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MLBTR Originals

Rangers Rotation Could Be A Strength In ALCS

By Leo Morgenstern | October 11, 2023 at 10:15pm CDT

Over the 2022-23 offseason, the Rangers concentrated their attention and resources on the rotation. They signed Jacob deGrom, the biggest name on the market, and Nathan Eovaldi, a World Series champion and postseason hero. They re-signed Martin Perez, an 11-year veteran and a 2022 All-Star. They took a chance on the injury-prone Andrew Heaney, who flashed dominant strikeout stuff over the second half of the season.

Suffice it to say, very little went according to plan. deGrom went down at the end of April. Eovaldi looked like a Cy Young contender through the All-Star break, but a forearm strain ruined the second half of his season. Perez, meanwhile, struggled so badly through the first four months that he wound up in the bullpen after the trade deadline. Heaney was a similar case; he lasted longer in the rotation but never quite found his groove, and he landed in the bullpen in September. Jon Gray, who signed with Texas a year prior, was reliable for much of the season but suffered a forearm strain of his own in late September.

That’s a whole lot of misfortune for a team that still finished fifth in the AL in rotation ERA and FanGraphs WAR, not to mention a team that made the playoffs and swept its way to the ALCS. While the pre-season plan didn’t exactly work out, the Rangers made the best of some tough breaks with depth and aggressive trades at the deadline. Now, as they prepare to take on the Astros, the rotation could be as strong as it’s been since April.

Eovaldi has put his rough September far behind him with two phenomenal postseason starts. Across 13 2/3 innings, he has given up just two runs while striking out 15 and walking none. The righty is harkening back to his performance with the 2018 Red Sox, but even then, he was never quite as effective as he’s been over his last two outings.

Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery has been superb, pitching to a 2.79 ERA in August and September and a 3.27 ERA in the playoffs. While he has had a few rough starts, including his performance against the Orioles on Sunday, he has looked dominant more often than not, such as in his gem against the Rays last Tuesday.

Those two will lead the way in the ALCS, and with several off days between their victory last night and Game 1 on Sunday, the Rangers can set up their rotation however they’d like. That means Montgomery in Game 1, Eovaldi in Game 2, and no need to piggyback Heaney and Dane Dunning to open the series. In fact, Texas might not need to piggyback Heaney and Dunning at all.

Max Scherzer, another deadline addition for Texas, is approaching a preternatural return from a teres major strain. He seemed like a long shot for the playoffs until relatively recently, but he has been ramping up his throwing program in October, and now it looks like he could make the ALCS roster. As Evan Grant reported for The Dallas Morning News, the three-time Cy Young winner threw a simulated game on Wednesday, and he feels good about his chances to pitch against the Astros.

Grant had a similarly positive update about Gray, who plans to ramp up his rehab this week. He is not as far along as Scherzer, but he also didn’t miss as much time. If he gets back on a mound in the coming days, he, too, could be ready for the ALCS.

Neither Scherzer nor Gray is likely to pitch deep into a game. It’s a good thing, then, that manager Bruce Bochy has several converted starters in his bullpen. Not all of them will make the roster if Scherzer and Gray both return, but even so, the Rangers have plenty of options to pitch the middle innings. A rotation of Montgomery, Eovaldi, Scherzer, and Gray (with Heaney, Dunning, and Perez providing depth) should give Texas a chance to win every time out.

The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers this year. At the best of times, it has been just that, but more often than not, it’s been a large, looming question mark instead. The questions will remain until Scherzer and Gray actually take the ball, but all the same, this rotation is in a better place than it has been for quite some time.

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MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Jon Gray Jordan Montgomery Max Scherzer Nathan Eovaldi

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By Anthony Franco | October 10, 2023 at 11:04pm CDT

The Padres are on the shortlist for the league’s most disappointing team in 2023. They came up shy of the postseason despite a star-studded roster that entered the year with championship aspirations. They’ll make another run at competing next season, albeit with newfound payroll questions that suggest they’ll probably lose the presumptive NL Cy Young winner and their elite closer to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Manny Machado, 3B: $337MM through 2033 (including $10MM signing bonus due by Dec. 1)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr., RF: $317MM through 2034
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $250MM through 2033
  • Joe Musgrove, RHP: $80MM through 2027
  • Yu Darvish, RHP: $78MM through 2028
  • Jake Cronenworth, 1B: $78MM through 2030
  • Robert Suarez, RHP: $36MM through 2027 (includes opt-out after ’25)
  • Ha-Seong Kim, 2B: $10MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
  • Seth Lugo, RHP: $7.5MM player option
  • Matt Carpenter, DH: $5.5MM player option

Option Decisions

  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Nick Martinez; if club declines, Martinez holds two-year, $16MM player option
  • Team holds two-year, $32MM option on RHP Michael Wacha; if club declines, Wacha has respective $6.5MM, $6MM and $6MM player options through 2026
  • RHP Seth Lugo holds $7.5MM player option
  • DH Matt Carpenter holds $5.5MM player option

Other Financial Commitments

  • Owe $24.5MM to Red Sox through 2025 as condition of Eric Hosmer trade

2024 financial commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $134.76MM
Total future commitments (assuming Wacha/Lugo opt out, Carpenter/Martinez opt in): $1.232 billion

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Juan Soto (5.134): $33MM
  • Tim Hill (5.112): $2.4MM
  • Scott Barlow (5.030): $7.1MM
  • Trent Grisham (4.060): $4.9MM
  • Austin Nola (4.045): $2.35MM
  • Adrian Morejón (3.140): $900K

Non-tender candidates: Hill, Nola, Morejón

Free Agents

  • Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo (assuming opt-out), Gary Sánchez, Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Rich Hill, Luis García, Jurickson Profar, Drew Pomeranz

A late-September tear against mostly bad teams nudged the Padres past .500. That’s no consolation for a club that entered the year as co-favorites in the NL West alongside the Dodgers and a trendy World Series pick. San Diego had bolstered last year’s NLCS squad with another massive contract, signing Xander Bogaerts for 11 years and $280MM. With Fernando Tatis Jr. returning from last year’s wrist surgery/PED suspension, everything was supposed to come together in 2023.

If the team ever really clicked, it didn’t happen until they were buried in the standings. As was the case two years ago, the Padres’ disappointing finish came with reports of internal strife. In 2021, clubhouse discord contributed to San Diego’s decision to dismiss manager Jayce Tingler. This year, reports from The Athletic and the San Diego Union-Tribune cast renewed questions about the locker room — with a reported rift between president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and second-year manager Bob Melvin drawing the most attention.

As the season wound down, there was some question about whether the Preller – Melvin relationship had become untenable. Ownership clearly doesn’t believe that to be the case. After an end-of-season meeting between Preller, Melvin and chairman Peter Seidler, the parties agreed to keep the leadership structure in place. Seidler released a statement expressing his “full support” for that duo; Preller confirmed two days later that Melvin is “going to be (the) manager going forward.”

There could be far more turnover with the roster itself. Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune reported last month that the Friars were shooting for a player payroll in the $200MM range for next season, pointing to a need to comply with MLB’s debt service ratio. That’d likely keep them in the upper third of the league but represents a notable cut. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Friars finished this season with a payroll just under $250MM and had an estimated luxury tax number near the $293MM final penalization threshold.

That’ll make things difficult for Preller and his front office as they try to more effectively balance the roster. San Diego’s player spending is a little more manageable than fans might expect given their repeated top-of-the-market strikes. Machado ($13MM) and Tatis ($11MM) are playing on relatively light salaries as part of backloaded extensions. (Machado is also owed a $10MM signing bonus this December 1, although it’s not clear if the Padres consider that part of their approximate $200MM calculus for next season.) The Friars’ 11-year commitment to Bogaerts meant his annual salary is a fairly palatable $25MM.

San Diego’s payroll opening the offseason will be defined by a handful of upcoming options decisions. Matt Carpenter is going to exercise a $5.5MM player provision; Seth Lugo will decline a $7.5MM option in search of a multi-year deal.

The Friars have matching two-year options at $16MM annually on Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez. Given their reported payroll situation, it seems likely they’ll decline their end of both provisions. It’s not an unreasonable amount for Wacha in isolation, but it’d be harder to justify if San Diego has somewhat limited spending room. Wacha would subsequently decline the first of three player options valued in the $6-6.5MM range; Martinez would have a two-year option at $8MM annually that’ll be an interesting call.

If Carpenter and Martinez opt in while Wacha and Lugo test free agency, the Padres’ 2024 salary commitments would check in around $135MM (not counting Machado’s bonus but including the $12+MM they’re sending to the Red Sox on the Eric Hosmer deal). That doesn’t account for a massive arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a record-setting $33MM salary for Juan Soto in his final season of eligibility. Scott Barlow and Trent Grisham are projected at a combined $12MM. That puts the organization at roughly $180MM before considering outside additions. Unless plans of payroll cuts are dramatically overstated, they’re not likely to make a legitimate run at Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger or Yoshinobu Yamamoto the way they might have in previous offseasons.

Given that financial picture, it’s natural that opposing fanbases have speculated about the possibility of a second blockbuster Soto trade in as many years. San Diego doesn’t have to move him. It’s possible to accommodate a $200MM payroll with their existing commitments and Soto’s projected salary. Doing so would require an austere offseason, though, potentially paired with a trade of another notable but less impactful player or two. San Diego hasn’t suggested any plans to shop Soto but hasn’t taken a trade off the table either.

With one season of remaining control, Soto’s trade value is markedly lower than it was at the 2022 deadline. The Padres wouldn’t get near the level of talent — five young players headlined by MacKenzie Gore, James Wood and CJ Abrams — which they sent to the Nationals to acquire him.

The Mookie Betts deal is the most obvious precedent for a superstar traded before his final arbitration season. The Red Sox received five years of club control on a solid regular (Alex Verdugo), a borderline Top 100 prospect (Jeter Downs) and a mid-level prospect (Connor Wong) while also offloading around $48MM on the David Price contract. The deal didn’t work out for Boston. Verdugo never developed into more than a solid player, while Downs barely reached the majors. Yet it’s a general benchmark for the Padres if they were to consider moving Soto. They presumably wouldn’t also attach an underwater contract, so topping a package headlined by two highly-regarded but not elite controllable talents should be viable.

It’s arguable whether that’s preferable to simply keeping Soto for his final arbitration season. The Padres would get one more year in which he anchors the lineup. They could deal him at the deadline if they’re again underperforming, while he’d clearly receive the qualifying offer next offseason if they kept him on the roster. Even if they don’t anticipate re-signing him — Preller unsurprisingly suggested they’ll reengage with Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation this winter — a trade isn’t inevitable.

Keeping Soto would limit their flexibility elsewhere on the roster. San Diego has arguably the best group of impending free agents of any team. Blake Snell is likely to be named NL Cy Young a couple days before hitting the market. Josh Hader has a good chance of topping the $102MM contract record for relievers which Edwin Díaz established last winter.

Even with their payroll questions, the Padres will obviously make a qualifying offer to each of Snell and Hader. There’s no chance either player accepts a one-year deal, which would entitle San Diego to modest compensation in next year’s draft. As a luxury tax payor, the Friars would receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for each player if they sign elsewhere.

Watching both depart appears likely. The Padres seemed to preemptively prepare for Hader’s departure last offseason with a stunning five-year, $46MM commitment to Robert Suarez. Between the hard-throwing righty and the trade deadline acquisition of Barlow, they’ll have options for the ninth inning. While losing Hader would be a huge blow to any bullpen, the Padres should have other priorities.

None is bigger than the rotation. San Diego’s starting staff somewhat quietly led the majors in ERA and finished fifth in strikeout rate. That’s in large part thanks to their impending free agents, who were arguably their three top starters. Snell was utterly dominant from June onwards. Wacha (3.22) and Lugo (3.57) each turned in sub-4.00 ERA showings over 130+ frames. Lugo would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Padres were operating at their typical spending capacity. Given the expected constraints, the chance he accepts a one-year offer worth around $20.5MM and the mid-round pick they’d receive if he walks, they’ll probably opt not to make the offer.

Those possible departures leave the Friars with only two locks for the starting staff. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish ended this season on the injured list. They’re expected to be ready for Spring Training. If Martinez returns, he could have a clearer rotation opportunity than he’s had in the last two years, when he has spent most of his time as a multi-inning reliever. The Padres have the option to retain Wacha, although a $16MM salary is probably too much of a commitment to lock in before free agency even gets underway. Neither Pedro Avila nor Matt Waldron pitched well enough to secure a spot in the Opening Day five.

The Padres need to bring in two or three starters. Options toward the lower tiers of free agency include Michael Lorenzen, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Martín Pérez and Hyun Jin Ryu. Luis Severino is a candidate for a one-year pillow contract. Swingman Jakob Junis could market himself as a starter in search of a two-year deal in the range of what the Friars offered Lugo last winter. The Padres have been aggressive in targeting players from Asian professional leagues. Perhaps they’ll inquire on former Nationals righty Erick Fedde, who turned in a 2.13 ERA over 28 starts in his first season in South Korea.

They’ll likely bring in at least one arm via trade. Paul Blackburn, Spencer Turnbull, Adrian Houser and Cal Quantrill are among affordable arbitration-eligible hurlers who could be attainable. None of those pitchers would cost an immense prospect return. San Diego still has a few names at the top of the farm system (e.g. Ethan Salas, Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling) whom they could ostensibly dangle if an impact starter with multiple seasons of club control (perhaps Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease) came available.

San Diego could also deal off the big league team to find more balance on the roster. Barlow’s $7.1MM projected salary makes him a possible candidate, although it’d leave the Padres with very little in the way of setup options to pave the way to Suarez. Grisham is projected at just under $5MM and down to two seasons of control. He’s an excellent defensive center fielder but a .191/.300/.347 hitter since the start of 2022.

Given how well Tatis acclimated to right field defensively, the Friars could consider moving him to center and shopping Grisham. They’d have to bring in another corner bat opposite Soto at that point. It’s not a robust free agent class for hitters. Ramón Laureano, Harold Ramírez and Dylan Carlson are among the trade possibilities if the Padres wanted to search for more offensive upside than Grisham provides without taking on notable salary. Were the Padres to move Soto, they’d have to take a bigger swing in the outfield — whether a trade candidate like Anthony Santander or a free agent pursuit of KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.

Their last pursuit of a hitter from South Korea worked out excellently. Ha-Seong Kim is headed into the final season of a four-year, $28MM free agent deal. He’s a plus defender who can move around the infield and has hit .256/.338/.391 over the last two years. Kim would be an in-demand trade candidate if San Diego made him available. Between his affordability and a dreadful free agent class for middle infielders, Kim would be the Padres’ most desirable realistic trade candidate aside from Soto.

Dealing Kim would open up second base for Jake Cronenworth, who is miscast at first. Yet it’d also subtract one of the Padres’ best position players without clearing a huge chunk of payroll space. While Preller and his staff probably won’t foreclose the possibility entirely, the price would be high.

If they hold Kim, he’d likely return to the keystone. Machado and Bogaerts are the presumptive left side infield. Machado could be delayed early in the season as he recovers from elbow surgery, but he’s expected back early enough in the season the Padres don’t have to worry about the hot corner. Bogaerts recent conceded he might not be much longer for shortstop (link via Kevin Acee of the Union-Tribune). That raises the possibility of a position swap for Bogaerts and Kim but doesn’t materially change the infield construction.

The Padres should bring in some more offensive punch for the first base/DH mix. Last winter’s signings of Carpenter and Nelson Cruz didn’t pan out, nor did deadline acquisitions of Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper. With the latter two headed for free agency, the Padres should take another swing at first base. Brandon Belt could be a free agent target, while Rowdy Tellez is a non-tender possibility. Adding a bat-first player would deepen the bench while freeing Cronenworth for a multi-position role.

If the Padres were to take a bigger free agent swing, Mitch Garver would be a strong on-paper fit. The Ranger slugger is a primary DH who can catch on occasion. The Padres will likely bring in a complement to Luis Campusano behind the dish while non-tendering Austin Nola. If Garver proves too expensive and/or receives a qualifying offer from Texas, Tom Murphy could be an affordable “Garver-lite” free agent target.

San Diego has one of the wider-open outlooks for any team. They’re likely to lose a couple marquee free agents but still have plenty of star talent at the top of the roster. They’re certainly not about to rebuild. Yet next year’s roster could look quite different from the 2023 version, especially on the pitching staff. The Padres have been one of the sport’s most unpredictable teams throughout Preller’s tenure. That’s not going to change this year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Padres-specific chat on 10-11-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Mark Polishuk | October 10, 2023 at 5:49pm CDT

The Brewers reached the playoffs for the fifth time in sixth seasons, but were upset and swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Diamondbacks, triggering a quick start to what might be a somewhat transformative offseason.  Longtime manager Craig Counsell is out of contract come November and has been non-committal about his future in Milwaukee, while the Brewers face tough decisions on a trio of prominent players.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $136.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
  • Aaron Ashby, SP: $18.5MM through 2027 (includes $1MM buyout of 2028 club option; Brewers also hold $13MM club option for 2029 with no buyout)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $7MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)

Total 2024 commitments: $32.75MM
Total future commitments: $162MM

Option Decisions

  • Mark Canha, 1B/OF: $11.5MM club option for 2024 ($2MM buyout)
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM mutual option for 2024 ($1MM buyout)
  • Andrew Chafin, RP: $7.25MM club option for 2024 ($725K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, RP: $2.5MM club option for 2024 ($150K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Brandon Woodruff (5.161): $11.6MM
  • Willy Adames (5.105): $12.4MM
  • Corbin Burnes (5.049): $15.1MM
  • Adrian Houser (5.010): $5.6MM
  • Rowdy Tellez (5.004): $5.9MM
  • Eric Lauer (4.111): $5.2MM
  • Hoby Milner (4.068): $1.7MM
  • Devin Williams (4.056): $6.5MM
  • Tyrone Taylor (3.093): $1.7MM
  • Bryse Wilson (3.036): $1.3MM
  • Joel Payamps (3.027): $1.7MM
  • Abraham Toro (3.011): $1.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Lauer, Tellez, Toro

Free Agents

  • Jesse Winker, Carlos Santana, Victor Caratini, Josh Donaldson, Colin Rea, Julio Teheran, Fernando Abad, Greg Allen, Darin Ruf

With speculation swirling for years about the possibility of David Stearns leaving the Brewers to run the Mets’ front office, a subsection of rumors also formed around Counsell, whose contract (like Stearns) was up at the conclusion of the 2023 season.  Stearns’ deal allowed him to start negotiating with other teams on August 1, and it took a little over a month before Stearns indeed ended up as New York’s new president of baseball operations.  Firing Buck Showalter was one of Stearns’ first decisions as PBO, thus leaving the Mets in need of a new manager.

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has been open about his desire to retain Counsell, though the skipper asked that any contract talks be put off until after the season.  This would seemingly set the stage for Counsell to make a clean exit to Queens, or perhaps to one of the other managerial vacancies (Giants, Guardians, Angels) around the game, or maybe to a season or two away from baseball entirely to recharge his batteries.  Only Counsell knows what his next step will be, and should he indeed depart, Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold will have to add a new managerial hire to the top of the offseason to-do list.

Though Stearns, possibly Counsell, and possibly at least one of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Willy Adames won’t be back next season, it doesn’t seem like the Brewers will entertain the idea of a rebuild.  This is still a talented roster that just won 92 games, and both Attanasio and Arnold seem committed to the idea of perpetual contention in the model of the Rays or Guardians, without the need to ever fully tear things down like other medium-to-small market teams.

That still means some tough budget decisions will have to be made, however.  This offseason has always been seen as something of a flashpoint for the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames trio, as all three are entering their final trip through the arbitration process and are scheduled for free agency following the 2024 campaign.  As per Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections for MLBTR, the trio are set to earn roughly $39.1MM in salary next year.  Combined with the $26MM that Christian Yelich will receive, that’s four players covering around $65.1MM in payroll for a team whose entire Opening Day payroll in 2023 was a touch under $118.8MM.  Among the arbitration class, the likely non-tenders of Rowdy Tellez and Eric Lauer will free up some cash, but closer Devin Williams is also getting a significant raise in his second year of arb eligibility.

If Attanasio feels the team is still close to a championship, could he okay a one-year payroll boost and retain all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames for what would essentially be a “last dance” season?  In theory yes, though it seems like 2023 might’ve already been that last dance.  As much Milwaukee fans dislike the idea of prominent players being dealt for financial reasons, a canny trade would allow the Brew Crew to both save some money and acquire some talent to help the team in both 2024 and beyond.

Keeping all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames even until the next trade deadline would carry further risk, for one because the 2022 Josh Hader deal is an example of how such a trade can disrupt a clubhouse at midseason.  Furthermore, the players’ trade value could be lessened or erased completely in the event of injury or under-performance — a circumstance that has perhaps already happened with two of the three.

Woodruff pitched only 67 innings in 2023 due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, and more shoulder problems arose right as the postseason began, keeping Woodruff off the playoff roster.  Even if this current issue does prove to be relatively minor, rival teams might already be scared off at the idea of trading for an injured pitcher, and the Crew doesn’t want to sell low.

In the worst-case scenario of a major shoulder injury, Woodruff missing some or all of the 2024 season has greater impact than just on his trade status.  For one, the Brewers might be less inclined to move Burnes if they know they’ll also be losing their other ace to the injured list.  Woodruff’s health situation might erase the “need” for a trade, since otherwise, Burnes seems like the clear sell-high candidate of the trio after another All-Star season.

Even in an offseason with a pitching-heavy free agent market, clubs unwilling or unable to spend on a big long-term free agent deal will have plenty of interest in one year of Burnes’ services.  Conceivably, the Brewers could aim to land pitching as part of a Burnes trade to bolster the rotation in the event of a Woodruff injury.  As indicated by last offseason’s three-team swap between the Brewers, Athletics, and Braves, Arnold is willing to get creative in trades, so the team obtaining Burnes wouldn’t necessarily be the team also giving up an arm in return.

Rotation depth has traditionally been a strength for the Brewers, particularly in a 2023 season that saw several starters miss significant stretches.  But, beyond Burnes, Woodruff, and Lauer’s probable non-tender, Colin Rea and Julio Teheran (who combined for 33 starts) are free agents, and Wade Miley can also re-enter free agency by declining his end of a mutual option.  Without any of these arms, the Brewers’ top rotation options are now Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby returning after missing all of 2023 due to shoulder surgery, rookie Janson Junk and his nine career MLB games, and pitching prospect Robert Gasser on the verge of his Major League debut.

Re-signing Rea or Teheran might not be too expensive, and a reunion with Lauer is possible on a lower salary than his $5.2MM arbitration projection.  Miley could potentially also stay if the Brew Crew negotiated a new contract, but if not, expect Milwaukee to target another Miley-esque veteran hurler who can add some stability and innings on a short-term deal.

Given how starting pitching has been the backbone of the Brewers’ run of contending teams, this much flux heading into the offseason is certainly unsettling for the club, making Woodruff’s health a huge X-factor.  It does help that Milwaukee will be bringing back pretty much everyone from one of the game’s better relief corps, and it’s safe to expect a couple more bullpen arms to be cycled in and out as the Brewers look to find another hidden gem of a relief option.

The Brewers’ pitching and defense helped carry the team to the NL Central crown despite an offense that was inconsistent at best.  Considering that the Crew need lineup reinforcement and infield help in particular, they might be more compelled to hang onto Adames, despite his down year at the plate.  Adames hit 24 homers and still provided outstanding shortstop defense, but his 94 wRC+ (from a .217/.310/.407 slash line) was well below the 116 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22, as Adames’ hard-contact rates plunged this season.

Adames’ bat did come back to life over the last six weeks of the schedule, so it could be that the 28-year-old simply had an unusually prolonged slump.  If looking for possible causes, his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic, and Adames only played in one game for the Dominican Republic.  It could be that with a full and normal Spring Training, Adames will look more like his normal self in 2024, which is good news for the Brewers…or a new team.

Brice Turang is a gifted enough fielder to at least replace Adames’ glovework at shortstop, but Turang didn’t show much at the plate in his rookie year.  Turang had a 60 wRC+, the second-lowest of all MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last season.  While it’s too early to assume that Turang can’t become at least a passable hitter, he is already slated to be Milwaukee’s first choice at second base next season, so it just creates another hole on the diamond if Turang was moved to shortstop in the event of an Adames trade.  Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller had their moments in 2023 and Abraham Toro could contribute if he isn’t non-tendered, but the Brewers might prefer having this group as utility depth rather getting steady playing time in a second base platoon.

Or, a third base platoon, since the hot corner was a revolving door for much of 2023.  Brian Anderson and Monasterio handled the bulk of the playing time, but Anderson has already been released, and the Brewers aren’t likely to bring back late-season pickup Josh Donaldson.  Prospect Tyler Black played a lot of third base at Triple-A Nashville last season and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024, though it remains to be seen if third base will necessarily be his primary position, as he has been shuffled all around the diamond trying to find an ideal defensive spot.

First base was also a weak link before trade deadline acquisitions Mark Canha and Carlos Santana helped stabilize things, though Santana is a free agent and the Brew Crew have a $9.5MM decision to make on Canha’s club option.  It might not have been a decision Milwaukee necessarily expected to make when they landed Canha from the Mets, yet Canha played so well (.800 OPS in 204 PA) as a Brewer that exercising the option might easily solve one lineup concern.

Canha would probably primarily play first base, but his ability to also play both corner outfield slots provides extra depth, and perhaps gives the Crew some extra leverage in trading from their outfield depth.  Moving an outfielder for a third baseman in particular could be helpful, since the list of free agent third-base options isn’t deep, and the Brewers aren’t likely to be spending in the Matt Chapman/Jeimer Candelario tiers.

Turning to the outfield, Christian Yelich isn’t exactly back in his old MVP form, but his 122 wRC+ was his highest since 2019.  He’s still locked into the left field spot, though Yelich figures to get some DH days to open up playing time for former top prospects Garrett Mitchell (who missed most of the year due to shoulder surgery) and Sal Frelick, as well as Tyrone Taylor and rookies Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer.  While Yelich is the only established player of this group, there could be enough of a surplus here for the Brewers to explore trades, especially since another highly-touted youngster is waiting in the wings.

Jackson Chourio doesn’t celebrate his 20th birthday until March, but he is already ranked as one of baseball’s very best prospects after tearing up the minors over his three pro seasons.  Chourio has only six games and 24 PA at the Triple-A level, so it is possible Milwaukee starts him back at Triple-A to begin the season to get the outfielder some more seasoning.  However, between Chourio’s intriguing potential and the Prospect Promotion Incentive opportunity open to the Brewers, a big Spring Training performance might put Chourio in center field for Milwaukee on Opening Day.

Since Chourio figures to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024, the Brewers might hold off on an outfield trade until they see how everything shakes out.  Frelick and Mitchell aren’t likely going anywhere, but Wiemer is a former top-100 prospect and Taylor has generally been a solid part-timer over his five MLB seasons.  Those latter two players might hold appeal to other teams, if perhaps as part of a package deal rather than in a notable one-for-one swap.

Turning to the final bench spot, free agent Victor Caratini had a solid season as William Contreras’ backup, and might look for more playing time with another team.  The Brewers would surely like to re-sign Caratini if possible, but they’ll be on the lookout for another veteran backstop if necessary.  The good news is that the Crew don’t necessarily have to limit themselves to glove-first types, as Conteras made such impressive strides with his blocking and framing that he now looks like an above-average catcher on both defense and offense.

Contreras is the latest example of how the Crew have been able to continually reload their roster.  The infamous Hader trade led to Gasser and Esteury Ruiz joining the Brewers, which led to Ruiz being sent to the A’s as part of that three-team deal that resulted in Contreras and ace setup man Joel Payamps coming to Milwaukee.  Naturally not every trade is going to work out quite as swimmingly, but it does provide hope that if Burnes, Adames, or Woodruff are indeed moved, Arnold will be able to again bring back a noteworthy return.

Arnold will have to weigh his big trade decisions against how to best upgrade the existing quality on the roster, all while not creating any roadblocks for the impending arrival of Chourio, Black, and Gasser.  Counsell’s future and Woodruff’s shoulder are the two biggest topics facing Milwaukee as the offseason begins, but the Brewers enter a potentially fascinating winter.

Click here to read the Brewers-centric live chat Mark Polishuk with MLBTR readers.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR Poll: San Diego’s Juan Soto Decision

By Nick Deeds | October 10, 2023 at 8:55am CDT

Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.

Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.

The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.

After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.

The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.

It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.

All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.

Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.

What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls San Diego Padres Juan Soto

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

By Anthony Franco | October 9, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

The Angels collapsed in the second half and came up short of the playoffs yet again. Now they enter the offseason they’ve been dreading. Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent, putting the franchise at a potential inflection point. They’ll need to commit to an organizational direction behind their fourth manager in six seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mike Trout, CF: $248.15MM through 2030
  • Anthony Rendon, 3B: $114MM through 2026
  • Tyler Anderson, LHP: $26MM through 2025
  • David Fletcher, SS: $14MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Brandon Drury, 2B: $8.5MM through 2024
  • Max Stassi, C: $7.5MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Carlos Estévez, RHP: $6.75MM through 2024

Option Decisions

  • Team holds $9MM option on 3B Eduardo Escobar ($500K buyout)
  • Team holds $7.5MM option on LHP Aaron Loup ($2MM buyout)

2024 financial commitments: $117.2MM
Total future commitments: $427.4MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

  • Griffin Canning (4.075): $2.5MM
  • Brett Phillips (4.060): $1.4MM
  • Luis Rengifo (4.043): $4.2MM
  • Jaime Barria (4.035): $1.5MM
  • Chad Wallach (4.018): $1.1MM
  • Taylor Ward (3.164): $4.5MM
  • Patrick Sandoval (3.149): $5MM
  • Jared Walsh (3.114): $2.7MM
  • José Suarez (3.084): $1.1MM
  • José Quijada (3.046): $1MM

Non-tender candidates: Phillips, Barria, Wallach, Walsh, Suarez, Quijada

Free Agents

  • Shohei Ohtani, Gio Urshela, Mike Moustakas, Randal Grichuk, C.J. Cron

The Angels have had the 2023-24 offseason circled for a while. It has served as a possible endpoint to their window of rostering two of the best players in the world. At least since Shohei Ohtani truly broke through as an MVP talent in 2021, the upcoming winter has been a concern. The organization knew it was running low on time to build a winner during Ohtani’s window of control.

For a team that has desperately been in win-now mode for three-plus seasons, the Angels haven’t done much winning. They’ve tried to compensate for a generally thin organizational pipeline by addressing needs through free agency, always a step behind where they needed to be.

In 2021, the starting rotation wasn’t good enough. Last year, they gave too many at-bats to replacement level position players. They tried to bolster the overall depth last offseason, signing Brandon Drury, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez while acquiring Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela in trade. Still on the fringe of the playoff race at the deadline, they pushed in for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López (plus a number of role playing veteran hitters) in hopes of salvaging one playoff run while Ohtani was still guaranteed to be on the roster.

It didn’t work. The Halos pivoted a few weeks later, waiving many of their highest-priced players in an effort to dip back below the luxury tax line. Even the organization doesn’t yet know if that effort was successful, as their tax number won’t be finalized until the end of the year. If they did go over the base threshold, the actual bill would be minuscule, as teams are only taxed on their overages. The more significant aspects are that teams pay escalating penalties for surpassing the line in consecutive seasons and that paying the luxury tax reduces the compensation teams receive for losing a qualified free agent.

That, of course, brings things back to Ohtani. The Angels will make Ohtani the QO. He will decline. If he subsequently signs elsewhere, the compensation the Halos receive would differ depending on whether they actually surpassed the tax threshold. If their CBT number is under $233MM, it’d be a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (typically around 75th overall). If they’re still over the line, the compensatory draft choice falls between Rounds 4 and 5.

Neither is a good outcome. The Angels unsurprisingly maintain they hope to re-sign Ohtani. The presumptive AL MVP hasn’t tipped his hand about free agent preferences. There’s no doubt the Halos will be involved in the bidding. Would they be willing to offer a contract pushing or exceeding half a billion dollars to retain him?

Owner Arte Moreno hasn’t been shy about spending on star talent, from the Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon free agent pickups to the Mike Trout extension. Yet even those megadeals are likely to land well below Ohtani’s ultimate signing price, while this is the first time in two decades that the Halos have shown a willingness to surpass the luxury tax threshold.

Even if Moreno is willing to play at the top of the market financially, the Angels will have to sell Ohtani on their ability to compete over the coming seasons. They’re tied with the Tigers for the game’s longest active playoff drought at nine years. They don’t have a single prospect on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 list.

The MLB team just finished 73-89 for a second consecutive season while Ohtani was playing on a $30MM arbitration salary and pitched 132 innings. At season’s end, they declined an option to retain skipper Phil Nevin. They’re now searching for their fifth manager since Ohtani’s 2018 rookie season. They already have north of $117MM in guaranteed salary on the books, most of it tied up in the Rendon and Trout deals. The arbitration class is likely to tack on around $16MM after non-tenders. That leaves about $79MM before reaching this year’s Opening Day payroll figure, though an Ohtani deal could account for more than half of that.

The best case scenario is that the Halos manage to retain Ohtani, who won’t pitch next season following elbow surgery, on a free agent contract that pays far more than he made this year– likely above Aaron Judge’s $40MM record salary for a position player. They wouldn’t have much room to address anything else on the roster before getting back to franchise-record payroll levels. Barring a huge jump in spending, it’s hard to see how the Angels look better entering 2024 than they did going into ’23.

That all makes the Halos feel like a relative long shot to keep their franchise player. Were he to sign elsewhere, this would look like a clear rebuilding roster. They were 16th in runs this past season despite Ohtani’s .304/.412/.654 showing. Playing the second half without Trout, who suffered a hamate fracture on July 4, obviously played a role in that. Yet Trout has played in less than half the team’s games over the last three seasons. Now that he’s into his 30s, the three-time MVP might not be capable of shouldering a 150+ game workload as he did at his peak.

The rest of the lineup has some bright spots but is middling overall. Logan O’Hoppe is a promising young catcher. He lost most of this year to a labrum tear but is the clear long-term starter. Veteran Max Stassi was out all season between a hip injury and a family medical concern. Hopefully, he’ll be able to return next season as the backup.

Los Angeles cycled through a number of infielders. David Fletcher was on and off the roster and no longer looks like a regular. He’ll remain in the organization because he’s under contract for two more seasons and doesn’t have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment without forfeiting the $14MM remaining on his deal. He could be waived again this offseason, though.

The Halos brought in Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron and Eduardo Escobar as midseason stopgaps. They’re all headed to free agency — the Angels will buy out Escobar for $500K rather than exercise a $9MM option — and seem unlikely to be retained. Urshela is also headed to the open market and could find a two-year deal elsewhere. Former All-Star Jared Walsh is likely to be non-tendered after a second straight down year that temporarily cost him his spot on the 40-man roster.

Despite those players departing, the Angels have a handful of infielders. Zach Neto had a solid rookie season and should be the long-term shortstop. 21-year-old Kyren Paris saw late-season action there but didn’t hit in his first 15 MLB games and should start next year back in the minors.

At first base, the Halos hurried Nolan Schanuel to the majors within a few weeks of drafting him 11th overall out of Florida Atlantic. While the last-ditch effort to compete didn’t work, the 21-year-old handled himself remarkably well given the circumstances. Schanuel walked more than he struck out, hit .275, and reached base at a huge .402 clip in his debut. He only had four extra-base hits and slugged just .330. There’s room for debate about whether the Angels should send Schanuel back to the minors to try to develop his power. His strong on-base skills at least put him in the running for the starting first base job on Opening Day, though.

Drury and Luis Rengifo will be in the everyday lineup if they’re still on the roster. They were two of the Halos’ better offensive performers, with Rengifo having a particularly impressive second half. A fluke biceps rupture sustained while taking swings in the on-deck circle ended his season two weeks early. He underwent surgery and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Drury and Rengifo should draw trade attention this offseason. Rengifo’s injury could make it difficult to find an appropriate return before he gets back on the field. Drury would be an obvious trade candidate if the Halos lose Ohtani and decide to use 2024 as a retooling season. The veteran popped 26 homers with a .262/.306/.497 slash in his first year in Orange County. Playing on an affordable $8.5MM salary, he’d be an appealing target for infield-needy teams in a winter without many free agent options.

That’s not the case for Rendon. The veteran third baseman has played in fewer than 60 games in all three full seasons since signing a $245MM free agent deal. He has played at a league average level in that time, nowhere close to the production the Angels envisioned. Rendon didn’t play after July 4 with a left leg injury that the Halos announced as a shin contusion. Rendon told reporters last month it was a tibia fracture. Both the organization and the player had been bizarrely reluctant to provide meaningful updates throughout the season.

There’s no indication that Rendon will not be ready for the start of 2024. He’ll surely remain on the roster, as his $38MM annual salaries through ’26 makes a trade essentially impossible. If he’s healthy, he’ll presumably be the starting third baseman. Few free agent deals go south as quickly as the Rendon investment has, leaving the Angels without many options but to hope for better entering year five.

Two outfield spots should be locked down. Trout is likely to be back in center field. Opposing fanbases have long speculated about the possibility of prying the 11-time All-Star away in trade. The Angels probably wouldn’t be able to shed the entire seven years and $248.15MM on his deal, but a high-payroll team like the Yankees or Phillies would presumably be willing to assume the majority of the money. Yet there are likely too many roadblocks to a trade.

Clearly, the Angels wouldn’t contemplate moving Trout while they’re still making an effort to bring back Ohtani. Re-signing Ohtani would take that firmly off the table. If the two-way star walks, Moreno would need to be willing to part with both faces of the franchise in the same offseason. For an owner who intervened to kill trade discussions regarding Ohtani when the Halos were firmly out of contention at the 2022 deadline, that seems unlikely. Even if the Angels were willing to move Trout, he’d have control over his destination thanks to full no-trade rights. Trout doesn’t seem urgent to force his way out of Anaheim, telling reporters last month that his offseason focus is on “clearing my mind and getting ready for spring and wearing an Angels uniform in spring.”

Assuming Trout is back in center field, he’d likely be flanked by Taylor Ward. The left fielder’s season was cut short when he was hit in the face with a pitch in late July. He should be back by Spring Training. Ward is a solid regular who still has three seasons of arbitration control. As with Rengifo, there’d be interest if the Halos wanted to shop him. They’re in no urgency to do so, though, and the season-ending injury makes it tough to get adequate value before Ward demonstrates that he has gotten past that frightening situation mentally.

Even if they retool, the Angels could look for a veteran corner outfielder opposite Ward. Former top prospect Jo Adell has never taken the anticipated step forward. He’ll be out of minor league options and looks like a candidate for a change-of-scenery trade, albeit for a minimal return. Mickey Moniak faded after a strong start in Trout’s stead and is probably best suited for fourth outfield work. Randal Grichuk is a free agent, while Brett Phillips will likely be non-tendered.

Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson, Joey Gallo and Jason Heyward are among the free agent corner outfielders who’ll sign for one or two years. Alex Verdugo and Mike Yastrzemski are potential trade candidates. The Angels only make sense as a suitor for a trade possibility if they’re again trying to patch things together with short-term veterans.

They’ll also have to add on the pitching staff. The Angels have run with a six-man rotation in recent seasons to manage Ohtani’s workload. General manager Perry Minasian recently acknowledged they could move to a five-man staff next season (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). That’s true regardless of whether they retain Ohtani since he can’t pitch next year.

Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning have three spots reasonably well secured. The Halos would surely like to offload the two years and $26MM remaining on Anderson’s contract after he struggled to a 5.43 ERA in the first season. They unsuccessfully tried to offload the money via waivers in August. They’d presumably have to kick in cash to facilitate some kind of trade this offseason.

Whether Anderson returns, there’s room for another starter. Reuniting with Michael Lorenzen or taking a rebound flier on Frankie Montas, Luis Severino or Lance Lynn could be viable. That’d leave Anderson (if not traded) competing with the likes of Chase Silseth and potentially José Suarez for a rotation spot.

The Halos also have opportunity to add a couple relief fliers. They’re likely to opt for a $2MM buyout on Aaron Loup. They waived impending free agent Matt Moore and cut Chris Devenski in August. Hard-throwing Ben Joyce and José Soriano and right-hander Andrew Wantz presently project as the top setup options to Estévez, who’s headed into the second season of a two-year free agent deal. The hard-throwing closer would surely draw interest if the Halos were to make him available this winter. Bringing in at least one left-hander seems inevitable. Andrew Chafin, Wandy Peralta and Scott Alexander are among the possibilities.

It’s shaping up to be a difficult offseason. Minasian heads into his fourth year at the helm facing the long-feared potential Ohtani departure. If it happens, an already middling team will have lost its best player. If he stays, they’ll have a more uphill battle than ever in putting a viable roster around him.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Angels-centric chat on 10-10-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals

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Big Hype Prospects: Triantos, Tiedemann, Roby, Muncy, Pauley

By Brad Johnson | October 9, 2023 at 7:58pm CDT

After one week of play in the Arizona Fall League, several of the under-the-radar players we featured last week are off to strong starts. Heading the charge is Jakob Marsee whose 1.725 OPS leads the league. He’s one of five hitters with a pair of dingers and leads with six extra base hits. He’s recorded four walks to two strikeouts and added four stolen bases. Damiano Palmegiani is also among the top ten hitters while Carter Baumler arguably turned in the best appearance among the pitchers. He went three frames and recorded seven strikeouts.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

James Triantos, 20, 2B/3B, CHC
(A+/AA) 363 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .287/.364/.391

Triantos spent much of the 2023 campaign in High-A. My contacts have long liked the 2020 draftee as a breakout candidate, but his in-game power output remains below expectations. There’s late bloomer talk as a result. Bear in mind, we’ve grown a bit spoiled with precocious players who aren’t yet of legal drinking age. On the defensive side, there’s are concerns he won’t stick at second base. His bat might not work in a corner role. Triantos has a 1.230 OPS in 16 AFL plate appearances.

Ricky Tiedemann, 21, P, TOR
(CPX/A/AA/AAA) 44 IP, 16.77 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.68 ERA

One of the top prospects in the AFL, Tiedemann is drawing extra work after managing only 44 regular season innings. Those regular season frames were among the best in the Jays system – he led their entire farm in several ERA estimators. The bulk of the action came in Double-A where a high walk rate, BABIP, and low left on base rate led to a 5.06 ERA. Tiedemann is a candidate to make the 2024 Blue Jays, but it’s also likely he’ll have his workload carefully managed. Role: tbd. Through one AFL start, he worked five innings and allowed one run on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts.

Tekoah Roby, 22, SP, STL
(AA) 58.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 4.94 ERA

Like Tiedemann, Roby is getting extra work in the AFL due to missed time during the regular season. After being traded at the deadline, the right-hander pitched impressively in four starts for the Cardinals. His AFL outing consisted of three shutout innings. He allowed one hit with five strikeouts. He features a repertoire of four above-average pitches led by an excellent curveball. FanGraphs drops a Hunter Brown comp. Personally, I smell a whiff of Aaron Nola. He’s trending high floor, high ceiling as a prospect.

Notably, the Cardinals have struggled to finish their pitching prospects. Their matriculated pitchers like Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore often show little understanding of pitch design. Even Johan Oviedo took an instant step forward upon leaving the Cardinals. It’s unclear if this is a persistent organizational failure or pure happenstance.

Max Muncy, 21, SS, OAK
(A+/AA) 545 PA, 10 HR, 13 SB, .275/.353/.411

While most facets of his game remain a work in progress, Muncy appears to be trending toward some form of big league future. The 2021 first-rounder made considerable strides with his contact rate during the 2023 campaign. Scouts mostly view him as a utility guy in the making, although there’s still plenty of time for him to develop the game power and defensive consistency necessary to serve as a regular. His AFL season is off to a splashy start with a 1.009 OPS in 18 plate appearances.

Graham Pauley, 23, 3B, SD (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 551 PA, 23 HR, 22 SB, .308/.393/.538

Since their minor league affiliates skew hitter-friendly, the Padres have a knack for producing exciting-looking position players who fade on the approach run to the Majors. Success stories like Ty France tend to be the exception rather than the rule. Pauley didn’t have much of a draft pedigree when he was selected in 2022, but he’s since developed a reputation as a guy who gets the job done despite unconventional hitting mechanics. A left-handed hitting corner fielder with an extreme pull approach, he might reach the Majors as a carefully managed platoon man – the kind of player favored by teams like the Brewers, Rays, and Giants.

Three More

Adam Seminaris, MIL (24): Acquired in the Hunter Renfroe trade, Seminaris is Rule 5 eligible this offseason. He’s playing for a roster spot in Milwaukee or elsewhere. The soft-tossing southpaw is off to a good start in the AFL. He worked four scoreless innings with one hit and seven strikeouts.

Jackson Jobe, DET (21): One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects, Jobe is rounding out a season that saw him throw about 20 fewer innings than 2022. Since Jobe could be a midseason consideration for the Tigers, his workload is of obvious concern. His AFL debut consisted of four shutout innings with two hits, two walks, and four strikeouts.

Chase DeLauter, CLE (22): DeLauter is the current AFL RBI leader. Like many a Guardians outfield prospect, DeLauter rarely whiffs. His awkward-looking swing has no analogs in the Majors. It looks a bit like a stumbling-drunk Alek Thomas. While credited with plus raw power, it’s unclear if his bat will play against stiffer competition.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Graham Pauley James Triantos Max Muncy (2002) Ricky Tiedemann Tekoah Roby

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The Yankees’ Offseason Middle Infield Question

By Anthony Franco | October 9, 2023 at 12:16pm CDT

MLBTR released our annual projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players last week. Among the class, only Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a higher figure than Gleyber Torres. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects the Yankee second baseman for a salary in the $15.3MM range for his final year of club control.

Torres has earned that lofty estimate with consistent offense through his five-plus seasons in the majors. He’s a career .267/.334/.454 hitter in a little over 3000 trips to the plate and has been above-average in five of six campaigns. This past season was typical for the righty-swinging infielder. Torres connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 showing across 672 plate appearances. He walked at a strong 10% clip while punching out only 14.6% of the time, the lowest rate of his career.

The glove is less reliable. Torres was a well below-average defender at shortstop earlier in his career. He has received tolerable but fringy grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at second base. Torres isn’t in danger of moving off the keystone. The bat carries the profile, though.

Even with a projected salary north of $15MM, Torres isn’t a non-tender candidate. He’s an above-average regular who would immediately be the best player available in a barren free agent middle infield class were the Yankees to inexplicably cut him loose. It’s fairly common for teams to consider trade scenarios for good but not elite players headed into their final seasons of club control on lofty projected salaries. That’s a more realistic possibility.

Dealing veterans in the five-plus year service class isn’t solely a move made by non-contenders. The Blue Jays (Teoscar Hernández), Brewers (Hunter Renfroe) and Twins (Gio Urshela) all made such moves last offseason and still made a playoff run. Toronto dealt Hernández for affordable bullpen help in right-hander Erik Swanson and to clear room in the outfield for a more defense-oriented group with the subsequent acquisitions of Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Milwaukee and Minnesota made their moves mostly with payroll in mind, though the Brewers did bring in middle reliever Elvis Peguero as part of the Renfroe return.

Clearly, the Yankees aren’t operating with the same financial constraints as the Brewers or Twins. Yet both those teams were also freed up to part with a solid veteran regular because they felt a young, pre-arbitration player could step up in the near future. Milwaukee had outfield prospects Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick on the doorstep of the big leagues. The Twins were set to turn third base to second-year player José Miranda, with former first overall pick Royce Lewis a midseason possibility for an infield role following his return from ACL surgery.

For the Yankees, the biggest question might be whether they believe 23-year-old Oswald Peraza is capable of assuming that mantle. Peraza, who debuted with a strong 18-game showing late in 2022, spent the bulk of last season in Triple-A. He had a solid .268/.357/.479 line in 300 plate appearances there. The Yankees recalled him once they fell out of contention in late August. Peraza got regular infield run for five weeks but didn’t make an impact. He hit just .198/.236/.306 in 33 games to close out the year.

It’d be easier for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office to pencil Peraza for an everyday role in 2024 had he taken advantage of that opportunity. There’s nevertheless still an argument that’s their best course of action. Peraza is out of options, so the Yankees can’t send him back to Triple-A. (He’d surely be claimed on waivers if they tried to take him off the 40-man roster.) He’ll have to be on the major league roster unless the Yankees surprisingly traded him. If they’re hopeful he’ll be able an above-average regular at some point, it makes sense to get him consistent playing time.

That could come at third base, where Peraza spent the majority of his time in September. The Yankees received a putrid .221/.294/.361 slash from that position this year. That includes below-average work from the since-released Josh Donaldson, impending free agent Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Peraza himself. DJ LeMahieu was the other player with extended action at the position. The 35-year-old had a league average season overall despite solid production in the second half.

If the Yankees still view LeMahieu as an everyday player or land a free agent at the hot corner like Jeimer Candelario, the keystone becomes the obvious position for Peraza. The organization stuck with Anthony Volpe at shortstop through a middling offensive season. He outperformed most expectations defensively and seems entrenched there. Anthony Rizzo is expected back at first base, where LeMahieu saw most of his reps in the season’s final month.

There’s enough infield talent the Yankees could turn to the trade market on Torres. New York has a number of issues on the roster. There are questions in both outfield spots opposite Aaron Judge. Injuries or down years for each of Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas (the latter two of whom are headed to free agency) exposed the rotation depth in 2023. Their catchers contributed almost nothing offensively.

New York will have to address some of those shortcomings via free agency. Shopping Torres is another potential avenue for upgrading a different area of the roster. As the Hernández, Renfroe and Urshela deals demonstrate, there’s not immense trade value with one relatively costly season of a solid regular. While Torres is probably the best player of that group, he’s likely to also be the most expensive.

There’s more trade appeal now than there would be midseason, however. If the Yankees trade Torres during the offseason, an acquiring club could make him a qualifying offer at the end of next season — thereby entitling them to draft compensation if he departs in free agency. That wouldn’t be possible if Torres were dealt at next summer’s deadline, since teams can only make a QO to a player who spent the entire season on their roster.

The demand for middle infield solutions might also never be higher. The free agent second base class is headlined by the likes of Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier. For teams trying to upgrade at the keystone — the White Sox, Mariners and Tigers may all fit that description and have short-term payroll space — the trade market is the clearest path.

Whether any team would be willing to make a strong enough offer for the Yankees to part with their second-best hitter won’t be known until the offseason. New York’s offense was a disaster when Judge went on the injured list. Trading Torres would thin it further unless they directly swapped him for a similarly productive outfield bat. Cashman and his staff have kicked around trade scenarios regarding Torres in the past and have yet to get a deal they find compelling. If they feel Peraza warrants a similar extended look to the one they gave Volpe this year, they could explore the market again this offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Gleyber Torres Oswald Peraza

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Mitch Garver’s Unusual Platform Season

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 11:07pm CDT

The upcoming free agent class has long looked like it would be much heavier on pitching than hitting, and that situation only became more extreme as players at or near the top of the class like Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Ian Happ signed extensions prior to the 2023 campaign. Headed into the season, it looked as if the only surefire impact position players available would be two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and glove-first third baseman Matt Chapman, particularly when slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez struggled badly to open the year. One name that didn’t receive much attention prior to his platform season was Mitch Garver, the Rangers catcher who had appeared in just 37.8% of his teams’ games since the start of the 2020 season due to injuries.

Texas defied preseason expectations to lead the AL West throughout the entire first half, lost eight consecutive games in late August to fall into a three-way tie with the Mariners and Astros in the win column, then ultimately missed the AL West crown after posting a 90-72 record identical to that of Houston’s division champs. Despite all of that uncertainty, Garver has been a stabilizing presence when in the club’s lineup. The 32-year-old slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 across 344 trips to the plate with the Rangers this season while posting his lowest strikeout rate (23.8%) since 2019 and a career-best mark for walk rate (12.8%).

To put those numbers into perspective, Garver’s 138 wRC+ this year is tied with Brandon Belt and Ryan Jeffers for the 15th-best mark in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season. This puts Garver ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, and Luis Arraez, and just a few points players like Kyle Tucker and Bryce Harper. Making Garver’s offensive capabilities more enticing is his ability to play catcher. Among all catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023, Garver ranks second in on-base percentage, third in slugging percentage, third in walk rate, and he is tied with Jeffers for second in wRC+ (behind only Tom Murphy’s 47-game season with the Mariners).

Given the weak offensive free agent class, Garver’s prowess with the bat, and his ability to play behind the plate, one might assume that the veteran is on his way to a top-of-the-market payday this offseason. However, Garver’s situation isn’t that simple. Beyond the fact that he’ll play the 2024 campaign at age-33, there’s also the concern of his lengthy injury history. Garver missed six weeks with a sprained knee earlier this season, and in recent years has also missed time due to forearm, groin, back, intercostal, and ankle issues. Between those injuries and his role as a catcher requiring more days off than most everyday players, Garver has played just 209 games the past three seasons despite being a clear everyday talent when healthy.

Upon his return from the injured list in June, the Rangers helped Garver stay on the field by utilizing him primarily as a designated hitter. Though he hit well in the role, he was limited to just 25 games behind the plate over the season’s final four months, which will surely raise questions for potential suitors regarding Garver’s ability to catch regularly going forward.

As a DH, Garver would still have value, though it would be significantly reduced. Belt and J.D. Martinez are two examples of defensively-limited sluggers in their mid-thirties who posted similar numbers to Garver in 2023, and both ended up signing one-year deals this past offseason. That’s not to say Garver will necessarily be limited to similarly short-term offers, though it’s hard to imagine a player of his age and injury history approaching the much more significant contract (five years, $87.5MM) commanded by Willson Contreras last year, despite Contreras being a fellow catcher with relatively comparable offensive numbers in recent years.

That seems particularly true given that Garver seems to best fit a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate. Of course, the Rangers have such an arrangement, with Jonah Heim as the club’s everyday catcher and plenty of DH starts available for Garver. The Cubs and Padres are among other teams who could theoretically provide Garver with occasional time behind the plate next year alongside regular backstops Yan Gomes and Luis Campusano while allowing him to DH the majority of the time, which would seem to be the best approach in order to maximize both Garver’s talents and time on the field.

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MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Mitch Garver

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The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 9:34am CDT

The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

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Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals Dean Kremer Grayson Rodriguez Kyle Bradish

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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

By Mark Polishuk | October 7, 2023 at 9:02am CDT

Finding a new manager is the first order of business for the Guardians, as Terry Francona is retiring after a Cooperstown-worthy managerial career.  The offseason’s first weeks will be dominated by news of the managerial search, but Cleveland will still face lingering questions about how to upgrade the lineup, and whether or not to trade Shane Bieber.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $105MM through 2028
  • Andres Gimenez, IF: $101.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
  • Myles Straw, OF: $19.25MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RP: $15MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
  • Trevor Stephan, RP: $8.65MM through 2026 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $7.25MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $7.5MM club option with no buyout on Stephan’s 2028 season)

Other Financial Obligations

  • $10.5MM owed to Jean Segura (released on August 1)

Total 2024 commitments: $41.1MM
Total future commitments: $259.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Shane Bieber (5.097): $12.2MM
  • Cam Gallagher (5.073): $1.3MM
  • Ramon Laureano (4.165): $4.7MM
  • Cal Quantrill (4.132): $6.6MM
  • Josh Naylor (4.127): $7.2MM
  • James Karinchak (3.099): $1.9MM
  • Triston McKenzie (3.074): $1.8MM
  • Enyel De Los Santos (3.015): $1.2MM
  • Sam Hentges (2.157): $1.1MM
  • Nick Sandlin (2.157): $1.1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Gallagher, Laureano, Karinchak

Free Agents

  • Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Kole Calhoun, Daniel Norris

Francona’s final season unfortunately didn’t include any more postseason magic, as the Guardians finished with a 76-86 record — just the second losing record for Francona in his last 19 seasons as a manager.  Since the Twins didn’t pull away until later in the season, the relative weakness of the AL Central left the Guardians in an odd state of quasi-contention, resulting in an unusual slate of transactions in the second half.

The pre-deadline moves of Amed Rosario (to the Dodgers), Aaron Civale (to the Rays) and Josh Bell (to the Marlins) seemed like a borderline concession, yet with Cleveland still just two games behind Minnesota at the end of August, the Guards took advantage of the Angels’ semi-fire sale on the waiver wire to claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore for the stretch run.  A 12-16 record in September and October finally did Cleveland in, and the real white flag was waived on September 19 when the Guardians themselves put Moore on waivers, and the southpaw was claimed away by the Marlins.

The sub.-500 record doesn’t mean the Guards will explore a rebuild, however.  The franchise’s state of more or less perpetual contention isn’t likely to end now that Francona is gone, as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff still have plenty of talent on hand.  Superstar Jose Ramirez is still in his prime, and the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo) now both look like impressive young hitters, with Bo performing well in his first extended taste of MLB action as the Guardians’ regular catcher.

However, the rest of the lineup was lacking.  The Guardians finished last among all teams in home runs, 29th of 30 in slugging percentage, and 27th in both OPS and runs scored.  It was another inconsistent offense that required the pitching staff to be great to have a hope of legitimately contending, so when a number of injuries reduced the staff to being just decent, the club suffered.

For some added salt in the lineup’s wound, outfielders Nolan Jones (Rockies) and Will Benson (Reds) ended up having breakout seasons after the Guardians respectively dealt the outfielders in offseason trades.  It’s hard to say if either Jones or Benson would’ve posted similar numbers if they’d have stayed in Cleveland, though that might speak to a separate issue of why the organization couldn’t unlock that potential itself.

More offense is clearly necessary, so where can the Guardians improve?  Ramirez and the Naylors have third base, first base, and catcher covered.  Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan will hold everyday positions in 2024, even if perhaps not necessarily in their normal spots of second base and left field.  Getting Gimenez anywhere close to his 2022 numbers would be a boost unto itself for the Guardians, as after signing a seven-year, $106.5MM extension, he delivered only around league-average production this season.

If Gimenez isn’t moved across the middle infield, former top-100 prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and Tyler Freeman will all be competing for the shortstop job.  Arias is the favorite since he received most of the playing time in the latter stages of 2023, though none of the trio has hit much of anything during their (admittedly small) sample size of MLB playing time.  With these three, Jose Tena, Juan Brito, and more interesting middle-infield prospects down on the farm, Cleveland could again look to trade from this surplus for help at other positions.

This leaves the DH spot and the two non-Kwan outfield positions as the most obvious positions of need.  Kwan is one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, but if he can handle center field, Myles Straw could become a fourth outfielder and allow for the Guardians to put more pop into the corner slots.  Straw continues to be an excellent defender, but also one of the least-impactful hitters in baseball.  Among other in-house outfielders, Will Brennan didn’t hit much, Oscar Gonzalez hit even less and was relegated to Triple-A, and Ramon Laureano had about league-average production after being claimed from the A’s in August, but that’s probably not enough to avoid a non-tender.

First baseman Kyle Manzardo (acquired in the Civale trade) and top outfield prospects George Valera and Chase DeLauter should all be making their MLB debuts at some point in 2024, and the Guardians would love to see any of them have an immediate breakout.  In the interim, however, the Guards need bats now, thus opening the door for one or two veteran bats on short-term control.

After spending relatively big by their standards to sign Bell (two years, $33MM), and Mike Zunino (one year, $6MM), one wonders if the Guardians are willing to stretch the budget even that far into free agency.  The pickings are slim in general in this winter’s thin position-player market, and Cleveland’s choices are further limited by their modest payroll.  Furthering narrowing the field is the left-handed slant of the current Guardians lineup, so the team might prioritize right-handed or switch-hitters.

Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or a bounce-back candidate like Hunter Renfroe could fit.  If more lefty swingers are on the radar, maybe Joc Pederson or old friend Michael Brantley could fall within the Guards’ price range.  The Guardians figure to be one of many teams vying for Aaron Hicks since the Yankees are covering almost all of his salary over the next two seasons, but the rejuvenated Hicks might prefer to join a more clear-cut contender or just stay in Baltimore.  For first base/DH types that could share time with Josh Naylor, players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper, or another former Cleveland staple in Carlos Santana could be considered.

Turning to the trade market, the Guardians’ enviable ability to keep developing quality big league starters can get them involved in several trade conversations, depending on how much pitching depth Cleveland is willing to sacrifice.  Making a blockbuster strike for, say, Juan Soto doesn’t fit Antonetti/Chernoff’s traditionally measured approach, but landing a quality bat with more team control is a possibility.  Teams like the Cardinals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, or Nationals are all varying degrees of fits in pitcher-for-outfielder scenarios, and any number of clubs could further emerge since every team always needs pitching in a broad sense.

Could landing a veteran bat for Shane Bieber be feasible?  It would depart from the Guardians’ usual model of trying to get at least one big league-ready younger talent and a longer-term prospect when dealing one of its established veteran stars, yet Bieber’s trade stock has taken a bit of a dip.  Bieber is only arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and he has had two of his last three seasons shortened by injuries.  It seems possible that Cleveland might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline if he’d been healthy, rather than on the 60-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.

Though years of Bieber-related trade rumors seem to have led to this crescendo in the 2023-24 offseason, an argument can be made that the Guardians should also hold onto the right-hander until at least the trade deadline.  This past season has underlined the importance of rotation depth, with Bieber and Cal Quantrill each missing a good chunk of the season and Triston McKenzie limited to only 16 innings.  If Bieber was dealt, Cleveland would be left with a rotation of McKenzie and Quantrill looking for bounce-back years, and the outstanding but inexperienced rookie trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.  It’s still a solid group on paper, though more injuries or at least one sophomore slump could again leave the Guards scrambling, even if more young arms (headlined by Xzavion Curry) are waiting for their opportunity.

If Bieber was retained, the Guardians could explore moving Quantrill as an alternative, as Quantrill has two years of arbitration eligibility to Bieber’s one.  It would also be something of a sell-low situation given how shoulder problems limited Quantrill to 99 2/3 innings (with a 5.24 ERA) in 2023.  Bieber also has more front-of-the-rotation upside, whereas teams might have more questions about Quantrill’s low-strikeout, soft-contact approach, even he has produced very good results when healthy over the last four seasons.

The bullpen was around the middle of the pack last year, though any upgrades might be pretty low-key since Cleveland hasn’t traditionally made many splashes in adding relief pitching.  Bringing in another left-hander could be a priority, or just a veteran arm or two on a minor league contract.  As always, the bullpen could be a way for some MLB-ready future starters to get their feet wet against big league competition, like how Curry worked mostly as a reliever in 2023.

The bench might likewise not get a lot of focus, and if a couple of new outfield/DH types are indeed acquired, the bench mix could be somewhat set given the presence of Straw, Brennan, and the utility infielders.  Cam Gallagher’s lack of offense makes him a non-tender candidate, but since the Guardians have shown a propensity for all-glove/no-bat catchers, the team might retain him as Naylor’s backup.  If Gallagher is let go, utilityman David Fry might be considered for the role, if the Guards are okay having a backup catcher with more versatility than normal.

In some ways, 2023 paralleled Cleveland’s previous losing season in 2021, when several pitching injuries dropped the team to an 80-82 record.  With this in mind, better rotation health alone might be enough to get the Guards (as they did in 2022) right back into contention the following season, even if adding more hitting might be a cleaner path to consistent winning than continuing to rely so heavily on pitching and defense.  There is also the x-factor of whether or not the Guardians’ winning formula can continue without Francona skillfully balancing the dugout, as there’s naturally no way to entirely replace what the skipper brought to the organization.  Nobody expects the Guardians’ next manager to be the next Francona, but there’s plenty of pressure trying to both fill the shoes of a legend and try a team back into the playoff hunt.

Click here to read the transcript of the Guardians-centric Mark Polishuk held in conjunction with the Offseason Outlook

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals

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