Poll: Who Will Win The League Championship Series?
The postseason field has been narrowed down to four teams, in mostly chalk fashion. Each member of the final four is a division winner, and three of the clubs received first-round byes. The Dodgers were the only club who had to advance through the wild card round, and the reigning World Series champs aren’t exactly underdogs. In fact, all of the Brewers, Mariners, and Blue Jays had a lot more questions to answer about their playoff readiness given a recent lack of postseason success, yet all three teams were up to the task in winning their League Championship Series matchups.
Only the Yankees have reached the World Series more times than the Dodgers, who are vying for the franchise’s 23rd trip to the Fall Classic. Los Angeles is the defending champion aiming for its third ring in six seasons, against three teams with much less of a postseason resume. The Blue Jays are a perfect 2-0 in the club’s only two World Series appearances, but they last reached the Series in 1993. The Brewers’ lone Series appearance was so long ago (in 1982) that the club was still in the American League, and Milwaukee fell to the Cardinals in a seven-game nail-biter. The Mariners can get a big albatross off their backs just by winning the AL pennant, as Seattle is the only team in Major League Baseball to have never reached a World Series.
The ALCS between the Mariners and Blue Jays carries some added historical import since the two teams both joined MLB in 1977. The only previous playoff series between the two expansion cousins took place in 2022, when Seattle swept Toronto in two games in the best-of-three wild card series, and made an epic comeback from an 8-1 run deficit to capture a 10-9 win in Game 2. That crushing loss was part of the 0-6 playoff record the Jays carried during the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era, before Toronto broke out with a dominant win over the Yankees in this year’s ALDS.
Blue Jays hitters erupted for 34 runs and a collective .338/.373/.601 slash line over the four games against New York. While that level of an explosion came as a surprise, Toronto led the league in both batting average and OBP this season, while also finishing near the top of the table in runs and OPS. Seattle’s season-long numbers weren’t quite as impressive, yet the club has been one of baseball’s best offensive teams since Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were acquired at the trade deadline. Led by these two big bats, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, and the all-around brilliance of MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’ powerful lineup will provide the Jays’ pitching staff with a huge challenge.
In terms of run prevention, the Blue Jays have a significant edge on defense. Toronto had a collective +51 Defensive Runs Saves and +14 Outs Above Average in the regular season, in comparison to Seattle’s +9 DRS and -30 OAA. This could potentially help the Jays counter the Mariners’ deeper rotation, as with Bryan Woo expected to return from injury in the ALCS, all five of the M’s regular starters will be available in some capacity. How exactly those starters will be deployed is still a matter of debate, as George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo all had to pitch during Seattle’s 15-inning marathon with the Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS.
The Blue Jays held a 4-2 edge in the season series with the Mariners this year, and have the homefield advantage as the AL’s top seed. That is a significant point for a Jays team that is 56-27 at Rogers Centre during the regular season and playoffs, plus the Mariners’ road record is only 40-43. Turning to the National League, the Brewers and Dodgers each had identical 52-29 home records in the regular season, and Milwaukee was an impressive 45-36 away from home, while the Dodgers were only 41-40 on the road.
The other eye-opening statistic is Milwaukee’s perfect 6-0 record in head-to-head play against Los Angeles this season. As daunting as the Dodgers‘ star-studded roster may be, the Brewers have had their number in 2025, and will now have to try and do it again in the postseason. L.A. has won the only two prior postseason series between the two franchises, including a seven-game win in the 2018 NLCS.
That 2018 season marked the last time the Brew Crew won a playoff series until their five-game win over the Cubs in this year’s NLDS. The series as a whole was a demonstration of the kind of quality pitching and timely hitting that the Brewers have enjoyed all season. A relative lack of power is basically the only flaw for a lineup that posted tremendous numbers, but Andrew Vaughn‘s career turn-around since being acquired by the Brewers in June has added a new dimension to the offense.
A pair of shaky starts from Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester at Wrigley Field could be red flags for the Brewers against L.A. Peralta pitched well enough in Game 1 that his Game 4 performance might just be a hiccup, yet if Priester can’t get on track, the Brewers will have to lean even harder on a bullpen that has already logged a lot of innings in the NLDS. Milwaukee is as creative as any team in getting the most out of its pitching staff, so expect plenty of unconventional pitcher usage as the Brewers will try to keep the Dodgers at bay.
After a somewhat underwhelming regular season by their high standards, the Dodgers may have flipped the switch for October, sweeping the Reds in the wild card series and then dispatching the Phillies in a four-game NLDS. Even with several stars (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and an injury-diminished Will Smith) yet to get rolling at the plate, the Dodgers have been aided by a red-hot Mookie Betts and contributions from up and down their seasoned lineup.
Roki Sasaki‘s emergence as the club’s seeming first choice at closer has been huge for Los Angeles, and perhaps addresses the team’s biggest weakness. If Sasaki is now a high-leverage option late in games and the excellent L.A. starting rotation remains in form, the Brewers have a pretty narrow window to strike against the rest of the struggling Dodger bullpen.
Who will win the ALCS?
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Blue Jays 51% (5,019)
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Mariners 49% (4,834)
Total votes: 9,853
Who will win the NLCS?
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Dodgers 53% (5,177)
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Brewers 47% (4,609)
Total votes: 9,786
Will The Pirates Trade Dennis Santana?
After years of speculation, the Pirates traded their closer at this past summer’s deadline. David Bednar was shipped off to the Bronx for a three-player package headlined by catching prospect Rafael Flores. That opened the ninth inning for breakout setup man Dennis Santana, who got an extended run as a closer for the first time in his career.
Santana has been a revelation since the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Yankees in June 2024. The Dominican-born righty tossed 44 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball down the stretch that year, earning some stability with the fifth team of his big league career. He began this season in a setup role, then briefly took over as closer when Bednar’s early-season struggles got him demoted to Triple-A. Bednar was back in the ninth by the end of April, but the closer role became Santana’s for good after the deadline.
The various roles didn’t slow him down. The 29-year-old Santana turned in 70 1/3 frames with a career-best 2.18 earned run average. He recorded 16 saves and 12 holds while only relinquishing three leads all season. Santana had a less impressive 3.75 ERA after the trade deadline, yet that’s mostly attributable to a five-run blowup at Coors Field on August 1. He worked to a 1.90 ERA while holding opponents to a .152/.236/.291 slash in 23 appearances after that.
Santana doesn’t have the usual closer profile. He struck out 22.2% of batters faced, right around the league average for big league relievers. His 94.7 MPH average fastball speed is fine but not exceptional for a late-inning arm. Santana’s wipeout slider is his bread-and-butter offering, a pitch that gets enough whiffs that teams could project his strikeout rate to climb by a couple percentage points. He’s never going to be Mason Miller, though, and most clubs would probably project Santana more as the second or third-best arm in a contending bullpen.
Pittsburgh received trade interest in Santana at the deadline. The Phillies were the only team specifically known to have checked in, but it stands to reason the Bucs heard from at least a handful of clubs. They clearly didn’t find an offer to their liking. They’re now down to their final season of contractual control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Santana for a $3.4MM salary that easily fits within the budget of any team, even one that runs payrolls as low as the Bucs do.
The Pirates aren’t intentionally rebuilding, but they’re coming off a 71-91 season that represented a step back from their consecutive 76-win campaigns before that. Should the Pirates view this offseason as a sell-high opportunity while letting Isaac Mattson, Justin Lawrence and Carmen Mlodzinski compete for the ninth? Will they?
Weigh in on our latest poll.
Should The Pirates Trade Dennis Santana?
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Yes 60% (1,524)
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No 40% (1,036)
Total votes: 2,560
Will The Pirates Trade Dennis Santana?
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Yes 52% (908)
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No 48% (838)
Total votes: 1,746
Poll: Will Ha-Seong Kim Opt Out?
It wasn’t long ago that infielder Ha-Seong Kim looked like a strong bet to land a nine-figure deal in free agency. Last September, Kim was wrapping up a season in which he had hit .233/.330/.370, good for a league average wRC+ of 101. He combined that with strong defense at shortstop and 22 steals on the base paths, and it was actually the weakest of his last three seasons in the majors. Since the start of 2022, Kim had hit .250/.336/.385 with 72 steals, a 17.9% strikeout rate, and a walk rate of 11.0% with 13.0 bWAR and 10.5 fWAR accumulated.
A player who was consistently worth three to five wins per season entering his age-29 season looked like a slam dunk for a sizable deal, but that was derailed when he underwent shoulder surgery 364 days ago. He wound up signing a $29MM guarantee with the Rays that spanned the 2025 and ’26 seasons, though it gave him the opportunity to opt out of the final year and $16MM of that deal if he so chose. Kim’s campaign this year was not an especially robust one, as he appeared in just 48 games and hit .234/.304/.345 in 191 plate appearances. The Rays were concerned enough about the possibility of having Kim on payroll in 2026 that they exposed him to waivers last month, at which point he was claimed by the Braves.
On paper, that might make the decision to opt in and try to bounce back next year an easy one for Kim. It’s hard to say that a 191 plate appearance sample size where he posted an 82 wRC+ with middling defensive grades would improve his stock in free agency much, after all. With that being said, it may not be an entirely foregone conclusion. Kim did manage to look much more like his former self down the stretch with Atlanta, hitting .253/.316/.368 (91 wRC+) with a 16.3% strikeout rate and some of the strongest expected numbers of his career. His overall production remained below average due in part to a BABIP of just .271, but it suddenly became much easier to see Kim returning to the average to slightly above average bat he once was after his performance in the Braves organization.
Of course, that time in Atlanta represents just 98 plate appearances, which makes it difficult to draw any significant conclusions. The Braves themselves certainly appear satisfied with Kim’s progress, though, as president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has made no bones about his desire to keep the infielder in the fold for next season. With a relatively barren market for shortstop-caliber players outside of Bo Bichette, it’s not hard to imagine other teams seeing Kim’s upside and being willing to spend a good bit more than the $16MM guarantee Kim would be opting out of, even if that would come in the form of a similarly short-term, opt-out laden arrangement as the one he signed last winter.
There’s certainly risk in opting out of a guaranteed $16MM payday coming off an injury-marred season, and it would be entirely understandable if Kim preferred to simply stick with the Braves and hope to bounce back enough in 2026 that he puts himself in line for a lucrative contract next winter. With that being said, it must be considered that Kim is represented by the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras is known for preferring his clients to test free agency when possible. That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, however; Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole both had the opportunity to test free agency via opt outs last winter and ultimately declined to do so, though Cole did initially opt out before mutually agreeing with the Yankees to remain in the organization on the terms of his original contract.
How do MLBTR readers expect Kim to handle his impending option? Will he test free agency and try to take advantage of a weak shortstop class, or is he more likely to stick with Atlanta on his current deal? Have your say in the poll below:
Will Ha-Seong Kim Opt Out Of His Contract?
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Yes 53% (3,005)
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No 47% (2,640)
Total votes: 5,645
Poll: Should The Twins Trade Pablo Lopez This Offseason?
The Twins conducted a complete fire sale at the trade deadline this year as they shipped 11 players off their big league roster, but one significant player who stayed in place was ace right-hander Pablo Lopez. The talented righty was limited to just 14 starts this season by a hamstring strain and a shoulder strain before his season came to an end in September due to a forearm strain.
The fact of Lopez’s injury-marred season left the Twins unable to move him at the deadline this year when they purged the majority of their veteran players, but that doesn’t mean a deal can’t be made this offseason. After all, the aforementioned forearm strain that ended his season came with “no concern” regarding Lopez’s UCL or elbow, and all indications point to him being expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for the 2026 campaign. What’s more, Lopez was nothing short of excellent when healthy this year as he pitched to a 2.79 ERA with a 3.19 FIP in 75 2/3 innings of work.
That’s the sort of top-of-the-rotation potential that contending teams will want to bring in desperately this winter, and the Twins could stand to benefit from trading Lopez during an offseason where there are few free agents who offer much certainty. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez all had tough years that didn’t quite reach their typical standards, while Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber face health-related questions after seasons coming off major surgery. Lopez has his own flaws, of course, including his array of recent injuries and a pedestrian 4.08 ERA as recently as last year. Even so, the uncertainty surrounding this crop of free agent starters can only serve to make Lopez more attractive by comparison.
It’s unclear what the Twins’ payroll capacity or competitive expectations for 2025 are, but if the team embarks on a lengthy rebuild it would make little sense to hold onto the final two years and $43.5MM left on the Lopez’s contract. Young arms like Mick Abel, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa are all likely to compete for a spot in the rotation. Holdovers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober will surely be in the rotation (unless they’re traded themselves), and Kendry Rojas could be ready for the majors at some point next year as well. That deep group of young rotation pieces makes Lopez a bit more expendable to the Twins than he would be for most teams, at least if they aren’t expecting to compete next year.
Given the fact that Lopez would surely bring back a hefty return on the trade market and the depth the Twins currently enjoy in their rotation, using the right-hander to infuse more offensive talent into the club’s roster would make a lot of sense. With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Twins actually still have some notable talent on paper. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober could form a front three in the rotation that many contenders in the league would be jealous of. Star outfielder Byron Buxton has been healthier of late and has the offensive ability to be an anchor for a playoff lineup. Players like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have shown impressive ceilings despite their inconsistency, while young bats like Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall could take a big step forward. It’s not impossible to imagine a viable offensive core coming together as soon as next year, especially if top prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins can contribute at some point.
Of course, even with those positives the Twins would need to significantly invest in the team in order to build a real contender for 2026. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2026 to fall into the range of $95MM, and while that leaves around $40MM in budget space relative to the 2025 club’s payroll it’s an open question how much of that (if any) will actually be reinvested into the major league club given the clear financial motivations behind this summer’s Correa trade.
The Twins would need serious help in the bullpen in order to compete after losing Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, and Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and players like Kody Clemens and Austin Martin starting regularly at first base and in left field wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence either. If the front office is facing substantial financial constraints that weren’t in place this time last year, there may be an argument for moving Lopez even if they do want to compete next year. After all, his $21.75MM salary could then be reinvested into the offense or bullpen, both of which have much less depth than the rotation does at present.
How do MLBTR readers view the situation? Should the Twins trade Lopez this offseason, either in hopes of reallocating his salary to other parts of the roster or as part of a full-scale rebuild? Or should they keep their ace in the fold to give themselves the best shot of winning next year? Have your say in the poll below:
Should The Twins Trade Pablo Lopez This Winter?
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Yes 69% (2,750)
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No 31% (1,227)
Total votes: 3,977
Poll: Will The Phillies Exercise Jose Alvarado’s Option?
The Phillies are still fighting for their playoff lives in the NLDS against the Dodgers, but whether L.A. completes the sweep today or Philadelphia mounts a comeback and makes it all the way to the World Series, the offseason is looming. Five days after the World Series concludes, teams will have to make their first major roster-related decisions of the offseason when club options come due. The majority of these options lack much intrigue, but the Phillies face the interesting call of deciding whether to pay lefty reliever Jose Alvarado $9MM for his services next year or offer him a $500K buyout and send him to free agency.
The 30-year-old Alvarado has accomplished quite a lot in parts of nine seasons as a big leaguer. Among 88 relievers to log 300 or more innings since the start of the 2017 season, Alvarado’s 3.45 ERA (37th) and 3.50 SIERA (40th) both rank in the top half while his 3.21 FIP (15th), 29.7% strikeout rate (14th), and 51.8% groundball rate (13th) all rank in the top-15. That look at his overall body of work casts Alvarado as a very solid relief arm, if a step below the elite tier. In a market where even one year deals for quality setup men often break eight figures, a $9MM option on a pitcher like that seems like an easy choice to exercise, particularly given Philadelphia’s difficulties finding quality replacements for key pieces like Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this past offseason.
Things may not necessarily be that simple with Alvarado, however. While Alvarado’s overall stats are quite good, he’s experienced a great deal of year-to-year volatility throughout his career. He’s been utterly dominant, as he was when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 42 appearances with the Phillies back in 2022. Other years, however, he’s been more pedestrian than anything else. Of his nine seasons in the majors, just five of them have seen him post an ERA below 4.00.
That volatility makes him far less reliable than many other late inning arms around the game. With closers like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams expected to be available this winter, it’s at least plausible the Phillies could feel their funds are better spent elsewhere. That’s all before considering Alvarado’s recent history, which has been ugly both on and off the field. Even when looking at his performance the past two years in a vacuum, his numbers haven’t been especially exciting. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Alvarado has pitched to a 4.00 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP.
Those are the numbers of a decent middle reliever, but not someone you would trust in a high leverage situation. The elephant in the room that is Alvarado’s PED suspension earlier this year further complicates the decision Philadelphia faces. It’s impossible for anyone other than the Phillies themselves to know what sort of impact Alvarado’s suspension had within the clubhouse, but from a purely performance-related standpoint the suspension calls into question how well the southpaw will be able to sustain his previous success going forward. A string of eight appearances down the stretch where he posted a 7.50 ERA while surrendering three home runs in six innings before his season ended due to a forearm strain did little to inspire confidence headed into next year, as well.
Even with all those potential red flags acknowledged, however, it’s still not hard to make the case for the Phillies to pick up Alvarado’s option. The club will surely be focused on filling the void impact players like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will leave in the lineup, and it will be a pricey endeavor to either re-sign or replace these free agents. The rotation may not be the stabilizing force that it once was, as Ranger Suarez is also a free agent, Aaron Nola struggled badly this year, and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome.
This all adds more pressure on the bullpen to perform than ever before in the team’s current window. Even in Alvarado’s weakest seasons, he’s been a viable middle relief arm, and it’s nearly impossible for him to be a worse investment than Jordan Romano and his 8.23 ERA were this season. Perhaps, then, locking in the combination of upside and a solid enough floor that Alvarado provides will make sense for the team as they look to 2026 with only Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks locked into the bullpen behind closer Jhoan Duran. Even if the Phillies don’t want to roster Alvarado next year, there’s the distinct possibility that another club in need of a left-handed arm for their bullpen might be interested in working out a trade for Alvarado given his relatively affordable salary and substantial upside.
How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Alvarado’s upcoming option? Will they keep him in the fold to either work out of their bullpen next year or try to trade this winter, or will they cut bait and let him walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Phillies Exercise Their Option On Jose Alvarado?
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No 51% (1,531)
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Yes 49% (1,483)
Total votes: 3,014
Poll: Should The Orioles Stick With Tony Mansolino?
The Orioles saw their 2025 season more or less end before it started due to a brutal 15-32 record in their first 47 games. That start to the season saw manager Brandon Hyde get fired in mid May, while third base coach Tony Mansolino took over as the club’s interim manager. The Pirates decided to stick with Don Kelly long-term after he took over for Derek Shelton earlier this year. The Angels opted against keeping Ray Montgomery in the manager’s chair after he took up the mantle due to Ron Washington’s illness.
Mansolino has neither been extended nor dismissed, and Mike Elias remains in place as the club’s president of baseball operations, leaving no uncertainty in the front office to delay the club’s decision. Instead, Mansolino remains in limbo. Mansolino is set to be a candidate for the manager job in Baltimore, but he’s far from guaranteed to remain in the role and a wide-ranging search is expected. That makes some sense. With a young core that was in the playoffs in both 2023 and ’24, the Orioles are still in the middle of their contention window even despite this year’s disastrous 87-loss campaign. A quick turnaround is not only possible, but perhaps even expected given their collection of young hitting talent.
That could attract plenty of interesting candidates to the role, and the allure of hiring a big-name manager is obvious. After all, the Reds’ decision to hire Terry Francona last offseason got them to the playoffs in a 162-game season for the first time since 2013. The Rangers’ decision to hire Bruce Bochy a few years ago got the franchise its first ever World Series championship that same year. Joe Maddon’s second year as manager in Chicago ended the club’s infamous World Series drought. For a franchise like Baltimore that last won the World Series in 1983 and is still in the early years since emerging from a lengthy rebuilding period, it would be understandable if those success stories held some appeal.
Mansolino managed Baltimore to a 60-59 record after taking over for Hyde in spite of one of the weakest rotations in baseball, an offense that suffered from injuries and under-performance, and a sell-off at the trade deadline that shipped out valuable pieces like Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. The Orioles had a 35-30 record under Mansolino through the day of the trade deadline, a 94-win pace that would actually represent an improvement not only over this season, but also the club’s 2024 record if maintained over a full season.
Of course, evaluating managerial performance is difficult to do from the outside of an organization. In a sample of just 65 games, it’s easy for one hot streak to change the perception of the stretch. Even Mansolino’s 119 games on the job can be looked at with something of an asterisk. After all, most teams would look a great deal better if you simply ignored their worst 43-game stretch of the year.
How do MLBTR readers think the Elias and the Orioles should approach their managerial vacancy? Did Mansolino do enough in his time managing the team this year to earn a longer opportunity, or should the team pivot to a fresh voice? Have your say in the poll below:
Should Tony Mansolino Manage The Orioles In 2026?
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No 68% (2,651)
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Yes 32% (1,265)
Total votes: 3,916
Poll: Who Will Win The Wild Card Series?
The 2025 regular season is in the books, and the baseball world is now gearing up for what might be a wild postseason. It took until Game 162 to finalize the full slate of playoff teams and matchups, but now we know the eight clubs who will take part in the wild card round that begins on Tuesday, as “October baseball” gets started a bit early this year on September 30. All WCS matchups are best-of-three, and will take place entirely in the home ballpark of the higher-seeded team.
The Guardians will meet the Tigers again after Cleveland posted a 5-1 record against Detroit over a pair of series in the last two weeks, contributing to the AL Central’s epic shakeup. The Tigers held a 9.5-game lead in the division before going 3-13 over their last 16 games to barely eke out a wild card slot. The Guards, meanwhile, went 19-4 over their final 23 games to overtake Detroit and claim Cleveland’s third division title in the last four years.
After all of that, the two clubs find themselves facing off in the postseason for the second straight year. The Guardians needed the full five games to oust Detroit in the 2024 AL Division Series, as last season the Tigers were the team surging into the playoffs after a late-season hot streak. All of the momentum is on the Guardians’ side at this point, and even though the Tigers will have Tarik Skubal going in Game 1, Cleveland’s pitching has been on such a roll that the Guards have the overall pitching advantage. The Guardians held an 8-5 record against the Tigers in regular-season play this year.
One of baseball’s greatest rivalries will be renewed again in October when the Yankees host the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Blue Jays to fall just short of the AL East crown, despite an eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season. New York’s rotation and homer-heavy offense seem to be clicking at the right time, yet the Sox had seemingly had the Yankees’ number this year, with a 9-4 record in head-to-head play.
After falling short to the Dodgers in last year’s World Series, the Yankees are eager to return the Fall Classic and finally win the first championship of the Aaron Judge era. Boston hasn’t quite been the same since Roman Anthony was lost to an oblique injury in early September and the rookie star’s status remains unclear for postseason action. However, the Red Sox have a well-rounded roster and an ace of their own in Garrett Crochet, plus the organization is hungry for postseason success in their first playoff trip since 2021.
The Cubs have also just ended a mini-drought in reaching October for the first time since the shortened 2020 season, as Chicago stepped up to win 92 games after posting 83-79 records in both 2023 and 2024. They’ll now host the Padres in the first postseason meeting between the two clubs since 1984, when San Diego fought back from a 2-0 series deficit to win a best-of-five NLCS and deny Chicago a trip to the World Series. Forty-one years later, it’s the Padres who might feel slightly more cursed at the moment, since the club has yet to advance beyond the NLCS in their three previous playoff trips in the last six seasons.
There’s plenty of pressure on the Friars to finally reach the pinnacle of this era of success, though Chicago is hoping for more than just a playoff appearance after its win-now trade for Kyle Tucker last winter. After starting 38-22, the Cubs have been more okay than elite (54-48) over the better part of the last four months. The series’ Wrigleyville locale could be impactful, as the Padres were only 38-43 on the road this season.
The Dodgers host the Reds in a matchup of two teams with very different recent postseason histories. Los Angeles has won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, and is looking to become baseball’s first repeat World Series champ since the 1998-2000 Yankees pulled off the three-peat. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is in the playoffs for just the fifth time in the last 30 years, and the Reds haven’t won a playoff series since all the way back in 1995 — when they beat the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Winning “only” 93 games counts as a relative disappointment by the Dodgers’ standards, and the club will need to navigate an extra playoff round. This puts more pressure on the beleaguered L.A. bullpen, and Will Smith‘s participation is a question mark due to a hairline fracture in his right hand. The rotation is on a roll, however, and naturally there’s a lot of built-in playoff experience for the reigning champs. The young Reds gained some seasoning in beating out the Mets for a wild card berth, and of course manager Terry Francona is no stranger to October. Cincinnati’s rotation and bullpen will need to continue their excellent form to counter Shohei Ohtani and company, and the wild card series would be a great time for the inconsistent Reds lineup to get on track.
Which four teams do you think will reach the Division Series? Vote now in our polls:
Who wins, Tigers or Guardians?
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Cleveland 64% (8,004)
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Detroit 36% (4,529)
Total votes: 12,533
Who wins, Red Sox or Yankees?
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New York 56% (6,595)
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Boston 44% (5,081)
Total votes: 11,676
Who wins, Padres or Cubs?
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San Diego 50% (5,407)
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Chicago 50% (5,334)
Total votes: 10,741
Who wins, Reds or Dodgers?
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Los Angeles 72% (7,764)
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Cincinnati 28% (3,012)
Total votes: 10,776
Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?
This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.
A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.
That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.
While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.
Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.
That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi‘s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.
If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.
How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Pirates trade Mitch Keller this winter?
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Yes, trade him for help on offense and get his salary off the books. 73% (1,862)
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No, hold onto him unless overwhelmed by an offer from another team. 27% (682)
Total votes: 2,544
Poll: Jack Flaherty’s Player Option
Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.
Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.
After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.
His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.
When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.
Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.
Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.
While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.
How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:
Should Jack Flaherty Exercise His Player Option For 2026?
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Yes, he should stay with Detroit next year. 62% (2,489)
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No, he should test the open market this winter. 38% (1,533)
Total votes: 4,022
Poll: Can The Guardians Push Their Way Into The Postseason?
A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.
Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.
What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.
With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.
That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Guardians Be In The Playoffs This Year?
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No 56% (1,468)
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Yes 45% (1,182)
Total votes: 2,615