FA/Trade Rumblings: Yanks, Lynn, Odorizzi, O’s, D-backs, D. Santana
The Yankees, continuing to seek help for their rotation, have “monitored” free agent right-hander Lance Lynn‘s marketplace this offseason, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. However, a Lynn signing may be difficult for the Yankees because of their desire to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018. They have around $15MM to spend, Morosi notes, and Lynn’s next deal could pay him somewhere near that figure on an annual basis. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lynn would receive $14MM per year.
More from New York and a few other major league destinations:
- The Yankees have also shown offseason interest in Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi, as have the AL East rival Orioles, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Odorizzi would represent an affordable option for the Yankees, Orioles or any of the other teams known to be pursuing him, as the 27-year-old will earn a bit north of $6MM in 2018 – his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although, given that Odorizzi’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s debatable whether he’d be a good fit for either New York or Baltimore – both of which play their home games at home run-friendly venues.
- The Diamondbacks and Brewers discussed outfielder Domingo Santana earlier this offseason, but the teams couldn’t work out a deal, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Milwaukee was seeking starting pitching in return for Santana, per Cafardo, which you’d expect for a team that has been on the lookout for rotation help throughout the offseason. The D-backs, meanwhile, want another outfielder and have attempted to re-sign the top hitter available in free agency, J.D. Martinez, making their interest in Santana understandable. Santana won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter, so he’d obviously make far less of a dent in Arizona’s payroll than JDM.
- In addition to the previously reported Yanks, the Mets asked the Diamondbacks about utilityman Brandon Drury at some point this offseason, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Drury is still with the D-backs, though a deal could still come together before the season, Piecoro suggests. It probably won’t be with the Mets, though, considering they’ve signed third baseman Todd Frazier, outfielder Jay Bruce and infielder Jose Reyes in recent weeks.
Latest On Eduardo Nunez
Feb. 8: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com tweets that the Braves can be counted among the teams that have “serious” interest in Nunez. Atlanta has something of an opening at third base, where Johan Camargo is presently projected to serve as a bridge to prospect Austin Riley.
However, there have also been multiple reports that the Braves aren’t likely to make a big splash at the hot corner; David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution recently characterized any such addition as unlikely, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the Braves would primarily be open to a one-year deal with any third base target. Given the fairly robust level of interest in the versatile Nunez, it seems unlikely that he’d command only a one-year pact.
Feb. 6: Veteran infielder Eduardo Nunez has long seemed likely to command fairly broad interest, though his market got underway only recently since he spent the early part of the offseason recovering from a knee injury (though he was able to avoid surgery). It still seems that there’s some room for development in his market, as interest continues to percolate.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, via Twitter, the Rays have joined the division-rival Red Sox and Yankees with interest. Tampa Bay, according to Rosenthal, is generally gauging the market for right-handed bats while simultaneously fielding interest in some of its presently more expensive assets, including Jake Odorizzi and Alex Colome. In theory, either or both could be traded for younger, more controllable assets while clearing some salary for a free-agent addition such as Nunez.
Nunez has been tied most closely in recent weeks to Boston (see here and here), and Rosenthal wrote again tonight that the Red Sox have shown interest in re-signing him. But he has also been connected to both New York organizations and a host of other possible destinations given his experience at third base, shortstop, second base and in left field. While Nunez doesn’t thrive at any one position and grades out below average at several, the ability to place him at multiple spots on a short-term basis holds plenty of appeal all the same. He’s also taken his offensive game to a new level in recent seasons, slashing .296/.332/.443 in 1290 plate appearances for the Twins, Giants and Red Sox dating back to the 2015 campaign.
Of course, the Mets are no longer a reasonable possibility; per John Harper of the New York Daily News, the club believed it could’ve signed Nunez for approximately the same price it paid Todd Frazier (two years and $17MM). After some internal debate, though, the club opted for Frazier’s power and glovework at the hot corner over Nunez’s superior batting average and baserunning prowess but weaker contact profile and glovework.
NL East Notes: Mets, Cole, Jay, Braves
As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.
More from the division…
- At a recent Nationals Hot Stove event, GM Mike Rizzo plainly stated that, as things presently stand, right-hander A.J. Cole is his team’s fifth starter (link via TalkNats.com). “Our number five starter, you know, is A.J. Cole which I’m really looking forward to seeing where he’s at this year,” said Rizzo. “If you look at his numbers last year, his last seven starts were outstanding. He pitched in eleven games last year in the big leagues with eight starts and had a 3.81 ERA… Look at the other teams in our division. See where that ERA ranks on those other staffs.” Of course, fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all pegged Cole north of 5.00, due largely to a 4.7 BB/9 rate and a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 mark. One would think, too, that a strong Spring Training effort from someone such as Austin Voth or Erick Fedde could impact that plan, as could the addition of an arm via free agency or trade. At present, though, it’s certainly noteworthy that the job is Cole’s to lose. Cole figures to make the roster in some capacity, as he’s out of minor league options.
- Jon Jay “appears to be a consideration” for the Marlins in free agency, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column. Jay has some local ties, having played his college ball at Miami, though it’s not entirely clear at this point how much the Marlins are willing to spend. Heyman suggests that their payroll is south of the $85MM mark at present, though between the commitments to Wei-Yin Chen ($10MM salary + $8MM deferred signing bonus payment this June), Martin Prado ($13.5MM), Starlin Castro ($10MM), Brad Ziegler ($9MM), Junichi Tazawa ($7MM), Derek Dietrich ($2.9MM), Justin Bour ($3.4MM), J.T. Realmuto ($2.9MM) and Miguel Rojas ($1.18MM) they’re at nearly $68MM. Add in the $13MM they owe Edinson Volquez, the remaining unresolved arb case of Dan Straily and a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and it’d seem they’re still north of $90MM.
- Heyman also notes that the Braves would add a third baseman if they can find a match on a one-year deal, but they’re comfortable using Johan Camargo there for a year while waiting for prospect Austin Riley to finish off his development in the upper minors. More generally, he adds that they’re looking more at “depth” signings than anything else at this point of the offseason.
Zack Wheeler Defeats Mets In Arbitration
Mets righty Zack Wheeler has won his arbitration case against the team, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Wheeler, a client of Jet Sports Management, will earn the $1.9MM he requested rather than the $1.5MM figure the team sought.
Obviously, the arbitration panel’s decision won’t have a drastic impact on the New York balance sheet for the coming season. And it won’t mean much for the future, either, as Wheeler only has one additional season of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Still, this is a relatively substantial victory — certainly, from Wheeler’s perspective but also for a union that’s currently engaged in a larger rhetorical battle as the free agent market limps along. As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, the players have thus far taken seven of ten arbitration cases, with thirteen still left to be decided.
Wheeler, 27, returned from a long Tommy John layoff to make 17 MLB starts last year. He still has a ways to go, though, to regain his former trajectory, as he ended the year with a 5.21 ERA and 8.4 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 over 86 1/3 frames.
Mets To Designate Matt Reynolds For Assignment
The Mets have designated infielder Matt Reynolds for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster for newly signed Todd Frazier, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
The 27-year-old Reynolds (not to be confused with the veteran lefty reliever of the same name) has appeared in parts of two seasons for the Mets, hitting a combined .228/.300/.351 with four homers in 226 plate appearances. While he’s never provided much value with the bat, he’s provided some defensive versatility by appearing at all four infield positions and in both outfield corners (with the bulk of his work coming at third base and shortstop).
Reynolds has a much better track record in Triple-A, albeit in a hitter-friendly environment (Las Vegas / the Pacific Coast League). Through 1234 PAs in Triple-A, Reynolds has slashed .289/.348/.419 — including an impressive .320/.396/.484 line this past season in limited action (144 PAs).
Mets Sign Todd Frazier
WEDNESDAY: The Mets have announced the deal.
TUESDAY: Frazier will earn $8MM in 2018 and $9MM in 2019, Rosenthal tweets.
MONDAY:The Mets have struck a two-year deal with third baseman Todd Frazier, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If he passes a physical, Frazier will receive a $17MM guarantee. The deal includes a $500K assignment bonus in the event that Frazier is traded, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets. Frazier is represented by Creative Artists Agency.
MLBTR predicted this match, but expected the veteran to take home a significantly bigger contract (three years and $33MM). The market for third basemen certainly hasn’t developed as the players might have hoped. Long-time shortstop Zack Cozart moved to the hot corner upon joining the Angels on a three-year, $39MM deal. The Giants filled their own need by acquiring Evan Longoria via trade. The Yankees have an ongoing opening but little to spend if they are to stay beneath the luxury tax line.
That situation had left Frazier, Mike Moustakas, and others without as much interest as had been anticipated. Indeed, in this case, it seems that some developments had to occur before the match could come together. Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera had seemingly been set to move to third. But he indicated recently he’d actually prefer to move to second base, leading GM Sandy Alderson to note that the flexibility might open up some new avenues for the organization.
New York held an obvious draw for Frazier, a New Jersey native who got a taste of playing near his home town last year with the Yankees. As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag notes on Twitter, that geographic preference seemingly played a role in the agreement that has now come together. It may have helped the Mets land a solid player at a reasonable price.
[RELATED: Updated Mets Depth Chart]
On the one hand, Frazier has not shown of late the kind of well-above-average offensive output he did at his peak with the Reds. At his best, Frazier produced about twenty percent more offense than the average hitter, with significant home run output and even some value on the basepaths offsetting subpar on-base abilities.
Frazier has been unable to produce both significant power and a useful OBP over the past two seasons. In 2016, he tallied forty long balls but only a .302 on-base mark. Last season, he rode a personal-best 14.4% walk rate (and personal-low 9.3% swinging-strike rate) to a .344 OBP but managed only 27 dingers and a .428 slugging percentage. While Frazier still generated a strong .215 isolated slugging mark, his batting average (.213) and batting average on balls in play (.226) remained at the sorts of low levels he has sported in recent campaigns. (For what it’s worth, there may well be at least some poor fortune in Frazier’s lowly BABIP; he carried a .352 xwOBA that lagged his .340 wOBA in 2017.)
Even if the Mets can anticipate only slightly above-average offensive work from Frazier, the deal holds plenty of promise. He has long graded as a quality performer with the glove and turned in one of his best-ever seasons in 2017. Both DRS (+10) and UZR (+6.7) credited him with saving plenty of runs as a full-time player at third base. Frazier also has an excellent track record of durability, having suited up for an average of 154 games annually since the start of 2013.
As an above-average regular for each of the past six seasons, Frazier surely anticipated a bigger contract entering the winter. At the same time, his earning power was always limited by his age. The somewhat late-blooming slugger will turn 32 years of age in a week. With teams seemingly more hesitant than ever to lock in commitments to aging players, and the league as a whole hewing younger, Frazier always seemed unlikely to drive a massive bidding war.
Still, this contract seems likely to deliver the Mets some quality infield value, much as Cabrera did on a similar contract (two years, $18.5MM plus an option that was exercised for 2018). While Frazier could conceivably also spend time at first base, the likelihood is he’ll be the primary third baseman. In that sense, perhaps, the move all but formalizes the already evident fact that the chronically injured David Wright is unlikely to factor again at the hot corner for New York.
As he reunites with his former Cincinnati teammate Jay Bruce, Frazier will hope to be part of a resurgent Mets roster. The club has brought back most of the band despite a disappointing 2017 campaign, with a few modifications. New York has now filled its most glaring needs and certainly has the talent to compete in the coming season, though the organization still faces its fair share of uncertainty — particularly in the injury department.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Market Notes: Orioles, Lynn, Dickey, Braves
The Orioles have recently begun talks with free agent righty Lance Lynn, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), though the report also suggests that there’s no particular momentum toward an agreement. It’s still anyone’s guess how the Baltimore rotation will be filled out. Despite entering the winter with three open starting jobs, the O’s only 40-man rotation addition to this point is Michael Kelly, a minor-league free agent who has yet to appear in the majors. With Lynn’s own market still largely undeveloped, it’s not surprising to hear of this link, though the question remains whether the Orioles will really open the pocketbook for a starter.
- Of course, other organizations are arguably in a similar position with regard to Lynn. Even taking a pessimistic view of his future, he profiles as a quality back-end starter that would upgrade just about every rotation in baseball. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argued recently that the Cardinals ought to be ready to grab Lynn — at least, if he can be had for a cheaper-than-expected contract. A similar sentiment has been batted around by Mets writers. (See, e.g., this post from John Harper of the New York Daily News and this Twitter exchange between MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal.) No doubt an argument for the pursuit of Lynn could also be constructed for quite a few other teams, which is the sort of reasoning that supports at least some reason to believe that he and other mid-level free agents can still find significant contracts.
- Veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey has not completely ruled out a return to the hill in 2018, Rosenthal also notes. All indications to date have been that Dickey would likely retire. But it seems there’s still at least an outside possibility he’ll pitch at 43 years of age. The Braves declined a club option over Dickey despite the fact that he turned in a productive 2017 season, throwing 190 innings of 4.26 ERA ball.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution breaks down the current Braves thinking at third base. Many have wondered why Atlanta did not beat the offer made by the division-rival Mets for third baseman Todd Frazier, but O’Brien notes that the team would likely have had to dangle quite a bit more money to lure Frazier from his home town to play for an organization with a less experienced roster. Of even greater interest, O’Brien says the Braves front office likely doesn’t have much free cash to work with, making a pursuit of Mike Moustakas unlikely as well. The team’s contract swap with the Dodgers moved payroll forward to the 2018 balance sheet, so the odds are at this point that the club will simply allow its array of young infielders to sink or swim in the majors.
Mets Could Pursue Rotation Addition
After being quiet for much of the offseason, the Mets have been more active in recent weeks, bring Jay Bruce back to Queens on a three-year deal and reportedly agreeing to a two-year pact with Todd Frazier. And now that they’ve satisfied their needs in the infield and outfield for the most part, the team could turn its focus to the starting pitching. Both MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and the New York Daily News’ John Harper reported Tuesday that the Mets could look to the open market for some support in the rotation.
DiComo suggests that the Mets are keeping an eye out for rotation help but don’t consider it as much of a priority as an infielder was, whereas Harper characterizes the need a bit more aggressively, writing that a source told him that the Mets are “serious” about looking at rotation possibilities. Meanwhile, the Record’s Matt Ehalt suggests that if the team adds a rotation arm, it’ll likely be an affordable source of innings rather than a top starter with draft compensation attached (Twitter links). Ehalt also notes that a lefty reliever is another area of focus for the Mets.
Starting pitching was a strength during the Mets’ 2015 World Series run, as the team rode strong performances from Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey plus veterans Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon to an NL pennant that season. Steven Matz made his big league debut that season as well and impressed in six starts.
However, the Mets’ rotation was in shambles for much of the 2017 season, with Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz, Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo among the rotation pieces that missed significant time due to injury. Only deGrom held up and made a full season’s worth of starts, logging 201 innings over the course of 31 trips to the hill.
All of the team’s rotation options that were limited in 2017 are expected to be healthy for Spring Training, but the general lack of stability surrounding them is an unequivocal cause for concern. Harvey has undergone both Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet surgery in recent years. Matz’s career, both in the minors and Majors, has been punctuated by shoulder and elbow troubles. Wheeler was torched for an ERA north of 5.00 in his first season back after two years lost to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard pitched just 30 1/3 innings last year due to a torn lat muscle.
The question for the Mets, at this point, is one of how much ownership will be willing to spend to bolster the starting corps after already signing Frazier, Bruce, Anthony Swarzak and Jose Reyes this offseason. The Mets still project for a payroll that comes in south of last year’s Opening Day mark, and as was the case in 2017, they’ll recoup $15MM or so of the $20MM owed to David Wright this year by virtue of the insurance policy on his contract (assuming that Wright once again is relegated to the 60-day DL for much, if not all of the season).
Harper, within his column, opines that Lance Lynn would be an ideal fit for the Mets, though there’s been no serious indication to this point that the Mets would play for any of the top four starters on the market, particularly those wiho rejected a qualifying offer. In addition to Ehalt’s report, GM Sandy Alderson recently expressed reluctance to pursue Mike Moustakas in part due to draft compensation, and the team ultimately elected to bring Frazier into the fold instead.
While Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish aren’t in the fold (Darvish due to general price tag, the others due to price and draft compensation), the market for starters has scarcely moved at all this winter, so Alderson & Co. have plenty of alternatives. Other available options for the club would include Jaime Garcia, Andrew Cashner and old friend Jason Vargas. Bounceback candidates still exist in the form of Chris Tillman and Hector Santiago, while less exciting but durable innings eaters still available include Ricky Nolasco and Wade Miley.
NL Notes: Moustakas, Rockies, Wright
Third baseman Mike Moustakas ranks among most prominent victims of this year’s abnormal offseason, having not landed a contract three months after hitting free agency as one of the top players available. It’s unlikely Moustakas’ next deal will come courtesy of the Cardinals, according to Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, even though they’ve been in on third basemen this offseason (trade targets Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson in specific). It appears the Cards will use Jedd Gyorko and Matt Carpenter at third, per Ortiz, who adds that the team has informed Carpenter he’ll fill a super-utility role. The Cards are the second potential landing spot for Moustakas that has been downplayed in the past few days; Mets GM Sandy Alderson suggested on Thursday that a match with Moustakas didn’t seem likely for a variety of reasons.
Some more notes from around the Senior Circuit…
- With the Rockies’ control over third baseman Nolan Arenado, center fielder Charlie Blackmon and second baseman DJ LeMahieu dwindling, it’s imperative infield prospects Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers and young outfielder Raimel Tapia pan out, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes. The Rockies have turned away trade interest in McMahon and Rodgers, Saunders reports, indicating they’re highly confident in the pair. McMahon is seemingly the more likely of the two to make an impact in 2018, as he could emerge as the Rockies’ starting first baseman. He’s also capable of playing third and second, both of which will open up soon if Arenado and LeMahieu depart within the next couple years. Rodgers is a shortstop, but with Trevor Story there, he might also be an option at the keystone. Regardless, the Rockies believe their young talent will help them withstand any potential losses in free agency. “Our job is to not worry about Charlie, Nolan or DJ. Our goal is churning out impactful, major-league players from year to year,” director of player development Zach Wilson told Saunders. “We think we have a chance to do that for a really long time.”
- The Mets will be able to place David Wright on the 60-day disabled list as soon as Feb. 14, notes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, which could be advantageous given the glut of free agents that remain unsigned and the number of players that’ll be jettisoned from 40-man rosters throughout the league as free agents (presumably) begin to sign at some point in the coming weeks. New York can’t and won’t simply release Wright, as doing so would cancel their insurance policy on the remaining $47MM of his contract (which reportedly covers 75 percent of his salary) and because Wright continues to strive for an improbable comeback. If Wright ultimately decides he’s no longer able to continue his career, the Mets and the insurance company could work out a settlement, but that doesn’t seem likely for the current season, it seems. Wright is owed $47MM through 2020 — $20MM in 2018, $15MM in 2019 and $12MM in 2020.
NL Notes: Cubs, Mets, Nunez, Pirates
Checking in on the National League…
- The Cubs are “still looking to add depth” to their pitching staff, general manager Jed Hoyer tells Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “That’s an annual thing you think about. You prepare for injuries even if some years you go unscathed,” he continued. Starting depth does appear to be an issue at the moment for the Cubs, who lack battle-tested options beyond their current projected rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery. Of the other healthy starting possibilities on their 40-man roster, only Eddie Butler brings significant experience in the majors, though he hasn’t been particularly successful. Of course, the Cubs would help their cause quite a bit by signing Yu Darvish (who remains on their radar) or bringing in another high-profile starter via free agency or trade.
- The Mets are reportedly interested in free agent infielder Eduardo Nunez, but Mike Puma of the New York Post wonders (on Twitter) if the organization’s hitting philosophy may ultimately prevent a signing from occurring. The club “emphasizes selectivity,” Puma points out, and that’s not the case with Nunez. Among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, he had the seventh-lowest walk percentage (3.7) and the 14th-highest chase rate (39.6 percent).
- Left-hander Josh Smoker went from the Mets to the Pirates in a trade this week, and it didn’t surprise the reliever that he ended up in Pittsburgh (via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “I kind of had a feeling that Pittsburgh might have some interest because in the past I had heard rumblings that Pittsburgh had always had a little bit of interest in me,” Smoker said. “I know it’s a team that needs some left-handers, too.” Indeed, Smoker became just the fourth southpaw on the Bucs’ 40-man roster. While Smoker has only managed a 5.02 ERA across 71 2/3 career innings, he’s hopeful renowned Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage will be able to help him break out with his new team. After the trade, Smoker discussed Searage with his friend, former Pirates reliever Matt Capps, who offered praise for the pitching guru.