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Jacob deGrom To Remain With CAA

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As recently as last night, Mets ace Jacob deGrom told reporters that he’d yet to settle on who his new agent will be in the wake of Brodie Van Wagenen’s appointment as the Mets’ general manager. That decision now looks to have been made, as SNY’s Andy Martino reports that deGrom will remain with CAA Baseball (Van Wagenen’s former agency), where he’ll be represented by agent Jeff Berry (Twitter link).

Van Wagenen, Berry, and Nez Balelo had shared responsibilities for running CAA, so the recent change at the top left the latter two men as co-heads of the agency. While deGrom had the right to speak with other agencies (and presumably did so) after Van Wagenen fully divested himself of all ties to CAA, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that deGrom’s decision was made because he valued the stability of remaining with the only agency he’s known since being drafted.

If and when the Mets do broach the subject of an extension with deGrom and Berry, Van Wagenen’s involvement in the process will be limited. At the time of his introduction to the New York media, Van Wagenen was asked about a potential conflict of interest when negotiating against deGrom and other Mets clients in arbitration settings. COO Jeff Wilpon fielded the question (link via the Post’s Dan Martin), saying that Van Wagenen’s contract has “provisions … to deal with any conflicts of interest.” Asked specifically about a long-term deal for deGrom, Wilpon responded:

“We didn’t discuss specifics on any one player like that. I think [deGrom] is to be determined and Brodie is going to have to recuse himself from some of those discussions. He will have to set an overall tone for the organization, which way he wants us to go, and then we’ll have to have some others be responsible for doing the actual contract.”

Beyond that quote, Martino further tweets that Van Wagenen indeed “must recuse himself” from any talks with deGrom, although contract situations centering on any of Van Wagenen’s former clients will likely face some scrutiny in the short term. While concerns surrounding the matter might fade in the second, third and fourth seasons of Van Wagenen’s reported four-year contract, it’s fair to assume that he presently has knowledge of his former clients’ interests that would not be privy to the standard general manager. The precise manner in which Van Wagenen’s limitations would be enforced, to this point, isn’t clearly laid out, but the fact that deGrom is now being represented by Van Wagenen’s former partner figures to further place the situation under a microscope when negotiations begin.

The minor shift in deGrom’s representation has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom Win Cy Young Awards

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell and Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced on Wednesday night.

Blake Snell | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Snell received 17 of the 30 first-place votes, with the other 13 first-place nods going to Astros ace Justin Verlander. In the end, Snell narrowly edged out Verlander on the weighted ballot system, with 169 total points to Verlander’s 154. Cleveland’s Corey Kluber finished a distant third, followed by Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Blake Treinen, Edwin Diaz and Luis Severino, in that order (full voting breakdown here).

As for deGrom, his closest competition was Washington right-hander Max Scherzer, though in the end, voting didn’t prove to be close. DeGrom toppled Scherzer in a landslide, taking home 29 of the 30 first-place votes (with Scherzer securing the other). Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Colorado’s Kyle Freeland finished third and fourth, while Patrick Corbin, Miles Mikolas, Josh Hader, Mike Foltynewicz and Jon Lester rounded out the voting (full breakdown here).

Snell, a former top prospect, broke out in his first full season as a big leaguer and thrust himself into the ranks of the elite with a dominant 2018 campaign. The No. 52 overall pick by Tampa Bay back in 2011, Snell solidified himself as an MLB-caliber starter last season with 24 starts of 4.04 ERA ball, but he overpowered opponents in 2018, pitching to a 1.89 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 31 starts. His 180 1/3 innings trailed Verlander’s 214, but Snell’s per-inning dominance proved to be enough for him to take home tonight’s hardware. No pitcher in baseball tallied more than Snell’s 21 victories.

Looking forward, while the Rays are more experimental with pitching roles than any club in the league, there’s little doubt that Snell will be handled like a traditional front-of-the-rotation workhorse. Soon to turn 26, Snell is under club control for four more seasons and won’t even reach arbitration eligibility until next winter. One can only imagine that the Rays would love to lock Snell up to a long-term pact, but a historically dominant campaign has unequivocally raised the asking price for the newest Tampa Bay ace.

Jacob deGrom

DeGrom has received Cy Young votes in two prior seasons but had never finished in the top five. With an MLB-best 1.70 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 217 innings this past season. deGrom can now add a Cy Young trophy to a list of accolades that also includes 2014 Rookie of the Year honors and a pair of All-Star nods.

The Cy Young victory for deGrom only further serves as a data point that voters have increasingly moved away from placing any real value on a pitcher’s win-loss record when assessing his value; for all of his individual dominance in 2018, deGrom received virtually no run support and was saddled with a 10-9 record that was far from indicative of his consistent excellence.

His future is a bit less certain than that of tonight’s co-winner, as deGrom is under the Mets’ control for only another two seasons. While he’s previously expressed interest in signing a long-term deal with the Mets, deGrom’s agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, was the surprising pick to be named the new general manager of the Mets. He’ll need to determine a new representative before any extension talks can begin in earnest, as Van Wagenen has fully severed ties to all clients and all duties from his former agency, CAA Baseball.

For the time being, deGrom will take his Cy Young season to the negotiating table in arbitration as he negotiates what should be a sizable raise over 2018’s $7.4MM salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects deGrom to earn $12.9MM this winter.

Industry Notes: MASN, Wright, Mariners, Amateur

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Over at The Athletic, Meghan Montemurro takes a fascinating look at how monster free agent contracts are negotiated. Subscribers will certainly want to read the entire piece for themselves, but there are a few notable takeaways that are worth discussing here. Notably, Montemurro’s efforts at canvassing prior signings reveals that heavy and early ownership involvement is a staple in major, long-term deals. Every front office/ownership dynamic is different, of course, but unsurprisingly the level of coordination required increases as the deal size goes up.

Ultimately, there’s no way to separate the higher-level business considerations from the hot stove — or, indeed, the game itself. With that in mind, here are some recent industry notes …

  • The Nationals are hoping that a hearing later this week will represent a major step toward the resolution of their longstanding dispute with the Orioles over television rights fees, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. A three-person panel consisting of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather, and Blue Jays CEO Mark Shapiro will hear the case. A prior arbitration proceeding way back in 2014 was invalidated by the courts owing to a finding of a conflict of interest in the Nats’ choice of counsel; that decision ultimately led back to this new MLB-constituted panel. As Janes explains, the arbitral proceeding will address a pair of five-year rights-fees periods for the jointly-owned (and Orioles-controlled) Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, with hundred of millions of dollars at stake. Even if the Nationals get the outcome they hope for of course, there’ll still be a possibility of further appeal, though the odds are long against upsetting a properly convened arb panel (which is why the original Baltimore victory, though procedural, was so notable). It’s not entirely whether the Nats’ immediate roster plans will be much affected, but Janes does conclude by noting that, “if the Nationals do get the revenue they are owed, their ability to sign elite free agents will improve, according to those familiar with the organization’s plans.”
  • There’s less at stake for the division-rival Mets, but they too face an upcoming date of note for resolving a financial matter. As Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports, the wind-down of the David Wright contract is not quite as complete as was generally supposed. The Mets stand to receive coverage for three-quarters of the $27MM left on Wright’s deal, but there’s one wrinkle. While his playing career is now over, Wright remains on the club’s 40-man roster … even as the deadline for protecting players from the Rule 5 draft approaches (November 20th). Because he was activated late last year for a brief farewell, the first 59 games of the 2019 season are, by the terms of the insurance policy, not covered. And the club still has not worked out a settlement that will enable it to trim Wright from the roster (he otherwise must remain on it for the team to collect) and thereby open up a roster spot to utilize as the organization sees fit.
  • Allegations arose recently of racist statements from key baseball operations figures with the Mariners — a worrying situation, unquestionably, the future course of which remains unclear. Regardless of how things shake out, writes Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, “the stain from this episode will cling to the organization for a long time.” Even as Stone rightly advises that it’s too soon to issue any final judgment on the specifics of the case, he explains that this matter coincides with other, preexisting issues with the organization’s management.
  • MLB has now announced the formation of a new Prospect Development Pipeline League, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports recently reported. The idea here is to present a showcase opportunity each year for top high-school draft prospects. Such chances exist already, of course, but they are run by a private entity (Perfect Game) and may not be within the means of many prospects. This new PDP development will also allow team to access physical testing and data-tracking on the participating players. That’s something of a concern to the MLBPA, per Passan, though the union is said to be on board. As he puts it, “any fear is mitigated by the recognition that the youth system, as currently constituted, is broken.”

Quick Hits: Castellanos, Astros, deGrom, Riggleman, Free Agents

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The Astros made an offer to the Tigers for right fielder Nick Castellanos prior to last July’s trade deadline, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).  Houston was known to be aggressively pursuing a big outfield bat last summer, even to the point of almost completing a trade with the Nationals for Bryce Harper, and also inquiring about Tommy Pham (then with the Cardinals) and White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Fenech suggests that Castellanos could again be a target for the Astros this offseason, and he explores in a longer piece for the Detroit Free Press that it is becoming increasingly likely that the Tigers will trade Castellanos due to a lack of extension talks between the two sides.

Castellanos would help the Astros as either a corner outfielder or, perhaps more likely, as a DH given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and the fact that incumbent Houston designated hitter Evan Gattis is hitting free agency.  Since Castellanos is only controlled through the 2019 season, he would give the Astros a short-term boost in their quest for another World Series while also not serving as a long-term block to youngsters Tyler White, Kyle Tucker, and J.D. Davis.

More from around baseball…

  • Now that Brodie Van Wagenen has gone from being Jacob deGrom’s agent to his employer as the Mets’ new GM, the transition has been “still a little confusing for me, I guess,” deGrom admitted to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.  DeGrom (and Van Wagenen’s other clients at CAA) were kept updated throughout Van Wagenen’s negotiations about joining the Mets just so nobody felt caught off-guard by the former agent’s surprising career change, and deGrom said that “I’ve had conversations with him since [the hiring], and they’ve been good.”  There haven’t yet been any talks about a contract extension between deGrom and the Mets, though most teams usually wait until later in the offseason to discuss in-house contracts.  For his part, deGrom reiterated that he enjoys playing for the Mets and would be open to talking about a long-term deal.  “If that was something that they wanted to do, and me and [my wife] Stacey felt like it was the right move for us, then we’d be willing to definitely explore that,” deGrom said.  The ace right-hander is controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season, and it will be particularly interesting to see how extension talks develop, given deGrom and Van Wagenen’s shared history.
  • In other Mets news, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently tweeted that Jim Riggleman will interview for the team’s open bench coach position sometime this week.  Riggleman served as the Reds’ interim manager for much of the 2018 season, and he would add over three decades of coaching and managerial experience to Mickey Callaway’s staff.  SNY TV’s Andy Martino offers the alternative suggestion that the Mets should consider former Phillies manager Pete Mackanin as bench coach, arguing that Mackanin is more well-versed in how to apply modern analytics to in-game management.
  • Manny Machado is the third-greatest player to ever hit free agency following his age-27 season or sooner, as calculated by The Athletic’s Cliff Corcoran (subscription required) in a 13-player ranking.  Bryce Harper, interestingly, ranks just 11th on the list.  The players were compiled in regards to what they had achieved before hitting the open market, so it’s worth noting that both Machado and Harper (who are both only 26 years old now) had a bit less seasoning than some of the slightly older names on the list.  Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds are the only names ahead of Machado on this list dotted with several all-time greats, though as with any free agent, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.  Case in point, the fourth-best player on Corcoran’s ranking is Jason Heyward, who has been a significant disappointment since signing an eight-year, $184MM deal to join the Cubs.

Quick Hits: Montoyo, Farm System Values, Mets

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While awaiting movement on the free agent front, enjoy some lighter fare from around the league…

  • New Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo followed a relatively straight path to his first managerial gig, but that doesn’t mean it was easy – or quick. The straight-shootin’, bongo-playin’ skipper was a career minor-leaguer as a player, a Triple-A Hall-of-Famer as a manager, and yet, when he finally got his opportunity as a third-base coach for Kevin Cash’s Rays, the promotions came quickly. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling charts Montoyo’s career path from the first scholarship he earned as a ballplayer from Puerto Rico through his 18 seasons managing in the Rays minor-league system. It’s a longer profile, but well worth a read for Blue Jays fans who want to get excited about what Charlie Montoyo brings to Toronto: he’s a stern developer of young talent, a keen innovator of fielding shifts and an earnest baseball lifer.
  • Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards attempts to estimate the value of entire farm systems in terms of WAR and free-agent dollars. By organizing the top 800 players in the minor leagues into tiers and making one WAR equal to $9MM based on their calculations of free agent values under the current CBA, Edwards has put together a table to show the rough free agent dollar value of each farm system. The Padres’ system, unsurprisingly, tops the charts at 50.9 Present-Day WAR worth $458MM, while the Mariners pull up the rear at 4.8 Present-Day WAR worth $43MM. Their tiering methodology and the prospect grading process is laid out in further detail here.
  • The Athletic’s Tim Britton proposes in a four-part hypothetical how the Mets could turn themselves into a contender this winter. Britton’s Plan A includes signing Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, a couple of elite relievers and investing in depth. In a purely theoretical context, there’s not much to argue with there. Practically speaking, the subtext suggests that the Mets have holes at both the top and bottom of their roster, with the left side of the infield and bullpen being particular areas of concern that could use an upgrade.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post also advocates for a winter spending spree, though he focuses more on the why than Britton, whose focus is the how. The Mets don’t have any payroll commitments beyond 2020, so taking a chance with a megacontract player like Machado isn’t inconceivable, but one player doesn’t usually swing the pendulum. To Britton’s point, there are 520 minor-league free agents available, and the Mets, as well as other teams, should take the opportunity to try and find the next Max Muncy. Other names listed as potential depth targets include Jordy Mercer, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, Drew Pomeranz or even a trade target like the Brewers’ Keon Broxton. 

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Brodie Van Wagenen

The Mets suffered through their second straight disastrous season in 2018, leading to major changes atop their baseball department. General manager Sandy Alderson stepped away in June to battle a recurrence of cancer, which proved to be the end of a tenure that was occasionally fruitful but recently disappointing.

Seeking a replacement for Alderson, the Mets mostly interviewed candidates who were already executives at the major league level. In the end, though, they made the unexpected decision to name longtime player agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their GM.

Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon were already plenty familiar with Van Wagenen, who counted big-name Mets Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes among his clients when he was with CAA Sports. Now that Van Wagenen is on the Mets’ side, Fred Wilpon believes his “high character, blend of analytics, scouting and development ideas” will help the franchise escape the doldrums.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]

The Mets started 2018 a red-hot 11-1, but they began an epic nosedive soon after and sat 16 games under .500 at the All-Star break. By then, New York’s chances of contending were out the window, and the question was whether it was going to retain the deGrom/Syndergaard duo past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. That same month, the outspoken Van Wagenen proclaimed the Mets should trade deGrom if they weren’t going to extend him. Ultimately, the Mets didn’t reach an extension with deGrom or deal him or Syndergaard. Depending on the Mets’ GM hire, both deGrom and Syndergaard could have been trade candidates this offseason. But with Van Wagenen now calling the shots, the team’s not primed to kickstart a rebuild by parting with either of its superstar hurlers. Rather, according to Van Wagenen, the Mets “will win now,” and they “expect to be in on every free agent.”

In light of Van Wagenen’s free-agent declaration, visions of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may have been dancing in the heads of the most optimistic of Mets fans. However, even though the Mets play in the majors’ biggest market and have zero dollars on their books past 2020, it’s hard to imagine them reeling in either. For one, there’s no word on how much the Mets are willing to increase their payroll over last year’s $150MM-plus Opening Day sum. Landing Harper or Machado would require a sizable jump over that figure, as the Mets’ payroll is already nearing $135MM heading into 2019. Secondly, the Mets have never even doled out a $150MM guarantee, yet both Harper and Machado could push or exceed $400MM on their next deals.

While Harper and Machado seem likely to be out of New York’s price range, the club could still come away from free agency having made significant improvements. There are more realistic targets out there, including for the Mets’ bullpen, which is a focal point for the team this offseason. Per Van Wagenen, the Mets are seeking “multiple” relievers to upgrade over last year’s bullpen – a unit that was among the majors’ worst. As things stand, right-handers Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Drew Smith are the only current Mets relievers who were remotely effective over a fair amount innings in 2018 (lefty Daniel Zamora also impressed, but he did so over a mere nine frames). There’s a lot of work ahead as a result, though there are also several proven relievers available on the open market.

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J.P. Ricciardi Leaves Mets Front Office

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The Mets announced today that special assistant to the GM J.P. Ricciardi is leaving the organization. He had served in that capacity under Sandy Alderson and remained in his role, albeit briefly, after the club hired Brodie Van Wagenen to run the baseball operations department.

Per the announcement, it was a “mutually” arrived-upon decision. COO Jeff Wilpon thanked Ricciardi for his service, while the outgoing executive expressed good wishes in his own farewell statement. It had widely been expected that Ricciardi would move on, though he remained on hand to help bring Van Wagenen aboard while leaving the door open to an ongoing relationship.

As it turns out, it seems both sides felt the fit was no longer a good one. With the news, Ricciardi will wrap up an eight-year run in New York. It’s unclear as yet what’s next for the former Blue Jays GM. Meanwhile, the situation of Mets assistant GM John Ricco — who has been in the organization for an even longer time — has yet to be resolved conclusively.

Mets Rumors: Bullpen, Maldonado, McNeil, Coaching Staff

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There’s been plenty of attention centered on the Mets’ bullpen needs this offseason, and new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen plainly indicated yesterday that his team is in the market for “multiple” bullpen pieces (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). “I can’t imagine we’d be looking to try and do a ’one and done’ situation,” said Van Wagenen. As for the type of reliever he’s looking for, Van Wagenen spoke in general terms — missing bats, controlling the strike zone — but suggested that closing experience might not be a big factor. In fact, it seems there’s no guarantee the Mets even plan to use a set closer in 2019.

“I think a lot of teams are going away from a traditional closer,” said Van Wagenen. “I think we had — in [Robert] Gsellman and [Seth] Lugo last year — a lot was asked of those two guys. They were about as good as they could be. As long as we can control their workload and not put them in situations that are over-taxing, I think both those guys can get outs at the back end of the game — the last three outs in particular. We’ll see whether other guys can be added to that mix.”

Here’s more from Queens…

  • In other Mets news, Van Wagenen says he feels the club is at least “covered” at the catching position, as Tim Healey of Newsday writes. That won’t stop the organization from looking at upgrades. In fact, the Mets have made a strong early push for glove-first backstop Martin Maldonado, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. It seems he’s the club’s top catching target in free agency, with Wilson Ramos of secondary interest. Meanwhile, pursuit of star Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto does not sound particularly realistic. The Fish are evidently not enamored of the top New York prospects, so there may not be a deal to be made. (What should Realmuto cost in a trade? Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs took a worthwhile look at the subject.)
  • Though late-blooming Jeff McNeil’s MLB audition lasted just over two months last season, he looks to have done enough to assure himself a spot in next year’s lineup. Van Wagenen said at this week’s GM Meetings that McNeil is “penciled in” as the team’s everyday second baseman for the 2019 season (Twitter link via Healey). McNeil opened eyes with a .329/.381/.471 slash through 248 plate appearances, and while he only homered three times in 63 games, he also hit 11 doubles and racked up six triples in that time. Most encouraging of all, perhaps, was the infielder’s minuscule 9.7 percent strikeout rate. Even if his .359 average on balls in play regresses, as one would expect, McNeil’s knack for putting the ball in play should help him hit for a quality average and get on base at a solid clip.
  • The Mets have some coaching vacancies to fill, including hitting coach and bench coach. Puma tweets that former D-backs hitting coach Dave Magadan is among the Mets’ candidates to replace Pat Roessler at that position, while Matt Ehalt of the North Jersey Bergen Record tweets that former Cubs/Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis could also be in the mix. Meanwhile, Jim Riggleman, who recently left the Reds after being passed over for their managerial vacancy, is a candidate to take over as Mickey Callaway’s bench coach, Ehalt adds.

AL West Rumors: Athletics, Marwin, Gurriel, Grandal, Ramos, Wakamatsu

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The Athletics will boost their payroll in 2019, but general manager David Forst tells John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle that there’s no set number following meetings with ownership. Oakland needs to address its rotation, second base and catcher situations, but Forst cautions that the A’s aren’t “going to shock anyone with huge deals.” Shea writes that while deals for Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel won’t come together for the A’s, they’ll still be active in searching for upgrades. As for second base and catcher, the latter of the two is a more pressing urge for Oakland. Forst explains that the presence of Franklin Barreto as an MLB-ready option creates less urgency at second base than at catcher, where Sean Murphy, a fellow well-regarded prospect, is a bit further from the Majors.

More from the division…

  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow discussed his team’s options for replacing utlityman Marwin Gonzalez, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart covers. Moving Yuli Gurriel around the diamond could help the club make up for the loss of flexibility. Perhaps notably, Luhnow specifically references a “post-Marwin world,” which could be telling with regard to how the organization feels about its chances to retain its most versatile player. Meanwhile, says Luhnow, he’s “looking at different options to add more to our offense.” Adding a big stick certainly seems to make sense under that roster alignment, as the club would have flexibility to get a new player into the lineup at DH, first base, or the corner outfield.
  • Speaking of the Astros, catching is another obvious area to address. The club has some level of interest in Yasmani Grandal, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter), with the Mets also showing early signs of intrigue. As the top catcher on the free-agent market, Grandal will garner interest from a wide slate of teams. At present, the Astros’ top internal option behind the dish is Max Stassi.
  • Veteran catcher Wilson Ramos is of interest to the Angels, according to Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times, with at least four other teams also in pursuit early. The fit for the bat-first backstop is perhaps not as clean in Los Angeles as it might be for some other clubs, as most of the Halos’ DH plate appearances seem already to be spoken for with Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols figuring to garner significant playing time in that capacity. Given Ramos’ durability issues, he’d be a more logical fit for an American League club with plenty of DH at-bats available, though he’ll certainly draw interest from clubs lacking in DH time and from National League clubs as well.
  • Don Wakamatsu, who spent the 2018 season as the Rangers’ bench coach before assuming the role of interim manager late in the season, will return to the organization in 2019, tweets T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Wakamatsu interviewed for the managerial opening that eventually went to Dodgers third base coach Chris Woodward, but he’ll return to the 2019 staff despite being passed over for the job in the end.

Pitching Market Notes: Kikuchi, Kimbrel, Happ, Miller, EJax, Patton

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Changes in pitching usage seem likely to shake up the player market — but how? Jayson Stark of The Athletic takes a look at the question, which will in no small part be answered in this winter’s free agent market, in a subscription piece. The broad takeaway is that back-of-the-rotation starter types will still find a market, but perhaps won’t be pursued as forcefully in years past. (It seems fair to add that such pitchers may still be valued for their ability to eat innings, but may also not be asked to gobble up quite as many in hopes that they’ll be more effective.) Meanwhile, teams will perhaps be more willing than before to pay up for highly talented pitchers with durability questions.

Here’s the latest market chatter:

  • The Phillies intend to pursue Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. It bears noting that the Philadelphia organization is also said to be interested in quite a few other appealing free agent hurlers, but it’s particularly notable that the Phils like Kikuchi after watching him pitch in his native Japan. Per a report from the Japan Times, it seems that Kikuchi’s formal posting will be processed sooner than later.
  • If there are several starters on the menu for the Phillies, it seems they could also play at the upper reaches of the relief market. Morosi tweets that they are at least looking into top available closer Craig Kimbrel. Elsewhere, while a reunion between Kimbrel and the Red Sox can’t be counted out, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that it does not seem particularly likely, either. The vibe of the post is that the Boston organization is probably not preparing to out-bid the market on the veteran closer. Though Kimbrel would obviously still have appeal at a reasonable price, Cafardo seems to hint at relatively tepid interest. For instance, he writes, “Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future.”
  • Starter J.A. Happ is a popular early name on the market. The Twins can be counted among the many teams with interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see whether the southpaw ends up signing relatively early in the winter. The lefty has been much more than a steadying presence in recent season, with intriguing peripherals that suggest he’s better than ever even at 36 years of age. You can track all the prior and future rumors on Happ right here.
  • Veteran lefty Andrew Miller is “definitely seeking [a] multiyear commitment” in free agency, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. While some have guessed Miller might seek to reestablish some value with a pillow contract, that doesn’t seem to be his preference. There’s also solid early interest. Martino (here) and Morosi (Twitter link) each tie Miller to the Mets, with Martino also noting that the Yankees also are interested. More broadly, Martino writes that the Mets are looking into the entire free agent market for relief help, including the best (and most expensive) arms available. It is difficult to guess at this point how things will turn out, particularly since the Mets have so many bullpen openings. MLBTR gave its best guess recently, though, predicting the Mets would land a pair of notable relievers. As for Miller, we expect he’ll have strong, multi-year offers to choose from.
  • The Athletics have interest in a reunion with Edwin Jackson, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The 35-year-old still managed to average better than 94 mph on his four-seam fastball and got good results from a cutter that became his most-used pitch. One would think he will have multiple suitors after throwing 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, though the interest will be tempered by less-than-exciting peripherals (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 36.4% GB) that left ERA estimators rather unimpressed by his 2018 effort (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA). The Oakland organization secured excellent results from several bounceback hurlers this year and will surely weigh retaining at least some of them, even as it also seeks new possibilities.
  • Right-hander Spencer Patton could weigh a return stateside after two campaigns in Japan, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old may have found another gear while pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars. He worked to a 2.64 ERA in his 116 innings over the past two seasons, recording 10.3 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Patton failed to hold down a big league job despite receiving some opportunities in the past, though he is said to have found some added velocity of late. It seems he’s hearing from a few interested MLB organizations as the offseason gets underway.
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