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Better Building Block: Aaron Judge Or Michael Conforto?

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If the first couple months of the major league season are any indication, two of baseball’s best hitters are emerging in New York. In the Bronx, there’s Yankees right fielder and American League Rookie of the Year front-runner Aaron Judge; in Queens, Mets outfielder Michael Conforto has rebounded from an underwhelming 2016 to fare even better than he did during his sensational rookie campaign in 2015.

Aaron Judge

Given that Judge looked lost during his first big league stint last season, his success this year has come as a bigger surprise than Conforto’s. The 6-foot-7, 275-pound behemoth did notch four home runs in only 95 plate appearances, but that came with an alarming strikeout rate (44.2 percent) and a horrid .179/.263/.345 batting line. To his credit, though, the 25-year-old Judge worked prior to the season on cutting down his strikeouts and making more contact, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik detailed earlier this month, and the results have been excellent. Everything is trending right for Judge – his strikeout rate is down to a manageable 29 percent; his contact rate has shot up exactly 10 points (from 60.2 percent to 70.2 percent); his walk rate has climbed from 9.8 percent to a terrific 14.2 percent; his out-of-strike zone swing rate has fallen from 33.6 percent to 25.5 percent; and his swinging-strike rate is at 12.4 percent after sitting at 18.1 percent last year.

All of Judge’s gains have helped lead to a .316/.421/.665 line in 183 PAs – not to mention a first-place start for the Yankees – and he currently ranks third in the majors in both wRC+ (192, trailing only Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman) and isolated power (.348, again behind only Trout and Freeman), and second in home runs (15, one behind Trout and tied for second with Bryce Harper). While an unsustainable .391 batting average on balls in play has propped up Judge’s numbers, his production still looks legitimate when factoring in the degree to which he has punished baseballs. Judge’s expected weighted on-base average, which uses exit velocity and launch angle to gauge a hitter’s performance, is sitting at .427 – not far below his actual wOBA of .450 – per Baseball Savant. As great as Judge has been offensively, he has also held his own with the glove, ranking fifth among outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (seven, behind well-known defensive wizards Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Kevin Kiermaier and Byron Buxton) and a respectable 34th among 70 qualifiers in UZR/150 (2.7).

Michael Conforto

Conforto, meanwhile, hasn’t been on Judge’s level defensively (a combined minus-one DRS and minus-5.2 UZR/150 at all three outfield positions); however, as Judge has been this season, Conforto was outstanding with the glove during his rookie year (nine DRS, 26.5 UZR/150), so there’s reason for hope going forward. Regardless, the bulk of the 24-year-old Conforto’s value will always come from his bat, and the lefty-swinger has done his best to match the right-handed Judge and keep the woebegone Mets afloat this season. Conforto, after hitting a so-so .220/.310/.414 in 348 major league PAs last season and even earning a minor league demotion, is now sitting at .322/.416/.658 with 13 homers and a 13.3 percent walk rate (against a strikeout percentage of 24.9) in 173 trips to the plate this year. He ranks fifth in the majors in ISO (.336) and sixth in wRC+ (178), and while he’s also running a BABIP (.370) that won’t last, his .391 xwOBA (down from a .440 wOBA) is indicative of a superstar-caliber hitter.

While Judge and Conforto have torn apart major league pitching this year, the fact that the two are thriving isn’t completely shocking, as each cracked various top 100 lists as prospects. Now, both sluggers are more than living up to the hype they generated before their major league tenures began. With Judge and Conforto potentially in the midst of becoming franchise cornerstones, I’ll ask you the same question Joel Sherman of the New York Post presented to major league scouts and front office executives earlier this week: Who’s the better long-term piece?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Expected Contenders Will Turn Into Sellers?

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It’s mid-May, so the likelihood of a significant trade going down in the near-term is pretty low. After all, even the clubs buried in the cellars of their respective divisions will be waiting on further results before deciding their course of action this summer.

Still, though, we’re reaching the point where clubs will begin weighing their options to buy or sell at the deadline. And we’ve seen a reasonably significant amount of action, with injuries and performances changing expectations for some players and teams.

While there’s still a lot to be learned, then, it’s a good time to make some predictions. As is usually the case, a variety of teams are off to surprisingly slow starts. Some of these will likely bounce back and at least enter the Wild Card picture. Others will fade out of contention and face tough choices on key veterans.

The question for MLBTR’s readership, then, is which of the teams that entered the year anticipating contention will likely end up being so buried that they’re forced to sell at the trade deadline (if not sooner).

In defining our slate of poll options, there are some necessarily arbitrary lines of demarcation. In this case, I’ve made wholly subjective assessments of which teams entered the year with realistic expectations of contending — meaning, at least remaining in the postseason picture for the vast bulk of the season. And I’ve then drawn the line for consideration at four games below .500 entering today’s action.

Select which of the following teams you expect to end up selling this summer (check all that apply; link for app users):

Poll: The Rangers’ Closer

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After a catastrophic start to the season for Rangers right-hander Sam Dyson, the team’s ninth-inning scene is now among the biggest question marks facing the club’s decision-makers. Like predecessor Shawn Tolleson, Dyson transitioned from largely unheralded setup man to unlikely closer in 2016, racking up 38 saves with a 2.43 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, Dyson has also seemingly followed Tolleson’s footsteps by imploding early in his second season as a closer; in just 4 1/3 innings this year, the 28-year-old has yielded a staggering 13 earned runs on 14 hits (two homers) and five walks with just two strikeouts. He’s blown three saves and been saddled with three losses for a Rangers team that current sits last in the AL West with a 4-8 record.

A closer change in Arlington seems like a virtual lock, though manager Jeff Banister wouldn’t firmly commit to a new closer yesterday, telling reporters, “We’ll have those discussions,” when asked about a possible change but neglecting to elaborate beyond that (via MLB.com’s Doug Miller). The Rangers do possess several alternative options, so let’s run down the possibilities with a change seeming likely on the horizon…

  • Matt Bush: The resurgence of the former No. 1 overall pick as a shutdown reliever is among the most improbable comebacks in recent MLB history. Bush has been dominant in 66 1/3 innings since making his MLB debut at the age of 30 last season, which came after spending more than three years in prison. With the Rangers, he’s posted a 2.58 ERA with a 69-to-15 K/BB ratio, a ground-ball rate of 42 percent and a fastball that has averaged 97 mph. There’s at least some level of trepidation when it comes to Bush’s shoulder, however, as the right-hander received a cortisone injection in his ailing AC joint last week, though he hasn’t demonstrated any ill effects since returning.
  • Jeremy Jeffress: The former Brewers closer has been generally excellent since establishing himself as a big league bullpen arm back in 2014. Across his past 164 Major League innings, Jeffress has a 2.58 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate approaching 60 percent. He’s typically averaged about 95 mph on his heater, and he racked up 27 saves in 2016 for the Brewers before being shipped to the Rangers alongside Jonathan Lucroy in a summer blockbuster. Like Bush, Jeffress has had his share of off-field issues and spent a month in a rehab facility for alcohol abuse late last season. Looking solely at his on-field performance, he’s a perfectly serviceable option for the Rangers in the ninth inning and comes with the most experience of the team’s internal candidates. Piling up some additional saves would likely inflate Jeffress’ arbitration earnings next year, though the team likely wouldn’t be deterred by that if it kept them in games in 2017.
  • Tony Barnette: A former Diamondbacks minor leaguer that broke out in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Barnette inked a two-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rangers on the heels of a dominant six-year run with NPB’s Yakult Swallows. The 33-year-old has had a slightly rocky start to his 2017 season but was a terrific low-cost addition to the relief corps last season, logging 60 1/3 innings of 2.09 ERA ball with 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Installing Barnette as the closer comes with immediate financial implications as well, as his modest $1.75MM salary can rise by as much as $550K based on games finished. He can also see the value of his $4MM club option for the 2017 season increase significantly based on games finished.

The Rangers also have hard-throwing rookie Jose Leclerc, though he comes with just 21 1/3 innings of Major League experience to date. Young right-hander Keone Kela would’ve conceivably been an option to close games in the event of a Dyson meltdown, but he was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock at the end of Spring Training for disciplinary reasons following a clash with some of the team’s more veteran players. Either righty could seemingly be a high-leverage/ninth-inning option down the line, but neither stands out as a likely option at present.

As I did with the Phillies last week, I’ll turn this one over to the general public to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

Poll: The Phillies’ Closer

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After Jeanmar Gomez suffered his second blown save of the season, the Phillies are already considering a change in the ninth inning, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters last night. To those who haven’t followed the situation closely, it may seem like a short leash for a player that save 37 games last season. But Gomez’s troubles date back considerably further than 2017 Opening Day; Gomez posted a dreadful 8.33 ERA following the All-Star break last season — including an even more unsightly 22 earned runs in his final 15 innings. Even when he was pitching effectively prior to that, the now-29-year-old Gomez’s 5.6 K/9 rate and 91.5 mph fastball weren’t the typical numbers one would expect from a high-leverage reliever.

Of course, it should be noted that in spite of those numbers, Gomez was a plenty serviceable ninth-inning option for the rebuilding Phillies in the first half last year. In 41 2/3 innings, he pitched to a 2.59 ERA, walked just 2.2 hitters per nine innings and logged a strong 53.1 percent ground-ball rate. And from 2013-15, Gomez posted a very nice 3.19 ERA in 217 1/3 innings in 143 appearances for the Phillies (including eight starts). Clearly, there’s a track record of success here, but the recent results are understandably concerning for the Phils.

If the Phillies do make a change, there are three reasonable alternatives already in the bullpen: right-handers Joaquin Benoit, Hector Neris and Edubray Ramos.

The 39-year-old Benoit has some experience pitching in the ninth, having collected 38 saves since the 2013 season began. Benoit has turned in six sub-3.00 ERA seasons in the past seven years while averaging an even 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in that time. Utilizing Benoit in the ninth inning would keep both Neris and Ramos from accruing saves early in their career as well, which could help to keep down their arbitration price tags. While it’s unlikely that that would be the sole factor in deciding to go with the most experienced option of the bunch, it could be perceived as an ancillary benefit for Phils decision-makers. Benoit is signed to a one-year deal, so the Phillies could use him in the ninth while a younger option gains a bit more experience, then look to trade Benoit this summer.

Neris might be the most logical option of the bunch, given his excellence in each of the past two seasons while serving in a late-inning role under Mackanin. The 27-year-old Neris has tallied 125 big league innings in his career to date, logging a collective 2.88 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate. His 11.4 K/9 rate and average 94.1 mph fastball from 2016 were both career-bests, and last year’s 16.3 percent swinging-strike rate checked in at a solid 33rd out of 180 qualified relievers (h/t: Fangraphs). Neris has yet to even reach two years of big league service time, so if he steps into the ninth inning successfully, he could theoretically be locking down games for the Phillies through 2021.

Ramos, too, could be a long-term option for the Phils, though he comes with far and away the least experience of the bunch. The 24-year-old has just 43 2/3 innings of Major League work under his belt to date, during which he’s logged a 3.50 ERA with a 44-to-12 K/BB ratio. Ramos, who has averaged 95.1 mph on his heater in his young career, was even more dominant in the minors last season, recording a 1.16 ERA with a 41-to-4 K/BB ratio in 38 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s controllable through the 2022 campaign, so like Neris, he could be viewed as a long-term closing option for the rebuilding Phillies, even if he admittedly seems like a long shot at present.

Even if nothing transpires today, a move seems very possible in the near future, barring a very quick turnaround from Gomez. All of that said, I’ll turn it over to everyone to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Poll: Grading The Cardinals’ Extension Of Yadier Molina

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Yadier Molina exudes excellence and personifies the Cardinal Way. He’s one of the best and most durable catchers in the game. He’s coming off a year in which he slashed a robust .307/.360/.427 and continued to earn plaudits for his work behind the plate and guidance of the pitching staff.

So, the three-year, $60MM deal he just signed to stay with the Cardinals through 2020 would seem at first glance to be a slam dunk. It’s a top-of-the-market AAV for a catcher, true, but also just a three-year commitment. For a player who’s an arguable Hall-of-Famer and undisputed franchise icon — and, reputedly, a clubhouse leader without peer — it seems like an easy gamble to make.

On the other hand, Molina will turn 35 in the middle of the season that just kicked off. He hasn’t hit double-digit home runs since 2013, which is also the last time his isolated slugging mark exceeded .120. Molina’s surge at the plate last year was fueled by a career-high .335 BABIP. His defensive productivity seems likely to slow down at least somewhat as the wear and tear catches up; his durability is a feather in the cap, on the one hand, but he has also logged 1,583 games behind the dish (including today’s game) in the majors.

Consider, too, the opportunity cost. Around this time last year, the division-rival Pirates got Francisco Cervelli — then on the heels of an outstanding 2015 season and having just begun his age-30 campaign — to agree to a three-year deal at nearly half ($31MM) the guarantee Molina received. While Molina certainly has a claim to receiving the league’s top annual salary for a catcher, it’s tough to promise that rate at his age, and it’ll certainly tie up payroll that could’ve gone elsewhere. Remember, too, that the Cards have one of the game’s best catching prospects in Carson Kelly waiting in the wings at Triple-A.

There’s a middle ground here, of course. Molina has always been fairly reliant on batting average to reach base, because he doesn’t walk all that much. But he has continued to carry an outstanding contact rate and showed no signs of slowing in that regard in 2016. While the power won’t likely return to even average levels, perhaps he can keep hitting at a solid-enough rate so long as he maintains his hand-eye coordination. Likewise, the dark arts of the catcher — receiving, blocking, throwing, calling pitches, and managing a staff — are perhaps more dependent upon a blend of mental acuity, hard-earned experience, and ingrained reflexes than are the tools of any other position. And Kelly’s presence can be seen as a positive; perhaps he’ll help keep Molina fresh while learning from the game’s top catching sensei. The Cardinals have acted to lock up other core players to more manageable salaries, so the team can probably afford a bit of an extravagance to keep a key veteran who’ll provide continuity and unrivaled leadership.

So, there are several ways to characterize this signing. How do you view it? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading Recent Extensions

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As usual, the offseason has brought a few fairly significant long-term deals. Though we haven’t seen any nine-figure strikes — yet, at least — teams have staked a variety of interesting long-term bets on players who weren’t particularly close to free agency.

Since the start of February, in particular, three players with multiple years of control remaining have received guarantees that secure their financial future. But how wise were these investments? While it’s easy to like most early-career extensions — they are typically reached with young players who have played well at the game’s highest level, after all — they don’t all work out. The budgetary impact will never be as large as a pact to keep a top star off the market (or to bring one in), but even these early-career deals turn non-obligatory control rights into massive financial commitments that can hinder organizational flexibility.

Here are the most recent deals, with polls for each asking you to grade the merit of the investment:

Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals: five years, $51MM with two options ($17MM, $18MM): The first-time arb-eligible righty could be on the cusp of blooming into an established, top-of-the-rotation arm at 25 years of age. This deal extends the club’s control span over Martinez by four years, so there’s clear upside here. But it also comes with a hefty up-front promise and passes the risks inherent to pitching on to the Cards. The closest comp to this agreement, Matt Harrison’s $55MM deal with the Rangers, shows that there’s downside as well.

(Poll link for app users.)

Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Rays: six years, $53.5MM with one option ($13MM): Kiermaier was a Super Two player, so this deal boosts Tampa Bay’s control by three seasons. Only one of those is left to the team’s discretion, leaving the organization fairly firmly committed to the defensive whiz. While his glove gives him a lofty floor, that’s also dependent upon maintained athleticism. And Kiermaier hasn’t yet shown he’s more than an average hitter. If he can do that and keep tracking down just about everything hit in his general direction, he could be a star.

(Poll link for app users.)

Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox: six years, $25MM with two options ($12.5MM, $14MM): Announced just yesterday, this deal is quite a bit different than the others. Anderson hasn’t even completed a full season in the majors, and remains a highly variable player despite the evident talent. Understandably, he could only secure about half the guarantee of the other players, though he did easily beat the prior record for a sub-1 MLB service extension (Chris Archer, $20MM). Notably, this contract only promises to pay Anderson through his arbitration-eligible seasons (assuming he’s able to remain in the majors from this point forward), meaning the South Siders only extended their control rights by two years but also didn’t have to promise to pay Anderson too far out.

(Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Top 2017-18 Free-Agent Starter?

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MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes just released the first run of his 2017-18 free-agent power rankings. While the list will obviously change quite a bit over the course of the season to come, it’s interesting to note that four outstanding pitchers open up at the front.

Really, every member of this impressive group of veteran starters could realistically end up on top of the list by season’s end (as could a few other players). Tim has already stated his views on the preliminary ordering; now it’s time for MLBTR’s readership to weigh in.

Here are the four hurlers, in Tim’s order, with a brief affirmative case for why each ought to be considered the frontrunner to become the best free-agent starter:

Jake Arrieta, Cubs: None of the other pitchers has done what Arrieta did in 2015, when he posted a 1.77 ERA over 229 innings and took the Cy Young over two outstanding competitors. While he showed some worrying signs over the second half last year, he’s still throwing premium stuff and has been a workhorse of late.

Yu Darvish, Rangers: If one of these hurlers can be said to have the most upside, perhaps it’s Darvish. He paces this group in generating swings and misses and converting those into strikeouts. If he can return to his early-career 200+ inning pace, all bets are off on his earnings.

Johnny Cueto, Giants (can opt out of current contract): Though his long MLB tenure makes it seem as if Cueto is older than the others on this list, that’s not really the case; he’s only 19 days senior to Arrieta. And he’s certainly the most accomplished of the group overall, having turned in three seasons of 200+-inning, sub-3.00 ERA ball over the past five years.

Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees: The arm health remains a long-term question, but at what point might Tanaka’s age and consistency push past that consideration? He did manage to turn in 199 2/3 frames last year, after all, and will pitch the entire 2017 season at 28 years of age. Over his 490 total MLB frames, Tanaka owns a strong 3.12 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and just 1.5 BB/9.

So, which of these hurlers do you see ending the year with the best free-agent case? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Sign Doug Fister?

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Needless to say, veteran righty Doug Fister didn’t have the platform year he hoped for. He managed only a 4.64 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and an uncharacteristically high 3.1 BB/9 last year for the Astros. He also hasn’t quite maintained his once-excellent groundball induction rates. But he did turn in 32 starts, and provide 180 1/3 innings, after two straight seasons in which he faced some limitations. And he was also able to boost his velocity somewhat; though it still fell shy of his already-low career peak, at least Fister showed that he wasn’t set to fall off a cliff in the velo department.

All in all, the table seemed to be set for another pillow contract. After all, though he also produced uninspiring results in 2015, Fister landed in the top ten of the National League Cy Young voting in the season prior. From the start of his career in 2009, though that top-quality 2014 campaign, Fister had contribute nearly one thousand innings of 3.34 ERA pitching. The track record, in other words, still seems good enough to warrant a major league opportunity.

Still, business has been slow all winter for the 6’8 right-hander. There was chatter at times about teams with interest — the Marlins, Pirates, Mariners, Padres, and Royals all reportedly had some connection to Fister — though momentum never seemed to develop. AteR this point, it’s not even clear whether he has received any MLB offers, let alone whether there’d still be one available now, with camp well underway.

Unless there’s some unreported inkling of retirement, it still seems likely that Fister will land somewhere over the next few weeks. Perhaps he’s waiting to see whether a golden opportunity develops due to injury; perhaps he’s still hoping a team steps forward with an appealing guarantee.

Let’s see what the MLBTR readership thinks about how things will shake out. In lining up the best suitors for a poll, we’ll assume that Fister is looking for a clear rotation spot and we won’t guess at any new injuries. Here goes (in alphabetical order):

Padres — While the team has added several veteran hurlers already, and proceeded to sign Jered Weaver after the point of the reported interest in Fister, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a possible fit. If nothing else, it’d be interesting to see the club fill its staff out entirely with free agents signed to one year deals. At this point, the interest level likely comes down to whether the team has enough interest in giving a shot to an in-house option such as Christian Friedrich, Tyrell Jenkins, or Zach Lee.

Reds — Likewise, though Cincinnati is said to be finished giving out MLB deals, this rotation won’t be finished until the deadline for submitting Opening Day rosters … and will likely change quite a bit thereafter. There’s arguably greater uncertainty in the Reds’ staff than even the Padres’ at this stage, with pitchers such as Tim Adleman, Robert Stephenson, and a variety of other younger pitchers duking it out with grizzled veteran Bronson Arroyo to establish places in the pecking order. At least two spots seem up for grabs; if the Reds don’t feel comfortable with any of their internal possibilities, it’s easy to imagine a pivot to Fister.

Pirates — This seems fairly unlikely, but perhaps there’s some daylight still for the Bucs to take on their latest reclamation project. There’s probably a reason it hasn’t happened already, but Pittsburgh could perhaps still reconsider the options on hand. Drew Hutchison has hardly guranteed himself a roster spot based on his recent track record, and the organization’s series of promising youngsters — highlighted by Tyler Glasnow — might be deemed best kept at Triple-A to open the season.

Rangers — Similarly, it’s a bit of a strain to see the Rangers lining up with Fister at this point. The club already added Andrew Cashner and the recovering Tyson Ross to join A.J. Griffin in the mix at the back of the rotation. But Cashner has experienced biceps soreness while Griffin has struggled early in camp, and it’s not clear whether the team wants to rely too much on Dillon Gee (who had offseason surgery) or one of its unestablished youngsters. That leaves a bit of room to imagine something coming together on Fister, though perhaps the Rangers would first consider the familiar Colby Lewis.

Rockies — Colorado doesn’t seem inclined to pursue an alternative route, but the organization remains hard to predict from the outside. Fister could make a great deal of sense, if the Rox come to believe that none of their top young arms — primarily, Jeff Hoffman, but also German Marquez or Kyle Freeland — is prepared to be leaned upon for the span of the season. If that’s the case, and Jordan Lyles isn’t deemed an adequate fill-in, then perhaps the towering sinkerballer could make sense.

Yankees — The Yanks might make better sense than any other team in baseball, if the team has some added funds to spare. With two rotation spots up for grabs, the club is hardly in sure hands. Adam Warren is a veteran option, but hasn’t had much recent success, while Luis Severino has gobs of talent but struggled last year. Other options — Chad Green, Luis Cessa, and Bryan Mitchell — have hardly staked obvious claims to a starting gig. With that much uncertainty, bringing on an established veteran could add some stability while also deepening the overall unit entering the season.

It’s certainly possible to imagine other teams — say, the Tigers, White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics, Brewers, Phillies, or Red Sox — emerging with interest.But in each of those cases, I think, it would likely require an injury or a major change of heart on an internal option to lead to an agreement. Certainly, there would be others if Fister is willing to head to the pen to function as a swingman. So, that’s my list, but feel free to debate alternatives in the comments.

Where do you think Fister will end up? (Link for app users.)

Possible Landing Spots For Pedro Alvarez

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Lefty slugger Pedro Alvarez is a limited player, but he’s just thirty years of age and is coming off of a season in which he slashed .249/.322/.504 with 22 long balls in just 376 plate appearances. Most of the damage, as usual, came against righty pitching. And Alvarez is best kept away from a fielding glove (though he did see time last year at third base). But he has actually generated positive baserunning ratings of late, and the overall package still makes him a potent DH option and bench bat — the same basic formula that landed him a $5.75MM contract last year from the Orioles.

On the one hand, we’ve seen other such hitters fall shy of expectations. Adam Lind, for example, took just $1.5MM from the Nationals. And older lefty sluggers such as Ryan Howard and Justin Morneau also remain available. (The right-handed Billy Butler, among others, also has yet to sign.) Of course, it’s easy to forget that Alvarez waited until March to sign last year, so perhaps it’d be unwise to count out agent Scott Boras’s ability to find money when it’s least expected.

As team sort through their internal options, perhaps an injury or renewed assessment could turn the tide for Alvarez. While it would be foolish to overstate his impact at this stage — he’s no longer an everyday third baseman who can provide over thirty long balls — there’s little reason to think that Alvarez isn’t a useful MLB player. And the fact that he can still handle third base in a pinch doesn’t hurt.

Here are seven landing spots that make some degree of sense; weigh in with your pick in the poll below.

  • White Sox [Current Depth Chart] — Chicago currently projects to have quite an unproven MLB roster on Opening Day, and yet more holes could open if the club pulls off a spring trade or two. Unless the team shifts Melky Cabrera to the DH hole, that spot is wide open at present. Adding the veteran hitter might help keep fans in the seats and ease the transition that the club is overseeing.
  • Twins [Current Depth Chart] — Though Kennys Vargas, Byung Ho Park, and Robbie Grossman currently factor in the picture as DH candidates in Minnesota, there has been some rumored interest — though there are also indications that it’s overstated. The Twins do have good reason to see what they have in that trio, though perhaps the club could also see the merit in adding a proven slugger to the stable.
  • Rangers [Current Depth Chart] — If we suppose that Shin-soo Choo is still deemed capable of playing the outfield without yet another injury, and that Texas still isn’t sold on Joey Gallo, then perhaps there’s still some room for Alvarez on the roster. Alvarez’s camp reportedly tried to get the Rangers to bite before they added Mike Napoli, but it’s not clear whether the interest as reciprocated.
  • Athletics [Current Depth Chart] — Catcher Steven Vogt and first baseman Yonder Alonso both hit from the left side, and each could spend time at DH, but adding Alvarez would give the team another weapon against righties. Even if power prospect Ryon Healy is on the roster, the right-handed hitter would still have plenty of opportunities at the corner infield spots as well as the DH hole.
  • Orioles [Current Depth Chart] — It’s a bit of a stretch at this point, but if Baltimore is willing to give Mark Trumbo time in right field, Alvarez could make a return. That’d likely mean punting on Rule 5 picks Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez, and perhaps passing over a third lefty hitting outfielder in Michael Bourn, but the O’s have not shied away from loading up on sluggers in recent years.
  • Mariners [Current Depth Chart] — This really comes down to one question: does Seattle fully believe in Dan Vogelbach? The young southpaw slugger is slated to battle for playing time with Danny Valencia at first base, but if the M’s feel he’s not quite ready to handle a significant load in the majors, then perhaps they could pivot to Alvarez.
  • Phillies [Current Depth Chart] — If there’s a National League team that could make some sense, it’s probably the Phils. While they’d like to see what Tommy Joseph can do at first, he’s hardly a slam dunk and currently lacks a platoon partner. The rebuilding club could split time there and perhaps see if Alvarez becomes a deadline trade chip.

Which team do you think will sign Alvarez? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Assessing The Matt Wieters Deal

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While the deal is still awaiting a physical to be finalized, we learned yesterday that the Nationals had agreed to a two-year, $21MM pact with Matt Wieters that also allows him to opt out of the second season (and second $10.5MM payday). As the Nationals wrap up that move, and begin looking ahead to perhaps one more roster tweak to come, it seemed like an opportune time to take two quick polls.

By most accounts, the Nats paid less than Wieters was expected to earn entering the winter. Despite lower-than-expected demand, there were other suitors still in play, so perhaps also the deal reflects a still-active market. And in the final analysis, it’s an objectively reasonable price tag that reflects Wieters’s abilities but also his limitations.

Still, market-value deals often make more sense for some teams than others. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs isn’t sold that the Nats were the right team to make a play for Wieters, given the presence of Derek Norris, Jose Lobaton, and Pedro Severino. On the other hand, there may well be other considerations — the front office’s assessment of Wieters’s pitcher-handling and pitch-calling abilities, a scouting assessment of his hitting, etc. — that could impact the analysis. (There’s plenty more discussion of Wieters’s overall value in the above-linked post on his signing, as well as in Cameron’s piece.)

Then, there’s the question of what the team does next. This signing would look somewhat different if, as various reports have hinted, the team goes on to move Norris (along with his $4.2MM arbitration salary and remaining season of control) as opposed to Lobaton (a lower-upside veteran who is also cheaper at $1.575MM and set for free agency next winter). And it would be another matter entirely if the move was designed in part to free up Severino, who currently features as a part of the organization’s long-term planning at the position, to a acquire a late-inning reliever.

Regardless of what happens with Severino, it’s likely that the team will still need to decide between Norris and Lobaton as a second backstop. Though both Wieters and Lobaton are switch-hitters, the former has thrived traditionally against lefties, while the latter has been better against right-handed pitching. Norris, meanwhile, has wide platoon splits that suggest he’s most effective against southpaws.

Since the Nats’ next step impacts the assessment of the deal with Wieters (assuming it’s finalized), we won’t ask a simple yes/no on whether it’s a good signing. Indeed, there are alternative viewpoints on which ensuing transaction truly matters most in assessing this deal, since it’s reasonable to argue that any trade involving Severino really isn’t dependent upon the addition of another short-term, non-optionable veteran. Instead, then, we’ll ask: how would you characterize the move at this point?

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