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Poll: Will The Dodgers Trade Yasmani Grandal?

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Yasmani Grandal has been among the best catchers in the majors during his three-year tenure with the Dodgers, but it’s possible he’ll don a different uniform next season. After the Dodgers lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Astros on Wednesday, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reported that the National League champions “may field offers for” Grandal this winter.

While the Dodgers will again be on the shortlist of legitimate championship contenders entering 2018, Grandal’s age-29 season, there’s some logic to the team parting with him before then. He was barely a factor in this year’s playoffs, for one, thanks to the emergence of Austin Barnes as manager Dave Roberts’ preferred option at catcher. The 27-year-old Barnes somewhat quietly turned in an outstanding regular season in his first extensive big league action, though he accrued 220 fewer plate appearances than Grandal along the way (262 to 482). But Barnes logged nearly all of the action at backstop in the postseason, racking up 52 PAs to Grandal’s 11.

Yasmani Grandal

Given Barnes’ excellent 2017 production and long-term team control (he’s not even scheduled to reach arbitration until 2020), the Dodgers may regard him as their behind-the-plate solution for the foreseeable future. Grandal, on the other hand, only has a year of control left, in which he’ll earn a projected $7.7MM in arbitration. That shouldn’t be an unpalatable sum for the big-spending Dodgers if they expect Grandal to continue seeing significant playing time next season. If he really has fallen out of favor, though, a trade could be in the offing.

In marketing Grandal, the Dodgers would be shopping a player who, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, has never been worse than an average major league hitter in any of his six seasons of action. The switch-hitting Grandal is coming off a year in which he registered a 102 wRC+, which was both above average for position players and especially for catchers, who posted a mean of 89. As effective as Grandal has been at the plate, there’s a case to be made that he has been even better behind it. Since debuting with the Padres in 2012, Grandal has been an elite pitch framer in each season, per both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner. Grandal also just wrapped up a third straight campaign in which he threw out more would-be base stealers (32 percent) than the typical catcher (27 percent).

It’s clear that 2017 was a solid all-around year for Grandal, though it did see him experience a notable offensive dropoff compared to the previous season. Grandal performed at a personal-best level across 457 PAs in 2016, swatting 27 home runs and hitting .228/.339/.477 – good for a 121 wRC+. He fell to .247/.308/.459 with 22 HRs in 482 trips to the plate this past season, though, thanks in part to career-worst walk (8.3 percent), strikeout (27 percent), chase (31.6 percent) and swinging-strike (11.9 percent) rates. The walk and chase rates were particularly alarming, given the vastly superior numbers he recorded in those departments a year ago (14 percent and 23.3 percent, respectively).  And when Grandal did put the bat on the ball in 2017, it made far less impact than in 2016. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Grandal’s average exit velocity tumbled from 91 mph to 87.9 mph, while his barrels per PA plummeted from 7.4 percent to 4.8 percent. As a result, his expected weighted on-base average cratered, going from to .363 to .288.

Any team interested in acquiring Grandal would be aware of the fact that he wasn’t at his best in 2017, yet they still may regard him as a more appealing option than the top impending free agent catchers – Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo (if he opts out of his contract with the Orioles) and Alex Avila – all of whom come with obvious flaws. At the same time, there appears to be a limited number of viable fits for Grandal. Non-contenders aren’t in position to surrender much for a player who will be a free agent in a year, which could leave playoff hopefuls like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Angels and Orioles (unless they’re ready to hand the reins to prospect Chance Sisco) among the most logical potential suitors. But it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers helping the Nats, a fellow NL power, improve their dire situation behind the plate, and the same applies to the division-rival D-backs and Rockies. As American League teams, the Angels and Orioles seem like more realistic possibilities, but their thin farm systems could stand in the way if the Dodgers were to seek youth in return for Grandal.

Should the Dodgers shop Grandal and fail to find an offer to their liking, retaining him wouldn’t exactly be a negative outcome. On paper, he and Barnes would continue to give the Dodgers an enviable backstop tandem in 2018, regardless of which of the two plays more, thereby increasing the team’s odds of winning a sixth straight NL West title.

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Dodgers trade Yasmani Grandal?
Yes 64.74% (6,192 votes)
No 35.26% (3,372 votes)
Total Votes: 9,564

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Michael Brantley’s Option

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Michael BrantleyWith free agency around the corner, the American League Central-winning Indians could be on the verge of losing a few notable contributors to their 2017 offense. Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson – who each posted above-average production over a combined 1,100-plus plate appearances this year – are slated to hit the open market, and it’s possible outfielder Michael Brantley will join them.

Unlike his three teammates, Brantley is controllable through 2018 (with a $12MM club option), but Cleveland brass has not indicated whether it’s going to bring him back. As of Oct. 19, the Indians were “working through” what to do with Brantley, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters.

Antonetti & Co. have until three days after the World Series to make a call on Brantley’s option, which comes with a $1MM buyout. If the Indians are confident Brantley will be consistently available in 2018, keeping him in the fold should be a no-brainer. The 30-year-old has been a quality regular over the past several seasons, after all, especially when he combined to slash a superb .319/.382/.494 with 38 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 1,272 PAs from 2014-15. Unfortunately, injuries have somewhat derailed Brantley’s career since that star-caliber two-year stretch, thus complicating the Indians’ decision.

The Tribe won an AL pennant and came within a victory of a World Series title in 2016, but the team did it without Brantley, who took just 41 trips to the plate and didn’t play past May 9. Shoulder problems troubled Brantley then, though his offseason recovery from surgery went well enough that he was able to make it back for the start of 2017.

In terms of production, this season represented a successful return for Brantley, who hit a respectable .299/.357/.444 with nine homers and 11 steals in 383 PAs. Availability was an issue again, though, as Brantley endured multiple stints on the disabled list with a right ankle sprain. Brantley’s second DL placement, on Aug. 9, brought an end to his regular season with nearly two months remaining in the campaign. Encouragingly, Brantley returned for the Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees and totaled 12 PAs in the series, yet his comeback didn’t mean his ankle woes were completely behind him. Shortly after Cleveland’s elimination, Brantley underwent ankle surgery, and he’s now in the early stages of a four- to five-month recovery.

With this year’s World Series set to wrap up Wednesday at the latest, the Indians have less than a week to determine whether an on-the-mend Brantley will be worth keeping around at a fairly high price. Ideally, retaining Brantley would help the Tribe’s offense overcome the potential departures of Santana, Bruce and Jackson. However, considering the Indians are entering the offseason without a lot of payroll space to work with, allocating $12MM to a player with injury questions may be a risk they elect not to take.

Will the Indians pick up Michael Brantley's option?
No 55.86% (3,185 votes)
Yes 44.14% (2,517 votes)
Total Votes: 5,702

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Assessing The Yankees’ Options At Third Base

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Now that the Yankees have wrapped up a successful 2017 season, the attention can shift fully to their efforts in 2018. Well, mostly. This is the era of responsible stewardship in the Bronx, so at least one eye will surely also train its gaze to the horizon.

As the team ponders its options at third base, then, it won’t simply be a matter of deciding which top free agent or trade candidate is best. On the face of things, the team is losing its third bagger to free agency and must find a replacement. And, indeed, mid-season acquisition Todd Frazier is headed to the open market. For a Yankees team that’s primed  to compete, that could mean its time to add a star. But there’s more at play here, making for a particularly interesting situation.

First, GM Brian Cashman has made clear that the Yankees’ payroll will not top $197MM. The Yanks are finally determined to get under the luxury tax line and seem quite committed to doing so. Given its slate of existing commitments, and assuming the team pays the full amount projected for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will have just under $145MM committed and the bulk of the roster accounted for. After accounting for pre-arb salaries and the standard medical and other employment allocations, the organization could have something in the realm of $35MM to play with — perhaps a bit more, if some of Jacoby Ellsbury’s salary can be moved — though the front office may also need to keep some powder dry for mid-season moves. While that’s still a healthy amount of wiggle room, since the Yanks will return quite a few key pieces, it creates some real constraints.

Second, it’s worth bearing in mind that next year’s free agent class offers some extremely exciting possibilities. Among the many superstars hitting the open market, barring extensions, will be Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson — two of the game’s very best third baggers. Two others, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon, will reach free agency in the ensuing winter. It’s difficult to structure near-term decisions around such hypothetical opportunities, of course, but the possibility of landing a star performer in the relatively near future could weigh in favor of some restraint on this year’s market.

Third, the Yankees may well actually already have their next stud already lined up. Gleyber Torres seemed on the verge of a call-up this past summer before going down to season-ending surgery. He’s expected to be prepared for a full and complete spring. But he’ll enter camp just a few months removed from his 21st birthday. Though the much-hyped prospect carried a .863 OPS at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2017, those 235 plate appearances represent the full sum of his upper-minors experience. He’s not even the only quality prospect that could be in position; Miguel Andujar was also excellent in the upper minors last year and even enjoyed a brief but exciting MLB debut.

Fourth, the Yanks may also already have a perfectly useful immediate option on hand. Chase Headley was dispossessed of the job at third when the team added Frazier. But he ended up turning in his best full season at the plate since re-signing with New York. The switch hitter did not grade out positively with the glove at third, but perhaps there’s still reason to believe he can play palatable defense entering his age-34 season. Notably, as has typically been the case throughout his career, Headley was particularly effective against right-handed pitching, posting a sturdy .279/.374/.405 slash line. That makes him a fairly easy player to platoon, perhaps increasing the universe of possibilities as Cashman weighs his options.

So, just what are Cashman’s options?

As always, it’s possible to imagine the team simply going out and signing the best available player in free agency. This year’s market is led by Mike Moustakas, the 29-year-old slugger. His profile is similar to that of Frazier: good power, generally solid glovework (though his metrics slipped in 2017), and on-base struggles. Frazier himself is another possibility, of course, and ought to be available on a shorter term and perhaps at a lower annual salary than will be required to land Moustakas. Those two likely represent the universe of plausible starters, however, unless Zack Cozart is willing to change positions (and teams like the Yankees show interest in trying him at third).

On the trade market, it’s really not yet clear what might be possible. Machado and Donaldson would be major prizes, but the Orioles and Blue Jays have given hints that they won’t be selling either player. (And they’d be especially hesitant to allow them to go to the Yankees, surely.) Eugenio Suarez is a controllable piece coming off of a nice year, an perhaps he could be had for the right price, but it’ll be steep. Adrian Beltre would make for a nice target, but the Rangers aren’t likely to deal him. The Cardinals may have a bit of an infield logjam, potentially freeing Jedd Gyorko or Matt Carpenter, but it’s not yet clear how they’ll proceed. Maikel Franco could conceivably be dangled by the Phillies, though perhaps taking a shot on a talented but inconsistent young player isn’t the right approach at this stage.

Acquiring a new regular would mean not only paying a hefty acquisition price, but also figuring out what to do with Headley. He could be traded, but that would likely mean paying down some of his $13MM salary. Committing to a player such as Moustakas may not be all that desirable given New York’s excellent young options. Plus, his on-base woes come with real risk. Even Frazier could prove a questionable investment and inflexible asset, though at least he’d pair more naturally with Headley and first baseman Greg Bird and wouldn’t require such a lengthy commitment. While the trade side is worth considering, it’s also entirely up in the air at this point. Regardless, if the Yankees are going to make a big move at third — potentially blocking Torres — then perhaps it ought to be saved for next winter.

Under the circumstances, then, the Yanks might be better-served by looking instead at a platoon candidate with broader function. Yunel Escobar could provide a veteran accompaniment to Headley, though perhaps he’ll prefer to join a team that’s willing to promise him more playing time. The versatile Eduardo Nunez might be an interesting option for New York, as he’d also offer some insurance elsewhere around the diamond while upgrading over Ronald Torreyes as the primary utilityman. Asdrubal Cabrera might also make sense if his option is declined (or even if he’s dangled in trade) by the cross-town Mets.

On the trade market, possible options to join Headley at third while also seeing action elsewhere could include Josh Harrison — who’d have the highest acquisition cost and would perhaps take primary duty at the job — as well as Jed Lowrie, Logan Forsythe, David Freese, and old friend Yangervis Solarte (the player dealt to acquire Headley). Nicholas Castellanos and Martin Prado are among other possible trade targets, but the former doesn’t seem to have the glove for third and the latter is coming off of a poor and injury-riddled campaign, though as with Solarte he’s a player the Yankees know well.

That largely covers the array of outside options. Of course, it’s conceivable too that the Yanks will essentially just return the job to Headley while awaiting the mid-season arrival of its youngsters (Torres, in particular) and utilize the existing financial resources to address other areas of need. How do you see things playing out? (Link for app users.)

What Will The Yankees Do At Third Base?
Roll with Headley and the prospects. 69.87% (7,634 votes)
Get a new full-time player. 17.02% (1,860 votes)
Find a platoon mate for Headley. 13.11% (1,432 votes)
Total Votes: 10,926

Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The 2017 season will culminate in an epic World Series, matching the Dodgers against the Astros.  It is the first time since 1970 that the Fall Classic has featured two teams that each won 100 games or more games — L.A. will have homefield advantage, as the Dodgers’ 104-58 record topped the Astros’ 101-61 mark.

After winning the NL West title and falling short in each of the last four postseasons, the Dodgers finally broke through this year to capture their first National League pennant since 1988.  The club overcame scores of injuries (38 DL stints, the most of any team in baseball) to achieve their success, though obviously having the game’s largest payroll goes a long way in securing roster depth.  Beyond the expected contributions from established stars like Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Justin Turner, the Dodgers were also buoyed by Corey Seager’s excellent sophomore year, rookie Cody Bellinger’s 39 homers, Yasiel Puig’s bounce-back year, and utilityman Chris Taylor’s emergence as an everyday threat.  If this wasn’t enough, the Dodgers added Yu Darvish at the trade deadline to enhance an already-outstanding rotation.

This is the Dodgers’ 19th World Series appearance, tied with the Cardinals for the third-most in history.  By contrast, this is only the Astros’ second trip to the Fall Classic, though they now have the unique distinction of being the only franchise to represent both the American League and National League in the World Series.

This pennant represents the culmination of the Astros’ scorched-earth rebuild under GM Jeff Luhnow.  Due to a complete focus on building up the farm system, the Astros went only 162-324 from 2011-13, a brutal stretch of play that saw fan interest in Houston almost evaporate and Luhnow’s methods questioned by many around the game.  As with last year’s champion Cubs, however, a long rebuild resulted in an enviable core of young talent.  George Springer, Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Alex Bregman and AL MVP favorite Jose Altuve are all homegrown Astros, and the team further supplemented that core with under-the-radar trade pickups (i.e. Marwin Gonzalez, Chris Devenski) and bigger-ticket acquisitions (Yuli Gurriel, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran).  The final piece of the puzzle was trading for Justin Verlander at almost literally the last second prior to the August 31st waiver deadline, and Verlander has been nothing short of spectacular since coming to Houston.

With two days to go before Keuchel vs. Kershaw at Dodger Stadium in Game One, we post the question…what is your prediction for the 2017 Series?  (link to poll for MLBTR mobile app users)

Who Will Win The World Series?
Dodgers in six games 32.49% (6,716 votes)
Astros in six games 24.80% (5,127 votes)
Astros in seven games 17.11% (3,537 votes)
Dodgers in five games 12.27% (2,537 votes)
Dodgers in seven games 7.24% (1,496 votes)
Astros in five games 3.38% (698 votes)
Dodgers in four games 1.79% (371 votes)
Astros in four games 0.93% (192 votes)
Total Votes: 20,674

Poll: The Next Red Sox Manager

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The Red Sox moved on from manager John Farrell following the team’s exit in the American League Division Series, putting Boston in the hunt for a new skipper for the first time since 2012. The decision wasn’t entirely unexpected — many reports had suggested that Farrell could be on the hot seat if the team endured a second consecutive exit in the Division Series, and Farrell was put in place by former general manager Ben Cherington as opposed to current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Dombrowski will now have the opportunity to make his own hire and install a manager of his choosing in the dugout. And although Boston’s managerial post was vacated more recently than the Tigers, Mets or Phillies, it’s seemed as if the Sox are choosing from a more limited field of candidates than the other clubs seeking a new skipper. Reports have indicated that Astros bench coach Alex Cora, Diamondbacks bench coach Ron Gardenhire and recently dismissed Tigers manager Brad Ausmus are the the three likeliest candidates to replace Farrell. Dombrowski did tell reporters yesterday that he’s still deciding whether to interview others, but each of the three apparently leading candidates has reportedly had an interview.

[Related: The Red Sox’ Managerial Search]

Ausmus, of course, is no stranger to Dombrowski after managing the Tigers for four seasons. Dombrowski hired Ausmus while serving as general manager of the Tigers and worked with him until August of 2015 when Dombrowski was dismissed from his post and replaced by longtime assistant GM Al Avila. Ausmus doesn’t have the managerial experience that Gardenhire has, but he’s managed a team more recently and is likely more in tune with analytical data. MLB Network’s Peter Gammons reported that Ausmus also thoroughly impressed the Sox when he interviewed there in 2012 and would’ve been their skipper had they not been able to pry Farrell away from the Blue Jays. He’s also been tied to the Mets’ post.

Gardenhire managed the Twins for 13 seasons, giving Dombrowski an up-close look as arguably his Tigers’ top division rival. Though he’s viewed more as an “old school” baseball mind, Gardenhire is renowned for his ability to connect with players and maintain a clubhouse. He managed the Twins to a winning record over his 13 years at the helm and won the American League Central in six of his first nine seasons. Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has called him one of the “final three” for the job (via Twitter). Gardenhire is also reportedly a candidate for the Tigers.

Cora, meanwhile, has never managed at the big league level but has managed in winter ball and is Houston skipper A.J. Hinch’s right-hand man. He’s probably the most analytically inclined candidate of the bunch and has been touted as a future big league manager for years now. He’s been popular already, drawing interest from both the Mets and the Tigers in their respective searches for a manager. Evan Drellich of CSN New England has written that Cora is the favorite, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has also suggested as much (on Twitter).

All that said, let’s open this up for debate (link to poll for MLBTR mobile app users)…

Who should the Red Sox hire as their next manager?
Alex Cora 53.75% (5,891 votes)
Brad Ausmus 21.64% (2,372 votes)
Ron Gardenhire 18.07% (1,980 votes)
Other (Specify in comments) 6.53% (716 votes)
Total Votes: 10,959

Poll: Should The Nationals Retain Dusty Baker?

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It goes without saying that the Nationals’ 2017 season ended in bitter disappointment, as the organization once again failed to make it out of the NLDS despite cruising to its fourth NL East title in the past six campaigns. The exit, in a wild and mistake-filled Game 5 loss, was yet stranger and more baffling than the previous ones — which, surely, is saying something.

While manager Dusty Baker has received quite a lot of criticism, both this year and in the past, he clearly did not deserve all the blame. Despite some questionable high-leverage personnel moves — everyone’s favorite area to nitpick — Baker was not the direct cause of the major on-field failures that led to the Nats’ demise. And he has also guided the club successfully over the course of the regular season, particularly in light of the disarray that existed when he took over following the inglorious exit of Matt Williams. At the same time, Baker obviously hasn’t yet guided the Nationals out of their postseason malaise, continuing his own uninspiring track record in October.

Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post discusses some key considerations at play regarding Baker. Of particular note: there was at least some level of discord between the skipper and club ownership over the way mid-season extension talks played out. That certainly follows a hard-to-deny trend of managerial tensions over the years. At the same time, there’s a need to chart a course for a critical offseason and 2018 campaign — rather than allowing any uncertainty to linger — while also perhaps attempting to find some stability in the dugout for the first time since the franchise landed in D.C. You’ll certainly want to give Svrluga’s piece a full read for all the nuance at play here.

No matter what, it seems prudent for the team to act relatively quickly and decisively. Making a change away from Baker would be a decision fraught with risk, including from inside the clubhouse. Negotiating with him may or may not be straightforward, and itself comes with some risk of a collapse (given the track record of ownership with managerial dealings). Several other teams are already deep into searches for new skippers, which could take several possible alternatives off the table.

Needless to say, there are many variables still at play. But the essential question remains whether the Nationals wish to retain Baker. Should they?

Should the Nationals try to retain Dusty Baker?
Yes 52.75% (5,579 votes)
No 47.25% (4,997 votes)
Total Votes: 10,576

Poll: Improving Boston’s Offense

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From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox didn’t thrive in Year 1 of the post-David Ortiz era. While Boston finished 93-69 and won its second straight American League East title in 2017, the club wasn’t the hitting juggernaut it had been throughout Ortiz’s tenure from 2003-16. The Red Sox led the majors in runs scored six times during that 14-year span, including in 2016, and only landed outside the majors’ top 10 in runs and FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric one time apiece – in 2014, when they placed 18th and 25th in those categories.

This year’s Red Sox, whom Houston dismissed from the playoffs in a four-game ALDS, did cross the plate the 10th-most times in the league, but they fell to 22nd in wRC+ after the Ortiz-led outfit ranked first last season. The majority of the Red Sox’s regulars posted mediocre numbers at the plate, and according to Statcast’s xwOBA metric (via Baseball Savant), the only ones who outperformed their results were Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez.

An Ortiz-esque thumper obviously would have been of use to the Red Sox this year, and it’s possible president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will attempt to find one in the offseason. That said, the vast majority of Boston’s position player group already looks settled for next year. Outfielders Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, third baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Ortiz’s DH successor, Ramirez, are locks. Sure, the Red Sox could stand to improve offensively behind the plate, where catchers Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined to rank a below-average 19th out of the majors’ 30 teams in wRC+, but each offered significant value in the pitch-framing department (per Baseball Prospectus). And with Jonathan Lucroy having fallen off in 2017, there don’t appear to be any surefire upgrades set to hit free agency next month.

J.D. Martinez

While the aforementioned players are good bets to return to Boston next year, the status of center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. looks less certain. The Red Sox could trade the 27-year-old Bradley, who’s controllable for three more seasons, move Benintendi from left to center and reel in an offensive force such as J.D. Martinez or Justin Upton via free agency to join Beninendi and Betts in the grass. Martinez and Upton (if he opts out of his contract with the Angels) will come at much higher prices than Bradley, who will earn around $6MM in 2018, but the righty-swingers would likely mash at Fenway Park. And it’s worth noting that Dombrowski has already acquired Martinez in the past. When he was the Tigers’ general manager in 2014, Dombrowski took a flyer on the then-struggling Martinez.

Despite Dombrowski’s familiarity with Martinez, it’s possible the Red Sox will elect to stick with Bradley. Although he had a subpar year offensively, batting just .245/.323/.402 in 541 plate appearances, he was an easily above-average hitter the previous two seasons. Further, even if he doesn’t revisit his 2015-16 levels with the bat, Bradley’s still capable of providing surplus value in other ways. In fact, Bradley ranked third at his position in Defensive Runs Saved (nine) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (4.2) in 2017. He also fared nicely on the bases, placing 11th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. So, even in a down 2017, Bradley was still part of the overall solution for the Sox.

It’s up in the air whether Boston will have a new outfield alignment next year, whereas change at first base looks highly likely. Moreland is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Red Sox don’t seem to have a ready-made replacement on hand. Prospect Sam Travis, 24, is fresh off an uninspiring year at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he hit for almost no power across 342 PAs (six home runs, .105 ISO), and didn’t distinguish himself during an 83-PA major league debut in Boston. The Red Sox would be hard pressed to count on him, then, which could point them toward free agency or the trade market for a first baseman.

Free agents-to-be Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce and Yonder Alonso all had successful offensive seasons in 2017 and could land on Boston’s radar. On the other hand, Dombrowski has never been shy about making deals and is only a year removed from swinging a blockbuster with the rebuilding White Sox, who have a star first baseman and potential trade candidate in Jose Abreu. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Abreu and his two remaining seasons of team control would warrant a quality haul, but the right-handed slugger and Fenway Park would make for an enticing match.

Whether the Red Sox make a play for Abreu or another high-profile hitter over the winter, it does seem fair to expect an offensive upgrade to come in some form. What do you think Dombrowski will do?

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Red Sox make any major offseason moves to improve their offense?
Yes 88.29% (5,524 votes)
No 11.71% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 6,257

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: How Much Will Eric Hosmer Earn In Free Agency?

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We’ve heard varying suggestions on just how much money soon-to-be free agent Eric Hosmer may be seeking, or may command, on the open market. That’ll all be sorted out when the negotiations start in earnest, but it’s fun to begin thinking about it now.

We’re now just a few weeks away now from the start of free agency, after all. First, the Royals will issue a qualifying offer — which will be at a $17.4MM rate. Hosmer, inevitably, will reject it, making him a free agent just weeks after his 28th birthday.

By now, Hosmer’s broad profile is well-known. The former third overall draft pick played in all 162 games this year, slashing a robust .318/.385/.498 and banging 25 home runs for the second consecutive season. That’s quite a bit more than he has produced previously, though Hosmer has had other solid seasons at the plate.

The question teams will be asking is whether there’s reason to believe that Hosmer can maintain that level of output. He rode a .351 batting average on balls in play in 2017, steadily outpacing his .316 career rate. And Hosmer has stayed within the same general K/BB range as ever, while continuing to put the ball on the ground over half the time. His hard-hit rate dropped below thirty percent for the first time since his debut season. When he did put the ball in the air, it went out of the park over twenty percent of the time for the second consecutive season, though it’s still fair to wonder whether that’s sustainable.

There are other factors, too, of course. Hosmer is no longer a double-digit annual stolen base threat and hasn’t always drawn strong reviews from baserunning metrics. Likewise, defensive metrics have never matched his generally positive reputation with the glove. In these areas, perhaps, Hosmer’s reputation outpaces what some of the numbers say — as a result, he hasn’t even yet cracked 10 fWAR over his career — although these are among the most controversial areas of sabermetric analysis.

Perhaps the most interesting concept, though, is the idea that Hosmer delivers value that outpaces his direct, on-the-field contributions. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star just published an interesting, though eminently arguable look at the evident position that super-agent Scott Boras intends to take on the matter this fall. Most intriguingly, Boras is said to be readying for an attempt at quantifying the ways in which Hosmer’s halo adds value by producing “a metric on intangibles.”

Mellinger cites an executive that thinks Boras will be looking for something like $20MM annually on a decade-long term. That’s quite an ask for a first baseman with the stat line of Hosmer’s — particularly in a day and age when a far superior hitter such as Edwin Encarnacion can only get $20MM over three years (albeit at a significantly older age) and with a number of other quality bats available in free agency.

Plenty of less-than-amazing batters have taken down big money over long terms, though typically such players were expected to deliver significant value in the field and on the bases. Jason Heyward, for example, got $184MM over eight years (plus two opt out opportunities). But Heyward was only 26 and was one of the game’s most valued defenders. Oh, and he also carried a lifetime 118 wRC+ to that point — clearly superior to Hosmer’s 111 wRC+ career mark, though the latter did have the bigger offensive platform season.

We aren’t going to get a sneak peek at Boras’s binder. But Mellinger lays out the broad case for Hosmer to out-earn his prior productivity:

But consider this. The Royals built their success, in large part, on intangibles. How much did they talk about clubhouse friendships, of bonds formed in the minor leagues, and of the joy they found in playing for each other?

For argument’s sake, let’s assume that was overstated, and that the parade happened because of athleticism and relief pitching more than anything else. But you can’t have watched the Royals’ rise without believing the other stuff had a part in it, too. The resiliency in the comebacks, the consistent performance in the biggest moments.

The Royals had a parade because of these things, the team welcoming in record attendance and interest.

Shouldn’t the players be rewarded, too?

Do you buy that? Even a little? How do you value it? And how do you value the stat line you expect Hosmer to put up? Rolling it all together, just how much will he be worth on the open market? (App users can click here for the poll.)

How Much Will Eric Hosmer Earn In Free Agency?
$100MM to $125MM 33.48% (3,205 votes)
$75MM to $100MM 29.28% (2,803 votes)
$125MM to $150MM 18.64% (1,784 votes)
$50MM to $75MM 10.28% (984 votes)
$150MM or more 8.33% (797 votes)
Total Votes: 9,573

Poll: The Future Of Miami’s Outfield

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Those who have visited this website with any regularity over the past few months know that Marlins outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna have frequently come up as potential trade chips. With the MLB offseason set to begin in earnest in a few weeks, questions regarding the trio will continue to abound, especially with a fresh ownership group at the helm. While the Marlins’ new face of baseball operations, part-owner Derek Jeter, essentially did nothing but win during his acclaimed career as the Yankees’ shortstop from 1995-2014, he’s likely in for some tough times in Miami.

The Marlins’ most recent playoff trip came in 2003 – a season in which they knocked off Jeter & Co. in the World Series – and given their limited talent in the majors, a weak farm system that Baseball America ranks last in the sport and a dire financial situation, the future Hall of Famer’s newest chapter in the game will begin with at least a few lean years. Jeter realizes that, judging by some of the comments he made during the introductory press conference he and principal owner Bruce Sherman held in Miami last week. Although Jeter was reluctant to say that losing will continue for the Marlins in the near term, he did admit that there’s a need to “rebuild the organization,” adding that “there’s going to be at times unpopular decisions that we make on behalf of the organization.”

To a Marlins fan base that loathed the franchise’s prior owner, Jeffrey Loria, in part because of his penny-pinching ways, there probably wouldn’t be a less popular move than trading Stanton – especially after he enjoyed an MVP-caliber 2017 in which he smashed a league-high 59 home runs. But getting out from under at least some of the $295MM he could rake in through 2028 would improve the franchise’s bottom line, so it seems likely Miami will consider offers for the 27-year-old. In theory, Stanton’s full no-trade rights – not to mention an opt-out clause after 2020 – could scuttle a potential deal, but it doesn’t seem he’d stand in the way of a swap if an acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful baseball into the fall.

Marlins outfielders

“I don’t want to rebuild. I’ve lost for seven years,” the right fielder said last month.

Despite their best efforts, Yelich and Ozuna have joined Stanton in doing plenty of losing as Marlins. Considering their affordability, moving either would be far less complicated for Miami than trading Stanton, and it would beef up the team’s farm system.

Yelich, the 25-year-old center fielder, has been worth 4.5 fWAR in three of four seasons since becoming a full-time major leaguer (including in 2017) and is signed to a palatable deal. He’s due a guaranteed $43.5MM through 2021 and will collect either a $15MM salary or a $1.25MM buyout in 2022. Yelich is all the more appealing when considering the best outfielders who could hit free agency next month (J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Lorenzo Cain) are already over 30 and will rake in far richer contracts than his.

Ozuna doesn’t come with Yelich-esque team control, but the left fielder still has two arbitration-eligible years remaining after making $3.5MM in 2017, a career season. Across 159 games and 679 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old slashed .312/.376/.548 with 37 homers – much better production than he put up over the previous four years, though he was still a fairly respectable contributor from 2013-16. With an appreciable raise on the way this offseason and a trip to free agency only a couple years off, now may be the time for Miami to wave goodbye to the Scott Boras client.

There are other players the Marlins figure to market in the next few months, but their highest-profile chips are their starting outfielders, a trio that hit a combined .288/.368/.519 this year and topped the NL in fWAR (16.1). Marlins fans may not like it, but with the franchise going in a new direction, it stands to reason Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna have lined up in the same outfield together for the last time. Which player(s) do you think the Fish will part with in the offseason?

(Poll link for app users)

Which outfielder(s) will the Marlins trade?
More than one 44.78% (3,977 votes)
Stanton 26.26% (2,332 votes)
Ozuna 12.78% (1,135 votes)
Yelich 8.24% (732 votes)
None 7.95% (706 votes)
Total Votes: 8,882

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Who Will Win The World Series?

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Aside from Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton’s pursuit of 60 home runs, the final day of Major League Baseball’s regular season won’t bring much drama. Colorado on Saturday became the last team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot and will be one of 10 clubs vying for World Series glory over the next month-plus. Here’s a rundown of the participants by league and seeding:

National League

1.) Los Angeles Dodgers (record: 103-58; most recent title: 1988): The Dodgers are loaded with stars and depth, which explains how they easily exceeded the 100-win mark despite enduring a 1-15 stretch from Aug. 26 through Sept. 11. They recovered from that nightmarish 16-game showing over the season’s final couple weeks and once again look formidable entering the postseason. While the Dodgers have scored the second-fewest runs of this year’s playoff teams, they’ve still managed to pace all NL clubs in position player fWAR. Plus, with a Clayton Kershaw-fronted rotation and a Kenley Jansen-led bullpen, their staff is atop the NL in pitching fWAR.

2.) Washington Nationals (record: 97-64; most recent title: never): The Nationals cruised to an NL East crown this year despite losing center fielder Adam Eaton in April and having to go without arguably their best player, right fielder Bryce Harper, from mid-August until late September. Harper suffered a knee injury that looked like a season-ender when it happened, and while the missed time derailed his MVP chances, he’s back to lead a lineup that also includes other standouts in Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman. On the pitching side, it seems ace and Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer avoided a serious hamstring injury during his start on Saturday. If that’s the case, Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez could be the premier starting trio in the playoffs. They’ll hand off to a bullpen that has featured offered plenty of shaky performances in 2017, though midseason additions Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have helped stabilize the Nationals’ relief corps.

3.) Chicago Cubs (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2016): At this time a year ago, Chicago was putting the finishing touches on a 103-win regular season and preparing to enter the playoffs as the odds-on favorite. Ultimately, the Cubs lived up to the billing last fall and broke a 108-year title drought in an unforgettable World Series against the Indians. They haven’t been as sharp this year, owing in part to worse performances from their pitching and defense, but are still laden with talent. There’s no shortage of quality position players on hand, including reigning MVP Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, but the Cubs will need more from their staff – particularly Jake Arrieta, who’s dealing with a hamstring issue right now, and Jon Lester.

4.) Arizona Diamondbacks (record: 92-69; most recent title: 2001): One of this year’s surprise teams, the Diamondbacks rode an underrated starting staff and a top 10 offense (by runs scored) to a playoff berth. Starters Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin and Taijuan Walker have all turned in good to great seasons, which is why the D-backs’ starters lead the NL in fWAR. They also have a pair of offensive superstars in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though he had a horrid September that likely ruined his MVP chances, and outfielder J.D. Martinez. The latter has been a revelation since coming over from the Tigers in a July trade, having smashed 29 home runs in 61 games and batted .304/.369/.746 in 255 plate appearances. If you’re looking for a potential Achilles’ heel, no playoff entrant has a worse wRC+ (84) against left-handed pitchers than Arizona. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a team that will face the Dodgers, whose southpaws include Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson, if it wins the NL wild-card game.

5.) Colorado Rockies (record: 87-74; most recent title: never): Primarily on account of NL MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies are near the top of the league in runs scored, which is what you’d expect from a team that plays half its games at Coors Field. The Rockies managed to break a seven-year playoff skid this season largely because of an improved pitching staff that sits eighth in the majors in fWAR. Still, despite the presence of Jon Gray, their rotation doesn’t look particularly imposing relative to other playoff teams’ staffs. They do, however, feature a few highly capable relievers in Greg Holland, Chris Rusin, Pat Neshek and Jake McGee.

(Poll link for app users)

Who will win the NL?
Dodgers 34.60% (5,225 votes)
Cubs 24.15% (3,648 votes)
Nationals 23.72% (3,583 votes)
Diamondbacks 14.12% (2,132 votes)
Rockies 3.41% (515 votes)
Total Votes: 15,103

 

American League

1.) Cleveland Indians (record: 101-60; most recent title: 1948): At 48-45, the reigning AL champions were a mere three games above .500 on July 18. Since then, they’ve run roughshod over the rest of the league en route to a 53-15 mark, including a historic 22-game winning streak from Aug. 22 to Sept. 14. The Indians lost a meaningless game to the White Sox on Saturday, but that was just their fourth defeat in the past 35 contests. Needless to say, they’re heading into the playoffs on a roll. As you’d expect, Cleveland’s roster is chock-full of excellence. MVP hopeful Jose Ramirez and all-world shortstop Francisco Lindor are at the helm of a talent-rich offense, one that supports what could be an all-time great pitching staff from top to bottom. Ace/Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, righty Carlos Carrasco and super reliever Andrew Miller, one of the faces of last year’s postseason, deservedly grab the most headlines, but good luck finding any weak links among the other pitchers the Tribe will use in the playoffs.

2.) Houston Astros (record: 100-61; most recent title: never): With a league-high 892 runs and a 121 wRC+, it’s a wonder how anyone gets the Astros out. Much of the damage has come from AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, the latter of whom missed significant time earlier this season, but ancillary pieces such as Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel have all been no worse than very good at the plate. And then there’s the one-two pitching punch of recently acquired ace Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, not to mention a deep starting staff/bullpen behind them. If there’s one big concern here, it’s that Houston may be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

3.) Boston Red Sox (record: 93-68; most recent title: 2013): This year’s Red Sox have deviated from past Boston teams that used the likes of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez to pound opponents into submission. In fact, this is the first playoff-bound Red Sox club since 1995 to qualify for the postseason without scoring at least 800 runs. Nevertheless, they have several especially well-rounded position players (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi and the banged-up Dustin Pedroia, to name a few) who have done enough in the field to make Boston an elite defensive outfit. That defense supports the AL’s foremost southpaw, Chris Sale, and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. Boston is entering the playoffs with some concerns in its rotation, though, including the recent struggles of Sale and the yearlong issues 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has had. Fortunately for the Sox, starter Drew Pomeranz quelled some late-season concerns with an encouraging start against the Astros on Saturday.

4.) New York Yankees (record: 90-71; most recent title: 2009): Baby Bombers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez have more than lived up to the hype this season, combining for 85 home runs and 11.7 fWAR in 1,203 PAs. Fifty-one of those long balls have come from Judge, an OPS machine and an AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in whose 8.2 fWAR leads the majors. The rest of the Yankees’ offense isn’t exactly subpar, either, as a laundry list of their other hitters have notched above-average seasons at the plate. And New York’s pitching staff could be built for October, with an incredibly strong bullpen and a rotation that features perhaps the AL’s third-best starter, Luis Severino. One of the major questions regarding the Yankees is which versions of Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka will show up in the postseason – if the team gets by the wild-card game, that is. Gray allowed between four and six earned runs in three of five September starts, while Tanaka was a mixed bag throughout the regular season. He did conclude the slate with a seven-inning, 15-K shutout against the Blue Jays on Friday, though.

5.) Minnesota Twins (record: 84-77; most recent title: 1991): In terms of teams, there probably hasn’t been a better story during the regular season than the Twins, who were 103-game losers and owners of the majors’ worst record a year ago. Adding to the improbability of their Cinderella run to the playoffs, the Twins were sellers at this year’s trade deadline, when they dealt starter Jaime Garcia to their wild-card opponent, the Yankees, and Kintzler to the Nationals. However, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Joe Mauer & Co. were undeterred in the face of those deals and the late-summer absence of slugging third baseman Miguel Sano, who missed over a month with a left shin injury but just returned this week. Given its relatively underwhelming pitching staff, Minnesota is obviously a long shot to claim its first World Series in 26 years. For now, the Twins are focused on the Yankees, who have historically owned Minnesota in the playoffs. But New York’s past triumphs came during series. The wild-card round is a one-off, increasing the odds of an upset. The Twins’ No. 1 starter, Ervin Santana, allowed two or fewer runs in 20 of 33 starts during the regular season. If he’s that stingy against the Yankees on Tuesday – an admittedly tall order – an upset could be in the offing.

(Poll link for app users)

Who will win the AL?
Indians 47.14% (7,512 votes)
Astros 24.11% (3,841 votes)
Yankees 15.24% (2,428 votes)
Red Sox 8.73% (1,391 votes)
Twins 4.78% (762 votes)
Total Votes: 15,934

 

And now for the most important question (poll link for app users)…

Who will win the World Series?
Indians 34.86% (4,899 votes)
Dodgers 14.81% (2,081 votes)
Astros 11.70% (1,645 votes)
Cubs 11.46% (1,611 votes)
Yankees 10.37% (1,458 votes)
Red Sox 5.27% (741 votes)
Nationals 4.68% (658 votes)
Twins 2.87% (403 votes)
Diamondbacks 2.85% (401 votes)
Rockies 1.12% (157 votes)
Total Votes: 14,054
Show all

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