MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Zach Britton?
If you haven’t been reading MLBTR for the last few days, let me sum things up: #BrittonWatch is the new #MannyWatch. Want more details on the Orioles’ efforts to trade Zach Britton? Here are your links: today; yesterday; weekend.
If you’ve already read all of that, or don’t want to spend an hour of your time doing so now, the bottom line is that there are loads of plausible suitors. Varying reports suggest one or another team has been more or less aggressive to this point with offers. On the whole, though, there’s no clear indication that a certain club is closing in on an acquisition.
Rather, it seems the Orioles are waiting for someone to come forward with a compelling offer. The Baltimore organization likely feels rather optimistic about the bidding situation. There a broad slate of interest, with nearly every plausible contender mentioned of late as a potential landing spot. Notably, in some cases, getting Britton would also mean keeping him from another a rival.
Despite Britton’s injury history and lack of a recent track record, moreover, his high-powered recent showing has also perhaps separated him by a significant margin from the remainder of the lefty relief market. Assuming the Pirates don’t move Felipe Vazquez, the rest of the possibilities look decidedly less appealing than Britton (at least, a healthy and performing version of him). Zach Duke is probably the next-best rental southpaw, followed by pitchers like Jake Diekman, Jerry Blevins, and Luis Avilan.
So, #BrittonWatch it is, and while he’s the topic of the day, we might as well engage it. We could debate whether Britton is really as valuable a target as the rumors would suggest, but that’ll ultimately come down to individual teams’ scouting assessments. Perhaps we could also take odds and maintain a leaderboard for pursuers, but just because this is happening in Baltimore doesn’t mean it should be treated like the Preakness. Instead, I thought it’d be worthwhile to review briefly each contender’s case for pursuing Britton before polling MLBTR’s readers as to where they think he will end up.
- Astros: They don’t really need Britton, but then they don’t really need much of anything. Tony Sipp has been quite good, and youngster Cionel Perez is another big arm from the left side, but it doesn’t hurt to bring in another piece to match up with. And there’s broader uncertainty at the back of the ‘Stros pen following the demotion of Ken Giles, so Britton’s experience in the ninth could also be a factor. (H/t to MLBTR commenter Mr. MacPhisto for pointing out that I had missed this aspect of the Astros situation.) Perhaps Houston won’t chase the market, but if the organization decides Britton is its top target, then why not?
- Braves: There’s cause to add elsewhere, to be sure, but the back of the bullpen is arguably the area that the Atlanta organization is most in need. With Arodys Vizcaino out for a while longer, the team can’t just sit back and hope he returns. Especially if it turns out to be too costly to get a quality rotation upgrade, the Braves could really stand to add here. Then again, the club has other left-handed options (including top late-inning arm A.J. Minter), so perhaps if it’s going to cough up precious prospects, it would be better served going after a righty (especially one with future control).
- Brewers: It’s tough to see this match representing a true priority given the club’s rotation concerns. Plus, Josh Hader is something like a multi-inning version of peak Britton, while Dan Jennings has been a useful match-up option. Then again, perhaps the Milwaukee organization sees some potential for deepening its relief mix in a manner that will take pressure off of the starting staff.
- Cubs: The Brew Crew’s chief immediate rival faces a generally similar situation. In this case, though, getting better from the left side in the pen is of much greater concern. Both Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing have handed out walks like candy, and though Randy Rosario owns a 2.03 ERA, he has also managed just 17 strikeouts against 14 walks in his 31 frames.
- Diamondbacks: Left-handed relief help isn’t an obvious need. Andrew Chafin has been quite good and T.J. McFarland is getting grounders like he’s Britton while cutting down opposing lefties at will (though he’s also averaging just 4.7 K/9). That said, if the team simply wants to get another quality arm into its relief unit, it could see an opportunity to replace Jorge De La Rosa.
- Dodgers: Luxury tax considerations make this a tough fit, perhaps, and there may not be a ton of urgency with Tony Cingrani set to return and a trio of southpaws already on the active roster. That said, these teams have already proven they can line up on a major deal this summer and the Dodgers may feel the pen is the best remaining area to improve.
- Giants: The CBA tax factors even larger here, but the San Francisco organization has shown itself willing to give up some young talent to shed salary, so there’s no reason it wouldn’t at least consider upping its offer if the O’s are willing to keep some of Britton’s hefty obligation. Of course, there are plenty of southpaw options already on hand for the Giants, and it seems they are in need of more than a finishing piece if they are to stay in the hunt down the stretch.
- Phillies: Money isn’t a problem for the Phils. Improving the late-inning mix, especially from the left side, definitely looks like a need. Though Austin Davis has opened some eyes with a strong debut thus far, he’s still green. Lefty specialist Adam Morgan has been solid, but hardly dominant, against opposing southpaws and has been knocked around by righties.
- Red Sox: The Boston roster is flat-out dominating right now, and certainly doesn’t need a closer. But there’s said to be an interest in adding a significant arm to the back of the pen and it stands to reason that the club will target a southpaw. Vazquez might be a dream get for the Sox, as he’d represent a future closing option when Craig Kimbrel leaves, but otherwise it’s not hard to imagine the club focusing on Britton. (The Orioles, of course, would likely want to leave talks with retribution for having sent Eduardo Rodriguez to the Sox for Andrew Miller years back.)
- Rockies: While the Rockies already invested quite a lot of their resources into the bullpen, the results haven’t been there, especially from the lefties. Jake McGee and Chris Rusin have struggled; Mike Dunn is on the shelf after a very rough start. It’d hurt to pour yet more into the relief unit, but there’s an argument that it’s a primary need for this ballclub.
- Yankees: The rotation is clearly the area to target for the Yanks, who now have a big gap to make up in the division. But the acquisitions likely won’t stop there. Chasen Shreve has been bombed by lefties thus far (.255/.368/.574), and top southpaw Aroldis Chapman functions as a closer rather than a setup man, so it’s sensible to think the New York organization will seek an upgrade. Funds will be a consideration, at least, given the club’s other needs and the luxury tax line.
So, which team do you think is most likely to land Britton? (Link for app users.)
Which Team Is Likeliest To Land Zach Britton?
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Astros 28% (3,649)
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Yankees 22% (2,805)
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Cubs 15% (1,969)
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Phillies 9% (1,117)
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Red Sox 7% (941)
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Braves 6% (780)
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Dodgers 5% (695)
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Brewers 3% (408)
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Diamondbacks 2% (297)
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Rockies 1% (194)
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Giants 1% (164)
Total votes: 13,019
MLBTR Poll: Next-Best Rental Player
You didn’t need to check our ranking of the 75 top trade deadline candidates to know that (former?) Orioles star Manny Machado was the best rental player on the market this summer. He’s an immensely talented, mid-prime player, the likes of which are rarely seen on the block this time of year.
Admittedly, though, deciding how to fill in that list behind Machado was not easy. The most valuable remaining potential trade candidates are those who come with future contract rights, making them less than likely to end up on the move. As for the remaining rental players, let’s just say they all have some demerits. Given the difficulties I had in deciding just how to rank the next-best players who’ll be dealt for only a few months of service, I thought it would be interesting to pose the same basic dilemma I faced to the MLBTR readership.
Note that I’m including Cole Hamels ($6MM buyout on a $20MM club option), Mike Moustakas ($1MM buyout on $15MM mutual option), and Joakim Soria ($1MM buyout on $10MM mutual option) in the poll despite the fact that all come with some future contractual considerations. While not technically rentals, these players will mostly be treated that way by the market. The mutual options are quite unlikely to come into play, in particular. While the Hamels situation is more complicated, it seems to me he should be considered alongside these other starting pitching options.
If you want my thoughts on the players in question, check out the blurbs in the rankings post linked to above. Which do you think is the best asset from this group? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
Who's the next-best rental asset after Manny Machado?
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Zach Britton, RP, Orioles 23% (4,910)
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Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals 18% (3,932)
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J.A. Happ, SP, Blue Jays 14% (3,064)
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Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers 10% (2,083)
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Wilson Ramos, C, Rays 9% (1,946)
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Jeurys Familia, RP, Mets 8% (1,732)
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Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Rays 5% (1,169)
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Matt Harvey, SP, Reds 5% (1,061)
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Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets 4% (875)
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Tyson Ross, SP, Padres 2% (496)
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Joakim Soria, RP, White Sox 2% (468)
Total votes: 21,736
MLBTR Poll: Biggest First-Half Surprise In Standings
With the All-Star break at hand, we’ve already completed that portion of the season often referred to as “the first half.” That’s a demonstrably poor choice of phrasing, given that teams played their 81st games weeks ago, but we’ll roll with it. The break offers a chance to take a breath and take stock. It offers a moment to gain perspective, just before the trade deadline period gets underway in earnest and the postseason races truly heat up.
So, it seems an opportune moment to look back at some of the results we’ve seen to this point of the season. We’ll focus here on team-level results, rather than unexpected outcomes for individual players, though of course the two are often intertwined.
- Densely packed NL West: Okay, this isn’t outwardly the most exciting choice. But it’s rather interesting to see that the phenomenon we observed at the start of June — a densely packed division race — has persisted to the cusp of the deadline. The Dodgers were supposed to run away with things, but simply have not. That means that all the teams involved (that is, the Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, and Giants) will need to treat the summer trade period as one that could make the difference between claiming or falling short of a division title.
- Historically bad Orioles & Royals: I’m sure there’ll be some who’ll laugh at the idea that this is a surprise. But both teams made reasonably significant MLB investments over the winter in hopes of contending or, at least, remaining reasonably competitive. Instead, they both enter the break with sub-.300 winning percentages. In the post-war era, only three teams have finished a season winning less than three of every ten games. What’s scary is that both the Baltimore and Kansas City rosters will likely only get worse over the next few weeks.
- Upside-down NL East: The Phillies and Braves have risen somewhat earlier than expected, just as the Nationals hit a few rough patches. This race could be a fascinating one to watch, particularly if the Philadelphia and Atlanta organizations decide to make aggressive mid-season additions and/or promotions.
- Miserable Mets: The overall picture in the NL East is all the more surprising when you throw in the fact that the Mets have collapsed to the point that they have less wins to this point than the Marlins, despite those two organizations’ divergent offseason approaches. Another rental sell-off is inevitable. It’s still anyone’s guess whether the front office troika will end up overseeing a more significant sell-off.
- Dominant Red Sox: It’s not at all surprising that the Boston organization is winning a lot of ballgames. But this club has stood out even against the other top teams in the league, entering the break 4.5 games ahead of the paces of the Yankees and Astros. The Red Sox have 68 wins, while no National League club has more than 55.
- Upper middle class M’s & A’s: The stratification of the American League is a notable development in its own right. While many anticipated some super-team formations around the game, it really hasn’t worked out that way at all in the N.L. As interesting as the wide gulf itself, perhaps, is the fact that the Mariners and (especially) the Athletics find themselves on the “well over .500” side. Both entered the season with real hopes of fielding winning rosters, true, but it’s tough to imagine that either organization realistically expected to be 19 (M’s) or even 13 (A’s) games over .500 come mid-July.
Poll response order has been randomized. Link for app users.
Biggest First-Half Surprise In The Standings
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Upside-down NL East 39% (4,910)
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Upper middle class M's & A's 27% (3,417)
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Historically bad Orioles & Royals 10% (1,235)
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Miserable Mets 9% (1,177)
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Dominant Red Sox 9% (1,102)
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Densely packed NL West 6% (746)
Total votes: 12,587
Poll: Which Team Will Land Manny Machado?
The recent indication is that trade chatter on Orioles star Manny Machado has picked up of late. Of even greater note is the fact that the team evidently is interested in completing an early deal for its best player, rather than waiting until the deadline itself.
It seems, then, that there’s a real possibility of a deal coming together in the coming days — perhaps even tomorrow, on Machado’s 26th birthday — though the O’s could certainly still decide to wait if offers aren’t yet to their liking. The early movement itself is notable, as the broader market situation could be quite a bit different in a few weeks’ time.
The evident pace of negotiations does not necessarily indicate that one or another team is a favorite. Indeed, as discussed in the above link, there are still quite a few organizations — some identified, some perhaps not — that are engaged to some extent on Machado.
Let’s run through some of the top possibilities on paper (in alphabetical order) before assessing the market in a poll …
- Athletics: The A’s could stand to upgrade over Marcus Semien at short, but face a tough road to the postseason and may not be eager to pay up for a rental. There’s no indication that the Oakland org has been involved in talks to this point. It’s quite a longshot, though it warrants a mention given the on-paper fit and good play of late from the A’s.
- Braves: While the focus has long been on third base, there’s arguably a greater need at short. Johan Camargo has out-hit Dansby Swanson, after all. Regardless, an addition on the left side of the infield would deepen the overall mix. With the Braves continuing to pace the NL East, an immediate postseason push no longer seems overly hopeful at all.
- Brewers: The middle infield has been a problem all year for an otherwise strong Brewers club. While there’s an equally strong argument for pursuit of a starter, the Milwaukee organization could potentially reap huge benefits from a major upgrade at short. And every win will matter in the NL Central race.
- Cardinals: The team is loaded with useful infielders, but could still benefit by adding a star and shuffling some other roster pieces. If the St. Louis organization hopes to keep pace with its division rivals — discussed immediately above and below — it may take a bold strike.
- Cubs: This match made more sense before Addison Russell started turning things on at the plate. It’d be a bit of a surprise at this point if the Cubbies beat the market for Machado with arguably greater needs elsewhere, though they can’t be counted out for a bold move for a rental after the 2016 acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.
- Diamondbacks: Perhaps no other organization has been tied as strongly to Machado as the D-Backs, who benefited greatly last year from the mid-season addition of J.D. Martinez and are now trying to hold off rivals in a tightly-packed NL West. The offensive production from the 4 through 6 positions in Arizona has been lacking, so it’s easy to see the reason for the interest.
- Dodgers: When Corey Seager went down for the year, speculation turned immediately to the possibility of a move for Machado. But with Chris Taylor stepping in at short and blazing hot bats up and down the lineup, it’s not clear that Machado would really be the most sensible player to pursue.
- Indians: The Cleveland organization finds itself in an interesting spot with the division all but in hand but also plenty of holes that could be filled. Adding Machado to play third would mean moving Jose Ramirez to second and Jason Kipnis into the outfield mix. But Machado is not a cheap player, even for a half-season rental. And adding him would likely mean doing less to address struggles in the outfield and bullpen.
- Phillies: One of the clear favorites to land Machado as a free agent, the Phils also look like a prime destination for him in trade. The left-side combo of Scott Kingery, Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford has been a dud in 2018. While there’s likely still hope for some of those players to shake out in the future, a move for Machado would come with the promise of huge near-term impact.
- Red Sox: While they aren’t interested in parting with or giving up on Rafael Devers, the Red Sox could still see Machado as a near-term upgrade at third. There’s no solid indication that this is a distinct possibility, but a bold strike of this ilk can’t be ruled out given the classic AL East battle that’s shaping up.
- Yankees: The same basic reasoning supports involvement from the Yankees, though frankly there’s much less cause for the New York organization to make Machado its prime deadline target. Starting pitching remains the obvious focus, but perhaps the recent injury to Gleyber Torres — which isn’t believed to be serious, but has already driven him to the DL — provides a bit of daylight to consider a strike for Machado.
So, where do you think Machado is most likely to go? (Link for app users.)
Which team will acquire Manny Machado?
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Diamondbacks 23% (5,194)
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Phillies 19% (4,392)
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Dodgers 17% (3,961)
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Braves 8% (1,932)
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Cardinals 6% (1,414)
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Brewers 6% (1,367)
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Yankees 5% (1,088)
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Cubs 4% (982)
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Indians 4% (935)
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Other 4% (913)
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Red Sox 3% (631)
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Athletics 1% (198)
Total votes: 23,007
Poll: Should the Mets Trade Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard?
With the possible exceptions of the Blue Jays’ J.A. Happ and resurgent Padre Tyson Ross, it doesn’t appear any front-end starters will switch teams prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Even though Happ’s amid a fourth straight quality season and Ross has bounced back from major injury troubles, nobody would consider either as aces or players capable of bringing back enormous returns in the coming weeks. The opposite is true in regards to the Mets’ Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, two elite, controllable starters who have come up in trade speculation as the season has progressed.
With the Mets in the throes of an embarrassing campaign in which they’ve plummeted to 31-43 after an 11-1 start, odds are they’ll be inclined to sell before the deadline. And while they’re reportedly willing to listen to potential offers for everyone on their roster, their front office is divided over whether to actually entertain proposals for either deGrom or Syndergaard. One thing’s clear: Their farm system, which Baseball America ranks as the game’s fourth worst, would stand to benefit significantly if the Mets were to part with one or both of their aces.
Despite the potential long-term gains that would come from a deGrom and/or Syndergaard bidding war among contenders, making either available isn’t an obvious decision for the Mets. If New York’s counting on returning to relevance in the near future, both players would factor prominently into a turnaround, given that they’ll remain under affordable control for a while longer. The 29-year-old deGrom comes with arbitration eligibility through 2020 and Syndergaard, 25, isn’t due for free agency until after 2021. The Mets may elect to retain them, then, hoping that those two and a position player group including Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, 2018 injury case Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, struggling youngster Amed Rosario and struggling veteran Jay Bruce help key a return to contention next season.
Part of the reason this has been a disastrous year for the Mets has been the absence of Syndergaard, who went on the disabled list May 29 with a a strained ligament in his right index finger. It’s the second straight year the Mets have had to make do for an extended period sans Syndergaard, who only threw 30 1/3 innings in 2017 on account of a partially torn right lat. Syndergaard’s reportedly progressing in his recovery, though, and his trade value remains immense – as Mets general manager Sandy Alderson suggested when speaking to the media Friday.
“I know how we view him and where he will be once we get him back and I know how the rest of baseball views him,” Alderson said (via Erin Fish of MLB.com). “For that reason I say I know what we have, but at the same time you never say never.”
Along with his “never say never” line, Alderson noted (via David Lennon of Newsday) that the Mets would have to consider offers for their aces if a team comes to them saying, “We’ll give you all of our top-20 prospects.” So, barring an absolutely overwhelming proposal for either deGrom or Syndergaard, it seems the Mets will retain the pair through the season. Should New York do that, though, or would the team be better off trying to bolster its farm system by moving one or both in the next month?
(poll link for app users)
What should the Mets do with their co-aces?
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Trade both 35% (3,236)
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Keep both 35% (3,209)
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Trade deGrom 15% (1,438)
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Trade Syndergaard 15% (1,418)
Total votes: 9,301
Poll: Should The NL Adopt The Designated Hitter?
There are few topics more polarizing among baseball fans than whether Major League Baseball should adopt a universal designated hitter. Proponents of the DH argue that there’s little excitement derived from watching pitchers hit, while detractors lament the loss of strategy that would come from removing the frequent double-switches, determining when to pinch-hit for a pitcher and the general small-ball aspects of the game that are inherently tied to pitchers hitting.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred touched on the subject briefly following the quarterly owners’ meetings this week, as Scott Boeck of USA Today writes. While Manfred didn’t delve into specifics, he did hint that the adoption of National League designated hitters could be on the horizon.
“I think that is a continuing source of conversation among the ownership group and I think that the dialogue actually probably moved a little bit,” Manfred said of the ongoing discussion regarding the DH being utilized by National League clubs. That certainly doesn’t indicate when a potential change of the rules would be put into place, but it does make it sound likelier that said change will be implemented at some point in the future.
It’s true that employing a designated hitter in both leagues would eliminate some more conventional means of strategy. Double-switches force managers to get creative with their lineups and use their bench pieces in selective fashion. Pitchers hitting leads to more sacrifice bunting and creates some degree of gamesmanship when it comes to facing the eighth-place (or, in some instances, seventh-place) hitter ahead of the pitcher. Many hitters have seen an artificial boost to their OBP by virtue of being pitched around or intentionally walked in order to face the pitcher (or in order to force the opposing manager to pinch-hit and thus remove a starter from the game). Those elements, of course, would be no more. Fans who’ve spent decades primarily watching the game played in a certain fashion may understandably bristle at the notion.
Does the advent of a DH in the National League necessarily “eliminate” strategy, though? At a time when defensive shifting is at an all-time high and becoming all the more advanced, it’d be easy to argue that the increased prevalence of data (and its manifestation in the on-field product) simply creates new types of strategy.
It’s commonplace now to not only see fielders shifting at the beginning of a player’s plate appearance but to even begin re-positioning themselves during said plate appearance based on the count. We’ve seen some teams, the Cubs most recently, shift pitchers to the outfield for one batter as a means of keeping them in the game to set up multiple left-on-left and right-on-right matchups that would otherwise be broken up by an opposite-handed batter. (Just this week, Chicago moved Steve Cishek to left field to get a lefty-lefty matchup against the Brewers before bringing Cishek back to the mound to face Lorenzo Cain — a move which Cain amusingly said “kind of broke my heart.”) The Rays have been using relief pitchers to open games in hopes of more effectively neutralizing an opponent’s best hitters early. If anything, strategy seems to be evolving rather than evaporating.
Still, many traditionalists simply enjoy the novelty that comes with pitchers taking turns at bat. I doubt I’m alone in acknowledging that I’ve watched Bartolo Colon‘s home run against James Shields a borderline-unhealthy number of times in my life. Plenty of fans would like to see Madison Bumgarner participate in the Home Run Derby at some point in his career. The arrival of Shohei Ohtani in the United States has only further created some intrigue around pitchers hitting. Allowing pitchers to hit does create some unexpected moments of excitement, as any Diamondbacks fan who watched Archie Bradley‘s seventh-inning, two-run triple during last year’s NL Wild Card game can attest.
At the same time, with the notable exception of Ohtani, there’s little denying that even the best-hitting pitchers simply aren’t good hitters. Bumgarner is considered the game’s best in that regard (again, excepting Ohtani), and the best four-year stretch of his career saw him bat .224/.272/.433 (from 2014-17). That’s a slightly worse level of output than Tommy Joseph turned in for the Phillies last season before being designated for assignment, claimed by the Rangers and, eventually, being sent outright to Double-A.
Pitchers are batting a collective .111/.144/.140 this season and striking out at a 42.8 percent pace. Conversely, the league-average non-pitcher is hitting .249/.321/.413 with a 21.8 percent strikeout rate. As the league explores ways in which to increase the frequency of the ball being put into play, giving the National League a regular designated hitter would be one way to go about doing so. Pitchers batted 5277 times last season and struck out in 2028 of those plate appearances (38.4 percent). Nearly halving that number would’ve resulted in (roughly) 1,000 fewer strikeouts, and the discrepancy between hitter and pitcher strikeouts has only increased from 2017 to 2018.
While many fans would argue that the American League should simply drop the DH, there’s no way that the MLBPA would agree to that during collective bargaining agreement talks, as it’d remove as many as 15 jobs for offensive-minded position players, so for the purposes of this poll, I’ll withhold that option from being an answer. That said, the topic generally makes for a rather spirited debate, so we’ll open this up for all of our readers to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users).
Should the National League begin using the designated hitter?
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No! Keep the NL the way it is! 50% (6,658)
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Absolutely. It's long past due. 50% (6,593)
Total votes: 13,251
MLBTR Poll: Who’s The Favorite In The NL West?
We’re now through substantially more than one third of the regular season. The competitive picture is still unfolding, to be sure, and the trade deadline promises to bring notable roster changes as well. But the general outlines of the postseason race are at least beginning to reveal themselves.
In most divisions, there’s a yawning gap at some point that separates the still-competitive teams from those that seem too far back to mount a charge. In fact, there are spreads of at least 6.5 games present in every division … except for one.
With ~60 games in the books, the NL West has played itself to a near-standstill.
It wasn’t long ago that the D-Backs were sprinting ahead of the pack with the Rockies chasing after them like an eager young pup. The Dodgers were seemingly stuck in second gear, while the Giants were flying like a wounded duck.
If you can forgive that hodgepodge of metaphors and similes, the general picture was one in which last year’s pair of surprise NL Wild Card winners from Arizona and Colorado were doubling down. Meanwhile, the old guard California clubs were not just turning in a mediocre showing on the field, but were facing increasingly worrisome injury situations.
Wait … are we leaving someone out? Ah yes, the Padres. Despite making a big free-agent investment in Eric Hosmer and extending (rather than trading) closer Brad Hand, the San Diego organization was not even seen as a dark-horse contender in all but the most optimistic quarters. And the team’s early record reflected that questionable outlook, making it easy to assume at the time that they wouldn’t factor into the race except as a potential late-season spoiler.
And now? Well, regression has taken its revenge, and done so swiftly. The teams are lined up neatly in a row, one behind the next. Even the Padres are within 4.5 games of first — closer than all but 8 other teams chasing leaders in other divisions. There’s a rather tight spread of talent distribution, too, particularly with the Dodgers losing Corey Seager for the year and Clayton Kershaw for an as-yet-undetermined stretch.
So, with something approaching a reset in the NL West, which team do you see as the favorite the rest of the way? (Team order randomized; app users can access the poll by clicking here.)
Who's the favorite in the NL West?
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Dodgers 41% (2,827)
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D-Backs 23% (1,625)
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Giants 15% (1,065)
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Rockies 12% (832)
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Padres 9% (601)
Total votes: 6,950
Poll: Relievers And The Arbitration Process
A few days back, T.J. Zuppe of The Athletic sat down with former ALCS MVP and current MLBPA player rep Andrew Miller for a chat about what he describes as the “science” aspect in the game of baseball across the past couple of years. Specifically, the two talked about the way pitcher usage is slowly morphing towards a landscape in which each individual matchup, and the leverage situation in each of them, has a much greater impact on when and how pitchers are used.
Perhaps the most notable aspect of their conversation is the subject of the arbitration process as it relates to relief pitchers. Miller describes the arbitration process as “a little bit behind”, which makes a lot of sense considering the fact that reliever raises take the saves stat into significant consideration. With reliever usage shifting the way it has been (the usage of Miller, Josh Hader and Sergio Romo are all good examples), the correlation between the best relievers and the relievers earning the most saves will continue to decrease.
One other item that Miller brought up is that perhaps stats like WPA will end up coming more into play as the arbitration process adapts (painfully slowly) to the way players are valued in free agency. Even that, however, could be problematic considering that Tampa Bay’s “openers” won’t work in particularly high leverage situations to begin the game (as Miller himself notes).
If the way relievers are rewarded during arbitration doesn’t already seem silly to you, consider the fact that, if both entered arbitration today, Arodys Vizcaino would be likely to earn a far larger raise than Josh Hader due to his accumulation of saves, or in essence, the fact that he’s been used in the ninth inning more frequently during his career. Hader, of course, is considered to be a far better relief pitcher based on nearly every statistical category typically used to evaluate reliever value.
One of the issues this creates, says Miller, is an incentive for pre-arb or arb-eligible players (and their agents) to push for use in certain innings, rather than accept the assignments they’re given during the game. Speaking from a hypothetical player’s point of view, Miller says, “If the only difference is the situation I’m pitching in, that’s worth $4 million, I want that $4 million. I’m going to go in there (and demand it).”
He’s right, and the fact that the arbitration system incentivizes a structure that runs somewhat contrary to the most efficient use of a bullpen seems problematic. So we want to hear your thoughts. What would you like to see happen to the arbitration process as it relates to relievers? (Poll link for app users)
What Should Happen To The Arbitration Process?
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It should be completely overhauled; it's outdated and a prominent issue 54% (877)
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It should be altered slightly during the next CBA to fix these issues 30% (482)
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It should stay the same; it will catch up slowly as it always does 17% (273)
Total votes: 1,632
Poll: Where Will Hanley Ramirez Sign?
Hanley Ramirez‘s release became official yesterday afternoon when he went unclaimed on waivers, and he’s now a free agent who is eligible to sign with any big league team. Because the Red Sox are paying the roughly $15MM remaining on his 2018 salary, any new club can sign him to a big league deal that guarantees him only the pro-rated league minimum — roughly $358K. The vesting option that was on his last contract was torn up the moment he was released, so he’s free to sign anywhere on a straight one-year deal.
The 34-year-old Ramirez was outstanding in April (.330/.400/.474) and abysmal in May (.163/.200/.300), and his overall .254/.313/.395 batting line through 195 plate appearances checks in well south of a league-average bat in the estimation of metrics like OPS+ (88) and wRC+ (90).
It’s not especially difficult to see what contributed to his downfall when looking at his batted-ball data in each month. Fangraphs credited Ramirez with a whopping 40.3 percent hard-contact rate in April, and he posted an excellent 24.7 percent line-drive rate that month. In May, his hard-hit rate plummeted to to just 20.9 percent, and his line-drive rate dropped to 4.5 percent. The cause of that deterioration in quality of contact, of course, will be up to his next team to determine, but it’s clear that Ramirez was going through something more than a mere BABIP-fueled slump.
Where exactly he’ll sign in the coming days figures to be a source of no small amount of speculation (both here and elsewhere). Ramirez’s recent plate appearances were clearly not encouraging, nor was a 2017 season in which he battled shoulder injuries and hit just .242/.320/.429, albeit with 23 homers. Ramirez hasn’t had a healthy, productive full season in the big leagues since slashing .286/.361/.505 with 30 big flies and 28 doubles in 620 PAs with the 2016 Red Sox. It’s a lot to expect him to return to that at age 34, even if his shoulder is recovered from 2017’s injuries.
Still, Ramirez is a no-risk proposition for any club that signs him, and if he can provide even slightly above-average production at the plate, he’d be a fine asset to acquire at the minimum rate. Given his track record and the relative peanuts he’ll cost, it’s a virtual lock that Ramirez will sign with what will be his fourth MLB organization over the next few days.
The Rockies jump out as an immediate potential fit. Ian Desmond has been their primary first baseman, but they’ve cycled through a few players at the position and received a disastrous .190/.277/.346 from their first basemen on the season. Ramirez wouldn’t even need to improve upon his overall season output to date in order to represent a massive upgrade for the Rox; merely hitting at a below-average but still-competent rate would improve their lineup substantially.
The Mets have been an oft-speculated fit for Ramirez on Twitter, but Adrian Gonzalez and Wilmer Flores have formed roughly average platoon at first base, and it’d be a surprise to see the Mets jettison one veteran first baseman with an average bat to pick up another who hits from the same side of the dish as Flores.
Braves fans have suggested that Ramirez could play third for them as a bridge to prospect Austin Riley, but it doesn’t seem likely that any club would give Ramirez regular reps at a position other than first base. Still, Atlanta did roll the dice on a comeback tour at the hot corner for Jose Bautista, so perhaps the idea shouldn’t be entirely dismissed.
Generally speaking, the bulk of the contending clubs in the National League have received solid production at first base, so it’s seems far more likely he’ll end up in the American League rather than get buried as a bench bat on an NL roster. After all, the DH slot can help mask the fact that he’s somewhat of a defensive liability.
The Orioles and Royals are the only two teams who have failed to get above-replacement-level production from both their first base and DH slots on the whole. With that in mind, though, the Orioles already have three first base/DH types on their roster and therefore would have to jettison one of Pedro Alvarez or Danny Valencia. Both of those players have been generally productive on the year, so a move to acquire Ramirez wouldn’t make much sense. The Royals, though, have been rolling out Hunter Dozier at first base. He has options remaining, and Ramirez could prove an upgrade if he’s able to put an ugly May behind him.
One has to wonder how much longer the Blue Jays will be willing to send Kendrys Morales to the plate; after being worth -0.6 fWAR last season due to a wRC+ of just 97 across 608 plate appearances, he’s already matched that negative fWAR total in just 141 PA in 2018 thanks to a .208/.284/.344 batting line. Ramirez would provide the Jays with a clear upgrade at DH.
The Rays and White Sox both stand out as teams who would benefit from having Ramirez in the lineup. The Rays haven’t gotten much out of Brad Miller this season or last, while the White Sox seem to have a rotating cast of rookies and sophomores cycling through that slot in their lineup. Still, being that both clubs are in rebuilding phases, it’s possible that they’d benefit more from simply seeing what they have in young players.
We’ll leave it up to the readers at this point. Where do you think Ramirez will end up? (Poll link for app users)
Where Will Hanley Ramirez Sign?
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Rockies 29% (2,576)
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Mets 17% (1,522)
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Blue Jays 15% (1,374)
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Braves 12% (1,083)
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Rays 11% (990)
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White Sox 9% (845)
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Royals 6% (549)
Total votes: 8,939
Poll: Which Surprise Team Has Best Shot At Playoff Berth?
As the 2018 MLB season nears the one-third mark, the playoff races in each league are beginning to take shape. While it’s no surprise that the majority of the sport’s so-called super teams have lived up to the billing thus far, several unexpected contenders may be emerging to challenge for postseason berths. None of the Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Phillies or Pirates were popular playoff picks entering the campaign, but all are in contention at this point, and a few of those teams even possess elite records.
The most successful of those clubs has been Seattle, which is one of just five teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Mariners have raced to a 32-20 mark (.615), the fourth-best record in the American League, even though they’ve had to go without superstar second baseman Robinson Cano for two weeks and won’t get him back in the near future. Cano suffered a fractured right hand in mid-May, but the 80-game suspension he incurred almost immediately after that injury is the more costly blow because it’ll render him ineligible for the playoffs – if the Mariners qualify, that is.
A postseason berth for Seattle would be its first since 2001, thus snapping the longest playoff drought in American sports. There’s clearly plenty of work for that to happen, particularly for a team that hasn’t been spectacular statistically and possesses a less shiny 27-25 Pythagorean record. But the Mariners’ actual record right now is so impressive that they won’t need to be great from here on out to remain firmly in the mix throughout the regular season. FanGraphs is projecting a mediocre 56-54 win-loss total over the Mariners’ final 110 games, but even in that scenario, they’d finish with 88 victories – three more than Minnesota amassed in 2017 en route to an AL wild-card berth.
The wild card is likely the M’s only path to the playoffs, as even though they’re just one game out of the AL West race, there’s little question the reigning World Series champion Astros will pull away with the division. Given the talent in the AL, a wild-card spot will be tough to come by for the Mariners, but general manager Jerry Dipoto seemingly increased his team’s odds last week when he acquired reliever Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span from the Rays. The Mariners already owned one of baseball’s best bullpens without Colome, and his presence should make Seattle an even harder out in close games. At 15-8, the Mariners have been one of the majors’ top teams in one-run contests this season.
Staying in the AL West, Oakland has perhaps exceeded expectations at 28-25, though it has scored fewer runs than it has allowed (234 to 237). Still, despite its underwhelming Pythagorean mark (26-27), FanGraphs is projecting an above-.500 final record for Oakland (82-80) – which would be its first such season since 2014 and could keep it in the discussion into September. However, with the Yankees or Red Sox (whichever team doesn’t win the AL East), Angels and Mariners among the teams fighting for two wild-card positions, a playoff position looks a bit unrealistic for the A’s.
Over in the National League, both the Braves (30-21) and Phillies (29-21) have gone from serving as longtime NL East doormats to looking like two of the premier teams in the game. Milwaukee, arguably a surprise team but one that did garner some preseason hype after winning 86 games in 2017, is the lone NL club with a superior record to Atlanta and Philadelphia. And only the Cubs have a better run differential than the Braves, who have outscored their opponents by 60 (261 to 201).
The Braves’ arduous, years-long rebuild is clearly paying dividends now, as a host of players under the age of 25 – including Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna (who’s now on the DL), Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara and A.J. Minter – have been among their driving forces this year. With that group joining a few slightly older, already established players (superstar Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Mike Foltynewicz, to name a few), Atlanta looks as if it’s going to be around for a long time. And it might be ready now to return to the playoffs, where it hasn’t been since 2013, though the NL East is going to be a dogfight with both the Phillies and favored Nationals (29-22) right behind the Braves.
As for those Phillies, they own an even longer playoff drought than the Braves (six years), but that streak doesn’t look as if it’ll last much longer. Like Atlanta, Philadelphia went through a few years of suffering while simultaneously managing to stockpile young talent (Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Seranthony Dominguez, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Scott Kingery) that has either already established itself in the majors or is in the midst of doing so. Philly’s also a sleeping giant in terms of payroll, a club capable of spending alongside other big-money juggernauts, and it’ll put that advantage to use in the coming years. It already started last winter with the expensive free-agent signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, two additions which have paid off so far (Santana did endure a poor April, but he’s gotten off the mat this month).
As with the Braves, the Phillies should be around for a while, and a playoff spot this year certainly isn’t out of the question. Although, despite their tremendous starts, FanGraphs is projecting both teams to finish with 82 wins and extend their playoff droughts.
Baseball’s other Pennsylvania-based team, the low-payroll Pirates, lost the battle for public opinion over the winter when they traded two veteran cornerstones (Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole) for younger players and didn’t sign any free agents to major league contracts. Some Pirates fans even called for owner Bob Nutting to sell the team in the wake of those deals, but he didn’t oblige.
Now, the Pirates are a solid 28-24 (plus-22 run) and have gotten there with some help from Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove, two players acquired in the Cole package. Fellow offseason acquisition Corey Dickerson – whom general manager Neal Huntington stole from the Rays in another trade – has been even better, while veteran holdovers Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli are also amid excellent seasons. Pittsburgh may be able to hang in the race all year, then, for the first time since 2015 – its most recent playoff berth. It’s going to be an extremely tall task to actually return to the postseason, though, with six NL teams – including the division-rival Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings and several more breathing down its neck.
Every year in baseball, surprise teams emerge to upset the preseason apple cart. Just as the Twins, Diamondbacks and Rockies crashed the playoff party last year, at least one of the Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Phillies or Pirates could do it in 2018. The question is: Which team has the best chance to play into the fall?
(poll link for app users)
Who's most likely to make the playoffs?
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Braves 50% (6,627)
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Mariners 20% (2,670)
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Phillies 20% (2,626)
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Pirates 5% (710)
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Athletics 5% (632)
Total votes: 13,265