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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (7)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (13)

Brewers (12)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (9)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (13)

Giants (6)

Guardians (10)

Marlins (13)

Mariners (8)

Mets (17)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (16)

Padres (6)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (10)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (5)

Reds (10)

Rockies (7)

Royals (8)

Tigers (8)

Twins (9)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (17)

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants disappointed for a second straight year, finishing below .500 after flirting with Wild Card contention into the season’s final month. They fired their manager and head into the offseason in need of star talent to elevate a roster that has been built on solid depth but lacked impact players beyond its ace.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (if all player options exercised): $104MM
Total future commitments: $222MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Giants have been a league average team for two consecutive seasons. They’ve been unable to build off their surprising 107-win campaign of 2021. Pressure is building for the organization to figure things out.

They already made one major change. San Francisco fired manager Gabe Kapler during the final weekend of the regular season. It was a surprising alteration of course, as chairman Greg Johnson had said just two weeks ago that both Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be retained.

Instead, the organization decided a change was necessary. That’s perhaps related to some clubhouse discontent. Ace Logan Webb took a shot at the franchise as the season was winding down, saying the club needed “big changes” to create a “winning mentality” in 2024. Webb didn’t publicly call for a managerial change, to be clear, but Zaidi acknowledged the organization needed “to rethink everything” shortly before Kapler was fired (relayed by Danny Emerman of KNBR).

A common complaint among fans and occasionally heard from players is that the Giants had become too matchup-dependent. They’ve been among the sport’s most aggressive teams in platooning hitters. They took a flexible approach to the pitching staff, generally patching things together with openers and bullpen games behind their top two starters of Webb and Alex Cobb.

All of that was true in 2021, when it worked to great effect. Every major league team deploys those strategies to varying degrees. Yet it’s possible that whomever the Giants tab to lead the team prioritizes more consistent roles for players than existed under Kapler. Zaidi said last week the team hoped to have a new manager in place by the start of the free agent period.

By the time free agency gets underway, San Francisco will have more clarity about its payroll picture. The Giants seem likely to exercise a $10MM option to retain Cobb, who turned in a 3.87 ERA over 28 appearances. The veteran righty is headed for a second opinion on a balky left hip (via Maria Guardado of MLB.com). Perhaps that examination reveals a more serious injury that leads the club to reconsider the option, but if he’s healthy, the $8MM difference between the option price and the buyout is strong value.

San Francisco has no control over the other three option decisions on the table. Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto all have player provisions. Stripling’s and Manaea’s are valued at $12.5MM, while Conforto would make $18MM. Stripling has already declared he’ll opt in after a down first season in the Bay Area. The other two players could at least consider opting out in search of multi-year agreements. Manaea, who turned in a quietly strong second half working mostly in multi-inning relief, seems likelier to hit the market than Conforto — particularly if he wants a guaranteed rotation spot.

They’d join a handful of other notable impending free agents. Brandon Crawford has been the starting shortstop for over a decade. Crawford won four Gold Gloves, was an integral part of the 2012 and ’14 World Series teams, and finished fourth in NL MVP balloting during a resurgent 2021 campaign. He had a stellar run in San Francisco and earned a well-deserved ovation from the fanbase on the final day of the season. He hasn’t hit much over the last two years, though, leading the organization to likely move on.

Zaidi said yesterday the club viewed 22-year-old Marco Luciano as the frontrunner for the shortstop job. It’s a risky play, as Luciano has all of 32 games of experience above the Double-A level. He struck out at a near-30% clip through 242 trips to the plate in Double-A this year. Luciano has obvious power potential and a patient plate approach, but he’s likely to strike out a lot in his initial crack at major league pitching.

That’s suboptimal for a team that hopes to compete next season, although it’s also a testament to the weakness of the middle infield market. Free agency doesn’t offer any everyday shortstop options. There aren’t any locks to be made available in trade. Perhaps a non-tender or declined option (like the White Sox with Tim Anderson) or a surprising trade possibility (e.g. Tommy Edman, Willy Adames) changes the calculus. For now, Luciano appears the in-house favorite.

There’s a little more stability around the rest of the infield. Thairo Estrada is a quality second baseman. J.D. Davis received mixed reviews from public metrics for his defensive work at third base. He’s a good hitter who’s under arbitration control for one more season. Perhaps the Giants could float him in trade offers with Wilmer Flores on hand as another righty-hitting corner infielder. Retaining Davis and keeping Flores at first base/designated hitter would also be a fine outcome. Lefty-hitting LaMonte Wade Jr. picked up the bulk of the first base reps as part of a platoon with Flores.

San Francisco could have an opening at designated hitter. Joc Pederson hits the market for the second straight year. The Giants made Pederson a $19.65MM qualifying offer last winter, which he accepted. He’s ineligible for the QO this time around and wouldn’t be in consideration for it anyway after his offensive production dipped. Pederson is a capable left-handed platoon option at DH, but it’s a rather limited profile that inhibits the team’s defensive flexibility.

Zaidi indicated yesterday that upgrading the defense was one of the club’s biggest goals (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Only the Rockies and Royals, who play in two of the sport’s most spacious home parks, have seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall for hits over the last two seasons. Oracle Park’s dimensions are tough to patrol as well, though few would consider the past couple Giants teams as being among the league’s most athletic.

Letting Pederson walk could aid the defense by freeing a few more DH at-bats for Conforto (if he returns) and/or Mitch Haniger. That clears corner outfield at-bats for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. Rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Luis Matos are options to assume more center field reps in that regard, though the Giants could certainly look for more offense there — especially if they’re already counting on Luciano as an unproven shortstop.

There are few more obvious fits than San Francisco for Cody Bellinger. The Giants showed interest in Bellinger after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter. The former MVP signed with the Cubs, had the rebound year he’d been seeking, and now seems set to land a contract in the $200-250MM range in his return trip to the open market. Bellinger is an above-average defensive center fielder who dramatically cut his strikeout rate this season. He doesn’t have the same power he had before 2020 shoulder surgery, but he’s a well-rounded player and one of the few star hitters available in free agency.

It’s a similar position in which San Francisco found itself last winter. They have a fair bit of position player depth but lack an impact player capable of anchoring a lineup. The Giants tried for Aaron Judge, only to see him return to the Yankees. They agreed to terms with Carlos Correa before the physical led them to nix the agreement. By the time the Correa deal collapsed, all the other star players had signed elsewhere.

While it’s little consolation to the fanbase after another middling season, missing out on Correa and Judge leaves the Giants with ample long-term payroll flexibility. Their 2024 commitments are more than $100MM south of the base luxury tax threshold. They have just over $40MM on the books beyond next season. There’s plenty of room for a splash, whether that’s Bellinger … or perhaps the market’s top free agent.

San Francisco was among the seven reported finalists for Shohei Ohtani during his first trip to the free agency six years ago. That process wasn’t about money so much as pitching the organization to the two-way star, as his earning power was capped by the bonus pool system for international amateurs. There’s no such limit this time around. Ohtani will almost certainly set the all-time contract record. Teams will still have to pitch themselves as legitimate contenders, but they’ll also have to put hundreds of millions on the table.

The Giants’ reported proposal around $360MM for Judge and agreement with Correa on what would have been a $350MM deal offer proof of concept they’re willing to spend on top-of-the-market talent. Yet Ohtani could find himself in another stratosphere altogether. Whether San Francisco ownership is willing to keep pace with potential bids from the Dodgers, Mets, Rangers and others is to be determined. It’s a similar question if San Francisco can legitimately market itself as a perennial contender to the expected AL MVP.

There could be a fair bit of pressure on the front office to land one of Ohtani or Bellinger. They’re the clear top two in free agency. San Francisco could ostensibly trade Davis to accommodate a nine-figure deal for Matt Chapman, though he’s less clear of an offensive cornerstone for a lineup that needs one.

The Giants are set behind the plate. While Patrick Bailey struggled offensively towards the end of the season, the former #13 overall pick rated as an excellent defender and showed legitimate power upside in the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s the clear long-term catcher. Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol played well enough to hold the backup job.

That doesn’t leave much room for one-time second overall pick Joey Bart. The righty-hitting catcher has been mentioned as a trade candidate for a few seasons. He has yet to establish himself as a big league caliber hitter. Bart was drafted by the previous front office regime — Bailey was selected by Zaidi’s front office — and will be out of minor league options next spring. He’ll have to be on the major league roster or made available to other teams. It makes sense to move him this offseason, even though the return would be limited at this point.

Perhaps a team like the Marlins or Yankees would offer a potential back-of-the-rotation arm for Bart. San Francisco will need to add stability to the back of the staff. Webb is a legitimate #1 starter. Cobb, if healthy, is a quality mid-rotation piece.

The rest of the group is unsettled. Manaea could opt out. Stripling spent most of 2023 in the bullpen. Alex Wood is a free agent. Anthony DeSclafani is under contract for one more season but posted a 4.88 ERA in 19 appearances and didn’t pitch from late July onward thanks to a flexor strain.

Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn reached the big leagues in 2023. The former is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects. He’s likely to hold a season-opening rotation spot after a promising debut in which he turned in a 4.15 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks through his first seven starts. Winn had decent results in a hitter-friendly Triple-A environment and seems likely to start next season in a depth role.

Between DeSclafani’s elbow and the risk of any rookie (even one as talented as Harrison), the Giants need more rotation stability. That’d only become more pressing if Cobb is seriously injured. San Francisco has shied away from long-term free agent investments in starting pitching. Under Zaidi, they’ve targeted reclamation plays like DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Manaea. They took on some injury uncertainty with Carlos Rodón but limited that to a two-year, $44MM guarantee. After Gausman and Rodón had excellent seasons that put them in the nine-figure range, San Francisco moved on. While they signed Webb to a five-year contract extension, that’s quite a bit different than signing a top-of-the-market starter in free agency.

San Francisco may have to aim higher this offseason. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the best starters available beyond Ohtani, who won’t pitch until 2025. Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery should exceed the $110MM that Gausman received from the Blue Jays a couple years back. Sonny Gray might not be far off that mark.

The Giants could ostensibly make a run at Bellinger and one of those starters. San Francisco had an Opening Day player payroll around $187MM this past season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve topped $200MM in the past. They’d have only $112MM in guaranteed commitments for next year if all of Conforto, Stripling and Manaea opt in and they retain Cobb.

A strong arbitration class could tack on another $30MM, but that still leaves around $40MM in spending room. A trade of an arbitration-eligible player like Davis or Yastrzemski and/or an opt-out from Manaea would make two large free agent pickups realistic even if the organization kept payroll around this year’s level. If they chose to stick with their traditional tack of shorter-term rotation adds, the likes of Kenta Maeda, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen could offer some stability. Frankie Montas or Luis Severino would be traditional Giants-style reclamation adds.

They’ll likely need to add bullpen depth as well. Jakob Junis, John Brebbia and Scott Alexander are all headed to free agency. While none of that trio is a household name, they turned in a combined 172 2/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball this past season. That’s acceptable middle relief volume that’ll need to be replaced.

The Giants have Camilo Doval in the ninth inning. Submariner Tyler Rogers is an effective setup option. Last winter’s signees Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson were fine in year one. The Giants have high-leverage options but could identify a middle relief target or two on a short-term free agent deal.

There are a lot of ways in which the offseason could go. Zaidi confirmed this week that he’s in the final season of his contract as he enters his sixth year leading baseball operations. There’s clearly increasing urgency to secure a star player and, more importantly, push a fine but unexceptional roster back to playoff contention. The first order of business is finding a new manager. Once the winter rolls around, the goal should be to add a franchise player.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Giants-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 11am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

New White Sox GM Chris Getz will have to be a miracle worker to turn this 61-win team into a 2024 contender, as the team severely lacks both talent and depth.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $29MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for 2025
  • Eloy Jimenez, DH: $16MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 ($3MM buyout) and $18.5MM club option for 2026 ($3MM buyout)
  • Luis Robert, CF: $29.5MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club option for 2026 ($2MM buyout) and $20MM club option for 2027 ($2MM buyout)
  • Andrew Benintendi, LF: $64MM through 2027
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $6.75MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option with 2025 ($1.25MM buyout) and $7.5MM club option for 2026 ($1.25MM buyout)

Option Decisions

  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $15MM club option with a $15MM buyout.  If declined, buyout is paid in 10 annual installments of $1.5M from 2024-33
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout
  • Mike Clevinger, SP: $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

2024 commitments: $84.5MM
Total future commitments: $165.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

“If I had brought somebody in from the outside, just to repeat, it would have taken a year. I could’ve brought Branch Rickey back, and it would’ve taken him a year to evaluate the organization. So even though I had a list of outside people who I felt could do the job, I also had a list of one among the inside people who I felt could do the job as well as anybody I was going to interview. I didn’t have to interview these people, because I knew them all. And I knew that they were qualified but what I did know is that I had somebody inside who could start right away making things happen, and that’s the reason why Chris was selected.”

That’s White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, making rare public comments about a month ago in introducing new GM Chris Getz.  The ever-loyal Reinsdorf had fired team president Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn about a week prior.  Williams had become GM in 2001, moving above that position when Hahn became GM in 2012.  That quote from Reinsdorf tells you all you need to know about the GM hiring process that led to Getz.  Getz’s early front office hires include Brian Bannister, Josh Barfield, and Gene Watson.

Getz spent seven seasons as an MLB player, mostly for the White Sox and Royals, before taking on a player development role with Kansas City.   He then spent seven seasons in charge of minor league operations and player development for the White Sox, picking up an assistant GM title along the way.

To be frank, it’s not clear what specific skills or successes made Getz qualified to be the GM of the White Sox in Reinsdorf’s eyes.  Negatives include the Omar Vizquel-Wes Helms situation, and a generally poor record of White Sox minor leaguers meeting or exceeding expectations.  Getz kicked off his tenure by committing to manager Pedro Grifol for next year, despite the club’s massively disappointing 61-101 record and several examples of clubhouse problems.  Reliever Keynan Middleton, for example, spoke of “no rules or guidelines to follow,” later backed up by Lance Lynn.

From ownership to GM to manager, there is little to inspire confidence in the quick White Sox resurgence of which Reinsdorf spoke.  However, we are mainly here to discuss how Getz might address the team’s many shortcomings in his first offseason.  Reinsdorf said, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” so we’ll take him at his word even though the Sox would need a lot to compete in 2024.  This post also takes under consideration that the White Sox have never paid the competitive balance tax, have never committed more than $75MM to a player, and have never paid a player $20MM per year.

Most of the team’s current catching depth was added by Hahn in a three-day span in late July, as a Kendall Graveman trade brought Korey Lee from the Astros and Edgar Quero was the key return in shipping Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels.  MLB catchers averaged a 90 wRC+ this year as hitters, and neither the defensively-minded Lee nor the bat-first Quero seems capable of that in 2024.  A veteran backstop in the Victor Caratini/Tom Murphy mold would make sense here.

Andrew Vaughn, 26 in April, was used at first base this year after being previously miscast as a corner outfielder based on the team’s needs.  But the bar for offense is higher at first base, and Vaughn’s wRC+ dropped from 113 to 103 this year.  A replacement level first baseman is hardly a win for the club, but the other holes seem more pressing so Vaughn’s job is likely secure.

In particular, the White Sox don’t have much going on in the middle infield for 2024.  They ran through Elvis Andrus, Lenyn Sosa, Zach Remillard, and Romy Gonzalez at second base this year.  The result was some of the worst production in baseball at the position.  Prospect Jose Rodriguez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, reached the majors this year and will be an option.  Adam Frazier could represent an affordable veteran free agent pickup, though for a team that seems oddly obsessed with the Royals, Whit Merrifield may be tempting to the front office.  On the trade market, Jonathan India, Gleyber Torres, or Brandon Drury could be available.

Top prospect Colson Montgomery had his season debut delayed until mid-June with oblique and back injuries but acquitted himself well at High-A and Double-A.  His likely MLB debut next year will be a bright spot for White Sox fans, and hopefully he’ll have shortstop locked up for the foreseeable future.

The White Sox hold a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout on longtime shortstop Tim Anderson.  Anderson sounds willing to play some second base, and could serve as a bridge to Montgomery next year.  But given an abysmal 60 wRC+ this year, a lengthy injury history, and a complicated legacy, Anderson does not make sense at his option price.  The loyal-to-a-fault White Sox could bring him back at a lower rate, but moving on entirely might be helpful in rebooting the clubhouse.  A shortstop-capable addition such as Amed Rosario could be helpful in keeping the seat warm for Montgomery and adding middle infield depth.

With Hahn having shipped off Jake Burger to the Marlins, Yoan Moncada remains the primary option at third base for the White Sox.  Moncada, 29 in May, offered a glimmer of promise with a 125 wRC+ over the final two months, though that included striking out a third of the time.  There’s too much money owed to Moncada to trade him in anything other than a bad contract swap.  If Getz is able to find a way out of Moncada’s contract via trade, he could turn to free agency to fill the void.  If Jeimer Candelario isn’t in the team’s price range, perhaps Gio Urshela could be.  Perhaps more likely, the Sox will look to promote prospect Bryan Ramos early in the season after a solid year at Double-A.

Eloy Jimenez had one of his healthiest seasons in a years, but also slipped to a 105 wRC+ mostly out of the DH spot.  Getz hasn’t said much to indicate his offseason plans, but his mention of getting more athletic has led some to speculate that Jimenez could be on the trading block.  With DH being a relatively easy spot to fill, trading Jimenez for pitching could help with the team’s threadbare rotation.  Jimenez will turn 27 in November and has club options for 2025 and ’26, and perhaps Getz can find a club enticed by his solid Statcast marks and 2020/2022 levels of offense.

Left field is a bit like first base for the White Sox: it’s hard to be happy with Andrew Benintendi’s replacement-level work out there this year, but the team has bigger fish to fry.  Benintendi, signed through 2027, dropped to a career-worst 87 wRC+ at the plate and also alarmingly struggled defensively.  There’s not much to do here beyond putting in offseason work for a hopeful bounceback.

Center fielder Luis Robert is the best reason to watch the 2024 White Sox.  The 26-year-old managed to stay healthy this year with 145 games played, putting up 38 home runs and a 128 wRC+ with strong center field defense.  Robert’s 5-WAR potential was finally realized in 2023, and the Sox have him under control through 2027.

Right field, on the other hand, continues to befuddle the White Sox.  The team mostly turned to Oscar Colas and Gavin Sheets this year, to disastrous results.  Despite coming off a down year, a free agent like Teoscar Hernandez might require topping the largest contract in White Sox history (currently Benintendi’s $75MM).  Even a bargain bin Hunter Renfroe or Chicago return for Jason Heyward would be an upgrade over what the Sox had in ’23.  Given the way Merrifield’s defensive homes match up with the club’s biggest needs at second base and right field and the team’s attraction toward Royals connections, is there any way this match doesn’t happen?

We’ve established that the White Sox have four major holes position-wise, even if we pencil in their mostly-questionable incumbents.  You might already be covering your eyes, but we have to talk about the rotation.

Dylan Cease offered up roughly similar strikeout, walk, and groundball rates as last year, but his ERA ballooned from 2.20 to 4.58.  Hot take: it’ll land between those figures next year.  The bigger question is whether Cease should be traded with two years of control remaining, which most teams would be taking a hard look at given the lack of talent on hand.  But again, Reinsdorf says he’s seeking a quick turnaround (that’s why he didn’t interview any GM candidates other than Getz), in which case the team pretty much has to keep Cease.

Michael Kopech struggled as a starter this season, moving to the bullpen for a few September outings before succumbing to knee surgery. Grifol has already stated Kopech will be viewed as a starter next year.  Once Kopech recovers from surgery (a 6-8 week timeline), new hire Brian Bannister will get to work on turning his career around.  Presumably pitching coach Ethan Katz will be involved as well.

Former prospect Touki Toussaint picked up 15 starts for the White Sox this year, but he displayed the control problems so prevalent in their rotation.  Jesse Scholtens made 11 starts, most of which went poorly after a nice three-start run.  Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito were traded, while Mike Clevinger is set for free agency.

Clevinger, 33 in December, will likely seek a two-year deal after posting a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts.  Clevinger’s subpar strikeout and groundball rates don’t support that ERA, but it’s possible the White Sox bring him back.  The White Sox should add at least three credible starters this winter if they’re looking to contend in 2024.

Assuming the White Sox will not play at the top of the market means ruling out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Aaron Nola.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shota Imanaga are potentially out of their price range as well.  Aside from Clevinger, free agents such as Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen seem possible here.  The club could also take on injury or bounceback cases like Frankie Montas, Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, James Paxton, or Luis Severino.  Guaranteed Rate Field is not viewed as a pitcher’s park, so the Sox may have to pay extra to land any somewhat-desirable free agent.

It’s a bit early to predict the trade market, as few if any teams both hold quality starting pitching and have committed to rebuilding for 2024.  Starting pitchers were rarely traded last offseason, beyond Pablo Lopez.

Getz knows the farm system well (a key reason he was hired), so it’s safe to assume he’s got internal candidates for the 2024 rotation.  The White Sox do not have any major Double or Triple-A successes knocking on the door for next year’s rotation, however.  One sleeper could be former first rounder Garrett Crochet, who is is currently healthy after missing most of the season due to April 2022 Tommy John surgery and a subsequent shoulder strain.

The White Sox have an interesting decision to make in the bullpen.  When Hahn devised Liam Hendriks’s odd club option for 2024 – $15MM with a $15MM buyout – the pitcher being out for the season was the only possible reason.  If the option is declined, that $15MM is paid out in 10 annual installments from 2024-33.  Financially, that’s preferable to picking it up paying it out throughout 2024 for a guy who won’t pitch next season due to recent Tommy John surgery.  So barring a fresh contract with the White Sox, Hendriks is likely to become a free agent.  He seems likely to land a two-year deal with an eye on 2025, so both parties will have to decide whether to pursue that.

The White Sox shed most of their veteran relievers in midseason trades, and holdover Bryan Shaw is a free agent.  In terms of relievers the Sox used in high-leverage situations this year, they’re mostly left with Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos.  Bummer, who posted a 6.79 ERA, is under contract through next year.  Santos showed promise, and Crochet will be in the bullpen if he’s not used as a starter.

One of Hahn’s faults as GM was using too much of his limited budget on the bullpen, but Getz should probably add veteran relief help this winter.  Under the previous regime, the Sox went especially big on the David Robertson (2014-15 offseason) and Hendriks (2020-21) contracts.  But with so many needs to fill, it seems unlikely the team springs for a record Josh Hader deal.  The club could otherwise consider bringing Reynaldo Lopez back, or explore the remainder of the top of the market for Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, or Jordan Hicks.  Aside from those players, we don’t see too many relievers getting three-plus years.

At the least, a competent 2024 White Sox team would seem to need a catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple relievers.  They’d need Robert to stay healthy again and most of the other holdovers to improve upon 2023.  As daunting as that sounds, the White Sox could reasonably add around $75MM in 2024 money without increasing their payroll.  If Getz is given that level of spending power, he’ll at least have the chance to remake the team in his image over the winter.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds made a surprising playoff push just one year removed from a 100-loss season. While they came up short in the final weekend, the influx of young talent reintroduced a jolt of excitement to the organization. They’re no longer upstarts. To take the next step, they’ll need to address the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $50MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Team holds $20MM option on 1B Joey Votto ($7MM buyout)
  • $4MM mutual option between team and C Curt Casali ($750K buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $16.25MM
Total future commitments: $63.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Senzel, Law, Dunn, Gutierrez

Free Agents

Few outside the Cincinnati organization expected the Reds to hang in the playoff mix all season. They made a rapid jump from clear rebuilder to potential Wild Card team as they graduated a number of talented young players, largely on the position player side.

There’s more reason for optimism than there has been entering each of the previous two offseasons. Ownership is clearly happy with the organizational direction. The Reds signed manager David Bell to a three-year extension in July. Last week, they promoted front office head Nick Krall from GM to president of baseball operations in conjunction with an extension of undisclosed length. Brad Meador received the general manager title, solidifying him as the #2 executive.

The focus now turns to the roster. Cincinnati’s first offseason decision is a straightforward one, though it could mark the symbolic end of a previous era in franchise history. The guaranteed portion of Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM extension has wrapped up. The Reds will obviously opt for a $7MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option, sending Votto to the open market for the first time in his career. The $13MM price point is beyond what a 40-year-old first baseman coming off a second straight middling offensive season could find in free agency.

Votto, of course, has constructed a strong Hall of Fame case during his 17 years in Cincinnati. He won the 2010 NL MVP and finished in the top three in balloting on two more occasions. He’s a career .294/.409/.511 hitter who ranks 93rd in major league history having reached base 3581 times, the highest mark for any active player. Votto is one of the greatest players in franchise history and among the most productive first basemen ever.

It’s not a guarantee that Votto’s time in Cincinnati is complete. The six-time All-Star has thus far been noncommittal about whether he’ll continue his playing career. After Sunday’s season finale, he told the beat he “just (doesn’t) have an answer yet” about his future (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds could certainly look to bring him back on a cheaper one-year pact if he wants to return for an 18th season.

While Votto is a franchise icon, the Reds aren’t facing the loss of much 2023 on-field production from any of their impending free agents. They’ll decline their end of a $4MM mutual option on backup catcher Curt Casali. Third backstop Luke Maile heads back to the open market, though the Northern Kentucky native would probably be open to another cheap one-year pact to stick with the Reds if they wanted to keep him as the #2 catcher.

Cincinnati got surprisingly little from that position this past season. Tyler Stephenson entered the year as one of the game’s most promising young catchers. The Reds hoped that more time divided between catching and designated hitter would keep him healthy after a series of fluke injuries impacted his ’22 campaign. That proved to be the case, but Stephenson didn’t hit well. Over a career-high 517 plate appearances, he managed only a .242/.317/.378 line — well off the .296/.369/.454 pace he carried into the year.

He hit the ball reasonably hard, although his grounder rate spiked dramatically in the second half. Stephenson was one of the few controllable position players who underperformed expectations. Given his pre-2023 track record and a weak free agent catching class, the Reds probably give him another chance as the #1 option. They’ll need to sign at least one backup, whether Maile or a similar player.

Cincinnati is unlikely to make many additions on the infield dirt. They have a deep collection of young talent. Spencer Steer can play any of the corner spots on the diamond and saw limited action at second base. He is not a great defender anywhere but hit his way into the lineup across multiple positions. It’s a similar story with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another rookie corner infielder who joined the Reds in the lopsided Tyler Mahle trade with Minnesota.

Steer is the more complete hitter at this point, while Encarnacion-Strand covered for middling plate discipline with plus power. They both managed above-average results in their first extended looks at big league arms — Steer had struggled in a cup of coffee on the 2022 team — and look like potential middle-of-the-order bats from the right side. Encarnacion-Strand saw the bulk of his time at first base and DH down the stretch.

That’s in part because he isn’t a great third base defender, though it also hints at the amount of up-the-middle talent the Reds possess. Matt McLain had arguably the best rookie campaign of any Cincinnati player, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers in 89 games before a season-ending oblique injury. He seized the primary shortstop job. That pushed Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte — both of whom came up primarily as shortstop prospects — to the hot corner.

Marte also raked in a 35-game sample after his promotion in late August. The results were mixed on De La Cruz, who showed the tantalizing physical gifts that made him an arguable top five prospect but also the concerning plate discipline profile that left some evaluators cautious.

De La Cruz concluded his rookie year with a .235/.300/.410 slash through 427 trips. He hit 13 home runs, stole 35 bases and showed top-of-the-scale arm strength with regularity. Yet his overall defensive ratings were mixed and he struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. After a scorching start, he had a rough second half. It was still an impressive showing for a 21-year-old at the major league level. There’s star potential for anyone with this combination of raw power, speed and arm talent — particularly with a switch-hitter who can play on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz’s consistency was behind that of most of his rookie teammates, though.

It’s hard to imagine the Reds starting De La Cruz back in Triple-A to begin next season. They’ll need a spot for McLain, however, and Marte certainly didn’t play his way down. There’s also an incentive for the Reds to carry Marte, who retains his rookie eligibility, on next year’s Opening Day roster. If they carry him for a full service year and he wins Rookie of the Year, they’d receive an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

That surplus is before getting to the player who was Cincinnati’s best position player not too long ago: second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year hit .244/.338/.407 in 529 trips to the plate. That’s league average production, his second straight season in that range. While India started the season strong, his offense dipped by June. He lost a good portion of the second half battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

India consistently receives below-average grades from public metrics for his second base defense. It’s a bat-first profile and he hasn’t hit especially well since his debut campaign. There’s an argument he should be the odd one out of the very talented infield. His name surfaced in a trade rumor around the deadline, though subsequent reports quickly shot down the likelihood of Cincinnati moving him.

While the 26-year-old again stands as an on-paper trade candidate, there’s no guarantee the Reds will seriously consider offers. India is one of the more experienced players on a very young roster and multiple Cincinnati players have suggested he’s a key figure in the clubhouse. India conceded he was affected by the speculation he’d be dealt around the deadline, even taking a game off for a mental reset. The Reds may not want to move him, especially since his trade value is at its lowest ebb during his major league career. Between his defensive grades and middling offense over the final few months, India isn’t likely to bring back an above-average starting pitcher with multiple years of club control — even in a down free agent infield class.

Former #2 overall pick Nick Senzel opened the season at third base after struggling in center field in prior years. He started the year strong, at least against left-handed pitching, but his bat tailed off in the second half. Cincinnati sent him down for a couple weeks in August. While he finished the season on the big league roster, there’s a good chance he’s traded for a minimal return or simply non-tendered.

If the Reds hold the rest of their infielders, that could push Steer into the corner outfield. He’d likely play left field on most days. Will Benson and Jake Fraley each had strong results as left-handed hitting corner outfielders. The Reds shielded both players from left-handed pitching. Even with Steer seeing outfield reps, there’s room for a right-handed platoon bat.

Cincinnati brought in Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers as stopgaps in late August. Renfroe was quickly released, while Bader seems likely to sign with a team that can offer everyday center field reps. Someone like Robbie Grossman or Aaron Hicks — both switch-hitters who are better against lefty pitching — could make sense to fill that role. Grossman is likely to sign a one-year deal worth a few million dollars. Hicks is available to every club at the league minimum salary after being released by the Yankees, so his camp will sort through a number of offers at the same price in search of the ideal team fit.

TJ Friedl doesn’t receive the same amount of attention as his younger teammates, but he played at an All-Star level (.279/.352/.467 with 18 homers) in center field this year. He’s an excellent contact hitter with plus speed and solid defense. Friedl is somewhat quietly a very valuable player, one whom Bell can comfortably plug into a top-two spot in the lineup as a table-setter.

At age 28 and under club control for five more seasons, Friedl is unlikely to be an extension candidate. The Reds could have interest in trying to get a deal done with one or more of their early-mid 20s hitters. Steer is under control for five seasons. De La Cruz, McLain, Marte and Encarnacion-Strand are all controllable for six more years. Extensions for players with less than one year of MLB service are rare but not unheard of.

Ronald Acuña, Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll all signed nine-figure pacts before their first full year in the big leagues. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert signed in the $50MM range before making their MLB debuts. The Reds don’t have anyone who’s yet established at the Acuña, Franco or Carroll level. Those players were all consensus top five prospects who’d found immediate MLB success. Something around Robert’s $50MM could be a reasonable proposal to De La Cruz or Marte if the Reds are interested in buying out two or three free agent seasons. McLain might be a trickier player to value, since he had more initial success than De La Cruz but wasn’t as highly-regarded as a prospect, but he’s also a potential candidate. Willingness to sign an early-career extension varies by player. It’s at least something the front office could consider.

It’s a little less stable on the pitching staff. They signed Hunter Greene to a $50MM guarantee in April. That’s their only contractual commitment outside of option buyouts, leaving open the possibility for more long-term deals. Something in the $50MM range also made sense for southpaw Nick Lodolo preseason. He’s coming off a year derailed by left shin injuries, so the Reds will probably wait on a long-term pact until he’s back on the mound.

24-year-old Andrew Abbott put himself in the conversation alongside Greene and Lodolo as potential rotation cornerstones. The 6’0″ southpaw turned in a 3.87 ERA through his first 21 major league starts, striking out 26.1% of opponents in the process. It’s a little early to consider Abbott an extension candidate — teams tend to wait on starting pitchers until they have a year-plus of service time — but he is clearly in the ’24 rotation and could be the Opening Day starter.

Adding a mid-rotation veteran should be the front office’s main priority. Greene and Lodolo battled injuries and inconsistency. Abbott set a career mark with 163 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues this summer. Graham Ashcraft eats innings but had an up-and-down season. While Brandon Williamson found his stride nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign, his minor league track record is mixed. Journeyman Ben Lively faded after a nice start. Prospect Connor Phillips has huge stuff and whiff rates but control woes that lead some evaluators to point to a possible bullpen future.

The Reds can’t go into next year counting on each of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson to hold a spot all season. They’ll need more depth than they had this year, when they gave Luke Weaver 21 starts and turned to Lively and Luis Cessa a combined 18 times.

Cincinnati has spent less than $15MM in free agency in each of the last two offseasons. There’s no reason for that to continue given the clean payroll outlook. The contracts for Votto and Mike Moustakas are off the books aside from option buyouts. They have just over $16MM in 2024 commitments at present. It’s a solid but hardly overwhelming group of arbitration-eligible players.

The Reds aren’t going to make a play for Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s difficult to project them as a candidate to top $100MM on Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola given their spending habits. Yet they’ve shown a willingness to go into the middle tier of the free agent market in prior offseasons, guaranteeing $64MM each to Moustakas and Nick Castellanos.

Old friend Sonny Gray will probably stretch beyond that number and cost a draft choice after rejecting a qualifying offer. Eduardo Rodriguez cannot receive the QO and could be available on a four-year pact in the $70-80MM range if he opts out of his deal with the Tigers. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are possibilities on a two or three-year deal.

Cincinnati could add a starter in free agency while also looking to the trade market. India could return a back-end type, even if he’s unlikely to get the ball rolling for someone like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert. Dealing any of McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte or De La Cruz ranges from unlikely to ’not happening,’ but they’d all have ample trade appeal. Perhaps the major league infield depth frees them to explore possibilities involving prospects Edwin Arroyo or Cam Collier for controllable rotation help.

They’ll also likely add in the bullpen. Cincinnati has a few solid arms but it’s a roughly average relief group overall. It’s anchored by All-Star closer Alexis Díaz. Deadline pickup Sam Moll is a good ground-ball lefty. Low-cost additions of Alex Young and Ian Gibaut have added middle relief depth. Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone can all miss bats at a high level, although Cruz and Sims have scattershot command and Antone has battled forearm problems. Buck Farmer, who was second on the team with 75 relief innings, is headed to free agency.

Cincinnati won’t be in on Josh Hader, but they have the financial room to play in the lower to middle tiers. Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, old friend Robert Stephenson and Pierce Johnson are all likely to land multi-year deals. Players like Ryne Stanek or Keynan Middleton could be available as one or cheaper two-year fliers.

Given the young talent on the roster and the payroll space, there’s more opportunity for the front office to add than has existed in quite some time. It’s an exciting time for Reds’ fans again. They were ahead of schedule in 2023 and came up a little bit short of the postseason. Next year’s team should have legitimate playoff aspirations from day one. It’s up to the front office to add the pitching necessary to make that happen.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Reds-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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The A’s spent the 2023 season more focused on relocating from Oakland to Las Vegas than on attempting to compete. They’ll finish with one of the six worst records of any team in the past 20 seasons. It’ll be another bleak offseason for a fan base that feels betrayed by ownership and has little to look forward to before the team’s likely departure.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2024 commitments: $10MM

Total long-term commitments: $10MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-Tender Candidates: Newcomb, Pruitt, Perez, Rios

Free Agents

Just as A’s brass has spent much of the past year focused on their attempted relocation to Las Vegas, the forthcoming offseason will further center around that move. The other 29 owners will vote on the Athletics’ move to Vegas between Nov. 14-16 — a vote that needs 75% approval and is widely expected to pass with little to no issue. The A’s will then turn their attention to securing funding, formalizing vendor contracts and other steps necessary to begin construction of their reported Las Vegas ballpark, with an eye toward finalizing the move in 2027. The A’s could share Oracle Park with the Giants from 2025 until the new facility is built. At this point, ownership is intent on moving away from the team’s longtime home. Any fans clinging to hope of some kind of sale of the team and reversal of course had those hopes dashed last month when chairman John Fisher plainly indicated he has no interest in selling the club.

All the while, the on-field product has suffered. The Athletics have been “rebuilding” for the past two years, though there’s virtually no Major League talent that’s been established despite trading away the core of a team that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019, won the AL West in the shortened 2020 season (36-24) and won 86 games in 2021.

Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Sean Murphy, Lou Trivino, A.J. Puk, Cole Irvin and Sam Moll have all been traded. The only fruits of those trades to blossom at the MLB level so far have been lefty JP Sears (4.54 ERA in a team-leading 172 1/3 innings this season) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who lead the AL with 67 steals but batted just .254/.309/.345. Catcher Shea Langeliers popped 22 home runs and played strong defense in his first full MLB season, but his overall .205/.368/.413 batting line was well shy of even the league average. Arguably the best player to come out of the rebuild has been first baseman Ryan Noda, whom the A’s selected in last December’s Rule 5 Draft.

Had the A’s focused solely on lower-minors talent as part of this rebuilding effort, perhaps the lack of MLB contributors would be explainable. That hasn’t been the case. The A’s have largely targeted players in the upper minors. That strategy has worked for them in the past, but the collection of Kyle Muller, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Cristian Pache, Joey Estes, Kevin Smith, Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead has generally struggled in the Majors. Pache, Oller and Logue aren’t even in the organization anymore. Pache was traded to the Phillies for minor league reliever Billy Sullivan, who walked 52 hitters in 57 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. Oller and Logue were lost on waivers after being designated for assignment.

The A’s have four players on Baseball America’s top 100 list at the moment, but none of the four were acquired from the slate of trades that constitute the current rebuild. Darell Hernaiz, acquired from the Orioles for Irvin and ranked ninth among Oakland prospects at both Baseball America and MLB.com, is the top-ranked yet-to-debut talent produced by the rebuild. BA ranked Oakland’s farm system 24th among the sport’s 30 teams in mid-August. MLB.com ranked them 26th. For a team that’s torn down an entire perennial contender via a series of aggressive trades netting largely upper-level minor league talent, the results should be unacceptable.

Some of the fire sale continued on over the summer, with Moll going to the Reds and offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami (Orioles) and Jace Peterson (D-backs) also being shipped out. Had Oakland’s other offseason veteran pickups — Trevor May (free agent), Aledmys Diaz (free agent), Jesus Aguilar (free agent) and Manny Pina (Murphy trade) — performed better, they’d surely have been shipped out, too. Things didn’t play out that way. Aguilar and Pina were both released over the summer. Diaz had the worst season of his career and is signed through 2024. May rebounded after spending time on the IL with anxiety early in the year but is now a free agent.

The long-running sale could continue this winter. However, because the A’s haven’t developed much talent or signed anyone who’s been particularly productive, they’re running low on names to dangle.

Right-hander Paul Blackburn posted a mid-4.00s ERA but with a more frequently used slider and uptick in velocity that helped him turn in a career-high strikeout rate. With two years of club control remaining and an arbitration trade looming, there’s a very good chance he’ll be moved, even if the return won’t be franchise-altering. First baseman/outfielder Seth Brown had a terrible first half but posted a more respectable .235/.301/.432 slash from July onward. Brown swatted 25 homers with the ’22 A’s and has shown good power against right-handed pitching in his career (.237/.305/.471, .234 ISO). A team looking for an affordable lefty half of a first base/outfield platoon could show interest. Again, the return wouldn’t be all that strong.

Aside from that pairing, there aren’t many obvious trade candidates. Brent Rooker, 29 in November, had a breakout year after being picked up off waivers, though it was a wildly uneven season overall. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in April, excellent in July and September, roughly average in August, and well below average in both May and June. On the whole, he hit .246/.329/.488 with 30 home runs but a 32.7% strikeout rate and shaky defense in the outfield corners. A 30-homer bat with four years of club control remaining could draw interest though, and the A’s aren’t in position to turn away interest on anyone who’s exhausted multiple years of team control.

With virtually nothing in the way of established talent on the roster, it should come as no surprise to hear that the Athletics’ payroll is practically blank. Diaz’s $8MM salary is the only guaranteed contract for a player still on the roster. The A’s will also send $2MM to the D-backs as part of the Peterson trade. Their arb class consists of more non-tender candidates than locks to return, and the players to whom they do tender contracts (e.g. Blackburn, Brown) could well be traded.

That should set the stage for some degree of free agent spending, although as last offseason showed, it’s not really something for A’s fans to get excited about. Oakland isn’t going to commit the necessary resources to any productive, big-name free agents. Even most free agents in the second, third and fourth tiers of the market will likely have little interest in signing on for what is assured to be a non-competitive season played in front of even more sparse crowds than usual. Those same factors led to a 2022-23 slate of signings that was comprised of utilitymen for whom they probably overpaid (Diaz, Peterson) and injury/NPB/KBO rolls of the dice (May, Fujinami, Aguilar, Drew Rucinski).

Assuming more of the same this winter, the market has several rebound hopefuls who can play multiple positions — thus accommodating the Athletics’ general lack of established position players — who can likely be signed at a low cost. Names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Paul DeJong, Brian Anderson, Adam Frazier, Eduardo Escobar and old friend Joey Wendle all come to mind. On the pitching side of things, names like Jake Odorizzi, Julio Teheran and Martin Perez could be in Oakland’s price range.

As bleak as things look in Oakland, there are a few spots on the diamond where they appear largely set. Noda had a tough finish to the season but still wound up with a .229/.364/.406 batting line and 16 home runs in 495 plate appearances. He’s not going to hit for much average with a 34.3% strikeout rate, but his massive 15.6% walk rate and above-average power will keep him productive enough to remain in the lineup (and give him a very vintage “Moneyball” Athletics vibe).

At second base, former second-rounder Zack Gelof debuted and turned in one of the strongest showings of any American League rookie in 2023. His performance might’ve gone largely under the radar, given that it came in just 69 games for a historically bad A’s team, but he slashed .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs, 20 doubles, a triple and 14 steals in 300 plate appearances. Strikeouts are a concern (27.3%), but Gelof walks, hits for power, runs well and played good defense. He has the look of a clearly above-average regular and was far and away the brightest spot on this year’s team. He’s controlled for six more seasons.

Behind the plate, Oakland will likely give another look to Langeliers, whose glove and power are MLB-caliber but whose hit tool was lacking. Langeliers chased off the plate far too often and popped the ball up to the infield way too often when he did make contact (27 times). He still maintained strong exit velocity and hard-hit rates despite that penchant for harmless pop flies, but his work at the dish remains a work in progress. Fellow backstop Tyler Soderstrom is one of the sport’s top offensive prospects but struggled on both sides of the ball. An inexpensive free agent could join this mix.

In the outfield, Ruiz will get another look in center after stealing 67 bases, but he’ll need to improve his offense to remain in the lineup. The lackluster production at the plate and blistering speed are reminiscent of early-career Billy Hamilton, but Ruiz is nowhere near that caliber of defender, so he’ll need to improve either his general offensive output or his glovework to be a credible regular. Former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday, acquired from the Marlins for Puk, hit .195/.310/.355 but posted huge numbers in a smaller sample at Triple-A. Lawrence Butler’s first 129 plate appearances didn’t go well. All three will get more chances in 2024 — Ruiz in particular — but adding a low-cost outfielder like Travis Jankowski, Joey Gallo or Hunter Renfroe (to name a few speculative examples) seems feasible.

Some type of addition on the left side of the infield also seems likely, whether that’s buying low on a trade for someone who’s been squeezed out of his current organization (e.g. Nick Senzel) or signing more utility infield types. None of Nick Allen, Jordan Diaz, Kevin Smith and Jonah Bride have been able to stake a claim to a long-term job at either third base or shortstop. Much of that group will be given more chances, but Allen and Smith have struggled in multiple seasons now. Hernaiz could factor into the left side mix at some point midseason after a strong showing in the upper minors.

The pitching staff doesn’t create much more room for optimism. Blackburn and Sears both turned in passable performances, but the former is perhaps the team’s top remaining trade candidate, as previously mentioned. Top prospect Mason Miller impressed in a few short looks but has been oft-injured throughout his minor league career and spent much of the season on the big league injured list.

There’s a huge number of in-house candidates to take rotation jobs, but most have pitched poorly and/or been hurt in multiple MLB auditions to date. Muller, Waldichuk, Medina, Estes, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok and Joe Boyle are among the options on the 40-man roster. Journeyman southpaw Sean Newcomb could be in the mix as well, if he survives the winter on the 40-man after undergoing knee surgery recently. Waldichuk finished out the season decently and probably has the inside track among this bunch.

Somehow, there’s even less certainty in the bullpen. Dany Jimenez is the most experienced reliever slated to return. His 3.43 ERA in 57 2/3 innings over the past two seasons is solid, but he’s also walked 13.4% of his opponents during that time. Zach Jackson, who missed most of the year with a flexor strain, has a similarly impressive ERA but ugly walk rate. Waiver pickup Richard Lovelady might have done enough in 23 1/3 innings to earn himself a decent chance at a spot in 2024, but his season ended in July to a forearm strain.

It’s unlikely the A’s make any high-profile additions, but the dearth of quality arms and lack of anything resembling a big league pitching staff likely points to at least a few veteran additions. The A’s could dangle the ninth inning to a veteran looking for a bounceback season, as they did with May last winter. It’ll be a low bar for the 2024 staff to clear. Despite playing their home games in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly stadium, A’s hurlers ranked 29th in the Majors in ERA (5.48), 26th in strikeout rate (20.4%), last in walk rate (10.9%) and 27th in homers per nine innings (1.35).

This offseason will represent one of the darkest chapters in franchise history for an increasingly tortured A’s fan base. It appears all but certain that the team will be leaving the Bay within the next few years, and the 2024 campaign could represent the final year they play home games at the Coliseum. Yet lifelong fans hoping to enjoy perhaps the final year of their beloved Green & Gold at the Coliseum won’t see that appreciation returned by an ownership group that has no interest in competing between now and the time the team moves to Las Vegas. The A’s will spend some money on free agents, if only to ensure they retain their status as a revenue-sharing recipient, but they’ll also probably trade away a few of the familiar faces remaining on the roster.

The A’s posted winning records in 15 of Billy Beane’s 25 years atop the baseball operations hierarchy and never had more than three consecutive losing years, despite frequent rebuilds and perennial payroll constraints. Despite that success — including the aforementioned 97-win seasons in 2018-19 and the 2020 division title — Fisher has suggested that a winning franchise simply isn’t feasible in Oakland. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, and one that appears to be entering its final years while leaving the few fans who remain high and dry with little reason for optimism.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an A’s-centric chat on 10-03-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: AFL Sleepers Edition

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With the postseason looming, our prospect attention shifts out west where the Arizona Fall League is set to begin this evening. The rosters include several notable prospects. They’re joined by the usual smattering untouted, statistically effective players. Today, let’s skip the big names and focus on the guys fighting for recognition. Those with long memories will recall Edouard Julien’s emphatic AFL performance. “Big Hype” can be built in Arizona.

First, let’s back up and think about Julien’s platform last season. He played well at Double-A as a 23-year-old. In the past, that was on the old side of age-appropriate. Now, it’s just flat-out old for the level. A 23-year-old either dominates Double-A or isn’t considered a prospect (there are exceptions). He was arguably the top player in the AFL last season (Heston Kjerstad won the MVP). Julien went on to post a 2.8 WAR debut in the Majors over 408 plate appearances. High BABIPs are a key component of his success.

Notably, defense was and remains a concern with Julien. There are always a few players who slide under the radar because they have a good-not-great bat married to defensive concerns.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Damiano Palmegiani, 23, 3B, TOR (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 557 PA, 23 HR, 7 SB, .255/.364/.478

There’s some surface commonality between Palmegiani and Julien. They’re both disciplined hitters who produced big league-caliber exit velocities. Scouting reports go out of their way to question the defensive aspects of Palmegiani’s game. He mostly played first base at Triple-A after spending most of the season as the starting Double-A third baseman. Palmegiani also has a shaky hit tool. When he connects, it tends to be well-struck. However, between the discipline and a moderate swinging strike rate, there’s a chance nearly half his plate appearances will end without a batted ball. Barring a profile change, he’ll need high BABIPs just like Julien. Palmegiani is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Carter Baumler, 21, P, BAL (A)
(CPX/A) 17 IP, 11.12 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

While we don’t usually watch the AFL for pitchers, Baumler is an exception. A fifth-round pick in the abbreviated 2020 draft, Baumler’s career has been waylaid by injuries, mostly to his shoulder. He managed to return to the mound in late July and even faced 16 batters in his final regular season outing on September 7. He was once viewed as a future Top 100 prospect candidate. With health, he’s young enough to get back on track. He features a well-designed fastball-curve combo. He also shows a slider and changeup, both of which are in want of further development. Baumler is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Brainer Bonaci, 20, 2B/SS, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 350 PA, 11 HR, 7 SB, .297/.354/.464

Bonaci is on the Ramon Urias utility track. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter. I figure there aren’t many scenarios in which he’s left off the Red Sox roster. Bonaci is a well-regarded fielder, but he’s slow-footed. He’s likely limited to second and third base down the line. His bat is trending in a league-average direction. Given he’s a switch-hitter, the total sum is a useful player who fits well on any roster.

Zach Dezenzo, 23, 3B, HOU (AA)
(A+/AA) 410 PA, 18 HR, 22 SB, .304/.383/.531

Early in the season, Dezenzo was among the top minor league performers by wRC+. After beating up on High-A pitchers, he performed merely decently against Double-A arms. Even so, at least one source of mine believes Dezenzo is Top 100 prospect material. Another source says he has a hole in his swing. While there’s no question about the quality of his contact, the frequency of his contact could leave him in the Quad-A bubble. He’s likely in the AFL to work on defense. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Jakob Marsee, 22, OF, SD (AA)
(A+/AA) 568 PA, 16 HR, 46 SB, .274/.413/.428

Marsee reminds me of a lower-impact version of Julien, one whose future big league role will depend upon making good on the few opportunities he’s given. That he’ll receive such opportunities is of little doubt. He’s a disciplined hitter with a high rate of contact. As a lefty, he’s also on the strong side of any platoon considerations. Defensively, he’s considered fringy as a center fielder. He doesn’t have quite enough pop to excite evaluators about a corner outfield role. Still, he profiles as somebody who could post offensive numbers not unlike Julien’s debut. That’s a Major Leaguer, even if we’re only talking about a platoon bat on the Athletics. He’s likely in the AFL to generate trade interest. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Three More

Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): You might recognize Lee from this past trade deadline when he was dealt from Philly to Detroit for Michael Lorenzen. A quad strain limited him to 32 post-trade plate appearances. Lee will be looking to make a strong impression on his new employers. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Kala’i Rosario, MIN (21): Rosario is one of the most accomplished power hitters in the AFL this season. He’s coming off a 21-homer campaign in High-A built around hard contact and plenty of pulled fly balls. He cut down on his swing-and-miss this year by being more patient. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz should be the odds-on favorite to lead the AFL in homers. He delivered 33 dingers this season split between Low- and High-A. With a strong AFL, he’s a fringe Top 100 prospect candidate. He’s also not Rule 5 eligible.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

The Mariners Had An Elite Shortstop In 2023 After All

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While the Mariners were officially eliminated from postseason contention on the second-to-last day of the regular season, the club saw many positive developments throughout the 2023 campaign, including the emergence of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo as capable big league starters and the emergence of Jarred Kelenic as a quality regular in the outfield. Perhaps most noteworthy for Seattle going forward, however, is the offensive breakout of a player who’s already been with the club for several years: shortstop J.P. Crawford.

Seattle was widely viewed as a potential landing spot for one of the 2022-23 free agent class’s marquee shortstops: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald was among those who urged the Mariners to jump into the fray of the middle infield market last offseason, and for understandable reasons. Not only had the club’s one-year deal for second baseman Adam Frazier proved to be a disappointment- the veteran slashed just .238/.301/.311 in 602 plate appearances with Seattle that year- but Crawford was in the midst of a difficult year as the club’s primary shortstop.

The 2022 campaign started off extremely well for Crawford, as the lefty slashed .340/.435/.546 in the first month of the season. Unfortunately, Crawford scuffled the rest of the way, slashing just .221/.317/.287 the rest of the way. Crawford’s brutal performance at the plate through most of the year can be attributed to power numbers that were nothing short of dreadful. He hit just two home runs over his final 117 games in 2022, and his BABIP over that stretch was just .254 thanks to extremely poor quality of contact. Crawford’s 2% barrel rate, 85.1 mph average exit velocity, and 29.7% hard-hit rate were all in fifth percentile or worse among qualified hitters last season, per Statcast. Though Crawford was a solid defender at shortstop the previous season, defensive metrics indicated Crawford’s lack of production last year included his glovework, as well: among 37 qualified shortstops last year, Crawford’s -11 Outs Above Average was second lowest.

Given Crawford’s down season in 2022, calls for the Mariners to pursue a franchise shortstop were understandable. As such, comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto early this past offseason that while the Mariners would pursue the coming class of shortstops, his “great preference” was to acquire a player willing to play second base were puzzling to some. Ultimately, the club worked out a swap with Milwaukee to bring in second baseman Kolten Wong as Crawford’s partner up the middle rather than sign one of the four star shortstops, none of whom ended up moving to the keystone with their new clubs this year.

The deal for Wong proved to be a blunder, as the 32-year-old slashed a dreadful .165/.241/.227 across 67 games with Seattle this year before being designated for assignment on the day of the trade deadline this year. Despite that major misstep, Crawford’s managed to make the club’s deference to him as the regular shortstop look perfectly reasonable as he developed from an average everyday player to the fifth most valuable shortstop in the majors this season. Crawford’s defense didn’t return to form, as his -8 OAA still placed him in the bottom five among qualified shortstops this year. The 28-year-old’s bat, on the other hand, saw some major improvements.

Perhaps most obvious among the improvements to Crawford’s offensive output this season is his walk rate. While Crawford has generally been better than average at drawing free passes in his career, he took that to another level in 2023. Crawford’s staggering 14.7% walk rate this season was the fourth-best figure among qualified major leaguers, trailing only Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani while finishing just ahead of Max Muncy and Bryce Harper.

That sort of elite company in terms of plate discipline is made all the more impressive when you consider Crawford’s strikeout rate. While the 19.6% figure was actually his highest since 2019, only Soto struck out less often in 2023 among the aforementioned group of five hitters surrounding Crawford. Indeed, Crawford and Soto are two of just seven hitters in the majors this season with strikeout rates below 20% and walk rates above 12%, joined by the likes of Mookie Betts, Adley Rutschman, and Alex Bregman.

In addition to top-tier plate discipline, Crawford improved his power output significantly in 2023. While he didn’t become an elite or even average slugger at the plate, his power numbers still saw considerable improvements across the board relative to last year. His barrel rate more than doubled to 4.8%, he added more than three mph to his average exit velocity, and his hard-hit rate jumped from the fifth percentile among qualified hitters in 2022 to the 21st percentile in 2023, an impressive feat over the course of just one season.

Put together, Crawford’s improvements at the plate saw him slash an impressive .266/.380/.438 with a wRC+ of 134, a 31-point increase from his roughly-league average 2022. Crawford slugged 19 home runs, up from last season’s six, to raise his ISO from .093 last year (sixth-worst among 130 qualified regulars) to .172 (72nd among 133 qualified regulars). By measure of wRC+, Crawford went from being the 14th-best offensive shortstop in 2022 to being this year’s second-best, trailing only Corey Seager.

The Mariners would still do well to improve at the keystone headed into 2024; the keys to the position figure to be handed over to Josh Rojas (78 wRC+) and Jose Caballero (96 wRC+) without any external additions. With that being said, the club’s position up the middle has substantially improved relative to where they were this time last year, as Crawford has provided Seattle with an impact player to slot into their middle infield mix while the Mariners prepare for 2024 with a return to the postseason on their minds.

MLBTR Poll: Josh Bell’s Player Option

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If one were to look simply at first baseman Josh Bell’s production since joining the Marlins back in August, it would appear to be a foregone conclusion that Bell will decline his $16.5MM player option for the 2024 season and test free agency. After all, Bell has posted strong numbers since being traded to Miami at the deadline: he’s slashed .266/.338/.474 with 11 home runs in just 51 games as a Marlin. Given the weak upcoming free agent class on the positional side, that sort of production would place him as one of the better hitters in the class, below top-of-the-class stars Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger but in the same conversation as the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler.

Unfortunately for Bell, the decision isn’t that simple. The 30-year-old slugger has long been regarded among the streakiest hitters in the majors. Back in 2019, the switch-hitter appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season as he tore the cover off the ball for the Pirates in the first half, slashing an incredible .302/.376/.648 with 27 home runs en route to his first career All Star appearance. He returned in the second half having fallen back to Earth, however, and hit just .233/.351/.429 the rest of the way.

It was a similar story in 2022. Bell posted strong numbers with the Nationals for most of the season, slashing .301/.384/.493 in 437 trips to the plate. After being shipped to the Padres in a blockbuster deal alongside superstar Juan Soto, however, Bell struggled badly, posting a meager .192/.316/.271 slash line the rest of the way with a whopping 57.4% groundball rate. Those struggles prompted Bell to take a two-year, $33MM deal with the Guardians this past offseason with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

In 2023, Bell’s struggles came at the beginning of the season, as he hit .224/.330/.350 over the first two months of the season. While his final results in Cleveland were roughly league average (96 wRC+), they weren’t particularly close to the production Bell would have needed to show to justify leaving $16.5MM on the table this offseason to test the open market again. That said, his aforementioned hot stretch with the Marlins could have changed things for the 30-year-old, as it’s lifted his overall season slash line to an above-average .245/.325/.416. That figure improves to .256/.322/.449 in 96 games since the start of June, putting him in the same ballpark as his .259/.347/.453 career batting line.

While it’s unlikely that Bell would top his $16.5MM option by measure of AAV, nineteen hitters (including Bell himself) received a guarantee of $17MM or more last offseason. It’s not difficult to imagine Bell receiving more in free agency that Brandon Drury (two years, $17MM) or Justin Turner (two years, $21.7MM) did from the Angels and Red Sox last year. The aforementioned scarcity of quality hitters on the free agent market this coming offseason could also help Bell, should he decide to test the open market.

While first base is one of the better-populated positions this offseason, with players like Turner, Brandon Belt, and Garrett Cooper set to hit the open market after posting solid season, Bell has youth on his side relative to those veterans. He’ll play next season at age-31; only Ohtani, Bellinger, Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have posted above average offensive seasons among free agents younger than Bell, though Chapman, Rhys Hoskins and Teoscar Hernandez will also have their age-31 campaigns in 2024.

Of course, things aren’t completely set in stone yet, even as the regular season wraps this weekend. With the Marlins favored to make the postseason, it’s possible Bell finds himself at the center of a surprise push deep into the postseason for Miami and posts big enough postseason numbers to impact his impending decision, which will come shortly after the World Series.

What do MLBTR readers think? If you were in Bell’s shoes, would you exercise your player option for next season and hope for a stronger platform season in 2024, or would you decline the option in search of a higher total guarantee on the open market?

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals entered the year expected to compete for another NL Central title. Instead, they’re on track for their first 90-loss season in more than three decades. They’re going to make another push for contention this winter, with no secret about a forthcoming pursuit of rotation help.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $108MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $264.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Hudson, Barnes, Knizner, Woodford

Free Agents

It didn’t take long to become clear the Cardinals weren’t going to meet preseason expectations. St. Louis started slowly, rebounded somewhat in May, then fell firmly out of the playoff picture with an 8-15 showing in June. They were positioned as deadline sellers by the All-Star Break.

That’s largely on account of a well below-average run prevention group. The club’s typically excellent defense regressed. Willson Contreras was briefly moved to designated hitter then returned to catcher in a bizarre saga early into the first season of his five-year free agent deal. Most concerning, the starting rotation simply wasn’t good enough to keep the Cardinals in games.

Adam Wainwright had the worst season of his career at age 41. The Cardinals understandably let him continue taking the ball in deference to his place in franchise history. He fortunately managed to hit the 200 win mark with a gem over the Brewers last week to close out his career. Wainwright’s contributions to the last two decades of Cardinal baseball are hard to overstate. He clearly didn’t have much left in the tank this season, though, meaning the Cards shouldn’t have much difficulty finding better production out of one their rotation spots.

They’ll need far more than to replace the outgoing Wainwright. St. Louis dealt impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty at the deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said shortly thereafter that the club was hoping to fill all three vacated spots from outside the organization. They’d give looks to various younger hurlers to see if any would elevate their standing during the final six weeks. The expectation is nevertheless they’d need to add a trio of starters.

There’s an argument the Cardinals could use four new starting pitchers. Miles Mikolas is the one lock for a job. He’s miscast as a staff ace but has proven a very durable source of innings, starting 32+ games in four of the last five full seasons. He’s tallied 194 1/3 frames of 4.82 ERA ball this year. He’s had a rough second half, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back.

The rest of the group is uncertain. Steven Matz has underwhelmed in two seasons since signing a four-year free agent deal. The Cardinals kicked Matz to the bullpen for a spell midseason. He eventually returned to the rotation, turned in his best seven-start run as a Cardinal, then suffered a season-ending lat strain in mid-August. It would’ve been a lot easier to pencil him into next year’s rotation if he’d stayed healthy over the final six weeks.

St. Louis has otherwise cycled through pitchers who haven’t had much success at the MLB level. Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom (acquired from the Orioles in the Flaherty trade) were all well-regarded prospects, to varying extents. Only Thompson has carried that over at the MLB level and that has mostly come in relief.

The Cards have given Thompson nine starts during the final couple months, during which he’s posted a 4.37 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout and walk rates. The former first-round pick has put the best case forward for a season-opening job out of that trio, yet he’ll be 26 in October and has all of 10 career major league starts. He’s probably not a lock either. Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson have logged some innings without much success. Either could be non-tendered, with Hudson having a particularly tenuous hold on a roster spot heading into his third season of arbitration eligibility.

It’s clearly an insufficient group for a team hoping to return to contention. The Cards have never been huge free agent spenders, preferring to attack the trade market and re-sign the stars they acquire. They’ve yet to go past an $80MM guarantee for a free agent starter (Mike Leake), though they’ve notably been in the free agent bidding for some higher-profile names in the past (most notably, David Price. There’s a chance they set a new franchise record for free agent pitching investment this winter.

The Cardinals have roughly $108MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class will probably tack on a bit over $20MM. That’s still well shy of the $177MM range in which they opened the ’23 campaign. There’s room for a strike towards the upper end of the free agent market.

This winter’s class skews toward pitching. Beyond Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch next season), the rotation group is headlined by Blake Snell and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That duo might wind up beyond the Cards’ spending range, but the next group of arms includes Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez (assuming he opts out of his deal with the Tigers). Montgomery and Nola are very likely to surpass nine figures, while Gray has a chance to do so. Any of that group would immediately be the best pitcher on the St. Louis staff. Rodriguez could beat the Leake guarantee as well.

Mozeliak and his front office will probably add a couple arms in free agency. Handing out the two biggest free agent guarantees for starters in franchise history in the same offseason might not be tenable. Looking further down the class, players like Seth Lugo, old friend Michael Wacha — if his options with the Padres are declined — and Kenta Maeda could offer stability. The Cards may prefer that to a rebound flier on Frankie Montas or Luis Severino, though they’d certainly have the opportunity to dangle a job to a riskier upside play if that’s a route they’d prefer.

Not all of the work has to be accomplished in free agency. The Cards were a team to watch at last summer’s deadline, with rumors of potential deals involving their young hitters to land a controllable starting pitcher. That didn’t materialize. The Cardinals were active, but their trades generally followed the same pattern: moving an impending free agent (Flaherty, Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong) for upper minors talent, preferably pitching.

Speculation about dealing a big league position player could return. Former top prospect Dylan Carlson is the obvious candidate. He’d looked like the franchise center fielder after securing the position midway through the 2022 season. The switch-hitting Carlson hasn’t had the breakout offensive showing that many expected, however, settling in as a roughly league average bat over the past few years. Lars Nootbaar broke out late in ’22 to take hold of center field.

Rather than return Carlson to an everyday role in the corner outfield, they pushed him into more of a fourth outfield capacity. Top prospect Jordan Walker arrived at the major league level to man right field. Walker is already an above-average MLB hitter, though he’s one of the game’s worst defensive outfielders. Tyler O’Neill is a far better defender in left field. He has been up-and-down offensively while battling various injuries, but the Cards have maintained faith that he could recapture his 30-homer potential. They showed little interest in trading him and reportedly plan to give him the left field job to start his final year of club control.

That leaves St. Louis with a few decisions to make. They probably don’t want to consign the 21-year-old Walker to a full-time DH role. There’s no room for Walker on the corner infield, at least for one more season. Depending on how they handle second base, the Cards could need to keep the DH spot available for an infielder. They could retain Carlson as a fourth outfielder, likely passing on a chance to flip him for pitching talent in the process. Richie Palacios, acquired in a minor June trade with the Guardians, has played well enough in September to have a shot at sticking as a fourth outfielder.

Carlson is no longer going to return an impact controllable starter, but there’d still be interest — particularly in a thin market for center fielders. The Yankees expressed interest in Carlson at the deadline and could put Clarke Schmidt on the table, as a speculative possibility. Perhaps the Marlins are prepared to listen on 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers after an injury-wrecked ’23 season. If the Cardinals hold Carlson, they could flip Alec Burleson on the heels of a down year. That’d mean selling low on a former top prospect with five years of remaining club control, though.

The middle infield is the other area where they could leverage their young talent in trade. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are very different players — Donovan is an excellent contact hitter, Gorman has potential 30+ homer power — but they’re each above-average MLB bats. Neither is a great defender at second base, but Gorman has improved at the position and Donovan can bounce around the diamond. Donovan missed most of the second half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery; he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Gorman and Donovan would have more trade value than Carlson. The Cardinals could keep both, rotating them between second base and designated hitter. Yet it’s possible they flip one for a controllable starting pitcher. Speculation about the Cardinals and Mariners lining up on a trade has abounded for months. Seattle certainly isn’t moving George Kirby, and they’d probably balk at dealing Logan Gilbert. They could offer Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, though it’s debatable if that’s enough from the Cardinals’ perspective. The Marlins (Braxton Garrett) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long) could each float interesting young pitchers as part of a larger trade package.

Tommy Edman would generate a fair bit of interest himself. He’s a decent hitter who can seemingly play plus defense at every non-catching position. The Cardinals seem disinclined to move him given his defensive value, though they’ll surely receive some calls. It’s a dreadful free agent class for middle infield help, leaving teams like Detroit, Miami and the Giants without clear solutions at shortstop. Edman would be an upgrade for any of that trio.

That’d be an easier sell for St. Louis if top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn had hit the ground running. The 21-year-old has mustered only a .168/.233/.243 line in his first 33 big league contests. It doesn’t change his long-term outlook, since most players his age are at Double-A or below. Yet it suggests Winn is probably ticketed for Triple-A to start next season, which would leave Edman as the presumptive starting shortstop.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will be back at the corner infield. Goldschmidt is going into the final season of the five-year extension he signed upon landing in St. Louis. If the Cardinals struggle early in the year, he’d be a major deadline trade chip. It’d be very surprising if they seriously entertain moving him during the offseason, however. Perhaps another team wants to take a flier on 26-year-old Luken Baker, who is blocked by Goldschmidt but raked at a .334/.439/.720 clip in Triple-A this season.

23-year-old catcher Iván Herrera also had a great Triple-A showing, hitting .297/.451/.500 with 10 longballs in 375 trips to the plate. It’s his second consecutive above-average performance at the top minor league level. He’ll be out of options next year and surely won’t be placed on waivers. Either the Cardinals keep Herrera in the majors or they trade him, but the signing of Contreras muddies Herrera’s path to a regular role.

The Cards could flip or non-tender Andrew Knizner if they wanted to carry Herrera as Contreras’ backup. Herrera would have quite a bit more appeal than Knizner on the trade market, with teams like Miami (again), Tampa Bay and Boston among possible matches.

Deadline trade speculation extended to the bullpen. There was little incentive to hold impending free agents Hicks and Stratton. Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley were loosely floated in rumors. Helsley was on the injured list at the time, while Gallegos had just signed an extension last October. It’s not surprising no deal came together. While opposing clubs could call again on either, the Cardinals would probably prefer to retain two of their better late-game arms. Alongside southpaw JoJo Romero, that duo should assume high-leverage roles.

With Stratton and Hicks gone and long reliever Drew VerHagen hitting free agency, it’s likely St. Louis will add one or two relievers to the mix. That could include their first notable free agent bullpen pickup since they signed Andrew Miller in advance of the 2019 season, even if the rotation is the higher priority.

It looks like a winter with a fair bit of roster turnover. That doesn’t appear to extend to the top non-playing personnel. Oliver Marmol will be back for a third season as manager. Mozeliak — the sport’s second-longest tenured front office head — doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy after a decade and a half of mostly successful ball. Mozeliak implied last offseason that he could hand the reigns to longtime lieutenant Michael Girsch once his contract expires after the 2025 season.

That’s a longer-term consideration. For now, the focus for Mozeliak, Girsch and Marmol is on quickly righting the ship after a disastrous season. The Cardinals aren’t accustomed to looking up at the rest of the division. They’ll try to ensure this offseason that it doesn’t happen again.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 9-29-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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