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MLBTR Originals

Spencer Torkelson Is Taking Off

By Darragh McDonald | September 19, 2023 at 10:18am CDT

The Tigers had a very concerning season in 2022. They had entered the year with their sights set on returning to contention. A young core of prospects had bubbled up to the majors and it was hoped that big free agent deals for players like Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez could supplement them. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong. All over the roster, players either underperformed or missed significant time or both. That applied to each of Báez and Rodriguez, as well as several of the younger guys.

One of those young players that had high hopes pinned on them was Spencer Torkelson. After the Tigers had a dismal 47-114 season in 2019, they secured the first overall pick in the 2020 draft and used it on Torkelson. Due to the pandemic, there were no minor leagues for him to play in that year but he nonetheless shot all the way up to #5 on Baseball America’s 2021 list of the top 100 prospects in the league. That was largely based on his tremendous performance in college. In 129 games for Arizona State, he had 54 home runs and a batting line of .337/.463/.729.

In 2021, the minor leagues were back and he shot through them. He began the year in High-A but was in Double-A by June and Triple-A by August. He hit 30 home runs in 121 games and drew walks in 14.5% of his plate appearances, showing both power and plate discipline. His combined batting line of .267/.383/.552 amounted to a wRC+ of 148.

The Tigers added him to their Opening Day roster in 2022 and it was hoped that he would be entrenched at first base for a long time to come. But he didn’t hit the ground running, or even crawling for that matter. He hit a paltry .197/.282/.295 through the middle of July, results poor enough to get him optioned down to the minors. That performance was especially concerning since his bat has long been considered his carrying tool. Without especially strong speed or defensive skills to give him a solid floor, he essentially needs to hit and clearly didn’t do that. The power potential was still in there if you looked, as his maximum exit velocity was considered to be in the 80th percentile at that time. But he wasn’t squaring it up often enough, with his hard hit rate in the 39th percentile and his barrel percentage 37th.

He played 35 Triple-A games that summer and produced around league average, before getting recalled to the big leagues when rosters expanded in September. He hit .219/.292/.385 down the stretch, which only amounted to a 94 wRC+, but was still better than the 68 wRC+ he had before his demotion.

As mentioned, the struggles of Torkelson were just one of the many things that went wrong for the club. They finished the season 66-96, nowhere near the contender status they envisioned. General manager Al Avila was fired along the way, with Scott Harris hired as president of baseball operations to replace him as they top baseball decision maker in Detroit.

Expectations were far different for 2023, both for the Tigers and Torkelson. Many had already written off the former first round pick as a bust, even though he was still just 23 years old at the start of the campaign. He didn’t do much to change those peoples’ mind in the early going of this year either, as he was hitting just .206/.266/.309 through the end of April.

But as the calendar flipped to May, more encouraging results came. From the start of that month through the end of July, he hit 13 home runs and produced a much more respectable .233/.317/.433 line for a wRC+ of 106. He has taken things to another level since the start of August, hitting 13 more home runs in his past 43 games. His slash in that time is .248/.342/.547 for a 141 wRC+. The Stork, which no one calls him but perhaps they should, has taken flight.

For the season as a whole, his batting line of .233/.315/.444 is only marginally above league average, translating to a 107 wRC+. But the Statcast data likes him a lot, with his average exit velocity in the 88th percentile, his barrel percentage 90th and his hard hit rate 93rd. His 24.7% strikeout rate is a bit above league average, but he’s also drawing walks at a strong 10.1% clip. Given that he’s gotten better as the season has gone along, perhaps he can carry that over into 2024 and have an even better year.

Although the Tigers surely would have loved for this breakout to have occurred last year, the silver lining of Torkelson’s struggles in 2022 is that it secured them an extra year of control of his services. Since he was optioned to Triple-A for about six weeks last year, he didn’t earn a full year of service time. That means he can be controlled through the 2028 season, whereas he would have been set for free agency after 2027 if he had stayed up all of last year.

As they move forward and try to build a competitive club in those years, they still have many challenges. There are still question marks on the roster, including the pitching staff and the middle infield. But their first base situation looks to be in good shape, especially compared to where it was just one year ago.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals Spencer Torkelson

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Big Hype Prospects: Langford, Manzardo, Mead, Jones, Basallo

By Brad Johnson | September 18, 2023 at 7:54pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we visit some notable players at various stages of their journey and highlight three more whose 2023 success could yield top prospect status next season.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(CPX/A+/AA) 174 PA, 10 HR, 9 SB, .359/.471/.697

The Rangers, thirsty to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016, have to be giving consideration to Langford. He received a promotion to Triple-A today for the final week of the minor league season. If that goes well, Langford could be the latest player to debut in his draft year. He’s earned the consideration. Of all minor leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances, Langford ranks second overall with a 202 wRC+. He has more walks than strikeouts along with a .338 isolated slugging percentage. He has 25 singles and 26 extra-base hits.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, CLE (AAA)
(AAA) 313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442

Seemingly on the cusp of reaching the Majors to start this season, Manzardo instead spent the year in Triple-A and on the injured list. A contact-oriented hitter with a hefty fly ball rate, his approach should play up at Progressive Field. It also yields predictably low BABIPs. Manzardo’s batted ball profile is that of a slugger, but he’s yet to turn that into on-field results. The peripherals are in place for a breakthrough 2024 campaign. The Guardians have an extremely left-handed lineup which could affect how the club plans to use Manzardo.

Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 52 PA, .267/.365/.356

Another Rays product whose 2022 performance outshined his 2023 follow-up, Mead is currently serving as a platoon bat. A slugger by reputation, Mead has yet to homer in his debut season. He also contributed only nine dingers in 278 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s struggled to make consistent contact as evidenced by his 84.0 mph average exit velocity. The only qualified hitter with a worse average EV is Esteury Ruiz. Likely, Mead will make the necessary adjustments to produce spicier balls in play. It’s not uncommon for prospects to make unexpectedly weak contact in their first exposure to the Majors. Mead’s long-term outlook depends upon him finding 30-homer power.

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (A)
131 PA, 2 HR, 6 SB, .252/.366/.351

This year, perhaps no prospect has lost more clout than Jones. A Top 10 prospect entering the season, he’s now at risk of falling off Top 50 lists. Injuries cost his entire 2022 season and most of 2023. Early in the season, he struggled mightily. The good news: there is a silver lining. Since returning to action on August 1, Jones is batting .274/.389/.400 with a tolerable 24.8 percent strikeout rate. His speed and double-plus outfield defense have been on display as well. While Jones has been leapfrogged by other worthy names, he appears to be back on a positive developmental track.

Samuel Basallo, 18, C, BAL (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 483 PA, 20 HR, 12 SB, .313/.402/.551

Basallo began the year as a young power-over-hit catcher with a questionable defensive reputation. He appeared to be half a decade away from a debut – if it ever came at all. He’s now played his way onto Top 100 lists as the latest Orioles breakout. Basallo is built like a first baseman, and it’s where I expect to see him long-term. I believe it’s telling the Orioles have opted to promote him based on the development of his bat rather than his glove. Most catchers meander through the minors as they hone their defensive chops. Concerns about his hit tool appear to be overstated. Given his raw power, he looks likely to make enough contact to float at first base. Fine adjustments might determine whether he’s Rowdy Tellez redux or a first-division starter. In the grand tradition of Carlos Delgado and Kyle Schwarber, Basallo might get some play at catcher before the Orioles bow to necessity.

Three More

Ricardo Cabrera, CIN (18): The latest intriguing shortstop in the Reds system, Cabrera recovered from a disappointing 2022 season by hitting .346/.475/.531 in 202 plate appearances split between the complex and Low-A. He’s already a Top 100 prospect candidate who should find himself in High-A next season.

Yordanny Monegro, BOS (20): The most exciting pitcher to pop in the Red Sox system this year, Monegro combines a number of traits that portend a big league future. He’s built like a starter, misses bats, and can move the ball around the zone. He finished the season in High-A after dominating Low-A where he was old for the level.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz was among the minor league leaders in home runs. His breakout campaign included 33 dingers, mostly at High-A. Not considered much of a prospect entering the season, he should now comfortably rank within the Top 200. He has a chance to reach the Top 100 with a fast start at Double-A in 2024.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Curtis Mead Druw Jones Kyle Manzardo Samuel Basallo Wyatt Langford

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Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Center Field

By Steve Adams | September 15, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

Throughout the week, we’ve covered the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. As Anthony Franco noted earlier today, we’ll now move to the outfield. You can check out that piece for a preview of the left field/right field options available this winter, but we’ll focus here on center field — one of the relatively well-stocked (emphasis on “relatively”) areas of the position player market this winter.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Everyday Options

  • Cody Bellinger (28)

Non-tendered by the Dodgers last year, Bellinger has enjoyed a hugely successful rebound with the Cubs. In 492 plate appearances, the former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player has posted a huge .316/.358/.545 batting line with 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a career-low 16.1% strikeout rate. He’s walking at the lowest rate of his career (6.5%) and chasing balls out of the strike zone far more than he did at his peak. However, he’s also sporting career-high contact rates on pitches off the plate (71.7%) and pitches within the strike zone (87.1%).

Bellinger missed about six weeks of the season with a knee injury, which might be the only thing that stops him from reestablishing himself as a 30-homer slugger. Were it not for that absence, he’d have had a legitimate chance to deliver a 30-30 season with above-average defense at multiple spots (center field, first base).

The 2021-22 seasons were nightmarish for Bellinger, though they came in the wake of 2020 shoulder surgery. Bellinger also suffered a fractured fibula early in the ’22 campaign that could well have impacted him at the plate even after his return. His quality of contact isn’t as impressive as it once was — Bellinger averaged 91.1 mph off the bat with a 45.6% hard-hit rate in 2019, compared to 87.9 mph and 31.7% in 2023 — but the results are hard to ignore. In a market with so few bats of note, Bellinger stands not only as one of the best but also as the youngest option available.

The Cubs will make Bellinger a qualifying offer, and he’ll reject it with little thought. They’ll be one of many teams angling to sign him this winter, but Bellinger and agent Scott Boras will probably try to see to it that whoever inks him does so to the tune of $200MM or more.

  • Harrison Bader (30)

Bader’s offense in 2023 certainly hasn’t been that of an everyday player. He’s batted just .237/.280/.356 on the year — the worst performance in any of his full seasons at the MLB level. Part of that is likely due to an uptick in fly balls and decrease in the percentage of those flies that have become home runs, but Bader has probably also had a bit of misfortune on balls in play; his .268 BABIP is 50 points lower than the career mark he carried into the year.

Even with some slight positive regression, it hasn’t been a good year at the plate. Bader has never walked much, and he’s doing so at just a 5% clip in 2023. He’s putting the ball in play more than ever before (career-low 17.5% strikeout rate), but he’s rarely doing so in an impactful manner (86 mph average exit velocity).

That said, Bader’s most valuable skills are still shining. He’s a lights-out center fielder — a legitimately elite defender who’s posted 6 Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 735 innings this season. He’s also pummeling left-handed pitching, hitting southpaws at a .317/.380/.610 clip this season. Bader’s above-average speed is on display more than ever before, too. His 19 steals are a career-best mark, and he’s only been caught three times.

Bader’s glove alone will earn him a multi-year deal, and he showed from 2018-21 that he has the potential to deliver at least average offense. In that four-year run with St. Louis, Bader hit .244/.325/.420 in 419 games. With a high floor and a ceiling in the four to five WAR range, Bader could surprise some onlookers with a strong multi-year deal this winter. That he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer only helps his case.

  • Kevin Kiermaier (34)

Speaking of preternatural outfield defenders, you’d never know by watching Kiermaier in the outfield that his 2022 season ended with hip surgery. The longstanding defensive wizard is back to vintage form and enjoying one of his best all-around seasons. The longtime Rays outfielder has logged 866 innings in center field in his first year with Toronto and racked up 16 Defensive Runs Saved and 11 Outs Above Average. He’s nowhere near his career-best 38 DRS (not a typo), but those 16 DRS rank eighth in the Majors at any position (one behind his outfield-mate Daulton Varsho in left field). His 11 OAA are tied for “only” 14th in the game.

Injuries tend to come with the territory for Kiermaier — in part due to the reckless abandon with which he plays his position — and the Jays have been good about affording him plenty of rest to keep him fresh. He also had a brief stay on the 10-day IL after a collision with the outfield wall required eight stitches in his elbow. He’s tallied just 361 plate appearances this year but turned in a nice .271/.331/.433 batting line with eight homers and 13 steals.

Kiermaier managed to land a one-year, $9MM deal in Toronto when he was coming off a notable surgery, and he’s now had a healthy and productive season. He’s not only reestablished himself among baseball’s premier defensive players, he’s turned in one of his best offensive campaigns, on a rate basis, and should be in position to command a multi-year deal. The Jays will face an interesting call on the qualifying offer. A one-year deal for Kiermaier worth around $20MM might well prove worthwhile, but the risk of injury is so substantial that they may opt not to roll those dice.

  • Michael A. Taylor (33)

Though he’s often been used in a part-time role, Taylor is enjoying a career year offensively in Minnesota, where he’s swatted a personal-best 20 homers in just 354 trips to the plate. He’s also added 14 doubles and swiped 13 bases in 14 tries. Granted, a career-low 5.9% walk rate and career-high 33.3% strikeout rate call into question how likely it is that he can sustain this type of output, but Taylor’s .229/.281/.456 slash is roughly average, by measure of wRC+ (99).

Moreover, even if a team doesn’t expect Taylor to replicate that offense, he’s a strong enough defender that there’s a case to trot him out to center field every day anyhow. In 891 innings this year, he’s posted positive marks in DRS (5) and OAA (9). Dating back to 2017, he’s posted respective marks of 68 and 52 in those categories, ranking as one of the best defensive players in MLB — regardless of position.

Taylor’s glove alone makes him a viable source of two to three WAR, and if he shows he’s able to sustain his 2023 power surge, he could find himself in an everyday role. He’ll have a chance at landing a multi-year deal this winter. He’s QO-eligible, but solid as his season has been, he won’t receive one.

Platoon Options

  • Adam Duvall (35)

He’s primarily been a corner outfielder in his career, but Duvall was signed to play center field in Boston and has done so for 448 innings during the 2023 season. That number would be higher had he not missed multiple months with a fractured wrist. Defensive metrics like DRS (-6) and OAA (-3) aren’t a fan of Duvall’s work in center, as one might expect for a 34-year-old who’s effectively playing out of position.

Duvall’s once-elite grades in the outfield corners have faded to average or slightly above in recent seasons, and the corners are probably where he’ll play the majority of the time with a new team. But he’s at least capable of handling part-time center field work, and his bat is his carrying tool anyhow. While Duvall has a penchant for low walk rates and bottom-of-the-barrel OBPs, there’s little doubting his power. He’s enjoying a nice rebound at the plate, hitting .254/.316/.543 with 19 home runs in only 310 plate appearances.

Duvall isn’t likely to sign as an everyday center fielder, but he can float through all three outfield slots and mix in time at designated hitter wherever he signs in 2024 — likely on a multi-year deal.

  • Joey Gallo (30)

Gallo got out to a blistering start after signing a one-year, $11MM deal with the Twins. They’ve stuck with him throughout the year, even though his bat went cold in May and has never really rebounded. Gallo is hitting just .177/.301/.440 on the season, but he’s delivered a dreary .159/.287/.365 slash in his past 275 plate appearances. The Twins would’ve had ample justification to move on at any point, but he could yet finish out the year on their roster. Gallo recently hit the 10-day IL with a foot injury and could return during the final couple weeks.

Since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees in 2021, Gallo carries a .166/.293/.396 batting line in 970 plate appearances. He’s smashed 53 home runs in that time — 21 this season — but also has fanned in 40.5% of his plate appearances. Someone with his power and walk rate will likely get a big league deal this winter, but it’s hard to imagine him being ticketed for an everyday role in center field, where he’s played just 46 innings this season (but has 463 innings of experience in his big league career).

  • Randal Grichuk (32)

Grichuk was enjoying a fine season in Colorado, slashing .308/.365/.496 at the time of a trade to the Angels. His bat has wilted since that swap, as he’s turned in a tepid .203/.253/.392 output in 154 plate appearances. Grichuk has 14 homers in 417 plate appearances overall. As is frequently the case, he’s played all three outfield spots but graded out below-average in center. Grichuk is best suited for corner work, where he has positive grades for his career. That’s particularly true in right field, where his strong throwing arm is best deployed.

Teams in need of help against left-handed pitching will surely be drawn to Grichuk’s massive .320/.386/.573 slash when holding the platoon advantage this year. He’s a lifetime .266/.314/.502 hitter in such situations as well. He’s gone unclaimed on waivers twice, but that’s likely due to a $9.333MM salary more than it is sheer disinterest in him. Grichuk makes for a fine bench bat who can be used in a larger role as injuries elsewhere on the roster might necessitate.

Infield/Outfield Hybrids

  • Enrique Hernandez (32)

Hernandez had a great first year in Boston after signing a two-year deal, tanked in 2022, was extended anyway, and has struggled for much of the 2023 season. Since a trade to the Dodgers, he’s rebounded to the tune of a .267/.329/.427 slash, but the offense has been suspect as a whole for the bulk of the past five years. That 2021 campaign stands out as Hernandez’s only above-average season at the plate since 2019. Over the past five seasons, he owns a collective .237/.306/.394 line.

Hernandez can go get it in center field, however — evidenced by 23 DRS and 17 OAA in just 2629 career innings at the position. He’s a viable defensive option around the outfield and at second base, although the Red Sox proved this year that he shouldn’t be entrusted with anything more than emergency duties at shortstop. Hernandez has generally hit lefties well and has enough defensive aptitude and versatility to command a big league deal.

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

Kiner-Falefa got his first career look in center field this year, and held his own, though the Yankees have used him at the position more sparingly as the season’s worn on (in part due to recent promotions of other players). “IKF” has previously drawn plus defensive marks at third base and left field, and he’ll now hit the free agent market as a light-hitting jack-of-all-trades who can be deployed in super utility fashion. He’s hitting .240/.307/.341 on the season, which is roughly in line with his career .261/.314/.346 batting line in 2397 plate appearances.

Fourth Outfielders and Depth Candidates

  • Adam Engel (32)

Engel posted eye-popping defensive marks in center during his first two big league seasons (2017-18) and hit well in a small sample from 2020-21. He’s still an above-average defender, though not to the same extent as he was at 25-26 years of age. He’s also a career .224/.279/.349 hitter who’s battled multiple injuries in recent seasons. His glove alone will get him interest on a minor league deal though.

  • Jake Marisnick (33)

It’s easy to overlook just how good Marisnick has been defensively in his career. Since his 2013 debut, he ranks eighth among all outfielders with 80 DRS and 12th with 53 OAA. That comes despite the fact that nearly everyone ahead of him on the list has hundreds, if not thousands more innings in the outfield. He’s a career .228/.281/.385 hitter in 2247 plate appearances, however, and the lack of offense typically relegates him to minor league deals and bench roles.

  • Kevin Pillar (35)

Pillar was a human highlight reel early in his career with the Blue Jays, but his defensive prowess has understandably waned as he’s aged into his mid-30s. The Braves have only given him 24 innings in center this year, primarily deploying him in left field. Pillar has never gotten on base at a high clip, and this year’s .236/.260/.422 slash is a bit more of an extreme development of his lifetime .258/.295/.409 batting line. He signed a minor league deal with a $3MM base this past offseason and could find similar interest this winter.

  • Raimel Tapia (30)

Tapia has good bat-to-ball skills and speed but is light on power, evidenced by a career .273/.317/.388 batting line. Much of his production at the big league level has come at Coors Field, and he was released twice in 2023 (Brewers, Red Sox) after posting a combined .230/.308/.338 line. Tapia has primarily played left field but has 469 innings of center field work in his career. He’ll probably sign another minor league deal this winter.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield.

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2023-24 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

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Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Corner Outfield

By Anthony Franco | September 15, 2023 at 11:58pm CDT

Throughout the week, we’ve covered the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. We move today to the outfield. Teams often use left and right fielders interchangeably, so we’ll combine them into a single corner outfield group. It’s not a great class but is arguably among the stronger options in a light market for position players. Everyone in the center field class could handle a corner, but we’ll cover them separately and look specifically at players who have logged substantial corner outfield reps this year.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

  • Teoscar Hernández (31); eligible for qualifying offer

Hernández entered the season as one of the top hitters in the entire free agent class. He looked likely to get nine figures if he posted another offensive showing near the .283/.333/.519 slash he managed during his final three seasons as a Blue Jay. His first season in Seattle has been a roller-coaster, but he’s doing his best to salvage things as the year draws to a close.

The righty-hitting slugger had a sub-.700 OPS in each of April, May and July. He was excellent in June and has been one of the best hitters on the planet since the start of August, hitting .344/.377/.591 in 167 plate appearances. The season line — .267/.312/.457 with 25 homers over 145 games — is more solid than elite, but he has looked like vintage Hernández over the last six weeks. He has also turned in decent defensive marks in just under 1100 right field innings, a welcome improvement over consistently below-average grades for his glove in Toronto.

By catching fire in the second half, Hernández has put himself back in consideration for a lofty multi-year pact. He has solidified himself as a likely qualifying offer recipient, which he should reject in search of a longer deal. His camp could take aim at the $100MM pact that Nick Castellanos landed from the Phillies two winters back.

Everyday Players

  • Michael Brantley (37)

Brantley has assumed the “professional hitter” moniker and continued to live up to it even into his mid-30s. He has been a well above-average offensive player whenever healthy, including a .288/.370/.416 line with more walks than strikeouts a year ago. His season was cut short by August shoulder surgery. The Astros brought him back on a $12MM contract in hopes he’d be ready not long after Opening Day.

Continued soreness intervened. Brantley didn’t make his season debut until the end of August. He has only appeared in 10 games thus far. Injuries are an ever-present concern at this stage of his career, but Brantley remains one of the best pure hitters in the upcoming free agent class. Any team that signs him will bake in plenty of rest days and likely rotate him between designated hitter and left field rather than counting on him for 100+ starts in the outfield.

  • Adam Duvall (35)

Duvall has been a corner outfielder for the bulk of his career, but the Red Sox pushed him to primary center field duty in 2023. Defensive metrics suggest he’s better suited for a corner — not especially surprising given his age — but he has hit well enough to earn a raise relative to this year’s $7MM salary.

The righty-swinging slugger has connected on 19 homers in only 310 plate appearances, with that workload limited by an early-season wrist fracture sustained when he dove for a ball. It’s the kind of production we’ve come to expect from the 10-year veteran: plus power to compensate for a propensity for strikeouts and a middling walk rate. Duvall has been an above-average hitter, as measured by wRC+, in four of the last five seasons. He has three 30-homer seasons to his name and could have gotten there this year were it not for the injury. His age will limit the length of offers on the table, but he’s having one of the better platform performances among the outfield class.

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (30)

Gurriel offers a broadly similar profile to Duvall: right-handed power with subpar on-base marks. He’s five years younger and makes a lot more contact, although he’s strictly a left field option. Acquired from the Jays in the Gabriel Moreno/Daulton Varsho swap, Gurriel is batting .258/.308/.470 with 23 homers in 536 plate appearances — numbers that are in line with the solid career track record he has compiled.

It has been a year of peaks and valleys, though. Gurriel was among the best hitters in the majors in May and owns a .290/.344/.536 line going back to the start of August. In between, he hit .174/.220/.331. It’s a volatile but generally effective offensive profile. The D-Backs probably wouldn’t risk the qualifying offer, but Gurriel could receive three or four years at $10MM+ annually.

  • Tommy Pham (36)

Pham is amidst his best season since 2019. The righty-hitting veteran has combined for a .267/.336/.474 line with 16 homers across 423 plate appearances between the Mets and Diamondbacks. His 9.2% walk rate is solid, if below his peak level, while he’s striking out at a league average 22.2% figure. Despite his age, Pham still rates as a capable defender in left field. He continues to post huge exit velocities, although that hard contact is often mitigated by a propensity to hit the ball on the ground. Pham is not an impact player, but he’s a well-rounded regular who can hit pitchers of either handedness well.

  • Hunter Renfroe (32)

Renfroe has been a solid but unexceptional performer for the bulk of his career. He hits for power and typically plays decent right field defense (although this year’s metrics aren’t good). He’s not viable in center field and runs subpar on-base marks. Renfroe has settled in as a second-division regular, bouncing from team to team but earning playing time wherever he lands.

He’s having a bit of a down year, with his 20 home runs in 538 plate appearances trending towards a career low in a full schedule. He owns a .235/.299/.421 line between the Angels and Reds overall. The strikeout and walk profile is in line with his career marks, but he’s lost a couple ticks of exit velocity.

Strong Side Platoon

  • Joey Gallo (30)

Gallo is athletic enough to handle any outfield position and the Twins have given him some reps at first base. He had a strong first couple weeks in the Twin Cities but has slumped since May and now carries a .177/.301/.440 line over 332 plate appearances. The sub-Mendoza average is nothing new, but this year’s 42.8% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s standards. He has hit 21 homers and walked at a huge 14.5% clip, leading to a roughly average wRC+ figure (103). That’s still not the bounceback the Minnesota front office envisioned when guaranteeing him $11MM last winter.

  • Jason Heyward (34)

After years of below-average offense for the Cubs, Heyward has found an offensive resurgence in Los Angeles. The Dodgers have almost completely shielded him from left-handed pitching, and he has responded with a .278/.357/.483 showing over 303 plate appearances versus righties. Heyward is walking at a 10.2% clip, has connected on 14 homers and is only striking out 16.5% of the time. He remains an excellent defender. Teams will have to weigh that against his age and years of underwhelming offense in Chicago, but he clearly earned himself another big league opportunity and might even find a two-year deal.

  • Joc Pederson (32)

The Giants surprisingly made Pederson a qualifying offer last winter; less surprisingly, he accepted. Pederson has still been an above-average hitter, but his offense is well down from last year’s career showing. He’s hitting .247/.359/.427 with 13 homers through 376 plate appearances. That includes 49 dismal plate appearances versus lefties, but he has a strong .261/.367/.464 line with a 12.8% walk rate when holding the platoon advantage. Pederson has never been a threat against left-handed pitching and he’s a well below-average defender. It’s a limited profile, but he’s very good at the thing he’s asked to do most often: hitting right-handed pitching.

  • David Peralta (36)

The Dodgers have shielded Peralta from left-handed pitching, keeping him to 32 plate appearances against southpaws. The 10-year veteran has a modest .259/.298/.391 showing in 320 trips to the dish against righties. Peralta has a better career track record in that role, but his power production has dropped off this year.

Situational/Role Players

  • Charlie Blackmon (37)

The Rockies and Blackmon have expressed mutual interest in a reunion. That seems the likeliest course of action, though the career-long Rockie indicated he wouldn’t be opposed to going elsewhere if Colorado didn’t bring him back. Blackmon is limited to right field or designated hitter at this stage of his career. He’s still an effective hitter, posting a .276/.368/.429 line with seven homers through 351 plate appearances. He won’t come close to the $15MM salary he made this season, but he should get a one-year deal for a 14th big league campaign.

  • Robbie Grossman (34)

Grossman is a switch-hitter who makes his living from the right side of the plate. He owns an excellent .303/.407/.488 batting line against left-handed pitching over the last three seasons. When facing a righty, he has has hit .199/.307/.334. The platoon splits have been even more drastic this year. Grossman’s ability to hit left-handed pitching makes him a solid role player, although he’s miscast in an everyday job. He signed with the Rangers for $2MM last winter and could earn a modest raise on that figure in 2024.

  • Aaron Hicks (34)

Over two years of below-average production culminated in Hicks’ release from the Yankees in May. The switch-hitter has found another gear since signing with the Orioles, hitting .287/.381/.461 over 53 games. That’s a glimpse of the hitter Hicks was at his peak, though he’s now a fringe defender and has landed on the injured list twice with Baltimore. While he’s probably a fourth outfielder on a contender, the 11-year veteran earned another guaranteed big league opportunity.

He won’t cost a signing team any more than the league minimum, as the Yankees remain on the hook for the rest of his consecutive $9.5MM salaries from 2024-25. Hicks’ camp will likely receive a number of offers at the $740K minimum rate, meaning he’ll make his decision based on clubs’ competitive outlooks and the playing time available.

  • Travis Jankowski (33)

Jankowski has been a quality fourth outfielder for the Rangers after an offseason minor league pact. He’s hitting .265/.352/.335 over 282 plate appearances. Jankowski has excellent strike zone awareness and works plenty of walks despite bottom-of-the-scale power. He’s a good baserunner (19-for-20 in stolen base attempts this season) and an above-average defender at any outfield spot. The complete dearth of power means he’ll always be limited to a situational job, but he’s potentially secured himself a big league contract this time around.

Infield/Outfield Hybrids

  • Brian Anderson (31)

Anderson bounces between third base and the corner outfield. He was a solid regular for the Marlins from 2018-20 but is hitting .230/.317/.361 in more than 1000 trips to the plate over the last three years. Anderson has played the ’23 campaign in Milwaukee after being non-tendered by the Marlins. He hasn’t produced much beyond a solid first month, posting a .224/.309/.364 slash with a career-worst 30.1% strikeout rate in 94 games.

  • Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández struggled at shortstop to begin the season. He has moved back into a utility capacity as a result, playing mostly second base and center field but logging some corner outfield action and occasional shortstop work. He’s amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season, hitting .236/.294/.353 over 469 plate appearances. Things have turned around since a midseason trade. After posting a .222/.279/.320 line in Boston, he owns a .267/.329/.427 slash through 146 plate appearances in L.A. He’ll likely land another guaranteed deal but seems hard-pressed to match the $10MM salary he received from the Red Sox last September.

  • Tony Kemp (32)

Kemp is a contact-hitting second base/left field option. He’s not a great defender at either spot, but he was a solid regular for the A’s from 2021-22 before a down ’23 campaign. The left-handed hitter owns a .211/.304/.311 line through 398 trips to the plate. That’s in large part a reflection of an unsustainably poor .222 average on balls in play. Kemp has strong plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills; he’s one of just two players (Luis Arraez being the other) with 300+ plate appearances and more walks than strikeouts. He could find a major league deal as a result.

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

After playing catcher, shortstop and third base in recent years, Kiner-Falefa has branched into the outfield for the Yankees in 2023. He has logged 267 1/3 innings in center field and slightly more between the two corner spots (mostly left field). Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews, though that’s probably to be expected given his lack of experience on the grass. No one will target Kiner-Falefa as a regular in the corner outfield. He’s not effective enough a hitter for that. He has broadened his versatility for a bench role, though. Kiner-Falefa puts the ball in play without much impact and runs below-average walk totals. He’s a contact-hitting utility option who owns a .253/.311/.332 mark since landing in New York.

  • Whit Merrifield (35)

Merrifield’s contract contains an $18MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. The Jays are very likely to decline their end, sending the veteran back to free agency. He’s one of the better players available in the second base class but also has plenty of corner outfield experience, where he’s roughly a league average defender. Merrifield is hitting .279/.321/.391 on the season, solid offense but a line that fits better at the keystone than at a bat-first outfield position.

Veteran Depth

  • Willie Calhoun (29)

Calhoun got into 44 games for the Yankees, hitting .239/.309/.403 across 149 trips to the plate. He elected free agency after clearing outright waivers last month.

  • Corey Dickerson (35)

Dickerson appeared in 50 games for the Nationals after signing a $2.25MM free agent deal. He put up a career-worst .250/.283/.354 line and was released in early August. Dickerson had been an average or better hitter for the bulk of his career but he’s in minor league deal territory at this stage.

  • Randal Grichuk (32)

Grichuk started the season well in Colorado. It fell apart after a deadline trade to the Angels, with whom he’s hitting .203/.253/.392 in 41 games. The Halos have put him on waivers at least twice; he went unclaimed both times. He should still find a major league deal based on his ability to cover all three outfield spots and hit left-handed pitching. The righty-swinging Grichuk owns a .291/.332/.538 slash against southpaws over the last three seasons. He’s a .240/.285/.389 hitter versus righties in that same period.

  • Wil Myers (33)

The Reds rolled the dice on a bounceback year from Myers last winter, guaranteeing him $7.5MM. It didn’t materialize, as the former All-Star hit .189/.257/.283 in 37 contests. Cincinnati released him in June as their wave of young talent hit the major league level. He didn’t sign elsewhere after that.

  • Kevin Pillar (35)

Pillar broke camp with the Braves after an offseason minor league deal. He has held his roster spot all year, hitting .236/.260/.422 with seven homers in 169 plate appearances. A formerly elite defender in center field, he’s more of a corner option at this stage of his career. Pillar still plays decent defense in a sheltered role and has some pop, but it’ll come with a well below-average OBP.

  • AJ Pollock (36)

Pollock’s offensive productivity has collapsed over the past two seasons. He still hit left-handed pitching well a season ago but didn’t produce against pitchers of either handedness in 2023. Pollock compiled a .165/.215/.318 line in 54 contests between the Mariners and Giants and was released by San Francisco two weeks ago.

  • Jurickson Profar (31)

Profar settled for a $10MM deal with the Rockies late in Spring Training after opting out of his contract with the Padres. His time in Colorado was a disaster, as the switch-hitter managed only a .236/.316/.364 line despite the confines of Coors Field. The Rockies released him at the end of August. Profar circled back to San Diego on a minor league deal and was quickly called to the MLB club. He could find another major league deal this offseason, but he’s coming off his worst season in five years.

  • Raimel Tapia (30)

Tapia is a contact and speed player who is best suited for left field. It’s an atypical profile that has led to diminishing playing time over the past couple seasons. He got into 59 games between the Red Sox and Brewers this year, hitting .230/.308/.338 between the clubs. Released by Milwaukee last month, he’s now in Triple-A with the Rays.

  • Jesse Winker (30)

Winker once looked like an elite platoon option, mashing right-handed pitching for the Reds over his first four-plus seasons. He has never been a good defender, though, and his power has evaporated over the last two years. Winker hit .219/.344/.344 for the Mariners in 2022 and has mustered only a .199/.320/.247 slash in 61 games for the Brewers this summer. He has been out since late July because of back spasms. Winker might still find a major league deal from a club hoping for a rebound, but he’ll hit free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Player Options

  • Michael Conforto (31)

Conforto has a borderline option case. By tallying 350 plate appearances, he vested the ability to decline an $18MM salary for next year in favor of free agency. He has returned from the shoulder injury that cost him all of last season but hasn’t found his peak offensive form. Conforto owns a .251/.343/.405 slash with 15 homers through 426 trips to the plate. That’s more in line with his slightly above-average work from his 2021 season (.232/.344/.384) than his All-Star form of 2017-20.

The left-handed hitter had started to find his stride coming out of the All-Star Break before suffering a left hamstring strain that sent him to the injured list on August 25. He’s expected back from that imminently, just in time for what the Giants hope will be a playoff run. This could go in either direction depending on how Conforto finishes the year.

  • Jorge Soler (32)

Soler’s opt-out decision is clear. He has a $12MM salary for next year, which would escalate to $13MM if he returns from an oblique strain in time to tally 18 more plate appearances during the regular season. In either case, it’s not likely to dissuade him from exploring the market.

After a down first season in Miami, the streaky slugger has performed at the middle-of-the-order level the front office had envisioned. Soler has popped 35 homers with a .240/.329/.513 line through 532 trips to the plate. He’s walking at a solid 10.9% clip and has cut his strikeout rate by five percentage points to a manageable 24.9%.

Soler is a well below-average defender. The Marlins have used him mostly at designated hitter, though he has picked up 233 2/3 right field innings. Any team that signs him is doing so for the bat, but he could find another three-year pact in a market without many clear offensive upgrades.

Club Options

  • Mark Canha (35)

The Brewers have an $11.5MM option on Canha that comes with a $2MM buyout. It’s a $9.5MM decision that figures to be borderline for a small-market Milwaukee club that has a penchant for taking the cautious route with regard to option decisions. It’s a reasonable sum in a vacuum, as Canha has performed well. He’s hitting .264/.360/.406 in 445 plate appearances, including a stellar .303/.394/.459 over 36 games since a deadline trade that sent from the Mets to the Brew Crew.

Even in his mid-30s, Canha is a good offensive player. He draws plenty of walks and has cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 16% this year. He doesn’t have prototypical power for a corner outfielder/first baseman, but he’s adept at getting on base. If Milwaukee decided not to commit the $9.5MM themselves, Canha could probably find something similar on the open market.

  • Max Kepler (31)

Minnesota holds a $10MM option that comes with a $1MM buyout. This appeared to be trending toward a buyout a few months ago, as Kepler was hitting .195/.273/.398 through the end of May. Since the calendar flipped to June, he’s mashing at a .274/.341/.516 clip to flip the script. The left-handed hitter owns a .251/.321/.482 line with 22 homers altogether. Suddenly, the $9MM difference between his option and the buyout looks like excellent value, especially since he continues to play strong right field defense.

The Twins have a number of left-handed hitting outfielders. Even if they were interested in subtracting Kepler from that surplus, they could do so by exercising the option and trading him. That or simply keeping him around for another season now seem likelier than the buyout.

  • Eddie Rosario (32)

Another borderline case, Atlanta holds a $9MM option without a buyout figure. One of the sport’s streakiest hitters, Rosario slumped to a career-worst .212/.259/.328 showing and underwent corrective vision surgery a season ago. He has rebounded in 2023, putting together a .267/.320/.479 clip with 21 longballs in 470 trips to the plate.

Rosario is striking out more than he did during his time with the Twins, though he’s also drawing a few more walks. He’s a power-over-hit left fielder who typically plays average defense. If the Braves are confident he’d replicate this year’s production, the $9MM price point is decent value.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop

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Ke’Bryan Hayes Lifting Baseballs, Self

By Darragh McDonald | September 15, 2023 at 1:37pm CDT

Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a useful player in his career, despite his offense.

Coming into 2023, he had hit just 18 home runs in 256 games. His 8.4% walk rate was close to average, but he wasn’t producing enough power to really be valuable at the plate. His .261/.326/.386 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 95, indicating he was 5% below league average offensively overall. Subtract his blazing hot 2020 debut and you’re left with a line of .249/.315/.356 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of just 86. But he stole 30 bases in the 2020-2022 stretch and got excellent defensive grades across the board. Despite the slightly subpar offense, he was worth 6.6 wins above replacement in that time.

Although he was still a solid contributor prior to this year, there were reasons to believe he was capable of more. Last year, his average exit velocity was in the 85th percentile among qualified hitters, per Statcast, with his hard hit rate 84th. The reason his raw skills weren’t translating into results was largely due to pounding the ball into the ground. Hayes had a 52% ground ball rate over 2020-2022, well beyond league average, which has usually been around 42 or 43% in recent seasons.

The Pirates clearly had faith that he could tap into something more, as they signed him to an eight-year, $70MM extension going into the 2022 campaign, the largest contract in franchise history at that time.

Here in 2023, Hayes has seemingly taken some steps forward with the ground ball issue. His grounder rate is down to 42.3%, which is just barely better than the 42.5% league average this year but almost a 10-point improvement over his previous work. Getting under the ball more has naturally led to improved power output. He already has 13 homers this year in 111 games, a far better pace than the 18 he hit in 256 games prior to 2023.

The results are even better if we focus just on the second half. Hayes went on the injured list twice this summer due to back issues. Since being activated on August 1, he’s taken 159 trips to the plate and is hitting .297/.342/.552 for a wRC+ of 133. He has a 40.2% ground ball rate in that time and eight of his 13 homers have been hit in that stretch as well.

That is a very small sample of less than two months, but it has to be incredibly encouraging for Hayes and the Pirates. They don’t spend a lot of money, which means that it’s important for them to get value out of the money that they do spend. Hayes has a solid floor with his speed and defense, but becoming an above-average hitter could make him into a superstar. His offense on the season as a whole is still just shy of league average, wRC+ of 98, but he’s been worth 2.7 fWAR thanks to the speed and defense. If he can maintain even a small amount of his recent offensive surge, he would push that even farther next year. He’s still just 26 years old and could still be tapping into his potential, with six more guaranteed years remaining on his deal, along with a club option for 2030.

The Pirates still have a tall hill to climb in order to return to contention. The Brewers are perennial contenders. The Reds are loaded with young talent. The Cubs are in strong position. The Cardinals are sure to be aggressive in moving past this down year. The Bucs still have plenty of questions about their middle infield and pitching staff, but they should be able to count on solid production from the hot corner for the rest of the decade, and maybe even more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Shortstop

By Anthony Franco | September 14, 2023 at 6:34pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

As we continue around the diamond, we’ll finish up the infield at its most demanding position. It’s an exceptionally thin group, a marked contrast to the star-studded classes of the last two offseasons. There have been eight nine-figure deals for shortstops since 2021 (not including the contract for Marcus Semien, who stayed at second base despite shortstop interest). Not only will no one in this year’s group approach that range, there aren’t many candidates for a multi-year contract of any sort.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

  • Amed Rosario (28)

Rosario has been a shortstop for the bulk of his career, but the Dodgers have played him more frequently at second base since adding him at the deadline. One of the youngest players in the entire free agent class, Rosario hits the market coming off a down year. He was a roughly league average hitter from 2021-22 but has slumped to a .259/.300/.374 line over 520 plate appearances. He’s hitting for more power in Los Angeles than he had with the Guardians — largely because the Dodgers have more selectively deployed him in favorable platoon situations — but has reached base at just a .278 clip with L.A.

The righty-swinging Rosario has performed well against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s a well below-average offensive player versus righties. Some teams may prefer to keep him in more of a short side platoon role, but the middle infield class is weak enough that he figures to land an everyday job somewhere.

That may be better suited at second base. Rosario has gotten serviceable grades from public defensive marks in a minute sample of 162 innings at the keystone. His much-longer track record at shortstop isn’t as rosy. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have pegged him as a below-average defender throughout his nearly 7000 career innings at the position. The numbers are particularly poor this year, as he’s rated anywhere between 10 and 16 runs below par by those metrics. His raw error count is 10th-highest at the position.

  • Gio Urshela (32)

It’s admittedly a stretch to consider Urshela a possible everyday player at shortstop. He’s soon to turn 32, has been a third baseman for the bulk of his career, and suffered a season-ending pelvis fracture in June. If he’s going to play regularly at any one spot next year, it’s likelier to be on the corner infield.

Urshela is one of the more well-rounded players among potential shortstop options, though. He has been an above-average hitter as recently as 2022, when he posted a .285/.338/.429 line for the Yankees. His power disappeared in his limited run with the Angels, but he hit .299 and got on base at a .329 clip in 62 games. He makes plenty of contact and typically hits for high enough averages to post solid on-base marks without drawing many walks. In a typical offseason, he probably wouldn’t be a viable shortstop target. Perhaps the scarcity of other options this winter makes that a more realistic possibility.

Utility Options

  • Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández got a shot as the Red Sox’ starting shortstop to begin the season. He’d never really had consistent run at the position before. The Sox gambled on Hernández’s plus defensive marks at other key positions translating, but the experiment didn’t work out. He’s tied for fourth with 14 errors at shortstop, and the three players with higher totals have nearly or more than double the innings. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average weren’t much kinder.

As a result, the Sox began to move Hernández back to his customary utility role — which has continued since a deadline trade to the Dodgers. He can still handle shortstop on occasion but seems better suited for second base or center field. He’s also amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season, hitting .236/.294/.353 over 469 plate appearances. Things have turned around since the trade. After posting a .222/.279/.320 line in Boston, he owns a .267/.329/.427 slash through 146 plate appearances in L.A. He’ll likely land another guaranteed deal but seems hard-pressed to match the $10MM salary he received from the Red Sox last September.

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

Kiner-Falefa has started just one game at shortstop for the Yankees this season, logging the rest of his at-bats over the three outfield positions and at the hot corner. He topped 1000 shortstop innings in both 2021 and ’22, though, drawing decent enough defensive grades that teams could consider moving him back there considering the shallowness of the class overall.

The righty-hitting Kiner-Falefa is a middling offensive player. He puts the ball in play without much impact and runs below-average walk totals. He’s a contact-hitting utility option who owns a .253/.312/.333 mark since landing in New York alongside Josh Donaldson shortly after the lockout.

  • Joey Wendle (34)

Wendle has bounced around the infield throughout his career, seeing the bulk of his time between second and third base. The Marlins pushed him up the defensive spectrum as part of their effort to improve the offense out of the infield. Wendle has logged a career-high 708 1/3 innings at the position, a rare gambit for a player in his age-33 season. Defensive metrics have rated him as a fine option, ranging from slightly below-par (-2 runs per Statcast) to a bit above average (+5 DRS).

While he has acquitted himself well enough with the glove, Wendle hasn’t hit at all. He owns a .222/.257/.323 line with just two homers over 299 trips to the plate. He’s hitting just .243/.279/.343 in 204 games since being dealt from the Rays to the Marlins over the 2021-22 offseason.

Rebound Fliers

  • Adalberto Mondesi (28)

It’s increasingly hard to envision Mondesi playing at all this season. He has encountered repeated setbacks since tearing the ACL in his left knee while playing for the Royals in April 2022. The former top prospect has shown elite speed and promising switch-hitting power potential at times, but injuries have kept him from topping 500+ MLB plate appearances in a season. He has only surpassed the 300-PA mark once. Even when healthy, Mondesi’s tantalizing physical tools have been undercut by an overaggressive approach that has led to a meager .280 career on-base percentage.

  • Paul DeJong (30)

DeJong had started the season reasonably well for the Cardinals, at least showing some power that had disappeared during his 2020-22 struggles. As the year has gone on, his production has plummeted. DeJong owned a .233/.297/.412 line at the deadline, when he was flipped from St. Louis to Toronto. He’s hitting .133/.132/.189 with 34 strikeouts and no walks in 91 plate appearances since then. He was released by the Jays within a few weeks and hasn’t fared better since catching on with the Giants. DeJong is still a good defender, but he owns a .200/.273/.351 slash in nearly 1200 plate appearances over the last four years.

Glove-First Veteran Depth

  • Nick Ahmed (34)

Ahmed was recently released by the Diamondbacks after a 10-year run in the desert. One of the sport’s best defenders at his peak, he secured two Gold Gloves and tallied double-digit home run totals in 2018-19. Ahmed has never been a good hitter, but he was sufficiently productive at the dish to serve as a fine bottom-of-the-lineup regular when paired with his elite glove. The offense has collapsed over the past three seasons, though, as he’s hitting .219/.272/.336 since the start of 2021. He lost most of last year to a shoulder injury that required surgery and posted a .212/.257/.303 slash before being let go this summer. Ahmed can still defend at a high level, but he’ll probably have to move into a utility role at this point of his career.

  • Elvis Andrus (35)

Andrus has gotten into 101 games for the White Sox this season. He’s hitting .254/.312/.353 with five longballs across 363 plate appearances. That’s more in line with the numbers he posted from 2018-21, making last year’s 17-homer showing look like a blip. Andrus is still a good baserunner and can play either middle infield spot, but he’s better suited for a utility role than regular playing time at this stage of his career.

  • Brandon Crawford (37)

Crawford is struggling through the worst season of his 13-year MLB career. The three-time All-Star owns a .199/.272/.316 slash with six homers over 299 trips to the plate. He is striking out at a personal-high 25.4% clip and has gone on the injured list three times — once each for a right calf, left knee and left arm issue. Public metrics are divided on how effective the four-time Gold Glove winner remains on the other side of the ball. Statcast still gives him a slightly positive grade, while Defensive Runs Saved pegs him as one of the worst shortstops in the league this year. Crawford had an unexpected resurgence two years ago to secure a fourth-place finish in NL MVP balloting at age 34. He hasn’t maintained that pace, hitting .218/.294/.333 going back to the start of 2022.

Minor League Depth

  • Ehire Adrianza (34)

Adrianza has been out since May with elbow and shoulder injuries. The switch-hitting utility infielder has gotten into only five games for the Braves this year. Adrianza is a glove-only depth option who has appeared in parts of 11 big league campaigns.

  • Johan Camargo (30)

Camargo played in eight games for the Giants, starting four at shortstop. He’s better suited for third or second base. A .219/.272/.344 hitter since the start of 2019, he has bounced around Triple-A for the bulk of 2023. Camargo hit .250/.335/.429 in the upper minors between three teams’ affiliates.

  • Chris Owings (32)

Owings got into 11 games for the Pirates, including seven starts at shortstop. It’s his 11th straight season logging some amount of MLB action. He has spent the majority of the year in Triple-A, putting up a .235/.341/.442 line with 14 homers in 80 contests.

Player Options

  • Javier Báez (31)

We don’t need to spend much time on this one. Báez has hit .229/.271/.356 in a little under 1100 plate appearances as a Tiger. He’s not opting out the final four years and $98MM remaining on his six-year free agent contract.

Club Options

  • Tim Anderson (31)

This will be one of the more interesting option decisions of the winter. The White Sox can keep Anderson around for $14MM or buy him out at $1MM, leaving them with a $13MM call. Six months ago, that seemed a rubber stamp. While Anderson was coming off an injury-plagued second half, he’d hit .301 and secured his second straight All-Star selection a season ago.

Yet in a season full of underwhelming performances for the White Sox, the extent of Anderson’s drop-off is still surprising. The former batting champ owns a .240/.284/.294 line and has managed just one home run in 475 plate appearances. It’s well off the .288/.316/.442 career mark he carried into the year. Anderson just turned 30 in June, so it’s hard to see this as age-related decline. Yet he’s hitting ground-balls at an enormous 62.5% rate and striking out at a 23.4% clip that’s his highest since 2018. Paired with defensive marks ranging anywhere from mediocre (-1 runs per Statcast) to disastrous (-16 DRS), it has been a sub-replacement level showing.

New GM Chris Getz now has a surprisingly tough call to make. If the Sox part with Anderson, he’d probably jump to the top of this class. Still, a $13MM decision is a not insignificant sum to wager on a rebound from an unexpectedly poor season.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base

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NPB Players To Watch: September

By Dai Takegami Podziewski | September 14, 2023 at 3:24pm CDT

The 2023 regular season is approaching its final stages in the NPB. Here’s the latest on the players we’ve been keeping track of at MLBTR. If you need a refresher on more specific player profiles, check out the first edition of the series.

Let’s get to it!

(Stats are as of September 13th)

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

Yamamoto continues to show us why he’s undoubtedly the best pitcher in NPB. The 25-year-old right-hander just tossed his second career no-hitter against the Chiba Lotte Marines this past weekend, in front of scouts/executives of 12 MLB ball clubs, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It feels like a long time ago when I wrote that Yamamoto was having a “slow” start to the season by his standards, with a 2.35 ERA in his first 38 ⅓ innings. Yamamoto has shifted into a different gear since May. Yamamoto hasn’t given up an earned run in six consecutive starts, since the beginning of August. He’s currently on a 42-inning streak without an earned run allowed.

In his 20 starts in 2023, the Orix Buffaloes ace has a 1.26 ERA, striking out 26.2% of hitters and walking just 4.3%, and a 1.86 FIP in 143 frames. That 1.26 ERA is good enough for the lowest ERA in NPB since Masahiro Tanaka’s 1.27 ERA in 2011. Yamamoto is once again on pace to claim the Pacific League pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins).

At age 25, Yamamoto is showing no signs of slowing down and continues to evolve. He notably tweaked his delivery last offseason to more of a slide-step style. Despite the “slow start”, it’s safe to say that the change has paid off, as Yamamoto has raised his average fastball velocity to 95.56 mph (152.9 km/h) compared to 94.9 mph (151.9 km/h) in 2022. In addition to his consistency, strikeout stuff, and ability to pitch deep into games, another development in Yamamoto’s game is his ability to keep the ball in the park. Yamamoto has allowed just two homers all season (he gave up between six and eight homers per season since his first full season as a starting pitcher in 2019).

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

It was reported last week that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars lefty will be posted this off-season, as many in Japan predicted last off-season. The 30-year-old southpaw had his best month in July but got roughed up in August with a 5.27 ERA. He had a bounce-back outing earlier today against the Chunichi Dragons, tossing eight innings of one-run ball and striking out eleven, with the sole run coming from a solo homer. His season numbers are still strong, with a 2.71 ERA, 29.96% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate in his 20 starts.

Although his ERA is not as good as 2022 (2.26), Imanaga’s strikeout rate at 29.9% is a career-best. The Baystars ace notably increased his average fastball velocity in the past few seasons. It now sits around 92.2mph (147.5 km/h), compared to 90.8 mph (145.3km/h) in 2021. While Imanaga’s arm is not overpowering, the combination of his command and strikeout stuff allows him to rack up strikeouts. 

3. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer for the Eagles continues to be one of the best relievers in NPB. Despite his young age and being converted to a starter on a few occasions during his career, Matsui is one of the most accomplished closers in the history of NPB. The southpaw became the ninth NPB pitcher in history to reach 200 career saves and was the youngest player to ever reach that mark. On the season, he has the second most saves in NPB with 33. He’s been nothing but reliable, with strong numbers to back it up; posting a 1.55 ERA, 33.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate in 49 appearances. 

Matsui officially earned his overseas free agent rights earlier in the year, giving him the ability to sign with an MLB team without going through the posting system. The Eagles southpaw still hasn’t made clear what his plans are beyond 2023. 

As I wrote in the first edition of the series, Matsui’s struggle to adapt to the WBC ball, which is closer to the MLB ball, may play a role in his MLB evaluation. If MLB offers aren’t enticing enough, he may very well choose to stay in NPB and attempt to break the NPB save record. 

4. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

Takahashi continues to prove that his career-best season in 2022 was not a fluke, posting a strong 2.31 ERA in 22 starts, the eighth highest among qualified starters in the entire NPB. He’s fanned hitters at an 18.8% rate and walking hitters at a 7.7% rate. 

The 27-year-old righty missed a few starts in August because of an illness. He struggled in the first two starts after his return, clearly still regaining his health and conditioning. He bounced back and tossed six shutout innings this past weekend, in front of MLB scouts. He continues to make improvements and his average fastball velocity has improved dramatically since he entered the league, which should make him more intriguing to MLB teams. 

Takahashi made his MLB aspirations clear last offseason, but it’s unclear if he’ll be posted by the Lions. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

Naoyuki Uwasawa has had himself another solid season for the Fighters, posting a 2.84 ERA, with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 158 ⅓ innings, the most innings pitched in all of NPB. 

Sports Hochi reported that scouts from the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs attended his September 2nd, so MLB teams are keeping tabs on the 29-year-old right-hander. Unfortunately, there may be a Kohei Arihara-sized cloud hanging over Uwasawa’s MLB dreams. Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure). 

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki was on pace for a historic season rivaling Yamamoto’s, before he was diagnosed with a left oblique muscle tear which sidelined him at the end of July. The 6-foot-4 hurler was expected to miss the remainder of the 2023 regular season, but made a surprisingly quick recovery and returned over the weekend. Sasaki was limited to three innings since he skipped a rehab start, but still showcased his lively arm, with his signature fastball sitting between 98mph and 100mph. The Marines will likely not overextend their star right-hander, so he will be carefully managed for the remainder of the season. 

On the season, Sasaki has a 1.53 ERA, an unbelievable 40% strikeout rate, a 4.8% walk rate and 88 innings in his 14 starts. There is no doubt about Sasaki’s talent and natural frame at 6’4″ and 203 pounds. The only thing Sasaki has left to “prove” is his durability, and showcasing that he can pitch multiple full seasons. There is plenty of time for him to prove that, since he’ll likely be posted in the 2026 offseason at the earliest, barring any surprise requests.

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Murakami has shrugged off most concerns and has re-established himself as one of the premier power hitters in NPB. Although he has had, by his standards, the statistically worst season since his rookie season in 2019, Murakami is still slashing a solid .253/.372/.497 with 28 homers, 77 RBIs, and a .869 OPS. 

Murakami did address his early season slump in an August interview, where he said he lost his way a little bit while training with the other Japanese stars in the lead-up to the WBC. He said that he got distracted trying to incorporate the training regimen of players like Shohei Ohtani, Masataka Yoshida, and Yu Darvish and did not address his swing as much as he should have. 

While he does have a great walk rate at 18.1%, Murakami is still striking out at an alarming 34.5% rate. He also struggles to hit righties, hitting just .209 against them. He still needs to make improvements with his defense at third base, as he has an NPB-worst 20 errors. This season is obviously far from Murakami’s best, but a down year may allow him to come back even stronger next season.

Murakami signed a three-year deal last offseason that came with a reported guarantee that he will be posted in the 2025-2026 offseason. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

Okamoto’s name came up in headlines last week, after it was reported that he was on the radar of several MLB teams. Okamoto is in the midst of a career-year, with a slash line of .293/.386/.611 with 90 RBIs and an NPB-leading 38 homers and .997 OPS. He has an 18.9% strikeout rate and a 12.2% walk rate. He was unstoppable in August, slashing .318/.422/.812, blasting 12 homers and driving in 25 runs. 

Okamoto has hinted at interest in a potential MLB move, but he isn’t set to be a free agent until the 2026-2027 offseason. The 6’1″, 220-pound slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. The Giants slugger has hit 30 homers for six consecutive seasons, which speaks to his durability and consistency.

The Giants are traditionally against the posting system. The only two players they allowed to be posted were Shun Yamaguchi and Tomoyuki Sugano, and both were unique situations. Yamaguchi was given permission because he made it a part of his free agency deal when signing for the Giants from the Baystars in 2016. Sugano was given special permission to enter the posting system, because he refused to join the Nippon Ham Fighters when he was originally drafted in 2011 and he held out for an entire season before being drafted by the Giants in 2012 (and his uncle is Giants manager Tatsunori Hara, which may have played a role).

As expected, the ball club has denied any conversations regarding Okamoto’s potential move, with executive Atsunori Otsuka saying “We’ve heard he has MLB aspirations, but we’ve never had direct discussion with him about that. We typically don’t accept posting, and want our players to earn their overseas rights. It was the same with Hideki Matsui.”

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. Other NPB top performers are also on the list.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Atsuki Taneichi, right-handed starter, Chiba Lotte Marines. Liván Moinelo, left-handed reliever, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Raidel Martinez, right-handed reliever, Chunichi Dragons. (Moinelo and Martinez will have to defect their homeland, Cuba, to join MLB)

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MLBTR Originals NPB To MLB Nippon Professional Baseball Kazuma Okamoto Kona Takahashi Munetaka Murakami Naoyuki Uwasawa Roki Sasaki Shota Imanaga Yoshinobu Yamamoto Yuki Matsui

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Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Third Base

By Steve Adams | September 13, 2023 at 6:20pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. We’ve already covered catcher, first base and second base so far. Onto third base!

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included for this exercise. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Everyday Players

  • Jeimer Candelario (30); ineligible for qualifying offer

Candelario has spent some time at first base since being traded from the Nationals to the Cubs, but he’s primarily been a third a baseman both this season and in his big league career. While he drew poor marks early in his MLB tenure with Detroit, he’s been only slightly below-average in 2023 by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, while Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating have him slightly above average. At the very least, Candelario can be considered a passable defender at the hot corner.

Teams won’t be chasing Candelario for his glove anyhow — he’s a bat-first player who’ll represent one of the top hitters on this offseason’s market. While he’s cooled a bit in recent weeks — just five hits in his past 52 at-bats — the switch-hitting corner infielder is still hitting .253/.338/.473 on the season. That’s 18% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, giving him three seasons of decidedly above-average work at the plate in the past four years. He’s batted .255/.326/.438 (111 wRC+) dating back to 2020 and has played at a three- to four-WAR pace in each of the 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons.

The 2022 season looks like an aberration rather than the beginning of any sort of decline, and Candelario will be viewed as a safe bet to turn in above-average offense at a thin position — and in a market where there are few above-average hitters available in general. He’d have been a QO candidate had he stuck with the Nats all year, but his midseason trade renders him ineligible. He’ll have a case for a four-year deal in free agency.

  • Matt Chapman (31); eligible for qualifying offer

Chapman’s brilliant start to the season has long since faded, as he proved unable to sustain the improved strikeout rate he sported through that torrid April performance. He was still an above-average hitter for much of the season thereafter, but he recently fell into a woeful slump and was placed on the injured list with a sprain in his right middle finger. Manager John Schneider revealed at the time of the IL placement that the third baseman had been attempting to play through it for weeks but aggravated the injury during an Aug. 27 at-bat. He’s been out since, his hand in a splint for much of that time.

The .248/.338/.431  batting line that Chapman has posted overall this season remains well above the league-average (13% better, by wRC+), but he’s been a ways shy of his MVP-caliber performance from 2018-19 for the past four years now. Perhaps not coincidentally, he underwent hip surgery back in 2020.

Chapman remains a sensational defender at third base, and paired with his above-average power and strong walk rates, he has a high floor. Even if his offense never returns to peak levels, he’s still been worth between 3.5 and 4.5 WAR in each of the past three seasons. That floor, plus the allure of Chapman’s elite hard-contact skills (despite not always turning into the desired results), should make him one of the most in-demand free agents on the market. Chapman is eligible for a qualifying offer, which he’ll likely receive and reject.

  • Gio Urshela (32); eligible for qualifying offer

That Urshela is eligible for a QO is largely a moot point; he played in just 62 games this year before a fracture in his pelvis ended his season. He won’t receive a qualifying offer, but his track record will still position him for a possible multi-year deal (depending on his recovery) in a thin market at the hot corner.

Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 in 228 plate appearances before sustaining that injury and is a .291/.335/.452 hitter dating back to his 2019 breakout with the Yankees. He doesn’t walk much, but Urshela also puts the ball in play at a strong rate (just an 18.9% strikeout rate in that five-year span) and has previously demonstrated 15- to 20-homer pop in addition to solid defensive skills. There will surely be some trepidation as to how those skills will hold up in the wake of an uncommon injury of this nature, but some teams might also view that as a method of securing Urshela’s talents at a lower-than-expected rate for the next couple seasons.

Multi-Position Veterans

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (29)

Two years in the Bronx haven’t gone especially well for Kiner-Falefa, who didn’t pan out as the everyday shortstop and stopgap to Anthony Volpe as well as the Yankees hoped. “IKF” has since moved into a utility role that seems to better suit him. He’s batted just .253/.312/.333 over 873 plate appearances with the Yankees. The ten home runs he’s popped underscore his lack of power, but Kiner-Falefa has also swiped 35 bags as a Yankee (in 44 tries) and proven to be a versatile defender. He’s added some outfield work to his resume and can bounce all over the infield. Defensive metrics like DRS and OAA agree that third base is his best position. Contending teams will see him as a bench piece, but it’s possible some rebuilding clubs or long-shot postseason teams will view him as an everyday option.

  • Donovan Solano (36)

Solano’s out-of-nowhere emergence as a quality big league hitter after signing a minor league deal with the Giants heading into his age-31 season remains remarkable. He’s not slowing down in 2023. The Twins inked him to a one-year, $2MM deal that’s proven to be a bargain, as he’s slashed .287/.372/.404 with five homers while playing first base, second base and third base. He should get a raise to fill a similar multi-positional role with a team in 2024. He’s played more first base (529 innings) and second base (102 innings) than third (82 innings) in Minnesota, but he’s still capable at all three spots.

  • Joey Wendle (34)

Wendle was seen as a premium defender with an above-average but underrated bat at the time of his trade from Tampa Bay to Miami. He’s largely lived up to that “premium defender” billing with the Marlins, but his left-handed bat has fallen off a cliff. In 668 plate appearances with Miami, Wendle is hitting just .244/.280/.345. He has elite defensive marks at second base and above-average marks at both left-side infield positions in his big league career and could still garner interest as a utilityman on a big league deal.

Part-Time/Platoon Veterans

  • Josh Donaldson (38)

The 2023 season has been a nightmare for Donaldson, who turned in a career-worst .142/.225/.434 line in 120 plate appearances before being released by the Yankees late last month. The Brewers signed Donaldson to a minor league deal, called him to the big leagues earlier this week, and have watched him go 3-for-6 with a homer and three walks. Ugly as the season has been, Donaldson has mashed four homers in 32 plate appearances against lefties. If he can show well down the stretch (and perhaps into the postseason) with the Brew Crew, he could attract Major League interest in free agency — albeit likely in a part-time role.

  • Evan Longoria (38)

A former American League Rookie of the Year and three-time All-Star, Longoria has been roughly average at the plate in 2023 during his first season with the D-backs. He’s hitting lefties at a solid .242/.318/.463 clip, however, and could hold appeal to a contending club as a part-time corner infielder and designated hitter. He’s quite clearly not the superlative defender and perennial MVP candidate he was early in his career, but Longo hits lefties and has popped 11 homers in 219 plate appearances while posting a .214 ISO (slugging minus batting average). He’s also averaging a massive 92.6 mph exit velocity and with a similarly gaudy 53.5% hard-hit rate. He’s sitting on a career-worst 32% strikeout rate, but when Longo makes contact — it’s typically loud.

Depth Candidates

  • Ehire Adrianza (34)

A shoulder injury has cost Adrianza most of the 2023 season. He’s taken just 11 turns at the dish with the Braves this year. The switch-hitting 34-year-old can play all over the infield, but he’s just a .209/.295/.310 hitter in 431 plate appearances dating back to 2020.

  • Hanser Alberto (31)

Alberto hit .220/.261/.390 in 90 plate appearances with the White Sox this year. His right-handed bat has never been able to handle right-handed pitching (.232/.257/.330), but he’s a career .324/.343/.455 hitter against lefties. He has generally positive defensive grades at multiple infield spots but made some glaring and costly miscues with the Sox prior to his June release.

  • Brian Anderson (31)

The former Marlins standout has been hobbled by injuries in recent seasons and was non-tendered by Miami last November. He signed a one-year pact with the Brewers and got out to a big start, but Anderson’s batting line is down to .224/.309/.364 after a slow summer at the plate and he’s striking out at a career-worst 30.1% rate.

  • Charlie Culberson (35)

Culberson made exactly one plate appearance with the Braves this season despite spending several weeks on the big league roster. He appeared in 24 Triple-A games with them and hit .204/.234/.255. Culberson is a beloved clubhouse presence and a fan favorite in Atlanta, but his .250/.292/.390 slash since Opening Day 2019 isn’t much to look at.

  • Paul DeJong (30)

DeJong technically hasn’t played third base in the Majors, but he’s a plus defender at shortstop and could likely handle the hot corner as part of a utility role. He’s a .200/.274/.353 hitter over the past four big league seasons, though.

  • Hunter Dozier (32)

Released by the Royals midway through the third season of a four-year deal back in May, Dozier could sign with any team for only the prorated league minimum. He didn’t sign following his release, however, and carries just a .222/.286/.384 line in 1134 plate appearances since 2021. Dozier was great in 2019 and solid in 2020, but his combined .267/.347/.492 output from that two-year peak is a distant memory in 2023.

  • Josh Harrison (36)

Harrison batted .270/.332/.390 in 1074 plate appearances from 2020-22, but this year’s run with the Phillies resulted in a .204/.263/.291 slash in 114 plate appearances. He can play second base, third base and the outfield corners. He could still draw interest on a minor league deal and compete for a bench job next spring.

  • Tommy La Stella (35)

A productive utilityman from 2016-20, La Stella’s three-year deal with the Giants was torpedoed by injuries. He was released this offseason and signed with the Mariners but only took 24 plate appearances as a DH and pinch-hitter, due to an elbow injury. He’s batted .242/.296/.373 since signing with the Giants in the 2020-21 offseason, battling a torn hamstring, an Achilles injury and that elbow trouble along the way.

  • Mike Moustakas (35)

Moustakas has had somewhat of a rebound season in 2023, simply by virtue of the fact that he’s been healthy enough to stay on the field. This year’s 370 plate appearances are already his most since 2019. Moustakas is hitting .252/.300/.404 with a dozen homers, but most of that damage came while he called Coors Field home. Since being traded from the Rockies to the Angels, he’s posted a .243/.265/.387 line in 263 plate appearances (71 wRC+).

Club Options

  • Eduardo Escobar (35)

Escobar was a productive hitter from 2017-22, with the lone exception of the Covid-shortened 2020 season. He reached 35 homers in the juiced-ball campaign back in 2019 and topped 20 dingers four other times. The 2023 campaign was the second season of his two-year, $20MM deal with the Mets and didn’t go well. The Mets traded him to the Angels after a poor start and paid down all but the minimum on his contract to facilitate the deal. He’s been used sparingly in Anaheim and hasn’t hit well: .224/.263/.327. The Angels aren’t going to pick up this option, and the Mets are responsible for the $500K buyout.

  • Max Muncy (33)

Assuming he logs another 35 plate appearances, Muncy’s $10MM club option will grow to $14MM. There’s no buyout for the team. Proponents of batting average won’t like it, but a $14MM decision is an easy call for the Dodgers to exercise. Muncy is barely north of the Mendoza Line, but he’s walking at an excellent 14.8% clip and hitting for more power than ever before. He’s already tied his career-high with 35 homers in just 515 plate appearances. Overall, he’s hitting .208/.332/.492.

Player Option

  • Justin Turner (39)

Turner has only logged 57 innings at third base in 2023, though that’s in part due to the presence of Rafael Devers in Boston. Still, defensive grades on him dipped during his final years with the Dodgers, and he’ll turn 39 in November, so it’s hard to assume a rebound. He’s spent some time at second base and first base this year, plus plenty of time at designated hitter.

There might be questions about Turner’s defensive outlook, but there’s no questioning his bat. He’s hitting .283/.354/.475 (121 wRC+) with 23 home runs, an 8.6% walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate. Turner has become the embodiment of the “professional hitter” classification, and with such a hefty buyout on that player option, he should have no time toppling a net $6.7MM in free agency.

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Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Second Base

By Anthony Franco | September 12, 2023 at 8:59pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

We’ve already covered the catchers and first basemen. Today, we move to the keystone. It’s a weak infield class in general and that’s reflected in the second base group. There are players at other positions who could ostensibly move to second base. Virtually every shortstop is capable of playing the less demanding middle infield spot, for instance. Those players will be covered in future positional previous, though, so we’ll limit this list to players who have logged some action at second base this season.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

  • Amed Rosario (28)

Rosario has been a shortstop for the bulk of his career, but the Dodgers have played him more frequently at second base since adding him at the deadline. One of the youngest players in the entire free agent class, Rosario hits the market coming off a down year. He was a roughly league average hitter from 2021-22 but has slumped to a .261/.302/.377 line over 516 plate appearances. He’s hitting for more power in Los Angeles than he had in Cleveland — largely because the Dodgers have more selectively deployed him in favorable platoon situations — but has reached base at just a .288 clip with L.A.

The righty-swinging Rosario has performed well against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s a well below-average offensive player versus righties. Some teams may prefer to keep him in more of a short side platoon role, but the middle infield class is weak enough that he figures to land an everyday job somewhere. Public metrics pegged Rosario as one of the sport’s worst defensive shortstops; he has rated more favorably at second base, though it’s tough to put much stock in a 153-inning sample.

  • Whit Merrifield (35)

Merrifield’s contract contains an $18MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. The Jays are very likely to decline their end, sending the veteran back to free agency. A three-time All-Star and two-time hits leader, Merrifield is one of the game’s better contact hitters. While he’s no longer performing at peak level, he owns a solid .281/.324/.396 slash with 11 homers through 549 plate appearances. He has kept his strikeouts to a modest 16.6% clip. He’s a fine defender at second base and can play the corner outfield.

The league has increasingly devalued the hit-first second base profile to which Merrifield belongs, however. Players like Jean Segura (over two years) and Adam Frazier (one year) received annual salaries in the $8MM – 8.5MM range last offseason. Merrifield’s platform year is more in line with Segura’s than Frazier’s, so he has a decent case for a two-year pact despite his age.

  • Adam Frazier (32)

Speaking of Frazier, he has rebounded somewhat from his down 2022 campaign. After hitting .238/.301/.311 a season ago, he owns a .248/.304/.415 slash through 409 plate appearances with the Orioles this year. His 13 home runs are a career high, and while he has added a moderate amount of swing-and-miss as a tradeoff, he’s still keeping his strikeouts to a tidy 13.4% clip.

Yet Frazier’s overall production has hovered around replacement level this year, largely thanks to a sharp drop in his defensive metrics. While Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast had each rated him as an average or slightly above-average second baseman for the majority of his career, they’ve soured on his work in 2023. Statcast metrics indicate that Frazier has particularly struggled on balls hit up the middle, perhaps related to a drop in his throwing velocities from the keystone. Whether teams feel that’s a blip or a more worrisome indication of dwindling athleticism as he gets into his 30s could determine whether he matches last winter’s $8MM deal.

Multi-Positional Types

  • Elvis Andrus (35)

Andrus has gotten into 98 games for the White Sox this season. It hasn’t gone all that well, as he’s hitting .251/.311/.353 with five longballs across 355 plate appearances. That’s more in line with the numbers he posted from 2018-21, making last year’s 17-homer showing look like a blip. Andrus is still a good baserunner and can play either middle infield spot, but he’s better suited for a utility role than regular playing time at this stage of his career.

  • Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández had a brutal start to the season, struggling to adjust to the Red Sox pushing him into regular shortstop run. He is better suited for the utility role he’s played throughout his career, logging most of his action at second base or in center field. The right-handed hitter was amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season when Boston traded him to the Dodgers a couple weeks before the deadline. He has turned things around in Southern California, hitting .266/.331/.435 in 139 plate appearances since the swap. The Dodgers acquired Hernández in hopes of bolstering their production against left-handed pitching, but he’s been far better against righties than lefties in that minuscule post-trade sample.

  • Tony Kemp (32)

Kemp is a contact-hitting second baseman who can also play left field. He was a solid regular for the A’s from 2021-22 before a down ’23 campaign. He’s hitting just .214/.309/.307 across 389 trips to the dish this season. That’s in large part a reflection of an unsustainably poor .227 average on balls in play. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills; he’s one of just four players (Luis Arraez, Ronald Acuña Jr. and José Ramírez being the others) with 300+ plate appearances and more walks than strikeouts. It seems likely he’ll find a guaranteed big league opportunity as a result.

  • Donovan Solano (36)

After barely playing in the majors between 2015-18, Solano has surprisingly put together a five-year run as an above-average hitter late in his career. He has continued on that trajectory for the Twins this season, putting up a .290/.376/.409 line over 402 trips to the plate. Solano is a bat-first utility option who can play either corner infield spot or second base. Even at age 36, he continues to produce and should earn himself a raise on this year’s $2MM salary.

Utility/Depth Players

  • Hanser Alberto (31)

Alberto got into 30 games for the White Sox, hitting .220/.261/.390 in 90 trips to the plate. The right-handed hitter hasn’t caught on since being released by Chicago in early June.

  • Isan Díaz (28)

A one-time top prospect, Díaz is a .177/.267/.274 hitter at the big league level. He has spent the majority of the last two seasons in Triple-A, appearing in eight MLB games this year between the Giants and Tigers. Detroit released him a few weeks ago.

  • Matt Duffy (33)

Duffy cracked the Royals’ roster out of camp after signing a minor league deal. The well-traveled infielder has spent the entire season on the big league club. He’s hitting .254/.309/.312 over 188 trips to the plate, picking up scattered starts at each of first, second and third base.

  • Eduardo Escobar (35)

Escobar has mostly split his playing time between third and second base. The switch-hitting veteran is wrapping up the second season of a two-year free agent pact that didn’t turn out as the Mets had envisioned. Escobar was surpassed on the depth chart by Brett Baty early in the season. The Mets dealt him to the Angels at a time when the Halos were still pushing to compete and decimated by infield injuries. The trade hasn’t worked out, as Escobar is hitting .229/.268/.333 with a 28.1% strikeout rate over 47 games in Orange County.

  • Josh Harrison (36)

Harrison posted a .204/.263/.291 batting line over 41 games with the Phillies this year. Released shortly after the trade deadline, he spent some time in the Rangers’ system but didn’t crack the Texas roster. Harrison opted out of his deal with Texas in late August and has been unsigned since then.

  • Rougned Odor (30)

After an early-career run as the Rangers’ starting second baseman, Odor has played for four clubs since 2020. He’s been a below-average hitter at every stop, showing some power but running consistently low on-base marks. Odor got into 59 games for the Padres this year, putting up a .203/.299/.355 slash before being released in July. He hasn’t signed elsewhere.

  • Jonathan Schoop (32)

A former All-Star, Schoop has hit .204/.248/.311 going back to the start of 2022. While he played Gold Glove caliber defense for the Tigers a season ago, the complete lack of offensive production led Detroit to release him around the All-Star Break. The 11-year MLB veteran hasn’t signed anywhere since, though he is yet to turn 32 and could still find minor league interest if he wants to give it another go.

  • Kolten Wong (33)

Wong had a brutal few months as a Mariner, hitting .165/.241/.227 over 67 games. Seattle released their offseason trade pickup at the beginning of August. He’s playing out the stretch with the Dodgers, getting selected to the MLB roster as part of September expansion after initially inking a minor league deal. Wong’s defensive marks have fallen from his Gold Glove peak and he has been one of the least effective hitters in the majors this year. Yet he was an above-average offensive performer just a season ago, when he hit .251/.339/.430 over 497 plate appearances for Milwaukee.

Player Options

  • Justin Turner (39)

Turner is a near-lock to head back to free agency. His contract with the Red Sox contains a $13.4MM player option with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. With a buyout worth half the option value, it should be an easy call for the two-time All-Star to head back to free agency. He’d surely beat the $6.7MM difference on his next deal.

Clubs probably won’t view Turner as an everyday second base option going into his age-39 season. He has logged 49 innings there this season, though, showing the ability to moonlight up the middle in addition to his more extensive work at the corner infield spots. The team that signs Turner is doing so for his bat, as the consistent veteran owns a .285/.355/.480 slash with 23 homers over 561 trips to the dish.

Club Options

  • Jorge Polanco (30)

It’s unlikely Polanco will get to the open market. The Twins hold a $10.5MM option for next season with a $1MM buyout. The $9.5MM difference is strong value for a quality bat-first middle infielder. The switch-hitting Polanco owns a .260/.341/.461 line on the season. While injuries have kept him to 290 plate appearances, it’s the third straight year in which he’s been a well above-average hitter on a rate basis. Polanco would be the best player in the second base class if he were available. Barring a major injury, he probably won’t be.

* All stats entering play Tuesday

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Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: First Base

By Steve Adams | September 11, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

Over the coming weeks, MLBTR will go around the diamond to preview the free agent class. Anthony Franco already took a look at the catching market, and next up will be a rundown of the first base options available this winter.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included for this exercise. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

  • Cody Bellinger (28 years old in 2024); eligible for qualifying offer

Bellinger will be looked at as an outfielder first and foremost, but the general lack of quality bats could lead teams with first base vacancies to consider him as well. The Cubs have given Bellinger 302 innings at the position this season (with positive defensive ratings to show for it), and the recent promotion of top center field prospect prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong could mean even more time there for Bellinger in the final few weeks.

Non-tendered by the Dodgers last year, Bellinger has enjoyed a hugely successful rebound with the Cubs. In 479 plate appearances, the former NL MVP has posted a huge .318/.361/.551 batting line with 25 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a career-low 15.9% strikeout rate. He’s walking at the lowest rate of his career (6.7%) and chasing balls out of the strike zone far more than he did at his peak. However, he’s also sporting career-high contact rates on pitches off the plate (72.3%) and pitches within the strike zone (86.9%).

Bellinger’s ability to the play the outfield is valuable enough that it’s hard to imagine a team signing him to play exclusively first base, but teams are more willing than ever to move players around the diamond based on matchups. Bellinger has hit so well — even with lackluster quality-of-contact marks on Statcast — that teams will likely be willing to move some pieces around just to get his bat in the lineup.

  • Jeimer Candelario (30); ineligible for qualifying offer (traded midseason)

Candelario has primarily played third base this season, and he’s drawn quality marks for his glovework there. The Cubs have given him ample run at first base since acquiring him, however. And as with Bellinger, some teams may simply want to sign the bat — even if it means playing Candelario at a less-demanding position on the defensive spectrum.

The last two weeks have seen Candelario fall into his most prolonged slump of the season. He’s gone just 5-for-52 over his past 17 games. That’s taken a bit of the shine off an otherwise excellent rebound season, but the switch-hitter was batting .272/.355/.495 as recently as Aug. 23 and still sports a comfortably above-average .253/.338/.473 slash (118 wRC+) overall this season.

Although Candelario’s 2022 season was rough enough to get him non-tendered by the Tigers, he’s bounced back in a big way and now has three well above-average offensive seasons in the past four years. This will likely be his second season with at least three wins above replacement in the past three years, and Candelario was on pace to easily eclipse that mark in the shortened 2020 season as well.

  • Rhys Hoskins (31); eligible for qualifying offer

Hoskins would likely have been one of the top power bats on the market with a healthy 2023 season, but things of course did not pan out that way. The 30-year-old followed last season’s six postseason home runs with a huge spring training … but saw his platform free-agent year end before it began when he suffered a torn ACL just a week before the season began.

While he doesn’t quite match Khris Davis levels of freakish consistency, Hoskins batted exactly .246 or .247 and belted between 27 and 34 home runs in four of the five seasons from 2018-22. He hit .241/.350/.483 with 130 home runs, a hefty 13.2% walk rate and a 24.1% strikeout rate that’s higher than average but also a good bit lower than many sluggers of this ilk tend to produce.

As one would expect, the righty-swinging Hoskins is better against left-handers than against right-handers, but he’s posted considerably better-than-average OBP and power numbers against each. There’ll surely be some various, creative contract structures discussed. We’ve seen fellow Scott Boras clients take various paths in recent years; Bellinger signed a straight one-year deal with the Cubs after a down season, whereas Michael Conforto inked a two-year, $36MM deal with a conditional opt-out (contingent on reach 350 plate appearances) after he, like Hoskins in 2023, missed the entire 2022 season due to injury.

He isn’t a great defensive first baseman, but a healthy Hoskins might be the best pure slugger not named Shohei Ohtani in this winter’s free-agent class.

  • Carlos Santana (38)

Perhaps it’s a stretch to call Santana a potential everyday option when he’ll turn 38 next year and is wrapping up a below-average offensive season on the whole. But the Pirates and Brewers have both given him plenty of playing time, and Santana still grades out as a strong defensive option at his position. He’s still drawing walks at a 10.4% clip and has never posted a walk rate south of 10%. He’s currently sitting on 19 home runs, which would be his third straight season with exactly that total.

Santana’s .251 average on balls in play looks like a product of poor luck at first glance, but he’s hit a whopping 26 infield flies this season. He’s long been prone to pop-ups, which helps to explain his career .258 BABIP. Still, even if there’s no reason to expect a rapid turnaround on his luck on balls in play, Santana is a good defensive first baseman who walks enough to post close to an average OBP and who clearly still has 20-homer pop. A contender might not plug him in at first base, but if a rebuilding team looking for a veteran to flip at the deadline — just as the Pirates did this season — could view him as a potential regular.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

  • Brandon Belt (36)

The former Giants cornerstone has had a resurgent year in Toronto, hitting .252/.371/.473 with 16 home runs in 380 plate appearances. Belt only has 36 plate appearances against lefties — they haven’t gone well — but has tattooed right-handed pitching. This year’s 34.7% strikeout rate is a glaring red flag, but Belt has also walked at a massive 15.8% rate. Belt will turn 36 next April, so expect a one- or two-year deal, but he’s shown there’s still plenty of power left in his bat.

  • Ji Man Choi (33)

The 2023 season has been one Choi would like to forget. After undergoing elbow surgery in the offseason, he suffered a strained Achilles tendon early in the year and wound up missing about three months of action. Choi played in just 23 games with the Pirates before being traded to the Padres, and after seven games in San Diego he suffered a Lisfranc injury in his foot and returned to the injured list. Choi is hitting just .179/.239/.440 in 92 plate appearances, but from 2017-22 he posted a .245/.350/.436 output. He’s never hit lefties well, but he’s a .244/.350/.455 hitter against right-handed pitching.

  • Garrett Cooper (33)

Cooper’s consistent productivity has always flown under the radar, in part because he’s spent most of his career playing for non-contending teams in Miami and also in part because he’s frequently been injured. This hasn’t been his best year (.256/.300/.420, 16 homers), but Cooper hit .274/.350/.444 in 1273 plate appearances from 2017-22 and carries a lifetime .270/.337/.435 line in the majors. His occasional dalliances in the outfield haven’t drawn good reviews, but Cooper has above-average marks at first base, both in his career and in 2023.

  • C.J. Cron (34)

The former 30-homer slugger has been out since mid-August due to a back injury and also missed six weeks earlier in the season with a neck injury. He hasn’t had his best season when healthy, hitting .252/.299/.441 in 274 plate appearances. He’d been heating up at the plate, however, batting .287/.333/.470 in 123 plate appearances between those two IL stints. It’s been a tough year, but Cron hit .260/.331/.490 with 116 home runs from 2018-22. Between his track record and the lack of quality hitters on the market, he’ll get a big league deal and regular time at first base and designated hitter somewhere.

  • Joey Gallo (30)

Gallo is athletic enough to handle any outfield position, but a Twins’ team deep in options on the grass has given him 322 innings at first base. He’s a solid defensive first baseman but hasn’t found his old All-Star form offensively. Gallo had a strong first couple weeks in the Twin Cities but has slumped since May and now carries a .177/.301/.440 line over 332 plate appearances. The sub-Mendoza average is nothing new, but this year’s 42.8% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s standards. He has hit 21 homers and walked at a huge 14.5% clip, leading to a roughly average wRC+ figure (103). That’s still not the bounceback the Minnesota front office envisioned when guaranteeing him $11MM last winter.

  • Donovan Solano (36)

Solano’s out-of-nowhere emergence as a quality big league hitter after signing a minor league deal with the Giants heading into his age-31 season remains remarkable. He’s not slowing down in 2023. The Twins inked him to a one-year, $2MM deal that’s proven to be a bargain, as he’s slashed .292/.377/.415 with five homers while playing first base, second base and third base. He should get a raise to fill a similar multi-positional role with a team in 2024.

Rebound Hopefuls and Depth options

  • Jesus Aguilar (34)

The A’s signed Aguilar to a one-year deal but released him in June after 115 plate appearances of well below-average production. He’s since signed a minor league deal with the Braves and is hitting .287/.393/.410 in Triple-A. The days of Aguilar looking like a genuine power threat might be behind us, but he’ll still draw interest on a minor league deal.

  • Kole Calhoun (35)

Calhoun posted a .906 OPS in Triple-A between the Dodgers and Yankees organizations before an August trade to Cleveland resulted in an immediate call to the MLB roster. He entered the year with just 44 innings at first base in his career but has already logged 192 with the Guardians, while hitting .241/.325/.398 in 123 plate appearances. Calhoun hit .208/.269/.343 in 606 plate appearances from 2021-22, but he’s been a roughly average hitter this year and has plenty of experience in the outfield corners as well.

  • Yuli Gurriel (40)

Gurriel was a fixture in the Astros’ lineup from 2016-22 but had to settle for a minor league deal with the Marlins this offseason on the heels of down year in his final year with Houston. He’s now posted a .244/.294/.359 line in his past 892 plate appearances and will turn 40 next June.

  • Eric Hosmer (34)

Hosmer signed a big league deal with the Cubs after being released by the Red Sox this winter but wasn’t able to produce in 100 plate appearances before being released a second time in late May. He’s been unsigned since. Any team can sign Hosmer and only owe him the league minimum for any time on the big league roster, as the Padres are still paying the bulk of his contract, which runs through 2025. He’s hit .266/.331/.384 in his past 1084 trips to the plate.

  • Jake Lamb (33)

The former D-backs third baseman broke camp with the Angels after signing a minor league deal but appeared in only 19 games before being designated for assignment and released. Lamb popped 59 homers with Arizona from 2016-17, but shoulder injuries tanked that promising trajectory. He’s a .205/.306/.359 hitter in his past 898 MLB plate appearances (2018-23).

  • Trey Mancini (32)

Mancini’s two-year deal with the Cubs didn’t work out for either party this winter. He hit .234/.299/.336 in 263 plate appearances — the most tepid production of his career to date. The Cubs are paying Mancini’s $7MM salary next year, so any team can sign him and only owe the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. His 35-homer campaign in 2019 is a distant memory, but Mancini is a beloved clubhouse presence who hit .247/.323/.412 from 2021-22 after his inspirational return from colon cancer.

  • Mike Moustakas (35)

Released by the Reds heading into the final season of his four-year, $64MM deal, Moustakas caught on with the Rockies and hit well enough to merit trade attention from the Angels. His bat has tailed off since. The once-formidable slugger has batted .228/.294/.377 over his past 855 MLB plate appearances.

  • Wil Myers (33)

Myers is the third straight player on this list to be released by the Reds this season. (Mancini briefly signed a minor league deal there after being cut loose by the Cubs.) His one-year, $7.5MM deal didn’t pan out as hoped. Myers hit just .189/.257/.283 in 141 plate appearances, striking out at a 34% clip. He’s a capable outfielder in addition to his work at first base and hit .256/.334/.434 with 17 homers as recently as 2021. He hasn’t signed since being released and might have to take a minor league deal this winter.

  • Darin Ruf (37)

Ruf can crush lefties (career .270/.368/.512, 141 wRC+), but he appeared in just 20 games this season due to injury and sluggish performance. He was a terrific find for the 2020-21 Giants, but he turned 37 in July and has now had consecutive below-average seasons at the plate.

Player Options

  • Josh Bell (31), $16.5MM player option; ineligible for qualifying offer (traded midseason)

Bell looked like a lock to exercise his player option not long ago, but he’s been on a tear since being traded from Cleveland to Miami and may have planted the seeds for that turnaround even earlier than the swap itself. He’s been hitting fly-balls at the highest rates of his career since early June, and the results have been noticeable. The switch-hitter is batting .276/.340/.515 in 148 plate appearances with the Fish and now carries a .262/.322/.472 output in his past 339 plate appearances.

There’s still a chance, if not a likelihood, that Bell will exercise his player option. But he’s been producing at a decidedly above-average level for more than three months now. It’s the inverse of last year’s season, wherein Bell had a productive run with the Nationals but slumped late in his tenure there and cratered following a trade to the Padres. Bell still secured a two-year, $33MM deal on the heels of that season, and while he probably won’t match his current AAV on a multi-year deal in free agency, it’s increasingly feasible to see him declining that player option and signing a multi-year deal with a larger total and lower AAV.

  • Justin Turner (39), $13.4MM player option with a $6.7MM buyout; ineligible for qualifying offer (has previously received a QO in his career)

Whether a team would install Turner as its everyday first baseman isn’t clear, but the Red Sox have given him 249 innings there in 2023. At the very least, he could presumably handle multiple infield spots and log ample time at DH with a new team.

There might be questions about Turner’s defensive outlook at this point, but there’s no questioning his bat. He continues to age like fine wine at the plate, hitting .285/.355/.480 (122 wRC+) with 23 home runs, an 8.4% walk rate and 16.9% strikeout rate. Turner bas become the embodiment of the “professional hitter” classification, and with such a hefty buyout on that player option, he should have no time toppling a net $6.7MM in free agency.

Age is going to limit Turner to a one- or two-year deal, but he’s one of the best hitters on the market and should command a strong annual rate of pay with a contending team.

Club Option

  • Joey Votto (40), $20MM club option with a $7MM buyout

Votto told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer earlier this month that he hasn’t made any decisions on his future. Only 40 qualified hitters in MLB history have gotten on base at a higher clip than Votto’s career mark of .410, but he’s followed up a staggering 2021 renaissance (.266/.375/.563, 36 homers in 129 games) with a .204/.313/.405 slash in his past two seasons — a total of 575 plate appearances.

The Reds will surely buy Votto out rather than pay him a net $13MM for his age-40 season, but if the Canadian-born slugger wants to continue his playing career, doing so in Cincinnati will remain high on his list. Whether he earnestly fields interest from other teams remains to be seen, but his track record, plate discipline and power — he hit 14 homers in 199 plate appearances this year — would likely gather interest on a one-year deal.

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