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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Pirates-centric chat today at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Pirates’ blistering start to the season gave way to another year of losing baseball and deadline selling. With many members of their vaunted farm system now on the cusp of their first full season in the Majors, they should be set for a more active offseason than in recent years.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $100MM through 2030 (includes buyout of 2031 club option)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: $50MM through 2029 (includes buyout of 2030 club option)

2024 commitments: $17MM
Total future commitments: $150MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

The beginning of the offseason is often a time for changes in the front office or in the dugout, particularly among losing clubs, but there’s no real risk of that among the Pittsburgh brass. Manager Derek Shelton was extended earlier this season, with his new deal beginning next year. There’s been no indication that general manager Ben Cherington is in any kind of jeopardy after a third losing season. Cherington was hired to embark on a full-scale rebuilding effort, and ownership knew from the start that it’d be a lengthy process.

The first and most straightforward decision of the winter will come on lefty Jarlin Garcia’s $3.25MM club option, which will surely be declined after he missed the year due to injury. There’s no buyout on the option, so the Bucs will let him go after a season spent on the injured list.

A larger and more pressing issue for Bucs fans pertains to franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. The former National League MVP returned to the organization that drafted him last offseason, signing a one-year deal worth $5MM. McCutchen has been vocal about the fact that the Pirates and Pittsburgh feel like home to him, and with his 37th birthday just two weeks away as of this writing, he’s made clear that he has little appetite to continue his career elsewhere.

Cherington has been candid about his desire to bring McCutchen back in 2024, stating earlier this month that the two parties would discuss a new contract this offseason. McCutchen’s 2023 campaign ended early due to a partial Achilles tear, but he picked up his 2000th career hit and 400th career double this year in black and gold. The overwhelming likelihood is that he’ll return to the Pirates on another short-term deal in 2024, this time taking aim at his 300th career home run — he’s currently at 299 — and again serving as a veteran mentor for a young Bucs club. Of course, Cutch brings more than just leadership to the table; he batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen homers and 11 steals in 112 games this year.

Assuming McCutchen is back, he’ll be the primary designated hitter. The Pirates gave him just 64 innings in right field this year, and that was before the aforementioned Achilles injury. He’ll be locked into a largely regular lineup role, joining third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in that regard. Hayes had a rough first half but continued to provide elite defense through his struggles at the plate. And, in the second half of the season, he’s erupted with a .307/.345/.556 slash line. Suwinski strikes out too much to hit for a high average but draws tons of walks (14.6%) and has thus far swatted 26 homers and swiped 13 bags. Reynolds’ bat is down a bit from peak levels, but he turned in his third straight season of 20-plus homers and was still a well above-average offensive performer.

At least one other spot on the diamond seems all but solidified. It’s been a lost year for Oneil Cruz, who suffered a fractured ankle in a home plate collision with White Sox catcher Seby Zavala in early April. The 6’7″ Cruz has long been lauded as one of the top prospects in the game due to his near-unparalleled raw power and plus speed. Losing his entire age-24 season to injury is a blow to his development, but he’s still controllable for five years. In his first 410 MLB plate appearances, he’s batted .237/.302/.449 with a jarring 33.7% strikeout rate, but Cruz has some of the loudest tools in the game and possesses star potential. He’ll treat the 2023 season as a mulligan as he looks to realize his upside.

As far as position players go, the Pirates don’t necessarily have anyone else firmly entrenched just yet. Top catching prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both made their MLB debuts this year, but both struggled at the plate. Davis saw the vast majority of his time in right field, and a move out from behind the plate has long been viewed as a possibility for the 2021 No. 1 overall pick. The Bucs only gave him two big league innings at catcher, though they’ve not yet said he won’t play the position at all in the future. Still, it seems that Rodriguez could well be the preferred option there, with Davis sliding into an outfield/first base/DH/part-time catcher role if the bat picks up.

Both Rodriguez and Davis will play big roles with the Bucs next year, but it might still be prudent to bring in some veteran competition, even if only on a minor league deal. Jason Delay is a fine backup catcher, but if one or both of Rodriguez and Davis wind up needing time in the minors, having another backstop (e.g. Curt Casali, Sandy Leon, Luke Maile) on hand would hold value.

In the outfield, Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas are options if Davis needs some Triple-A time. But Joe is likely to be arb-eligible and saw his bat wilt after a torrid start to the season (.217/.309/.351 in his past 356 plate appearances). Rivas, 27, has huge Triple-A numbers but has yet to carry them to the Majors in parts of three seasons. Miguel Andujar is a non-tender candidate, and Joe could be as well. There are plenty of affordable corner outfielders on the market if the Bucs want to go outside the organization to provide some competition for Davis. Randal Grichuk, Hunter Renfroe and David Peralta will all be free agents, as will Travis Jankowski and Michael A. Taylor, if the preference is for someone more defensive-minded.

As far as areas that are in clear need of work, the right side of the infield stands out. Last offseason’s first base acquisitions, Carlos Santana and Ji Man Choi, were both traded at the deadline. The previously mentioned Joe wound up playing a significant amount at first base but has seen his season-long batting line dip below the league average despite his hot start to the year. Rivas presents another option here.

Rookie Jared Triolo is a third baseman who’s gotten a few brief looks at first base. He could be an option, but his .292/.382/.385 slash seems bound to regress when his .419 BABIP comes back down to Earth. And given his 29% strikeout rate, it’s fair to harbor some concerns. Prospect Malcom Nunez had a tough showing in his Triple-A debut this year, though he’s still just 22. Garrett Cooper and C.J. Cron are among the short-term options available in free agency,

At second base, none of Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero or Nick Gonzales have forcefully staked their claim to the position. All three are former prospects of note who have minor league options remaining, but second base is another area where the Bucs could at least bring in some veteran competition to steady the position in 2024 and serve as a bridge to top prospect Termarr Johnson. The free agent market at second base is thin behind Whit Merrifield, but the trade and non-tender markets could open up additional avenues.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s some degree of a foundation in place. Mitch Keller will be back to lead the staff. There could be trade rumors surrounding the righty, as has been the case for much of the past two years, but Keller has stepped up as a solid mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, often showing flashes of an even higher ceiling. With two years of club control remaining, he could well be an extension candidate. (More on that in a bit.) Keller and fellow righty Johan Oviedo — acquired from the Cardinals alongside Nunez in exchange for Jose Quintana — have cemented themselves on the staff. It’s been a rollercoaster season for Oviedo, but the end result will be 175ish innings with an ERA in the low 4.00s. He’s currently at 172 2/3 frames with a 4.12 mark and one start remaining.

There are both depth options and rising prospects who can factor into the starting pitching mix. Righty JT Brubaker will return from Tommy John surgery at some point early next summer. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had a tough year but logged a 3.86 ERA in 84 innings with the 2022 Phillies. He’ll be out of options next year, so he’ll have to make the club as either a fifth starter or long reliever — or else be traded or designated for assignment. Right-hander Roansy Contreras entered the year looking like a rotation building block but has struggled in Pittsburgh and in Triple-A. He’ll get additional opportunities in the future, though it’s always possible they come in the bullpen.

Prospects like Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz have already gotten their feet wet, and there’s more help on the horizon. Anthony Solometo, Jared Jones and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could all debut next year. Skenes’ eventual arrival will be one of the most eagerly anticipated pitching debuts since Stephen Strasburg first took the mound for the Nationals in 2010.

In-house options notwithstanding, the Bucs figure to add at least one arm this year. They’ve added a low-ceiling veteran stabilizer in each of the past three offseasons, bringing Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill aboard on one-year deals — and trading all three at that season’s respective deadline. There’s merit to making a similar play for some bulk innings this winter, with Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley and Martin Perez among the options who’d fit that bill.

Even if the Pirates do make such an addition, however, it’s quite arguable that the time has come for them to do something a bit more on the pitching front. A long-term play for a young ace like Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t going to be in the cards for a club with such a modest annual payroll, and no one is going to predict the Pirates to sign Blake Snell on the heels of a Cy Young-caliber season. But the market offers plenty of upside plays, be it a multi-year pact for a still-young pitcher like Jack Flaherty or a shorter-term pickup of a pitcher looking to rebound from injury. Frankie Montas and Luis Severino both fit that description and would both bring substantially higher upside to the Pirates than their prior offseason pickups.

The bullpen, outside of David Bednar, is lacking in household names but not in quality. Bednar is a star and one of the game’s best bullpen arms, but Pittsburgh also got strong results out of less-heralded names like Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski and even waiver/DFA pickups like Ryan Borucki and Thomas Hatch.

Some of the rotation candidates who don’t stick as starters will inevitably end up here, but there will also be injuries and regression among 2023’s quietly solid group. There’s certainly room to bring in a veteran arm here, though any veteran seeking closing opportunities will likely look elsewhere, as Bednar won’t be displaced — nor (to the chagrin of other fan bases) will he likely be traded with the Pirates hoping to emerge from their rebuild sooner than later. Phil Maton, Keynan Middleton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Fulmer and Brent Suter are among the many, many relief options available this winter.

Of course, repeated suggestions of the Pirates spending money will be met with anything ranging from skepticism to jokes and mockery. But the Pirates have just two players under contract beyond the current season, Reynolds and Hayes, and they’ll pay that pair a combined $17MM in 2024. There are a handful of players due raises in arbitration, but the prices figure to be modest. Keller will be due a raise on this year’s $2.375MM salary and figures to be the most expensive of the bunch. Brubaker will likely repeat last year’s $2.275MM salary after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is in his first trip through arbitration, and Borucki won’t cost much as a minor league signee.

Even after those arb raises, the Pirates could have under $30MM on the books. That doesn’t include league-minimum players to round out the roster, but it’s nevertheless a gap of more than $40MM from where their 2023 payroll began. And with increased expectations, it’s eminently plausible that ownership will give Cherington & Co. a bit more latitude in terms of spending (albeit not too much more).

Just as there’s room to look into free agency more extensively than in seasons past, there’s also payroll space to consider locking up key long-term pieces. Keller hasn’t reached ace status but holds a strong 3.82 ERA in 54 starts and 318 innings since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire in May 2022. That includes a poor finish to his 2023 season, which will surely be a factor the Pirates consider, but Keller’s workload is at career-high levels and the overall body of work the past two seasons remains strong. He’s logged better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that time (23.5%, 7.5%, 46.1%) and is just 27 years old.

There are plenty of parallels between Keller and Twins righty Pablo Lopez, who inked a four-year, $73.5MM deal with Minnesota earlier this year when he was in the same service class that Keller will be in this coming offseason. Perhaps Keller’s slightly lesser track record and shaky finish will prevent him from quite reaching that annual value, but it’s certainly a relevant comparison.

Bednar, too, stands as a possible extension candidate — though multi-year deals for relievers are rare, particularly once they’ve reached their arbitration years. He has a healthier track record and more saves than Rays righty Pete Fairbanks, who back in March signed a three-year, $12MM deal that bought out his arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over one free agent year. Bednar is poised to do quite well in arbitration and might command close to double that commitment to put pen to paper, but it’s a concept worth exploring for an excellent reliever who’s popular with his hometown fans.

The Bucs could also look into a long-term deal with Cruz, though that’ll be a tall task as Cruz might want to put this year’s freak injury behind him and prove himself on the field before talking years and dollars.

It’s been a long time since Pirates fans got to follow a playoff-caliber club in Pittsburgh, but the latest rebuilding effort under a still relatively new front office regime is likely moving toward a conclusion. A lot rides on the continued development of high-end prospects like Davis, Rodriguez, Skenes, Jones, Solometo and Priester, but everyone from that group could contribute as soon as next season. Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Cruz, Keller and Bednar give some immediate optimism, and they’ll be joined by that group of promising prospect as well as some veteran additions in an increasingly competitive NL Central next year.

The Twins’ Bullpen Is In Good Shape For The Postseason

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The Twins’ bullpen got a big boost last night, when flamethrowing righties Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart returned to the mound. Paddack has been out all season recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Stewart has been on the shelf with elbow discomfort for the past three months.

Paddack nearly made his return on Sunday, but a rain delay ended his outing before it began. Thus, it wasn’t until last night that he finally threw a pitch in a Major League Baseball game, his first since last May. While the results weren’t quite what he hoped for – he gave up three runs in two innings of work – the underlying numbers were encouraging. The 6-foot-5 right-hander struck out four, earning six called strikes and seven whiffs. His fastball was averaging 96 mph and touching 99; last season, his four-seam averaged just 93 mph and topped out at 96. To be fair, he was a starting pitcher last year, but even so, a 3-mph bump is a promising sign of good things to come. Paddack was never a power pitcher during his time as a starter, but he seems to have discovered a penchant for high heat.

Stewart, for his part, picked up right where he left off. The 31-year-old turned heads earlier this season, showing off a 97-mph fastball and striking out 35.4% of the batters he faced. His heater was back in full force on Tuesday, averaging just under 98 mph. He struck out two of three opposing hitters, inducing eight swings and four whiffs and lowering his season ERA to 0.68.

With Paddack and Stewart back in the fold, the Twins suddenly find themselves with an abundance of talented relievers, an asset every team longs for but few possess. Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagán, and Caleb Thielbar lead the way, with capable arms like Griffin Jax and Kody Funderburk behind them. Paddack and Stewart provide further depth, as do recently converted starters Louie Varland and Kenta Maeda. That’s nine arms the Twins can count on in October, many of whom have dominant reliever upside.

Manager Rocco Baldelli will lean a little harder on his most trustworthy guys, as all managers do in the playoffs. Still, Duran and Pagán can’t throw every day. When Baldelli has to turn to another bullpen arm, there really isn’t a bad option in the bunch.

Suffice it to say, this hasn’t been the case all year. On the season, Twins relievers rank eighth in the AL with a 3.98 ERA, ninth with 3.2 FanGraphs WAR, and 11th with 36 saves. Things have only gotten worse in the second half, in which they have a 4.27 ERA and 10 blown saves in 28 chances.

However, Minnesota’s bullpen looks completely different today than it has the rest of the year. Indeed, over the last two weeks, they lead the AL with a 2.93 ERA, and that’s without much contribution from Paddack, Stewart, and Maeda. Simply put, the Twins have added by subtraction, replacing their least effective relievers with stronger arms. They cut ties with Jorge López (5.09 ERA) and Dylan Floro (5.29). They optioned Brent Headrick (6.31) and Jordan Balazovic (4.44). Several more relievers are on the 60-day IL, including Jovani Moran (5.31), Jorge Alcala (6.46), and José De León (5.28).

Those seven pitchers threw a total of 175 1/3 innings in relief for the Twins this season; that’s one-third of the team’s bullpen workload. In those innings, they combined for an unsightly 5.39 ERA. To put that in perspective, all other Twins relievers have a 3.29 ERA this year, more than two full runs lower. That’s wider than the gap between the Dodgers’ bullpen (3.41 ERA) and the Rockies’ bullpen (5.31). Meanwhile, the nine relievers who currently make up the Twins’ bullpen have combined for a 2.84 ERA in 276 innings of work.

This team will enter the postseason as an underdog. By winning their division, the Twins are guaranteed to be either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the American League, yet still, they are likely to finish with the worst record in the AL playoff field. On paper, they are the weaker party, whether they’re facing the Blue Jays, the Astros, the Rangers, or the Mariners. That being the case, the Twins must be better than their regular season record suggests if they hope to advance.

It will help if Minnesota gets Carlos Correa, and possibly Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, back in time for the Wild Card series. The lineup could certainly use the star power. Ultimately, however, the relief corps will be this team’s secret weapon. The Twins have more depth and fewer liabilities in the bullpen than at any other point this season. Accordingly, they’ll be counting on their relievers to give them an edge come October.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers showed signs of progress in the first season under their new front office regime. There’s still another corner to turn to make this a legitimate contender. They could try to close the gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Javier Báez, SS: $98MM through 2027 (can opt out after this season)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $49MM through 2026 (can opt out after this season)

Option Decisions

  • Miguel Cabrera, DH: $30MM club option ($8MM buyout)
  • Carson Kelly, C: $3.5MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $33MM
Total future commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $106MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Kelly, Meadows, Turnbull

Free Agents

Towards the end of last season, the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila and hired Giants general manager Scott Harris away to serve as the new president of baseball operations in Detroit. Harris played things cautiously, taking the 2023 campaign as an evaluative year. Now heading into his second winter at the helm, he’ll face more urgency.

Harris recently made a notable off-field move, tabbing new GM Jeff Greenberg as #2 in the front office hierarchy. Greenberg had spent over a decade in the Cubs’ front office, where he overlapped with Harris, before a year in the NHL with the Blackhawks. He’s back in baseball to work under his old colleague and alongside fourth-year manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers weren’t facing any significant free agent departures last winter. That’s not the case this time around, as starter Eduardo Rodriguez could head back to the open market. The veteran southpaw has rebounded from a 2022 plagued by middling production and an extended stay away from the club for personal reasons. Rodriguez has turned in a 3.40 ERA across 25 starts, striking out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters. While his production has tailed off since a late-May pulley rupture in the index finger of his throwing hand, there’s still a good chance he hits the market.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his five-year free agent contract. His camp can make a strong case that he’s a superior pitcher to Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, each of whom secured four-year pacts ranging from $68MM to $72MM last winter. Rodriguez is clearly comfortable in Detroit and invoked his partial n0-trade clause to kill a deadline agreement that would’ve sent him to the Dodgers. He has been noncommittal when asked whether that decision would have any relation to his opt-out call.

From a strict financial perspective, it’d seem likely Rodriguez opts out. The Tigers would surely be happy to have him back in the fold if he plays out his current contract, though they’ll have to plan for the chance he heads elsewhere. There’s no suspense in two of the club’s other option decisions. Javier Báez is going to opt in for the final four years and $98MM on his contract. The team will pay an $8MM buyout to the retiring Miguel Cabrera.

Their final option call is on Carson Kelly. Detroit signed the veteran catcher after he was released by the Diamondbacks midseason. That deal gave the Tigers a $3.5MM option for what would be Kelly’s final year of arbitration. That’s less than Kelly would’ve made had he been tendered an arbitration contract.

Kelly hasn’t performed any better in Detroit than he did in Arizona. He’s hitting .182/.265/.295 in 16 games after running a .226/.283/.298 slash in the desert. Kelly’s production has cratered since he suffered a wrist injury midway through the 2021 season. Even at a $3.5MM price point, the Tigers could look elsewhere. Kelly would technically remain arb-eligible if the Tigers decline his option, though he’d surely be non-tendered at that point. It’d be illogical for the organization to tender him a contract at a higher value than the option price.

Even if they retain Kelly, he won’t be the starter. That falls to Jake Rogers, who has connected on 20 home runs in 353 trips to the plate. The 28-year-old pairs that power with highly-regarded defense. He’s a plus blocker, an above-average pitch framer and receives excellent reviews for his work with a pitching staff. If not Kelly, the Tigers would probably look to bring in another catcher but aren’t likely to seek out a new starter behind the dish.

On the other hand, they could look for upgrades at most spots on the infield. First base is the exception. Former #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson has begun to look like an impact slugger after struggling through his first season and a half in the majors. He’s the only player locked into a spot on the dirt.

Detroit has given looks to multi-positional options Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry. Ibáñez is hitting well in the second half; McKinstry had a solid start to the year but has tailed off significantly. They’re each viable MLB utility players. Neither has demonstrated they’re capable of holding down an everyday role for a full season. Ibáñez turns 31 next April, while McKinstry will be 29. It’s hard to count on either as regulars.

Things haven’t gone much better for the rest of Detroit’s infield. Nick Maton struggled on both sides of the ball after being acquired from Philadelphia in the Gregory Soto trade. Neither Zack Short nor Tyler Nevin has hit well. Late-season call Andre Lipcius is 25 and has never been viewed as a top prospect. Ryan Kreidler has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A.

At least at third base, the Tigers can hope for better production in the near future. Colt Keith has mashed at a .306/.380/.552 clip between the top two minor levels at age 21. He’s now one of the sport’s top prospects and will surely get a look at some point in 2024, though the Tigers haven’t tipped their hand if he’s in consideration for the Opening Day third base job. Harris resisted calls throughout the season to promote Keith or Justyn-Henry Malloy, instead opting for a slow trajectory for the organization’s top prospects.

Malloy is ostensibly an option at the hot corner himself, though scouting reports suggest he might be better suited for left field. Acquired in the Joe Jiménez trade last offseason, the 23-year-old Malloy owns a .277/.417/.474 line over a full season at Triple-A Toledo. As with Keith, he should be up early in the season, though the defensive home is still up in the air.

Detroit isn’t going to make a run at Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario, who has emerged as one of the better hitters in the upcoming free agent class after the Tigers non-tendered him a year ago. Players like McKinstry and Ibáñez could cover third base in the short term if Detroit wanted to give Keith a little more time in Triple-A. Yet they’d be well-served to add a regular up the middle.

The organization obviously hoped Báez would anchor the group when they signed him to a $140MM free agent deal two years ago. Instead, he has hit .230/.273/.360 in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate. Báez is still the starting shortstop for now, but Hinch began to curtail his playing time toward the end of the season. The contract alone isn’t a compelling justification for giving him everyday run.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, it’s an awful offseason to be on the hunt for middle infield help. Amed Rosario might be the best player in the free agent shortstop class. It’s barely better at second base, where Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier lead the group. There’s not much clearer supply on the trade market, where teams like the Giants and Marlins could also be in the mix.

Perhaps the Brewers would move Willy Adames, but he’s not a great fit for a fringe contender like Detroit with only one season of arbitration control remaining. The Cardinals seem reluctant to part with Tommy Edman. Baltimore could move Jorge Mateo, but he’s coming off a dreadful offensive season in his own right. There are a few more options at the keystone, where Brandon Drury or Cavan Biggio could be available — potentially bridging the gap to former #12 overall pick Jace Jung, who performed well at Double-A in his first full pro season.

Given the dearth of middle infield solutions, the Tigers could try to float Báez as a change-of-scenery candidate themselves. Yet he’d be an equally questionable solution for a team like San Francisco or Miami as he is in Detroit. They’d likely have to pay down over three-quarters of the remaining money just to facilitate a deal for a meager return. At that point, it’s probably better to hold onto him and hope for some sort of rebound.

Harris and his staff can feel a lot more comfortable with the outfield. They moved Riley Greene from center to right field late in the season. Assuming he progresses as expected after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, he’ll be back at one of those spots. Parker Meadows, who took over for Greene in center, hasn’t hit much in his first look at MLB pitching. He’s a good enough defender that Detroit could stick with him in hopes the offense improves. Matt Vierling and Akil Baddoo could see some time in the corners — Vierling might also pick up reps at second or third base — with Malloy potentially playing his way into the left field mix.

Kerry Carpenter has rated as a roughly average corner outfield defender. Regarded by many prospect evaluators as a DH-only type, he has impressed with a .288/.346/.492 clip and 20 homers in his first full season at the big league level. With Cabrera retiring, the Tigers could give Carpenter a few more DH at-bats, though his ability to play an adequate left field gives Hinch options.

With that group of young outfielders, it’s hard to envision the Tigers retaining Austin Meadows. Anxiety issues have kept Meadows on the injured list for the bulk of the past two seasons. His mental health is obviously the foremost concern, but there’s probably no longer a place for him on the MLB roster. Detroit could also entertain trade possibilities on Baddoo or Vierling, perhaps as a means of adding a depth starter or middle reliever.

Rodriguez’s potential departure leaves a question mark in the rotation, though there’s still a promising group of fairly young arms. Tarik Skubal is the headliner. He has returned from flexor surgery and picked up where he’d begun last season, working to a 2.95 ERA with a near-32% strikeout rate through 14 starts.

Former #1 overall pick Casey Mize should be back after last year’s Tommy John procedure. Matt Manning somehow was hit by a comebacker that broke his foot on two separate occasions this year. Around that brutal luck, he looked like a decent rotation piece (albeit with an ERA that outstripped his peripherals). Reese Olson has flashed mid-rotation potential in 98 innings as a rookie.

They’ll likely need at least one veteran arm to solidify the staff. Along with Rodriguez, the Tigers traded away Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and lost Matthew Boyd (an impending free agent) to Tommy John surgery. Neither Alex Faedo nor Joey Wentz has done enough to secure a rotation spot.

Detroit has ample short-term financial room. If Rodriguez opts out, they’d have just $33MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter. The arbitration class is relatively modest. Detroit has opened recent seasons with a player payroll in the $120-130MM range and has spent upwards of $200MM in the past (although that was under the late Mike Ilitch, while his son Christopher Ilitich is now the primary owner).

There’s ostensibly a chance for the organization to make a run at the top of the pitching market. Harris was hired from a Giants front office that generally eschewed long-term investments in starting pitching, preferring reclamation and/or mid-tier acquisitions. Whether he’ll carry that philosophy to Detroit remains to be seen.

If the Tigers wanted to aim high, they’d have a number of possibilities. A deal in the $200MM range for Blake Snell might be rich, but the likes of Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are consistent sources of above-average bulk innings. NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto just turned 25 in August, so his expected prime aligns well with a Detroit team emerging from a rebuild. If they prefer to emulate the Giants’ model, the likes of Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Michael Wacha (if his club option is declined by San Diego) could be targets.

Detroit could also subtract a notable name from the rotation picture. Spencer Turnbull once looked like an innings-eating mid-rotation starter who’d be a key contributor. According to various reports, the relationship between player and team looks to have soured over the past six months. Turnbull reported a neck injury after the Tigers attempted to option him to the minors in May, leading Detroit to put him on the major league IL.

The Tigers sent him to the minors once he was healthy, meaning he’ll finish the year just shy of five years of service. Turnbull reported a toenail avulsion that kept him off the mound for a few weeks immediately thereafter, though he has pitched since having the injured nail removed two weeks ago.

Whether the team/player relationship has soured or not, Turnbull looks to have been squeezed out of the rotation. He’s a potential non-tender candidate as a result, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Detroit finds a minor trade return from a club interested in giving Turnbull a fresh start.

The bullpen seems in good shape even after last winter’s Jiménez and Soto trades. They’ll likely let José Cisnero walk in free agency after a dismal second half. A quartet of Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Will Vest and Tyler Holton still gives Hinch a strong collection of options. Perhaps they’ll bring in a second left-hander behind Holton, but it’s a quality relief group.

Detroit erroneously thought the rebuild was over two years ago. They made the ill-fated trade of Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance draft pick for Meadows and pushed in for Báez. The internal core wasn’t ready to take the next step at that point. It might be now, with Torkelson, Greene and Carpenter emerging and Skubal reestablishing himself as a top-end starter. There are still holes; the middle infield will be particularly difficult to solve.

Still, there’s a solid MLB nucleus, a few more upper minors contributors looming, and a mostly clear payroll ledger now that the Cabrera contract is drawing to a close. The Tigers play in the sport’s least competitive division. After a year to familiarize himself with the organization, does Harris consider this the right time to make a real effort at ending a nine-year playoff drought?

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Tigers-centric chat on 9-27-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals were a little more competitive than expected into late summer. They’ve improved on last year’s 107-loss showing but are likely headed for a fourth straight last-place finish in the NL East. The rebuild continues.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Stephen Strasburg, RHP: $105MM through 2026 ($80MM in deferred payments between 2028-30)
  • Keibert Ruiz, C: $48MM through 2030 (deal includes club options for ’31 and ’32)
  • Patrick Corbin, LHP: $35MM through 2024 ($10MM in deferred payments between 2025-26)
  • Trevor Williams, RHP: $7MM through 2024

Option Decisions

  • Victor Robles, CF: $3.3MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments: $85MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $195MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Robles, Smith, Chavis, Vargas, Arano, Kieboom

Free Agents

The Nationals may have already made what’ll be their most consequential decisions for the upcoming season. With manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo in the final years of their respective contracts, the possibility existed for large-scale organizational changes. Instead, Washington has locked in leadership stability in recent weeks. Martinez signed a two-year extension with a team option for 2026; Rizzo inked a multi-year pact of unreported length not long after.

Rizzo has been at the helm for nearly a decade and a half, a tenure exceeded only by Brian Cashman (Yankees) and John Mozeliak (Cardinals) among current baseball operations leaders. Martinez will be headed into his seventh season leading the dugout. Both have had success in Washington before their ongoing rebuild — highlighted by their 2019 World Series victory — offering reason for optimism they can lead the franchise back to success.

That’s unlikely to happen in 2024, however. The Nationals have made progress this year, as their win percentage is up from 34.5% to 43.9%. After finishing as the worst team in the majors in 2022, they own the game’s 24th-best record this season. Yet there’s still a wide discrepancy between the quality of the current roster and one that’s capable of competing for a playoff spot.

It’s most evident in the rotation, which is allowing exactly five earned runs per nine with the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Washington has had rare stability for a rotation performing at that level. Only six pitchers have logged even 30+ innings as starters.

On the plus side, their best performers have been a pair of young players who could be key pieces on the next competitive Washington club. Josiah Gray (4.00) and MacKenzie Gore (4.42) have the best ERAs of the group. Neither pitcher has developed into a top-of-the-rotation arm. They each still issue a few too many walks, while Gore has battled the home run ball. Gray’s production has tailed off in the second half. These issues aside, both hurlers have performed as big league-capable starters over a full season. They’ve done enough to secure spots in next year’s rotation, when the club will hope at least one takes a step forward to solidify himself as an above-average starter.

There’s not as much optimism for the rest of the group. Jake Irvin doesn’t miss bats and looks best suited as a depth option. Joan Adon has never found big league success. Veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams are each under contract through 2024 and have taken their share of innings but without great production. Corbin is on his third straight season with an ERA above 5.00 as he plays on a lofty free agent contract that went awry after one year (albeit one in which he was a key contributor to the World Series win). The signing of Williams to a two-year deal last winter hasn’t panned out.

Stephen Strasburg remains on the roster after the surprising reversal of course on his planned retirement. Continuing to devote him a 40-man spot when he’s unlikely to ever pitch again is a bizarre decision on the organization’s part, though it’s not particularly consequential at this point of the rebuild.

Washington could run things back with the same rotation group, as everyone is either under contract or club control. Former first-round draftee Cade Cavalli could break back into the mix midseason after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The Nats have options to plug innings, which isn’t true of every rebuilding team. Still, aside from a step forward from one of Gore or Gray, they couldn’t project much better results than they received this season. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one starter who could push Irvin back to Triple-A or Williams into the long relief role he’s had for the bulk of his career.

It’s hard to envision the Nats spending at the top of the market. They could offer a rotation spot to a rebound candidate like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas or Alex Wood in the hope that player could serve as a midseason trade chip. If they wanted to secure some stability over multiple years without making a huge financial commitment, they could consider the likes of Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

They’ll probably also add an arm or two to the relief corps, as Washington has the lowest bullpen strikeout rate in the league. It’s not time to play at the top of the market for Josh Hader or pursue a veteran closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. There are a number of middle relievers who’ll be available on one or two-year deals that could add swing-and-miss to the group. Ryne Stanek, Shintaro Fujinami and Keynan Middleton are among the power arms available in free agency.

Any free agent pickups would join a relief corps led by Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and quietly effective waiver pickup Robert Garcia. The Nats could listen to trade offers on Finnegan or Harvey, though they’re not under pressure to make a deal with both pitchers eligible for arbitration through 2025.

There’s more reason for optimism on the other side of the ball. Washington has the potential for a strong future position player core, most of which was acquired in trades of their last group of stars. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams are already playing regular roles on the big league club. Abrams has had a solid season to secure the shortstop job. Ruiz hasn’t broken through, but he’ll get every opportunity behind the plate after last winter’s $50MM extension that runs through 2030.

Riley Adams is a good complementary backstop, so there’s no need to add a catcher. They’ll likely look to bring in infield help around Abrams. They’ve closed the season giving regular run to Dominic Smith, Luis García and Ildemaro Vargas around the infield. Smith has hit .254/.324/.361 in 571 plate appearances after signing a $2MM deal last offseason and could be non-tendered.

García turns 24 next May, and may be young enough to get another shot at second base. It might be his last chance. The left-handed hitter owns a .265/.299/.382 line with nine homers over 466 trips to the plate this season. He’s now a .265/.292/.394 hitter in 1229 PA and 320 MLB games over parts of four seasons. While García has plus contact skills, he hasn’t shown a discerning plate approach nor much power. The profile is built around a largely empty batting average right now. That’d be more tenable if García were a plus defender, but public metrics have graded him as a below-average second baseman over his career.

While García has youth and prospect pedigree on his side, there’s no argument for giving Vargas the third base job. The journeyman infielder has a .251/.305/.363 slash over a career-high 274 plate appearances. He’s a versatile defender with contact skills but limited offensive upside, much better suited for a utility role. He has held down the hot corner since the Nats traded Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. They’ll need to look outside the organization again this winter.

Last year’s signing of Candelario to a $5MM deal after he was non-tendered by Detroit worked out perfectly. They’ll have a hard time repeating that level of success — most free agent rebound fliers don’t bounce back the way Candelario did — but the Nationals will probably take a shot on a similar style of player. Candelario himself has likely played his way into a three-plus year deal that’ll take him out of Washington’s price range. Players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Joey Wendle should be available on a one-year pact, or Nick Senzel or Santiago Espinal could be non-tendered or traded for minimal return.

A one-year stopgap is probably all that’ll be required. Former first-round pick Brady House played his way to Double-A, where he hit .324/.358/.475 in 36 games at age 20. While it’s too soon to count on House as a key contributor for 2024, he could debut late next year and hopefully seize the third base job headed into ’25.

Washington also has high-end prospects approaching the big league outfield. James Wood (acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto deal) and the 2023 draft’s #2 overall pick Dylan Crews are widely regarded as top 10 minor league talents in the sport. Wood joined House in reaching Double-A before his 21st birthday.  Wood ran an impressive .248/.344/.492 line with 18 homers across 87 games, and while the power-hitting outfielder struck out a fair amount, that’s to be expected for a 6’6″ hitter facing far older pitching. Crews shredded SEC arms at LSU and reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.

As with House, it’d be optimistic to expect either player at Nationals Park in the first half of next season. A promotion towards the middle or tail end of the year seems attainable, again offering hope they could be everyday players by 2025. It’s unlikely all three hit the ground running at the MLB level — even a lot of top prospects struggle out of the gate — but it’s an enviable collection of approaching talent.

When Wood and Crews arrive, they’d likely join Lane Thomas in the everyday outfield. The 28-year-old owns a .270/.319/.472 slash with 27 homers through 658 trips to the plate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching while hitting at a league average clip versus righties. While Thomas may be more of a complementary piece on a first-division club, he has proven an excellent find for Washington — which acquired him from the Cardinals for the final half-season of Jon Lester’s career in 2021.

Thomas is under arbitration control through 2025. His name surfaced in trade speculation this summer, though there’s no indication the Nats got all that close to making a deal. While they’ll surely find interest again, he doesn’t seem any more likely to move next winter than he did at the deadline. The organization’s long-term financial slate is clear enough that Thomas makes sense as an extension candidate. A guarantee in the $25-30MM range that buys out his remaining two arbitration seasons and first free agent year (2026) with a club option for a second could be mutually beneficial. It’d lock in some financial certainty for a relative late bloomer while ensuring Thomas doesn’t hit free agency before Washington is ready to contend.

As with third base, the Nats will probably bring in a veteran outfielder to hold the fort for a season. Former top prospect Victor Robles has missed the bulk of the year and seems a non-tender possibility. Neither Alex Call nor Jake Alu have provided any offense. Stone Garrett was a solid right-handed platoon option but suffered a gruesome leg injury that ended his season. Jacob Young doesn’t bring much offensive upside to the table in center field.

Washington guaranteed Corey Dickerson $2.25MM to add a veteran bat to the outfield last offseason. They’ll probably aim a little higher this time around. The likes of Hunter Renfroe and Adam Duvall could secure an annual salary in the $6-10MM range (perhaps for two years in Duvall’s case). Ramón Laureano or Seth Brown could be available following a non-tender. A corner outfield acquisition could take some DH at-bats from Joey Meneses — who has hit at a league average level in his follow-up to an excellent small-sample showing as a 30-year-old rookie — if Wood or Crews force their way to the big leagues early on.

There should generally be some short-term flexibility for Rizzo and his front office. Strasburg, Corbin, Williams and Ruiz are the only players with guaranteed contracts for next season. They have a deep class of arbitration-eligible players but none who are going to break the bank individually.

It’s less clear if there’s any appetite for a notable multi-year commitment. The franchise’s financial picture has been a question for a few seasons. The MASN rights dispute with the Orioles interfered with the Lerner family’s efforts to sell the club last year. It’s possible the Lerners again try to explore offers, though the TV situation isn’t much clearer now than it was 12 months ago.

The organization has sliced player payroll over the past few years. That’s standard procedure for a team amidst a rebuild, yet the ownership uncertainty takes on more significance as the club gets closer to contention. While the Strasburg and Ruiz contracts are the only ones running beyond next season, they’re on the hook for deferred payments of $15MM annually to Max Scherzer through 2028 and owe Corbin another $10MM in deferred salary over two more seasons. Strasburg’s contract won’t be paid in full until 2030.

Against those financial questions, the roster is beginning to take shape. The Nationals could have a viable position player core in place by 2025 depending on the progressions of Crews, Wood and House (as well as Abrams and Ruiz at the big league level). The pitching is less impressive overall, though Gray, Gore and Cavalli offer some intriguing individual pieces. Washington isn’t ready to compete yet, but things could be a lot more exciting at this time next year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Nationals-centric chat on 9-26-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Righty Relievers

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MLBTR’s position by position preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relievers. While there’s no one at the top of this group who’ll rival Josh Hader among the southpaws, there are a number of impressive middle to late inning arms who’ll hit the market.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

High-Leverage/Potential Setup Arms

Hicks is both the youngest and hardest-throwing name on this year’s bullpen market. The Cardinals couldn’t seem to make up their mind whether they wanted him to be a starter or reliever, but he’s having his best year to date in the latter of those two roles. In 63 2/3 innings between the Cards and Blue Jays, Hicks has logged a 3.11 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate and massive 58.5% ground-ball rate. His strikeouts are down to a roughly average 23.5% since being traded, but his 7.1% walk rate since the trade would also be a career-best.

Hicks’ typical 100 mph sinker has dropped to an average of, ahem, “only” 99.3 mph with the Jays after sitting at 100.7 mph in St. Louis prior to the swap. It’s still absolutely overpowering velocity, and the dip in heat feels like a worthwhile trade-off if he can keep his command at this level, especially since his ground-ball rate remains unchanged. Hicks only just turned 27 this month, so even a three-year deal would conclude just weeks after he turns 30.

He’s already had Tommy John surgery, so there’s some injury risk, but his unrivaled youth and power arsenal will serve him well. Hicks will be among the top three to four options on the market this year.

While Jimenez isn’t as young as Hicks, he’s still atypical for a free agent reliever. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at a three-year pact coming off consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. Jimenez has turned in 54 2/3 innings of 3.13 ERA ball in his first season as a Brave after an offseason trade from the Tigers.

With a fastball that lands in the 95-96 MPH range, Jimenez has consistently missed bats. He has fanned more than 30% of opponents in consecutive years and racked up swinging strikes on 15.4% of his pitches. Since an uncharacteristic spike in walks in 2021, he has limited free passes to around a 6% clip in each of the last two seasons.

The only moderate area of concern lies in Jimenez’s batted ball profile. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which makes him susceptible to home runs. He’s allowing homers at a higher than average 1.48 HR/9 clip on the year and has allowed 1.35 homers per nine for his career. This year’s league average for relievers is 1.10 HR/9.

Johnson has proven one of the best deadline acquisitions of the summer. The right-hander carried a 6.00 ERA over 39 frames for the Rockies. The Braves acquired him for a pair of minor league pitchers and he’s now a key performer in their quality relief corps.

Since the trade, Johnson owns a 0.83 ERA across 21 2/3 innings. He’s keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 58% clip and striking out just under a third of opponents. He has more than halved his walk rate from 13.1% in Colorado to 6.1% for the Braves. Behind a 96 MPH heater and a power curveball in the mid-80s, he’s getting whiffs on almost 17% of offerings.

Johnson will be 33 next May and lost a good chunk of the 2022 season to forearm tendinitis. That could keep the offers limited to two years, but he should secure one of the stronger annual salaries in the relief class thanks to his dominant second half.

Lopez, 30 in January, doesn’t miss the “hardest-throwing” distinction among this year’s class by much. The longtime White Sox hurler has averaged 98.4 mph on his heater in 2023 and is in his third straight season with a mid-3.00s ERA (or better). In 64 frames spread across the Sox, Angels and Guardians, Lopez has a 3.38 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. That strikeout rate is the best of his career, but Lopez’s walk rate is more than double the 5% at which it sat in 2021-22 combined.

Somewhat interestingly, Lopez has done his best work of the season since being claimed by Cleveland, where he’s throwing his changeup more than twice as much as he did with the ChiSox. Perhaps that’s small sample noise — or perhaps it’s a recipe for success. Regardless, a 30-year-old righty who sits 98-99, regularly hits triple digits, and boasts a 3.18 ERA over his past three seasons and 187 innings isn’t going to lack interest. Lopez is going to get a multi-year deal — likely at a premium annual rate.

Stephenson has gone from unheralded journeyman acquisition to high-octane arm within a manner of months. He owned a 5.14 ERA in 14 appearances for the Pirates when he was dealt to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams in a June 2 trade. Since landing in Tampa Bay, he’s been one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over 36 1/3 frames as a Ray, Stephenson carries a 2.48 ERA. He’s striking out an eye-popping 41.8% of batters faced while walking just 6% of opponents. His dominance on a pitch-for-pitch basis is laughable. Stephenson has gotten a swinging strike on 28.2% of his pitches as a Ray and 24.1% of his offerings this season overall. Not only is that the highest rate of any pitcher with 50+ innings, it’s more than three percentage points clear of second-place Felix Bautista.

How will the market value a pitcher who has been arguably the game’s most dominant reliever for three and a half months after a career of inconsistency? Pitchers like Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero have landed three-year contracts largely behind one platform season that was less impressive than Stephenson’s last few months. The Padres went to four years and $34MM for Drew Pomeranz on the heels of a dominant second half a few seasons back.

Veterans with Closing Experience

Boxberger was on the injured list from May through September due to a forearm strain. He returned to pitch 5 1/3 innings, allowing two runs before going back on the injured list with another forearm strain. Boxberger has a long track record and was excellent as recently as 2020-22 (3.13 ERA in 164 2/3 innings). He’s averaged a career-low 91.4 mph on his heater this year while battling injuries, however. Between that velocity dip, his age and this year’s forearm strains, he’ll be limited to short-term interest.

Floro has an average strikeout rate, better-than-average command, a plus 54.4% grounder rate and a low 87.1 mph average exit velocity this season, but he’s still sporting a 5.59 ERA in large part due to a fluky .401 average on balls in play. He’s been used as a closer and setup man in recent seasons. Fielding-independent metrics still like his 2023 work (2.96 FIP, 3.35 SIERA) even if his results are a far cry from the 2.85 ERA he posted from 2020-22.

Kimbrel is the top pitcher in this group. Signed to a $10MM guarantee last winter, the nine-time All-Star has saved 23 games in 27 tries for the Phillies. He owns a 3.27 ERA over 66 frames while striking out just under a third of opposing hitters. Kimbrel is picking up swinging strikes on 13.5% of his offerings and averaging 96 MPH on his fastball.

While he’s clearly not the unhittable force he was at his peak, Kimbrel is still an above-average MLB reliever. He’ll hit free agency off a better platform year than he did a season ago, when he’d posted a 3.75 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate for the Dodgers. A similar contract to the one he landed from Philadelphia should be the floor. His camp could take aim at a two-year contract, as Kenley Jansen secured last offseason, albeit at a likely lesser average annual value than Jansen’s $16MM.

May has worked to a 3.43 ERA and saved 20 games in 44 2/3 innings for an MLB-worst A’s team. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 19.1% clip, while his swinging strike percentage has dropped from 13.3% to 10.4%. May spent a month on the injured list early in the season due to anxiety. While he has a 2.09 ERA in 39 appearances since returning, that hasn’t been supported by middling strikeout (19.8%) and walk (12.3%) numbers. Perhaps a rebuilding team will be willing to give him another run in the ninth inning; if he signs with a contender, he’d likely move to a lower-leverage role.

Robertson posted a 2.05 ERA while saving 14 games with seven holds in 40 contests for the Mets. He hasn’t maintained that pace since a deadline trade to the Marlins, allowing nearly six earned runs per nine. Robertson hasn’t thrown strikes consistently in South Florida, though he has continued to miss bats at a high level. The Fish pulled him from the ninth inning last month but have kept deploying him in high-leverage situations.

The veteran’s overall season line is still solid. He carries a 3.18 ERA with an above-average 27.7% strikeout rate and a tolerable 9.6% walk percentage. While his stint with the Marlins hasn’t gone as expected, he has an established career track record as one of the game’s better late-game arms.

Middle Relievers

After an up-and-down tenure with the Red Sox, Brasier was released in May and embarked on a radical turnaround upon signing with the Dodgers. In 36 2/3 frames with L.A., he’s posted a sensational 0.74 ERA with a markedly improved 26.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He won’t sustain a .182 average on balls in play, but Brasier went from yielding a sky-high 92.4 mph average exit velocity with the Red Sox to just 87.1 mph as a Dodger. He’ll have no problem finding a big league deal this winter — perhaps even a two-year pact.

A quietly strong and versatile member of the Giants’ bullpen, Brebbia has worked to a 3.30 ERA in 103 2/3 innings dating back to 2022. That includes “starting” 20 games as an opener and also picking up 24 holds. This year’s 29.9% strikeout rate is a career-high. A right lat strain wiped out more than two months of his 2023 season, but he returned earlier this month and is on track to finish out the season healthy.

A comeback liner struck Chavez in the shin back in June and wound up causing a microfracture that kept him off the field more than two months. He’s tossed 2 2/3 shutout innings since returning and has now allowed just one run in his past 21 2/3 frames. Chavez found new life in his late 30s, pitching to a 2.81 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 134 2/3 innings from 2021-23. If he wants to keep going, this year’s 1.42 ERA will garner plenty of interest — though another stint with the Braves might work best for all parties.

Cisnero was excellent for the Tigers from 2020 through early July of the current season (2.77 ERA, 38 holds, 5 saves in 149 1/3 innings). He was rocked for five runs on July 7, however, and he’s yet to rediscover his form. Cisnero wasn’t traded at the deadline and passed through waivers unclaimed in August. He has a 10.41 ERA in his past 23 1/3 innings.

Devenski has split his time between the Angels and Rays, working to a 4.81 ERA across 39 1/3 innings. He has a decent 24.6% strikeout rate and a strong 6.8% walk percentage that could secure him a big league contract on the heels of a minor league pact a year ago.

Farmer parlayed a minor league deal with the Reds in the 2021-22 offseason into a regular role in David Bell’s bullpen. He’s pitched 120 innings with a 3.98 ERA, slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout rate and higher-than-average 10.6% walk rate over the past two seasons. He’s been a durable middle reliever with a 4.15 ERA or better in five of the past six seasons — the lone exception being a 6.37 mark in 35 innings with the ’21 Tigers.

After a tough start to the season, the former AL Rookie of the Year has pitched to a 2.48 ERA over his past 36 1/3 innings — dating back to late May. Fulmer is missing bats at career-high levels (27.4% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging-strike rate) but issuing walks at the highest clip of his career as well (11.8%). Fulmer has closed and worked in setup roles since moving to the bullpen after injuries derailed his career as a starter.

Garcia averages just under 98 MPH on a bowling ball sinker, allowing him to run huge grounder rates (including a 61.6% clip this season). His strikeout rate has dropped six percentage points to a below-average 20.5% clip, however, and he’s allowing 4.17 earned runs per nine.

Maton has turned in consecutive sub-4.00 seasons while topping 60 innings for the Astros. He’s striking out an above-average 26.6% of opponents against a 9.5% walk rate. Maton does an excellent job avoiding hard contact and typically generates solid results. He could find a multi-year deal as a result, although his 89.1 MPH average fastball velocity and heavy reliance on a low-70s curveball makes him an atypical target among a market that usually values high-octane relief arms.

After signing a minor league contract a season ago, Middleton has pitched his way to a guaranteed deal this time around. He has tallied 50 innings between the White Sox and Yankees, working to a 3.08 ERA with an excellent 31.3% strikeout percentage and a massive 55.9% grounder rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 17.2% of his offerings. Middleton had posted an ERA around 5.00 in each of the three seasons preceding this one and still has spotty command. Neither Chicago nor New York plugged him directly into the late-inning mix. He’s one of the younger pitchers in the free agent class and has a rare combination of whiffs and ground-balls though.

The 40 innings Miller has thrown for the Dodgers ranks as his second-highest total since 2016. The former All-Star starter has bounced into journeyman relief mode over the last half-decade. Miller has done well in L.A., pitching to a 1.80 ERA across 40 innings. Opponents aren’t going to continue hitting under .200 on balls in play and his 12.2% walk rate is concerning. Miller has fanned upwards of 26% of batters faced after deploying a new split-finger offering this season.

Leone has appeared for three teams in 2023 and eight in his big league career overall. He continues to intrigue with a mid-90s heater and a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches, running a massive 16.1% swinging strike percentage in 50 2/3 frames this year. The whiffs haven’t translated to good results, however, as he’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine. He issues a lot of walks and has been extremely homer-prone in 2023. There might still be enough in the raw arsenal to secure a big league deal.

Pagan had bounced around the league before finding a bit of stability with the Twins. Minnesota stuck with him after a rough first season and has been rewarded with a solid ’23 campaign. Pagan has worked to a 3.12 ERA over 66 1/3 innings, including a sterling 2.10 mark in the second half. An extreme fly-ball pitcher, Pagan has struggled with home runs in his career. The longball hasn’t been an issue this season, as he’s allowing just 0.68 per nine innings. He’ll have a hard time sustaining that over multiple years, but he averages nearly 96 MPH on his fastball and consistently runs average or better strikeout and walk numbers.

Stanek is one of the hardest throwers in the sport, averaging upwards of 98 MPH on his heater. He has always had below-average control but typically misses enough bats to compensate for the walks. Stanek’s strikeout rate is down to a fine but unexceptional 23.7% this season, posting a 3.99 ERA over 49 2/3 frames in the process. The Astros have used him mostly in low-leverage situations after leaning on him as a key relief weapon when he posted a 1.15 ERA a year ago. While his stock is down relative to a season ago, he’s still a lock for a big league deal and among the higher-upside plays in the middle relief group.

The well-traveled Stratton has been part of deadline deals in two consecutive summers. He has split the 2023 campaign between the Cardinals and Rangers, turning in a cumulative 3.62 ERA while logging 82 innings of relief. Stratton is a middle innings workhorse who has fanned a solid 24.4% of opponents against a modest 7.5% walk rate. Despite a dip in his swinging strikes this season, he’ll get a major league contract.

VerHagen is wrapping up a two-year contract with the Cardinals after spending a couple seasons in Japan. While his huge ground-ball numbers in NPB didn’t translate back to the majors, he has posted a 3.97 ERA with nearly average strikeout, walk and grounder rates across 59 innings this season.

Starter/Relief Hybrids

Junis has rather quietly been a solid long relief option for the Giants. He has tallied 86 innings over 40 appearances, working to a 3.87 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 5.7% walk percentage. His fastball is averaging a career-best 94 MPH and he’s getting swinging strikes on 11.3% of his offerings. Junis started 17 games a season ago and pitched well enough that another club could consider him in either role. He has a case for a two-year deal.

Fujinami began his MLB career working out of the A’s rotation. He posted dismal results and was quickly pushed to the bullpen. Fujinami has found a little more success in relief, though he still carries a 5.16 ERA in 59 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. He has huge arm strength, averaging north of 99 MPH on his heater since being traded from Oakland to the Orioles. It’s an intriguing arsenal, but he has yet to assuage the concerns about his command that were present during his career in Japan.

Club Options

The Marlins are going to decline an $8.25MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout. The former All-Star closer pitched to a 5.48 ERA in 24 games for the Fish. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in July.

The Jays will have to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $27MM team option. If they decline, Green would have a $6.25MM player option for next season. If he declines, Toronto could circle back on a two-year, $21MM pact.

They’re working on predictably limited information, as Green didn’t make it back from last year’s Tommy John procedure until this month. His mid-90s velocity is back and he has a 13:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 innings. While Green looks much like he did with the Yankees before the surgery, it’s hard to make a definitive conclusion based on three weeks of work.

Hendriks will likely miss the entire 2024 season after requiring Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August. The White Sox will buy him out, thereby paying what would’ve been a $15MM salary in installments over the next decade instead of next year. As a free agent, Hendriks could find interest on a two-year pact from a team hoping he can recapture his elite form in 2025.

The Dodgers hold a $6.5MM option on Hudson which they’ll buy out. He has been limited to three appearances — first by rehab from last summer’s ACL tear, then by an MCL sprain in his opposite knee. Hudson could return for the Dodgers’ playoff run, though that won’t change the calculus on the option.

The Dodgers hold a $9.5MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $8.5MM gap seems large enough for L.A. to buy Kelly out, especially since he missed a month in the second half with forearm inflammation. Kelly has massive strikeout (35.4%) and ground-ball (58.8%) numbers behind a fastball that sits north of 99 MPH. The bottom line results haven’t followed, as he has posted a 4.34 ERA on the heels of a 6.08 showing for the White Sox a season ago.

Texas holds a $6.25MM option or a $750K buyout on Leclerc. He’s an erratic but overall effective arm in the late innings. Through 53 2/3 frames, he owns a 2.85 ERA while fanning just under 28% of opposing hitters. The price point is modest enough the Rangers seem likely to bring Leclerc back, though his inconsistent control suggests he’s probably better served for a middle innings role if Texas deepens their relief group this winter.

The Padres have to decide whether to trigger a two-year, $32MM option at season’s end. If they decline, Martinez has a two-year, $16MM player option. With San Diego using him largely in a medium-leverage relief role, they seem unlikely to lock in a $16MM annual salary for two seasons. Yet Martinez has been effective enough he could try to top the $8MM salaries and/or secure a rotation spot in free agency.

Martinez has logged 105 1/3 innings through 62 appearances (eight starts). He’s allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine with average strikeout and walk marks and a lofty 54.1% ground-ball percentage.

The Braves hold a $6MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $5MM difference is probably beyond what they’ll want to pay, as the veteran hurler has had a middling season. He owns a 4.30 ERA across 58 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate — which sat at 27.6% during his first year in Atlanta — is down to 17.5%. McHugh has been out since early September with shoulder inflammation; he’s on a rehab stint and could return for the playoffs if the Braves want to carry him on the postseason roster.

The Dodgers signed Reyes to a free agent deal in hopes he’d return to form after a 2022 season wrecked by shoulder injuries. Unfortunately, he had a setback and underwent another season-ending surgery in June without making an appearance. The Dodgers will decline a $3MM option.

The Dodgers have a club option valued anywhere between $1-7MM. He has been out the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery last November. It’s tough to project the Dodgers’ decision until the option price is finalized.

Atlanta holds a $5.75MM option that comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a $4.5MM decision. Yates has returned after a couple seasons lost to injury to log 58 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball while striking out over 32% of opponents. His velocity is back at pre-surgery levels but his command is not, as he’s walking nearly 15% of batters faced. The price point could be modest enough for the Braves to retain Yates in hopes he dials in the strike-throwing as he gets further removed from surgery.

Player Options

Neris threw 110 innings over the first two seasons of his free agent contract with the Astros, converting an $8.5MM club option into a player provision in the process (assuming he passes an end-of-year physical). Even at 35, he could decline that in search of another two-year guarantee. Neris has worked to a 1.81 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this season, working mostly in high-leverage spots. He’s picking up swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings for a second consecutive year despite losing a tick off his average fastball speed.

Ottavino has a $6.75MM option on his contract with the Mets. The veteran righty suggested to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com last month he was likely to exercise that provision. He has a 2.82 ERA over 59 2/3 innings, although his strikeout rate has dropped more than six percentage points relative to last season.

Low-Cost Veterans and Minor League Depth (listed alphabetically)

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher, lefty relief.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Royals-centric chat tomorrow morning at 9am CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Royals haven’t had a winning record since their storybook World Series victory back in 2015. Their first season in the wake of Dayton Moore’s firing as president of baseball operations yielded more of the same dismal results. They’ve now lost 100-plus games in three of the past six seasons, and it’ll be incumbent upon J.J. Picollo to turn things around in his second year atop the baseball operations hierarchy.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C/DH: $44MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $8.5MM through 2024
  • Jake Brentz, LHP: $1.05MM through 2024 (Brentz will remain arb-eligible through 2026)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

While last offseason brought about sweeping change with the firing of Moore and hiring of manager Matt Quatraro, the 2023-24 offseason should be quieter in terms of such big-picture machinations. Picollo won’t be supplanted one year into his tenure, and the Royals aren’t going to move on from Quatraro after one tough season. It’s possible that Picollo will continue to make changes further down the baseball operations ladder, however. One such move is already in place, as The Athletic’s Keith Law recently reported that Kansas City is hiring former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges. Holding that position from 2015-18, Bridges oversaw high-profile selections of talents like Austin Riley, A.J. Minter and Michael Soroka, in addition to some late-round bullpen finds like Evan Phillips and Jacob Webb.

Improvements in the scouting and draft process are a long-term play, of course. In terms of more immediately righting the ship in Kansas City, there’s no shortage of work to do. Royals starting pitchers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA (5.16) and fifth-fewest innings (760 1/3). That ERA is practically an identical match with a 5.15 team bullpen ERA that ranks 28th in MLB.

At the plate, the Royals are 24th in the Majors with 651 runs scored. Their collective 6.9% walk rate is second-worst among all MLB teams, and Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of batting average (.243, 21st in MLB), on-base percentage (.302, 27th), slugging percentage (.396, 23rd) and home runs (156, 26th).

Complicating this year’s dismal across-the-board performance is the fact that the Royals were relying heavily on young players they hope (or hoped) can bring the team back to relevance in the near future. Many of those players largely failed the test.

Bobby Witt Jr. has proven himself to be a cornerstone player at shortstop, belting 29 homers and swiping 48 bases while playing premium defense. Third baseman Maikel Garcia hasn’t hit for power — nor was he projected to — but has swiped 23 bags and played good defense at the hot corner. He’s put the ball in play enough to help overcome a below-average walk rate and looks like he can have a long-term role in the infield, be it as a regular or as someone who eventually shifts to a heavily used utility player between third base, shortstop and second base. Assuming Vinnie Pasquantino’s recovery from surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder goes according to plan, he’ll be back at first base after hitting .272/.355/.444 in his first 133 MLB games.

With regard to the infielders, that’s about the extent of the development. Pasquantino’s injury opened more time for fellow first baseman Nick Pratto, but he’s yet to carry his huge 2021-22 minor league production over to the big leagues. Michael Massey has popped 14 homers, but his .225/.270/.375 slash is nowhere near strong enough to seize the second base job. Infield/outfield hybrids like Nate Eaton and Samad Taylor did not produce in small samples.

The Royals could well keep things in house here, as it’s a dismal market for second base options. Old friend Whit Merrifield presents the best potential option in free agency, but he’ll likely garner interest from contending clubs (assuming either he or the Jays decline half of his 2024 mutual option). The rest of the market is comprised of rebound candidates (e.g. Amed Rosario, Kolten Wong) or utility players (e.g. Enrique Hernandez, Donovan Solano). The trade market presents alternatives, but Kansas City may not have the pitching coveted by teams with infield talent to market such as the Cardinals (Nolan Gorman) or Reds (Jonathan India).

We’ll get to that lack of pitching in a bit, but the rest of the lineup also bears mentioning. The Royals don’t have a single outfielder who they can count on as a well-rounded performer heading into the 2024 season. Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel have yet to hit big league pitching. Edward Olivares has provided roughly average offense at the plate but is not a strong defender. Catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez worked almost exclusively in the latter of those two roles this year, and while he’s having a big second half at the dish, he grades out as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the sport. Deadline pickup Nelson Velazquez has erupted with 14 homers in 131 plate appearances and surely locked in a job in the process — but even he grades as a sub-par defender.

The Royals should add at least one outfielder this offseason — if not two. As with second base, it’s a thin market. Kansas City isn’t going to play at the top of the market for Cody Bellinger and Teoscar Hernandez, so unless the plan is to offer rebound opportunities to a Hunter Renfroe or Joey Gallo, this could be another area to focus on in the trade market. Their 2022 acquisition of Waters has yet to pan out. Their deadline pickup of Velazquez has been outstanding so far. Targeting similar young outfielders lacking in clear paths to playing time with their current organizations could prove shrewd.

Even behind the plate, the outlook isn’t as strong as it once was. While Salvador Perez still carries plenty of name recognition, this year’s .252/.291/.419 batting line is nowhere near the .273/.311/.526 output he turned in from 2020-22. And Perez may be a five-time Gold Glove winner, but he hasn’t taken that award home since 2018 — in large part because his defense continues to wane. He’s thwarted just 14% of stolen base attempts against him this winter (league average is 21%), and Statcast pegs him below-average in terms of both blocking pitches in the dirt and framing pitches.

It’d frankly be surprising if Perez’s name didn’t pop up in a trade rumor or two this winter — he almost always does — but such talk is generally brought about by media speculation rather than earnest chances of him being moved. There’s never been any strong chance that Perez will actually be traded. The Royals love him — they named him just the fourth captain in team history — and Perez has 10-and-5 rights that grant him full veto power on any deal. Further, given the $44MM remaining on his contract and aforementioned decline on both sides of the ball, Perez simply doesn’t have the trade value many would assume based on his track record and name.

There’s also no clear immediate heir apparent to Perez, and thus no great urgency to move him. The use of Melendez almost exclusively in the outfield this year suggests the Royals don’t believe he’s a viable full-time option there. Twenty-eight-year-old Freddy Fermin could be an option to begin cutting into Perez’s workload after a nice rookie showing, but a broken finger ended his season. Pursuing some veteran catching depth, even if just on a minor league deal, seems wise.

The previously mentioned lack of pitching is the most glaring problem for Kansas City, particularly considering the heavy investment in college arms that the Royals hoped would fill out their pitching staff in the long run. Their ballyhooed 2018-20 selections of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy and Alec Marsh has yet to produce a clearly above-average starter. Singer has certainly looked the part at times, most notably in 2022, and he drew interest from the Reds (among others) at this year’s trade deadline despite some first-half struggles. His performance has only gotten shakier (6.87 ERA in his past seven starts), and at this point any trade of Singer would be selling low.

The composition of next year’s rotation is at least in part dependent on Zack Greinke’s plans. After signing a pair of one-year deals to return to his original organization, it seems like Greinke prefers to play out his final days in Kansas City. If he wants to come back for his age-40 season next year — which would allow him to take a run at multiple milestones, including 3,000 career strikeouts — the Royals might well give him the chance to do so. If not, they’ll be looking to replace roughly 200 innings between Greinke and Brad Keller, who is a free agent and is facing a cloudy outlook due to thoracic outlet symptoms.

While none of Singer, Lynch, Kowar or Bubic has developed as hoped, all are still in the organization. Singer and Lynch are the likeliest to have rotation jobs waiting. Kowar has already moved to the bullpen (and continued to struggle). Bubic is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Marsh has also debuted this year, pitching 70 innings in his MLB debut but recording a 5.66 ERA.

Despite the stalled nature of those college arms, the Royals aren’t without some hope in terms of success for their pitching development. Trade acquisition Cole Ragans, who came over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman deal, has gone from a squeezed-out former first rounder in Texas to a focal point in the Kansas City rotation in no time at all.

Ragans had been relegated to bullpen work with Texas, but the Royals plugged him right into the rotation and have reaped immense benefits. After some slight tweaks to his repertoire, Ragans has pitched 65 1/3 innings of 2.34 ERA ball with a huge 31.3% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. He’s faced a generally weak slate of opponents, but even if you expect some regression, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the turnaround.

Ragans, who’ll turn 26 this winter and is controllable for another five years, has punched his ticket to the 2024 rotation. Singer and Lynch figure to be back in there as well. Last offseason’s surprising two-year investment in Jordan Lyles should assure him a spot despite poor 2023 results (6.24 ERA in 30 starts).

The Royals need to add some arms, but they also need to focus on more than bulk innings. Last winter’s signings of Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough didn’t meaningfully raise the team’s ceiling. Kansas City still has Lyles’ bulk innings in the bank, so to speak, and Ragans gives them one potentially strong performer. The goal this time around should be to add some upside, and unlike the position-player market, free agency has several such candidates this offseason.

No one should expect the Royals to outbid the field for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto — although their need for prime-aged pitching and largely blank payroll outlook arguably makes them an ideal team to take such a risk — but there are several interesting injury reclamation projects. Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Tyler Mahle could all fit the bill, although Mahle will miss the first half of the season following Tommy John surgery. Jack Flaherty has had a down year overall but will pitch next season at just 28. Notably, the Royals had trade interest in Montas back in the 2021-22 offseason.

A similar gamble on the bullpen side of things would make sense. The Royals have gotten a quietly interesting run from righty James McArthur in recent weeks, as the righty has reeled off 13 1/3 shutout innings with three hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts since moving to the ’pen. Carlos Hernandez, armed with a triple-digit heater, was quite good through the end of July before hitting a rough patch down the stretch. Lefty Austin Cox has pitched decently in a bullpen role.

By and large, however, the Royals are lacking in established, dependable relievers. With Chapman and Scott Barlow both traded, they can offer a ninth-inning role to any free agent reliever they want to try to steer to Kauffman Stadium. They could give a longtime setup man like Reynaldo Lopez or Joe Jimenez a full-time closing gig. They could also roll the dice on any number of high-end injury reclamations (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly) or perhaps just a former closer who’s had some struggles down the stretch in ’23 (e.g. old friend Will Smith). Any additions along those lines would give the Royals a chance at doubling down on their wildly successful signing of Chapman from last offseason.

Whichever specific targets Kansas City pursues, the resources should be there for Picollo and his staff. The Royals still owe since-released corner man Hunter Dozier $10MM, but there are only three other contracts on the books (Perez, Lyles, Jake Brentz). In all they have just $39.55MM in guaranteed money to be paid out. Arbitration raises will push that number forward, but any of Taylor Hearn, Taylor Clarke, Josh Taylor or Josh Staumont could conceivably be non-tendered. Other arb-eligible players like Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Hernandez aren’t going to break the bank. Their current contracts combined with arb raises should still total under $50MM.

That leaves at least a $40MM gap between the current group and this past season’s Opening Day payroll of about $91-92MM — perhaps a bit more, depending on trade scenarios and non-tenders. The Royals aren’t going to play at the very top of the market, and it bears emphasizing that free agency is a two-way street; they’re going to have a hard time selling Kansas City as a preferred destination to even second- or third-tier free agents who have any kind of demand. It might mean overpaying (as they did with Lyles) or delving even deeper into the free agent waters.

As is to be expected with any 100-loss team, the areas in need of improvement outweigh those where the team appears set. The Royals have some money to splash around in free agency a bit, but don’t expect any marquee additions. Upside plays for pitchers — where their spacious park is surely a bonus — and perhaps some additional trades to acquire controllable names in need of a change of scenery figure to follow. The Royals have more work to do than a team should after enduring eight straight losing or .500 seasons, and it’s going to take multiple years to get them back on track.

Poll: Aaron Boone’s Future

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Aaron Boone’s future with the Yankees has been a talking point among Yankees fans throughout the season. He’s wrapping up his sixth season as the team’s manager and is signed through the 2024 campaign — with a club option for the 2025 season. The Yanks have had plenty of regular-season success under Boone, including a pair of 100-win seasons (100 and 103) in 2018-19 and a 99-win campaign just last year.

However, the 2023 season will be the first under Boone in which the Yankees don’t reach the postseason. They’ve gone to the ALCS twice under his leadership but haven’t advanced to the World Series.

A string of five consecutive postseason appearances followed by one miss generally wouldn’t be viewed as grounds for a potential managerial change in most markets, but the Yankees perennially operate on one of the sport’s largest payrolls and have higher expectations than just about any club in the sport. Add in the possibility that this could be the team’s first sub-.500 season way back in 1992 — a stunning statistic in and of itself — and the calls for a managerial change among the fan base only become louder.

If a change is made, it seems likely it’ll be the result of a decision directly from ownership. SNY’s Andy Martino reported late last month that the only way Boone would be ousted would be if managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner overruled general manager Brian Cashman on a managerial decision — which he has not done before. Boone told Yankees beat writers within the past hour that he has not yet been definitively told whether he’ll return for the 2024 season or not (link via The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner). Any such decision seems unlikely to come prior to the end of the regular season, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this weekend that the club now expects to retain Boone.

On the one hand, it’d be unfair to lay the blame squarely at Boone’s feet, as is the case with any manager and a team that underperforms expectations. Boone has been hamstrung by significant injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Lou Trivino, among others, on the pitching side of things. Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge spent nearly two months on the injured list this summer, while first baseman Anthony Rizzo’s season will finish at 99 games due to concussion issues and Jose Trevino’s season will end at just 55 games due to wrist surgery. The club also entered the season with several question marks around the roster, most notably in left field, where they’ve cycled through a carousel of journeyman options including Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun and Billy McKinney.

On the other, those injury troubles and some roster shortcomings don’t entirely absolve Boone of any and all blame, of course. All managers deal with injuries to star players, and every club has its share of roster imperfections to navigate. Boone is still the one filling out the lineup card and pulling the strings with regard to bullpen and bench decisions. The composition of the team’s coaching staff, any sloppy play or questionable effort, and any other number of tougher-to-quantify shortcomings tend to fall at a manager’s feet as well.

The Yankees have only had three managers in the past 28 years. Joe Torre helmed the club from 1996 through 2007, capturing four World Series titles and another pair of AL pennants along the way. Torre gave way to Joe Girardi, who skippered the club from 2008-17. Girardi won a World Series title himself in 2009.

Boone made the playoffs in each of his first five seasons on the job but will fall short in 2023. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily grounds for an immediate dismissal in the Bronx; Girardi’s Yankees missed the playoffs entirely in three of his final five seasons. Boone hasn’t advanced to a World Series in any of his six seasons in the manager’s chair, though his predecessor also missed the World Series in his final eight seasons on the job.

At the same time, that increasingly lengthy layoff from appearing in a Fall Classic surely leads to mounting frustration both among fans and the team’s ownership. The lowest payroll the Yankees have had relative to the rest of the league since their last World Series appearance came in 2018, when they opened the season with the sixth-largest mark in baseball. They’ve ranked higher than that every year since 2009 — including seven seasons with the game’s second-largest payroll and four with the largest. That level of investment inherently comes with lofty expectations, and they’re now up to 14 seasons without a World Series appearance — let alone a title.

Time will tell whether Boone returns for a seventh season at the helm. If he does, with no additional guaranteed years on his contract beyond the ’24 season, his job status will be a hot-button issue for the Yankees throughout the upcoming season (even more so than it is now).

It’s generally clear where the majority of Yankees fans land on this issue, but let’s open it up for MLBTR readers to weigh in, asking both if the Yankees should move on and whether they actually will (which, of course, are two very different questions):

 

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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As has been the case for a few seasons, the Rockies underperformed internal expectations. While owner Dick Monfort said before Opening Day he felt the team could hover around .500, they’re instead headed for the first 100-loss season in franchise history. It can’t be fixed in one offseason, though Colorado will at least need to patch together a more competitive pitching staff if they’re to improve on this year’s NL-worst showing.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Owe Cardinals $5MM annually through 2025 as part of the Nolan Arenado trade
  • Owe $500K buyout to released RHP José Ureña

Option Decisions

  • None

Total 2024 commitments: $98.3MM
Total future commitments: $321.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Castro, Lambert, Blach

Free Agents

The Rockies have missed the playoffs in five consecutive seasons. They’re on their way to a bottom-three record in the majors, which will tie them with Oakland and Kansas City for the highest odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. Colorado hasn’t chosen to rebuild in the same way as some of the other worst teams in the majors, but they’ve had rebuilding results.

On any team that loses 100 games, there are a lot of weak points on the roster. None is quite as stark as the rotation. Colorado has had seven starters log 50+ innings this season. Only Peter Lambert (4.50 ERA) has allowed fewer than five earned runs per nine in that time, and he has struggled as a reliever. Even in the context of Coors Field, that’s untenable.

Kyle Freeland is assured of a spot in next year’s rotation. It’s hard to lock in anyone else. Austin Gomber logged 27 starts and 139 innings but posted a 5.50 ERA with a well below-average 14.4% strikeout rate. Antonio Senzatela underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-July and could miss the entire 2024 season.

Germán Márquez also underwent TJS midway through the ’23 campaign. Colorado and Márquez agreed to a two-year, $20MM extension last month that’ll keep him from hitting free agency. That’s a sensible move for the team — if Márquez recaptures his pre-surgery form, he’d be a strong bargain on a $10MM salary in 2025 — but it won’t help the rotation until at least late into next season.

Colorado has relied on a host of depth call-ups and journeymen to plug the back end of the staff with predictable results. Chris Flexen (6.46 ERA) and Chase Anderson (6.13) will be free agents. The Rox could bring either player back at little financial cost, though neither should be guaranteed a spot in the season-opening starting five. Noah Davis, Connor Seabold, Ryan Feltner and Lambert are under club control but better suited for depth roles. Former first-round pick Ryan Rolison has yet to make his MLB debut because of persistent shoulder injuries.

The Rox will need to turn to various avenues of acquisition to add competition. They’re unlikely to play at the top of the free agent market but could target the third or fourth tier — names like Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley or Martín Pérez. Pitching at Coors Field would be a tough sell for a pitcher trying to rebuild his value, but they could try to dangle a guaranteed rotation spot and a decent one-year salary for a rebound flier like Jake Odorizzi or Noah Syndergaard.

It’s a similar story on the trade market. Colorado is in no position to deal controllable talent for shorter-term MLB help. They could still roll the dice on a depth option or two who are squeezed out of another organization, as they did in sending cash to the Red Sox for Seabold last winter.

The bullpen isn’t good, though it’s in comparatively better shape than the rotation. Grounder specialist Jake Bird and hard-throwing righty Justin Lawrence have had impressive 2023 campaigns. Former closer Daniel Bard, whose ’23 season has been derailed by anxiety issues that contributed to significant strike-throwing woes, will probably get a middle innings spot since he’s under contract for $9.5MM.

They’ll count on a full season from Tyler Kinley, who has been limited to 15 appearances after rehabbing from last year’s elbow surgery. While Kinley’s ’23 results are middling, he had a 0.75 ERA in 25 outings before the injury a season ago. He clearly won’t maintain that pace over a full season, but the Rockies can expect better numbers than he has managed in his limited work this year after a healthy offseason.

That group skews heavily toward the right side. Brent Suter, the only southpaw in the late-season bullpen, is an impending free agent. Suter has acclimated well to Coors Field after being claimed off waivers last November, turning in a 3.51 ERA across 66 2/3 frames. General manager Bill Schmidt said before the trade deadline the team could try to keep Suter around for another season or two on an extension. If Suter signs elsewhere, they’ll likely bring in a similar low-cost southpaw via free agency.

Schmidt has also expressed interest in a new deal with Colorado’s top impending free agent: Charlie Blackmon. The 37-year-old indicated last month he was interested in returning for a 14th big league season. The career-long Rockie suggested his preference was to stick in Colorado despite leaving open the possibility of playing elsewhere if the Rox didn’t reciprocate that interest.

Blackmon is no longer an everyday outfielder. He’s still a solid role player who contributes in a right field/designated hitter capacity. The left-handed hitter owns a .276/.367/.432 line across 387 trips to the plate. While his power numbers are down, he’s very tough to strike out and has walked at a career-high 10.1% clip. If Blackmon is willing to accept a pay cut from $15MM to around $5-7MM, the Rockies could try to keep him around.

Colorado already has a few corner outfield/DH hybrids on the roster. Rookie Nolan Jones has arguably been the team’s best performer this season. Acquired from the Guardians for middle infield prospect Juan Brito last November, the lefty-swinging Jones has 17 homers with a .286/.382/.531 slash through 393 trips to the plate. He’s unlikely to continue hitting over .280 unless he cuts his strikeouts from the current 29.8% rate. Still, Jones has demonstrated that his power and plate discipline can play against big league pitching. He’ll be an everyday player, likely in left field.

That’s where Kris Bryant began the season. Colorado’s $182MM signee again suffered through an injury-plagued year, getting into 77 games to date. He has mostly played first base since returning from a broken finger a couple weeks ago. There’s no question Bryant will get a chance to play regularly at the start of next season. Whether that’s at first base or in right field could be determined by whether they retain Blackmon.

Colorado could look for a short-term upgrade in center field. Brenton Doyle has played stellar defense but hasn’t hit at all as a rookie. The 25-year-old has a .198/.249/.322 line while striking out almost 35% of the time in his first 119 contests. Most of the free agents at the position are glove-first veterans, which could be redundant given Doyle’s skillset. Someone like Adam Duvall or Joey Gallo would offer more offensive upside than Doyle and could kick over to right field when the club wants a defense-heavy alignment.

The infield is more set in stone, at least aside from first base. Brendan Rodgers should get another chance at second base after his ’23 campaign was derailed by a Spring Training shoulder dislocation. Ryan McMahon is locked in at third base, where he’s an elite defender. McMahon pairs that with decent offense and is arguably the Rockies’ best overall player.

Ezequiel Tovar will be back at shortstop after a mixed rookie season. He’s one of the most aggressive hitters in the majors, with his swing-heavy approach keeping him to a meager .293 on-base percentage. Yet Tovar has rated as an excellent defensive shortstop and has connected on 15 home runs. He just turned 22 and is surely still seen as a key piece of the future. Aside from perhaps upgrading on Harold Castro as the utility option, the bulk of the infield is established.

First base could be the exception, depending upon the club’s plans with Bryant. Neither Elehuris Montero nor Michael Toglia took hold of the job. If they wanted to add to the mix, they could turn to a rebound free agent (e.g. Ji Man Choi or Garrett Cooper) or look into a non-tender candidate like Rowdy Tellez.

All-Star Game MVP Elias Díaz has held the primary catching job. While his production has dropped off since the Midsummer Classic, the Rox probably have bigger concerns elsewhere. Díaz is due a $6MM salary in the final year of his contract next season. With a thin free agent class at the position, the Rockies could field some trade interest, though it’d probably be modest enough they won’t be motivated to make a move.

Players like McMahon and Rodgers have more appeal. There’s no indication the Rockies want to entertain moving either. McMahon is a key contributor who is signed for four more seasons. Rodgers has had a rough 2023 due primarily to those previously mentioned shoulder troubles, and to move him now would be selling low. With two seasons of remaining arbitration control, Colorado should probably hold him in hopes of a rebound year.

Colorado was a little more willing than they had been previously to deal off short-term assets at the trade deadline, moving impending free agents Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand. They’ve remained steadfastly opposed to a broader teardown. Their resolute belief the organization doesn’t need a major overhaul has extended to the manager chair. Colorado signed Bud Black to an extension in February; he’s under contract through 2024, which would be his eighth season at the helm.

The major league roster doesn’t offer much reason for optimism. No matter what they do this winter, they’re going to enter 2024 as the likely last-place team in the NL West. Hope for the longer-term outlook is rooted in a farm system that has improved in two-plus years under Schmidt.

Colorado has three prospects who appeared among Baseball America’s recent Top 50 minor league talents. Middle infielder Adael Amador and corner outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez have each reached Double-A at age 20. Ninth overall pick Chase Dollander is the highest-upside arm to enter the farm system in some time. They’ll secure another high draft choice next summer.

None of that group is likely to make much of an impact in 2024 and Colorado’s farm system is still middle-of-the-pack unit overall. Yet it’s at least possible to envision a competitive group of position players emerging within the next few seasons, particularly if Tovar takes a step forward in his second big league campaign. On the other hand, the long-term pitching outlook is still very questionable.

Colorado’s payroll picture isn’t quite as bleak as it was six months ago. The bulk of the money in the Nolan Arenado trade has finally been paid out, with Colorado’s remaining commitments consisting of $5MM annually over the next two seasons. Blackmon’s salary would drop if he returns; C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk are off the books.

The organization looks a little better off than it did at this time last winter. It’s a slow process, though, one that looks likely to lead to a modest offseason and another poor record in 2024.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Rockies-centric chat on 9-25-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Lefty Relievers

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We’ve been covering the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. After covering the starters yesterday, we’re on to the relief group. We’ll begin with the southpaws.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

Long one of the game’s most dominant relievers, Hader now finds himself on the precipice of free agency, where he’ll be among the most sought-after talents on the market this winter. He’s no longer the premier strikeout arm in baseball but still sports the fifth-best strikeout rate of any qualified reliever in 2023 at 36.7%. The dip from his days of fanning around 45% of his opponents hasn’t made him any less effective, however. Hader boasts a sensational 1.21 ERA and has allowed all of three earned runs since Memorial Day.

There was some hand-wringing about the lefty’s struggles in the run-up to the 2022 trade deadline and about his early performance following a trade to the Padres. Hader quieted those concerns with a dominant showing both in September and in the postseason. Since being blown up for six runs on Aug. 28, 2022, Hader’s numbers look like this (postseason included): 68 2/3 innings, 1.05 ERA, 37.3% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, two home runs allowed (0.26 HR/9).

Hader has been a veritable bullpen cheat code this season and for much of his career. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he’ll reach free agency with his sights set on topping Edwin Diaz’s $102MM guarantee — the largest ever for any reliever — and should have a legitimate chance to do so.

High-Leverage Relievers

It’s been a resurgent year for Chapman both in terms of velocity and overall results. His heater’s 99.1 mph average is at its highest point since the 2017 season, and Chapman has unsurprisingly seen notable improvement in his strikeout rate (42.9%) and swinging-strike rate (17.6%). Among 439 relievers who’ve pitched at least 10 innings this year, Chapman trails only Baltimore’s Felix Bautista in terms of strikeout rate.

Overall, the former Reds, Yankees and Cubs closer has pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. Chapman’s command is always going to be shaky, and this year has been no exception; he’s allowed a free pass to 14.2% of his opponents. His sky-high strikeout rate has offset that, however, as he’s found success working primarily in a setup role between Kansas City and Texas. Chapman signed a one-year, make-good deal with the Royals this past offseason that guaranteed him $3.75MM. He’ll be in line for a considerably heavier payday this time around — quite possibly on a multi-year deal. He should have closing opportunities available to him.

It’s been quite the career arc for Moore. A top prospect and burgeoning star with the Rays early in his career, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, returned looking more like a fourth starter and, after being traded two different times, eventually settled into journeyman status. Moore had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers in 2022, but he’s found new life as a bona fide late-inning reliever over the past two seasons.

Moore’s 2022 breakout in Texas (1.95 ERA in 74 innings) led to a one-year, $7.55MM deal with the Angels in 2023, and he’s continued to demonstrate his efficacy in leverage situations. In 48 2/3 frames between the Angels and Guardians, the southpaw has a 2.77 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He’s picked up 21 holds as well.

Claimed off waivers by the Marlins this week, he’ll spend the final week-plus of the season in Miami and hope to help push them to a postseason spot, even though he won’t be eligible for the playoff roster. Dating back to 2022, Moore has a 2.27 ERA and 35 holds in 122 2/3 innings with a well above-average strikeout rate. He’s shown that his 2022 season wasn’t a fluke, and there ought to be multi-year offers waiting for him in free agency.

Acquired in an April 2021 trade that sent 2019 cult hero Mike Tauchman to the Giants, Peralta wound up providing the Yankees with two and a half seasons of quality bullpen innings. In 153 innings with the Yankees dating back to that ’21 trade, Peralta has turned in a sharp 2.83 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He’s overwhelmed left-handed opponents, held his own against righties, and kept the ball on the ground at a roughly 55% clip — all while sporting a heater that averages better than 95 mph.

Peralta isn’t a household name, but he’s been a quietly solid big league reliever dating back to his 2020 season with the Giants — evidenced by a 3.01 ERA over 188 2/3 innings in that time. He could find a two-year deal in free agency this winter.

After an up-and-down tenure in Atlanta over the course of his prior three-year deal, Smith lingered on the free agent market into March this past offseason. He’d turned things around following a trade to the Astros but still seemed to be met with skepticism, as he commanded a modest one-year, $2MM deal in free agency.

Through late August, the deal looked to be a bargain. Smith pitched to a 2.96 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates, but he’s hit a rocky stretch in the 2023 campaign’s final two months. Over his past 18 1/3 innings, Smith has been charged with 17 earned runs on 22 hits (three homers) and eight walks with 15 strikeouts. It’s ballooned his ERA from 2.96 all the way to 4.55. The veteran lefty’s 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and 35.4% chase rate are all strong marks, but this recent rough patch could result in him settling for another one-year deal in his return to the market this winter.

Middle Relievers

A ground-ball machine with good command who doesn’t miss many bats, Alexander has tossed 48 1/3 innings of 4.66 ERA ball for the Giants this year. San Francisco has used him as an opener on eight occasions as well. From 2016-22, Alexander notched 216 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA and mammoth 70.1% ground-ball rate. This year’s results aren’t great, but he should get a big league deal this winter.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the veteran Diekman struggled through rough showings with the White Sox in both 2022 and early 2023 before bouncing back upon signing with the Rays. In 42 1/3 innings, the Diekman has pitched to a 2.34 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate. Command has been a problem for Diekman throughout his career, but he still throws hard and still misses bats at a high level. Tampa Bay hasn’t used him in high-leverage spots, but he’s had success more often than not there and should be in line for another big league deal this winter.

A waiver claim out of the Brewers organization early in the 2022-23 offseason, Suter hasn’t been fazed by pitching at altitude. In 64 2/3 innings with the Rox, he’s pitched to a 3.48 ERA — a near mirror image of the career 3.51 mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. Suter’s 18% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 8.8% walk rate is a career-high. However, the soft-tossing lefty has long been one of the game’s best at avoiding hard contact, and that’s true again in 2023: 83.6 mph average exit velocity, 3% barrel rate, 25.9% hard-hit rate. Opponents just don’t square the ball up against Suter, and he’s made a fine career out of that knack for weak contact.

Club Options

Chafin posted big strikeout numbers with the D-backs but has struggled since being traded to the Brewers, for whom he has a 7.82 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. The veteran southpaw was sporting a 3.06 ERA and matching FIP at the All-Star break — a number that falls right in line with the collective 3.05 ERA he posted in 289 innings from 2017-22. The recent rough patch stems from a small-sample spike in homers (three) and walks (eight) in his short time with Milwaukee. The poor results seem like they’ll lead to the Brewers opting for a $725K buyout rather than Chafin’s $7.25MM option price, but he should get a big league deal again in free agency this winter.

Garcia didn’t wind up pitching at all with the Pirates after signing a one-year deal, as a biceps injury incurred in spring training ended up shelving him for the season. The Bucs will surely buy out his $3.25MM option.

Hand’s $7MM club option actually converted to a mutual option when he was traded from the Rockies to the Braves, but that’s a moot point. The former All-Star has limped to a 6.00 ERA with Atlanta, and the team will likely pay a $500K buyout.

Loup pitched decently in 2022 — the first season of a two-year, $17MM free agent contract. He’s been roughed up to tune of a 6.10 ERA in 2023, however. A bloated .373 average on balls in play has surely played a role in that, but his strikeout, walk and grounder rates have all also continued to trend in the wrong direction since his career year with the Mets in 2021 (0.95 ERA in 56 2/3  innings). The Halos figure to pay the $2MM buyout on his $7.5MM option.

Raley parlayed a successful three-year KBO run into a big league return in 2020, and he’s since solidified himself as a quality reliever. He’s sporting a 2.94 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate this season, albeit against a questionable 10.3% walk rate. Given Raley’s 2.81 ERA, nine saves and 46 holds in his past 105 2/3 innings, his $6.5MM club option seems like a good value. That’s especially true given that it comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a net $5.25MM call. Even if the Mets don’t want to pay that price plus the associated luxury tax fees, he should have trade value.

Injuries have limited Rodriguez to only 11 innings this year, during which time he has a 6.55 ERA. The Red Sox shut him down from throwing due to a hip injury back in August. They’re a virtual lock to pay the $500K buyout rather than pick up Rodriguez’s $4.25MM option.

Wilson signed a big league deal last winter while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Brewers were likely intrigued by the new slider he’d unveiled with the Reds in a tiny sample of 3 2/3 innings during the 2022 season. Wilson whiffed seven of his 13 opponents with a mammoth 18.5% swinging-strike rate before hitting the injured list and requiring surgery. Wilson completed a 14-month rehab only to suffer a lat strain while warming up in the bullpen for his return to a big league mound. That injury ended his season, and it’s likely the Brewers will decline his $2.5MM option in favor of a $150K buyout.

Veteran Depth and Bounceback Hopefuls

All of these 30-something hurlers have had big league experience in the past. Abad was a quality middle reliever from 2013-17 but has just 37 big league innings since (6 1/3 coming with the Rockies this year). The soft-tossing Bleier was rocked in Boston this year but had a 3.09 ERA with the O’s and Marlins from 2020-22. Garrett has a history of missing bats for the Reds, but his longstanding command issues worsened with the Royals over the past two seasons. McFarland is a ground-ball specialist with good command but one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. Norris has missed bats in the past but also been quite homer-prone. Pomeranz was one of the game’s best lefty relievers but hasn’t pitched since 2021 due to injury. Shreve’s career 3.97 ERA is solid, but he’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis recently.

This group figures to draw plenty of interest in minor league free agency over the winter but might have a hard time finding a guaranteed deal due to recent struggles and/or health woes.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher.

All stats through play Thursday.

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