Boras Clients Who Signed After January In Previous Offseasons
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in three weeks but there is still a lot of offseason business to be completed. 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents still don’t have agreements in place for 2024, along with many players who weren’t on that list.
Of those 19, six of them are represented by the Boras Corporation. That includes the four top remaining names in Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman, as well as J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins. Boras also represents notable guys that missed the Top 50, such as Joey Gallo, James Paxton, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.
While most players and agents would prefer to get their offseason business done early, Boras has shown an unusual willingness to wait for the right deal, even if that means it doesn’t come together until very late. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we can look at all the free agent deals signed by Boras clients going back to October of 2010. Focusing on the ones signed after January ended, we can see if a picture emerges.
Quick sidenote, the cutoff date of the start of February is a simple one but also slightly arbitrary, as Boras has signed some notable deals towards the end of January. Prince Fielder got $214MM in late January 2012, Max Scherzer got $210MM from the Nationals in 2015 and Chris Davis got $161MM from the Orioles in 2016, though those latter two both had significant deferrals. But without further ado, let’s look at the track record of deals that follow the first month of the year.
March of 2023
- Jurickson Profar signs with the Rockies for one year and $7.8MM. MLBTR had predicted Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason.
February of 2023
- Elvis Andrus signs with the White Sox for one year and $3MM. He received an honorable mention on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
March of 2022
- The 2021-2022 offseason featured a large number of late signings due to the lockout. With transactions frozen from the start of December until mid-March, Boras had to quickly work out deals for Carlos Rodón, Yusei Kikuchi, Ian Kennedy, Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Correa and Zach Davies after the lockout ended. But that was at least partially due to the unusual circumstances and not necessarily about a waiting game played by Boras, so it’s probably not useful to look at those deals for this exercise.
March of 2021
- Jackie Bradley Jr. signs with the Brewers for two years and $24MM. MLBTR had predicted Bradley for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
February of 2021
- James Paxton signs with the Mariners for one year and $8.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Paxton for a one-year, $10MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Trevor Rosenthal signs with the Athletics for one year and $11MM. MLBTR had predicted Rosenthal for a two-year, $14MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Jake Arrieta signs with the Cubs for one year and $6MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
- Aaron Sanchez signs with the Giants for one year and $4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
February of 2020
- Taijuan Walker signs with the Mariners for one year and $2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
June of 2019
- Dallas Keuchel signs with the Braves for one year and $13MM. MLBTR had predicted Keuchel for a four-year, $82MM deal at the start of the offseason. He had rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.
March of 2019
- Bryce Harper signs with the Phillies for 13 years and $330MM. MLBTR had predicted Harper for a 14-year, $420MM deal at the start of the offseason.
February of 2019
- Marwin González signs with the Twins for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a four-year, $36MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Mike Moustakas signs with the Brewers for one year and $10MM. MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Brad Boxberger signs with the Royals for one year and $2.2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
- Jeremy Hellickson signs with the Nationals for one year and $1.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
March of 2018
- Greg Holland signs with the Cardinals for one year and $14MM. MLBTR had predicted Holland for a four-year, $50MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Jake Arrieta signs with the Phillies for three years and $75MM. MLBTR had predicted Arrieta for a four-year, $100MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Mike Moustakas signs with the Royals for one year and $6.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a five-year, $85MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Carlos González signs with the Rockies for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.
February of 2018
- J.D. Martinez signs with the Red Sox for five years and $110MM. MLBTR had predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Carlos Gómez signs with the Rays for one year and $4MM. MLBTR had predicted Gomez for a two-year, $22MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Eric Hosmer signs with the Padres for eight years and $144MM. MLBTR had predicted Hosmer for a six-year, $132MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Tony Watson signs with the Giants for three years and $9MM. MLBTR had predicted Watson for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.
February of 2017
- Matt Wieters signs with the Nationals for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Wieters for a three-year, $39MM deal at the start of the offseason.
- Jered Weaver signs with the Padres for one year and $3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
March of 2016
- Pedro Álvarez signs with the Orioles for one year and $5.8MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
- Austin Jackson signs with the White Sox for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.
February of 2015
- Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for two years and $13MM. Rodriguez was ranked 36th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
- Everth Cabrera signs with the Orioles for one year and $2.4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
June of 2014
- Kendrys Morales signs with the Twins for one year and $12MM. Morales was ranked 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.
May of 2014
- Stephen Drew signs with the Red Sox for one year and $10.1MM. Drew was ranked 14th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but re-signed with his previous club.
March of 2014
- Óliver Pérez signs with the Diamondbacks for two years and $4.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
February of 2014
- Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for one year and $3.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
- Jeff Baker signs with the Marlins for two years and $3.7MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
March of 2013
- Kyle Lohse signs with the Brewers for three years and $33MM. Lohse was ranked 10th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
February of 2013
- Michael Bourn signs with the Guardians for four years and $48MM. Bourn was ranked 3rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
February of 2012
- Edwin Jackson signs with the Nationals for one year and $11MM. Jackson was ranked 6th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
February of 2011
- Johnny Damon signs with the Rays for one year and $5.3MM. Damon was ranked 47th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
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A few caveats need to apply here for context. Many of these older deals were impacted by the previous qualifying offer system, wherein a signing club would have to forfeit a first-round draft pick and a player could receive multiple QOs in his career. This was changed going into the 2017 season, with players capped at one QO in their career and the draft pick forfeiture moved back, depending on a club’s revenue-sharing or competitive balance tax payor status. Since that time, the QO seems to have had less of an impact on free agents.
Even with those caveats in mind, the data doesn’t paint a rosy picture of playing the waiting game, at least relative to the expectations from the start of the offseason. Most guys on this list settled for a lesser contract than was predicted, either in terms of guarantee or AAV or both. Guys like Harper and Hosmer still got really strong contracts, but Harper’s was clearly below projections while Hosmer’s deal stretched the years to get a larger guarantee but less AAV. The results for guys like Keuchel, Holland and Moustakas (twice) came in well below expectations.
Perhaps the early-offseason offers were even lower for some of these guys and waiting it out was the smart play. It’s hard to know for sure without having details of those discussions, which don’t often come to light. But there aren’t many instances of a player waiting until close to the spring and then finding a really amazing deal. That’s likely due to the fact that many clubs have already spent most or all of their budget for the upcoming season by this part of the calendar, or at least they can posture as though that is the case for the purposes of leverage.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen in the weeks to come, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor for Boras clients as well as any other player. As mentioned, the top four remaining free agents are all Boras guys, but there are plenty of non-Boras guys still available as well. The 13 guys from the Top 50 that aren’t represented by the Boras Corporation are Jorge Soler, Mike Clevinger, Aroldis Chapman, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Justin Turner, Brandon Belt, Héctor Neris, Jakob Junis, Liam Hendriks and Tim Anderson.
Designated Hitter Possibilities For Diamondbacks
The defending National League champions were among the most aggressive teams early in the offseason. They acquired Eugenio Suárez to address third base and fortified the rotation via a four-year, $80MM contract with Eduardo Rodríguez. Just before Christmas, they reunited with left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM guarantee.
Arizona hasn’t made a major league addition since finalizing their new contract with Gurriel a month ago. They’re not done, however. GM Mike Hazen has said a few times the Snakes are looking for a hitter they can plug in at the DH spot. He reiterated that in a chat with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic not long after the new year, suggesting at the time they felt they were likelier to add another bat in free agency than through trade. While Arizona was focused primarily on right-handed hitters early in the winter, their deals with Suárez and Gurriel have balanced the lineup. Hazen indicated they’re considering DH options of either handedness at this point.
A few of their reported targets remain on the market. Some potential fits:
Right-Handed Free Agents
- J.D. Martinez: Martinez, who mashed in a two-month stint for Arizona at the end of the 2017 season, remains one of the more productive hitters in the majors. He’s coming off perhaps his best year since 2019. He blasted 33 home runs in only 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers a season ago. His .271/.321/.572 batting line was stellar and he turned in his highest hard contact rate (54.8%) of the Statcast era. The huge power production partially masks an uptick in whiffs, as he struck out at a career-high 31.1% clip. That’s a bit alarming, but teams would happily live with the strikeouts if they anticipate Martinez hitting for that kind of power again. Arizona was tied to Martinez, who did not receive a qualifying offer from L.A., in early December. The Blue Jays, Angels and Mets have also been tied to his market.
- Jorge Soler: Soler, 32 next month, drilled 36 homers for the Marlins a season ago. His .250/.341/.512 showing was a huge improvement on the .207/.295/.400 mark he turned in during his first year in Miami. Soler made the easy call to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact. The Marlins decided not to issue a QO and, according to the slugger, haven’t shown any interest in a reunion. While Soler is one of the sport’s streakiest hitters, he’s near the top of the league in raw power. He draws plenty of walks and trimmed his strikeouts to a managable 24.3% clip last season. Soler should find at least two guaranteed years and has an argument for a three-year pact. Arizona checked in on his market in early December. They’ve been joined by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mariners in that regard (although Seattle is probably out of the mix after signing Mitch Garver and reacquiring Mitch Haniger).
- Justin Turner: Arizona has been linked to Turner in consecutive offseasons. Even at 39, he continues to produce at the plate. He’s coming off a .276/.345/.455 showing with 23 longballs in 626 trips to the dish for the Red Sox. His is a balanced offensive profile. He walks at an average rate, makes a decent amount of hard contact and remains very difficult to strike out (17.6% strikeout percentage last year). Turner is no longer capable of playing every day at third base, but he can factor in at either corner infield spot while logging the bulk of his at-bats at DH. Toronto, the incumbent Red Sox, and Mets have also been linked to him this winter.
- Rhys Hoskins: Hoskins is the only player in this group to whom the D-Backs haven’t been connected. Perhaps he’s simply not interested in signing as a full-time designated hitter. With Christian Walker at first base, the Snakes would have to push Hoskins into a bat-only role on most days. If he’s open to that possibility, Hoskins makes sense as one of the more consistent offensive players still on the market. The longtime Phillie missed last year after tearing his ACL in Spring Training. Between 2019-22, he hit .240/.349/.479 in more than 2000 trips to the plate. Philadelphia did not issue him a qualifying offer.
Left-Handed Platoon Bats
- Brandon Belt: While Arizona hasn’t been tied to Belt this offseason, that’s true of essentially everyone. There haven’t been any public revelations on his market despite his strong 2023 season in a platoon capacity for the Blue Jays. The longtime Giant hit .254/.369/.490 with 19 homers through 404 plate appearances. That came almost entirely against right-handed pitching, but he’s still a productive three-true-outcomes hitter when he holds the platoon advantage.
- Joc Pederson: Last year wasn’t a great showing for Pederson, who hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers across 425 trips for the Giants. That’s not what San Francisco envisioned when extending him a near-$20MM qualifying offer last winter. Pederson won’t come close to that kind of salary this time around. Still, he’s only a year removed from a .274/.353/.521 line. Pederson continues to post hard contact rates near the top of the league and has five 20-homer seasons on his résumé.
Trade Possibilities
While Hazen indicated a free agent pursuit was likelier than a trade, they’re not going to close off the latter market entirely. If they don’t find an agreeable price point with any of their targets on the open market, there are a few speculative possibilities on the trade front.
- Eloy Jiménez: Jiménez is a right-handed hitter who has flashed 30-homer power upside. His career has been interrupted by frequent injuries, including extended absences in 2021 and ’22 (for a ruptured pectoral tendon and a hamstring tendon tear, respectively). Last year was only the second time in his career that he surpassed 100 games. It was also among his least productive seasons, as he hit .272/.317/.441 with 18 homers through 489 plate appearances. Jiménez will make $13MM next year and is guaranteed a $3MM buyout on the first of two club options for 2025-26. The Sox reportedly haven’t found much interest on the trade market as a result.
- Harold Ramírez: The Rays have floated Ramírez in trade discussions as a potential sell-high candidate. The 29-year-old had an impressive .313/.353/.460 showing last year. He’s up to a .306/.348/.432 slash in nearly 900 plate appearances since Tampa Bay acquired him on the eve of the 2022 season. That production is built around a batting average on balls in play above .350 as opposed to prototypical DH power. While that and an aggressive offensive approach could give some teams pause, he’s a high-contact righty hitter with gap power and the ability to take the ball to all fields. Ramírez is on track to go to an arbitration hearing with Tampa Bay to determine his 2024 salary. He filed at $4.3MM, while the team countered at $3.8MM. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more after that.
- Brent Rooker: Rooker, 29, turned in a career year for the A’s. Claimed off waivers from Kansas City last offseason, he popped 30 homers with a .246/.329/.488 showing in 526 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter posted excellent numbers against southpaws (.279/.354/.519) and acceptable production versus same-handed arms (.230/.316/.472). He struck out in nearly a third of his trips but tapped into the huge raw power that made him the 35th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Rooker is still a year from arbitration and under club control for four seasons. The A’s don’t have any urgency to trade him, but they probably wouldn’t consider him a core piece of their long-term rebuild given his age and defensive limitations.
Free Agent Profile: Michael Lorenzen
The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.
On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.
While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.
In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.
MLBTR Poll: Jordan Montgomery’s Market
It’s no secret that free agency has been unusually slow this winter. As we head into the final week of January, 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents remain unsigned, and that’s after a three-week period that saw nine players on the list (mostly from the middle tier of the rotation market and the upper level of the relief market) agree to deals.
While much of the mid-level market has begun to thin out at this point, the upper echelons of free agency remain surprisingly deep with the beginning of Spring Training less than a month away. That’s particularly true of the starting pitching side of things, where two of the offseason’s top four rotation arms remain unsigned. That includes left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a dominant season split between the Cardinals and Rangers during which he helped Texas bring home the first World Series championship in franchise history.
After struggling with injuries early in his career, Montgomery has settled in as a reliable #2 starter in recent years, with a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 94 starts over the past three seasons. While the left-hander’s peripheral numbers have stayed largely consistent over that time as his strikeout rate hovered around 22% against a walk rate that stayed in the realm of 6%, Montgomery’s results have improved in each of the past three seasons: his ERA dipped from 3.83, to 3.48, to 3.20 while his FIP dropped from 3.69, to 3.61, to this past season’s 3.56 figure. The southpaw further established himself as a playoff-caliber arm by helping to carry the Rangers’ rotation down the stretch while ace Max Scherzer battled injuries, posting a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts with the club over the season’s final two months before posting a strong 2.90 ERA during the playoffs.
As a clearly capable arm who can be slotted toward the front of a playoff caliber club’s rotation. Montgomery figured to be among the more coveted pitchers on the market this winter. That’s mostly proven to be true. While the southpaw has yet to sign, he’s garnered plenty of interest from teams throughout the winter with more than half a dozen clubs having been connected to his market over the past two months. Some of those clubs, such as the Mets, Cubs, and Cardinals, went in other directions as the winter progressed and no longer appear to be a fit for Montgomery’s services. Several others remain as plausible landing spots for the 31-year-old hurler, however.
Perhaps chief among those options is a reunion with the Rangers. The latest buzz on the rumor mill regarding Montgomery is that he prefers to return to Texas this winter, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently describing a reunion as the “most likely” conclusion to the southpaw’s free agency once all is said and done. Other potential suitors include the Giants and Angels, both of whom have been reported as interested in both Montgomery and Blake Snell in recent weeks. The Red Sox have also been connected to Montgomery in recent weeks, though the club’s payroll limitations likely mean they’d need to move salary to make room for an arm of Montgomery’s caliber.
While the Yankees also remain at least a nominal fit for Montgomery’s services, the club’s recent signing of Marcus Stroman could lessen their need for an impact rotation piece and they appeared more focused on Snell of the two remaining top starters even before signing Stroman. The Phillies have also been loosely connected to Montgomery this winter, though the club appears more likely to work around the edges of its roster at this point in the offseason rather than make a splash at the top of free agency.
Just as interesting as the question of where Montgomery will land is the question of what sort of contract he’ll command. MLBTR predicted Montgomery for a six-year, $150MM contract at the beginning of the offseason, identical to our prediction for right-hander Aaron Nola. Since then, however, Nola has gone on to return to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM deal. Reports have indicated that Montgomery is targeting a deal that would surpass Nola’s deal in terms of guaranteed money. It’s unclear, however, if teams value Montgomery more highly than Nola; while the lefty has been more consistent in recent years, he’s also six months older than Nola and can’t compare to the righty in terms of durability. Since Montgomery began his career in 2017, he’s made 141 trips to the mound, or two full seasons less than Nola’s 202 during that same timeframe.
So, how do MLBTR readers expect Montgomery’s market to play out? Where will the lefty land? Will he top Nola’s guarantee? Have your say in the polls below:
Where Will Jordan Montgomery Sign?
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Rangers 46% (7,444)
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Red Sox 9% (1,478)
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Cardinals 9% (1,451)
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Yankees 8% (1,219)
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Giants 7% (1,143)
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Cubs 6% (949)
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Angels 5% (840)
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Other (Specify In Comments) 4% (611)
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Mets 3% (516)
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Phillies 3% (458)
Total votes: 16,109
How Much Guaranteed Money Will Jordan Montgomery Land?
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Between $150MM and $172MM 47% (4,411)
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Less Than $150MM 44% (4,134)
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More Than $172MM 8% (784)
Total votes: 9,329
Each Team’s Local Broadcasting Arrangement
With many regional sports networks in precarious positions, a number of teams have imposed payroll constraints this offseason to compensate for the less certain revenue streams. It’s thus worth identifying where all 30 clubs sit in terms of their local broadcasting picture.
[Related: Latest On Diamond Sports Group Bankruptcy]
A caveat: teams don’t announce the terms of their broadcasting contracts. Many clubs’ revenues for 2023 haven’t been reported. Last March, Mike Ozanian and Justin Teitelbaum of Forbes listed approximate 2022 local broadcasting sums for every team other than the Blue Jays. In cases where MLBTR was unable to find reported figures for last year or the upcoming season, we’re referencing that Forbes report for ’22 revenues. Revenue figures cited are for local broadcasting contracts only.
- Angels: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. Expected ’23 revenues around $125MM (reported by Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times in February ’23).
- Astros: Formed joint venture with NBA’s Rockets to run Space City Home Network beginning in 2024. Previous RSN deal with AT&T SportsNet Southwest had paid $73MM in ’23 (reported by David Barron of the Houston Chronicle in November ’23).
- Athletics: RSN deal with NBC Sports California. Projected ’24 revenue: approximately $70MM (reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN in January ’24). Contract expires once A’s leave the Bay Area.
- Blue Jays: Owned by Rogers Communications, which distributes games via Sportsnet. All broadcast revenues unreported.
- Braves: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. Expected ’23 revenues north of $100MM (reported by Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in November ’21).
- Brewers: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $33MM
- Cardinals: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’24 revenue expected to be around $73MM (reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in January ’24)
- Cubs: Owners of Marquee Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $99MM
- Diamondbacks: No RSN contract. Previous deal, which had paid $68MM in 2022, dropped by Diamond Sports Group in June ’23. MLB handling in-market broadcasting in 2024.
- Dodgers: Co-owners of Spectrum SportsNet LA. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $196MM.
- Giants: RSN/partial ownership deal with NBC Sports Bay Area. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $92MM.
- Guardians: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group being renegotiated at a lower price. ’23 revenue: $55MM (reported by Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com in November ’23).
- Mariners: Assumed full ownership of ROOT Sports Northwest beginning in 2024. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $100MM.
- Marlins: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $49MM.
- Mets: RSN deal with SNY. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $88MM.
- Nationals: Co-owners of Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $61MM.*
- Orioles: Co-owners of Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $61MM.*
- Padres: No RSN contract. Previous deal, which had paid $47MM in 2022, dropped by Diamond Sports Group in May ’23. MLB handling in-market broadcasting in 2024.
- Phillies: RSN deal with NBC Sports Philadelphia. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $125MM.
- Pirates: Formed joint venture with NHL’s Penguins to operate SportsNet Pittsburgh beginning in 2024. Previous RSN deal with AT&T SportsNet paid roughly $50-60MM annually (reported by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in December ’23).
- Rangers: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group being renegotiated at a lower price. Deal has paid $111MM annually to this point (reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News in January ’24).
- Rays: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $56MM.
- Red Sox: Co-owners of New England Sports Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $97MM.
- Reds: RSN/partial ownership deal with Diamond Sports Group pays roughly $60MM annually (reported by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer in December ’23).
- Rockies: No RSN contract. Previous deal dropped by AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain after 2023. MLB expected to handle in-market broadcasting in 2024. Previous deal paid roughly $57MM in ’23 (reported by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post in January ’24).
- Royals: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $45MM.
- Tigers: RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group.’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $60MM.
- Twins: No current RSN contract. Previous deal with Diamond Sports Group, which expired after 2023 season, paid $54MM in ’23 (reported by Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune in January ’24). Twins could renegotiate new deal with Diamond.
- White Sox: RSN deal with NBC Sports Chicago. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $60MM.
- Yankees: Co-owners of YES Network. ’23 figure unreported; ’22 revenue: $143MM.
* The Orioles and Nationals jointly own MASN, with the Orioles holding a majority stake. The sides receive equal rights fees but have been embroiled in a longstanding legal dispute about revenue calculation, which happens every five years under the terms of their contract.
Free Agent Faceoff: Tim Anderson/Amed Rosario
Teams have been spoiled by the star-studded free agent classes of recent offseasons, particularly when it comes to shortstops. The past two winters have seen the likes of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa (twice), Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts hit the open market, giving teams in search of help at the position a plethora of All Stars to choose from. Teams in need of help at shortstop this winter have found themselves with slim pickings, however.
Just three players with recent experience at shortstop cracked MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents list this offseason, and the highest rated among them (Gio Urshela) played just nine games at the position in 2023 before suffering a groin injury that leaves questions about his ability to handle the position defensively entering his age-32 campaign. That leaves just two players at the top of the offseason’s thin shortstop market, and both come with major question marks: longtime White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, and former Mets, Guardians, and Dodgers infielder Amed Rosario. Both players had profiled as everyday regulars at the position entering the year but are coming off significant down seasons both at the plate and in the field.
Entering the 2023 season, Anderson was generally considered to be a top-10 shortstop in the majors. Over the previous four seasons, he had slashed an impressive .318/.347/.474 in 374 games while collecting two All Star appearances, a Silver Slugger award, and a seventh-place finish in AL MVP voting. His 123 wRC+ during that time frame ranked seventh among all shortstops in the majors, ahead of stars such as Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately, the 2023 campaign saw the 30-year-old struggle badly both at the plate and in the field. Anderson posted -2 Outs Above Average last year after posting a +5 figure over the preceding four seasons while slashing a putrid .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate. That performance translates to a wRC+ of 60, 40% worse than the league average hitter and the worst figure among all qualified major leaguers last year.
As for Rosario, the 28-year-old was once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport but struggled early in his career as a member of the Mets. He took a significant step forward during his age-23 season, however, and from 2019 to 2022 was more or less a league average regular at shortstop with a .282/.315/.412 slash line good for a 101 wRC+. While his defensive chops at shortstop were questionable, he nonetheless accumulated a respectable 7.3 fWAR during that time, good for 19th among shortstops across those four seasons. Just as Rosario’s peak was less extreme than Anderson’s, so too was his downfall in 2023. Rosario’s overall offensive production dipped only slightly last year as he slashed .263/.305/.378 (88 wRC+) in 545 trips to the plate. Much of Rosario’s regression this season came in the field, as he posted a whopping -14 Outs Above Average at shortstop in 2023, putting him in the first percentile among all major leaguers according to Statcast.
As worrisome as Anderson’s offensive woes and Rosario’s defensive struggles are, teams in need of a shortstop will be hard-pressed to find a better option available to them. While it seems there’s at least a decent chance that the Padres trade defensive stalwart Ha-Seong Kim this offseason, other top trade candidates capable of handling short such as Willy Adames of the Brewers appear unlikely to be moved at this point in the offseason. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of alternative options either. Looking beyond Urshela and his aforementioned defensive question marks, the list of available shortstops is made up primarily of aging veterans coming off down seasons like Brandon Crawford and Elvis Andrus and players who have struggled to stay on the field at all recently such as Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi.
Given the many question marks surrounding both players, rumors of interest have been relatively few and far between to this point in the offseason. The Angels were connected to Anderson back in November, and his presence could allow the club to give youngster Zach Neto more time in the minor leagues to develop after he was rushed to the majors last summer. As for Rosario, he’s been rumored as a potential target for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, though both clubs have added middle infielders since then in Vaughn Grissom and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, respectively.
As far as clubs who could be speculative fits for Anderson or Rosario this winter, the team that sticks out most as in need of a shortstop is the Marlins. Miami currently figures to utilize Jon Berti as their everyday shortstop despite him having started just 86 games at the position during his major league career, more than half of which came just last season. The Dodgers are also known to be on the lookout for an upgrade over their current tandem of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas at the position, while the Rays could use a shortstop given that Taylor Walls is still recovering from hip surgery while Wander Franco‘s future in MLB is in question due to alleged inappropriate relationships with minors. The Mariners, A’s, and Pirates are among other clubs who could potentially benefit from adding another bat to their middle infield mix.
If your team needed to added a shortstop to its middle infield mix this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Anderson’s stronger defense and more impressive peak, or Rosario’s youth and stronger overall numbers last season?
Which Shortstop Would You Rather Have In 2024?
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Tim Anderson 51% (2,508)
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Amed Rosario 49% (2,450)
Total votes: 4,958
The Phillies’ Next Steps
It’s been a quiet offseason in Philadelphia to this point — well, as quiet as is possible for a team that doled out a $172MM contract. The Phils struck early and decisively to keep longtime rotation anchor Aaron Nola on a new seven-year deal worth that sum, but it’s been largely silent since that time. Philadelphia made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, and the team is also said to have interest in extending Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency next winter.
Other than that, there’s been borderline silence out of Philadelphia. Even in terms of minor league free agency, the Phils have added hard-throwing righty Jose Ruiz and… that’s it. There’s obviously a good bit of offseason left to unfold, but for a team coming off consecutive NLCS berths and with clear World Series aspirations, it’s been a bit surprising. Their only signings beyond Nola and Ruiz have been low-cost deals to avoid arbitration with backup outfielder/first baseman Jake Cave ($1MM), swingman Dylan Covey ($850K) and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs ($850K).
That said, it’s clear that the Phillies aren’t yet finished with their offseason dealings. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said as much last week, telling Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his team is “not just satisfied” and is still working to improve. Where could the Phillies search for upgrades in an unusually quiet offseason by their standards? Let’s take a look:
Bullpen upgrades
The Phils have a need in the ‘pen after seeing Craig Kimbrel depart and piecing together much of the relief corps via minor league free agency a year ago. Dombrowski’s low-cost pickup of Jeff Hoffman proved to be a masterstroke, but bullpen-mate Andrew Bellatti‘s dismal 2023 campaign illustrates the perils of simply assuming that a breakout performance from a minor league free-agent pickup in the ‘pen will carry over to the following season. Hoffman was genuinely dominant for the Phils, but his track record is limited.
Rob Thomson’s bullpen figures to be anchored by Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Gregory Soto. Bellatti is still on hand, and the aforementioned Covey can provide long relief and serve as a spot starter. Dombrowski spoke highly of rookie Orion Kerkering when chatting with Lauber and even noted that he’s turned down trade offers for the promising 22-year-old.
The Inquirer’s Alex Coffey reported in December that making some kind of bullpen addition is in the Phillies’ plans. Jayson Stark of The Athletic suggested not long before that report that the Phils aren’t likely to pursue a pure closer, so don’t expect a Josh Hader splash at Citizens Bank Park. If the Phils are comfortable making a long-term move, they could look to righties Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson. But Dombrowski has erred toward short-term additions in recent offseasons, signing Matt Strahm (two years, $15MM), Kimbrel (one year, $10MM) and Corey Knebel (one year, $10MM). If he follows a similar path, names like Aroldis Chapman, Ryne Stanek and old friends Hector Neris and Michael Fulmer could be in play.
Right-handed outfielder
Stark wrote back in November that the Phillies were planning to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder to their corner outfield mix. That new addition could serve as a platoonmate for Brandon Marsh in left field or perhaps handle left field on a full-time basis if Marsh were to slide into a timeshare with Johan Rojas in center field. A handful of notable names have come off the board, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Hunter Renfroe and most recently Teoscar Hernandez. However, the Phils never seemed likely to play at the Gurriel/Hernandez level anyhow, given the presence of Marsh, Rojas, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber.
There’s no shortage of free agents who could fill a part-time corner role. Candidates for that type of job include Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk and switch-hitters Aaron Hicks, and Robbie Grossman. If the Phils are content to push Marsh and Rojas into a platoon to open the season, they could look to Adam Duvall or versatile Whit Merrifield to hold down a more regular role in left.
The bench, in general
A more speculative need here, but the Philadelphia bench doesn’t look like that of a repeat NLCS club with World Series aspirations. Stubbs hit .204/.274/.283 in 125 plate appearances last year — the polar opposite of a .264/.350/.462 slash he posted in a near-identical sample the preceding season. Cave hit just .212/.272/.348. Both have already been signed to the cheap 2024 deals I referenced earlier, but Stubbs has an option remaining and Cave would surely clear waivers and could be stashed in Triple-A as depth, should the Phils make a more substantial addition.
Pache and Edmundo Sosa represent a pair of strong defensive options for the outfield and infield, respectively, but neither has much of a bat (Pache’s solid 2023 showing in a tiny sample of 95 plate appearances notwithstanding). There’s some versatility here, with Pache being a plus defender at any outfield slot and Sosa capable at any of shortstop, second base and third base. But this is a weak group in terms of offensive potential, and a long-term injury to a regular would further expose that reality.
One possible scenario that could alter this mix would be to sign a full-time third baseman and push Alec Bohm into a reserve role. While the 27-year-old former No. 3 overall pick popped 20 home runs and finished third on the club with 97 runs plated, there’s some reason to be skeptical of his ability to continue that level of run production. Bohm has excellent bat-to-ball skills and roughly average power, but the overwhelming bulk of his damage was done against lefties. He torched southpaws at a .303/.335/.594 clip (142 wRC+) but was effectively a singles hitter against righties (.263/.324/.377, 92 wRC+). His career splits paint a similar picture: .314/.362/.530 against lefties but .262/.311/.358 against righties.
If Bohm were a plus or even average defender, that offensive profile would carry him just fine. However, Bohm has been dinged for -46 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average at third base in his career. He might be a better fit at first base, but that belongs to Bryce Harper now.
Bohm clearly has a big league-caliber bat, but it’s easy to argue that he’s best deployed in a more limited role, given the shaky glove and punchless output against right-handed opposition. He’s only in his first year of arbitration and projected to earn $4.4MM (hat tip to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), so he’s plenty affordable in that role. But as he inches through arbitration, the price could begin to outpace his value if he racks up counting stats in an everyday role and doesn’t make substantive gains against right-handed pitching.
The Bohm scenario, to reiterate, is speculative in nature and not something to which Dombrowski has publicly alluded. But the third base market has names like Justin Turner, Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela in free agency, while there are several teams (Reds, Twins, Cardinals, Orioles) who have some infield surpluses that could present trade possibilities. There’s no glaring hole in the lineup here — as one might expect from a back-to-back LCS participant — but a more specialized role for Bohm could improve the roster in multiple ways. Alternatively, the Phils could add a third baseman and see if Bohm could fill that right-handed-hitting void in left field. The defense might not be pretty, but that’s already true as it is at third base.
Rotation depth
One current hangup, at least as pertains to Dombrowski’s quest to add more rotation depth, is that free agents look at the Phillies’ roster and don’t see an opportunity for a guaranteed rotation spot with Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez all locked in. Dombrowski noted to Lauber that he’s hopeful of eventually adding some veteran arms who’ll be willing to start the year in Triple-A and serve as rotation depth, but most pitchers of that ilk are still hoping for concrete spots with other teams who have more acute rotation needs.
The Phillies could very arguably benefit from signing an established veteran to a short-term (possibly one-year) pact and plugging him into the fifth spot in the rotation. However, Sanchez is out of minor league options, so he can’t simply be sent down to the minors. And, after he impressed with a 3.44 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and pristine 4% walk rate in 99 1/3 innings last year, he’s certainly earned a look. Dombrowski said as much earlier in the winter, noting in an appearance on MLB Network that if the club succeeded in re-signing Nola, the rotation would be “set” — largely because of a desire to take a full-season look at Sanchez after that impressive 2023 showing. That didn’t stop the Phillies from making an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he was viewed as something of an exception, given his age and upside.
The free-agent market should feature several recognizable names who’ll end up signing non-guaranteed deals. Predicting exactly who’ll be squeezed out of a big league deal requires some degree of guesswork, but rebound candidates like Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies, Jake Odorizzi, Brad Keller and Yonny Chirinos come to mind as plausible possibilities.
MLBTR Poll: Josh Hader’s Market
There’s no doubt Josh Hader is going to land the largest contract of any reliever this offseason. The more interesting question is whether he’ll establish a new high-water mark for bullpen arms.
Edwin Díaz became the first reliever to cross the nine-figure threshold. The right-hander re-signed with the Mets on a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. (Deferrals reduced the contract’s valuation for luxury tax purposes to a little above $93MM.) That set a clear target for Hader’s camp.
Andy Martino of SNY wrote last week that teams engaged with Hader believe he’s shooting for that record. It makes for an interesting comparison between the two pitchers. Díaz was a year younger than Hader is now. The former was going into his age-29 season, while the latter turns 30 not long after Opening Day.
Hader has been a little better from a run prevention perspective. In 388 2/3 career innings, he owns a 2.50 ERA. Díaz had a 2.93 mark over 399 1/3 frames entering free agency (which is still the case because he missed the 2023 season after injuring his knee celebrating a triumph in the World Baseball Classic). While Hader showed a willingness to work multiple innings early in his career, he made clear that he preferred to occupy a single-inning role in recent seasons. Their overall body of work is about the same, while their platform-year ERAs are quite similar.
Díaz allowed a 1.31 ERA over 62 innings in 2022; Hader surrendered 1.28 earned runs per nine through 56 1/3 frames a year ago. There’s very little difference between those two numbers, although Hader probably has the more impressive figure when placed in league context. The league average ERA for relievers jumped from 3.86 to 4.17, likely reflecting both a somewhat livelier ball and rule changes implemented over the 2022-23 offseason (i.e. shift limitations) designed to tilt the game more toward offense.
Of course, there’s far more to a pitcher’s performance than keeping runs off the board. That’s particularly true for relievers, whose numbers can be skewed greatly by one poor outing (or simply a subpar defense). Díaz is probably more dominant on a pitch-for-pitch basis. While Hader has the slight edge in career strikeout rate, his approximate 37% mark in each of the past two seasons are his lowest since his rookie year. That’s still an elite number, to be clear, but it’s well shy of the laughable 50.2% of hitters whom Díaz fanned in 2022.
Opponents swung through nearly a quarter of all pitches that Díaz threw in his platform year. Hader’s 15.6% swinging strike percentage from last season was “merely” excellent, the 18th-highest rate in MLB among pitchers with 50+ innings. Díaz’s mark not only led the majors in 2022, it was three percentage points clear of second-place Andrés Muñoz. Díaz also throws a bit harder. He averaged north of 99 MPH on his fastball and nearly 91 MPH on his slider. Hader’s 96 MPH fastball and 86 MPH slider are more conventional velocity figures, although they’ve each proven almost unhittable.
The Padres made Hader a qualifying offer. New York re-signed Díaz before the deadline to make the QO but surely would have done so if they hadn’t agreed to a long-term deal. The Mets knew that re-signing Díaz was waiving their ability to collect the draft compensation they’d have received if he departed, which was presumably factored into the contract price.
Unlike the Mets, San Diego seems content to take the compensatory pick. The Padres have cut payroll and suggested they’re not going to spend at the top of the market. There haven’t been many suitors to emerge publicly. The Orioles were linked to Hader early in the offseason. They signed Craig Kimbrel to a $13MM deal and now profile as a long shot for a top-of-the-market relief splash. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers have been mentioned as speculative fits but without firm ties. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested this morning the Mets weren’t likely to be in on Hader.
Hader is one of the three to five best relievers in the sport. His camp has surely received calls that have gone unreported. Yet it’s a little surprising there haven’t been more public revelations on his market.
How will things play out? Will Hader top Díaz and where will he end up?
Will Josh Hader Surpass A $102MM Guarantee?
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No. 59% (5,956)
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Yes. 41% (4,193)
Total votes: 10,149
Where Will Hader Sign?
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Dodgers 21% (2,568)
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Rangers 17% (2,143)
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Yankees 16% (1,980)
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Phillies 12% (1,559)
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Cubs 10% (1,212)
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Giants 7% (847)
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Blue Jays 5% (656)
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Other (specify in comments) 5% (587)
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Angels 4% (533)
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Orioles 3% (388)
Total votes: 12,473
Possible Left-Handed Power Targets For Nationals
The Nationals haven’t made many notable acquisitions this offseason. They signed middle reliever Dylan Floro and former top prospect Nick Senzel to affordable one-year pacts and plucked infielder Nasim Nuñez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft. It’s not all that surprising that a still-rebuilding Washington team coming off a 71-91 showing hasn’t been aggressive, but GM Mike Rizzo had suggested at the Winter Meetings the team was open to a multi-year free agent pickup “in the right situation” (link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com).
With all of $4.25MM in free agent spending committed to Floro and Senzel, there should still be financial room at Rizzo’s disposal. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll hand out any kind of significant deal, particularly with a lack of great options in the middle tiers of free agency. Yet it’d be a surprise if the Nationals were finished with their offseason activity. One area where some kind of addition seems likely: a left-handed bat.
Both the Talk Nats blog and MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato suggested in late December that Washington was looking to bring in left-handed power. The Nats’ best lefty or switch-hitting bats — CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Luis García and Jake Alu — all have middling pop. Only the Guardians had a lower ISO (slugging minus batting average) against right-handed pitching in 2023. Acquiring a lefty power source makes plenty of sense.
It’s hard to see Washington spending at the level it’d take to land Cody Bellinger. Even though he’s young enough to be a veteran cornerstone for a team that could more realistically seek to compete by 2025, the Nationals have a pair of top center field prospects in James Wood and Dylan Crews. They’re also still faced with the MASN rights uncertainty and on the hook for significant money to Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer’s deferrals in the short term. It’s probably not the right time for a top-of-the-market splash.
We’ll look a few tiers down. Where might that search lead Rizzo and company?
Free Agency
- Brandon Belt: Belt, even going into his age-36 season, should command the loftiest guarantee of the players in this group. He’s coming off a very strong offensive showing for the Blue Jays. He hit 19 homers and walked more than 15% of the time he stepped to the plate, leading to a .254/.369/.490 line through 404 plate appearances. Favorable matchups played a role in that strong rate production; Toronto limited him to 39 PA’s against left-handed pitching. Washington could deploy him similarly at designated hitter and/or first base, where only Joey Meneses (coming off a league average offensive showing) stands in the way.
- Joc Pederson: The Blue Jays are the only club publicly tied to Pederson this winter. He’s coming off a middling season in which he hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers through 425 plate appearances for the Giants. That’s not huge power production at first glance, but Pederson has five 20+ homer seasons on his résumé (four with at least 25 longballs). He made hard contact — an exit velocity of at least 95 MPH — on more than half his batted balls last season, a top 15 rate in the majors. Pederson is a limited player. He’s best served as a DH and is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. He still has life in the bat, though, even if last year’s results were underwhelming.
- Eddie Rosario: There hasn’t been any public chatter on Rosario since the Braves declined a $9MM option at the start of the offseason. He should command a one-year deal at a salary that’s not too far below that rate. Rosario is coming off a reasonably effective year. He hit 21 homers with a .255/.305/.450 line in 516 trips to the plate. That was the fourth time in his career that he surpassed 20 longballs. Rosario is mostly limited to left field but rated reasonably well with the glove last year. His performance varies wildly within seasons, but he tends to produce roughly league average numbers by the end.
- Joey Gallo: Gallo hit 21 homers in just 332 plate appearances a season ago. The flaw in his game, huge swing-and-miss rates, has only magnified in recent seasons. Gallo hasn’t hit above the Mendoza line since 2019. He’s hitting .168 with a .290 on-base percentage in 742 plate appearances over the last two campaigns. There are a lot of uncompetitive at-bats. Few players fit the profile of a “left-handed power bat” quite like Gallo, though.
Trade Possibilities
It’s tougher to identify great fits on the trade market in the absence of many clear rebuilding teams. The Nationals could theoretically take a bigger swing at a player with an extended control window (e.g. Alec Burleson, Jesús Sánchez). That’s not an easy task to pull off, particularly since Washington is probably reluctant to part with significant prospect talent. There are a few veteran bats who’d make some sense as speculative trade candidates for a lesser return.
- Josh Bell: Bell had a productive stint over his year and a half in Washington from 2021-22. He hit .278/.363/.483 in just over 1000 plate appearances before being included in the Juan Soto trade. Bell has changed uniforms twice more since that deadline blockbuster, signing with the Guardians before being flipped to the Marlins last summer. The switch-hitting first baseman struggled in Cleveland (.233/.318/.383) but generally turned things around in South Florida (.270/.338/.480). That reasonably strong finish wasn’t enough for Bell to forego a $16.5MM player option for the upcoming season. It stands to reason the Fish would be happy to get out from under the bulk of that deal if the Nationals were interested in a reunion.
- Seth Brown: A’s GM David Forst indicated at the beginning of the offseason that he didn’t expect to trade Brown. That’s presumably more about Oakland feeling that other teams won’t meet their ask than an indication they wouldn’t consider offers on a 31-year-old platoon player. Brown is a career .237/.305/.471 hitter against right-handed pitching. He can play first base or the corner outfield and is under arbitration control for three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts him for a $2.4MM salary.
- Mike Yastrzemski: Yastrzemski is projected for a $7.3MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration season. He hit 15 homers in 381 plate appearances a year ago, running a .233/.330/.445 line overall. The Giants aren’t likely to urgently shop Yastrzemski, but the singing of Jung Hoo Lee pushes him from center field to the corner opposite Michael Conforto. Trading Mitch Haniger paved the way for a Lee, Conforto, Yastrzemski outfield supplemented by righty-hitting Austin Slater, but the Giants also have Luis Matos, Wade Meckler and Heliot Ramos as options on the grass.
Minor League Deal Candidates
Each of these players has turned in above-average offense from the left side in their careers. None hit free agency under great circumstances. Choi had an injury-plagued 2023 campaign that kept him to 39 games without much production. The other four players were either non-tendered or elected free agency after an outright.
Meadows has missed most of the past two seasons attending to anxiety; it is unclear if he’ll be in position to return next year. Ford and Vogelbach are largely limited to DH, while Walsh hasn’t been the same since he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in 2022. None of these players are likely to be Washington’s top acquisition, but they’d be viable depth targets if the Nats wanted a second lefty bat on a minor league or low-cost MLB pact.
Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore
The market for pure relievers has been deathly slow this winter. Since free agency opened in early November, just four full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, while both NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go recently agreed to deals with the Padres. While the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most recently) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as well, each of that trio has started games in the past and figures to have at least a chance of earning a rotation spot entering Spring Training.
There’s little question who the top dog available in free agency this offseason is in terms of relief pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been in the conversation for best reliever in baseball practically since his debut back in 2017 and is coming off an incredible platform season where he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of work while collecting 33 saves and striking out 36.8% of batters faced. Behind him, the best available bullpen arms largely appear to be right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the pros and cons of two of the winter’s best righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed relief market? With Hader in a league of his own, the next tier of southpaw free agent arms features two dominant back-end veterans in their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.
The two could hardly have had more different career paths leading them to this point. Chapman may be the most well-recognized reliever in the game today, as the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an incredible 2.25 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of work and racking up 305 saves across that ten-year span while pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. During that time, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph while maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, particularly at the time of his debut back in 2010.
Over time, however, signs of decline became evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching just 11 2/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, 2021 saw the flamethrower post a career-worst 3.99 FIP thanks to a 15.6% strikeout rate that was his highest since his first full season in the majors back in 2011. While Chapman managed to pitch through those red flags to rack up 30 saves and post a solid 3.36 ERA, the wheels came off more noticeably for the left-hander during 2022, his final season in New York. Chapman posted the worst average fastball velocity of his career that season, averaging “just” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated walk rate also continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate plummeted to just 26.9%, by far the worst of his career. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP were also career worsts, and his career with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout.
Chapman’s struggles left him to sign a modest one-year deal with the Royals in free agency last winter in hopes of recouping his value. The lefty did well for himself in that regard as his average fastball velocity climbed back up to 99.1 mph, the highest it had been since his age-29 season back in 2017. With the improved velocity came renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.09 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of work for the Royals and Rangers. While Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate will surely raise some eyebrows, if he can continue striking out batters at elite rates he should be able to pitch around the additional traffic on the basepaths.
Moore, by contrast, was once considered the very top prospect in all of baseball and in the early years of his career with the Rays appeared to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgery in 2014 got in the way of Moore’s ascension, however, and the left-hander was never the same pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation option for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers before heading to Japan during the 2020 campaign to try and revitalize his career overseas. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, though he had another difficult season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work.
That rough performance lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, but upon converting to relief full time the lefty quickly made his way not only into the big league bullpen, but into a late-inning role with the club. In 74 innings of work across 63 relief appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate paired with a strong 43.9% groundball rate. Despite that dominance, Moore’s long track record of struggles prior to the 2022 campaign, his elevated 12.5% walk rate, and a minuscule 4.2% home run rate on fly balls likely caused concern among potential suitors in free agency, leaving him to settle for a one-year deal with the Angels last winter.
Fortunately for Moore, his performance in 2023 largely backed up his newfound role as a quality back-end relief arm and answered those questions regarding sustainability. Though time on the injured list limited the left-hander to just 50 appearances last year, he posted a strong 2.56 ERA and saw his strikeout rate tick up to 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He found that success in spite of the fact that his groundball rate dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs last season.
Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Moore found this success while being shuffled between three teams late in the season. The Angels placed him on waivers in August, where he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time before he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push in the season’s final week. Taken together, Moore sports a sterling 2.20 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That ERA is good for ninth among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the past two seasons, ahead of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and just behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.
Relievers always come with risk involved, and that’s especially so for this pair of southpaws. Both players have had significant ups and downs over the past three seasons, and while each figures to fill the same late-inning bullpen role they vastly different pros and cons. Chapman has the name recognition and track record as a longtime closer, and is still capable of elite velocity as shown by his dominant performance in 2023. With that being said, 2022 showed just how far things can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% walk rate since the start of the 2021 campaign seems unlikely to go down much at this stage of his career.
By contrast, Moore is anything but a known commodity given his rollercoaster history as a former top prospect and longtime journeyman starting pitcher who has only recently broken out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman offers, having average 94 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, but has been among the very best relievers in baseball the past two seasons and has shown the ability to improve around the margins of his profile by cutting his walk rate nearly in half this past season. Also of note is that Moore, who will celebrate his 35th birthday in June, is nearly a year and a half younger than Chapman, who turns 36 next month.
Which southpaw would MLBTR readers rather have on their team in 2024? Do you feel Chapman’s lengthy track record and high-end velocity is too valuable to pass up, or do you prefer Moore’s recent dominance and stronger command?
Which Player Would You Rather Have For 2024?
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Matt Moore 58% (2,515)
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Aroldis Chapman 42% (1,812)
Total votes: 4,327