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MLBTR Poll: Grade The Edwin Encarnacion Swap

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The Yankees struck early over the weekend, lining up a deal with the Mariners to bring in slugger Edwin Encarnacion. It’ll reportedly cost the club a pitching prospect (Juan Then) and something like $7MM in salary obligations (approximately half of the remainder owed by the M’s this season and on a 2020 option buyout).

(I’d like to crow over the fact that I prognosticated EE as the next player to be traded in a recent chat. Unfortunately, I was also a bit dismissive in discussing the Yankees as a possible suitor.)

It’s hard not to love the potential look of the Yanks’ lineup with Encarnacion added to the mix. He was obliterating opposing pitching to the tune of a .241/.356/.531 slash line and 21 home runs in Seattle. With fellow righty sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the mend, to say nothing of the players already on the active roster at the moment, the Bronx Bombers could have an otherworldly array of power bats down the stretch.

There’s certainly an argument that the New York organization should see starting pitching as its top priority. And that may well be the case. Adding EE hardly precludes further moves to add arms. The Yankees did take on luxury tax obligations and creep closer to the highest penalty level with this swap. But the deal also could help free the team to utilize young outfielder Clint Frazier in an ensuing move.

The Yanks hold the edge in the AL East at the moment, but it’s a precarious hold. The Rays seem to be here to stay while the Red Sox have steadily moved back into range. Adding Encarnacion provides an immediate boost, protects against further injury issues or setbacks, and creates immense lineup upside. On the other hand, it’s a costly move on an older player who joins a collection of defensively limited sluggers with Luke Voit already ensconced at first base and Judge & Stanton perhaps warranting some DH time when they return.

How do you grade the move? (Poll link for app users.)

Yankees Option Clint Frazier

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The Yankees have optioned outfielder Clint Frazier to Triple-A, tweets Kristie Ackert of the NY Daily News. Frazier’s demotion will clear a spot on the active roster for the newly-acquired Edwin Encarnacion.

The demotion represents the continuation of a rocky Yankees stint for the 24-year-old Frazier, who has long been the victim of roster crunch despite adequate performance at the MLB level. To be sure, Frazier has not disappointed in his MLB career, which has spanned parts of three seasons: his career OPS sits at a tidy .793, including a career-best .855 this season. His outfield defense has certainly lagged behind the bat, but defensive struggles are not uncommon for young outfielders, and Frazier has demonstrated that his bat-first profile can play at the Major League level.

Despite that promise, Frazier has managed to appear in just 106 MLB games since debuting in 2017. In years past, Frazier has been blocked by the Yankees’ prolific outfielders, but the team’s injury woes have allowed Frazier to receive 186 ABs in 2019. At this point, though, it appears that time is running out on that expanded opportunity.

The acquisition of Encarnacion, coupled with the impending return of outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, has made it clear that Frazier’s opportunities with the big league club will be even further limited for the remainder of the season. With Encarnacion’s addition to the lineup, it appears that the most likely lineup configurations will feature Stanton and Judge joining Aaron Hicks in the outfield, leaving Frazier without a spot in the starting nine.

With that in mind, it would appear that Frazier’s best chance to catch on in the Bronx would come as a depth outfielder; however, a player with Frazier’s combination of youth, performance, and prospect pedigree would perhaps provide more value to the contending Yankees as a trade chip, especially considering the presence of Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin, each of whom has provided serviceable—if unspectacular—outfield production in the absence of the Bombers’ stars.

As a result of his limited opportunities, Frazier has often been the subject of trade discussions, a trend that will no doubt continue given the Yankees’ need for—and interest in—starting pitching. Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer, and Zack Wheeler have all been linked to the Yankees, and Detroit’s Matt Boyd has also drawn attention as a trade candidate. Of course, it remains to be seen just how much the Yankees could fetch for Frazier, but it seems that he could be a key piece in a trade to bolster the rotation. Of course, there’s no indication that Frazier’s demotion is the precursor to such a move, but speculation will certainly abound as trade season approaches.

Yankees To Activate Giancarlo Stanton On Tuesday

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Giancarlo Stanton is set to make his return to the Yankees lineup, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey) that Stanton is on track to be activated from the injured list on Tuesday.  The slugger is winding up a Triple-A rehab stint and will join the Yankees in the midst of an important AL East series against the Rays.

Stanton played in only three games before originally hitting the IL with a biceps injury.  While that issue was seemingly cleared up in a few weeks’ time, Stanton then suffered a left shoulder strain and then some calf tightness that extended his stint on the injured list to two and a half months.  These maladies spoiled what had been a pretty solid run of health for Stanton, who played in 317 of a possible 324 games in 2017-18 following a more checkered injury history earlier in his career.

Despite lacking Stanton and seemingly half their roster to injury at one point or another, the Yankees enter the day with a 42-27 record and a hold on first place in the AL East (albeit only a half-game ahead of Tampa Bay).  With Aaron Judge also closing in on a return and Edwin Encarnacion newly acquired from the Mariners, New York is on the verge of adding three of the sport’s very best power bats to an already-impressive lineup.  Encarnacion’s addition means that the DH spot will largely be spoken for, though the Yankees surely have a plan to keep Stanton fresh after his long layoff rather than run him out in left field every single game.

Zack Wheeler Drawing Interest

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To state the obvious, this season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Mets. They’re the owners of a 34-36 record, staring at a 5 1/2-game deficit in their division and a five-game mark for the National League’s second wild card. First-time general manager Brodie Van Wagenen boldly suggested over the winter the Mets would take on all comers in 2019, but his roster has instead spun its wheels for a couple months.

Barring a turnaround leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, the Mets may have to consider selling off players they deem nonessential to their future – perhaps to boost an inadequate farm system. As things stand, the Mets aren’t giving up on buying, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. If the team does a 180 on that mindset, though, it’ll have an intriguing trade chip in starter Zack Wheeler. The right-hander’s on many teams’ radars, including the crosstown rival Yankees’, according to Heyman.

The 29-year-old Wheeler’s in his final season of team control, in which he’s making a reasonable $5.975MM. The fact that he’s affordable enhances his trade value, though this hasn’t been a banner contract year in terms of results for Wheeler.

After missing most of 2015-17 because of injuries, the former Tommy John surgery patient returned last year to fire 182 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP ball. This season, though, his 4.87 ERA through 88 2/3 frames ranks eighth worst among 81 qualified major league starters. Along the way, Wheeler’s average exit velocity against has gone from 84.7 mph to 87.8 mph and his hard-hit rate has risen from 27.1 percent to 34.4 since 2018, according to Statcast. Better contact against Wheeler has led to more balls leaving the yard. Wheeler yielded home runs on a paltry 8.1 percent of fly balls a year ago, but he’s now at 14.1.

Despite the red flags in Wheeler’s production, there are clear reasons for hope. With a 97 mph average fastball and a sinker that typically clocks in at 96, he remains one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. Wheeler’s velo has helped him increase his strikeout rate from 8.84 per nine in 2018 to a career-high 10.05 this season, while his swinging-strike percentage (11.2) and walk rate (2.64) also represent personal bests. Although Wheeler’s not getting as many ground balls as he did earlier in his career, his GB percentage (44.4) is still above average, as is his 12 percent infield fly rate. Unsurprisingly, the gap between his weighted on-base average against/expected wOBA (.307/.296) indicates he has deserved somewhat better to this point.

While this season hasn’t gone to Wheeler’s liking, it seems fair to say he’s an above-average major league starter. He’d therefore be one of the best starters on the block this summer if the Mets were to put him there, trailing Matthew Boyd but perhaps ranking in the vicinity of Marcus Stroman and Madison Bumgarner. However, it’ll be a moot point if the Mets decide to retain Wheeler, which seems to be their intention as of now. Plenty can change in the next month and a half, though.

Poll: Are Yankees AL Favorites?

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We’re still a month and a half from the July 31 trade deadline, but the arms race has already begun in the American League. The Yankees, one of the AL’s premier teams, pulled off a stunning move Saturday in acquiring prolific slugger Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners for young pitching prospect Juan Then. Including the 21 home runs he has already racked up this season, no major leaguer has hit more HRs than Encarnacion’s 284 dating back to his 2012 breakout with the Blue Jays.

It’s clear the Yankees are trying to construct a super lineup, and it’s likely that’s what they’ll have when injured star outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return from their long absences in the coming weeks. A full-strength Yankees lineup will include Encarnacion at designated hitter, Judge in right field, Stanton in left, Aaron Hicks in center, Gary Sanchez at catcher, Luke Voit at first, Gleyber Torres at second, Didi Gregorius at short and DJ LeMahieu at third. If you’re an opposing pitcher set to face that lineup, you may hope for a torrential downpour.

On the other hand, the Yankees’ starting staff looks far from foolproof, as noted earlier this week. Injured ace Luis Severino should be in position to finally make his season debut after the All-Star break. Even if that happens, the Yankees will need slumping second and third starters James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka to right themselves. The club also has to find answers behind those two, as Domingo German (now injured), CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ haven’t been able to provide any of late. Don’t be surprised if general manager Brian Cashman, after acquiring Encarnacion, makes another significant trade for starting pitching as a result.

The Yankees’ bullpen, meanwhile, doesn’t need a lot of help. Their relief corps hasn’t matched some of the “best ever” talk that was out there entering the season, but it remains a strength. And the group will become all the more formidable if Dellin Betances, yet another injured standout, returns sometime in the summer. Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman forming Voltron at the end of games would certainly make life easier on the Yankees’ rotation, regardless of whether the team adds a starter from outside.

At 42-27, the Yankees don’t carry the AL’s best record – not by a long shot. Both Minnesota and Houston are five games ahead of the Yankees, and the Astros have a few of their own cornerstones mending from injuries in Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.

Let’s also not discount two of the Yankees’ division rivals, Tampa Bay and reigning World Series champion Boston. The Rays are just a half-game behind the Yankees and, for what it’s worth, own a far better run differential (plus-96 to plus-65). Furthermore, they could get back an important in-season reinforcement in budding ace Tyler Glasnow, out since May with a forearm strain, as early as next month.

The Red Sox don’t look as if they’ll approach last year’s 108-win outburst, and they have 5 1/2 games to make up on the Yankees. However, the sleeping giant in Boston may finally be waking up, having won four in a row. The Sox also own a plus-47 run differential that’s not quite befitting of their 38-34 record, and they’re another team with an injured starter (Nathan Eovaldi) who may return soon to complete its rotation.

Considering the presences of the Twins, Astros, Rays and Red Sox – not to mention a few other playoff contenders – the Yankees have their work cut out for them if they’re going to earn their first pennant since 2009. Plus, any or all of those teams could bolster themselves by the deadline. The Yankees, though, have managed one of the game’s top records thus far without many (or any) contributions from Encarnacion, Judge, Stanton – three players about to grace their lineup on a daily basis – and may see Severino and Betances return. With that in mind, is New York the favorite in the AL?

(Poll link for app users)

Yankees Acquire Edwin Encarnacion

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11:49pm: The trade has been officially announced by both teams.  Jake Barrett was moved to the Yankees’ 60-day IL to make a 40-man roster spot for Encarnacion.

7:50pm: The Yankees have acquired first baseman/DH Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Right-handed pitching prospect Juan Then is headed to the M’s in the trade, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that Then is the only player being acquired in exchange for Encarnacion.

According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), the two teams are “essentially splitting the money” owed to Encarnacion for the remainder of his contract.  The slugger has roughly $9.25MM left on the $20MM owed to him this season, after accounting for the $5MM being covered by the Rays as per the terms of the three-team trade that brought Encarnacion to Seattle from Cleveland back in December.  Encarnacion also has a $5MM buyout of a $20MM club option for the 2020 season.

The Yankees had a projected luxury tax number of slightly over $227.6MM prior to the trade, as estimated by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.  The addition of Encarnacion will all but guarantee that New York exceeds the second-highest luxury tax threshold ($226MM), though it still keeps them below the maximum penalty threshold of $246MM, as Joel Sherman tweets that Encarnacion’s luxury tax hit is a modest $3.4MM.  Should the Yankees exceed that $246MM figure, they’d be taxed at a 62.5 percent surcharge on the overage of every dollar beyond $206MM, plus their top draft pick in 2020 would be dropped by ten slots.

All in all, it’s a more than reasonable price for the Yankees to pay to add the American League’s leading home run hitter to their lineup.  After going through a bit of a down year by his standards in 2018 (though still producing a 115 wRC+), the 36-year-old Encarnacion was back in top form in Seattle, with a .241/.356/.531 slash line and 21 homers over 289 plate appearances.  Depending on how things go over the rest of the season, it’s also quite possible that the Yankees could pick up Encarnacion’s option for 2020, making him more than just a rental player.

With Encarnacion now in the fold to share first base and DH duties with Luke Voit, the Yankees have further boosted their already-strong lineup to near-Murderer’s Row levels when everyone is healthy.  Encarnacion now joins an everyday mix that will include Voit, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez, not to mention Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, and Gio Urshela available off the bench.  With this much depth on hand, it increases the chance that Frazier (who isn’t far removed from top-50 prospect status) could potentially become an expendable piece to acquire starting pitching at the deadline.

Encarnacion’s revived production only made him more of a trade chip for a Mariners team that continues to drastically overhaul its roster, and is willing to absorb salary to accommodate these trades.  Daniel Vogelbach has already emerged as an everyday first baseman/DH in Seattle, leaving the Mariners free to deploy Ryon Healy in the other slot when he returns from the IL, or the M’s can rotate multiple players through the DH role to keep everyone fresh.

Mariners fans may question the relative lack of a return for a decorated slugger like Encarnacion, though as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently examined, the veteran’s market was relatively slim.  He wasn’t really an ideal fit for everyday first base duty, which eliminated most NL teams, and even the American League market was relatively limited simply because there aren’t many teams still in realistic playoff contention.  Adding Encarnacion might have put the Red Sox over the maximum tax threshold for the second straight year, though for the Astros and even the small-payroll Rays, they could regret not topping the relatively small amount of money and prospect capital it apparently would’ve cost to pry Encarnacion away from a Mariners club that was open to offers.

Then, 19, is a familiar name for Mariners fans, as Seattle originally signed Then as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2016.  The Yankees acquired Then in November 2017 as part of the deal that sent Nick Rumbelow to the M’s, and MLB.com ranked Then as the 27th-best prospect in New York’s farm system.  Then has yet to pitch this season, but has a 2.67 ERA, 3.77 K/BB rate, and 7.9 K/9 over his first 111 1/3 innings as a professional.  According to MLB.com’s scouting report, Then doesn’t have a true plus pitch but “has a high floor” because of strong fastball command, a promising curveball, and “a changeup that’s advanced for his age.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Yankees’ Rotation Looks Like A Problem

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Although the Yankees haven’t gotten an inning from injured ace Luis Severino this year, their rotation has done a decent job weathering his absence to this point. As of this writing, the Yankees’ starting staff ranks 10th in the majors in K/BB ratio, 12th in ERA and 13th in fWAR, and has helped the injury-laden club to a 41-26 start and a half-game lead in the American League East. While most of the unit’s numbers are passable in the aggregate, it’s just 19th in the game in FIP and has begun faltering of late.

Without Severino, who’s out for at least another month because of a lat strain, left-hander James Paxton stands out as the Yankees’ No. 1 starter. The former Mariner got off to a white-hot start this year before going to the injured list May 5 with a left knee issue. Paxton hasn’t been good since then, having allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits and seven walks (with 12 strikeouts) in 11 1/3 innings, though he still boasts strong numbers on the season. The 30-year-old’s not worth worrying about from the Yankees’ perspective if he’s healthy, but as someone who has never thrown more than 160 1/3 innings in a season, it’s anyone’s guess whether Paxton will hold up into the fall.

Like Paxton, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka is someone whose rotation spot is etched in stone. But Tanaka has also declined of late, in part because his signature splitter hasn’t been up to par in 2019. That said, considering Tanaka owns a 3.58 ERA/4.01 FIP in 83 innings this year, his presence is hardly a detriment to New York’s rotation.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, solutions are harder to find after Paxton and Tanaka. Domingo German, who stepped into the Yankees’ rotation to replace Severino, looked like a breakout star through mid-May. The 26-year-old has come crashing down since then, though, and has been on the IL since June 9 with a left hip flexor strain. German has logged an ugly 5.74 ERA/5.25 FIP over his most recent five starts, despite his 11.14 K/9 against 1.69 BB/9 during that 26 2/3-inning span. Beyond that, it’s worth noting German is already nearing his innings total from all of 2018, having tossed 70 (24 fewer than last year), and has never reached 125 in a professional season.

Worsening the Yankees’ situation, aging lefties J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia have each fallen short of expectations this season. Happ, whom the Yankees re-signed to a two-year, $34MM contract over the winter, has managed a 4.66 ERA/5.34 FIP through 75 1/3 frames. According to Baseball Savant, the 36-year-old Happ’s hard-hit rate against has risen by almost 8 percent since last season, while his strikeout rate has fallen by nearly 7 percent.

The soon-to-retire Sabathia, meanwhile, isn’t having the final season he or the Yankees envisioned. The potential Hall of Famer has pitched to a playable 4.42 ERA, yet his 5.98 FIP is unsightly, and he has only completed six innings on two occasions. Moreover, Sabathia’s groundball rate is 6.5 percent below his career mark, which has helped lead to a massive increase in home runs against. Sabathia yielded homers on 11.7 percent of fly balls in 2018, but the number has climbed to 20.8 this season. While Sabathia reinvented himself over the previous couple seasons as a soft-contact specialist, hitters have increased their hard-hit rate against him by better than 5 percent since a year ago.

Barring outside acquisitions, it appears the suddenly slumping Yankees are stuck with their current alignment of starters for the time being. Along with Severino and German, the Yankees are missing Jordan Montgomery (out for the year because of Tommy John surgery) and Jonathan Loaisiga (strained shoulder). Those injuries have depleted the Yankees’ depth, which has left them to deploy reliever Chad Green as an opener to underwhelming results.

In positive news for the Yankees, Severino’s as good a reinforcement as you could possibly land during the season. On paper, he’d form a more-than-capable trio with Paxton and Tanaka. It would be risky to expect Severino to immediately return in top form, though, meaning it would behoove the club to add at least one new starter before the July 31 trade deadline. It seems fair to expect any of Madison Bumgarner, Matthew Boyd or Marcus Stroman to end up in a Yankees uniform by then. Acquiring one of those three could make the difference in the Yankees holding off the Rays and Red Sox in the AL East or having to overcome a one-game playoff for the third straight season. The way the Yankees’ current starters are trending, it’s going to be difficult to keep their rivals at bay even as injured stars come back on the offensive side.

Aaron Judge To Begin Rehab Assignment

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The Yankees announced Friday that right fielder Aaron Judge will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre tonight. Additionally, Giancarlo Stanton’s rehab assignment will be moved up from Class-A Tampa to Triple-A as well.

It’s a breath of fresh air for a Yankees team that has been without its top two sluggers for nearly the entire season. Stanton has been on the injured list since April 1, while Judge was placed there alongside him 20 days later. The two have combined for just 23 games and 104 plate appearances between them, although that hasn’t stopped the Yankees from putting together the fourth-best record in the Majors as they jostle with the Rays for the AL East lead. The now-looming return of both Judge and Stanton only strengthens their position within the division.

Clint Frazier has had some misadventures patrolling right field in absence of Judge and Stanton, while the Yankees have turned to a host of others for shorter glimpses in right field and at designated hitter. Mike Tauchman, Kendrys Morales, Cameron Maybin and Mike Ford have all seen some time in one or both of those spots as New York has capably patched over the lineup in absence of arguably its two biggest bats.

There’s still no official timetable on the return of either Judge or Stanton. Given that Stanton’s already played a pair of games in Tampa, he seems likelier to return first, but it stands to reason that both will be back in the Yankees’ lineup within the next couple of weeks (barring any setbacks).

Phillies Acquire Brad Miller

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The Phillies have announced that they have acquired veteran utilityman Brad Miller from the Yankees for cash considerations.

Miller will be joining his fourth different team of the 2019 season, following an offseason minor league contract with the Dodgers, and then subsequent minors pacts with the Indians and Yankees.  Miller appeared in 13 big league games for the Tribe, and has been tearing up Triple-A pitching in the Yankees’ farm system, with a massive .994 OPS over 163 PA for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

While he did hit 30 homers for the Rays in 2016, Miller hasn’t been able to provide much consistency over 2545 career plate appearances for Seattle, Tampa, Milwaukee, and Cleveland.  His career .240/.313/.409 slash line grades him as an exactly league-average 100 OPS+ for his career, though he’s had notably more success against right-handed pitching.  This will provide Philadelphia with a sorely-needed left-handed bat for their bench mix.

Miller isn’t known as much of a defender no matter the position, though he has experience at all seven infield and outfield positions over his seven-year career.  He has exclusively worked in the infield over the last three seasons, however, so Miller could handle those duties while Jay Bruce and Scott Kingery see more time in the Phils’ troubled outfield.

With Miller now in the fold and Roman Quinn returning from the injured list this weekend, the Phillies are looking at a significant shakeup of their bench.  Miller’s presence could make one of Sean Rodriguez or Phil Gosselin redundant, while Quinn could supplant Nick Williams as the primary backup outfielder.

Yankees Place Kendrys Morales On Injured List

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The Yankees announced Thursday that they’ve placed first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales on the 10-day injured list due to a strained left calf. The Yankees, who optioned lefty Stephen Tarpley to Triple-A last night, have recalled outfielder Mike Tauchman and left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. from Triple-A as well.

Morales, 35, hasn’t hit well since being acquired from the Athletics. He’s stumbled to a .177/.320/.242 line through 75 plate appearances with New York while splitting first base/DH duties with Luke Voit. Morales looked like he could be at risk of losing his spot with the Yankees when Didi Gregorius returned and the team needed to open a 40-man roster spot. However, the organization thought enough of the veteran Morales that they instead opted to move Troy Tulowitzki to the 60-day IL and option Thairo Estrada to Triple-A instead.

It’s been a rough season overall for Morales, who has followed up a solid 2018 season at the plate (.249/.331/.438) with a .194/.313/.253 effort in 201 plate appearances between Oakland and the Bronx. The IL placement will keep him in the team’s plans for the time being, but Morales will need to eventually start swinging a better bat if he’s to stick around on a Yankees roster that should soon be getting several key sluggers as they return from their own IL stints.

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