s final two months. Assad’s quality work in the rotation down the stretch with Chicago last summer should give him the opportunity to earn the final spot in the club’s rotation this spring, though its possible the Cubs value his versatility as a player who’s had success swinging in and out of the rotation throughout his young career.

Chicago’s first round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has the most impressive prospect pedigree of any of the club’s likely fifth starter options this spring. The southpaw has quickly climbed the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year with just 48 starts in the minor leagues under his belt, leading to some top 100 prospect buzz this winter with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranking Wicks as the #41 prospect in the entire sport, just five spots behind Kyle Harrison of the Giants. That impressive ranking is largely backed up by Wicks’ performance on the field. In 20 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA in 91 1/3 innings of work while punching out 26.5% of batters faced.

The lefty’s major league debut went nearly as well, as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.95 FIP in 33 innings of work across his first six starts in the big leagues, though he struck out just 17% of batters faced during that time. Unfortunately, Wicks suffered the first blow-up start of his big league career in his final start of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits and one walk in just 1 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers. That left him with a uninspiring 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP across his first taste of big league action, though he did generate grounders at a solid 46.8% clip during that time.

Given the success he’s flashed in the majors and his prospect pedigree, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs hand Wicks the keys to the final spot in Chicago’s rotation this spring, though its possible his low strikeout rate in the majors and ugly final start last year lead the club to believe the 24-year-old southpaw, who has pitched just 33 innings at the Triple-A level to this point in his career, needs more time to develop in the minors before joining the rotation full time.

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The aforementioned four arms appear to be the most likely internal options for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot to open the season, though there are at handful of dark horse options worth a mention as well. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton was the club’s first round pick in the 2022 draft and is generally regarded even better than Wicks after he dominated the lower minors to the tune of a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts last year. With that being said, the 22-year-old has no experience above the Double-A level, where he made just six starts last year, and has not yet been stretched out to the level required for a big league starting pitcher as he topped 75 pitches in an outing just three times last year.

Ben Brown is another prospect who has gotten top-100 buzz for the Cubs. Unlike Horton, he’s already on the 40-man roster and has reached the Triple-A level, though he struggled to a 5.33 ERA at the level last year while walking 15.8% of batters faced at the level. Porter Hodge and Caleb Kilian are two other starting pitching prospects already on Chicago’s 40-man roster, though Hodge has yet to pitch above the Double-A level and Kilian has struggled to a 12.42 ERA across six appearances in the majors, leaving each far more likely to open the season in the minors.

Make Or Break Year: Tyler O’Neill

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At this time two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was viewed as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield.  O’Neill had shown flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, but it seemingly all came together for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning defense in left field.  This all-around performance translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by only 13 players in the sport, and O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.

Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks about a multi-year contract extension during the 2021-22 offseason, though it wasn’t known if the two sides floated a deal to cover just O’Neill’s arbitration years or beyond.  (The Cards subsequently won an arb hearing against O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM salary for the outfielder in 2022, rather than his desired $4.15MM figure.)  Given how the next two seasons played out for O’Neill, St. Louis might have caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, though it’s safe to say that neither side was particularly satisfied with the outfielder’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.

O’Neill has hit only .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a slightly below-average 98 wRC+.  The key statistic there might be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill played in just 168 of a possible 324 games due to several injuries.  A hip impingement and a hamstring strain limited him to 96 games in 2022, and then a lower back sprain and a foot sprain led to more injured list time in 2023 and only 72 appearances.

Injuries also hampered O’Neill prior to 2021, thus making him a tricky player to properly evaluate.  Does that career year serve as an example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever stay healthy, or was even that giant 2021 campaign perhaps something of an outlier even beyond O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL?  A hefty .366 BABIP puts something of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even allowing for the fact that his speed and baserunning ability helped him naturally turn a few extra grounders into base hits.  His walk rate was also well below the league average in 2021, though curiously, O’Neill posted much more solid walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as the 2020 season.

The number that has stayed consistent, unfortunately for O’Neill, is his strikeout rate.  Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout rate ranks seventh among all batters with at least 1600 PA.  While his K% has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s approach has curbed his effectiveness at the plate and made him something of a one-dimensional hitter.

It probably also hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent much of the 2023 season hearing his name in trade rumors.  Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down year in 2022, O’Neill suddenly seemed to become expendable, even if St. Louis was naturally still putting a significant asking price on his services.  It isn’t known what offers the Cards might’ve received for O’Neill at the time or what trades might have been floated or seriously discussed, yet in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis might’ve been better served in moving O’Neill while his trade value was a little higher.

The outfielder’s rough 2023 season only diminished that value, and the year got off to an immediate awkward start when O’Neill was benched for a game for what manager Oliver Marmol felt was a lack of baserunning effort the previous night.  That situation seemed like a harbinger for the end of O’Neill’s time with the organization, yet he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill at the trade deadline even through the struggling club made some other sell-off moves.

A trade didn’t materialize until December, when the Red Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos.  Baseball America ranks Robertson as the 25th-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, yet the trade return has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for the Cards considering what the return might have been for O’Neill even last offseason.  From Boston’s perspective, of course, the deal could be seen as an intriguing buy-low situation.  The Royals and (O’Neill’s former team) Mariners were two of the other teams publicly linked to O’Neill’s trade market, and it’s safe to assume that several other teams checked in with the St. Louis front office.

Health is obviously the biggest x-factor for O’Neill going forward, yet Fenway Park is a pretty nice landing spot for a player looking to regain his hitting stroke.  It’s easy to imagine O’Neill suddenly launching a few homers over the Green Monster, though that same wall will also provide an interesting challenge to O’Neill in his regular role as the new Sox left fielder.  After winning Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers were much closer to average over the last two seasons, so he’ll also be looking for a rebound in the field as well as at the plate.

O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season.  He’ll have all the opportunity in the world with a Red Sox team that seems to be something in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and trying to legitimately contend, and it can be argued that buying low on a recent MVP candidate can be slotted into either direction.  Another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year deals going forward, yet if he can avoid the IL and show anything close to his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a nice multi-year contract could be in offing next winter.

The Guardians’ Shortstop Competition

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The Guardians are set to turn shortstop to a young infielder who hasn’t established himself at the MLB level. Last year’s Opening Day starter, Amed Rosario, was shipped off at the deadline. While he’s available in free agency, Cleveland isn’t likely to bring him back. They should have a competition between at least two fairly well-regarded young infielders in camp and during the early part of the upcoming season.

Let’s take a look at the possibilities:

Among returnees, no one played shortstop more frequently last season. He worked as the primary starter after Rosario was traded. Arias picked up 46 starts and logged 402 innings at the position overall. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a neutral defender, while Statcast felt he was slightly better than average. Arias had a strong reputation as a defender during his time as a prospect, showcasing plus arm strength with the hands and lateral agility to stick at the position.

Arias would be a clear defensive upgrade on Rosario. The question is how much of an offensive impact he’d make. He hit just .210/.275/.352 over 345 plate appearances last season. MLB pitching exploited longstanding questions about his strike zone feel. Arias struck out nearly a third of the time. He chased pitches off the plate with regularity and swung through 19.5% of the offerings he saw. Of the 293 hitters who logged at least 300 plate appearances, only four swung and missed more frequently.

Despite the middling offensive output, Arias enters camp as the presumptive favorite. In a reader mailbag this week, MLB.com’s Mandy Bell suggested the Guardians were likely to give him the first opportunity to seize the job. Arias’ 2023 season was cut short by a non-displaced fracture in his right wrist when he was hit by a pitch in the final week of September. There’s no indication that he won’t be fully healthy for his age-24 season. Arias still has a minor league option, so the Guardians can send him to Triple-A, but it’d be a surprise if he isn’t on the Opening Day roster.

Rocchio, a switch-hitter, has been on the prospect radar for some time. Baseball America has included him among their Top 100 minor league talents four years running. Having recently turned 23, he seems likely to exhaust his rookie eligibility this year.

Cleveland gave Rocchio a brief MLB look last season. He was first promoted in April and bounced on and off the club on five separate occasions. Rocchio didn’t much make of an impact in his first 86 plate appearances. He didn’t hit a home run and limped to a .247/.279/.321 batting line. It wasn’t the most impressive showing, but it’s also probably not worth making a judgment off a limited sample spread across scattered views at big league pitching.

In 537 plate appearances for Triple-A Columbus, Rocchio turned in a solid .280/.367/.421 showing. He walked nearly as often as he struck out. Rocchio took free passes at an 11.2% clip while punching out just 12.3% of the time. The Guardians prioritize bat-to-ball skills, perhaps more than any other team. It’s fair to question how much power upside he possesses in a slight frame — he hit just seven homers in Triple-A — but he’s more of a prototypical Cleveland hitter than Arias is.

Baseball America remains bullish on his chances of carving out a productive career. He ranked as the #2 prospect in the Cleveland system and in the back half of their overall Top 100 this offseason. The outlet credits his advanced feel for hitting from both sides of the plate and gap power. He’s regarded as a solid defender with excellent baseball instincts. Rocchio has one option remaining.

Freeman also falls into the archetypal “Guardians hitter” mold. He makes a ton of contact with minimal power. The right-handed hitter appeared in 64 big league contests last season, posting a modest .242/.295/.366 batting line. He was far better in a 24-game look in Triple-A, where he hit .319/.457/.462 with almost as many walks (12.9%) as strikeouts (13.8%).

While he has a broadly similar offensive profile to Rocchio, he’s not as highly-regarded defensively. The Guardians used him more frequently at third base than shortstop last season, but he doesn’t have a path to consistent playing time at the hot corner unless José Ramírez suffers an injury. Freeman turns 25 in May and is entering his final option year, so this could be something of a make-or-break year for him to establish himself as a long-term piece in Cleveland.

It’d be a surprise if Tena’s in the mix for everyday shortstop work, at least early in the year. The left-handed hitter could play a multi-positional role off the bench and rotate through the position at times. Tena was called to the big leagues for the first time in early August. He only received 34 MLB plate appearances and struggled in that minuscule sample (.226/.294/.290). The 22-year-old (23 in March) spent most of last season at Double-A Akron. He posted a .260/.353/.370 line over 362 trips to the plate. Tena walked at a strong 11.3% clip but struck out in an alarming 28.7% of his plate appearances. He still has an option remaining and will probably start the year in Columbus.

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Cleveland also has a pair of upper minors middle infield prospects on the 40-man roster. Juan Brito, whom they acquired from Colorado in last year’s Nolan Jones trade, briefly reached Triple-A after posting an impressive .276/.373/.444 slash over 87 Double-A contests. Switch-hitting Angel Martínez combined for a .251/.321/.394 line between the top two minor league levels as a 21-year-old.

Brito and Martínez are probably each better suited for second base. It’s unlikely either breaks camp with Cleveland, but they’re both in close enough proximity to potentially factor into the middle infield competition during the ’24 season. If either plays his way to the second base job, the Guardians could consider sliding Andrés Giménez back to shortstop. Giménez played exclusively at the keystone last year but posted solid defensive metrics in his early-career work on the left side of the diamond.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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28 out of the 30 clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, with the Padres and Braves the only exceptions. That means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days.

Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, as the 60-day injured list comes back when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, having gone away shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. This year, the Dodgers and Padres will have an earlier reporting date, due to their earlier Opening Day. Most clubs will begin their 2024 campaign on March 28, but those two clubs are playing a pair of games in Seoul on March 20 and 21. The official 60-day IL dates, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, are February 8 for the Dodgers, February 11 for the Padres and February 14 for every other club. It’s fairly moot for the Padres since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now, but the Dodgers could be moving guys to the IL as soon as today.

It’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. Transferring a player to the 60-day IL also requires a corresponding move, so a club can’t just make the move in isolation.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall, Brandon Belt and many more. A player like Brandon Woodruff, who is expected to miss significant time and will need an IL spot himself, might be better able to secure a deal once IL spots open up. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

NL West

Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson

Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. He will almost certainly spend the entire 2024 season on the IL.

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso

Kershaw is not officially signed yet, with his physical reportedly taking place today. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a coincidence that today is the first day the club can move players to the IL. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected back until late in the summer. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and may miss the entire campaign. May had surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon as well as a Tommy John revision. He is expected to return at some point midseason. Frasso underwent labrum surgery in November and may miss the entire season.

Giants: Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb

The Giants acquired Ray from the Mariners in a trade last month, knowing full well that he underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair in May of last year. He recently said that a return around the All-Star break would be a best-case scenario. Cobb underwent hip surgery in October and isn’t expected back until May at the earliest. His is a more of a borderline case since placing him on the IL would prevent him from returning until late May.

Padres: Tucupita Marcano

Marcano underwent ACL surgery in August of last year while with the Pirates. The Padres claimed him off waivers from the Bucs in November. Recovering from an ACL surgery usually takes about a year or so, meaning Marcano is likely to miss a decent chunk of the upcoming campaign. But as mentioned earlier, the Friars only have 36 players on their 40-man right now, meaning there’s no rush to get Marcano to the IL and open up a roster spot.

Rockies: Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Gilbreath

All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Gilbreath may be the closest to returning, as he went under the knife back in March. Márquez and Senzatela underwent their surgeries in May and July, respectively. General manager Bill Schmidt said recently that the club is hopeful Márquez can be back after the All-Star break but is anticipating Senzatela to miss the whole campaign.

NL Central

Brewers: None.

Cardinals: None.

Cubs: None.

Pirates: JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodríguez,

Brubaker and Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s possible they could be ready to go early in the upcoming season, as some pitchers return around a year after going under the knife. But most pitchers take 14 months or longer so their respective rehabs may push deeper into the upcoming season. Oviedo also underwent TJS but his was in November, meaning he’ll certainly miss the entire 2024 season. The same goes for Rodríguez, who underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery in December.

Reds: None.

NL East

Braves: Ian Anderson, Penn Murfee, Ángel Perdomo

Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was on optional assignment at the time and spent the whole year on the minor league injured list. He could be placed on the major league IL this year if the club needs a roster spot, but they only have 37 guys on the 40-man as of today. Murfee underwent UCL surgery while with the Mariners in June of last year. The Braves signed him to a split deal even though he isn’t likely to be a factor until midseason. Perdomo also got a split deal despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of last year, meaning he will miss all of 2024. Since Murfee and Perdomo signed split deals, the club might try to pass them through waivers at some point rather than transferring them to the IL.

Marlins: Sandy Alcántara

Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will have to miss the entire 2024 season.

Mets: Ronny Mauricio, David Peterson

Mauricio just suffered a torn ACL in December and will almost certainly miss the entire 2024 season. Peterson underwent hip surgery in November with a recovery timeline of six to seven months, meaning he won’t be able to return until May or June.

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Cade Cavalli, Zach Brzykcy

By all accounts, Strasburg will never be able to return to the mound due to nerve damage stemming from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. He and the Nats had a deal for him to retire but it reportedly fell apart due to some sort of squabble about his contract. His deal runs through 2026 and he may spend the next three years on the IL unless those retirement talks can be revamped. Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in March of last year, so he could return relatively early in the upcoming campaign. The Nats will probably only move him to the 60-day IL if they don’t think he can return before June. Brzykcy underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was added to the club’s roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Phillies: None.

AL West

Angels: José Quijada

Quijada underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will miss some portion of the 2024 season. He’ll likely wind up on the 60-day IL unless the club expects him back within about a year of going under the knife.

Astros: Kendall Graveman, Luis García, Lance McCullers Jr.

Graveman recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. García underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will have to at least miss some of the upcoming campaign. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend upon how his rehab is progressing. McCullers underwent flexor tendon surgery in June and isn’t expected back until late in the summer.

Athletics: Ken Waldichuk

In December, it was reported that Waldichuk is rehabbing from a flexor strain and UCL sprain. He and the club opted for a non-surgical approach involving a Tenex procedure and PRP injection. As of reporting from this weekend, he still hasn’t begun throwing. His situation will likely be monitored in the spring to see how his rehab proceeds.

Mariners: None.

Rangers: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Carson Coleman

deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is targeting a return this August. Mahle underwent the same procedure in May and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, knowing he likely won’t be able to return until midseason in 2024. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and won’t be able to return until June or July. Coleman was a Rule 5 selection of the Rangers, taken from the Yankees. He had Tommy John in April of last year and will likely still be rehabbing for the early parts of the upcoming campaign.

AL Central

Guardians: Daniel Espino

Espino underwent shoulder surgery in May of last year with an estimated recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Royals: Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Josh Taylor

Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will have to miss at least some of the 2024 season. Whether he winds up on the 60-day IL or not will depend if the club thinks he can return before June. Wright underwent shoulder surgery while with Atlanta last year and will miss all of 2024. The Royals acquired him in a trade, hoping for a return to health in 2025 and beyond. Taylor was already on the IL due to a shoulder impingement in June of last year when he required surgery on a herniated disc in his lower back. His current status isn’t publicly known.

Tigers: None.

Twins: Josh Staumont

Staumont underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July of last year while with the Royals. He was non-tendered by the Royals and then signed by the Twins. His recovery timeline is unclear at the moment.

White Sox: Matt Foster, Davis Martin

Both of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year, Foster in April and Martin in May. They could perhaps return early in the season if their rehabs go especially well, but they also might need to continue rehabbing until midseason.

AL East

Blue Jays: None.

Orioles: Félix Bautista

Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year and will miss the entire 2024 season.

Rays: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Taylor Walls

Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He could be a factor in the early months of the season if his rehab is going well, as some pitchers can return after about a year, but he also may need a bit more time. McClanahan underwent the same procedure but in August and will likely miss the entirety of the upcoming season. Rasmussen was dealing with a flexor strain last year and underwent an internal brace procedure in July, which will keep him out until midseason. Walls underwent hip surgery in October and is more up in the air as there’s a chance he’s ready as soon as Opening Day, depending on how his rehab goes.

Red Sox: None.

Yankees: Jasson Domínguez

Domínguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. The return for hitters is generally shorter than pitchers, but the Yanks estimated his return timeline as 9-10 months, which will still keep him on the shelf until midseason.

Where Will Jorge Soler Sign?

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Jorge Soler probably didn’t anticipate he’d still be unsigned in February when he declined a $13MM player option with the Marlins. The right-handed slugger is one of the better offensive players to hit the market in a weak free agent class. It’s likely his camp started out looking for a three or even four-year deal.

Whatever Soler’s asking price, it obviously hasn’t materialized to this point. Some of that is a reflection of a generally slow-moving hitting market, but he remains unsigned even as a few comparable players have now come off the board. The recent signings of Joc Pederson and Justin Turner, in particular, could have an adverse effect.

Pederson signed for $12.5MM with the Diamondbacks, while Turner inked a $13MM guarantee with the Blue Jays. Both players now seem set to work as those clubs’ respective primary designated hitters. Arizona and Toronto had each been linked to Soler earlier in the offseason, with the Jays and his camp reportedly maintaining contact as recently as last week. While the Jays could perhaps still make a Soler deal work by giving Turner regular run at third base, that’s a lot tougher than it seemed a few days ago.

There aren’t many other clear fits. Along with Toronto and Arizona, the Mariners, Red Sox and Marlins have been connected to Soler this offseason. Seattle instead reacquired Mitch Haniger and signed Mitch Garver to add right-handed power. Soler admitted a few weeks ago that Miami had shown essentially no interest in a reunion. While Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald subsequently wrote that the sides have had some contact, he suggested the Fish would only seriously consider Soler if his market cratered.

Boston theoretically remains in play. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said a couple weeks ago the team was still open to adding a right-handed hitter to the outfield mix. Soler could split time with Masataka Yoshida between left field and DH. As with Miami, this could require his asking price falling, however. Boston was reportedly reluctant to go beyond two years and something in the $28MM range for Teoscar Hernández. If they value Soler similarly, that’d be a disappointing outcome for the 2023 All-Star.

There are a few other teams that make some sense for a righty-hitting DH, even if they haven’t been prominently tied to Soler. The Mets don’t have a set option at designated hitter. Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote yesterday that the position isn’t a priority for New York, which seems likely to rely on younger hitters like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. The Nationals have a clear opening but are still amidst a rebuild.

The Giants have prioritized becoming more athletic this offseason; signing a defensively-limited slugger like Soler would cut against that. The Angels have ample payroll space and could consider a primary DH after losing Shohei Ohtani. That doesn’t seem like a priority. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that the Halos were reluctant to tie up the position, instead preferring to leave open the possibility of rotating Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as needed in a bid to keep them healthier.

The Cubs have Christopher Morel as a DH possibility. The Padres have a vacancy but are facing payroll constraints and have needs in the outfield and rotation. The Twins could use a right-handed hitter and potentially cleared an opening at DH with the Jorge Polanco trade (thereby freeing second base for Edouard Julien). Do they have enough financial breathing room to make a run?

Will the lack of clear fits deal a significant hit to Soler’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a three-year, $45MM contract. On New Year’s Eve, 62% of respondents predicted Soler would secure a larger guarantee than would J.D. Martinez, who stands as perhaps his top remaining competitor for a DH job. How much should Soler expect to receive and which uniform will he be wearing on Opening Day?

 

 

Which Teams Are Most Likely To Sign The Top Remaining Free Agents?

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in just over a week but there’s still plenty of offseason business that remains unfinished. There are still four free agents that could plausibly land a long-term, nine-figure deal: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman. There are also plenty of other free agents who should be in line for significant short-term deals, such as J.D. Martinez, Gary Sánchez, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, Michael Lorenzen, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more.

Many of those players, including all of the big four, are represented by Scott Boras. He has a reputation of letting his players linger on the market, even if that means pushing things into March or even into the regular season. This tactic has yielded mixed results over the years but there have been many instances of significant deals getting done at this late period of the offseason.

It seems that the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group is having an impact on this winter’s market. Many clubs are trying to cut back payroll due to uncertainty around their broadcast revenue, which is having a domino effect on various players. For example, the Padres’ TV deal collapsed last year and they are now looking to get under the competitive balance tax for 2024. That means they have been less of a factor in the free agent market. Also, they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees to free up payroll, which means that the Yanks didn’t need to upgrade their outfield via free agency.

So, who still has powder dry? Let’s take a broad look at the clubs and see where the payrolls are, compared to previous spending or where the decision makers/reporters have said it will go this year. Payroll data and estimates courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource.

  • Over Top CBT Tier: Mets, Dodgers, Yankees

The fourth and final tier of the CBT is $297MM this year and each of these three clubs are comfortably beyond it. The Mets are at $322MM, the Yankees at $305MM and the Dodgers at $308MM. Each of the three are also third-time payors, which comes with escalating tax rates. Any further spending from these clubs now comes with a 110% rate, meaning it would cost them more than double the amount going to the player.

That doesn’t mean they can’t fit in another deal. For instance, the Mets were already well over the top line last year when they agreed to a deal with Carlos Correa. That deal eventually fell apart due to medical concerns, but it shows that the luxury tax is different than a hard salary cap and teams can continue soaring to new spending heights if they so choose.

The Mets aren’t likely to do something huge in the coming weeks, as they are doing a semi-reset and have limited themselves to short-term deals this offseason. The Yankees and Dodgers each have loaded lineups but questionable rotation depth. However, the Dodgers have avoided long-term deals for pitchers historically, while the Yankees reportedly pivoted to Marcus Stroman when they balked at the asking prices of Snell and Montgomery.

  • Higher Than They’ve Been Before: Braves, Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Rays

Any of these clubs could decide to spend some more, but they are currently set to be in record territory and they would need to be willing to push things even farther than they already have.

Atlanta’s CBT number is currently estimated at $270MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $246MM figure and just shy of the third tier, which is $277MM. Going over that third line comes with increased taxation but also requires a club’s highest pick in the next draft to be pushed back 10 spots. Atlanta isn’t generally a huge player in free agency anyway, preferring to extend its incumbent players while being aggressive on the trade market.

The Astros have gone near to the tax line under Jim Crane but have generally avoided going over. Their only previous season going beyond it was 2020, when the penalties were eliminated during the shortened season. They came into the offseason with their CBT number hovering right around the border, which seemed to limit their activity until a season-ending injury for Kendall Graveman pushed them to get a deal done with Josh Hader. They’re now at $255MM, just shy of the second tier, which is $257MM.

The Blue Jays paid the tax for the first time last year, getting their CBT number up to $246MM. They are now at $251MM, only a bit higher, but the pure payroll is a big jump. They spent $214MM last year and already have $240MM in commitments for 2024.

The Diamondbacks have a franchise-high payroll of $132MM, which was set back in 2018. Last year was a financial mixed bag, as they made a surprise run to the World Series and netted some extra playoff revenue but their TV deal also collapsed. They’ve been fairly active this winter and are set to start the season with a payroll of $142MM.

Despite a cost-cutting trade of Tyler Glasnow, the Rays are still in uncharted waters for them. Their $93MM payroll would be a franchise high, with Cot’s having their franchise record as $84MM from 2022.

  • Pretty Close To Last Year: Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, Guardians, Pirates

Each of these clubs is currently within the ballpark of where they were last year. Perhaps that means they are content with their current level, but deciding to make a jump is always a possibility.

The Phillies had a $246MM payroll and $263MM CBT number last year, with those numbers now at $238MM and $253MM. Presumably, they wouldn’t want to cross the third CBT line and have their top draft pick pushed back 10 spots. Since that line is $277MM this year, they could have some room there, especially with a creatively-structured deal.

The Rangers have been very aggressive in recent offseasons but came into this winter with some trepidation. Despite just winning the World Series, their TV deal seemed to be in danger of collapsing. The latest reporting indicates their relationship with Diamond Sports Group could continue for at least one more year, though likely with reduced fees coming to the club. Their payroll and CBT were $214MM and $237MM last year, with those numbers now at $221MM and $243MM for 2024.

The Cards had a payroll of $178MM last year and are at $179MM this year. They may push that a bit further to get another reliever, but seem fairly content with their rotation and position player mix. The Mariners will reportedly end up above last year, but not by too much thanks to their own TV revenue situation. Their payroll was at $140MM last year and are at $135MM at the moment. The Nationals were at $109MM last year and are set for a bump to $125MM this year. They are still nowhere near their franchise highs but they’re unlikely to get back into that range while still rebuilding. A big strike next winter when Patrick Corbin’s deal is off the books would make more sense. The Guardians were at $98MM last year and are at $96MM now. The Pirates have gone from $70MM to $79MM.

  • Some Wiggle Room To The Tax Threshold: Padres, Giants, Cubs

Each of these clubs is within striking distance of the lowest CBT threshold and probably won’t cross it. The Padres have been cutting spending this winter due to their TV deal collapsing and their past aggression putting them out of whack with the league’s debt-to-service ratio rule. Their CBT number is at $215MM, which gives them some room to work with before getting to the $237MM base threshold. But they arguably need two outfielders, two starting pitchers and a designated hitter, so they may have to spread their money around.

The Giants haven’t paid the tax in recent years but still have some space before they would get there this year. Their CBT number is currently at $208MM, with the base threshold at $237MM this year. Even if they want to avoid going over the line, they could still add $25MM or so while still leaving a bit of room for midseason additions. Many predicted them as a landing spot for Bellinger earlier in the offseason but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. Chapman could still fit at third base, with J.D. Davis then moving into a part-time/DH role or ending up on the trading block. The rotation still has plenty of question marks behind Logan Webb, so either Snell or Montgomery would be a sensible target as well.

The Cubs are in a somewhat similar position, having not paid the tax in recent years. Their CBT number is currently a hair below $207MM, putting them about $30MM shy of the base threshold. They could bring Bellinger back after enjoying his bounceback season in 2023, but they may be loath to block outfield prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Third base is a possible fit for Chapman, as he would be a clear upgrade over Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. The rotation has a decent front four with Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks. They could leave the fifth spot open for an audition between Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Caleb Kilian and others, but all those guys have options and limited experience. Adding Snell or Montgomery could push them into depth roles to be called upon during the season as injuries arise.

  • Should Have Lots Of Room: Angels

The Angels were over the tax line in 2023, but managed to limbo under the line late in the year. As they fell out of contention, they put various players on waivers to give away their contracts and also put Max Stassi on the restricted list as he was away from the club while his son was in NICU after being born three months premature.

Those shenanigans worked in getting the club under the line, but that’s beside the point of this post. The key takeaway for this exercise is that they are willing to get near and even cross the line under the right circumstances. Even though Shohei Ohtani is now gone, general manager Perry Minasian has clearly stated the club still plans to compete this year. To that end, they have bolstered their club by spending on the bullpen, having signed Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García and Adam Cimber.

Even with those deals, the club still has a huge amount of space before getting near the $237MM base threshold of the CBT. They are currently just over $187MM, giving them roughly $50MM of space to work with even if they want to stay under the line to start the year. The rotation was a disappointment in 2023 and adding to their current group with someone like Snell or Montgomery would make sense. They current project to have Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Chase Silseth as their starters. There’s talent in that group but clear room for improvement as well. Silseth still has options and less than 130 innings pitched above the Double-A level, so bumping him to sixth on the depth chart would be defensible.

On the position player side of things, the Halos technically have a third baseman in Anthony Rendon, but he’s about to turn 34 and hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2019. Having two players on huge deals for the same position wouldn’t be the best use of resources, but Chapman could push Rendon into a regular designated hitter role now that Ohtani has vacated that spot. In the outfield, Bellinger could take a corner and occasionally spell Trout in center. Those two, along with Aaron Hicks and Taylor Ward, could plausibly share the three outfield jobs and the DH role, while pushing Mickey Moniak into the fourth outfielder gig.

  • Should Have Some Room: Twins, Brewers, Marlins, Royals, Athletics

The Twins have had some payroll issues due to their TV revenue situation but they recently cleared some space with the Jorge Polanco trade. They reportedly want to be in the $125-140MM range and are currently at $118MM. The resurrection of Diamond Sports Group might allow them to keep that relationship going for one more year, so perhaps they could push things to the higher end of that range. They were at $159MM last year but have been planning on a cut due to the TV revenue situation.

The Brewers had a $126MM payroll last year and are just at $117MM right now. They generally aren’t huge free agent spenders but made a notable addition with the recent signing of Rhys Hoskins. The Marlins were at $110MM last year but have been extremely quiet this offseason. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hasn’t signed any free agents yet, so the payroll is at just $97MM. The Royals have made a huge jump from last year, going from $91MM to $113MM. General manager J.J. Picollo has suggested the club is fairly content with the current roster, but then they signed Adam Frazier. Perhaps more small moves could be coming since they’ve had the payroll as high as $143MM in the past.

As for the Athletics, they will spend on something. General manager David Forst said he expects a higher payroll than last year. They were at $59MM in 2023 but are only at $40MM for the upcoming season, though Alex Wood will bump that slightly when the details of his deal are revealed. Despite their aggressive rebuild, they spent on guys like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Shintaro Fujinami, Jesús Aguilar and Drew Rucinski last winter. With the club departing Oakland after this year and headed for another last-place finish, it won’t be the first choice for many free agents but it could be a fallback plan for some.

  • Below Past Levels But Might Not Spend: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, Rockies, White Sox

These clubs are all below their franchise highs in terms of spending, but there are other reasons to suggest a big deal might not be forthcoming in the next few weeks. The Orioles have had payrolls as high as $164MM, but that was back in 2017 when Peter Angelos was still running things. Since then, his son John has taken over as “control person”. The club underwent an aggressive rebuild, which naturally dropped the payroll, but they haven’t changed their spending habits even though the rebuild is over.

The won the American League East last year but still haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in 2018. Their most significant signing this winter has been a one-year pact for Craig Kimbrel. This week, it was reported that the club is being sold from the Angelos family to a new investment group, but that still requires league approval. That could change the club’s behavior down the road but it’s unclear if it will have an immediate impact.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been dialing back the spending in recent years and don’t seem to be bringing it back. Despite the “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that the club will probably have a lower payroll than last year. Broadly speaking, it seems the club is in wait-and-see mode as it evaluates some younger players before deciding on a path forward.

The Tigers and Reds have each been active in upgrading their rosters for the upcoming season, but neither is in record territory. Thanks to mega contracts for Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto expiring, each club has been able to spend on free agents without setting any franchise records. The Tigers had a payroll of $200MM as recently as 2017, but their signings of Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller (plus the acquisition of Mark Canha) have only pushed them to $108MM for this year. The Reds were at $127MM in 2019 but are only at $100MM now, despite signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter. But Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris has spoken many times about the perils of making bold moves too early, something the club knows too well after their deals for Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez didn’t work out in 2022. As for the Reds, this year’s payroll is already a bump from last year’s $87MM and they don’t have huge holes on the roster.

The Rockies and White Sox are each below their past spending levels but both clubs are coming off disastrous seasons and aren’t well positioned to make a bold strike. There would be plenty of room for short-term veteran additions, however.

Five Potential Trade Fits For Joey Bart

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Joey Bart has been a speculative trade candidate for at least a year. The Giants selected him with the #2 overall pick in the 2018 draft. A few months later, they changed front offices, tabbing Farhan Zaidi to lead baseball operations. Two seasons thereafter, the front office drafted another catcher in the top 15.

That player, Patrick Bailey, now seems the organization’s long-term answer. He reached the big leagues last year and impressed defensively. Bailey rated as a high-end framer and cut down an excellent 28.4% of basestealers. His bat faded after a hot start, but he was impressive enough behind the dish to secure a seventh-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year balloting.

Bart, on the other hand, has not performed at the level expected of such a high draft choice. He has rated as a below-average defender by most public metrics. In 503 MLB plate appearances spread over the last four seasons, he’s hitting .219/.288/.335. Bart has hit 11 home runs but has punched out in over 35% of his trips to the plate.

As a result, he hasn’t secured a lasting spot on the MLB roster. He spent most of last year’s second half on optional assignment to Triple-A Sacramento. Bart’s .248/.357/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances at the top minor league level was below-average. Having turned 27 last month, he’s running out of opportunities to establish himself.

With Bailey having clearly surpassed Bart on the depth chart, the latter was floated as a trade candidate last winter and in advance of the ’23 deadline. San Francisco never found an offer to their liking and held him as minor league depth. That’s no longer possible. Last season was Bart’s final option year. The Giants can’t send him back to Triple-A without first exposing him to waivers.

They have three possibilities: carry him on the MLB roster, waive him, or trade him. It’s unlikely they’ll choose the first course of action. The Giants added Tom Murphy on a two-year, $8.25MM free agent deal to serve as Bailey’s backup. Last year’s Rule 5 selection Blake Sabol is still on the 40-man roster, although he can now be optioned to the minors (which isn’t possible for a Rule 5 pick in their rookie season). Bart is arguably fourth on the organizational hierarchy. Unless San Francisco plans to carry three catchers, he’s not going to make the team barring a spring injury to Bailey or Murphy.

While there’s some chance that his stock has fallen to the point that San Francisco could simply run him through waivers, they’d surely prefer to recoup something in trade rather than risk losing him for nothing. While this isn’t meant to be an exhaustive list, we’ll highlight a few teams that might consider Bart an upgrade over their current backup catcher.

  • Brewers: Milwaukee lost Víctor Caratini to the Astros in free agency. They already have their franchise catcher in William Contreras but could consider a depth addition. Milwaukee signed Eric Haase to a big league free agent deal. He’s currently penciled in for the job, but he signed for just $1MM and is coming off a dismal .201/.247/.281 showing in 89 games between the Tigers and Guardians. Haase is already 31 and not a highly-regarded defensive catcher, so the Brewers probably aren’t firmly committed to him holding the backup job. Bart’s mediocre framing metrics might not be a huge concern for a team that has done an excellent job developing the receiving skills of Omar Narváez and Contreras in recent years.
  • Diamondbacks: Arizona is going into camp with a competition for the backup job behind Gabriel Moreno. The Snakes have added Tucker Barnhart and former highly-regarded prospect Ronaldo Hernández on minor league deals. They’re trying to push José Herrera, who is on the 40-man roster but only carries a .198/.272/.231 slash line at the MLB level. Herrera has one more option year.
  • Marlins: New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made one addition behind the plate, acquiring Christian Bethancourt in a cash trade with the Guardians. He joins Nick Fortes, who hit just .204/.263/.299 last season, as the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote last week the Fish would be content with a Bethancourt-Fortes tandem, but they could jump on an opportunity to add Bart for a minimal cost. Fortes still has two options remaining.
  • Pirates: Pittsburgh lost presumptive starter Endy Rodríguez for the season thanks to an elbow injury suffered in winter ball. Former first overall pick Henry Davis should get the majority of the playing time behind the dish. Pittsburgh’s backup options are Ali Sánchez (who is out of options but signed a major league deal in December) and Jason Delay. The Bucs would probably have to waive Sánchez if they add Bart. The question is whether they prefer the former’s defensive stability over the latter’s potentially higher ceiling.
  • Rays: Tampa Bay is going to do something at catcher. Waiving Bethancourt left them with defensive specialist René Pinto as the only backstop on their 40-man roster. Rob Brantly and Alex Jackson are in the organization as non-roster players. The Rays typically emphasize defense behind the dish, so perhaps they’re not enamored with Bart, but no one has a clearer ability to carry him on the MLB team.
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