MLBTR Originals

MLBTR’s position by position preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relievers. While there’s no one at the top of this group who’ll rival Josh Hader among the southpaws, there are a number of impressive middle to late inning arms who’ll hit the market.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

High-Leverage/Potential Setup Arms

• Jordan Hicks (27)

Hicks is both the youngest and hardest-throwing name on this year’s bullpen market. The Cardinals couldn’t seem to make up their mind whether they wanted him to be a starter or reliever, but he’s having his best year to date in the latter of those two roles. In 63 2/3 innings between the Cards and Blue Jays, Hicks has logged a 3.11 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate and massive 58.5% ground-ball rate. His strikeouts are down to a roughly average 23.5% since being traded, but his 7.1% walk rate since the trade would also be a career-best.

Hicks’ typical 100 mph sinker has dropped to an average of, ahem, “only” 99.3 mph with the Jays after sitting at 100.7 mph in St. Louis prior to the swap. It’s still absolutely overpowering velocity, and the dip in heat feels like a worthwhile trade-off if he can keep his command at this level, especially since his ground-ball rate remains unchanged. Hicks only just turned 27 this month, so even a three-year deal would conclude just weeks after he turns 30.

He’s already had Tommy John surgery, so there’s some injury risk, but his unrivaled youth and power arsenal will serve him well. Hicks will be among the top three to four options on the market this year.

• Joe Jimenez (29)

While Jimenez isn’t as young as Hicks, he’s still atypical for a free agent reliever. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at a three-year pact coming off consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. Jimenez has turned in 54 2/3 innings of 3.13 ERA ball in his first season as a Brave after an offseason trade from the Tigers.

With a fastball that lands in the 95-96 MPH range, Jimenez has consistently missed bats. He has fanned more than 30% of opponents in consecutive years and racked up swinging strikes on 15.4% of his pitches. Since an uncharacteristic spike in walks in 2021, he has limited free passes to around a 6% clip in each of the last two seasons.

The only moderate area of concern lies in Jimenez’s batted ball profile. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which makes him susceptible to home runs. He’s allowing homers at a higher than average 1.48 HR/9 clip on the year and has allowed 1.35 homers per nine for his career. This year’s league average for relievers is 1.10 HR/9.

• Pierce Johnson (33)

Johnson has proven one of the best deadline acquisitions of the summer. The right-hander carried a 6.00 ERA over 39 frames for the Rockies. The Braves acquired him for a pair of minor league pitchers and he’s now a key performer in their quality relief corps.

Since the trade, Johnson owns a 0.83 ERA across 21 2/3 innings. He’s keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 58% clip and striking out just under a third of opponents. He has more than halved his walk rate from 13.1% in Colorado to 6.1% for the Braves. Behind a 96 MPH heater and a power curveball in the mid-80s, he’s getting whiffs on almost 17% of offerings.

Johnson will be 33 next May and lost a good chunk of the 2022 season to forearm tendinitis. That could keep the offers limited to two years, but he should secure one of the stronger annual salaries in the relief class thanks to his dominant second half.

• Reynaldo Lopez (30)

Lopez, 30 in January, doesn’t miss the “hardest-throwing” distinction among this year’s class by much. The longtime White Sox hurler has averaged 98.4 mph on his heater in 2023 and is in his third straight season with a mid-3.00s ERA (or better). In 64 frames spread across the Sox, Angels and Guardians, Lopez has a 3.38 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. That strikeout rate is the best of his career, but Lopez’s walk rate is more than double the 5% at which it sat in 2021-22 combined.

Somewhat interestingly, Lopez has done his best work of the season since being claimed by Cleveland, where he’s throwing his changeup more than twice as much as he did with the ChiSox. Perhaps that’s small sample noise — or perhaps it’s a recipe for success. Regardless, a 30-year-old righty who sits 98-99, regularly hits triple digits, and boasts a 3.18 ERA over his past three seasons and 187 innings isn’t going to lack interest. Lopez is going to get a multi-year deal — likely at a premium annual rate.

• Robert Stephenson (31)

Stephenson has gone from unheralded journeyman acquisition to high-octane arm within a manner of months. He owned a 5.14 ERA in 14 appearances for the Pirates when he was dealt to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams in a June 2 trade. Since landing in Tampa Bay, he’s been one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over 36 1/3 frames as a Ray, Stephenson carries a 2.48 ERA. He’s striking out an eye-popping 41.8% of batters faced while walking just 6% of opponents. His dominance on a pitch-for-pitch basis is laughable. Stephenson has gotten a swinging strike on 28.2% of his pitches as a Ray and 24.1% of his offerings this season overall. Not only is that the highest rate of any pitcher with 50+ innings, it’s more than three percentage points clear of second-place Felix Bautista.

How will the market value a pitcher who has been arguably the game’s most dominant reliever for three and a half months after a career of inconsistency? Pitchers like Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero have landed three-year contracts largely behind one platform season that was less impressive than Stephenson’s last few months. The Padres went to four years and $34MM for Drew Pomeranz on the heels of a dominant second half a few seasons back.

Veterans with Closing Experience

• Brad Boxberger (36)

Boxberger was on the injured list from May through September due to a forearm strain. He returned to pitch 5 1/3 innings, allowing two runs before going back on the injured list with another forearm strain. Boxberger has a long track record and was excellent as recently as 2020-22 (3.13 ERA in 164 2/3 innings). He’s averaged a career-low 91.4 mph on his heater this year while battling injuries, however. Between that velocity dip, his age and this year’s forearm strains, he’ll be limited to short-term interest.

• Dylan Floro (33)

Floro has an average strikeout rate, better-than-average command, a plus 54.4% grounder rate and a low 87.1 mph average exit velocity this season, but he’s still sporting a 5.59 ERA in large part due to a fluky .401 average on balls in play. He’s been used as a closer and setup man in recent seasons. Fielding-independent metrics still like his 2023 work (2.96 FIP, 3.35 SIERA) even if his results are a far cry from the 2.85 ERA he posted from 2020-22.

• Craig Kimbrel (36)

Kimbrel is the top pitcher in this group. Signed to a $10MM guarantee last winter, the nine-time All-Star has saved 23 games in 27 tries for the Phillies. He owns a 3.27 ERA over 66 frames while striking out just under a third of opposing hitters. Kimbrel is picking up swinging strikes on 13.5% of his offerings and averaging 96 MPH on his fastball.

While he’s clearly not the unhittable force he was at his peak, Kimbrel is still an above-average MLB reliever. He’ll hit free agency off a better platform year than he did a season ago, when he’d posted a 3.75 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate for the Dodgers. A similar contract to the one he landed from Philadelphia should be the floor. His camp could take aim at a two-year contract, as Kenley Jansen secured last offseason, albeit at a likely lesser average annual value than Jansen’s $16MM.

• Trevor May (35)

May has worked to a 3.43 ERA and saved 20 games in 44 2/3 innings for an MLB-worst A’s team. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 19.1% clip, while his swinging strike percentage has dropped from 13.3% to 10.4%. May spent a month on the injured list early in the season due to anxiety. While he has a 2.09 ERA in 39 appearances since returning, that hasn’t been supported by middling strikeout (19.8%) and walk (12.3%) numbers. Perhaps a rebuilding team will be willing to give him another run in the ninth inning; if he signs with a contender, he’d likely move to a lower-leverage role.

• David Robertson (39)

Robertson posted a 2.05 ERA while saving 14 games with seven holds in 40 contests for the Mets. He hasn’t maintained that pace since a deadline trade to the Marlins, allowing nearly six earned runs per nine. Robertson hasn’t thrown strikes consistently in South Florida, though he has continued to miss bats at a high level. The Fish pulled him from the ninth inning last month but have kept deploying him in high-leverage situations.

The veteran’s overall season line is still solid. He carries a 3.18 ERA with an above-average 27.7% strikeout rate and a tolerable 9.6% walk percentage. While his stint with the Marlins hasn’t gone as expected, he has an established career track record as one of the game’s better late-game arms.

Middle Relievers

• Ryan Brasier (36)

After an up-and-down tenure with the Red Sox, Brasier was released in May and embarked on a radical turnaround upon signing with the Dodgers. In 36 2/3 frames with L.A., he’s posted a sensational 0.74 ERA with a markedly improved 26.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He won’t sustain a .182 average on balls in play, but Brasier went from yielding a sky-high 92.4 mph average exit velocity with the Red Sox to just 87.1 mph as a Dodger. He’ll have no problem finding a big league deal this winter — perhaps even a two-year pact.

• John Brebbia (34)

A quietly strong and versatile member of the Giants’ bullpen, Brebbia has worked to a 3.30 ERA in 103 2/3 innings dating back to 2022. That includes “starting” 20 games as an opener and also picking up 24 holds. This year’s 29.9% strikeout rate is a career-high. A right lat strain wiped out more than two months of his 2023 season, but he returned earlier this month and is on track to finish out the season healthy.

• Jesse Chavez (40)

A comeback liner struck Chavez in the shin back in June and wound up causing a microfracture that kept him off the field more than two months. He’s tossed 2 2/3 shutout innings since returning and has now allowed just one run in his past 21 2/3 frames. Chavez found new life in his late 30s, pitching to a 2.81 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 134 2/3 innings from 2021-23. If he wants to keep going, this year’s 1.42 ERA will garner plenty of interest — though another stint with the Braves might work best for all parties.

• Jose Cisnero (35)

Cisnero was excellent for the Tigers from 2020 through early July of the current season (2.77 ERA, 38 holds, 5 saves in 149 1/3 innings). He was rocked for five runs on July 7, however, and he’s yet to rediscover his form. Cisnero wasn’t traded at the deadline and passed through waivers unclaimed in August. He has a 10.41 ERA in his past 23 1/3 innings.

• Chris Devenski (33)

Devenski has split his time between the Angels and Rays, working to a 4.81 ERA across 39 1/3 innings. He has a decent 24.6% strikeout rate and a strong 6.8% walk percentage that could secure him a big league contract on the heels of a minor league pact a year ago.

• Buck Farmer (33)

Farmer parlayed a minor league deal with the Reds in the 2021-22 offseason into a regular role in David Bell’s bullpen. He’s pitched 120 innings with a 3.98 ERA, slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout rate and higher-than-average 10.6% walk rate over the past two seasons. He’s been a durable middle reliever with a 4.15 ERA or better in five of the past six seasons — the lone exception being a 6.37 mark in 35 innings with the ’21 Tigers.

• Michael Fulmer (31)

After a tough start to the season, the former AL Rookie of the Year has pitched to a 2.48 ERA over his past 36 1/3 innings — dating back to late May. Fulmer is missing bats at career-high levels (27.4% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging-strike rate) but issuing walks at the highest clip of his career as well (11.8%). Fulmer has closed and worked in setup roles since moving to the bullpen after injuries derailed his career as a starter.

• Luis Garcia (37)

Garcia averages just under 98 MPH on a bowling ball sinker, allowing him to run huge grounder rates (including a 61.6% clip this season). His strikeout rate has dropped six percentage points to a below-average 20.5% clip, however, and he’s allowing 4.17 earned runs per nine.

• Phil Maton (31)

Maton has turned in consecutive sub-4.00 seasons while topping 60 innings for the Astros. He’s striking out an above-average 26.6% of opponents against a 9.5% walk rate. Maton does an excellent job avoiding hard contact and typically generates solid results. He could find a multi-year deal as a result, although his 89.1 MPH average fastball velocity and heavy reliance on a low-70s curveball makes him an atypical target among a market that usually values high-octane relief arms.

• Keynan Middleton (30)

After signing a minor league contract a season ago, Middleton has pitched his way to a guaranteed deal this time around. He has tallied 50 innings between the White Sox and Yankees, working to a 3.08 ERA with an excellent 31.3% strikeout percentage and a massive 55.9% grounder rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 17.2% of his offerings. Middleton had posted an ERA around 5.00 in each of the three seasons preceding this one and still has spotty command. Neither Chicago nor New York plugged him directly into the late-inning mix. He’s one of the younger pitchers in the free agent class and has a rare combination of whiffs and ground-balls though.

• Shelby Miller (33)

The 40 innings Miller has thrown for the Dodgers ranks as his second-highest total since 2016. The former All-Star starter has bounced into journeyman relief mode over the last half-decade. Miller has done well in L.A., pitching to a 1.80 ERA across 40 innings. Opponents aren’t going to continue hitting under .200 on balls in play and his 12.2% walk rate is concerning. Miller has fanned upwards of 26% of batters faced after deploying a new split-finger offering this season.

• Dominic Leone (32)

Leone has appeared for three teams in 2023 and eight in his big league career overall. He continues to intrigue with a mid-90s heater and a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches, running a massive 16.1% swinging strike percentage in 50 2/3 frames this year. The whiffs haven’t translated to good results, however, as he’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine. He issues a lot of walks and has been extremely homer-prone in 2023. There might still be enough in the raw arsenal to secure a big league deal.

• Emilio Pagan (33)

Pagan had bounced around the league before finding a bit of stability with the Twins. Minnesota stuck with him after a rough first season and has been rewarded with a solid ’23 campaign. Pagan has worked to a 3.12 ERA over 66 1/3 innings, including a sterling 2.10 mark in the second half. An extreme fly-ball pitcher, Pagan has struggled with home runs in his career. The longball hasn’t been an issue this season, as he’s allowing just 0.68 per nine innings. He’ll have a hard time sustaining that over multiple years, but he averages nearly 96 MPH on his fastball and consistently runs average or better strikeout and walk numbers.

• Ryne Stanek (32)

Stanek is one of the hardest throwers in the sport, averaging upwards of 98 MPH on his heater. He has always had below-average control but typically misses enough bats to compensate for the walks. Stanek’s strikeout rate is down to a fine but unexceptional 23.7% this season, posting a 3.99 ERA over 49 2/3 frames in the process. The Astros have used him mostly in low-leverage situations after leaning on him as a key relief weapon when he posted a 1.15 ERA a year ago. While his stock is down relative to a season ago, he’s still a lock for a big league deal and among the higher-upside plays in the middle relief group.

• Chris Stratton (33)

The well-traveled Stratton has been part of deadline deals in two consecutive summers. He has split the 2023 campaign between the Cardinals and Rangers, turning in a cumulative 3.62 ERA while logging 82 innings of relief. Stratton is a middle innings workhorse who has fanned a solid 24.4% of opponents against a modest 7.5% walk rate. Despite a dip in his swinging strikes this season, he’ll get a major league contract.

• Drew VerHagen (33)

VerHagen is wrapping up a two-year contract with the Cardinals after spending a couple seasons in Japan. While his huge ground-ball numbers in NPB didn’t translate back to the majors, he has posted a 3.97 ERA with nearly average strikeout, walk and grounder rates across 59 innings this season.

Starter/Relief Hybrids

• Jakob Junis (32)

Junis has rather quietly been a solid long relief option for the Giants. He has tallied 86 innings over 40 appearances, working to a 3.87 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 5.7% walk percentage. His fastball is averaging a career-best 94 MPH and he’s getting swinging strikes on 11.3% of his offerings. Junis started 17 games a season ago and pitched well enough that another club could consider him in either role. He has a case for a two-year deal.

• Shintaro Fujinami (30)

Fujinami began his MLB career working out of the A’s rotation. He posted dismal results and was quickly pushed to the bullpen. Fujinami has found a little more success in relief, though he still carries a 5.16 ERA in 59 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. He has huge arm strength, averaging north of 99 MPH on his heater since being traded from Oakland to the Orioles. It’s an intriguing arsenal, but he has yet to assuage the concerns about his command that were present during his career in Japan.

Club Options

• Matt Barnes (34)

The Marlins are going to decline an $8.25MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout. The former All-Star closer pitched to a 5.48 ERA in 24 games for the Fish. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in July.

• Chad Green (33)

The Jays will have to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $27MM team option. If they decline, Green would have a $6.25MM player option for next season. If he declines, Toronto could circle back on a two-year, $21MM pact.

They’re working on predictably limited information, as Green didn’t make it back from last year’s Tommy John procedure until this month. His mid-90s velocity is back and he has a 13:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 innings. While Green looks much like he did with the Yankees before the surgery, it’s hard to make a definitive conclusion based on three weeks of work.

• Liam Hendriks (35)

Hendriks will likely miss the entire 2024 season after requiring Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August. The White Sox will buy him out, thereby paying what would’ve been a $15MM salary in installments over the next decade instead of next year. As a free agent, Hendriks could find interest on a two-year pact from a team hoping he can recapture his elite form in 2025.

• Daniel Hudson (37)

The Dodgers hold a $6.5MM option on Hudson which they’ll buy out. He has been limited to three appearances — first by rehab from last summer’s ACL tear, then by an MCL sprain in his opposite knee. Hudson could return for the Dodgers’ playoff run, though that won’t change the calculus on the option.

• Joe Kelly (36)

The Dodgers hold a $9.5MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $8.5MM gap seems large enough for L.A. to buy Kelly out, especially since he missed a month in the second half with forearm inflammation. Kelly has massive strikeout (35.4%) and ground-ball (58.8%) numbers behind a fastball that sits north of 99 MPH. The bottom line results haven’t followed, as he has posted a 4.34 ERA on the heels of a 6.08 showing for the White Sox a season ago.

• Jose Leclerc (30)

Texas holds a $6.25MM option or a $750K buyout on Leclerc. He’s an erratic but overall effective arm in the late innings. Through 53 2/3 frames, he owns a 2.85 ERA while fanning just under 28% of opposing hitters. The price point is modest enough the Rangers seem likely to bring Leclerc back, though his inconsistent control suggests he’s probably better served for a middle innings role if Texas deepens their relief group this winter.

• Nick Martinez (33)

The Padres have to decide whether to trigger a two-year, $32MM option at season’s end. If they decline, Martinez has a two-year, $16MM player option. With San Diego using him largely in a medium-leverage relief role, they seem unlikely to lock in a $16MM annual salary for two seasons. Yet Martinez has been effective enough he could try to top the $8MM salaries and/or secure a rotation spot in free agency.

Martinez has logged 105 1/3 innings through 62 appearances (eight starts). He’s allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine with average strikeout and walk marks and a lofty 54.1% ground-ball percentage.

• Collin McHugh (37)

The Braves hold a $6MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $5MM difference is probably beyond what they’ll want to pay, as the veteran hurler has had a middling season. He owns a 4.30 ERA across 58 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate — which sat at 27.6% during his first year in Atlanta — is down to 17.5%. McHugh has been out since early September with shoulder inflammation; he’s on a rehab stint and could return for the playoffs if the Braves want to carry him on the postseason roster.

• Alex Reyes (29)

The Dodgers signed Reyes to a free agent deal in hopes he’d return to form after a 2022 season wrecked by shoulder injuries. Unfortunately, he had a setback and underwent another season-ending surgery in June without making an appearance. The Dodgers will decline a $3MM option.

• Blake Treinen (36)

The Dodgers have a club option valued anywhere between $1-7MM. He has been out the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery last November. It’s tough to project the Dodgers’ decision until the option price is finalized.

• Kirby Yates (37)

Atlanta holds a $5.75MM option that comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a $4.5MM decision. Yates has returned after a couple seasons lost to injury to log 58 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball while striking out over 32% of opponents. His velocity is back at pre-surgery levels but his command is not, as he’s walking nearly 15% of batters faced. The price point could be modest enough for the Braves to retain Yates in hopes he dials in the strike-throwing as he gets further removed from surgery.

Player Options

• Hector Neris (35)

Neris threw 110 innings over the first two seasons of his free agent contract with the Astros, converting an $8.5MM club option into a player provision in the process (assuming he passes an end-of-year physical). Even at 35, he could decline that in search of another two-year guarantee. Neris has worked to a 1.81 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this season, working mostly in high-leverage spots. He’s picking up swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings for a second consecutive year despite losing a tick off his average fastball speed.

• Adam Ottavino (38)

Ottavino has a $6.75MM option on his contract with the Mets. The veteran righty suggested to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com last month he was likely to exercise that provision. He has a 2.82 ERA over 59 2/3 innings, although his strikeout rate has dropped more than six percentage points relative to last season.

Low-Cost Veterans and Minor League Depth (listed alphabetically)

• Garrett Acton (26), Jacob Barnes (34), Anthony Bass (36), Archie Bradley (31), Matt Bush (38), Luis Cessa (32), Carl Edwards Jr. (32), Paolo Espino (37), Jeurys Familia (34), Mychal Givens (34), Heath Hembree (35), Tommy Hunter (37), Ian Kennedy (39), Chad Kuhl (32), Dinelson Lamet (31), Mark Melancon (39), Jimmy Nelson (34), Erasmo Ramirez (34), Dennis Santana (28), Bryan Shaw (36), Ryan Tepera (36), Nick Wittgren (33), Jimmy Yacabonis (32)

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher, lefty relief.

We’ve been covering the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. After covering the starters yesterday, we’re on to the relief group. We’ll begin with the southpaws.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

• Josh Hader (30)

Long one of the game’s most dominant relievers, Hader now finds himself on the precipice of free agency, where he’ll be among the most sought-after talents on the market this winter. He’s no longer the premier strikeout arm in baseball but still sports the fifth-best strikeout rate of any qualified reliever in 2023 at 36.7%. The dip from his days of fanning around 45% of his opponents hasn’t made him any less effective, however. Hader boasts a sensational 1.21 ERA and has allowed all of three earned runs since Memorial Day.

There was some hand-wringing about the lefty’s struggles in the run-up to the 2022 trade deadline and about his early performance following a trade to the Padres. Hader quieted those concerns with a dominant showing both in September and in the postseason. Since being blown up for six runs on Aug. 28, 2022, Hader’s numbers look like this (postseason included): 68 2/3 innings, 1.05 ERA, 37.3% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, two home runs allowed (0.26 HR/9).

Hader has been a veritable bullpen cheat code this season and for much of his career. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he’ll reach free agency with his sights set on topping Edwin Diaz’s $102MM guarantee — the largest ever for any reliever — and should have a legitimate chance to do so.

High-Leverage Relievers

• Aroldis Chapman (36)

It’s been a resurgent year for Chapman both in terms of velocity and overall results. His heater’s 99.1 mph average is at its highest point since the 2017 season, and Chapman has unsurprisingly seen notable improvement in his strikeout rate (42.9%) and swinging-strike rate (17.6%). Among 439 relievers who’ve pitched at least 10 innings this year, Chapman trails only Baltimore’s Felix Bautista in terms of strikeout rate.

Overall, the former Reds, Yankees and Cubs closer has pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. Chapman’s command is always going to be shaky, and this year has been no exception; he’s allowed a free pass to 14.2% of his opponents. His sky-high strikeout rate has offset that, however, as he’s found success working primarily in a setup role between Kansas City and Texas. Chapman signed a one-year, make-good deal with the Royals this past offseason that guaranteed him $3.75MM. He’ll be in line for a considerably heavier payday this time around — quite possibly on a multi-year deal. He should have closing opportunities available to him.

• Matt Moore (35)

It’s been quite the career arc for Moore. A top prospect and burgeoning star with the Rays early in his career, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, returned looking more like a fourth starter and, after being traded two different times, eventually settled into journeyman status. Moore had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers in 2022, but he’s found new life as a bona fide late-inning reliever over the past two seasons.

Moore’s 2022 breakout in Texas (1.95 ERA in 74 innings) led to a one-year, $7.55MM deal with the Angels in 2023, and he’s continued to demonstrate his efficacy in leverage situations. In 48 2/3 frames between the Angels and Guardians, the southpaw has a 2.77 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He’s picked up 21 holds as well.

Claimed off waivers by the Marlins this week, he’ll spend the final week-plus of the season in Miami and hope to help push them to a postseason spot, even though he won’t be eligible for the playoff roster. Dating back to 2022, Moore has a 2.27 ERA and 35 holds in 122 2/3 innings with a well above-average strikeout rate. He’s shown that his 2022 season wasn’t a fluke, and there ought to be multi-year offers waiting for him in free agency.

• Wandy Peralta (32)

Acquired in an April 2021 trade that sent 2019 cult hero Mike Tauchman to the Giants, Peralta wound up providing the Yankees with two and a half seasons of quality bullpen innings. In 153 innings with the Yankees dating back to that ’21 trade, Peralta has turned in a sharp 2.83 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He’s overwhelmed left-handed opponents, held his own against righties, and kept the ball on the ground at a roughly 55% clip — all while sporting a heater that averages better than 95 mph.

Peralta isn’t a household name, but he’s been a quietly solid big league reliever dating back to his 2020 season with the Giants — evidenced by a 3.01 ERA over 188 2/3 innings in that time. He could find a two-year deal in free agency this winter.

• Will Smith (34)

After an up-and-down tenure in Atlanta over the course of his prior three-year deal, Smith lingered on the free agent market into March this past offseason. He’d turned things around following a trade to the Astros but still seemed to be met with skepticism, as he commanded a modest one-year, $2MM deal in free agency.

Through late August, the deal looked to be a bargain. Smith pitched to a 2.96 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates, but he’s hit a rocky stretch in the 2023 campaign’s final two months. Over his past 18 1/3 innings, Smith has been charged with 17 earned runs on 22 hits (three homers) and eight walks with 15 strikeouts. It’s ballooned his ERA from 2.96 all the way to 4.55. The veteran lefty’s 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and 35.4% chase rate are all strong marks, but this recent rough patch could result in him settling for another one-year deal in his return to the market this winter.

Middle Relievers

• Scott Alexander (34)

A ground-ball machine with good command who doesn’t miss many bats, Alexander has tossed 48 1/3 innings of 4.66 ERA ball for the Giants this year. San Francisco has used him as an opener on eight occasions as well. From 2016-22, Alexander notched 216 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA and mammoth 70.1% ground-ball rate. This year’s results aren’t great, but he should get a big league deal this winter.

• Jake Diekman (37)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the veteran Diekman struggled through rough showings with the White Sox in both 2022 and early 2023 before bouncing back upon signing with the Rays. In 42 1/3 innings, the Diekman has pitched to a 2.34 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate. Command has been a problem for Diekman throughout his career, but he still throws hard and still misses bats at a high level. Tampa Bay hasn’t used him in high-leverage spots, but he’s had success more often than not there and should be in line for another big league deal this winter.

• Brent Suter (34)

A waiver claim out of the Brewers organization early in the 2022-23 offseason, Suter hasn’t been fazed by pitching at altitude. In 64 2/3 innings with the Rox, he’s pitched to a 3.48 ERA — a near mirror image of the career 3.51 mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. Suter’s 18% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 8.8% walk rate is a career-high. However, the soft-tossing lefty has long been one of the game’s best at avoiding hard contact, and that’s true again in 2023: 83.6 mph average exit velocity, 3% barrel rate, 25.9% hard-hit rate. Opponents just don’t square the ball up against Suter, and he’s made a fine career out of that knack for weak contact.

Club Options

• Andrew Chafin (34)

Chafin posted big strikeout numbers with the D-backs but has struggled since being traded to the Brewers, for whom he has a 7.82 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. The veteran southpaw was sporting a 3.06 ERA and matching FIP at the All-Star break — a number that falls right in line with the collective 3.05 ERA he posted in 289 innings from 2017-22. The recent rough patch stems from a small-sample spike in homers (three) and walks (eight) in his short time with Milwaukee. The poor results seem like they’ll lead to the Brewers opting for a $725K buyout rather than Chafin’s $7.25MM option price, but he should get a big league deal again in free agency this winter.

• Jarlin Garcia (31)

Garcia didn’t wind up pitching at all with the Pirates after signing a one-year deal, as a biceps injury incurred in spring training ended up shelving him for the season. The Bucs will surely buy out his $3.25MM option.

• Brad Hand (34)

Hand’s $7MM club option actually converted to a mutual option when he was traded from the Rockies to the Braves, but that’s a moot point. The former All-Star has limped to a 6.00 ERA with Atlanta, and the team will likely pay a $500K buyout.

• Aaron Loup (36)

Loup pitched decently in 2022 — the first season of a two-year, $17MM free agent contract. He’s been roughed up to tune of a 6.10 ERA in 2023, however. A bloated .373 average on balls in play has surely played a role in that, but his strikeout, walk and grounder rates have all also continued to trend in the wrong direction since his career year with the Mets in 2021 (0.95 ERA in 56 2/3  innings). The Halos figure to pay the $2MM buyout on his $7.5MM option.

• Brooks Raley (36)

Raley parlayed a successful three-year KBO run into a big league return in 2020, and he’s since solidified himself as a quality reliever. He’s sporting a 2.94 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate this season, albeit against a questionable 10.3% walk rate. Given Raley’s 2.81 ERA, nine saves and 46 holds in his past 105 2/3 innings, his $6.5MM club option seems like a good value. That’s especially true given that it comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a net $5.25MM call. Even if the Mets don’t want to pay that price plus the associated luxury tax fees, he should have trade value.

• Joely Rodriguez (32)

Injuries have limited Rodriguez to only 11 innings this year, during which time he has a 6.55 ERA. The Red Sox shut him down from throwing due to a hip injury back in August. They’re a virtual lock to pay the $500K buyout rather than pick up Rodriguez’s $4.25MM option.

• Justin Wilson (36)

Wilson signed a big league deal last winter while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Brewers were likely intrigued by the new slider he’d unveiled with the Reds in a tiny sample of 3 2/3 innings during the 2022 season. Wilson whiffed seven of his 13 opponents with a mammoth 18.5% swinging-strike rate before hitting the injured list and requiring surgery. Wilson completed a 14-month rehab only to suffer a lat strain while warming up in the bullpen for his return to a big league mound. That injury ended his season, and it’s likely the Brewers will decline his $2.5MM option in favor of a $150K buyout.

Veteran Depth and Bounceback Hopefuls

• Fernando Abad (37), Richard Bleier (37), Amir Garrett (32), T.J. McFarland (35), Daniel Norris (31), Drew Pomeranz (34), Chasen Shreve (33)

All of these 30-something hurlers have had big league experience in the past. Abad was a quality middle reliever from 2013-17 but has just 37 big league innings since (6 1/3 coming with the Rockies this year). The soft-tossing Bleier was rocked in Boston this year but had a 3.09 ERA with the O’s and Marlins from 2020-22. Garrett has a history of missing bats for the Reds, but his longstanding command issues worsened with the Royals over the past two seasons. McFarland is a ground-ball specialist with good command but one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. Norris has missed bats in the past but also been quite homer-prone. Pomeranz was one of the game’s best lefty relievers but hasn’t pitched since 2021 due to injury. Shreve’s career 3.97 ERA is solid, but he’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis recently.

This group figures to draw plenty of interest in minor league free agency over the winter but might have a hard time finding a guaranteed deal due to recent struggles and/or health woes.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher.

All stats through play Thursday.

We’ve been covering the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR, going through each of the non-pitching positions. But now it’s time to take the mound, beginning with the starters. Though it can be debated whether there’s a true ace in the mix, there’s plenty of arms here that would upgrade the rotation of any team.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

The Unicorn

• Shohei Ohtani (29)

As recently as a few months ago, Ohtani was gliding on a path towards the greatest free agent platform in history. He was in the midst of his third straight season of double duty, providing the Angels with an elite bat and simultaneously serving as their staff ace. Over the 2021 to 2023 periods, he hit 124 home runs and stole 57 bases. His .277/.379/.585 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 156, indicating he’s been 56% better than league average. He also threw 428 1/3 innings with a 2.84 earned run average. He earned MVP honors in 2021, finished second in the voting for that award last year and seems likely to win it again this year.

He was guaranteed to set a record-setting contract of some sort, the only question was the degree to which he would surpass previous benchmarks. The $365MM guarantee of Mookie Betts and the $43.33MM average annual value of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both seemed to be in jeopardy.

But the picture has changed in the last few months. Ohtani was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in August and was shut down from pitching. He continued serving as the club’s designated hitter but was eventually shut down due to an oblique injury. That oblique issue isn’t a long-term concern, but since it stopped Ohtani from hitting, it allowed him to go undergo surgery a few weeks earlier than he might have otherwise.

He went under the knife this week and it’s unclear if it was a full Tommy John procedure or a lesser internal brace option. Either way, his surgeon released a statement saying that he expects Ohtani to be able to hit by Opening Day of 2024 and pitch by 2025.

Ohtani is still likely to get a record-setting contract based on his bat alone, but the questions surrounding his future pitching abilities will likely tamp it down somewhat. He already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and now has another significant elbow surgery to work through. Ohtani is already in uncharted waters in terms of his double workload with the surgery now another factor. The clubs around the league will likely have differing opinions on what kind of performance they think he can maintain from this point forward.

Though he seemingly won’t pitch at all in 2024, it seems fair to expect that the club with the most faith in Ohtani’s return to the mound would be the most willing to put a financial bet on him. Similarly, Ohtani would likely be drawn to whichever club will give him the most runway to keep pitching in the future. Even if he has to leave the mound down the line, he has strong speed and outfield experience, giving him a path forward even in the scenario where his arm doesn’t come back to previous levels. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Angels.

Front-Of-The-Rotation Options

• Lucas Giolito (29)

Who is the real Giolito? Over 2019 and 2020, he made 41 starts for the White Sox with a 3.43 ERA and 32.7% strikeout rate. In 2021, his strikeouts dipped to a 27.9% rate, though he was able to keep his ERA at a respectable 3.53. His punchouts dipped again last year, slipping to 25.4%, as his ERA jumped to 4.90.

Here in 2023, he seemed to get back on track somewhat. Through 21 starts with the Sox, he had an ERA of 3.79, though his strikeout rate ticked up only gradually to 25.8%. He was traded to the Angels at the deadline and things went off the rails again. He had an ERA of 6.89 in his six starts for the Halos and wound up on waivers, landing with the Guardians. His first start for the Guards was a disastrous outing, as he allowed nine earned runs in three innings against the Twins. But two starts later, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rangers with 12 punchouts.

All that makes him one of the most difficult pitchers to peg. Is he the borderline ace that we saw a few years ago? Or the inconsistent back-end guy we’ve seen more recently? Perhaps some club is willing to dismiss his most recent results as a small sample size that was caused by strange circumstances as he bounced around the league. But his combined ERA for the season is now up to 4.60, not too far from last year’s mark. He is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to changing teams midseason.

• Sonny Gray (34)

Gray is the oldest of this group but is having arguably the best platform season. He’s tossed 174 innings over his 30 starts for the Twins with a 2.84 ERA in that time. He has struck out 23.9% of opponents, walked just 7.6% and kept batted balls on the ground at a 47.4% rate. Snell’s ERA of 2.33 is half a run better than Gray’s, but the former has benefitted from a .255 batting average on balls in play and 86.2% strand rate, leading to a 3.48 FIP that is significantly higher than Gray’s 2.85.

After a rough 2018 season in which he had an ERA of 4.90 with the Yankees, Gray was traded to the Reds and signed a contract extension that ran through 2022 and had a club option for 2023. By signing that deal, he locked in some significant earnings but also pushed off his free agency until now. He will still get paid on the heels of his excellent season but he will be limited in terms of length. Last winter, Chris Bassitt got three years and $63MM from the Jays going into his age-34 campaign, with his track record and platform year both less impressive than Gray’s. Gray could look for four or five years as a result. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer.

• Jordan Montgomery (31)

Unlike some of the mercurial options in this bucket, Montgomery brings consistency and reliability to the table. He debuted with the Yankees in 2017, posting an ERA of 3.88 over 29 starts. Six more starts the following year produced an ERA of 3.62 before he required Tommy John surgery. He wobbled a bit in 2020 but has been incredibly steady over the past three years, producing ERAs of 3.83, 3.48 and 3.38. His FIPs are even tidier, going from 3.69 to 3.61 and 3.57 in the past three campaigns.

Overall, he has tossed 742 innings with an ERA of 3.74. His 22.5% strikeout rate isn’t especially eye-popping but he’s limited walks to a 6.6% rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 43.7% clip. He may not have flashy ace upside but is a solid #2 and perfectly acceptable playoff starter. He’ll top the four-year deals of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, the former of whom got $68MM and the latter $72MM, and has a strong case for a nine figure deal. Montgomery is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers midseason.

• Aaron Nola (31)

Nola’s track record isn’t as inconsistent as Giolito’s, but he is also experiencing an ill-timed down year. From 2015 to 2022, he made 203 starts with an ERA of 3.60 along with a 27.5% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. He produced 30 wins above replacement in that time, according to FanGraphs, a mark topped only by Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.

Though he was one of the game’s best pitchers for years, that hasn’t been the case in 2023. His 31 starts have produced 187 innings of 4.57 ERA ball. His 25.2% strikeout rate is a four-point drop from last year and his worst mark since 2016. He is being victimized somewhat by a 65.7% strand rate that’s a bit unlucky, but his 4.08 FIP is still the worst of his career, as is the 31 home runs he’s allowed this season. If any club is willing to look past this year as a blip, Nola could be in line for a nine-figure deal, but time will tell if that’s in the cards. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer.

• Blake Snell (31)

Like many of the pitchers in this category, Snell has huge upside but hasn’t been able to produce it consistently. He produced a 1.89 ERA over 31 starts for the Rays in 2018, winning the American League Cy Young award in the process. But the next four years were a bit more middling, as he put up an ERA of 3.85 in 85 starts, never reaching 130 innings in any of those season. One of them was the shortened 2020 campaign, but he struggled to stay healthy in the others.

He got out to a terrible start this year with a 5.40 ERA through his first nine outings. But he’s been the best pitcher in the league since then, posting a minuscule 1.26 ERA over his past 22 outings. Overall, he has logged 174 innings over 31 starts with a 2.33 ERA, 31.7% strikeout rate and 43.8% ground ball rate. The 13.5% walk rate is a concern and Snell can’t keep stranding 86.2% of baserunners, but he could hardly have asked for a better platform year and could even nab a second Cy Young. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer en route to a contract that could exceed $150MM.

Question Mark

• Julio Urias (27)

Urias would have been in the previous group based on his career ERA of 3.11 and hitting free agency just after his 27th birthday. But he’s currently on administrative leave as he’s being investigated for a violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. He already received a DV suspension back in 2019 and could potentially be the first player get a second. It’s unclear what kind of punishment he’s facing or if he will pitch in the majors again.

NPB Stars

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (25)

Yamamoto is putting the finishing touches on his seventh season for the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and it may be his best yet. Over 170 games dating back to 2017, he has an ERA of 1.84 in 883 innings. Here in 2023, he’s got that ERA all the way down to 1.32 over his 21 appearances, striking out 25.2% of batters while walking just 4.4%. Yamamoto will need to be posted by his current club, but it is widely expected that they will do so.

The transition from Japan to North American doesn’t always go perfectly, but there are reasons to expect Yamamoto might be the most significant NPB transfer in years. For one thing, his performance in Japan is just stronger than some others that have recently made the jump. Kodai Senga had an ERA of 2.42 before crossing the Pacific, Kenta Maeda 2.39 and Ohtani 2.55. The other factor is his age, as Yamamoto just turned 25 in August. Senga came over for his age-30 season and Maeda for his age-28 campaign, while Ohtani came over when he was still an amateur and couldn’t secure a true open market deal.

As you can see with the other guys listed in this post, most MLB players don’t reach free agency until around their 30th birthday. The ability for a club to sign a dominant pitcher for their late 20s just doesn’t happen, making Yamamoto a very interesting case. There’s a decent chance he gets a bigger contract than everyone else here except for Ohtani. Yamamoto won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer but the signing club will have to pay a posting fee to the Buffaloes, which will be relative to the size of the contract.

• Shota Imanaga (30)

Imanaga isn’t quite as exciting as Yamamoto, but should draw plenty of interest in his own right. Over his eight NPB seasons, the left-hander has appeared in 163 games with an ERA of 3.17. That mark was 2.26 last year and is at 2.71 this year. He is striking out 30% of batters faced this year while walking just 3.8%. It was reported earlier this month that the Yokohama DeNa Baystars will post him for big league clubs.

Given his age and performance, his earning power will clearly be less than that of Yamamoto, but he could still draw interest from clubs who view him as a serviceable big league starter. Like Yamamoto, Imanaga won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer but the signing club will have to pay a posting fee to the Buffaloes, which will be relative to the size of the contract.

Potential Mid-Rotation Wild Cards

• Jack Flaherty (28)

Flaherty once seemed to be a burgeoning ace with the Cardinals, posting an ERA of 3.34 in 2018 and then 2.75 in 2019. But that figure jumped to 4.91 in the shortened 2020 season and he battled injuries in the next two years, tossing just 114 1/3 frames combined over those two seasons.

This season, he’s been healthy but nowhere near his form from a few years ago. He made 20 starts for the Cardinals with a 4.43 ERA, decent enough to get him flipped to the Orioles at the deadline. His first start with the O’s saw him throw six innings against the Jays while allowing just one earned run, but he had an 8.42 ERA over his next six starts and got moved to the bullpen.

Overall, he has an ERA of 4.96 on the year, along with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 42.5% ground ball rate. His 4.37 FIP indicates a bit of bad luck in his ERA, likely due to his .354 BABIP. Flaherty has been injured or middling for a few years now, which could temper his market. But he’s been healthy this year, has shown tremendous upside in the past and still has youth on his size. Like the rest of the names in this section, his market could go a number of different ways.

• Michael Lorenzen (32)

Lorenzen spent much of his career working out of the bullpen for the Reds, but made it clear upon reaching free agency that he wanted a rotation job. He got one with the Angels in 2022, signing a one-year deal with a $6.75MM guarantee, and posted a decent 4.24 ERA. He was limited by injury to just 18 starts but it was enough for him to get $8.5MM plus incentives from the Tigers for this year.

He started the year on the IL due to a groin strain but was back by mid-April and took the ball 18 times for Detroit. He posted an ERA of 3.58 and got flipped to the Phillies prior to the deadline. His tenure in Philly couldn’t have started much better, as he threw eight innings of two-run ball against the Marlins before throwing a no-hitter against the Nationals. However, he posted a 7.96 ERA in his next five starts and got bumped to the bullpen. Despite the rough run of late, he has a 4.29 ERA on the year and has stayed healthy enough to log 149 innings, which should get him plenty of interest in free agency.

• Kenta Maeda (36)

Maeda’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery has been better than it might look at first glance. The right-hander’s 101 innings of 4.28 ERA ball seem solid enough on the surface, but that’s skewed by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, after which Maeda hit the injured list due to a triceps injury. Maeda missed nearly two months, but since returning he’s rattled off 16 starts of 3.39 ERA ball, striking out 28.7% of his opponents against a 6.7% walk rate. The extent to which that injury impacted his one true meltdown of the year can’t be fully known, but since returning, he’s looked close to the version of himself that finished second in American League Cy Young voting back in 2020. He should find a multi-year deal at a healthy annual value this winter, although his age might limit it to a two-year term.

• Tyler Mahle (29)

The Twins traded three prospects to acquire Mahle for a year and a half, but he wound up pitching just 42 innings for Minnesota due to a shoulder issue and, in 2023, a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. It turned into a rotten trade, considering the Twins parted with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to acquire Mahle.

Mahle pitched well for the Twins when healthy, however, and he has a strong overall track record dating back to his 2020 breakout: 374 innings, 3.90 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate. The right-hander’s biggest problem with the Reds was home runs, though the vast majority of the long balls he surrendered were at Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. Mahle has good command, can miss bats and will be 29 for all of next season. He probably won’t pitch until the end of the 2024 season, but teams have generally been willing to sign quality arms like this to two-year deals while they rehab, with an eye toward the second year of the contract.

• Frankie Montas (31)

Speaking of deadline acquisitions that didn’t pan out,  the Yankees got just 39 2/3 innings out of Montas after trading JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina to the A’s for Montas and Lou Trivino in July 2022. Shoulder surgery wiped out all of Montas’ 2023 season, and he’ll now hit the market in search of a bounceback opportunity.

Prior to his shoulder woes, Montas had stepped up as the top starter on a strong Oakland staff, logging 291 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball with a 26.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate. Whoever signs him this winter will be hoping for a return to that form. Montas will pitch all of next year at 31, and a deal that allows him to return to the market next winter after reestablishing both his health and productivity makes sense.

• James Paxton (35)

After barely pitching from 2020-22, Paxton returned to the mound with 19 starts and 96 innings for the Red Sox in 2023. He posted a pedestrian 4.50 ERA, although it seems the lefty just wore down late in the season after such a lengthy layoff from pitching. Up through Aug. 16, Paxton was sporting a 3.34 ERA, but that number ballooned after he yielded 16 runs in his final 9 2/3 frames (three starts).

There’s never been much doubt about the quality of Paxton’s stuff. He posted a 3.50 ERA over his first 733 big league innings from 2013-19, peaking with a 2.98 ERA and premium strikeout/walk rates with the 2017 Mariners. Health has been a major issue, however, as he’s dealt with shoulder and forearm injuries in addition to undergoing Tommy John surgery and back surgery. Paxton turns 35 in November and has one of the highest ceilings in this class but also poses one of the greatest injury risks.

• Hyun Jin Ryu (37)

Much of what was written of Paxton holds true of Ryu as well. The 36-year-old southpaw (37 in March) has a career 3.24 ERA in 1048 big league innings and is an ace-caliber arm at best — evidenced by his runner-up finish in 2019’s NL Cy Young voting, when he posted a 2.32 ERA in 182 2/3 innings (during the juiced-ball season, no less). Ryu doesn’t have Paxton’s velocity or strikeout rate, but he has standout command and misses bats at a roughly average rate. He’s pitched 44 2/3 innings with a 2.62 ERA in his 2023 return from Tommy John surgery. It’s hard to imagine Ryu commanding anything more than two years, and his age/injury history might relegate him to one-year offers. If that’s the case, however, he should net a relatively hefty price.

• Luis Severino (30)

Severino looked like a budding ace with the Yankees in 2017-18, but injuries have limited him to just 209 1/3 innings over the past five seasons combined. A strained rotator cuff, two lat strains and Tommy John surgery are among the many injuries he’s incurred since that breakout. Severino has always pitched well when healthy — until this season, when he posted a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 frames. An exasperated Severino candidly acknowledged in July that he felt like “the worst pitcher in the game” as he tried to get to the root of this year’s struggles. He’ll turn 30 next February, so there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around. A change of scenery seems likely, and Severino will likely have to settle for a short-term deal.

Short-Term Options If They Decide To Keep Going

• Carlos Carrasco (37)

One of the American League’s best pitchers from 2014-20, Carrasco was traded to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor and has had an up-and-down tenure in Queens. His 2022 campaign was solid, but he’s pitched to an ERA over 6.00 in each of his other two years with the team. That includes a grisly 6.80 mark in 90 innings this season.

• Zack Greinke (40)

Greinke got a standing ovation from Royals fans as he exited his most recent start, and it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll want to come back for a 21st big league season at age 40. The future Hall of Famer is just 28 punchouts shy of becoming the 20th pitcher to ever record 3000 strikeouts, but his effectiveness has waned. Greinke’s 5.37 ERA is his highest since his age-21 season in 2005, and while his 1-15 record is largely a reflection of the disastrous team surrounding him, it underscores what a difficult season he and the Royals have had on the whole.

• Clayton Kershaw (36)

Kershaw is working on the 13th sub-3.00 ERA of his 16-year career, sporting a 2.52 mark in 121 2/3 innings. He’s still among the best in the NL when he pitches, but injuries have limited him for the eighth straight season. Kershaw hasn’t made 30 starts since 2015, but he has a 2.56 ERA in 1091 innings during that span. If he keeps pitching, it’ll likely be with the Dodgers, although his hometown Rangers tried to sign him last winter and could do so again. For any older player with a young family, there’s some allure to pitching 15 to 20 minutes from your year-round home.

• Wade Miley (37)

The second act of Miley’s career has arguably been better than the first. Since turning in consecutive mid-5.00 ERAs in 2016-17, he’s pitched 571 2/3 innings with a 3.48 ERA between the Brewers, Astros, Cubs and Reds. His second stint in Milwaukee has been sharp, with a 3.20 ERA in 115 1/3 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate is among the lowest in the game, but Miley has above-average command and regularly ranks among the game’s best at minimizing hard contact. A team looking for a steady fourth or fifth starter at the back of the rotation can bank on him to get the job done.

Back-End Guys

• Mike Clevinger (33)

The 2023 season has been a bounceback for Clevinger, who’s posted a 3.42 ERA in 122 2/3 innings as of this writing. Tommy John surgery limited him to just 41 2/3 innings from 2020-21, and he logged a pedestrian 4.33 ERA with a middling strikeout rate in 114 1/3 innings in the 2022 season. Clevinger has upped that strikeout rate a bit in 2023 (from 18.8% to 21.1%) and is sporting a nice 7.4% walk rate. His 94.7 mph average fastball is back up to pre-surgery levels as well. Durability is a concern, as this year’s 22 starts are tied for the second-most he’s ever made in a season.

• Kyle Gibson (36)

The Orioles gave Gibson $10MM to eat innings at the back of the rotation, and that’s what he’s done, piling up 180 frames with a lackluster 5.00 ERA. Gibson has solid command and ground-ball tendencies, but he misses bats at a below-average level and his hittable arsenal leads to lots of traffic on the bases. This would be his third ERA of 5.00 or more in the past four seasons.

• Rich Hill (44)

Hill has already said he hopes to continue pitching in 2024. His effectiveness has taken a hit, particularly following a trade to the Padres, but Hill will take the ball every fifth day and was a respectable innings eater for much of the season in Pittsburgh. He’s 11 wins why of 100 in his career, 81 strikeouts away from 1500 and 97 2/3 innings from the 1500 mark. He could serve as a veteran mentor for a young staff and eat innings, just as he did in Pittsburgh this year.

• Dallas Keuchel (35)

Keuchel has plenty of good years on his résumé, including a Cy Young-winning season in 2015. But his results haven’t been great recently. After posting an ERA of 1.99 in the shortened 2020 season, that number ballooned to 5.28 the following season and a disastrous 9.20 last year.

He did some work with Driveline to restore some velocity and movement and the results have been a bit better this year. He got back to the big leagues with the Twins and has an ERA of 5.67 over a small sample of 33 1/3 innings. His 63.7% strand rate suggests a bit of bad luck, leading to a 4.25 FIP and 5.21 SIERA. It’s not a superstar performance but he seems more viable as a veteran innings eater than he did just a few months ago.

• Martin Perez (33)

Perez posted an out-of-the-blue 2.89 ERA in 32 starts for the 2022 Rangers and accepted a qualifying offer at season’s end. It hasn’t worked out for the Rangers, as he pitched to an ERA just a hair shy of 5.00 in 20 starts before being moved to a low-leverage role in the ’pen. Texas is moving him back to the rotation for the final stretch of the season after a strong run of relief work. This year’s 4.49 ERA is more or less in line with where fielding-independent metrics have pegged Perez for the past five years (4.38 FIP, 4.50 xFIP, 4.72 SIERA). He won’t come close to this year’s $19.65MM salary but could land a deal similar to those commanded by Gibson and Jordan Lyles in recent years.

Reliever/Starter Hybrids

• Matthew Boyd (33)

Boyd probably won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late June. He can miss bats at average or better levels and pairs that ability with solid command, but injuries have regularly derailed him. A low-cost two-year deal with an eye toward a 2025 return could be on the table.

• Chris Flexen (29)

Flexen was a durable and effective member of the Mariners’ rotation in 2021-22 before his performance dropped off this year. He’s been hit hard in 10 starts with the Rockies but demonstrated good command. He could be signed to compete for the fifth or sixth spot in a rotation, with the team knowing he’s experienced in a long relief role if he doesn’t win a starting gig.

• Jakob Junis (31)

Junis has had a couple nice years as swingman in San Francisco, notching a 4.21 ERA in 196 2/3 innings (21 starts, 41 relief appearances). His 23% strikeout rate is about average, but his 5.5% walk rate is outstanding. If he doesn’t return to the Giants, another club could look to deploy him in a similar role. He should have a big league deal awaiting him on the open market.

• Alex Wood (33)

Wood’s first year with the Giants was a clear success (3.83 ERA in 26 starts after signing a one-year, $4MM deal). The subsequent two-year, $25MM deal hasn’t gone as well. Last year’s 5.10 ERA in roughly the same number of innings could be downplayed as fluky; his excellent strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all pointed to better results. Unfortunately, Wood has seen a drop in velocity even as he’s spent some time in the bullpen, and his rate stats have all trended in the wrong direction. Hamstring and back injuries have surely played a role in that decline. Wood has a 4.60 ERA in 92 innings and fielding-independent marks to match.

Depth Options

• Zach Davies (31)

An excellent 2020 season increasingly looks like an outlier. Davies has at times been a passable fourth or fifth starter, as he was with the D-backs in 2022, but he’s posted an aggregate 5.38 ERA over the past three seasons.

• Brad Keller (28)

Keller’s run with the Royals from 2018-20 (360 innings, 3.50 ERA) was one of the best by a Rule 5 pick in recent memory. It’s been downhill since, however, and he’s been limited to 45 1/3 innings this year. The Royals recently shut him down due to symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.

• Jake Odorizzi (34)

Odorizzi missed the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery. He posted a 4.31 ERA in 211 innings with the Astros and Braves from 2021-22, rarely being asked to pitch beyond the fifth inning. Odorizzi posted a 3.88 ERA in just shy of 1000 innings from 2014-19.

• Noah Syndergaard (31)

Syndergaard has never been the same since undergoing Tommy John surgery. His power arsenal has deteriorated across the board. The Dodgers flipped him to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario prior to the deadline — a swap of underperforming veterans on underwater contracts. Cleveland released Syndergaard after six starts. It’s possible he could land a low-cost big league deal, but the Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians have all been unable to get him back to his pre-surgery form.

• Julio Teheran (33)

Teheran followed a terrific run of six starts to begin his Brewers career with a stretch of five ugly outings. He’s sitting on a 4.74 ERA with the best walk rate (4.3%) but slowest fastball (89.1 mph) of his career. Teheran logged a 3.64 ERA in 1334 innings with the Braves from 2013-19 but has a 6.27 mark in 99 innings over the four year since.

• Jose Urena (32)

Urena had some effective seasons with the Marlins earlier in his career but has been in journeyman mode since. He started this year with the Rockies but allowed 20 earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in five starts before being released. He’s currently eating innings for the White Sox as that club plays out the string. He has a 5.55 ERA dating back to the start of 2019 and a mark of 7.27 this year.

• Vince Velasquez (32)

Velasquez has long had potent stuff but has struggled to produce strong results, with his ERA hovering around 5.00 for most of his career. He showed some positive steps with the Pirates this year, posting an ERA of 3.86 in eight starts, but unfortunately required elbow surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of 2024. He should find a short-term deal of some kind, though the injury will limit the commitment from the team side.

• Luke Weaver (30)

The Reds gave Weaver a surprisingly long leash, in part because they didn’t do anything to address their rotation depth in the winter and incurred several injuries. The former top prospect has posted an ERA north of 6.00 in three of the past four seasons (6.09 overall), including a 6.77 mark in 114 2/3 innings this year. He’ll likely have to take a minor league deal.

Minor League Depth Options

• Jason Alexander (31)
• A.J. Alexy (26)
• Daniel Castano (29)
• Matt Dermody (33)
• Chi Chi Gonzalez (32)
• Shane Greene (35)
• Zach Logue (28)
• Michael Mariot (35)
• Mike Mayers (32)
• Alec Mills (32)
• Tommy Milone (37)
• Daniel Norris (31)
• Zach Plesac (29)
• Dereck Rodriguez (32)
• Jose Rodriguez (28)
• Adrian Sampson (32)
• Devin Smeltzer (28)
• Zach Thompson (30)
• Spenser Watkins (31)
• Mitch White (29)

Players With Opt-Outs/Player Options

• Andrew Heaney (33), $13MM player option with no buyout, which jumps to $20MM at 150 innings pitched in 2023

After years of middling results, Heaney seemed to take a step forward with the Dodgers last year. He dragged a career ERA of 4.72 into 2022 but then posted a 3.10 ERA that year. He was limited by injury to just 72 2/3 innings, but it was still strong enough for the Rangers to guarantee him $25MM over two years along with incentives and an opt-out.

Here in 2023, he hasn’t quite been able to maintain last year’s momentum. He has stayed healthy and has thrown 138 1/3 innings but his ERA has ticked up to 4.42. Last year’s 35.5% strikeout rate has dropped all the way to 24% this year, with his walk rate also going from 6.1% to 9.4%.

Heaney’s last three outings have come out of the bullpen, which is partly due to his results but also reflects a financial motivation for the move. The second year of his contract is a $13MM player option, but the value jumps to $20MM if he throws 150 innings this year. He might have already been over that line if he stayed in the rotation but might now come up just short. Given his uninspiring season, he surely would have accepted a $20MM salary but it will be more of a borderline call if it stays at $13MM.

• Seth Lugo (34), $7.5MM player option with no buyout

Lugo had been mainly working out of the Mets’ bullpen for his career until he reached free agency after last year. He got widespread interest from clubs who thought he could move back to the rotation and eventually signed with the Padres on a two-year, $15MM deal, with the second year being a $7.5MM player option.

The move to a starting role has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. He made one trip to the IL due to a calf strain, missing just over a month, but has otherwise stayed healthy. He has logged 137 2/3 innings over 25 starts with a 3.79 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate.

Lugo should be a lock to turn down his player option and return to free agency. He’s one year older than his last trip to the open market, but now has proof of his ability to handle a starter’s workload while maintaining his effectiveness.

• Sean Manaea (32), $12.5MM player option with no buyout

Manaea had some strong years with the A’s but his platform season with the Padres was arguably the worst of his career. He had a 3.86 ERA at the end of 2021 but then posted a 4.96 figure in 2022. The Giants decided to bank on him anyway, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal with an opt-out after the first season.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to return to his previous form. He has made 35 appearances, only eight of which are considered true starts thanks to creative pitcher usage in San Francisco, logging 104 2/3 innings with a 4.82 ERA that’s closer to last year’s performance than earlier seasons. His 26.1% strikeout rate is one of the strongest of his career but his 9.3% walk rate is easily the highest he’s ever had.

It’s possible there’s some bad luck in here, with his 62% strand rate being on the low side and leading to a 4.05 FIP and 3.87 SIERA. Manaea got a decent guarantee coming off a weak season and could perhaps find a similar deal if he opted out, but there might be more hesitancy from clubs after a second straight underwhelming campaign.

• Eduardo Rodriguez (31), can opt out of three years and $49MM remaining on contract

Rodriguez parlayed his years of rotation work in Boston into a five-year, $77MM deal with the Tigers. His first season in Detroit didn’t go especially well, as he missed time both due to injury and personal issues. He made 17 starts with a 4.05 ERA as his 27.4% strikeout rate from 2021 dropped all the way to 18.4%. His looming opt-out after 2023 didn’t even seem to be worth considering but he has flipped the script this year. He’s taken the ball 24 times and has a 3.57 ERA, pushing his strikeout rate back up to 23.5%.

E-Rod is still young and effective enough that he should be able to easily top the $49MM left on his deal, especially since he’s already received a qualifying offer and won’t be eligible for another one this time around. What perhaps complicates the situation is that he used his limited no-trade clause to block a deadline deal to the Dodgers and later explained that he was “thinking about my future and my family.” His agent added that the southpaw’s family are “comfortable living in the Detroit area and have adjusted well.”

Would those same reasons lead to him declining the opt-out, even if it makes financial sense to do so? “If I had a magic ball and I could tell you what was going to happen in the future, I’d probably tell you right away,” he said a couple of months ago. “But right now I’m here, I’m with this organization. I’m signed here for a long time. I feel happy with everything. My family feels happy in Detroit. I feel happy with the teammates and everything, the organization. I’d really love to stay here, and that’s why I made that decision.”

• Drew Smyly (35), can opt-out of deal with $8.5MM salary for 2024 and $10MM mutual option for 2025 with $2.5MM buyout

Smyly’s career has been up-and-down but he had a strong 2022 with the Cubs, posting a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 innings. The club liked him enough to bring him back via a two-year, $19MM guarantee but he hasn’t been able to come close to last year’s results. He had a 5.40 ERA as a starter and got moved to the bullpen, where his 3.04 ERA as a reliever has improved his season-long line somewhat. He has a combined ERA of 4.99 over his 137 innings, with his walk, ground ball and home run rates all going in the wrong direction.

Combining the 2024 salary and buyout on the mutual option, Smyly essentially has to decide whether or not he wants to walk away from $11MM in order to return to free agency. Based on his struggles this year, it seems more likely that he stays.

• Ross Stripling (34), $12.5MM player option with no buyout

Stripling had typically been limited to a swing role with the Dodgers and Blue Jays, which was often due to strong rosters more than anything about Stripling specifically. He had a well-timed breakout with the Jays last year, tossing 134 1/3 innings with a 3.01 ERA. That allowed him to secure the same contract as Manaea, a $25MM guarantee over two years with an opt-out halfway through.

But his first year in San Francisco hasn’t gone well. He’s missed time due to injury and has an ERA of 5.40 in his 81 2/3 innings. He candidly admitted earlier this month that he “hasn’t pitched well enough to opt out” and seems destined for another year as a Giant.

• Marcus Stroman (33), $21MM player option with no buyout

A few months ago, Stroman seemed to be making this decision very easy on himself. Through his start on June 20, he had an ERA of 2.28 on the year. Based on those strong results and his career track record, topping $21MM on the open market would have been a slam dunk, especially since he’s already received a qualifying offer and is ineligible for another.

But the picture has changed since then. His next seven starts resulted in 30 earned runs in 30 innings, bumping his ERA all the way up to 3.85. He was then diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture in mid-August, which sent him to the injured list for more than a month. With the season winding down and the Cubs in a tight playoff race, he was recently activated from the injured list to work out of the bullpen instead of going on a rehab assignment.

Assuming Stroman is healthy, he should still be able to beat that $21MM in free agency, but the opt-out decision isn’t quite as obvious as it was in the peak of the summer.

Players With Club Options

• Alex Cobb (36), $10MM club option with $2MM buyout

Cobb signed a two-year deal with the Giants after 2021 and has been giving them some of the best seasons of his career. He posted a 3.73 ERA last year and is at 3.87 here in 2023. Between the two campaigns, he’s struck out 22.1% of hitters, walked just 6.3% and kept 59.4% of balls in play on the ground.

Cobb was placed on the IL this week due to a hip impingement. As long as that’s a minor issue, it seems like a lock that the Giants will trigger their net $8MM decision and bring him back for another year.

• Johnny Cueto (38), $10.5MM club option with $2.5MM buyout.

Cueto has a lengthy track record of effective pitching that goes all the way back to 2008, but he had some rough seasons lately. He got back on track in 2022 with 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox with a 3.35 ERA.

He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Marlins with an option for 2024. Unfortunately, the results haven’t been there this year, as Cueto has spent significant time on the IL and only tossed 47 innings with a 6.32 ERA. Given his ineffective season and the fact that the Marlins have lots of intriguing young pitching, it seems likely they will turn down this net $8MM decision.

• Kyle Hendricks (34), $16MM club option with $1.5MM buyout

Hendricks has been a reliable mainstay of the Cubs’ rotation for a decade now, but he hit some choppy waters of late. He had a career ERA of 3.12 through 2020 but saw that number jump up to 4.77 in 2021 and 4.80 in 2022. He was then diagnosed with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder in August of last year.

That shoulder issue kept him out of action until late May of this year but he seems to be healthy and back in good form. He has now made 23 starts this year with a 3.66 ERA. His 16.3% strikeout rate is definitely on the low side but his 4.3% walk rate is excellent and his 45.2% ground ball rate solid. Based on his bounceback season, it seems like there’s a decent chance the Cubs trigger their $14.5MM decision and bring him back, especially with Stroman’s likely opt-out and the struggles of pitchers like Jameson Taillon and Smyly.

• Corey Kluber (38), $11MM club option with no buyout

Kluber is a legend and has two Cy Youngs to prove it, but he hasn’t been at that level in a while. He hardly pitched over 2019 and 2020 due to injury, then signed with the Yanks for 2021. He was able to make 16 starts and post a decent 3.83 ERA, then signed with the Rays last year. He got his innings total up to 164, but with his ERA ticking up a bit to 4.34.

The Red Sox took a chance on him, giving him a one-year deal with a $10MM guarantee and club option for 2024. But it’s been a dismal year for Kluber, who was shelled in nine starts before being moved to the bullpen. He logged 55 innings with a 7.04 ERA before landing on the IL in June due to shoulder inflammation. He suffered a setback in July and was shut down from all baseball activities. He tried to begin a rehab assignment last week but was shut down and is done for the year.  The Sox will turn down this option and send Kluber back to free agency.

• Lance Lynn (37), $18MM club option with $1MM buyout.

Lynn has been an effective starter for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and been a mainstay in the big leagues since. But he’s grinding through the most challenging season of his career at the moment, going from the White Sox to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Between the two clubs, he had an ERA of 5.92 over his 30 starts, the worst rate of his career by more than a full run. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate are both solid, but he’s allowed an incredible 42 home runs on the year.

The net $17MM decision will be a difficult one for the Dodgers, as they will have to decide whether they believe more in the track record or the recent results. He has at least been better since the trade, with a 6.47 ERA before and a 4.67 ERA after, so perhaps they feel they have a plan for how to work with him next year. Another factor might be the general uncertainty in the Dodger rotation, with Kershaw and Urias set to depart via free agency and injury question marks around Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

• Nick Martinez (33), team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez had a solid season as a swingman with the Friars last year and was re-signed with a similar role in mind. He has tossed 101 1/3 innings this year over seven starts and 54 relief appearances. He has an ERA of 3.73 along with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 53.5% ground ball rate.

Although Martinez has generally done good work, $32MM over two years would be a high price to pay if they still considering him to be primarily a reliever. But they do have many questions in their rotation, with Snell set for free agency and Lugo and Wacha possibly following him. As of right now, only Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are locks for next year’s rotation. Perhaps the openings give the Padres enough motivation to consider Martinez for a starting role again.

• Charlie Morton (40), $20MM club option with no buyout

Morton’s late-career renaissance has continued this year, even though he’s approaching his 40th birthday. He has an ERA of 3.66 over 29 starts this year, striking out 25.6% of opponents while walking 11.4% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 43.3% clip.

He and Atlanta seem to have a good relationship, as he signed a one-year deal with them for 2021 and then twice signed one-year extensions to keep things going. The two sides could likely work something out for 2024, either that $20MM option or another price point, but the question is whether or not Morton wants to keep going. He recently spoke to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about his future, admitting that he still hasn’t decided about whether to come back or retire to spend more time with his family.

• Michael Wacha (32), team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha hung around in free agency until February, then signed a convoluted deal with the Padres. He’s making $7.5MM this year, after which the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two club options, essentially a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha can trigger a $6.5MM player option and will also have $6MM player options to decide on again in 2025 and 2026.

He’s having a solid year in 2023, having made 22 starts with a 3.44 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 35.8% ground ball rate. It’s debatable as to whether that performance merits a two-year, $32MM investment but the Padres have many question marks on their pitching staff. They are set to lose Snell to free agency, with Lugo and Martinez possibly following him out the door. That could perhaps incentivize to Padres to just take the proverbial bird in the hand by triggering Wacha’s option, a situation that Anthony Franco of MLBTR explored in depth this week.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter.

Over the past week, we’ve gone around the diamond with looks at the upcoming free agent class. We round out the offensive players with a look at the designated hitters.

It is obviously headlined by the two-way star who is likely to break the all-time contract record. There are a handful of accomplished veteran hitters below the market’s top free agent. Any position player can serve as the DH, of course. A number of players from the corner outfield or first base groups will see time there to give them respites from the field.

Since we’ve covered the bulk of those players in previous position previews, we’ll limit the scope of the DH class. This looks solely at players who have either tallied 200+ plate appearances as a designated hitter or taken 100+ trips to the dish while starting more games at DH than at any other position.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

• Shohei Ohtani (29)

Ohtani is the most fascinating free agent case in recent memory, perhaps ever. He’s a top five hitter, perhaps on his way to a second MVP award in three seasons thanks to a .304/.412/.654 batting line with an AL-leading 44 home runs. He’s a .277/.378/.585 hitter since the start of 2021. Of the 93 batters with 1500+ plate appearances in that time, Ohtani ranks eighth in on-base percentage and trails only Aaron Judge in slugging.

Judge’s $360MM contract with the Yankees stands as the largest free agent guarantee in league history. Ohtani seems likely to top it — potentially by a wide margin. He’s a slightly lesser offensive player but is more than a year younger than Judge was last offseason and, of course, has the potential to make an impact on the other side of the ball. Ohtani probably won’t pitch until 2025 after this week’s elbow surgery, but there’s no question he’ll try to get back on the mound once his elbow heals. While there’ll be some trepidation about his arm health after a second major procedure within the last five years, there’s a chance of him returning as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher in the second season of the contract.

Ohtani’s elbow injury isn’t expected to affect his availability for 2024 as a hitter. He’ll be a strict DH for the first season of the deal, an impact power presence in the middle of a lineup. By the ’25 campaign, he’ll again be the highest-upside player in the sport.

Everyday Options

• Mitch Garver (33)

Garver has mashed his way from backup catcher in Texas to primary DH. The right-handed hitter has connected on 18 home runs and owns a .268/.370/.513 slash across 309 plate appearances. Bruce Bochy has penciled him in as the DH on 47 occasions compared to 27 starts behind the dish.

This isn’t out of nowhere. Garver popped 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins back in 2019 and hit .256/.358/.517 over 68 contests two seasons ago. When healthy, he’s an excellent offensive player. Garver has had trouble staying on the field, spending some time on the injured list in five consecutive seasons. He lost most of last year to a flexor injury that required surgery and has impacted his ability to throw. At age 33, it’s fair to wonder whether he can hold up as a team’s No. 1 catcher. Yet in the role he’s playing for Texas — a primary DH who can take occasional starts behind the plate — he’s a strong contributor.

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (30)

Acquired from the Jays in the Gabriel Moreno/Daulton Varsho swap, Gurriel is batting .263/.313/.475 with 24 homers across 560 plate appearances. It’s a little below the .285/.329/.468 career mark he carried into the season, but it’s broadly in line with his overall track record. Gurriel makes a lot of contact and has 20-plus homer power while rarely taking walks to keep his on-base percentage around the league-average mark.

He’s a good but not elite offensive performer who is limited to left field or DH after moonlighting as an infielder early in his career. Unlike a number of players on this list, Gurriel can handle an everyday workload in the corner outfield. Public metrics are divided on his effectiveness — DRS rates him as an excellent left fielder, while Statcast pegs him a little below average — but he has topped 700 innings in each of the past three seasons. The D-Backs’ collection of plus defensive outfielders has allowed them to deploy Gurriel as a DH 49 times, easily a career high.

• J.D. Martinez (36)

Martinez signed with the Dodgers on a $10MM free agent contract. It was a surprisingly light sum coming off a .274/.341/.448 platform season with the Red Sox. Martinez indicated he took less money than he could’ve gotten elsewhere to join an excellent L.A. roster and reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc.

It’s hard to argue with the results. Martinez has popped 30 homers and owns a .271/.325/.570 line through 442 plate appearances. A career-worst 30.8% strikeout rate is somewhat alarming, though it’s tolerable so long as Martinez is making this kind of power impact. By measure of wRC+, this has been Martinez’s best offensive season since 2019. He should field multi-year offers this winter.

• Andrew McCutchen (37)

McCutchen returned to Pittsburgh last winter as a fan favorite and veteran presence for a young core. He’s still a quality on-field contributor as well, hitting .256/.378/.397 across 473 plate appearances. The Bucs kept him mostly at DH, starting him in right field on just seven occasions. While McCutchen doesn’t have the same power he did at his peak, he still has impeccable plate discipline and serves as a consistent on-base presence in the middle of the order.

It’s highly likely Cutch will be back in the Steel City in 2024. He expressed a desire to finish his career with the Pirates when he signed there last winter. The team never seemed to consider trading him despite being out of contention at the deadline. McCutchen’s return season was cut short by a partial tear in his left Achilles. General manager Ben Cherington told reporters last week that the sides will reengage on talks about a new contract once the offseason begins.

Platoon Possibilities

• Brandon Belt (36)

Belt inked a $9.3MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays last offseason. He was coming off a middling season in his final year as a Giant that had been plagued by knee issues that required surgical repair. The Jays rolled the dice on a rebound and have been rewarded with a strong performance from the 13-year veteran.

The lefty slugger is hitting .251/.369/.470 with 16 longballs through 382 trips to the plate. While he’s striking out at a career-worst 35.1% clip, he’s walking over 15% of the time and hitting the ball with authority. The Jays have barely given him looks against left-handed pitching. He’s a “three true outcomes” platoon bat who is still a middle-of-the-order presence against right-handed starters.

• Charlie Blackmon (37)

The Rockies and Blackmon have expressed mutual interest in a reunion. That seems the likeliest course of action, though the career-long Rockie indicated he wouldn’t be opposed to going elsewhere if Colorado didn’t bring him back. Blackmon is limited to DH or right field at this point.

He’s still an effective hitter, posting a .284/.372/.444 slash with seven home runs in 376 plate appearances. Blackmon still holds his own against left-handed pitching, so he’s not a prototypical platoon bat. Teams could shield him from southpaws as a means of keeping his workload in check, though. Blackmon won’t come close to the $15MM salary he made this season, but he should get a one-year deal for a 14th big league campaign.

• Joc Pederson (32)

Pederson returned to the Giants upon accepting a qualifying offer last winter. He has again been an above-average hitter, but his offense is well down from last year’s career showing. Pederson owns a .245/.353/.434 line with 15 homers through 400 trips to the plate. That includes 52 poor plate appearances versus lefties; he’s hitting .253/.356/.456 with a strong 12.4% walk rate when holding the platoon advantage.

He has never been a threat against left-handed pitching and he’s a well below-average defender when asked to man the corner outfield. It’s a limited profile, but Pederson is very good at the thing he’s asked to do most often: hitting right-handed pitching.

Depth Types

• Willie Calhoun (29)

Calhoun got into 44 games for the Yankees, hitting .239/.309/.403 across 149 trips to the plate. He elected free agency after clearing outright waivers last month.

• Ji Man Choi (33)

Choi was an above-average hitter for the Rays from 2019-22. He has had a difficult platform year, limited to 100 plate appearances by an Achilles injury, a ribcage strain and a Lisfranc injury in his right foot. Choi has hit .170/.250/.420 with a 32% strikeout rate in 33 contests divided between Pittsburgh and San Diego.

• Nelson Cruz (43)

The Padres took a $1MM flier on Cruz last winter, hoping that his down 2022 campaign could be attributable to an eye issue that required corrective vision surgery. The seven-time All-Star was released just before the All-Star Break after hitting .245/.283/.399 in 45 games. Cruz was an elite hitter into his 40s but has slumped to a .234/.300/.376 line in just under 900 plate appearances since being dealt from the Twins to the Rays at the ’21 trade deadline. He’d need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.

• Brad Miller (34)

Miller’s two-year free agent deal with Texas didn’t work out. He hit .212/.282/.324 overall, including a .214/.328/.339 slash in 27 contests this season. A left hamstring strain ended his regular season. He could technically return for a playoff run but probably wouldn’t crack the postseason roster regardless. Miller has been a productive bat-first utility option in the past, but he’s in minor league deal territory at this point.

• AJ Pollock (36)

Pollock’s offensive productivity has collapsed over the past two seasons. He still hit left-handed pitching well a season ago but didn’t produce against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pollock compiled a .165/.215/.318 line in 54 contests between the Mariners and Giants and was released by San Francisco three weeks ago.

• Jesse Winker (30)

Winker once looked like an elite platoon option, mashing right-handed pitching for the Reds over his first four-plus seasons. He has never been a good defender, though, and his power has evaporated over the last two years. Winker hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners in 2022 and has mustered only a .199/.320/.247 slash in 61 games for the Brewers this summer. He has been out since late July because of back spasms. Winker might still find a major league deal from a club hoping for a rebound, but he’ll hit free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Player Options

• Josh Bell (31)

Bell has a $16.5MM player option for next year. The switch-hitting first baseman/DH probably hasn’t found enough offensive consistency to pass on that sum. He’s hitting .242/.318/.413 with 21 homers in 583 trips to the plate between the Guardians and Marlins. Bell has been better for the Fish than he was with Cleveland — thanks largely to an August power barrage — but his production has dropped again this month.

He’s hitting .233/.282/.370 since the start of September. His ground-ball rate has skyrocketed to a lofty 55.6% clip. Bell has intermittently tapped into his massive raw power upside during his career. He just hasn’t consistently shown the ability to keep the ball off the ground for extended stretches.

• Matt Carpenter (38)

Carpenter is going to accept a $5.5MM player option for next season. He’s hitting .176/.322/.319 with five homers through 237 plate appearances and has had extended stretches without any game action for San Diego. The Padres hoped he’d replicate last year’s resurgent small-sample offensive showing with the Yankees. That hasn’t come to pass.

• Jorge Soler (32)

Soler has had a strong second season with the Marlins. After stumbling to a .207/.295/.400 line in the first season of a three-year free agent deal, he carries a .244/.336/.518 slash with 36 longballs through 550 plate appearances this year. He’s going to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact as a result.

A well below-average defensive outfielder, Soler has only gotten 233 2/3 innings of right field work this season. He’s miscast as an everyday outfielder and ideally suited for primary DH work. Soler has the ability to carry a lineup when he’s going well, combining strong walk rates with top-of-the-scale power potential. He’s a streaky hitter but has 40-plus homer pop, as he has shown this season.

• Justin Turner (39)

Nearing his 39th birthday, Turner has logged a career-high 93 starts at designated hitter. That’s partially attributable to the Red Sox having Triston Casas and Rafael Devers as their corner infield tandem, though it’s also fair to presume Turner might now spend the bulk of his time as a DH.

Turner hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down offensively, however. He has connected on 23 home runs in 596 trips to the plate, running a well above-average .280/.351/.467 batting line. His modest 16.8% strikeout rate is right where it sat over his final four seasons as a Dodger, while he’s walking at an average 8.6% clip. The bulk of his power impact has come against left-handed pitching this season, but Turner still owns a quality .278/.346/.449 mark versus right-handers since the beginning of 2022. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He should easily surpass the $6.7MM difference on the open market, making this a straightforward call to decline the option.

Note: Miguel Cabrera will technically become a free agent once the Tigers decline an option for 2024. He has been excluded from this list after announcing his impending retirement.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field