MLBTR Polls

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Issue Michael Saunders A Qualifying Offer?

By Mark Polishuk | September 25, 2016 at 9:45pm CDT

Back on August 16, I posted a forecast of which free agents could receive qualifying offers from their teams this offseason. Michael Saunders was listed as one of my “easy calls” to receive the one-year, $16.7MM contract, with one important caveat. Saunders, at that point, had been in a month-long slump, so I noted that the Blue Jays could re-consider issuing Saunders a QO if his slump continued, given his lack of track record as an upper-tier hitter.

Well, fast-forward six weeks and Saunders’ bat has yet to wake up. In 27 games between August 16 and September 23, Saunders is hitting just .207/.286/.427 with four homers over 92 plate appearances. In the second half altogether, Saunders has contributed a .179/.284/.375 slash line over 195 PA, though eight of his 24 homers on the season have come since the All-Star break.

So while Saunders has retained some of his pop (he has a respectable .196 isolated slugging mark in the second half) since the Midsummer Classic, the rest of his batting numbers have fallen off the table. This has made Saunders a sub-replacement level player for the Jays, since if Saunders isn’t hitting, he can’t contribute much on the basepaths or as a corner outfielder. An above-average baserunner early in his career according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric, Saunders has unsurprisingly been subpar in that category since tearing his meniscus during a freak Spring Training accident in 2015 and subsequently missing much of that season due to knee problems. It’s fair to guess that the knee injury has also contributed to Saunders’ poor defense, as his minus-9 Defensive Runs Scored and -12.1 UZR/150 this season in the outfield is well below his pre-meniscus tear career standard as a decent left fielder and a very good right fielder.

As it pertains to Saunders’ free agent stock, teams will certainly think hard about offering a big multi-year deal to a player who may already be turning into a bat-only type as he enters his age-30 season, especially when his bat may not be that potent. If Saunders and his representatives at Meister Sports Management feel that these question marks and the QO-attached draft pick compensation hanging over his free agency could limit his market, he could accept the Jays’ qualifying offer and aim for 2017 as that true breakout year where he is both healthy and consistently productive.

If the Blue Jays think there’s a chance Saunders accepts a QO, would they be comfortable offering it? The Jays may be wary committing $16.7MM to a player with Saunders’ limitations. There’s also the fact that Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are also free agents this winter, and both will certainly be issued qualifying offers. Encarnacion will definitely reject his, while there’s a chance Bautista could accept given his disappointing and injury-plagued season. If both signed elsewhere, the Jays would probably welcome Saunders accepting a QO just so they could retain one important bat for the lineup. Encarnacion’s departure would also free up the designated hitter spot for Saunders and other veterans in the Blue Jays lineup. If fatigue has been a factor in Saunders’ second-half slide, regular DH at-bats would help keep him fresher and perhaps more productive over all 162 games.

This all being said, let’s not forget just how tremendous Saunders was in the first half of 2016. Only 13 players in baseball topped Saunders’ first-half wRC+ of 146, and the outfielder hit an impressive .298/.372/.551 with 16 homers over 344 PA. Saunders had long been rumored to have middle-of-the-order bat potential, and it was all clicking for him in the first 3.5 months of the season.

Given that teams are increasingly preferring to be flexible with their DH spot rather than have one designated hitter, a team with holes at both DH and corner outfield would certainly consider Saunders to rotate between both positions. As mentioned earlier, 2017 will be Saunders’ age-30 season, which gives him an age advantage over some of the other notable corner outfield/DH types on the market this offseason. Teams may be more willing to surrender a draft pick for a player who could still be coming into his prime, so it’s quite possible that Saunders will find a nice contract elsewhere and the Jays can recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer.

Far from being an “easy call” anymore, Saunders now stands as one of the most intriguing QO cases of any free agent this winter, particularly given how his situation could influence how the Blue Jays approach re-signing Encarnacion and/or Bautista. How do MLBTR readers feel? (link for app users):

Poll: Should The Mets Issue Neil Walker A Qualifying Offer?

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2016 at 5:49pm CDT

Certainly, the Mets have more pressing matters at the moment than deciding whether to issue a $16.7MM qualifying offer to second baseman Neil Walker. Keeping pace in the Wild Card race takes priority over keeping Walker in town for 2017.

That being said, the team doesn’t have much time until it’ll make a tough call on Walker, who’ll qualify for free agency just after turning 31. The QO was all but a given before Walker’s recent back surgery — he provided New York with 458 plate appearances of .282/.347/.476 production and 23 home runs before going down — but that procedure throws some uncertainty into the matter.

Let’s look at the scary side first. Walker’s back surgery addressed a herniated disk that was causing numbness in his toes and carried a risk of worsening problems. Any back issues are obviously concerning for a big league player of any kind, especially when teams haven’t had a chance to see how the player looks upon his return.

On the other hand, Walker says he’s already progressing nicely and is pain-free for the first time in quite a while. It’ll be three months until he can participate in baseball activities, but that’s plenty of time to allow him to prepare for a full Spring Training. Indeed, he seemingly suggests that it should be viewed as a net positive, as he’ll no longer be saddled by the pain. Plus, it’s hard to ignore Walker’s straight seasons of above-average offensive production from an up-the-middle position — one that he fielded at an average (per DRS) to above-average (per UZR) level in 2016 despite posting below-average metrics in prior years.

Certainly, the Mets are privy to much more detailed information about Walker’s health than we are. But the question seems to boil down to one of financial risk versus the evident upside, which could come in one of two ways. If Walker declines the QO, then the Mets would stand to recoup draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. And if he accepts, but returns to health, he could well represent an appealing investment — even at that high rate — on just a single season commitment. That’s all the more true given that New York would arguably we well-served to retain an additional veteran infielder given the ongoing back and neck-related questions surrounding David Wright and the still-undetermined tender status of first baseman Lucas Duda (who just returned in part-time duty from his own back troubles).

While Sandy Alderson and co. bat things around, let’s see where the MLBTR readership stands (link for app users):

Poll: Should The Marlins Shop Jose Fernandez This Offseason?

By Jeff Todd | September 20, 2016 at 8:30am CDT

This time of year is as quiet as it gets in terms of actual baseball transactions, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things happening beneath the surface. While postseason play remains the focus for contenders, all teams need to have at least one eye on an offseason that isn’t far away. Internal assessment and planning are obviously an ongoing task, and clubs are constantly engaged one another to see what opportunities may arise.

All that’s a way of setting up this morning’s poll question: as the Marlins enter the final two weeks of play with a .500 record that likely won’t deliver a postseason berth, should they be preparing to shop ace righty Jose Fernandez this winter? Or should they be thinking of ways to ensure that he stays in Miami for the long run?

Fernandez, who just turned 24, is an unquestioned ace. He has fully re-established himself since returning from Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.97 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 239 innings since making it back to the bigs last year.

Youth is certainly on Fernandez’s side, and he’s cheaper than he ought to be since the timing of the TJ surgery held down his first-year arbitration earnings ($2.8MM). He’ll command a huge raise on that number, of course, but still won’t be compensated at anything approaching his on-field value. The two remaining years of arb control are immensely valuable. (Remember, the Fish could’ve had another if they hadn’t placed Fernandez on the Opening Day roster back in 2013.)

That makes Fernandez a highly appealing trade candidate entering a winter in which the free agent class is historically sparse. Miami could target high-end young talent to improve a little-regarded farm system, angle for controllable major league pieces, or combine either or both of those targets with a request for some useful, reasonably-priced MLB assets at positions of need.

Of course, the same factors of affordability and performance also make Fernandez a potential extension candidate for the Marlins, who previously managed to lock up Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Dee Gordon. Fernandez’s late-twenties seasons won’t come cheap, but the Stephen Strasburg extension shows that it’s possible to keep a Scott Boras-repped ace so long as the player is motivated.

The question for the Marlins, ultimately, is multi-faceted. Can they win with their current roster, which has had success at times but lacks for starting pitching depth and has needs on the left side of the infield? Would they be better off — in the long-term, but perhaps also even in the short-term — to swap Fernandez out for a huge return of talent? If they want to keep him, can they afford what it might take to keep the Cuban-born star in Miami?

Figuring all that out will require an assessment not only of Fernandez, but also of the broader market situation. Starting pitching figures to be a focal point in trade talks this winter, with teams such as the White Sox (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana), Rays (Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb), and Braves (Julio Teheran) potentially weighing whether to cash in on a pitching-starved market. Fernandez is younger and arguably better (though that’s plenty debatable) than any of those pitchers, and would certainly draw immense interest, meaning Miami at least has to be wondering about the question that you are about to answer (link for mobile app users):

Poll: The Braves’ Outfield

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2016 at 12:13pm CDT

The Braves will enter the 2016-17 offseason with a pair of veteran outfielders — Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp — under contract through 2018 and 2019, respectively, as well as a pair of fleet-footed defensive stars — Ender Inciarte and Mallex Smith — that the team has hoped can become long-term pieces. And, in looking at the potential logjam, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that it’s “likely” that veteran Jeff Francoeur will be back in the fold with the Braves to once again fill a bench role.

With a quartet of outfielders that could factor into the starting mix, there figures to be plenty of chatter about the Braves trading an outfielder this offseason, so let’s take a look at the possibility of each…

Nick Markakis: Owed $10.5MM in each of the next two seasons, Markakis looked to be a potentially regrettable investment for the Braves earlier this season. The veteran right fielder hit just three homers in his first season with Atlanta and had managed just one long ball in the first two and a half months of the current season. His bat exploded in mid-June, though, and suddenly the 32-year-old (33 this winter) is in vintage form. In his past 337 plate appearances, Markakis is batting an exceptional .297/.359/.473 with 11 homers and 20 doubles. Defensive metrics are once again casting a favorable light on his glove work as well (+10 DRS, +1.6 UZR), making the remaining $22MM on his contract look perfectly reasonable. If the Braves are going to move an outfielder this winter, I agree with O’Brien’s assessment in the previously linked column that Markakis is the likeliest of the bunch. He’s a shorter-term investment than Kemp with superior defense.

Matt Kemp: Kemp is technically owed $21.5MM in each of the next three seasons, but the Dodgers are picking up the tab on $3.5MM of that sum each season, so he could be had for $18MM annually from 2017-19. That’s still a huge price to pay for a player who grades out as one of baseball’s worst defensive players. Defensive Runs saved pegs Kemp at -18 this season, and Ultimate Zone Rating’s -11.4 isn’t much more favorable. With 31 homers on the season, Kemp has demonstrated that he still has plenty of power in his bat, and it’s worth noting that he’s restored his previously pitiful walk rate in recent months. Kemp has walked at an 8.2 percent clip with Atlanta and 7.8 percent clip dating back to June 14 — a vast improvement for a player that incredibly drew just two unintentional walks through his first 270 plate appearances this season. Some have suggested that Kemp’s presence has bolstered the production of Markakis and Freddie Freeman. However, as noted above, Markakis’ production is more a continuation of his June/July surge than something that could be directly attributable to Kemp’s presence in the lineup. Freeman, meanwhile, was already having a strong season and was entering a hot streak in the days leading up to Kemp’s acquisition. Kemp turns 32 next week, so he’s a year younger than Markakis with a superior bat. But, he’s considerably more expensive and comes with drastically inferior defense and on-base skills.

Ender Inciarte: Trading Inciarte seems decidedly unlikely, but if we’re exploring all options, the possibility may as well be raised. The Braves have shown a willingness to trade virtually anyone other than Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, though Inciarte’s incredible play since returning from the disabled list could conceivably have pushed him into that echelon. The 25-year-old is hitting .288/.346/.381 with three homers and 15 steals through 512 plate appearances, and those numbers jump to .316/.368/.425 since June 5 (as O’Brien points out). Paired with his elite defense in the outfield (+13 DRS, +15.9 UZR) and remaining four seasons of control, that offensive production makes Inciarte one of the most quietly valuable commodities in Major League Baseball. He’s a four to five win player over the course of a full season, so four years of his services would need to come with an enormous return. He’s slated to hit arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but that doesn’t detract from his value. Indeed, O’Brien notes that Atlanta would need to be “bowled over” by a huge offer to part with Inciarte.

Mallex Smith: It’s doubtful that the Braves are itching to part with the 23-year-old Smith, either, but as I noted with regards to Inciarte, if the point of this write-up is to explore every option, dealing Smith as part of a package for some pitching help — GM John Coppolella has stated that he hopes to add two starters this winter — should be mentioned. Smith had a great minor league season in 2015 when he slashed .303/.371/.378 with 56 steals in 542 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old. He made his big league debut early this season when the Braves needed a replacement for the aforementioned Inciarte injury, and his electric speed and defensive contributions secured his roster spot even after Inciarte’s return. Smith didn’t look overly comfortable against MLB pitching, hitting just .237/.312/.379 before a fractured thumb cost him several months. He did slash .256/.350/.422 in his final 104 plate appearances, but that’s a fairly small sample from which to glean an accurate representation of his skills. There’s not a lot to go on at the MLB level just yet, but Smith possesses 80-grade speed in the eyes of some scouts and draws strong reviews for his defense in center and for his plate discipline. The Braves viewed him as a long-term option in center before acquiring Inciarte, and another club could feel similarly and consider him an appealing piece of a package to net the Braves some much-needed pitching.

The alternative scenario, of course, is that the Braves simply hold onto all four outfielders. After all, Smith has scarcely been tested in the Majors, and the presence of all four would create a good deal of depth in the event of injuries. Even if Smith is kept around as a fourth outfielder, he could see routine time as a late-game defensive replacement for Kemp and/or a pinch-running option when he isn’t in the starting lineup. (Though, certainly, there’s an argument to be made for him to play every day in Triple-A if he doesn’t crack next year’s starting outfield mix.)

With any number of avenues for the Braves to pursue this winter, let’s see what MLBTR readers find to be the best course of action (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2016 at 7:30pm CDT

I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter. A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane. Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus. That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November. Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries. The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet. Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.

His performance has been otherworldly. Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period. Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time. Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement. Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto’s last 229 2/3 frames. Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
His age won’t stop him from getting three years. Hill will turn 37 in March. Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline. However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business. If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well. Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years. Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008. He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand. I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above. It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers). It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy. Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM. Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown? It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy. Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent. So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him. Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series. It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings. A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time. However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter. $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible. The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad. Have a look. Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill? I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.

The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference. Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do. Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).

Poll: Trevor Plouffe’s Future In Minnesota

By Steve Adams | September 7, 2016 at 6:19pm CDT

Twins corner infielder/designated hitter Trevor Plouffe exited last night’s game with an oblique injury, and tests have revealed the 30-year-old to have both an oblique strain and an intercostal strain, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets. Plouffe hopes to return before the end of the season, but Bollinger notes that it’s unlikely that Plouffe will have enough time to recover. Oblique injuries tend to linger for at least a month, and with a pair of strains, it seems quite possible that what has been an injury-riddled season for Plouffe will come to a close.

The greater question that should be asked, at this juncture, is whether Plouffe has played his final game as a member of the Twins. The former first-round pick (20th overall, 2004) was an oft-speculated trade candidate last winter thanks to the emergence of Miguel Sano and the signing of Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, but the Twins elected to hang onto Plouffe and try Sano in right field — an experiment that yielded dreadful results. The 6’4″, 260-pound Sano perhaps unsurprisingly graded out very poorly in right field (-8 DRS, -2.6 UZR in 312 innings) and was ultimately moved back to third base when Plouffe suffered a fractured rib that cost him six months of the season.

With Sano now seeing reps at third base and DH, Plouffe has rotated between third base (when Sano is DHing), first base and DH himself since returning from the disabled list. However, next season will present the Twins — who will be headed by a new front office regime — with a similar logjam, as Sano, Plouffe, Park and Joe Mauer will all be back in the mix. (For those wondering about the possibility, Mauer cannot return to catching given his concussion history.) With Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario likely handling regular outfield duties in 2017, there’s no obvious corner opening to move one of those pieces this time around.

Further complicating matters for Plouffe is that he’s endured his worst season since 2013. In addition to the current pair of muscle strains and the aforementioned rib fracture, Plouffe also missed nearly three weeks in late April/early May with another intercostal strain. Plouffe established himself as an average defender with a slightly above-average bat in 2014-15 when he hit .251/.317/.429 with 36 homers in 1214 plate appearances — good for a combined 5.9 fWAR and 6.5 rWAR. However, he was hitting just .252/.283/.399 at the time he landed on the DL in July due to the rib fracture. Plouffe has been hot since coming back (.277/.345/.465, five homers in 26 games), which has boosted his overall line to .260/.303/.420, but much of the 2016 season has been a struggle for him at the plate.

Plouffe will be arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, and though he’s been slowed by injuries and hasn’t had his most productive year, he’ll still receive a raise this year’s $7.25MM salary. A salary in the $8-9MM range isn’t outlandish for a healthy Plouffe, but it may also be more than the Twins wish to pay him given the state of their roster, as currently constructed. Certainly, Plouffe could garner trade interest from clubs looking for short-term upgrades at the corner infield spots, though there’s also the possibility that a new president of baseball operations decides to cut bait simply by non-tendering him. Alternatively, the Twins could elect to move other pieces and keep Plouffe around for what will be his final season before hitting the free agent market.

With a number of avenues that the new-look front office could pursue, let’s open this one up for some crowd-sourcing (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Poll: Clayton Kershaw’s Cy Young Chances

By Connor Byrne | September 4, 2016 at 4:28pm CDT

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced Sunday that baseball’s preeminent ace, Clayton Kershaw, will make his long-awaited return to Los Angeles’ rotation against the Marlins on Friday. Before landing on the disabled list in late June with a herniated disc in his back, the left-hander was on track for an all-time great season. In addition to posting a 1.79 ERA in 121 pre-injury innings, Kershaw struck out 10.79 batters and walked a microscopic .67 per nine frames, giving him an incredible 16.11 K/BB ratio. The record for a season is a modest-by-comparison 11.63, a figure the Twins’ Phil Hughes put up in 2014.

Kershaw, 28, was clearly the best pitcher in the majors through the end of June and looked poised to ultimately collect his fourth National League Cy Young Award at the conclusion of the season. Now, despite his brilliance this year, the time Kershaw has missed makes racking up any personal hardware look like a long shot. It’s debatable whether that should be the case, however.

If he stays healthy down the stretch, Kershaw will likely close the regular season in the 150-inning range, which would put him far behind fellow NL Cy Young contenders like Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Fernandez and Madison Bumgarner, among others. Nevertheless, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron (an NL Cy Young voter) detailed Friday, Kershaw has easily outperformed the rest of his league’s elite this season. For instance, Hendricks leads qualifying NL starters in ERA (2.12), yet he has allowed 20 more earned runs than Kershaw in only 38 more innings. Thus, voters will have to weigh whether a truncated season of sheer dominance from Kershaw is superior to a full year of excellence from Hendricks or any of the other aforementioned options.

History suggests that voters tend to place significant value on workhorses, evidenced by the fact that Kershaw (198 1/3 innings in 2014) and former Dodgers closer Eric Gagne (82 1/3 in 2003) are the only two NL pitchers to throw fewer than 200 frames in a Cy Young-winning season since 1990. Still, Kershaw will finish 2016 with videogamelike numbers, and both results- and FIP-based WAR indicate that he has been among the most valuable pitchers in the NL despite a two-plus-month absence. Unfortunately for Kershaw, his extraordinary output over a limited number of innings might not be enough for him to garner serious Cy Young consideration. Do you think it should?

Which Of These Free Agents Will Get Four-Year Deals?

By Tim Dierkes | August 29, 2016 at 3:06pm CDT

Last offseason, 14 players received free agent contracts of four or more years, excluding international signings. Some of the borderline guys, like Ben Zobrist and Darren O’Day, successfully obtained the guaranteed fourth year. Others, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, were not able to get there, at least at an acceptable salary. This winter, Cespedes and elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen seem locks for four-plus years. Everyone else, not so much. Here are 13 cases to consider, and vote on:

Edwin Encarnacion, 34 years old in January. Encarnacion is having a great season, sitting second in MLB with 36 home runs. He’s hit 34+ home runs in each of the last five seasons. His market will likely be limited to the American League, though there is precedent with Nelson Cruz’s four-year, $57MM deal. Encarnacion is facing a lawsuit alleging he knowingly infected a woman with multiple STDs in February.
Ian Desmond, 31 in September. Desmond has reinvented himself as the Rangers’ center fielder, though he has struggled offensively this month.
Jose Bautista, 36 in October. Bautista recently finished his second DL stint of the year, and his production has been down this season. He’s the oldest player in this poll.
Mark Trumbo, 31 in January. Trumbo leads MLB with 40 home runs, but he also sports a .317 on-base percentage and has struggled on defense.
Wilson Ramos, turned 29 this month. The Nationals’ catcher has age on his side, and is in the midst of a breakout season.
Justin Turner, 32 in November. Zobrist signed his deal heading into his age-35 season, so surely his contract will be considered a precedent by Turner’s agent. Turner has set a career-high with 24 home runs already, and is headed toward a career best in games played.
Neil Walker, 31 in September. After being traded to the Mets in December, Walker is having the best season of his career. Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM deal with the Yankees in December 2014 suggests Walker can reach the same term.
Dexter Fowler, 31 in March. Fowler ranks eighth in the NL with a .389 OBP, though a June hamstring injury may keep him shy of 130 games played for the third time in the last four years.
Michael Saunders, 30 in November. Like Desmond, Saunders has re-established himself but scuffled in August. As with a few others on this list, Saunders’ injury history will give teams pause.
Josh Reddick, 30 in February. Reddick once seemed like a lock for four years, but he missed time earlier this year due to a broken thumb and has been terrible since joining the Dodgers in a deadline deal. It’s fair to question whether four years will be on the table for him.
Mark Melancon, 32 in March. Though not as dominant with strikeouts as Chapman and Jansen, Melancon has a 1.75 ERA in 272 innings since 2013, and he’s been great for the Nationals. His agent will at least aim for four years.
Jeremy Hellickson, 30 in April. Hellickson is one of the best free agent starters available this winter, and the weak market and his relative youth could theoretically push him to a four-year deal.
Ivan Nova, 30 in January. Nova is a long shot for four years, but he’s been great since coming over to the Pirates, and teams can act irrationally in free agency.

Your turn: which of these free agents will get four or more years? Check all that apply, and click here to view the results. Those using our app or Safari on their cell phone can click here for the poll.

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Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Front Office

By Connor Byrne | August 26, 2016 at 1:59pm CDT

Derrick Hall will remain the Diamondbacks’ CEO for the foreseeable future, but that won’t necessarily preclude a major overhaul to the franchise’s baseball operations department. Hall stated this week that the club will make decisions on the two heads of that department, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart, after the season.

“There’s a lot to think about here,” said Hall, who doesn’t seem eager to make radical changes to Arizona’s front office.

La Russa and Stewart only took the helm in Arizona during the 2014 campaign, but the team has regressed enough under their leadership to make a regime change a legitimate possibility. After going 79-83 and posting a plus-7 run differential in 2015, the Diamondbacks’ first full season with La Russa and Stewart at the controls, the club has plummeted to 53-75 this year. Only two teams have lesser records than the D-backs, and just one has a worse run differential than Arizona’s minus-132. Injuries, primarily the fractured elbow that has kept star center fielder A.J. Pollock out all season, haven’t helped Arizona’s cause. However, even with a healthy roster, it’s fair to say the Diamondbacks would not have pushed for a playoff spot this year. Their front office had other plans, however, as evidenced by its aggressive offseason maneuverings.

The Diamondbacks’ most notable winter transactions included signing 32-year-old right-hander Zack Greinke to a $206.5MM contract and swinging a trade with the Braves for righty Shelby Miller. While still a quality option, Greinke has gone backward in his first year as a Diamondback (and spent time on the DL himself), which wasn’t the scenario they envisioned when awarding a franchise-record payday to him.

Like Greinke, Miller has also disappointed this season, though his decline has been far worse. Miller had been at least a solid mid-rotation starter as a Cardinal and Brave, but the Diamondbacks’ move to acquire him was still met with widespread derision because they paid such an expensive price for his services. Not only did the D-backs surrender shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft, but they also included outfielder Ender Inciarte and well-regarded pitching prospect Aaron Blair in the package. The only bit of good news for the Diamondbacks is that Blair has fared poorly with the Braves. Unfortunately, though, Miller has careened off a cliff. The 25-year-old logged a 7.14 ERA, 6.49 K/9 and 4.41 BB/9 across 69 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks through mid-July, at which point they demoted him to Triple-A Reno. Miller still hasn’t returned to the Majors, and the Diamondbacks nearly bailed on the experiment and traded him to the Marlins earlier this summer. However, D-backs ownership reportedly prevented it from happening.

While the Miller trade is the one that defines the La Russa and Stewart era, it clearly isn’t their only questionable choice. In another swap with the Braves, the Diamondbacks shipped off righty Touki Toussaint – their first-round pick in 2014 – with veteran righty Bronson Arroyo in exchange for infielder Phil Gosselin last June. By involving Toussaint, the Diamondbacks were able to rid themselves of the $10.1MM left on Arroyo’s contract. Toussaint isn’t a lock to pan out, but the 20-year-old has been one of Baseball America’s 100 best prospects since 2014. Teams generally don’t give that type of upside away to erase $10.1MM from their books.

Along with the Miller and Toussaint trades, the Diamondbacks have also drawn plenty of ire for inking Cuban righty Yoan Lopez to a then-record $8.27MM bonus during the 2014 international signing period. According to Keith Law of ESPN, the Diamondbacks were unaware of how international signing rules work when they added Lopez. That’s damning if true, of course, especially considering the Lopez pickup has prevented the D-backs from landing any international free agent for more than $300K over the past two signing periods. Plus, the 23-year-old Lopez hasn’t lived up to the bonus, having scuffled in the minors and contemplated giving up baseball as a result.

In fairness to La Russa and Stewart, not all have their prominent transactions have produced wholly unappealing outcomes. Second baseman Jean Segura, acquired from the Brewers for righty Chase Anderson, infielder Aaron Hill and infield prospect Isan Diaz in the offseason, is in the midst of a career year. Additionally, left-hander Robbie Ray and righty Rubby De La Rosa have shown promise, while outfielder Yasmany Tomas has shown considerable improvement at the plate. The Diamondbacks had to give up shortstop Didi Gregorius for Ray, though, and a forearm injury has kept De La Rosa out since May. Tomas, whom the Diamondbacks signed to a six-year, $68.5MM deal in 2014, has been much better this season than last. However, despite his respectable offensive output (.265/.309/.515 with 26 home runs in 434 plate appearances), the Cuba native hasn’t provided much overall value because of his below-average work in the outfield and on the base paths.

In the aggregate, the negatives seem to outweigh the positives when it comes to the Diamondbacks’ current regime. Unsurprisingly, they’d like another chance to right the ship in Arizona.

“We had one good year, and if you look at what’s happened on the field this year, then one bad year. I think we deserve a tiebreaker,” Stewart told Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

For his part, La Russa believes that he and his cohorts “have earned the benefit of the doubt.”

You know where they stand. Let’s see where you stand (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Assessing The Indians’ Options At Catcher

By Steve Adams | August 17, 2016 at 12:31pm CDT

The Indians are in first place in the American League Central, yet they possess one of the most glaring weaknesses of any contender in the game. Cleveland catchers this season — Yan Gomes (currently injured), Roberto Perez and Chris Gimenez — have combined to bat a staggering .172/.225/.296 in 457 plate appearances. The company line has been that they’re high on the defensive capabilities of each backstop, but no club in all of Major League Baseball has received worse production out of its catchers. How best to remedy that situation — or whether they even need to — is up for debate.

Obvious Trade Candidates

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes today that Cleveland has had some discussions with the division-rival Twins about Kurt Suzuki in the past, but “there’s nothing happening at the moment.” Suzuki cleared trade waivers yesterday, making him a logical candidate for any club in need of catching help. The main sticking point for Cleveland, it seems, is that Suzuki isn’t regarded as a strong defender, and he would obviously be tasked with learning an entirely new pitching staff in a short amount of time in the event that the Indians made a move. That’s a tall order for any catcher, and it could conceivably lead to further difficulty in framing/blocking pitches if he’s not fully familiar with the full arsenal of each pitcher he’s catching. Then again, Suzuki is affordable (owed $1.5MM through season’s end) and hitting .281/.321/.435 — an enormous upgrade over the offensive deficiencies that have plagued Cleveland catchers in 2016.Read more

Another obvious candidate for Cleveland would be the only other catcher that is known at this time to have cleared trade waivers: Brian McCann. The defensive question marks that surround Suzuki aren’t as prevalent with McCann. While the Yankee backstop is admittedly having a down season in terms of throwing out runners, his 23 percent is still better than Suzuki’s 19 percent, and he’s traditionally been more adept at controlling the running game. Likewise, McCann routinely posts above-average framing marks, per Baseball Prospectus, while Suzuki perennially ranks as one of the worst in the game at stealing extra strikes for his pitchers. It’s probably a surprise to some that haven’t paid close attention to see that Suzuki, though, has actually been the better hitter of the two this season in terms of both average and slugging percentage.

The difficulty with regards to McCann, however, is that he’s owed $34MM beyond this season, and there’s almost certainly no way the Indians would be willing to take on that type of coin. The Yankees would have to eat a substantial amount of McCann’s remaining salary for any type of serious consideration, and they’d accordingly ask for a greater return in terms of prospects if they continue to shoulder the bulk of McCann’s contract. On a speculative note, though, McCann would seem to be a good fit for the rotating catcher/first base/designated hitter role that prompted Jonathan Lucroy to veto a deal to Cleveland. And, speaking of no-trade clauses, McCann does have full no-trade rights under his deal with the Yankees, so he’d have to approve of the move.

Names That Could Become Available

Derek Norris could (and perhaps should) be listed in the previous category, but there’s no official word that he’s cleared waivers yet so I kept him in this bucket for now. At any rate, the Padres’ catcher has seen his bat go ice cold again in recent weeks after showing promise from May through mid-July. Norris got off to one of the worst starts of any big league hitter this year but largely righted the ship and looked to be hitting his way back into trade candidacy. But, in 80 plate appearances since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .113/.213/.127, making him look more like a non-tender candidate than a trade candidate.

Digging a bit deeper, I looked at the trade market for catchers last month and listed a number of names that were rentals and some that were controllable beyond the current season. The latter group is probably off limits now (with the exception of the aforementioned McCann and Norris), but a number of potential rentals figure to be available.

Carlos Ruiz still draws plenty of walks for the rebuilding Phillies and could at the very least provide some OBP from behind the plate. The Rockies have wilted as of late, falling to 9.5 games back in their division and 6.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot. If Nick Hundley hasn’t already been placed on trade waivers, he very well could be in the near future. It’s no certainty that he’d clear, but he’s another affordable rental piece that could theoretically help Cleveland if he makes it to them unclaimed. Geovany Soto of the Angels represents another option that figures to land on trade waivers and could make his way to Cleveland, if he’s not first blocked by a club like Detroit in an effort to prevent Cleveland from adding any sort of alternative to their incumbent options. [Editor’s Note: Soto was placed on the 15-day DL after this post was published.] Likewise, Mariners catcher Chris Iannetta could hit the wire now that Mike Zunino is hitting well, but Iannetta is in a Norris-esque free fall at the moment himself.

The Case for Staying the Course

For all of their offensive woes behind the plate, the fact of the matter is that Cleveland is six games up on the AL Central. They’re 10th in the Majors in terms of caught-stealing percentage from their catchers, having halted exactly one third of the attempts against them, and more impressively, the Indians have had the fewest steals attempted against them of any MLB team — just 57 tries. It’s still possible that Gomes returns from a separated shoulder next month and brings his strong framing skills and rocket arm with him, further increasing the club’s defensive prowess. Any addition, at this point, would likely be made for the purposes of adding some punch to the postseason roster, but framing extra strikes (or simply ensuring that actual strikes on the fringe of the zone are called) and preventing stolen bases are of magnified importance in the playoffs. Cleveland could simply elect to prioritize those elements over adding another solid, but unspectacular bat to a lineup that has already scored the fourth-most runs in baseball even with a dearth of offensive production from behind the plate.

All of that said, I’ll open this one up to our readers for debate in the comments and in the following poll (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

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