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The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities

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Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.

There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.

Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:

While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.

The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.

Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.

The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.

Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.

Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.

That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.

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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.

Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.

The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.

Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.

Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen

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In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a group of high-profile free agents still available this offseason. They’re all represented by the same agency. A few people have pointed this out. There were four of them, and with Cody Bellinger’s new deal with the Cubs, there are now three. (Although J.D. Martinez still could be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some mild attention around the baseball world.

So much focus has been placed on the “Boras Four” — and not just for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the fact that the free agent market still has a handful of good, quality big leaguers who can help teams. None rejected a qualifying offer. None are looking for nine-figure deals. None will require a team to commit money into the 2028 season or beyond.

Arguably most prominent among the remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is fresh off a career-high 153 innings in what was only his second full season as a starter after a six-year run in the Cincinnati bullpen.

Lorenzen isn’t an ace, but he started 25 games last year (plus four relief appearances) and made the All-Star team after a strong first half of the season with the Tigers. Part of his selection to the Midsummer Classic was by default — every team needs an All-Star representative, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — but that shouldn’t be used to downplay the strength of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.

Heading into the All-Star Game, Lorenzen was sporting a solid but unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d started 15 games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was providing fine value. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning in the All-Star Game, and then came roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his best stretch of the season. The right-hander finished his first half with five shutout frames and began the second half with another 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the time the Phillies traded for him in the run-up to the annual trade deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.

By now, most fans and readers are familiar with Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs through eight excellent innings in his team debut before blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter during his first appearance pitching in front of Philly fans at Citizens Bank Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way to 3.23. From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 K/BB ratio.

And, just as most readers were likely already aware of those heights, the subsequent lows for Lorenzen have also been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that same Nationals offense, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch where he was torched for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies were always likely to move Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his experience in the role and the strength of the top of their staff, but they took that step several weeks early.

Lorenzen finished out the year with four shutout innings of relief across three appearances, but that did little to repair the damage of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 41% grounder rate and 1.18 HR/9 — solid production for a fourth starter but nowhere near as enticing as his numbers looked with just six weeks to go in the season.

It’s worth wondering the extent to which Lorenzen simply wore down. He pitched only 110 1/3 innings the year prior between the big leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch more than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping up to more than 150 frames on the year meant pushing his body to levels it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season back in 2015 — his rookie MLB campaign and final season as a starter before the Reds moved him to relief.

Despite the shaky finish, Lorenzen wound up with solid numbers on the season for a second straight year. He’s yet to make a full slate of 30+ starts in a season, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could do so in 2024-25 after building up to 153 innings in 2023. And dating back to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 44.5% ground-ball rate. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a nice 32.6% clip and logged a 10.2% swinging-strike rate that’s not far below the 11.1% MLB average.

It’s not an ace profile by any means, but there are plenty of big league teams that are preparing to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm in the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into one of those spots makes sense for a number of clubs, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the bank. He’s signed one-year deals for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the past two seasons. A relatively modest two-year deal or even a one-year deal at a bump over last year’s salary doesn’t seem unreasonable.

For teams seeking rotation help but unwilling/unable to spend at the necessary levels to sign Snell or Montgomery, a short-term deal with Lorenzen could make sense. That’s not true of every team, however. Let’s take a run through the league and look for some potential fits.

Teams with generally full rotations

Each of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation featuring five veterans and/or young starters who are locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.

Kansas City and Detroit might be stretches to land in this group, but for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would mean pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM salary to the bullpen or cutting him loose. Based on 2023 performances, they’d be better for it, but that’s a lot of money for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to leave that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and any other young arms to try to seize.

Top luxury payors who’d effectively owe double

Each of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxury tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% rate for any additional free agent signings. Even adding Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would mean taking on $9.9MM of taxes and put the total cost of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets recently saw Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder injury, but shelling out nearly $19MM for one year of Lorenzen doesn’t seem like a plausible outcome.

Rebuilding/non-competitive teams

The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at various stages of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three could have been a fit for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, but none seem likely now. The A’s signed Alex Wood and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them four set starters and a deep stock of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen in addition to acquiring Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. They also didn’t trade Dylan Cease. Lorenzen might be an upgrade, but it seems like they’ve added what they’re going to add. The Nationals haven’t done anything to bolster a sub-par rotation beyond signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has effectively declared his team out of the market for additional big league arms.

I’d argue that another non-competitive club, the Rockies, should absolutely be interested in signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of quality innings among their group of incumbents. But Colorado has shown minimal interest in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Field is a tall order.

Payroll and/or luxury tax issues

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them around $3MM shy of the base luxury tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a major penalty for signing Lorenzen — likely just a couple million dollars or so — but they have four locked-in starters and a deep collection of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with top prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not a great fit.
  • Rangers: Despite last year’s World Series win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty regarding the team’s television broadcast outlook. The Rangers could clearly use another arm with each of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured list. The team seems content to ride with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford while waiting on that veteran trio to return, though. GM Chris Young said earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any further additions of note.
  • Rays: The Rays should be shopping in this tier for rotation help, given that they’re relying on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a converted reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of talented but unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, once the game’s top pitching prospect, will be back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but on an innings limit. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) will be back at some point in 2024 but perhaps not until the season’s second half. Getting to that point could be a challenge with the Rays’ current group, but Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (somehow) a franchise record as it is. There’s room to sign Lorenzen for two years on a backloaded deal (particularly if the Rays eventually trade Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM salary), but their current financial outlay makes them a reach — even if there’s a clear need in the rotation.
  • Twins: The Twins have shown interest in Lorenzen but, like the Rangers, have scaled back their spending amid TV revenue concerns. After acquiring Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey suggested he’s likely finished adding to the big league roster. The Twins have a decent starting mix with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it is. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, but an addition apparently isn’t viewed as an imperative so long as the current group remains healthy in camp.

Plausible fits

  • Angels: Perhaps their attitude toward Lorenzen is “been there, done that,” but the Halos have plenty of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, but he has minor league options remaining. Jose Suarez is another option, but he’s also in need of a rebound. If owner Arte Moreno wants to continue his resistance to long-term deals for pitchers, the Angels could bring Lorenzen back without coming close to their franchise-record for payroll or to the luxury tax threshold.
  • Brewers: Gone are the days of the Brewers’ nearly unrivaled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is back to lead a staff that also features a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Hall — acquired in the surprise late-offseason trade of Corbin Burnes — round things out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t far from the big leagues himself. But the Brewers lack some certainty in the rotation and project for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their standards.
  • D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they have some depth for the fifth slot, but none of it is proven. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise record by about $11MM, but if there’s room for one more addition, Lorenzen would solidify the final rotation spot on a win-now club that’s looking to follow up on last year’s surprise World Series bid.
  • Giants: The Giants’ rotation looked like a mess even before injury scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly still in the mix to sign Blake Snell, so there’s clearly money left to spend. Right now, they’ll follow ace Logan Webb with top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are healthy. (Winn recently resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand injury.) Frankly, they could stand to add one of Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
  • Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiety from O’s fans after an otherwise silent offseason on the starting pitching front, but there’s now concern elsewhere in the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is trying to rehab a UCL strain in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to avoid going under the knife after a UCL injury, but the overwhelming majority of such injury scares end in surgery. Meanwhile, John Means is behind schedule and likely to open the season on the injured list due to his own elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, but the Orioles are much deeper in high-end position player prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has just $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They should absolutely be looking for an addition of some sort, and they reportedly showed interest in Lorenzen before acquiring Burnes.
  • Padres: Another team that’s reportedly shown interest in Lorenzen, the Padres have cut payroll significantly and are now more than $20MM from the luxury threshold and nearly $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They only have two clear-cut, proven starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired in the Juan Soto trade, will fill the third spot in the rotation after a strong showing with the Yankees in 2023, but he’s never started more than nine games in a big league season. The other two spots are entirely up for grabs among a group of largely untested arms. There might not be a clearer on-paper fit, although…
  • Pirates: …if there is one, it might be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with recently extended Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in the top spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason. Last year’s No. 1 pick, Paul Skenes, should quickly ascend to the big leagues but that probably won’t happen until this summer. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, but either lack MLB success or are (in the case of Falter and Contreras) are looking to put an ugly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been talking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and other starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his desire to further add to the rotation.
  • Red Sox: Not to be outdone in their need for rotation help amid a shaky collection of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he signs elsewhere or they deem the price too high, Lorenzen could easily fit into the budget of a team that’s nearly $60MM from its franchise record and not close to the luxury tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, but the combination of Nick Pivetta (who lost his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox need quality innings, but ownership clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been followed up with payroll reduction and modest additions on the margins of the roster.

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If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would join the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Giants and Orioles as the clearest fits for a solid, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Finances very likely are an issue for Tampa Bay, however, but any of those five other clubs — arguably in that order — should be able to find room to raise their rotation’s floor by plugging Lorenzen in at a price that won’t break the bank.

What Does Matt Chapman’s Market Look Like After The Cody Bellinger Deal?

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For weeks now, the baseball world’s spotlight has been pointed at the “Boras Four.” Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are all represented by the Boras Corporation and each one lingered in free agency until late February as a staring contest seemed to be taking place between the agency and interested clubs.

The first blink finally came over the weekend, with Bellinger agreeing to return to the Cubs on a short-term, opt-out laden deal. Bellinger is guaranteed $80MM over three years but can walk away after each of the first two seasons, collecting salaries of $30MM in each of those two campaigns.

Now the attention will turn to the other three, and it’s possible there are domino effects of the Bellinger deal, particularly for Chapman. The Cubs were a speculative fit for starting pitchers this winter, but they signed Shota Imanaga and were never firmly connected to either Snell or Montgomery.

But for Chapman, the Cubs were one of four clubs to have been reportedly involved in his market. Adding Bellinger to the club doesn’t eliminate the roster fit with Chapman, as their third base mix is still fairly unsettled. It seems like some combination of Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal will be vying for playing time at the hot corner. Morel has just 180 2/3 big league innings at the position with poor grades from defensive metrics. It’s a fairly small sample, but the Cubs haven’t been confident enough in his abilities there to let him expand it. His potent bat also comes with concerns, including a 31.6% strikeout rate thus far in his career. Wisdom’s profile is somewhat comparable while Madrigal is the inverse, providing solid glovework and avoiding strikeouts but with almost no power to speak of.

There would be an argument to the Cubs adding Chapman to solidify that position. The designated hitter spot is open, which would still give Morel a path to regular at-bats while serving as a utility player, moving to various positions to give others an occasional day off. Wisdom and Madrigal could be useful role players off the bench.

However, the Cubs may be done making impact signings. After the Bellinger deal, Roster Resource pegs their competitive balance tax number just above $234MM. That puts just them barely under this year’s $237MM base threshold. They have paid the tax in the past, but not since 2019. They were technically over the line in 2020 but the taxes were waived in the pandemic-shortened season.

If the Cubs wanted to, they could get back over the line again, but they might to prefer to stay where they are for now. They could use the first half of the season to assess Morel’s abilities at the position and then make a deadline trade if they decide an upgrade over him, Madrigal and/or Wisdom is warranted.

What also might be an issue is that Chapman may be less inclined to take a short-term deal like the one Bellinger signed. While Bellinger in 28 years old, Chapman is a couple of months away from his 31st birthday. Returning to the open market a year from now would have some appeal, since he’s currently saddled with a qualifying offer. Players can only receive one QO in their careers, and that wouldn’t be a concern next winter. He could also perhaps stay healthy and put together a better offensive platform, after he was seemingly held back by a finger injury in 2023. But his primary selling point is his defense, and the appeal of that glovework to clubs will likely only go down as he pushes further into his 30s. If clubs are wary of making a long-term commitment to Chapman at the moment, that’d only be truer next offseason, barring a massive resurgence at the plate.

It’s possible Chapman is looking to bank as much money as possible right now, which might not make the Cubs the perfect fit in the long term. Two of their best prospects are infielders in Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Shaw was just drafted last summer but was in Double-A by the end of the year and may not be too far from the majors. Triantos also reached Double-A last year and then seemed to have a breakout in the Arizona Fall League. Both of them have played second base, third base and shortstop in the minors, but the Cubs are fairly set up the middle. Dansby Swanson is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and is signed through 2029. Nico Hoerner is excellent at the keystone, and his contract runs through 2026.

With Shaw and Triantos on the way, Morel a plausible solution at third base in the short term and the club’s CBT number right up against the line, the Cubs may not want to make a big investment in Chapman. Perhaps that would change if Chapman is open to a short-term deal but, as mentioned, there are reasons why he may not be as amenable to that structure as Bellinger was.

Besides the Cubs, the three other clubs that have been connected to Chapman in rumors are the Blue Jays, Giants and Mariners. The Jays employed Chapman last year and have reportedly been interested in bringing him back, though the rumors connected to the two sides have largely dried up since November. In the interim, the Jays have added infielders Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the roster.

The signings of those two players shouldn’t close the door to a Chapman reunion, as Turner could fill the role served by Brandon Belt last year, serving primarily as a DH while donning a glove from time to time. Kiner-Falefa could replace Whit Merrifield, who split his time between second base and the outfield for the Jays last year.

That means Chapman could still retake his position from last year while leaving the Jays in essentially the same spot as 2023, but they also have an army of young infielders. Between Turner, Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez and Ernie Clement, they may feel they have enough bodies to cover both second and third base. They also brought in veteran Eduardo Escobar on a minor league deal.

Beyond the roster fit, there’s also the financial question. The club opened last season with a franchise-high payroll of $210MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already way beyond that for this year, with Roster Resource putting them at $236MM. They also have a CBT figure of $249MM, already $12MM over the base threshold. Signing Chapman to a significant deal would mean pushing beyond the second line of $257MM. General manager Ross Atkins recently suggested that adding anything to the books would also require subtraction, implying they are at their limit.

The Giants don’t strictly need a third baseman, as they have J.D. Davis at the hot corner. However, upgrading the defense has been a concern for that club after some recent struggles. Their team-wide -15 Defensive Runs Saved last year had them 23rd in the league. Chapman has a tally of 92 DRS in his career, including 12 in 2023. Davis, meanwhile, was at -11 last year. His Outs Above Average tally was much nicer at +5, but even OAA considers him subpar in his career.

Chapman would give the club a nice defensive boost to the left side of the infield, which may be extra important if they plan to give rookie Marco Luciano an audition at shortstop. It’s also been speculated that Chapman’s connections to manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi might play a role, as both of them were with the Athletics when Chapman was drafted by that club.

But there are also reasons why Chapman may not end up in San Francisco. Zaidi recently threw some cold water on the possibility of a notable addition. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s off the table, as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts made some similar comments not long before they agreed with Bellinger. But the Giants are also relatively close to the CBT line, with Roster Resource putting them at $213MM. They have paid the tax in the past but not since 2017.

Perhaps the market for the top free agents has been depressed enough that they can sign one of the remaining Boras guys while staying under the line. That’s especially true of Chapman, if signing him led to a trade of Davis and some or all of his $6.9MM salary. But even if there’s powder dry for another move, it’s arguable that it would make more sense for them to go after Snell or Montgomery, both of whom they have had reported interest in. Their rotation has little certainly beyond Logan Webb, as both Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will be starting the year on the injured list. Webb will be backed up by Jordan Hicks, who is unproven as a starter, as well as inexperienced youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn.

As for the Mariners, they are currently slated to have a platoon of Luis Urías and Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Both of them are coming off poor seasons, with Rojas finishing with a wRC+ of 78 and Urias at 83. Even though Chapman struggled a bit last year, his wRC+ still finished at 110. He’s also a better defender than either of them and would give the club a clear upgrade.

Despite the roster fit, general manager Justin Hollander recently said the club’s upcoming additions would likely be more marginal in nature. The M’s had an Opening Day payroll of $137MM last year, per Cot’s, and Roster Resource puts them at $135MM going into this year. They’ve been as high as $158MM in the past but it’s been reported that their TV revenue uncertainty may prevent them from pushing far beyond last year’s figure.

There are other clubs that could make for speculative fits but they haven’t yet been meaningfully connected to Chapman in his nearly four months on the open market. The Angels could sign him and bump Anthony Rendon into a DH role, but their rotation also needs upgrading and owner Arte Moreno recently said the club will have a lower payroll this year. The Mets have an uncertain third base mix but seem willing to let Brett Baty and Mark Vientos battle for time there, and they are facing a 110% tax bill on any further spending at this point. The Yankees could bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role but are also facing a 110% tax bill on further spending. The Phillies could sign Chapman and move Alec Bohm to the bench but there hasn’t been any indication they are thinking of doing so. They are also looking at sizeable taxes and are only $16MM away from the third CBT tier, the crossing of which would cause their top 2025 draft pick to be pushed back 10 spots. The Brewers could make sense but they also may want to let Joey Ortiz have a shot at third base after acquiring him in the Corbin Burnes trade and don’t usually make huge free agent splashes anyway. Young outfielder Sal Frelick will also be getting looks in the infield this spring.

A couple of months ago, MLBTR ran a poll looking at Chapman’s market. The Cubs were the third most popular choice, getting 19.65% of the votes. Presumably, less readers will see the fit after the Bellinger signing, but let’s find out. Where do you think he’ll end up?

That post also featured a poll about Chapman’s earning power. At that point, almost 60% of respondents still felt Chapman could get over $100MM. That percentage will also likely be lower as he remains unsigned with the month of March just over the horizon, but let’s see. Have your say in the polls below!

Pittsburgh’s Second Base Camp Battle

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With Spring Training’s arrival, the next few weeks will feature a number of camp battles around the league. One position that could be up for grabs before Opening Day: the second base job in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used eight players at the position a year ago. Four of them remain on the roster and could vie for time at the team’s most uncertain infield spot.

Peguero, 23, got his first extended MLB run last year. He appeared in 59 games and tallied 213 trips to the plate. Peguero didn’t produce much, hitting .237/.280/.374 with dismal strikeout and walk rates (5.2% and 31.5%, respectively). It’s not all that surprising that he had a rough go against MLB pitching. Peguero only appeared in seven Triple-A games before being called to the majors. He had spent the majority of the season’s first half at Double-A Altoona, where he turned in a .260/.333/.453 showing with 11 homers, 19 steals, and a solid 10.1% walk rate against an 18.2% strikeout percentage.

Scouting reports on Peguero have credited him with a well-rounded physical toolset but raised questions about his strike zone judgment. He showed excellent speed in his MLB time but didn’t put things together consistently on either side of the ball.

Pittsburgh selected Gonzales, a New Mexico State product, with the #7 overall pick in 2020. He has drawn plenty of walks while hitting for power in the minors but hasn’t consistently made contact. That concern carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Gonzales hit .209/.268/.348 with a 28.1% strikeout rate across his first 35 big league contests.

The 24-year-old was a lot more productive with Triple-A Indianapolis. Gonzales hit .281/.379/.507 with 14 homers in 443 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He drew free passes at a 12% clip and hit for power, but a .369 average on balls in play masks a near-27% strikeout percentage. Gonzales isn’t regarded as a great defender, so he’ll have to take a notable step forward in his pure contact skills. Baseball America ranked him the #9 prospect in the Pittsburgh system this offseason.

Last year’s team leader in playing time at second base, Bae also had a tough rookie season. He hit .231/.296/.311 in 371 plate appearances. Unlike Peguero and Gonzales, Bae had roughly average plate discipline and contact metrics. His issue was a complete lack of power. He only homered twice with 17 doubles and a pair of triples. Nearly three-fifths of his batted balls were hit on the ground.

Bae is a plus-plus runner and stole 24 bases a year ago. He’ll need to contribute more offensively if he’s to play more than a bench role. Defensive metrics gave the 24-year-old below-average marks for his work at second base. The Pirates also gave him a fair bit of center field run and could use him in a utility capacity.

Of this group, Triolo had easily the best results against MLB pitching. The Houston product put up a .298/.388/.398 line over his first 209 plate appearances. He’d need to dramatically improve his contact rate if he’s to sustain anything like that production over a full season, though. No hitter can maintain anything like the .440 batting average on balls in play that Triolo posted last year. (Freddie Freeman led qualified batters with a .370 BABIP in 2023.) In order to offset the inevitable regression from a batted ball perspective, Triolo will need to cut a strikeout rate that sat above 30%.

While he’s clearly not a finished product, Triolo isn’t without promise. He had a strong minor league track record, including a .286/.412/.432 slash in Triple-A last season. He came up as a third baseman but doesn’t have a path to playing time at his natural position thanks to Ke’Bryan Hayes. Prospect evaluators raved about his glove at the hot corner in the minors. If he can carry that to multiple infield positions, he could compete for second base reps.

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It’s likely one of that quartet will get the bulk of the second base time in 2024, although there’s some chance the mix changes before Opening Day. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey has suggested the Bucs could dangle someone from the group in talks with the Marlins about right-hander Edward Cabrera. It’s far from a guarantee that any deal with Miami will get across the finish line, but the front office is still evaluating ways to add rotation help in some capacity before Opening Day.

Beyond this group, the Bucs have two other second basemen on the 40-man roster. Prospect Tsung-Che Cheng hasn’t played above Double-A and might not factor in until 2025. Alika Williams got to the big leagues last year but likely didn’t hit well enough (.198/.270/.248) to compete for the second base job. He played exclusively shortstop last year when Oneil Cruz was injured but could handle second base defensively. Williams’ bat is very light, pointing to a likelier future as a glove-first utility type than a regular.

Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?

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The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.

Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.

Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79

The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.

That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.

While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.

Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8

The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.

In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.

In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.

Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.

Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7

A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.

But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.

They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.

Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73

Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.

They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.

With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.

The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.

Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7

Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.

Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.

Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.

Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?

What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

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Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

 

 

Free Agent Profile: Robbie Grossman

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Spring Training is getting going but there are still plenty of unsigned free agents. The market is headlined by the so-called “Boras Four,” which consists of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, but there are also lots of guys who could be nice under-the-radar pickups at this stage of the offseason.

Just over a year ago, February 17 of 2023, the Rangers signed outfielder Robbie Grossman. The deal guaranteed him $2MM and also came with $5MM in possible incentives. The Rangers had a fairly unsettled outfield mix, with Adolis García’s presence the only certainty at the time.

The switch-hitting Grossman ended up getting into 115 games for the Rangers, drawing a walk in 13.6% of his 420 plate appearances and hitting 10 home runs. His .238/.340/.394 batting line translated to a 102 wRC+, indicating he was just a bit above league average, though his defense was subpar.

It’s not an overwhelming profile but digging a little deeper is where the enticing stuff lies. Though he bats from both sides of the plate, Grossman has always been better against left-handed pitching. For his career, he’s hit southpaws to the tune of .282/.381/.426 for a 126 wRC+. Against righties, his .229/.332/.360 batting line translates to a 94 wRC+. The split was even more stark in 2023, as he limped to a line of .206/.304/.329 against righties for a 75 wRC+ but lit up lefties for a .309/.416/.536 slash and 158 wRC+.

The Rangers ended up going 90-72 last year, sneaking into the playoffs by securing a Wild Card spot in the final weekend of the regular season. From there, they went on to charge through the postseason and win the World Series for the first time in franchise history. That was obviously thanks to huge contributions from superstars like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but small pickups like Grossman and Travis Jankowski played their roles as well.

Grossman’s received a fairly regular role over the years, having stepped to the plate at least 420 times in each of the past six full seasons and 192 in the shortened 2020 campaign. Now that he’s 34 years old and set to turn 35 in the latter parts of the upcoming campaign, perhaps he would be best utilized by a club that could limit his exposure to right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox are reportedly looking for outfield additions with a righty being preferred to match with lefties Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida. The Tigers have a lefty-heavy outfield featuring Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Akil Baddoo. They acquired Mark Canha to add a righty bat to their outfield and the signing of infielder Gio Urshela might push righties Matt Vierling and Andy Ibañez into the outfield mix, though those two may also be used at second base with left-handed-hitting rookie Colt Keith. The Blue Jays have a couple of lefty-hitting regulars in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho. The Twins have a bunch of lefties for their corner outfield/designated hitter rotation in Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Alex Kirilloff. The White Sox have lefties Dominic Fletcher, Óscar Colás, Zach DeLoach and Gavin Sheets competing for their right field job, though they brought in righty Kevin Pillar on a non-roster pact. The Athletics have lefties Seth Brown and JJ Bleday set for regular roles in their outfield. The Mariners have Luke Raley, Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone competing for time in the outfield.

In the National League, the Brewers have lefty swingers Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell in their outfield. The Reds have Jake Fraley TJ Friedl and Will Benson in their outfield mix, with righties like Spencer Steer and Jonathan India perhaps moving off the infield to help them out. The Padres have a wide open outfield apart from Fernando Tatis Jr.

There are lots of plausible fits right now and injuries will inevitably crop up over the course of the season that create other sensible landing spots. Plenty of veteran players have signed for modest deals in recent days, with Amed Rosario and Urshela each getting $1.5MM to fill roles on the Rays and Tigers, respectively. Randal Grichuk got $2MM from the Diamondbacks and Jurickson Profar $1MM from the Friars. For a fairly modest price, Grossman could be a similar piece for another club.

Which Teams Could Still Accommodate J.D. Martinez?

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Much of the offseason focus remains on the so-called “Boras four”: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman — all of whom remain unsigned into Spring Training. There’s one other player from MLBTR’s top 20 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. J.D. Martinez doesn’t have the earning power of his aforementioned younger counterparts, but he’s another Boras Corporation client coming off an excellent platform year.

Martinez was always going to face some market limitations. He’s 36 years old and has started one game on defense over the past two seasons. Some teams simply won’t want to commit to an aging designated hitter. Still, there’s a strong case that Martinez is the best unsigned offensive player. Much of Bellinger’s and Chapman’s value lies in their defense. Teams that just want a short-term boost to the middle of their lineup could look to Martinez.

Which clubs still make sense as a landing spot?

Strongest Fits

Angels: The Halos aren’t going to replace Shohei Ohtani’s production at DH, but Martinez is the closest remaining approximation. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic has written that the Angels aren’t keen on bringing in a full-time designated hitter, reasoning that Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon might be better served rotating through the position to stay healthy. On the other hand, Aaron Hicks is so far the only addition to a lineup that was merely average despite an MVP season from Ohtani. It’s hard to reconcile that lack of activity with claims from GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno that the team hopes to compete in 2024.

Mets: Martinez has been most frequently tied to the Mets throughout the winter. The New York Post’s Mike Puma reported a couple weeks ago that the sides remain in contact. Will Sammon of the Athletic has characterized those discussions as due diligence, writing that New York is likelier to turn to 24-year-old Mark Vientos to gauge whether he can be a part of a contending lineup in 2025 and beyond. It doesn’t seem the door is completely closed, but the Mets are at least waiting to see if the asking price falls.

Longer Shot Possibilities

Cubs: It’d be a surprise if Martinez is the remaining free agent whom the Cubs grab. Chicago has been tied far more often to Bellinger and Chapman, both of whom are cleaner fits on the roster. If the Cubs feel Christopher Morel and Michael Busch can hold their own on the infield corners, that theoretically opens DH. It’d leave the coaching staff without much defensive flexibility, though. Boras and Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts traded barbs yesterday after Ricketts was asked about Bellinger, although there’s nothing to suggest that’ll stop Chicago from engaging on any of Boras’ clients.

Guardians: If Martinez’s long stay on the open market drops his asking price, the Guardians could be opportunistic. They’ve taken shots at first base/DH types before, bringing in Edwin Encarnación and Josh Bell in free agency. Last winter’s Bell signing didn’t work, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have more success with Martinez. Cleveland has Josh Naylor and highly-regarded prospect Kyle Manzardo as the likely first base/DH tandem. Manzardo, acquired in last summer’s trade of Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay, has yet to make his MLB debut. If Martinez takes a one-year deal in a similar price range as last year’s $10MM guarantee, there’s a case for Cleveland to jump in and keep Manzardo in Triple-A for another season.

Padres: As with a couple other teams in this tier, the biggest question for San Diego is their spending capacity. The Padres have at least one outfield vacancy and want to stabilize the back of the rotation. They’re projected roughly $20MM south of the luxury tax threshold and reportedly plan to remain below that line. That still leaves open the possibility of adding Martinez, but he’d likely account for at least half their remaining CBT space. With multiple areas to address (and a desire to leave some payroll space for midseason help), going big on a DH is a tough fit.

Red Sox: On paper, there’s a fit for Boston bringing Martinez back. They were loosely tied to similar players in Teoscar Hernández and Jorge Soler. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been open about the desire for another right-handed bat. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo downplayed the fit earlier this month, though, writing that Martinez’s “unique methods weren’t universally loved within the walls of Boston’s clubhouse” during his first stint.

Twins: If Martinez’s market drops far enough, perhaps Minnesota could jump in. The Twins were middle-of-the-pack in production against left-handed pitching a year ago. They added Carlos Santana on a $5.25MM deal to split time with Alex Kirilloff between first base and DH. Martinez is a much better hitter than Santana, though, so there’s a case for kicking the latter to the bench. The bigger obstacle might be Byron Buxton. He’s moving back to center field after knee injuries kept him to DH work for the entirety of 2023. Would the Twins be confident enough in Buxton holding up physically to sign a DH? They have a projected payroll in the $124MM range after opening the winter with a reported spending target between $125-140MM.

Already Addressed DH

A number of teams that could’ve been suitors for Martinez have gone elsewhere to add a starting designated hitter. The Dodgers (Ohtani), Blue Jays (Justin Turner), Giants (Soler), Mariners (Mitch Garver), and Diamondbacks (Joc Pederson) all once made sense but are more difficult fits now.

The Pirates never seemed likely to meet Martinez’s asking price and re-signed Andrew McCutchen. Milwaukee’s signing of Rhys Hoskins was more of a direct addition at first base, but he’s also a right-handed hitter without much defensive flexibility. The Brewers have a handful of outfielders who could push Christian Yelich to DH at times and also agreed to terms with Gary Sánchez on a one-year deal as a backup catcher/DH option. (Milwaukee still hasn’t announced the Sánchez contract nearly two weeks after it was first reported.)

In-House DH

The Phillies (Kyle Schwarber), Braves (Marcell Ozuna), and Astros (Yordan Alvarez) all have clear starters. The Orioles, Cardinals, Reds and Rays don’t have a set DH but have plenty of options who could rotate through the position. The Yankees could theoretically pursue Martinez and move Giancarlo Stanton to the bench. It’s hard to see that happening given the amount of money still owed to Stanton and the 110% tax they’d need to pay on top of Martinez’s salary. The Royals signed Hunter Renfroe to take a corner outfield spot and probably want to give regular run to MJ Melendez and Nelson Velázquez between left field and DH.

Unlikely To Add

A few teams have theoretical openings at DH but have already declared they’re unlikely to make any more notable acquisitions this offseason. Tigers GM Scott Harris said last week that the team doesn’t have “a ton of at-bats available for another everyday-type bat.” They’ll likely turn to Kerry Carpenter as the primary DH.

The Rangers lost Garver in free agency but seem to be up against their spending limit. Last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford isn’t far off the majors. Texas could rotate a handful of players through DH if they want Langford to get more seasoning in Triple-A. The Nationals haven’t done much this winter and could certainly incorporate another bat. GM Mike Rizzo more or less declared their offseason finished last week, though. Martinez might prioritize a more obvious contender anyhow.

Competitive Window/Payroll Questions

The White Sox, A’s and Rockies are not going to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Of that trio, only Oakland has completely embraced a rebuild. Chicago and Colorado aren’t aggressively adding, though, and Martinez probably doesn’t want to sign with a clear non-contender at this stage of his career.

Miami lost Soler and hasn’t acquired a new DH. The Marlins haven’t brought in a major league free agent at all. It’s a disappointing offseason for the fanbase coming off a surprising Wild Card berth. Given their dearth of activity, it’s hard to imagine they bring in Martinez, even if he’d be a fairly direct replacement for their biggest offseason departure.

What Could Cody Bellinger’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?

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As the top free agents continue to linger on the market, an increasing number of fans have begun to inquire — on social media, in the comments at MLBTR, in questions to the MLBTR Podcast and in our regular chats here at MLBTR — about the possibility of any of the top four pivoting to a short-term deal. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently outlined the potential pitfalls in that scenario for lefty Blake Snell, whose stock isn’t likely to ever be higher than it is right now coming off his second career Cy Young win at 31 years of age. Jordan Mongtomery, likewise, probably won’t have a better platform than this past year’s postseason heroics. Like Snell, he’d be 32 next winter, which won’t do his earning potential any favors. Matt Chapman is also heading into his age-31 season.

If there’s one of the “big four” who might be best-suited to go with a short-term deal, it’s the youngest of the bunch: Cody Bellinger. At 28 years of age (29 in July), a return trip to free agency for Bellinger would come at a time when he’d still be positioned as one of the youngest names on the market. A short-term deal for Bellinger would also allow him to hit free agency next winter without a qualifying offer — he rejected one from the Cubs in November, and players can only receive one QO in their career — and it could provide him the opportunity to “prove” that his 2023 output wasn’t a fluke.

After a pair of injury-ruined 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers. He’d undergone shoulder surgery following the 2020 season, and agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly contended that Bellinger was never fully healthy during that pair of dreary seasons in ’21-’22, when he slashed a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. The Cubs bet $17.5MM on Bellinger bouncing back to something closer to his prior Rookie of the Year and NL MVP form and were rewarded with a huge .306/.356/.525 slash with 26 homers and 20 steals.

It was an outstanding resurgence but not one without its red flags. Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, but his 7.2% walk rate was the second-lowest of his career. More concerning to interested teams was Bellinger’s batted-ball profile. Despite his success at the plate, Bellinger ranked in the 27th percentile or lower among MLB hitters in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. At his peak, Bellinger was a hard-contact juggernaut who ranked among the league leaders in virtually every Statcast category of note. The opposite was true in 2023, and there are likely some teams who wonder whether he can continue to produce at such lofty levels in the absence of premium (or even league-average) quality of contact.

It puts Bellinger in a precarious situation. He surely feels he’s back to his MVP form, but players coming off such a dominant performance rarely have to take a one-year “prove-it” deal. Bellinger and Boras surely feel he’s already “proven it” and that the 2021-22 can now be framed as injury-marred outliers. Teams are clearly wary of regression, if not all the way to the miserable 2021-22 output than to something decidedly less than his 2023 output.

It’s not an identical situation to the one faced by Carlos Correa in free agency two winters ago, but there are some parallels. Both were atypically young free agents and were regarded as strong defenders at premium positions. Both had won Rookie of the Year early in their careers. Neither was at his offensive peak upon reaching free agency. Correa didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason with the Boras Corporation representing him, but he changed agencies and hired Boras midway through the offseason.

Correa’s eventual contract — a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins — shocked baseball, both due to the landing spot and to the fact that top-ranked free agents rarely settle for such a short-term arrangement. He had a pair of opt-outs baked into the contract, allowing him two more bites at the free agent apple.

A similar structure, logically speaking, could provide Bellinger some protection against another injury or regression while still rewarding his massive rebound season with a top-tier annual value. There’s some merits and risk for both parties, even if it’s not the type of deal he envisioned upon bouncing back to such lofty heights with the Cubs.

The problem Bellinger might run into, however, is finding the 2024 equivalent of the 2022 Twins. Minnesota was a clear postseason hopeful aiming to win now but also had plenty of payroll room at that late stage of the offseason. The Twins were also nowhere near the luxury tax threshold. It looked like an ideal short-term partnership (though it’s obviously since turned into at least a seven-year match).

For Bellinger, the landscape looks different. Right now, there are only five Major League teams whose projected payroll is more than $20MM south of their 2023 payroll levels. Two — the White Sox and Rockies — aren’t aiming to contend and aren’t likely to put down a lucrative short-term offer for Bellinger. A third, the Padres, is only facing such a gap between current spending and 2023 spending because they’ve actively been working to cut payroll by as much as $50MM. Signing Bellinger isn’t in the cards, barring a major last-minute philosophical shift. That’s particularly true when considering that the Padres are $22MM shy of the luxury threshold; signing Bellinger would put them right back into the tax penalty when it’s clearly been a goal to reset that level.

The luxury tax is a key issue here, too. Signing Bellinger short-term will likely require a high annual value and multiple opt-outs. For a team that’s already in luxury territory, that means a potentially exorbitant overall price. As such, when looking for Bellinger landing spots on a short-term deal, it’s best to break the 30 teams up into a few different categories. Let’s run through them…

Current Luxury Tax Payors

Phillies: Over the past week, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Phillies jumping at one of the top four free agents on a short-term deal. That’s primarily due to president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski’s comment that he can’t promise that no further additions are coming because an unexpected opportunity can always present itself. But the Phils are a third-time payor who already have a projected $261MM of luxury obligations, putting them firmly into the second tier. Even a conservative estimate of a $25MM AAV on a short-term deal would mean paying a 62% tax on the contract’s first $16MM and a 95% tax on the final $9MM. In other words, it’d cost the Phillies around $18.5MM in taxes on top of Bellinger’s actual salary. Assuming an evenly distributed $25MM, that’s a total of $43MM in just 2024 to sign Bellinger. And, again, on a short-term deal the AAV will likely be much higher. Correa’s AAV was $35.1MM.

Astros: Houston’s $254MM of projected luxury obligations is a near-perfect match with Philadelphia. Unlike the Phillies, the Astros are only a first-time offender right now. They’d owe a 20% tax on the first $2MM of Bellinger’s deal, a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax thereafter. Bellinger would push them into the third tier of penalization, meaning their top pick in the 2024 draft would be pushed back 10 spots. The Astros already have a record-high payroll. Signing Bellinger for even a $25MM AAV would cost around $8.675MM in taxes on top of his salary, require the forfeiture of their second-highest draft pick (by virtue of the QO) and knock their top pick back by 10 spots. Ouch.

Rangers: If Texas were going to push further into luxury territory than their current projection of $243MM (just $6MM over the first threshold), it’d surely be to sign a pitcher — likely Montgomery. The outfield is already largely set with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia, with top prospect Wyatt Langford blitzing toward the majors. GM Chris Young has all but said he’s done signing Major League free agents. This match isn’t happening.

Blue Jays: The Jays are about $11MM over the first luxury barrier. They’re a second-time payor. That’d mean a 30% tax on the first $9MM or so of Bellinger’s deal, plus a 42.5% tax on the next $20MM and a 72.5% tax on anything thereafter (in addition to the same draft losses outlined for the Astros). GM Ross Atkins has said any notable addition would likely require subtracting elsewhere on the roster. The Jays could fit Bellinger into the mix by giving George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time at designated hitter, but Atkins’ comments make this hard to see. Just for illustrative purposes, a $25MM AAV on a Bellinger deal would cost the Jays $9.5MM in taxes, while jumping into Correa range would mean about $15.5MM in taxes (on top of his 2024 salary).

Braves: Atlanta is rolling with a Jarred Kelenic–Michael Harris II-Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield, with Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna at designated hitter. They don’t fit even from a roster vantage point, and they’re already $33MM over the tax line anyhow. It’s interesting to note that between the contracts they ate and the associated taxes, they wound up spending about $26MM to take on Kelenic, which isn’t all that far off from what Bellinger might end up costing — but that was much earlier in the offseason.

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers: The Yankees don’t really have room in their outfield, and the Dodgers/Bellinger relationship might not be the healthiest at the moment anyhow. Regardless, all three of these clubs are third-time payors who are already into the top luxury tier, meaning any additional dollars spent come with a 110% tax. Signing Bellinger to a $25MM AAV deal would mean $27.5MM in taxes. Bump that to $30MM AAV and you’re at $33MM in taxes. A $35MM AAV matching Correa comes with $38.5MM in taxes. All of that is on top of any salary for Bellinger.

Relatively Close to the Luxury Tax

Cubs: The incumbents! It’s not the spiciest take to suggest it, but this still seems like the most logical fit. The Cubs obviously wouldn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign Bellinger, since they’re the ones who made him the QO (although they would give up the right to receive a compensation pick). He’d “block” Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field or Michael Busch at first base, but perhaps only for a year. And, with injuries, both PCA and Busch would very likely still get their opportunities. The Cubs are $29MM shy of the luxury tax threshold and have $195MM in actual payroll commitments. Bellinger would push them well past the $203MM franchise-record mark and perhaps just over the first luxury tier, but should that matter? This is the cleanest and best fit, and a short-term arrangement should only add to the appeal.

Red Sox: Like so many of the teams on this list, if the Sox were to make one more big splash, it’d probably be on pitching (likely Montgomery). Boston is $39MM from the tax line and sits at $177MM in actual payroll commitments. They have the financial wherewithal to do this, but they also have an outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela — with DH Masataka Yoshida also in the fold. This doesn’t feel viable.

Angels: The Angels’ focus should be on pitching, but owner Arte Moreno has historically balked at long-term deals for starting pitchers. The Halos have Taylor Ward and Mike Trout in the outfield, but Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell aren’t the most exciting options for the remaining spot. Moniak hit well in 2023 but did so with a .397 BABIP and 35% strikeout rate that both scream for regression. Adell was once a top prospect but is out of options and hasn’t established himself. Moreno said this week the team will likely operate on a lesser budget in 2024, but we’ve seen time and again that he’s drawn to star hitters and Bellinger on a short-term deal would fit that mold. With $188MM in tax obligations, the Angels could sign Bellinger and still avoid reaching the threshold.

D-backs: Arizona is already at a new record payroll ($142MM) and is surprisingly within striking distance of the $237MM tax line ($189MM). Bellinger wouldn’t put them over, but signing him would require a level of aggression we’ve not seen from the Snakes since they shocked the world with their Zack Greinke signing nearly a decade ago. The Diamondbacks don’t need outfielders, necessarily, but center fielder Alek Thomas hasn’t proven himself at the plate. On a short-term deal, could GM Mike Hazen feel opportunistic?

Padres: The entire baseball world has learned to never say never with regard to San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, but in an offseason where they Padres have been trying to cut payroll by as much as $50MM and have pronounced questions at the back of the rotation, this feels like a bridge too far. If the Friars were to trade Ha-Seong Kim, pick up some kind of arm in that deal and then reallocate some of the savings to Bellinger, you could almost squint and see it. Typing this feels crazy, but that’s often how I feel when writing about Padres moves that actually did happen as well. The Padres are $25MM shy of the tax line at the moment. Signing Bellinger likely puts them over for a third straight year, meaning a 30% tax on a portion of his deal.

Giants: San Francisco already signed a center fielder to a nine-figure deal. They now have an all-lefty outfield and substantial questions in the rotation. It does feel like the Giants have the capacity for one more big move — they’re $33MM from their franchise-record payroll and $24MM from the luxury tax threshold — but if they make that move it’ll probably be on a pitcher. Still, they could probably sign Bellinger short-term and only cross into tax territory by $5-8MM. And since they didn’t cross the CBT threshold in ’23, they’d only be hit with a 20% tax.

Nowhere Near the Luxury Tax

Royals: Let’s get weird! I don’t think anyone seriously expects the Royals to sign Bellinger … but no one seriously expected the Twins to sign Correa. They also didn’t expect the Royals to sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a $288.78MM extension, or to spend a (so far) combined $109.5MM on seven big league deals in free agency this winter. But here we are! This would be a shocking fit — more shocking than the Twins signing Correa — but take a look at the Kansas City outfield candidates: MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, Hunter Renfroe, Dairon Blanco. Bellinger is an immediate upgrade over every member of that group. The Royals currently project for a $115MM payroll and $161MM of luxury obligations. They’re around $28MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, which came back in 2017 and under a different owner.

Mariners: The M’s have been operating under TV-related budget constraints. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has never signed a free agent hitter to a contract larger or longer than Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24MM deal since taking the reins in Seattle. This doesn’t seem particularly plausible barring a late change in approach from ownership. Perhaps the allure of signing a star like Bellinger short-term would be enough to spur that tactical shift. It’s unlikely, but we’re talking about dark horses here, aren’t we?

Twins: Like the Mariners, the Twins have been working to reduce payroll. Their current projection of $123.5MM is right around the bottom end of their reported $125-140MM target range for payroll. Minnesota has been open to adding a right-handed-hitting outfielder and further rotation depth. They did this with Correa, so let’s not rule them out entirely. But if they were to, say, trade Kyle Farmer to free up $6.3MM and then make one more notable addition, a pitcher like Montgomery seems much more plausible than another lefty-swinging outfielder.

Orioles: If the Orioles make another big splash after Corbin Burnes, it seems likely to be on a pitcher. Their outfield is set with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, plus top prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the MLB doorstep.

Cardinals, Brewers: The Cardinals already have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and Bellinger isn’t going to displace Paul Goldschmidt at first base. Milwaukee has a similar situation in the outfield, and they’ve got Rhys Hoskins at first base.

Tigers: President of baseball operations Scott Harris suggested this week he’s not inclined to sign another “everyday-type” hitter, instead preferring to give legitimate looks to the team’s young hitters. With Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and veteran Mark Canha in the outfield/DH mix, plus Spencer Torkelson at first base, there isn’t a great roster fit here anyhow.

Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Guardians, Rays: Five of the lowest-payroll clubs in the game. It seems safe to say no one from this group is going to seriously pursue Bellinger, even on a short-term deal.

Nationals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox: All four of these teams are in some form of rebuild/reset. The A’s certainly aren’t going to spend this type of money. Nats GM Mike Rizzo suggested he’s done adding MLB free agents. The Rockies balked at Bellinger’s one-year price last winter and are in a worse spot now. Maybe you could call the White Sox an off-the-wall dark horse, but would GM Chris Getz forfeit a draft pick to sign Bellinger short-term, knowing he’d either opt out next winter or perform poorly enough to be an unwanted contract in 2025? Doubtful.

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The ideal fit for Bellinger on a short-term deal is a team that’s not already a tax payor or is only minimally over the line. The Cubs have been considered something of a presumptive favorite due to Bellinger’s strong year there in 2023, but as outlined above, they also make sense both from a roster and financial standpoint. Other plausible long-shot options when considering the tax and payroll ramifications could include the Angels and Giants. The Padres could add Bellinger without paying substantial taxes, but it’d run counter to the team’s cost-cutting efforts this winter. Long-shot fits with the D-backs and particularly the Royals sound a bit more sensible than one might imagine at first blush.

We certainly don’t know that Bellinger will wind up going short-term, but he’s the most sensible candidate to do so of the remaining marquee Boras clients, and if he goes that route, it could open the door for some unexpected suitors.

Should Blake Snell Consider A Short-Term Deal?

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This offseason has proven to be incredibly slow, with many notable free agents still lingering on the open market in the middle of February. That includes J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks and many more. But most notably, it includes four top free agents that were generally expected to land nine-figure deals coming into offseason: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.

As the calendar continues moving forward and they remain unsigned, the possibility of creative solutions has to be considered. If some club was willing to give these players a straight deal that matched their asking price, it would likely have happened by now. If they can’t find what they are looking for, they might have to open their minds to alternatives. Things can always change, especially with an unexpected injury. The O’s are suddenly without Kyle Bradish as he’s been diagnosed with a sprained UCL and his status is up in the air. That’s not to say that the O’s will suddenly pivot and sign Snell, merely to illustrate that plans can change quickly for any club.

Players in this situation will sometimes opt for a short-term deal with a high average annual value and opt-outs. For instance, when Carlos Correa first signed with the Twins prior to the 2022 campaign, it was a guarantee of $105.3MM over three years. That was a $35.1MM AAV, with Correa having opt-out opportunities after each year. That allowed him to make a huge salary that year and gave him a decent floor in the event of catastrophic injury or a huge dip in performance, while maintaining future earning power.

Correa eventually triggered that first opt-out and returned to the open market, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants. That deal eventually fell apart due to the club having concerns about his long-term health, but it still illustrates the appeal of taking this path. Even after that deal evaporated, Correa still managed to get a $200MM guarantee by signing with the Twins. Carlos Rodón settled for a two-year, $44MM with the Giants going into 2022, eventually opting out and signing with the Yankees for $162MM. Lucas Giolito is hoping to follow his lead, signing a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox this winter which allows him to opt out next offseason.

The argument against Snell taking such a path is straightforward. He simply won’t have a better platform year. He just won a Cy Young award, the second of his career. He stayed healthy enough to make 32 starts and log 180 innings, allowing just 2.25 earned runs per nine. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high, but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 44.4% clip. The walks could come down a touch, but he likely won’t sustain a .256 batting average on balls in play nor an 86.7% strand rate. Producing a Cy Young-caliber season in back-to-back years is incredibly hard for even the greatest pitchers in history.

That’s especially true for Snell, who hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He also won a Cy Young while with the Rays in 2018, but the years in between his two award-winning campaigns were far less impressive. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 3.85 ERA over 85 starts. None of those seasons saw him pitch even 130 innings, thanks to the pandemic and various injuries. He went on the injured list in that stretch due to a fractured right toe, loose bodies in his left elbow, gastroenteritis and a couple of left adductor groin strains.

Taking a short-term deal would carry the risk of the baseball gods souring on him and his ERA jumping up over 4.00 this year, or perhaps sustaining another injury and turning in a more limited workload. He’s also 31 years old and would be marketing himself as a 32-year-old a year from now. Based on his excellent 2023 season, MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $200MM deal coming into the winter. The Yankees reportedly offered him $150MM over six, but he was hoping for more years and/or an AAV of at least $30MM.

The odds of Snell faring better in next winter’s market are low. Even if he manages to stay healthy and have another great season, he will be joining a market that’s also set to feature the likes of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer, while options/opt-outs could also add Giolito, Justin Verlander, Nathan Eovaldi and Robbie Ray to the market.

The argument for returning to free agency next winter would be that the external conditions that Snell can’t control would vastly improve. It seems fair to conclude that those factors aren’t working in the players’ favor this winter. The collapse of Diamond Sports Group is pushing down the desire of many clubs to spend, particularly into the long term where the uncertainty is greater. Teams such as the Padres, Rangers and Twins have been decidedly less aggressive this winter compared to previous offseasons. This seems to have allowed other clubs to either be patient or address their needs via trade, like the Yankees did.

Beyond that, the Mets have decided to stay away from the top of the market this offseason. They have been plenty active but have spread their money around to various player on short-term deals. They have avoided the marquee free agents, apart from sniffing around the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding for a while, depriving the market of one of the bigger spenders from previous offseasons.

Perhaps things will change significantly in the next nine months or so. Maybe MLB will get its desired streaming package together and the finances of the league will vastly improve as a result. Maybe the Mets have a pretty good year and Steve Cohen gets back into spending mode. Maybe the Red Sox get encouraging development from their young players in 2024 and decide to go “full throttle” for real in the coming offseason. A similar path could be ahead of the Tigers this year. Perhaps the sale of the Orioles will be approved and the new owner will want to make a big splash, shaking up the market. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies decide their rebuild has gone on long enough and it’s time to send a signal to that effect. That, however, is a whole lot of “ifs” and “maybes.”

It’s possible it could work out for Snell if he were to pivot to maximizing short-term earnings. That’s what Trevor Bauer did when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers, an average annual value of $34MM. He had the ability to opt out after the first year with $40MM already banked or after the second year with $85MM already earned.

Instead of focusing on a total guarantee, Snell could push for a record in terms of average annual value. The top mark in that category is currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose heavily-deferred $700MM deal was valued at $46.06MM annually in terms of present day value by MLB and just under $43.8MM by the MLBPA. If he were to get something like $93MM over two years or $139MM over three, he would vault himself to the top of that list.

Snell is 31 years old and could still get paid in his mid-30s if he stays healthy and effective. Jacob deGrom got $185MM over five years going into his age-35 campaign. Scherzer got $130MM over three years going into his age-37 season. Verlander got $86.67MM going into his age-40 season. At a lesser tier, Sonny Gray just got three years and $75MM going into his age-34 season, slightly better than the $63MM over three years that Chris Bassitt got going into his own age-34 campaign.

If the straight $200MM deal isn’t there for Snell, he’ll have to consider other paths. If he were to take something like the Correa or the Bauer deal, he could get roughly halfway to that $200MM target but with plenty of opportunity to go back to the open market and get the rest. He’s currently encumbered by having rejected a qualifying offer, but that wouldn’t be an issue in future since a player can’t receive a second QO in their career. The QO is generally a small detail when clubs are making $200MM investments, but that would be one thing working in Snell’s favor in future offseasons.

Still, the short-term path is fraught with risk. Baseball history is full of dominant pitchers who suffered some kind of career-altering injury and were never the same again. Predicting such things is impossible, and it’s something that every hurler has to at least think about. There’s also the possibility that the market conditions get worse and not better going forward. That’s why having the guarantee in hand is such a preferable path. As the proverb says, the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

What do you think? Should Snell take the best guarantee he can get here in the next few weeks or maximize short-term earnings with a path back to free agency in the not-too-distant future? Have your say in the poll below!

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