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Will The Royals Retain Any Of Their Free-Agent Stars?

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The question isn’t a new one. It has long been observed that three key Royals players — center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas — would all reach the open market after the 2017 season. Indeed, it seemed at times that the club would get out ahead of the pending departure by dealing one or more of those players, as it did with closer Wade Davis over the winter, though that never came to pass.

With the Kansas City club all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, we’re fast approaching the point where the question will no longer be hypothetical. It’s clear that all three players are worthy of receiving and declining qualifying offers, potentially setting the stage for the organization to pick up a nice haul of draft picks as compensation if they depart. Barring a stunning development — the QO decision period will at least provide a window — none will re-up with the Royals before reaching the open market.

While the expectation long has been that the Royals would require some transition period, it’s tough to guess from the outside just what that might look like. The organization ran a payroll of over $140MM this year and has made clear it can’t do so again. But it already has more than $100MM committed for 2018, with a variety of veteran players — many controlled for the short-term, but a few on longer-term deals — still on the books. Some of those contracts have some value; others don’t. But the mix will make it difficult for the Royals to embark upon a complete and immediate tear-down.

So, is there still some possibility that Cain, Hosmer, and/or Moustakas could find themselves back in a familiar place next year and beyond? It isn’t as if the club has obvious replacements lined up for the trio. And all have indicated they would like to return, if that proves possible.

Obviously, the biggest barrier is cost. While K.C. might conceivably welcome back veteran shortstop Alcides Escobar, he likely won’t cost all that much given his ongoing struggles at the plate. The three players under consideration here, though, will surely command over $10MM annually over lengthy terms.

Cain might be the best of this group and will likely require the lowest total guarantee, mostly because he’s already 31 years old — which will also add to the Royals’ trepidation in paying to keep him. Hosmer has yet to turn 28 and is coming off of his best season in the majors, though he’ll probably be the most expensive and is probably also the easiest of this group to replace (given the glut of older power hitters on the market). Moustakas, 29, might offer something of a middle ground between the others and did just set the organizational record with his 37th dinger, though he won’t be cheap and remains an iffy performer in the on-base department.

So, how do you see this playing out? (Link for app users.)

Which of the Royals' 3 Free-Agent Stars Will Return?
None 37.05% (3,609 votes)
Hosmer only 17.60% (1,715 votes)
Moustakas only 10.17% (991 votes)
Hosmer & Moustakas 10.06% (980 votes)
Cain only 9.78% (953 votes)
Cain & Moustakas 6.17% (601 votes)
Cain & Hosmer 5.87% (572 votes)
All 3.30% (321 votes)
Total Votes: 9,742

Should The Braves Exercise Their Option Over R.A. Dickey?

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As he closes in on his 43rd birthday, Braves knuckler R.A. Dickey has shown no signs of slowing down. He has settled in as an average starter, sure, but he’s not your average “average starter,” either.

Dickey is no longer close to being the Cy Young winner he was in 2012. Since then, though, he has emerged as the game’s preeminent provider of league-average innings. From 2013 through the present, Dickey has averaged 200 frames annually. And he has not strayed more than five percentage points in either direction from the mean ERA in any of those years.

That’s what Atlanta thought it was signing up for when it inked the Tennessee native to a one-year, $7.5MM deal with a $8MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2018. And that’s just what the club got. Until a few rough outings in September, Dickey was allowing less than four earned per nine; now, though, he’s right back at a 4.41 ERA through 175 1/3 frames on the year — nearly identical to his results last year and good for a 101 ERA-. Dickey carries 6.6 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 on the season, right in line with his recent work.

All told, it seems mostly reasonable to anticipate that Dickey will produce similar results next year. Fielding-independent pitching metrics have long suggested good fortune, but Dickey has consistently outperformed them and generated low batting averages on balls in play. It doesn’t take much imagination to view him as an outlier whose value isn’t appropriate measured by those metrics and who can also be expected to defy aging curves.

Dickey can be retained for the same rate of pay. So, do the Braves still want and need him?

Atlanta has already parted with the two other veterans it acquired last winter, Jaime Garcia and Bartolo Colon, though both were set for free agency regardless. The team probably has identified three younger starters to carry in the rotation next year, with Sean Newcomb joining holdovers Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz. None of that trio has been consistently excellent, though all have had their moments and ought to retain their roles. (Newcomb owns the best ERA of the bunch at 4.32, but he has only been asked/able to throw 89 2/3 innings over 17 starts.) Otherwise, the Braves could give a bigger opportunity to Lucas Sims or hope that Max Fried and/or Luiz Gohara win jobs in camp.

There are other arms coming behind this group, too, and Atlanta is rumored yet again to be eyeing more established but still-controllable starters on the trade market. In honesty, though, the club needs reliable innings — if for no other reason than to avoid a situation where the club is forced either to press its young arms too hard or instead find marginal big leaguers to plug any rotation gaps that may arise (as they are wont to do). If the organization really hopes to move toward true contention, then it’s hard to imagine it relying on what’s available in-house.

While other short-term free agent targets may offer more upside, even the best bounceback targets are just that — pitchers with talent but injury or other questions that weigh down their value and appeal. If the Braves prefer to roll the dice, they can send Dickey packing and try their luck on someone else. Or, perhaps, they can bid adieu to the grizzled veteran and aim much higher in trade and/or free agency — though the roster arguably isn’t ready enough for the club to take the kinds of long-term financial risks that led to the most recent rebuild.

Ultimately, there are some pretty compelling reasons for Atlanta to retain the steady veteran. But it’s not quite a slam dunk, with some imaginable scenarios in which the team might simply prefer to take a different course. Some may consider the possibility that the Braves could pick up the option and trade Dickey; while that’s not out of the question, it seems unlikely a team would do that with a veteran whose contract doesn’t carry significant surplus value and who signed with that team due in no small part to geographical considerations. So, that option won’t be broken out in the poll.

How do you think the Braves ought to proceed? (Link for app users.)

Should the Braves Pick Up R.A. Dickey's Option?
Yes 69.19% (4,766 votes)
No 30.81% (2,122 votes)
Total Votes: 6,888

MLBTR Poll: Should The Mets Pick Up Asdrubal Cabrera’s Option

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Entering the year, Asdrubal Cabrera seemed rather likely to stay with New York through the 2018 season. His $8.5MM option comes with a reasonably hefty $2MM buyout, making it a $6.5MM decision. It’s hard to find a solid veteran at that sort of price tag on a one-year term, after all, and Cabrera was coming off of a 2016 campaign in which he was worth 2.7 rWAR and 3.0 fWAR as the Mets’ everyday shortstop.

Quite a bit has changed in the meantime, of course. The Mets collapsed, with injuries and performance issues leaving the anticipated contender outpacing only the Phillies in a dreadful NL East. Cabrera lost his job at short, with the Mets taking advantage of their nosedive to give a look to much-ballyhooed shortstop prospect Amed Rosario, who is not giving the position back.

On the other hand, there’s another interpretation of recent events under which not much has changed at all. While the dreadful season hurts the club’s outlook for 2018, every indication is that the organization will (quite reasonably) attempt to rebound back into contention. Cabrera was never likely to remain at shortstop over the life of his contract anyway; the Mets always thought Rosario would claim the position. If Rosario has answered any uncertainty about who’s playing short, then there’s also more uncertainty than ever at third, where David Wright has shown no signs of being able to make it back. Second base also lays unclaimed. Players such as Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera (both righty hitters) seemed like possible options at third and second base already, and remain so, but the switch-hitting Cabrera still brings a different element.

While Cabrera hasn’t been as productive as he was last year, he has posted another above-average year with the bat, running a .274/.344/.425 batting line with a dozen home runs through 484 plate appearances. His baserunning has graded out terribly, though one can’t help but think that the long-time infielder, who long graded as a roughly average performer on the bases, won’t repeat quite that poor a performance. Defensively, Cabrera is a palatable performer at second and now also at third; he also would represent a fill-in and backup plan at short.

All said, from a value standpoint, it seems the $6.5MM commitment would be justifiable. New York certainly has the capacity to add that kind of money to the payroll; while there are other needs, too, the club will surely like the idea of checking a box with a one-year commitment. In the end, the decision will likely come down to whether the Mets really want to build their roster with Cabrera. Should they? (Link for app users.)

Should the Mets Pick Up Asdrubal Cabrera's 2018 Option?
Yes 58.32% (1,865 votes)
No 41.68% (1,333 votes)
Total Votes: 3,198

Poll: Should The Reds Give Zack Cozart A Qualifying Offer?

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An ill-timed injury that landed Zack Cozart on the disabled list from July 26 through Aug. 6 may have prevented the Reds from trading their shortstop prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. The Reds placed Cozart on revocable trade waivers last month and reportedly pulled him back after the claiming team placed the claim more to block other contenders from acquiring Cozart than to work out a trade themselves.

Zack Cozart | Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsThat effectively eliminated the possibility of the Reds trading Cozart at all, leaving general manager Dick Williams and his staff with somewhat of a dilemma. Cozart has played at star level on a per-game basis over the past three seasons — never more so than in 2017 — but has also dealt with injuries in each of those three seasons. The rebuilding Reds, then, are faced with the choice of either letting one of their best players walk as a free agent with no compensation or making a one-year qualifying offer that is reported to be in the $18.1MM range, which would net them draft pick compensation. There’s an argument to be made in favor of either decision.

Those that feel a qualifying offer is too great a risk have an understandable vantage point. Cozart is 32 years old and, assuming he remains healthy through season’s end, will have averaged about 100 games per year over the past three seasons. In that time, he’s been sidelined by a torn ACL, some knee troubles in 2016 and quadriceps issues in 2017. There will also likely be clubs that wonder if this year’s offensive breakout is sustainable; while he’d shown much-improved power in both 2015 and 2016, Cozart’s offensive output has never approached his 2017 levels in the past.

There’s also a lack of contending clubs or expected contenders with clear-cut shortstop needs this offseason, creating the potential for the same limited market the Reds found when seeking trade partners in both 2016 and 2017. And, Cozart has only earned about $12MM in his career, so the prospect of increasing his career earnings by 150 percent in a single season will make it tempting to accept — especially since the new CBA prohibits the team from making a second QO the following offseason.

[Related: Offseason Primer — The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

On the other hand, a one-year deal for Cozart at $18.1MM isn’t necessarily a bad outcome. He’s been worth considerably more than that this season even with his injuries, thanks to his perennially elite defense and his career-best .304/.397/.549 batting line. Cozart’s offensive improvement doesn’t appear to be due entirely to BABIP luck, either. He’s more than doubled his career walk rate (6.4 percent career, 13 percent in 2017), his strikeout rate remains strong (15 percent — well below the league average) and his 31.4 percent hard-hit rate is largely a continuation of last year’s solid pace.

Like many others throughout the league, Cozart has increased his fly-ball rate a bit, and he’s also benefited from a not-outlandish uptick in his 2015-16 homer-to-flyball ratio. The Reds can probably expect some degree of regression in his career-high .324 BABIP, but even a return to his career level of .281 would render the new, ultra-patient and more powerful version of Cozart a decidedly above-average bat. Cozart will enter this offseason as a markedly better offensive producer than J.J. Hardy was when he signed a three-year, $40MM deal to remain with the Orioles at the same age.

There may not be a lengthy list of teams eyeing shortstop upgrades, but there are plenty of clubs that could work Cozart into the mix. The Cardinals could deploy Paul DeJong at third base and play Cozart at shortstop. The D-backs have some uncertainty and were often a speculative Cozart suitor this summer, though they do have Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed both controllable beyond the current campaign. The Padres aren’t contending but have long been seeking stability at shortstop, while the Royals will be on the lookout for an Alcides Escobar replacement. Trevor Story has taken a step back in Colorado. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis have injury concerns in Toronto. And, as ever, offseason trades and injuries, will alter every free agent’s market.

Were Cozart to accept, the Reds wouldn’t be able to trade him without his consent until mid-June of 2018. However, he could also once again command interest at the 2018 non-waiver deadline, particularly if he maintains his breakout and the Reds show some willingness to pay any of the contract. (Cincinnati did pay the bulk of Brandon Phillips’ contract this past offseason, and Cozart’s deal almost certainly wouldn’t require the Reds to pay such a significant portion, even at $18.1MM.)

All of that said, I’ll open this up for public input (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Should the Reds give Zack Cozart a qualifying offer?
Yes 54.26% (2,389 votes)
No 45.74% (2,014 votes)
Total Votes: 4,403

 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Giancarlo Stanton’s 2017 HR Total

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Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton continued marching toward the 60-home run mark on Saturday when he slugged his 54th long ball of the year, a 456-foot shot off Braves left-hander Max Fried. While the 68-74 Marlins lost the game and have dropped 11 of their past 13 to plummet from playoff contention, Stanton still seems likely to garner serious NL MVP consideration even if he doesn’t reach 60. The 27-year-old currently leads every other NL player by at least 17 homers, after all, and has slashed an incredible .282/.377/.646 in 604 plate appearances.

Giancarlo Stanton

The excellence Stanton has exhibited could be difficult for MVP voters to ignore, particularly if he does reach the celebrated 60 figure by season’s end. In doing so, the 27-year-old would follow Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Maris and Babe Ruth as the sixth player to accomplish the feat (McGwire and Sosa each did it multiple times) and the first since 2001. That was the year Bonds smashed a record 73. Remarkably, Stanton may have outdone his former hitting coach had he been as otherworldly in the season’s first half as he has been since the All-Star break.

While Stanton racked up a “mere” 26 long balls in 369 PAs between Opening Day and mid-July, he’s already at 28 through 235 attempts over the nearly two months since the Yankees’ Aaron Judge upstaged him at the Home Run Derby on Stanton’s turf in Miami. Stanton has gone yard every 8.39 trips to the plate in the second half, which would translate to 83 over a 700-PA season (Stanton’s on track for 698). Should Stanton continue to stay healthy and hammer HRs at his second-half pace, he’d finish the year with around 65 – a number only Bonds, McGwire (twice) and Sosa (twice) have matched or exceeded.

As superb as Stanton has been, it goes without saying that it will be immensely difficult for him to keep raking at his current clip over the Marlins’ final 20 games of the season. But both the slate of mostly unspectacular starting pitchers scheduled to face Stanton over the next couple weeks and the Marlins’ three-game set at Colorado’s Coors Field thereafter should aid him in his quest to go deep at least six more times this year. Clearly, Stanton’s on the verge of posting one of the most awe-inspiring offensive seasons in the history of the sport. The question is: Will he pull it off?

How many HRs will Giancarlo Stanton finish with this year?
Between 61 and 64 54.89% (3,261 votes)
Fewer than 60 21.44% (1,274 votes)
60 16.07% (955 votes)
65 or more 7.59% (451 votes)
Total Votes: 5,941

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Masahiro Tanaka’s Future

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Whether Angels left fielder Justin Upton opts out of his contract will serve as one of the most intriguing storylines during the early part of Major League Baseball’s upcoming offseason. The same opt-out question applies to Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who may have an easier decision than Upton. While Upton has four years and $88.5MM left on his contract, Tanaka’s remaining pact consists of fewer years and dollars (three and $67MM, respectively). But that doesn’t necessarily make it a slam-dunk call for Tanaka, who, unlike Upton, has had a bit of a rocky season in what could amount to a platform year.

Masahiro Tanaka

Tanaka, who emigrated from Japan on a seven-year, $155MM agreement in 2014, emerged as a front-end starter in the Bronx from the get-go and entered 2017 off a strong three-season stretch. Over 75 starts and 490 innings, the splitter-loving Tanaka logged a 3.12 ERA with 8.17 K/9 against 1.54 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. The only full-time American League starters to post a better ERA during that span were Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez and Garrett Richards, while just nine outdid Tanaka’s combined 10.0 fWAR.

Judging solely on fWAR (2.3), Tanaka is having another good season, though the 28-year-old trails 41 other major league starters in that category. Meanwhile, among the 112 hurlers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year, Tanaka is a below-average 73rd in ERA (4.54, tied with fellow opt-out candidate Johnny Cueto).

Fortunately for Tanaka, the run prevention problems he has had in 2017 aren’t nearly as dire as they appear. A bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (20 percent, up from 14.1 percent over the previous three years) is the main culprit, but Tanaka has only yielded eight long balls in 78 innings dating back to June 17, when his ERA sat at 6.34 and his HR total was already at 21 through 76 1/3 frames. Since then, Tanaka has notched nine quality starts in 12 outings – including a gem against the Red Sox on Saturday – pitched to a 2.77 ERA and racked up 82 strikeouts against 15 walks. Those are ace-like numbers, and a newfound reliance on his slider is among the reasons for Tanaka’s summer success, as FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris explained Friday.

Thanks in part to his adeptness over the past month-plus, Tanaka ranks 13th among starters this season in strikeout-walk percentage (18.7), 13th in infield fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and 15th in the grounder department (49.3 percent). Those are all encouraging signs, clearly, as is the fact that his velocity looks normal. Tanaka should hit the 30-start mark for the second straight year, too, which is especially positive for someone who hasn’t been the picture of durability during his career. He combined for 44 starts in his first two seasons and has dealt with a laundry list of arm issues over the years, the most serious of which being a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Tanaka has managed to pitch through the UCL tear over the past couple seasons, though teams could be wary of it in free agency.  As such, it’s something Tanaka’s going to have to consider when choosing whether to vacate the remainder of his contract.

Should he opt out, Tanaka figures to reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees before officially reaching free agency, which could also negatively affect his market to some degree.  Still, along with a pair of over-30 hurlers in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, Tanaka would be among the most sought-after starters available. And in a league that has seen starters with more questionable track records (Rich Hill, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, to name a few) rake in sizable paydays in recent winters, it’s reasonable to guess Tanaka will indeed venture to the open market in hopes of outdoing the $67MM he’d make by sticking with his current deal.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Will Masahiro Tanaka opt out after the season?
Yes 52.56% (3,086 votes)
No 47.44% (2,785 votes)
Total Votes: 5,871

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Will Justin Upton Opt Out?

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Angels outfielder Justin Upton — if that sounds odd, you might want to click this link — faces an interesting decision after the end of the season. He already has the right to $88.5MM in guaranteed salary for the next four seasons, but can choose instead to opt out of the contract and take his talents onto the open market once again.

Entering the season, the latter course seemed less than likely. After all, Upton managed only a .246/.310/.465 batting line in 2016, his worst-ever full-season batting line. Though he did swat 31 home runs, matching a personal best, Upton was at or near career-worst levels in strikeouts (28.6%) and walks (8.0%). As the second consecutive year in which his output with the bat had declined, there was cause for some concern.

Needless to say, though, Upton has turned things around thus far in 2017. He’s currently slashing .279/.362/.542 and has already knocked 28 balls out of the yard through 520 trips to the plate. Though his strikeouts haven’t dipped, he’s now walking at an 11.0% clip that’s better than his career average, all while sporting a personal-high 44.1% hard-hit rate. And Upton has rated as a quality performer with the glove out in left field.

That’s not where Upton’s case for opting out ends, however. While he is now in his 11th season in the majors — which seems hard to believe — the slugger only just turned 30 a few days ago. And since he has previously received a qualifying offer (and also now has been traded mid-season), he won’t be eligible to receive a QO — meaning there’s no risk of his market being dragged down by draft compensation.

There are plenty of comps that suggest Upton could well out-earn what he already has in hand. On the high side, we have seen several somewhat older outfielders take down nine-figure guarantees: Yoenis Cespedes (four years, $110MM entering age-31 season), Shin-Soo Choo (seven years, $130MM entering age-31 season), and Josh Hamilton (five years, $125MM entering age-32 season) all come to mind. On the lower side, there’s plenty of reason to think that Upton can beat Dexter Fowler’s five-year, $82.5MM deal or the $88MM over four years that Hanley Ramirez received. Of course, Upton himself secured a $132.75MM guarantee before the 2016 season; though he was two years younger, he also was coming off of a less-impressive campaign.

That said, there’s no denying that there’s risk in casting himself back into free agency. Upton may not find it worth his while if he and his agents do not anticipate offers that are all that much more significant. It’s somewhat difficult to forecast the market for power hitters given the recent surge in offense (and home runs, in particular). Last year, several big bats came in somewhat under expectations; this fall, there’ll be competition (especially former teammate J.D. Martinez, but also potentially including older players and possible trade targets).

There’s another month left on the year, and that could matter, too. Upton will have to stay healthy and remain at least mostly productive to have the best potential free-agent case. He might also conceivably just end up deciding he feels comfortable in his new digs. But it’s a good time for a prediction: do you think Upton will opt out? (Link for app users.)

Will Justin Upton Opt Out This Fall?
Yes 55.73% (3,927 votes)
No 44.27% (3,120 votes)
Total Votes: 7,047

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Sonny Gray Trade

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We asked you yesterday to grade the Yu Darvish swap, and today we’ll do the same thing with the other major deadline-day trade: the deal that sent righty Sonny Gray from the Athletics to the Yankees.

Unlike Darvish, the Yanks’ newest hurler can be controlled for an additional two seasons via arbitration. That contract status better lined up with New York’s needs looking forward while also allowing the team to make a significant near-term addition, installing a pitcher who has thrown quite well in 2017. Indeed, by measure of FIP and xFIP, Gray has actually been a bit better than his 3.43 ERA would suggest. While long-term durability questions continue to be aired, the 27-year-old has looked strong since opening the year on the DL.

On the A’s side of the deal, too, health is more a question than is talent. Indeed, two of the three youngsters in the swap — outfielder Dustin Fowler and righty James Kaprielian — are both in the midst of rehabbing very significant injuries. While Jorge Mateo is likely viewed as the headlining piece by Oakland, the club is clearly hoping the other two players will not only return to full health, but will quickly regain their previous trajectory.

So, how do you grade this deal from the perspective of the Yankees? Was it worth giving up this much talent or does Gray stand too great a chance of returning to his injury-riddled, ineffective 2016 form? (Link for app users.)

Grade the Yankees' Acquisition of Sonny Gray
A 48.31% (7,300 votes)
B 37.11% (5,608 votes)
C 10.00% (1,511 votes)
F 2.45% (370 votes)
D 2.14% (323 votes)
Total Votes: 15,112

And how do you feel the A’s did in taking this package instead of others … or rather than holding onto Gray until the fall? (Link for app users.)

Grade the Athletics' Trade of Sonny Gray
B 34.64% (4,698 votes)
C 30.19% (4,095 votes)
A 19.75% (2,679 votes)
D 9.98% (1,354 votes)
F 5.44% (738 votes)
Total Votes: 13,564

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade

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Yesterday’s last-minute Yu Darvish swap represented perhaps the most dramatic move of deadline day for a host of reasons. It not only broke after the deadline itself, but represented a major shift for the Rangers and left the Dodgers with another ace on a loaded pitching staff. While the trade doesn’t really impact the picture in the NL West — the Dodgers were seemingly running away with things without him — it could well change the complexion of the postseason.

The rights to employ Darvish over the next few months — but, mostly, to have him for the NLDS (and, the Dodgers hope, beyond) — came at a cost. Just how much that’ll sting is debatable and perhaps also largely remains to be seen. While the Dodgers held onto the prospects they evidently cherish most (Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler), they gave up an intriguing, near-majors hitter in Willie Calhoun while also sacrificing two high-upside youngsters in A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis.

It doesn’t make much sense to approach a deal like this by contemplating which side “won;” after all, they were both in very different positions. The Rangers essentially decided they did not need Darvish through the end of his contract, since a postseason run was unlikely. And the Dodgers took quite the opposite position, with a willingness to sacrifice pre-MLB talent to add the established hurler.

Instead, given the organizations’ varied approaches, it seems worth polling the MLBTR readership for grades on the deal from the perspective of each side. First, the Rangers: do you think the return will prove significant enough to justify the lessened possibility of a Wild Card, any (perhaps minimal) reduction in the potential to re-sign Darvish, and the draft compensation (a choice at the end of the second round) that would have accrued had Darvish declined a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere? (Link for app users.)

Grade the Rangers Trade of Yu Darvish
B 42.24% (5,549 votes)
A 27.05% (3,554 votes)
C 20.93% (2,750 votes)
D 5.49% (721 votes)
F 4.29% (564 votes)
Total Votes: 13,138

And for the Dodgers … was it worth giving up Calhoun and more for a starter on a team loaded with them? Ought these or other players have been used to acquire a better left-handed relievers than those (Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani) that were acquired? Etc. (Link for app users.)

Grade the Dodgers Acquisition of Yu Darvish
A 55.93% (6,596 votes)
B 25.06% (2,956 votes)
C 12.46% (1,470 votes)
D 3.77% (445 votes)
F 2.77% (327 votes)
Total Votes: 11,794

MLBTR Poll: Best Rental Starter

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Let’s get this out of the way: Yu Darvish will be the best rental arm available, if he is marketed. But all indications are the Rangers won’t do that, barring a total collapse over the next ten days.

Assuming that Darvish isn’t within reach, teams with interest in renting a rotation piece will be looking at a decidedly less accomplished group of starters. (And no, I don’t consider Johnny Cueto a pure rental, even if he is still likely to opt out of his contract.) Here are the best such hurlers that seem reasonably likely to be available (in alphabetical order). Which do you think is the top target?

  • Trevor Cahill, Padres: Like the other members of the Friars’ staff, the 29-year-old is quite affordable. He’s also sitting on a 3.14 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through ten starts on the year, though he did miss time due to injury.
  • Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: Chacin has been rather effective, with a 4.33 ERA thus far, and has also racked up 108 frames. He is also throwing as hard as ever with a 92 mph average fastball.
  • Marco Estrada, Blue Jays: The results have been terrible, but Estrada has struck out 9.9 opposing hitters per nine and could represent quite an intriguing turnaround candidate.
  • Scott Feldman, Reds: He’s hurt now, but had been quietly providing solid innings, as he has for most of his career. If he’s able to bounce back quickly from the DL, Feldman could be valued for his steadiness.
  • Jaime Garcia, Braves: He’s earning a healthy $12MM salary, and has had his ups and downs, but has been quite good at times in the not-so-distant past.
  • Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: Hellickson was failing to get strikeouts for much of the year, but has ramped things up of late. He also has allowed 11 earned in his past 30 1/3 innings.
  • Derek Holland, White Sox: It’s tough to sugarcoat Holland’s struggles since the calendar flipped to June, but he was carrying a 2.37 ERA to that point and has still mixed in some productive outings since.
  • Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays: Likewise, Liriano has not produced results. But he’s still bringing 93 from the left side and can miss bats; perhaps an organization with some ideas on how to get him back to form could take a shot on the enigmatic southpaw.

Which pitcher do you prefer? (Link for mobile users.)

Who is the best available rental starter?
Trevor Cahill 28.22% (2,571 votes)
Marco Estrada 24.73% (2,253 votes)
Jaime Garcia 13.69% (1,247 votes)
Jeremy Hellickson 13.49% (1,229 votes)
Francisco Liriano 8.20% (747 votes)
Derek Holland 6.22% (567 votes)
Scott Feldman 3.04% (277 votes)
Jhoulys Chacin 2.39% (218 votes)
Total Votes: 9,109
Show all

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