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Free Agent Faceoff: Second Base Battle Royale

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For those teams looking to improve at second base, many free agent options have already gone. Marcus Semien went to the Rangers, Javier Baez to the Tigers, Eduardo Escobar to the Mets, Cesar Hernandez to the Nationals and Rougned Odor to the Orioles. Chris Taylor and Leury Garcia returned to their clubs from 2021, the Dodgers and White Sox, respectively. It seems some people in the industry believe Trevor Story should be moved to second base, but it’s unclear if Story himself agrees with that assessment. It’s also possible that another shortstop could be moved to second, such as Jose Iglesias, though he has only 21 games of second base experience in his career thus far and hasn’t matched Story’s offensive production. For teams looking to upgrade at the keystone, who’s still available to be signed after the lockout?

Josh Harrison, 34, had an awful campaign in 2019 but has been solid over the past two seasons. Over 2020 and 2021, he got into 171 games and hit .279/.343/.402. That amounts to a wRC+ of 104 and 1.8 fWAR. Of those 171 games, he played second base in 114 of them, as well as lesser time at third and shortstop, with brief stints at all three outfield spots and even one inning at first base. Statcast doesn’t like his defensive work at those tertiary positions, but he was worth 8 OAA as a second baseman in 2021.

Jed Lowrie, 38 in April, only played nine games over 2019 and 2020 due to injuries. 2021 was a solid bounceback, however, as he played 139 games, hitting .245/.318/.398, for a wRC+ of 100, exactly league average. However, almost half of those games saw Lowrie slotted in at DH or appear as a pinch hitter, as he only played second base in 71 of them, along with three innings at third.

Donovan Solano, 34, is coming off the best three years of his career. From 2019 to 2021, he played 236 games, hitting .308/.354/.435 for a wRC+ of 114. In most of those games, 172, he appeared at second base, while also seeing some limited action at third and short. Statcast pegged his defense at second base as close to average over those three seasons.

Jonathan Villar, 31 in May, has alternated hot and cold in recent years. In 2019, he hit 24 homers, stole 40 bases and slashed .274/.339/.453 for a wRC+ 107 and 3.9 fWAR. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit just two dingers, stole 16 bases and hit .232/.301/.292 for a wRC+ of 65 and -0.3 fWAR. He turned things around again in 2021, with 18 homers, 14 stolen bases and a line of .249/.322/.416, 105 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. He only played nine games at second, as the Mets largely used him at third and short. Statcast wasn’t enamored with his defense in 2021, pegging him at -3 OAA overall.

Matt Duffy, 31 in January, had a rough 2019 and couldn’t crack the big leagues in 2020. Signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 season, he was able to crack the Opening Day roster and stick with the club all season long, except for a two-month stint on the IL. He got into 97 games and hit .287/.357/.381, for a wRC+ of 102 and 1.5 fWAR. He played 56 games at third, 21 at second, five at shortstop, three in left field, two at first base and even logged one third of an inning on the mound. Statcast graded him as being -4 OAA at second base in that small sample.

Matt Carpenter, 36, had a tremendous run from 2012 to 2018, putting up a wRC+ of at least 117 for seven straight seasons. However, it’s been a straight slide downwards since then. He finished 2018 at 140 but dropped to 96, 85 and 70 over the subsequent three campaigns. His strikeout rate also gradually ticked upwards, from 23.3% in 2018 to 26.2%, 28.4% and 30.9% in the three following years. He played 34 games at second base this year and was considered around average by Statcast. There’s no questioning it’s been a rough few years, but if he could get anywhere near his previous peak, he could be an intriguing bounceback candidate.

Each of these players have warts, but none of them should command a huge financial commitment. Villar was the only one to crack MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, being predicted to get a contract of $14MM over two years. But which one would you prefer? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Clayton Kershaw Sign?

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Clayton Kershaw is among the most interesting free agents still available. The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but he’s still highly effective when healthy. He worked 121 2/3 innings over 22 starts this past season, pitching to a 3.55 ERA with a very strong 29.5% strikeout percentage and a tiny 4.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ frames, only five topped Kershaw’s 25.2 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages.

Yet the 33-year-old’s status is complicated by a few matters. First and foremost is health. He missed two months with forearm/elbow soreness between July and September. The three-time Cy Young award winner returned to make four starts, but he exited his final regular season appearance with renewed forearm issues. That proved to be season-ending, and while he didn’t require Tommy John surgery, he did undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection.

Kershaw is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training. Which uniform he’ll don remains up in the air, though. He’s been a career-long Dodger, and the Los Angeles front office has predictably spoken about a desire to bring him back. The Dodgers declined to make him a qualifying offer, a decision president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last month was out of respect for his accomplishments with the franchise. There’s no doubt the team would welcome a return, but Friedman told reporters the pitcher wanted to take some time to ruminate on his decision with his family.

If he doesn’t return to the Dodgers, it’s widely expected he’d be donning a Rangers uniform. Kershaw’s a Dallas native who has ties to Texas manager Chris Woodward, who previously worked on the Dodgers staff. Woodward is already on record about the Rangers’ desire to bring him aboard this offseason.

Texas probably isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2022, while the Dodgers look like one of the game’s top World Series contenders. Yet the Rangers would welcome both the high-end production Kershaw’s likely to provide if healthy and his veteran leadership for a generally young rotation in Arlington. If Kershaw and his family decide that a move to the Dallas area is desirable, the Rangers would no doubt be happy to add him.

There’d surely be other teams with interest if Kershaw casts a wider geographic net than Los Angeles and Texas. Assuming he’s indeed on track to be ready for the season, the eight-time All-Star would upgrade every team’s rotation. Kershaw himself hasn’t hinted at a decision one way or another, yet it’d register as a surprise to many around the industry if he signed with anyone other than the Dodgers or Rangers.

It’s also at least worth mentioning the possibility Kershaw decides not to play at all. Some may read into Friedman’s November statement that Kershaw “wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them” as a potential hint of retirement. In October, Kershaw had told reporters he hadn’t made any decision about his future (link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Turning 34 in March and still a well above-average pitcher, Kershaw still looks capable of pitching for multiple seasons beyond 2021, but retirement can’t be completely ruled out until he makes a definitive declaration about his desire to keep playing.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in with thoughts. Where is Kershaw likely to be in 2022?

(poll link for app users)

 

If Not The Braves, Where Could Freddie Freeman Sign?

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32-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman, once of baseball’s best hitters, entered the lockout without a home.  After 12 years with the Braves and coming off a championship, the assumption is that Atlanta remains the favorite.

The last information we have on Freeman’s negotiations with the Braves dates back to mid-November.  On November 12th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today put it this way, reporting from the GM Meetings in Carlsbad:

“Free agent Freddie Freeman was on the mind of every team seeking a first baseman, with Freeman rejecting Atlanta’s five-year, $135 million offer, and seeking closer to a six-year, $200 million deal. Yet, you couldn’t find a soul who believes Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta.”

Jon Heyman of MLB Network generally concurred in a report four days later, writing, “Last heard 6th year was still at issue in Freeman/Braves talks but situation is fluid and they’ve still got to be considered the favorite.”  A few weeks after that, Heyman suggested the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are “trying to pry” Freeman away from the Braves, even though those clubs find it unlikely.

Will the Braves or Freeman crack on the sixth year issue once the lockout ends?  Would Freeman take a lower AAV than the expected $30MM+ to convince the Braves to commit to a sixth year, perhaps at something like six years and $160MM?  Whatever needs to happen to get it done, the impending lockout did not create enough pressure to result in an agreement.  You’d have to think Freeman’s chances of leaving the Braves are around their highest point, whatever those chances are.  The Braves have let it get to a point where Freeman has no team, and other teams likely made offers.

Let’s assume something like MLBTR’s six-year, $180MM projection would be needed to lure Freeman away from the Braves.  Signing Freeman would also likely require draft pick forfeiture.  If not the Braves, which teams could reasonably do that contract?  Let’s start by assessing Heyman’s trio.

  • Dodgers: The Dodgers doing a six-year contract for another team’s 32-year-old free agent?  Andrew Friedman has been in charge for seven years now, and he’s given out four-plus years to another team’s free agent two times: four years to Brandon McCarthy in 2014, and four years to AJ Pollock in 2019.  Under Friedman, the club did go to four years to retain Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and five to keep Kenley Jansen in free agency.  They also notably did a 12-year extension with Mookie Betts before he played a regular season game with the team.  But six years to Freeman along with the forfeiture of the Dodgers’ second and fifth round draft picks?  I just don’t see it.  Signing Freeman would also require Max Muncy to spend more time at second or third base, but the addition of an NL DH could alleviate a potential logjam.
  • Yankees: The Yankees basically did nothing to improve the team prior to the lockout, so there’s the idea they could add Freeman’s sweet-swinging lefty bat in lieu of their more pressing need at shortstop.  Even if Freeman costs $180MM, that’s still likely over $100MM less than Carlos Correa.  The team could and would likely have to exceed a new 2022 competitive balance tax threshold to sign Freeman, but they may be willing to do so after staying below the line in 2021.  Adding Freeman would do nothing to solve the shortstop issue, and it would also crowd out Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres to a degree.  One of them could be traded to accommodate Freeman.  Still, Freeman is an imperfect fit for a team that is also in need of rotation help.
  • Blue Jays: Speaking of imperfect Freeman fits, the Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base.  Assuming Freeman doesn’t intend to mostly shelve his first baseman’s glove, Vlad Jr. would have to spend most of his time at designated hitter – fresh off a second-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger award.  A shift back to third base for Guerrero would seem even more risky.  It’s also worth noting that signing Freeman would permanently plug up Toronto’s DH spot, where George Springer spent nearly half his games in 2021.  I think the Blue Jays could swing the financial commitment to Freeman, and I get the idea of replacing Marcus Semien’s bat, but this is not a great roster fit.

So we’ve looked at the three teams Heyman linked to Freeman, and none seem like a perfect fit.  Let’s look at all the other even slightly plausible options.

    • White Sox: They’ve got Jose Abreu at first base, but only through 2022.  They’ve also got flexibility in the DH spot, so the roster fit could work.  Financially, though, I’d be quite surprised to see the White Sox make this level of commitment given their current payroll situation.
    • Tigers: There’s a sense that the Tigers have finished their major spending after the Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez signings.  But man, would Freeman be a game-changer in Detroit.  They’ve got Jonathan Schoop at first base and Miguel Cabrera at DH, neither of whom should block a player like Freeman.  Freeman could get in the way of top prospect Spencer Torkelson, who played more first base than third this year in the minors.  Plus, the club has Jeimer Candelario at third base.  I don’t think the Tigers will pursue Freeman, but if they had the desire to spend the money I think the roster could be figured out.
    • Red Sox: The Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec at first base, who came on very strong in the season’s final two months.  They’ve got J.D. Martinez at DH, but only for one more year.  They also have first base prospect Triston Casas.  Roster-wise, the Red Sox have good options at first for the long-term, though no established Major Leaguers.  They also have a GM who’s yet to give a free agent more than $14MM.  As with Andrew Friedman, this just doesn’t seem like Chaim Bloom’s way of doing things.
    • Astros: The Astros have Yuli Gurriel at first base, but only for one more year.  They’ve got Yordan Alvarez as the regular DH.  Signing Freeman would probably necessitate a Gurriel trade.  The Astros do have the payroll flexibility to accommodate Freeman, but they seem like yet another big market club that would shy away from signing a corner infielder through age 37 – especially since they don’t seem to want to pay Carlos Correa past age 31.
    • Angels:  The Angels are committed to Shohei Ohtani as DH for two more years, and they’d surely like to lock up the AL MVP beyond that.  And Jared Walsh took over first base quite capably for the Halos this year.  Like the Yankees, shortstop and the rotation are more pressing needs.  It’s difficult to see Freeman landing here.
    • Mariners: The Mariners have Ty France at first base, plus Evan White under contract through 2025.  They don’t have a set DH, but Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens are projected to spend time there in 2022.  France could potentially play some second or third base, if the Mariners decided to accommodate Freeman.  The Mariners spent big on Robbie Ray and traded for Adam Frazier, but they’re known to be in the hunt for a significant position player addition.  I consider Freeman within the realm of possibility, though the more versatile Kris Bryant would fit better if the price tag is similar.
    • Rangers: The Rangers have Nathaniel Lowe at first base, and no set DH.  Lowe had a nice year for a player who hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time, but bumping him to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be problematic.  It’d be staggering for the Rangers to add Freeman after already committing $561.2MM to four free agents, though they could afford it.  Pitching has to be a higher priority for this team, but who’s to say they can’t do both?
    • Cubs: The Cubs have Frank Schwindel penciled in at first base after a strong couple of months, and no NL team has an incumbent DH.  Schwindel is 29 and there was nothing special about his exit velocity or launch angle even in his successful stint.  Pushing Schwindel to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be an issue, and the team did make a statement with the Marcus Stroman signing.  But that was a surprisingly short three-year deal, and with Freeman we’re talking about double that term to a player who is 19 months older.  Freeman just doesn’t fit with the long-term payroll flexibility GM Jed Hoyer enjoys.
    • Cardinals: The team has Paul Goldschmidt under contract for three more years, but again, an NL DH would open things up.  Signing Freeman would mean stretching payroll to a franchise record, and I doubt the team considers first base/DH a position of need.
    • Marlins: The Marlins have Jesus Aguilar under control for next year, but he’s not much of an impediment for a player like Freeman.  Here, it’s all about money.  A team with a $65MM payroll can afford Freeman, but Avisail Garcia’s $53MM deal seemed like the Marlins’ big free agency strike.  Freeman would require more than triple that commitment.
    • Mets: The Mets have to be listed here in the name of, “How crazy can Steve Cohen get?”  Crazy enough to add Freeman to the $254.5MM the club already committed to free agents this winter, while also forfeiting the 14th pick in next year’s draft?  Even with a more significant need in the rotation?  I don’t expect Cohen to steal Freeman away from the Braves, but it’d be the ultimate power move.
    • Phillies: The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins for two more years.  He’s been an excellent hitter, though he will be coming off lower abdomen surgery.  The Phillies’ needs at shortstop, third base, left field, and center field are much more stark than at first base/DH.  They also have a fairly bloated payroll situation.  I suppose Dave Dombrowski could simplify and try to sign Freeman in the name of adding the top bat, but it’d be a surprising choice.
    • Nationals: One year of Josh Bell wouldn’t block Freeman.  And should the Nats really take any kind of step back with only three more years of control of Juan Soto?  But it just doesn’t sound like the Nationals are looking to take on a commitment of this nature this winter.
    • Rockies: They’ve got C.J. Cron at first base, but could easily move him to DH for Freeman.  The Rockies have relatively modest commitments, which drop quite a bit as of 2024.  As a team with real and surprising interest in Kris Bryant, we should consider a possible pursuit of Freeman as well.
    • Padres: Freeman is an excellent roster fit for the Padres, who have an underperforming Eric Hosmer locked in through 2025.  The team’s payroll is pushing $200MM already, so GM A.J. Preller would need to get creative and move contracts to fit Freeman in.  It’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
    • Giants: The Giants haven’t really demonstrated their financial might yet, committing $99.4MM to four free agents without topping Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM.  DH is the ideal spot for the injury-prone Brandon Belt.  Farhan Zaidi does seem to come from the increasingly common GM school of thought that eschews long-term free agent commitments, even in big markets.  He’d have to buck that trend to sign Freeman, but otherwise it’s reasonable enough.
    • Brewers: The Brewers are a contending team with Rowdy Tellez penciled in at first base, so they at least warrant a mention.  It’s just hard to see them outbidding the field to land Freeman in that $180MM range.  I could write something very similar for the Guardians.

You’ve seen my opinions; now it’s your turn (direct poll link for app users here).

MLB Lockout Reader Survey

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Today marks Day 26 of the MLB lockout, as we trudge toward the end of the quietest December this website has ever seen.  The new year begins Saturday, and there’s an expectation MLB and the players’ union will resume negotiating core economic issues sometime in January.

The collective bargaining agreement expired on December 1st and MLB instituted a lockout, and the time since has been a waste: no notable movement on a new CBA, and of course a freeze on free agent signings and trades.  The only dates that seem likely to motivate either side are related to Spring Training.  Normally we’d see pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training the week of February 14.  And the Spring Training game schedule has been in place for months, with games set to kick off February 26.  So February 26 is the next real pressure point, as canceling Spring Training games will result in tangible revenue loss for teams.  It’s entirely possible we won’t see any real CBA movement until February.

Seeing as how we’re mired in the first work stoppage of MLBTR’s 16-year history, I’d like to see where our readers stand on several key issues.  Check out our eight-question survey below.  You can click here for a direct link to it, and click here to view the results.

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Poll: Carlos Correa’s Contract

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There’s been plenty of speculation as to Carlos Correa’s next destination, and even as the lockout trudges on, some reporting on the interest he’s received to date. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and incumbent Astros were all reported to have contacted Correa prior to the lockout, and in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Tigers had put forth a ten-year offer worth $275MM — presumably prior to signing Javier Baez to his six-year, $140MM contract. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago wrote yesterday that while there’s mutual interest with the Cubs, the team is loath to commit the length of contract Correa is seeking.

The length of contract Correa is set upon will obviously play a large role in where he ultimately signs. If he’s set on a deal of ten (or more) years in length, the Cubs and Astros seem to be out of the question. If he eventually is willing to take a slightly shorter deal, presumably with a massive annual value, it could open the door a bit further. Some suitors may yet may ramp up their interest or pivot to Correa if they miss out on larger target (e.g. Braves and Freddie Freeman) or if the luxury tax threshold rises substantially in the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement.

Given that he’s hitting the market in advance of his age-27 season, it’s not a surprise to see Correa eyeing deals of ten-plus years in length. And, now that Corey Seager has inked a 10-year deal for $325MM — joining Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstops with contracts of 10 or more years — Correa is surely hopeful of adding his own name to that prestigious group (if not besting all three in terms of total guarantee).

If the Yankees indeed plan to sit out the market for top shortstops, as has been reported, that’s a sizable blow to Correa’s market. Add that the Dodgers have an excellent in-house option already in Trea Turner and may not want to add a second $300MM contract to the books alongside Mookie Betts, and Correa may have to drum up some interest from teams that haven’t been publicly linked to him just yet.

The Phillies have a need at shortstop but appear more focused on center field and the bullpen. The Mets don’t seem like a fit in terms of roster composition, but owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend at a nearly unparalleled level. The Blue Jays reportedly pursued Seager before he signed in Texas; would they consider a legitimate pursuit of Correa in the wake of Marcus Semien’s departure? Could the Tigers follow the Rangers’ lead and shock baseball with a double-dip in the shortstop market? The Mariners haven’t been characterized as a suitor just yet, but they have the payroll space and are seeking an impact bat.

As the already slow news cycle winds down during the holiday season, let’s try to make our best guess both as to where Correa will sign and for how much in total dollars…

How large will Correa’s contract be? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Where will Correa sign? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Kris Bryant Vs. Kyle Seager Vs. Eduardo Escobar

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If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.

Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.

Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.

Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.

As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.

There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will J.D. Martinez Opt Out?

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With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?

This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.

Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.

On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.

On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.

With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.

Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?

 

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Poll: Astros/Braves, Who Wins The World Series?

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The Fall Classic is set to begin on Tuesday, with the Astros and Braves meeting in Game 1 of the World Series.  This is the first time these two clubs have met in the World Series, though they were pretty frequent postseason opponents back when the Astros were in the National League.  Between 1997 and 2005, Atlanta and Houston met five times in NLDS play, with the Braves coming out on top in three of those matchups.

The Braves are heading to the World Series for the tenth time in their history, and in search of their fourth championship.  While nothing will ever top the 1914 Miracle Braves as the franchise’s signature comeback story, the 2021 team isn’t that far off, considering how this year’s Braves were only 52-55 heading into action on August 3.  By this point, Atlanta had already lost Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka to season-ending injuries, and Marcell Ozuna was away from the team (and soon to be put on administrative leave by the league) due to domestic violence charges.

However, the Braves were far from done.  An aggressive trade strategy saw outfielders Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler, and future NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario all added prior to the trade deadline, and Atlanta went 36-18 the rest of the way.  A lackluster NL East undoubtedly helped, but the Braves kept it going into October, defeating the Brewers in the NLDS and then ousting the defending champion Dodgers in the NLCS.  That last win was particularly sweet for Atlanta, considering the blown 3-1 lead against Los Angeles in the 2020 League Championship Series.

The Astros had a bit of an easier time of it in the regular season, battling with the A’s and Mariners for the AL West lead for much of the year but eventually pulling ahead in comfortable fashion.  Even without such familiar names as George Springer or Justin Verlander, Houston could still rely on several core members (i.e. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel) of its last two pennant winners, plus a pitching staff that has been almost entirely overhauled since the Astros were last in the World Series in 2019.

This will be the fourth time the Astros have reached the Fall Classic, with Houston’s lone championship coming back in 2017.  As you might have heard, there was more than a little controversy attached to the Astros’ success in 2017, so it’s safe to say that another championship won’t erase the “buzzers and garbage cans” cloud that may hang over the franchise for some time to come.  Yet, that hardly matters to a group that has turned over a great number of its personnel since that 2017 season.  Dusty Baker, for instance, has been manager for just the last two years, and it’s hard to not feel some sentiment for the veteran skipper trying to win the first World Series of his long managerial career.

Who is your pick to win it all?  And, as an added bonus, how many games will be required?  (poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Kevin Gausman Vs. Robbie Ray

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There are a few options for teams playing at the top of the starting pitching market to choose from this winter. Max Scherzer should land the highest average annual value, but his age (37) might cap the length of those offers at three years. Carlos Rodón had an utterly dominant platform year, but he dealt with some shoulder concerns at the end of the season that could be a red flag for teams. Marcus Stroman has a long track record of durability, great strike-throwing and elite ground-ball numbers, but he doesn’t miss bats the way most teams covet from their top-of-the-rotation arms.

It’s not out of the question someone from that trio could land a deal that surpasses general expectations. It seems more likely, though, that Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray will ultimately wind up battling one another for the highest overall guarantee among pitchers. Let’s dig into each player’s profile to determine which one teams should have at the top of their preference lists.

For the first few seasons of his career, Gausman occasionally flashed the potential that had made him a top five draft pick. But he also had bouts of inconsistency and struggled badly enough in 2019 to be waived by the Braves and then non-tendered by the Reds, who had plucked him off the wire.

Since signing with the Giants over the 2019-20 offseason, Gausman has taken his game to a new level. His 3.62 ERA in 2020 was among the best marks of his career, and even that belied elite strikeout and walk numbers. That came in only twelve outings because of the shortened season, and Gausman accepted a qualifying offer last winter in hopes of proving he’d markedly improved over a bigger body of work.

Betting on himself is in position to pay off handsomely. Gausman stayed healthy all year, working 192 innings of 2.81 ERA ball. He didn’t quite sustain his 2020 strikeout rate, but this past season’s 29.3% mark still checked in fourteenth among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. Gausman’s 15.3% swinging strike rate was even more impressive, placing fifth among that same group. He’ll now market back-to-back great years of performance. He has missed bats at an elite level for the past few seasons, and the righty has always had plus control.

There’s not a whole lot to nitpick about Gausman’s numbers, although it’s at least worth considering that he succeeds somewhat non-traditionally. He’s tinkered with different breaking pitches but has never found an effective one. Instead, he leaned more heavily than ever on his four-seam fastball (52.7%) and splitter (35.3%) in 2021. Per Statcast, Gausman was one of just fourteen starting pitchers to use a split more than 10% of the time. Most teams are probably willing to look past that unconventional repertoire, since Gausman now has a multi-year track record of great play. Still, it’s a lot more common to see aces with a Ray-like arsenal (primarily fastball-slider), and that could be a factor for some clubs.

Great as Gausman was this past season, Ray was arguably better. The southpaw posted a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 frames. He thrived in a division that sent three other teams to the playoffs and split his year between a trio of home ballparks, all of which seemed to be favorable for hitters. Gausman spent the year in the National League, where he’d get to face the opposing pitcher on most nights; Ray wasn’t as fortunate pitching in the American League. And while Gausman turns 31 in January, Ray will pitch almost all of next season at age-30 before turning 31 in October.

Ray’s underlying metrics were similarly elite. He fanned 32.1% of opponents, the sixth-highest mark leaguewide. Ray checked in one spot ahead of Gausman on the swinging strike rate leaderboard, with his 15.5% mark ranking fourth. When batters did make contact against Ray, they were more successful than they’d been hitting against Gausman. Ray was more prone to hard contact and fly balls, and he indeed gave up more home runs. But on a batter-by-batter basis, they were similarly effective at preventing baserunners. Opponents hit .210/.267/.401 against Ray; they batted .210/.264/.345 off Gausman.

Of course, teams will take the players’ pre-2021 bodies of work into account when making a decision of this magnitude. For Gausman versus Ray, that only makes things more complicated. While Gausman was great in 2020, Ray had an awful season. He walked 17.9% of batters faced that year, posting a 6.62 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. It was a nightmarish year, but it’s also easy to see teams writing that off as a fluke. Not only was 2020 a season of inherent small samples, Ray made an obvious alteration to his throwing mechanics entering that year. Clearly, Ray’s pre-2020 adjustments negatively impacted his control, but he returned to his original throwing motion in 2021, as he explained to Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic last month.

While Gausman’s 2020 was unquestionably better than Ray’s, the latter had the better career track record going into that year. He was an All-Star in 2017, a year in which he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting. He had a top ten strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) every season from 2016-19. So while Ray was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2020, he certainly hasn’t come out of nowhere.

To recap: Gausman and Ray had similarly elite platform seasons. The former was also great in 2020, while the latter had a terrible season. Ray was far better before 2020, though, and he’s nearly a full year younger. Now, we’ll turn it over to the readership. Whom should teams looking to make a splash in free agency this winter prefer: Gausman or Ray?

(poll link for app users)

 

Poll: Who Will Advance To The World Series?

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Both League Championship Series are now set, following the Dodgers’ 2-1 victory over the Giants in Game 5 of the National League Division Series. Over the next week-plus, we’ll see the Astros (home field advantage) battle the Red Sox for the AL pennant while the Braves (home field advantage) take on the Dodgers for the NL crown.

All four teams are dealing with either uncertainty surrounding a key player. It’s still not clear whether the Astros will have Lance McCullers Jr. for the ALCS after he exited his last start against the White Sox due to forearm discomfort and underwent an MRI. On the other side of this matchup, Red Sox star third baseman Rafael Devers has been playing through a forearm injury that has impacted his swing but has yet to detract from his production.

The Braves, meanwhile, don’t know when or whether they’ll get slugger Jorge Soler back into the mix after he tested positive for Covid-19 just hours before their own Game 5 showdown against Milwaukee. The Dodgers have been without Max Muncy throughout the postseason, and both manager Dave Roberts and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman were deliberately vague when asked about him following last night’s win (Twitter links via Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

With just four teams remaining in the field and a fresh pair of best-of-seven series set to kick off over the next two days, it seems like a good time to give MLBTR readers a chance to weigh in on who they’re taking in the ALCS and the NLCS (and perhaps an avenue to voice their thoughts on any, um… questionable… calls from last night’s game).

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

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