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Poll: Should The Cubs Trade For A Bat This Summer?

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The Cubs are one of the better teams in the National League this year. Their 50-35 record leaves them tied with the Phillies for the second seed in the NL, and they’ve led their division since April 4 without interruption. Much of that can be attributed to an excellent offense headlined by the offseason addition of Kyle Tucker and the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong. With that being said, they lost some steam in the month of June after posting a 13-13 record and watching their lead in the NL Central shrink to just two games.

Between their strong start to the season and their fading lead in the division, Chicago figures to be one of the more aggressive buyers in the game this summer. Most of the focus has been on starting pitching, and for good reason. Shota Imanaga remains a steady front-of-the-rotation arm and Matthew Boyd has been a revelation this year with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts, but the loss of Justin Steele at the top of the Cubs’ rotation has been felt deeply. Jameson Taillon (85 ERA+), Colin Rea (87 ERA+), and Cade Horton (79 ERA+) have all pitched to middling results even by the standards of a back-of-the-rotation arm, while Ben Brown’s ERA ballooned to 6.13 before he was optioned to Triple-A upon Imanaga’s return from a hamstring strain last week.

Considering that Boyd’s 98 2/3 innings of work is already his highest total since 2019, adding a rotation arm or two is a slam-dunk for this team. That obvious need could be overshadowing another major hole for the Cubs, however. It’s somewhat bold to suggest the team that leads all of baseball in position player fWAR (18.9) and has the third most potent offense in baseball (116 wRC+) could be a bat short, but Chicago has gotten -0.3 fWAR from the third base position this year. That’s the worst figure in baseball, and the team’s 62 wRC+ at the hot corner is ahead of only the Reds and Marlins. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a strong case for the Cubs to add another hitter to the lineup earlier this week, and third base is the natural position for Chicago to upgrade.

2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw is currently holding down the for at the position. Grades on Shaw’s defense are mixed, as he has -1 Outs Above Average but +5 Defensive Runs Saved. That latter figure trails only Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ernie Clement, and Caleb Durbin this year. Even if the more optimistic view of Shaw’s defense is taken, however, his offense has been lackluster with a .221/.305/.315 (80 wRC+) in 203 plate appearances this year. He was optioned to the minors for about a month earlier this season, but even since returning his 89 wRC+ is well-below league average. The club’s internal options behind Shaw are uninspiring at best. Vidal Brujan has a wRC+ of 9 this year in a bench role with the team, meaning he’s been 91 below league average offensively. Jon Berti’s wRC+ of 42 is only marginally better. While Justin Turner has improved after an ice cold start to the year, he still carries a wRC+ of just 62 on the season and is overmatched defensively at third base in his age-40 season.

There should be clear upgrades available this summer, if the Cubs are inclined to pursue them. Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks looks like the best bat potentially available at any position, and he’s already clubbed 26 homers as the everyday third baseman in Arizona. Willi Castro is enjoying what could be a career year on the Twins (122 wRC+) and can play all over the diamond, including third base. Even a bench or platoon option could be a substantial improvement given the production of Chicago’s reserves. Ryan McMahon and Hayes have both gotten some trade buzz this summer, but both players are below-average hitters on underwater contracts. More palatable choices who could theoretically be available include Amed Rosario of the Nationals, Ramon Urias of the Orioles, and Abraham Toro of the Red Sox.

It’s hard to argue with the notion that the Cubs could make themselves a better team by adding a third baseman, or at least another infielder who can help carry the load at third base. With that being said, resources are finite. The Cubs’ once-vaunted farm system has taken hits due to the graduations of players like Crow-Armstrong, Shaw, and Horton, trades for Tucker and Michael Busch, and tough seasons for some top prospects like James Triantos. They still have a fairly robust group of near big league ready talent to trade from, but it could be hard to part with Owen Caissie as long as the possibility of Tucker leaving in free agency this winter remains on the table.

Trading for help on offense would necessarily require using capital that otherwise could have been spent to add another starter. Perhaps targeting a less expensive bench contributor could be a way to add infield help without compromising the club’s ability to go after a big name rotation add or two like Sandy Alcantara, Merrill Kelly, or Mitch Keller, but it could be hard for the Cubs to justify spending resources on another bat to further bolster an offense that has averaged more than five runs per game this season.

How do MLBTR readers view Chicago’s third base situation? Should the Cubs be aggressive in trying to add a starting third baseman to supplant Shaw down the stretch? Should they stick with their current offense and focus entirely on adding pitching? Or perhaps they should try to bolster their depth with a low-cost bench addition? Have your say in the poll below:

How Should The Cubs Handle Third Base This Summer?
Focus on pitching and trust Shaw to handle third base. 47.24% (1,198 votes)
Try to find a bench piece who can complement Shaw and bolster the infield depth. 26.66% (676 votes)
Make adding a starting third baseman a priority this summer. 26.10% (662 votes)
Total Votes: 2,536

Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

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The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.

Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.

That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.

For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.

On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.

Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.

Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.

How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Twins Buy Or Sell This Summer?
They should sell off short-term assets while making controllable additions to try and balance the two approaches. 47.10% (973 votes)
They should sell in order to set themselves up for the future. 42.45% (877 votes)
They should buy in order to maximize the 2025 season. 10.45% (216 votes)
Total Votes: 2,066

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?
Yes, they should trade him before this year's deadline. 69.42% (3,510 votes)
No, he should be a building block in their rotation. 21.93% (1,109 votes)
Yes, but they should wait until the offseason or next year's deadline. 8.64% (437 votes)
Total Votes: 5,056

Poll: NL Cy Young Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:

Paul Skenes

After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.

Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.

Logan Webb

When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.

He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?

Zack Wheeler

No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.

His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.

MacKenzie Gore

Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.

Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?

Other Options

While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.

Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Be The NL Cy Young Winner In 2025?
Paul Skenes 35.26% (1,235 votes)
Zack Wheeler 27.35% (958 votes)
Logan Webb 20.90% (732 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 11.25% (394 votes)
MacKenzie Gore 5.25% (184 votes)
Total Votes: 3,503

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Be The AL Cy Young Winner In 2025?
Tarik Skubal 45.94% (2,917 votes)
Max Fried 25.34% (1,609 votes)
Garrett Crochet 10.69% (679 votes)
Hunter Brown 8.36% (531 votes)
Jacob deGrom 6.88% (437 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 1.45% (92 votes)
Kris Bubic 1.32% (84 votes)
Total Votes: 6,349

Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:

Shohei Ohtani

The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.

Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.

For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.

James Wood

He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.

Other Options

While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.

Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Be The NL MVP In 2025?
Shohei Ohtani 57.18% (3,211 votes)
Pete Crow-Armstrong 25.94% (1,457 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 7.23% (406 votes)
Fernando Tatis Jr. 4.97% (279 votes)
James Wood 4.68% (263 votes)
Total Votes: 5,616

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:

Aaron Judge

Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.

That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.

Cal Raleigh

If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.

The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.

Bobby Witt Jr.

After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.

Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.

Other Options

Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will be the AL MVP in 2025?
Aaron Judge 54.96% (4,111 votes)
Cal Raleigh 37.38% (2,796 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 2.70% (202 votes)
Jeremy Pena 2.65% (198 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 2.31% (173 votes)
Total Votes: 7,480

Poll: Should The Cubs Extend Jed Hoyer?

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Many organizations around the game tend to keep the contract status of their front office executives under wraps, but some clubs opt not to do this. One such organization is the Cubs, who have been run by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer since he took over for Theo Epstein in November 2020. Hoyer’s contract is up after the 2025 season, a fact he himself acknowledged during Spring Training. While club chairman Tom Ricketts has previously spoken positively of Hoyer’s work at the helm, he’s stopped short in the past of offering a full vote of confidence and did not sign him to an extension prior to his lame duck season.

That could be a simple acknowledgement of the disappointment associated with the last several years of Cubs baseball. Chicago hasn’t made the playoffs under Hoyer’s guidance and last won a playoff game back in 2017. Some of those losing seasons were somewhat inevitable, as ownership cut payroll prior to the 2021 season and that lack of resources in conjunction with an early-season losing streak led to a massive trade deadline sell-off during Hoyer’s first season leading the front office. That kicked off a short rebuilding period where the team did not expect to win in 2022, but by 2023 the spending (and expectations) had ramped back up. That resulted in back-to-back 83-win seasons where Chicago missed the playoffs by a few games.

Entering 2025, the Cubs actually lowered payroll relative to 2024 after falling short in pursuits of top free agents like Alex Bregman and Tanner Scott. That didn’t stop them from being aggressive in other ways, though, as they surrendered a massive package to bring star outfielder Kyle Tucker into the fold for his final season before reaching free agency. The addition of Tucker, in conjunction with lower-level additions like Matthew Boyd, have so far allowed Chicago to weather the losses of front-of-the-rotation starters Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga and put themselves firmly in playoff position. The team has a 45-29 record entering play today, good for a 5.5-game lead in the division and the best record in National League.

Much of that success is due to young players Hoyer brought into the organization finding success. Pete Crow-Armstrong has developed into one of the game’s most exciting young stars after Hoyer acquired him from the Mets in exchange for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams at the 2021 trade deadline and Michael Busch has blossomed into one of the league’s better first basemen after being acquired from the Dodgers during the 2023-24 offseason. While less established than Crow-Armstrong and Busch, recent first-round picks Cade Horton and Matt Shaw have made their big league debuts and appear to be entrenched as long-term assets in the rotation and on the infield at this point.

While those positives are all exciting, the Cubs’ farm system has taken a bit of a hit after the trades that brought in Busch and Tucker. Hoyer surrendered Cam Smith, Jackson Ferris, and Zyhir Hope in those deals, each of whom have blossomed into exciting young talents with their new organizations. The team’s track record in free agency under Hoyer has been somewhat spotty as well. Deals struck with international free agents like Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki have proved to be relative bargains, and other large deals like those given to Dansby Swanson and Jameson Taillon have more or less returned the value expected from them. On the other hand, the Cubs were forced to eat some of Cody Bellinger’s contract just to get him off the books. Some mid-level additions in recent years like Drew Smyly, Hector Neris, and Trey Mancini offered minimal value while eating up considerable dollars in the team’s budget, as well.

No front office executive has a spotless track record. Hoyer is no exception to that, but his errors don’t stand out as particularly egregious compared to other execs around the league. With that being said, there aren’t many front office leaders around the game who have the same payroll capacity at their disposal without at least some playoff games to show for it. Big market teams like the Giants, Mets and Red Sox have made changes at the front office level due to lack of playoff success in recent years despite those teams having made the postseason more recently than the Cubs.

Ricketts hasn’t shown himself to have an itchy trigger finger during his time as chairman of the organization; Epstein was hired in 2011 and he remained with the organization until voluntarily walking away in 2020, at which point Ricketts handed the reins to Hoyer after years as Epstein’s GM. Perhaps that means a return to the playoffs will be enough to convince Ricketts to keep Hoyer in the fold. The Cubs seem well positioned to do that at this point in the calendar, and while things can certainly change over the next few months, it wouldn’t be a shock if this team made a deep run into the postseason.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs organization should proceed? Has Hoyer’s work developing the team’s farm system and delivering a legitimate contender in 2025 earned him a longer stay in Chicago, or should the organization move in another direction when his contract expires? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Cubs Extend Jed Hoyer?
Yes, regardless of the outcome of the season. 33.10% (1,033 votes)
Yes, but only if the Cubs make the playoffs. 25.02% (781 votes)
No, regardless of the outcome of the season. 24.90% (777 votes)
Yes, but only if the Cubs make it deep into the playoffs. 16.98% (530 votes)
Total Votes: 3,121

Poll: Can The Blue Jays Keep This Up?

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Entering the 2025 season, the narrative surrounding the Blue Jays had centered primarily around the future of star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for quite some time. Questions regarding Guerrero’s future arguably overshadowed questions regarding the state of the team as a whole coming off an 88-loss season in 2024 that saw the team finish dead last in the AL East. The Jays finally locked up their homegrown star in early April, but the following month saw the team fail to do much on the field that inspired confidence in their status as potential contenders. On May 7, the Jays had a lackluster 16-20 record and would need to leapfrog six teams in order to get into playoff position. Six weeks later, they’ve done all of that and more. Toronto currently boasts a robust 40-33 record that places them in the second of three AL Wild Card spots and just two games back of the Yankees for the AL East crown.

Going 24-13 over their past 37 games is certainly impressive, but it begs the question: which version of the Blue Jays is the real one? Looking at the season as a whole, Toronto is a somewhat middling club. Their team wRC+ of 106 ranks 12th in the majors, which is solid but hardly spectacular. The same can be said of their bullpen, which ranks 11th in ERA and 9th in FIP this year with identical 3.60 figures in both stats. While both of those numbers are more or less in line with what one would expect from a Wild Card contender, the starting pitching is a different story. The Jays’ rotation has been a disaster this year with a 4.61 ERA (26th in the majors) and 4.72 FIP (27th). That bottom-five rotation in the sport has left the Jays with a negative run differential, as they’ve been outscored by their opponents 319-315 even after this recent stretch of strong play.

A closer look at the team’s performance over the past six weeks offers a hint at what’s changed. While the Toronto offense has been only slightly better than average on the season as a whole, Blue Jays hitters have been among the sport’s very best from May 8 onward. In that time, they’ve slashed .270/.339/.443 as a team with a 121 wRC+, second to only the Dodgers in MLB. In other words, the team’s average slash line during their recent hot streak has roughly mirrored Gunnar Henderson’s overall offensive production this year. Guerrero is a big part of this, as he’s begun to heat up after a slow start to the year with a 152 wRC+ over the past six weeks. Bo Bichette (131 wRC+) and Alejandro Kirk (145 wRC+) have played closer to the star-level expectations they had fostered in previous seasons than 2024’s down years during that same time frame, as well. Not all of that success is entirely sustainable—no one should expect Addison Barger to replicate his 167 wRC+ from the past six weeks long term—but the extreme outlier performances have been balanced by injuries to plays like Daulton Varsho and slumps for players like George Springer (98 wRC+ since May 8).

Some things have remained consistent about the Blue Jays throughout the entire season, however. Even as they’ve found success in recent weeks, the starting pitching has remained brutal. The rotation’s ERA is actually worse over the past six weeks than it has been for the season overall, with a 4.78 ERA that comes in ahead of only the Orioles, Rockies, and Athletics. Decent mid-rotation performances from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman haven’t been enough to outweigh the struggles of Bowden Francis and the absence of Max Scherzer. Francis was recently placed on the injured list himself and Scherzer is working his way back to the big league roster on a rehab assignment at present, but even a strong return from Scherzer ahead of his 41st birthday would leave the Jays at least one starter short without much top-of-the-rotation impact.

On the other hand, the Jays have generally managed to make up for their abysmal starting pitching with a defensive unit that has been consistently excellent. No team in baseball has come close to Toronto’s defensive prowess this season according to Fangraphs’ defense metric, which gives the Blue Jays a 20.3 figure that’s good for more than double the second-place Braves (8.3). According to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Kirk and Ernie Clement have both been elite defensively, as has the center field tandem of Myles Straw and Varsho. Andres Gimenez has also been excellent at the keystone, and even Guerrero has looked solid at first base. While Bichette’s defense leaves much to be desired at shortstop and Springer shouldn’t play the field at this point in his career, it’s a strong defensive unit that has managed to buoy the Jays through their pitching woes. It wouldn’t be a shock if they managed to continue fielding well enough to overcome their weak pitching, at least until closer to the trade deadline when they’ll presumably look to make some external additions.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the Blue Jays’ chances of sustaining the success they’ve found in recent weeks? Will they be able to hold onto a Wild Card spot and get back into the postseason, or are they destined to fade down the stretch? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Blue Jays Make The Postseason In 2025?
Yes 57.28% (1,790 votes)
No 42.72% (1,335 votes)
Total Votes: 3,125

Poll: Who’s The Best Pure Hitter In This Winter’s Free Agent Class?

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In the context of free agency, MLB players are typically graded on their overall long-term value and earning power. MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list is typically topped by all-around star talents who are in the midst of their prime years. Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge are outliers even among top-of-the-line free agents, but previous years saw well-rounded hitters still in their prime with substantial defensive value like Carlos Correa, J.T. Realmuto, and Anthony Rendon viewed as the top hitters available in free agency.

With all respect to Realmuto, however, even his best years haven’t seen him offer the kind of offensive firepower that someone like Nelson Cruz could offer within that very same free agent class. If a team was looking specifically for a impactful addition to the lineup, they might not necessarily be drawn to the top free agent position player. This winter, there’s little question about who the top free agent position player will be in terms of overall value and earning power. With that said, there’s a number of extremely impactful hitters who figure to be available. Who’s the best choice to transform a lineup? A look at some of the options:

Kyle Tucker

Ever since the Blue Jays signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a massive extension shortly after Opening Day, there’s been virtually no debate who free agency’s top overall player would be this winter. Kyle Tucker spent years as a key cog in the Astros’ dynasty, and is one of the most impressive overall talents in the game at the moment. This ranking isn’t about earning power or even overall value, but Tucker remains one of the top players in the sport even when strictly looking at offensive production. Looking at his time in Chicago this year, the star outfielder has slashed .284/.394/.515 (153 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts, 13 homers, and 18 steals across 72 games for a first-place Cubs team this year.

That’s a phenomenal performance, but Tucker has also been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Since his first full 162-game season in 2021, Tucker’s a 146 wRC+ hitter whose strikeout rate has always been below 16%. His walk rate has never fallen below 9%, and that combination of patience and contact ability is unmatched. Among the hitters with the 30 lowest strikeout rates in the sport, Tucker walks the most. Among the hitters with the 30 highest walk rates in the sport, Tucker strikes out the least. He’s the only player within the top 30 of both categories over the past five years, and he’s combined that with the power to hit 30 homers and the speed to steal 30 bases.

Pete Alonso

After finding an extremely soft market in free agency last year, Alonso returned to the Mets on a two-year deal that affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2025 season. That opt-out opportunity seems certain to be exercised at this point, as Alonso has taken his game to the next level for his age-30 campaign. In 69 games this year, Alonso has slashed an incredible .293/.390/.570 (169 wRC+) in 72 games. In addition to his 17 home runs so far this year, Alonso’s floating a career-high 11.0% walk rate with his lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) since 2022 while swatting an NL-best 22 doubles.

Perhaps most exciting of all is that there’s some reason to believe he’s been even better than those numbers indicate. His 20.9% barrel rate is nothing short of absurd, his xwOBA is actually more than twenty points higher than his wOBA, and that .434 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Ohtani in the majors. He remains a limited defender who doesn’t excel at first base and will be returning to free agency at age 31, but none of that stops him from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport who would improve virtually any lineup.

Alex Bregman

Another star player who wound up signing a short-term deal this winter, Bregman took off early with the Red Sox and slashed .299/.385/.553 (158 wRC+) across 51 games while playing quality defense at third base. It was a hot enough start to raise the question of whether he’d consider opting out of the two years and $80MM remaining on his deal with the Red Sox this winter. That’s certainly still possible, but a “significant” quad strain has now sidelined him for the foreseeable future. A lengthy injury layoff could make Bregman hesitate to leave that much guaranteed money on the table, and this weekend’s blockbuster trade that sent Rafael Devers from the Red Sox to the Giants could leave Boston brass eager to keep their other star third baseman in the fold long-term.

Setting aside the possibility Bregman doesn’t even end up returning to the open market, it’s also worth noting that his underlying numbers aren’t as strong as his actual production so far this year. Bregman’s .331 BABIP this season is nearly fifty points higher than his career mark and with his strikeout rate the highest it’s been since 2018, it’s hard to imagine him maintaining his .385 on-base percentage long-term. Even so, Bregman’s looked rejuvenated in Boston after a down year during his final season in Houston. If he manages to return from injury looking strong, he’ll have put himself firmly in the conversation.

Kyle Schwarber

It’s been quite a while since Schwarber was available to teams in free agency, as what was at the time a career year in 2022 with the Nationals and Red Sox allowed him to land a four-year deal with the Phillies. Weak defense has pushed him into a full-time DH role over the years, but Schwarber’s bat has been everything Philadelphia could’ve hoped for when signing him. He’s slashed .224/.349/.494 (131 wRC+) with 153 homers in 538 games as a Phillie while walking at a 15.4% clip. That’s excellent offensive production, but what makes Schwarber truly stand out is the phenomenal walk year he’s in the midst of.

Through 71 games, 2025 has been the best season of Schwarber’s career by virtually every metric. He’s slashing .247/.379/.544 with a wRC+ of 155, his 16.2% walk rate is the fourth-highest figure in the majors this year, and he’s even cut his typically-high strikeout rate to a more manageable 26.1%, his lowest since 2019. He’s swatted 22 homers in 314 plate appearances as well, with a .297 ISO that trails only Judge, Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, and Corbin Carroll among qualified hitters this season. While he’ll be 33 next year, expected stats give no indication he’s at risk of dropping off, as his xwOBA has been almost 30 points higher than his actual wOBA this year.

Other Candidates

While Tucker, Alonso, Bregman, and Schwarber stand as the most likely candidates to enter free agency as the best hitter available, they’re far from the only possibilities. Paul Goldschmidt is a future Hall of Famer in the midst of a resurgent season at the plate, but he’ll be 38 next year and at risk of the sort of abrupt decline many hitters in their mid-to-late 30s face. Marcell Ozuna’s 145 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season is the 11th-highest figure in all of baseball, but he’ll turn 35 this November and his power output has already dropped off considerably this year. Ryan O’Hearn has put up brilliant numbers for the Orioles this year with a 152 wRC+, but hasn’t shown an ability to hit lefties to this point in his career and lacks the track record of many of these other players.

Who do MLBTR readers think will be the most impactful pure hitter available in free agency this winter? Have your say in the poll below:

Who's The Best Pure Hitter In This Winter's Free Agent Class?
Kyle Tucker 72.97% (3,560 votes)
Kyle Schwarber 9.33% (455 votes)
Pete Alonso 8.87% (433 votes)
Alex Bregman 6.68% (326 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 2.15% (105 votes)
Total Votes: 4,879
Show all

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